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The Role of a 100% Renewable Energy System for the Future of Iran: Integrating Solar PV, Wind Energy, Hydropower and Storage
Abstract
The devastating effects of fossil fuels on the environment, limited natural sources and increasing demand for energy across the world make renewable energy (RE) sources more important than in the past. COP21 resulted in a global agreement on net zero CO2 emissions shortly after the middle of the 21st century, which will lead to a collapse of fossil fuel demand. To be more precise, whenever the costs of renewable resources decrease, the interest in using them increases. Therefore, suppliers and decision-makers have recently been motivated to invest in RE rather than fossil fuels technologies even though large untapped fossil fuel resources are available. Among RE technologies, Iran has a very high potential for solar energy, followed by wind, and complemented by hydropower, geothermal energy, biomass and waste-to-energy. The focus of the study is to define a cost optimal 100% RE system in Iran using an hourly resolution model. The optimal sets of RE technologies, least cost energy supply, mix of capacities and operation modes were calculated and the role of storage technologies was examined. Two scenarios have been evaluated in this study: a country-wide scenario and an integrated scenario. In the country-wide scenario, RE generation and energy storage technologies cover the country’s power sector electricity demand, however, in the integrated scenario, the RE generated was able to fulfil not only the electricity demand of the power sector but also the substantial demand for electricity for water desalination and synthesis of industrial gas. By adding the sector integration, the total levelized cost of electricity decreased from 45.3 €/MWh to 40.3 €/MWh. The LCOE of 40.3 €/MWh in the integrated scenario is quite cost-effective and beneficial in comparison to other low-carbon but high cost alternatives such as CCS and nuclear energy. The levelized cost of water and the levelized cost of gas are 1.5 €/m3 and 107.8 €/MWhLHV, respectively. A 100% renewable energy system for Iran is found to be a real policy option.
Supplementary resource (1)
... In other words, all the supply-side technology-related measures in the power sector taken together contribute to a fifth of the total (unconditional plus conditional) 12% reduction pledge. Recent analyses (Aghahosseini et al., 2016;Ghorbani et al., 2017;Moshiri and Lechtenböhmer, 2015) of the potential of renewable energy in Iran to meet domestic demand quickly and cost-effectively would justify a more ambitious goal for the sector and demonstrate the feasibility of reaching high shares of variable renewable energy. ...
... Based on a series of bottom-up scenarios on Iran's future energy system, Moshiri and Lechtenböhmer (2015) estimated that a reduction of over 20% of GHG emissions against BAU is feasible by 2030, based only on a renewables-based approach (combined with energy efficiency, the reductions would be of just under 50%) ( Figure 13). The integration of large shares of variable renewable resources into the grid has also been investigated: modelling Iran's electricity sector up to 2050 and considering cost projections for electricity storage revealed that a renewables-based system is the least-cost solution among all the alternatives (such as CCS, gas with CCS, and nuclear energy) for achieving a net zero emission sector (Aghahosseini et al., 2016;Ghorbani et al., 2017). ...
https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/publikationen/implementation-of-nationally-determined-5
... The capacity and share of different power plants in Iran is shown in Fig. 2. Considering the above characteristics, a pathway for transition from an unsustainable energy system towards a fully sustainable one is presented for Iran. Aghahosseini et al. [19] described a 100% RE system for Iran based on different assumptions for the year 2030 in an overnight method, which covered the electricity demand of the power sector, water desalination and non-energy industrial synthetic natural gas production. Levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) of the defined scenario, called the integrated scenario, clearly revealed that RE options are the most competitive and least-cost solution among all the alternatives for achieving a net zero emission energy system. ...
... The energy model optimizes a least cost mix of RE power plants and storage capacities (if required) for each time step to replace fossil electricity generation and to cover the annual electricity consumption of the country. Estimated potentials for biomass and geothermal energy in Iran are taken from [19] and presented in the Supplementary Material (Table 4). The aggregated feed-in profiles for wind energy, CSP, optimally tilted and single-axis tracking PV are calculated according to the method described in [20]. ...
This work presents a pathway for the transition to a 100% renewable energy (RE) system by 2050 for Iran. An hourly resolved model is simulated to investigate the total power capacity required from 2015 to 2050 in 5-year time steps to fulfil the electricity demand for Iran. In addition, shares of various RE resources and storage technologies have been estimated for the applied years, and all periods before in 5-year time steps. The model takes the 2015 installed power plant capacities, corresponding lifetimes and total electrical energy demand to compute and optimize the mix of RE plants needed to be installed to achieve a 100% RE power system by 2050. The optimization is carried out on the basis of assumed costs and technological status of all energy technologies involved. Moreover, the role of storage technologies in the energy system, and integration of the power sector with desalination and non-energetic industrial gas sectors are examined. Our results reveal that RE technologies can fulfil all electricity demand by the year 2050 at a price level of about 32-44 €/MWhel depending on the sectorial integration. Moreover, the combination of solar PV and battery storage is found as a least cost solution after 2030 for Iran. 1. Introduction A transition to an energy system based on 100% renewable energy (RE) is not only possible but also is necessary to respond to rapidly increasing energy demand and address the current climate crisis. However, variability of renewable sources (in particular solar and wind) poses concerns regarding the reliability and cost of an energy system that derives a large fraction of its energy from these sources. This has led to the emergence of energy storage as a key technology in the management of larger shares of energy from renewable sources. Sustainable energy scenarios have been introduced and developed for various parts of the world to highlight possible future energy systems and broaden the perspectives of decision makers on what they should take into consideration [1], [2]. Examining renewable based energy scenarios in Iran is a challenging and interesting case study because of the following country characteristics:
... The full description of the model, its input data including RE resources and technical assumptions can be found in Bogdanov and Breyer [28] and Barbosa et al [32]. For Saudi Arabia, the model described by Aghahosseini et al. [33] was modified with the addition of thermal desalination technologies as another desalination technology and a subsequent energy transition, i.e. the system setup found for one period had been adjusted by the capacities being beyond their technical lifetime as a starting value for incremental optimization for the new period. Figure 2 illustrates the modified energy model. ...
... To determine the capacities of the different renewable energy power plant components, it is necessary to understand the local resources available. The approach discussed by Aghahosseini et al. [33] is used to identify the biomass and geothermal potential available in KSA. Table 3 presents the biomass and geothermal potential results for KSA and it is assumed that these are the amounts available for every time period from 2015 to 2050. ...
Saudi Arabia is in the midst of redefining the vision for the country's future and creating an economy that is not dependent on fossil fuels. This work presents a pathway for Saudi Arabia to transition from the 2015 power structure to a 100% renewable energy based system by 2050 and analyse the benefits of integrating the power sector with the growing desalination sector. It is found that Saudi Arabia can transition to a 100% renewable energy power system by 2040 whilst meeting the growing water demand through seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) desalination plants. The dominating renewable energy sources are PV single-axis tracking and wind power plants with 210 GW and 133 GW, respectively. The levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) of the 2040 system is 48 €/MWh. By 2050, PV single-axis tracking dominates the power sector due to the further reduction in the capital costs alongside cost reductions in supporting battery technology. This results in 80% share of solar PV in the total electricity generation. Battery storage is required to meet the total electricity demand and by 2050, accounts for 48% of the total electricity demand. The LCOE is estimated at 38 €/MWh, required capacity of PV single-axis tracking is 369 GW and wind power plants 75 GW. In the integrated scenario, due to flexibility provided by the SWRO plants, there is a reduced demand for battery storage and power-togas (PtG) plants. In addition, the ratio of the energy curtailed to the total energy generated is lower in all time periods from 2020 to 2050, in the integrated scenario. As a result, the annual levelised costs of the integrated scenario is found to be 2%-4% less than the non-integrated scenario.
... According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), it is expected by 2050, renewable energy accounts for up to 86% of global electricity generation [4]. A study conducted by Aghahosseini et al. [5] forecasts that renewable-based energy generation will be more cost-effective (between 40 and 60 euros/MWh) than conventional energy sources by 2030. Currently, nuclear energy costs up to 110 euros/MWh, and fossil fuel electricity costs up to 120 euros/MWh. ...
The sustainable development of society and the pressure over the use of cleaner technologies have become essential for mankind to avoid climate change. Dichrostachys cinerea (marabou) is a widely grown invasive tree species across the forest in Cuba, considered as an unsolved problem with high potential to be used as a biofuel. This study aims to perform a critical review on the maturity status of thermochemical conversion processes (torrefaction, pyrolysis, gasification, and combustion) using marabou as high-quality biomass to produce a sustainable biofuel. According to the thermochemical properties of marabou, it could be considered as a promising novel feedstock to produce a high-quality biofuel. The current development of thermochemical conversion technologies with the main operating parameters is studied. Combustion is becoming the widespread technology at medium/large scale; however, biomass gasification is the most promising technology at small scale, mainly in off-grid rural communities. Despite torrefaction being in their early stage of research, preliminary studies suggest that is the most economically feasible alternative. To accelerate the commercialization, reduction of pollutant emissions, application of catalyst-based mechanisms and optimization in supply areas are hotspots. The emphasis of this review is to promote the sustainable use of an invasive tree in a developing country as a case study, which can be exploited as an energy resource, providing local and regional incomes, and new investment opportunities not only in small countries but also in isolated areas from large countries.
... Concerning electrical energy, the electrical demand for the water desalination processes can be supplied with renewable energy (RE) as photovoltaic panels (PV) without the need for a battery, which represents an innovative route in solar powering desalination systems. The future trend is RE use as a more economical and efficient solution compatible with climate change mitigation targets [24][25][26], which includes desalination processes and big energy consumers [27]. The adaptation and implementation of RE will allow for providing CS process the required electrical energy and storage surpluses in isolated regions through the use of batteries. ...
Cool steam is an innovative distillation technology based on low-temperature thermal distillation (LTTD), which allows obtaining fresh water from non-safe water sources with substantially low energy consumption. LTTD consists of distilling at low temperatures by lowering the working pressure and making the most of low-grade heat sources (either natural or artificial) to evaporate water and then condensate it at a cooler heat sink. To perform the process, an external heat source is needed that provides the latent heat of evaporation and a temperature gradient to maintain the distillation cycle. Depending on the available temperature gradient, several stages can be implemented, leading to a multi-stage device. The cool steam device can thus be single or multi-stage, being raw water fed to every stage from the top and evaporated in contact with the warmer surface within the said stage. Acting as a heat carrier, the water vapor travels to the cooler surface and condensates in contact with it. The latent heat of condensation is then conducted through the conductive wall to the next stage. Net heat flux is then established from the heat source until the heat sink, allowing distilling water inside every parallel stage.
... The climate plan was linked to a renewable energy target of 5 GW by 2020 and an additional 7.5 GW in 2030 [46]; however, the country has the ability for an even larger deployment. According to the study of Iran-German cooperation [47], Iran has a potential of increasing renewable penetration from 3% to over 38% by 2030 and over 100 GW of renewable capacity [48]. ...
Energy is a key ingredient to facilitate economic development in the Middle East. Expectations for a rapidly growing economy in the next decade will likely cause an increase in the fraction of energy consumed domestically limiting what is available for export. These challenges are the biggest for resource-rich countries, since their economy is heavily dependent on fossil fuel exports alongside an energy-intensive economy. Thus, the paper addresses the question of how the development of energy systems among resource-rich countries has changed over the past three decades and what role can they play in the sustainable development of the region’s energy system and emission reduction goals? To address this question, we present an overview on energy trends in four resource-rich countries in the Middle East, which nearly account for 76% of the region’s energy-related emissions and about 77% of total energy consumption. These countries are namely, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE. Accordingly, we present a comparative energy analysis between the four countries through examining historical and current energy trends, the structure of energy supply, the status of renewable deployment and energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Results from the analysis showed that inefficient energy production and consumption have played a role in the deterioration of the energy landscape of the four countries compared to the global energy system. Thus, this highlights the necessity for suitable energy strategies and effective policies that will be central to sustainable energy development. The analysis presented here could be used to better understanding of the impacts of current gaps and inefficiencies in large energy consumers in the Middle East.
... A key feature of the model is its flexibility and expandability besides the hourly resolution for a full real year. Detailed information on the construction and operation of the hourly linear optimisation model is presented in [33][34][35][36]. Fig. 1 illustrates the LUT model. ...
... In this paper, we investigate the optimal mix of renewables from wind and photovoltaics distributed among the highest voltage substations of a simplied future Vietnamese power system. Similar studies of the power system transition of developing countries have been performed for a variety of countries such as Iran ( [23]) and also Vietnam ( [24]), but in the latter case with a strong focus on conventional generation technologies and without including time-dependent renewable resource availabilities. ...
The Vietnamese Power system is expected to expand considerably in upcoming decades. However, pathways towards higher shares of renewables ought to be investigated. In this work, we investigate a highly renewable Vietnamese power system by jointly optimising the expansion of renewable generation facilities and the transmission grid. We show that in the cost-optimal case, highest amounts of wind capacities are installed in southern Vietnam and solar photovoltaics (PV) in central Vietnam. In addition, we show that transmission has the potential to reduce levelised cost of electricity by approximately 10%.
... In this paper, we investigate the optimal mix of renewables from wind and photovoltaics distributed among the highest voltage substations of a simplied future Vietnamese power system. Similar studies of the power system transition of developing countries have been performed for a variety of countries such as Iran [23] and also Vietnam [24], but in the latter case with a strong focus on conventional generation technologies and without including time-dependent resource availabilities. ...
The Vietnamese Power system is expected to expand considerably in upcoming decades. However, pathways towards higher shares of renewables ought to be investigated. In this work, we investigate a highly renewable Vietnamese power system by jointly optimising the expansion of renewable generation facilities and the transmission grid. We show that in the cost-optimal case, highest amounts of wind capacities are installed in southern Vietnam and solar photovoltaics (PV) in central Vietnam. In addition, we show that transmission has the potential to reduce levelised cost of electricity by approximately 10%.
... The transition to 100% renewable energy systems for the power sector on national and regional levels has been already started all around the world, as indicated by a fast increase of renewable energy installed capacities (Farfan and Breyer, 2016). The financially beneficial projections for Iran and the MENA region for 100% renewables despite abundant fossil-based resources have been studied by Aghahosseini et al. (2016a;. However, there are sectors such as aviation, shipping, heavy transportation and non-energetic application of fossil fuels where hydrocarbons cannot be replaced by electricity easily, or physically not at all. ...
With growing demand for LNG and transportation fuels such as diesel, and concerns about climate change and emission cost, this paper introduces new value chain design for LNG and transportation fuels and respective business cases for Iran, taking into account hybrid PV-Wind power plants. The value chains are based on renewable electricity (RE) converted by power-togas (PtG) or power-to-liquids (PtL) facilities into SNG (which is finally liquefied into LNG) or synthetic liquid fuels, mainly diesel, respectively. The RE-LNG or RE-diesel can be shipped to everywhere in the world. The calculations for the hybrid PV-Wind power plants, electrolysis, methanation (H2tSNG) and hydrogen-to-liquids (H2tL) are done based on both annual full load hours (FLh) and hourly analysis. Results show that the proposed RE-LNG or RE-diesel value chains are competitive for crude oil prices within a minimum price range of about 118-187 USD/barrel (24 – 31 USD/MBtu of LNG production cost) and 102-168 USD/barrel (0.68 – 0.86 €/l of diesel production cost), depending on the chosen specific value chain and assumptions for cost of capital, available oxygen sales and CO2 emission costs. RE-LNG or RE-diesel could become competitive to conventional fuels from an economic perspective, while removing environmental concerns. The RE-PtX value chain needs to be located at the best complementing solar and wind sites in the world combined with a de-risking strategy. This could be an opportunity for Iran to use its abundant source of solar and wind and the available conventional fossil fuel transportation infrastructure to export carbon neutral hydrocarbons around the world where the environmental limitations on conventional hydrocarbons is getting tighter and tighter.
... Aghahosseini et al. [33] analyse a 100% renewable energy system for Iran by the year 2030. The integrated scenario accounts for the power sector electricity demand as well as that of SWRO desalination and industrial SNG production in Iran. ...
Iran is the 17th most populated country in the world with several regions facing high or extremely high water stress. It is estimated that half the population live in regions with 30% of Iran’s freshwater resources. The combination of climate change, increasing national water demand and mismanagement of water resources is forecasted to worsen the situation in Iran. This has led to an increase in interest in the use of non-traditional water supplies to meet the increasing water demand. In this paper it is shown how the future water demand of Iran can be met through seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) desalination plants powered by 100% renewable energy systems, at a cost level competitive with that of current SWRO plants powered by fossil plants in Iran. The SWRO desalination capacity required to meet the 2030 water demand of Iran is estimated to be about 215 million m3/day compared to the 175,000 m3/day installed SWRO desalination capacity of the total 809,607 m3/day desalination capacity in the year 2015. The optimal hybrid renewable energy system for Iran is found to be a combination of solar photovoltaics (PV) fixed-tilted, PV single-axis tracking, Wind, Battery and Power-to-Gas (PtG) plants. The levelized cost of water (LCOW), which includes water production, electricity, water transportation and water storage costs, for regions of desalination demand in 2030, is found to lie between 0.50 €/m3 – 2 €/m3, depending on renewable resource availability and cost of water transport to demand sites. The total system required to meet the 2030 Iranian water demand is estimated to cost 1177 billion € of initial investments. Thus, our work proves that the water crisis in Iran can be averted in a lucrative and sustainable manner.
The emission intensity is considered important data in determining technical and environmental efficiency in power plants. In this research, the goal is to determine the intensity of greenhouse gas emissions in the electricity production sector in Iran under the influence of new energies. To achieve this goal, the total greenhouse gases produced in a year in the electricity sector in fossil and renewable power plants are divided by the total electricity produced and obtained quantitatively in terms of tCO2/kWh. Also, the effect of each primary source of electricity generation is analyzed separately in terms of emission intensity. The results showed that the participation of renewable sources in the highest situation was about 9.5%, and their emission intensity was 2.2 tCO2/kWh. The fossil fuel-based power plant had an estimated emission intensity of 506 tCO2/kWh in the same year. Although the environmental policies in Iran seek to reduce the intensity of emissions, and generally, the growth of this index is negative, there are many fluctuations in this process. With the reduction of rainfall in Iran and the reduction of water behind the dams, the dependence of electricity production on water sources has decreased significantly So that in the year when the precipitation is significant, the intensity of emission has increased from its minimum value of 613.6 tCO2/kWh to 654.34 tCO2/kWh in the year of low rainfall. As a result, it has been suggested that the potential of solar resources, which emission intensity is lower than other renewable sources and is one of the most reliable and stable primary sources, should be used more effectively to reduce the emissions of electricity production sector.
Climate change and global warming have been a focus of attention in several countries in recent years. Greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) are one of the most significant contributors to an environmental hazard. Electricity generation is frequently associated with adverse environmental consequences resulting from fossil fuel use, with carbon dioxide emissions being the most concerning greenhouse gas issue. Thus, renewable energies (RE) development for electricity generation has been favored in recent decades. The current study's primary objective is to determine the impact of renewable energy development on Iran's carbon dioxide emissions. The study employs a system dynamics approach to examine the effects of renewable energy development in Iran in terms of carbon emissions and examined five distinct scenarios: increasing the feed-in tariff, eliminating fossil fuel power plant subsidies, gradually eliminating fossil fuel power plant subsidies, and two combined scenarios that consider the carbon cost of electricity generation. Based on this model, carbon emissions can be reduced by 7% to 41% in the 2040 horizon than the Business as Usual (BAU) scenario.
Renewable energy (RE) has been already viewed as a minor contributor in the final energy mix of North America due to cost and intermittency constraints. However, recent dramatic cost reductions and new initiatives using RE, particularly solar PV and wind energy, as a main energy source for the future energy mix of the world pave the way for enabling this source of energy to become cost competitive and beneficial in comparison to fossil fuels. Other alternatives such as nuclear energy and coal-fired power plants with carbon capture and storage (CCS) cannot play an important role in the future of energy system, mainly due to safety and economic constraints for these technologies. Phasing out nuclear and fossil fuels is still under discussion, however the 'net zero' greenhouse gas emissions agreed at COP21 in Paris clearly guides the pathway towards sustainability. Consequently, RE would be the only trustable energy source towards a clean and sustainable world. In this study, an hourly resolved model has been developed based on linear optimization of energy system parameters under given constraints with a bright perspective of RE power generation and demand for North America. The geographical, technical and economic potential of different types of RE resources in North America, including wind energy, solar PV, hydro, geothermal and biomass energy sources enable the option to build a Super Grid connection between different North American regions' energy resources to achieve synergy effects and make a 100% RE supply possible. The North American region, including the US, Canada and Mexico in this paper, is divided into 20 sub-regions based on their population, demand, area and electricity grid structure. These sub-regions are interconnected by high voltage direct current (HVDC) power lines. The main objective of this paper is to assume a 100% RE-based system for North America in 2030 and to evaluate its results from different perspectives. Four scenarios have been evaluated according to different HVDC transmission grid development levels, including a region-wide, country-wide, area-wide and integrated scenario. The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is found to be 63 €/MWhel in a decentralized scenario. However, it is observed that this amount decreases to 53 €/MWhel in a more centralized HVDC grid connected scenario. In the integrated scenario, which consists of industrial gas production and reverse osmosis water desalination demand, integration of new sectors provides the system with required flexibility and increases the efficiency of the usage of storage technologies. Therefore, the LCOE declines to 42 €/MWhel and the total electricity generation is decreased by around 6.6% in the energy system compared to the non-integrated sectors due to higher system efficiency enabled by more flexibility. The results clearly show that a 100% RE-based system is feasible and a real policy option.
Essentially, there are some effectiveness parameters on variation of measured wind data including season and date, hub height, roughness of land and climate conditions at a specific location. Wind potential assessment based on specifications of wind (data) as the most important factors can be performed for each sites. In this paper, the measured data of wind such as wind speed and wind direction for three year from 2007 to 2009 at different elevations (10, 30 and 40 m) were statically evaluated for Lootak of Zabol. The potential of wind energy as one of the renewable energies resources for power production were evaluated. The three years mean value of some parameters such as wind energy density, wind speed, standard deviation, Weibull parameters (k and c), the most probable wind speed and the optimal wind speed during the whole three years were calculated. Moreover, among five different wind turbines, the monthly and annual variations of capacity factor were investigated for choosing the suitable wind turbine.
In this paper, wind power potential of Mil-E Nader region is statistically analyzed based on 10 min measured short term wind data. Weibull parameters at 40 m height have been estimated and used to describe the distribution of wind data and its frequencies. Additionally, diurnal and monthly wind speed variations have been calculated. Based on power law model and average wind speed at three heights (10, 30 and 40 m), wind speeds at higher elevations have been extrapolated. Energy analysis has been carried out to find best hub height by comparing energy production of several wind turbines with different classes and hub heights. The energy production analysis showed that the wind turbines with 80 m height have high production in comparison to the others.
In this work an estimation and comparison of the technical and sustainable potentials of EGS (Enhanced Geothermal Systems) in Europe is presented. The temperatures at depths of (3500–9500) m were firstly calculated from the available data of temperatures at surface, 1000 m and 2000 m depth, and heat flow. Next the available thermal energy stored in each 1000 m thick layer along the considered depths was evaluated. At this point, the EGS technical potential was estimated and results are presented as installable net electrical power by considering a 30 year time project. A method to estimate the EGS sustainable potential is proposed and the results are compared with the technical potential. Results are presented for the European territory as a whole and individually for each one of the European countries. Estimations for Turkey and the Caucasus region are also presented. Under the hypotheses considered in our study, the technical potential of EGS in Europe for temperatures above 150 °C and depths of between 3 km and 10 km was estimated to be more than 6500 GWe. The part of this technical potential that can be considered as ‘sustainable’ or ‘renewable’ potential was estimated to be 35 GWe.
Energy crisis is one of the issues which have imposed many changes in the development of various technologies around the world. Every-year renewal of this crisis in different countries has led many of them to move towards alternative resources like renewable energies, and also to make changes in their energy consumption in order to expand the application of these resources. By taking into account of Iran's high potential in renewable energies, and also its scheme to go towards actualizing the prices of energy carriers, and with the help of designing a flexible and dynamic structure and removing the existing obstacles, it is necessary to analyze the infrastructures, policies and administrative structures in the field of renewable energies in the country to accelerate their development. This article tries to review the potentials of "renewable energies" (RE) in Iran and its current situation of RE related industries with an emphasis on achieving defined goals and objectives for the fourth national development plan, and also to discusses the barriers and causes of non-achievement of these objectives.
Power systems for South and Central America based on 100% renewable energy (RE) in the year 2030 were calculated for the first time using an hourly resolved energy model. The region was subdivided into 15 sub-regions. Four different scenarios were considered: three according to different high voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission grid development levels (region, country, area-wide) and one integrated scenario that considers water desalination and industrial gas demand supplied by synthetic natural gas via power-togas (PtG). RE is not only able to cover 1813 TWh of estimated electricity demand of the area in 2030 but also able to generate the electricity needed to fulfil 3.9 billion m 3 of water desalination and 640 TWh LHV of synthetic natural gas demand. Existing hydro dams can be used as virtual batteries for solar and wind electricity storage, diminishing the role of storage technologies. The results for total levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) are decreased from 62 €/MWh for a highly decentralized to 56 €/MWh for a highly centralized grid scenario (currency value of the year 2015). For the integrated scenario, the levelized cost of gas (LCOG) and the leve-lized cost of water (LCOW) are 95 €/MWh LHV and 0.91 €/m 3 , respectively. A reduction of 8% in total cost and 5% in electricity generation was achieved when integrating desalination and power-to-gas into the system.
A vast potential of renewable energy sources and a supportive regulatory environment that has been encouraging investments on renewable energy (RE) are driving the development of non-hydro renewable energy generation in South American countries. Therefore, the possibility to build cost competitive independent 100% RE systems is becoming a reality in a near future. New energy systems based on 100% RE in the year 2030 were calculated for South America using an hourly resolved energy system model. The region was subdivided into 15 sub-regions and three different grid development levels were considered in three different scenarios. The integration of reverse osmosis water desalination and industrial natural gas electricity demand was studied in a forth scenario. The results show that different grid development levels lead to different optimal system designs and total electricity generation. However, all the studied scenarios are able to supply 1813 TWh of electricity, what corresponds to the electricity demand of the area in 2030. The integrated scenario is able to generate also the amount of electricity needed to fulfil 3.9 billion m 3 of water desalination demand and 640 TWhLHV demand of synthetic natural gas. For energy storage, hydro dams will operate similar to battery storages diminishing the role of power-togas systems for seasonal storage, especially in a highly centralized grid scenario. In terms of cost, the total system levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is quite low for all the analyzed scenarios: it decreased from 62 €/MWh (for a highly decentralized grid scenario) to 56 €/MWh (for a highly centralized grid scenario). The integration of desalination and power-togas into the system has increased the system's flexibility and efficient usage of storage, reducing the total cost in 8% and the electric energy generation in 5%. From the results it can be concluded that 100% RE-based system is feasible for the year 2030 and with the cost assumptions used in this study more cost competitive than other existing alternatives.
Global power plant capacity has experienced a historical evolution, showing noticeable patterns over the years: continuous growth to meet increasing demand, and renewable energy sources have played a vital role in global electrification from the beginning, first in the form of hydropower but also wind energy and solar photovoltaics. With increasing awareness of global environmental and societal problems such as climate change, heavy metal induced health issues and the growth related cost reduction of renewable electricity technologies, the past two decades have witnessed an accelerated increase in the use of renewable sources. A database was compiled using major accessible datasets with the purpose of analyzing the composition and evolution of the global power sector from a novel sustainability perspective. Also a new sustainability indicator has been introduced for a better monitoring of progress in the power sector. The key objective is to provide a simple tool for monitoring the past, present and future development of national power systems towards sustainability based on a detailed global power capacity database. The main findings are the trend of the sustainability indicator projecting very high levels of sustainability before the middle of the century on a global level, decommissioned power plants indicating an average power plant technical lifetime of about 40 years for coal, 34 years for gas and 34 years for oil-fired power plants, whereas the lifetime of hydropower plants seems to be rather unlimited due to repeated refurbishments, and the overall trend of increasing sustainability in the power sector being of utmost relevance for managing the environmental and societal challenges ahead. To achieve the 2 °C climate change target, zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 may be required. This would lead to stranded assets of about 300 GW of coal power plants already commissioned by 2014. Gas and oil-fired power plants may be shifted to renewable-based fuels. Present power capacity investments have already to anticipate these environmental and societal sustainability boundaries or accept the risk of becoming stranded assets.
Iran is the 17th most populated country in the world with several regions facing high or extremely high water stress. It is estimated that half the population live in regions with 30% of Iran’s freshwater resources. The combination of climate change, increasing national water demand and mismanagement of water resources is forecasted to worsen the situation in Iran. This has led to an increase in interest in the use of non-traditional water supplies to meet the increasing water demand. In this paper it is shown how the future water demand of Iran can be met through seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) desalination plants powered by 100% renewable energy systems, at a cost level competitive with that of current SWRO plants powered by fossil plants in Iran. The SWRO desalination capacity required to meet the 2030 water demand of Iran is estimated to be about 215 million m3/day compared to the 175,000 m3/day installed SWRO desalination capacity of the total 809,607 m3/day desalination capacity in the year 2015. The optimal hybrid renewable energy system for Iran is found to be a combination of solar photovoltaics (PV) fixed-tilted, PV single-axis tracking, Wind, Battery and Power-to-Gas (PtG) plants. The levelized cost of water (LCOW), which includes water production, electricity, water transportation and water storage costs, for regions of desalination demand in 2030, is found to lie between 0.50 €/m3 – 2 €/m3, depending on renewable resource availability and cost of water transport to demand sites. The total system required to meet the 2030 Iranian water demand is estimated to cost 1177 billion € of initial investments. Thus, our work proves that the water crisis in Iran can be averted in a lucrative and sustainable manner.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, comprised of 19 countries, is currently facing a serious challenge to supply their growing economies with secure, affordable and clean electricity. The MENA region holds a high share of proven crude oil and natural gas reserves in the world. Further, it is predicted to have increasing population growth, energy demand, urbanization and industrialization, each of which necessitates a comparable expansion of infrastructure, resulting in further increased energy demand. When planning this expansion, the effects of climate change, land use change and desertification must be taken into account. The MENA region has an excellent potential of renewable energy (RE) resources, particularly solar PV and wind energy, which can evolve to be the main future energy sources in this area. In addition, the costs of RE are expected to decrease relative to conventional energy sources, making a transition to RE across the region economically feasible. The main objective of this paper is to assume a 100% RE-based system for the MENA region in 2030 and to evaluate its results from different perspectives. Three scenarios have been evaluated according to different high voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission grid development levels, including a region-wide, area-wide and integrated scenario. The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is found to be 61 €/MWhel in a decentralized scenario. However, it is observed that this amount decreases to 55 €/MWhel in a more centralized HVDC grid connected scenario. In the integrated scenario, which consists of industrial gas production and reverse osmosis water desalination demand, integration of new sectors provides the system with required flexibility and increases the efficiency of the usage of storage technologies. Therefore, the LCOE declines to 37 €/MWhel and the total electricity generation is decreased by 6% in the system compared to the non-integrated sectors. The results clearly show that a 100% RE-based system is feasible and a real policy option.
This study demonstrates how seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) plants, necessary to meet increasing future global water demand, can be powered solely through renewable energy. Hybrid PV–wind–battery and power-to-gas (PtG) power plants allow for optimal utilisation of the installed desalination capacity, resulting in water production costs competitive with that of existing fossil fuel powered SWRO plants. In this paper, we provide a global estimate of the water production cost for the 2030 desalination demand with renewable electricity generation costs for 2030 for an optimised local system configuration based on an hourly temporal and 0.45° × 0.45° spatial resolution. The SWRO desalination capacity required to meet the 2030 global water demand is estimated to about 2374 million m3/day. The levelised cost of water (LCOW), which includes water production, electricity, water transportation and water storage costs, for regions of desalination demand in 2030, is found to lie between 0.59 €/m3–2.81 €/m3, depending on renewable resource availability and cost of water transport to demand sites. The global system required to meet the 2030 global water demand is estimated to cost 9790 billion € of initial investments. It is possible to overcome the water supply limitations in a sustainable and financially competitive way.
In order to define a cost optimal 100% renewable energy system, an hourly resolved model has been created based on linear optimization of energy system parameters under given constrains. The model is comprised of five scenarios for 100% renewable energy power systems in North-East Asia with different high voltage direct current transmission grid development levels, including industrial gas demand and additional energy security. Renewables can supply enough energy to cover the estimated electricity and gas demands of the area in the year 2030 and deliver more than 2000 TW hth of heat on a cost competitive level of 84 €/MW hel for electricity. Further, this can be accomplished for a synthetic natural gas price at the 2013 Japanese liquefied natural gas import price level and at no additional generation costs for the available heat. The total area system cost could reach 69.4 €/MW hel, if only the electricity sector is taken into account. In this system about 20% of the energy is exchanged between the 13 regions, reflecting a rather decentralized character which is supplied 27% by stored energy. The major storage technologies are batteries for daily storage and power-to-gas for seasonal storage. Prosumers are likely to play a significant role due to favourable economics. A highly resilient energy system with very high energy security standards would increase the electricity cost by 23% to 85.6 €/MW hel. The results clearly show that a 100% renewable energy based system is feasible and lower in cost than nuclear energy and fossil carbon capture and storage alternatives.
Presenting boundary conditions for the economic and environmental utilization of geothermal technology, this is the first book to provide basic knowledge on the topic in such detail. The editor is the coordinator of the European Geothermic Research Initiative, while the authors are experts for the various geological situations in Europe with high temperature reservoirs in shallow and deep horizons. With its perspectives for R&D in geothermic technology concluding each chapter, this ready reference will be of great value to scientists and decision-makers in research and politics, as well as those giving courses in petroleum engineering, for example.
Presentation at the LUT Doctorial School Conference in Lappeenranta at December 10, 2015.
Likelihood of a 100% Renewable World Global Network or Local Autonomy? Timeline for a 100% Renewable World
Photovoltaics (PV) is expected to become one of the cheapest forms of electricity generation during the next decades. The Levelised Cost of Electricity (LCOE) of PV has already reached grid parity with retail electricity in many markets and is approaching wholesale parity in some countries. In this paper, it is estimated that the PV LCOE in main European markets is going to decrease from 2015 to 2030 by about 45% and to 2050 by about 60%. The LCOE for utility-scale PV in Europe will be about 25-45 €/MWh in 2030 and about 15-30 €/MWh in 2050 depending on the location. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the most important parameter together with the annual irradiation in the calculation of the PV LCOE. The uncertainty in capital and operational expenditure (CAPEX and OPEX) is relatively less important while the system lifetime and degradation have only a minor effect. The work for this paper has been carried out under the framework of the EU PV Technology Platform.
Poster on the occasion of the 2nd International Conference on Desalination using Membrane Technology in Singapore on July 26 - 29, 2015.
This paper introduces the resource, status and prospect of solar energy in Iran briefly. Among renewable energy sources, Iran has a high solar energy potential. The widespread deployment of solar energy is promising due to recent advancements in solar energy technologies. Therefore, many investors inside and outside the country are interested to invest in solar energy development. Iran’s total area is around 1600,000 km2 or 1.6×1012 m2 with about 300 clear sunny days in a year and an average 2200 kW-h solar radiation per square meter. Considering only 1% of the total area with 10% system efficiency for solar energy harness, about 9 million MW h of energy can be obtained in a day. The government’s goal on 2012 was to install 53,000 MW capacity plants for electricity generation. To reach this goal, it was assumed that the new gas-fired plants along with the hydroelectric and nuclear power generating plants could be financed by independent power producers including those of foreign investment. Based on the fifth 5 year Socio-economic and Cultural Development Plan, the private sector was expected to have a share of at least 270 MW in renewable energy development. The existing small capacity solar energy plants are in Shiraz, Semnan, Taleghan, Yazd, Tehran and Khorasan. Based on the specified available solar trough technology, solar area, average solar hours and average solar direct irradiation, the technical potential of solar electricity was estimated to be 14.7 TWe. Under the current energy policies, the combined solar, wind and geothermal power plants are economically viable. These huge RES’s potential can be realized assuming the availability of technology, investment capital, human expertise and the other resources along with a long-term driven renewable energy policy. Due to high growth rate of electricity demand in Iran, the nominal installed capacity has increased by 8.9% per annum during 2001-2007. In the reference scenario, the share of RES in total installed electricity capacity is expected to be about 2% in 2030. It is expected that the cumulative RES installed capacity will reach 2.8 GW in 2030. This requires more than 2800 million US dollar investment during 2010-2030.
Water has a significant role in all our daily activities and its overall consumption is growing every day because of increasing scheme of mankind living standards. Iran is located in the dry belt of the earth, where nearly 70% of its area is located in arid and semi-arid regions. At the present time, Iran is experiencing a serious water crisis. It has been projected that the total per capita annual renewable water of the country will reach to about 800 m3 by 2021, which is less than the global threshold of 1000 m3. In this context, seawater desalination seems to be a potential solution to meet the water supply and demand balance in Iran as the country is surrounded by three main water bodies of the Caspian Sea at northern and Persian Gulf and Sea of Oman at the southern borders. Annually, about 120 million cubic meter of freshwater supply is from conventional desalination plants centralized in the southern coastal regions of Iran. The fossil-fuel powered desalination systems are no longer sustainable to overcome the water crisis in the country due to both depletion risks of available energy resources and increase of greenhouse gas emissions. This is while that Iran has excellent solar energy potentials of about 15.3 kWh/m2/day, which can effectively be harnessed to run desalination processes. Therefore, in the modern time, solar desalination is an emerging solution to close the water gap in the country by considering the required change in terms of policy, financing, and regional cooperation to make this alternative method of desalination a success.
Case studies for very large scale PV (VLS-PV) in desert areas, by the IEA PVPS Task8 study, showed that the Gobi desert area of Mongolia is one of the most promising candidate sites for VLS-PV. It is expected that the demonstration phase will be started in the near-term, and it is intended that a concrete sustainable development scheme would be designed and that the capacity of the total PV system, VLS-PV, will reach GW-scale. Further, thinking about a concept of 'Renewable Energy Super Grid' in North-East Asia, the VLS-PV systems should play important roles.
In order to reduce carbon emissions, great efforts are required to optimise the processes and solve the main technical and economic problems which currently limit a large-scale diffusion of CCS (carbon capture and storage) technologies. In this paper, the main results of a techno-economic comparison between USCPC or USC plants (ultra supercritical pulverised coal combustion) with and without CCS are presented. In this study, a few related questions about the development of CCS and power generation technologies in SEE (South East Europe) are answered. The main questions considered are: (1) what are the current cost estimates for building a new entrant power plant with an installed CCS system compared to a typical USC power plant (2) what is the breakeven carbon-dioxide price to justify CCS investment for USCPC power plants. To answer these questions, a LCOE (levelised cost of electricity) model is built for the power plants in study, with assumptions best representing the current costs and technologies in the EU (European Union). Then, a sensitivity analysis of some of the key parameters of the LCOE to reveal their impact on the financial viability of the project is done. The technical model of the plant is implemented in the database of the SEE REM (South East Europe Regional Electricity Market) in order to evaluate its performance on the electricity market and results gained are analysed.
Renewable energies Iran Power plant Solar energy Biomass and biogas Fuel cell and hydrogen Geothermal energy a b s t r a c t Iran as a major oil producing country has increasingly paid attention to the non-fossil energy resources, in particular to renewable energy sources for its longer term energy plans. In this regard, 11 projects pertaining to solar energy are being utilized or carried out by Iran's Ministry of Energy. The total photovoltaic power installed in 2004 was 14,020 MW. This rate reached 67 MW by the end of 2010. Further, two geothermal projects are being constructed in Ardabil Province at present. By the end of 2010, the Meshkinshahr geothermal power plant project revealed a progress rate equal to 50%. Similarly, the package construction project in Ardabil revealed a 32% progress. Due to financial hardship in the Fourth Development Program, the completion of these projects was extended to the end of the Fifth Development Program. The nameplate power of biogas power plants in Iran is 1.860 MW the total installed capacity is 1.665 MW. According to Strategy Document of Fuel Cell Technology Development (Approved by the government in 2004), Iran has revealed good progress in fuel cell projects. Private sectors have already signed contracts to build more than 600 MW of biomass systems and 500 MW of new wind energy developments. The nominal power of the wind parks that can be erected in the available sites with remarkable wind potential in Iran is approximately 6500 MW, employing wind turbines of 60,000 MW nominal power. The estimated mean annual capacity factor of these wind parks is 33%.
Grid-parity is a very important milestone for further photovoltaic (PV) diffusion. A grid-parity model is presented, which is based on levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) coupled with the experience curve approach. Relevant assumptions for the model are given, and its key driving forces are discussed in detail. Results of the analysis are shown for more than 150 countries and a total of 305 market segments all over the world, representing 98.0% of world population and 99.7% of global gross domestic product. High PV industry growth rates enable a fast reduction of LCOE. Depletion of fossil fuel resources and climate change mitigation forces societies to internalize these effects and pave the way for sustainable energy technologies. First grid-parity events occur right now. The 2010s are characterized by ongoing grid-parity events throughout the most regions in the world, reaching an addressable market of about 75–90% of total global electricity market. In consequence, new political frameworks for maximizing social benefits will be required. In parallel, PV industry tackle its next milestone, fuel-parity. In conclusion, PV is on the pathway to become a highly competitive energy technology.
This study demonstrates – based on a dynamical simulation of a global, decentralized 100% renewable electricity supply scenario – that a global climate-neutral electricity supply based on the volatile energy sources photovoltaics (PV), wind energy (onshore) and concentrated solar power (CSP) is feasible at decent cost. A central ingredient of this study is a sophisticated model for the hourly electric load demand in >160 countries. To guarantee matching of load demand in each hour, the volatile primary energy sources are complemented by three electricity storage options: batteries, high-temperature thermal energy storage coupled with steam turbine, and renewable power methane (generated via the Power to Gas process) which is reconverted to electricity in gas turbines. The study determines – on a global grid with 1°x1° resolution – the required power plant and storage capacities as well as the hourly dispatch for a 100% renewable electricity supply under the constraint of minimized total system cost (LCOE). Aggregating the results on a national level results in an levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) range of 80-200 EUR/MWh (on a projected cost basis for the year 2020) in this very decentralized approach. As a global average, 142 EUR/MWh are found. Due to the restricted number of technologies considered here, this represents an upper limit for the electricity cost in a fully renewable electricity supply.
An estimation of the Enhanced Geothermal System's theoretical technical potential for the Iberian Peninsula is presented in this work. As a first step, the temperature at different depths (from 3500 m to 9500 m, in 1000 m steps) has been estimated from existing heat flow, temperature at 1000 m and temperature at 2000 m depth data. From the obtained temperature-at-depth data, an evaluation of the available heat stored for each 1 km thick layer between 3 and 10 km depth, under some limiting hypotheses, has been made. Results are presented as the net electrical power that could be installed, considering that the available thermal energy stored is extracted during a 30 year project life. The results are presented globally for the Iberian Peninsula and separately for Portugal (continental Portugal), Spain (continental Spain plus the Balearic Islands) and for each one of the administrative regions included in the study. Nearly 6% of the surface of the Iberian Peninsula, at a depth of 3500 m has a temperature higher than 150 °C. This surface increases to more than 50% at 5500 m depth, and more than 90% at 7500 m depth. The Enhanced Geothermal System's theoretical technical potential in the Iberian Peninsula, up to a 10 km depth (3 km–10 km) and for temperatures above 150 °C, expressed as potential installed electrical power, is as high as 700 GWe, which is more than 5 times today's total electricity capacity installed in the Iberian Peninsula (renewable, conventional thermal and nuclear).
a b s t r a c t In this study, a ten minute period measuring wind speed data for year 2007 at 10 m, 30 m and 40 m heights for different places in Iran, has been statistically analyzed to determine the potential of wind power generation. Sixty eight sites have been studied. The objective is to evaluate the most important characteristics of wind energy in the studied sites. The statistical attitudes permit us to estimate the mean wind speed, the wind speed distribution function, the mean wind power density and the wind rose in the site at three different heights. Some local phenomena are also considered in the characterization of the site.
In this study, the 3-h period measured wind speed data for years 2003-2007 at 10Â m, 30Â m and 40Â m heights for one of the provinces of Iran. Semnan have been statistically analyzed to determine the potential of wind power generation. This paper presents the wind energy potential at five towns in the province - Biarjmand, Damghan, Garmsar, Semnan, and Shahrood. Extrapolation of the 10Â m data, using the Power Law, has been used to determine the wind data at heights of 30Â m and 40Â m. From the primary evaluation and determining mean wind speed and also weibull distribution, it is found that Damghan has better potential for using wind energy in the province. Thus concentrated on Damghan town and its sites - Moalleman, Haddadeh and also Kahak of Garmsar (only had Meteorological stop) using a 10-min time step wind speed and wind direction data for three measured heights. Between these sites, Moalleman is selected for a more accurate and spacious analysis. The objective is to evaluate the most important characteristic of wind energy in the studied site. The statistical attitudes permit us to estimate the mean wind speed, the wind speed distribution function, the mean wind power density and the wind rose in the site at the height of 10Â m, 30Â m and 40Â m. Some local phenomena are also considered in the characterization of the site.
Manjil is located in north of Iran and is capable of harnessing wind energy for electricity purpose. There are about six different stations in that region which all of them have excellent record of wind speed in different months of the year. It is one of the best locations in the world for installing wind turbine and the utility department has invested a lot of money to establish wind farms in this region. Statistical analysis for six different installed stations show that it is one of the best locations in the world for establishing wind farms. In this paper, wind speed at different sites in Manjil has been analyzed and it shows that it has a great potential for harnessing wind energy. So far, there has been only 51 wind turbines installed in the area and there is a plan to increases that amount in the future.
By the summer of 2001, most of Iranhad been suffering a three-year drought, theworst in recent history. Water rationing was inplace in Tehran and other cities, and largeproportions of the country's crops andlivestock were perishing. Yet many academicsand other experts in Iran insist that the watercrisis is only partly drought-related, andclaim that mismanagement of water resources isthe more significant cause. Underlying thisdiscussion is a complex of overlapping yetoften conflicting ethical systems – Iranian,Islamic, and modernist/industrialist – whichare available to inform water policy in Iran. Areview of the various arguments about thenature of the crisis and the range of solutionsthat have been proposed, including precedentsfrom traditional Iranian water management andthe ethics of water use in Islamic law,suggests that Iran's own cultural heritageprovides alternatives to wholesale adoption ofWestern models.
Electricity demand in MENA region increases fast and is highly dependent on diminishing fossil fuel resources. The grid-parity concept for end-users and the fuel-parity concept on power plant level well describes fast growing economic benefit of PV systems. By end of the 2010s most oil and natural gas fired power plants in MENA region are beyond fuel-parity, i.e. PV power plants are lower in cost than fuel-only cost of oil and gas fired power plants. Solar PV electricity will become a very competitive energy option for entire MENA region.
Global power plant capacity largely depends on burning fossil fuels. Increasing global demand and degrading and diminishing fossil fuel resources are fundamental drivers for constant fossil price escalations. Price trend for solar PV electricity is vice versa. Fuel-parity concept, i.e. PV systems lower in cost per energy than fuel-only cost of fossil fired generators and power plants, well describes the fast growing economic benefit of PV systems. Fuel-parity is already reached in first markets and first applications and will establish very large markets in the 2010s. Solar PV electricity will become a very competitive energy option for most regions in the world.
The activities in field of renewable energy in Iran are focused on scientific and research aspects, and research part is aimed at reduction of capital required for exploitation of related resources. The second step is to work research results into scientific dimension of this field for practical means, i.e. establishing electricity power plants. Due to recent advancements in wind energy, many investors in the country have become interested in investing in this type of energy. At the moment, projects assuming 130 MW of wind power plants are underway, of which, 25 MW is operational. Based on the planning in the 4th Socioeconomic and Cultural Development Plan (2005–2010), private sector is expected to have a share of at least 270 MW in renewable energies. However, it is the government's duty to take the first step for investment in biomass and solar power plants; private sector may then play its part once the infrastructures to this end are laid out. At the moment, a 250 kW plant is under construction in Shiraz and two more geothermal units with 5 and 50 MW capacities will follow. Moreover, two biomass and solar energy plants, standing at 10 and 17 MW, respectively, are of other upcoming projects. The project of Iran's renewable energy, aims to accelerate the sustainable development of wind energy through investment and removal of barriers. This preparatory project is funded by the global environment facility (GEF) and will provide for a number of international and national consultant missions and studies. Once the studies are concluded, a project to develop 25 MW of wind energy in the Manjil region of Gilan will be prepared. It will be consistent with the national development frameworks and objectives and form part of 100 MW of wind-powered energy, which is expected to be developed under the government's third 5-year national development plan (started 21 March 2000).
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