The hype cycle model: A review and future directions

ArticleinTechnological Forecasting and Social Change 108 · April 2016with 3,676 Reads 
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  • ... Moreover, as the path-breaking nature of the underlying research on graphene and its novel properties is acknowledged, it is perhaps inevitable that there will be hype and over-expectation as to the scale and scope of potential commercial applications. The use of hype to boost an emerging technology is evident in elsewhere in nanotechnology and in other emerging technologies (Meyer 2007;van Lente et al. 2013), and there have been calls to better validate such claims (Dedehayir and Steinert 2016). Enterprise web mining offers an avenue to track downstream applications, Table 3 Graphene SMEs: factors influencing product introductions. ...
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    This paper explores enterprise development and commercialization in the field of graphene. Firm characteristics and relationships, value chain positioning, and factors associated with product entry are examined for a set of 65 graphene-oriented small and medium-sized enterprises located in 16 different countries. As well as secondary sources and bibliometric methods to profile developments in graphene, we use computerized data mining and analytical techniques, including cluster and regression modeling, to identify patterns from publicly available online information on enterprise web sites. We identify groups of graphene small and medium-sized enterprises differentiated by how they are involved with graphene, the materials they target, whether they make equipment, and their orientation toward science and intellectual property. In general, access to finance and the firms’ location are significant factors that are associated with graphene product introductions. We also find that patents and scientific publications are not statistically significant predictors of product development in our sample of graphene enterprises. We further identify a cohort of graphene-oriented firms that are signaling plans to develop intermediate graphene products that should have higher value in the marketplace. Our findings suggest that policy needs to ensure attention to the introduction and scale-up of downstream intermediate and final graphene products and associated financial, intermediary, and market identification support. The paper demonstrates novel data methods that can be combined with existing information for real-time intelligence to understand and map enterprise development and commercialization in a rapidly emerging and growing new technology.
  • ... This should bring forward adoption by "followers" and "laggards" thus boosting the adoption curve as suggested in Fig. 1, which illustrates: 1) Co-design with end-users in the technology development phase generates reasonable expectations. This reduces the possibility of a new technology being overhyped (e.g., see [60] for a review of Gartners Hype Cycle) and suffering a negative backlash that would likely slow down adoption and reduce the peak adoption level. ...
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    Precision agriculture (PA) technologies have great potential for promoting sustainable intensification of food production, ensuring targeted delivery of agricultural inputs, and hence food security and environmental protection. The benefits of PA technologies are applicable across a broad range of agronomic, environmental and rural socio-economic contexts globally. However, farmer and land-manager adoption in low to middle income countries has typically been slower than that observed in more affluent countries. China is currently engaged in the process of agricultural modernisation to ensure food security for its 1.4 billion population and has developed a portfolio of policies designed to improve food security, while simultaneously promoting environmental protection. Particular attention has been paid to the reduction of agricultural inputs such as fertilisers and pesticides. The widespread adoption of PA technologies across the Chinese agricultural landscape is central to the success of these policies. However, socio-economic and cultural barriers, farm scale, (in particular the prevalence of smaller family farms) and demographic changes in the rural population, (for example, the movement of younger people to the cities) represent barriers to PA adoption across China. A framework for ensuring an acceptable and accelerated PA technology trajectory is proposed which combines systematic understanding of farmer and end-user priorities and preferences for technology design throughout the technology development process, and subsequent end-user requirements for implementation (including demonstration of economic and agronomic benefits, and knowledge transfer). Future research will validate the framework against qualitative and quantitative socioeconomic, cultural and agronomic indicators of successful, or otherwise, PA implementation. The results will provide the evidence upon which to develop further policies regarding how to secure sustainable food production and how best to implement PA in China, as well as practical recommendations for optimising end-user uptake.
  • ... 3D bioprinted human tissue or be climbing the slope of enlightenment to the plateau of productivity e.g. 3D printing of dental devices (Dedehayir and Steinert 2016). While the truth of where the different aspects of 3D printing technology lie on the hype cycle will only be known in hindsight, what is clear is that there is a large scope of applicability and that this is a disruptive technology i.e. one that is fundamentally changing manufacturing and creating new fields of enterprise. ...
    Chapter
    Traditional prototype development and optimization is a long and costly process. Customization of those products is either very difficult or unfeasible. Healthcare implants are often chosen by the surgeon, much like shoes, for the ‘best fit’. In addition to synthetic implant issues, there is a considerable lack of tissue and organs for transplant. When we consider the development and testing of new drugs, many in vitro models are poor predictors for drug efficacy. Cell and tissue growth on commonly used plastics, in 2 dimensions, may be part of this issue. Looking at drug delivery, the release and stability are often poorly optimized, with controlled drug delivery and release kinetics often unaddressed. In addition to these healthcare related issues, the world is facing increased pressure for resources due to both population growth and standard of living increases.
  • ... Figura 1 -O denominado Hype Cycle e indicadores de estagios intermediários [6]. ...
    Technical Report
    The present article contains a bibliographical review and response to the questioning of the title. The characteristics of the IoT systems were considered, and iopportunities dentified for lighting research on smart cities. Developments collected on implementation in smart cities are presented. Smart cities and interconnections can be secured through the implementation of blockchains in IoT. The existence in a city of IoT, interconnected sensors, processing capacity with Megadados and the mastery of blockchain technology will surely help in the expansion of so-called intelligent cities and will provide a higher level of security to the citizens. Blockchain: Solução para a Expansão das Cidades Inteligentes? Resumo O presente artigo contém uma revisão bibliografica e resposta ao questionamento do título. As características dos sistemas IoT foram consideradas, e identificadas oportunidades de pesquisas em iluminação no âmbito das cidades consideradas inteligentes. Desenvolvimentos coligidos sobre implementação em cidades inteligentes estão apresentados. As cidades inteligentes e as interconexões poderão ser seguras através da implementação de blockchains na IoT. A existência numa cidade de IoT, sensores interconectados, capacidade de processamento com Megadados e o domínio da tecnologia blockchain, seguramente, irão auxiliar na expansão das cidades denominadas inteligentes e prover maior nível de segurança aos munícipes. Palavras-chave: Blockchain, Cidades inteligentes, Internet das coisas (IoT), Iluminação LED, Megadados, Segurança, Iluminação inteligente, Economia partilhada.
  • ... In addition, there is an increasing demand of customization, being at the same time in a global competition with competitors all over the world. This trend, which is inducing the development from macro to micro markets, results in diminished lot sizes due to augmenting product varieties (high-volume to low-volume production) [1]. To cope with this augmenting variety as well as to be able to identify possible optimization potentials in the existing production system, it is important to have a precise knowledge of the product range and characteristics manufactured and/or assembled in this system. ...
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    Industry 4.0 is a diffuse term describing a wide range of technologies to connect systems and regulate processes based on information generation and analysis. Existing definitions and models to describe functions and properties of Industry 4.0 technologies often focus on production systems and therefore do not provide a framework to describe technologies covering the whole product generation process.We introduce a framework to describe and classify Industry 4.0 technologies, affecting both-production and product development. The proposed framework is intended to serve as a basis of a structured and unified description of existing technologies as well as to distinguish the impacted activities within the product generation process. The basic idea is to couple existing models of cyber-physical production systems with established descriptions of central product development process activities to create a framework describing Industry 4.0 technologies within production and product development.
  • ... Various standard adoption models have been proposed in the last decades, with a relevant one being the Gartner Hype Cycle. These models provide a more structured view on the development of the maturity of an emerging technology, through different phases, namely from technology trigger to mainstream adoption (Dedehayir, Steinert 2016;Gartner Inc. 2018). The Gartner Hype Cycle (curve) combines two attributes (hype level and engineering or business maturity) and adopts five key phases of a technology's life cycle: technology trigger, peak of inflated expectations, trough of disillusionment, slope of enlightenment and plateau of productivity. ...
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    This paper focuses on the development of a taxonomy framework for new and emerging technologies and trends in the transport sector. This framework is proposed towards the assessment and monitoring of the acceptance, impact and diffusion of technologies and trends, together with a scoring system and a front–end visualisation of the outcomes. In this context, an overview of the transport technology hype over the last years and the establishment of future transport technologies and trends is provided. Issues arising from different constraints, including technological and technical, are taken into account, also considering the transport sector’s interconnection with other sectors and potentially related bottlenecks and drawbacks. The paper outcome is a methodological framework for the creation of different taxonomies for new and emerging transport technologies and trends, achieved through the quantitative assessment of the attractiveness and competitiveness, in terms of diffusion potential, of emerging transport technologies and trends, by associating explicit indices to the various elements of the taxonomies. The proposed taxonomy, assessment and monitoring framework supports innovation management through the identification and evaluation of new and emerging technologies and trends in the field of transport at various levels, thus providing insights to the sector’s stakeholders, while backing the current transport systems’ transformation through technological advances. First published online 10 May 2019
  • ... Even if niche developments signal longer term change, to quote the late Roy Amara (past president of the Institute for the Future), "we tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run" (Amara's Law). Gartner's Hype Cycle (Linden and Fenn, 2003;Dedehayir and Steinert, 2016) illustrates well how emerging phenomena can be subject to initially inflated expectations before slipping into the 'trough of disillusionment' as the challenging process of innovation and adoption is negotiated with subsequent progress up the 'slope of enlightenment' to the 'plateau of productivity'. ...
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    The rapid emergence of Mobility as a Service (MaaS) into the transport sector’s lexicon has brought with it an air of expectation that suggests a future mobility revolution. This paper focusses on the user perspective and offers a deepening of socio-technical thinking about MaaS and its prospects. It first provides an examination of what is understood to date about MaaS in what is a new but rapidly evolving body of literature. This highlights the concept of MaaS as a ‘mobility system beyond the private car’ and the new centrality of a ‘mobility intermediary’ layer in that system. The paper then focuses and elaborates upon its contention that MaaS is neither new nor revolutionary but is rather an evolutionary continuation in terms of transport integration. Emerging from an era of unimodal travel information systems becoming multimodal and then integrated multimodal information services, MaaS is now about adding seamless booking, payment and ticketing to the integration offer. The paper puts forward a ‘Levels of MaaS Integration (LMI) taxonomy’ analogous to the level 0–5 SAE taxonomy for automation of road vehicles. This taxonomy, designed around the user perspective (including cognitive user effort), concerns operational, informational and transactional integration that it is suggested reflect a hierarchy of user need. From a synthesis of insights from the ‘pre-MaaS’ literature concerning choice making for travel and the role of information, a MaaS behavioural schema is provided to illustrate potential consideration and adoption of MaaS from the user perspective. In concluding, the paper considers what a user perspective reveals for the future prospects of MaaS and in particular for the mobility intermediaries.
  • ... Interest in this phenomenon peaks at the moments of radical technological shifts. As shown in [2], [3], technology entrepreneurship plays a support role at the growth stages of an innovation's life cycle that is represented by Gartner's hype cycle. ...
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    The liberalization of the energy sector, the spreading adoption of digital information and telecommunication technologies, decentralization, and expansion of RES-based distributed generation provide broader development opportunities for technology entrepreneurship in the industry. Nevertheless, the energy sector remains one of the “least entrepreneurial” industries of the global economy – both by number of corporate innovations and by number of independent startups. Having summarized a corpus of theoretical research and the results of a survey of energy experts, the authors were able to describe fields of applications and key barriers to the development of technology entrepreneurship in the industry and at a corporate level. On the basis of an analysis of the experience of US and British energy companies, the authors propose typical models of technology entrepreneurship and schemes of resource interaction among energy companies, consumers of new products and services, universities, developers and investors in the course of implementation of breakthrough projects. The results of the study and the authors’ recommendations can be used by energy companies creating corporate mechanisms of technology entrepreneurship, as well as by government agencies and universities for the development of the innovation infrastructure of the energy sector.
  • ... This behavior has been depicted in Gartner's Hype Cycles (Fenn et al. 2013) since 1995. It is formed by merging a market expectations equation in the form of a Gaussian bell, and a logistic growth curve revealing technological maturity (Dedehayir and Steinert 2016;Steinert and Leifer 2010). According to this model, technologies start from an innovation trigger, where the initial media interest starts but no real products have been developed from it. ...
    Article
    Full-text available
    While novel technologies have tremendous competitive potential, they also involve certain risks. Maturity assessment analyzes how well a technological development can fulfill an expected task. The technology readiness level (TRL) has been considered to be one of the most promising approaches for addressing technological maturity. Nonetheless, its assessment requires opinions of the experts, which is costly and implies the risk of personal bias. To fill this gap, this paper presents a Bibliometric Method for Assessing Technological Maturity (BIMATEM). It is a repeatable framework that assesses maturity quantitatively. Our method is based on the assumption that each technology life cycle stage can be matched to technology records contained in scientific literature, patents, and news databases. The scientific papers and patent records of mature technologies display a logistic growth behavior, while news records follow a hype-type behavior. BIMATEM determines the maturity level by curve fitting technology records to these behaviors. To test our approach, BIMATEM was applied to additive manufacturing (AM) technologies. Our results revealed that material extrusion, material jetting, powder bed fusion and vat photopolymerization are the most mature AM technologies with TRL between 6 and 7, followed by directed energy deposition with TRL between 4 and 5, and binder jetting and sheet lamination, the least mature, with TRL between 1 and 2. BIMATEM can be used by competitive technology intelligence professionals, policymakers, and further decision makers whose main interests include assessing the risk of implementing new technologies. Future research can focus on testing the method with regard to altmetrics. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1007/s11192-018-2941-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
  • ... Subsequently, we explicitly consider in the present modeling framework the ubiquity of the random environment characterizing the multi-agent dynamics under study. According to [3], the uncertainties affecting the diffusion of innovation originate from the type of customers, the technical feasibility, or the potential of the new technology. In essence, our model helps in tracing the origin of the hype oscillation as being due to a delay mechanism induced by the time required to process and build the economic agents' opinions. ...
    Preprint
    Full-text available
    Hype cycle models are commonly used to quantify the state of development of an innovation, and to guide decision-making in terms of associated strategic investments. The relevance of these models has long been exemplified, in particular by the Gartner hype cycle. While the related literature contains numerous works focusing on the macroscopic description of the emerging hype patterns, very little attention has been paid so far to understanding the individual mechanisms that are creating these global patterns. In this contribution, we introduce a microscopic model that explains the collective emergence of hype cycles, as well as the essential human interactions that lie behind them.
  • ... The core idea of Industry 4.0 can be explained by an increasing networking of machines, products and humans realized by continuous information exchange. According to Gartener's emerging technologies hype cycle, Industry 4.0 technologies have reached the peak of "inflated expectations" in the last three years [1]. This omnipresence of Industry 4.0 technologies leads to a diffuse understanding and manifold definitions of the technologies themselves. ...
  • ... The recurrence of how these fake IoT products get mistaken for real ideas by the public goes some way to show how the outward facing image of the Internet of Things has been severely hampered by premature market-driven entrepreneurship. This is not a new phenomenon by any means, the Gartner Hype Cycle Chart illustrates how numerous technologies have been pushed to the public application stage far too early, thus leading to disillusionment [40,112]. In concert with the other prevalent barriers to adoption that are discussed further on, the IoT faces an uphill struggle to find acceptance in an increasingly complicated socio-technological arena. ...
    Article
    Today’s Internet of Things (IoT) is often employed to connect material artefacts to digital identifiers and a digital record of their history and existence. This has been heralded as a coming together of our material existences and our increasingly-digital lives. Bringing each object that we create, use and cherish into the IoT, is an outwardly appealing prospect. Using material objects is an accepted part of connecting with narratives and our history, and such a technological boon already enables the storytelling opportunities that are supported by rich digital records. However, in everyday life and in the practices that occupy them, people consider and share stories about the things that they feel to be meaningful to them in complex ways which do not necessarily conform to the expectations of the designers and developers who attempt to intervene and support such practices by focusing on the material objects at hand. This thesis draws upon observations from a thorough engagement with the community of practice of the Tabletop Miniature Wargaming pastime, which involves the acknowledged craft and use of objects deemed as meaningful, to reveal that the practitioners, in reality, construct their shared records and narratives around intangible Identities, both singular and collective, which they find to be the actual ‘meaningful things’ of their activities. These findings contravene the conventional emphasis on the material objects, and pose technological and conceptual challenges. Considering these findings through a lens informed by philosophical grounding, the thesis examines the distinctions between ordinary objects and extraordinary things; how things become meaningful; and the interplay between material and abstract things. The culmination of these efforts is the Meaningful Things Framework, which aims to help disambiguate the complex ways by which practitioners create, perceive and treat the meaningful things involved in their activities, and aid designers, developers and the communities themselves in understanding and supporting their practices.
  • ... The Gartner Hype Cycle is a structured, qualitative analytical tool for trend analysis, which is based on surveys and expert judgement [56]. Although Gartner's research has a dominant position in practice, it has received limited attention from academics so far [57,58]. We want to understand the relationship of our results, which are derived from academic sources, with EA in practice. ...
  • ... Policy makers and associated policy decisions may even trigger the emergence of technological hypes, which have received increasing attention by scholars of the sociology of expectations (e.g., Dedehayir and Steinert, 2016;Ruef and Markard, 2010; van Lente et al., 2013). To gain a more thorough understanding of hypes, Ruef and Markard (2010) and van Lente et al. (2013) distinguished between different levels of expectations and suggested that examining the interplay among dynamics at these levels could provide important insights into the evolution of hypes and their actual impacts on technological trajectories. ...
    Article
    Full-text available
    The widespread diffusion of new technologies is often preceded by hypes, that is periods of a strong rise and subsequent fall in collective expectations, which are usually followed by disappointment. In this study, we focused on the multilevel nature of collective technological expectations and analysed the dynamics of expectations about photovoltaic technology in Germany and Spain over the period of 1992-2015 by conducting a media analysis. Our results indicate that a hype and subsequent phase of disappointment with regard to photovoltaic technology occurred in both countries. However, the results also suggest that these, and particularly the phase of disappointment, were associated with different levels of expectations: while the Spanish hype was followed by a period of pessimism with regard to the profitability of the technology, the disappointment in Germany was dominated by the fear that the technology would negatively affect the economy as a whole. Furthermore, the results allow researchers to gain a better understanding of the interactions among technological expectations and policies, and suggest that, in both countries, national policies played a key role in supporting the formation of positive as well as negative expectations.
  • ... Jun (2012) used Google Trends to explain Gartner's hype cycle, claiming that Google Trends can account for the tremendous increase in users' interest and rapid shift to indifference in the process of adopting new technologies (Jun, 2012a;Jun, 2012b). Of course, this phenomenon does not always occur (Dedehayir and Steinert, 2016), and it is clear that overcoming the irrational aspect of search activity is an issue that must not be overlooked when expanding the use of Google Trends. Even when analyzing information provided by Google Trends, to obtain a clearer understanding of the intention of utilization, we will also need to be analyzed other social big data as mentioned above (Lazer et al., 2014). ...
    Article
    Full-text available
    This study seeks to analyze the trends in research studies in the past decade which have utilized Google Trends, a new source of big data, to examine how the scope of research has expanded. Our purpose is to conduct a comprehensive and objective research into how the public use of Big Data from web searches has affected research, and furthermore, to discuss the implications of Google Trends in terms of Big Data utilization and application. To this end, we conducted a network analysis on 657 research papers that used Google Trends. We also identified the important nodes of the networks and reviewed the research directions of representative papers. The study reveals that Google Trends is used to analyze various variables in a wide range of areas, including IT, communications, medicine, health, business and economics. In addition, this study shows that research using Google Trends has increased dramatically in the last decade, and in the process, the focus of research has shifted to forecasting changes, whereas in the past the focus had been on merely describing and diagnosing research trends, such as surveillance and monitoring. This study also demonstrates that in recent years, there has been an expansion in analysis in linkage with other social Big Data sources, as researchers attempt to overcome the limitations of using only search information. Our study will provide various insights for researchers who utilize Google Trends as well as researchers who rely on various other sources of Big Data in their efforts to compare research trends and identify new areas for research.
  • ... 219). However, understanding and predicting the evolution of such emerging technologies is a challenge for new entrants as well as for incumbents (Dedehayir & Steinert, 2016). In any case, actors have to deal with it, prepared or not. ...
    Article
    Full-text available
    Undoubtedly there is hype around drones and their applications for private and professional users. Based on a brief overview of the development of the drone industry in recent years, this article analyses on the one hand the co-evolution of the drone technology, and on the other hand the entrepreneurial activity linked with the drone evolution. Our results link the industry emergence described as concept validation, product as well as market growth with different phases of technological meaning change. We argue that further steps are needed to develop drones from nice toys to professional tools: from photography and filming applications to inspection services and large cargo logistics. We show to innovation managers and entrepreneurs a sequence that triggers the emergence of a technology and attracts the needed actors to unleash its transformative potential. The research is based on industry reports, news, market studies as well as interviews with four industry actors.
  • ... The concept of emerging scholarship continues to mature in higher education; and it seems possible that we can build developmental models to illuminate the specific challenges and opportunities inherent in the different phases of that development, from beginning to middle to end. It is tempting to propose the Gartner hype cycle, a popular (and branded) means for graphically representing the stages of technology adoption, as a conceptual model or metaphor (Dedehayir & Steinert, 2016;Linden & Fenn, 2003). The results of the survey suggest that WCU has moved beyond Gartner's peak of inflated expectations, wallowed in the trough of disillusionment, and is now in the process of clawing its way up to the plateau of productivity, which, as in the cycle, moves thinking from innovation to sustained and sustainable practice, that is, institutionalization. ...
    Article
    This article reports on an examination of the distinctive second-generation challenges and opportunities faced by an early institutional adopter of the Boyer model of scholarship. Following the first cohort of faculty to be reviewed for tenure and promotion based on these criteria, we report the results of a survey designed to determine the perceptions of faculty and administrators of the degree to which emerging forms of scholarship had been integrated into the university culture including factors such as institutional identity, support structures, and faculty participation. This case study sheds light on the process of adaptation at this single institution and provides glimpses of how cultural change might occur across higher education.
  • ... While the hype cycle received great attention in business consultancy, it still lacks academic recognition. According to Dedehayir and Steinert (2016), only eleven papers in the top twelve technology and innovation management (TIM) journals have dealt with the hype cycle in sufficient depth in order to test its validity. They conclude that hyped dynamics should be captured by existing life cycle models on the order of Rogers's (2003). ...
  • ... Instead of forcing analysts to reduce what is known about a highly uncertain parameter to a single value, and producing a single-point estimate, the use of a Monte Carlo technique in LCA allows for a better representation of the uncertainties of the model parameters.This way, the information pertaining to the uncertainties of the LCA model are not lost and are reflected in the results of the analysis to better inform decision making.It appears that the policy push for biofuels, particularly in the EU, are slowly declining.The biofuels hype, which began in the mid-2000, had peaked around the year 2008 and the interests began to wane thereafter with the emergence of scientific reports documenting the risks that biofuels pose to global land use, food accessibility and global habitat loss. The biofuels hype-disillusionment cycle, as described byGeels (2012) [59],Dedehayir & Steinert (2016) [60] andMelton et al. (2016) ...
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    Full-text available
    Biodiesel expansion can lead to unintended effects that offset the direct GHG benefits of biofuels. Two documented unintended effects are the indirect land use change (ILUC) and indirect energy use change (IEUC). ILUC has been included in many lifecycle GHG studies of biofuels, but IEUC has remained relatively elusive. This paper presents an updated assessment of the lifecycle GHG emissions of palm biodiesel from Malaysia and, for the first time, incorporating the two estimated indirect effects simultaneously. Future GHG emissions of palm biodiesel are projected by taking into account of Malaysia's Economic Transformation Programme (ETP) that aims to reform the oil palm industry in order to achieve a high-income nation. Uncertainties associated with lifecycle GHG models were dealt with using Monte Carlo simulation in order to identify the breadth and likelihood of GHG reductions relative to petroleum-based fuels in the context of the European directives. This study has shown that the ETP, if successfully implemented, can significantly improve the direct GHG emissions of palm biodiesel, but the benefits are offset by the rise in global emissions due to ILUC and IEUC. Biofuel policies should also include IEUC, in addition to ILUC, to avoid GHG emissions leakages.
  • ... In both the academic and the business worlds, the concept of hype is commonly used to determine the evolution and maturity level of a newly introduced technology [3]. A general framework was presented in [18] to model social "bubbles" and their aftermath as the consequence of collective over-enthusiasm. ...
    Preprint
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    We propose a microscopic model to describe how individual opinions shared between interacting agents initiate excessive collective expectations about a new idea or an innovation, followed by a swift collapse towards a dramatic collective disillusionment. The basic assumption which underlies the dynamics is that the information gathering process is not instantaneous but requires maturation. Agents steadily refine and update their personal opinion via a recurrent consultation of a public pool which stores information tokens (ITs). The expectation for the innovative idea is monitored in real-time by counting the number of stored ITs. The flow dynamics of ITs is assimilated to a single node queuing system (QS) with feedback loop. It incorporates the information pool (the waiting room), an IT inflow, and a service outflow that stylizes the information gathering process. Contrary to basic queuing theory, here the ITs roaming the QS are endowed with time-dependent internal variables. This additional dynamic information is used to construct the information maturation process. Such a maturation of the information introduces response delays into the dynamics, which ultimately generates the collective disillusionment trough. We illustrate the introduced generic modeling framework by considering in details the hype cycle dynamics, a key managerial topic when dealing with diffusion of innovation. In a second part of the paper, we introduce a stylized framework to detect, as soon as possible, the onset of the collective disillusionment phase, while minimizing the frequency of false alarms.
  • ... However, some authors have also suggested that the current hype for drones could lead to false expectations and that the drone delivery concept may not pass the economic viability test. According to the Gartner hype cycle [25], drones spanned the "peak of inflated expectations" in just 1 year, and in 2017, they were about to enter the "trough of disillusionment" [26]. ...
    Article
    Full-text available
    Rapid technological developments in autonomous unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV or drones) and an evolving legislation may soon open the way for their large-scale implementation in the last mile delivery of products. The use of drones could drastically decrease labour costs and has been hyped as a potential disruptor to the parcel delivery industry. Online retailers and delivery companies such as Amazon, are already filing up patents for the development of multi-level fulfilment centres for unmanned aerial vehicles or “drone-beehives” that would allow the deployment of this technology within built environment. A substantial amount of research has been carried out in the last years on the potential use of drones for parcel delivery, principally in the area of logistic optimisation. However, little is known about the potential market and economic viability of such services in Europe. This paper presents a modelling framework using EU-wide high-resolution population and land-use data to estimate the potential optimal location of drone-beehives based on economic viability criterion. It estimates the potential number of EU28 citizens that could potentially benefit from last mile-drone delivery services under four scenarios. The performed analyses indicates that under the scenario considered as the most technologically realistic, up to 7% of EU citizens could get access to such services. When considering technological improvements scenarios, the share reaches 30%. Furthermore, results suggest that due to the differences in population and land-use patterns in the different Member States, the potential drone coverage across Europe could be very heterogeneous, with the UK, Germany, Italy and France appearing as the most likely countries where drone-beehives may have the most efficient development.
  • ... The public has become both fascinated and concerned with how such data are used in assessment as the industry expands with significant speed, far beyond the speed of academic research and also often beyond the understanding of the ostensibly responsible practitioners. This pattern of rapid invention and deployment is a common and understandable one for technologists (i.e., Gartner's hype cycle; Dedehayir & Steinert, 2016) but is less commonly understood in the world of talent assessment. ...
  • ... The future technological stages are then predicted upon the estimation line. The limitations of normative methods suggested in more recent years include incongruencies found from the Gartner dataset and its hype cycle [10] and less generalizability for different technology fields. This indicates that both the manual and extrapolation methods lack the ability to be implemented in related technological fields [11]. ...
  • ... Even if the idea behind an eHealth application is sound, the adoption of the application into daily practice may be challenging [30]. Uptake of an eHealth application often follows the so-called 'hype cycle' [31], in which adoption is propelled by an innovation trigger, reaching a peak of use, which is then transformed into a descent of disillusionment as implementation challenges become apparent. During disillusionment, a slope of enlightenment can be activated if an eHealth application is refined by stakeholder feedback. ...
    Article
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    KEY MESSAGES eHealth should support the transition towards personalized medicine, self-management and shared decisions in primary care. Several conditions need to be met to ensure that eHealth applications are safe, evidence-based and of high quality. Innovative but valid research methodology—e.g. adaptive (action research) designs—is a prerequisite for ongoing success and sustainability of eHealth. Primary care is challenged to provide high quality, accessible and affordable care for an increasingly ageing, complex, and multimorbid population. To counter these challenges, primary care professionals need to take up new and innovative practices, including eHealth. eHealth applications hold the promise to overcome some difficulties encountered in the care of people with complex medical and social needs in primary care. However, many unanswered questions regarding (cost) effectiveness, integration with healthcare, and acceptability to patients, caregivers, and professionals remain to be elucidated. What conditions need to be met? What challenges need to be overcome? What downsides must be dealt with? This first paper in a series on eHealth in primary care introduces basic concepts and examines opportunities for the uptake of eHealth in primary care. We illustrate that although the potential of eHealth in primary care is high, several conditions need to be met to ensure that safe and high-quality eHealth is developed for and implemented in primary care. eHealth research needs to be optimized; ensuring evidence-based eHealth is available. Blended care, i.e. combining face-to-face care with remote options, personalized to the individual patient should be considered. Stakeholders need to be involved in the development and implementation of eHealth via co-creation processes, and design should be mindful of vulnerable groups and eHealth illiteracy. Furthermore, a global perspective on eHealth should be adopted, and eHealth ethics, patients’ safety and privacy considered.
  • ... Modeling the evolution of AI Finally, firms need to develop realistic expectations, because "in the short run, AI will provide evolutionary benefits; in the long run, it is likely to be revolutionary" (Davenport 2018, p. 7). That is, the benefits of AI could be overestimated in the short term but underestimated in the long term, a point (sometimes called Amara's Law) in accordance with Gartner's hype cycle model of how new technologies evolve (Dedehayir and Steinert 2016; also see van Lente et al. 2013;Shankar 2018). This view is popular among practitioners, according to our personal discussions and interviews with various senior managers. ...
    Article
    Full-text available
    In the future, artificial intelligence (AI) is likely to substantially change both marketing strategies and customer behaviors. Building from not only extant research but also extensive interactions with practice, the authors propose a multidimensional framework for understanding the impact of AI involving intelligence levels, task types, and whether AI is embedded in a robot. Prior research typically addresses a subset of these dimensions; this paper integrates all three into a single framework. Next, the authors propose a research agenda that addresses not only how marketing strategies and customer behaviors will change in the future, but also highlights important policy questions relating to privacy, bias and ethics. Finally, the authors suggest AI will be more effective if it augments (rather than replaces) human managers.
  • ... [9][10][11] Both technologies need much technical development, addressing questions of privacy, safety, and ethical issues. 7 Gartner's Hype cycle model 12 shows that these technolo gies, envisioned as a possible threat to pharmacists, are more than 10 years from their maturity, residing on the "Peak of inflated expectations", still having to go through the "Trough of disillusionment". [12][13][14] Another diffusion of innovations models, such as the one developed by Greenhalgh et al., 15 identify several characteristics that need to be present for an innovation to be successfully disseminated. ...
    Article
    Full-text available
    The future of community pharmacy has always been a matter of concern for academics and practitioners alike. Recently, a paper published in this Journal brought to the discussion the importance of new technologies, such as Artificial Intelligence and Blockchain, and the emergence of market forces like Amazon or Google, to the future of the pharmacy profession. In this commentary, we offer our view about the subject, specifically focusing in the practice area of Community Pharmacy. Our choice takes into account the fact that this by far the most numerous group within the profession, and where the fear of redundancy has always been looming since the start of the Industrial Revolution. Envisioned technologies will become a reality, but by now are not mature enough to be the disrupters everyone expects. Moreover, without major shifts in the legal environment regulating the organization of health care and the provision of medicines, big players will find it difficult to substitute pharmacies. As for pharmacists, they have always adapted to the challenges presented by technological revolutions. We argue that for the coming Patient Centred era, it is more important to continue to focus on the sustainability of an enhanced role for community pharmacists, providing services that highlight pharmacists' social role, measuring outcomes, and managing populations’ health.
  • ... To avoid falling into the rhetoric surrounding what authors have called "the hype cycles" or "technological hyped dynamics" (Alvial-Palavicino and Konrad 2019;Dedehayir and Steinert 2016), understood as the sequential appearance of periods of hype, disappointment, and recovery in the life of new technologies, technological, and scientific fields or techno-social projects (Borup, Brown, and Konrad 2006;Van Lente, Spitters, and Peine 2013), the article will not analyze Yachay under the rhetoric of the successfailure spectrum. 4 Instead, it will analyze the uses and the effects of expectations in two different moments during its development. ...
    Article
    Full-text available
    This paper explores the temporalities of infrastructuring, breakdown, and repair/disrepair interacting generatively – materially and symbolically – in “Yachay, the city of knowledge,” the most ambitious and controversial public infrastructural project in Ecuador’s history. I analyze the roles of expectations, and the infrastructural dynamics in the process of shaping Yachay during its intragovernmental scaling-up from a technical university to a city of knowledge; and during the material implementation of some of its basic physical infrastructure. I also highlight the embeddedness of the expectations in particular pasts and historical trajectories, thus extending the common use of expectations as only oriented to the future. The argument presented here draws on fieldwork conducted in Yachay for 14 months between 2016 and 2018.
  • ... Even if niche developments signal longer term change, to quote the late Roy Amara (past president of the Institute for the Future), "we tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run" (Amara's Law). Gartner's Hype Cycle (Linden and Fenn, 2003;Dedehayir and Steinert, 2016) illustrates well how emerging phenomena can be subject to initially inflated expectations before slipping into the 'trough of disillusionment' as the challenging process of innovation and adoption is negotiated with subsequent progress up the 'slope of enlightenment' to the 'plateau of productivity'. ...
    Article
    Full-text available
    The rapid emergence of Mobility as a Service (MaaS) into the transport sector’s lexicon has brought with it an air of expectation that suggests a future mobility revolution. This paper focusses on the user perspective and offers a deepening of socio-technical thinking about MaaS and its prospects. It first provides an examination of what is understood to date about MaaS in what is a new but rapidly evolving body of literature. This highlights the concept of MaaS as a ‘mobility system beyond the private car’ and the new centrality of a ‘mobility intermediary’ layer in that system. The paper then focuses and elaborates upon its contention that MaaS is neither new nor revolutionary but is rather an evolutionary continuation in terms of transport integration. Emerging from an era of unimodal travel information systems becoming multimodal and then integrated multimodal information services, MaaS is now about adding seamless booking, payment and ticketing to the integration offer. The paper puts forward a ‘Levels of MaaS Integration (LMI) taxonomy’ analogous to the level 0–5 SAE taxonomy for automation of road vehicles. This taxonomy, designed around the user perspective (including cognitive user effort), concerns operational, information and transactional integration that it is suggested reflect a hierarchy of user need. From a synthesis of insights from the ‘pre-MaaS’ literature concerning choice making for travel and the role of information, a MaaS behavioural schema is provided to illustrate potential consideration and adoption of MaaS from the user perspective. In concluding, the paper considers what a user perspective reveals for the future prospects of MaaS and in particular for the mobility intermediaries.
  • ... Industry has used the Gartner hype cycle for some 20 years [12,13]. While Gartner's hype cycle is undoubtedly industry-focused, several leading journals in the technology and management and accounting information systems disciplines look to the hype cycle to identify both the emergence of new technologies and future research opportunities (e.g., [13,14,47,48]). In accounting research, the strategic and emerging technology stream uses the Gartner hype cycle to identify strategic issues and research. Typically, researchers are interested in investigating the technology when it is at the peak of inflated expectations. ...
    Article
    Various arguments for and against distributed ledger technology (DLT) appear in the media. By analyzing DLT-related online English news articles from 2010 to 2018, first, we use organizing visions to investigate DLT’s history of evolving and expanding. Second, following the Gartner hype cycle stages, we observe how DLT may offer ripe opportunities for future inquiry. We found DLT’s diffusion was characterized by competing arguments. While DLT was initially viewed as somewhat questionable, communities collectively have (re)interpreted it favorably. DLT provides researchers with opportunities warranting further development in the information systems field.
  • ... Given the relative novelty of blockchain technology, and it currently being on the downslope of Gartner 'Hype' cycle (Dedehayir and Steinert 2016), we assume that each decision maker is pessimistic -other situations are studied in the sensitivity analysis section of this paper. ...
    Article
    Blockchain technology is a technology that can effectively support supply chain transparency. An important initial managerial activity is for organisations in supply chains to evaluate and select the most suitable blockchain technology. However, uncertainty and emphasis on sustainable transparency has made this appraisal more complex. This paper: (1) introduces blockchain technology performance measures incorporating various sustainable supply chain transparency and technical attributes; and (2) introduces a new hybrid group decision method, integrated hesitant fuzzy set and regret theory, for blockchain technology evaluation and selection. This method emphasises decision maker psychological characteristics and variation in decision maker opinions. An illustrative application and sensitivity analysis is introduced to aid supply chain managers and researchers understand the blockchain technology selection decision. Methodological and managerial implications associated with the decision tool and application are introduced. This research sets the foundation for significant future research in blockchain technologies evaluation in a supply chain environment.
  • ... In both the academic and the business worlds, the concept of hype is commonly used to determine the evolution and maturity level of a newly introduced technology [3]. A general framework was presented in [18] to model social "bubbles" and their aftermath as the consequence of collective over-enthusiasm. ...
  • ... 2 Recent research has shed light on the theoretical and empirical inconsistencies in the literature around hype (Dedehayir & Steinert, 2016). 3 The technical challenges for the storage of hydrogen gas also raised concerns regarding the infrastructure required in the form of hydrogen gas stations. ...
    Article
    Emerging technologies are an important driver of economic growth. However, the process of their emergence may not only be characterized by technological progress but also by setbacks. We offer a perspective on technology emergence that explicitly incorporates setbacks into the technology's evolution and explains how industry participants may react to setbacks in emerging technologies. We consider that the locus of innovation in an emerging technology encompasses different types of organizations (industry incumbents, entrants and public research organizations (PROs)) who operate in different institutional environments, and explore how these organizations react to setbacks in terms of their R&D efforts. We study two emerging biotechnologies in the global pharmaceutical industry - gene therapy (GT) and monoclonal antibodies (mAbs). The emergence of both technologies during the 1990s was punctuated by periods of setbacks. We observe a gradual increase in industry participants' R&D efforts during periods of progress and a significant decline in those efforts immediately following setbacks. The decline in R&D efforts was more pronounced for firms than for PROs as well as for those firms that were listed on the stock market in contrast to those that were privately financed. Finally, the decline in R&D efforts towards GT was much more pronounced for those organizations located in countries with high capital fluidity. These findings reinforce that organizational and institutional characteristics that are typically attributed to facilitate R&D efforts towards emerging technologies do induce greater levels of those efforts during periods of progress. However, the same characteristics are also associated with a significant decline in R&D efforts immediately following periods of setbacks. Overall, the study illustrates how setbacks reconfigure the locus of innovation in emerging technologies and offers a richer perspective on technology emergence as one that is rooted in both progress and setbacks. In so doing, it highlights the challenges of sustaining technological progress and offers guidance for policy.
  • ... Various standard adoption models have been proposed in the last decades that try to provide a more structured view on the development of the maturity of emerging technologies through their various phases, ranging from technology trigger to mainstream adoption [16]. However, unforeseen events can change existing trends and influence socio-economic cycles [17], thus, innovation adoption in general. ...
    Article
    Full-text available
    Transport contributes significantly to economic growth and higher quality of life, but its associated externalities have an environmental, economic and social impact and are the main impetus to support innovation towards sustainable transport. The European Commission's Communication on a European Green Deal sets out the objective of achieving climate neutrality by 2050, for which transport emissions will need to be further reduced. Innovation within the transport sector gains greater prominence, with some anticipating an innovation revolution that would completely transform the sector. In this paper, the barriers that impede such a transition from happening are examined and a tool that aids policymakers and researchers with shaping transport innovation actions is presented; The Transport Research and Innovation Monitoring and Information System (TRIMIS) is an integrated transport policy-support tool with a modular design serving as an open-access information and knowledge management system. This paper provides an overview of its main features and includes a case study on transport electrification and alternative fuels, showing how monitoring efforts can aid transport research and innovation (R&I) policymaking and governance. TRIMIS contributes to identifying evolutionary and revolutionary technologies, their funding and associated policy initiatives, so the anticipated transport revolution can be better monitored, evaluated and shaped.
  • Article
    The technology readiness level (TRL) scale was developed at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in the 1970s as a standardized technology maturity assessment tool for use in complex system development. Today, TRL assessments are used to make multimillion‐dollar decisions at NASA and beyond, yet anecdotal evidence suggests that there are challenges associated with TRL use in practice. In this paper, we systematically uncover the practitioners' view, first via 19 interviews with employees from seven organizations. We identify 15 challenges of TRL implementations in three categories: system complexity, planning and review, and validity of assessment. Next, we prioritize these challenges via a survey of TRL practitioners, using a best‐worst choice experiment. Finally, we identify best practices and proposed extensions to address the challenges. We find that system complexity challenges are most critical to TRL users, despite being addressed in the literature. We posit that addressing these opportunities could result in substantial improvements to decision processes and outcomes in complex engineering projects.
  • Article
    Technology hype is an important concept in business, marketing, and science and technology studies, but it is rarely related to security studies. What is technology hype? How does it relate to national security? And to what effect? This article examines rational and performative perspectives on technology hype as either a kind of exaggeration or expectant discourse. Adopting the latter view, I compare and contrast hype cycles with threat inflation and securitization theory. I then sketch my own theoretical propositions about technology hype as being common in national security, with variable degrees of acceptance, familiar content, and significant consequences. A case study on quantum technologies provides proof of concept. I find ample evidence of hype over quantum computers, communications, and sensors; audience acceptance in the national security community varies with familiarity; and consequential decisions appear to follow. While cyclical expectations suggest the need for caution when citing quantum technologies in support of quantum approaches to international relations, a middle-range theory about technology hype provides useful insight into security practice.
  • Conference Paper
    Full-text available
    La conferencia presenta temas relacionados con: Hypecycle Resultados de curvas en S en tecnologías en Agroindustria Características de tecnologías emergentes Cuatro casos de aplicación de Hypecycle en tecnologías emergentes en Agroindustria Aplicación del método Delphi en dos rondas en facultades de Ingeniería Agroindustrial Resultado de la consulta a expertos Temas prioritarios de la Ingeniería Agroindustrial a 2035 Nuevos temas propuestos por expertos Aprendizaje y conclusiones
  • Chapter
    A plethora of practical suggestions could be considered to make pedagogy smarter, more active, and attractive to students while simultaneously being efficient and obtaining results. Creative suggestions are not always innovative. In order to achieve innovation, an interesting method is proposed by Jean-Charles Cailliez and described here, consisting of four main steps: (i) following the path indicated by Boethius and Thomas Aquinas in the Middle Ages to acquire a mens ingeniosa, a kind of creative imagination resulting in inspiration, properly obtained from a few conditions and possibilities, restricted by appropriate observations, and underpinned by correct prospections; (ii) insight and enlightenment for the ideation of creativity will be greatly facilitated by co-design within a team; (iii) after the ideation, generated by inspiration, then comes the time for implementation, that is, creating prototypes of projects in an interactive manner and generating pedagogical actions capable of being tested by experimentation; and (iv) innovation, when the idea materializes itself and may be carried out and be useful. Nevertheless, innovation requires steps of its own, such as incubation, creation of a pilot project, testing, acquiring value, and devising possible uses. For any hypothetical use of an idea, creativity indicates when, how, and in which contexts we should use it. Next, we must design an experiment in order to know how efficient of a pedagogical strategy it is and, eventually, have such resource available for specific, didactic goals. Pedagogy should not be centered only on unique and exclusive resources, but ensure an articulated relationship with other resources. A final discussion is proposed considering whether a smart pedagogy will require smart technologies, with some indications about the importance of the role of advanced technologies, such as artificial intelligence, in such innovation scenarios.
  • Chapter
    Full-text available
    The aim of this study is to gain insight into how digital three-dimensional worlds generate new ways of (1) studying literary genres, (2) “prosuming” literary story-events, and (3) supporting the learning of literary competencies. In a virtual world, the frontiers between the factual and the fictional are replaced and blurred in similar ways as in fictional literature, though the sensation of reality is enhanced, since the medium allows for intense interaction, where the technology and the human body are involved. Contents and interactions in the virtual world Second Life are explored through the lenses of literature, in order to observe how literary components play out in the environment. The methodology is inspired by ethnography, and comprises methods of immersed engagement and observations, as well as visual and textual snapshot documentations in-world. The results offer perspectives on affordances and hinders for integrating virtual worlds in learning and literature studies.
  • Article
    There has been speculation for some time that unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) are poised to revolutionize military land operations. These expectations have amplified with recent developments, not least the reported deployment and testing of Russian weaponized UGVs in Syria. Yet when it comes to the operational use of mobile ground-based robots – armed or otherwise – the recent history of the technology can be described as one of promise so far unfulfilled. By tracing past and present efforts to develop and field UGVs – and the enduring challenges that lie therein – this article attempts to gauge the likely impact of such systems in future conflict, as well as their effect on international security more broadly. The article concludes that although UGVs will almost certainly become a major – if not indispensable – feature of future military land operations, they will, similar to other promising militarily relevant technologies before them, continue to produce unrealistic expectations about their impending revolutionary effect.
  • Mastering the Hype Cycle: How to Choose the Right Innovation at the Right Time
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    Fenn, J., Raskino, M., 2008. Mastering the Hype Cycle: How to Choose the Right Innovation at the Right Time. Harvard Business School Press.
  • Foundations of the Economics of Innovation -Theory, Measurement and Practice
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    Grupp, H., 1998. Foundations of the Economics of Innovation -Theory, Measurement and Practice. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham/Northampton.
  • Understanding Gartner's Hype Cycles
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    Fenn, J., 2007. Understanding Gartner's Hype Cycles (May 2007).
  • Hype Cycle for Utility Technology
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    Moore, C., Steenstrup, K., Elliot, B., Scholl, R.S., Young, A., 2003. Hype Cycle for Utility Technology. Gartner.
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    Collins, F., 2010. A Genome Story: 10th Anniversary Commentary by Francis Collins. Sci. Am. ((http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/2010/06/25/a-genome-story-10th-anniversary-commentary-by-francis-collins/), accessed 24 Feb. 2015).
  • His research aims to uncover, understand and leverage early stage engineering design paradigms with a special focus on human-machine/object interactions. He has published in Tech. Forecasting and Social Change
    • Dr
    • Martin
    Dr. Martin Steinert is a Professor of Eng. Design and Innovation at the Department of Eng. Design and Materials at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU). His research aims to uncover, understand and leverage early stage engineering design paradigms with a special focus on human-machine/object interactions. He has published in Tech. Forecasting and Social Change, Int. Journal of Product Development, Int. Journal of Design Creativity and Innovation, Journal of Eng. Design and Technology, Int. Journal of Design, Int. Journal of Eng. Education, Energy Policy, and Information Knowledge System Management Journal.
  • Hype Cycle for Utility Industry Operational and Energy Technologies
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    • K Harrison
    • K Steenstrup
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    Sumic, Z., Moore, C., Williams, B., Harrison, K., Steenstrup, K., Vining, J., 2008. Hype Cycle for Utility Industry Operational and Energy Technologies. Gartner (2008).
  • Chapter
    Investments in R&D are always precarious, because both the technological and even more the commercial success are not certain. On the other hand, not investing in R&D involves the risk of a complete failure of an enterprise. There is a great need to develop tools for strategic R&D management. One of the difficult problems of R&D planning is the question, under which circumstances the results of basic research are needed and, if so, how are they successfully transferred into a broader technical application. In order to work on these particular problems, both the previous and this chapter describe the knowledge interface between science and technology by bibliometric and patent indicators, wherein the bibliometric studies were presented in chapter 8 and the patent analysis in this chapter (for a more detailed treatment of methods and results see Grupp, Reiss & Schmoch (1990); a methodological stand-alone version not referring to the other chapters of this volume has been published by Schmoch (1991)).
  • Article
    The procedures and the nature of “technologies” are suggested to be broadly similar to those which characterize “science”. In particular, there appear to be “technological paradigms” (or research programmes) performing a similar role to “scientific paradigms” (or research programmes). The model tries to account for both continuous changes and discontinuities in technological innovation. Continuous changes are often related to progress along a technological trajectory defined by a technological paradigm, while discontinuities are associated with the emergence of a new paradigm. One-directional explanations of the innovative process, and in particular those assuming “the market” as the prime mover, are inadequate to explain the emergence of new technological paradigms. The origin of the latter stems from the interplay between scientific advances, economic factors, institutional variables, and unsolved difficulties on established technological paths. The model tries to establish a sufficiently general framework which accounts for all these factors and to define the process of selection of new technological paradigms among a greater set of notionally possible ones.
  • Article
    Various types of indices have been developed and applied for the purpose of identifying emergent technologies and forecasting their adoption. Recently, researchers have proposed search traffic analysis as a new method for tracking changes among consumers and utilizing this information to conduct further market research. Now with the onset of big data era, various attempts are being made to analyze the immense body of information made available by hidden traces left behind by consumers. In the same vein, our present study seeks to draw attention to the analytical advantages of utilizing search traffic. In this study, we use search traffic to analyze the adoption process of a new technology, in this case the technology of hybrid cars, for the purpose of verifying the potential value of conducting adoption analysis based on search traffic and we also propose a more refined method of analysis. First, we undertook to examine the keyword unit used in the searches, in order to refine our analysis of search traffic and thereby obtain greater practical utility. This was accomplished by comparing technology searches that specified the technology name with searches that specified the brand name. For each respective case, we also performed comparative analyses examining instances in which consumers simultaneously included the representative attributes of a product in their search.
  • Article
    Full-text available
    Many forms of technology cycle models have been developed and utilized to identify new/convergent technologies and forecast social changes, and among these, the technology hype cycle introduced by Gartner has become established as an effective method that is widely utilized in the field. Despite the popularity of this commonly deployed model, however, the currently existing research literature fails to provide sufficient consideration of its theoretical frame or its empirical verification. This paper presents a new method for the empirical measurement of this hype cycle model. In particular, it presents a method for measuring the hype of the users rather than the hype cycle generated by research activities or by the media by means of analyzing the hype cycle using search traffic analysis. The analytical results derived from the case study of hybrid automobiles empirically demonstrated that following the introductory stage and the early growth stage of the life cycle, the positive hype curve and the negative hype curve, the representative figures of the hype cycle, were present in the bell curve for the users’ search behavior. Based on this finding, this paper proposes a new method for measuring the users’ expectation and suggests a new direction for future research that enables the forecasting of promising technologies and technological opportunities in linkage with the conventional technology life cycle model. In particular, by interpreting the empirical results using the consumer behavior model and the adoption model, this study empirically demonstrates that the characteristics of each user category can be identified through differences in the hype cycle in the process of the diffusion of new technological products discussed in the past.
  • Article
    This editorial considers the impact of technology innovation management journals in relation to the Financial Times 45 (FT 45). In doing so the often over looked importance of technology innovation management is illustrated. A thank you is also offered to our reviewers for 2011 and early 2012. This is critical as our reviewers are the foundation – unseen but critically important – to the journal's contribution to Technology Innovation Management.
  • Article
    Many forms of technology cycle models have been developed and utilized to identify emergent technologies and forecast social changes, and among these, the technology hype cycle introduced by Gartner has become established as an effective method widely utilized in the field. However, if the hype cycle indeed exists in the various dimensions that constitute the socio-technical system, those who seek to analyze innovative activities using bibliometrics will be confronted with the new problem of actors' choices and the need to analyze their hype cycles. In seeking to overcome such limitations of conventional studies, this paper analyzes the hype cycles of three actors that constitute the core of the socio-technical system through the case study of the successful market entry of hybrid cars. The hype cycle of the user, the first actor, is analyzed based on the search traffic generated by their web searches, and the hype cycle of the producer or researcher, the second actor, is measured based on the data regarding patent applications. Lastly, the hype cycle of the information distributor, namely individuals constituting the market network, is analyzed by examining the exposure in news reports. The outcomes of this research showed that among the three actors, the consumers and the information distributors exhibited hype cycle patterns (bell curves) that were distinct from the market trend, and that there was a difference in time interval of around five quarters. By contrast, it was found that the hype cycle of the producers reflected a logical response, exhibiting a pattern similar to the S-curve during the market's growth period unlike the pattern found in other actors. In conclusion, this study of the particular case of hybrid cars confirmed that the two components of the hype cycle can be respectively verified using consumer search traffic and the patent applications made by the producers. If in the future, such analyses of the hype cycles of producers and consumers are expanded in application to various other industries, it will be possible to obtain more generalizable research outcomes. This is expected to contribute to determining technological life cycles or hype cycles with greater objectivity and efficacy, and furthermore to facilitate the systematic identification of promising technologies.
  • Article
    Within strategic technology management and innovation, often stakeholders extrapolate past industry dynamics, trends and patterns into the future. One frequently used concept is that of ‘lifecycles’ — an analogy of a sequence of stages encountered by living organisms. Lifecycle terms – such as technology, product, industry – are frequently used interchangeably and without clear definition. Within the interdisciplinary context of technology management and forecasting, this juxtaposition of dynamics can create confusion rather than simplification.This paper explores some of the dynamics typically associated with technology-based industries, illustrated with data from the early US automotive industry. A wide range of dimensions are seen to have potential to influence the path of industry development, and technology roadmapping architecture is used to present a simplified visualisation of some of these. Stakeholders need to consider the units of analysis, causality and synchronicity of relevant different dynamics, rather than isolated lifecycles.Some graphical curves represent simple aggregation of components; other dynamics have significant impact, but incur time lags, rather than being superimposed. To optimise alignment of the important dimensions within any technology development, and for future strategy decisions, understanding these interactions is critical.
  • Article
    Full-text available
    To estimate the future development of one technology and make decisions whether to invest in it or not, one needs to know the current stage of its technology life cycle (TLC). The dominant approach to analysing TLC uses the S-curve to observe patent applications over time. But using the patent application counts alone to represent the development of technology oversimplifies the situation. In this paper, we build a model to calculate the TLC for an object technology based on multiple patent-related indicators. The model includes the following steps: first, we focus on devising and assessing patent-based TLC indicators. Then we choose some technologies (training technologies) with identified life cycle stages, and finally compare the indicator features in training technologies with the indicator values in an object technology (test technology) using a nearest neighbour classifier, which is widely used in pattern recognition to measure the technology life cycle stage of the object technology. Such study can be used in management practice to enable technology observers to determine the current life cycle stage of a particular technology of interest and make their R&D strategy accordingly.
  • Article
    This innovation assessment addresses the factors that have influenced the exceptionally lengthy industrial technology life cycle of wind electrical power generation since its inception in the late 19th Century. It then applies the recently developed Accelerated Radical Innovation (ARI) Model to understand the dynamics of this innovation compared to those of other major 18th–20th Century innovations.Despite market pull in the late 19th Century to link small DC electrical generators with hundreds of thousands of existing wind mills used for mechanical water pumping, several factors prevented this from happening. These include the intermittent nature of wind electrical generation requiring low cost battery storage and DC–AC conversion, and the shift in the 1890s from DC to superior AC electrical generation making possible economies of scale for delivering AC electricity long distances over the grid from large hydroelectric and coal fired plants. As a consequence, wind generated electricity remained primarily a technological development until the first energy crisis in the 1970s.Development of an extensive science and technology base for wind turbine dynamics, and deployment since 2000 of commercial scale wind turbines (> 1MW) have elevated wind electrical power generation to commercial practicality, as described in two earlier papers by the authors applying technical cost modeling and experience curve projections of cost of energy (COE) to explore the economic viability of large scale wind electricity generation.. Strongly promoted by wind energy communities of practice in Europe, North America and Asia, normative COE projections suggest that by 2020 wind electrical power will be cost competitive, without tax incentives, with electricity from conventional fossil and nuclear fuel sources.Overcoming technological, business, market, societal, networking and political hurdles to date has required 120years of development to establish wind electricity generation as a breakthrough innovation with the capability to capture 20% of the world electricity market by the mid-to-late 21st Century. Further growth and maturation is expected to continue to 2100, corresponding to a projected ≅ 210year overall industry life cycle at market saturation. This finding has profound implications for innovation theory and practice, since the length of this life cycle exceeds by a factor of ≅ 4 the average life cycle diagnosed for five industrial revolutions and four key 20th Century innovations. The new ARI model provides a holistic approach to understanding the dynamics of the industrial technology life cycle for a wide variety of radical innovations as well as wind electrical power.
  • Article
    Full-text available
    Innovation is characterized by uncertainties, high risks, large investments and late returns on investment which make it a complex process. This is particularly true for sustainable innovation where market forces alone cannot be relied upon to realize the desired transitions. Insight in the dynamics of such innovation processes is necessary in order to influence technological change toward a more sustainable direction. However, few instruments and indicators are available to assess the performance of emerging technological innovation systems. In this phase competition often takes place based on expectations rather than on technological performance. This paper therefore focuses on the expectation patterns of technological innovation systems in the exploratory phase through the analysis of the expectation dynamics of three emerging technologies in the field of sustainable mobility within the Netherlands: biofuels, hydrogen as a transport fuel and natural gas as a transport fuel. These technologies do not only compete with the current fossil-fuel based system but also with each other. We have collected over 5000 expectation events regarding these technologies for the period 2000–2008 and discuss the insights generated by the comparison of the observed expectation dynamics to theoretical patterns.
  • Article
    Recent years have seen growing academic interest in the concept of induced diffusion as efforts to address concerns about energy security and climate change have intensified. Research on induced diffusion explores whether policy tools or interventions can incentivise the diffusion of innovations. This body of literature has explored the effectiveness and efficiency of various policy interventions and as such has been mainly concerned with the determinants of diffusion. This paper is, by way of contrast, concerned with the patterns of diffusion when diffusion is induced. Drawing on the Bass and Davies models of innovation diffusion we develop a number of propositions that suggest that the patterns of diffusion are different when policy plays a role in the diffusion process. These propositions are then econometrically tested in the context of the international diffusion of wind energy in 25 OECD countries. We find that, as predicted, without effective and strong policy interventions, countries will have conventional logistic diffusion with very similar speeds of diffusion. However, as expected the patterns of diffusion take on a different functional form (Bass curve) when there is a strong policy inducement. We conclude by discussing the implications and limitations of these results and suggesting avenues for further research.
  • Article
    In this article, the gap between futures research (long term) and market research (short term) is closed in two ways. Firstly, by describing methods of market exploration that can be used earlier on in the process of development and diffusion of breakthrough technologies, so market research can be applied along with futures research. Secondly, the gap is closed by actually combining futures research and market research. We start the article from the perspective of the market research discipline and describe the problems in market research that require new approaches. The validity of market research results is often low when breakthrough technologies enter the market. To investigate this problem, assumptions for valid market research results are presented. In some cases, when breakthrough technologies first enter the market, these assumptions do not hold and market research becomes problematic whereas in other cases customers' needs and preferences are not an issue at all and attention focuses on technological issues. Potential solutions to explore the market in the former cases are suggested. Four approaches are distinguished: (1) adapting existing methods; (2) combining consumer research with market structure analysis or futures research; (3) using theoretic models; and (4) probe and learn approaches. These approaches require different subsets of assumptions and are therefore applicable in different situations.
  • Article
    In his discussion in this journal of Kurzweil's The Singularity is Near, Modis criticizes Kurzweil's loose characterization of the “knee” of a growth curve. Likewise, the “tipping points” described by Gladwell (The Tipping Point) are clearly relevant to forecasting systems, but Gladwell did not mathematically identify such points. Both concepts refer to a point on the curve where growth accelerates dramatically and sustains itself. What can be said in a rigorous way about knees and tipping points in growth systems?The answer has to do with the number of parameters of the growth curve, and the (probabilistic) model underlying the growth curve. Using probability theory and computational experiments, this paper clarifies these points for the logistic and Bass curves (identifying an unambiguous tipping point for the latter), and explores the merits of a 3-parameter model of innovation adoption. It concludes that if forecasters are to deal scientifically with the now-established management notion of “tipping points,” a 3-parameter model is needed. The paper also resolves four minor but annoying paradoxes in the growth curve literature.
  • Article
    This article investigates the interplay of expectation dynamics and innovation processes at the level of organizations and at the innovation system level. We examine how different kinds of organizations contributed and responded to a recent hype and disappointment cycle in the field of stationary fuel cells. Among others, we trace how innovation and discourse activities changed and we explain the observed differences in strategic responses. We show that the sensitivity of organizations to expectation dynamics depends on at least three factors: the strategic embedding of the new technology, the organization's dependence on external legitimacy and its role in the innovation system. Moreover, we show that – in their aggregation – strategic responses affected the level of the technological innovation system as well. Not only did the pace and direction of innovation activities change, but structures such as actor constellations and institutions were also modified. Our study thus provides insights into the interplay of expectation and innovation dynamics, which is important for our understanding of larger transformation processes, e.g. toward more sustainable modes of energy supply. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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    This article introduces four basic theories that may serve as building blocks for explaining processes of change in organizations: life cycle, teleology, dialectics, and evolution. These four theories represent different sequences of change events that are driven by different conceptual motors and operate at different organizational levels. This article identifies the circumstances when each theory applies and proposes how interplay among the theories produces a wide variety of more complex theories of change and development in organizational life.
  • Article
    Innovation processes are influenced by the social dynamics of expectations, for instance by hypes and subsequent disappointments of expectations about the future of a technology or innovation. This paper takes a closer look at the expectation dynamics in the case of stationary fuel cells and its impact on the development of the innovation field. We observed a certain disappointment following a hype at the beginning of the millennium (2000-2001) but no notable negative effects on the innovation activities. We stress the need to distinguish different types of hype-disappointment dynamics according to different levels of expectations. In the case of fuel cells, societal expectations on the technology (such as the vision of a future hydrogen economy) remained intact and allowed for a mere scaling down of the high risen expectations after the end of the hype. Together with the considerable degree of institutionalisation which has taken place in the course of the hype period, this largely explains why innovation activities continue almost unabated.
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    Diffusion of many successful communication technologies, like telephony and television technology, follows an almost perfect S-shaped curve. This curve implies that, after their introduction, subsequent sales of products on the basis of these technologies can be predicted accurately. However, the diffusion of other breakthroughs in communication technologies, like interactive television, videotelephony or broadband mobile communication technology, shows a more erratic pattern. Introduction of these technologies is often postponed or, once introduced, they are quickly withdrawn from the market after the first disappointing results. Rather than distinguishing alternative patterns, this article shows that the S-shaped curve and the more erratic patterns represent subsequent phases in one pattern of development and diffusion of breakthrough communication technologies. Three phases are distinguished in this pattern. Managerial implications of the differences between these phases are discussed. the paper shows that a company trying to introduce a new communication technology has to adopt different strategies in each phase.
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    Martin R. and Sunley P. Conceptualizing cluster evolution: beyond the life cycle model?, Regional Studies. Although the literature on the evolution of industrial clusters is not vast, a preferred approach has already become evident based around the idea of a cluster 'life cycle'. This approach has several limitations. This paper explores a different conception of cluster evolution, drawing on the 'adaptive cycle' model that has been developed in evolutionary ecology. Using this model, cluster evolution is viewed as an adaptive process with different possible outcomes based on episodic interactions of nested systems. Though not without limitations, this approach offers greater scope as a framework for shaping the research agenda into the evolution of clusters.
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    The technology S-curve is a useful framework describing the substitution of new for old technologies at the industry level. In this paper I use information from the technological history of the disk drive industry to examine the usefulness of the S-curve framework for managers at the firm level in planning for new technology development. Because improvements in over-all disk drive product performance result from the interaction of improved component technologies and new architectural technologies, each of these must be monitored and managed. This paper focuses on component technology S-curves, and a subsequent paper, also published in this issue of the journal, examines architectural technology Scurves. Improvement in individual components followed S-curve patterns, but I show that the flattening of S-curves is a firm-specific, rather than uniform industry phenomenon. Lack of progress in conventional technologies may be the result, rather than the stimulus, of a forecast that the conventional technology is maturing, and some firms demonstrated the ability to wring far greater levels of performance from existing component technologies than other firms. Attacking entrant firms evidenced a distinct disadvantage versus incumbent firms in developing and using new component technologies. Firms pursuing aggressive Scurve switching strategies in component technology development gained no strategic advantage over firms whose strategies focused on extending the life of established component technologies.
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    The article investigates three mechanisms by which expectation dynamics affect innovation processes. Empirically, it focuses on hype– disappointment cycles in electronic commerce and interactive television, drawing on results from qualitative case studies and secondary analysis. First, two specific ways by which collective, i.e. widely shared, expectations motivate and guide innovation actors are presented. These mechanisms serve as an explanation for the fact that often an impressively large number of heterogeneous actors accept and contribute to high-rising expectations. With reference to a third mechanism, it is shown that results of technological projects are subject to interpretative flexibility and, as such, are interpreted in the light of the same expectations they are supposed to 'validate'. Sudden changes of the consideration of certain technologies as promising or not are then explained as a result of the interaction between collective expectations and expectations and outcomes at the project level.
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    Man effort to reconcile theoretical "blind spots," we integrated research in technology management, organizational ecology, and evolutionary economics. The central premise underlying the resultant model is that time conditions the effects of age, contemporaneous size, order of entry, and contemporaneous density on mortality rates. We tested our hypotheses using a life cycle approach and data on 33 product innovations that span most of the 20th century. Results resoundingly support our central thesis on the impact of time on both survival rates and relationships previously thought to be universalistic.
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    (This article originally appeared in Management Science, January 1969, Volume 15, Number 5, pp. 215--227, published by The Institute of Management Sciences.) A growth model for the timing of initial purchase of new products is developed and tested empirically against data for eleven consumer durables. The basic assumption of the model is that the timing of a consumer's initial purchase is related to the number of previous buyers. A behavioral rationale for the model is offered in terms of innovative and imitative behavior. The model yields good predictions of the sales peak and the timing of the peak when applied to historical data. A long-range forecast is developed for the sales of color television sets.
  • Conference Paper
    Hype Cycle is a popular graphic representation of the level of maturity, adoption and business application of a technology, originally introduced by Gartner Research¿s Jackie Fenn. Despite its popularity, the verification or relation to theoretical frameworks is to a large extent missing in current research literature. This paper presents some possible theoretically based conceptualizations and definitions regarding the Hype Cycle. In addition, a bibliometric study of the existence of the Hype Cycle in terms of technology life cycle indicators, specifically in applied research and application phases, was carried out.
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    In the last decade ‘sectoral systems of innovation’ have emerged as a new approach in innovation studies. This article makes four contributions to the approach by addressing some open issues. The first contribution is to explicitly incorporate the user side in the analysis. Hence, the unit of analysis is widened from sectoral systems of innovation to socio-technical systems. The second contribution is to suggest an analytical distinction between systems, actors involved in them, and the institutions which guide actor’s perceptions and activities. Thirdly, the article opens up the black box of institutions, making them an integral part of the analysis. Institutions should not just be used to explain inertia and stability. They can also be used to conceptualise the dynamic interplay between actors and structures. The fourth contribution is to address issues of change from one system to another. The article provides a coherent conceptual multi-level perspective, using insights from sociology, institutional theory and innovation studies. The perspective is particularly useful to analyse long-term dynamics, shifts from one socio-technical system to another and the co-evolution of technology and society.
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    The paper aims at answering the generic question on how suppliers make the suitable and well-timed decisions in diffusing new technology effectively to adopters. Three major attempts are made for the study: First, investigating the entire process of the adoption and diffusion of technology innovation with reasonably well-accepted models in each areas. Second, proposing an integrated model by concatenating in structured manner the three prominent models for the management of technology innovation such as diffusion model, adoption model, and customer satisfaction model. Third, exploring the dynamic mechanism underlying outward behaviors of the integrated model proposed in the study which depicts the causal relationships that influence technology adoption and diffusion behaviors. An exploration of the dynamic mechanism underlying outward behaviors of the integrated model is presented in the study by introducing the system dynamics simulation technique. These attempts made for the study and the results perhaps allow both researchers and practitioners to gain insight into the causal factors influencing customers' adoption decision making processes and thereby into the potential diffusion patterns resulting from those adoption processes.
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    The procedures and the nature of “technologies” are suggested to be broadly similar to those which characterize “science”. In particular, there appear to be “technological paradigms” (or research programmes) performing a similar role to “scientific paradigms” (or research programmes). The model tries to account for both continuous changes and discontinuities in technological innovation. Continuous changes are often related to progress along a technological trajectory defined by a technological paradigm, while discontinuities are associated with the emergence of a new paradigm. One-directional explanations of the innovative process, and in particular those assuming “the market” as the prime mover, are inadequate to explain the emergence of new technological paradigms. The origin of the latter stems from the interplay between scientific advances, economic factors, institutional variables, and unsolved difficulties on established technological paths. The model tries to establish a sufficiently general framework which accounts for all these factors and to define the process of selection of new technological paradigms among a greater set of notionally possible ones.The history of a technology is contextual to the history of the industrial structures associated with that technology. The emergence of a new paradigm is often related to new “schumpeterian” companies, while its establishment often shows also a process of oligopolistic stabilization.
  • Article
    Short product life cycles are becoming increasingly common in many industries. Traditional approaches to medium-term forecasting are not designed for the type of information available (or the lack thereof) in the short life cycle environment. A typical demand curve for these products consists of rapid growth, maturity, and decline phases coupled with seasonal variation. With reference to product demand curves of a personal computer (PC) manufacturer, we suggest the use of information on total life cycle sales and the peak sales timing to obtain initial monthly forecast in the absence of a sales history. Three growth models are presented in which such information can be utilized to estimate the parameters. We also outline procedures that use demand history of prior products to estimate the seasonal variation in demand. Using data on PC products, we empirically validate the models and compare their fit and forecast performance with ARIMA models. We show that the accuracy of the forecast made multiple periods ahead using two of the three models investigated is comparable to that made one period ahead using ARIMA models. Empirical observations and issues relating to the implementation of the models at a PC manufacturer are also discussed.
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    The increasing popularity of functional neuroimaging technologies in multiple disciplines has gained attention from within and outside the field of neuroscience. As the scope of research employing functional neuroimaging technologies broadens, there appears to also be a growing concern about the use of these technologies and the related social, ethical and legal issues. These concerns have been coined 'neuroskepticism'. First, we review how the term neuroskepticism has been previously used and defined. Second, we examine review and commentary articles published in journals with top impact factors, probing the presence and evolution of neuroskepticism within these articles. Results demonstrate a wide, but expected, range of issues associated with functional neuroimaging. It also appears that neuroskepticism is increasing as functional neuroimaging technologies gain popularity, which may indicate the presence of a classic Gartner Hype Cycle.
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    Valid measurement scales for predicting user acceptance of computers are in short supply. Most subjective measures used in practice are unvalidated, and their relationship to system usage is unknown. The present research develops and validates new scales for two specific variables, perceived usefulness and perceived ease of use, which are hypothesized to be fundamental determinants of user acceptance. Definitions for these two variables were used to develop scale items that were pretested for content validity and then tested for reliability and construct validity in two studies involving a total of 152 users and four application programs. The measures were refined and streamlined, resulting in two six-item scales with reliabilities of .98 for usefulness and .94 for ease of use. The scales exhibited high convergent, discriminant, and factorial validity. Perceived usefulness was significantly correlated with both self-reported current usage (r=.63, Study 1) and self-predicted future usage (r =.85, Study 2). Perceived ease of use was also significantly correlated with current usage (r=.45, Study 1) and future usage (r=.59, Study 2). In both studies, usefulness had a significantly greater correlation with usage behavior than did ease of use. Regression analyses suggest that perceived ease of use may actually be a causal antecedent to perceived usefulness, as opposed to a parallel, direct determinant of system usage. Implications are drawn for future research on user acceptance.
  • Article
    The notion of 'hype' is widely used and represents a tempting way to characterize developments in technological fields. The term appears in business as well as in academic domains. Consultancy firms offer technological hype cycle models to determine the state of development of technological fields in order to facilitate strategic investment decisions. In Science, Technology and Innovation Studies the concept of hype is considered in studies on the dynamics of expectations in innovation processes, which focuses on the performative force of expectations. What is still lacking is a theory of hype patterns that is able to explain the different shapes of hype cycles in different contexts. In this paper we take a first step towards closing this gap by studying and comparing the results of case studies on three hypes in three different empirical domains: voice over interne protocol (VoIP), gene therapy and high-temperature superconductivity. The cases differ in terms of the type of technology and the characteristics of the application environment. We conclude that hype patterns indeed vary a lot, and that the interplay of expectations at different levels affects the ability of a field to cope with hype and disappointment
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    Este libro es una herramienta para aquellos administradores que busquen comprender los fundamentos de los ciclos tecnológicos y los procesos de adquisición y administración de tecnología. De manera que puedan desarrollar nuevas tecnologías de valor agregado que les permitan obtener beneficios en el corto plazo, así como las reducciones de precios típicas de las industrias altamente competitivas, como lo son la industria electrónica y la de semiconductores.
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    Since the works by the business cycle theorists in the 1930s, no attempts have been made to study empirically the long term evolution paths of individual technologies starting with long time series. This is an empirical exploration and confirmation of the now almost assumed image or metaphor of the way technology develops; that it follows an S-shaped growth path which is commonly associated with a similar shaped diffusion function of entrepreneurial activity. The paper also confirms the diversity of technology dynamics and explores how technological cycle takeoffs appear to be clustered within certain historical epochs. The results have implications for our understanding of the evolution paths of individual technologies, and of the evolution of technological systems and waves of innovation. By use of computational statistics, logistic growth functions are fitted to US patent stocks, 1920–1990, at a detailed level of aggregation, including chemical, electrical/electronic, mechanical, transport and non-industrial technologies. Some practical considerations when developing an empirically testable model of innovation cycles are addressed in the paper as well.
  • Article
    Australian and New Zealand environmental economists have played a significant role in the development of concepts and their application across three fields within their subdiscipline: non-market valuation, institutional economics and bioeconomic modelling. These contributions have been spurred on by debates within and outside the discipline. Much of the controversy has centred on the validity of valuations generated through the application of stated preference methods such as contingent valuation. Suggestions to overcome some shortcomings in the work of environmental economists include the commissioning of a sequence of non-market valuation studies to fill existing gaps to improve the potential for benefit transfer. Copyright 2005 Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society Inc. and Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd..
  • Article
    Regularities concerning how entry, exit, market structure, and innovation vary from the birth of technologically progressive industries through maturity are summarized. A model emphasizing differences in firm innovative capabilities and the importance of firm size in appropriating the returns from innovation is developed to explain the regularities. The model also explains regularities regarding the relationship within industries between firm size and firm innovative effort, innovative productivity, cost, and profitability. It predicts that over time firms devote more effort to process innovation but the number of firms and the rate and diversity of product innovation eventually wither. Copyright 1996 by American Economic Association.
  • Conference Paper
    Hype Cycle is a graphic representation of the level of maturity, adoption and business application of a technology, originally introduced by Gartner Researchpsilas Jackie Fenn. The Hype Cycle concept has gained wide popularity among practicing managers but its empirical testing or relation to theoretical frameworks is to a large extent missing in current literature. This paper presents some alternative theoretical frameworks that might lend support to the existence of the Hype Cycle. The paper also proposes a method for measurement of the Hype Cycle empirically. A bibliometric study of the existence of the Hype Cycle in terms of technology life cycle indicators was carried out. In general, the results in the case of DVD technology support the existence of the Hype Cycle -type of dynamics in the visibility of technologies in media. Moreover, the suggested method for measurement revealed some possibilities for future research.
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    Summary form only as given. Technological forecasting is premised on a certain orderliness of the innovation process. Myriad studies of technological substitution, diffusion and transfer processes have yielded conceptual models of what matters for successful innovation. Yet most technological forecasts key on limited empirical measures quite divorced from those innovation process models. The authors glean a number of concepts from various innovation models, then present an array of bibliometric measures that offer promise of operationalizing these concepts. Judicious combination of such bibliometrics with other forms of evidence offers an enriched form of technological forecasting that they name “innovation forecasting”. This provides a good means to combine technological trends, mapping of technological interdependencies and competitive intelligence to produce a viable forecast. They illustrate this approach by assessing the prospects for ceramic engine technologies