Conference Paper

Solar Photovoltaics - A Driving Force towards 100% Renewable Energy for India and SAARC

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Abstract

The developing region of SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) is home to a large number of people living below the poverty line. In future, providing affordable, access to all, reliable, low to zero carbon electricity in this region will be the main aim of electricity generation. A cost optimal 100% renewable energy based system is simulated for this region for the year 2030 on an hourly resolved basis for an entire year. The region was divided into 16 sub-regions and three different scenarios were set up based on the level of high voltage direct current (HVDC) grid connections. The results obtained for a total system levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) showed a decrease from 71.6 €/MWh in a decentralized to 67.2 €/MWh for a centralized grid connected scenario. An additional scenario was simulated to show the benefits of integrating industrial gas production and seawater reverse osmosis desalination demand which was reflected as the system cost decreased by 5% and the total electricity generation decreased by 1%. The results show that a 100% renewable energy based system could be a reality in the SAARC region with the cost assumptions used in this research and it may be more cost competitive than the nuclear and fossil carbon capture and storage (CCS) alternatives.

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... A detailed description of the model can be found in Bogdanov and Breyer [30]. Detailed information of the input data used for the model is given in Bogdanov and Breyer [30] and additional calculations related to geothermal energy potential, desalination water demand [32] and industrial gas demand data are described in [33]. ...
... Other research aggregates the sub-regions, so that an integrated analysis can be carried out for Europe-Eurasia-MENA [39] and East Asia [40], all in full hourly resolution and interconnected. The nine major world regions are: Europe [41], Eurasia [42], Middle East Northern Africa (MENA) [43], Sub-Saharan Africa [44], India/SAARC [33], Northeast Asia [30], Southeast Asia and the Pacific Rim [40,45], North America [46] and South America [47]. Solar PV is represented in the model by groundmounted optimally tilted and single-axis tracking PV power plants and prosumer rooftop systems, enhanced by batteries in the cases of financial attractiveness for the prosumers. ...
... Some scenarios give some insights, but detailed information is missing for all scenarios. Nevertheless, the LUT Energy system model delivers detailed cost results, which are presented in summary in Table III and in more detail in the respective publications for the nine major world regions [30,33,[40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47]. One of the most interesting results of the 100% RE system modelling with 2030 assumptions is the low cost of the energy systems around the world. ...
Article
The global energy system has to be transformed towards high levels of sustainability in order to comply with the COP21 agreement. Solar photovoltaic (PV) offers excellent characteristics to play a major role in this energy transition. The key objective of this work is to investigate the role of PV in the global energy transition based on respective scenarios and a newly introduced energy transition model developed by the authors. A progressive group of energy transition scenarios present results of a fast growth of installed PV capacities and a high energy supply share of solar energy to the total primary energy demand in the world in the decades to come. These progressive energy transition scenarios can be confirmed. For the very first time, a full hourly modelling for an entire year is performed for the world, subdivided in 145 sub-regions, which is required to reflect the intermittent character of the future energy system. The model derives total installed solar PV capacity requirements of 7.1–9.1 TWp for the electricity sector (as of the year 2015) and 27.4 TWp for the entire energy system in the mid-term. The long-term capacity is expected to be 42 TWp and, because of the ongoing cost reduction of PV and battery technologies, this value is found to be the lower limit for the installed capacities. Solar PV electricity is expected to be the largest, least cost and most relevant source of energy in the mid-term to long-term for the global energy supply.
... For solid fuels a 50 €/ton gate fee is assumed for 2015, increasing to 100 €/ton for the year 2050 for waste incineration plants and this is reflected in the negative cost for solid waste. The method for calculating geothermal energy potential in the sub-regions can be found in Gulagi et al. [24]. For seawater desalination, detailed calculations for the technical constraints and financial cost of seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) desalination are described in Caldera et al. [25]. ...
... The solar PV electricity generation share, of about 86% for 2050, is substantially higher than the world average of 40% found for 100% RE overnight scenarios based on year 2030 assumptions [30]. It is also higher than the obtained PV electricity share of 50% based on the same 2030 overnight scenario assumptions for the region India/SAARC [24]. Prosumers contribute significantly to the power generation and can play a significant role as they are immune to the risk of power cuts, which is a big problem in India. ...
... The wind conditions in India are not the best and this can be observed in the installed capacities of wind energy during the transition period in both scenarios (Figure 6 and 7). However, installed wind capacities are utilized in the period of low solar radiation and monsoon, when the wind conditions are excellent in some parts of India [24]. A 100% RE-based system can be visualized for the year 2030, understanding the effects of monsoon and how the system reacts to its effect [31]. ...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
The initiatives taken by India to tap its renewable energy (RE) potential have been extraordinary in recent years. However, large scale deployment of renewables requires various storage solutions to balance intermittency. In this work, a 100% RE transition pathway based on an hourly resolved model till 2050 is simulated for India, covering demand by the power, desalination and non-energetic industrial gas sectors. Energy storage technologies used in the model that provide flexibility to the system and balance the demand are batteries, pumped hydro storage (PHS), adiabatic compressed air energy storage (A-CAES), thermal energy storage (TES) and power-togas technology. The optimization for each time period (transition is modeled in 5-year steps) is carried out on assumed costs and technological status of all energy technologies involved. The model optimizes the least cost mix of RE power plants and storage technologies installed to achieve a fully RE based power system by 2050 considering the base year's (2015) installed power plant capacities, their lifetimes and total electricity demand. Results indicate that a 100% renewable energy based energy system is achievable in 2050 with the levelised cost of electricity falling from a current level of 57 €/MWhe to 42 €/MWhe in 2050 in a country-wide scenario. With large scale intermittent renewable energy sources in the system, the demand for storage technologies increases from the current level to 2050. Batteries provide 2596 TWh, PHS provides 12 TWh and gas storage provides 197 TWh of electricity to the total electricity demand. Most of the storage demand will be based on batteries, which provide as much as 42% of the total electricity demand. The combination of solar PV and battery storage evolves as the low-cost backbone of Indian energy supply, resulting in 3.2 – 4.3 TWp of installed PV capacities, depending on the applied scenario in 2050. The above results clearly prove that renewable energy options are the most competitive and least-cost solution for achieving a net zero emission energy system. This is the first study of its kind in full hourly resolution for India.
... Additionally, geothermal energy is used as one of the sources for energy production and method for calculating the geothermal potential in the sub-regions can be found in Gulagi et al., [19]. For the additional flexible demand sector of seawater desalination, detailed calculations for the technical constraints and financial cost of seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) desalination are described Caldera et.al. ...
... Technologies for converting renewable energy sources into electricity  Energy storage  Energy bridging technologies  Electricity transmission technologies Detailed description of the four categories can be found in Gulagi et al. [19].The full block model diagram is presented in Fig. 2. ...
... according to Bogdanov and Breyer [14] and for hydro power as given in Gulagi et al. [19].The computed average full load hours (FLH) for optimally tilted, single-axis tracking PV systems, wind power plants and CSP are provided in the Supplementary Material (Table 7). The aggregated profiles of solar PV generation for single-axis tracking and wind energy power generation normalized to maximum capacity averaged for the East Asian region are presented in Supplementary Material (Fig.1). ...
Conference Paper
Energy is a key driver for social and economic change. Many countries trying to develop economically and socially and many developed countries trying to maintain their economic growth will create a huge demand for energy in the future. The growth in energy production will put our climate at risk, without change in the existing fossil fuel based energy system. In this paper, 100% renewable energy based system is discussed for East Asia, integrating the two large regions of Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia. Regional integration of the two regions does not provide significant benefit to the energy system in terms of cost reduction. However, reduction of 0.4-0.7% in terms of total annual cost of the system can be achieved for East Asia, mainly realised in optimising the bordering regions of South China and Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia. The idea of Australia being an electricity source for Asia, does not pay off due to the long distances and local storage of the generated electricity in the regions is more cost competitive. However, such an integration provides a sustainable and economically feasible energy system with the cost of electricity between 53-66 €/MWh for the year 2030 with the assumptions used in this study. The described energy system will be very cost competitive to the widely discussed nuclear and fossil carbon-capture and storage (CCS) alternatives.
... The detailed description of the model can be found in Bogdanov and Breyer [30]. Detailed information of the input data used for the model is given in Bogdanov and Breyer [30] and additional calculations related to geothermal, desalination water demand [31] and industrial gas demand data is described here [32]. ...
... Other research aggregates the sub-regions, so that the world can be represented by 23 regions [37], or an integrated analysis for Europe-Eurasia-MENA [38] or the East Asian Super Grid [39], all in full hourly resolution and interconnected. The 9 major regions are: Europe [40], Eurasia [41], MENA [42], Sub-Saharan Africa [43], India/ SAARC [32], Northeast Asia [30], Southeast Asia and Pacific [44,45], North America [46] and South America [47,48]. Solar PV is represented in the model by ground-mounted optimally tilted and single-axis tracking PV power plants and prosumer rooftop systems, enhanced by batteries in the cases of financial attractiveness for the prosumers. ...
... More detailed results are shown for all 145 sub-regions globally aggregated to the nine major regions for Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia and India/SAARC (Fig. 4), Europe and Eurasia (Fig. 5), MENA and Sub-Saharan Africa (Fig. 6) and North America and South America (Fig. 7). Detailed information on all 145 sub-regions can be found in the respective publications [30,32,[40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48]. ...
Conference Paper
The global energy system has to be transformed towards high levels of sustainability for executing the COP21 agreement. Solar PV offers excellent characteristics to play a major role for this energy transition. Key objective of this work is to investigate the role of PV for the global energy transition based on respective scenarios and a newly introduced energy transition model developed by the authors at the Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT). The available energy transition scenarios have no consensus view on the future role of PV, but a progressive group of scenarios present results of a fast growth of installed PV capacities and a high energy supply share of solar energy to the total primary energy demand in the world in the decades to come. These progressive energy transition scenarios can be confirmed by the LUT Energy system model. The model derives total installed solar PV capacity requirements of 7.1 – 9.1 TWp for today's electricity sector and 27.4 TWp for the entire energy system in the mid-term (year 2030 assumptions set as reference). The long-term capacity is expected to be 42 TWp and due to the ongoing cost reduction of PV and battery technologies, this value is found to be the lower limit for the installed capacities. The cost reductions are taken into account for the year 2030, but are expected to further proceed beyond this reference year. Solar PV electricity is expected to be the largest, least cost and most relevant source of energy in the mid-to long-term for the global energy supply.
... For solid waste a 50 €/ton gate fee was assumed for 2015, raising to 100 €/ton in 2050. Geothermal energy potential was calculated according to the method described in [39]. FLh for wind turbines, solar PV and hydro plants, potentials of bio and geothermal energy are provided in Supplementary Material (Table 4). ...
Conference Paper
Energy transition towards higher shares of renewable energy (RE) is on the agenda in Kazakhstan since 2011. Kazakhstan has a great potential to build a sustainable and RE-based system: excellent solar and wind conditions, hydro and biomass power potential. Three transition scenarios with different levels of sector integration were simulated for Kazakhstan. The results show that the existing energy system of Kazakhstan can be transformed towards a 100% RE system by 2050. Such a system will be lower in cost than the existing fossil-based system, the levelised cost of electricity in 2050 will be between 49.5 €/MWh and 53.0 €/MWh. The water stress problem can be solved with RE, since a 100% RE system can generate energy needed for desalination of 1960 billion m 3 of water, with the water cost around 1.0 €/m 3 including water transportation. A low cost sustainable 100% RE system can be built by 2050, exceeding the country's «green concept» goal of 50% RE for the same time of period.
... The calculations for the feed-in time series of wind power plants is analogous to Gerlach et al. [33], for a standard 3 MW wind turbine (E-101 [36]) and hub height of 150 m. Additionally, the method for calculating geothermal energy potential in the sub-regions can be found in Gulagi et al. [37]. For the additional flexible demand sector of seawater desalination, detailed calculations for the technical constraints and financial cost of seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) desalination are described in Caldera et al. [38]. ...
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The Paris Agreement points out that countries need to shift away from the existing fossil-fuel-based energy system to limit the average temperature rise to 1.5 or 2 °C. A cost-optimal 100% renewable energy based system is simulated for East Asia for the year 2030, covering demand by power, desalination, and industrial gas sectors on an hourly basis for an entire year. East Asia was divided into 20 sub-regions and four different scenarios were set up based on the level of high voltage grid connection, and additional demand sectors: power, desalination, industrial gas, and a renewable-energy-based synthetic natural gas (RE-SNG) trading between regions. The integrated RE-SNG scenario gives the lowest cost of electricity (€52/MWh) and the lowest total annual cost of the system. Results contradict the notion that long-distance power lines could be beneficial to utilize the abundant solar and wind resources in Australia for East Asia. However, Australia could become a liquefaction hub for exporting RE-SNG to Asia and a 100% renewable energy system could be a reality in East Asia with the cost assumptions used. This may also be more cost-competitive than nuclear and fossil fuel carbon capture and storage alternatives.
... The findings for Brazil that only 0.05 GW of PtG technology is needed in the power sector for 100% RE represents a singularity among all large regions in the world investigated so far with this methodology. The average ratio of electrolysers to the total installed power generation capacity in a geographical fully integrated region reaches 2.9% for Eurasia [6], 3.5% for Northeast Asia [7], 0.6% for Southeast Asia [18], 1.7% for India/SAARC [17], 1.3% for Sub-Saharan Africa [3] and 0.02% for Brazil. The ratio of hydro dams to the total installed power generation capacity reaches 16.9% for Eurasia, 3.1% for Northeast Asia, 5.6% for Southeast Asia, 3.0% for India/SAARC and 5.3% for Sub-Saharan Africa, but 29.4% for Brazil. ...
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In this study, a 100% renewable energy (RE) system for Brazil in 2030 was simulated using an hourly resolution model. The optimal sets of RE technologies, mix of capacities, operation modes and least cost energy supply were calculated and the role of storage technologies was analysed. The RE generated was not only able to fulfil the electricity demand of the power sector but also able to cover the 25% increase in total electricity demand due to water desalination and synthesis of natural gas for industrial use. The results for the power sector show that the total installed capacity is formed of 165 GW of solar photovoltaics (PV), 85 GW of hydro dams, 12 GW of hydro run-of-river, 8 GW of biogas, 12 GW of biomass and 8 GW of wind power. For solar PV and wind electricity storage, 243 GWhel of battery capacity is needed. According to the simulations the existing hydro dams will function similarly to batteries, being an essential electricity storage. 1 GWh of pumped hydro storage, 23 GWh of adiabatic compressed air storage and 1 GWh of heat storage are used as well. The small storage capacities can be explained by a high availability of RE sources with low seasonal variability and an existing electricity sector mainly based on hydro dams. Therefore, only 0.05 GW of PtG technologies are needed for seasonal storage in the electricity sector. When water desalination and industrial gas sectors’ electricity demand are integrated to the power sector, a reduction of 11% in both total cost and electric energy generation was achieved. The total system levelized cost of electricity decreased from 61 €/MWh to 53 €/MWh for the sector integration.
... During our work we simulate optimal RE-based energy systems globally. The world is divided into 9 geographiceconomic major regions: Europe [1], Eurasia [2], Northwest Asia [3], Southwest Asia [4], Indian subcontinent [5], Middle East North Africa (MENA) [6], Sub-Saharan Africa, [7], North America [8] and South America [9], and for every region PV generation takes an important role in energy supply [10]. For each major region an optimal structure of a REbased energy system was defined using the LUT energy system model, an hourly dispatched linear optimization model for minimizing total energy system costs, which uses real weather data and a synthetized load, while taking specific aspects and given constraints into account. ...
Conference Paper
Need to transform the energy system towards 100% renewable generation is well understood and such a transformation has already started. However, this transformation will be full of challenges and there will be no standard solution for energy supply, every regional energy system will be specific, because of local specific climatic and geographical conditions and consumption patterns. Based on the two major energy sources all regions can be divided into two categories: PV and Wind energy based regions. Moreover, local conditions will not only influence the optimal generation mix, but also optimal storage capacities choice. In this work we observe a strong coupling between PV and short-term storage utilisation in all major regions in the world: in the PV generation based energy systems short-term storage utilisation is much higher than in wind-based systems. Finally, PV-based energy systems demand a significant capacity for short-term storage, the more the more PV generation takes place locally.
... In addition, it is assumed that there are no thermal power plants using fossil fuels in the future scenario for Iran, in alignment to the COP21 agreement to achieve a net zero greenhouse gas emission system. This is validated by recent literature that discusses the transition to 100% renewable energy power systems of different countries and regions [19][20][21][22][23][24][25]. Thus, the 2030 total water demand of the agricultural, domestic and industrial sectors, excluding that of thermal power plants in Iran, is considered. ...
Conference Paper
Iran is the 17th most populated country in the world with several regions facing high or extremely high water stress. It is estimated that half the population live in regions with 30% of Iran’s freshwater resources. The combination of climate change, increasing national water demand and mismanagement of water resources is forecasted to worsen the situation in Iran. This has led to an increase in interest in the use of non-traditional water supplies to meet the increasing water demand. In this paper it is shown how the future water demand of Iran can be met through seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) desalination plants powered by 100% renewable energy systems, at a cost level competitive with that of current SWRO plants powered by fossil plants in Iran. The SWRO desalination capacity required to meet the 2030 water demand of Iran is estimated to be about 215 million m3/day compared to the 175,000 m3/day installed SWRO desalination capacity of the total 809,607 m3/day desalination capacity in the year 2015. The optimal hybrid renewable energy system for Iran is found to be a combination of solar photovoltaics (PV) fixed-tilted, PV single-axis tracking, Wind, Battery and Power-to-Gas (PtG) plants. The levelized cost of water (LCOW), which includes water production, electricity, water transportation and water storage costs, for regions of desalination demand in 2030, is found to lie between 0.50 €/m3 – 2 €/m3, depending on renewable resource availability and cost of water transport to demand sites. The total system required to meet the 2030 Iranian water demand is estimated to cost 1177 billion € of initial investments. Thus, our work proves that the water crisis in Iran can be averted in a lucrative and sustainable manner.
... for Northeast Asia , 0.6% for Southeast Asia (Gulagi et al., 2016b), 1.7% for India/SAARC (Gulagi et al., 2016a), 1.3% for Sub-Saharan Africa (Barasa M. et al., 2016) and 0.02% for Brazil. The ratio of hydro dams to the total installed power generation capacity reaches 16.9% for Eurasia, 3.1% for Northeast Asia, 5.6% for Southeast Asia, 3.0% for India/SAARC and 5.3% for Sub-Saharan Africa, but 29.4% for Brazil. ...
Conference Paper
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Increasingly, governments and businesses are questioning old-world, “business-as-usual” energy scenarios. This path, from the past, leads only to increasing risks of energy security, pollution, price volatility, and catastrophic climate change. There are better options already available, and we must pursue these realistic alternatives. The world can no longer afford to hang-on to its old energy paradigm, and its dangerous dependence on fossil fuels. The Energy Report, produced through a collaboration between WWF and energy consultancy Ecofys, breaks new ground in the energy debate. No other energy scenario has attempted anything similar: to articulate a feasible future scenario in which all of the world’s energy supply is provided by renewable and sustainable sources by mid-century. It’s time to change the “old” paradigm for the energy industry and articulate a new pathway for the future. The Energy Report provides a meticulously researched scenario into a truly alternative vision for the energy future, and what such a scenario implies for society at large.
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Global power plant capacity has experienced a historical evolution, showing noticeable patterns over the years: continuous growth to meet increasing demand, and renewable energy sources have played a vital role in global electrification from the beginning, first in the form of hydropower but also wind energy and solar photovoltaics. With increasing awareness of global environmental and societal problems such as climate change, heavy metal induced health issues and the growth related cost reduction of renewable electricity technologies, the past two decades have witnessed an accelerated increase in the use of renewable sources. A database was compiled using major accessible datasets with the purpose of analyzing the composition and evolution of the global power sector from a novel sustainability perspective. Also a new sustainability indicator has been introduced for a better monitoring of progress in the power sector. The key objective is to provide a simple tool for monitoring the past, present and future development of national power systems towards sustainability based on a detailed global power capacity database. The main findings are the trend of the sustainability indicator projecting very high levels of sustainability before the middle of the century on a global level, decommissioned power plants indicating an average power plant technical lifetime of about 40 years for coal, 34 years for gas and 34 years for oil-fired power plants, whereas the lifetime of hydropower plants seems to be rather unlimited due to repeated refurbishments, and the overall trend of increasing sustainability in the power sector being of utmost relevance for managing the environmental and societal challenges ahead. To achieve the 2 °C climate change target, zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 may be required. This would lead to stranded assets of about 300 GW of coal power plants already commissioned by 2014. Gas and oil-fired power plants may be shifted to renewable-based fuels. Present power capacity investments have already to anticipate these environmental and societal sustainability boundaries or accept the risk of becoming stranded assets.
Conference Paper
The global energy system has to be transformed towards high levels of sustainability for executing the COP21 agreement. Solar PV offers excellent characteristics to play a major role for this energy transition. Key objective of this work is to investigate the role of PV for the global energy transition based on respective scenarios and a newly introduced energy transition model developed by the authors at the Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT). The available energy transition scenarios have no consensus view on the future role of PV, but a progressive group of scenarios present results of a fast growth of installed PV capacities and a high energy supply share of solar energy to the total primary energy demand in the world in the decades to come. These progressive energy transition scenarios can be confirmed by the LUT Energy system model. The model derives total installed solar PV capacity requirements of 7.1 – 9.1 TWp for today's electricity sector and 27.4 TWp for the entire energy system in the mid-term (year 2030 assumptions set as reference). The long-term capacity is expected to be 42 TWp and due to the ongoing cost reduction of PV and battery technologies, this value is found to be the lower limit for the installed capacities. The cost reductions are taken into account for the year 2030, but are expected to further proceed beyond this reference year. Solar PV electricity is expected to be the largest, least cost and most relevant source of energy in the mid-to long-term for the global energy supply.
Conference Paper
In this work, a 100% renewable energy (RE)-based energy system for the year 2030 for Southeast Asia and the Pacific Rim 1 , and Eurasia was prepared and evaluated and various impacts of adiabatic compressed air energy storage (A-CAES) were researched on an hourly resolution for one year. To overcome the intermittency of RE sources and guarantee regular supply of electricity, energy sources are complemented by five energy storage options: batteries, pumped hydro storage (PHS), thermal energy storage (TES), (A-CAES) and power-togas (PtG). In a region-wide scenario the energy system integration is within a sub-region of the individual large areas of Southeast Asia and Eurasia. In this scenario simulation were performed with and without A-CAES integration. For Southeast Asia and Eurasia, the integration of A-CAES has an impact on the share of a particular storage used and this depends on the seasonal variation in RE generation, the supply share of wind energy and demand in the individual areas. For the region-wide scenario for Southeast Asia (region with low seasonal variation and lower supply share of wind energy) the share of A-CAES output was 1.9% in comparison to Eurasia (region with high seasonal variation and a high supply share of wind energy) which had 28.6%. The other impact which was observed was the distribution of the storage technologies after A-CAES integration, since battery output and PtG output were decreased by 72.9% and 21.6% (Eurasia) and 5.5% and 1.6% (Southeast Asia), respectively. However, a large scale grid integration reduces the demand for A-CAES storage drastically and partly even to zero due to substitution by grids, which has been only observed for A-CAES, but not for batteries and PtG. The most valuable application for A-CAES seems to be in rather decentralized or nationwide energy system designs and as a well-adapted storage for the typical generation profiles of wind energy.
Article
This study demonstrates how seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) plants, necessary to meet increasing future global water demand, can be powered solely through renewable energy. Hybrid PV–wind–battery and power-to-gas (PtG) power plants allow for optimal utilisation of the installed desalination capacity, resulting in water production costs competitive with that of existing fossil fuel powered SWRO plants. In this paper, we provide a global estimate of the water production cost for the 2030 desalination demand with renewable electricity generation costs for 2030 for an optimised local system configuration based on an hourly temporal and 0.45° × 0.45° spatial resolution. The SWRO desalination capacity required to meet the 2030 global water demand is estimated to about 2374 million m3/day. The levelised cost of water (LCOW), which includes water production, electricity, water transportation and water storage costs, for regions of desalination demand in 2030, is found to lie between 0.59 €/m3–2.81 €/m3, depending on renewable resource availability and cost of water transport to demand sites. The global system required to meet the 2030 global water demand is estimated to cost 9790 billion € of initial investments. It is possible to overcome the water supply limitations in a sustainable and financially competitive way.
Article
In order to define a cost optimal 100% renewable energy system, an hourly resolved model has been created based on linear optimization of energy system parameters under given constrains. The model is comprised of five scenarios for 100% renewable energy power systems in North-East Asia with different high voltage direct current transmission grid development levels, including industrial gas demand and additional energy security. Renewables can supply enough energy to cover the estimated electricity and gas demands of the area in the year 2030 and deliver more than 2000 TW hth of heat on a cost competitive level of 84 €/MW hel for electricity. Further, this can be accomplished for a synthetic natural gas price at the 2013 Japanese liquefied natural gas import price level and at no additional generation costs for the available heat. The total area system cost could reach 69.4 €/MW hel, if only the electricity sector is taken into account. In this system about 20% of the energy is exchanged between the 13 regions, reflecting a rather decentralized character which is supplied 27% by stored energy. The major storage technologies are batteries for daily storage and power-to-gas for seasonal storage. Prosumers are likely to play a significant role due to favourable economics. A highly resilient energy system with very high energy security standards would increase the electricity cost by 23% to 85.6 €/MW hel. The results clearly show that a 100% renewable energy based system is feasible and lower in cost than nuclear energy and fossil carbon capture and storage alternatives.
Book
Presenting boundary conditions for the economic and environmental utilization of geothermal technology, this is the first book to provide basic knowledge on the topic in such detail. The editor is the coordinator of the European Geothermic Research Initiative, while the authors are experts for the various geological situations in Europe with high temperature reservoirs in shallow and deep horizons. With its perspectives for R&D in geothermic technology concluding each chapter, this ready reference will be of great value to scientists and decision-makers in research and politics, as well as those giving courses in petroleum engineering, for example.
Presentation
Presentation at the LUT Doctorial School Conference in Lappeenranta at December 10, 2015.
Research
Poster on the occasion of the 2nd International Conference on Desalination using Membrane Technology in Singapore on July 26 - 29, 2015.
Article
This paper provides a comprehensive, updated picture of energy subsidies at the global and regional levels. It focuses on the broad notion of post-tax energy subsidies, which arise when consumer prices are below supply costs plus a tax to reflect environmental damage and an additional tax applied to all consumption goods to raise government revenues. Post-tax energy subsidies are dramatically higher than previously estimated, and are projected to remain high. These subsidies primarily reflect under-pricing from a domestic (rather than global) perspective, so even unilateral price reform is in countries’ own interests. The potential fiscal, environmental and welfare impacts of energy subsidy reform are substantial.
Conference Paper
Grid-parity is a very important milestone for further photovoltaic (PV) diffusion. An updated grid-parity model is presented, which is based on levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) coupled with the experience curve approach. Relevant assumptions for the model are given and its key driving forces are discussed in detail. Results of the analysis are shown for 215 countries/ islands and a total of 645 market segments all over the world. High PV industry growth rates have enabled a fast reduction of LCOE. Depletion of fossil fuel resources and climate change mitigation forces societies to internalize these effects and pave the way for sustainable energy technologies. First grid-parity events have already occurred. The 2010s are characterized by ongoing grid-parity events throughout the most regions in the world, reaching an addressable market of up to 96% of total global electricity market till 2030. In consequence, new political frameworks for maximizing social benefits will be required. In parallel, PV industry tackle its next milestone, fuel-parity. In conclusion, PV is on the pathway to become a highly competitive energy technology.
Technical Report
In large parts of the world, there is a massive need for electrification. Especially in remote areas the valuable access to electricity is often missing. Mini-Grids that enable the operation of machines are particularly suitable to supply communities in a sustainable way with electricity and to promote local progress. In particular PV is suited for the supply of island grids as a decentralized source of energy. In many countries photovoltaic is already an economic alternative to diesel supply and can provide economically up to 90% of energy consumption in an island grid. Profitability, a large market potential and a well political and financial environment for stand-alone PV systems are found especially in East Africa and some South American and Asian countries. The reasons for the failure of Mini-Grids are bad political conditions, lack of credit availability and sometimes inadequate project development. In particular, the funding represents often one of the biggest obstacles for the successful implementation of a project. A sustainable operation is possible if the political and financial environment is met complemented by a comprehensive and provident planning.. Cultural aspects, a cost covering and affordable tariff system and ensuring technical reliability are important elements of successful system integration. The interests of users, operators, financiers and governmental institutions should complement each other positively. Need for action exists yet mainly at the political level in order to create better conditions. In particular, the benefits of renewable energies are not sufficiently known by many decision makers. In addition potential financiers want to be convinced by positive examples. There are by now some promising business models that can be easily reproduced in a country with clear conditions and good financing options. In this way, in a relatively short period of time access to sustainable electrical energy could be enabled for many people in developing countries.
Conference Paper
People in rural regions of various developing countries suffer on having no access to modern forms of energy, in particular electricity. This work is focussed on regions inhabited by these people and presents insights on the short financial amortization periods of solar home systems and photovoltaic pico systems. With amortization periods of about 6 to 18 months, pico systems represent a capitalized value of about 10 to 45 times the original capital expenditures at the point of full financial amortization. For a significantly higher electricity demand hybrid PV mini-grids might be an excellent solution for rural electrification. However the economics are still a challenge. Based on excellent economics of small PV applications the total global residential small PV market potential is estimated to about 8 GWp and 80 bn€. The total PV-based off-grid market potential for the not yet electrified people might be estimated to about 70 GW and roughly 750 bn€.
Conference Paper
In terms of levelized cost of electricity, renewable energies are able to compete with cost of conventional grid electricity, as of today in relevant regions of the world. Partially, electricity being generated by renewable energy sources reached to be less expensive than conventional electricity from the grid. Thus, an electricity supply by renewable energy sources becomes more and more attractive. Furthermore, a decentralized electricity generation appears to be reasonable. This, enables everyone to generate electricity at the place where it is consumed, reducing cost by less grid electricity demand. The renewable energy source solar irradiation can be used in a decentralised manner, whereas a combination with energy storage systems is needed since the fluctuating energy flow has to be adapted to the load profile of human activities. This combination is about to enhance high shares of self consumed electricity in ones electricity demand. This paper gives an overview on grid-parity for photovoltaic systems with energy storage for Germany and some more regions of the world. Residential systems are focused. System configurations as a function of specific factors like regional economics, typical consumption profiles and geographical conditions are analysed.
Conference Paper
Diesel generators contribute to a large share of power generation in developing countries like Peru, the Philippines and Tanzania. This leads to high costs for electricity and causes harmful air pollution. In contrast to that renewable energies can provide affordable and environmentally sound power. This paper indicates that a potential of at least 500 MW is available for upgrading isolated diesel grids to hybrid grids. A geographic analysis is developed in order to localize isolated diesel grids. Furthermore, detected diesel grids are analyzed in terms of installed capacity, operators and purpose of supply. The methodology presented in this paper enables to reveal the huge potential that retrofitting isolated diesel grids provides for the introduction of renewable energies.
Article
Grid-parity is a very important milestone for further photovoltaic (PV) diffusion. A grid-parity model is presented, which is based on levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) coupled with the experience curve approach. Relevant assumptions for the model are given, and its key driving forces are discussed in detail. Results of the analysis are shown for more than 150 countries and a total of 305 market segments all over the world, representing 98.0% of world population and 99.7% of global gross domestic product. High PV industry growth rates enable a fast reduction of LCOE. Depletion of fossil fuel resources and climate change mitigation forces societies to internalize these effects and pave the way for sustainable energy technologies. First grid-parity events occur right now. The 2010s are characterized by ongoing grid-parity events throughout the most regions in the world, reaching an addressable market of about 75–90% of total global electricity market. In consequence, new political frameworks for maximizing social benefits will be required. In parallel, PV industry tackle its next milestone, fuel-parity. In conclusion, PV is on the pathway to become a highly competitive energy technology.
Article
This study demonstrates – based on a dynamical simulation of a global, decentralized 100% renewable electricity supply scenario – that a global climate-neutral electricity supply based on the volatile energy sources photovoltaics (PV), wind energy (onshore) and concentrated solar power (CSP) is feasible at decent cost. A central ingredient of this study is a sophisticated model for the hourly electric load demand in >160 countries. To guarantee matching of load demand in each hour, the volatile primary energy sources are complemented by three electricity storage options: batteries, high-temperature thermal energy storage coupled with steam turbine, and renewable power methane (generated via the Power to Gas process) which is reconverted to electricity in gas turbines. The study determines – on a global grid with 1°x1° resolution – the required power plant and storage capacities as well as the hourly dispatch for a 100% renewable electricity supply under the constraint of minimized total system cost (LCOE). Aggregating the results on a national level results in an levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) range of 80-200 EUR/MWh (on a projected cost basis for the year 2020) in this very decentralized approach. As a global average, 142 EUR/MWh are found. Due to the restricted number of technologies considered here, this represents an upper limit for the electricity cost in a fully renewable electricity supply.
Article
An estimation of the Enhanced Geothermal System's theoretical technical potential for the Iberian Peninsula is presented in this work. As a first step, the temperature at different depths (from 3500 m to 9500 m, in 1000 m steps) has been estimated from existing heat flow, temperature at 1000 m and temperature at 2000 m depth data. From the obtained temperature-at-depth data, an evaluation of the available heat stored for each 1 km thick layer between 3 and 10 km depth, under some limiting hypotheses, has been made. Results are presented as the net electrical power that could be installed, considering that the available thermal energy stored is extracted during a 30 year project life. The results are presented globally for the Iberian Peninsula and separately for Portugal (continental Portugal), Spain (continental Spain plus the Balearic Islands) and for each one of the administrative regions included in the study. Nearly 6% of the surface of the Iberian Peninsula, at a depth of 3500 m has a temperature higher than 150 °C. This surface increases to more than 50% at 5500 m depth, and more than 90% at 7500 m depth. The Enhanced Geothermal System's theoretical technical potential in the Iberian Peninsula, up to a 10 km depth (3 km–10 km) and for temperatures above 150 °C, expressed as potential installed electrical power, is as high as 700 GWe, which is more than 5 times today's total electricity capacity installed in the Iberian Peninsula (renewable, conventional thermal and nuclear).
Article
In this work an estimation and comparison of the technical and sustainable potentials of EGS (Enhanced Geothermal Systems) in Europe is presented. The temperatures at depths of (3500–9500) m were firstly calculated from the available data of temperatures at surface, 1000 m and 2000 m depth, and heat flow. Next the available thermal energy stored in each 1000 m thick layer along the considered depths was evaluated. At this point, the EGS technical potential was estimated and results are presented as installable net electrical power by considering a 30 year time project. A method to estimate the EGS sustainable potential is proposed and the results are compared with the technical potential. Results are presented for the European territory as a whole and individually for each one of the European countries. Estimations for Turkey and the Caucasus region are also presented. Under the hypotheses considered in our study, the technical potential of EGS in Europe for temperatures above 150 °C and depths of between 3 km and 10 km was estimated to be more than 6500 GWe. The part of this technical potential that can be considered as ‘sustainable’ or ‘renewable’ potential was estimated to be 35 GWe.
Article
Renewable energy sources and technologies have potential to provide solutions to the longstanding energy problems being faced by the developing countries like India. Solar energy can be an important part of India's plan not only to add new capacity but also to increase energy security, address environmental concerns, and lead the massive market for renewable energy. Solar thermal electricity (STE) also known as concentrating solar power (CSP) are emerging renewable energy technologies and can be developed as future potential option for electricity generation in India. In this paper, efforts have been made to summarize the availability, current status, strategies, perspectives, promotion policies, major achievements and future potential of solar energy options in India.
Article
Discussions about the origin of energy in a post fossil fuel world are quickly dominated by a general exchange of mostly fruitless arguments about the future contribution of nuclear energy. In this paper we discuss the status of nuclear energy today and analyze its potential evolution during the next 10-20 years. The facts are that nuclear energy contributes only about 14% of the world's electric energy mix today, and as electric energy contributes itself only about 16% to the end energy use, its contribution is essentially negligible. Still, nuclear energy is plagued already with a long list of unsolved problems. Among the less known problems one finds the difficulties that nuclear plants can not provide power according to needs, but have to be operated at full power also during times of low demand. As a result, regions with large contributions from nuclear power need some backup hydropower storage systems. Without sufficient storage capacity, cheap electric energy is suggested during low demand times, which obviously results in wasteful applications. The better known problems, without solutions since at least 40 years, are the final safe storage of the accumulated highly radioactive nuclear waste, that uranium itself is a very limited and non renewable energy resource and that enormous amounts of human resources, urgently needed to find a still unknown path towards a low energy future, are blocked by useless research on fusion energy. Thus, nuclear energy is not a solution to our energy worries but part of the problem.
Article
Each stage in the life cycle of coal-extraction, transport, processing, and combustion-generates a waste stream and carries multiple hazards for health and the environment. These costs are external to the coal industry and are thus often considered "externalities." We estimate that the life cycle effects of coal and the waste stream generated are costing the U.S. public a third to over one-half of a trillion dollars annually. Many of these so-called externalities are, moreover, cumulative. Accounting for the damages conservatively doubles to triples the price of electricity from coal per kWh generated, making wind, solar, and other forms of nonfossil fuel power generation, along with investments in efficiency and electricity conservation methods, economically competitive. We focus on Appalachia, though coal is mined in other regions of the United States and is burned throughout the world.
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Comparing the cost of low-carbon technologies: what is the cheapest option? report by Prognos AG on behalf of Agora Energiewende Integration of renewable energy in Europe, study prepared by KEMA Consulting
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