Conference Paper

The MENA Super Grid towards 100% Renewable Energy Power Supply by 2030

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Abstract

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, comprised of 19 countries, is currently facing a serious challenge to supply their growing economies with secure, affordable and clean electricity. The MENA region holds a high share of proven crude oil and natural gas reserves in the world. Further, it is predicted to have increasing population growth, energy demand, urbanization and industrialization, each of which necessitates a comparable expansion of infrastructure, resulting in further increased energy demand. When planning this expansion, the effects of climate change, land use change and desertification must be taken into account. The MENA region has an excellent potential of renewable energy (RE) resources, particularly solar PV and wind energy, which can evolve to be the main future energy sources in this area. In addition, the costs of RE are expected to decrease relative to conventional energy sources, making a transition to RE across the region economically feasible. The main objective of this paper is to assume a 100% RE-based system for the MENA region in 2030 and to evaluate its results from different perspectives. Three scenarios have been evaluated according to different high voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission grid development levels, including a region-wide, area-wide and integrated scenario. The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is found to be 61 €/MWhel in a decentralized scenario. However, it is observed that this amount decreases to 55 €/MWhel in a more centralized HVDC grid connected scenario. In the integrated scenario, which consists of industrial gas production and reverse osmosis water desalination demand, integration of new sectors provides the system with required flexibility and increases the efficiency of the usage of storage technologies. Therefore, the LCOE declines to 37 €/MWhel and the total electricity generation is decreased by 6% in the system compared to the non-integrated sectors. The results clearly show that a 100% RE-based system is feasible and a real policy option.

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... Other research aggregates the sub-regions, so that the world can be represented by 23 regions [37], or an integrated analysis for Europe-Eurasia-MENA [38] or the East Asian Super Grid [39], all in full hourly resolution and interconnected. The 9 major regions are: Europe [40], Eurasia [41], MENA [42], Sub-Saharan Africa [43], India/ SAARC [32], Northeast Asia [30], Southeast Asia and Pacific [44,45], North America [46] and South America [47,48]. Solar PV is represented in the model by ground-mounted optimally tilted and single-axis tracking PV power plants and prosumer rooftop systems, enhanced by batteries in the cases of financial attractiveness for the prosumers. ...
... More detailed results are shown for all 145 sub-regions globally aggregated to the nine major regions for Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia and India/SAARC (Fig. 4), Europe and Eurasia (Fig. 5), MENA and Sub-Saharan Africa (Fig. 6) and North America and South America (Fig. 7). Detailed information on all 145 sub-regions can be found in the respective publications [30,32,[40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48]. ...
... [30], India/SAARC (bottom left) [32] and Southeast Asia (bottom right) [44,45]. [42] and Sub-Saharan Africa (right) [43]. [46] and South America (bottom) [47,48]. ...
Conference Paper
The global energy system has to be transformed towards high levels of sustainability for executing the COP21 agreement. Solar PV offers excellent characteristics to play a major role for this energy transition. Key objective of this work is to investigate the role of PV for the global energy transition based on respective scenarios and a newly introduced energy transition model developed by the authors at the Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT). The available energy transition scenarios have no consensus view on the future role of PV, but a progressive group of scenarios present results of a fast growth of installed PV capacities and a high energy supply share of solar energy to the total primary energy demand in the world in the decades to come. These progressive energy transition scenarios can be confirmed by the LUT Energy system model. The model derives total installed solar PV capacity requirements of 7.1 – 9.1 TWp for today's electricity sector and 27.4 TWp for the entire energy system in the mid-term (year 2030 assumptions set as reference). The long-term capacity is expected to be 42 TWp and due to the ongoing cost reduction of PV and battery technologies, this value is found to be the lower limit for the installed capacities. The cost reductions are taken into account for the year 2030, but are expected to further proceed beyond this reference year. Solar PV electricity is expected to be the largest, least cost and most relevant source of energy in the mid-to long-term for the global energy supply.
... Other research aggregates the sub-regions, so that an integrated analysis can be carried out for Europe-Eurasia-MENA [39] and East Asia [40], all in full hourly resolution and interconnected. The nine major world regions are: Europe [41], Eurasia [42], Middle East Northern Africa (MENA) [43], Sub-Saharan Africa [44], India/SAARC [33], Northeast Asia [30], Southeast Asia and the Pacific Rim [40,45], North America [46] and South America [47]. Solar PV is represented in the model by groundmounted optimally tilted and single-axis tracking PV power plants and prosumer rooftop systems, enhanced by batteries in the cases of financial attractiveness for the prosumers. ...
... Some scenarios give some insights, but detailed information is missing for all scenarios. Nevertheless, the LUT Energy system model delivers detailed cost results, which are presented in summary in Table III and in more detail in the respective publications for the nine major world regions [30,33,[40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47]. One of the most interesting results of the 100% RE system modelling with 2030 assumptions is the low cost of the energy systems around the world. ...
... The key results of the LUT Energy system modelling are a PV capacity demand of 7. Data are based on [30,33,[40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47] and visualised in more detail in Figures 3-7, with updated results for Northeast Asia based on latest assumptions for all major world regions. Superscripts: * integrated scenario, supply share and ** annualised costs. ...
Article
The global energy system has to be transformed towards high levels of sustainability in order to comply with the COP21 agreement. Solar photovoltaic (PV) offers excellent characteristics to play a major role in this energy transition. The key objective of this work is to investigate the role of PV in the global energy transition based on respective scenarios and a newly introduced energy transition model developed by the authors. A progressive group of energy transition scenarios present results of a fast growth of installed PV capacities and a high energy supply share of solar energy to the total primary energy demand in the world in the decades to come. These progressive energy transition scenarios can be confirmed. For the very first time, a full hourly modelling for an entire year is performed for the world, subdivided in 145 sub-regions, which is required to reflect the intermittent character of the future energy system. The model derives total installed solar PV capacity requirements of 7.1–9.1 TWp for the electricity sector (as of the year 2015) and 27.4 TWp for the entire energy system in the mid-term. The long-term capacity is expected to be 42 TWp and, because of the ongoing cost reduction of PV and battery technologies, this value is found to be the lower limit for the installed capacities. Solar PV electricity is expected to be the largest, least cost and most relevant source of energy in the mid-term to long-term for the global energy supply.
... Any other CO2 source has to compete with this cost reference to achieve a positive effect on the overall costoptimized system. Aghahosseini et al. [55] concluded for the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA) region that the sector integration of a 100% renewable electricity system with seawater desalination and industrial gas demand could lead to an additional cost benefit for the total energy system of 10.8%, due to an increased level of flexibility, which may be used for a further optimization of the utilization of intermittent RE sources. The PtX options discussed in this article have not yet been integrated in a comprehensive energy system analysis investigating further potential cost reductions due to more flexibility. ...
... Any other CO 2 source has to compete with this cost reference to achieve a positive effect on the overall cost-optimized system. Aghahosseini et al. [55] concluded for the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA) region that the sector integration of a 100% renewable electricity system with seawater desalination and industrial gas demand could lead to an additional cost benefit for the total energy system of 10.8%, due to an increased level of flexibility, which may be used for a further optimization of the utilization of intermittent RE sources. The PtX options discussed in this article have not yet been integrated in a comprehensive energy system analysis investigating further potential cost reductions due to more flexibility. ...
Article
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Concerns about climate change and increasing emission costs are drivers for new sources of fuels for Europe. Sustainable hydrocarbons can be produced synthetically by power-to-gas (PtG) and power-to-liquids (PtL) facilities, for sectors with low direct electrification such as aviation, heavy transportation and chemical industry. Hybrid PV–Wind power plants can harvest high solar and wind potentials of the Maghreb region to power these systems. This paper calculates the cost of these fuels for Europe, and presents a respective business case for the Maghreb region. Calculations are hourly resolved to find the least cost combination of technologies in a 0.45⁰ x 0.45⁰ spatial resolution. Results show that, for 7% weighted average cost of capital (WACC), renewable energy based synthetic natural gas (RE-SNG) and RE-diesel can be produced in 2030 for a minimum cost of 76 €/MWh,HHV (0.78 €/m3 SNG) and 88 €/MWh,HHV (0.85 €/L), respectively. While in 2040, these production costs can drop to 66 €/MWh,HHV (0.68 €/m3 SNG) and 83 €/MWhHHV (0.80 €/L), respectively. Considering access to a WACC of 5% in a de-risking project, oxygen sales and CO2 emissions costs, RE-diesel can reach fuel-parity at crude oil prices of 101 and 83 USD/bbl in 2030 and 2040, respectively. Thus, RE-synthetic fuels could be produced to answer fuel demand and remove environmental concerns in Europe at an affordable cost.
... In political and economic circles, interest is high in investigating whether BSR countries can develop energy cooperation and become "stronger together" on the way to a 100% renewable energy (RE) system [6]. And recent scientific investigations of global and regional energy systems indicate that interconnected energy systems can result in greater cost savings while also achieving high levels of RE, resilience and sustainability [7]- [13]. Such benefits of interconnections as well as sector integration have also been seen for Europe in general [14]- [16], and for the Nordic region [17], but a systematic analysis of a potential energy transition for the BSR is lacking. ...
... The LCOE values obtained in this work indicate that the cost of electricity could decrease from 60 €/kWh in 2015 to 48 €/kWh in 2050 for the Regions scenario and to 45 €/kWh in 2050 for the Area scenario. Results for the transition of the BSR towards 100% RE in terms of LCOE are consistent with several other similar transition studies using the LUT Energy System Transition model, which show a range of about 50-70 €/MWh for 2030 [9]- [13], [29]- [32]. ...
Article
Full-text available
The Baltic Sea Region could become the first area of Europe to reach a 100% renewable energy (RE) power sector. Simulations of the system transition from 2015 to 2050 were performed using an hourly resolved model that defines the roles of storage technologies in a least cost system configuration. Investigated technologies are batteries, pumped hydro storage, adiabatic compressed air energy storage, thermal energy storage, and power-to-gas. Modelling proceeds in five-year time steps, and considers current energy system assets and projected demands to determine the optimal technology mix needed to achieve 100% RE electricity by 2050. This optimization is carried out under the assumed cost and status of all technologies involved. Results indicate the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) falls from 60 €/MWhe to 45 €/MWhe over time through adoption of low cost RE power generation and from inter-regional grid interconnection. Additionally, power system flexibility and stability are provided by ample resources of storable bioenergy, hydropower, inter-regional power transmission, and increasing shares of energy storage, together with expected price decreases in storage technologies. Total storage requirements include 0-238 GWhe of batteries, 19 GWhe of pumped hydro storage, and 0-16,652 GWhgas of gas storage. The cost share of storage in total LCOE increases from under 1 €/MWh to up to 10 €/MWh over time. Outputs of power-to-gas begin in 2040 when RE generation approaches a share of 100% in the power system, and total no more than 2 GWhgas due to the relatively large roles of bioenergy and hydropower in the system, which preclude the need for high amounts of additional seasonal storage. A 100% RE system can be an economical and efficient solution for the Baltic Sea Region, one that is also compatible with climate change mitigation targets set out at COP21. Concurrently, effective policy and planning is needed to facilitate such a transition.
... Regulatory models only take the long-term energy system structure into account and short-term market mechanisms are not considered. This model has already been applied to several regions up to now [24]- [30], and a detailed description can be found in those studies. Further technical and financial assumptions can be found in the Supplementary Material in the appendix of this paper. ...
... The electricity cost is decreased remarkably in the RE-based system due to the installation of a HVDC transmission grid. The reduction of electricity cost by connection of HVDC grid has been also observed in other studies carried out with the same criteria [24]- [30]. The total levelized cost of electricity in the region decreased from 63 €/MWh for the region-wide open trade scenario to 53 €/MWh for the area-wide open trade scenario and to 42 €/MWh for the integrated scenario. ...
Conference Paper
Renewable energy (RE) has been already viewed as a minor contributor in the final energy mix of North America due to cost and intermittency constraints. However, recent dramatic cost reductions and new initiatives using RE, particularly solar PV and wind energy, as a main energy source for the future energy mix of the world pave the way for enabling this source of energy to become cost competitive and beneficial in comparison to fossil fuels. Other alternatives such as nuclear energy and coal-fired power plants with carbon capture and storage (CCS) cannot play an important role in the future of energy system, mainly due to safety and economic constraints for these technologies. Phasing out nuclear and fossil fuels is still under discussion, however the 'net zero' greenhouse gas emissions agreed at COP21 in Paris clearly guides the pathway towards sustainability. Consequently, RE would be the only trustable energy source towards a clean and sustainable world. In this study, an hourly resolved model has been developed based on linear optimization of energy system parameters under given constraints with a bright perspective of RE power generation and demand for North America. The geographical, technical and economic potential of different types of RE resources in North America, including wind energy, solar PV, hydro, geothermal and biomass energy sources enable the option to build a Super Grid connection between different North American regions' energy resources to achieve synergy effects and make a 100% RE supply possible. The North American region, including the US, Canada and Mexico in this paper, is divided into 20 sub-regions based on their population, demand, area and electricity grid structure. These sub-regions are interconnected by high voltage direct current (HVDC) power lines. The main objective of this paper is to assume a 100% RE-based system for North America in 2030 and to evaluate its results from different perspectives. Four scenarios have been evaluated according to different HVDC transmission grid development levels, including a region-wide, country-wide, area-wide and integrated scenario. The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is found to be 63 €/MWhel in a decentralized scenario. However, it is observed that this amount decreases to 53 €/MWhel in a more centralized HVDC grid connected scenario. In the integrated scenario, which consists of industrial gas production and reverse osmosis water desalination demand, integration of new sectors provides the system with required flexibility and increases the efficiency of the usage of storage technologies. Therefore, the LCOE declines to 42 €/MWhel and the total electricity generation is decreased by around 6.6% in the energy system compared to the non-integrated sectors due to higher system efficiency enabled by more flexibility. The results clearly show that a 100% RE-based system is feasible and a real policy option.
... All other energy technologies are not limited to any value, but bioenergy and geothermal have their own specific assumptions based on the country's natural potential. Geothermal capacity calculations and assumptions are discussed by Aghahosseini et al. (2016) and the capacity is taken as 1438 GW for Turkey with the same approach. ...
... The RE supply is growing substantially for covering the increasing energy demand in Turkey. Comparable cost reduction results are shown previously for the MENA region for 2030 assumptions (Aghahosseini et al., 2016), Saudi Arabia (Caldera et al., 2016) and Ukraine (Child et al., 2017). The highest solar PV share found so far has been for Saudi Arabia of about 80% in 2050, and for Ukraine a solar PV share of about 44% has been found. ...
Article
an hourly resolved model. Turkey is structured into seven geographical regions and all assumptions and data are collected and applied separately for the regions. The energy transition is simulated for two scenarios: a power sector scenario and power sector plus desalination and non-energetic industrial gas demand (integrated) scenario. Turkey has an enormous solar energy potential, which leads to an installed solar PV capacity of 287 GW (71% of total installed capacity) in the power scenario and 387 GW (73% of total installed capacity) in the integrated scenario in 2050. Solar PV and other installed RE systems are balanced by storage systems to increase the flexibility of the system. Levelised cost of electricity increased slightly in the power scenario, from a fossil fuel based system with 63 €/MWhel in 2015 to a fully RE-based system with 65.4 €/MWhel in 2050. The capacity mix in the power scenario entirely built for the assumptions of the year 2050 led to a cost of 51 €/MWhel, which can also be expected in the periods beyond 2050. In the integrated scenario, however, the costs decreased from 60.3 €/MWhel to 57.3 €/MWhel, mainly due to the benefit of sector coupling. A 100% RE system reduces energy import dependency and carbon emissions, while reducing the cost of energy supply.
... In political and economic circles, interest is high in investigating whether BSR countries can develop energy cooperation and become "stronger together" on the way to a 100% renewable energy (RE) system [6]. And recent scientific investigations of global and regional energy systems indicate that interconnected energy systems can result in greater cost savings while also achieving high levels of RE, resilience and sustainability [7]- [13]. Such benefits of interconnections as well as sector integration have also been seen for Europe in general [14]- [16], and for the Nordic region [17], but a systematic analysis of a potential energy transition for the BSR is lacking. ...
... The LCOE values obtained in this work indicate that the cost of electricity could decrease from 60 €/kWh in - [13], [29]- [32]. Other similar energy transition studies also suggest that least cost power systems for 2050 can be achieved with 100% RE [26], [33]- [37]. ...
Conference Paper
The Baltic Sea Region could become the first area of Europe to reach a 100% renewable energy (RE) power sector. Simulations of the system transition from 2015 to 2050 were performed using an hourly resolved model which defines the roles of storage technologies in a least cost system configuration. Investigated technologies are batteries, pumped hydro storage, adiabatic compressed air energy storage, thermal energy storage, and power-togas. Modelling proceeds in five-year time steps, and considers current energy system assets and projected demands to determine the optimal technology mix needed to achieve 100% RE electricity by 2050. This optimization is carried out under the assumed cost and status of all technologies involved. Results indicate the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) falls from 60 €/MWhe to 45 €/MWhe over time through adoption of low cost RE power generation and from interregional grid interconnection. Additionally, power system flexibility and stability are provided by ample resources of storable bioenergy, hydropower, interregional power transmission, and increasing shares of energy storage, together with expected price decreases in storage technologies. Total storage requirements include 0-238 GWhe of batteries, 19 GWhe of pumped hydro storage, and 0-16,652 GWhgas of gas storage. The cost share of storage in total LCOE increases from under 1 €/MWh to up to 10 €/MWh over time. Outputs of power-togas begin in 2040 when RE generation approaches a share of 100% in the power system, and total no more than 2 GWhgas due to the relatively large roles of bioenergy and hydropower in the system, which preclude the need for high amounts of additional seasonal storage. A 100% RE system can be an economical and efficient solution for the Baltic Sea Region, one that is also compatible with climate change mitigation targets set out at COP21. Concurrently, effective policy and planning is needed to facilitate such a transition.
... MENA is comprised of countries that are emerging economies as well as developed, with around 7% share in global GDP (IMF, 2017). This region is amongst the largest energy producers in the world, with an increasingly high share of demand (Aghahosseini et al., 2016). The total electricity consumption was around 1360 TWh in 2015, which is estimated to rise to 3320 TWh by 2050 (IEA, 2016). ...
Thesis
Full-text available
There are undeniable signs from all over the world demonstrating that climate change is already upon us. Numerous scientific studies have warned of dire consequences should humankind fail to keep average global temperatures from rising beyond 1.5°C. Drastic measures to eliminate greenhouse gas emissions from all economic activities across the world are essential. Major emphasis has been on the energy sector, which contributes the bulk of GHG emissions. Inevitably, energy scenarios describing future transition pathways towards low, and zero emissions energy systems are commonly proposed as mitigation strategies. However, there is growing awareness in the research community that energy transitions should be understood and analysed not only from technical and economical perspectives but also from a social perspective. This research explores the broader ramifications of a global energy transition from various dimensions: costs and externalities of energy production, democratisation of future energy systems and the role of prosumers, employment creation during energy transitions at the global, regional and national levels and the effects of air pollution during energy transitions across the world. This research builds on fundamental techno-economic principles of energy systems and relies firmly on a cost driven rationale for determining cost optimal energy system transition pathways. Techno-economic analyses of energy transitions around the world are executed with the LUT Energy System Transition Model, while the corresponding socioeconomic aspects are expressed in terms of levelised cost of electricity, cost effective development of prosumers, job creation, and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions along with air pollution. Findings during the course of this original research involved novel assessments of the levelised cost of electricity encompassing externalities across G20 countries, cost optimal prosumer modelling across the world, estimates of job creation potential of various renewables, storage and power-to-X technologies including the production of green hydrogen and e-fuels during global, regional and national energy transitions. The novel research methods and insights are published in several articles and presented in this thesis, which highlight robust socioeconomic benefits of transitioning the current fossil fuels dominated global energy system towards renewables complemented by storage and flexible power-to-X solutions, resulting in near zero emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants. These research findings and insights have significant relevance to stakeholders across the energy landscape and present a compelling case for the rapid transformation of energy systems across the world. However, the research does have limitations and is based on energy transition pathways that are inherent with uncertainties and some socioeconomic challenges. Nonetheless, actions to enhance and accelerate the ongoing energy transition across the world must be prioritised, if not for technical feasibility or economic viability, but for the social wellbeing of human society and future generations.
... Thus, there are no further installations in wind power plants after 2030. This result documents the outstanding impact of low cost solar PV supported by low cost battery storage that lead to a solar PV electricity generation share of 79%, which is significantly higher than the average of about 40% found in the global average assumptions for the year 2030 [25], but also higher than the 48% solar PV share for the MENA region [66]. However, comparable results had been found already earlier for the case of Israel [30], where the solar PV share had be found for cost optimized systems to about 90% of the total electricity supply. ...
Article
Full-text available
This work presents a pathway for Saudi Arabia to transition from the 2015 power structure to a 100% renewable energy-based system by 2050 and investigates the benefits of integrating the power sector with the growing desalination sector. Saudi Arabia can achieve 100% renewable energy power system by 2040 while meeting increasing water demand through seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) and multiple effect distillation (MED) desalination plants. The dominating renewable energy sources are PV single-axis tracking and wind power plants with 243 GW and 83 GW, respectively. The levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) of the 2040 system is 49 €/MWh and decreases to 41 €/MWh by 2050. Corresponding levelised cost of water (LCOW) is found to be 0.8 €/m3 and 0.6 €/m3. PV single-axis tracking dominates the power sector. By 2050 solar PV accounts for 79% of total electricity generation. Battery storage accounts for 41% of total electricity demand. In the integrated scenario, due to flexibility provided by SWRO plants, there is a reduced demand for battery storage and power-to-gas (PtG) plants as well as a reduction in curtailment. Thus, the annual levelised costs of the integrated scenario is found to be 1–3% less than the non-integrated scenario.
... Equally, Aghahosseini et al. (2016) concur with KAPSARC (2018) that the removal of subsidies has the effect of reducing the level of vertical integration and monopolisation, thereby making the market attractive for independent power producers (IPPs). In support of this, Al-Saidi, (2020) also indicated that the withdrawal of subsidies in the MENA region could free up resources estimated at 18% of regional GDP. ...
Thesis
Full-text available
In past decades, few oil-producing countries have paid significant attention to renewable energy utilization due to the widespread availability of fossil fuels with well-established production technologies. However, in recent years, it has become clear that this has adverse environmental, economic, and social effects, and may also threaten these nations' energy security. As a result, the State of Kuwait has declared its intention to meet 15% of its energy needs from renewable sources by 2030. This study explores the drivers of current and future energy demand in Kuwait, assesses the nation’s progress towards its 15% target, and suggests a policy framework and medium and long-term strategies to enhance renewable energy utilisation within the oil-rich state. Energy consumption and renewable energy utilisation data were obtained from the general public, government organisations, and private sector stakeholders in the country using a mixed-methods approach. Qualitative data was collected through semi-structured interviews with experts, legislators, and policymakers in governmental and non-governmental organisations with links to Kuwait's energy and renewable energy sector. Quantitative data was gathered using structured questionnaires targeting three groups of participants: members of the general public, official organisations, and academic organisations; these questionnaires sought to ascertain respondents’ attitudes towards environmental issues, especially the positive effects of utilising renewable energy instead of fossil fuels. The collected data were coded and analysed, with a SWOT analysis used to examine the viability of solar energy as an alternative to conventional fossil-based fuels in Kuwait. The results provided positive indications of belief in sustainability, the need to protect the environment, and the desire to achieve energy security in the long term for future generations. 75.7% of respondents were characterised as showing high to moderate levels of energy conservation; however, the findings suggest that greater efforts must be made to encourage the rest of the population to become more energy aware and improve their consumption behaviour, ideally via more public-awareness campaigns and other initiatives by the Kuwaiti government. 91% of respondents believe that official (or government) organisations should support citizens who use renewable energy in their homes by, for example, providing financial benefits, including lower electricity bills or feed-in-tariffs. 87.5% of participants chose solar energy as the most suitable renewable energy source to invest in due to its widespread availability in Kuwait. However, most interviewees considered that the Kuwaiti government is in a precarious position in respect of its 15% goal. The research findings indicate that the economic viability of renewable energy is still a significant challenge, due in part to the ongoing subsidisation of fossil fuels, and this is exacerbated by over-consumption. In terms of energy supply and demand, findings from the questionnaires and interviews indicate that the State of Kuwait is currently struggling to meet rapidly rising demand. In order to achieve its 2030 target, the country needs to invest in several types of renewable energy generation, notably at the Al-Shagaya project, to overcome the barriers to private sector investment in the production of renewable energy technologies, and to develop coherent strategies to expand renewable energy utilisation. This study proposes a National Policy Framework for Renewable Energy for Kuwaiti policymakers, focussing on energy demand, consumer efficiency, and renewable energy utilisation, and aiming to increase knowledge and awareness about renewable energy utilisation at the individual and governmental levels. The four areas targeted for policy and legislation are a) increasing awareness about energy consumption and renewable energy utilisation; b) monitoring and evaluating systems to improve user efficiency and encourage renewable energy use; c) introducing rewards and subsidies to promote energy efficiency and renewable energy utilisation; and d) boosting the portfolio of renewable energy projects. It also proposes a medium term (2030) and a longer term (2050) strategy for renewable energy utilisation. The Renewable Energy Strategy for 2030 involves developing the necessary policies and legal frameworks, creating the infrastructure for renewable energy sites and farms, and setting aside capital to acquire the necessary resources. The recommend strategies for 2050 are to invest in the production of renewable energy components, notably solar panels and storage mechanisms, and to diversify renewable energy sources to include wave and wind energy.
... A similar finding had been observed for the integration of the regions of Europe, Eurasia and MENA, for which the integration benefit was 1.3% [48]. East Asia and EuropeEurasiaMENA show the same characteristic, that a deep integration from a region-wide to an area-wide integration within a region is highly beneficial in the range of 5%-16%, since this had been found for all five major regions involved: Northeast Asia (11%) [23], Southeast Asia (5%) [22], Europe (11%) [49], Eurasia (16%) [50], and MENA (10%) [51]), but not for an integration of two neighboring major regions. Very long power lines between 1500 and 2000 km or more do not generate financial benefits, as found so far for Northeast Asia [47]. ...
Conference Paper
Energy is a key driver for social and economic change. Many countries trying to develop economically and socially and many developed countries trying to maintain their economic growth will create a huge demand for energy in the future. The growth in energy production will put our climate at risk, without change in the existing fossil fuel based energy system. In this paper, 100% renewable energy based system is discussed for East Asia, integrating the two large regions of Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia. Regional integration of the two regions does not provide significant benefit to the energy system in terms of cost reduction. However, reduction of 0.4-0.7% in terms of total annual cost of the system can be achieved for East Asia, mainly realised in optimising the bordering regions of South China and Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia. The idea of Australia being an electricity source for Asia, does not pay off due to the long distances and local storage of the generated electricity in the regions is more cost competitive. However, such an integration provides a sustainable and economically feasible energy system with the cost of electricity between 53-66 €/MWh for the year 2030 with the assumptions used in this study. The described energy system will be very cost competitive to the widely discussed nuclear and fossil carbon-capture and storage (CCS) alternatives.
... A similar finding had been observed for the integration of the regions of Europe, Eurasia and MENA, for which the integration benefit was 1.3% [48]. East Asia and EuropeEurasiaMENA show the same characteristic, that a deep integration from a region-wide to an area-wide integration within a region is highly beneficial in the range of 5%-16%, since this had been found for all five major regions involved: Northeast Asia (11%) [23], Southeast Asia (5%) [22], Europe (11%) [49], Eurasia (16%) [50], and MENA (10%) [51]), but not for an integration of two neighboring major regions. Very long power lines between 1500 and 2000 km or more do not generate financial benefits, as found so far for Northeast Asia [47]. ...
Article
Full-text available
The Paris Agreement points out that countries need to shift away from the existing fossil-fuel-based energy system to limit the average temperature rise to 1.5 or 2 °C. A cost-optimal 100% renewable energy based system is simulated for East Asia for the year 2030, covering demand by power, desalination, and industrial gas sectors on an hourly basis for an entire year. East Asia was divided into 20 sub-regions and four different scenarios were set up based on the level of high voltage grid connection, and additional demand sectors: power, desalination, industrial gas, and a renewable-energy-based synthetic natural gas (RE-SNG) trading between regions. The integrated RE-SNG scenario gives the lowest cost of electricity (€52/MWh) and the lowest total annual cost of the system. Results contradict the notion that long-distance power lines could be beneficial to utilize the abundant solar and wind resources in Australia for East Asia. However, Australia could become a liquefaction hub for exporting RE-SNG to Asia and a 100% renewable energy system could be a reality in East Asia with the cost assumptions used. This may also be more cost-competitive than nuclear and fossil fuel carbon capture and storage alternatives.
... During our work we simulate optimal RE-based energy systems globally. The world is divided into 9 geographiceconomic major regions: Europe [1], Eurasia [2], Northwest Asia [3], Southwest Asia [4], Indian subcontinent [5], Middle East North Africa (MENA) [6], Sub-Saharan Africa, [7], North America [8] and South America [9], and for every region PV generation takes an important role in energy supply [10]. For each major region an optimal structure of a REbased energy system was defined using the LUT energy system model, an hourly dispatched linear optimization model for minimizing total energy system costs, which uses real weather data and a synthetized load, while taking specific aspects and given constraints into account. ...
Conference Paper
Need to transform the energy system towards 100% renewable generation is well understood and such a transformation has already started. However, this transformation will be full of challenges and there will be no standard solution for energy supply, every regional energy system will be specific, because of local specific climatic and geographical conditions and consumption patterns. Based on the two major energy sources all regions can be divided into two categories: PV and Wind energy based regions. Moreover, local conditions will not only influence the optimal generation mix, but also optimal storage capacities choice. In this work we observe a strong coupling between PV and short-term storage utilisation in all major regions in the world: in the PV generation based energy systems short-term storage utilisation is much higher than in wind-based systems. Finally, PV-based energy systems demand a significant capacity for short-term storage, the more the more PV generation takes place locally.
... This trend indicated that Europe can reach a 100% renewable, carbon emission neutral (net zero) energy system in next decades. RE generation is not that developed in Eurasia and Middle East and North Africa (MENA) yet, though these regions also have great potentials due to excellent RE resources and a much lower population density [2,3]. ...
Conference Paper
The existing fossil fuel based power sector has to be transformed towards carbon neutrality in close future to limit global warming to 2ºC. The 100% renewable energy (RE) based system will be discussed in the paper. Such a system can be built using already existing energy generation, storage and transmission technologies. A regional integration of Europe, Eurasia and MENA energy systems will facilitate access to lower cost energy sources in neighboring regions, provide additional flexibility in the system and decrease the need in energy storage and increase the system stability because of more distributed generation. Additional demand from synthetic gas generation will additionally decrease the energy storage demand, additional flexibility enables the system to use lower cost energy sources and the primary energy generation cost decreases. Finally, such an integration can provide a sustainable and economically feasible energy system with total LCOE of about 50 €/MWh for the year 2030 cost assumptions. Even for a much higher energy demand in the system the total LCOE will be around 42 €/MWh – lower than coal-CCS or new nuclear options.
... By 2050, about 369 GW of PV single-axis tracking and 76 GW of wind power plants are required. This result documents the outstanding impact of low cost solar PV supported by low cost battery storage which leads to a solar PV electricity generation share of 80%, which is significantly higher than the average of about 40% found in the global average for year 2030 assumptions [24], but also as the 48% solar PV share for the MENA region [44]. However, comparable results had been found already earlier for the case of Israel [29], where the solar PV share had be found for cost optimized systems to about 90% of the total electricity supply, however for less good wind conditions as in Saudi Arabia, but for year 2030 assumptions. ...
Conference Paper
Saudi Arabia is in the midst of redefining the vision for the country's future and creating an economy that is not dependent on fossil fuels. This work presents a pathway for Saudi Arabia to transition from the 2015 power structure to a 100% renewable energy based system by 2050 and analyse the benefits of integrating the power sector with the growing desalination sector. It is found that Saudi Arabia can transition to a 100% renewable energy power system by 2040 whilst meeting the growing water demand through seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) desalination plants. The dominating renewable energy sources are PV single-axis tracking and wind power plants with 210 GW and 133 GW, respectively. The levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) of the 2040 system is 48 €/MWh. By 2050, PV single-axis tracking dominates the power sector due to the further reduction in the capital costs alongside cost reductions in supporting battery technology. This results in 80% share of solar PV in the total electricity generation. Battery storage is required to meet the total electricity demand and by 2050, accounts for 48% of the total electricity demand. The LCOE is estimated at 38 €/MWh, required capacity of PV single-axis tracking is 369 GW and wind power plants 75 GW. In the integrated scenario, due to flexibility provided by the SWRO plants, there is a reduced demand for battery storage and power-togas (PtG) plants. In addition, the ratio of the energy curtailed to the total energy generated is lower in all time periods from 2020 to 2050, in the integrated scenario. As a result, the annual levelised costs of the integrated scenario is found to be 2%-4% less than the non-integrated scenario.
... Due to the high demand of water and industrial gas, the electricity generation in the integrated scenario soared by 601% to cover all the demand of Iran for the year 2030. Moreover, a study for the MENA region [69] clearly concluded that the connection between countries by HVDC power lines has a positive impact on the least cost of electricity and total annual costs of the system. The LCOE for the integrated scenario in the MENA region is 37.5 €/MWh for Iran, which is highly beneficial in comparison to a fully independent energy system. ...
Conference Paper
The devastating effects of fossil fuels on the environment, limited natural sources and increasing demand for energy across the world make renewable energy (RE) sources more important than in the past. COP21 resulted in a global agreement on net zero CO2 emissions shortly after the middle of the 21st century, which will lead to a collapse of fossil fuel demand. To be more precise, whenever the costs of renewable resources decrease, the interest in using them increases. Therefore, suppliers and decision-makers have recently been motivated to invest in RE rather than fossil fuels technologies even though large untapped fossil fuel resources are available. Among RE technologies, Iran has a very high potential for solar energy, followed by wind, and complemented by hydropower, geothermal energy, biomass and waste-to-energy. The focus of the study is to define a cost optimal 100% RE system in Iran using an hourly resolution model. The optimal sets of RE technologies, least cost energy supply, mix of capacities and operation modes were calculated and the role of storage technologies was examined. Two scenarios have been evaluated in this study: a country-wide scenario and an integrated scenario. In the country-wide scenario, RE generation and energy storage technologies cover the country’s power sector electricity demand, however, in the integrated scenario, the RE generated was able to fulfil not only the electricity demand of the power sector but also the substantial demand for electricity for water desalination and synthesis of industrial gas. By adding the sector integration, the total levelized cost of electricity decreased from 45.3 €/MWh to 40.3 €/MWh. The LCOE of 40.3 €/MWh in the integrated scenario is quite cost-effective and beneficial in comparison to other low-carbon but high cost alternatives such as CCS and nuclear energy. The levelized cost of water and the levelized cost of gas are 1.5 €/m3 and 107.8 €/MWhLHV, respectively. A 100% renewable energy system for Iran is found to be a real policy option.
... The [11], [20], [22]- [24], [25]- [28], [29]. Other energy transition studies for 2050 also indicate that least cost power systems are possible for 100% RE [30]- [35]. ...
Conference Paper
A transition towards a 100% renewable energy (RE) power sector by 2050 is investigated for Europe. Simulations using an hourly resolved model define the roles of storage technologies in a least cost system configuration. The investigated technologies are batteries, pumped hydro storage, adiabatic compressed air energy storage, thermal energy storage, and power-togas technology. Modelling proceeds from 2015 to 2050 in five-year time steps, and considers current power plant capacities, their corresponding lifetimes, and current and projected electricity demand to determine an optimal mix of plants needed to achieve a 100% RE power system by 2050. This optimization is carried out with regards to the assumed costs and technological status of all technologies involved. The total power capacity required by 2050, shares of resources, and storage technologies are defined. Results indicate that the levelised cost of electricity falls from a current level of 69 €/MWhe to 51 €/MWhe in 2050 through the adoption of low cost RE power generation, improvements in efficiency, and expanded power interconnections. Additionally, flexibility of and stability in the power system are provided by increasing shares of energy storage solutions over time, in parallel with expected price decreases in these technologies. Total storage requirements include up to 3320 GWhe of batteries, 396 GWhe of pumped hydro storage, and 218,042 GWhgas of gas storage (8% for synthetic natural gas and 92% for biomethane) for the time period depending on the scenario. The cost share of levelised cost of storage in the total levelised cost of electricity increases from less than 2 €/MWh (2% of total) to 16 €/MWh (28% of total) over the same time. Outputs of power-togas begin in 2020 when renewable energy generation reaches 50% in the power system, increasing to a total of 44 TWhgas in 2050. A 100% RE system can be a more economical and efficient solution for Europe, one that is also compatible with climate change mitigation targets set out in the Paris Agreement.
... In addition, the role of hydrogen production in both systems, with different configurations, have been analysed. Three countries have been exclusively studied to assess the new assumptions in the energy system model: 1) Germany with considerable biogas potential that suits the research concept and a well-balanced availability of RE resources based on the findings of authors' former research [14], [17]; 2) Finland with moderate biogas potential, large area and low population in the Northern hemisphere, and very high energy consumption per capita is found to be a potential candidate for this assessment [14], [17]; 3) Egypt with a very low biogas resource potential compared to other two countries, but it is still one of the largest biogas resource holder in the MENA region (32%) and has an excellent solar and wind resource availability [14], [18]. Selecting three countries with different geographical conditions, resource availability, and electricity demand help to understand the impact of the new function in the energy system model better and in more detail. ...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
In this paper, the "LUT Energy System model" based on linear algorithm with an hourly resolved configuration is used to assess the role of hydrogen in 100% renewable energy (RE) based power and industrial gas sectors. The study is done for 2030 assumptions. A mix of RE technologies and energy storage options is applied to provide energy security and system flexibility. The three chosen case study countries are Germany, Finland and Egypt. In countries with sustainable biomass resources, depending on the optimised cost, the model assumes that 60 mol.% of feedstock is converted into biomethane (CH4) and the remaining 40 mol.% is CO2 produced together as biogas. Therefore, the costs of H2 to SNG conversion drops due to no extra cost for capturing the required CO2 from air. The LUT model with additional biogas-to-SNG options and new functionality is called the Enhanced model and the regular model is called the Standard model. The results reveal that in the Enhanced model, where readily available CO2 is captured from biogas, hydrogen production plays a vital role in securing a 100% RE powered system. This results in a lower cost of the energy system, in particular for Egypt (9% lower at 35 €/MWh) and Germany (3% lower at 62 €/MWh) in the Integrated scenario, where the gas demand for industrial sector is high. However, for Finland the decrease is only 1% to 54 €/MWh. Moreover, lower full load hour of electrolysers, additional installed capacity of hydrogen and higher system flexibility emphasise the benefits of hydrogen in the total energy system.
... The electricity generation for the power sector is expected to be around 440 TWh for the Maghreb region in 2050. This demand may be increased by SWRO desalination and non-energetic industrial gas demand by about 115% [7,32]. The global CO2 removal demand may be around 10 GtCO2 in 2050, which may lead to a contribution of the Maghreb region of 5-10% of this demand due to the excellent resource conditions. ...
Conference Paper
Pathways for achieving the 1.5-2 ºC target imply a massive scaling of CO2 removal technologies, in particular in the 2040s and onwards. CO2 direct air capture (DAC) is among the most promising negative emission technologies (NETs). The energy demands for low temperature, solid solution DAC are mainly heat at around 100 ºC and electricity, which lead to sustainably operated DAC systems based on low-cost renewable electricity and heat pumps for the heat supply. This analysis is carried out for the case of the Maghreb region, which enjoys abundantly available low-cost renewable energy resources. The energy transition results for the Maghreb region lead to a solar photovoltaic (PV) dominated energy supply with some wind energy contribution. DAC systems will need the same energy supply structure. The research investigates the levelised cost of CO2 DAC (LCOD) in high spatial resolution and is based on full hourly modelling for the Maghreb region. The key results are LCOD of about 55 €/tCO2 in 2050 with a further cost reduction potential of up to 50%. The area demand is considered and concluded to be negligible. Major conclusions for CO2 removal as a new energy sector are drawn.
... It is predicted that by 2030, Qatar will provide 1800 MW of energy from renewable sources [6]. The price of 54 V/MW for residential electricity in 2030 is estimated [8]. ...
Article
Hydrogen has been a promising energy carrier to meet the world's energy needs as well as reduce pollutant emissions. Although many countries have policies and programs to expand hydrogen production, the potential for hydrogen production in different regions of Qatar has not yet been evaluated. Therefore, this paper, for the first time, evaluates the possibility of an average annual cogeneration of 14 kWh of electricity and 85 kg/day of hydrogen by a home-scale solar-wind system connected to the grid in Qatar. NASA's 20-year average of meteorological data, the electricity tariff and gasoline price in 2018, along with annual real interest rate, were used as inputs to HOMER software. The techno-econo-enviro analysis was done over a one-year period hour by hour. From the results, it was found that the lowest prices of hydrogen and electricity generated, with $ 2.092/kg and $ 11.495/kWh, were related to Grid and PV-Wind-Grid scenarios, respectively. Also, results indicated that Ar-Ruways station and PV-Wind-Grid scenario were the most environmentally suitable options that resulted in a CO2 emission rate of 1,434 kg annually. To select just one station among five areas, a fuzzy method was deployed as a prioritization technique. Its results suggested that Doha Intl Airport site is the most suitable one for constructing solar-wind hybrid energy generation system.
... In addition, they indicated that the super grid decreases the storage requirements and generations capacities, resulting in the cost reductions. Many similar studies reported the similar results for many super grids such as Middle East and North Africa (MENA) super grid [4], Eurasian super grid [5], North-East Asian super grid [6]), European super grid [7], and SAARC super grid [8]. All of the above studies reported that the renewable energy based super grid is more cost effective and feasible compared with the conventional grids. ...
Article
Full-text available
One-fourth population of the world lives in South Asia. The electricity generation for this population consumes the substantial fossil fuels, resulting in the significant emissions of harmful gases in the global environment. To protect the natural environment, South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) has planned a super smart grid (SSG) for the power sharing between South Asian countries through the integration of the renewable energy resources (RERs). However, the capability of these countries to construct such a mega power grid is unclear due to the unavailability of proper strategic analysis, lack of information about RERs potential, and the lack of decision making models. To address such issues, this paper analyzes the existing power grids in the SAARC countries focusing on the formation of a mega power grid. Then, the paper identifies the existing electricity potential of these countries based on the key renewable and non-renewable resources. Then, this paper develops an integer linear programming model based on the power generation cost, CO2 emissions, and disruption risk. This study solves the proposed model through the implementation of goal programming methods in an efficient mathematical optimization software (i.e. LINGO). The results exhibited that the SAARC countries have the capability to share a sustainable SSG through the substantial integration of RERs. For instance, the model solution based on 100% renewable power (i.e. Case 5) exhibited 36% cost savings, 86% CO2 emission reduction, and 39% risk reduction compared with non-renewable power based model solution (i.e. Case 1). Finally, this study performs the cost-benefit analysis for the existing and proposed power systems of SAARC countries. The results provide the various insights to policy makers and practitioners for the strategic decision making related to the SAARC SSG. In addition, the methodology of this paper can be adopted for other SSGs infrastructures around the world.
... Similarly, the MENA region has huge potential for RE generation and could lead the world in RE power export (Aghahosseini et al., 2016). DESERTEC Foundation (2020) first proposed this project, however, for it to be practical, e400 billion will be needed to install the necessary transmission lines (Muller-Steinhagen and Trieb, 2006). ...
Article
Full-text available
With the global population set to continue growing, the demand for energy will increase. Fossil fuel resources are in decline, and their use is associated with environmental destruction. This highlights the need for more investment in energy resources that can meet the global demand without harming the environment. Clean forms of energy, such as solar, wind, and hydropower, are both successful and readily available, yet investment in them has fluctuated. The affordability, ease of availability and technological maturity of oil in some regions has contributed to the slow uptake of investment in renewable energy projects. This paper discusses the main barriers hindering investment in clean energy production, highlights crucial incentives that could speed up investment processes, and examines several necessary strategies for the transition from fossil-fuel-based energy to renewable sources.
... Several studies and reports were conducted to investigate wind energy resources in Yemen; they all confirmed that this energy type is available in various parts of the country [10,18,36,40,68]. Fortunately, most of the regions promising with wind energy are located in good locations where there are already high-voltage transmission lines, such as Al-Mokha, Aden, Abyan, Hodeidah, Lahej, and Dhamar [20]. ...
Article
Full-text available
A severe energy crisis has plagued Yemen for decades, and most of the population lack access to electricity. This has harmed the country’s economic, social, and industrial growth. Yemen generates electricity mainly from fossil fuels, despite having a high potential for renewable energy. Unfortunately, the situation has recently been compounded by the country’s continuing war, which has been ongoing since early 2015. It has impacted the country’s energy infrastructure negatively, resulting in power outages. Therefore, this paper aims to provide an updated perspective on Yemen’s current energy crisis and explain its key issues and potential solutions. Besides, it examines the potential, development, and current state of renewable energy sources, such as solar, wind, geothermal, and biomass. Based on the findings, Yemen is one of the world’s wealthiest countries in terms of sunlight and wind speed, and these two resources are abundant in all regions of the country. In addition, this paper sheds light on the solar energy revolution that has arisen since the war started due to the complete outage of the national electricity. Within a few years, solar energy in Yemen has increased its capacity by 50 times and has recently become the primary source of electricity for most Yemenis. Furthermore, the paper discusses the difficulties and challenges that face the implementation of renewable energy investment projects. Numerous recommendations for potential improvements in Yemen’s widespread use of renewable energy are also provided in this paper. All of the ideas presented in this paper are hoped to increase the efforts to grow renewable energy production in Yemen, thereby solving the issues of energy poverty and reducing environmental effects. The presented analysis can be used as a scientific reference for researchers and industrial companies looking for suitable solutions to advance Yemen’s renewable energy.
... With the exception of [15], MENA has been modeled mainly as a potential provider of solar power for Europe [13,31,32]. However, the MENA region merits investigation in its own right, not least because of its current reliance on fossil fuels, with a power plant mix comprising 68% natural gas and 23% oil [33]. The high carbon intensity of the MENA electricity generation, improving living standards in the region, concerns about pollution, and the possibility of electrification of, for instance, transportation, entail large potential benefits of decarbonizing the MENA power sector. ...
Article
Full-text available
Most studies that examine CO2-neutral, or near CO2-neutral, power systems by using energy system models investigate Europe or the United States, while similar studies for other regions are rare. In this paper, we focus on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), where weather conditions, especially for solar, differ substantially from those in Europe. We use a green-field linear capacity expansion model with over-night investment to assess the effect on the system cost of (i) limiting/expanding the amount of land available for wind and solar farms, (ii) allowing for nuclear power and (iii) disallowing for international transmission. The assessment is done under three different cost regimes for solar PV and battery storage. First, we find that the amount of available land for wind and solar farms can have a significant impact on the system cost, with a cost increase of 0–50% as a result of reduced available land. In MENA, the impact on system cost from land availability is contingent on the PV and battery cost regime, while in Europe it is not. Second, allowing for nuclear power has a minor effect in MENA, while it may decrease the system cost in Europe by up to 20%. In Europe, the effect on system cost from allowing for nuclear power is highly dependent on the PV and battery cost regime. Third, disallowing for international transmission increases the system cost by up to 25% in both Europe and MENA, and the cost increase depends on the cost regime for PV and batteries. The impacts on system cost from these three controversial and policy-relevant factors in a decarbonized power system thus play out differently, depending on (i) the region and (ii) uncertain future investment costs for solar PV and storage. We conclude that a renewable power system in MENA is likely to be less costly than one in Europe, irrespective of future uncertainties regarding investment cost for PV and batteries, and policies surrounding nuclear power, transmission, and land available for wind- and solar farms. In MENA, the system cost varies between 42 and 96 $/MWh. In Europe, the system cost varies between 51 and 102 $/MWh.
... With the exception of [15], MENA has been modeled mainly as a potential provider of solar power for Europe [13,31,32]. However, the MENA region merits investigation in its own right, not least because of its current reliance on fossil fuels, with a power plant mix comprising 68% natural gas and 23% oil [33]. The high carbon intensity of the MENA electricity generation, improving living standards in the region, concerns about pollution, and the possibility of electrification of, for instance, transportation, entail large potential benefits of decarbonizing the MENA power sector. ...
Preprint
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Most studies of near-zero-carbon power systems consider Europe and the United States. In this paper, we focus on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), where weather conditions, especially for solar, differ substantially from those in Europe. We use a green-field linear capacity expansion model with over-night investment to assess the effect on system cost of (i) limiting/expanding the amount of land available for wind and solar farms, (ii) allowing for nuclear power and (iii) disallowing for international transmission. This is done under three different cost regimes for solar PV and battery storage. We find that: - The amount of available land for wind and solar farms can have a great impact on the system cost. We found a cost increase of 0-50% as a result of reduced available land. In MENA, the impact on system cost is greatly influenced by the PV and battery cost regime, which is not the case in Europe. - Allowing for nuclear has nearly no effect in MENA, while it can decrease system costs in Europe by up to 23%. In Europe, the effect on system cost of whether nuclear power is allowed is highly dependent on the PV and battery cost regime, which is not the case in MENA. - Disallowing for international transmission increases costs by up to around 25% in both Europe and MENA. The cost increase depends on cost regime for PV and batteries. The impact on system cost off these three controversial parts of a decarbonized power system thus plays out differently, depending on (i) the region and (ii) uncertain future costs for solar PV and storage. We conclude that a renewable power system in MENA, is less costly than in Europe irrespective of the cost regime. In MENA, the system costs vary between 37 and 83 euro/MWh. In Europe, the system costs vary between 43 and 89 euro/MWh.
... In similar work conducted by Aghahosseini et al. [34] for the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA) region, it was found that the total annual cost for an integrated scenario decreased by 10.8% compared to a non-integrated scenario. The total capex decreased by 10.0% compared to the non-integrated scenario. ...
Conference Paper
Iran is the 17th most populated country in the world with several regions facing high or extremely high water stress. It is estimated that half the population live in regions with 30% of Iran’s freshwater resources. The combination of climate change, increasing national water demand and mismanagement of water resources is forecasted to worsen the situation in Iran. This has led to an increase in interest in the use of non-traditional water supplies to meet the increasing water demand. In this paper it is shown how the future water demand of Iran can be met through seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) desalination plants powered by 100% renewable energy systems, at a cost level competitive with that of current SWRO plants powered by fossil plants in Iran. The SWRO desalination capacity required to meet the 2030 water demand of Iran is estimated to be about 215 million m3/day compared to the 175,000 m3/day installed SWRO desalination capacity of the total 809,607 m3/day desalination capacity in the year 2015. The optimal hybrid renewable energy system for Iran is found to be a combination of solar photovoltaics (PV) fixed-tilted, PV single-axis tracking, Wind, Battery and Power-to-Gas (PtG) plants. The levelized cost of water (LCOW), which includes water production, electricity, water transportation and water storage costs, for regions of desalination demand in 2030, is found to lie between 0.50 €/m3 – 2 €/m3, depending on renewable resource availability and cost of water transport to demand sites. The total system required to meet the 2030 Iranian water demand is estimated to cost 1177 billion € of initial investments. Thus, our work proves that the water crisis in Iran can be averted in a lucrative and sustainable manner.
... MENA is comprised of countries that are emerging economies as well as developed, with around 7% share in global GDP (IMF, 2017). This region is amongst the largest energy producers in the world, with an increasingly high share of demand (Aghahosseini et al., 2016). The total electricity consumption was around 1360 TWh in 2015, which is estimated to rise to 3320 TWh by 2050 (IEA, 2016). ...
Article
Full-text available
Aside from reducing the energy sector’s negative impacts on the environment, renewable power generation technologies are creating new wealth and becoming important job creators for the 21st century. Employment creation over the duration of the global energy transition is an important aspect to explore, which could have policy ramifications around the world. This research focuses on the employment impact of an accelerated uptake of renewable electricity generation that sees the world derive 100% of its electricity from renewable sources by 2050, in order to meet the goals set by the Paris Agreement. An analytical job creation assessment for the global power sector from 2015 to 2050 is estimated and presented on a regional basis. It is found that the global direct jobs associated with the electricity sector increases from about 21 million in 2015 to nearly 35 million in 2050. Solar PV, batteries and wind power are the major job creating technologies during the energy transition from 2015 to 2050. This is the first global study presenting job creation projections for energy storage. The results indicate that a global energy transition will have an overall positive impact on the future stability and growth of economies around the world.
... The LCOE values obtained show that the levelised cost of electricity could decrease from 69 €/MWh in 2015 to 56 €/MWh in 2050 for the Regions scenario and to 51 €/MWh in 2050 for the Area scenario. These results are similar to other similar transition studies using the LUT Energy System Transition model, which show a range of about 50-70 €/MWh for 2030 [11], [20], [22]- [24], [25]- [28], [29]. Other energy transition studies for 2050 also indicate that least cost power systems are possible for 100% RE [30]- [35]. ...
Article
Full-text available
A transition towards a 100% renewable energy (RE) power sector by 2050 is investigated for Europe. Simulations using an hourly resolved model define the roles of storage technologies in a least cost system configuration. The investigated technologies are batteries, pumped hydro storage, adiabatic compressed air energy storage, thermal energy storage, and power-to-gas technology. Modelling proceeds from 2015 to 2050 in five-year time steps, and considers current power plant capacities, their corresponding lifetimes, and current and projected electricity demand to determine an optimal mix of plants needed to achieve a 100% RE power system by 2050. This optimization is carried out with regards to the assumed costs and technological status of all technologies involved. The total power capacity required by 2050, shares of resources, and storage technologies are defined. Results indicate that the levelised cost of electricity falls from a current level of 69 €/MWhe to 51 €/MWhe in 2050 through the adoption of low cost RE power generation, improvements in efficiency, and expanded power interconnections. Additionally, flexibility of and stability in the power system are provided by increasing shares of energy storage solutions over time, in parallel with expected price decreases in these technologies. Total storage requirements include up to 3320 GWhe of batteries, 396 GWhe of pumped hydro storage, and 218,042 GWhgas of gas storage (8% for synthetic natural gas and 92% for biomethane) for the time period depending on the scenario. The cost share of levelised cost of storage in the total levelised cost of electricity increases from less than 2 €/MWh (2% of total) to 16 €/MWh (28% of total) over the same time. Outputs of power-to-gas begin in 2020 when renewable energy generation reaches 50% in the power system, increasing to a total of 44 TWhgas in 2050. A 100% RE system can be a more economical and efficient solution for Europe, one that is also compatible with climate change mitigation targets set out in the Paris Agreement.
... PV single-axis and wind are the main sources of electricity for water desalination and industrial gas production. Also in this area the resistance against new grids could drastically increase the PV share in electricity generation (Aghahosseini et al. 2016 In an overview on the world's regions we can say that 100% RE is highly competitive because it shows the least expensive cost structure, even in matching supply and demand in all hours of a year. The PV share can be expected to be about 40% (range 14-50%), hydro and biomass is limited the more the sectors are integrated. ...
Technical Report
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This report presents the results of an International Symposium "Clean Disruption for Abundant Futures", which was organised as a futures clinique of the Neo-Carbon Energy project and Summer School of the Finland Futures Academy, as well as Helsinki Node’s Millennium Forum at Museum of Contemporary Arts Kiasma, Helsinki, June 7–8, 2016. The two-day futures clinique focused on the topics of energy, internet, clean disruption, new organisation practices and futures of communities. The objective of the event was to address possible futures and related societal transition towards the convergence of energy and internet. In the clinique, abundant futures defines the stance towards futures, as ample resources would be available in such a system. This, in turn, affects social relations and communities of the future. The clinique generated futures dialogue that consisted of expert lectures, commenting and discussion, as well as intermittent working sessions in small groups. The keynote speeches gave input for the group work, where participants probed the abundant futures in six breakout groups. The four transformational scenarios of the Neo-Carbon Energy project were used as material for the groups’ foresight work. This dialogue and elaborations on abundant futures and renewable energy are documented in this report. Four recurring themes can be identified from the group work. Perhaps the most common is the idea of so-called “post-institutional” future of tribal-like communities. Another frequent theme is the change of the concept of work through i.e. automatisation and hybridisation of work and leisure. The third theme describes immaterial values and the significance of meaningfulness. Finally, the fourth theme identified in the results addresses the possible social drawbacks of the future. Consequently, the clean disruption for abundant futures is a cornucopia with huge potential, but by no means automatically only beneficial. Critical mindset is needed both for the decision phase and implementation ways of clean disruptive technologies, practices, lifestyles, and regulation.
... The electricity generation for the power sector is expected to be around 440 TWh for the Maghreb region in 2050. This demand may be increased by SWRO desalination and non-energetic industrial gas demand by about 115% (Breyer et al. 2017a;Aghahosseini et al. 2016). The global CO 2 removal demand may be around 10 Gt CO2 in 2050, which may lead to a contribution of the Maghreb region of 5-10% of this demand due to the excellent resource conditions. ...
Article
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Pathways for achieving the 1.5–2 °C global temperature moderation target imply a massive scaling of carbon dioxide (CO2) removal technologies, in particular in the 2040s and onwards. CO2 direct air capture (DAC) is among the most promising negative emission technologies (NETs). The energy demands for low-temperature solid-sorbent DAC are mainly heat at around 100 °C and electricity, which lead to sustainably operated DAC systems based on low-cost renewable electricity and heat pumps for the heat supply. This analysis is carried out for the case of the Maghreb region, which enjoys abundantly available low-cost renewable energy resources. The energy transition results for the Maghreb region lead to a solar photovoltaic (PV)-dominated energy supply with some wind energy contribution. DAC systems will need the same energy supply structure. The research investigates the levelised cost of CO2 DAC (LCOD) in high spatial resolution and is based on full hourly modelling for the Maghreb region. The key results are LCOD of about 55 €/tCO2 in 2050 with a further cost reduction potential of up to 50%. The area demand is considered and concluded to be negligible. Major conclusions for CO2 removal as a new energy sector are drawn. Key options for a global climate change mitigation strategy are first an energy transition towards renewable energy and second NETs for achieving the targets of the Paris Agreement.
Conference Paper
With growing demand for LNG and transportation fuels such as diesel, and concerns about climate change and emission cost, this paper introduces new value chain design for LNG and transportation fuels and respective business cases for Iran, taking into account hybrid PV-Wind power plants. The value chains are based on renewable electricity (RE) converted by power-togas (PtG) or power-to-liquids (PtL) facilities into SNG (which is finally liquefied into LNG) or synthetic liquid fuels, mainly diesel, respectively. The RE-LNG or RE-diesel can be shipped to everywhere in the world. The calculations for the hybrid PV-Wind power plants, electrolysis, methanation (H2tSNG) and hydrogen-to-liquids (H2tL) are done based on both annual full load hours (FLh) and hourly analysis. Results show that the proposed RE-LNG or RE-diesel value chains are competitive for crude oil prices within a minimum price range of about 118-187 USD/barrel (24 – 31 USD/MBtu of LNG production cost) and 102-168 USD/barrel (0.68 – 0.86 €/l of diesel production cost), depending on the chosen specific value chain and assumptions for cost of capital, available oxygen sales and CO2 emission costs. RE-LNG or RE-diesel could become competitive to conventional fuels from an economic perspective, while removing environmental concerns. The RE-PtX value chain needs to be located at the best complementing solar and wind sites in the world combined with a de-risking strategy. This could be an opportunity for Iran to use its abundant source of solar and wind and the available conventional fossil fuel transportation infrastructure to export carbon neutral hydrocarbons around the world where the environmental limitations on conventional hydrocarbons is getting tighter and tighter.
Technical Report
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Technical Report "Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy – Power Sector", published at the Global Renewable Energy Solutions Showcase event (GRESS), a side event of the COP23, Bonn, November 8, 2017 A global transition to 100% renewable electricity is feasible at every hour throughout the year and more cost effective than the existing system, which is largely based on fossil fuels and nuclear energy. Energy transition is no longer a question of technical feasibility or economic viability, but of political will. Existing renewable energy potential and technologies, including storage can generate sufficient and secure power to cover the entire global electricity demand by 2050 . The world population is expected to grow from 7.3 to 9.7 billion. The global electricity demand for the power sector is set to increase from 24,310 TWh in 2015 to around 48,800 TWh by 2050. Total levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) on a global average for 100% renewable electricity in 2050 is 52 €/MWh (including curtailment, storage and some grid costs), compared to 70 €/MWh in 2015. Solar PV and battery storage drive most of the 100% renewable electricity supply due to a significant decline in costs during the transition. Due to rapidly falling costs, solar PV and battery storage increasingly drive most of the electricity system, with solar PV reaching some 69%, wind energy 18%, hydropower 8% and bioenergy 2% of the total electricity mix in 2050 globally. Wind energy increases to 32% by 2030. Beyond 2030 solar PV becomes more competitive. Solar PV supply share increases from 37% in 2030 to about 69% in 2050. Batteries are the key supporting technology for solar PV. Storage output covers 31% of the total demand in 2050, 95% of which is covered by batteries alone. Battery storage provides mainly short-term (diurnal) storage, and renewable energy based gas provides seasonal storage. 100% renewables bring GHG emissions in the electricity sector down to zero, drastically reduce total losses in power generation and create 36 million jobs by 2050. Global greenhouse gas emissions significantly reduce from about 11 GtCO2eq in 2015 to zero emissions by 2050 or earlier, as the total LCOE of the power system declines. The global energy transition to a 100% renewable electricity system creates 36 million jobs by 2050 in comparison to 19 million jobs in the 2015 electricity system. Operation and maintenance jobs increase from 20% of the total direct energy jobs in 2015 to 48% of the total jobs in 2050 that implies more stable employment chances and economic growth globally. The total losses in a 100% renewable electricity system are around 26% of the total electricity demand, compared to the current system in which about 58% of the primary energy input is lost.
Presentation
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Presentation on the occasion of the Sustainable Energy Forum and Exhibition (SEF-2016), Kiev, October 11, 2016.
Article
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A review of more than 60 studies (plus more than 65 studies on P2G) on power and energy models based on simulation and optimization was done. Based on these, for power systems with up to 95% renewables, the electricity storage size is found to be below 1.5% of the annual demand (in energy terms). While for 100% renewables energy systems (power, heat, mobility), it can remain below 6% of the annual energy demand. Combination of sectors and diverting the electricity to another sector can play a large role in reducing the storage size. From the potential alternatives to satisfy this demand, pumped hydro storage (PHS) global potential is not enough and new technologies with a higher energy density are needed. Hydrogen, with more than 250 times the energy density of PHS is a potential option to satisfy the storage need. However, changes needed in infrastructure to deal with high hydrogen content and the suitability of salt caverns for its storage can pose limitations for this technology. Power to Gas (P2G) arises as possible alternative overcoming both the facilities and the energy density issues. The global storage requirement would represent only 2% of the global annual natural gas production or 10% of the gas storage facilities (in energy equivalent). The more options considered to deal with intermittent sources, the lower the storage requirement will be. Therefore, future studies aiming to quantify storage needs should focus on the entire energy system including technology vectors (e.g. Power to Heat, Liquid, Gas, Chemicals) to avoid overestimating the amount of storage needed.
Article
The power sector is faced with strict requirements in reducing harmful emissions and substantially increasing the level of sustainability. Renewable energy (RE) in general and solar photovoltaic (PV) in particular can offer societally beneficial solutions. The LUT energy system transition model is used to simulate a cost-optimised transition pathway towards 100% RE in the power sector by 2050. The model is based on hourly resolution for an entire year, the world structured in 145 regions, high spatial resolution of the input RE resource data, and transition steps of 5-year periods. The global average solar PV electricity generation contribution is found to be about 69% in 2050, the highest ever reported. Detailed energy transition results are presented for representative countries in the world, namely, Poland, Britain and Ireland, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Ethiopia, and Indonesia. The global average energy system levelised cost of electricity gradually declines from 70 €/MWh in 2015 to 52 €/MWh in 2050 throughout the transition period, while deep decarbonisation of more than 95% around 2040, referenced to 2015, would be possible. The targets of the Paris Agreement can be well achieved in the power sector, while increasing societal welfare, given strong policy leadership.
Article
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A transition towards a 100% renewable energy (RE) power sector by 2050 is investigated for Ukraine. Simulations using an hourly resolved model define the roles of storage technologies in a least cost system configuration. Results indicate that the levelised cost of electricity will fall from a current level of 82 €/MWhe to 60 €/MWhe in 2050 through the adoption of low cost RE power generation and improvements in efficiency. If the capacity in 2050 would have been invested for the cost assumptions of 2050, the cost would be 54 €/MWhe, which can be expected for the time beyond 2050. In addition, flexibility of and stability in the power system are provided by increasing shares of energy storage solutions over time, in parallel with expected price decreases in these technologies. Total storage requirements include 0-139 GWhe of batteries, 9 GWhe of pumped hydro storage, and 0-18,840 GWhgas of gas storage for the time period. Outputs of power-to-gas begin in 2035 when renewable energy production reaches a share of 86% in the power system, increasing to a total of 13 TWhgas in 2050. A 100% RE system can be a more economical and efficient solution for Ukraine, one that is also compatible with climate change mitigation targets set out at COP21. Achieving a sustainable energy system can aid in achieving other political, economic and social goals for Ukraine, but this will require overcoming several barriers through proper planning and supportive policies.
Article
The discussion about the benefits of a global energy interconnection is gaining momentum in recent years. The techno-economic benefits of this integration are broadly discussed for the major regions around the world. While there has not been substantial research on the techno-economic benefits, however, some initial results of the global energy interconnection are presented in this paper. Benefits achieved on the global scale are lower than the interconnections within the national and sub-national level. The world is divided into 9 major regions and the major regions comprise of 23 regions. When all the considered regions are interconnected globally, the overall estimated levelized cost of electricity is 52.5 €/MWh for year 2030 assumptions, which is 4% lower than an isolated global energy system. Further, the required installed capacities decrease by 4% for the fully interconnected system. Nevertheless, a more holistic view on the entire energy system will progress research on global energy interconnection as, synthetic power-to-X fuels and chemicals emerge as an important feature of the future sustainable global energy system with strong interactions of the power system not only to the supply, in energy fuel and chemicals trading globally, but also to the demand side. Global energy interconnection will be part of the solution to achieve the targets of the Paris Agreement and more research will help to better understand its impact and additional value.
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Motivation: Jordanien weist ein starkes Bevölkerungswachstum auf, zählt zu den wasserärmsten Ländern der Welt und leidet unter Ressourcenmangel. Zu lösendes Problem: Die Energieversorgung und Trinkwasserbereitstellung aus Meerwasserentsalzung soll möglichst wirtschaftlich und umweltfreundlich gewährleistet werden. Lösungsansatz: Die Maßnahmen der jordanischen Regierung sowie zwei Alternativszenarien werden für das Jahr 2030 simuliert und auf Kosten und Umweltauswirkungen untersucht. Weiterhin kommt es zu Vorschlägen die eine Minimierung des Primärenergieeinsatzes bewirken können. Ergebnisse: Das BAU-Szenario verursacht die geringsten jährlichen Zusatzkosten. Die Konzepte mit einem hohen Anteil an erneuerbaren Energien reduzieren die ökologischen Folgen. Fazit: Gerade der Ausbau der Energieerzeugung aus Solarkraft ist zukünftig empfehlenswert.
Conference Paper
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A transition towards a 100% renewable energy (RE) power sector by 2050 is investigated for Ukraine. Simulations using an hourly resolved model define the roles of storage technologies in a least cost system configuration. Modelling of the power system proceeds from 2015 to 2050 in five-year time steps, and considers current power plant capacities as well as their corresponding lifetimes, and current and projected electricity demand in order to determine an optimal mix of plants needed to achieve a 100% RE power system by 2050. Results indicate that the levelised cost of electricity will fall from a current level of 94 €/MWhe to 54 €/MWhe in 2050 through the adoption of low cost RE power generation and improvements in efficiency. In addition, flexibility of and stability in the power system are provided by increasing shares of energy storage solutions over time, in parallel with expected price decreases in these technologies. Total storage requirements include 0-139 GWhe of batteries, 9 GWhe of pumped hydro storage, and 0-18,840 GWhgas of gas storage for the time period. Outputs of power-togas begin in 2035 when renewable energy production reaches a share of 86% in the power system, increasing to a total of 13 TWhgas in 2050. A 100% RE system can be a more economical and efficient solution for Ukraine, one that is also compatible with climate change mitigation targets set out at COP21. Achieving a sustainable energy system can aid in achieving other political, economic and social goals for Ukraine, but this will require overcoming several barriers through proper planning and supportive policies. Several solutions are identified which can enable the transition towards the long-term sustainability of the Ukraine energy system.
Article
This study applies a scenario-based analysis to assess the sustainability of energy transitions of the North African economies under the Paris Agreement, by evaluating the specific pace of the transition grounded in the reality of the actual regional constraints. The ‘Long-range Energy Alternative Planning’ modelling platform is used to simulate the impact of energy and climate policies set in the context of the global low-carbon transition on North Africa’s current energy system and economies. Two scenarios are developed: the reference and the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution scenarios. A cost–benefit analysis is performed to ensure this transition can be cost-effective and to suggest recommendations for an efficient and effective transition to a low carbon economy. Results show that decarbonization in North Africa can be achieved at the regional scale, at negative costs, but significant upfront capital investments and intensive energy policy reforms are needed. Key policy insights • In order for North African countries to meet their Paris Agreement commitments, further steps need to be taken by the international community to accelerate low-carbon technology transfer and the provision of financial resources to them. • Policies for energy efficiency and renewable energy development should include the establishment of a regional market to develop and harmonize policies and legal frameworks in North Africa. • Regional energy market integration and network interconnections would allow economies of scale, cost savings and the development of regional expertise. • Policies for energy efficiency should also include reforms to phase out or reduce fossil fuel subsidies, mandatory energy audits for the buildings sector, and minimum energy performance standards for appliances, such as air conditioners and refrigerators.
Article
The devastating effects of fossil fuels on the environment, limited natural sources and increasing demand for energy across the world make renewable energy sources more important than in the past. The 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference resulted in a global agreement on net zero CO2 emissions shortly after the middle of the twenty-first century, which will lead to a collapse of fossil fuel demand. The focus of the study is to define a cost optimal 100% renewable energy system in Iran by 2030 using an hourly resolution model. The optimal sets of renewable energy technologies, least-cost energy supply, mix of capacities and operation modes were calculated and the role of storage technologies was examined. Two scenarios have been evaluated in this study: a countrywide scenario and an integrated scenario. In the countrywide scenario, renewable energy generation and energy storage technologies cover the country’s power sector electricity demand. In the integrated scenario, the renewable energy generated was able to fulfil both the electricity demand of the power sector and the substantial electricity demand for water desalination and synthesis of industrial gas. By adding sector integration, the total levelized cost of electricity decreased from 45.3 to 40.3 €/MWh. The levelized cost of electricity of 40.3 €/MWh in the integrated scenario is quite cost-effective and beneficial in comparison with other low-carbon but high-cost alternatives such as carbon capture and storage and nuclear energy. A 100% renewable energy system for Iran is found to be a real policy option.
Article
Large-scale Lithium-ion Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) are gradually playing a very relevant role within electric networks in Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA). The high energy density of Li-ion based batteries in combination with a remarkable round-trip efficiency and constant decrease in the levelized cost of storage have led to the recent boom of the technology. However, many of the potential applications of large-scale battery systems are not economically viable at this point in time. As a result, several BESS projects are being pushed by the industry towards specific niches which are based on revenue streams that can be rather complex than straightforward. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of how large-scale Li-ion BESS are currently being implemented in the EMEA region, giving an answer to the following questions: what are the main use-cases of large-scale Li-ion batteries that are being implemented? What are the key factors that are enabling the deployment of BESS projects in the present markets? How can current tendencies be extrapolated to the future outlook of Li-ion BESS implementations? The large-scale energy storage market is evolving at a very fast pace, hence this review paper intends to contribute to a better understanding of the current status of Li-ion battery systems focusing on the economic feasibility that is driving the realization of Li-ion BESS projects in the EMEA region.
Article
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The state of Bihar in India has approximately 75 million people with no access to electricity. The government of India has pursued a policy of rural electrification through the provision of centralised coal-fired power which has been unable to resolve the low levels of electrification. Coal supply woes in India have led Indian companies to pursue new coal mines in Australia's Galilee Basin. The costs of these mining ventures will be high due to the mining infrastructure required and long transport distances to rural India. A high level analysis of mining, transport and power station investment to meet rural demand in Bihar shows that the absolute investment requirement using coal, especially coal sourced from Australia, as an expensive option. Pursuing electrification through village level, renewable energy micro-systems provides more flexibility. Pollution costs associated with coal-fired generation, employment benefits associated with many village implementations and a rural load unsupported by industry load, show a benefit associated with decentralised, renewable energy electrification.
Research
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Lazard’s Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis (“LCOE”) addresses the following topics:  Comparative “levelized cost of energy” for various technologies on a $/MWh basis, including sensitivities, as relevant, for U.S. federal tax subsidies, fuel costs, geography and cost of capital, among other factors  Comparison of the implied cost of carbon abatement given resource planning decisions for various generation technologies  Illustration of how the cost of utility-scale and rooftop solar-produced energy compares against generation rates in large metropolitan areas of the United States  Illustration of utility-scale and rooftop solar versus peaking generation technologies globally  Illustration of how the costs of utility-scale and rooftop solar and wind vary across the United States, based on average available resources  Forecast of rooftop solar levelized cost of energy through 2017  Comparison of assumed capital costs on a $/kW basis for various generation technologies  Decomposition of the levelized cost of energy for various generation technologies by capital cost, fixed operations and maintenance expense, variable operations and maintenance expense, and fuel cost, as relevant  Considerations regarding the usage characteristics and applicability of various generation technologies, taking into account factors such as location requirements/constraints, dispatch capability, land and water requirements and other contingencies  Summary assumptions for the various generation technologies examined  Summary of Lazard’s approach to comparing the levelized cost of energy for various conventional and Alternative Energy generation technologies Other factors would also have a potentially significant effect on the results contained herein, but have not been examined in the scope of this current analysis. These additional factors, among others, could include: capacity value vs. energy value; stranded costs related to distributed generation or otherwise; network upgrade, transmission or congestion costs; integration costs; and costs of complying with various environmental regulations (e.g., carbon emissions offsets, emissions control systems). The analysis also does not address potential social and environmental externalities, including, for example, the social costs and rate consequences for those who cannot afford distribution generation solutions, as well as the long-term residual and societal consequences of various conventional generation technologies that are difficult to measure (e.g., nuclear waste disposal, environmental impacts, etc.) While prior versions of this study have presented the LCOE inclusive of the U.S. Federal Investment Tax Credit and Production Tax Credit, Versions 6.0 – 8.0 present the LCOE on an unsubsidized basis, except as noted on the page titled “Levelized Cost of Energy—Sensitivity to U.S. Federal Tax Subsidies” http://www.lazard.com/PDF/Levelized%20Cost%20of%20Energy%20-%20Version%208.0.pdf
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To properly evaluate the prospects for commercially competitive battery electric vehicles (BEV) one must have accurate information on current and predicted cost of battery packs. The literature reveals that costs are coming down, but with large uncertainties on past, current and future costs of the dominating Li-ion technology. This paper presents an original systematic review, analysing over 80 different estimates reported 2007-2014 to systematically trace the costs of Li-ion battery packs for BEV manufacturers. We show that industry-wide cost estimates declined by approximately 14% annually between 2007 and 2014, from above US$1,000 per kWh to around US$410 per kWh, and that the cost of battery packs used by market-leading BEV manufacturers are even lower, at US$300 per kWh, and has declined by 8% annually. Learning rate, the cost reduction following a cumulative doubling of production, is found to be between 6 and 9%, in line with earlier studies on vehicle battery technology. We reveal that the costs of Li-ion battery packs continue to decline and that the costs among market leaders are much lower than previously reported. This has significant implications for the assumptions used when modelling future energy and transport systems and permits an optimistic outlook for BEVs contributing to low-carbon transport.
Article
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Renewable energy-based off-grid or decentralised electricity supply has traditionally considered a single technology-based limited level of supply to meet the basic needs, without considering reliable energy provision to rural consumers. The purpose of this paper is to propose the best hybrid technology combination for electricity generation from a mix of renewable energy resources to satisfy the electrical needs in a reliable manner of an off-grid remote village, Palari in the state of Chhattisgarh, India. Four renewable resources, namely, small-scale hydropower, solar photovoltaic systems, wind turbines and bio-diesel generators are considered. The paper estimates the residential, institutional, commercial, agricultural and small-scale industrial demand in the pre-HOMER analysis. Using HOMER, the paper identifies the optimal off-grid option and compares this with conventional grid extension. The solution obtained shows that a hybrid combination of renewable energy generators at an off-grid location can be a cost-effective alternative to grid extension and it is sustainable, techno-economically viable and environmentally sound. The paper also presents a post-HOMER analysis and discusses issues that are likely to affect/influence the realisation of the optimal solution.
Article
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Renewable energy in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, particular solar energy, can be connected to Europe to provide the Northern neighbouring countries with electricity. To achieve this long term objective, it is necessary to understand the local domestic consumption of electricity in the MENA region as the main consumer of energy. The understanding of current and future trends could help to provide a complete picture of the energy situation in MENA region and the feasibility of exporting energy to Europe. For this reason, this paper investigates the domestic energy use and occupants’ energy behaviour in Libya. The aim of this study is to evaluate the effect of domestic energy consumption and householders’ awareness, attitudes and behaviour on the overall energy consumption in Libya and how this could affect the peak demand, capacity, future trends and government energy budget. The paper also investigates the sustainability aspect of consumer products and the awareness and attitude of consumers towards consumption and demand. A comprehensive survey has been conducted to evaluate several aspects of domestic energy demand and characteristics in Libya. The findings have indicated that there is a significant increase in energy demands in the household sector in Libya and it is significant to have a clear strategy to reduce carbon emission and energy use by improving occupants’ behaviour as well as utilising other sustainable measures. Minor adjustment in householders’ energy consumption behaviour and the technology used to generate energy could provide significant financial savings and contribute significantly to the reduction in carbon emission and energy consumption. This will allow significant benefit to the local economy and the energy sector in Libya but at the same time could provide sustainable energy resources for Europe on the long term.
Article
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The chronic water shortage in the Middle East North Africa (MENA) region is a perplexing issue, undoubtedly because various operational sectors, multi-institutions and stakeholders are inextricably interconnected. In the light of climate variability and the unprecedented population growth rate, the per capita water resources and biocapacity will continue plummeting, and the demand-gap will seriously expand. Existing water quantification agreements have been deemed inefficient to solve the problem of naturally diminishing water resources and thus require immediate re-assembling. Most scholarly endeavors, including key international organizations, NGOs, and “Think Tank” policy briefs have limitedly addressed water shortage in contexts of regional politics, mass media, and, importantly, from social psychology perspectives. Therefore, a thorough analysis and interdisciplinary approach is required to find a feasible and suitable framework of solutions and from a multi-perspective podium. A synthesis of cross-sectorial bottlenecks that are crucial to water management is presented, and a suite of practical recommendations are introduced to water authorities and governments. This study argues that in the shadow of the region’s political instability, the clash of ideologies and its repercussions, and issues of national security and sovereignty, regional cooperation on water issues remain prognostications. In this essence, governments of MENA countries are urged to develop measures to substantially increase the water supply through innovative approaches. Such measures include enhancing the capacities of water harvesting, maximizing the storage capacities of the built dams, and deploying groundwater recharge techniques. Furthermore, seawater and brackish water desalination through clean energy technologies is a contemporary solution with socio-economic and multiple benefits. Multi-billion water projects might not be suitable approach in the absence of external funding and the aforementioned hurdles. Further research is required to address the social economics, and environmental aspects of desalination and the socio-economic feasibility of privatizing drinking water utilities and price polarization.
Article
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The Energy [R]evolution 2010 scenario is an update of the Energy [R]evolution scenarios published in 2007 and 2008. It takes up recent trends in global energy demand and production and analyses to which extent this affects chances for achieving climate protection targets. The main target is to reduce global CO2 emissions to 3.7 Gt/a in 2050, thus limiting global average temperature increase to below 2°C and preventing dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. A ten-region energy system model is used for simulating global energy supply strategies. A review of sector and region specific energy efficiency measures resulted in the specification of a global energy demand scenario incorporating strong energy efficiency measures. The corresponding supply scenario has been developed in an iterative process in close cooperation with stakeholders and regional counterparts from academia, NGOs and the renewable energy industry.
Article
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Der Bericht stellt die Neuauflage der Weltenergie-Szenarien dar, die das Institut für Technische Thermodynamik des Deutschen Zentrums für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR) zusammen mit über 30 weiteren Experten im Auftrag von Greenpeace International und dem European Renewable Energy Council (EREC) erarbeitet haben. Die Weltenergie-Szenarien „Energy [R]evolution 2010“ zeigen, wie die globalen CO2-Emissionen von heute 30 Milliarden Tonnen pro Jahr bis zur Mitte des Jahrhunderts auf rund zehn Milliarden Tonnen pro Jahr gesenkt werden können. Diese drastische Reduktion der Treibhausgase ist notwendig, um den Anstieg der globalen Durchschnittstemperatur auf zwei Grad Celsius gegenüber dem vorindustriellen Niveau zu beschränken. Gegenüber der letzten Studie geht ein zweites Advanced Energy [R]evolution Szenario noch einen Schritt weiter: Sollte diese CO2-Minderung aufgrund bisher nicht berücksichtigter langfristiger Klimaeffekte die Klimaerwärmung nicht aufhalten, so können zusätzliche Reduktionspotenziale den CO2-Ausstoß schon 10 Jahre früher und bis 2050 sogar bis auf 3,8 Milliarden Tonnen pro Jahr senken. Die Studie, veröffentlicht von Greenpeace International und EREC, beinhaltet u. a. eine umfangreiche Darstellung der Szenarienannahmen sowie der berechneten Kennwerte des Energiesystems je Weltregion.
Article
Power systems for South and Central America based on 100% renewable energy (RE) in the year 2030 were calculated for the first time using an hourly resolved energy model. The region was subdivided into 15 sub-regions. Four different scenarios were considered: three according to different high voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission grid development levels (region, country, area-wide) and one integrated scenario that considers water desalination and industrial gas demand supplied by synthetic natural gas via power-togas (PtG). RE is not only able to cover 1813 TWh of estimated electricity demand of the area in 2030 but also able to generate the electricity needed to fulfil 3.9 billion m 3 of water desalination and 640 TWh LHV of synthetic natural gas demand. Existing hydro dams can be used as virtual batteries for solar and wind electricity storage, diminishing the role of storage technologies. The results for total levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) are decreased from 62 €/MWh for a highly decentralized to 56 €/MWh for a highly centralized grid scenario (currency value of the year 2015). For the integrated scenario, the levelized cost of gas (LCOG) and the leve-lized cost of water (LCOW) are 95 €/MWh LHV and 0.91 €/m 3 , respectively. A reduction of 8% in total cost and 5% in electricity generation was achieved when integrating desalination and power-to-gas into the system.
Thesis
As electricity generation based on volatile renewable resources is subject to fluctuations, data with high temporal and spatial resolution on their availability is indispensable for integrating large shares of renewable capacities into energy infrastructures. The scope of the present doctoral thesis is to enhance the existing energy modelling environment REMix in terms of (i.) extending the geographic coverage of the potential assessment tool REMix-EnDaT from a European to a global scale, (ii.) adding a new plant siting optimization module REMix-PlaSMo, capable of assessing siting effects of renewable power plants on the portfolio output and (iii.) adding a new alternating current power transmission model between 30 European countries and CSP electricity imports from power plants located in North Africa and the Middle East via high voltage direct current links into the module REMix-OptiMo. With respect to the global potential assessment tool, a thorough investigation is carried out creating an hourly global inventory of the theoretical potentials of the major renewable resources solar irradiance, wind speed and river discharge at a spatial resolution of 0.45°x0.45°. A detailed global land use analysis determines eligible sites for the installation of renewable power plants. Detailed power plant models for PV, CSP, wind and hydro power allow for the assessment of power output, cost per kWh and respective full load hours taking into account the theoretical potentials, technological as well as economic data. The so-obtined tool REMix-EnDaT can be used as follows: First, as an assessment tool for arbitrary geographic locations, countries or world regions, deriving either site-specific or aggregated installable capacities, cost as well as full load hour potentials. Second, as a tool providing input data such as installable capacities and hourly renewable electricity generation for further assessments using the modules REMix-PlasMo and OptiMo. The plant siting tool REMix-PlaSMo yields results as to where the volatile power technologies photovoltaics and wind are to be located within a country in order to gain distinct effects on their aggregated power output. Three different modes are implemented: (a.) Optimized plant siting in order to obtain the cheapest generation cost, (b.) a minimization of the photovoltaic and wind portfolio output variance and (c.) a minimization of the residual load variance. The third fundamental addition to the REMix model is the amendment of the module REMix-OptiMo with a new power transmission model based on the DC load flow approximation. Moreover, electricity imports originating from concentrating solar power plants located in North Africa and the Middle East are now feasible. All of the new capabilities and extensions of REMix are employed in three case studies: In case study 1, using the module REMix-EnDaT, a global potential assessment is carried out for 10 OECD world regions, deriving installable capacities, cost and full load hours for PV, CSP, wind and hydro power. According to the latter, photovoltaics will represent the cheapest technology in 2050, an average of 1634 full load hours could lead to an electricity generation potential of some 5500 PWh. Although CSP also taps solar irradiance, restrictions in terms of suitable sites for erecting power plants are more severe. For that reason, the maximum potential amounts to some 1500 PWh. However, thermal energy storage can be used, which, according to this assessment, could lead to 5400 hours of full load operation. Onshore wind power could tap a potential of 717 PWh by 2050 with an average of 2200 full load hours while offshore, wind power plants could achieve a total power generation of 224 PWh with an average of 3000 full load hours. The electricity generation potential of hydro power exceeds 3 PWh, 4600 full load hours of operation are reached on average. In case study 2, using the module REMix-PlaSMo, an assessment for Morocco is carried out as to determine limits of volatile power generation in portfolios approaching full supply based on renewable power. The volatile generation technologies are strategically sited at specific locations to take advantage of available resources conditions. It could be shown that the cost optimal share of volatile power generation without considering storage or transmission grid extensions is one third. Moreover, the average power generation cost using a portfolio consisting of PV, CSP, wind and hydro power can be stabilized at about 10 €ct/kWh by the year 2050. In case study 3, using the module REMix-OptiMo, a validation of a TRANS-CSP scenario based upon high shares of renewable power generation is carried out. The optimization is conducted on an hourly basis using a least cost approach, thereby investigating if and how demand is met during each hour of the investigated year. It could be shown, that the assumed load can safely be met in all countries for each hour using the scenario's power plant portfolio. Furthermore, it was proven that dispatchable renewable power generation, in particular CSP imports to Europe, have a system stabilizing effect. Using the suggested concept, the utilization of the transfer capacities between countries would decrease until 2050.
Conference Paper
In recent years, PV technology has experienced a rapid cost reduction. This trend is expected to continue, which in many countries drives interest in utility-scale PV power plants. The main disadvantage of such plants is that they operate only when the sun is shining. The installation of PV modules together with energy storage and/or fossil fuel backup is a way to solve that issue, but consequently increases the costs. In the last few years, however, lithium-ion batteries as well have shown a promising price reduction. This paper studies the competitiveness of a hybrid power plant that combines a PV system, lithium-ion battery and gas turbine (GT) compared to conventional fossil-fuel power plants (coal and natural gas-fired) with focus on the battery cost. To fulfil the demand an auxiliary GT is used in the hybrid PV plant, but its annual generation is limited to 20% of the total output. The metric for the comparison of the different technologies is the levelized cost of energy (LCOE). The installation of the plants is showcased in Morocco, a country with excellent solar resources. Future market scenarios for 2020 and 2030 are considered. A sensitivity analysis is performed to identify the key parameters that influence LCOE.
Conference Paper
In this work, a 100% renewable energy (RE)-based energy system for the year 2030 for Southeast Asia and the Pacific Rim 1 , and Eurasia was prepared and evaluated and various impacts of adiabatic compressed air energy storage (A-CAES) were researched on an hourly resolution for one year. To overcome the intermittency of RE sources and guarantee regular supply of electricity, energy sources are complemented by five energy storage options: batteries, pumped hydro storage (PHS), thermal energy storage (TES), (A-CAES) and power-togas (PtG). In a region-wide scenario the energy system integration is within a sub-region of the individual large areas of Southeast Asia and Eurasia. In this scenario simulation were performed with and without A-CAES integration. For Southeast Asia and Eurasia, the integration of A-CAES has an impact on the share of a particular storage used and this depends on the seasonal variation in RE generation, the supply share of wind energy and demand in the individual areas. For the region-wide scenario for Southeast Asia (region with low seasonal variation and lower supply share of wind energy) the share of A-CAES output was 1.9% in comparison to Eurasia (region with high seasonal variation and a high supply share of wind energy) which had 28.6%. The other impact which was observed was the distribution of the storage technologies after A-CAES integration, since battery output and PtG output were decreased by 72.9% and 21.6% (Eurasia) and 5.5% and 1.6% (Southeast Asia), respectively. However, a large scale grid integration reduces the demand for A-CAES storage drastically and partly even to zero due to substitution by grids, which has been only observed for A-CAES, but not for batteries and PtG. The most valuable application for A-CAES seems to be in rather decentralized or nationwide energy system designs and as a well-adapted storage for the typical generation profiles of wind energy.
Article
This study demonstrates how seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) plants, necessary to meet increasing future global water demand, can be powered solely through renewable energy. Hybrid PV–wind–battery and power-to-gas (PtG) power plants allow for optimal utilisation of the installed desalination capacity, resulting in water production costs competitive with that of existing fossil fuel powered SWRO plants. In this paper, we provide a global estimate of the water production cost for the 2030 desalination demand with renewable electricity generation costs for 2030 for an optimised local system configuration based on an hourly temporal and 0.45° × 0.45° spatial resolution. The SWRO desalination capacity required to meet the 2030 global water demand is estimated to about 2374 million m3/day. The levelised cost of water (LCOW), which includes water production, electricity, water transportation and water storage costs, for regions of desalination demand in 2030, is found to lie between 0.59 €/m3–2.81 €/m3, depending on renewable resource availability and cost of water transport to demand sites. The global system required to meet the 2030 global water demand is estimated to cost 9790 billion € of initial investments. It is possible to overcome the water supply limitations in a sustainable and financially competitive way.
Article
We investigate the prospects of three zero-emission scenarios for achieving the target of limiting global mean temperature rise to 2 °C or below, and compare them with the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario involving no climate policy intervention. The “2100 zero” emissions scenario requires zero emissions after 2100 until 2150. The “350 ppm zero” emissions scenario entails zero emissions in the latter half of this century, which can be achieved by the cumulative emissions constraints of the Wigley–Richels–Edmonds (WRE) 350 from 2010 to 2150. Finally, the “net zero” scenario requires zero cumulative emissions from 2010 to 2150, allowing positive emissions over the coming several decades that would be balanced-out by negative emissions in the latter half of the century. The role of biomass energy carbon capture and storage (BECCS) with forested land is also assessed with these scenarios. The results indicate that the 2 °C target can be achieved in the “net zero” scenario, while the “350 ppm zero” scenario would result in a temperature rise of 2.4 °C. The “2100 zero” scenario achieved a 4.1 °C increase, while the BAU reached about 5.2 °C. BECCS contributed to achieving zero-emission requirements while providing a limited contribution to energy supply. The findings indicate substantial future challenges for the management of forested land.
Article
In order to define a cost optimal 100% renewable energy system, an hourly resolved model has been created based on linear optimization of energy system parameters under given constrains. The model is comprised of five scenarios for 100% renewable energy power systems in North-East Asia with different high voltage direct current transmission grid development levels, including industrial gas demand and additional energy security. Renewables can supply enough energy to cover the estimated electricity and gas demands of the area in the year 2030 and deliver more than 2000 TW hth of heat on a cost competitive level of 84 €/MW hel for electricity. Further, this can be accomplished for a synthetic natural gas price at the 2013 Japanese liquefied natural gas import price level and at no additional generation costs for the available heat. The total area system cost could reach 69.4 €/MW hel, if only the electricity sector is taken into account. In this system about 20% of the energy is exchanged between the 13 regions, reflecting a rather decentralized character which is supplied 27% by stored energy. The major storage technologies are batteries for daily storage and power-to-gas for seasonal storage. Prosumers are likely to play a significant role due to favourable economics. A highly resilient energy system with very high energy security standards would increase the electricity cost by 23% to 85.6 €/MW hel. The results clearly show that a 100% renewable energy based system is feasible and lower in cost than nuclear energy and fossil carbon capture and storage alternatives.
Book
Presenting boundary conditions for the economic and environmental utilization of geothermal technology, this is the first book to provide basic knowledge on the topic in such detail. The editor is the coordinator of the European Geothermic Research Initiative, while the authors are experts for the various geological situations in Europe with high temperature reservoirs in shallow and deep horizons. With its perspectives for R&D in geothermic technology concluding each chapter, this ready reference will be of great value to scientists and decision-makers in research and politics, as well as those giving courses in petroleum engineering, for example.
Presentation
Presentation at the LUT Doctorial School Conference in Lappeenranta at December 10, 2015.
Article
A human body may be able to adapt to extremes of dry-bulb temperature (commonly referred to as simply temperature) through perspiration and associated evaporative cooling provided that the wet-bulb temperature (a combined measure of temperature and humidity or degree of "mugginess") remains below a threshold of 35 °C. (ref.). This threshold defines a limit of survivability for a fit human under well-ventilated outdoor conditions and is lower for most people. We project using an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate model simulations that extremes of wet-bulb temperature in the region around the Arabian Gulf are likely to approach and exceed this critical threshold under the business-as-usual scenario of future greenhouse gas concentrations. Our results expose a specific regional hotspot where climate change, in the absence of significant mitigation, is likely to severely impact human habitability in the future.
Conference Paper
Increasing ecological problems provoked by human activities, including the fossil fuel based energy sector, emerge the development of a renewable energy (RE) based system as the way to stop pollution and global warming but also to reduce total energy system cost. Small population density and availability of various types of RE resources in Eurasian regions including solar, wind, hydro, biomass and geothermal energy resources enables the very promising project of building a Super Grid connecting different Eurasian regions' energy resources to reach synergy effects and make a 100% RE supply possible. For every sub-region it is defined a cost-optimal distributed and centralized mix of energy technologies and storage options, optimal capacities and hourly generation. Charge and discharge profiles of storages are computed for regions interconnected by high-voltage direct current (HVDC) power lines. System cost and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for each sub-region are computed. The results show that a 100% RE-based system is lower in cost than nuclear and fossil carbon capture and storage (CCS) alternatives.
Data
Presentation on the occasion of the GÜNDER Workshop held as part of the 45th IEA PVPS Task 1 Meeting in Istanbul on October 27, 2015.
Research
Poster on the occasion of the 2nd International Conference on Desalination using Membrane Technology in Singapore on July 26 - 29, 2015.
Conference Paper
The excellent solar resources of Israel make it possible to reach the target of 100% RE, independent of fossil fuel supply in a rather close future. For now the development of large PV capacities is restrained by battery storage costs: before reaching a cost level of 200 €/kWh, batteries are not competitive and installations of thermal storages and CSP are cost optimal. The role of CSP remains unclear; however, the high competitiveness of PV-battery may limit CSP to a minor role. PV self-consumption plays a significant role in the energy transformation in Israel.
Conference Paper
Grid-parity is a very important milestone for further photovoltaic (PV) diffusion. An updated grid-parity model is presented, which is based on levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) coupled with the experience curve approach. Relevant assumptions for the model are given and its key driving forces are discussed in detail. Results of the analysis are shown for 215 countries/ islands and a total of 645 market segments all over the world. High PV industry growth rates have enabled a fast reduction of LCOE. Depletion of fossil fuel resources and climate change mitigation forces societies to internalize these effects and pave the way for sustainable energy technologies. First grid-parity events have already occurred. The 2010s are characterized by ongoing grid-parity events throughout the most regions in the world, reaching an addressable market of up to 96% of total global electricity market till 2030. In consequence, new political frameworks for maximizing social benefits will be required. In parallel, PV industry tackle its next milestone, fuel-parity. In conclusion, PV is on the pathway to become a highly competitive energy technology.
Conference Paper
The installed capacity of photovoltaic (PV) is rising steadily. Most PV is installed in highly electrified countries as on-grid systems. Further, there are reams of small off-grid systems in rural areas of developing countries. Due to this, reliable installation rates for PV are available only for a small number of countries. For the end of 2013 EPIA reports 138,858 MWp of installed PV capacity, using data for 45 countries, whereas 2,098 MWp are not allocatable to specific countries. IEA-PVPS gives a number of 136,200 MWp installed by providing detailed data for 32 countries, 24 of which coming from official sources in IEA PVPS member countries. This paper gives an overview of installed PV for all countries in the world, being predicated based on the examination of publically accessible data. Furthermore, an analysis of the development of cumulative PV capacities in recent years is given. Resulting from this evaluation, PV installations are localized in 191 countries, representing 137,500 MWp.
Conference Paper
The benefits of hybridising two solar technologies are not clear at first sight. Combining the low cost electricity generation by photovoltaics (PV) with the cheap thermal energy storage option available to concentrating solar thermal power (CSP) plants is what makes this package interesting. In this work we simulate hybrid power plants over the course of one year using historical hourly weather data on the input side and synthetic load data on a national level on the output side. In addition to examining pure PV-CSP plants we also consider adding wind power and direct battery storage to the mix. The economics of such combinations are determined and compared. The results show that PV-CSP hybrids are a viable option to provide an output profile following national electricity demand. We also show that when allowing a wide range of power generation and storage technologies, at any given location many different combinations lead to levelised electricity costs not too far above the minimal possible costs for any renewable power source.
Conference Paper
The electricity demand in the Middle East North African (MENA) region is increasing quickly and is highly dependent on diminishing fossil fuel resources. The economics of photovoltaic (PV) power plants are very promising and have already started their full competitiveness to fossil fuel fired power plants. The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of fossil fuel fired power plants can be reduced by hybridization with PV power plants. Even lower costs are achieved by including both PV and wind power plants. In the long-term, expanding a hybrid PV-Wind-Fossil power system by the renewable power methane storage technology might create a 100% renewable based power system. This long-term option might be of high relevance for the post fossil fuel age in the MENA region.
Conference Paper
The usage of renewable energy is gaining importance due to national and international targets for reduction of CO2 emissions and consumption of fossil fuels and respective renewable energy deployment goals. Due to the volatile nature of renewable energy and regional potentials for generation in remote areas, there is a need for a better integration of generation and load centers in a common transmission infrastructure. This can be done by establishing a meshed HVDC overlay grid for bulk electricity transmission over long distances. Therefore, this paper describes the outlook for renewable energy deployment by 2050 in the North African region, as well as the potential to export renewable energy to Europe. It analyses the existing AC transmission grid infrastructure and explains why a meshed pan-European-North African HVDC overlay grid will solve the transmission requirements for the target year 2050.
Technical Report
In large parts of the world, there is a massive need for electrification. Especially in remote areas the valuable access to electricity is often missing. Mini-Grids that enable the operation of machines are particularly suitable to supply communities in a sustainable way with electricity and to promote local progress. In particular PV is suited for the supply of island grids as a decentralized source of energy. In many countries photovoltaic is already an economic alternative to diesel supply and can provide economically up to 90% of energy consumption in an island grid. Profitability, a large market potential and a well political and financial environment for stand-alone PV systems are found especially in East Africa and some South American and Asian countries. The reasons for the failure of Mini-Grids are bad political conditions, lack of credit availability and sometimes inadequate project development. In particular, the funding represents often one of the biggest obstacles for the successful implementation of a project. A sustainable operation is possible if the political and financial environment is met complemented by a comprehensive and provident planning.. Cultural aspects, a cost covering and affordable tariff system and ensuring technical reliability are important elements of successful system integration. The interests of users, operators, financiers and governmental institutions should complement each other positively. Need for action exists yet mainly at the political level in order to create better conditions. In particular, the benefits of renewable energies are not sufficiently known by many decision makers. In addition potential financiers want to be convinced by positive examples. There are by now some promising business models that can be easily reproduced in a country with clear conditions and good financing options. In this way, in a relatively short period of time access to sustainable electrical energy could be enabled for many people in developing countries.
Conference Paper
People in rural regions of various developing countries suffer on having no access to modern forms of energy, in particular electricity. This work is focussed on regions inhabited by these people and presents insights on the short financial amortization periods of solar home systems and photovoltaic pico systems. With amortization periods of about 6 to 18 months, pico systems represent a capitalized value of about 10 to 45 times the original capital expenditures at the point of full financial amortization. For a significantly higher electricity demand hybrid PV mini-grids might be an excellent solution for rural electrification. However the economics are still a challenge. Based on excellent economics of small PV applications the total global residential small PV market potential is estimated to about 8 GWp and 80 bn€. The total PV-based off-grid market potential for the not yet electrified people might be estimated to about 70 GW and roughly 750 bn€.
Article
Grid-parity is a very important milestone for further photovoltaic (PV) diffusion. A grid-parity model is presented, which is based on levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) coupled with the experience curve approach. Relevant assumptions for the model are given, and its key driving forces are discussed in detail. Results of the analysis are shown for more than 150 countries and a total of 305 market segments all over the world, representing 98.0% of world population and 99.7% of global gross domestic product. High PV industry growth rates enable a fast reduction of LCOE. Depletion of fossil fuel resources and climate change mitigation forces societies to internalize these effects and pave the way for sustainable energy technologies. First grid-parity events occur right now. The 2010s are characterized by ongoing grid-parity events throughout the most regions in the world, reaching an addressable market of about 75–90% of total global electricity market. In consequence, new political frameworks for maximizing social benefits will be required. In parallel, PV industry tackle its next milestone, fuel-parity. In conclusion, PV is on the pathway to become a highly competitive energy technology.
Article
An estimation of the Enhanced Geothermal System's theoretical technical potential for the Iberian Peninsula is presented in this work. As a first step, the temperature at different depths (from 3500 m to 9500 m, in 1000 m steps) has been estimated from existing heat flow, temperature at 1000 m and temperature at 2000 m depth data. From the obtained temperature-at-depth data, an evaluation of the available heat stored for each 1 km thick layer between 3 and 10 km depth, under some limiting hypotheses, has been made. Results are presented as the net electrical power that could be installed, considering that the available thermal energy stored is extracted during a 30 year project life. The results are presented globally for the Iberian Peninsula and separately for Portugal (continental Portugal), Spain (continental Spain plus the Balearic Islands) and for each one of the administrative regions included in the study. Nearly 6% of the surface of the Iberian Peninsula, at a depth of 3500 m has a temperature higher than 150 °C. This surface increases to more than 50% at 5500 m depth, and more than 90% at 7500 m depth. The Enhanced Geothermal System's theoretical technical potential in the Iberian Peninsula, up to a 10 km depth (3 km–10 km) and for temperatures above 150 °C, expressed as potential installed electrical power, is as high as 700 GWe, which is more than 5 times today's total electricity capacity installed in the Iberian Peninsula (renewable, conventional thermal and nuclear).
Article
In this work an estimation and comparison of the technical and sustainable potentials of EGS (Enhanced Geothermal Systems) in Europe is presented. The temperatures at depths of (3500–9500) m were firstly calculated from the available data of temperatures at surface, 1000 m and 2000 m depth, and heat flow. Next the available thermal energy stored in each 1000 m thick layer along the considered depths was evaluated. At this point, the EGS technical potential was estimated and results are presented as installable net electrical power by considering a 30 year time project. A method to estimate the EGS sustainable potential is proposed and the results are compared with the technical potential. Results are presented for the European territory as a whole and individually for each one of the European countries. Estimations for Turkey and the Caucasus region are also presented. Under the hypotheses considered in our study, the technical potential of EGS in Europe for temperatures above 150 °C and depths of between 3 km and 10 km was estimated to be more than 6500 GWe. The part of this technical potential that can be considered as ‘sustainable’ or ‘renewable’ potential was estimated to be 35 GWe.
Article
Discussions about the origin of energy in a post fossil fuel world are quickly dominated by a general exchange of mostly fruitless arguments about the future contribution of nuclear energy. In this paper we discuss the status of nuclear energy today and analyze its potential evolution during the next 10-20 years. The facts are that nuclear energy contributes only about 14% of the world's electric energy mix today, and as electric energy contributes itself only about 16% to the end energy use, its contribution is essentially negligible. Still, nuclear energy is plagued already with a long list of unsolved problems. Among the less known problems one finds the difficulties that nuclear plants can not provide power according to needs, but have to be operated at full power also during times of low demand. As a result, regions with large contributions from nuclear power need some backup hydropower storage systems. Without sufficient storage capacity, cheap electric energy is suggested during low demand times, which obviously results in wasteful applications. The better known problems, without solutions since at least 40 years, are the final safe storage of the accumulated highly radioactive nuclear waste, that uranium itself is a very limited and non renewable energy resource and that enormous amounts of human resources, urgently needed to find a still unknown path towards a low energy future, are blocked by useless research on fusion energy. Thus, nuclear energy is not a solution to our energy worries but part of the problem.