Context
Although postmenopausal hormone replacement therapy (HRT) is widely
used in the United States, new evidence about its benefits and harms requires
reconsideration of its use for the primary prevention of chronic conditions.Objective
To assess the benefits and harms of HRT for the primary prevention of
cardiovascular disease, thromboembolism, osteoporosis, cancer, dementia, and
cholecystitis by reviewing the literature, conducting meta-analyses, and calculating
outcome rates.Data Sources
All relevant English-language studies were identified in MEDLINE (1966-2001),
HealthSTAR (1975-2001), Cochrane Library databases, and reference lists of
key articles. Recent results of the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) and the
Heart and Estrogen/progestin Replacement Study (HERS) are included for reported
outcomes.Study Selection and Data Extraction
We used all published studies of HRT if they contained a comparison
group of HRT nonusers and reported data relating to HRT use and clinical outcomes
of interest. Studies were excluded if the population was selected according
to prior events or presence of conditions associated with higher risks for
targeted outcomes.Data Synthesis
Meta-analyses of observational studies indicated summary relative risks
(RRs) for coronary heart disease (CHD) incidence and mortality that were significantly
reduced among current HRT users only, although risk for incidence was not
reduced when only studies that controlled for socioeconomic status were included.
The WHI reported increased CHD events (hazard ratio [HR], 1.29; 95% confidence
interval [CI], 1.02-1.63). Stroke incidence but not mortality was significantly
increased among HRT users in the meta-analysis and the WHI. The meta-analysis
indicated that risk was significantly elevated for thromboembolic stroke (RR,
1.20; 95% CI, 1.01-1.40) but not subarachnoid or intracerebral stroke. Risk
of venous thromboembolism among current HRT users was increased overall (RR,
2.14; 95% CI, 1.64-2.81) and was highest during the first year of use (RR,
3.49; 95% CI, 2.33-5.59) according to a meta-analysis of 12 studies. Protection
against osteoporotic fractures is supported by a meta-analysis of 22 estrogen
trials, cohort studies, results of the WHI, and trials with bone density outcomes.
Current estrogen users have an increased risk of breast cancer that increases
with duration of use. Endometrial cancer incidence, but not mortality, is
increased with unopposed estrogen use but not with estrogen with progestin.
A meta-analysis of 18 observational studies showed a 20% reduction in colon
cancer incidence among women who had ever used HRT (RR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.74-0.86),
a finding supported by the WHI. Women symptomatic from menopause had improvement
in certain aspects of cognition. Current studies of estrogen and dementia
are not definitive. In a cohort study, current HRT users had an age-adjusted
RR for cholecystitis of 1.8 (95% CI, 1.6-2.0), increasing to 2.5 (95% CI,
2.0-2.9) after 5 years of use.Conclusions
Benefits of HRT include prevention of osteoporotic fractures and colorectal
cancer, while prevention of dementia is uncertain. Harms include CHD, stroke,
thromboembolic events, breast cancer with 5 or more years of use, and cholecystitis.
Approximately 38% of postmenopausal women in the United States in 1995
used hormone replacement therapy (HRT), estrogen with or without progestin,
to treat symptoms of menopause and prevent chronic conditions such as cardiovascular
disease and osteoporosis.1 Although treatment
of symptoms of menopause, such as hot flashes and urogenital atrophy, among
others, is a common indication for short-term use, potential preventive effects
of HRT on long-term health outcomes have become an increasingly important
consideration.
In 1996, the second US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) determined
that there was insufficient evidence to recommend for or against HRT for all
women but thought that individual decisions should be based on patient risk
factors, an understanding of the probable benefits and harms, and personal
preferences.2 Many studies have been published
since these recommendations were released, including the first report from
the Women's Health Initiative (WHI),3 a large
randomized primary prevention trial, and the Heart and Estrogen/progestin
Replacement Study (HERS),4 a secondary prevention
trial reporting multiple outcomes.4- 6
This review was initiated to aid the current USPSTF in making new recommendations
that will be released this fall. The focus of the USPSTF is to develop recommendations
on screening, counseling, and chemoprophylaxis for asymptomatic populations.
We conducted systematic searches of the literature on postmenopausal
HRT use and its effectiveness for primary prevention of chronic conditions
and its effects on harmful outcomes. Treatment of symptoms of menopause and
use of HRT for treatment of a preexisting condition are outside the scope
of the USPSTF recommendation, and this literature was not reviewed. We focused
on primary outcomes such as myocardial infarction (MI) rather than intermediate
outcomes such as lipid levels. To provide an overview of benefits and harms,
we conducted several meta-analyses and used these results, as well as those
from selected published articles, to calculate numbers of events prevented
or caused by HRT in a hypothetical population of postmenopausal women.