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A Simple extension of Dematerialization Theory: Incorporation of Technical Progress and the Rebound Effect

January 2016
Technological Forecasting and Social Change 117

DOI:10.1016/j.techfore.2016.12.001

License
CC BY-NC-ND 4.0

Authors:

Christopher L. Magee

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Tessaleno C. Devezas

Universidade da Beira Interior

Dematerialization is the reduction in the quantity of materials needed to produce something useful over time. Dematerialization fundamentally derives from ongoing increases in technical performance but it can be counteracted by demand rebound - increases in usage because of increased value (or decreased cost) that also results from increasing technical performance. A major question then is to what extent technological performance improvement can offset and is offsetting continuously increasing economic consumption. This paper contributes to answering this question by offering some simple quantitative extensions to the theory of dematerialization. The paper then empirically examines the materials consumption trends as well as cost trends for a large set of materials and a few modern artifacts over the past decades. In each of 57 cases examined, the particular combinations of demand elasticity and technical performance rate improvement are not consistent with dematerialization. Overall, the theory extension and empirical examination indicate that there is no dematerialization occurring even for cases of information technology with rapid technical progress. Thus, a fully passive policy stance that relies on unfettered technological change is not supported by our results.

Trends over time in population growth + 0.5x GDP growth We now turn to examining the effect of key variables on dematerialization by showing the boundary defined by inequality 6 as a function of the variables. The next three graphs show the areas of materialization and dematerialization for some possible values of ε di and k i , and for approximate current values of !"#$ !" and !"# ! ! !" (0.01 and 0.03 respectively). Figure 2 shows that dematerialization occurs (under the somewhat reasonable assumption of ki = 0.05 and í µí¼ !" = 0.5) in the lower left triangle bounded by a maximum GDP growth of 5% per year and a max population growth of 2.5%. This result is somewhat encouraging by indicating the possibility of achieving economic growth while dematerializing.

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b: The hardware technology cases from Table 2 plotted in the format of Figure 4

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Figures - uploaded by Christopher L. Magee

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Available via license: CC BY-NC-ND 4.0

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A"Simple"Extension"of"Dematerialization"Theory:"Incorporation"of""

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Keywords:*dematerialization* theory;*technical* performance* progress;*rebound* effect;*

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Sustainable Development and Market Trends in Romania

Article

Apr 2023

The paper addresses sustainable development and shows the capacity of the Romanian market to achieve the goals set in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. The new Agenda focuses on a holistic approach to sustainable development in order to achieve global development. Sustainable development is addressed nationally and internationally because businesses do not exist in isolation. Business is a complex network that interacts and completes itself. The use of material, human, financial and informational resources by companies contributes to the assessment of the organisational capacity for sustainable development. Based on the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and 169 associated targets, the paper presents a general assessment of Romania's situation on the three dimensions: economic, social and environmental. Following this evaluation, we can conclude that the Romanian market needs to be aligned with the requirements of the European Union, and the difficulties encountered in various directions must be improved by defining strategic directions in line with international objectives.

Developing a Framework of Sustainable Consumption in Retailing Contexts

Article

Jul 2023

Over the years, the retail sector has been showing increasing interest in inculcating sustainable consumption practices and behaviors among their consumers. This study, accordingly, explores how retailers can contribute to addressing consumers’ various psychological dispositions to co-create sustainable consumption in the retail context. In that regard, the MAPED framework has been developed corresponding to White et al.’s SHIFT framework for exploring the process and mechanism of co-creating sustainable consumption in the retail sector. This comprehensive conceptual framework has been developed using a methodological approach of critical review and analysis of the extant academic literature on value co-creation and sustainable consumption. Accordingly, this study attempts to contribute to both sustainable consumption and value co-creation literature.

Exploring theoretical conditions for a steady-state global economy: A simulation model

Article

Full-text available

May 2023

We use a simulation model to explore the theoretical impact of technology, recycling, household propensity for material consumption, and nature conservation policies on economic growth and possible stabilization of the global economy within biophysical boundaries. The model dynamics, which arise from the autocatalytic loop between production and household sectors that deplete finite natural resources, qualitatively reproduce historically observed global GDP growth. The simulation results show that a sustainable but unstable steady-state can be reasonably reached only by the simultaneous application of policies that increase nature conservation and promote environmentally efficient technologies, a circular economy, and less-intensive material lifestyles. These policy measures, if realized, would reflect the anticipatory behavior of the human system to prevent future hazards by taking adequate actions in the present. The unstable steady-state suggests long-term sustainability would depend on continuous behavioral, institutional, and policy adjustments rooted in anticipatory behavior.

The spatial dynamics of deep transitions

Article

Jun 2022

Laur Kanger

Industrial societies are currently evolving along a fundamentally unsustainable trajectory, contributing to climate change, resource depletion and loss of biodiversity. A recent Deep Transitions framework (Schot and Kanger, 2018; Kanger and Schot, 2019) argues that this trajectory has been built up through the First Deep Transition: a 250-year co-evolution of multiple socio-technical systems. However, to date the Deep Transitions framework has completely neglected the spatial dimension of this process. This makes it unable to explain (1) how socio-technical systems emerge in, gravitate towards, become linked in and disperse from certain locations ; (2) how global constraints condition actors' responses in specific locations and how these responses, in turn, reproduce or transform socio-technical systems; (3) how these processes accumulate into socio-material landscapes, posing locationally varying constraints to major transformative change. As a response this paper aims to develop a middle-range theory of the spatial dynamics of Deep Transitions. Synthesizing insights from a broad range of fields nine propositions are developed on the spatial patterns and mechanisms of long-term multi-system co-evolution. The resulting framework enables to explain the spatial genesis of the First Deep Transition and opens up a research agenda for studying the possibly emerging Second Deep Transition.

Material Flows and Efficiency

Article

Jul 2022

Attempts to track material flows and the calculation of efficiency for material systems go hand in hand. Questions of where materials come from, where materials go to, and how much material is lost along the way are embedded in human societies. This article reviews material flows, their analysis, and progress toward material efficiency. We focus first on material flow analysis (MFA) and the three key tenants of any MFA: presentation of materials, visualization of the flow structure, and insight derived from analysis. Reviewing recent literature, we explore how each of these concepts is described, organized, and presented in MFA studies. We go on to show the role of MFA in material efficiency calculations and what-if scenario analysis for informed decision-making. We investigate the origins and motivations behind the material efficiency paradigm and the key efficiency strategies and practices developed in recent years and conclude by suggesting priorities for a future research agenda. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Materials Research, Volume 52 is July 2022. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

Dematerialization: Needs and Challenges

Chapter

Jul 2023

Can Baran Aktaş

Population Governance [Author's manuscript]

Chapter

Full-text available

Nov 2022

Karin Kuhlemann

Dematerialization: Needs and Challenges

Chapter

Dec 2021

Can Baran Aktaş

The Root Causes of Our Environmental Crises We Ignore

Chapter

Nov 2022

David A. Hindin

This chapter focuses on four root causes that could be the most important causes that are rarely addressed by governments, industries, and many environmental professionals who continue to accept the ideology that technological innovation will allow endless economic growth on a finite planet. The four root causes are: limits of human evolutionary strengths and our psychological biases; human population; anthropocentrism; and the myth that technological innovation allows endless growth in consumption of materials, energy, and land on a finite planet. There are other root causes, but unless we address these root causes, we are unlikely to make progress on addressing the global environmental crises we have created. KeywordsAnthropocentrismCognitive biasesPopulationEvolutionConsumptionEconomic growthTechnology limitations

Is Digital Adoption the way forward to Curb Energy Poverty?

Article

Jul 2022
TECHNOL FORECAST SOC

In the recent years, several studies have investigated the technology-emission nexus, but overlooked the effect of technology penetration and digital adoption by society, businesses, and the government. This readiness to embrace the digitization of processes is the direct outcome of technological innovation and R&D investment, particularly in matters relating to the environment by changing the energy structure in the form of electricity generation. This study, therefore, investigates the role of digital adoption in coping with the broader issue of energy poverty and environmental protection. Electricity generation from fossil fuels (EG) and the digital adoption index (DAI), and its sub-indexes are the major variables that have been used in this study. In this regard, the study assesses how the level of technology adoption in an economy essentially affects electricity generation, and consequently the climate. Our results exhibit that digital adoption leads to a reduction in electricity generation, and also indicate that digital adoption can make the environment better by bringing efficiencies in the use of electricity, and by reducing the use of fossil fuels.

Quantitative empirical trends in technical performance

Article

Full-text available

Jan 2016
TECHNOL FORECAST SOC

Technological improvement trends such as Moore's law and experience curves have been widely used to understand how technologies change over time and to forecast the future through extrapolation. Such studies can also potentially provide a deeper understanding of R&D management and strategic issues associated with technical change. However, such uses of technical performance trends require further consideration of the relationships among possible independent variables — in particular between time and possible effort variables such as cumulative production, R&D spending, and patent production. The paper addresses this issue by analyzing performance trends and patent output over time for 28 technological domains. In addition to patent output, production and revenue data are analyzed for the integrated circuits domain. The key findings are:1.Sahal's equation is verified for additional effort variables (for patents and revenue in addition to cumulative production where it was first developed).2.Sahal's equation is quite accurate when all three relationships — (a) an exponential between performance and time, (b) an exponential between effort and time, (c) a power law between performance and the effort variable — have good data fits (r2>0.7).3.The power law and effort exponents determined are dependent upon the choice of effort variable but the time dependent exponent is not.4.All 28 domains have high quality fits (r2>0.7) between the log of performance and time whereas 9 domains have very low quality (r2<0.5) for power law fits with patents as the effort variable.5.Even with the highest quality fits (r2>0.9), the exponential relationship is not perfect and it is thus best to consider these relationships as the foundation upon which more complex (but nearly exponential) relationships are based.

The world economy in a cube: A more rational structural representation of sustainability

Article

Full-text available

Aug 2015

National economic systems are investigated in a 3-axis diagram where three different indicators are used to account for resource use, societal organization, and goods and services produced, respectively. This framework is consistent with an input-state-output (environment-society-economy) scheme based on a logical, physical and thermodynamic order between the three dimensions of sustainability. This approach highlights which input-state-output relations are realized and which relations are less common in the behavior of these systems. It assesses and overcomes major drawbacks of common representations of sustainability. Within a cube diagram, 99 national economies are ranked and grouped into 8 categories, which are labeled to reflect the main characteristics of their behavior according to the three environmental, social and economic parameters. A cluster analysis is also performed in order to statistically support the classification and strengthen the interpretation of results. Results show that no countries exhibit a dematerialization of economic activity and that non-sustainable economic activity can take place over a wide range of income distributions (Gini coefficients).

The coal question: an inquiry concerning the progress of the nation, and the probable exhaustion of our coal-mines

Book

Jan 1965

William Stanley Jevons

Long-Term Equilibrium Effects of Constraints in Energy Supply

Chapter

Jan 1984

L. G. Brookes

The conventional view of the energy situation since 1973 is that oil prices will continue to rise as demand and supply trends diverge, and that other fuel prices will follow suit. This, according to the conventional view is no bad thing; it will bring an overdue new respect for energy, leading to less wasteful practices and more energy-efficient processes. The high prices will also encourage the development of new energy resources which, up to now, have been considered too costly. These developments will bring supply and demand into balance at much lower levels of energy consumption per unit of economic output.

Difficult to access

Article

Jan 2013

B. Nagy

The people problem

Article

Moore's law at forty

Article

Jan 2006

G.E. Moore

Human development in a climate-constrained world: What the past says about the future

Article

Jul 2015
GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG

Energy consumption is necessary for the delivery of human development by supporting access to basic needs, services and infrastructure. Given prevailing technologies and the high degree of inertia in practical rates of decarbonisation, growth in energy consumption from rising global living standards may drive consequent greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). In this paper the ‘development as usual’ GHG emissions impact of achieving high levels of life expectancy, access to basic needs and continued economic growth are projected to the mid-century using historical elasticities of development and energy consumption in 3 regions – Africa, Centrally Planned Asia, and South Asia. The results suggest that long life expectancy and high levels of access to basic needs are achievable at lower levels of emissions than continued economic growth, but will consume a substantial share of the global budget associated with a 2 °C climate goal.

On improvement rates for renewable energy technologies: Solar PV, wind turbines, capacitors, and batteries

Article

Aug 2014
RENEW ENERG

An important issue in various domains of renewable energy is the use of technological improvement trends to project future capabilities of energy technologies. This paper analyzes two pairs of renewable energy technologies and finds that the annual improvement rate of cost/investment is quite different for the four technological domains: namely, solar photovoltaics (PV) (9.0% per year), wind turbines (2.9%), batteries (3.1%) and capacitors (21.1%). While these trends have been reasonably consistent over long time frames, projecting these trends into the future without a better understanding of the underlying causes of the improvements is not at all reliable. This paper establishes theoretical fundamentals for explaining the differences in such rates and a framework for empirically probing such explanations using patent data. Employing this framework, this study collects and analyzes a set of highly representative patents for each of the four domains, allowing measurement of: patenting rates, reliance on scientific literature and other characteristics of the different fields. Our study of the inventions, while not establishing an indisputable causal relationship for the differing rates, establishes a broader theoretical basis for why such rates differ so greatly and why they might be stable over time. Among many possible effects, this study indicates that the age of knowledge utilized in the patents and the percentage of very important inventions in the field are the most likely significant contributors to higher rates of advance.

What are the carbon emissions elasticities for income and population? Bridging STIRPAT and EKC via robust heterogeneous panel estimates

Article

Mar 2015
GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG

Brant Liddle

Knowledge of the carbon emissions elasticities of income and population is important both for climate change policy/negotiations and for generating projections of carbon emissions. However, previous estimations of these elasticities using the well-known STIRPAT framework have produced such wide-ranging estimates that they add little insight. This paper presents estimates of the STIRPAT model that address that shortcoming, as well as the issues of cross-sectional dependence, heterogeneity, and the nonlinear transformation of a potentially integrated variable, i.e., income. Among the findings are that the carbon emissions elasticity of income is highly robust; and that the income elasticity for OECD countries is less than one, and likely less than the non-OECD country income elasticity, which is not significantly different from one. By contrast, the carbon emissions elasticity of population is not robust; however, that elasticity is likely not statistically significantly different from one for either OECD or non-OECD countries. Lastly, the heterogeneous estimators were exploited to reject a carbon Kuznets curve: while the country-specific income elasticities declined over observed average income-levels, the trend line had a slight U-shape.

A Simple extension of Dematerialization Theory: Incorporation of Technical Progress and the Rebound Effect

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