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How backup plans can harm goal pursuit: The unexpected downside of being prepared for failure
Abstract
When pursuing a goal, making a backup plan has many benefits, including reducing the psychological discomfort associated with uncertainty. However, we suggest that making a backup plan can also have negative effects. Specifically, we propose that the mere act of thinking through a backup plan can reduce performance on your primary goal by decreasing your desire for goal achievement. In three experimental studies, we find that individuals randomly assigned to think through a backup plan subsequently performed worse on their primary goal (Studies 1–3). We further show that this effect is mediated by study participants’ decreased desire to attain their primary goal (Study 3). This research provides a fresh perspective on plan-making, highlighting an important yet previously unexplored negative consequence of formulating plans.
... In the broader context of the recent literature on second chances and backup plans, that we referred to at the start of the introduction, a resit exam would seem to provide a particularly simple and clear example of a backup plan or, more precisely, a contingent backup plan, defined by Napolitano and Freund (2016) as a backup plan that links future actions to specific contingency conditions associated with failure of first-choice plans. Whereas such backup plans typically are intentionally developed and then held in reserve, which may introduce practical advance costs and detract resources from developing and using the first-choice plan (Napolitano & Freund, 2016; for exceptions, see Shin & Milkman, 2016), resit exams require no such advance investments from students. This greatly simplifies the development of formal models to compare different strategies in terms of associated expected utilities, as we did in the current paper. ...
... This greatly simplifies the development of formal models to compare different strategies in terms of associated expected utilities, as we did in the current paper. Interestingly, very similar to the resit effect reported here, recent research suggests that backup plans may lead to a reduced probability of achieving one's goal by the first-choice plan (Napolitano & Freund, 2017;Shin & Milkman, 2016). As for the resit effect (e.g., Grabe, 1994), such effects of backup plans have been ascribed, at least in part, to negative effects on people's motivation and effort to pursue the goal through Plan A (Napolitano & Freund, 2016, 2017Shin & Milkman, 2016). ...
... Interestingly, very similar to the resit effect reported here, recent research suggests that backup plans may lead to a reduced probability of achieving one's goal by the first-choice plan (Napolitano & Freund, 2017;Shin & Milkman, 2016). As for the resit effect (e.g., Grabe, 1994), such effects of backup plans have been ascribed, at least in part, to negative effects on people's motivation and effort to pursue the goal through Plan A (Napolitano & Freund, 2016, 2017Shin & Milkman, 2016). As suggested by Shin and Milkman (2016), such effects may be mediated by a decreased desire to attain the primary goal. ...
In accordance with a rational model of study-time investment, we previously found that the prospect of a resit exam leads to lower investments of fictional study-time for a first exam opportunity in an investment game utilizing simulated exams. In the current study, we investigated whether the depreciation of one’s first-exam investment reduces the resit effect. Specifically, we investigated study-time investments for a simulated multiple-choice exam in which 0, 50, or 100% of the initial study-time investment was lost before the resit exam. In accordance with our predictions, we found that the magnitude of the resit effect decreased as investment depreciation increased. This finding suggests that the negative effect of resit exams on study-time investment may be countered by creating conditions under which investment depreciation (i.e. forgetting) is expected to occur, for instance, by increasing the temporal interval between the first attempt and resit exam.
... In addition, people who wrote out their short-term goals, shared their commitment to complete the goals with others, and communicated progress with others were approximately 33% more successful than those who did not document their goals, share intent, and communicate progress with others (Matthews, 2012). Finally, a single focus on the goal without having a specific backup plan appears to be predictive of goal achievement given a longer time frame to accomplish desired results (Shin & Milkman, 2016). This document is copyrighted by the American Psychological Association or one of its allied publishers. ...
... Although making a backup plan may provide practical and emotional benefits in the face of uncertainty, the value may come at a higher cost than previously understood. Results from three studies suggest that the act of reflecting on a backup plan has harmful effects on goal accomplishment (Shin & Milkman, 2016). This research suggests that reflecting on or generating backup plans may actually reduce the probability of successful goal attainment by dampening the initial goal desire (note that goal success that is based on pure luck or innate skill will not be affected). ...
Most successful coaching engagements encourage clients to start, increase, decrease, modify, or stop behaviors that contribute to their effectiveness and performance on the job (Fogg, n.d.). Successfully sustaining new or altered behaviors over time until they become a habit is even more difficult (Nowack, 2009). Goal intentions (e.g., “I want to be a more participative and involvement-oriented leader”) have been found in a recent meta-analysis to be a weak predictor of acquiring new habits and account for approximately 28% of the variance in successful behavior-change efforts (Gollwitzer & Sheeran, 2006). Translating insight in coaching engagements to deliberate, varied, and ongoing practice has been shown to be associated with long-term successful behavior change (Nowack & Mashihi, 2012). This paper reviews current issues and best practices in goal intentions, goal striving, and goal flourishing to maximize coaching success with clients.
... In addition, people who wrote out their short-term goals, shared their commitment to complete the goals with others, and communicated progress with others were approximately 33% more successful than those who did not document their goals, share intent, and communicate progress with others (Matthews, 2012). Finally, a single focus on the goal without having a specific backup plan appears to be predictive of goal achievement given a longer time frame to accomplish desired results (Shin & Milkman, 2016). This document is copyrighted by the American Psychological Association or one of its allied publishers. ...
... Although making a backup plan may provide practical and emotional benefits in the face of uncertainty, the value may come at a higher cost than previously understood. Results from three studies suggest that the act of reflecting on a backup plan has harmful effects on goal accomplishment (Shin & Milkman, 2016). This research suggests that reflecting on or generating backup plans may actually reduce the probability of successful goal attainment by dampening the initial goal desire (note that goal success that is based on pure luck or innate skill will not be affected). ...
... Planning exists across organizations, entities, contexts, and time. Whereas one can see the inherent appeal of planning in organizations, research has found variability in its effects at the individual, team, and organizational level (Kudla 1980;Lanaj et al. 2013;Shin and Milkman 2016). Mintzberg (1994) famously identified the fallacy of planners being detached from the execution of their plans, which can lead to plans that are unrealistic and counterproductive. ...
We use meta-analytic structural equation modeling (MASEM) to examine how organizational planning leads to managerial performance. Specifically, we test a theoretically-driven model of how participative budgeting and strategic performance measurement systems can positively impact managerial job performance through role clarity. Our analyses of 60 studies (containing 99 effect sizes) from multidisciplinary literature indicate role clarity mediates the relationship between planning implementation processes and managerial job performance. Additionally, and contrary to previous research, path analysis suggests job-relevant information mediates the relationship between role clarity and managerial job performance. We explain how participation in planning may prompt managers who are clear about their roles to seek additional information in order to perform well. Finally, we identify a need in future research for a greater diversity of the operationalizations of the constructs, levels of analysis, and data collection methods.
... In one study, negotiators who had two alternatives (e.g., $80 and $90) made less ambitious first offers than negotiators who had only one of the two alternatives (e.g., $80 or $90), because multiple alternatives anchored negotiators more strongly than a single one (Schaerer, Loschelder, & Swaab, 2016). Having fallback options can also negatively affect people's motivation and persistence in striving for their ideal targets (Shin & Milkman, 2016). To the extent that negotiators are willing to accept their fallback option, having a "just good enough" alternative can cause a negotiator to leave value on the table. ...
This review synthesizes the impact of power on individual and joint negotiation performance. Although power generally has positive effects on negotiators’ individual performance (value claiming), recent work suggests that more power is not always beneficial. Taking a dyadic perspective, we also find mixed evidence for how power affects joint performance (value creation); some studies show that equal-power dyads create more value than unequal-power dyads, but others find the opposite. We identify the source of power, power distribution, and competitiveness as critical moderators of this relationship. Finally, we suggest that future research should move beyond studying alternatives in dyadic deal-making, identify strategies to overcome a lack of power, increase empirical realism, and take a more dynamic view of power in negotiations.
... While prior research has documented many negative effects of setting too flexible goals and plans (Ainslie, 2001;Cheema & Soman, 2006;Shin & Milkman, 2016), this research contributes to some of the recent research demonstrating the possible benefits of framing goals with a sense of flexibility. For example, high-low goals (e.g., score 2 to 4 points) have been found to lead people to be more likely to pursue their goal again (Scott & Nowlis, 2013) and nonspecific goals have been found, in some situations, to lead people to persist and perform better than those with specific goals (Ulkumen & Cheema, 2011;Wallace & Etkin, 2017). ...
Along the path of struggling to reach their personal and organizational long-term goals, the experience of an initial subgoal failure can lead individuals to feel less committed to their overall goal and even to give up entirely on reaching it. In one field study and four lab studies, we examine the ability of a cost-free nudge to decrease the detrimental impact of subgoal failure on goal attainment. More specifically, we demonstrate that framing goals with emergency reserves, a type of slack, can motivate individuals to persist after subgoal failures, leading to better performance on long-term goals, compared to objectively equivalent goals without slack. After failing to reach a subgoal, we found that individuals with goals framed with emergency reserves felt a greater sense of perceived progress, causing them to feel more committed to their goal, and thus increasing their likelihood of persisting at their goals.
... They perform worse with goals that have multiple means of achieving them, once they are past the initial stages of goal pursuit (Huang and Zhang 2013), and consumers with high-low goals (e.g., a goal to score between two and four points) are more likely to pursue their goal again but are not more likely to perform better than those with single goals (e.g., a goal to score two points or a goal to score four points) (Scott and Nowlis 2013). Furthermore, consumers with goals with backup plans for the superordinate goal perform worse on their primary goal than those without backup plans (Shin and Milkman 2016). Finally, goal specificity has different effects on consumers depending on the construal level. ...
Marketers of programs that are designed to help consumers reach goals face dual challenges of making the program attractive enough to encourage consumer signup while still motivating consumers to reach desirable goals and thus stay satisfied with the program. The authors offer a possible solution to this challenge: the emergency reserve, or slack with a cost. They demonstrate how an explicitly defined emergency reserve not only is preferred over other options for goal-related programs but can also lead to increased persistence. Study 1 demonstrates that consumers prefer programs with emergency reserves to programs that do not have them, and Study 2 further clarifies that consumers’ preference for an emergency reserve depends on the presence of a superordinate goal. Study 3 reveals that consumers prefer goals with emergency reserves because they perceive them to have both higher attainability and value than other goals. Study 4 demonstrates that reserves can lead to increased goal persistence in a ...
COVID-19 has generated unprecedented circumstances with a tremendous impact on the global community. The academic community has also been affected by the current pandemic, with strategy and management researchers now required to adapt elements of their research process from study design through to data collection and analysis. This chapter makes a contribution to the research methods literature by documenting the process of adapting research in light of rapidly changing circumstances, using vignettes of doctoral students from around the world. In sharing their experience of shifting from the initially proposed methodologies to their modified or completely new methodologies, they demonstrate the critical importance of adaptability in research. In doing so, this chapter draws on core literature of adaptation and conducting research in times of crises, aiming to provide key learnings, methodological tips and a “story of hope” for scholars who may be faced with similar challenges in the future.
To mitigate uncertainty in their goal pursuits, people use backup plans, i.e., alternative means that are developed to potentially replace “Plan A.” Several studies have demonstrated that backup plans can introduce unexpected costs into goal pursuits that decrease a person’s motivation to continue using their “Plan A,” and reduce their chances for achieving their goal. These existing studies used time-intensive experimental and/or observational approaches to assess the effects of backup planning. The present research examines the newly-developed Backup Planning Scale (BUPS) for its measurement invariance, reliability, validity, and other psychometric characteristics across three independent samples with more than 1,500 participants. Consistent with prior theorizing, we found support for a nine-item, three factor structure for the BUPS, indexing latent factors for a person’s tendency to develop, reserve, and replace with (or use) backup plans. Furthermore, a novel “IRTree” based statistical technique provided evidence for the validity of the measure, as participants’ responses to the BUPS were associated with their actual developing, reserving, and replacing backup planning behaviors in a logic task. We conclude that the freely-available BUPS is a simple, brief, reliable, and valid self-reported instrument for assessing backup planning behaviors across adulthood.
The literature on the exploration-exploitation tradeoff has anchored on the n-armed bandit problem as its canonical formal representation. This structure, however, omits a fundamental property of evolutionary dynamics. Contrary to a bandit formulation, foregoing an opportunity may negate the possibility of engaging in that opportunity in the future --- not just modifying the beliefs about the attractiveness of engaging in that opportunity. Thus, the bandit structure only incorporates path-dependence with respect to beliefs, and not with regard to capabilities as our usual conceptions of dynamics of learning and capabilities would suggest. Further, the consideration of opportunity cost is rather static and does not address the dynamic unfolding of opportunity structures. The nature of path-dependence and opportunity costs are used to frame many of our existing conceptualizations of search processes and firm dynamics, including bandit models, real options, pivoting, the “secretary problem”, and “island” models of firm diversification. The discussion points to the need to develop canonical models of what evolutionary biologists’ term phylogenetic trees and opens up a set of new questions, such as what is the degree of parallelism of trajectories that is possible within an organization, what is the fecundity of different trajectories in terms of likelihood of branching possibilities arising, how are these latent branching opportunities accessed?
Confidence, self-image, and self-esteem are all interrelated constructs that allow one to find value in oneself. This chapter focuses on some of the key strategies to maintain one’s self-image in a positive light. Self-help tools, coping strategies, and lifestyle management are important factors related to one’s self-image, self-esteem, and confidence. In this chapter a detailed discussion on proper sleep hygiene, exercise, and mindfulness are all discussed in relationship to one’s confidence. Finding your inner critic and overcoming mental limitations are also important strategies discussed in detail regarding confidence, self-image, and self-esteem. Learning these coping strategies discussed in this chapter will ultimately lead one to a better and healthier lifestyle while also increasing the chance of successfully Matching into a US residency program.
What is happening in hacker's minds when they are committing criminal activities? How black hat hackers manage nerves, which is about managing fear and underlying emotions, and which tactics they employ during their decision-making process before, during and after committing a crime, is the question that could provide some initial insights on hacker's trajectories, their switch from black hat to white hat and ultimately about their behaviors and motivations. The main difficulty in answering this question resides with the access to hacker's data. To address this gap, we conducted interviews with 16 black hat hackers. Supported by the general strain theory and routine activity theory, we identified five techniques that they use to manage their nerves: shunting, minimization, plan B, thrill, and lens widening techniques. Each of these techniques help hackers to better manage their nerves and consequently, learn how to better cope with the fear. During their psychological decision-making processes, hackers use these five techniques to create a new mindset, behind which they hide, with the objective of minimizing and mitigating the inherent risks they encounter during their criminal activities. The theoretical importance of nerve is the key to a better understanding of black hat hacker's illegal acts, their behaviors and ultimately their actions.
The lean start-up approach has garnered tremendous amount of interest in recent years and has become mainstream among entrepreneurs. However, this practitioners' conversation has been largely decoupled from the broader academic literature in management and technology strategy. This article attempts to fill this gap. We situate the construct of lean start-up within its underlying roots in the research traditions of organizational learning, real options, new product development, and technology evolution. We then comment on the economic and technological forces that have caused this organizational form to become prevalent. By juxtaposing these related, but distinct, lines of research we are able to identify a number of novel and interesting avenues for researchers in both entrepreneurship and the broader management literature that lie at the intersection of these domains.
Risk assessment is one the key activities of any project. The unexpected situations can have catastrophic consequences. Risk assessment tries to estimate to potential known unknowns, but there is no guarantee to foresee all circumstances around a project. In this situation the project team must be adaptive and find solutions by cooperation, creativity and abductive reasoning. In the paper we tried to analyse on what extent a project and a project team can be handled as a complex adaptive system. More precisely, how the scientific and practical achievements of the theory of complex adaptive systems (CAS) can be used in project management. More exactly, we analyse the applicability of the Holonic Multi-Agent Systems in risk management of the projects. We consider the way in which holons handle the unexpected situations can be a model in project management.
Purpose
This paper aims to identify and discuss four major sources of power in negotiations.
Findings
The four sources of power are alternatives, information, status and social capital. Each of these sources of power can enhance a negotiator’s likelihood of obtaining their ideal outcome because power allows negotiators to be more confident and proactive, and it shields them from the bargaining tactics of their opponents.
Practical implications
The paper discusses how negotiators can utilize each source of power to improve their negotiation outcomes.
Originality/value
The paper provides a parsimonious definition of power in negotiations, identifies the four major sources of negotiator powers and highlights two pathways by which power affects negotiation outcomes.
In this article, we attempt to distinguish between the properties of moderator and mediator variables at a number of levels. First, we seek to make theorists and researchers aware of the importance of not using the terms moderator and mediator interchangeably by carefully elaborating, both conceptually and strategically, the many ways in which moderators and mediators differ. We then go beyond this largely pedagogical function and delineate the conceptual and strategic implications of making use of such distinctions with regard to a wide range of phenomena, including control and stress, attitudes, and personality traits. We also provide a specific compendium of analytic procedures appropriate for making the most effective use of the moderator and mediator distinction, both separately and in terms of a broader causal system that includes both moderators and mediators. (46 ref) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)
The authors summarize 35 years of empirical research on goal-setting theory. They describe the core findings of the theory, the mechanisms by which goals operate, moderators of goal effects, the relation of goals and satisfaction, and the role of goals as mediators of incentives. The external validity and practical significance of goal-setting theory are explained, and new directions in goal-setting research are discussed. The relationships of goal setting to other theories are described as are the theory’s limitations.
The way a choice is presented influences what a decision-maker chooses. This paper outlines the tools available to choice architects, that is anyone who present people with choices. We divide these tools into two categories: those used in structuring the choice task and those used in describing the choice options. Tools for structuring the choice task address the idea of what to present to decision-makers, and tools for describing the choice options address the idea of how to present it. We discuss implementation issues in using choice architecture tools, including individual differences and errors in evaluation of choice outcomes. Finally, this paper presents a few applications that illustrate the positive effect choice architecture can have on real-world decisions.
Individuals have different concerns before and after they become relatively certain about a goal's attainability; hence, we propose that the presence of alternative means of goal attainment will have a distinctive impact on motivation, depending on their stage of goal pursuit. In the initial stage of goal pursuit, people are concerned about whether the goal is attainable. The presence of multiple attainment means (vs. a single means) makes the goal seem more easily attainable and thus leads to greater motivation. Conversely, when people have made substantial progress on the goal and its attainment is relatively secured, they focus more on how they can race to the end and complete the pursuit. At these times, a single means (vs. multiple means) provides a more straightforward action plan and in turn leads to greater motivation. Two field studies and 3 lab experiments support this theorizing. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved).
Planning has pronounced effects on consumer behavior and intertemporal choice. We develop a six-item scale measuring individual differences in propensity to plan that can be adapted to different domains and used to compare planning across domains and time horizons. Adaptations tailored to planning time and money in the short run and long run each show strong evidence of reliability and validity. We find that propensity to plan is moderately domain-specific. Scale measures and actual planning measures show that for time, people plan much more for the short run than the long run; for money, short- and long-run planning differ less. Time and money adaptations of our scale exhibit sharp differences in nomological correlates; short-run and long-run adaptations differ less. Domain-specific adaptations predict frequency of actual planning in their respective domains. A "very long-run" money adaptation predicts FICO credit scores; low planners thus face materially higher cost of credit. (c) 2009 by JOURNAL OF CONSUMER RESEARCH, Inc..
We evaluate the results of a field experiment designed to measure the effect of prompts to form implementation intentions on realized behavioral outcomes. The outcome of interest is influenza vaccination receipt at free on-site clinics offered by a large firm to its employees. All employees eligible for study participation received reminder mailings that listed the times and locations of the relevant vaccination clinics. Mailings to employees randomly assigned to the treatment conditions additionally included a prompt to write down either (i) the date the employee planned to be vaccinated or (ii) the date and time the employee planned to be vaccinated. Vaccination rates increased when these implementation intentions prompts were included in the mailing. The vaccination rate among control condition employees was 33.1%. Employees who received the prompt to write down just a date had a vaccination rate 1.5 percentage points higher than the control group, a difference that is not statistically significant. Employees who received the more specific prompt to write down both a date and a time had a 4.2 percentage point higher vaccination rate, a difference that is both statistically significant and of meaningful magnitude.
Phone calls encouraging citizens to vote are staples of modern campaigns. Insights from psychological science can make these calls dramatically more potent while also generating opportunities to expand psychological theory. We present a field experiment conducted during the 2008 presidential election (N = 287,228) showing that facilitating the formation of a voting plan (i.e., implementation intentions) can increase turnout by 4.1 percentage points among those contacted, but a standard encouragement call and self-prediction have no significant impact. Among single-eligible-voter households, the formation of a voting plan increased turnout among persons contacted by 9.1 percentage points, whereas those in multiple-eligible-voter households were unaffected by all scripts. Some situational factors may organically facilitate implementation-intentions formation more readily than others; we present data suggesting that this could explain the differential treatment effect that we found. We discuss implications for psychological and political science, and public interventions involving implementation-intentions formation.
Expected utility theory, prospect theory, and most other models of risky choice are based on the fundamental premise that
individuals choose among risky prospects by balancing the value of the possible consequences. These models, therefore, require
that the value of a risky prospect lie between the value of that prospect's highest and lowest outcome. Although this requirement
seems essential for any theory of risky decision-making, we document a violation of this condition in which individuals value
a risky prospect less than its worst possible realization. This demonstration, which we term the uncertainty effect, draws from more than 1000 experimental participants, and includes hypothetical and real pricing and choice tasks, as well
as field experiments in real markets with financial incentives. Our results suggest that there are choice situations in which
decision-makers discount lotteries for uncertainty in a manner that cannot be accommodated by standard models of risky choice.
From the time of Bernoulli on, it has been common to argue that (a) individuals tend to display aversion to the taking of
risks, and (b) that risk aversion in turn is an explanation for many observed phenomena in the economic world [Arrow 1971, p. 90].
To see whether the stages of change are useful for targeting a brief intervention to reduce smoking based on implementation intentions. A second objective was to rule out demand characteristics as an alternative explanation for the findings of intervention studies based on the transtheoretical model and implementation intentions.
Participants (N = 350) were randomized to a passive control condition (questionnaire only), active control condition (questionnaire plus instruction to plan to quit), or experimental condition (questionnaire, plan to quit, form an implementation intention). Their behavior and psychosocial orientation to quit were measured at baseline and at 2-month follow-up.
Theory of planned behavior variables, nicotine dependence, and quitting.
Significantly more people quit smoking in the experimental condition than in the control conditions, and the planning instructions changed intention to quit and perceived control over quitting, but not behavior. Stage of change moderated these effects such that implementation intentions worked best for individuals who were in the preparation stage at baseline.
Harnessing both motivational and volitional processes seems to enhance the effectiveness of smoking cessation programs, although further work is required to clarify inconsistencies in the literature using the stages of change.
This article concerns a class of experimental manipulations that require people to generate explanations or imagine scenarios. A review of studies using such manipulations indicates that people who explain or imagine a possibility then express greater confidence in the truth of that possibility. It is argued that this effect results from the approach people take in the explanation or imagination task: They temporarily assume that the hypothesis is true and assess how plausibly it can account for the relevant evidence. From this view, any task that requires that a hypothesis be treated as if it were true is sufficient to increase confidence in the truth of that hypothesis. Such tasks cause increased confidence in the hypothesis at the expense of viable alternatives because of changes in problem representation, evidence evaluation, and information search that take place when the hypothesis is temporarily treated as if it were true.
We tested whether behavioural manifestations of mental fatigue may be linked to compromised executive control, which refers to the ability to regulate perceptual and motor processes for goal-directed behaviour. In complex tasks, compromised executive control may become manifest as decreased flexibility and sub-optimal planning. In the study we use the Wisconsin Card Sorting Test (WCST) and the Tower of London (TOL), which respectively measure flexibility (e.g., perseverative errors) and planning. A simple memory task was used as a control measure. Fatigue was induced through working for 2 h on cognitively demanding tasks. The results showed that compared to a non-fatigued group, fatigued participants displayed more perseveration on the WCST and showed prolonged planning time on the TOL. Fatigue did not affect performance on the simple memory task. These findings indicate compromised executive control under fatigue, which may explain the typical errors and sub-optimal performance that are often found in fatigued people.
How do people judge the monetary value of objects? One clue is provided by the typical endowment study (D. Kahneman, J. L. Knetsch, & R. H. Thaler, 1991), in which participants are randomly given either a good, such as a coffee mug, that they may later sell ("sellers") or a choice between the good and amounts of cash ("choosers"). Sellers typically demand at least twice as much as choosers, inconsistent with economic theory. This result is usually explained by an increased weighting of losses, or loss aversion. The authors provide a memory-based account of endowment, suggesting that people construct values by posing a series of queries whose order differs for sellers and choosers. Because of output interference, these queries retrieve different aspects of the object and the medium of exchange, producing different valuations. The authors show that the content and structure of the recalled aspects differ for selling and choosing and that these aspects predict valuations. Merely altering the order in which queries are posed can eliminate the endowment effect, and changing the order of queries can produce endowment-like effects without ownership.
In this study we examine the role played by perceived goal importance and self-focus in the goal-setting process. More specifically, this study tests the interactive hypotheses that (a) task performance is a function of goal level, self-focus, and perceived goal importance; (b) goal level is a function of perceptions of past performance, self-focus, and perceived goal importance; and (c) perceptions of past performance are a function of actual past performance, self-focus, and perceived goal importance. Hierarchical regression analysis, using a sample of 88 retail salespersons, revealed empirical support for the first two hypotheses. Specifically, the variables described by control theory account for an increment of 6 and 8% of the variance explained in task performance and self-set goal level, respectively. Finally, implications for theory, practice, and future research are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)
Experimental learning that conforms to standard learning models is shown to lead learners to favor less risky alternatives when possible outcomes are positive. This learning disadvantage for risky alternatives is likely to be quite substantial and persistent, particularly among relatively fast learners. Learning to choose among alternatives whose outcomes lie in the negative domain, on the other hand, leads to favoring more risky alternatives in the short run but tends to become risk neutral in the long run. Thus, the fact that human beings exhibit greater risk aversion for gains than for losses in a wide variety of situations may reflect accumulated learning rather than inexplicable human traits or utility functions. Some implications of an experiential learning interpretation of risk preferences are discussed.
Ss asked to generate their own hypotheses expressed less confidence that they were true than did other Ss who were presented with the same hypotheses for evaluation. This finding holds across domains varying from prediction and social inference to general knowledge questions. Furthermore, Ss who generated their own hypotheses appeared to be more sensitive to their accuracy than were Ss who evaluated the hypotheses. The results are interpreted as evidence that the hypothesis generation task leads Ss to consider more alternative hypotheses than Ss who are asked to evaluate a prespecified hypothesis. This interpretation is supported by experiments demonstrating that the difference between generation and evaluation disappears if a closed set of alternatives is specified or if a delay is inserted between hypothesis generation and confidence assessment.
Implementation intentions represent a potentially powerful means to increase fruit consumption, yet no studies have demonstrated their effects in this domain. The aim of the present study was to test the effectiveness of an implementation intention intervention to increase fruit consumption and to control for some possible demand characteristics by measuring cognition and behaviour immediately following the manipulation. A total of 120 participants were recruited and randomly allocated to a questionnaire-only control condition or an implementation intention-plus-questionnaire experimental condition. Findings revealed significant increases in fruit consumption in the experimental condition, but not in the control condition, F(1, 80) = 4.47, p
A considerable body of research supports the idea that individuals who set be- havioral goals perform better than others who set no goals. In this article, we propose that in addition to the positive effects, goals may also have a counter- productive effect. Specifically, we propose that violating one's goal may cause a deterioration of subsequent performance as compared to individuals who have no goals. When the violation of one's goal is coded as a failure, it can result in demotivation, negative emotion, and consequently a poorer performance. We re- port two experiments that demonstrate the counterproductive effects of goals and discuss potential moderators of this effect along with several possible process explanations.
In the U.S., 18,800 lives could be saved annually if those advised to obtain colorectal screenings based on national guidelines complied (Zauber et al., 2012). Subtle suggestions embedded in a decision-making environment can change people's choices (Thaler and Sunstein, 2008). Past research has shown that prompting people to form plans about where and when they will complete an intended behavior increases engagement in activities ranging from voting to vaccination (Gollwitzer and Sheeran, 2006; Milkman et al., 2011; Nickerson and Rogers, 2010). When plans are formed, they link intended behaviors with a concrete future moment and course of action, creating cues that reduce forgetfulness and procrastination. We studied whether planning prompts increase colonoscopy rates.
What motivates individuals at work? How do we know when behavior is the result of motivation or some other internal or external factor? What can managers do to maintain or increase the motivation of their employees? These questions and others like them have been a central focus of industrial and organizational (I/O) psychology for many years. The purpose of this chapter is to provide an overview of the field of work motivation from a process perspective, starting with individual and situational antecedents, moving to the self-regulatory processes involved in pursuing an action goal, and considering the effects of motivation on behavior and well-being. We also review research on difficulties individuals encounter in motivation and a variety of potential interventions aimed at improving motivation. It is widely recognized that motivation is a process, but most reviews adopt an approach that emphasizes a theory-by-theory account of the field. Whereas certain theories pertain to primarily one aspect of the motivation process (e.g., expectancy theory pertains primarily to goal choice), others span multiple aspects (e.g., self-determination theory pertains to needs, goals, and self-regulation). We hope to help integrate these theories by highlighting the point(s) in the motivation process at which they are presumed to have their effects. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)
This paper provides a theoretical perspective for dealing with the initial entry stage of interpersonal interaction. The seven axioms and 21 theorems presented suggest a set of research priorities for studying the development of interpersonal relationships. The paper concludes with a discussion of some of the problems to be considered if the theory is to be extended beyond the initial stages of interaction.
Decision-makers with ideal candidates already in mind often extend search beyond optimal endpoints when searching for the best option among a sequential list of alternatives. Extended search is investigated here using three laboratory experiments; individuals in these tasks exhibit future-bias, delaying choice beyond normative benchmarks. Searchers' behavior is consistent with setting high thresholds based on a focal ideal outcome without full attention to its probability or the value of second-best alternatives; the behavior is partially debiased by manipulating which outcomes are in the searchers' focal set. Documenting future-bias in sequential search tasks offers new insights for understanding self-control and intertemporal choice by providing a situation in which thresholds may be set too high and myopic behavior does not prevail. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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Building on recent research examining the influence of decision making on subsequent goal striving and decision enactment, we consider and elaborate on the mechanisms through which effortful decisions are made, maintained, and enacted. Our proposed framework builds on the Dholakia and Bagozzi (2002) model, distinguishes between two important types of intentions and desires, and shows that the motivation-mustering function of the decision process is mediated by goal and implementation desires. In addition to decision processes, the roles of goal feasibility, anticipated emotions, attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control are also elaborated on. Through a two-wave field study tracking real decisions and their pursuit by participants, we find empirical support for our model of effortful decision making and enactment. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Decision makers have a strong tendency to consider problems as unique. They isolate the current choice from future opportunities and neglect the statistics of the past in evaluating current plans. Overly cautious attitudes to risk result from a failure to appreciate the effects of statistical aggregation in mitigating relative risk. Overly optimistic forecasts result from the adoption of an inside view of the problem, which anchors predictions on plans and scenarios. The conflicting biases are documented in psychological research. Possible implications for decision making in organizations are examined.
The article describes what has been found during 30 years of research by the author and others on the relationship between conscious performance goals and performance on work tasks. This approach is contrasted with previous approaches to motivation theory which stressed physiological, external or subconscious causes of action. The basic contents of goal setting theory are summarized in terms of 14 categories of findings. An applied example is provided.
Subjective expected utility, prospect theory and most other formal models of decision making under uncertainty are probabilistic: they assume that in making choices people judge the likelihood of relevant uncertainties. Clearly, in many situations people do indeed judge likelihood. However, we present studies suggesting that there are also many situations in which people do not judge likelihood and instead base their decisions on intuitively generated, non-probabilistic rules or rationales. Thus, we argue that real-world situations are of two types. In situations eliciting a probabilistic mindset, people rely on judgments of likelihood. In situations eliciting a non-probabilistic mindset, they neglect judgments of likelihood. We suggest three factors that may influence the tendency towards either probabilistic or non-probabilistic mindsets. We also outline how extant probabilistic theories may be complemented by non-probabilistic models.
Numerous studies of goal setting have found that specific and difficult or high-level goals lead to higher performance than vague (do best), easy goals, or no goals. However, often it has been asserted in the literature that specific goals as such lead to higher performance than vague goals even though goal theory makes no such claim. However, no previous study (with one partial exception) has actually separated the effects of goal level from those of goal specificity. It was predicted that when the two goal attributes were separated, goal level would affect level of performance whereas goal specificity would affect the variability of performance. Two experiments were conducted to test these hypotheses. The first used a reaction time task and the second an idea-generation task. The results of both studies supported the hypotheses. However, one of the two present studies and two previous studies found that high goal levels can also affect performance variance.
We argue that goals serve as reference points and alter outcomes in a manner consistent with the value function of Prospect Theory (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979; Tversky & Kahneman, 1992). We present new evidence that goals inherit the proper ties of the value function-not only a reference point, but also loss aversion and diminishing sensitivity. We also use the value function to explain previous empirical results in the goal literature on affect, effort, persistence, and performance. (C) 1999 Academic Press.
This study compared a motivational intervention based on protection motivation theory (PMT, Rogers, 1975, 1983) with the same motivational intervention augmented by a volitional intervention based on implementation intentions (Gollwitzer, 1993).
The study had a longitudinal design, involving three waves of data collection over a 2-week period, incorporating an experimental manipulation of PMT variables at Time 1 and a volitional, implementation intention intervention at Time 2.
Participants (N=248) were randomly allocated to a control group or one of two intervention groups. Cognitions and exercise behaviour were measured at three time-points over a 2-week period.
The motivational intervention significantly increased threat and coping appraisal and intentions to engage in exercise but did not bring about a significant increase in subsequent exercise behaviour. In contrast, the combined protection motivation theory/implementation intention intervention had a dramatic effect on subsequent exercise behaviour. This volitional intervention did not influence behavioural intention or any other motivational variables.
It is concluded that supplementing PMT with implementation intentions strengthens the ability of the model to explain behaviour. This has implications for health education programmes, which should aim to increase both participants' motivation and their volition.
The optimal moment to address the question of how to improve human decision making has arrived. Thanks to 50 years of research by judgment and decision-making scholars, psychologists have developed a detailed picture of the ways in which human judgment is bounded. This article argues that the time has come to focus attention on the search for strategies that will improve bounded judgment because decision-making errors are costly and are growing more costly, decision makers are receptive, and academic insights are sure to follow from research on improvement. In addition to calling for research on improvement strategies, this article organizes the existing literature pertaining to improvement strategies and highlights promising directions for future research.
© 2009 Association for Psychological Science.