No full-text available
To read the full-text of this research,
you can request a copy directly from the authors.
Energy-constrained and low-carbon scenarios for the transportation and logistics industry
Abstract
Purpose
– There is consensus among experts that the design of future supply chains will have to focus more strongly on environmental concerns. Sustainability will play a major role within the business and has an impact especially on the distant future. Thus, supply chain executives are challenged in designing sustainable supply chains for the future. The paper aims to discuss this issue.
Design/methodology/approach
– The authors develop expert-based scenarios, which describe how future supply chains could evolve by 2030. The authors focus on the transportation and logistics industry’s perspective to provide an industry-internal view. The data collection is based on an internet-based Delphi survey. Overall, 48 top executives from 20 countries, representing academic, governmental, and industrial perspectives, participated in the survey.
Findings
– The authors operationalized the research question into five concrete sub-topics relevant for investigation: energy and emissions, consumer behaviour, future transport modes, design of future supply chains, and innovation. The authors derive five Delphi-based scenarios defined by clusters of their impact and expected probability: measurement and control of CO2-emissions; integrated low energy logistics systems; business-as-usual logistics; no-frills logistics and alternative fuels. Each cluster contributes differently to supply chain strategy.
Originality/value
– The authors address the major issues and challenges experts expect regarding future supply chains in an energy-constrained, low-carbon world. Five scenario clusters evolved for supply chain strategy development. Finally, the authors make recommendations towards strategic planning in the transportation and logistics industry.
... In addition, it is likely that truck manufacturers will be repositioned in the future, as digital reinvention will be a prerequisite for future success [40]. For example, OEMs could offer flexible rental and sharing concepts [79] and move Delphi method can be used to collect expert knowledge in a structured way [13,29] with the aim of reaching a reliable consensus within an expert group about future developments and events [28,32,90]. At the same time, the scenario method is particularly suitable for estimating future developments and long-term planning, and is useful in strategic decision making in an uncertain, rapidly changing environment [89,95]. ...
... Each workshop consisted of a free brainstorming on the driving trends in logistics by the experts followed by an evaluative assessment of the so far identified trend areas and future theses from the literature review. This two way approach via literature and expert knowledge allowed us to ensure that no relevant trend area was overlooked for our specific research question [29]. ...
... In a further step, these projections were formulated with concrete and precise wording. Irrelevant information and conditional statements were eliminated and an appropriate question length was ensured [20,29,51,74]. Each projection was introduced with "In 2030 ..." to always remind In 2030, driving in an automated truck will be divided into active manual and passive automated driving time. ...
The logistics industry is facing a transformation. Automated driving has been gaining importance in the commercial vehicle industry and trucks with SAE L4 are expected by 2030 for the hub-to-hub scenario. Driven by the research question of what the direct logistics environment of automated trucks will look like in 2030 a two-round Delphi-based scenario study was conducted for domestic goods transport in Germany. 19 projections were developed and evaluated by 27 experts from different industries. With complete-linkage clustering, four logistics scenarios for 2030 were created. The results show that environmental and social sustainability as well as digitalization are expected to be the most important drivers. These include the shift to electric drive systems, improved working conditions, and increasing transparency and connectivity of the supply chain. The experts forecast an increase in the importance of software services and a continuing shortage of skilled workers. Rather controversial are the topics of charging infrastructure for electrified transport and the degree of automation of loading systems. Overall, the results provide a reliable basis for strategic decision-making in order to ensure the introduction of automated trucks into the logistics of the future and their surrounding environment.
... The second area examines the integration of environmental standards into supply chain activities through various practices, such as sourcing from eco-friendly suppliers and using green materials (Ghosh et al., 2022;Sharma et al., 2022;Wilhelm & Villena, 2021). In the third research area, studies focus on diverse green technologies implemented in supply chains, including renewable energy (Khan et al., 2018), energy-efficient solutions (Beheshtinia & Fathi, 2023), and low-carbon transportation (Lieb & Lieb, 2010;Von Der Gracht & Darkow, 2016). The fourth area explores the importance of supplier collaboration and engagement in improving supply chain sustainability. ...
... In the literature on operational efficiency and waste reduction, studies have confirmed that sustainable supply chains mitigate carbon emissions through different practices, including lean management (Azevedo et al., 2012;Pearce et al., 2018), supply chain process optimization (Becerra et al., 2023;Gautam et al., 2021;Yılmaz et al., 2021), efficient logistics operations (Ferreira et al., 2019) In the stream of literature on green technologies, studies have confirmed that the introduction of various green technologies into the supply chain has had a significant impact on carbon emissions reduction. These technologies include renewable energy resources (Khan et al., 2018) and energy-efficient solutions (Beheshtinia & Fathi, 2023), as well as low-carbon transportation strategies (Lieb & Lieb, 2010;Von Der Gracht & Darkow, 2016). In the context of renewable resource technologies, Khan et al. (2018) applied panel regression across 43 countries. ...
Over 75% of a firm's carbon footprint is attributed to logistics activities and transportation related to the acquisition, production, and distribution of materials and goods. Green supply chain management is considered a way to reduce carbon emissions and address climate change concerns. Accordingly, this study aims to investigate whether sustainable supply chain practices reduce carbon emissions and whether supplier environmental, social, and governance (ESG) training further enhances this effect, thereby reinforcing the negative association. We collected data for an international sample of manufacturing firms from Thomson Reuters Eikon for the period between 2002 and 2021 and ran a country-year fixed-effects regression. To address endogeneity, we also utilized two-stage least squares regression, propensity score matching, and entropy balancing. Our findings indicate that sustainable supply chain practices alleviate carbon emissions. Furthermore, we found that supplier ESG training strengthens this relationship, leading to even higher reductions in carbon emissions. Specifically, this training reinforces the negative association between sustainable supply chain practices and carbon emissions, resulting in a more pronounced decrease in carbon emissions. These results are robust to alternative proxies, samples, and endogeneity concerns. Our study highlights the importance of policy development and collaborative interorganizational actions among supply chain partners in developing solutions to climate change issues. As supply chain activities generate high levels of emissions and regulatory press is mounting, our findings may help firms take proactive actions for greener supply chain management and avoid regulatory sanctions. Additionally, we found that institutional strength stimulates firms' clean supply chain practices. Therefore, we advise policymakers to develop and implement necessary policies in less developed countries with weak public environmental regulations.
... Subsequently, many scholars have conducted research on low-carbon logistics and carbon dioxide emissions in the logistics field. Huang stated that environmental issues in the logistics industry will affect many logistics decisions throughout the supply chain [9,10]. Shi took IKEA as an example to study the impact of low-carbon concepts on the logistics model of the furniture industry [11]. Lee discussed the field of maritime logistics [12]. ...
... Of these, carbon dioxide from gasoline and kerosene maintained an increasing trend in 2019, at 50.8323 million tons and 18.5431 million tons, respectively, representing an increase of 308.76% and 588.41% compared with 2000; carbon dioxide emitted by diesel oil continued to surge in 2000-2012, from 28.3789 million tons to 92.4223 million tons, and the growth rate of emissions was relatively slow in the following years, increasing by 239.03% compared with 2000 in 2012. Carbon dioxide emitted by fuel oil rose from 7.4996 million tons in 2000 to 15.5281 million tons in 2007, fell to 10.0827 million tons in 2008, and rose to its original peak in subsequent years. According to the analysis of the reasons behind this, the transportation work of China's logistics industry is mainly road transportation, and the means of transport have a great demand for fuel energy; furthermore, the rapid development of e-commerce in China in recent years has led to a surge in logistics business, resulting in a substantial increase in energy consumption. ...
Due to increased global carbon dioxide emissions, the greenhouse effect is being aggravated, which has attracted wide attention. China is committed to promoting the low-carbon development of all industries. This paper analyzed the influencing factors of carbon emissions in the Chinese logistics industry, so as to identify the key factors that influence carbon emissions. Based on the carbon emission data of China’s logistics industry in 2000–2019, this paper applied the carbon emission coefficients issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. For the first time, the Generalized Divisia Index Method was used to analyze the degree of influence of the factors on carbon emissions. This method considered more variables and their relationships. The results showed that (1) the carbon emissions of the logistics industry were increased by 3.22 times from 2000 to 2018, and showed negative growth for the first time in 2019; (2) the added value of the logistics industry is the most important factor in increasing carbon emissions (with a contribution ratio of 65.45%), energy consumption and practical population size are the main factors in carbon emissions. The promotion of this industry is subjected to decreased per capita carbon emissions, which have a large impact on total carbon emissions; (3) the intensity of carbon output is the most important factor in the reduction of carbon emissions (with a contribution ratio of −29.1%), where the energy carbon intensity and per capita added value are the main influencing factors with regard to the reduction of carbon emissions, while energy intensity has a negative inhibitory effect on carbon emissions, and (4) the influencing factors have negative effects on the cumulative inhibition of carbon emissions in the logistics industry, to an extent that is far less than the integral promotion of carbon emissions. Finally, according to the research conclusions of this paper, it is feasible to make recommendations for the carbon reduction of the logistics industry.
... Further, in regard to the desirability the experts expressed a value higher than 3 to most of our projections. Thus, in line with recent studies we can consider these projections as opportunities [136]. Only projection 11 ...
... To increase the explanatory power of our results, we analyzed the consensus among the experts for each projection. The degree of consensus or disagreement allows to derive insights on the experts' certainty of the responses [136]. We calculated and evaluated the consensus's strength or in other words group stability (Formula: 100 minus the Coefficient of Variation, COVAR). ...
The advancements in the fields of IT and robotics are provoking the fourth industrial revolution and transforming our economy toward the machine economy. Billions of economically autonomous machines engaging in business relationships raise novel requirements regarding security, privacy, regulation, business models, trustful transaction processing, and interoperability. A technology that promises to provide solutions to these challenges is blockchain. Neither practice has spawned productive solutions nor has research been able to assess the phenomenon profoundly. First investigations focus on specific use cases, but existing work does not examine the overall impact and role of blockchain in the machine economy. However, this knowledge is of particular importance for various stakeholders. In this article, we address this research and knowledge gap by conducting a study with 50 blockchain and machine economy experts. We establish a sound research fundament by following a literature assessment, group discussion, interviews, and qualitative data analysis. As main research instrument, we chose a Delphi study, which has a long-proven record of application in prospective studies and has been applied to examine future premises, estimates, and challenges across nearly all disciplines. This allows us to derive six key findings leading to a transparent picture of blockchain's role in the machine economy.
... Strategic scenarios base their visioning on current issues, such as investing more in transit or rail transportation, and considering state rules versus local rules [70]. Combining with multi-criteria [70] and qualitative methods such as Delphi and games, or hybrids of these [71,72], explorative scenarios are opening the space for envisioning, although participation is mostly expert-based and often only in the form of surveys [73]. ...
... Preserving scenarios (7/2012) target aims such as, how we can meet cost-efficacy; they examine the near future energy models, short-term transportation issues, and they estimate energy consumption [74]. These methods base their predictions on past years' directions (e.g., 2010) in order to estimate futures for the target year (e.g., 2030 [73] or 2050 [75]). Furthermore, the transforming scenarios (18/2011) are developing newer paths in 25 to 50 years predictions. ...
Urban mobility is facing an increased long-term uncertainty and complexity generated by accelerated technological development. These challenges require radical advancement in planning processes and methods, which could enable breaking out of path dependencies and unlocking alternative, sustainable futures. In order to provide a landscape overview of foresight-focused methods used in the domain of urban mobility, we conduct a systematic literature review. An analytical framework for review is based on planning knowledge taxonomy, including dialectic between knowing how/what and knowing to what end and doing. Such framework formulation is aiming to assess methodological capacity for widening system boundary and holism (object-focus) as well as integration and imagination (process-focus). Results show that the overall trend of methodological development is emphasizing development in object or process-focus domain, but rarely both. In addition to this assessment, we conclude that methodological development should further reflect the moral and democratic dimension concerning public deliberation. Such development should aim to create spaces for shared discussion, reflection, and formation of alternative futures, while allowing spaces for agonistic contestation and conflicting opinions through radical, experimental, and experiential approaches.
... Most studies on LCSCs have been conducted at the industrial level, considering government subsidies, consumer demand, the operational efficiency of logistics companies, and different sales channels as the entry points. Unlike traditional supply chains, LCSCs are the integrated result of continuous technological innovations [8,9]. Although the industry and the government are continuously promoting the construction of LCSCs and green supply chains, the consumers' choice of LCSCs at the market level can directly boost the development of the LCSC industry [10]. ...
E-commerce platform-based supply chains have emerged as efficient and widely used channels for the distribution of agricultural products, with low-carbon supply chains capable of reducing the carbon footprint of these products from the initial to the terminal stage, which has led to their increasing adoption by consumers. Based on major e-commerce platforms in China, combined with an extended technology acceptance model, this study examines the factors affecting low-carbon supply chain adoption by agricultural product consumers on e-commerce platforms. The results showed that consumers’ perceived risk, perceived usefulness, and adoption attitude all influence their adoption behavior, with the effect of adoption attitude being the greatest. Furthermore, the effect of perceived usefulness on adoption attitude is stronger than that of perceived risk. Moreover, perceived usefulness is affected mainly by the perceived price, technical utility, green behavior tendency, and subjective norms, whereas the perceived risk is affected mainly by technical utility, information display and dissemination, and green behavior tendency. This study provides valuable insights for e-commerce platforms to better understand the needs of agricultural product consumers, improve market competitiveness, and enhance consumers’ awareness and willingness of adopting low-carbon approaches, which can promote the low-carbon sustainable development of agricultural product supply chains.
... Currently, there is a huge potential for carbon reduction in the Chinese mode of freight transport (Gracht and Darkow 2016). It can be seen from Fig. 1 that the proportion of roadway freight ranks first all year long and far exceeds that of other modes of freight transportation. ...
Transportation is the key carbon emission source after energy supply and industrial production. Under the vision of carbon peak and carbon neutralization, the pressure of reducing carbon emissions in transportation will be greater in the future. This paper constructs a model that takes transportation carbon emission as the main target and freight transportation utility value as the auxiliary target. The constructed model satisfies the constraints of freight turnover in the whole society, freight economic and social benefits, and the ecological constraints of the freight system. With MATLAB, the freight turnover of roadways, railways, and waterways (excluding ocean transportation) in 2030 is solved by using the adaptive genetic algorithm. The results indicate that (I) compared with the current freight structure of China, the roadway freight sharing rate in 2030 will decrease by 8.07%, and the railway freight sharing rate and the waterway freight sharing rate (excluding ocean transportation) will increase by 0.93% and 7.13%, respectively. (II) After optimization, the energy consumption and carbon emission are reduced by 42,471,500 tons (10.3%) and 91,379,400 tons (10.2%) of standard coal, respectively. (III) The adaptive genetic algorithm outperforms the traditional genetic algorithm in terms of convergence speed and accuracy. (IV) As the weight coefficient of carbon emission increases, the utility value of freight transportation consistently decreases, and the sensitivity increases. Meanwhile, as the carbon emission weight coefficient increases, carbon emission keeps decreasing, and the sensitivity decreases.
... Due to its operating consequences on the maritime and air environments, the shipping sector has been at the center of attention on a worldwide scale. The impact of shipping activities on environmental pollution is highlighted in various discussions [8][9][10][11][12][13][14]. The global crisis has once again reminded the public of environmental sustainability trends. ...
The COVID-19 pandemic has implications for the container shipping industry and global supply chains. Measuring the efficiency of major international container shipping companies (CSCs) is an important issue that helps them make strategic decisions to improve performance, especially in the context that all businesses and governments are adapting to build back better the post-pandemic world. This paper develops a new integrated approach using both a qualitative assessment tool and a performance assessment tool as a systematic and flexible framework for evaluating the container shipping industry. This new methodology is implemented in two phases to consider both qualitative and quantitative criteria for assessing the performance of CSCs based on efficiency. In the first phase, qualitative performance evaluation is performed using spherical fuzzy analytical hierarchical process (AHP-SF) to find criteria weights and then the grey complex proportional assessment methodology (COPRAS-G) is used to find the ranking of CSCs. Qualitative variables are converted into a quantitative variable for use in the data envelopment analysis (DEA) model as an output called an output variable called expert-based qualitative performance (EQP). Then, DEA is performed to identify efficient and inefficient CSCs with the EQP variable and other quantitative parameters (i.e., capacity, lifting, expenses, revenue, and CO2 emissions). The efficiency of 14 major global CSCs is empirically evaluated, and the scores for CSCs’ efficiency in all dimensions are measured and examined. The results show that the average cargo efficiency of the CSCs is lower than their eco-efficiency performance, revealing the operational disruption caused by the pandemic. Moreover, by identifying efficient and inefficient CSCs, our findings provide practical implications for decision-makers in the maritime field and assist in modifying applicable policies and strategies to achieve sustainable performance.
... is is the reason why salt is sprinkled on ice roads in winter. Reference [17]. ...
In recent years, fresh fruits and vegetables have been sought after by Chinese people. The fresh-keeping technology, storage, and transportation of fruits and vegetables have also attracted a large number of people’s attention. Various methods of preservation, storage, and transportation of fruits and vegetables have begun to appear in the society. Micro and nanobubbles have the characteristics of long stay time, larger than the surface, high surface negative electricity, strong reliability, high efficiency of heat transfer, can cause oxygen free radicals, can greatly improve the actual effect of ozone and ozone utilization rate, and reduce the operation cost. This article aims to study the application of ozone micro-nano bubble processing vegetable fresh-keeping technology in air logistics and transportation, and put forward the idea of applying ozone micro-nano bubble processing fresh-keeping technology to fruits and vegetables fresh-keeping and transportation more widely. This article focuses on the introduction of ozone micro-nano bubbles, fresh-keeping technology, air transportation, and experiments on some fresh-keeping technologies in the article. The experimental results show that the vegetable preservation technology based on ozone micro-nano bubbles can better maintain the moisture and nutrients in the vegetables. The preservation technology of ozone micro-nano bubble treatment has improved the preservation of fruits and vegetables by 12%.
... Under the pressure of stakeholders, firms have to design supply chain (SC) operations respecting environmental requirements while providing innovative solutions to maximize profit through green practices (Koplin et al., 2007;Touboulic et al., 2014). As a result, green practices related to eco-design, cleaner production and life cycle assessments have become gradually part of SC operations that firms manage internally and/or with network partners (von der Gracht and Darkow, 2016). In academia, studies in the area of green supply chain management (GSCM) and sustainable supply chain management (SSCM) have become increasingly important fields of SCM research (Koster et al., 2017;Tebaldi et al., 2018;Jabbour et al., 2015). ...
Purpose
There have been several reviews of green, ecological and sustainable innovations, but a thorough assessment of green innovation (GI)'s mechanisms in a supply chain setting has not been attempted yet. The purpose of this paper is to review how GI was investigated in supply chains through the lens of a multilevel framework of innovation mechanisms.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors provide a comprehensive assessment of prior studies using a systematic literature review approach and content analysis of 136 papers identified from the Web of Science Core Collection database.
Findings
Current literature on green innovation supply chains (GISC) has been categorized according to three main causal mechanisms: situational, action-formation and transformational mechanisms. Three different levels of analysis were considered for the three mechanisms: macro, meso and micro. In addition, the authors have also assessed the value creation and appropriation outcomes of GI. The authors identified relevant research gaps in the extant literature and a set of propositions that may guide future research in this area.
Research limitations/implications
This review provides a novel perspective on GISC based on a multilevel theoretical framework of mechanisms.
Practical implications
The causal mechanisms assessment of GISC can be adopted by organizations to convince their SC partners to engage in collaborative and more ambitious initiatives in the field.
Social implications
The findings of this review could serve as an argument for more encompassing and ambitious GISC initiatives which can be of benefit to society.
Originality/value
A thorough assessment of the interacting mechanisms in GISC has not been attempted before. The authors identify gaps in current literature and provide several propositions for further research avenues based on causal mechanisms framework.
... Lack of resources such as water, land, energy, [131]; [132]; [134]; [135]; [136]; [145]; [146]; [147]; [152]; [155]; [164]; [304]; [321]; [324] food and rare earth elements Waste increase ...
This report is the Deliverable 2.1 entitled “Report on trends and key factors” of the Next-net
project. The aim of the project is to put in place a cross-sectoral and cross-technological
initiative at European level to increase integration between production and distribution
proposing research and innovation priorities for the future of supply chain. The Deliverable 2.1 focuses on identifying and providing a comprehensive list of megatrends and associated trends that address critical aspects of several domains of analysis (e.g. political).
The research design adopted follows two sequential phases of data collection namely
literature review and experts workshop. The methodological approach of the first phase is
guided by PESTLE (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal and Environmental)
framework, which examines political, economic, social, technological, legal and environmental megatrends and trends that can shape the landscape of the discrete manufacturing, process manufacturing and the logistics industry. NVivo software was used for content analysis of the collected reports and articles for recognising recurring themes, namely megatrends and their associated trends. Regarding phase two, Aston University, with the support of all project partners, organised and conducted a workshop with 18 experts on December 5, 2017 in Birmingham, United Kingdom.
... In the research of transport informatization: researchers combined the views of 48 experts from 20 countries to explore the supply chain management model of the future transportation industry and logistics industry from the five Delphi methods of energy emissions, consumer behavior, future transportation mode, future supply design, and innovation and concluded that a supply chain management model that can help decision making, information sharing, and sustainability would emerge in the future and the fourth-party logistics could provide this management model [14]. ey proposed a discrete flow model to describe the reverse logistics supply chain of remanufactured products, which provided some ideas for the research of fourth-party logistics [15]. ...
Due to the problems such as the excessive proportion of road transport and extreme carbon emission situation of China’s transport structure adjustment, this paper combines the fourth-party logistics with the bulk cargo green transport. It is advancing the adjustment of China’s bulk cargo transport structure using fourth-party logistics. This paper improves the particle swarm optimization algorithm to compare the integrated cost and carbon emissions of different bulk fourth-party transport networks to verify the benefits of the fourth-party logistics on bulk cargo transport networks’ cost reduction and emission reduction. The results show that using the fourth-party logistics model to promote the transfer of cargoes from road to rail can reduce the integrated cost of the transport network, reduce carbon emissions, and achieve green transport.
... ey believed that the establishment of global value chains affects the development of industrial groups and that the restorative processes of manufacturers working on international prices are diverse. At the same time, the promotion of business groups also emphasizes cooperation between businesses and promotes promotion by local organizations [12,13]. However, the imposition of a global chain does not have a significant impact on industrial groups, and the mechanisms for the rise are unknown. ...
As the economy grows rapidly and IoT technology advances rapidly, the logistics industry as a service industry is growing rapidly around the world. The logistics industry, meanwhile, is the one that can best play the role of IoT. The rapid development of the logistics industry has brought great competition challenges to the logistics industry. To solve the competitive problems of the logistics industry cluster, this article introduces the research on the upgrade path and strategy of the logistics industry cluster based on the Internet of Things and uses the analytic hierarchy process, investigation method, and expert evaluation method to build the IoT technology information model and logistics cost. According to the established optimization model, the following are proposed: analyzing the problems existing in the logistics industry cluster, giving an upgrade path from the four aspects of manufacturing, technology, structure, and service, and giving specific strategic suggestions from the aspects of talents and enterprises. The accuracy rate of current analysis is as high as 90%, and the implementation rate of upgrade paths and strategy recommendations is as high as 95%.
... The infrastructural aspect that is relevant to this study is analyzed under the caption of logistical performance. Heiko and Darkow (2016) examined that there is a link between low-carbon scenarios and limited energy for the logistics and transportation industry. In this study, different Delphi-based scenarios have been used to identify the impacts such as incorporated low energy by logistic systems; business as usual logistics; austere logistics; measurement and control of the emissions of CO 2 , and other fuels. ...
This study aims to empirically evaluate the effect of low carbonation, crime rate, and logistical infrastructure on tourism and economic development of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) tourist countries through structural equation modeling for the sample period from 2011 to 2019. The proposed model presented six hypotheses among four constructs that suggest that logistic performance and renewable energy consumption positively affect tourism, whereas the crime rate harms tourism in ASEAN countries. As far as the economic growth of ASEAN countries is concerned, it is positively affected by logistic performance, renewable energy, and tourism. Thus, it can be concluded that better ecological conditions with less carbon emission through the use of renewable energy, efficient logistics services and infrastructure, and a peaceful environment with a low-crime rate can boost the tourists' arrival, which in turn would be beneficial for the economy of ASEAN countries.
... In complex environments with multiple external determinants and stakeholders, such as the road freight transportation environment, a Delphi survey can help in deriving plausible and consistent scenarios for the future. As such, researchers increasingly apply the Delphi method in transportation (Soria-Lara & Banister, 2017;Varho & Tapio, 2013;von der Gracht & Darkow, 2016) or policy research settings like the freightvision 2050 project of the European Commission (Keller & Helmreich, 2011). However, we build on earlier foresight research and extend perspectives by specifically focusing on the sustainability aspect in road freight transportation. ...
Organizations increasingly adopt technologies and logistics measures to improve their social sustainability, reduce transportation‐related carbon emissions, or even design their supply chains carbon negative. However, the speed at which this adoption is progressing is not fast enough to address the sustainability challenges of the world today. To gain deeper knowledge about the adoption process of sustainability‐related measures in road freight transportation, this paper examines barriers currently hindering a broader market penetration and derives expected timeframes when mass adoption of 14 relevant technologies will occur. Furthermore, the technologies' impacts on the economic, environmental, and social dimensions of sustainability are discussed providing recommendations, on which technologies the respective stakeholders might focus on in the future. Since we want to examines a long‐term technology perspective of the next 25 years, we rely on systematic foresight methodology. More specifically, we collect empirical data by use of a real‐time Delphi survey, which particularly suits complex and uncertain environments. Our global panel includes 116 experts from 25 different countries. The assessments are grouped into short‐term, midterm, midterm to long‐term, and long‐term developments. The categories shed light on potential drivers and barriers to the implementation of the surveyed technologies. The findings emphasize the need to systematically select suitable measures and promote those that are expected to deliver short‐term sustainability improvements to address current deficits in a timely manner. The article further outlines the crucial role of politics in developing necessary regulative frameworks to drive sustainability in road freight transportation.
... Appendix C: Organizational Stakeholders Over Time summarizes the organizational stakeholders involved and the different policy controls applied over the course of the seven decades, while Appendix D: Quotes Informing Business Model Analysis summarizes the key quotes informing business model analysis discussed in the next section. This methodology is widely used in public administration, policy making, and strategic decision making, and in multidimensional and complex situations (Mittal et al., 2018;Venkatesh et al., 2015;Von der Gracht and Darkow, 2016). After confirmation from the experts in the LPG sector, the business model mapping was confirmed. ...
Business model innovation in the public sector is important in creating value for citizens, industry, and government. The differing priorities of these stakeholders, which often require intervention or unification to address a societal need, are at the heart of both supply-side and demand-side strategy research. Moreover, it represents a core element of the business model innovation delivering a key commodity, liquid petroleum gas (LPG), to large populations in the developing world. In this paper, we examine varying conditions in the public sector that require both supply-side and demand-side business model innovation for value creation, capture, and appropriation through deployment of digital government initiatives and policy interventions. By analysing the Indian LPG industry over a 70-year period, we argue that the supply-side and demand-side perspective, along with the business model concept, promote a better understanding of government industry interventions in the interest of all stakeholders. Specifically, the contribution of this paper to the public sector is unique, because (i) research on demand-side strategy can help business model scholars gain a more robust, granular understanding of effective value propositions for citizens, (ii) supply-side strategy business models create a seamless delivery mechanism, and (iii) both supply-side and demand-side strategy with their unique propositions serve as a “bridging concept” in coming up with the Framework for the Customer-Integrated Public Sector Business Model that connects the shared ideas of both areas of study to resource-based streams of strategy research.
... LUT integration). Second, the primary concern of most visioning transport studies is rarely the achievement of LUT integration as a means to other major goals, such as CO 2 reduction targets and equitable access to the transport system (von der Gracht and Darkow, 2016;Hickman et al., 2011;Hickman et al., 2013;Hickman and Banister, 2014;Julsrud and Priya Uteng, 2015;Liimatainen et al., 2014;Soria-Lara and Banister, 2018b). ...
Transport scenario building is often used to examine alternative future narratives when there is considerable uncertainty or when business-as-usual is no longer appropriate. However, the potential of scenario-building narratives to achieve a more-effective integration of land use and transport in policymaking remains under-studied. This paper analyses groups of factors that influence the effectiveness of scenario-building narratives to trigger interaction processes between planning actors and thus facilitate land use and transport integration. The research uses an experimental approach based on three parallel academically constructed cases-co-creation environments with planning actors tightly controlled by researchers to explore causality. The Henares Corridor in the Madrid Metropolitan Area, Spain serves as case study. The results indicate that higher degrees of land use and transport integration are achieved when the use of scenario-building narratives facilitates complex interactions among planning actors, who employ factors from various deliberation layers (internal, individual, and global). However, the degree of land use and transport integration decreases when scenario-building narratives are paired with simpler interactions, where factors from one or two deliberation layers dominate. The paper closes by examining the implications of the obtained findings for policymaking, including a reflection on the research design validity, its limitations, and potential for application in real-life experiments.
... For example, Soria-Lara and Banister (2018a) constructed a 2050 future vision for Andalusia, Spain mostly based on public transport promotion and urban compactness, which draws a scenario highly expected for that particular geographical context. Other aspects impeding disruptive thinking are: the use of BAU projections to orient visionary participants stimulates linear thinking (Julsrud and Uteng, 2015;Piecyk and McKinnon, 2010;von der Gracht and Darkow, 2016); the construction of a single longterm vision instead of a wide range of options reduces the space for exploring divergent futures (Mason and Alamdari, 2007;Schuckmann et al., 2012;Tolley et al., 2001); people are highly influenced by context and dominant trends (e.g. technological innovations) (Soria-Lara and Banister, 2017a). ...
Participatory visioning in transport scenario building can be particularly useful to anticipate and examine unexpected outcomes over long-term future timelines, providing broad legitimacy to today's decision-making processes. However, the strategic value of participatory approaches is increasingly being contested due to the difficulty to operationalize non-linear thinking, resulting in long-term visions similar to business-as-usual projections. To address this challenge, we developed and implemented a novel participatory visioning approach based on using semi-structured interviews that incorporate two types of wild cards-low probability and high impact processes-as disruptive visioning triggers: imaginable and unimaginable processes. A group of experts evaluated the level of disruptive thinking in the generated future visions. The Henares Corridor in the Metropolitan Area of Madrid, Spain provided the empirical focus. The results present a total of seven 2050 visions: one desired common vision plus six wild card visions. Higher levels of disruptive thinking were mainly present in those future visions generated by unimaginable processes, as such processes initiate highly diverging participant future views. It was also noted that smaller and specific groups of participants can visualize 2050 futures more disruptively. Conclusions and reflections on the strengths and weakness of the presented approach are drawn.
... For example, Soria-Lara and Banister (2018a) constructed a 2050 future vision for Andalusia, Spain mostly based on public transport promotion and urban compactness, which draws a scenario highly expected for that particular geographical context. Other aspects impeding disruptive thinking are: the use of BAU projections to orient visionary participants stimulates linear thinking (Julsrud and Uteng, 2015;Piecyk and McKinnon, 2010;von der Gracht and Darkow, 2016); the construction of a single longterm vision instead of a wide range of options reduces the space for exploring divergent futures (Mason and Alamdari, 2007;Schuckmann et al., 2012;Tolley et al., 2001); people are highly influenced by context and dominant trends (e.g. technological innovations) (Soria-Lara and Banister, 2017a). ...
Participatory visioning in transport scenario building can be particularly useful to anticipate and examine unexpected outcomes over long-term future timelines, providing broad legitimacy to today's decision-making processes. However, the strategic value of participatory approaches is increasingly being contested due to the difficulty to operationalize non-linear thinking, resulting in long-term visions similar to business-as-usual projections. To address this challenge, we developed and implemented a novel participatory visioning approach based on using semi-structured interviews that incorporate two types of wild cards-low probability and high impact processes-as disruptive visioning triggers: imaginable and unimaginable processes. A group of experts evaluated the level of disruptive thinking in the generated future visions. The Henares Corridor in the Metropolitan Area of Madrid, Spain provided the empirical focus. The results present a total of seven 2050 visions: one desired common vision plus six wild card visions. Higher levels of disruptive thinking were mainly present in those future visions generated by unimaginable processes, as such processes initiate highly diverging participant future views. It was also noted that smaller and specific groups of participants can visualize 2050 futures more disruptively. Conclusions and reflections on the strengths and weakness of the presented approach are drawn.
... The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has issued important regulations on maritime transport and logistics since 1997 . The impact of shipping activities in particular and the supply chain in general on environmental pollution is highlighted in various discussions (Kim and Lee, 2012;von der Gracht Heiko and Darkow, 2016). The IMO adopted a strategy that focuses on the decrease in emissions from vessels. ...
Purpose
This study aims to evaluate cargo and eco-efficiency of global container shipping companies (CSCs) and explore the determinants of the CSCs' efficiencies. While the former is derived from the CSCs' operational perspective, the latter highlights environmental issue related to carbon emission reduction.
Design/methodology/approach
In the first stage, a two-stage double bootstrap approach of data envelopment analysis (DEA) is applied to derive bias-corrected cargo and eco-efficiency of the top ten global CSCs under the variable returns to scale assumption. In the second stage, ordinary least squares and truncated regression are applied to examine determinants of the CSCs' efficiencies.
Findings
The DEA results reveal that the cargo efficiency of the CSCs is higher than their eco-efficiency by about 2.6% under variable returns to scale in DEA. However, the bias-corrected results show that the difference is 2.9%. The overall average efficiencies suggest that the CSCs can improve their cargo (eco) efficiency by 6.9% (10.8%). In the second stage, the regression results show that the numbers of ship, return on assets and asset turnover ratio are significantly related to both cargo and eco-efficiencies, whereas the total fleet capacity positively affects cargo efficiency.
Research limitations/implications
The results of this study can help the inefficient CSCs make strategic decisions to improve their performance. For example, their business experience and capacity may be contributing to their efficiencies. However, this study only focuses on the container market among the three main markets, namely, dry bulk, wet bulk and container.
Originality/value
This study highlights an environmental issue in the shipping industry. While CSCs are operating their cargo efficiently in general, they should also put green initiatives into their business operations for the long-term sustainability.
... The International Maritime Organization has issued important regulations on maritime transport and logistics since 1997 (Lee, Kwon, & Ruan, 2019). The impact of shipping activities in particular and the supply chain in general on environmental pollution is highlighted in various discussions (Kim & Lee, 2012;von der Gracht Heiko & Darkow, 2016). The International Maritime Organization adopted a strategy that focuses on the decrease in emissions from vessels. ...
This study aims to evaluate the cargo and eco‐efficiencies of international container shipping companies (CSCs) for the period 2013–2017 for benchmarking purposes. An integration of two‐stage network directional distance function and network‐based approach in data envelopment analysis is utilized to distinguish the efficient operators. Results show that most CSCs are highly ranked in the cargo efficiency stage but lowly ranked in the eco‐efficiency stage and vice versa. This study emphasizes the strengths and weaknesses of each factor of every CSC. Results can help the inefficient CSCs find the areas for improvement by learning from their peers.
... Moreover, the development of ICT in freight transport is further facilitated by recent trends such as digitalization and Industry 4.0 that challenge the transport sector with technological innovations such as IoT, big data, cloud logistics, digital identifiers and sensor technology, blockchain and automation technology that are expected to transform the ways of doing business (Hofmann & Rüsch, 2017). Future projections for the transport and logistics industry point out ICT adoption as the enabler of transformation to a sustainable transport system (Melander, Dubois, Hedvall, & Lind, 2019;von der Gracht & Darkow, 2016) and the key to information sharing between different transport network actors (Harris, Wang, & Wang, 2015). Furthermore, industry reports pull similar strings by emphasizing how 'digital fitness', which is the ability to exploit new digital tools, will be a critical success factor for logistics sector players (Tipping & Kauschke, 2016). ...
Although it offers¹ both economic and environmental advantages particularly for long-distances, intermodal transport is still not utilized effectively, and it is challenged by many barriers to its utilization. On the other hand, the transport sector is influenced by recent trends, such as digitalization, Industry 4.0 and many technological innovations are introduced, aiming to transform the way of doing business. Therefore, understanding digitalization's potential to solve the transport sector's struggle for a higher degree of integration between different modes in intermodal transport is important. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the potential of different digital tools in mitigating barriers for increased utilization of intermodal transport. Semi-structured interviews and a policy Delphi study combined with a brainstorming session are conducted to classify various barriers for intermodal transport under certain categories and to understand if and how selected digital tools could help to mitigate these barriers. Findings indicate that the multi-actor nature of intermodal transport networks results in varying perceptions related with digital tools and technologies. This variance acts as a hindrance for digitalization within the conservative context of transportation industry and its cost-based competition structure. Adoption by market leaders, demand from intermodal transport buyers, vertical integration in intermodal transport chains are potential mitigation factors for elimination of barriers to digitalization in intermodal transportation.
... The study conducted by Heiko and Darkow [51] claimed that transportation consumes about 20% of global energy. Since it has become a challenge for logistic industries to attain sustainability in green transportation, therefore they are more focused on getting insights into the requirements and needs of their customers and instruments to support their green practices [48]. ...
Organizations of the present day have directed their work patterns by acquiring the approach of green supply chain management (GSCM), in order to combat harmful environmental concerns. The most prominent reason behind the adoption of green strategy is to reduce the burden of the polluted environment. It is a concept which identifies the relationship between the supply chain operations and the natural environment. The present chapter provides a detailed discussion regarding the application of green transportation in green supply chain management, while shedding light to the evolution of green supply chain management, and its principle along with the factors that support total quality environmental management. The overall discussion is focused by elaborating the examples of green transportation in GSCM. The discussion revealed that most of the international markets prioritize the emission of gas, rather than focusing on implementing the green technologies in transportation. Slow steaming, voyage optimization, and efficiency in port operations are some of the major recent trends of green transportation identified in green supply chain management. However, some of the common examples of green transportation in GSCM Dalsey Hillblom Lynn (DHL) model of green transportation and Ingvar Kamprad, Elmtaryd Agunnaryd (IKEA) model of green transportation which serves as the major initiatives in the management of green transportation.
... O método Delphi é uma abordagem adequada para estruturar e analisar as opiniões dos especialistas para alcançar uma compreensão dos desenvolvimentos futuros e incertos (2,5,9,18,19), para identificar problemas, soluções e desafios que são economicamente relevantes (14) e para integrar, coletar e agregar opiniões e julgamentos em um contexto de decisão coletiva (10). Alguns autores argumentam que o método Delphi é apropriado quando não é possível usar dados quantificáveis de séries temporais para fazer previsões ou decidir sobre incertezas, tornando-se possível confiar em sua própria intuição e julgamento ou recorrer aos insights de outros (20). ...
O método Delphi envolve a aplicação de múltiplas rodadas de questionários para obter opiniões de especialistas para previsão e análise científica de longo prazo. O uso desta técnica permite opiniões convergentes e divergentes dos participantes sobre um problema complexo através de várias rodadas de questionários e feedbacks entre eles, sendo considerada uma ferramenta válida para apoiar a área de gestão de projetos na resolução de problemas. O objetivo deste artigo é analisar como o método Delphi tem sido utilizado em estudos de gestão de projetos, além de apresentar o seu histórico, conceito, aplicação e possíveis variações de aplicação metodológica. Optou-se por uma abordagem de estudo qualitativo a partir do desenvolvimento da revisão sistemática da literatura, fazendo uso de publicações disponíveis nas bases de dados ISI Web of Science e Scopus. A amostra utilizada foi constituída de 16 artigos que tratam da utilização do método Delphi em estudos de gerenciamento de projetos. Buscou-se analisar as características destas pesquisas para responder a questão de pesquisa proposta. Embora tenha sido sugerida a utilização de protocolos para aplicação do método, poucos artigos seguiram a recomendação. Espera-se que a efetiva compreensão do método norteie a utilização em pesquisas científicas na área da gestão de projetos.
... The commitment of customers (also referred to as users or buyers) of logistics services can have a key impact on the sustainability practices of their LSPs. These customers may lack environmental awareness (Evangelista, 2014), prioritize cost and time over environmental friendliness (Abbasi and Nilsson, 2016;Von der Gracht and Darkow, 2016) or display a lack of interest in energy efficient products (Gupta et al., 2017). Even if customers ask their 3PLs about the latter's environmental performance, they may do so on a perfunctory basis or as a "hygienic factor" (Wolf and Seuring, 2010). ...
Purpose: Warehouses are large emitters of greenhouse gases and their impact on climate change is under increasing focus. This paper investigates the barriers that inhibit the adoption of low-carbon warehousing in Asia-Pacific and their links to carbon abatement performance.
Design/methodology/approach: An exploratory conceptual model was first developed from a literature review of the general barriers to sustainable supply chain practices and hence potentially in low-carbon warehousing. A large contract logistics services provider in the Asia-Pacific served as the subject of a case study. The perceived barriers to low-carbon warehousing were derived from an internal survey of respondents from the case company and regressed against carbon abatement outcomes at that organization's operations across the region.
Findings: Results show that the case company reduced carbon emissions by 36% on a revenue-normalized basis between 2008 and 2014, but with relatively lower success in emerging markets versus mature markets. An Elastic Net regression analysis confirms that technology and government-related factors are the most important barriers in the case company's efforts to "decarbonize" its local warehousing operations. However, results suggest the customer-related barrier, which is highly correlated with the government barrier, is in part driven by the latter.
Research limitations/implications: This case study is based on a single multinational company in Asia-Pacific, but nonetheless serves as an impetus for more cross sectional studies to form an industry-wide view.
Originality/value: An extended stewardship framework based on the natural resource-based view has been proposed, in which logistics services providers take on a proactive boundary-spanning role to lower the external barriers to low-carbon warehousing.
This thesis explores specific tensions within sustainable supply chains (SSCs), focusing on disruptive multiple-crises, also known as VUCA (volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous) events such as Covid-19 and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. A systematic literature review (SLR) probes these tensions, and data have been analysed through semi-structured interviews and examination of Blockchain blogs, utilising qualitative research methods. Three interconnected research studies form the core of this thesis. The first study reveals various barriers and tensions challenging SSCs, especially during disruptive events. An SLR highlights the significant tensions affecting SSCs, synthesizes them, and underlines directions for future research. The second study investigated how SSC leaders tackle the unique challenges presented by the global pandemic. Interviews with New Zealand executives offer vital insights and critical adaptation strategies for SSCs. This study presents a framework that explains strategic adaptations around VUCA event challenges, recommending fundamental paradigm shifts for improved decision-making, resource allocation, and operational flexibility. The third study brings a fresh perspective by viewing SSCs as value-co-creating ecosystems. It promotes using Blockchain to alleviate some of the identified tensions. The richness of this sphere is highlighted through an online content analysis of Blockchain blog discourse, which supplements the academic discussion and proposes strategies based on cross-disciplinary concepts. Set against the turbulent backdrop of multiple-crises VUCA events, this thesis aims to tackle the global challenges SSCs face. It breaks down these challenges, extracts critical lessons, and outlines paths forward for SSCs, concluding with the limitations of this research and directions for future investigation. In summary, this thesis integrates a range of methodologies and conceptual frameworks, advancing our understanding of sustainability within SSCs. It contributes practical managerial insights and leverages both traditional and emerging research avenues, offering a nuanced picture of sustainability in the SCs ecosystem. ii This thesis is dedicated to my mother, who has helped me understand the value of education. Thank you, AMMA, this is for you. iii
Energy performance and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions are crucial aspects of transport systems planning. Freight transportation is responsible for around 20% of global emissions. A large amount of cargo is transported by trucks over long-distance routes. In Brazil (the fifth-largest country globally and the largest in Latin America), this transportation mode has the highest emission in the transport industry. This paper aims to develop an exploratory analysis of impacting actions and policies to reduce emissions in Brazilian most frequent freight transportation cargo and quantitatively measure the impacts. The results reveal that the policies and actions have the potential to cut 30% of the yearly emissions in 2029, i.e., avoiding the emission of roughly five million tons of CO 2 per year. Also, they could promote expressive economic gains. The identified best practices can be replicated in global contexts with land transportation over long-distance routes, significantly contributing to reducing climate change.
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to determine if blockchain-supported carbon offset information provision and shipping options with different cost and environmental footprint implications impact consumer perceptions toward retailers and logistics service providers. Blockchain and carbon neutrality, each can be expensive to adopt and complex to manage, thus getting the “truth” on decarbonization may require additional costs for consumers.
Design/methodology/approach
Experimental modeling is used to address these critical and emergent issues that influence practices across a set of supply chain actors. Three hypotheses relating to the relationship between blockchain-supported carbon offset information and consumer perceptions and intentions associated with the product and supply chain actors are investigated.
Findings
The results show that consumer confidence increases when supply chain carbon offset information has greater reliability, transparency and traceability as supported by blockchain technology. The authors also find that consumers who are provided visibility into various shipping options and the product's journey carbon emissions and offset – from a blockchain-supported system – they are more willing to pay a premium for both the product and shipping options. Blockchain-supported decarbonization information disclosure in the supply chain can lead to organizational legitimacy and financial gains in return.
Originality/value
Understanding consumer action and sustainable consumption is critical for organizations seeking carbon neutrality. Currently, the literature on this understanding from a consumer information provision is not well understood, especially with respect to blockchain-supported information transparency, visibility and reliability. Much of the blockchain literature focuses on the upstream. This study focuses more on consumer-level and downstream supply chain blockchain implications for organizations. The study provides a practical roadmap for considering levels of blockchain information activity and consumer interaction.
Climate change is accelerating with adverse impacts on less developed and developing countries, mainly where industri-
alization and economic development are growing worldwide. However, the consequences of climate change and vulner-
abilities are not equal for all countries and communities in the world, triggering people in vulnerable areas to improve their
economic condition. Bangladesh is experiencing the impacts of climate change as one of the most vulnerable countries,
where people in coastal areas face a scarcity of resources. Hence, the coastal areas need climate-friendly business plans to
promote sustainable resource utilization while protecting the environment. Following the background, we conducted this
study to understand the people’s perception of the potential of climate-friendly business in the coastal areas of Bangla-
desh. We also uncovered the scopes and challenges, including setting the priority of the related issues through a SWOT
(Strength, Weakness, Opportunity, and Threat) analysis. We conducted 110 individual surveys, eight focus group discus-
sions, and ten key informant interviews in Khulna and Barishal districts of Bangladesh. Our findings reveal that changing
rainfall patterns affect people’s income sources, where 96% of the people identify that the increasing rate of disasters
hampers their livelihood. Also, 53.64% of the people are unaware of climate-friendly business concepts, and 85.45% of the
people positively support girls doing business in the community. Besides, the engagement of young people in the climate-
friendly industry appears as a strength, whereas financial crisis and lack of training are weaknesses. Therefore, support
of non-government organizations may emerge as an opportunity. On the other hand, the impact of the increasing rate and
intensity of disasters may fall as a threat in the future. Consequently, a collaboration of government, non-government and
local communities is needed to ensure the prospects of climate-friendly businesses in the coastal areas of Bangladesh.
Increasing sustainability is one of the core objectives of future supply chain networks. However, the ambitious economic, ecological, and social goals can only be achieved through novel technological frameworks accompanied by disruptive organizational change. The five essays of this dissertation investigate the adoption of sustainability-enhancing technologies and their underlying organizational transformations in order to reduce carbon emissions, improve economical performance, and increase social quality in logistics networks. Established methodologies in the form of case studies, managerial surveys, conceptual developments, Delphi surveys, and quantitative reviews are applied to ground this research empirically and to derive new concepts and research strategies. The results support researchers, practitioners, and politics in driving the adoption of sustainable measures and prepare organizations for future challenges. The first research paper, “Blockchain technology enabling the Physical Internet – A synergetic application framework”, studies the Physical Internet as an upcoming logistics concept that aims for a paradigm shift towards economically, environmentally, and socially sustainable logistics. The concept receives growing interest but requires transformations in infrastructure, technology, and business models, which existing literature intends to answer with centralized platform solutions. The paper demonstrates that centralized solutions do not meet the requirements to efficiently operate open logistics networks. Therefore, a decentralized solution is proposed which builds on a four-layered Blockchain-based framework. The framework describes in detail the configuration of the Blockchain and its integration into the Physical Internet. The implementation of the framework into the Ethereum environment is validated by an application use case that guides researchers for further analysis and practitioners for adoption opportunities. Thus, this scientific work not only contributes to a deeper understanding of the promising Physical Internet concept but also extends the knowledge about applying Blockchain technology in logistics and supply chain management in general. The second research paper, “The bumpy road to the adoption of the Physical Internet – Overcoming barriers from a stakeholder perspective”, empirically grounds drivers and barriers of the Physical Internet through a case study with 14 relevant stakeholders. This approach is distinctive, as the field is so far dominated by conceptual and modeling research. The case study sample consists of logistics service providers, shippers, and includes companies working on Physical Internet products and software. This way, the study holistically embraces the majority of the concepts’ relevant stakeholders. Based on technology adoption theory, insights about stakeholder intentions, organizational and technological readiness as well as enablers and hindrances of the concept are pointed out. As such, the study answers the two research questions regarding how and why relevant stakeholders might adopt the Physical Internet. Due to the expected far-reaching consequences of the concept at the firm level, the study contributes to a better understanding of how innovative concepts and technologies induce organizational transformations. This empirical study is the first, which scientifically investigates stakeholder intentions in the adoption process of the Physical Internet. The third essay, “How organizations prepare for the future: A comparative study of firm size and industry”, analyses future preparedness as a joint construct consisting of a company’s exploitation and exploration capabilities. While previous publications focused their research on large companies and single industries, this essay explicitly differentiates future preparedness strategies between large organizations and small and medium-sized companies, as well as between 12 different industries. Data from a managerial survey with 602 companies of the German economy identify firm size and industry as predictors for future preparedness strategies and implicate that the scope of future preparedness augments with firm size. Next to the managerial implications, which should motivate practitioners to engage in corporate foresight activities and to take a forward view for being prepared for environmental uncertainty, the study extends theory on the upcoming future preparedness phenomenon. The fourth paper, “Technology foresight for sustainable road freight transportation”, examines technological measures to improve the triple bottom line sustainability of road freight transportation. The speed at which the adoption of relevant sustainability technologies in transportation is currently progressing is too slow in order to sufficiently reduce carbon emissions and increase social quality in logistics networks. Hence, this study offers deeper knowledge about the adoption process by examining barriers hindering a broader market penetration. Based on these barriers, expected timeframes are derived answering the question when mass adoption of 14 technologies is expected to occur. Combined with the technologies’ impacts on sustainability, recommendations are made, on which technologies relevant stakeholders might focus on in the future. The study builds on a global Delphi survey with 116 experts from 25 different countries and in particular outlines the crucial role of politics in developing necessary regulative frameworks to drive sustainability in road freight transportation. The fifth paper, “Decarbonizing road freight transportation – A bibliometric network analysis”, extends the findings from the fourth paper by analyzing in detail the literature on environmental sustainability measures in road freight transportation. The study is the first attempt that quantitatively synthesizes the extensive multidisciplinary area of green road freight transportation. In the study, bibliographic coupling and network analysis techniques are leveraged to identify emerging areas and trends of the research field. As such, the study outlines and visualizes key research clusters to understand the underlying knowledge structures regarding strategies, methods, theories, and concepts. As a result, a detailed research agenda and explicit recommendations for decision-makers are derived.
This study explores the carbon emission reduction effect of the transportation structure adjustment from the perspectives of transportation structure optimization and transportation mode shift. A multi-objective optimization model of China’s transportation structure is constructed, and the transportation structure is then adjusted by combing the multi-objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO) algorithm and compromise programming technique. Under the premise of ensuring the economic and social effects, the largest carbon emission reduction effect of the transportation structure is acquired. The results indicate that the transportation structure optimization reduces carbon emissions by 12.70%. Optimization in the western region has the largest carbon emission reduction effect, followed by that of the central and eastern regions. Furthermore, the carbon emission reduction effect of the shift mode “road to rail” increases uninhibitedly with the increase in the shift range. However, the same effect of “road to water” has an upper limit. “Road to rail” is found to be more effective in the eastern region, whereas “road to water” is more effective in the central and western regions.
Delphi is a scientific method to organize and structure an expert discussion aiming to generate insights on controversial topics with limited information. The technique has seen a rise in publication frequency in various disciplines, especially over the past decades. In April 2021, the term Delphi method yielded 28,200 search hits in Google Scholar for the past five years alone. Given the increasing level of uncertainty caused by rapid technological and social change around the globe, collective expert opinions and assessments are likely to gain even more importance. Therefore, the paper at hand presents technical recommendations derived from a Delphi study that was conducted amid the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.
● The paper comprehensively demonstrates how to prepare, conduct, and analyze a Delphi study. In this regard, it combines several methodological advancements of the recent past (e.g., dissent analyses, scenario analyses) with state-of-the-art impulses from other disciplines like strategic management (e.g., fuzzy clustering), psychology (e.g., sentiment analyses), or clinical trials (e.g., consensus measurement).
● By offering insights on the variety of possibilities to exploit Delphi-based data, we aim to support researchers across all disciplines in conducting Delphi studies and potentially expand and improve the method's field of application.
In the field of supply chain management (SCM), attracting and developing appropriate talent is critical for achieving most SCM goals, as extensive skills are necessary to do the job properly. In order to ensure that future‐proof talent can continue to emerge in this discipline, the role of SCM executives is extremely important. Although many studies have been conducted in the field of talent management (TM), the future role of SCM executives has been mostly neglected in research. The present empirical study addresses this gap, taking into consideration the fourth industrial revolution, as innovation in technology continues to drive significant changes in the SCM field. Aiming to investigate the extent to which increasing digitalization is influencing the future role of SCM executives, a Delphi study with 103 experts from industry, academics, and politics/associations was carried out. In order to identify meaningful topic clusters from the data, fuzzy c‐means clustering was used. From an actor‐network theory perspective, our results show that in some areas of TM, digitalization is leading to a strong fusion of SCM executives and digital technologies, as well as to a clear division of roles, in which either SCM leaders or technology will dominate in the future.
Companies operate in a macro-environment that is changing considerably due to large, transformative global forces namely megatrends and trends. The wave of these megatrends and trends generates new prospects as well as challenges for the future of supply chains. This chapter provides a review of 23 major megatrends and 72 trends identified in multiple dimensions along Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal, and Environmental (PESTLE) dimensions. The results are based on a systematic literature review and an experts’ workshop, and can be used to generate future supply chain scenarios.
Improving sustainability in transportation is one of the major focuses in recent years for many globalized manufacturing industries, including fashion. This chapter discusses key questions and challenges for various methods of transportation that are shaping current trends and make reflection in the fashion industry. This chapter employed the approach “Avoid-Shift-Improve” in transportation management recommended by the United Nations Secretary-General's High-Level Advisory Group on Sustainable Transport. In this paper the authors have examined various methods of transportation that are shaping current trends, including sustainable modes such as centralization distribution and full truck load and shifting transport to improve trip efficiency and environmental outcomes. The chapter provides potential benefits of incorporating the sustainable transport and logistics systems of narrowing, slowing and closing resource loops into fashion industry business models.
With continuous change in the global and domestic markets for TPL services, it becomes imperative that both users and providers of TPL services equip themselves with the best in terms of strategy, processes and technology. One of the ways this can be achieved is to bridge the gap between what the industry wants and what research provides. This paper conducts a systematic literature review of research output on TPL vis-à-vis how the industry views the challenges faced by it in TPL services. The paper identifies that future research should focus on driving innovation particularly within the last mile by utilizing route optimization, incentivized scheduling, and real-time electronic tracking and communication. It should also focus on how to leverage employees and provide added value to shippers. Supply chain transformation through improved logistics optimization and improved integration across the supply chain is also another important avenue to pursue in future.
"Smart cities" have become the development direction pursued by city leaders to address challenges related to rapid growth in urban areas. The sustainable development of the logistics sector has important practical significance for the evolution of smart cities. This study assessed the inefficiency rate and total factor productivity (TFP) of logistics in 36 Chinese cities from 2006 to 2015. The directional distance function (DDF) and Luenberger productivity index analytical approaches were used to assess the relevant parameters. The results revealed that the logistics system inefficiency rate of the eastern region was much higher than that of the central and western regions, while that of the western region was slightly higher than that of the central region. This study identified the main constraints of the logistics TFP in different regions in China. This finding is used to promote policy-making and investment planning to improve China's competitive advantage. The results documented that the central region of China needs to accelerate logistics reforms and use its location advantage of its location to form an organic connection with the eastern and western regions. Countries can use such metrics to take actions to improve their logistics performance, as such an improvement has a causal relationship with economic development.
Due to the recent attention gained by sustainability issues in the context of supply chains, the aim of this study is to present a model developed under Microsoft Excel™ for the assessment of the economic and environmental dimensions of a fashion supply chain, sector that deserves particular attention being one of the most polluting in the world. The assessment of the economic dimension is made through the evaluation of the total cost incurred in each process of the supply chain, while the environmental aspect is evaluated in terms of the carbon dioxide emissions generated. Specifically, in this paper the modelling of the warehouse function is detailed. To test the effectiveness of the model a case study is carried out on a fashion company based in the North of Italy; the key results are reported in the manuscript, showing where the majority of costs and emissions are generated. Information obtained from this tool can support the company’s management in their operational decisions and show where to focus their attention to enhance the economic and environmental sustainability.
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to update the work of Carter and Easton (2011), by conducting a systematic review of the sustainable supply chain management (SSCM) literature in the primary logistics and supply chain management journals, during the 2010–2018 timeframe.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors use a systematic literature review (SLR) methodology which follows the methodology employed by Carter and Easton (2011). An evaluation of this methodology, using the Modified AMSTAR criteria, demonstrates a high level of empirical validity.
Findings
The field of SSCM continues to evolve with changes in substantive focus, theoretical lenses, unit of analysis, methodology and type of analysis. However, there are still abundant future research opportunities, including investigating under-researched topics such as diversity and human rights/working conditions, employing the group as the unit of analysis and better addressing empirical validity and social desirability bias.
Research limitations/implications
The findings result in prescriptions and a broad agenda to guide future research in the SSCM arena. The final section of the paper provides additional avenues for future research surrounding theory development and decision making.
Originality/value
This SLR provides a rigorous, methodologically valid review of the continuing evolution of empirical SSCM research over a 28-year time period.
Climate change is forcing governments and businesses to explore mitigation strategies to avoid future catastrophe. There is an urgent need to manage climate change risks in global supply chains. Following a systematic literature review and text mining approach, 90 interdisciplinary articles between the years 2005 and 2018 were studied. Thematic and descriptive analysis identifies sources, consequences and control mechanisms for the climate change risks. It is found that climate change driven by extreme weather conditions significantly impacts food production, natural resources and transportation worldwide. This direct impact on food, mining and logistics sectors cascades into other interlinked global supply chain network. Climate change and supply chains are found to be mutually influencing each other through natural disasters and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions respectively. A systems theory driven, novel supply chain risk management framework for managing climate change risks is proposed. The study contributes to supply chain risk management literature by capturing the nexus between climate change and supply chain management.
Keywords:
Climate change, Climate risk, Supply chain risk management, Systems theory, Systematic literature review
Path planning is an important part of logistics management and an important part of intelligent transportation system. The shortest path problem in graph theory is the theoretical basis of path planning. On this basis, this paper studies the application of graph theory in logistics management and transportation linkage and its computer-Aided model design. In order to give full play to the advantages of the optimized road network model, this paper adopts the matching path planning algorithm and control strategy. The optimized road network model puts forward a partition method based on data quantity and connectivity principle and realizes the equalization of partition data quantity. Compared with the general road network model, the established road network partition is more reasonable and more in line with the actual requirements of the path planning algorithm. Through the research in this paper, it provides a reasonable and effective solution for practical application, which is innovative and practical.
This is a BOOK on the Delphi Method published in the early 70's. It is very basic and the first two chapters are a necessary introduction.
The first chapter explains the method and the second gives the influences of different philosophies of truth on how they impact the design of a Delphi. Even different sciences have different types of concepts for what is truth in that scientific field. Many applications of Delphi require using experts in numerous sciences to understand the totality of problem being examined.
the online access to the delphi method book allows the user to download separate chapters or separate papers in a chapter.
Corporate responsibility (CR) in general, and sustainable supply chain management in particular, have been a growing concern for companies and researchers over the past decade. However, in scholarly work, sustainability has often been dealt with in a generic fashion or from an anecdotal point of view. Further, research works examining CR on the one hand and sustainable supply chains on the other have been conducted separately. We undertake the multiple factor analysis of a CR rating database (Innovest) which reports longitudinal scores for both the social and environmental performance of 1198 companies in different countries and distinct industries, to demonstrate a strong relationship between CR and a sustainable supply chain. Our findings from exploratory analysis also illustrate the role of country of origin and industry in shaping CR behaviour, highlighting isomorphic as well as allomorphic trends for CR trough time. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.
In this article, the main strategic focuses facing Finnish agriculture in the future are presented. These strategic focuses were studied using a Delphi technique by experts within the Finnish agri-food sector. Based on this study, the top 10-points and a strategic challenge evaluation of the key topics within the agricultural policy agenda are presented. The future pressures on Finnish agriculture in three dimensions, by importance, by difference in desirable and probable future images, and by certainty rating are examined. The study also extends its scrutiny on those topics that are less important according to the panel. In conclusion, a synthesis of the strategic challenges facing the agricultural sector is presented.
In response to a request by the guest editors, we have set down our thoughts regarding the evolution of Delphi, beginning with our immersion in the subject in the late 1960s and concluding with some rumination about its future. Our focus is on the changing roles of Delphi. Most importantly, with the profound impact of the internet on organizational and community planning systems, it will foster a new age of participation through communication, coordination, and collaboration.
The policy delphi is a specific design to address a policy issue that has many alternative resolutions to the solution of the policy issue.
It starts with a literature search to establish all the different published resolutions of the policy or recommend ones. The paper describes how the respondents to the Delphi should vote on the different resolutions for
desirability and feasible. Any respondent can mage positive or negative comments about the issue and anyone can vote on any of these comments for the true or false measure and the feasibility measure as well.
Participants may change (at any time) their votes at any time due to the contributions of the participants. Ideally this is done online and may be entered at any time for any participant and the system shows the user new items or new vote values they have not seen. The user may also review any part of the delphi they wish to see at that time. They may also introduce at any time new policy resolutions and new comments. The published paper has an example topic. It can be done as an mailed set of rounds also but it does make it harder to make a lot of dynamic changes to earlier rounds.
Adapting to change in the contextual environment is one of the key challenges for managers as they try to ensure the survival and longevity of their organization. Yet, both the literature and the textbooks on the subject area of the contextual environment lack unequivocal conceptual and practical guidance for managers interested in this area of management practice. In this paper, we evaluate the seminal studies on understanding the environment, as well as the leading North American and European strategy textbooks, to determine the contemporary appropriateness of the approaches advocated for analyzing the contextual environment and the implications these have for the managers of an organization. We discuss the limitations of these approaches and posit an alternative framework—scenario planning—to help improve the process of analyzing and understanding the environment and to help in adapting to change in the environment. We illustrate the advantages of scenario planning over other approaches using a case example.
The emphasis in the Delphi literature to date has been on results rather than on methodology and evaluation of design features. The other articles in this chapter do address the latter aspects. Still, quite a number of issues remain unsolved, particularly those concerned with the details of the internal structure of the Delphi. For example
The dynamic capabilities framework analyzes the sources and methods of wealth creation and capture by private enterprise firms operating in environments of rapid technological change. The competitive advantage of firms is seen as resting on distinctive processes (ways of coordinating and combining), shaped by the firm's (specific) asset positions (such as the firm's portfolio of difficult-to-trade knowledge assets and complementary assets), and the evolution path(s) it has adopted or inherited. The importance of path dependencies is amplified where conditions of increasing returns exist. Whether and how a firm's competitive advantage is eroded depends on the stability of market demand, and the ease of replicability (expanding internally) and imitatability (replication by competitors). If correct, the framework suggests that private wealth creation in regimes of rapid technological change depends in large measure on honing internal technological, organizational, and managerial processes inside the firm. In short, identifying new opportunities and organizing effectively and efficiently to embrace them are generally more fundamental to private wealth creation than is strategizing, if by strategizing one means engaging in business conduct that keeps competitors off balance, raises rival's costs, and excludes new entrants. © 2003 by World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd. All rights reserved.
International progress to prevent serious climate change is being achieved at a grossly inadequate rate. But, as long as negotiations continue to be based upon the polarised positions of power politics and a persistent reluctance to embrace radical change, global greenhouse gas emissions will go on rising.
Strategicplanning identifies a department's environmental factors while establishing itspurpose, mission, philosophy andgoals and developing a long-range plan and objectives. This hospital's practical approach mirrors the nursing process related to assessment, di,agnosis and planning, implementation and evaluation.
It is becoming increasingly important to think about longer term possibilities and directions that are trend breaking and can help anticipate the unexpected. The future is perhaps becoming less certain, or at least uncertainty is a central feature of future trajectories. This paper discusses the role that different types of scenarios can play in helping derive potential transport futures – including issues of possibility, plausibility and desirability – giving examples of each. It then contextualises the scenarios, emphasising the need for the longer view, the importance of decarbonising the economy, and in engaging decisions makers at all levels in a fully participatory process to confront the need for strong action on mitigation and adaptation. This is illustrated with an example from Delhi to demonstrate some of the recent developments and applications of these principles. Finally, some comments are made on the issues relating to improving our understanding of sustainability, and the difficulty of making radical changes to individual and societal values, and to travel behaviours, often requiring immediate and large scale actions.
Stakeholders have been found to be an important driver of organizations' sustainable development. In particular, customers, governments and non‐governmental organizations push firms towards sustainability. But to what extent is sustainability really and deeply embedded within an organization's structures and processes? And what is the role of an important, but frequently neglected, stakeholder group for successful sustainability implementation: employees? The objective of this research is to better understand the impact that organizational change for sustainability has on firm performance. Also, this study seeks to understand how the consideration of employees into the process of organizational change for sustainability moderates the organizational change and performance relationship. Using data from 92 German companies from the manufacturing and services sector, the study finds that the structural implementation of sustainability is positively related to firm performance and that employee integration moderates this relationship to some extent. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.
Sustainable Development and Environmental Policy are becoming increasingly important in the development of business strategies. Consequently, corporate road freight transport comes under particular scrutiny due to its substantial impact on the environment. This paper explores the implementation of environmental management in the Austrian road freight transport sector. A model based on an extensive literature review is developed and adapted to show the impact of attitude, company size and sector affiliation. It is tested using data from a quantitative survey. Based on an extensive literature review a model of influencing factors is developed and tested using data from a quantitative survey. According to our findings, we adopted the model with respect to the impact of attitude, company size and sector affiliation. Although decision‐makers' attitudes have a significant influence on the companies' actual environmental performance, firm size and sector affiliation are shown to have a far greater influence. It is therefore necessary to offer external incentives and support in order to improve environmental behaviour, especially among smaller and transport companies. Such instruments, however, need to be aligned on an international basis and across industries to prevent friction and competitive disadvantage. In addition to policy intervention (legal restrictions and incentives) and improvements on a corporate level, consumer awareness should be raised in order to create public pressure for companies to implement environmental management. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.
Purpose
– Consumer goods supply chains (SCs) are characterized by continuously changing customer trends. Early detection of these trends is crucial for deriving successful long-term SC strategies. The purpose of this paper is to present a systematic process to support decision makers in assessing future-relevant issues and developing strategies.
Design/methodology/approach
– In order to contribute to the quality of long-term decision making for SC strategy, we combine strategic issue management (SIM) and corporate foresight methodology. The authors develop a procedure that integrates the Delphi technique and SIM to empirically demonstrate how “Delphi-based SIM” can support SC strategy development.
Findings
– The paper demonstrates how to craft a strategy for consumer goods SCs supported by Delphi-based SIM. The authors are able to include and evaluate uncertain and ambivalent future developments. Pertinent strategic issues for the consumer goods SC include: consumer demographics, automated ordering, city supply, and concept stores. For the reference company, five different strategic paths were created and evaluated.
Practical implications
– It is challenging for companies to be well prepared for dynamic business environments and to successfully establish a robust SC strategy. The authors develop a systematic Delphi-based SIM for detecting and evaluating signals and integrating them into SC strategy development.
Originality/value
– To date, a structured approach to integrate uncertain and ambivalent issues into SC strategy development is missing. With SIM and corporate foresight, the authors provide novel methods for strategy development in the consumer goods SC.
We present the results of three field experiments demonstrating the effect of scenario planning on field experts’ judgment of several long-range investment decisions. Our results show, contrary to the past findings, that the use of multiple scenarios does not cause an aggregate increase or decrease in experts’ confidence in their judgment. Rather, expert judgment changes in accordance with how an investment fares in a given scenario: it becomes more favorable if the investment is found to be useful for a particular scenario used by the expert, and vice versa. This scenario-induced change is moderated by the expert's confidence in his/her judgment before using the scenario. Finally, our results show that field experts prefer more flexible options to make specific long-range investments after using multiple scenarios.
Governments around the world are investing significant resources in the development of logistics clusters. This paper develops a methodology for identifying them and applies it to answer several lingering questions in the context of the US. It contributes to a more general debate in the general industrial clusters literature: while many authors see industrial clusters growing, others see them dispersing. To answer this and related questions in the context of logistics clusters the paper first analyzes the prevalence of such clusters using a two-index methodology to identify clusters in the US. Evidence of increasing concentration of the logistics industry in clusters in the US over time is tested and documented. In addition, some evidence that logistics activities in counties inside clusters show higher growth than counties outside clusters is found.
In this paper, the potential of bioenergy production in agriculture (preferred and probable futures) is scrutinised using the Delphi method. We present a case of northern possibilities to utilise renewable energy sources within agriculture in a form of alternative bioenergy scenarios. Altogether 20 experts participated in the Delphi process which outlines the future of bioenergy production in Finland. The first round of the Delphi study was carried out by semi-structured interviews and the second feedback round by means of a mail questionnaire. Background information of key variables was presented to the panellists who responded with their views on developments between 2004 and 2025. Alternative scenarios were then constructed from these dimensions with cluster analysis in line with the Disaggregative Policy Delphi (DPD) approach. Quantitative statements were complemented with the experts' argumentation. Five scenarios were constructed: 1) Renewable prosperity, 2) Incremental change, 3) Vision of sun, wind and wood, 4) Let's burn it all, and 5) Flood of waterpower. After the Delphi rounds, a dialogue seminar for the agri-technology experts and policy-makers was organised. These results bring to the table an agri-food technology expert community view of the future directions for Finnish agro-bioenergy use.
a b s t r a c t The logistics services industry will be significantly affected by future developments throughout the world. Therefore, developing future scenarios is an important basis for long-term strategy development. Nevertheless, research exposes that there is a lack of awareness among logistics researchers and practitioners about future scenarios. In this paper, we apply scenario planning and present the findings of an extensive Delphi-based scenario study on the future of the logistics services industry in the year 2025. The major contribution of our research is the development of probable and unforeseen scenarios of the future which may provide a valuable basis for strategy development in the logistics services industry.
A novel and innovative real-time Delphi technique is introduced in order to address previously identified weaknesses of the conventional Delphi method, such as complicated facilitator tasks, lack of real-time presentation of results, and difficulties in tracking progress over time. We demonstrate how the real-time (computer-based) method increases the efficiency of the process, accommodates expert availability, and reduces drop-out-rates. Modifications in the Delphi procedure (e.g. change of iteration principle) not only increase efficiency but also change the nature and process of the survey technique itself. By identifying and analysing three individual effects (initial condition effect, feedback effect, and iteration effect) we examine whether the modifications in the survey process cause deviations to the survey results. Empirical data obtained from both conventional as well as real-time Delphi studies is analysed based on multiple statistical analyses. The research findings indicate that significant differences between the two Delphi survey formats do not exist and final survey results are not affected by changes in the survey procedure.
The purpose of this paper is the empirical investigation of the status quo of green supply chain management in the German automotive industry from a practitioner's point of view. Several aspects of green supply chain management, such as the point of time of implementation, the driving forces, the relevance of intended goals and their particular realization and the adoption of eco-programs with suppliers and customers as well as internal and external barriers are analyzed. Furthermore, the link to different performance criteria is tested by inductive statistics in order to show the potential of green supply chain management for competitiveness. For this study, managers from the automotive supply industry in Germany were asked about their estimations in this regard. The main conclusion is that managers express the need for green supply chain management on the one hand but also see corresponding problems in terms of required resources on the other hand. Furthermore, the analyses show that green supply chain management leads to higher performance in terms of several performance criteria. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.
Climate change is a global problem and across the world the transport sector is finding it difficult to break projected increases in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions; there are very few contexts where deep reductions in transport CO2 emissions are being made. A number of research studies are now examining the potential for future lower CO2 emissions in the transport sector. This paper develops this work to consider some of the wider sustainability impacts (economic, social and local environmental) as well as the lower CO2 transport impacts of different policy trajectories. Hence the central argument made is for an integrated approach to transport policy making over the longer term - incorporating scenario analysis and multi-criteria assessment (MCA) - to help assess likely progress against a range of objectives. The analysis is based on work carried out in Oxfordshire, UK. Different packages of measures are selected and two scenarios developed which satisfy lower CO2 aspirations, one of which also provides wider positive sustainability impacts. A simulation model has been produced to help explore the strategic policy choices and tensions evident for decision-makers involved in local transport planning. The paper argues for a 'strategic conversation' (Van der Heijden, 1996) at the sub-regional and city level, based upon future scenario analysis and MCA, discussing the priorities for intervention. Such an approach will help us examine the scale of change and trade-offs required in moving towards sustainable transport futures.
What does global corporate citizenship mean? In the absence of formal definitions, a place where understandings of corporate citizenship can be found is corporate texts. From the perspectives of sociological institutional theory and strategic legitimacy theory, we utilized critical discourse analysis as a methodology to study the corporate sustainability reports of multinational automotive corporations. We observed isomorphic themes that constitute socially constructed expectations of global corporate citizenship regarding climate change. We also observed heterogeneity in how these themes are manifested. We examined the rhetorical features of these reports as ways that corporations strategically position themselves in the global marketplace.
This paper seeks to develop a deeper understanding of the research on climate change mitigation in transport. We suggest that work to date has focused on the effects of improvements in transport technologies, changes in the price of transport, physical infrastructure provision, behavioural change and alternative institutional arrangements for governing transport systems. In terms of research methodologies, positivist and quantitative analysis prevails, although there are signs of experimentation with non-positivist epistemologies and participatory methods. These particular engagements with climate change mitigation reflect mutually reinforcing tendencies within and beyond the academic transport community. We first draw on a revised version of Thomas Kuhn’s philosophy of science to explore the path dependencies within transport studies, which are at least partly responsible for the predisposition towards quantitative modelling and technology, pricing and infrastructure oriented interventions in transport systems. We then employ the governmentality perspective to examine how transport academics’ engagements with climate change mitigation depend on and align with more general understandings of climate change in UK society and beyond. The analysis makes clear that ecological modernisation and neo-liberal governmentality more generally provide the context for the current focus on and belief in technological, behaviour change, and especially market-based mitigation strategies. While current research trajectories are important and insightful, we believe that a deeper engagement with theoretical insights from the social sciences will produce richer understandings of transport mitigation in transport and briefly outline some of the contributions thinking on socio-technical transitions and practice theories can make.
With increasing demand for air transportation worldwide and decreasing marginal fuel efficiency improvements, the contribution of aviation to climate change relative to other sectors is projected to increase in the future. As a result, growing public and political pressures are likely to further target air transportation to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. The key challenges faced by policy makers and air transportation industry stakeholders is to reduce aviation greenhouse gas emissions while sustaining mobility for passengers and time-sensitive cargo as well as meeting future demand for air transportation in developing and emerging countries. This paper examines five generic policies for reducing the emissions of commercial aviation; (1) technological efficiency improvements, (2) operational efficiency improvements, (3) use of alternative fuels, (4) demand shift and (5) carbon pricing (i.e. market-based incentives). In order to evaluate the impacts of these policies on total emissions, air transport mobility, airfares and airline profitability, a system dynamics modeling approach was used. The Global Aviation Industry Dynamics (GAID) model captures the systemic interactions and the delayed feedbacks in the air transportation system and allows scenarios testing through simulations. For this analysis, a set of 34 scenarios with various levels of aggressiveness along the five generic policies were simulated and tested. It was found that no single policy can maintain emissions levels steady while increasing projected demand for air transportation. Simulation results suggest that a combination of the proposed policies does produce results that are close to a “weak” sustainability definition of increasing supply to meet new demand needs while maintaining constant or increasing slightly emissions levels. A combination of policies that includes aggressive levels of technological and operations efficiency improvements, use of biofuels along with moderate levels of carbon pricing and short-haul demand shifts efforts achieves a 140% increase in capacity in 2024 over 2004 while only increasing emissions by 20% over 2004. In addition, airline profitability is moderately impacted (10% reduction) compared to other scenarios where profitability is reduced by over 50% which pose a threat to necessary investments and the implementation of mitigating measures to reduce CO2 emissions. This study has shown that an approach based on a portfolio of mitigating measures and policies spanning across technology and operational improvements, use of biofuels, demand shift and carbon pricing is required to transition the air transportation industry close to an operating point of environmental and mobility sustainability.
This study adopts the prospective perspective in an attempt to explore and define the risks of future drugs. The use of the Delphi method in this study is substantiated by its psychological, financial, and (in the case of the pharmaceutical field) relevant advantages. This study is one of the first Delphi studies to fully utilize Internet (also referred to as the worldwide web [www]) html technology to collect and process data. The two rounds of questionnaires seek both qualitative and quantitative data through Likert-scale questions with mandatory open-ended questions for argumentation. Thirty (round 1) and 22 (round 2) top-level experts drawn from all of the pharmaceutical research and development organizations in Denmark participated. This study concludes that risks of future drugs expand and develop beyond our existing assessment and perception mechanisms. They have the ability to transform side effects from the traditional individual physical level to a societal level with economic, political, and ethical consequences. The study identifies several serious bottlenecks in drug discovery and development in the future; paradigm conflicts and, more important, the assessment of risks associated with future drugs need new and alternative methods and assessment procedures. This is essential in order to capture and cope with the unseen and new side effects that the emergence of the “informational paradigm” within the field of drugs will undoubtedly bring about.
Sandro Mendonça is lecturer at the Department of Economics, ISCTE Lisbon University Institute. He is a researcher at Dinâmia, ERC, CISEP and UECE and is a member of the executive board of Obercom, Portugal's independent communication and the media watch (www.obercom.pt). He was educated in economics at the Technical University of Lisbon and Erasmus University of Rotterdam. He holds a masters degree in Science & Technology Policy from SPRU, University of Sussex, where he is currently completing his doctorate. In his consultancy and advice activities he has interacted with many public and private organisations in areas such as innovation policy, intellectual property and strategic management. His work has appeared in journals like Research Policy, Industrial & Corporate Change, Journal of Economic Issues, Economics of Innovation & New Technology, Technological Forecasting & Social Change. sfm@iscte.pt, s.m.mendonca@sussex.ac.uk
Supply chain management, a field that developed from business practice and research, is undergoing a major transformation. It is changing from tactical in nature (where the major focus is on cost and delivery) to a field that is strategic in nature. However, the future issues and challenges facing managers and executives are just now becoming understood. This paper reports these issues by drawing on the findings generated by a three-phase study consisting of a literature review, a two-round Delphi study, and a workshop. Unique in this Delphi study is that it brings together leading practitioners in supply chain management with leading supply chain management researchers. The findings show that while the focus of the current tactical supply chain view is relatively limited to issues of delivery, risk, and leadership, the supply chain view of the future (i.e., five years from now) is more complex and demanding. The findings also show that there is generally no difference between researchers and practitioners in terms of how they view the issues. Finally, the study uncovers major obstacles that must be resolved before the strategic potential of future-state supply chains can be realised.
The dynamic capabilities framework analyzes the sources and methods of wealth creation and capture by private enterprise firms operating in environments of rapid technological change. The competitive advantage of firms is seen as resting on distinctive processes (ways of coordinating and combining), shaped by the firm's (specific) asset positions (such as the firm's portfolio of difftcult-to- trade knowledge assets and complementary assets), and the evolution path(s) it has aflopted or inherited. The importance of path dependencies is amplified where conditions of increasing retums exist. Whether and how a firm's competitive advantage is eroded depends on the stability of market demand, and the ease of replicability (expanding intemally) and imitatability (replication by competitors). If correct, the framework suggests that private wealth creation in regimes of rapid technological change depends in large measure on honing intemal technological, organizational, and managerial processes inside the firm. In short, identifying new opportunities and organizing effectively and efficiently to embrace them are generally more fundamental to private wealth creation than is strategizing, if by strategizing one means engaging in business conduct that keeps competitors off balance, raises rival's costs, and excludes new entrants. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Supply chain risk management (SCRM) is of growing importance, as the vulnerability of supply chains increases. The main thrust of this article is to describe how Ericsson, after a fire at a sub-supplier, with a huge impact on Ericsson, has implemented a new organization, and new processes and tools for SCRM. The approach described tries to analyze, assess and manage risk sources along the supply chain, partly by working close with suppliers but also by placing formal requirements on them. This explorative study also indicates that insurance companies might be a driving force for improved SCRM, as they now start to understand the vulnerability of modern supply chains. The article concludes with a discussion of risk related to traditional logistics concepts (time, cost, quality, agility and leanness) by arguing that supply chain risks should also be put into the trade-off analysis when evaluating new logistics solutions – not with the purpose to minimize risks, however, but to find the efficient level of risk and prevention.
Scenarios hold little interest if they are not pertinent, coherent, and plausible. Although foresight requires a rigorous approach to address complex problems, the tools must also be simple enough to be easily used. Since the mid-1980s, the approach in strategic prospective workshops (a term that reminds us of the participatory nature of the French approach) has proven its effectiveness in meeting these criteria (simple, rigorous and appropriable; i.e., may be appropriated by participants). The authors try to reply to simple and important questions: What is a scenario? How to judge the quality of a scenario? Which strategies for which scenarios? These questions remind us that applications of strategic foresight tools are contingent and modular. They could also involve the stakeholders from upstream to downstream, as seen in the agro-food sector. Finally, they argue that the future still has to be built and that futurists produced too many scenarios and not enough projects.
The authors have recently developed a new approach to performing a Delphi study that does not involve the use of sequential “rounds” and as a result, greatly improves the efficiency of the process and shortens the time to perform such studies. This paper describes this process, RT Delphi, and illustrates its use in a decision-making application drawn from the Millennium Project of the American Council for the United Nations University. The illustrative application involves setting priorities among strategies for dealing with anticipated terrorist activities that might be initiated by a single deranged individual.