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Massive subsurface ice formed by refreezing of ice-shelf melt ponds

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Surface melt ponds form intermittently on several Antarctic ice shelves. Although implicated in ice-shelf break up, the consequences of such ponding for ice formation and ice-shelf structure have not been evaluated. Here we report the discovery of a massive subsurface ice layer, at least 16 km across, several kilometres long and tens of metres deep, located in an area of intense melting and intermittent ponding on Larsen C Ice Shelf, Antarctica. We combine borehole optical televiewer logging and radar measurements with remote sensing and firn modelling to investigate the layer, found to be ∼10 C warmer and ∼170 kg m¯³ denser than anticipated in the absence of ponding and hitherto used in models of ice-shelf fracture and flow. Surface ponding and ice layers such as the one we report are likely to form on a wider range of Antarctic ice shelves in response to climatic warming in forthcoming decades.
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ARTICLE
Received 11 Aug 2015 |Accepted 10 May 2016 |Published 10 Jun 2016
Massive subsurface ice formed by refreezing
of ice-shelf melt ponds
Bryn Hubbard1, Adrian Luckman2, David W. Ashmore1, Suzanne Bevan2, Bernd Kulessa2,
Peter Kuipers Munneke2, Morgane Philippe3, Daniela Jansen4, Adam Booth5, Heidi Sevestre6,
Jean-Louis Tison3, Martin O’Leary2& Ian Rutt2
Surface melt ponds form intermittently on several Antarctic ice shelves. Although implicated
in ice-shelf break up, the consequences of such ponding for ice formation and ice-shelf
structure have not been evaluated. Here we report the discovery of a massive subsurface ice
layer, at least 16 km across, several kilometres long and tens of metres deep, located in an
area of intense melting and intermittent ponding on Larsen C Ice Shelf, Antarctica. We
combine borehole optical televiewer logging and radar measurements with remote sensing
and firn modelling to investigate the layer, found to be B10 °C warmer and B170 kg m 3
denser than anticipated in the absence of ponding and hitherto used in models of ice-shelf
fracture and flow. Surface ponding and ice layers such as the one we report are likely to form
on a wider range of Antarctic ice shelves in response to climatic warming in forthcoming
decades.
DOI: 10.1038/ncomms11897 OPEN
1Centre for Glaciology, Department of Geography and Earth Sciences, Aberystwyth University, Aberystwyth SY23 3DB, UK. 2Glaciology Group, Department
of Geography, Swansea University, Swansea SA2 8PP, UK. 3Laboratoire de Glaciologie, De
´partement Ge
´osciences, Environnement et Socie
´te
´, Universite
´Libre
de Bruxelles, Bruxelles 1050, Belgium. 4Alfred Wegener Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum fu
¨r Polar- und Meeresforschung D-27568, Bremerhaven, Germany.
5School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK. 6Department of Arctic Geology, University Centre in Svalbard, N-9171
Longyearbyen, Norway. Correspondence and requests for materials should be addressed to B.H. (email: byh@aber.ac.uk).
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS | 7:11897 | DOI: 10.1038/ncomms11897 | www.nature.com/naturecommunications 1
The B49,000 km2Larsen C Ice Shelf (LCIS) is considered
susceptible to future collapse because of its exposure to
intense surface melting1across the northern sector of the
Antarctic Peninsula (Fig. 1). Satellite and airborne radar data on
the LCIS indicate low firn-air content2, promoting the formation
of melt ponds and the potential for hydrofracturing3,4. Analysis of
remotely sensed images of Cabinet Inlet, located in the northwest
sector of the LCIS, reveals the presence during some summer
months of surface melt ponds that generally form in flow-parallel
troughs that are some tens of kilometres long and hundreds of
metres wide (Fig. 1). These ponds form in Cabinet Inlet as a result
of melting by fo
¨hn winds that blow from the Graham Land
mountains and eastwards through the shelf’s northernmost-
fringing inlets5–7. Although appearing to generate substantial
surface melt, these winds do not persist for more than a few days
even through the summer, and ponds appear intermittently on
satellite images (Fig. 1). The additional stress and hydrofracturing
potential of such ponded surface water has been proposed as a
means of shelf destabilization8–10 and has been implicated in
the collapse of Larsen B Ice Shelf in 200211,12. However,
the implications of such ponding for the formation of new ice
and its influence on ice-shelf structure have not been reported.
In this study, we report the presence of a massive ice layer, at
least 16 km across, several kilometres long and tens of metres
deep, present beneath an area of intermittent pond formation on
LCIS, Antarctica. We combine field data with firn-modelling and
remotely sensed data to investigate the layer’s properties and
formation. The layer is found to be composed of two units: an
upper, solid ice unit formed largely from the continual refreezing
of ponded water; and a lower, infiltration ice unit formed
largely from the refreezing of meltwater that has percolated into
very dense firn. The layer is found to be B10 °C warmer and
B170 kg m 3denser than that which would have been present
in the absence of the influence of intense surface melting and
pond formation. The implications of the layer’s presence for
ice-shelf thickness estimates, flow and stability are explored.
Results
Borehole drilling and logging. In early austral summer
2014/2015, we drilled a B100-m long borehole into the flank of a
Cabinet Inlet trough indicated by satellite imagery to have
repeatedly hosted melt ponds over the past 15 years, but not since
2008/2009. Although the shelf was snow-covered at the time of
drilling, inspection of the wall of a 2-m deep pit revealed the
presence of both numerous ice layers within the snowpack and an
unusually thick ice layer at a depth of 2.0 m that prevented
continued excavation. The borehole was logged to a depth of
B97 m by optical televiewer (OPTV)13, providing a geometrically
accurate image of the complete borehole wall at a vertical and
lateral resolution of B1 mm. The resulting OPTV log (Fig. 2a)
contrasts starkly with those retrieved from other accumulating
b
a
Cabinet Inlet
Churchill
Peninsula
Cole
Peninsula
50 km 10 km
N
E
S
W
123
Figure 1 | Cabinet Inlet basemap and surface ponding. Location map of Cabinet Inlet study site on Larsen C Ice Shelf based on MODIS data from 3rd
December 2014. (a) Main figure location in Antarctica (red box). (b) Landsat expansion of Cabinet Inlet from 31st December 2001, showing surface
ponding (dark patches) and the locations of the borehole (yellow dot) and 200-MHz GPR transects (red lines) presented in Fig. 4.
ARTICLE NATURE COMMUNICATIONS | DOI: 10.1038/ncomms11897
2NATURE COMMUNICATIONS | 7:11897 | DOI: 10.1038/ncomms11897 | www.nature.com/naturecommunications
ice-shelf and ice-sheet locations (for example, Fig. 2b), including
the interior of the Greenland Ice Sheet14 and an East Antarctic ice
shelf and ice rise15,16. In each of these other cases, OPTV log
luminosity decreases gradually with depth as surface snow
metamorphoses through firn to dense ice over depths of several
tens of metres. In contrast, our Cabinet Inlet OPTV log (Fig. 2a)
shows a sharp contact between high-luminosity surface snow or
firn and low-luminosity ice at a depth of only 2.9 m below the
ice-shelf surface. This ice extends to the 97-m deep base of
the log. Converting the luminosity of this OPTV log to
density reveals a mean density for this entire ice layer of
870 kg m 3. Figure 2a also reveals a transition in ice type at a
depth of B45 m, with the overlying layer (named Unit 1)
hosting more frequent horizontal layers and being more dense
(mean ¼888 kg m 3) than the underlying ice layer (Unit 2;
mean ¼854 kg m 3), which is principally composed of bubbly
host ice containing coarse, irregularly dipping bubble-free ice
layers. The proximity of this generally massive ice layer to the
shelf surface, and the sharpness of its contact with the overlying
snowpack, preclude formation by the usual process of
compaction–metamorphism. Instead, we interpret this Unit 1
ice as having formed as a consequence of refreezing, following
periods of intense surface melting and intermittent pond
formation. The characteristics revealed by the OPTV image are
consistent with this unit (2.9 to B45 m) being largely bubble-free
pond ice formed from the refreezing of surface water ponded
during extended periods of intense, presumably summer, melting.
Here the fine-scale horizontal layering apparent in Fig. 2a likely
reflects the episodic nature of the process, which would involve
four general stages: (a) snow accumulation, (b) surface melting,
(c) meltwater infiltration into underlying snow, eventually
resulting in its saturation and pond formation, and (d) the
freezing of that meltwater layer to form pond ice, probably during
early austral autumn. In contrast, Unit 2 (approximately 45–97-m
depth) also contains layers of bubble-poor ice, but in this zone
they are typically decimetres thick, contorted and isolated within
host ice that is optically brighter (likely due to the presence of
reflective bubbles; Fig. 2a). We interpret this lower unit as ice
dominated by infiltration refreezing formed by meltwater
percolating into underlying firn. This still involves the influence
of intense surface melting but, in contrast to the Unit 1,
of generally insufficient magnitude to form a continuous
quasi-massive layer of largely bubble-free pond ice. These
physical characteristics and depth ranges of the two units we
identify are consistent with the upper (Unit 1) ‘pond ice’ forming
within the Cabinet Inlet region of pond formation and the lower
(Unit 2) ‘infiltration ice’ forming, and being inherited from,
up-flow of the region of pond formation (Fig. 1).
Firn modelling and satellite image analysis. We evaluate this
hypothesis for the recent past through a one-dimensional firn
densification and hydrology model17, driven by surface mass
fluxes and temperature data from the RACMO2.3 regional
climate model for Cabinet Inlet18. Model results (Fig. 3a,b)
indicate the occurrence of intermittent, but substantial, surface
melt events at the borehole location, consistent with Unit 1
forming from the refreezing of surface meltwater. As well as
predicting the presence of such a layer, the model predicts
(Fig. 3b) that the layer’s upper surface was, in summer
2014–2015, expected to be 2.9-m below the snow surface, and
that the overlying snowpack contains a substantial ice layer
between B1.9 and 2.2 m, agreeing with our direct observations
from snow-pit digging, the OPTV log (Fig. 2a) and ground-
penetrating radar (GPR) data (Fig. 4) addressed below.
Further, this analysis is supported by a time series of moderate
resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite images
(Fig. 3c), indicating that melt ponds formed annually between
2001 and 2009, while none appears in any of the images available
between early 2009 and the time of fieldwork in late 2014. This
reconstruction matches very closely the RACMO-based firn
densification reconstruction (Fig. 3b) with ‘pond years’,
coinciding with periods of intense near-surface firn
densification (for example, 2005–2007).
Ground-penetrating radar. An approximation of the lateral
extent of the massive subsurface ice layer we report is provided
by the area known from satellite images to host melt ponds:
B60-km across-flow and B20-km along-flow (Fig. 1). However,
the precise degree to which this zone is underlain by massive
NE S WN
–20 –10 0
DIR OPTVLCIS OPTV Temp. (°C)
NE S WN
Depth
(m)
LCIS density
(kg m–3)
DIR density
(kg m–3)
0
500
1,000
250
750
0
500
1,000
250
750
cba
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Figure 2 | Cabinet Inlet borehole data. (a) OPTV log of the LCIS borehole.
This raw log is of the complete borehole wall, unrolled to progress
north—east—south—west—north from left to right. The log is classified
into two units, described and interpreted in the text: Unit 1 extends from a
depth of B2.9–45 m, and Unit 2 from a depth of B45 m to the base.
(b) OPTV log of a typical ice-shelf borehole unaffected by significant
melting (Derwael Ice Rise, Roi Baudouin Ice Shelf, Antarctica) showing
(a) the normal reduction in luminosity with depth, interpreted as
progressive densification from snow, through firn to ice, and (b) the usual
presence of regular horizontal planes closing up with depth, interpreted as
annual layering. Density profiles derived from OPTV luminosity (described
in Methods) are superimposed as red lines on both OPTV logs. (c) Englacial
temperatures (a) measured by borehole thermistor string (solid dots),
(b) that would normally be used in an ice-shelf model for this site (open
circles), and (c) predicted by our firn model at a depth of 11 m (cross).
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS | DOI: 10.1038/ncomms11897 ARTICLE
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS | 7:11897 | DOI: 10.1038/ncomms11897 | www.nature.com/naturecommunications 3
pond and/or infiltration ice, and the depth of such layers where
they are present beyond our borehole, cannot be determined from
temporally discrete satellite images. To evaluate this we carried
out GPR profiling at 200 MHz along three transects focused on
the borehole location (Fig. 1). The resulting radargrams (Fig. 4)
reveal the presence of numerous near-surface reflectors and one
substantial reflector at a depth that varies between B1 and B3m
along the transects. Very little radar energy above the background
noise level was received from below this reflection. This absence
of signal return is consistent with the presence of a refrozen ice
layer that, although characterized by minor density stratification,
is physically and chemically uniform compared with firn layering
unmodified by meltwater. This main reflector is B2.9-m deep at
the borehole location, coincident with field-based digging, drilling
and OPTV logging, as well as with firn modelling (above).
We therefore infer that this strong GPR reflection represents the
upper surface of a spatially extensive ice layer that is both thick
and relatively homogeneous. Since meltwater ponds are confined
to surface troughs that persist in MODIS images for decades
within this region of Cabinet Inlet, it is unlikely that this ice layer
is ubiquitously composed of Unit 1 pond ice. Away from the
troughs, this near-surface reflector therefore probably indicates
the uppermost surface of an ice layer that is more similar to
Unit 2 infiltration ice, that is, still influenced by intense surface
melting and subsurface refreezing, but in these areas not actually
forming standing ponds. In the absence of further direct inves-
tigation, such as by ice coring or borehole analysis, it is not yet
possible to determine at high resolution the lateral variability of
the two units we identify. Nonetheless, our OPTV and GPR data
together indicate that a widespread ice layer extends at least
across all of our B16-km flow-orthogonal and B6-km flow-
parallel GPR study area. Our borehole OPTV log also indicates
that Units 1 and 2 combined extend to a depth of at least 97 m at
the location of our borehole. While it is highly likely that this
thickness—defined by the depth of the base of Unit 2—varies
spatially across Cabinet Inlet, it is not currently possible to specify
this distribution without further borehole and/or GPR data.
Discussion
The presence of the refrozen ice layer we report above affects the
physical properties of the LCIS in at least two ways. First,
the layer’s density is substantially higher than that of the snow and
firn that would otherwise have formed over this depth range by
standard compaction–metamorphism. For example, a recent LCIS
model19 used a density of B700 kg m 3for the shelf’s uppermost
B100 m, based on inverting seismic data recorded in the shelf’s
southern sector. In contrast, our OPTV-derived densities indicate a
measured density of B870 kg m 3over this depth range in the
Cabinet Inlet area, 24% higher. Such a density enhancement
influences calculations of the shelf’s thickness based on the surface
elevation data20. In this case, using an ice density of 917kg m 3,a
sea water density of 1,026 kg m 3, a surface elevation of 63.5 m
(Fig. 4) and the assumed firn density of 700 kg m 3for the
uppermost 97m of the shelf yields a total shelf thickness of 382m.
Repeating the calculation with our OPTV-reconstructed density of
870 kg m3for the uppermost 97 m yields a total shelf thickness of
551 m. Although substantially thicker than that calculated from the
‘standard firn’ model, a thickness of 551 m is close to that of 564 m
reconstructed for the area by the Bedmap2 consortium21.This
close correspondence reflects the fact that the (altimetry-based)
Bedmap reconstructions include a correction to account for
enhanced densification, resulting from active surface melting on ice
shelves22. Our OPTV-based density reconstruction also yields a
firn-air content (the column-length equivalent accounted for by
material with a density lower than that of bubble-free glacial ice) of
5.0 m. While this value is substantially lower than the 23.0m that
would result from firn of density 700 kg m 3, it is far closer to the
spatially distributed range of 0–4m predicted for the area based on
recent combined analyses of remotely sensed surface elevation and
shelf thickness fields9,10. However, direct comparisons such as
these are somewhat confounded by our firn-air content of 5.0m
being based on a single-point measurement (recorded, as noted
above, on the limb of an elongate trough hosting an ephemeral
surface pond), whereas the reconstructions based on remotely
sensed data integrate data over a coarser spatial field.
Second, as well as altering its density, the ice column will be
warmed by latent heat released by the freezing of ponded and
percolating meltwater. This effect is quantified by a thermistor
4
3
2
1
0
M:A ratio
Depth (m)
a
b
c
Year
0
2
4
6
8
10
Density (kg m–3)
900
800
700
600
500
400
No ponds
Ponds
2014
2012
2010
2000
2008
2006
2004
2002
1990
1998
1996
1994
1992
Figure 3 | Firn model and remotely sensed outputs for Cabinet Inlet for
the period 1st January 1990 to the time of fieldwork on 1 st December
2014. (a) Ratio of melt to accumulation (M:A) predicted by the firn model
for each 12-month period (1st March–28th February). The horizontal
dashed line marks an M:A ratio of 1. (b) Predicted firn density plotted
against depth. The predicted massive shallow ice layer (dark blue) is never
more than B8 m below the shelf surface and extends to within B1 m of the
surface in years 1993–2001 and 2005–2009, both containing individual
years of high M:A ratio. (c) Classification of time series of summer MODIS
satellite images (available since 2001) of Cabinet Inlet according to the
presence (red bars) or absence (grey bars) of surface ponds.
50
–2,330,000
Easting (m)
–2,320,000
1,160,000
1,170,000
Northing (m)
60
70
Ele. (m a.s.l.)
1
2
3
Figure 4 | Cabinet Inlet radargrams. 200 MHz GPR profiles along the
three transects identified in Fig. 1, overlaid on a Landsat image of the region
from 31st December 2001 when surface melt ponds were present. The
borehole location is marked by the yellow dot.
ARTICLE NATURE COMMUNICATIONS | DOI: 10.1038/ncomms11897
4NATURE COMMUNICATIONS | 7:11897 | DOI: 10.1038/ncomms11897 | www.nature.com/naturecommunications
string installed into the borehole following OPTV logging
(Fig. 2c). The mean annual temperature measured at a depth of
11 m was 5.9 °C, while the mean annual surface temperature at
the site (which normally defines that at a depth of 10–15 m in the
absence of significant refreezing) is 16.9 °C. Further, the
entire ice profile recorded by our thermistor string (Fig. 2c) is
warmer than would be expected without factoring in refreezing
of ponded meltwater. This effect is confirmed by our firn
model, which under-predicts englacial temperatures despite
accounting for heat released by the refreezing of percolating
meltwater. In this case, modelled pore-water refreezing
contributes B1.5 °C to the firn, yielding a predicted temperature
at 11 m of 15.4 °C (Fig. 2c). This is still almost 10 °C colder
than our measured firn temperature at that depth, demonstrating
that the refreezing of ponded meltwater (not included in the
model) provides significant, hitherto unconsidered, englacial
heating in this region. As well as being denser, this ice is
therefore also warmer than that which would otherwise be used in
numerical models of the flow of the LCIS19.
Replacing on the order of 10 10 0.1 km of standard firn
with relatively warm and dense ice will exert some influence on
ice shelf flow and stability. However, evaluating this influence at
the ice-shelf scale is not straightforward. In the first instance, the
warmer ice layer we identify will be less viscous than colder ice,
and this may go some way to accounting for the anomalously
high-rate factor that has in the past been necessary for numerical
models of the flow of the LCIS, and in particular its northern
sector, to match empirical data23,24. A consequence of such a
temperature-induced acceleration would be a general reduction in
back stress within confined embayments, such as Cabinet Inlet,
potentially increasing shear stresses along the flow unit’s
lateral margins. This process is consistent with observations
that the northern sector of Larsen B Ice Shelf experienced an
increase in lateral rifting before its break up in 2002 (ref. 25). In
contrast, the influence of the layer’s presence on brittle
deformation may be in the opposite direction, with enhanced
ductile flow accommodating strain and the solid ice we report
being more resistant to tensile fracture than lower-density and
finer-grained firn. In such cases, the flow-parallel alignment of
elongate solid ice bodies such as that we report herein might serve
to resist the flow-orthogonal crevassing that commonly develops
in response to longitudinal tensile stresses, approaching the
marine limit of ice shelves. Finally, the spatial extent of this layer
at the ice-shelf scale, and the way in which its deformation
interacts with that of other material units, such as suture ice, and
basal channels and crevasses, will also influence the way in which
the layer’s presence affects overall shelf stability. In particular,
longitudinal troughs located on the surface of ice shelves have
been related to spatially coincident basal channels26, which have
themselves been associated with shelf instability27 through local
thinning and crevassing28,29. Although it is not yet known
whether the surface troughs on LCIS investigated herein are
associated with such basal channels, the recent finding that
material density is locally enhanced below similar surface troughs
on the Roi Baudouin Ice Shelf, Antarctica30, is consistent with
the enhanced melting and massive ice formation reported herein.
In the light of these complexities, identifying and exploring the
net influence of pond ice formation on ice-shelf stability can
only be achieved with confidence by including the full spatial
extent and physical properties of the refrozen ice layer into
a shelf-wide flow and fracture model, which may be regarded as a
future research priority.
The surface ponding responsible for the subsurface ice layer we
report herein is currently restricted to warmer regions of
Antarctica’s fringing ice shelves and in particular, but not
exclusively, to the northern and western sectors of the Antarctic
Peninsula. However, regional warming is predicted to spread
southwards and intensify substantially over forthcoming
decades5,31, so ponding is expected also to become more
widespread. Similarly, massive layers of warm, dense ice are
therefore highly likely to form within ice shelves present across a
substantial area of Antarctica, perhaps the entire continent if
warming continues into the 22nd century5, with important
consequences for ice-shelf flow, hydrofracture and stability.
Methods
Borehole drilling and logging.The borehole was drilled by pressurized hot water
and logged by OPTV13. The resulting OPTV log, analysed by WellCAD and BIFAT
software32, provides a geometrically accurate image, with a pixel size of B1mm,of
the material composition of the complete borehole wall, as well as the structural
geometry of layers and inclusions intersecting it33. Since the OPTV log records an
image of reflected light, it also provides a proxy for the density of compacted snow,
firn and ice due to the progressive decrease in reflectivity, as voids close and bubbles
are occluded and collapsed13,15. Hubbard et al.15 exploited this relationship and
identified an exponential relationship between OPTV luminosity (L) and material
density (D) on the basis of samples recovered from a core retrieved from a borehole
logged by OPTV on the Roi Baudouin Ice Shelf, East Antarctica. However, due to
equipment loss, the light-emitting diode brightness of the OPTV probe used in the
current study was different from that of Hubbard et al.15, and a new calibration was
undertaken. This was based on the correlation of 40 core samples recovered from a
logged borehole, again located on the Roi Baudouin Ice Shelf (Fig. 5). The new
calibration yields a best-fit regression equation of D¼950–40.1 e(0.0101L)(R2¼0.82),
with root mean square values of the residuals of 40.4, 35.2 and 21.7 kg m 3for the
density ranges 600–700, 700–800 and 800–900kg m 3, respectively. While these
values provide an error range for absolute densities derived from OPTV luminosity,
the relative changes in density reported herein, that is, along a single borehole log,
reduce to the precision of the method. This is approximated by the density range
(910 kg m 3) divided by the luminosity range (256), or B3.5kg m 3.
Borehole temperatures (Fig. 2c) were recorded by negative temperature
coefficient thermistors, recorded across a Wheatstone half-bridge by Campbell
Scientific micro-loggers. Resistances were converted to temperature using a
polynomial34 fitted to the manufacturer’s calibration curve refined via a second-stage
calibration in a distilled water/ice bath. Once recalibrated, sensors were replaced into
a new water/ice bath to determine temperature error, yielding a root mean square
error of ±0.03 °C. Borehole temperatures were logged for at least 100 days, and the
undisturbed ice temperature was calculated from an exponential function fitted to
the cooling curve35. By this time, all temperatures recorded below the near-surface
zone of seasonal thermal disturbance had stabilized to values that varied (over
timescales of days to weeks) by o0.05°C. Thus, the englacial temperatures we report
herein were not influenced by the hot-water drilling process.
Firn modelling.The firn model used is IMAU-FDM v1.0, which takes into account
firn compaction, meltwater percolation and refreezing17,18. At the surface, the firn
model is forced with mass fluxes (snowfall, snowmelt, rain, sublimation, and
snowdrift sublimation and erosion) and surface temperature from the regional
500
600
700
800
900
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220
OPTV luminosity (0 – 255)
D = 950 – 40.1 e
(0.0101L)
R2 = 0.82
Density (kg m–3)
Figure 5 | Optical televiewer density–luminosity calibration. Material
density, measured gravimetrically on core samples, plotted against
equivalent OPTV luminosity, both measured along a borehole located on
Roi Baudouin Ice Shelf, East Antarctica.
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NATURE COMMUNICATIONS | 7:11897 | DOI: 10.1038/ncomms11897 | www.nature.com/naturecommunications 5
climate model RACMO2.3, run at a 5.5-km horizontal resolution in a domain over
the Antarctic Peninsula.
Satellite image analysis.MODIS Terra and Aqua level 1 (250 m) data were
ordered via the level 1 and atmosphere archive and distribution system, and used to
check for the presence of melt ponds in Cabinet Inlet. A total of 577 cloud-free
band 2 (848 nm) images between 1st December and 30th April from 2000 (Aqua)
or 2002 (Terra) to 2015 were classified to generate the time series shown in Fig. 3c.
Ground-penetrating radar.GPR data (Fig. 4) were collected using a Sensors and
Software Pulse Ekko Pro system operated in common offset mode with a 0.8-ns
sample interval and a 4,000-ns sample window. The console was mounted on the
skidoo and the 200MHz antennae towed 15 m behind on a plastic sledge at
B10 km h 1with an eight stack trace recorded every 3m. A Leica VIVA GS10
GNSS rover unit was connected directly to the GPR console; the base station was
located at the drill site. Surface elevation was referenced to the Earth Gravitational
Model 1996 geoid, taken to represent sea level, and no correction was made for
dynamic topography. GPR data were processed in Reflex-W. Processing steps
included de-wow of 25-ns filter length, spherical divergence compensation, spectral
whitening between 70 and 200MHz, and a two-dimensional mean-averaging filter.
The static correction was based on Leica Geo Office post-processed GNSS data,
resulting in a vertical accuracy of ±0.5 m. Radar wave propagation velocities used to
convert travel times to the depths shown in Fig. 4 were 0.2m ns1for the upper-
most 3 m (based on a local 500 MHz common midpoint gather from the uppermost
reflector of Unit 1) and a typical value for glacial ice36 of 0.17 m ns 1below that.
Data availability.The data that support the findings of this study are available
from http://www.projectmidas.org/data/hubbard2016/ and from the corresponding
author upon request.
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Acknowledgements
This research was funded by the Natural Environment Research Council, grants NE/
L005409/1 and NE/L006707/1, and Aberystwyth University’s Capital Equipment fund.
The Leica VIVA GS10 GNSS system and Sensors and Software Pulse Ekko Pro radar
transmitter were loaned by the Natural Environment Research Council Geophysical
Equipment Facility, loan number 1028. We thank the British Antarctic Survey for
logistical support, and in particular the project’s field assistants Ashly Fusiarski and
Nicholas Gillett.
Author contributions
A.L. and B.H. led the overall project. Fieldwork was carried out by D.A., S.B., B.H., B.K.,
H.S., A.B. and A.L. D.J., M.O.L. and I.R. contributed to ice-shelf modelling, guiding
the field programme and interpretations. S.B. and A.L. led the remote-sensing
contributions. P.K.M. carried out the firn modelling. M.P., J.-L.T. and B.H. contributed
to the OPTV calibration. All authors contributed to writing the manuscript, which
was led by B.H.
Additional information
Competing financial interests: The authors declare no competing financial interests.
Reprints and permission information is available online at http://npg.nature.com/
reprintsandpermissions/
How to cite this article: Hubbard, B. et al. Massive subsurface ice formed by
refreezing of ice-shelf melt ponds. Nat. Commun. 7:11897 doi: 10.1038/ncomms11897
(2016).
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ARTICLE NATURE COMMUNICATIONS | DOI: 10.1038/ncomms11897
6NATURE COMMUNICATIONS | 7:11897 | DOI: 10.1038/ncomms11897 | www.nature.com/naturecommunications
... more recent study byTuckett et al. (2019) also documented supraglacial lake occurrence over tributaries of the former Larsen A and Larsen B ice shelves during 2014-2016. Supraglacial meltwater features on Larsen C Ice Shelf were repeatedly documented in several inlets close to the grounding line(Bell et al., 2018;Holland et al., 2011;Hubbard et al., 2016;Kuipers Munneke et al., 2018;Luckman et al., 2014). Further south, lakes have been sporadically observed on the former Wordie Ice Shelf in ...
... Over tributaries of the former Prince-Gustav-Channel and Larsen ice shelves on the northern API, ice flow velocities were still considerably higher in 2014-2016 than in pre-collapse conditions (Figure 3.5) (e.g.Gardner et al., 2018;Rott et al., 2018;Seehaus et al., 2018;Shen et al., 2018). Apart from surface lakes, englacial meltwater drainage can originate from buried lakes and firn aquifers even though knowledge on the distribution of Antarctic firn aquifers and buried lakes is so far scarce(Dunmire et al., 2020;Hubbard et al., 2016;Lenaerts et al., 2017;Liston et al., 1999;MacDonell et al., 2020;Montgomery et al., 2020) and mostly results from modelling studies.Similarly, the temporary injection of meltwater to the glacier bed results from the percolation of surface or subsurface meltwater into fractures and crevasses on grounded ice and their subsequent penetration through the entire ice sheet thickness(Figure 3.4c) ...
... Further, data from Sentinel-2 and Aqua/Terra were frequently used. Due to their launches in 1999 and 2002 (seeFigure 4.2a), the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors aboard Terra and Aqua were used for assessments of past supraglacial lake evolution (e.g.Hubbard et al., 2016;Kingslake et al., 2015;Spergel et al., 2021). On the other hand, Sentinel-2 data were used for more recent investigations of Antarctic supraglacial lakes (e.g.Arthur et al., 2020b;Banwell et al., 2021;Moussavi et al., 2020;Stokes et al., 2019;Tuckett et al., 2019). ...
Thesis
Full-text available
With accelerating global climate change, the Antarctic Ice Sheet is exposed to increasing ice dynamic change. During 1992 and 2017, Antarctica contributed ~7.6 mm to global sea-level-rise mainly due to ocean thermal forcing along West Antarctica and atmospheric warming along the Antarctic Peninsula (API). Together, these processes caused the progressive retreat of glaciers and ice shelves and weakened their efficient buttressing force causing widespread ice flow accelerations. Holding ~91% of the global ice mass and 57.3 m of sea-level-equivalent, the Antarctic Ice Sheet is by far the largest potential contributor to future sea-level-rise. Despite the improved understanding of Antarctic ice dynamics, the future of Antarctica remains difficult to predict with its contribution to global sea-level-rise representing the largest uncertainty in current projections. Given that recent studies point towards atmospheric warming and melt intensification to become a dominant driver for future Antarctic ice mass loss, the monitoring of supraglacial lakes and their impacts on ice dynamics is of utmost importance. In this regard, recent progress in Earth Observation provides an abundance of high-resolution optical and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellite data at unprecedented spatial and temporal coverage and greatly supports the monitoring of the Antarctic continent where ground-based mapping efforts are difficult to perform. As an automated mapping technique for supraglacial lake extent delineation in optical and SAR satellite imagery as well as a pan-Antarctic inventory of Antarctic supraglacial lakes at high spatial and temporal resolution is entirely missing, this thesis aims to advance the understanding of Antarctic surface hydrology through exploitation of spaceborne remote sensing. In particular, a detailed literature review on spaceborne remote sensing of Antarctic supraglacial lakes identified several research gaps including the lack of (1) an automated mapping technique for optical or SAR satellite data that is transferable in space and time, (2) high-resolution supraglacial lake extent mappings at intra-annual and inter-annual temporal resolution and (3) large-scale mapping efforts across the entire Antarctic continent. In addition, past method developments were found to be restricted to purely visual, manual or semi-automated mapping techniques hindering their application to multi-temporal satellite imagery at large-scale. In this context, the development of automated mapping techniques was mainly limited by sensor-specific characteristics including the similar appearance of supraglacial lakes and other ice sheet surface features in optical or SAR data, the varying temporal signature of supraglacial lakes throughout the year as well as effects such as speckle noise and wind roughening in SAR data or cloud coverage in optical data. To overcome these limitations, this thesis exploits methods from artificial intelligence and big data processing for development of an automated processing chain for supraglacial lake extent delineation in Sentinel-1 SAR and optical Sentinel-2 satellite imagery. The combination of both sensor types enabled to capture both surface and subsurface lakes as well as to acquire data during cloud cover or wind roughening of lakes. For Sentinel-1, a deep convolutional neural network based on residual U-Net was trained on the basis of 21,200 labeled Sentinel-1 SAR image patches covering 13 Antarctic regions. Similarly, optical Sentinel-2 data were collected over 14 Antarctic regions and used for training of a Random Forest classifier. Optical and SAR classification products were combined through decision-level fusion at bi-weekly temporal scale and unprecedented 10 m spatial resolution. Finally, the method was implemented as part of DLR’s High-Performance Computing infrastructure allowing for an automated processing of large amounts of data including all required pre- and postprocessing steps. The results of an accuracy assessment over independent test scenes highlighted the functionality of the classifiers returning accuracies of 93% and 95% for supraglacial lakes in Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 satellite imagery, respectively. Exploiting the full archive of Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2, the developed framework for the first time enabled the monitoring of seasonal characteristics of Antarctic supraglacial lakes over six major ice shelves in 2015-2021. In particular, the results for API ice shelves revealed low lake coverage during 2015-2018 and particularly high lake coverage during the 2019-2020 and 2020-2021 melting seasons. On the contrary, East Antarctic ice shelves were characterized by high lake coverage during 2016-2019 and extremely low lake coverage during the 2020-2021 melting season. Over all six investigated ice shelves, the development of drainage systems was revealed highlighting an increased risk for ice shelf instability. Through statistical correlation analysis with climate data at varying time lags as well as annual data on Southern Hemisphere atmospheric modes, environmental drivers for meltwater ponding were revealed. In addition, the influence of the local glaciological setting was investigated through computation of annual recurrence times of lakes. Over both ice sheet regions, the complex interplay between local, regional and large-scale environmental drivers was found to control supraglacial lake formation despite local to regional discrepancies, as revealed through pixel-based correlation analysis. Local control factors included the ice surface topography, the ice shelf geometry, the presence of low-albedo features as well as a reduced firn air content and were found to exert strong control on lake distribution. On the other hand, regional controls on lake evolution were revealed to be the amount of incoming solar radiation, air temperature and wind occurrence. While foehn winds were found to dictate lake evolution over the API, katabatic winds influenced lake ponding in East Antarctica. Furthermore, the regional near-surface climate was shown to be driven by large-scale atmospheric modes and teleconnections with the tropics. Overall, the results highlight that similar driving factors control supraglacial lake formation on the API and EAIS pointing towards their transferability to other Antarctic regions.
... Luckman et al. (2014) and Bevan et al. (2018) used satellite measurements to show that the annual melt duration on Larsen C is highest in the north, where temperatures are closer to the melting point, and in inlets close to the mountains, where foehn winds are most intense and frequent (Elvidge et al., 2015(Elvidge et al., , 2020Turton et al., 2018). These foehn-induced eastwest gradients in melt are also seen in borehole and firn measurements Holland et al., 2011;Hubbard et al., 2016). ...
... The simulated spatial pattern of meltwater production ( Figure 3) and number of melt days ( Figure S4 in Supporting Information S1) is consistent with satellite observations of the annual number of days that surface melting occurs (e.g., Bevan et al., 2018;Luckman et al., 2014), with a clear northsouth gradient across the ice shelf, and more melting observed in inlets. The hindcast also simulates peak mean meltwater production during the high melt years identified in Bevan et al. (2018Bevan et al. ( ), for example, the 2006Bevan et al. ( /2007Bevan et al. ( , 2015Bevan et al. ( /2016Bevan et al. ( , and 2016Bevan et al. ( /2017 melt seasons, when ice shelf averaged cumulative annual melt of 187 mm w.e., 157 mm w.e. and 161 mm w.e. over 56 days, 48 and 54 days, respectively, is modeled. The spatial patterns of surface melt shown in Bevan et al. (their Figure 6) are quite closely reproduced in Figure S4 in Supporting Information S1, which shows the number of melt days per year. ...
... The simulated spatial pattern of meltwater production ( Figure 3) and number of melt days ( Figure S4 in Supporting Information S1) is consistent with satellite observations of the annual number of days that surface melting occurs (e.g., Bevan et al., 2018;Luckman et al., 2014), with a clear northsouth gradient across the ice shelf, and more melting observed in inlets. The hindcast also simulates peak mean meltwater production during the high melt years identified in Bevan et al. (2018Bevan et al. ( ), for example, the 2006Bevan et al. ( /2007Bevan et al. ( , 2015Bevan et al. ( /2016Bevan et al. ( , and 2016Bevan et al. ( /2017 melt seasons, when ice shelf averaged cumulative annual melt of 187 mm w.e., 157 mm w.e. and 161 mm w.e. over 56 days, 48 and 54 days, respectively, is modeled. The spatial patterns of surface melt shown in Bevan et al. (their Figure 6) are quite closely reproduced in Figure S4 in Supporting Information S1, which shows the number of melt days per year. ...
Article
Full-text available
Following collapses of the neighboring Larsen A and B ice shelves, Larsen C has become a focus of increased attention. Determining how the prevailing meteorological conditions influence its surface melt regime is of paramount importance for understanding the dominant processes causing melt and ultimately for predicting its future. To this end, a new, high‐resolution (4 km grid spacing) Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) hindcast of atmospheric conditions and surface melt processes over the central Antarctic Peninsula is introduced. The hindcast is capable of simulating observed near‐surface meteorology and surface melt conditions over Larsen C. In contrast with previous model simulations, the MetUM captures the observed east‐west gradient in surface melting associated with foehn winds, as well as the interannual variability in melt shown in previous observational studies. As exemplars, we focus on two case studies—the months preceding the collapse of the Larsen B ice shelf in March 2002 and the high foehn, high melt period of March‐May 2016—to test the hindcast's ability to reproduce the atmospheric effects that contributed to considerable melting during those periods. The results suggest that the MetUM hindcast is a useful tool with which to explore the dominant causes of surface melting on Larsen C.
... Fimbulisen and Muninisen seem to have too small volumes of meltwater or too much pore space in the firn for large advection to occur over the ice shelves. However, repeated formation of lakes over the same locations implies the existence of a locally saturated firn layer, refrozen ice lenses or superimposed ice (Hubbard et al., 2016). The absence of meltwater lakes near the 385 front of the ice shelves in Dronning Maud Land is explained by limited meltwater production compared to snow accumulation, which builds a firn pack that is able to absorb and refreeze all meltwater, while keeping the albedo high and melting low compared to the blue ice areas. ...
Preprint
Full-text available
Accumulation of meltwater on the surface of ice shelves can have severe impacts on the ice sheet – ice shelf stability regime. Meltwater ponding on ice shelves can cause firn air depletion, flexure, hydrofracture and collapse of shelves that could further lead to increased ice-sheet discharge and sea level rise. Despite recent progress in the mapping of supraglacial lakes around Antarctica, there is still limited understanding of their dynamics, climatic and environmental controls, and their role in the Antarctic ice sheet mass budget. In this study, we track the seasonal and interannual evolution of supraglacial lakes on ice shelves in Dronning Maud Land in East Antarctica. The assessment employs an automatized band-thresholding approach to examine nearly 2500 Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 scenes captured between November and March from 2014 to 2021. Large networks of supraglacial lakes and streams were identified over the ice shelves Riiser Larsen, Nivlisen and Roi Baudouin, whereas other ice shelves had only smaller areas with isolated ponds (Fimbulisen and Muninisen) or no significant meltwater lakes at all. Despite large interannual variations in surface ponding, in specific melt years the relative extents were mostly consistent between different ice-shelf regions. The peak extents of supraglacial lakes typically occurred in mid-to-late January and varied from 38.19 ± 29.53 km2 in the low melt-year 2020–2021 to 809.37 ± 206.74 km2 in the high melt-year 2016–2017, corresponding to water volumes of 0.03 ± 0.02 km3 and 0.67 ± 0.16 km3 respectively. Comparison with positive degree days and seasonal temperatures shows considerable correlation with maximum lake extent for some ice shelves, but in total, it cannot explain the large differences in magnitudes of surface ponding over different ice shelves. For instance, melt extents of Fimbulisen and Nivlisen that lie next to each other differ by two orders of magnitude. Our assessments provide important insights into surface hydrology over the region and will be helpful to further constrain the different processes that control the evolution of supraglacial meltwater systems in Dronning Maud Land.
... Ice shelves may become more vulnerable to collapse as a result of continuously high rates of surface meltwater refreezing, which warms and weakens the ice (Hubbard et al., 2016;Phillips et al., 2010). Hence, determining the exact date, duration, end date, and distribution of snowmelt has significant implications for the health of the Antarctic ice shelves. ...
Article
Full-text available
Using Scatterometer-based backscatter data, the spatial and temporal melt dynamics of Antarctic ice shelves were tracked from 2000 to 2018. We constructed melt onset and duration maps for the whole Antarctic ice shelves using a pixel-based, adaptive threshold approach based on backscatter during the transition period between winter and summer. We explore the climatic influences on the spatial extent and timing of snowmelt using meteorological data from automatic weather stations and investigate the climatic controls on the spatial extent and timing of snowmelt. Melt extent usually starts in the latter week of November, peaks in the end of December/January, and vanishes in the first/second week of February on most ice shelves. On the Antarctic Peninsula (AP), the average melt was 70 days, with the melt onset on 20 November for almost 50% of the region. In comparison to the AP, the Eastern Antarctic experienced less melt, with melt lasting 40–50 days. For the Larsen-C, Shackleton, Amery, and Fimbul ice shelf, there was a substantial link between melt area and air temperature. A significant correlation is found between increased temperature advection and high melt area for the Amery, Shackleton, and Larsen-C ice shelves. The time series of total melt area showed a decreasing trend of −196 km ² /yr which was statistical significant at 97% interval. The teleconnections discovered between melt area and the combined anomalies of Southern Annular Mode and Southern Oscillation Index point to the high southern latitudes being coupled to the global climate system. The most persistent and intensive melt occurred on the AP, West Ice Shelf, Shackleton Ice Shelf, and Amery Ice Shelf, which should be actively monitored for future stability.
... The grounding zone of Nivlisen also hosts several epishelf lakes which are freshwater tidal lakes between rocky land and an ice shelf with a connection to the ocean beneath the ice shelf (Gibson and Andersen 2002;Phartiyal et al. 2011). If surface melting of DML ice shelves increases due to global warming, the firn pack might become saturated by ice (Hubbard et al. 2016) and start to contribute towards hydrofracturing and ice-shelf disintegration as seen on the Antarctic Peninsula (Scambos et al. 2000;Alley et al. 2018). Surface-and (Gardner et al. 2018) is shown in colours on top of the Landsat Image Mosaic of Antarctica (Bindschadler et al. 2008). ...
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Despite the exclusion of the Southern Ocean from assessments of progress towards achieving the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) Strategic Plan, the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) has taken on the mantle of progressing efforts to achieve it. Within the CBD, Aichi Target 11 represents an agreed commitment to protect 10% of the global coastal and marine environment. Adopting an ethos of presenting the best available scientific evidence to support policy makers, CCAMLR has progressed this by designating two Marine Protected Areas in the Southern Ocean, with three others under consideration. The region of Antarctica known as Dronning Maud Land (DML; 20°W to 40°E) and the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean that abuts it conveniently spans one region under consideration for spatial protection. To facilitate both an open and transparent process to provide the vest available scientific evidence for policy makers to formulate management options, we review the body of physical, geochemical and biological knowledge of the marine environment of this region. The level of scientific knowledge throughout the seascape abutting DML is polarized, with a clear lack of data in its eastern part which is presumably related to differing levels of research effort dedicated by national Antarctic programmes in the region. The lack of basic data on fundamental aspects of the physical, geological and biological nature of eastern DML make predictions of future trends difficult to impossible, with implications for the provision of management advice including spatial management. Finally, by highlighting key knowledge gaps across the scientific disciplines our review also serves to provide guidance to future research across this important region.
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The density structure of firn has implications for hydrological and climate modelling, and ice-shelf stability. The structure of firn can be evaluated from depth models of seismic velocity, widely obtained with Herglotz–Wiechert inversion (HWI), an approach that considers the slowness of refracted seismic arrivals. However, HWI is strictly appropriate only for steady-state firn profiles and the inversion accuracy can be compromised where firn contains ice layers. In these cases, full waveform inversion (FWI) may yield more success than HWI. FWI extends HWI capabilities by considering the full seismic waveform and incorporates reflected arrivals. Using synthetic firn density profiles, assuming both steady- and non-steady-state accumulation, we show that FWI outperforms HWI for detecting ice slab boundaries (5–80 m thick, 5–80 m deep) and velocity anomalies within firn. FWI can detect slabs thicker than one wavelength (here, 20 m, assuming a maximum frequency of 60 Hz) but requires the starting velocity model to be accurate to ±2.5%. We recommend for field practice that the shallowest layers of velocity models are constrained with ground-truth data. Nonetheless, FWI shows advantages over established methods, and should be considered when the characterisation of firn ice slabs is the goal of the seismic survey.
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Ice shelves play an essential role in the dynamics of the Antarctic ice sheet. The surface meltwater is important, as it can irreversibly weaken ice shelves by exerting additional hydrostatic pressure. Therefore, high-resolution snowmelt products are urgently needed to accurately analyze melting patterns of ice shelves and further estimate mass loss. In this study, a new high-resolution (40 m) snowmelt dataset over all of the Antarctic Peninsula ice shelves larger than 100 km 2 was developed based on the modified snowmelt detection framework by using a co-orbit normalization method. The dataset provides detailed snowmelt information on each ice shelf, including the image coverage, melting area and melting ratio every 5 days. The melting patterns of three typical ice shelves (George VI, Wilkins and Larsen C Ice Shelves) and the spatio-temporal melting distribution of the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) were further analyzed. The snowmelt information indicates that both the extent and duration of snowmelt have been increasing in the Antarctic Peninsula from 2015 to 2021, and we found that the snowmelt on the Antarctic Peninsula showed a spatial pattern of significantly intense snowmelt on the western side. We believe this study will provide essential data for ice shelf investigation to support other fields of polar research.
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Characterising the structures within glaciers can give unique insight into ice motion processes. On debris-covered glaciers, traditional structural glaciological mapping is challenging because the lower glacier is hidden by the supraglacial debris layer. Here, we use high-resolution optical televiewer (OPTV) image logs from four boreholes drilled into Khumbu Glacier, Nepal, to overcome this limitation and investigate englacial structural features within a Himalayan debris-covered glacier. The OPTV logs show structural features that are up to an order of magnitude thinner than those observed at the glacier surface and reveal five structural units: (I) primary stratification of ice; (II) debris-rich planes that conform with the primary stratification; (III) water-healed crevasse traces; (IV) healed crevasse traces; and (V) steeply dipping planes of basally derived fine sediment near the glacier terminus. The OPTV logs also reveal that the primary stratification both decreases in dip with depth (by up to 56° over 20 m) and rotates with depth (by up to 100° over 20 m) towards parallelism with the proximal lateral moraine. This transformation and the presence of relict layers of basally derived sediment raised into an englacial position – possibly involving thrusting – near the glacier's now stagnant terminus reveal a previously more dynamic glacier regime.
Preprint
The density structure of firn has implications for hydrological and climate modelling, and ice shelf stability. The structure of firn can be evaluated from depth models of seismic velocity, widely obtained with Herglotz-Wiechert Inversion (HWI), an approach that considers the slowness of refracted seismic arrivals. However, HWI is strictly appropriate only for steady-state firn profiles and the inversion accuracy can be compromised where firn contains ice layers. In these cases, Full Waveform Inversion (FWI) may yield more success than HWI. FWI extends HWI capabilities by considering the full seismic waveform and incorporates reflected arrivals. Using synthetic firn density profiles, assuming both steady- and non-steady-state accumulation, we show that FWI outperforms HWI for detecting ice slab boundaries (5-80 m thick, 5-80 m deep) and velocity anomalies within firn. FWI can detect slabs thicker than one wavelength (here, 20 m, assuming a maximum frequency of 60 Hz) but requires the starting velocity model to be accurate to ±2.5%. We recommend for field practice that the shallowest layers of velocity models are constrained with ground-truth data. Nonetheless, FWI shows advantages over established methods, and should be considered when the characterisation of firn ice slabs is the goal of the seismic survey.
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The disintegration of the ice shelves along the Antarctic Peninsula have spurred much discussion on the various processes leading to their eventual dramatic collapse, but without a consensus on an atmospheric forcing that could connect these processes. Here, using an atmospheric river detection algorithm along with a regional climate model and satellite observations, we show that the most intense atmospheric rivers induce extremes in temperature, surface melt, sea-ice disintegration, or large swells that destabilize the ice shelves with 40% probability. This was observed during the collapses of the Larsen A and B ice shelves during the summers of 1995 and 2002 respectively. Overall, 60% of calving events from 2000–2020 were triggered by atmospheric rivers. The loss of the buttressing effect from these ice shelves leads to further continental ice loss and subsequent sea-level rise. Under future warming projections, the Larsen C ice shelf will be at-risk from the same processes. The most intense atmospheric rivers to hit the Antarctic Peninsula induce extremes in temperature, surface melt, sea ice disintegration or swell that destabilize the ice shelves with 40% probability, suggest analyses of observations and regional climate model simulations.
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We present Bedmap2, a new suite of gridded products describing surface elevation, ice-thickness and the seafloor and subglacial bed elevation of the Antarctic south of 60 • S. We derived these products using data from a variety of sources, including many substantial surveys completed since the original Bedmap compilation (Bedmap1) in 2001. In particular, the Bedmap2 ice thickness grid is made from 25 million measurements, over two orders of magnitude more than were used in Bedmap1. In most parts of Antarc-tica the subglacial landscape is visible in much greater detail than was previously available and the improved data-coverage has in many areas revealed the full scale of mountain ranges, valleys, basins and troughs, only fragments of which were previously indicated in local surveys. The derived statistics for Bedmap2 show that the volume of ice contained in the Antarctic ice sheet (27 million km 3) and its potential contribution to sea-level rise (58 m) are similar to those of Bedmap1, but the mean thickness of the ice sheet is 4.6 % greater, the mean depth of the bed beneath the grounded ice sheet is 72 m lower and the area of ice sheet grounded on bed below sea level is increased by 10 %. The Bedmap2 compilation highlights several areas beneath the ice sheet where the bed elevation is substantially lower than the deepest bed indicated by Bedmap1. These products, along with grids of data coverage and uncertainty, provide new opportunities for detailed modelling of the past and future evolution of the Antarctic ice sheets.
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Data collected by two automatic weather stations (AWS) on the Larsen C ice shelf, Antarctica, between 22 January 2009 and 1 February 2011 are analyzed and used as input for a model that computes the surface energy budget (SEB), which includes melt energy. The two AWSs are separated by about 70 km in the north–south direction, and both the near-surface meteorology and the SEB show similarities, although small differences in all components (most notably the melt flux) can be seen. The impact of subsurface absorption of shortwave radiation on melt and snow temperature is significant, and discussed. In winter, longwave cooling of the surface is entirely compensated by a downward turbulent transport of sensible heat. In summer, the positive net radiative flux is compensated by melt, and quite frequently by upward turbulent diffusion of heat and moisture, leading to sublimation and weak convection over the ice shelf. The month of November 2010 is highlighted, when strong westerly flow over the Antarctic Peninsula led to a dry and warm föhn wind over the ice shelf, resulting in warm and sunny conditions. Under these conditions the increase in shortwave and sensible heat fluxes is larger than the decrease of net longwave and latent heat fluxes, providing energy for significant melt.
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We present Bedmap2, a new suite of gridded products describing surface elevation, ice-thickness and the seafloor and subglacial bed elevation of the Antarctic south of 60° S. We derived these products using data from a variety of sources, including many substantial surveys completed since the original Bedmap compilation (Bedmap1) in 2001. In particular, the Bedmap2 ice thickness grid is made from 25 million measurements, over two orders of magnitude more than were used in Bedmap1. In most parts of Antarctica the subglacial landscape is visible in much greater detail than was previously available and the improved data-coverage has in many areas revealed the full scale of mountain ranges, valleys, basins and troughs, only fragments of which were previously indicated in local surveys. The derived statistics for Bedmap2 show that the volume of ice contained in the Antarctic ice sheet (27 million km<sup>3</sup>) and its potential contribution to sea-level rise (58 m) are similar to those of Bedmap1, but the mean thickness of the ice sheet is 4.6% greater, the mean depth of the bed beneath the grounded ice sheet is 72 m lower and the area of ice sheet grounded on bed below sea level is increased by 10%. The Bedmap2 compilation highlights several areas beneath the ice sheet where the bed elevation is substantially lower than the deepest bed indicated by Bedmap1. These products, along with grids of data coverage and uncertainty, provide new opportunities for detailed modelling of the past and future evolution of the Antarctic ice sheets.
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The thickness of ice shelves, a basic parameter for mass balance estimates, is typically inferred using hydrostatic equilibrium, for which knowledge of the depth-averaged density is essential. The densification from snow to ice depends on a number of local factors (e.g., temperature and surface mass balance) causing spatial and temporal variations in density–depth profiles. However, direct measurements of firn density are sparse, requiring substantial logistical effort. Here, we infer density from radio-wave propagation speed using ground-based wide-angle radar data sets (10 MHz) collected at five sites on Roi Baudouin Ice Shelf (RBIS), Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica. We reconstruct depth to internal reflectors, local ice thickness, and firn-air content using a novel algorithm that includes traveltime inversion and ray tracing with a prescribed shape of the depth–density relationship. For the particular case of an ice-shelf channel, where ice thickness and surface slope change substantially over a few kilometers, the radar data suggest that firn inside the channel is about 5 % denser than outside the channel. Although this density difference is at the detection limit of the radar, it is consistent with a similar density anomaly reconstructed from optical televiewing, which reveals that the firn inside the channel is 4.7 % denser than that outside the channel. Hydrostatic ice thickness calculations used for determining basal melt rates should account for the denser firn in ice-shelf channels. The radar method presented here is robust and can easily be adapted to different radar frequencies and data-acquisition geometries.
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