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Identified vulnerability contexts for a paddy production assessment with climate change in Bali, Indonesia
Abstract
Indonesia is one of the countries that is most vulnerable to climate change. As a small Indonesian island, Bali is likely to also be affected by climate change impacts, including rising sea levels, drought, and flooding, which will also impact on its paddy production. This paper shows how the focus area of vulnerability assessments in Bali has been identified, based on multiple assessments including literature reviews, statistical assessment, stakeholder and policy assessment, and interviews with farmers. A project team applied a six-step process to identify issues linked to climate change, the purpose and system of vulnerability assessment, potential risk/harm in context, and potential variables for a further assessment. The team identified paddy production as a significant issue, and the purpose and system was the Presidential Decree No.5 on paddy production. Significant concerns linked to paddy production included droughts, land use change, and potential variables for vulnerability assessment such as water level and the price of rice. This paper suggests how adaptive measures should be implemented to handle paddy production in a changing climate. The results of this paper were used by a vulnerability assessment on rice paddy and climate change [Takama, T., Setyani, P., & Aldrian, E. (2014). Climate change vulnerability to rice paddy production in Bali, Indonesia. In W. Leal Filho (Ed.), Handbook of climate change adaptation (pp. 1–23). Berlin: Springer].
... The simulations of the climate change scenario indicate that rising temperatures endanger agricultural production and farmers' wealth with negative impacts on ecosystem services. Several studies confirm that climate change is a significant and growing threat to livelihoods and particularly food security [13,121,122]. The simulation results further show that significantly higher incomes can be expected in the IRA scenario compared with the BAU scenario under climate change. ...
... This result gains special importance for subsistence farmers in developing countries. These farmers are particularly vulnerable as they frequently lack assets and flexibility to cope with the impacts that climate change has on agricultural productivity [121][122][123]. Hence the findings stress the importance of agroforests like the illipe rubber mix as a safety net in the light of the ongoing climate change as they contribute to increased income, risk diversification, and resilience for small-scale farmers [18,96,106] The simulations further demonstrate that climate change negatively affects biodiversity, but higher levels can be expected in the IRA scenario, which again underlines the role of agroforests in conserving biological diversity [67,113,115]. ...
In recent years, agroforestry has gained increasing attention as an option to simultaneously alleviate poverty, provide ecological benefits, and mitigate climate change. The present study simulates small-scale farmers’ agroforestry adoption decisions to investigate the consequences for livelihoods and the environment over time. To explore the interdependencies between agroforestry adoption, livelihoods, and the environment, an agent-based model adjusted to a case study area in rural Indonesia was implemented. Thereby, the model compares different scenarios, including a climate change scenario. The agroforestry system under investigation consists of an illipe (Shorea stenoptera) rubber (Hevea brasiliensis) mix, which are both locally valued tree species. The simulations reveal that farmers who adopt agroforestry diversify their livelihood portfolio while increasing income. Additionally, the model predicts environmental benefits: enhanced biodiversity and higher carbon sequestration in the landscape. The benefits of agroforestry for livelihoods and nature gain particular importance in the climate change scenario. The results therefore provide policy-makers and practitioners with insights into the dynamic economic and environmental advantages of promoting agroforestry.
... Air, soil, and water pollution contributed more than 50% to the environmental criterion. Water pollution (29%) was especially important because Indonesia is classified as a country with a high potential for water scarcity in the future [64], while climate change (28%) was selected because Indonesia is vulnerable to sea level rise, droughts, and floods [65]. Climate change encompasses several aspects of human behavior, including production and consumption. ...
PET bottle waste is easy to recycle because it is easy to separate, abundant, and competitively priced. Technologies for the treatment of PET bottle waste have been evaluated to date by using life cycle assessment (LCA), but this does not take into account all of the aspects that policymakers consider necessary when selecting an acceptable technology. Aspects such as society, economics, policies, and technical applicability need to be considered along with the environment and resource consumption to complement the LCA results for PET bottle waste. These aspects were selected as criteria for the analytical hierarchy process (AHP), and stakeholders were invited to make a comparison evaluation of the criteria and sub-criteria. Academics were involved to compare the technology options. The results show that society is the highest priority because it is the main actor that ensures the application of the technology, and that job creation is the most important indicator for the selection of the technology in society criteria. After comparing open landfills, sanitary landfills, incineration with energy recovery, pelletizing, glycolysis, and hydrolysis for the utilization of PET bottle waste, this study suggests pelletizing as the acceptable technology for Indonesia because pelletizing is dominant in all the criteria and sub-criteria which support sustainability in waste management. This is the first time that a single plastic fraction that is easy to collect and recycle has been studied with the AHP. The results show that this type of plastic could also be reused in developing countries through mechanical recycling.
... This is therefore a larger issue between Bali and other islands and between the rice and labor industries. Another issue threatening the sustainability of Balinese rice cultivation is climate change, since rice production is likely to decrease as a result (Takama et al., 2017). This encourages farmers to establish new water use strategies to maintain rice production despite rainfall patterns change. ...
In the irrigation sector, water-related conflict has been compounded due to social issues such as climate change and urbanization-induced population dynamics. Although Irrigation Management Transfer (IMT) and Participatory Irrigation Management (PIM) were implemented for sustainable irrigation infrastructure management, results of PIM/IMT implementations exhibit conflicts between WUAs and the lack of water users’ associations’ (WUAs) participation in management. To unfold PIM/IMT issues, Agent-Based Model (ABM) helps analyze conflicts, and game theory helps analyze governing concepts underlying cooperative management such as rules. This study discusses the applicability of ABM and game theory to analyze conflicts over surface irrigation water and harvesting labor and also aims to present solutions to increasing conflicts due to labor resource depletion owning to urbanization. To investigate cooperative WUAs amid the pressure of social changes, we chose WUAs in Bali, Indonesia, known as “subaks”. Rice cultivation management practices of five subaks in the study area were identified by stakeholder analysis approach, and we developed an ABM to model water management of six agents representing subaks. To examine influence of harvesting labor supply on water management, noncooperative game theory was applied, and three harvesting labor scenarios and two strategies were generated. Scenario analysis indicates that with severe shortages in the harvesting labor supply, harvesting labor allocation orders could compound the decline in annual rice production. This study also establishes that although current management practices maintain cooperative relationships between subaks and flexible management practices likely strengthen cooperative relationships, social changes could accelerate farmers’ noncooperative behavior. To resolve conflicts, subaks need to develop cooperative relationships on a larger scale, but social issues go beyond the intra-community level and will require government intervention to efficiently use deceasing resource supply. This method using ABM and game theory will contribute to the development of socio-hydrological analysis approach to sustainable resource allocation in PIM/IMT study.
... The use of satellite rainfall data with high spatio-temporal resolution is commonly exploited in the validation of extreme rainfall analysis of regional weather models. Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) and TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) data have been used for the Southeast Asia region [21,23]. The use of CHIRPS and TMPA was based upon their performance in extreme rain observations [43,46]. ...
Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) data have been widely used to
analyze extreme precipitation, but the data have never been validated for the Indonesian Maritime Continent (IMC). This study evaluated the capability of IMERG Early (E), Late (L), and Final (F) data to observe extreme rain in the IMC using the rain gauge data within five years (2016–2020). The capability of IMERG in the observation of the extreme rain index was evaluated using Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) matrices. The IMERG well captured climatologic characteristics of the index of annual total precipitation (PRCPTOT), number of wet days (R85p), number of very wet days (R95p), number of rainy days (R1mm), number of heavy rain days (R10mm), number of very heavy rain days (R20mm), consecutive dry days (CDD), and max 5-day precipitation (RX5day), indicated by KGE value >0.4. Moderate performance (KGE = 0–0.4) was shown in the index of the amount of very extremely wet days (R99p), the number of extremely heavy precipitation days (R50mm), max 1-day precipitation (RX1day), and Simple Daily Intensity Index (SDII). Furthermore, low performance of IMERG (KGE < 0) was observed in the consecutive wet days (CWDs) index. Of the 13 extreme rain indices evaluated, IMERG underestimated and overestimated precipitation of nine and four indexes, respectively. IMERG tends to overestimate precipitation of indexes related to low rainfall intensity (e.g., R1mm). The highest overestimation was observed in the CWD index, related to the overestimation of light rainfall and the high false alarm ratio (FAR) from the daily data. For all indices of extreme rain, IMERG showed good capability to observe extreme rain variability in the IMC. Overall, IMERG-L showed a better capability than IMERG-E and -F but with an insignificant difference. Thus, the data of IMERG-E and IMERG-L, with a more rapid latency than IMERG-F, have great potential to be used for extreme rain observation and flood modeling in the IMC.
... Extreme precipitation in this region is associated with destructive floods that have both a human and a material cost. The consequences are even more critical that the local population is particularly vulnerable [3][4][5][6]. ...
Extreme precipitation is ubiquitous in the Maritime Continent (MC) but poorly predicted numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. NWP evaluation against accurate measures of heavy precipitation is essential to improve their forecasting skill. Here we examine the potential utility of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrieval for GPM (IMERG) for NWP evaluation of extreme precipitation in the MC. For that purpose, we use radar data in Subang (Malaysia) and station data from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) in Malaysia and the Philippines. We find that earlier studies may have underestimated IMERG performances in the MC due to large spatial sampling errors of ground precipitation measurements, especially during extreme precipitation conditions. We recommend using the 95 th percentile for NWP evaluation of extreme daily and sub-daily precipitation against IMERG. At higher percentiles, the IMERG rainfall rates tend to diverge from ground observation and may therefore be treated with caution.
... the local population (Abd Majid et al., 2019;Cabrera & Lee, 2020;Karki, 2019;Takama et al., 2017), can lead to severe consequences. An accurate prediction of extreme precipitation in the MC is therefore of crucial importance for society. ...
The Maritime Continent (MC) is a region subject to high impact weather (HIW) events, which are still poorly predicted by numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. To improve predictability of such events, NWP needs to be evaluated against accurate measures of extreme precipitation across the whole MC. With its global spatial coverage at high spatio‐temporal resolution, the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) data set is a suitable candidate. Here we evaluate extreme precipitation in the Integrated Multi‐Satellite Retrieval for GPM (IMERG) V06B product against station data from the Global Historical Climatology Network in Malaysia and the Philippines. We find that the high intragrid spatial variability of precipitation extremes results in large spatial sampling errors when each IMERG grid box is compared with individual co‐located precipitation measurements, a result that may explain discrepancies found in earlier studies in the MC. Overall, IMERG daily precipitation is similar to station precipitation between the 85th and 95th percentile, but tends to overestimate above the 95th. IMERG data were also compared with radar data in western Peninsular Malaysia for sub‐daily timescales. Allowing for uncertainties in radar data, the analysis suggests that the 95th percentile is still suitable for NWP evaluation of extreme sub‐daily precipitation, but that the rainfall rates diverge at higher percentiles. Hence, our overall recommendation is that the 95th percentile be used to evaluate NWP forecasts of HIW on daily and sub‐daily time scales against IMERG data, but that higher percentiles (i.e., more extreme precipitation) be treated with caution.
The contribution of agriculture to society is undeniable, as is its impact on the environment. Irrigators' decisions to follow best management practices or implement a policy change, to accept a technology, or even to exit farming, all affect society. Hence the decision‐making behavior of irrigators is of interest to politicians, policymakers, and researchers due to their impact on resource use and social concerns for their welfare. There are numerous studies available regarding the decision‐making behavior of irrigators. Most of them concentrate on decisions within a single time frame, single decisions with multiple driving forces, or multiple decisions with a single driving force. We have conducted a comprehensive review of the existing literature related to irrigators' decision‐making behavior. We used a systematic method to identify relevant publications and used qualitative data analysis (content analysis) to analyze trends and/or patterns across the selected articles. This research provided a typology and an overarching high‐level framework of irrigators' decision‐making process irrespective of the types of decisions made. The results of the study demonstrate that it is highly beneficial to integrate both qualitative and quantitative methods in a single study to get a complete picture of irrigators' decision‐making process. This allows us to ensure that we have captured the relevant drivers of decision‐making in highly dynamic and complex environments. Better knowledge of irrigators' decision‐making process allows regulators to shape improved agricultural policy and increase acceptance by irrigators of technologies that allow water managers to allocate resources fairly among different stakeholders. This article is categorized under: Human Water > Methods Engineering Water > Planning Water Human Water > Water Governance Overview of methods used for reviewing irrigators' decision‐making behavior—A systematic method was used to identify key articles, and qualitative data analysis method was used to analyze the literature.
In order to create awareness and demonstrate the opportunities, as well as benefits, of low-carbon growth and climate resilient development in the productive industries in African countries, UNIDO applies Green Industry policy instruments, practices and techniques. This is one of UNIDO’s regional projects on low-carbon and climate resilient (LCCR) industrial development in four African countries: Egypt, Kenya, Senegal and South Africa.
UNIDO is an agency of the United Nations that specialises in promoting industrial development for poverty reduction, inclusive globalisation and environmental sustainability. The first phase of the LCCR project consists of two components: national level policy assessments, and vulnerability and low-carbon industry assessments in selected sub-industries. Results of these assessments will be the basis for producing synthesis reports of industry value chains.
Government action assesses the vulnerability and sensitivity of each industry to the impacts of climate change on the national industry, key resources, and locations with regard to the current climate and future climate change. This component maps previous and ongoing actions taken by the government in each country. Green Industry will assist the effective implementation and operationalisation of the existing national policies and strategies for industry.
Each country team assessed vulnerability and Green House Gasses (GHG) emissions in two selected sub-industries. Quick preliminary vulnerability assessments were conducted at selected production facilities/enterprises to explore the need and opportunities for the application of Environmentally Sound Technologies (ESTs) and Green Industry techniques and practices. Methods for EST and Green Industry technological transfer will be planned and disseminated to promote low-carbon growth and climate resilient industrial development. This report synthesises policies and vulnerability assessments produced by National Cleaner Production Centers in the four African countries, as well as the value chain of industries in Egypt and Kenya.
The goal of the assessment is to establish the industry vulnerability to climate change in the four case countries. The project focuses on industry structure, resource requirements and locations in the context of the projected impact of climate change. The objectives of the project assessment were:
• To determine the technological, managerial and operational capacities of industries to achieve low-carbon and climate resilient industrial development.
•To examine the challenges and opportunities inherent in the national frameworks for low-carbon and climate resilient industrial development.
• To propose potential areas of improvement for low-carbon and climate resilient industrial development.
To achieve the objectives of this assessment, a combination of information types and sources was used and multiple methods followed. The information required for the assessment was obtained primarily through a series of consultative stakeholder workshops with various key representatives of government agencies in the focal industries and reviews of existing policies, strategies and action plans relating to low-carbon and climate resilience. Face-to-face interviews were conducted for the target participants who could not attend the workshops. The agencies chosen for the consultation process were informed of the relevance of their mandate to the initiative.
This report also uses climate information data to analyse current and future challenges in important industries in each country. Climate information section employs two sets of climate data on rainfall and temperature. The data were obtained from climate information portals (CIP). The period of data from CIP is 1979–2000. The projected future climate changes for the location across ten different statistically downscaled CMIP5 GCMs for RCP 4.5 because RCP 4.5 assumes that global annual GHG emissions (measured in CO2-equivalents) peak around 2040, with emissions declining substantially thereafter. The observational data from the target governments and the Food Agriculture Organization (FAO) is used to compare the data of CIP. Anomalies are calculated relative to the historical period 1980–2000. The solid bars in the climate data represent the range between the middle 80% of projected changes and so excludes the upper and lower 10% as these are often considered to be outliers.
The aims of the climate information section are to give general knowledge and recommendations on climate information, including the projected trends of rainfall as well as the current condition of temperature to support a target sector. For example, in the Egypt case, this section assesses how current trends and long-term projected changes in temperatures and rain- fall in Giza a ect the potential for wheat cultivation, and how any impacts can be addressed.
This chapter presents the recent vulnerability assessment project on a rice paddy production and climate change in Indonesia and attempts to demonstrate a practical framework and methodology for a vulnerability and adaptation assessment in the agricultural sector. This chapter applies the outcome vulnerability framework, which is defined by the IPCC. The framework is applied into a practical methodology using multidisciplinary approaches such as statistical modeling, GIS and remote sensing, as well as participatory research, focus group discussion, and policy assessment. The chapter produces vulnerability maps illustrating how climate change affects rice paddy production in Indonesia especially Bali island. In Bali island, the suitability for rice paddy production has been decreased 20 % in the last 20 years because of changes in climate, and climate change will continue in the future. On the other hand, the chapter suggests that actual damages will be based on rice paddy location and the adaptive capacity of farmers. The chapter demonstrates the impacts of climate change on rice paddy production, which is a staple food for many developing countries including Indonesia. It is important to understand the impacts of climate change in agriculture sector that is the most vulnerable to adverse changes in climate. The chapter successfully demonstrates a multidisciplinary approach, which can be applied in other agricultural products in different countries.
In this paper, we aim to investigate how local communities cope with and adapt to multiple stresses in rural semiarid South Africa. In semiarid regions water scarcity is one of a number of stresses that shape livelihood vulnerability. With climate change, it is predicted that rainfall in South Africa will become more uncertain and variable in the future, exposing more people to water insecurity. At the same time, the impacts of disease, a lack of institutional capacity, and limited livelihood opportunities can combine to limit adaptive capacity. Therefore, adaptation to changing climate should not be viewed in isolation but instead in the context of social, economic, and political conditions, all of which shape local community vulnerability and people's ability to cope with and adapt to change. This study uses a qualitative-quantitative-qualitative framework, including the use of a stated preference survey, to identify the drivers of agroecosystem change, to understand the capacity of households to cope with droughts, and to determine the ability of local institutions to respond to crises. The analysis suggests that the capacity of the agroecosystem to remain productive during droughts is decreasing, individual/household adaptive capacity remains low, and institutional capacity faces considerable barriers that prevent it from supporting households to adapt to multiple stresses. This research adds weight to the claim that vulnerability reflects multiple forces and processes, and that multiple stresses, that are agroecological, socioeconomic, and institutional in nature, need to be examined to understand vulnerability and to prevent maladaptation.
We discuss approaches to the assessment of vulnerability to climate variability and change and attempt to clarify the relationship between the concepts of vulnerability and adaptation. In search of a robust, policy-relevant framework, we define vulnerability in terms of the capacity of individuals and social groups to respond to, that is, to cope with, recover from or adapt to, any external stress placed on their livelihoods and well-being. The approach that we develop places the social and economic well-being of society at the centre of the analysis, focussing on the socio-economic and institutional constraints that limit the capacity to respond. From this perspective, the vulnerability or security of any group is determined by resource availability and by the entitlement of individuals and groups to call on these resources. We illustrate the application of this approach through the results of field research in coastal Vietnam, highlighting shifting patterns of vulnerability to tropical storm impacts at the household- and community-level in response to the current process of economic renovation and drawing conclusions concerning means of supporting the adaptive response to climate stress. Four priorities for action are identified that would improve the situation of the most exposed members of many communities: poverty reduction; risk-spreading through income diversification; respecting common property management rights; and promoting collective security. A sustainable response, we argue, must also address the underlying causes of social vulnerability, including the inequitable distribution of resources.
We use a statistical metric of multi-dimensional climate change to quantify the emergence of global climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 climate model ensemble. Our hotspot metric extends previous work through the inclusion of extreme seasonal temperature and precipitation, which exert critical influence on climate change impacts. The results identify areas of the Amazon, the Sahel and tropical West Africa, Indonesia, and the Tibetan Plateau as persistent regional climate change hotspots throughout the 21st century of the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 forcing pathways. In addition, areas of southern Africa, the Mediterranean, the Arctic, and Central America/western North America also emerge as prominent regional climate change hotspots in response to intermediate and high levels of forcing. Comparisons of different periods of the two forcing pathways suggest that the pattern of aggregate change is fairly robust to the level of global warming below approximately 2 °C of global warming (relative to the late-20th-century baseline), but not at the higher levels of global warming that occur in the late-21st-century period of the RCP8.5 pathway, with areas of southern Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Arctic exhibiting particular intensification of relative aggregate climate change in response to high levels of forcing. Although specific impacts will clearly be shaped by the interaction of climate change with human and biological vulnerabilities, our identification of climate change hotspots can help to inform mitigation and adaptation decisions by quantifying the rate, magnitude and causes of the aggregate climate response in different parts of the world.
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The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10584-012-0570-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
The relationship between culture and nature has been a topic of intense discussion for thousands of years. Since who we are depends in part on where we are, it is no wonder that people have argued about how much influence nature has had in shaping our lives, and, in turn, about how much freedom we have had in creating nature to fit our lifeways. Basic to this discussion are the concepts of human adaptation, local knowledge, environmental values, place attachments, and cultural landscapes. Critical too is a discussion of what nature is and what role it has in placing limits or even directing human adaptation. We discuss each of these issues in an effort both to explain the intellectual course of this debate and to point to directions where it may lead. The essay will focus on American Indians and their history and culture.
Following the successful Farmer Field School approach, experimental Climate Field Schools were set up in Indonesia. These aim to increase farmers' knowledge on the climate and improve their response to it. Climate is another reason for building up resilience in farming systems, and this was built into the CFS curriculum. Farmers are now more aware of how to use climate information in managing their soil, water and crop resources for best effects.
This volume presents a preliminary framework designed to help international development partners consider the relevance of political economy issues for their programmatic support to decentralization and local government reform. The intention is neither to advocate decentralization in general or in any particular form, nor to presume or privilege any particular decentralization objective. Instead, the purpose is to document the potential value of better understanding how (primarily national and intergovernmental) political and institutional dynamics do or could affect the scope for realizing decentralization reforms aligned with commonly advocated service delivery, governance, and poverty reduction goals. The underlying premise is that systematic analysis of these issues can productively complement the dominantly technical diagnostic work typically carried out by development partners. Specifically, development partners can benefit from better understanding the practical significance of motives that drive politicians and bureaucrats to support or oppose reform at various stages of the decentralization process, from making an initial reform decision to detailed design and implementation. In addition, the framework addresses how these incentives can weaken, strengthen, or shift in response to changes in political and economic conditions that arise after reform begins. A general approach to conducting political economy of decentralization analysis is outlined, recognizing the need to tailor such analysis to the particular country context. This volume is based on literature reviews and knowledge derived from selected country experiences.
We compared the effect of organic and conventional farming practices on soil microbial dynamics in West Java, Indonesia. A secondary forest was included to obtain natural reference values. On the organic farms, soil fertility is maintained mainly with composted organic matter in contrast to conventional farmers who combine fresh manure and chemical fertilizers, and typically apply large amounts of pesticides. Parameters measured were dehydrogenase, β-glucosidase, acid phosphomonoesterase and β-glucosaminidase activity, microbial biomass C (MBC) and microbial community composition by phospholipid fatty acid analysis. A strong negative impact of intensive chemical fertilizer and pesticide use on soil enzyme activities was demonstrated. Dehydrogenase and β-glucosidase activities were correlated with soil organic matter content and pH. β-glucosidase activity under organic management approached that under forest, while MBC and dehydrogenase activity remained higher under forest. The composition of the soil microbial community strongly differed between forest and cultivated soil, a clear difference in composition was also observed between conventional and organic farming. Dehydrogenase activity and C16:1ω5c, marker fatty acid for arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi, appeared to be particularly suited as indicators of the impact of management on soil quality and on the soil microbial community.
The Least Developed Countries (LDCs) are a group of 49 of the world's poorest countries. They have contributed least to the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) but they are most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. This is due to their location in some of the most vulnerable
regions of the world and their low capacities to adapt to these changes. Adaptation to climate change has become an important policy priority in the international negotiations on climate change in recent years. However, it has yet to become a major policy issue within developing countries,
especially the LDCs. This article focuses on two LDCs, namely Bangladesh and Mali, where progress has been made regarding identifying potential adaptation options. For example, Bangladesh already has effective disaster response systems, and strategies to deal with reduced freshwater availability,
and Mali has a well-developed programme for providing agro-hydro-meteorological assistance to communities in times of drought. However, much remains to be done in terms of mainstreaming adaptation to climate change within the national policymaking processes of these countries. Policymakers
need targeting and, to facilitate this, scientific research must be translated into appropriate language and timescales.
Successful human societies are characterised by their adaptability, evidenced throughout human existence. However, climate change introduces a new challenge, not only because of the expected rise in temperature and sea-levels, but also due to the current context of failure to address the causes of poverty adequately. As a result, policy supporting adaptation has been cast as a necessary strategy for responding to both climate change and supporting development, making adaptation the focus of much recent scholarly and policy research. This paper addresses this new adaptation discourse, arguing that work on adaptation so far has focused on responding to the impacts of climate change, rather than sufficiently addressing the underlying factors that cause vulnerability. While there is a significant push all around for adaptation to be better placed in development planning, the paper finds this to be putting the cart before the horse. A successful adaptation process will require adequately addressing the underlying causes of vulnerability: this is the role that development has to play. This work results from research aimed at exploring the international discourse on adaptation to climate change and the meaning of adaptation to climate change in the context of development.
Due to the hydrological and socio-economic complexity of water use within river basins and even sub-basins, it is a considerable
challenge to manage water resources in an efficient, equitable and sustainable way. This paper shows that multi-agent simulation
(MAS) is a promising approach to better understand the complexity of water uses and water users within sub-basins. This approach
is especially suitable to take the collective action into account when simulating the outcome of technical innovation and
policy change. A case study from Chile is used as an example to demonstrate the potential of the MAS framework. Chile has
played a pioneering role in water policy reform by privatizing water rights and promoting trade in such rights, devolving
irrigation management authority to user groups, and privatizing the provision of irrigation infrastructure. The paper describes
the different components of a MAS model developed for four micro-watersheds in the Maule river basin. Preliminary results
of simulation experiments are presented, which show the impacts of technical change and of informal rental markets on household
income and water use efficiency. The paper also discusses how the collective action problems in water markets and in small-scale
and large-scale infrastructure provision can be captured by the MAS model. To promote the use of the MAS approach for planning
purposes, a collaborative research and learning framework has been established, with a recently created multi-stakeholder
platform at the regional level (Comisión Regional de Recursos Hidricos) as the major partner. Finally, the paper discusses
the potentials of using MAS models for water resources management, such as increasing transparency as an aspect of good governance.
The challenges, for example the need to build trust in the model, are discussed as well.
The need to mainstream adaptation to climate change into development planning and ongoing sectoral decision-making is increasingly recognised, and several bilateral and multilateral development agencies are starting to take an interest. Over the past years at least six development agencies have screened their project portfolios, generally with two goals in mind: (1) to ascertain the extent to which existing development projects already consider climate risks or address vulnerability to climate variability and change, and (2) to identify opportunities for incorporating climate change explicitly into future projects. As each portfolio screening was conducted independently, the broader lessons emerging from the screenings have not been systematically analysed. In this paper we assess the screening activities to date, focusing on both the results and the methods applied. Based on this assessment we identify opportunities for development agencies to expand their current focus on the links between climate and development. Most agencies already consider climate change as a real but uncertain threat to future development, but they have given less thought to how different development patterns might affect vulnerability to climate change. The screenings undertaken have shown the need to take a comprehensive approach to adaptation and its integration into development planning and sectoral decision-making, and a number of policy initiatives have been taken to promote such integration. We provide some initial guidance as to how portfolio screening can be carried out in a way that would allow agencies to assess systematically the relevance of climate change to their ongoing and planned development projects.
To improve the description of rainfall partitioning by a vegetation canopy that changes in time a number of adaptations to the revised analytical model for rainfall interception by sparse canopies [J. Hydrol., 170 (1995) 79] was proposed in the first of two papers. The current paper presents an application of this adapted analytical model to simulate throughfall, stemflow and interception as measured in a mixed agricultural cropping system involving cassava, maize and rice during two seasons of growth and serial harvesting in upland West Java, Indonesia. Measured interception losses were 18 and 8% during the two measuring periods, while stemflow fractions were estimated at 2 and 4%, respectively. The main reasons for these discrepancies were differences in vegetation density and composition, as well as differences in the exposure of the two sites used in the two respective years. Functions describing the development of the leaf area index of each of the component crops in time were developed. Leaf area index (ranging between 0.7 and 3.8) was related to canopy cover fraction (0.41–0.94). Using average values and time series of the respective parameters, interception losses were modelled using both the revised analytical model and the presently adapted version. The results indicate that the proposed model adaptations substantially improve the performance of the analytical model and provide a more solid base for parameterisation of the analytical model in vegetation of variable density.
There is growing recognition in the human dimensions research community that climate change impact studies must take into account the effects of other ongoing global changes. Yet there has been no systematic methodology to study climate change vulnerability in the context of multiple stressors. Using the example of Indian agriculture, this paper presents a methodology for investigating regional vulnerability to climate change in combination with other global stressors. This method, which relies on both vulnerability mapping and local-level case studies, may be used to assess differential vulnerability for any particular sector within a nation or region, and it can serve as a basis for targeting policy interventions.
This paper presents a participatory approach to investigate vulnerability and adaptive capacity to climate variability and water stress in the Lakhwar watershed in Uttarakhand State, India. Highly water stressed microwatersheds were identified by modelling surface runoff, soil moisture development, lateral runoff, and groundwater recharge. The modelling results were shared with communities in two villages, and timeline exercises were carried out to allow them to trace past developments that have impacted their lives and livelihoods, and stimulate discussion about future changes and possible adaptation interventions.
textlessptextgreaterAbstracttextlessbr/textgreaterThe issue of "measuring" climate change vulnerability and adaptive capacity by means of indicators divides policy and academic communities. While policy increasingly demands such indicators an increasing body of literature criticises them. This misfit results from a twofold confusion. First, there is confusion about what vulnerability indicators are and which arguments are available for building them. Second, there is confusion about the kinds of policy problems to be solved by means of indicators. This paper addresses both sources of confusion. It first develops a rigorous conceptual framework for vulnerability indicators and applies it to review the scientific arguments available for building climate change vulnerability indicators. Then, it opposes this availability with the following six diverse types of problems that vulnerability indicators are meant to address according to the literature: (i) identification of mitigation targets; (ii) identification of vulnerable people, communities, regions, etc.; (iii) raising awareness; (iv) allocation of adaptation funds; (v) monitoring of adaptation policy; and (vi) conducting scientific research. It is found that vulnerability indicators are only appropriate for addressing the second type of problem but only at local scales, when systems can be narrowly defined and inductive arguments can be built. For the other five types of problems, either vulnerability is not the adequate concept or vulnerability indicators are not the adequate methodology. I conclude that both the policy and academic communities should collaboratively attempt to use a more specific terminology for speaking about the problems addressed and the methodologies applied. The one-size-fits-all vulnerability label is not sufficient. Speaking of "measuring" vulnerability is particularly misleading, as this is impossible and raises false expectations.textless/ptextgreater
Tensions over freshwater resources may become more frequent as pressures on water resources grow due to increased demand and variability of rainfall. Conflicts may take place between or within countries or between competing sectoral users. This paper focuses on institutional approaches for enhancing cooperation between countries for sustainable development of transboundary freshwater bodies and contributing basins. It is assumed that instead of being zones of conflict, shared water resources can provide a basis for cooperation and benefit-sharing provided that threats to the international waters are recognized and collaborative structures are created. The paper draws upon experiences gained within the international waters focal area of the Global Environment Facility, the main funding mechanism for countries to support the environmental management of transboundary water resources. Lessons for promoting peaceful cooperation for environmental management, benefit-sharing and sustainable use of transboundary freshwater resources are highlighted through examples from Africa, Central Asia and Latin America. Experience shows the importance of processes that bring together all sectors and actors whose actions affect the transboundary waterbody at regional, national and local levels. The development of a science-based diagnostic analysis is essential to identify the threats to the transboundary ecosystem and to break down the issues into manageable parts with the aim of developing a strategic action programme. Ensuring political commitment that can result in institutional, policy and legal reforms in the countries concerned is the key to sustainable development of the transboundary resource.
While it is generally asserted that those countries who have contributed least to anthropogenic climate change are most vulnerable to its adverse impacts some recently developed indices of vulnerability to climate change come to a different conclusion. Confirmation or rejection of this assertion is complicated by the lack of an agreed metric for measuring countries' vulnerability to climate change and by conflicting interpretations of vulnerability. This paper presents a comprehensive semi-quantitative analysis of the disparity between countries' responsibility for climate change, their capability to act and assist, and their vulnerability to climate change for four climate-sensitive sectors based on a broad range of disaggregated vulnerability indicators. This analysis finds a double inequity between responsibility and capability on the one hand and the vulnerability of food security, human health, and coastal populations on the other. This double inequity is robust across alternative indicator choices and interpretations of vulnerability. The main cause for the higher vulnerability of poor nations who have generally contributed little to climate change is their lower adaptive capacity. In addition, the biophysical sensitivity and socio-economic exposure of poor nations to climate impacts on food security and human health generally exceeds that of wealthier nations. No definite statement can be made on the inequity associated with climate impacts on water supply due to large uncertainties about future changes in regional water availability and to conflicting indicators of current water scarcity. The robust double inequity between responsibility and vulnerability for most climate-sensitive sectors strengthens the moral case for financial and technical assistance from those countries most responsible for climate change to those countries most vulnerable to its adverse impacts. However, the complex and geographically heterogeneous patterns of vulnerability factors for different climate-sensitive sectors suggest that the allocation of international adaptation funds to developing countries should be guided by sector-specific or hazard-specific criteria despite repeated requests from participants in international climate negotiations to develop a generic index of countries' vulnerability to climate change.
The world’s climate is changing and will continue to change into the coming century at rates projected to be unprecedented in recent human history. The risks associated with these changes are real but highly uncertain. Societal vulnerability to the risks associated with climate change may exacerbate ongoing social and economic challenges, particularly for those parts of societies dependent on resources that are sensitive to changes in climate. Risks are apparent in agriculture, fisheries and many other components that constitute the livelihood of rural populations in developing countries. In this paper we explore the nature of risk and vulnerability in the context of climate change and review the evidence on present-day adaptation in developing countries and on coordinated international action on future adaptation. We argue that all societies are fundamentally adaptive and there are many situations in the past where societies have adapted to changes in climate and to similar risks. But some sectors are more sensitive and some groups in society more vulnerable to the risks posed by climate change than others. Yet all societies need to enhance their adaptive capacity to face both present and future climate change outside their experienced coping range. The challenges of climate change for development are in the present. Observed climate change, present-day climate variability and future expectations of change are changing the course of development strategies - development agencies and governments are now planning for this adaptation challenge. The primary challenge, therefore, posed at both the scale of local natural resource management and at the scale of international agreements and actions, is to promote adaptive capacity in the context of competing sustainable development objectives.
El Niño events typically lead to delayed rainfall and decreased rice planting in Indonesia's main rice-growing regions, thus prolonging the hungry season and increasing the risk of annual rice deficits. Here we use a risk assessment framework to examine the potential impact of El Niño events and natural variability on rice agriculture in 2050 under conditions of climate change, with a focus on two main rice-producing areas: Java and Bali. We select a 30-day delay in monsoon onset as a threshold beyond which significant impact on the country's rice economy is likely to occur. To project the future probability of monsoon delay and changes in the annual cycle of rainfall, we use output from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR4 suite of climate models, forced by increasing greenhouse gases, and scale it to the regional level by using empirical downscaling models. Our results reveal a marked increase in the probability of a 30-day delay in monsoon onset in 2050, as a result of changes in the mean climate, from 9–18% today (depending on the region) to 30–40% at the upper tail of the distribution. Predictions of the annual cycle of precipitation suggest an increase in precipitation later in the crop year (April–June) of ≈10% but a substantial decrease (up to 75% at the tail) in precipitation later in the dry season (July–September). These results indicate a need for adaptation strategies in Indonesian rice agriculture, including increased investments in water storage, drought-tolerant crops, crop diversification, and early warning systems.
• empirical downscaling models
• risk assessment
Investments aimed at improving agricultural adaptation to climate change inevitably favor some crops and regions over others.
An analysis of climate risks for crops in 12 food-insecure regions was conducted to identify adaptation priorities, based
on statistical crop models and climate projections for 2030 from 20 general circulation models. Results indicate South Asia
and Southern Africa as two regions that, without sufficient adaptation measures, will likely suffer negative impacts on several
crops that are important to large food-insecure human populations. We also find that uncertainties vary widely by crop, and
therefore priorities will depend on the risk attitudes of investment institutions.
This paper reviews research traditions of vulnerability to environmental change and the challenges for present vulnerability research in integrating with the domains of resilience and adaptation. Vulnerability is the state of susceptibility to harm from exposure to stresses associated with environmental and social change and from the absence of capacity to adapt. Antecedent traditions include theories of vulnerability as entitlement failure and theories of hazard. Each of these areas has contributed to present formulations of vulnerability to environmental change as a characteristic of social-ecological systems linked to resilience. Research on vulnerability to the impacts of climate change spans all the antecedent and successor traditions. The challenges for vulnerability research are to develop robust and credible measures, to incorporate diverse methods that include perceptions of risk and vulnerability, and to incorporate governance research on the mechanisms that mediate vulnerability and promote adaptive action and resilience. These challenges are common to the domains of vulnerability, adaptation and resilience and form common ground for consilience and integration.
A long history of increases in population pressure in Java has caused agricultural land use to expand and intensify. More recent land use changes caused the conversion of prime agricultural land into residential and industrial area. Results of a dynamic, regional-scale, land use change model are presented, defining the spatial distribution of these land use changes. The model is based on multi-scale modelling of the relations between land use and socio-economic and biophysical determinants. Historical validation showed that the model can adequately simulate the pattern of land use change. Future patterns of land use change between 1994 and 2010 are simulated assuming further urbanization. The results suggest that most intensive land use changes will occur in Java's lowland areas.
For the Balinese, the whole of nature is a perpetual resource: through centuries of carefully directed labor, the engineered landscape of the island's rice terraces has taken shape. According to Stephen Lansing, the need for effective cooperation in water management links thousands of farmers together in hierarchies of productive relationships that span entire watersheds.
Lansing describes the network of water temples that once managed the flow of irrigation water in the name of the Goddess of the Crater Lake. Using the techniques of ecological simulation modeling as well as cultural and historical analysis, Lansing argues that the symbolic system of temple rituals is not merely a reflection of utilitarian constraints but also a basic ingredient in the organization of production.
Global climate change is a change in the long-term weather patterns that characterize the regions of the world. Scientists state unequivocally that the earth is warming. Natural climate variability alone cannot explain this trend. Human activities, especially the burning of coal and oil, have warmed the earth by dramatically increasing the concentrations of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere. The more of these gases humans put into the atmosphere, the more the earth will warm in the decades and centuries ahead. The impacts of warming can already be observed in many places, from rising sea levels to melting snow and ice to changing weather patterns. Climate change is already affecting ecosystems, freshwater supplies, and human health. Although climate change cannot be avoided entirely, the most severe impacts of climate change can be avoided by substantially reducing the amount of heat-trapping gases released into the atmosphere. However, the time available for beginning serious action to avoid severe global consequences is growing short. This paper reviews assessing of such climate change impacts on various components of the ecosystem such as air, water, plants, animals and human beings, with special emphasis on economy. The most daunting problem of global warming is also discussed. This paper, further reviews the mitigation measures, with a special focus on carbon sequestration and clean development mechanism (CDM). The importance of synergy between climate change mitigation and adaptation has been discussed. An overview of the relationship between economy and emissions, including Carbon Tax and Emission Trading and the policies are also presented.
Thunderstorm frequency and amount of moisture above 500 mb. both indicate that the equatorial regions of South America and Africa and the “maritime continent” of Indonesia and the Carolines generate a much greater amount of heat for export than do equatorial oceanic regions. Over the maritime continent in January 1963, heat generated from excessive rains was efficiently transported northward and through conversion of potential to kinetic energy proably helped maintain an intense subtropical jet stream. In January 1964 drought over the maritime continent was accompained by a relative accumulation of heat in the upper troposphere, associated with inefficient poleward transport, and a much weaker circulation. Most winters over the western Pacific and southeast Asia fluctuate between situations typical of January 1963 and January 1964. Since the troposphere over the maritime continent in winter is probably the single greatest source of energy for the extratropical circulation, the proposed Marshall I...
The last 100 years have witnessed a fervent debate in the USA about quantitative and qualitative research paradigms. Unfortunately, this has led to a great divide between quantitative and qualitative researchers, who often view themselves as in competition with each other. Clearly, this polarization has promoted purists, namely, researchers who restrict themselves exclusively either to quantitative or to qualitative research methods. Mono‐method research is the biggest threat to the advancement of the social sciences. Indeed, as long as we stay polarized in research, how can we expect stakeholders who rely on our research findings to take our work seriously? Thus, the purpose of this paper is to explore how the debate between quantitative and qualitative is divisive and, hence, counterproductive for advancing the social and behavioural science field. This paper advocates that all graduate students learn to utilize and to appreciate both quantitative and qualitative research. In so doing, students will develop into what we term as pragmatic researchers.
In this article, we discuss how two interpretations of vulnerability in the climate change literature are manifestations of different discourses and framings of the climate change problem. The two differing interpretations, conceptualized here as ‘outcome vulnerability’ and ‘contextual vulnerability’, are linked respectively to a scientific framing and a human-security framing. Each framing prioritizes the production of different types of knowledge, and emphasizes different types of policy responses to climate change. Nevertheless, studies are seldom explicit about the interpretation that they use. We present a diagnostic tool for distinguishing the two interpretations of vulnerability and use this tool to illustrate the practical consequences that interpretations of vulnerability have for climate change policy and responses in Mozambique. We argue that because the two interpretations are rooted in different discourses and differ fundamentally in their conceptualization of the character and causes of vulnerability, they cannot be integrated into one common framework. Instead, it should be recognized that the two interpretations represent complementary approaches to the climate change issue. We point out that the human-security framing of climate change has been far less visible in formal, international scientific and policy debates, and addressing this imbalance would broaden the scope of adaptation policies.
Dans cet article, nous discutons de la façon dont deux interprétations de la « vulnérabilité », telle qu’elle est couverte dans la littérature sur les changements climatiques, représentent deux manières différentes d’aborder le sujet du problème climatique. Les deux interprétations, définies ici en tant que « vulnérabilité liée aux conséquences » et « vulnérabilité liée au contexte » relèvent, respectivement, du point de vue scientifique et celui de la sécurité humaine. Chaque point de vue donne priorité à la formation de différents types de savoir, et mettent en valeur différents modèles de politiques de réponses aux changements climatiques. Cependant, les différentes études précisent rarement quelle définition est appliquée. Une méthode d’évaluation permettant de distinguer les deux interprétations est avancée ici et appliquée pour illustrer leurs conséquences réelles sur les politiques et réponses, au Mozambique. Les deux interprétations étant ancrées dans deux discours différents et étant fondamentalement différentes quant à la conceptualisation du caractère et des causes de la vulnérabilité, elles ne peuvent être intégrées dans un cadre d’analyse commun. Il s’agit plutôt de reconnaitre que les deux interprétations représentent des approches complémentaires au problème des changements climatiques. Le point de vue de la sécurité humaine a été jusqu’alors moins couvert dans le débat international officiel en matière de science et de politiques : un rééquilibrage agrandirait le champ des politiques d’adaptation.
Adaptation to climate change occurs largely through action at the local level, which is influenced by international and national levels of political and social organization. This article explores the impact of discourse at the international level on adaptation policy at the national and local level. Discourse defines which knowledge claims, methods and rationalities are accepted and reproduced by actors as a basis for policy development and implementation; this is called ‘framing’. Scientific literature defines adaptation and vulnerability in a general way and so accommodates different framings. This article reviews the history of the concepts of adaptation and vulnerability in the literature and their relation to development. Evidence is presented for the presence of two framings of CCIAV in the literature: the ‘decision-analytic’ and the ‘institutional-analytic’. Wetlands and climate-related projects in Lesotho are analysed and evidence is presented for the reproduction of the two framings. A decision-analytic framing favours projects focusing on technological solutions and reducing projected impacts. Conversely, institutional-analytic framing tends to produce projects that more explicitly include governance issues. It is concluded that framings exert a significant influence on policy when linked to, for example, sources of funding for adaptation. It is argued that methods linked to the ‘decision-analytic’ framing risk limiting the scope of effective adaptations.
This paper addresses the importance of an institutional mechanism to allocate and distribute irrigation water properly, to reduce conflicts and to mobilize financial support for sustainable rice production. The study reveals that the contributing factors affecting the performance of farmer-managed irrigation systems for rice production are plot size and the application of seed, fertilizer and pesticides, and the influencing factors are water adequacy during the dry season and a fixed schedule of intermittent flow of water distribution. Water inadequacy and dissatisfaction on the timeliness of water distribution are the potential sources of conflicts, whereas the ability of farmers to pay irrigation fees and the acceptance of a fee system are the major concerns about the financial support for irrigation operation and maintenance. The accountability of a water user's association is the main factor influencing the success of an institutional role in the sustainability of rice production.
Qualitative research analyzes data from direct fieldwork observations, in-depth, open-ended interviews, and written documents. Qualitative researchers engage in naturalistic inquiry, studying real-world settings inductively to generate rich narrative descriptions and construct case studies. Inductive analysis across cases yields patterns and themes, the fruit of qualitative research.
There are two main policy responses to climate: prevention of climate change (mitigation) through reducing emissions and coping with its effects (adaptation). Mitigation has been given more priority in climate negotiations to date. Because the impacts of climate change are likely to increase in the coming years and there is growing realisation that vulnerable countries and communities will be disproportionately adversely affected, much more attention is now being paid to adaptation than was previously the case, particularly by development organisations. Defining climate change and adaptation carefully is critical to ensuring the success of actions promoting how adaptation can be mainstreamed in development. Narrow definitions of climate change, which ignore climate variability and donor focus on looking at the "global environmental benefits" of adaptation will mean that the adaptation needs of the most vulnerable will not be met.
This paper argues for the distinctiveness of management research and develops a perspective concerning management research policy. It argues that the key defining characteristic of management research is its applied nature, and that its central concern should be ‘the general (engineering) problem of design’. Because a key goal of management research is to improve the relationship between theory and practice, a fundamental concern lies with its diverse nature and the consequential difficulty of integration of sub-disciplines, as well as with the issue of the relevance and the application of findings. As a policy paper, it aims to introduce a limited number of analytical frameworks in order to develop a policy position, thus helping frame the debate concerning the role of management research. Specifically, it achieves this, first by exploring the ontology of management research, examining its form, features, peculiarities and idiosyncrasies using Becher's conceptual schema for exploring the nature of disciplines; second by identifying a requisite form of social organization to support management research activity using the Gibbons et al. taxonomy of knowledge production systems; and finally, by identifying some conclusions, research policy implications, and suggesting a set of policy propositions concerning the conduct of management research.
Bali has figured prominently in debates on the question of whether irrigation centralizes state power. New evidence shows that irrigation is actually organized by networks of “water temples” that constitute an institutional system separate from the state. Earlier attempts to identify a discrete system of irrigation management misconceived the problem. For most crops, irrigation simply provides water for the plant's roots. But in a Balinese rice terrace, water is used to construct a complex, pulsed artificial ecosystem. Water temples manipulate the states of the system, at ascending levels in regional hierarchies. The permanence of water temple networks contrasts sharply with the instability of the traditional Balinese states. Since the water temples are real, perhaps it is the Balinese “state” that is chimerical.
This paper outlines selected approaches to measuring risk and vulnerability to hazards of natural origin using indicators and indices. It discusses their applicability, usefulness and policy implications. Indicators and indices have been developed on different scales and for different purposes. The paper will briefly introduce three global approaches to disaster-risk identification and will juxtapose them with one local approach in order to examine the differences concerning the functions and the purpose of the assessment as well as their impact for policy development. In contrast to an earlier comparative analysis of the three global disaster-risk indicator programmes by Mark Pelling in 2004, which focused primarily on the methodologies used, this paper places more emphasis on aspects of applicability and policy implications and outlines challenges and limitations of the different approaches. Since the assessment and mapping of human vulnerability is less developed than hazard assessment work [Pelling M., 2004. Visions of Risk: A Review of International Indicators of Disaster Risk and its Management. UNDP—Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery (BRCP), Geneva], this paper focuses in greater depth on how the approaches capture vulnerability. Conclusions will be formulated on how to further enhance vulnerability identification, particularly at the sub-national level.
This paper presents and applies a conceptual framework to address human vulnerability to climate change. Drawing upon social risk management and asset-based approaches, the conceptual framework provides a unifying lens to examine links between risks, adaptation, and vulnerability. The result is an integrated approach to increase the capacity of society to manage climate risks with a view to reduce the vulnerability of households and maintain or increase the opportunities for sustainable development. We identify ‘no-regrets’ adaptation interventions, meaning actions that generate net social benefits under all future scenarios of climate change and impacts. We also make the case for greater support for community-based adaptation and social protection and propose a research agenda.
Livestock husbandry is essential for Indonesia. This study reviews cattle characteristics and husbandry methods in the country with special interest in describing the importance of indigenous breeds of cattle. As a conclusion, the Bali cattle ought to be considered the most suitable indigenous cattle breed for the low-input, high stress production system still practised by millions of families in Indonesia.
The Maritime Continent, with its complex system of islands and shallow seas, presents a major challenge to models, which tend to systematically underestimate the precipitation in this region. Experiments with a climate version of the Met Office model (HadAM3) show that even with a threefold increase in horizontal resolution there is no improvement in the dry bias. It is argued that the diurnal cycle over the islands and the complex circulation patterns generated by land-sea contrasts are crucial for the energy and hydrological cycles of the Maritime Continent and for determining the mean climate. It is shown that the model has substantial errors in its simulation of the diurnal cycle over the islands, which can rectify onto the seasonal mean climate.It is further argued that deficient rainfall over the Maritime Continent could be a driver for other systematic errors, such as the excess precipitation over the western Indian Ocean. To demonstrate the sensitivity of global systematic model errors to the heating in this region, two experiments have been performed, one with the existing distribution of islands and a second where the island grid points are replaced by ocean grid points. In the absence of the islands of the Maritime Continent, the local precipitation increases by 15%, reducing the existing dry bias and bringing the model closer to observations. In response to this improved heating distribution, precipitation decreases over the west Indian Ocean and South Pacific convergence zone, reducing the systematic wet bias in these regions. This supports the hypothesis that tropical systematic errors are often related through vertical (Walker) circulations.The extratropical response to changes in the Maritime Continent heat source is also well demonstrated by these experiments. The enhanced heating and, hence, divergent outflow generates Rossby waves, which have a significant impact on the winter circulation and surface temperatures across much of North America and the northeast Eurasian region. These changes are such as to substantially reduce model systematic error in these regions. These results reinforce the critical role played by the Maritime Continent in the global circulation. It emphasizes the need for better representation of convective organization over regions of complex land-sea terrains and the importance of considering the global context of model systematic errors in which biases in the Tropics may be a key factor.
Climate in Bali: Rainfall variability in Sub-Joint Coordination Committee Meeting of Project for Capacity Development for Climate Change Strategies in Indonesia: Subproject 2 -Vulnerability Assessment
- E Makmur
Makmur, E. (2011). Climate in Bali: Rainfall variability in Sub-Joint Coordination Committee Meeting of Project for
Capacity Development for Climate Change Strategies in
Indonesia: Subproject 2 -Vulnerability Assessment, 16-18
March, Tuban.