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Climate change is a major challenge in wine production. Temperatures are increasing worldwide, and most regions are exposed to water deficits more frequently. Higher temperatures trigger advanced phenology. This shifts the ripening phase to warmer periods in the summer, which will affect grape composition, in particular with respect to aroma compounds. Increased water stress reduces yields and modifies fruit composition. The frequency of extreme climatic events (hail, flooding) is likely to increase. Depending on the region and the amount of change, this may have positive or negative implications on wine quality. Adaptation strategies are needed to continue to produce high-quality wines and to preserve their typicity according to their origin in a changing climate. The choice of plant material is a valuable resource to implement these strategies. (JEL Classifications: Q13, Q54)
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The Impact of Climate Change on Viticulture and
Wine Quality*
Cornelis van Leeuwen
and Philippe Darriet
Climate change is a major challenge in wine production. Temperatures are increasing world-
wide, and most regions are exposed to water decits more frequently. Higher temperatures
trigger advanced phenology. This shifts the ripening phase to warmer periods in the summer,
which will affect grape composition, in particular with respect to aroma compounds. Increased
water stress reduces yields and modies fruit composition. The frequency of extreme climatic
events (hail, ooding) is likely to increase. Depending on the region and the amount of change,
this may have positive or negative implications on wine quality. Adaptation strategies are
needed to continue to produce high-quality wines and to preserve their typicity according
to their origin in a changing climate. The choice of plant material is a valuable resource to
implement these strategies. (JEL Classications: Q13, Q54)
Keywords: Climate change, temperature, water decit, wine quality, wine typicity.
I. Introduction
The reality of climate change is admitted by the vast majority of the scientic
community (IPCC, 2014). Among human activities, agriculturein particular
viticultureis highly dependent upon climatic conditions during the growing
season. Hence, wine production is obviously affected by climate change. Return
on investment in most agricultural production is driven by yield, thus it is relevant
to study the impact of climate change on yield parameters. Return on investment
in wine production is driven as much by sales prices, based on quality and reputa-
tion, as by yield. In viticulture, it is thus important to study the implications of
We thank Marc and Matthieu Dubernet for the data on grape composition in the Languedoc (Figure 2)
and Alexandre Pons for the massoia lactone data (Figure 4).
Bordeaux Sciences Agro, ISVV, UMR Ecophysiologie et Génomique Fonctionnelle de la Vigne n° 1287,
F-33140 Villenave dOrnon, France; e-mail: (corresponding author).
Université de Bordeaux, Unité de recherche Œnologie, ESC 1366 INRA, ISVV, F-33140 Villenave
dOrnon, France; e-mail:
Journal of Wine Economics, Volume 11, Number 1, 2016, Pages 150167
© American Association of Wine Economists, 2016
climate change not only on yield but also on quality (e.g., Ashenfelter and
Storchmann, 2016; Oczkowski, 2016). In this paper, we address the impact of
climate change on vine phenology and development, grape and wine composition,
and wine typicity according to origin. Some of these changes have already occurred
and can be quantied; others are predictable in the coming decades.
II. The Effect of Climate on Wine Production
Climate is a major factor in wine production. In the scientic literature, many papers
address the effect of climate. Vines are grown in a wide variety of climatic situations.
However, a majority of the major wine-growing regions are located between the 35th
and the 50th parallels in the Northern Hemisphere and between the 30th and the
45th parallels in the Southern Hemisphere. It is virtually impossible to produce
high-quality wines in tropical or subtropical regions. Wine growing is also complicat-
ed at high latitudes because of injury caused by spring or winter frost and because of
a loss of bud fertility at low temperatures. Each of the main wine-producing regions
can be characterized by mean climatic conditions, which are well described in
Gladstones (2011). These climatic conditions are a major driver of wine typicity in
relation to its origin (van Leeuwen and Seguin, 2006). Among environmental
factors, climate has a greater impact on vine development and fruit composition
compared to soil and grapevine variety (van Leeuwen et al., 2004). In a given
wine-producing region, climatic conditions vary from one year to the other. These
variations induce the vintage effect,year-to-year variations in yield, quality, and
typicity. Growers have chosen plant materials (variety, clone, and rootstock) accord-
ing to local climatic conditions in order to optimize the compromise between yield
and quality. Viticultural practices can be modied to adapt to climatic variability
among vintages.
A. Temperatures
Vine phenologythat is, the date on which bud break, owering, and véraison
(onset of ripening) occuris driven by temperature. This relation is so strong that
vine phenology can be predicted by models that are based only on temperature
(Parker et al., 2011). Temperature also affects fruit ripening. Sugar accumulation in-
creases with temperature (Coombe, 1987), but certain secondary metabolites, like
anthocyanins, are negatively affected by high temperature (Kliewer and Torres,
1972). Grape acidity, in particular the malic acid content, decreases in high temper-
ature (Coombe, 1987).
B. Water Status
Vine water status depends on soil texture, percentage of stones, rooting depth, rain-
fall, reference evapotranspiration (ET
), and leaf area. Water decit impairs
Cornelis van Leeuwen and Philippe Darriet 151
photosynthesis (Hsiao, 1973), and shoot growth (Lebon et al., 2006) and reduces
berry size (Trégoat et al., 2002; van Leeuwen and Seguin, 1994). It increases grape
tannin and anthocyanin content (Duteau et al., 1981; Matthews and Anderson,
1988; van Leeuwen and Seguin, 1994). Excessive water decit stress can lead to
damage on leaves and stuck grape ripening.
C. Radiation
As long as water is not a limiting factor, vine photosynthesis increases with light in-
tensity until one-third of maximal radiation and then levels off (Kriedemann and
Smart, 1971). Contradictory results have been published on the impact of light on
grape phenolics, probably because it is difcult to separate the effect of light from
that of temperature. In a eld study with an adapted experimental design, Spayd
et al. (2002) showed that the amount of anthocyanin in grape skins increases with
light but is negatively affected by high temperature.
III. Climate Change
Most scientists have admitted the reality of climate change, caused by human activ-
ities and in particular the emission of greenhouse gases, since the 1990s. The main
measurable effect of climate change is a steady increase in temperature. This is ob-
served worldwide, although signicant differences in the rate of heating exist from
one region to another (Schar et al., 2004). Depending on the scenario of greenhouse
gas emissions, temperatures are predicted to increase by from 1 °C to 3.7 °C until the
end of the century, compared to the reference period 19852005 (IPCC, 2014). Less
consensus exists concerning a modication in rainfall patterns. Rainfall is a discon-
tinuous phenomenon, and tendencies can be assessed only over very long periods
(several decades). Moreover, it is likely that modications in rainfall will differ
from one region to another (IPCC, 2014). However, vine water status is driven as
much by evapotranspiration as by rainfall (Lebon et al., 2003; see discussions in
companion paper, Gambetta, 2016). Evapotranspiration increases with temperature.
Hence, a warmer climate is also a dryer climate, even when rainfall does not decrease.
Climate change will also increase radiation and the frequency of extreme weather
events (IPCC, 2014).
IV. The Impact of Increasing Temperatures on Vine Development, Fruit
Composition, and Wine Quality
A. Measurable Effects
An increase in temperature, which is one of the major consequences of climate
change, triggers an advance in phenology. Since the 1980s, harvest dates have ad-
vanced by two weeks in Alsace (Duchêne et al., 2005) and Bordeaux, France
152 The Impact of Climate Change on Viticulture and Wine Quality
(Figure 1A). In northern (Alsace) or Atlantic (Bordeaux) wine-growing regions,
growers take advantage of warmer conditions to pick fruit at greater levels of ripe-
ness (Figure 1B). Hence, the advance in harvest date is less compared to the real
advance in phenology. In Mediterranean conditions, increasing the ripeness levels
of grapes is not needed. This explains why the advance in harvest dates is greater
in this situation (approximately four weeks for Châteauneuf du Pape, Figure 1C).
Figure 1A
Harvest Dates in an Estate in Saint-Emilion from 1892 to 2014
Fig. 1a - Colour online, B/W in print
Source: ONERC, 2014.
Figure 1B
Duration from Véraison to Harvest from 1988 to 2014 from a Block of Cabernet Franc in the
Saint-Emilion Area (Bordeaux, France)
Note: The length
Fig. 1b - B/W online, B/W in print
of the ripening period increased by 20 days over 25 years. An exception to this tendency was 2013, when growers picked
relatively early because of Botrytis pressure.
Cornelis van Leeuwen and Philippe Darriet 153
In any case, grapes ripen in warmer conditions because of climate change, not only
because the climate is warming up but also because phenology is advanced.
Data from the Dubernet laboratory (11100 Montredon-Corbières, France) shows
that there has been a signicant evolution in grape composition at harvest over the
past 30 years (Figure 2). This data is based on thousands of samples analyzed every
year. Potential alcohol levels increased by more than 2% by volume, total acidity de-
creased by 1 g tartrate/L and pH increased by 0.2 units. Similar modications in
grape composition have been reported at many other vineyards (Duchêne and
Schneider, 2005; Mira de Ordunia, 2010). It is likely that this evolution is not only
the result of an increase in temperature. Other factors include increased atmospheric
carbon dioxide (CO
) (+15% over the period), increased radiation, improved
Figure 1C
Harvest Dates in Châteauneuf du Pape from 1945 to 2012
Source: ONERC,
Fig. 1c - B/W online, B/W in print
Figure 2
Potential Alcohol Levels, Total Acidity and pH of Grape Juice Just Prior to Harvest in
Languedoc from 1984 to 2013
Source: Dubernet
Fig. 2 - B/W online, B/W in print
laboratory, 11100 Montredon-Corbières.
154 The Impact of Climate Change on Viticulture and Wine Quality
viticultural techniques, and longer hangtime(Figure 1B). More research is needed
to quantify the impact of each of these factors in modied grape composition at
B. Predictable Effects
It is possible to model predicted phenology by using temperature projections until
the end of the century. Flowering in Bordeaux (France) will be advanced by 15
days in the near future (20202050) and by 30 days at the end of the century
(20702100, Figure 3). Ripeness will be advanced by 25 and 45 days, respectively
(Pieri, 2010). This would mean harvest in the rst week of September in two
decades and around mid-August by the end of the century. These early harvest
dates are incompatible with the production of great terroir wines (van Leeuwen
and Seguin, 2006).
It is quite easy to model phenology based on predicted temperatures, but predict-
ing grape composition as a result of changing climatic conditions in the years to
come is much less obvious. However, it is very likely that the already observed
trend in grape composition (Figure 2) will continue. Increased sugar levels in
grapes yield wines with a higher alcohol level. The best possible alcohol level for
quality may vary with the concentration in other compounds like organic acids
and the style of the wine targeted by the producer. Wine quality can be impaired
when alcohol level is too low but also when the alcohol level is too high. Until the
early 1980s, wine quality was altered in most situations by having an alcohol level
that was too low. Hence, wine quality beneted from increased sugar levels in
grapes. Today it has become more common to harvest grapes with a potential
Figure 3
Modeled Mean Flowering and Harvest Dates
Note: Modeled
Fig. 3 - B/W online, B/W in print
mean owering (A) and harvest dates (B) for Merlot in Avignon (avi),Bordeaux (bor), Colmar (col), Dijon (dij) and Toulouse
(tou). All towns located in France. RP = Recent Past (19712000), NF = Near Future (20202050) and DF = Distant Future (20702100).
Adapted from Pieri (2010).
Cornelis van Leeuwen and Philippe Darriet 155
alcohol level of over 14%, which, for most wines, is too high for optimum quality.
Regarding acidity, the most relevant indicator is must and wine pH. Wines are per-
ceived as being rounder, sweeter, and less aggressive when pH increases. Most con-
sumers consider this a positive change. However, wines can lack freshness when
pH is too high, and it can also impair stability. The wild yeast Brettanomyces brux-
ellensis can spoil wine during aging in barrels or tanks, even after bottling, when pH
is high (Lonvaud-Funel et al., 2010). Higher levels of sulfur dioxide (SO
) have to be
added to stabilize wines when pH is high.
With respect to aroma, concentrations of 2-methoxy-3-isobutyl-methoxypyrazine
(IBMP, responsible for bell pepper aroma in wine) in grapes decrease with temper-
ature (Falcão et al., 2007). However, other factors, such as fruit exposure, also
play an important role in grape IBMP content (Koch et al., 2012). It is frequently
observed that wines produced in warm climates from vines with dense canopies
can show a vegetal character. Rotundone levels in grapes, responsible for the
peppery aroma of Syrah wines, decrease with temperature (Scarlett et al., 2014).
Hence, wines produced from Syrah grapes will exhibit this characteristic less fre-
quently when temperatures increase. However, 1,1,6-trimethyl-1,2-dihydronaphtha-
lene (TDN), the compound responsible for petrol avors in wines produced from
Riesling grapes, increases with temperature during the berry-ripening phase
(Marais et al., 1992). Contrasting results are reported for aromas from the terpenol
family. Linalol content in berries is impaired at high temperatures, while no detri-
mental effect is shown on geraniol content (Duchêne, personal communication,
2015). Massoia lactone (5,6-dihydro-6-pentyl-2(2H)-pyranone) is the characteristic
aroma of gs and coconut that can be found in wines produced from overripe
fruit. In Bordeaux, Pons et al. (2011) found more massoia lactone in Pomerol
wines, produced from a majority of Merlot grapes, in warm vintages, whether
they are dry (2003) or wet (2007) (Figure 4).
Figure 4
Level of 5,6-Dihydro-6-Pentyl-2(2H)-Pyranone for Selected Vintages
Note: Level of
Fig. 4 - B/W online, B/W in print
5,6-dihydro-6-pentyl-2(2H)-pyranone (called massoia lactone) in wine produced in a Pomerol estate (Bordeaux) for the vin-
tages 1999 to 2008 (Pons et al., 2011).
156 The Impact of Climate Change on Viticulture and Wine Quality
V. The Impact of Increasing Water Decits on Vine Development, Fruit
Composition, and Wine Quality
A. Measurable Effects
Water balance modeling is an appropriate tool for estimating vine water decits in a
specic block or vintage. In Table 1, water decit was modeled for the Saint-Emilion
region (Bordeaux, France) according to Lebon et al. (2003) for 61 vintages from
Table 1
Classication of 61 Vintages from Driest to Wettest in Saint-Emilion
Sept 30
1 to 20) Vintage
Sept 30
1 to 20)
2005 365.55 3/8 20 2002 164.22 10/8 16
2010 320.08 7/8 19 1967 157.55 19/8 14
2011 309.19 21/7 16 1976 150.51 7/8 16
1989 307.26 4/8 19 1984 149.61 20/8 12
1990 306.43 6/8 19 1955 148.85 12/8 18
2012 305.33 8/8 16 1981 145.59 20/8 16
2003 304.65 27/7 18 1953 144.41 14/8 18
2000 289.60 6/8 19 1974 142.73 19/8 12
1986 270.95 9/8 18 1994 132.02 6/8 15
1998 256.04 7/8 17 1952 128.59 3/8 17
2004 251.27 9/8 17 1980 125.94 3/9 13
1995 241.39 10/8 17 1983 125.89 19/8 17
2009 241.18 3/8 19 1975 120.27 20/8 17
1962 230.57 22/8 17 1957 119.00 19/8 12
1964 220.22 14/8 17 1982 113.65 9/8 19
2008 212.22 11/8 18 1972 108.44 1/9 10
1997 211.23 31/7 15 1959 86.80 10/8 19
1988 211.00 17/8 17 1977 86.59 2/9 11
1970 210.04 21/8 18 1993 80.00 9/8 14
2007 209.52 26/7 16 1954 79.91 28/8 9
1961 206.65 7/8 20 1971 40.08 21/8 17
2001 206.28 12/8 17 1956 39.20 28/8 9
1991 205.57 20/8 13 1968 32.72 23/8 6
1985 198.05 16/8 18 1958 31.48 24/8 12
2006 196.21 4/8 18 1969 13.70 24/8 12
1987 181.46 16/8 14 1973 12.36 13/8 12
1979 179.04 25/8 16 1965 10.85 27/8 3
1999 174.19 4/8 16 1963 7.50 25/8 3
1996 170.97 10/8 18 1992 3.60 14/8 12
1978 169.90 2/9 17 1960 0.80 7/8 12
1966 164.90 13/8 17
Note: Classication of 61 vintages from the driest to the wettest by water balance modeling between April 1 and September 30 in the
Saint-Emilion region (Bordeaux, France). Water balance model according to Lebon et al. (2003). Parameters: Soil Water Holding
Capacity =0 mm; no stomatal regulation. Vintage quality ratings according to Bordeaux wine brokers Tasted and Lawton.
Cornelis van Leeuwen and Philippe Darriet 157
1952 to 2012. To emphasize the effect of climate in the models results, we used a soil
water holding capacity of 0 mm and ignored possible stomatal regulation. For this
reason, values are negative; the more negative the value, the dryer the vintage.
Over the period considered, vintages become dryer (Figure 5), not necessarily
because of decreased rainfall but more certainly because evapotranspiration increas-
es with higher temperatures. Among the 20 driest vintages in 61 years, 10 occurred in
the period 20002012. At the same time, overall quality of the vintage, as rated by the
Bordeaux wine brokers Tasted and Lawton (33000 Bordeaux, France), increases with
the level of water decit. The correlation between quality and water decit is highly
signicant (R
= 0.54, Figure 6). Over the same period, vintage quality is much less
correlated to the average temperature from April to October (R
= 0.26). In
Bordeaux, all dry years are good or great vintages. If modeled water decit is over
220 mm from April 1 to September 30, quality is equal to or higher than 16/20.
This does not mean that all wet vintages are necessarily poor vintages. Some wet vin-
tages have been saved by a particularly dry and sunny September. This analysis
shows that, over the past years, average vintage quality in Bordeaux improved,
not necessarily because of higher temperature but, rather, because of dryer produc-
tion conditions. However, these two factors are not completely independent, because
high temperatures induce high evapotranspiration. Water decit improves quality
potential for the production of red wine because it induces early cessation of shoot
growth, reduces berry size, and enhances skin phenolics in grapes (van Leeuwen
et al., 2009). These results from the Bordeaux area cannot automatically be repro-
duced in dryer regions, where yield and quality may suffer from excessive water
stress, in particular in soils with low water-holding capacity.
The impact of climate change on aromas and aroma precursors is compound
specic. Berry content in volatile thiole precursors is reduced by water stress,
while it can be increased by moderate water decit (Peyrot des Gachons et al.,
Figure 5
Evolution of Water Balance from 1952 to 2012 for Saint-Emilion
Note: Evolution of
Fig. 5 - Colour online, B/W in print
water balance from 1952 to 2012 calculated between April 1 and 3 September 0 for the Saint-Emilion region (France).
Water balance model according to Lebon et al. (2003). Parameters: Soil Water Holding Capacity = 0 mm; no stomatal regulation.
158 The Impact of Climate Change on Viticulture and Wine Quality
2005). This result was conrmed for Riesling by Schüttler et al. (2011,2013) in semi-
controlled conditions (Figure 7). Volatile thiole content was not signicantly
modied by grape exposure, neither by leaf pulling pre-véraison nor by leaf
pulling at véraison. In this study, monoterpenes, another family of aroma com-
pounds, were not affected by vine water status.
Koundouras et al. (2006) reported increased norisoprenoid C13 levels in grapes
under water decit conditions. However, this might be an indirect effect linked to
Figure 6
Correlation Between Vintage Quality and Water Balance in Saint-Emilion
Note: Correlation between
Fig. 6 - Colour online, B/W in print
vintage quality in Bordeaux and water balance calculated between April 1 and September 30 for the vintages from
1952 to 2012 in Saint-Emilion (Bordeaux, France). Water balance model according to Lebon et al. (2003). Parameters: Soil Water Holding
Capacity = 0 mm; no stomatal regulation. Vintage quality ratings according to Bordeaux wine brokers Tasted and Lawton.
Figure 7
3-Sulfanylhexane-1-ol Content in Wine
Note: Wine
Fig. 7 - B/W online, B/W in print
content in 3-sulfanylhexane-1-ol as modied by water status and grape exposure. (C) Control with high water decit ; (I) mod-
erately irrigated vines, resulting in mild water decit ; (IdB) irrigated vines with pre-véraison leaf pulling et (IdV) irrigated vines with leaf
pulling at véraison (Schüttler et al., 2011, 2013).
Cornelis van Leeuwen and Philippe Darriet 159
reduced vigor and increased bunch exposure. In dry vintages in the Bordeaux area,
Sauvignon blanc grapes contain more avane-3-ols and less glutathione (Figure 8).
Glutathione has anti-oxydative properties and increases aging potential in white
B. Predictable Effects in Climate Change Scenarios
Higher temperatures will increase evapotranspiration. Modications in rainfall pat-
terns are difcult to predict. It is likely that rainfall will be subject to great regional
and temporal variations. In some regions, rainfall will be higher, while other regions
might be experience longer periods of drought. Rainfall distribution over the year
might also be subject to major changes. Hence, it is difcult to predict the impact
of climate change on water balance. Moreover, the reproductive cycle of the vine
will be compressed in warmer conditions. When the harvest takes place earlier in
the season (i.e., in August in the Northern Hemisphere), the most intense period
of water stress will occur after the harvest (Ollat et al., 2013). Despite these uncer-
tainties, most wine-growing regions will be subject to increased water decits
because of the weight of evapotranspiration in the water balance (see discussion in
companion paper, Schultz, 2016). The rst impact of water decit is reduced yield,
because of a smaller berry size (Ollat et al., 2002) and reduced bud fertility
(Guilpart et al., 2014). All wine-growing regions in the world will experience
reduced yields, although the magnitude might vary. The impact of increasing
water decits on wine quality will vary. In red wine production, water decit (but
not severe stress) enhances quality. For instance, in Bordeaux, to date overall
vintage quality has never been jeopardized by excessive water decit, even in an ex-
tremely dry vintage such as 2005, when rainfall was close to half that of a normal
year. As in Bordeaux, red wine quality will increase with developing water decits
in most Atlantic and northern wine-growing regions in Europe. In Mediterranean
or other very dry climates, quality might suffer from excessive water stress, which
Figure 8
Glutathione Content of Sauvignon Blanc Grape Must at Harvest
Note: Glutathione
Fig. 8 - B/W online, B/W in print
content of Sauvignon blanc grape must at harvest in two Graves estates (Bordeaux) in vintages from 2002 to 2007 (Pons
et al., 2014).
160 The Impact of Climate Change on Viticulture and Wine Quality
can lead to impaired photosynthesis and leaf necrosis, in particular on soils with low
water-holding capacity. However, no serious study has been published on the fre-
quency of situations in which quality might benet from more water decits
versus those in which quality might suffer. This sort of investigation would be a
welcome contribution to the literature and very useful for growers in developing
adaptive strategies.
VI. The Impact of Increasing Radiation on Vine Development, Fruit
Composition, and Wine Quality
A. Measurable Effects
Over the past few decades, radiation has been steadily increasing, in particular UV-B
radiation (280320 nm). However, the extent of this phenomenon reported in the lit-
erature varies according to the region and the author. The UV-B radiation increase is
about 12% per decade, but can reach 8% per decade at higher altitudes (Schultz,
2000). Higher UV-B radiation enhances color, avonol, and tannin synthesis
in red grapes (Berli et al., 2008; Martinez-Lüscher et al., 2014), but can induce
off-avors in white grapes, such as o-Acetoaminophenone and 1,1,6-trimethyl-1,2-
dihydronaphthalene (TDN) (Schultz, 2000).
B. Predictable Effects
An increase in radiation can cause sunburn on grapes, particularly in the pre-
véraison phase. An increase in UV-B radiation might be favorable in red wine pro-
duction because of increased skin phenolics but can impair white wine quality and
induce atypical aging. The proportion of UV-B radiation is related to changes in
the ozone layer.
VII. Adaptations to Limit the Impact of Climate Change on Wine Quality
A. Adaptations to Increased Temperatures
Harvest is taking place earlier in the season as a result of increased temperatures.
This has increased wine quality in many regions, because grapes can be picked
when they are more mature. However, when ripeness is reached too early in the
season (July or August in the Northern Hemisphere, January or February in the
Southern Hemisphere) grape composition is unbalanced and wine quality is jeopar-
dized. This evolution is currently taking place, in particular in production regions
with warm climates. To avoid quality alterations caused by high temperatures
during fruit ripening, phenology should be delayed.
Plant material is a major tool for reaching this goal. Growers can use rootstocks
that induce a longer cycle, and clonal selection should be oriented toward
Cornelis van Leeuwen and Philippe Darriet 161
late-ripening clones. These adaptations will not change wine typicity. Together, they
can delay ripeness by approximately seven to ten days. Over the long term, ripeness
can be delayed much more by the use of late-ripening varieties. Late-ripening vari-
eties can be found among the traditional varieties in some wine-growing regions.
This is the case with Cabernet-Sauvignon in Bordeaux and Mourvèdre in
Languedoc-Roussillon (France). When the climate becomes too warm for Merlot
in Bordeaux and for Syrah in Languedoc, the proportion of Cabernet-Sauvignon
and Mourvèdre, respectively, can be increased in these regions, without altering
the wine style. In the long run, it might be necessary to use nonlocal varieties.
These varieties must be chosen in order to change the wine style produced in each
region as little as possible. This adaptation is obviously easier to implement in
New World wine-growing regions than in European countries with traditional appel-
lations. Today, in these appellations, growers can only use local varieties. It might be
worthwhile to start experimenting with a small proportion of nonlocal varieties, in
order to have accumulated enough experience by the time a major change in varieties
becomes unavoidable.
Training systems can be modied to delay phenology. Higher trunks can reduce
the temperature in the bunch zone and, in particular, limit maximum temperatures
on dry and stony soils. Late pruning (end of February or March in the Northern
Hemisphere) delays bud break and subsequent phenological stages. Low leaf area:
fruit weight ratios delay véraison (Parker et al., 2014). However, it can have a neg-
ative impact on fruit composition and, in particular, reduce the tannin and anthocy-
anin content in grape berries. These are key compounds in red wine quality.
Wine-growing regions can be moved to higher latitudes, and in mountainous
regions, vineyards can be moved to higher altitudes. However, these adaptations
have a high social and economic cost. Regions located at high latitudes, which
might currently be marginal for wine production, will become suitable for grape
growing. Several studies focus on when and where this is likely to happen (Ferrise
et al., 2016; Fraga et al., 2012; Hannah et al., 2013; Roehrdanz and Hannah,
2016). The authorsin particular, Hannah and colleaguesalso model the decrease
in suitability of current wine-growing regions. However, they seem to underestimate
possible adaptation, which can be implemented by growers to maintain high-quality
wine production in warmer temperatures (van Leeuwen et al., 2013). When varia-
tions in altitude are signicant in the production region, which is the case, for in-
stance, in the Douro region (port wine production), grapevine can be planted at
higher elevations (Jones and Alves, 2012). Temperatures decrease by 0.65 °C per
100 m gain in elevation.
B. Adaptations to Increased Water Decits
The choice of plant material is a major tool to adapt vineyards to greater water
decits. Rootstock resistance to water decits is highly variable (Carbonneau,
1985). The genetic basis of these differences is currently under investigation
162 The Impact of Climate Change on Viticulture and Wine Quality
(Marguerit et al., 2012). Some existing rootstocks, like 140 Ruggeri or 110 Richter,
are highly resistant to drought. One of the priorities of todays viticultural research is
to create new rootstocks that show even greater drought resistance. In the same way,
large differences in drought tolerance exist among grapevine varieties (Albuquerque,
1993; see also discussion in companion paper, Gambetta, 2016). Mediterranean va-
rieties, such as Grenache or Carignan, are better adapted to dry conditions than
Atlantic varieties, such as Merlot or Sauvignon blanc. The great advantage of adapt-
ing vineyards to increased drought stress through the choice of plant material (root-
stock and variety) is that it is environmentally friendly and does not increase
production costs.
Training systems also vary with respect to their impact on water consumption by
the vines. In the Mediterranean region, over centuries growers have developed a
training system that has great drought-resistant performance: the so-called gobelet
(Mediterranean bush vines). This system limits vine water use by combining low
leaf area on a per-hectare basis (which means less transpiration) and relatively low
yields (lower need for photosynthesis). The low yield does not negatively affect eco-
nomic sustainability, because the production costs per hectare are low. There is no
trellis to set up and maintain, and no shoot positioning has to be carried out.
Hence, grapes are produced at reasonably low cost per kilogram. The main draw-
back of this system is that it makes harvesting by machine very difcult. The
paradox is that, for this reason, many drought- resistant gobelet vineyards are
being pulled up just when it should be a priority to focus on drought resistance
because of climate change. One of todays research priorities should be the develop-
ment of a mechanical harvester that is able to harvest gobelet vineyards. Any other
training system that limits leaf area per hectare increases drought resistance.
However, the leaf area: fruit weight ratio should not be reduced to maintain
quality. Hence, a lower leaf area per hectare will either decrease yield (if the ratio
is maintained) or quality (if the yield is maintained).
Vine water status is related both to climatic factors (rainfall and ET
) and soil-
related factors (soil water-holding capacity [SWHC]). Increased climatic dryness,
whether through a reduction in rainfall or an increase in ET
, can be compensated
for by an increase in the SWHC. In dry regions, or regions exposed to increased
drought, the development of vineyards on soils with at least a moderate SWHC
can limit the negative impact of excessive water stress, as long as winter rains is suf-
cient to replenish the soil water storage capacity.
Irrigation is also a way to avoid excessive drought stress. However, it should not be
considered the rst option when adapting a vineyard to increased water decits.
Unlike the other solutions proposed here, irrigation has an economic, environmen-
tal, and social cost. When water is becoming increasingly scarce, the irrigation of a
drought-resistant plant such as vines should not be a priority. In many irrigated
regions, in particular in California and Australia, access to irrigation water has
become a serious issue. Moreover, irrigation can lead salt to build up in vineyard
soils, when winter rain is insufcient for leaching it out of the soil. Vines are
Cornelis van Leeuwen and Philippe Darriet 163
highly sensitive to salt, so its buildup can make soils unsuitable for grape production.
When irrigation is the only option for maintaining vineyards in a given area, decit
irrigation should be implemented, both to save water and to optimize grape quality
C. Adaptations to High Radiation Levels
Excess radiation exposure can cause sunburn. A high proportion of UV-B radiation
is favorable to synthesis of skin phenolics (color, tannin) but can impair white wine
quality through the development of off-avors. High-altitude vineyards are affected
more than vineyards at sea level. The detrimental impact of high radiation can be
limited by using adapted training systems or canopy management. The exposure
of grapes can be limited through reduced hedging and leaf pulling. Special nets
that can lter UV-B radiation have also been developed and can be used to
protect the bunch zone.
VIII. Conclusion
Climate change is a major challenge for viticulture in the coming decades. In the recent
past, wine quality has increased in most wine-growing regions because of higher tem-
peratures and more frequent water decits while yields have decreased. If the tendency
continues, quality might be negatively affected in the near future. Growers need to im-
plement adaptive strategies to continue the production of high-quality wines at eco-
nomically acceptable yields in a warmer and dryer climate. Among various options,
the use of adapted plant material is one of the better tools, because it has the advantage
of being environmentally friendly and cost effective.
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... Temperature rises due to global warming have been reshaping the dynamics of grapevine harvest and wine production worldwide by globally increasing seasonal heat accumulation (Santos et al., 2020;Venios et al., 2020), a variable often assessed through the sum of GDDs. Increases in GDD accumulation have been shown to accelerate plant development and advance grapevine phenology (leading to earlier harvest dates), shorten the time between bud break and flowering, increase the concentration of sugars, and decrease the acidity content of berries (Mira de Orduña, 2010;van Leeuwen and Darriet, 2016;Cameron et al., 2021). However, in addition to temperature rises, larger temperature ranges throughout the growing season could also have a potential impact on plant growth, phenology, and metabolism (Barnuud et al., 2014). ...
... Climate change will likely modify viticulture practices and further impact wine properties in the near future (van Leeuwen and Darriet, 2016). In northern areas such as Eastern Canada, temperatures have been predicted to increase noticeably (Vasseur and Catto, 2008) but, as longer growing seasons happen more often, larger variations in temperature patterns during the season could make it even more challenging to properly ripen berries year after year. ...
Full-text available
Volatile compounds (VCs) in grapevine berries play an important role in wine quality; however, such compounds and vine development can be sensitive to environmental conditions. Due to this sensitivity, changes in temperature patterns due to global warming are likely to further impact grape production and berry composition. The aim of this study was to determine the possible effects of different growing-degree day accumulation patterns on berry ripening and composition at harvest. An experimental field was conducted using Vitis sp. L'Acadie blanc, in Nova Scotia, Canada. Using on-the-row mini-greenhouses, moderate temperature increase and reduced ultraviolet (UV) exposure were triggered in grapevines during pre-veraison (inflorescence to the beginning of berry softening), post-veraison (berry softening to full maturity), and whole season (inflorescence to full maturity), while controls were left without treatment. Free and bound VCs were extracted from berries sampled at three different phenological stages between veraison and maturity before analysis by gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC-MS). Berries from grapevines exposed to higher temperatures during early berry development (pre-veraison and whole) accumulated significantly higher concentrations of benzene derivatives 2-phenylethanol and benzyl alcohol at harvest, but lower concentrations of hydroxy-methoxy-substituted volatile phenols, terpenes, and C13-norisoprenoids than the control berries. These results illustrate the importance of different environmental interactions in berry composition and suggest that temperature could potentially modulate phenylpropanoid and mevalonate metabolism in developing berries. This study provides insights into the relationships between abiotic conditions and secondary metabolism in grapevine and highlights the significance of early developmental stages on berry quality at harvest.
... Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere, respectively (Leeuwen and Darriet, 2016). Environmental 31 factors affect greatly wine production. ...
... Among environmental factors, the climate is a significant 32 contributor to vine development compared to grapevine variety and soil (Leeuwen et al., 2004). Thus, 33 producers select plant materials according to local climatic conditions to optimize the compromise 34 between quality and yield (Leeuwen and Darriet, 2016). The wine sector produces primarily two types 35 of wine, still wine and sparkling wine, with still wine dominating the market. ...
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The largest wine producers globally are located in Southern Europe and climate is a major factor in wine production. The European Union aims to complement the consumer’s choice for wine with information about environmental sustainability. The carbon footprint is a worldwide-standardized indicator that both wine producers and consumers perceive as the most important environmental indicator. So far, environmental life cycle assessment studies show variability in the system boundaries design and functional unit selection, and review papers do not include life cycle inventory data, and consider vineyards in various locations worldwide. This study aimed to investigate what are the key factors affecting the carbon footprint of red and white wine production in South European countries with the same climatic conditions, and benchmark both wine types. The results showed that the carbon footprints of white and red wines are comparable. The average carbon footprints were 1.02, 1.25, and 1.62 CO2 eq.bottle of wine ⁻¹ for organic red wine, conventional red wine, and conventional white wine, respectively. The viticulture, winemaking, and packaging stages affect greatly the carbon footprint. Diesel consumption at the viticulture stage, electricity consumption at the viticulture and winemaking stages, and glass production at the packaging stage are the largest contributors to the carbon footprint. Wine consumption stage was omitted from most studies, even though it can increase the carbon footprint by 5%. Our results suggest that consumers should choose (conventional or organic) red wine that is produced locally.
... The climatic scenario for the region, which involves increased drought and raised temperatures, will have consequences for vine development, such as the earlier appearance of the different phenological stages; indeed, this is already taking place [6,7]. Changes may also occur at the physiological level, and the qualitative characteristics of the grapes and eventual wine will likely be affected [8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15]. Smaller yields can be expected in line with reductions in berry and bunch weight, together with restricted growth, smaller leaf surface areas (with early senescence and premature leaf fall), increased respiration and evapotranspiration, and reduced photosynthetic activity [3,[13][14][15][16][17]. ...
... Changes may also occur at the physiological level, and the qualitative characteristics of the grapes and eventual wine will likely be affected [8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15]. Smaller yields can be expected in line with reductions in berry and bunch weight, together with restricted growth, smaller leaf surface areas (with early senescence and premature leaf fall), increased respiration and evapotranspiration, and reduced photosynthetic activity [3,[13][14][15][16][17]. ...
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One alternative for adapting viticulture to high temperatures and the scarcity of water is the development of new varieties adapted to such conditions. This work describes six new genotypes, derived from “Monastrell” × “Cabernet Sauvignon” (MC16, MC19, MC72, MC80) and “Monastrell” × “Syrah” (MS104, MS49) crosses, grown under deficit irrigation and rainfed conditions in a semi-arid wine-producing area (Murcia, southeastern Spain). The effect of genotype, year, and irrigation treatment on the phenological, productiveness, morphological, and grape quality data was evaluated. The study material was obtained and selected as part of a breeding program run by the Instituto Murciano de Investigación y Desarollo Agrario y Medioambiental (IMIDA). The results obtained show that under rainfed conditions, the values for productive variables decreased, while those referring to the phenolic content increased. Notable variation in the parameters evaluated was also seen for the different genotypes studied. The behavior of the genotypes MC80 and MS104 under rainfed conditions was noteworthy. In addition to maintaining very adequate yields, phenolic contents, must pH, and total acidity values, MC80 fell into the best ‘phenolic quality group’ and MS104 returned a low º°Baumé value, ideal for the production of low-alcohol-content wines. These genotypes could favor the development of sustainable quality viticulture in dry and hot areas.
... Climate change is modifying the temporal distribution of rainfall, producing a situation of low rainfall, mainly concentrated in autumn and winter, and higher overall temperatures and summers with reduced precipitations, which leads to an advance of maturation and an imbalance between grape sugars and phenolic maturity [2], which affects the grape composition and decreases the wine quality [3]. This has produced a great concern in the winemaking sector [4,5]. ...
Climate change scenarios are predicting an increase in temperature as well as more scarce and torrential rainfall episodes. Due to this, an imbalance between grape technological and phenolic maturity is being observed, which detrimentally affects the grapes’ composition. In semi-arid areas, irrigation management is a main field practice used to influence grape ripening. The goal of the present study was to investigate the influence of vine irrigation on the aroma composition and sensory characteristics of La Mancha Chelva wines. Volatile compounds were studied by gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC/MS). A total of 75 aroma compounds were identified and quantified in Chelva wines elaborated with grapes of irrigated and non-irrigated vines. The results show that the application of irrigation during vine cultivation produced small changes in the concentration of wine volatile compounds. Nevertheless, it increased, in general, the intensity of the attributes of the main aroma sensory profile of the wines. According to the results, the vine irrigation of Chelva cultivated in the La Mancha region can be used as a method to increase the aroma of wines.
... Current studies indicate that this particular sub-region of the Douro PDO may be negatively affected in terms of viticultural productivity [43], particularly due to the increase in extreme weather events [42,44]. In effect, climate change impacts on viticulture are already being reported in different regions worldwide, such as the shift in phenology, higher sugar concentration, and late spring frost problems [45][46][47][48][49]. Although the grapevine is a very resilient species to adverse climatic conditions, future climates may threaten the winemaking economic revenue in this region [43]. ...
Climate-smart agriculture involves practices and crop modelling techniques aiming to provide practical answers to meet growers’ demands. For viticulturists, early prediction of harvest dates is critical for the success of cultural practices, which should be based on accurate planning of the annual growing cycle. We developed a modelling tool to assess the sugar concentration levels in the Douro Superior sub-region of the Douro wine region, Portugal. Two main cultivars (cv. Touriga-Nacional and Touriga-Francesa) grown in five locations across this sub-region were studied. Grape berry sugar data, with concentrations between 170 and 230 g L−1, were analyzed for the growing season campaigns, from 2014–2020, as an indicator of grape ripeness conditioned by temperature factors. Field data were collected by ADVID (“Associação Desenvolvimento Da Viticultura Duriense”), a regional winemaker association, and by Sogrape, the leading wine company from Portugal. The “Phenology Modeling Platform” was used for calibrating the model with sigmoid functions. Subsequently, model optimizations were performed to achieve a harmonized model, suitable for all estates. Model performance was assessed through two metrics: root mean square error (RMSE) and the Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (EFF). Both a leave-one-out cross-validation and a validation with an independent dataset (for 1991–2013) were carried out. Overall, our findings demonstrate that the model calibration achieved an average EFF of 0.7 for all estates and sugar levels, with an average RMSE < 6 days. Model validation, at one estate for 15 years, achieved an R2 of 0.93 and an RMSE < 5. These models demonstrate that air temperature has a high predictive potential of sugar ripeness, and ultimately of the harvest dates. These models were then used to build a standalone easy-to-use computer application (GSCM—Grapevine Sugar Concentration Model), which will allow growers to better plan and manage their seasonal activities, thus being a potentially valuable decision support tool in viticulture and oenology.
... The concentration of volatile compounds However, it could be assumed that as leaf area increases, so would the amount of solar radiation intercepted by grapevines and the amount of water consumption [22]. Given the projected climate change [23], with enhanced evapotranspiration demands and a higher number of days with severe heat stress under warmer climates [24], the study of different water levels may also have to be considered to ensure the future sustainability of viticultural yields in the case of VC. ...
Full-text available
In small-clustered vine cultivars, the conditions of success for a hanging form in order to guarantee a sufficient yield and quality level could go through establishing a permanent vertical cordon to enhance vine capacity and to retain a greater number of buds without making a canopy too compact. In this case, it is also important to quantify the main source–sink relationships within the vine in terms of the vine’s general responses to water shortage. The influence of two types of spur pruned vines (head-trained (HT) vs. vertical cordon trained (VCT)) was examined in field-grown vines in the local cultivar Maturana Blanca in order to achieve an optimal yield under two irrigation regimes (non-irrigated and irrigated at 30% of ET0). For this vegetative development, yield, fruit composition, and wine volatile compounds were measured. The VCT system has demonstrated to increase yield up to 1.8-fold as compared with the HT system independently of the irrigation regime. Although clear differences were observed in the source-sink ratios between the two training systems, these differences did not affect the ripening of the grapes nor their quality. However, a reduction in berry size and the more exposed clusters in VCT vines resulted in a higher concentration of aromatic compounds in the obtained wines as compared with those of HT vines. This study indicates the improvement of the source to sink ratio of the cv. Maturana Blanca through a change in the training system, which helps to increase light interception, leading to a higher yield potential, an optimization of the leaf area to fruit ratio, and an increase in the concentration of aromatic compounds.
... The use of drought-tolerant rootstocks has been considered a low-cost adaptive strategy to cope with the decrease in soil water availability in viticultural areas predicted under the context of global change (Fraga et al., 2013;van Leeuwen and Darriet, 2016). This study reports data recorded during one season regarding rootstock genotype effects on ecophysiological and agronomical responses to water deficit of field-grown Pinot noir under cool climatic conditions and how these effects could be related to vigour. ...
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Under the global warming scenario, water scarcity is expected to intensify in most grape-growing regions. The use of drought-tolerant rootstocks is considered a useful tool to mitigate the negative effects of soil water deficit on vine functioning. Differences in leaf gas exchange, plant water status, specific hydraulic conductivity in petioles (K petiole), xylem vessel size and vegetative vigour of field-grown Pinot noir grafted onto five rootstocks (3309C, 101-14 MGt, Kober 5BB, Riparia Gloire de Montpellier, 41B MGt) were investigated during one season under water deficit in Switzerland. The water deficit was imposed by installing waterproof and non-reflecting plastic sheets on the soil from March to harvest (September) to avoid rainfall infiltration. Rootstocks had stronger effects on vine water status than on gas exchanges. During the grape ripening stage, vines grafted onto 41B MGt and 101-14 MGt were characterised by more severe water stress as shown by the lowest values of pre-dawn leaf (Ψ pd), stem water potential (Ψ stem) and water stress integral (S Ψ), whereas 3309C and Kober 5BB rootstocks induced milder effects. Significant differences in photosynthesis (A), stomatal conductance (gs) and transpiration (E) were only observed between vines grafted onto 41B MGt and 3309C at later stages of ripening. Changes induced by rootstocks in shoot vigour, K petiole and the number and size of xylem vessels in petioles and stems were correlated to differential responses of Pinot noir to water deficit. The increased vegetative vigour induced by 3309C and Kober 5BB was associated with the highest K petiole , xylem vessel size and a good plant water status of Pinot noir under low soil water availability. Kober 5BB induced the highest yield, probably due to the better vine water status, whereas vines grafted onto 41B MGt showed the lowest malic acid content and yeast assimilable nitrogen in berries.
... Elevated temperature affects both primary (sugars, organic and amino acids) and secondary (polyphenols, aroma and aroma precursors) berry metabolite content (Rienth et al., 2021). In the past decades, berry sugar content at harvest has increased in many regions, whereas organic acid and anthocyanin content have decreased, leading to a balance that is less favourable to winemakers (Van Leeuwen & Darriet, 2016). These observations are likely the result of higher temperatures, which have been shown to decouple accumulation kinetics of anthocyanins and sugars in the berry, affecting the quality of red wines (Sadras & Moran, 2012). ...
To optimize vineyard management practices to adapt viticulture to climate change, knowledge of the regulation mechanism of metabolite accumulation under carbon source limitation and abscisic acid (ABA) application in grapes should be deepened. Here, carbon source limitations were imposed by reducing leaf area from 12 to 2 leaves per vine (at pea sized stage- 2L-P; or one week prior to veraison - 2L-V) and phloem girdling between the second and third leaf from bottom to top (one week prior to veraison - 12L-girdling) were compared for their effects on berry composition. All three modalities significantly reduced sugar, anthocyanin and ABA content in comparison with berries under sufficient carbon supply (12 leaves per vine, 12L), with 2L-V being the greatest. Allowing leaf area to partially recover (2L-R) or berry ABA application (400 mg. L⁻¹) one week before veraison increased the ratio of anthocyanin to sugar under source limitation. Combined with the analysis of berry metabolites and transcript abundances, our results indicate that source limitation and exogenous ABA co-regulated anthocyanins content through differential gene expression.
... This allows for the delineation of the areas favourable to this cultivar. DOY values below 255 (pink colour in Figure 7) indicate an early theoretical maturity, which does not discard grapevine cultivation, but might be challenging, specifically in a context of a warming climate, because the ripening process might lead to very high alcohol and low acidity (Jones et al., 2005;van Leeuwen and Darriet, 2016;Madelin et al., 2010). By contrast, DOY values above 295 (purple colour in Figure 7) denote a late theoretical maturity, indicating, therefore, that the grape is not mature enough to be harvested in time. ...
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In Belgium, vineyards have strongly increased over the last decades. Is it a trendy effect, or is Belgium becoming an increasingly favourable country for viticulture? A related issue is whether Belgium is similar to another French region from a climatic point of view. To address these questions, we use here the regional climate model MAR to provide high-resolution (5km) climate information over the territory of Belgium and the northeastern quarter of France. We first evaluate MAR outputs from a climate point of view, against more than 150 weather stations, and then from a viticulture point of view, by computing bioclimatic indices, as well as key phenological dates and frost risk. The second step consists in comparing the four northernmost French wine regions (Champagne, Bourgogne, Jura and Alsace) with the Belgian wine region. MAR simulations are generally consistent with the observation, especially for the dates of the main phenological stages of the vine. Simulations of frost risk in spring, heat stress in summer and Huglin’s heliothermal index show slightly more disagreement but biases remain moderate. The Belgium wine region appears as quite comparable to Champagne and the Jura, despite colder conditions that influence its bioclimatic indices. Under current climate conditions, the main risk for Belgian vines is frost after bud break.
Identifying geographical origins of red wines made in specific regions is of significance since the false claim of geographical origins has been frequently exposed in China's wine industry. In this work, an untargeted metabolomic approach based on UPLC-QTOF-MS was established to discriminate geographical origins of Chinese red wines. The principal component analysis (PCA) showed significant differences between wine samples from three famous geographical origins in China. The metabolites contributing to the differentiation were screened by orthogonal partial least squares-discriminant analysis (OPLS-DA) with pairwise modeling. 40 and 46 differential metabolites in positive and negative ionization modes were putatively identified as chemical markers. Furthermore, heatmap visualization and OPLS-DA models were constructed based on these identified markers and external verification wine samples from different regions were successfully discriminated, with recognition rate up to 96.7%. This study indicated that UPLC-QTOF-MS-based untargeted metabolomics has great potential for the geographical origin traceability of Chinese red wines.
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Grapevines are cultivated on six out of seven continents, between latitudes 4° and 51° in the Northern Hemisphere and between latitudes 6° and 45° in the Southern Hemisphere across a large diversity of climates (oceanic, warm oceanic, transition temperate, continental, cold continental, Mediterranean, subtropical, attenuated tropical, and arid climates). Accordingly, the range and magnitude of environmental factors differ considerably from region to region and so do the principal environmental constraints for grape production. The type, number, and magnitude of environmental constraints are currently undergoing changes due to shifts in climate patterns already observed for the past and predicted for the future. These changes are already affecting grape composition with observed changes in sugar and acidity concentrations. As with other components such as polyphenols or aroma compounds, their relationships to environmental changes are more difficult to quantify. In general, one can divide the expected climatic changes during the grape-ripening period into two scenarios: warmer and dryer and warmer and moister, with different responses for red and white grape varieties. The production challenges within this broad separation are vastly different, and the strategies to ensure a sustainable product need to be adapted accordingly. The economic impact of these changes is difficult to assess. An in-depth analysis is necessary to construct relevant scenarios and risk analysis for individual regions and to quantify the costs and/or benefits of regional climate developments. (JEL Classifications: Q1, Q54)
In this article, we provide an overview of the extensive literature on the impact of weather and climate on grapes and wine with the goal of describing how climate change is likely to affect their production. We start by discussing the physical impact of weather on vine phenology, berry composition, and yields and then survey the economic literature measuring the effects of temperature on wine quality, prices, costs, and profits and how climate change will affect these. We also describe what has been learned so far about possible adaptation strategies for grape growers that would allow them to mitigate the economic effects of climate change. We conclude that climate change is likely to produce winners and losers, with the winners being those closer to the North and South Poles. There are also likely to be some substantial short-run costs as growers adapt to climate change. Nevertheless, wine making has survived through thousands of years of recorded history, a history that includes large climate changes. (JEL Classifications: Q54, Q13)
Plant adaptation to global climate change has become one of the most pressing and important topics in biology. Changes in climate that lead to increased crop water use or decreases in water availability will increase the frequency and magnitude of plant water stress. Water stress reduces plant growth and crop yield, and for perennial crops like grape, there is an added consideration: their long-term ability to tolerate and recover from this stress. This primer introduces plant water relations basics, explaining how grape physiology is affected by water stress and discussing the physiological foundations for the development of drought-tolerant cultivars and rootstocks. (JEL Classifications: Q13, Q54)
In the context of the important implications of climate change, this paper analyzes the impact of weather on wine quality and prices for Australian premium wines. Motivated by a recognition of consumers’ accessed information sets, the impact of temperature and rainfall on retail wine prices is assessed through their relation with quality ratings from a high-profile wine guide and then on prices. For a broad spectrum of different quality wines from a cross section of wines available in 2014 and a separate analysis of eight wine varieties, the indirect approach to modeling weather effects through wine quality is found to be superior than assuming weather impacts directly on retail prices. The results also demonstrate the importance of regional variations in weather conditions in influencing prices and identify the optimal season growing temperatures for different grape varieties. (JEL Classifications: Q13, Q54)
The present paper aims to assess the impacts of climate change on grapevine cultivation in the Mediterranean basin by using three regional climatic models (RCMs), which were designed specifically for high-resolution simulation of climate in that region. RCM outputs were used to feed a grapevine growth simulation model, which was developed, tested, and calibrated for the Sangiovese variety. The study area was identified by implementing a bioclimatic classification of the regions based on the Winkler Index (ranging from 1,700 to 1,900 thermal units). The results indicated that the projected increasing temperatures will result in a general acceleration and shortening of the phenological stages compared to the present period. Accordingly, the reduction in time for biomass accumulation negatively affected the final yield. Few exceptions were found in the northern and central regions of the study area (southern France and western Balkans) for which changes in climatic conditions were not limiting and the crop benefited from the enhanced atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. (JEL Classifications: Q100, Q540)
Grape berry development is reviewed with special focus on berry growth, structure, substances imported, organic acid and sugar metabolism. Berry growth is divided into two growth periods. Berry structure and ultra-structure are adapted to sink function. Exocarp cells are characterized by intensive metabolic capacities, flesh cells by a storage role. Early growth is highly sensitive to internal and external parameters. Berry size is largely defined during the first growth period. After « véraison », the berry becomes a major storage sink. Many changes occur in berry metabolism and gene expression. Genomic researches are promising to elucidate the mechanisms of berry development.