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Technologiefrühaufklärung im Verteidigungsbereich
Abstract
Technologiefrühaufklärung im Verteidigungsbereich ist für eine zukunftsfähige und vorsorgende staatliche Planung dauerhaft erforderlich und erweist sich auch in der Praxis als nützlich. Dabei hat sich der Ansatz bewährt, in einem Vorausschauteam Sach-, Prozess- und Methodenkompetenz zu vereinen. Ferner dienen die Beschränkungen auf die rein naturwissenschaftlich-technische Perspektive und auf ein lineares Innovationsmodell der Praxistauglichkeit dieses Ansatzes.
Der Artikel beschreibt die grundsätzlichen Randbedingungen, Eckpunkte und Besonderheiten von Technologiefrühaufklärung im Verteidigungsbereich. Sodann werden die Einsichten und methodischen Herangehensweisen, wie sie im Fraunhofer INT in fast 40 Jahren entwickelt wurden, ausgeführt. Dabei wird auch auf grundsätzliche Schwierigkeiten in Verbindung mit Prognosen eingegangen.
Beispielhaft werden schließlich das „Disruptive Technology Assessment
Game“ der NATO und die „Wehrtechnische Vorausschau“ des INT erläutert.
... Historically speaking, TTA is part of future research in general, which has its roots in the military sector of post-WW2 USA. Back then, same as today, the reason for doing future research was to be prepared for future trends and especially future technologies (Grüne, 2013). An example can be found in the industry, because product developers and manufacturers need to know where to invest their future resources and how to plan new facilities or what new equipment to buy. ...
... Applied to technologies, this can then be described as "technological forecasting" or "technology monitoring". An important distinction is the one between "scanning" (which describes the search for new trends or technologies) and "monitoring" (which describes the monitoring of already found trends or technologies to stay up to date) (Grüne, 2013). ...
... The vast majority of studies that deal with quantitative TTA can be found in the bibliometric field. Often, they complement qualitative studies of different technologies (Grüne, 2013). Reasons for studying technologies, or scientific topics in general, range from a historical perspective (taking into account past developments) to a glance at possible future developments, for example via extrapolation of the past. ...
The present review gives a short introduction to the background of TTA and its methods in the context of bibliometrics, with a focus on the literature from the past 15 years (ie 2005–2019) but also including some important older publications. It deals with quantitative TTA (where bibliometrics and patentometrics are employed) and qualitative TTA (which uses eg expert interviews, historical reviews or questionnaires) and then finishes with a discussion of the methods and a conclusion.
Over the last 40 years, the verification of compliance with disarmament treaties for Weapons of Mass Destruction has steadily evolved using several technological solutions. Today’s technological progress promises a variety of possible future and emerging technologies that may contribute to even better verification techniques. However, the latter might originate from technology areas far away from those usually monitored by the verification community. Scientifically-based futures research offers several validated approaches and methodologies that can provide orientation in this complex technology landscape and help to carve out the most probable technological future developments. We suggest to include a futures-research approach in the verification debate, complementing the expert community’s findings and improving the awareness of technology-based opportunities and threats. Four different methodological approaches are described, which require specialized futurists to be exercised. The classical approach to technology foresight systematically studies appropriate scientific literature, looking for “known” and “unknown unknowns” and considering the interdependencies of the “technology complex”. Bibliometrics can, although inherently retrospective, be used to characterise and forecast research topics and scientific networks. Modern text-mining tools can be used to extract unexpected information from the internet (“web mining”), potentially uncovering “unknown unknowns”. Solution assessment by serious gaming can help to structure multi-perspective discussions.
Ob und inwiefern die erzeugten militärischen Fähigkeiten tatsächlich die doktrinären Ziele durchsetzen können, ist in Friedenszeiten unbekannt. Erst der tatsächliche Konflikt schafft eine Umgebung, in der die Effektivität militärischer Fähigkeiten unter Beweis gestellt werden muss. Wendet man die evolutionäre Theorie (Hannan und Freeman 1984; Burgelman 1991) auf militärische Organisationen an, so bevölkern diese eine Selektionsumgebung, innerhalb derer sie miteinander in Wettbewerb stehen. In diesem Wettbewerb setzen sie ihre militärischen Fähigkeiten ein, um den eigenen gegenüber dem gegnerischen Willen durchzusetzen und somit ihren Auftrag zu erfüllen (Clausewitz 1994). Entsprechend lässt sich ein militärischer Konflikt als Selektionsereignis interpretieren, dessen Ausgang objektiv darüber informiert, ob das Militär seine Aufträge erfüllt hat.
A metallic solid (Al-14-at. pct.-Mn) with long-range orientational order, but with icosahedral point group symmetry, which is inconsistent with lattice translations, has been observed. Its diffraction spots are as sharp as those of crystals but cannot be indexed to any Bravais lattice. The solid is metastable and forms from the melt by a first-order transition.
During the 1960s, the French engineer Jean Bertin developed a mode of high-speed transport with government support. It would be known as the Aérotrain. The logo on the front of the train—an "A" suspended above a stylized track—signaled that it moved on a cushion of air. As such, it expressed the application of advanced technology much desired by France during the 1960s (fig. 1). Here, I build on the work of such historians as Robert Gilpin, Gabrielle Hecht, and Michael Bess, who have stressed the role of technology in the reshaping of French national identity after World War II. Hecht in particular emphasizes the "technopolicies" of Gaullist France: technical systems imbued with political virtues. To her analysis, I will add a specific spatial dimension.
The Aérotrain, although borrowing the "virtuous" technology of the airplane, never got beyond the experimental phase. Still, it can be said to have embodied an ideal of modern mobility then supported by French elites—an earthbound version of the "high-speed dream" that the Concorde symbolized in the air. Mobility itself—defined by Swiss sociologist Vincent Kaufmann as capital that can be acquired and managed —is a concept now enriching transport history. I will use it here as a resource for analyzing the competition between the ultimately abandoned Aérotrain and the ultimately successful Turbotrain à Grande Vitesse (TGV), as well as the broader question of the social consequences of high-speed transport.
After sketching the development of the Aérotrain, I will examine it in three different contexts: regional transport planning; its economic, political, and social aspects; and the relationship of Paris to its airports. The essay concludes with a few thoughts on the larger debate about the history of high-speed ground transportation.
Jean Bertin (1917–75) was trained at the E´cole Polytechnique before and during World War II, a period of national trauma that, in the view of Marc Bloch, threatened both moral and material defeat. After completing a degree in aeronautical engineering at the E´cole Nationale Supérieure de l'Aéronautique at its wartime location in Toulouse, he joined the Société Nationale d'E´tudes et de Construction de Moteurs d'Avion, where he worked on the development of reactor engines. In 1955, he and a few colleagues formed Bertin et Cie, a company built on the transfer of aeronautical technology to other industries. Through 1957, they worked out of a barn owned by Gabriel Voisin, the well-known designer and engineer of planes and automobiles.
The enterprise was financially successful, its net income rising from 4 to 50 million francs between 1960 and 1968 thanks to research contracts acquired in aerospace and nuclear engineering. Its engineers and technicians—over 500 by the mid-1960s—were organized in flexible, cross-disciplinary teams configured for specific projects. Not the least of these was the application of air-cushion technology to transport; in 1962, it took out a patent on the Terraplane, a hovercraft that challenged the British lead in this area.
The Aérotrain adopted the hovercraft's air-cushion technology to a fixed-track system. Compressors created the ground effect—the air cushion—and a propeller powered by an airplane engine provided horizontal thrust (fig. 2). Designed to carry eighty seat-belted passengers, the Aérotrain was in fact more like a plane than a train—a Caravelle without wings, as one of its engineers called it. With its streamlined propellers, aluminum "fuselage," and eventual use of aircraft reactors, it was embedded in the aerial-transport paradigm.
The French railway system was under assault during the 1960s. If, by 1967, the Société Nationale des Chemins de Fer (SNCF), the public company formed in 1937 to oversee the country's rail transport, had...
The diffusion of ideas is often closely connected to the creation and
diffusion of knowledge and to the technological evolution of society. Because
of this, knowledge creation, exchange and its subsequent transformation into
innovations for improved welfare and economic growth is briefly described from
a historical point of view. Next, three approaches are discussed for modeling
the diffusion of ideas in the areas of science and technology, through (i)
deterministic, (ii) stochastic, and (iii) statistical approaches. These are
illustrated through their corresponding population dynamics and epidemic models
relative to the spreading of ideas, knowledge and innovations. The
deterministic dynamical models are considered to be appropriate for analyzing
the evolution of large and small societal, scientific and technological systems
when the influence of fluctuations is insignificant. Stochastic models are
appropriate when the system of interest is small but when the fluctuations
become significant for its evolution. Finally statistical approaches and models
based on the laws and distributions of Lotka, Bradford, Yule, Zipf-Mandelbrot,
and others, provide much useful information for the analysis of the evolution
of systems in which development is closely connected to the process of idea
diffusion.
We have studied the magnetoresistance of (001)Fe/(001)Cr superlattices prepared by molecular-beam epitaxy. A huge magnetoresistance is found in superlattices with thin Cr layers: For example, with tCr=9 Å, at T=4.2 K, the resistivity is lowered by almost a factor of 2 in a magnetic field of 2 T. We ascribe this giant magnetoresistance to spin-dependent transmission of the conduction electrons between Fe layers through Cr layers.
The specific support action “SMART” has been a very interesting project which has
attempted to identify current hot spots and future trends in materials research areas
over the next 5 to 15 years. The project has involved bibliometric analysis,
interviewing experts from both within and outside Europe, analysing foresight studies
and the organisation of three thematic workshops. These workshops were in the
areas of "Materials Powering Europe", "Materials for a Safe Europe" and "Materials
for a Better Life". After introductory presentations by experts in the field, the
workshops' participants produced research road maps based upon the method of
guided brainstorming directed by an expert moderator.
The conclusions of SMART outlined in this report support the topics that have
already been chosen for the first call within the materials area of the “Nanosciences,
Nanotechnologies, Materials and new Production Technologies” thematic area of
Seventh Framework Programme or “FP7”. They have also been useful as input for
developing future topics and strategies for European Commission-supported
materials science research over the rest of the Seventh Framework Programme.
The project also underlines the importance of funding materials research for
European Industry, from emerging high-tech nanostructured materials and bio- and
nature-inspired materials, through industries such as automotive (2 million direct, and
10 million indirect jobs), aerospace (450,000 direct, and 1.5 million indirect jobs),
chemicals and pharmaceuticals (1.9 million jobs), to sectors such as textiles, which is
currently employing a total of 2 million people in Europe but which is undergoing a
deep transformation by moving to high value-added products because of competition
from low-cost continents such as Asia.
Herausgegeben von Thomas Kretschmer. -- Dieses Buch dokumentiert die wesentlichen Ergebnisse des Aufgabengebiets Technologiemonitoring am Fraunhofer-Institut für Naturwissenschaftlich-Technische Trendanalysen (INT) seit Mitte der 1990er Jahre. Nach einer knappen Darstellung der Vorgehensweise zur Strukturierung des Monitoringprozesses am INT wird zunächst ein Überblick der zu beobachtenden technologischen Einzelfelder gegeben. Den Hauptteil des Buches bilden über 150 Einzelbeiträge über neue Technologien, die zwischen 1996 und 2009 von Mitarbeitern des INT erarbeitet wurden.
Das Text Mining beschreibt Methoden zur Gewinnung von neuen Erkenntnissen aus in digitaler Form gespeicherten Texten. Im Einzelnen geht es um Prozesse der Zusammenstellung, Organisation und Analyse großer Dokumentensammlungen mit dem Ziel einer bedarfsgerechten Extrahierung von Informationen und der Entdeckung bisher unbekannter Beziehungen zwischen Texten.
Dieser Beitrag gibt einen kurzen Überblick über den Stand der Technik und Entwicklungsmöglichkeiten
Futuring beinhaltet die Ermittlung wahrscheinlicher, möglicher (auch unwahrscheinlicher) und wünschbarer Zukünfte und deren Gestaltungsoptionen. So kann es in einer Zeit zunehmender Dynamik und Komplexität fundierte Orientierungshilfen bieten und Handlungsoptionen aufzeigen. Der Buchbeitrag "Futuring - Unternehmen auf das Unbekannte vorbereiten" führt in Grundprinzipien, Methodenklassen und ausgewählte Methoden angewandter Zukunftsforschung ein, also in das systematische und zielgerichtete Erschließen zukünftiger Entwicklungsmöglichkeiten in Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft.
Technologie-Roadmapping liefert das Handwerkszeug, um Zukunftsstrategien für Technologieunternehmen zu entwerfen, deren technologische Position im Zeitablauf auszubauen, Marktchancen frühzeitig aufzuspüren und Ressourcen zielorientiert einzusetzen. Leistungsfähige und erprobte Kernwerkzeuge wie das softwaregestützte, das szenariogestützte explorative und das TRIZ-basierte Technologie-Roadmapping helfen Fach- und Führungskräften bei einem erfolgsorientierten Vorgehen.
Die nunmehr dritte Auflage enthält als zentrale Neuerung eine aktuelle Übersicht über Software-Werkzeuge zur Unterstützung des Technologie-Roadmapping. Mit den zunehmend komplexeren Anwendungen steigen die Anforderungen an das Technologie-Roadmapping besonders dann, wenn es im Tagesgeschäft verankert und nicht ausschließlich als Projekt in einer Workshopsequenz betrieben werden soll. Zur Erstellung, Visualisierung, Pflege und Aktualisierung der Technologie-Roadmaps sowie zu deren Fortschreibung, Auswertung und Weiterverarbeitung bietet sich eine Unterstützung durch Software-Werkzeuge an. Sie können das Technologie-Roadmapping in vielfältiger Weise erleichtern.
Metallic, oxygen-deficient compounds in the Ba—La—Cu—O system, with the composition BaxLa5-xCu5O5 (3-y)have been prepared in polycrystalline form. Samples with x = 1 and 0.75, y >0, annealed below 900 °C under reducing conditions, consist of three phases, one of them a perovskite-like mixed-valent copper compound. Upon cooling, the samples show a linear decrease in resistivity, then an approximately logarithmic increase, interpreted as a beginning of localization. Finally an abrupt decrease by up to three orders of magnitude occurs, reminiscent of the onset of percolative superconductivity. The highest onset temperature is observed in the 30 K range. It is markedly reduced by high current densities. Thus, it results partially from the percolative nature, bute possibly also from 2D superconducting fluctuations of double perovskite layers of one of the phases present.
An overdue theory of how machines and tools evolve downplays human creativity, argues Jon Agar.
Eine intensive Auseinandersetzung mit dem Thema Zukunftsforschung erscheint vor dem Hintergrund immer komplexer werdender
Ansprüche an Entscheider in Wirtschaft und Staat sowie wegen des wachsenden Legitimationsbedarfs dort getroffener Entscheidungen
dringend erforderlich. Der wachsende Bedarf an Entscheidungshilfen in Wirtschaft und Staat macht transparente und klar definierte
Instrumente und Methoden der Zukunftsforschung notwendig. Zukunftsforschung, wie sie im Rahmen dieses Artikels verstanden
wird, bedient sich eines Werkzeugkoffers an Prospektionsmethoden. Auf eine historische Reflexion der Zukunftsforschung wird
hier bewusst verzichtet, sie kann anderenorts nachgelesen werden (z. B. Steinmüller 2000).
Metallic, oxygen-deficient compounds in the Ba–La–Cu–O system, with the composition Ba
x
La5–x
Cu5O5(3–y) have been prepared in polycrystalline form. Samples withx=1 and 0.75,y>0, annealed below 900C under reducing conditions, consist of three phases, one of them a perovskite-like mixed-valent copper compound. Upon cooling, the samples show a linear decrease in resistivity, then an approximately logarithmic increase, interpreted as a beginning of localization. Finally an abrupt decrease by up to three orders of magnitude occurs, reminiscent of the onset of percolative superconductivity. The highest onset temperature is observed in the 30 K range. It is markedly reduced by high current densities. Thus, it results partially from the percolative nature, bute possibly also from 2D superconducting fluctuations of double perovskite layers of one of the phases present.
Analyzes how successful firms fail when confronted with technological and market changes, prescribing a list of rules for firms to follow as a solution. Precisely because of their adherence to good management principles, innovative, well-managed firms fail at the emergence of disruptive technologies - that is, innovations that disrupt the existing dominant technologies in the market. Unfortunately, it usually does not make sense to invest in disruptive technologies until after they have taken over the market. Thus, instead of exercising what are typically good managerial decisions, at the introduction of technical or market change it is very often the case that managers must make counterintuitive decisions not to listen to customers, to invest in lower-performance products that produce lower margins, and to pursue small markets. From analysis of the disk drive industry, a set of rules is devised - the principles of disruptive innovation - for managers to measure when traditional good management principles should be followed or rejected. According to the principles of disruptive innovation, a manager should plan to fail early, often, and inexpensively, developing disruptive technologies in small organizations operating within a niche market and with a relevant customer base. A case study in the electric-powered vehicles market illustrates how a manager can overcome the challenges of disruptive technologies using these principles of disruptive innovation. The mechanical excavator industry in the mid-twentieth century is also described, as an example in which most companies failed because they were unwilling to forego cable excavator technology for hydraulics machines. While there is no "right answer" or formula to use when reacting to unpredictable technological change, managers will be able to adapt as long as they realize that "good" managerial practices are only situationally appropriate. Though disruptive technologies are inherently high-risk, the more a firm invests in them, the more it learns about the emerging market and the changing needs of consumers, so that incremental advances may lead to industry-changing leaps. (CJC)
Technologie-Roadmapping liefert das Handwerkszeug, um Zukunftsstrategien für
Technologieunternehmen zu entwerfen, deren technologische Position im Zeitablauf
auszubauen, Marktchancen frühzeitig aufzuspüren und Ressourcen zielorientiert
einzusetzen. Leistungsfähige und erprobte Kernwerkzeuge wie das softwaregestützte,
das szenariogestützte explorative und das TRIZ-basierte Technologie-Roadmapping
helfen Fach- und Führungskräften bei einem erfolgsorientierten Vorgehen. Die nunmehr
dritte Auflage enthält als zentrale Neuerung eine aktuelle Übersicht über Software-
Werkzeuge zur Unterstützung des Technologie-Roadmapping. Mit den zunehmend
komplexeren Anwendungen steigen die Anforderungen an das Technologie-
Roadmapping besonders dann, wenn es im Tagesgeschäft verankert und nicht
ausschließlich als Projekt in einer Workshopsequenz betrieben werden soll. Software-
Werkzeuge erleichtern die Erstellung, Visualisierung, Pflege und Aktualisierung der
Technologie-Roadmaps sowie deren Fortschreibung, Auswertung und Weiterverarbeitung.
Dieses Buch dokumentiert wesentliche Ergebnisse des Aufgabengebiets Technologiemonitoring am Fraunhofer-Institut für Naturwissenschaftlich-Technische Trendanalysen (INT) seit Mitte der 1990er Jahre. Nach einer knappen Darstellung der Vorgehensweise zur Strukturierung des Monitoringprozesses am INT wird zunächst ein Überblick der zu beobachtenden technologischen Themenfelder gegeben. Den Hauptteil des Buches bilden über 150 Einzelbeiträge über neue Technologien, die zwischen 1996 und 2009 von Mitarbeitern des INT erarbeitet wurden.
We describe monocrystalline graphitic films, which are a few atoms thick but are nonetheless stable under ambient conditions,
metallic, and of remarkably high quality. The films are found to be a two-dimensional semimetal with a tiny overlap between
valence and conductance bands, and they exhibit a strong ambipolar electric field effect such that electrons and holes in
concentrations up to 1013 per square centimeter and with room-temperature mobilities of ∼10,000 square centimeters per volt-second can be induced by
applying gate voltage.
In the field of symbolic logic at least, fundamental discoveries seem to follow patterns, suggesting that future discoveries may in some sense be predictable.
The Nature of Technology: What It Is and How It Evolves
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wissenschaftlicher Themen und Technologien in grundlagen-und
anwendungsorientierte Forschung mithilfe bibliometrischer Methoden.
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RTO-SAS-DTOG: Disruptive Technology Assessment Game
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Disruptive Technology Assessment Game - Evolution and Validation
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