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Climate change and indicators of probable shifts in the consumption portfolios of dryland farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa: Implications for policy

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... This situation can have significant income implications in Pakistan, with potentially important ramifications for rural farm households' expenditures on health and child education, as well as in entrepreneurial investments, all of which affect development trajectories (Amjath-Babu et al., 2016;Govt. of Pakistan, 2016). Quantification of the effect of climatic variability on the economic efficiency of rice and wheat production is therefore warranted. ...
... In addition to indicators of climatic variability, farmers' education level, access to credit and extension services positively influenced economic efficiency, for reasons similar to those previously discussed by Arshad et al. (2016aArshad et al. ( , 2016b in Pakistan, and Aravindakshan et al. (2016) in Bangladesh. Extension in particular had a significant influence on efficiency in both the OLS and quantile regressions at all quantile levels (all P < 0.001). ...
Article
South Asia is the world’s most poverty-dense region, where climate change and climate variability are expected to result in increased heat stress and erratic precipitation patterns that affect agricultural productivity. Considerable evidence has been generated on the effects of these stresses on crop yield, though previous research has not yet examined their influence on the economic efficiency of cereal producers. Surveying 240 farmers across eight of Pakistan’s twelve agro-ecological zones, we examined the impact of temperature and precipitation anomalies – as indicators of climatic variability – and the number of days when temperature exceeds crop specific heat stress thresholds on the economic efficiency of rice and wheat production. To this end, we employed first-stage stochastic production frontier (SPF) models and second-stage ordinary least square (OLS) and quantile regression models. Both OLS and quantile regressions indicated that terminal heat >34 °C has a significant negative impact on wheat production economic efficiency. Small positive deviation (0.54 °C ± 0.16 SD) of the wheat season’s mean temperature from the medium-term historical mean also significantly and negatively affected economic efficiency across all regression models. Heat stress >35.5 °C during rice flowering in the monsoon also had a significant and negative impact. A slight positive deviation in temperature averaging 0.38 °C (±0.11 SD) above the medium-term mean also had significant negative effects across all regressions. Cumulative precipitation conversely had significant yet contrary effects, by offsetting farmers’ investment in supplementary irrigation and increasing economic efficiency. Our results highlight the fact that indicators of climatic variability and heat stress negatively affect the economic efficiency of both rice and wheat producing farmers. Farmers’ education and access to financial and extension services were however both positively associated with economic efficiency. Our findings point to the importance of developing interlinked agronomic, economic and socio-ecological policy strategies to adapt and increase the resilience of Pakistan’s cereal systems to climatic variability.
... Climate change is a global concern, particularly, with increase in the rate of mean temperature and decline of annual mean precipitation [1]. Today, climate warming is a global concern. ...
... In general, an increase in temperature on the Earth's surface is leading to changes in rainfall distribution and frequency, drought and flooding, melting of glaciers, lowering of ice cover in the arctic region, and decrease of snow in terms of amount, frequency, and intensity, which are the main indicators of climate change. Climate change is serious in the Horn of Africa (HOA); several researchers found that the annual mean temperature and precipitation were, respectively, raised and declined in the Sub-Saharan African countries in general [1] and in the HOA in particular [11]. Drought and flooding are serious natural disasters in this region, mainly, drought is severe since the 1970s [12,13], according to African Development Bank (ADB) 2011 [14], millions of people and livestock were under serious food crises in the HOA, and climate change led the region to be one of the poorest regions in the world where above 50% of the population is living below the poverty line. ...
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Climate change due to global warming is a world concern, particularly in Africa. In this study, precipitation and temperature variables are taken as a proxy to assess and quantify the long-term climate change and drought in the Horn of Africa (HOA) (1930–2014). We adapted a simple linear regression and interpolation to analyze, respectively, the trend and spatial distribution of the mean annual precipitation and temperature. In addition, standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was applied to evaluate the drought condition of the HOA. The results revealed that statistically the trend of precipitation decreased insignificantly; the trend of temperature was observed to drop very significantly between 1930 and 1969, but it was dramatically elevated very significantly from 1970 to 2014. The SPEI showed that the HOA experienced from mild to moderate drought throughout the study period with severe to extreme drought in some regions, particularly in 1943, 1984, 1991, and 2009. The drought was a very serious environmental problem in the HOA in the last 85 years. Thus, an immediate action is required to tackle drought and hence poverty and famine in the HOA.
... Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) suffers from a myriad of challenges, including climate change and water resources scarcity that reduces the efficiency and profitability of its farming systems [1][2][3], thus making smallholder agriculture increasingly less viable. There is significant interest in transitioning smallholder agriculture in SSA from subsistence level farms into productive and profitable farm enterprises [4]. ...
... For the ith farm of the jth group, these are represented by vectors xij and yij, respectively. TE scores (θ) are calculated by constraining the ratio outputs/inputs to a range of 0 to 1, and then assigning weights to the inputs and outputs in order to maximize θ such that the TE of the j th group is obtained by solving for Equation (2). ...
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By developing meta-frontier efficiency and structural equation models, the paper examines whether farm economic viability is positively associated with technical efficiency in a highly food insecure context, such as that of rural Sierra Leone. The findings show that technical efficiency can be a sufficient but not necessary condition in determining economic viability of smallholder farming. It is possible to breach reproductive thresholds at the cost of reduced technical efficiency, when the crop diversification strategy of smallholders includes market-oriented high-value crops. This calls for a dual policy approach that addresses farmers' internal needs for self-consumption (increasing efficiency of food crop production) while encouraging market-oriented cash crop production (diversification assisted through the reduction of associated transaction costs and the establishment of accessible commercialization channels of export related crops and/or high-value crops). The work also calls out for a move-up or move-out strategy for small holders to create viable farming systems in developing world.
... The scientific evidence has shown that climate change is a global challenge facing humans and their socio-economic activities, health, livelihood, and food security (Romieu, Welle, Schneiderbauer, Pelling, & Vinchon, 2010;Amjath-Babu, Krupnik, ...
... Aravindakshan, Arshad, & Kaechele, 2016). Agriculture is one of the main economic activities of Nepal and about two-thirds of the population employs on it (CBS, 2017). ...
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Climate change has become serious problem which has threatened human civilization in many ways. Although adaptation practices against climate change impact have been explored into practice in massive scale, the impact of climate change in agriculture production is challenging. This study aims to explore the farmers’ perception towards climate change impact on agriculture production and adaptation practices in Pokhara. For this purpose, two wards (30 and 33) of Pokhara were selected purposively. Out of 3,982 households in these wards, 216 households (at 6.5% margin of error and 5% level of significance) were selected for the information collection. Then the information was collected by using structured questionnaire through interview techniques with household head or a household member having age 40 years and over and residing in that locality for last 10 years. A systematic sampling technique was carried out to select the samples. Chi-squared test was applied to find the factors associated with farmers’ adaptation practices for the climate change impact on agriculture production. Rice, maize, wheat, mustard and millet are the major crops in the study area. Majority of the respondents perceived increase in rice production, decrease in maize, wheat and millet production, and no change in mustard production. Majority of the respondents increase the use of improved seeds, chemical fertilizer and pesticides, do not change the cropping pattern and cropping altitude for the adoption of climate change in agriculture production. Use of seeds that can be cultivated in any seasons, fertilize of compost manure production on own field, water collection through pond, water and tank, tunnel crop, practice of off seasons crops are some adoption practices that they could not apply or they did not apply. Agriculture skill and the major occupation of the respondents are the common major factors associated with adaptation practices for climate change impact on agriculture production.
... Resource-poor farmers in South Asia may conversely have limited capacity to invest in technologies and management practices that could improve their adaptive capacity (Jain et al. 2015). When climatic variability is combined with other critical socioeconomic stresses faced by rice and wheat farmers, for example inability to purchase and apply inputs at recommended rates or within optimal timeframes, or where crops are poorly managed due to labor deficits or competing off-farm livelihood activities, farm households may find themselves trapped in a cycle of low adaptive capacity and hence climate vulnerability (Babu et al. 2016; Morton 2007). Conversely, for South Asian farmers who perceive of and act to counter intra-annual climatic variability, adaptation has been observed to take the form of varying crop species choice, sowing dates and management practices, and/or the use of irrigation to hedge against drought and heat stress (Jain et al. 2015). ...
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Rice and wheat are the principal calorie sources for over a billion people in South Asia, although each crop is particularly sensitive to the climatic and agronomic management conditions under which they are grown. Season-long heat stress can reduce photosynthesis and accelerate senescence; if extreme heat stress is experienced during flowering, both rice and wheat may also experience decreased pollen viability and stigma deposition, leading to increased grain sterility. Where farmers are unable to implement within-season management adaptations, significant deviations from expected climatic conditions would affect crop growth, yield, and therefore have important implications for food security. The influence of climatic conditions on crop growth have been widely studied in growth chamber, greenhouse, and research station trials, although empirical evidence of the link between climatic variability and yield risk in farmers’ fields is comparatively scarce. Using data from 240 farm households, this paper responds to this gap and isolates the effects of agronomic management from climatic variability on rice and wheat yield risks in eight of Pakistan’s twelve agroecological zones. Using Just and Pope production functions, we tested for the effects of crop management practices and climatic conditions on yield and yield variability for each crop. Our results highlight important risks to farmers’ ability to obtain reliable yield levels for both crops. Despite variability in input use and crop management, we found evidence for the negative effect of both season-long and terminal heat stress, measured as the cumulative number of days during which crop growth occurred above critical thresholds, though wheat was considerably more sensitive than rice. Comparing variation in observed climatic parameters in the year of study to medium-term patterns, rice, and wheat yields were both negatively affected, indicative of production risk and of farmers’ limited capacity for within-season adaptation. Our findings suggest the importance of reviewing existing climate change adaptation policies that aim to increase cereal farmers’ resilience in Pakistan, and more broadly in South Asia. Potential agronomic and extension strategies are proposed for further investigation.
... Except in a few countries of northern Africa, such as Tunisia and Morocco, the potential for irrigation development has not been effectively tapped in Africa. Though SSA has a rich and varied water endowment, only 4% (6 million hm 2 ) of the region's total cultivated area is irrigated compared to 37 % in Asia and 14% in Latin America [9] . Thus Africa is far from achieving its irrigation potential, which is estimated at 42.5 million hm 2 . ...
... Pakistan is one of the most important South Asian countries and has been extremely influenced by numerous impacts such as; drought, increased temperature, pest-diseases, health problems, seasonal and lifestyle variation and it has the potential to continue doing so in future (Hussain et al., 2018). The scientific data has presented that climate change is a global challenge for humans and their socio-economic activities, food security, health and livelihood (Amjath-Babu et al., 2016;Clarke et al., 2012). The major reason of global climate change is the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) that results in warming of the atmosphere (IPCC, 2013) and the most important sources of rise in the GHG emissions are anthropogenic activities via fossil fuel combustion (Ullah et al., 2017;Ullah et al., 2018), industrial production processes (Yousaf et al., 2017a), agriculture and forestry, human society, and vehicle usage (Huang et al., 2016). ...
Article
This study examines the association among perception regarding climate change and climatic shocks with a set of socio-demographic variables like age, education, occupation, annual income, socio-economic status and land. Random sampling method was followed to conduct household survey, a total of 279 households were interviewed from rural mountainous areas of Swat District(Pakistan). For this purpose, structured and semi-structured questionnaire was designed to gather the household information. Perception analysis revealed, large number of participants (75%) are of the opinion that present climate has substantially changed in their area compared to previous years. Findings of bivariate model showed significant impact of age, education, income, occupation, land ownership and socio-economic status on local community's perception regarding climate change in addition to climatic shocks. Furthermore, land ownership, socio-economic status and crop sowing appeared as significant predictors of rainfall decrease perception. Similarly, these variables along with water source efficiency in the area were also found significant with perception on temperature rise. Our findings clearly discern a falling trend in earnings in recent years for Swat District which local people connects with influences of changing climate. Hence we suggest local government to intervene and enhance Swat community's livelihood capacity to adjust from climate shocks.
... The scientific evidence has shown that climate change is a global challenge facing humans and their socio-economic activities, health, livelihood, and food security (Romieu et al., 2010;Amjath-Babu et al., 2016). ...
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Study on adaptation practices against climate change impact in agriculture sector have been explored extensively globally but adaptation practices against climate change impact on off farm activities are not studied in detail. This study aims to analyze the determinants of households’ adaptation practices against climate change impact on off farm activities in Nepal. It utilizes the data generated from nationally representative samples of National Climate Change Impact Survey, 2016 conducted by Central Bureau of Statistics. Total sample size of this survey was 5060 households. But for this paper, total of 4114 samples were considered. Binary logistic regression analysis was carried out to analyze households’ adaptation practices against climate change impact on off-farm activities in Nepal. Most of the respondents are male of age 40-54 years, from non-Brahmin/Chhetri caste/ethnicity, illiterate, with lowest income Quintile, from tropical climate zone and without getting any services from agricultural service center. Females ageless likely to have adaptation practices towards off farm activities (started more off-farm activities; shifted to non-agricultural employment; and temporary out-migration) in compared with male. Non-Brahmin/Chhetri caste/ethnicity with reference to Brahmin/Chhetri is the determining factor for the adaptation practices (shifted to non-agricultural employment; and temporary out-migration). Status of receiving any services from agricultural service center, years of experience in agricultural sector and sub-tropical climate zone with reference to tropical zone are the common determining factors for households’ adaptation practices towards off farm activities against climate change impact in Nepal.
... This is predicated upon the fact that crude oil exploration techniques which lead to oil spillage and environmental degradation are largely adopted; further, the high volume of gas flaring and ineffective implementation of environmental laws contributes to further environmental degradation. On the economic effect of climate change, Amjath-Babu et al. (2016) noted that climate change has the tendency to contribute towards the deterioration of both human and social development potentials. ...
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This paper investigates the relationship between greenhouse gas emissions, energy consumption, and output growth among African OPEC countries (Libya, Nigeria, Angola, Algeria, Equatorial Guinea, and Gabon) using the panel autoregressive distributed lag model (PARDL) estimated by means of mean group (MG) and pooled mean group (PMG) for the period 1970–2016. The paper estimated three panel models comprising the components of greenhouse gasses which includes nitrous oxide, carbon dioxide (CO2), and methane and examined their relationship with economic growth and energy consumption. The findings of the study showed evidence of a positive impact of economic growth on both CO2 and methane emissions in the long run. Its impact on nitrous oxide emissions although positive was found to be statistically insignificant. Energy consumption was also found to produce an insignificant positive impact on CO2, methane, and nitrous oxide emissions in the long run. In the short run, economic growth exerts a significant positive effect on methane emissions; however, its effect on CO2 and nitrous oxide emissions although positive was found to be statistically insignificant. Energy consumption produces an insignificant impact on all components of greenhouse gasses in the short run. In addition, our empirical results showed the presence of a non-linear relationship between methane emissions and economic growth, confirming the existence of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) only in the case of methane emissions model.
... Climate change is a global challenge facing humans and their socio-economic activities, health livelihood, and food security [1][2][3][4]. Climate change is a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity. It alters the composition of the global and/or regional atmosphere and natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods. ...
... The combustion of the fossil fuels has become the largest anthropogenic source of greenhouse gases and aggravates the increasing concern of the greenhouse effects. 1,2 It was reported that the temperature of the Earth's surface could exceed the historical value in 2047. 3 If the greenhouse gas emission continued to grow at the present rate, it would exhibit harmful effects on human health and the environment. ...
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Based on the kinetic study with three kinetic models, this paper predicted mercury adsorption by activated carbon (AC) under O2/CO2 combustion atmosphere. Results showed that Bangham’s model, pseudo-second-order kinetic model, and Elovich model could describe the mercury sorption process by AC under both O2/N2 atmosphere and O2/CO2 atmosphere. The kinetic constant k1 was the highest at oxygen concentration of 8% under O2/N2 atmosphere but 4% under O2/CO2 atmosphere. The equilibrium adsorbed amount qe was larger under O2/N2 atmosphere than that under O2/CO2 atmosphere at the same oxygen concentration, and it exhibited great effects on the initial mercury adsorption rate α. Elovich model verified that the chemical adsorption of active sites was the rate of the control step in the mercury removal on the AC surface. All these results were very significant for mercury removal under oxy-fuel combustion atmosphere.
... Several studies predict the significant impact of these changes on agricultural lands both in terms of production and in terms of farm income, pointing out that modernization processes are crucial to overcoming these difficulties [9][10][11][12]. In this scenario, precision agriculture, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) techniques and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) or remotely piloted aircraft systems (RPAS) appear as feasible options to help solve these issues. ...
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While the world population continues to grow, increasing the need to produce more and better-quality food, climate change, urban growth and unsustainable agricultural practices accelerate the loss of available arable land, compromising the sustainability of agricultural lands both in terms of productivity and environmental resilience, and causing serious problems for the production-consumption balance. This scenario highlights the urgent need for agricultural modernization as a crucial step to face forthcoming difficulties. Precision agriculture techniques appear as a feasible option to help solve these problems. However, their use needs to be reinvented and tested according to different parameters, in order to define both the environmental and the economic impact of these new technologies not only on agricultural production, but also on agricultural sustainability. This paper intends, therefore, to contribute to a better understanding of the impact of precision agriculture through the use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV)/remotely piloted aircraft systems (RPAS) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) techniques in small Mediterranean farms. We present specific data obtained through the application of the aforementioned techniques in three farms located along the Portuguese-Spanish border, considering three parameters (seeding failure, differentiated irrigation and differentiated fertilization) in order to determine not only the ecological benefits of these methods, but also their economic and productivity aspects. The obtained results, based on these methods, highlight the fact that an efficient combination of UAV/RPAS and NDVI techniques allows for important economic savings in productivity factors, thus promoting a sustainable agriculture both in ecological and economic terms. Additionally, contrary to what is generally defended, even in small farms, as the ones assessed in this study (less than 50 ha), the costs associated with the application of the aforementioned precision agriculture processes are largely surpassed by the economic gains achieved with their application, regardless of the notorious environmental benefits introduced by the reduction of crucial production inputs as water and fertilizers.
... The scientific evidence has shown that climate change is a global challenge facing humans and their socio-economic activities, health, livelihood, and food security (Romieu et al., 2010;Amjath-Babu et al., 2016). ...
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A survey was carried out to assess the resource use efficiency of Rainbow Trout production under OVOP in Nuwakot -Rasuwa corridors, Nepal 2010. The result showed that the cost of feeding accounted for the largest proportion (24.53%) of the total cost of Rainbow Trout production, followed by cost of labour (22.79%).The fingerlings cost and other input cost accounted for 12.7% and 7.87% of the total cost respectively..The rate of return on investment was 0.33 implies. The implication of this is that there is a considerable level of profitability in Rainbow Trout farming in the study’s findings area. The result revealed that the rate of return per capital invested of 200% is greater than the prevailing bank lending rate 15% implying that Rainbow Trout in the study area is profitable. The result shows that value of output of Rainbow The total sum of elasticises of production of the significant variables, 0.932 was less than unity. This suggests that fish production in the study area had a decreasing return .This shows that production occurred among fish farmers in the study in stage 2, a rational stage of production.
... Unfortunately, the high developmental challenges such as poverty levels reduce the adaptive capacity of the region to climate change. Amjath-Babu et al. [11] , indicated that climate change could deteriorate human and social development potentials in the sub-region. Simply put, climate risks interact with biophysical and social challenges [5] and worsen their occurrences and impacts. ...
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Notwithstanding the lesser contribution to global warming, sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) remained one of the most vulnerable to climate change due to low economic development, high dependence on natural resources for agricultural production and low technological advancement. There is also limited information on the nexus between economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in the region. Therefore, this study applied the Environmental Kuznets hypothesis to test the relationship between economic growth and GHG emissions in SSA and also test the effect of global GHG emission on economic growth of SSA. Using an aggregated panel data for the period of 1970 to 2012, a Vector Autoregressive and an Ordinary Least Square regression were estimated. From the result, although the relationship between economic growth and environmental quality was established in the short run, there are no clear turning points for the greenhouse gasses. Generally, there is a monotonic decreasing relationship between economic growth and environmental quality in the long-run. Interestingly, this study showed that global GHG emission levels have a long-run effect on the economic growth of SSA. We concluded that to ensure that economic growth leads to an improvement in environmental quality, there must be a global effort to introduce innovations and technologies that can lead to increase production with little GHG emissions. The study recommended that, SSA should consider carbon tax policies other than stringent GHG emission reduction initiatives or climate stabilization policies that would negatively affect production in the region
... Thailand has been facing tremendous damage due to droughts [3] and floods [4]. Thailand has nearly 55% of its total area under different forms of agricultural use, and any change in climate condition can destabilize agricultural productivity with important indirect collateral effects on farmers´income, health and educational status [5][6][7]. Northern Thailand is dominated by mountainous landscape with a fragile agro-ecosystem, where resource-poor populations practicing subsistence agriculture are highly vulnerable from a climate perspective [8], and thus rural poverty could be exacerbated due to the negative impacts of climate change on agricultural production and a general increase in food prices and the cost of living [9]. ...
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Northern Thailand has been experiencing the impact of climate change due to its fragile agro-ecosystem, inhabited by a resource-poor population. The study, conducted in a mountainous landscape of Doi Mae Salong area in Northern Thailand, explores the farmers' perceptions of climate change, its impact on farming, and adaptation measures undertaken by the two ethnic communities in the area for coping with climate change impacts. The data were collected through a structured questionnaire survey of ninety farm households using the recall approach for the past twenty years. The findings suggest that the farmers have perceived the change in climate pattern of the study area, and its negative impact on farming. Farm households have been trying to cope with the impacts by adapting to alternate farming options and practices using traditional techniques. The impact was perceived to be higher in the community living at higher elevation compared to those at lower elevation. Although autonomous adaptation is occurring in the area, the vulnerability of farm households to the impact of climate change still exists in terms of the lack of knowledge and financial resources.
... Similarly, adaptation activities with core social objectives that can prevent secondary impacts of climate change (Amjath-Babu et al., 2016) or foster landscape level adaptation are missing. India's national employment guarantee scheme and Ethiopia's productive safety net programme are guiding examples of such possibilities. ...
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This study analyses the current supporting laws, regulations, strategies, national action plans, NDCs, scientific literature and other documents and policies in Vietnam to identify the barriers against the effective implementation of mitigation and adaptation agriculture activities committed in Vietnam’s NDC. It also identifies the redundancies and synergies between climate action and green growth plans of the country. As a result, the study found that there is a strong supporting legal framework for implementing NDC actions in Vietnam. However, challenges and gaps are identified in awareness and technical capacity; coordination and resource allocation; downscaling to the provinces; engagement of private sector and NGOs; regulatory framework, which are critical to NDC implementation. A set of key recommendations are proposed on how to address the challenges raised by identified barriers are developed.
... Drought is a direct indicator of climate change, which frequently occurs in the HOA (Nicholson, 2014), especially during the El Nino periods. Since the 1970s, according to Amjath-Babua et al. (2016) and Ghebrezgabher et al. (2016b), the average annual precipitation trend has declined slightly and temperature has risen significantly. According to FAO (2011), food insecurity and poverty levels are serious in Africa, particularly in the HOA and sub-Saharan countries (Verdin et al., 2005). ...
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The variation of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) mainly depends on the change of climatic factors (precipitation and temperature). This study is assessing and analyzing the inter-annual and seasonal change of NDVI in the Horn of Africa (HOA) (1982–2013). The relationship between climatic factors and NDVI values of global Inventory monitoring Modeling System (GIMMS) from 1982 to 2013 was analyzed by means of ordinary least squares, vegetation slope, simple linear regression and correlation coefficients. In addition, the land cover data of the (MODIS) Medium Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (i.e. MCD12Q1) are used to assess land-use change from 2001 to 2013 and GIMMS land cover data also applied to extract annual NDVI maximum from 1982 to 2013. The results show that NDVI is proportional to precipitation and inversely proportional to temperature, which precipitation decreased insignificantly while temperature increased significantly for the last 3 decades. In general, NDVI values gradually rise from spring to rainy season and fall steadily from autumn to winter. The NDVI of grassland, savanna and shrub land is more sensitive to climate change than the NDVI of forest and woodland. In grassland, savanna and shrub, NDVI gradients are positive, while in desert areas negative changes are recorded, while forests and woodlands are in transition between stable and positive NDVI gradients. The average NDVI value of each vegetation cover gradually increased from 1982 to 1998 and then slowly decreased from 1998 to 2013 due to precipitation variation. Forest and woodland cover were declined by approximately 0.4% and 1.28% in the past 2 decades. Thus, in the Horn of Africa, land degradation, such as deforestation and desertification, is a serious environmental problem.
... We stress that the challenges posed by climate change are so complex that effective responses require interdisciplinary scientific advance and transdisciplinary collaborations that bring together researchers, practitioners, and policymakers in South-North and South-South partnerships to tackle complex social, political, and ecological problems (Cundill et al. 2019). These challenges have been exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic (Amjath-Babu et al. 2016;Kumar et al. 2020;Stephens et al. 2020). ...
Chapter
Climate change will have a largely detrimental impact on the agricultural sector. Reduced yields will lead to greater food insecurity and a rise in food prices. In response, researchers develop agricultural technologies and practices, collectively-known as climate-smart agriculture (CSA). Scaling or large-scale farmer uptake of CSA is often seen as the responsibility of downstream development practitioners. This, however, encourages a false dichotomy between ‘research’ and ‘scaling’. Such binary thinking poses two dangers. Firstly, when faced with donors’ understandable wish to see impact on the ground, agricultural research organizations succumb to ‘mission drift’ and engage in ‘development work’ for which they have little comparative advantage. Secondly, because scaling is seen as a ‘development’ as opposed to ‘research’ issue, the contribution that research can make is overlooked. We propose that agricultural research-for-development (AR4D) can contribute more to scaling by conceptualizing the process as a multi-faceted one that catalyses three interconnected and complimentary pathways: technology development; capacity development; and policy influence, each overseen by inter-disciplinary research teams.
... Climatic conditions may affect the stability of food supplies in semi-arid areas where crop yield is likely to be lower due to a scarcity of rainfall, especially where small-scale irrigation and rainwater harvesting technologies are absent. In such areas, rainfed agriculture is sensitive to temperature and rainfall conditions and prone to frequent droughts that lead to crop failures (Liwenga 2003;Ludi 2009), which in turn affects the diversity and amount of food available for consumption (Amjath-Babu et al. 2016). In contrast, in sub-humid climates, rain fed agriculture is more reliable and favours food production ( (Ludi 2009). ...
Article
This paper analyzed stunting in children in Tanzania and its linkages to agro-climatic conditions and related factors, unraveling the complex interactions of determinants of under-nutrition in two contrasting regions of Tanzania. We used logistic regression models to establish relationships between stunting and multiple variables belonging to different domains. The prevalence of stunting and severe stunting in children was 41% and 21% respectively, while 11% of women had a Body Mass Index of below 18.5. Results also indicate that 17% of children and 16% of women were anaemic. Regression analysis showed that major determinants of child stunting in the semi-arid Dodoma region are cultivated land size, gender and age of the child, duration of breastfeeding, household size, use of iodized salt and the distance to a water source. In sub-humid Morogoro, cultivated land size, a child’s age, duration of breastfeeding, literacy status of the mother and Body Mass Index of the mother predict stunting. We discuss how these factors influence the nutrition status of children in each agro-climatic region. The pooled model provided strong evidence to link agro-climatic zone characteristics to stunting among children. It is recommended that nutrition interventions should be specific to agro-climatic environments. Implementing agro-climatic sensitive interventional actions may help to reduce undernutrition and food insecurity in specific areas.
... The scientific evidence has shown that climate change is a global challenge facing humans and their socio-economic activities, health, livelihood, and food security (Romieu et al., 2010;Amjath-Babu et al., 2016;Mitchell and Van Aalst, 2008;Clarke et al., 2012). Changes in climate affect developed and underdeveloped nations and poor and rich people are also affected by its impacts. ...
Article
This paper examines smallholder farmers’ perceptions of climate change, climate variability and their impacts, and adaptation strategies adopted over the past three decades. We use ethnographic analysis, combined with Cumulative Departure Index (CDI), Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI) analysis, and correlation analysis to compare farmers’ perceptions in Southwestern Nigeria with historical meteorological data, in order to assess the way farmers’ observations mirror the climatic trends. The results show that about 67% of farmers who participated had observed recent changes in climate. Perceptions of rural farmers on climate change and variability are consistent with the climatic trend analysis. RAI and CDI results illustrate that not less than 11 out of 30 years in each study site experienced lower-than-normal rainfall. Climatic trends show fluctuations in both early growing season (EGS) and late growing season (LGS) rainfall and the 5-year moving average suggests a reduction in rainfall over the 30 years. Climatic trends confirmed farmers’ perceptions that EGS and LGS precipitations are oscillating, that rainfall onset is becoming later, and EGS rainfall is reducing. Overall impacts of climate change on both crops and livestock appear to be highly negative, much more on maize (62.8%), yam (52.2%), poultry (67%) and cattle (63.2%). Years of farming experiences and level of income of farmers appear to have a significant relationship with farmers’ choice of adaptation strategies, with r > 0.60 @ p < .05 and r > 0.520 @ p < .05 respectively. The study concluded that farmers’ perceptions of climate change mirror meteorological analysis, though their perceptions were based on local climate parameters. Smallholder farmers are particularly vulnerable to climate change since the majority of them do not have enough resources to cope.
... The economy of Ethiopia is dependent on rainfed agriculture, contributes about 52 percent to the gross domestic product (GDP) and generates more than 85 percent of foreign exchange earnings. In addition, it employs about 80 percent of the population (Ministry of Economic Development and Cooperation) [1,2]. One of the serious challenges of the agricultural sector in Ethiopia is its vulnerability to climate change (CC) [3,4]. ...
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The world is experiencing variability in precipitation, increased temperature, drought frequencies and intensities. Globally, approximately four billion individuals experience water scarcity due to drought. In Uganda about 10% of the population in the southern and northern parts of the country experience drought related water scarcity annually. This study aimed at assessing drought and households’ adaptive capacity (AC) to water scarcity during drought in Kasali. This was done through determining drought trends from 1987 to 2017, assessing the impact of drought on water availability and the AC of households to manage water scarcity. Droughts were assessed based on the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI). The results show a decrease in the average annual rainfall, and the seasons of March-April-May (MAM), January-February (JF) while the seasons of September-October-November-December (SOND) and June-July-August (JJA) show an increase in rainfall trend. The average maximum and minimum annual and seasonal temperature increased significantly by between 0.56 and 1.51 °C. The minimum temperature increased more than the maximum temperature. Kasali experienced one extreme dry year and four moderate ones between 1987 and 2017. Above 70% of the households spend longer hours collecting water during dry years than wet years. The AC of households to water scarcity was low and drought negatively impacted water availability.
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Many countries experience the negative impacts of climate change especially in the decline of agricultural productivity leading to decreased national and household food security. This study assessed smallholder farmers' perception of climate variability and change and their adaptation strategies in Masaba South Sub-County, Kisii County, Kenya. A multi-stage sampling technique was used to collect data from 196 smallholder farmers. Additionally, focused group discussions and key informant interviews were used. The study revealed that most farmers perceived climate changes. 88.3% of the respondents noted a decrease in rainfall, 79.1% reported poor rainfall distribution, 88.3% perceived a late onset of rainfall while 76.6% perceived an increase in temperature. The farmers' perception mirrored the actual climatic data trends for the area obtained from the meteorological department. The major climate-smart agriculture practices adopted by farmers in the area included; diversification of crops, change of planting time and crop rotation/mixed cropping. The adoption of climate-smart agriculture practices significantly correlated with the household size, monthly income, access to credit and farmers’ perception of climate change. The study recommends the incorporation and prioritization of climate change in the county and government development agenda as a means of enhancing the uptake of climate-smart agricultural practices.
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Climate change could threaten sub-Saharan Africa's progress on human development, but impact studies often focus on intermediate effects instead. We conduct a systematic literature review of projected climate impacts on three important dimensions of human development: food insecurity, water stress, and disease. Despite a large impact literature, only 28 studies project quantitative outcomes for these dimensions of development, and even these studies sometimes focus on proxies for outcomes of interest. Studies forecast that climate change could reduce hunger by <1 million or increase it by up to 55 million people in 2050. In 2030, climate change could increase diarrheal disease cases by 88.4–134.2 million and malaria cases by 30.1–58.5 million, but decrease malaria cases in West Africa. Findings on water stress are less consistent. In the 2050s, climate change could expose up to 921 million additional people to water stress while at the same time reducing exposure by up to 459 million. Several factors, including projection and comparison years, make it difficult to compare findings. Greater focus on projecting climate change implications for well-being and a common approach to reporting results could refine ranges and improve comparability across the literature.
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Among technological adaptation options, climate information services (CIS) offers high potential as a means to offset climate change impacts and build resilience in farming areas of developing countries. This study explores the potential of CIS, by investigating the case of participatory CIS development in the Lower Ganges Delta of Bangladesh. Specifically, we examined the value farmers attached to a co-developed CIS as decision support tool and the price farmers were willing to pay for CIS subscriptions. Based on a hypothetical market for CIS, we used contingent valuation with a double-bounded dichotomous choice format to determine farmers willingness to pay (WTP) for CIS. Two samples were included: an experiment group of farmers exposed to and trained in CIS use for farm decision-making and a control group of farmers without prior exposure to CIS. More than 90% of farmers in the experiment group expressed willingness to pay for CIS, compared to 75% of the control group. The annual subscription fees farmers were willing to pay ranged from 970.92 taka (US $11.45) to 1387.20 taka ($16.36). WTP was greater among farmers who had participated in CIS co-development. The main factors influencing farmers' willingness to pay were CIS cost and prior exposure and training to CIS. Given that Bangladesh has more than 16.5 million farm households, these findings suggest huge market potential for CIS. Based on the high potential of participatory CIS, governmental institutions, the private sector and social entrepreneurs are called upon to develop CIS for smallholders, to unlock smallholders' agriculture potential.
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Abstract CONTEXT Rainfall shocks pose a threat to farmers in rural West Africa especially in the wake of the recurrent climate variability and its impacts on agricultural production. Despite the harm they pose, limited empirical studies exist on the welfare implications of rainfall shocks on farmers' welfare in West Africa. In addition, the potential impacts of rainfall induced commodity and labor market failures have not been given much attention in the empirical literature. OBJECTIVE Our study aimed to analyze the impact of negative rainfall shocks and commodity and labor market failures on farm households' welfare in northern Ghana. Examining the impact of commodity and labor market failures amidst the experience of a negative rainfall shock helps to identify the possible entry points through which the adverse impacts of rainfall deficits may be reduced. METHODS The study is based on a household survey data from the Africa Rising program, historical daily climate data from the CCAFS-Climate data portal and random rainfall distributions from Monte Carlo simulation. A total of 1168 households were considered in the analysis. We analyze the impact of rainfall shocks and the above-mentioned entitlement failures using a static optimization model that incorporates a crop yield response function. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION We found that an increase in the frequency of negative rainfall shocks under a dry future with and without entitlement failures would impact negatively on the total income and consumption levels of both the asset non-poor and asset poor households in the study area. The asset poor households would however bear the brunt of the impact, and the anticipated impact would mostly be yielded through changes in agricultural incomes and expenditure on food purchases. With increasing risk of dry rainfall conditions, total incomes of farmers could decrease by 7.3% to 45.5%. It was found that ignoring potential failures in commodity and labor markets lead to over/underestimation of the impacts of major rainfall deficits on the different types of farmers. The impact of rainfall shocks on the welfare of farmers is scenario and cluster dependent. SIGNIFICANCE The results have significance for policy formulation and future research. The findings from this study indicate a need for targeting and acknowledgement of the differential impacts of climate shocks on the different farmer groups. Efforts made in future research to incorporate entitlement failures in climate impact studies could produce more informative guide for effective policy formulation.
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This paper considers synergisms between the impacts of two global processes, climate change and economic globalization. Both processes entail long-term changes that will have differential impacts throughout the world. Despite widespread recognition that there will be “winners” and “losers” with both climate change and globalization, the two issues are rarely examined together. In this paper, we introduce the concept of double exposure as a framework for examining the simultaneous impacts of climate change and globalization. Double exposure refers to the fact that certain regions, sectors, ecosystems and social groups will be confronted both by the impacts of climate change, and by the consequences of globalization. By considering the joint impacts of the two processes, new sets of winners and losers emerge.
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'This is a well researched, thorough and impressive work on climate change and agriculture in Africa. I recommend it to students, researchers and practitioners working on climate change issues' Jabavu Clifford Nkomo, senior programme specialist, IDRC This landmark book encompasses a comprehensive assessment of the potential economic impacts of future climate change, and the value of adaptation measures in Africa for different zones, regions, countries and farm types. Researchers developed and applied multiple analytical procedures to assess quantitatively how climate affects current agricultural systems in Africa, enabling them to predict how these systems may be affected in the future by climate change under various global warming scenarios, and suggesting what role adaptation could play. The study is the first to combine spatially referenced household survey data with climatic data at both national and international levels. This book provides vital knowledge about the impacts of climate change on Africa, serving as a guide to policy intervention strategies and investment in adaptation measures. It makes a major contribution to the analysis of climate change impacts and developing adaptation strategies, especially in the highly vulnerable farming communities in the developing world. Published with CEEPA and supported by the World Bank. © Centre for Environmental Economics and Policy in Africa (CEEPA), 2008. All rights reserved.
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Aiming to translate resilience thinking theory into farming systems design practice, this paper examines fundamental properties of complex systems dynamics and their relation with the mechanisms that govern resilience and transformability in African smallholder agriculture. Agroecosystems dynamics emerge from the aggregation of diverse livelihood strategies in response to changes in the agroecosystem context, and are characterised by non-linearity, irreversibility, convergence/divergence and hysteresis. I examine a number of case studies from Africa to verify three guiding hypotheses in connection to the diversity of rural livelihood strategies: (1) diversity as alternative system regimes; (2) diversity as the result of transformability; (3) diversity determined by changing agricultural contexts. The hierarchy of constraints that determine the space for manoeuvring in agroecosystems is described through the analogy of the Matryoshka nesting dolls: each system level confines and is confined by their immediate sub- and supra-systems. Agricultural contexts, as defined by agro-ecological potential, demography and market connectivity are also dynamic and their trajectory can be described as shifts across stability domains. An example from Kenya shows that household diversity can be described as alternative system regimes, through hysteretic rather than continuous, reversible models. In some particular cases diversity emerges from divergent pathways that may have implied radical transformations in the past, as shown here for rural livelihoods in northern Cameroun. A comparative analysis of East African agroecosystems shows that thresholds in specific variables that may point to the existence of possible tipping points are rather elusive and largely site specific, requiring systematic categorisation of agricultural contexts. While agroecology needs to provide the knowledge base for the ecological intensification of smallholder landscapes, policy and market developments are needed to deal with the Matryoshka effect – or with interactions that are presumably panarchical in certain cases. Desirable shifts in farming systems can only be stimulated by working on both ends simultaneously.
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A better understanding of processes that shape farmers’ adaptation to climate change is critical to identify vulnerable entities and to develop well-targeted adaptation policies. However, it is currently poorly understood what determines farmers’ adaptation and how to measure it. In this study, we develop an activity-based adaptation index (AAI) and explore the relationship between socioeconomic variables and farmers’ adaptation behavior by means of an explanatory factor analysis and a multiple linear regression model using latent variables. The model was tested in six villages situated in two administrative wards in the Morogoro region of Tanzania. The Mlali ward represents a system of relatively high agricultural potential, whereas the Gairo ward represents a system of low agricultural potential. A household survey, a rapid rural appraisal and, a stakeholder workshop were used for data collection. The data were analyzed using factor analysis, multiple linear regression, descriptive statistical methods and qualitative content analysis. The empirical results are discussed in the context of theoretical concepts of adaptation and the sustainable livelihood approach. We found that public investment in rural infrastructure, in the availability and technically efficient use of inputs, in a good education system that provides equal chances for women, and in the strengthening of social capital, agricultural extension and, microcredit services are the best means of improving the adaptation of the farmers from the six villages in Gairo and Mlali. We conclude that the newly developed AAI is a simple but promising way to capture the complexity of adaptation processes that addresses a number of shortcomings of previous index studies.
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This study employed a Ricardian model to measure the impact of climate change on South Africa's field crops and analysed potential future impacts of further changes in the climate. A regression of farm net revenue on climate, soil and other socio-economic variables was conducted to capture farmer-adapted responses to climate variations. The analysis was based on agricultural data for seven field crops (maize, wheat, sorghum, sugarcane, groundnut, sunflower and soybean), climate and edaphic data across 300 districts in South Africa. Results indicate that production of field crops was sensitive to marginal changes in temperature as compared to changes in precipitation. Temperature rise positively affects net revenue whereas the effect of reduction in rainfall is negative. The study also highlights the importance of season and location in dealing with climate change showing that the spatial distribution of climate change impact and consequently needed adaptations will not be uniform across the different agro-ecological regions of South Africa. Results of simulations of climate change scenarios indicate many impacts that would induce (or require) very distinct shifts in farming practices and patterns in different regions. Those include major shifts in crop calendars and growing seasons, switching between crops to the possibility of complete disappearance of some field crops from some region.
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Climate change is expected to adversely affect agricultural production in Africa. Because agricultural production remains the main source of income for most rural communities in the region, adaptation of the agricultural sector is imperative to protect the livelihoods of the poor and to ensure food security. A better understanding of farmers’ perceptions of climate change, ongoing adaptation measures, and the decision-making process is important to inform policies aimed at promoting successful adaptation strategies for the agricultural sector. Using data from a survey of 1800 farm households in South Africa and Ethiopia, this study presents the adaptation strategies used by farmers in both countries and analyzes the factors influencing the decision to adapt. We find that the most common adaptation strategies include: use of different crops or crop varieties, planting trees, soil conservation, changing planting dates, and irrigation. However, despite having perceived changes in temperature and rainfall, a large percentage of farmers did not make any adjustments to their farming practices. The main barriers to adaptation cited by farmers were lack of access to credit in South Africa and lack of access to land, information, and credit in Ethiopia. A probit model is used to examine the factors influencing farmers’ decision to adapt to perceived climate changes. Factors influencing farmers’ decision to adapt include wealth, and access to extension, credit, and climate information in Ethiopia; and wealth, government farm support, and access to fertile land and credit in South Africa. Using a pooled dataset, an analysis of the factors affecting the decision to adapt to perceived climate change across both countries reveals that farmers were more likely to adapt if they had access to extension, credit, and land. Food aid, extension services, and information on climate change were found to facilitate adaptation among the poorest farmers. We conclude that policy-makers must create an enabling environment to support adaptation by increasing access to information, credit and markets, and make a particular effort to reach small-scale subsistence farmers, with limited resources to confront climate change.
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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment of major risks for African agriculture and food security caused by climate change during coming decades is confirmed by a review of more recent climate change impact assessments (14 quantitative, six qualitative). Projected impacts relative to current production levels range from -100% to +168% in econometric, from -84% to +62% in process-based, and from -57% to +30% in statistical assessments. Despite large uncertainty, there are several robust conclusions from published literature for policy makers and research agendas: agriculture everywhere in Africa runs some risk to be negatively affected by climate change; existing cropping systems and infrastructure will have to change to meet future demand. With respect to growing population and the threat of negative climate change impacts, science will now have to show if and how agricultural production in Africa can be significantly improved.
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The twin global epidemics of HIV infection and food scarcity disproportionately affect sub-Saharan Africa, and a significant proportion of patients who require antiretroviral therapy (ART) are malnourished because of a combination of HIV-associated wasting and inadequate nutrient intake. Protein-calorie malnutrition, the most common form of adult malnutrition in the region, is associated with significant morbidity and compounds the immunosuppressive effects of HIV. A low body mass index (BMI), a sign of advanced malnutrition, is an independent predictor of early mortality (<6 mo) after ART initiation in several analyses, and recent studies show an association between early weight gain when receiving ART and improved treatment outcomes. The cause of the observed increase in mortality is uncertain, but it is likely due in part to malnutrition-induced immune system dysfunction, a higher burden of opportunistic infections, and metabolic derangements. In this article, we describe the epidemiology of HIV infection and malnutrition in sub-Saharan Africa, potential causes of increased mortality after ART initiation among patients with a low BMI, recent studies on post-ART weight gain and treatment outcome, and trials of macronutrient supplementation from the region. We close by highlighting priority areas for future research.
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This study examines the impact of climate change on crop farming in Cameroon. The country's economy is predominantly agrarian and agriculture and the exploitation of natural resources remain the driving force for the country's economic development. Fluctuations in national income are due not merely to the decline in world demand for Cameroon's traditional agricultural exports or to mistakes in economic policy making, but also to the vagaries of the weather. Based on a farm-level survey of more than 800 farms, the study employs a Ricardian cross-sectional approach to measure the relationship between climate and the net revenue from crops. Net revenue is regressed on climate, water flow, soil, and economic variables. Further, uniform scenarios assume that only one aspect of climate changes and the change is uniform across the whole country. The analysis finds that net revenues fall as precipitation decreases or temperatures increase across all the surveyed farms. The study reaffirms that agriculture in Cameroon is often limited by seasonality and the availability of moisture. Although other physical factors, such as soil and relief, have an important influence on agriculture, climate remains the dominant influence on the variety of crops cultivated and the types of agriculture practiced.
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This study uses the Ricardian approach to analyze the impact of climate change on Ethiopian agriculture and to describe farmer adaptations to varying environmental factors. The study analyzes data from 11 of the country's 18 agro-ecological zones, representing more than 74 percent of the country, and survey of 1,000 farmers from 50 districts. Regressing of net revenue on climate, household, and soil variables show that these variables have a significant impact on the farmers'net revenue per hectare.The study carries out a marginal impact analysis of increasing temperature and changing precipitation across the four seasons. In addition, it examines the impact of uniform climate scenarios on farmers'net revenue per hectare. Additionally, it analyzes the net revenue impact of predicted climate scenarios from three models for the years 2050 and 2100. In general, the results indicate that increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation are both damaging to Ethiopian agriculture. Although the analysis did not incorporate the carbon fertilization effect, the role of technology, or the change in prices for the future, significant information for policy-making can be extracted.
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The objective of this paper is to determine the ability of farmers in Africa to detect climate change, and to ascertain how they have adapted to whatever climate change they believe has occurred. The paper also asks farmers whether they perceive any barriers to adaptation and attempts to determine the characteristics of those farmers who, despite claiming to have witnessed climate change, have not yet responded to it. The study is based on a large-scale survey of agriculturalists in 11 African countries. The survey reveals that significant numbers of farmers believe that temperatures have already increased and that precipitation has declined. Those with the greatest experience of farming are more likely to notice climate change. Further, neighboring farmers tell a consistent story. There are important differences in the propensity of farmers living in different locations to adapt and there may be institutional impediments to adaptation in some countries. Although large numbers of farmers perceive no barriers to adaptation, those that do perceive them tend to cite their poverty and inability to borrow. Few if any farmers mentioned lack of appropriate seed, security of tenure, or market accessibility as problems. Those farmers who perceive climate change but fail to respond may require particular incentives or assistance to do what is ultimately in their own best interests. Although experienced farmers are more likely to perceive climate change, it is educated farmers who are more likely to respond by making at least one adaptation.
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This study uses the Ricardian approach to examine the economic impact of climate change on agriculture in Zimbabwe. Net farm revenue is regressed against various climate, soil, hydrological and socio-economic variables to help determine the factors that influence variability in net farm revenues. The study is based on data from a survey of 700 smallholder farming households interviewed across the country. The empirical results show that climatic variables (temperature and precipitation) have significant effects on net farm revenues in Zimbabwe. In addition to the analysis of all farms, the study also analyzes the effects on dryland farmsand farms with irrigation. The analysis indicates that net farm revenues are affected negatively by increases in temperature and positively by increases in precipitation. The results from sensitivity analysis suggest that agricultural production in Zimbabwe's smallholder farming system is significantly constrained by climatic factors (high temperature and low rainfall). The elasticity results show that the changes in net revenue are high for dryland farming compared to farms with irrigation. The results show that farms with irrigation are more resistant to changes in climate, indicating that irrigation is an important adaptation option to help reduce the impact of further changes in climate. An overview of farmer adaptation to changing climate indicates that farmers are already using some adaptation strategies-such as dry and early planting, growing drought resistant crops, changing planting dates, and using irrigation-to cushion themselves against further anticipated adverse climatic conditions. An important policy message from the empirical findings is that there is a need to provide adequate extension information services to ensure that farmers receive up-to-date information about rainfall patterns in the forthcoming season so that they make well-informed decisions on their planting dates. Policies that increase farmer training an
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The impact of climate change on Africa is likely to be severe because of adverse direct effects, high agricultural dependence, and limited capacity to adapt. Direct effects vary widely across the continent, with some areas (e.g. eastern Africa) predicted to get wetter, but much of southern Africa getting drier and hotter. Crop yields will be adversely affected and the frequency of extreme weather events will increase. Adaptation to climate change is primarily a private-sector response and should involve relocation of people, changes in the sectoral structure of production, and changes in crop patterns. The role of government is primarily to provide the information, incentives, and economic environment to facilitate such changes. Adaptation will be impeded by Africa's fragmentation into small countries and ethnic groups, and by poor business environments. On the mitigation side, there is a need to design emissions-trading frameworks that support greater African participation than at present, and that include land-use change. Mitigation undertaken elsewhere will have a major impact on Africa, both positive (e.g. new technologies) and negative (e.g. commodity price changes arising from biofuel policies).
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This paper assesses the economic impact of the expected adverse changes in the climate on crop farming in South Africa using a revised Ricardian model and data from farm household surveys, long-term climate data, major soils and runoffs. Mean annual estimates indicate that a 1% increase in temperature will lead to about US$ 80.00 increase in net crop revenue while a 1mm/month fall in precipitation leads to US$ 2.00 fall, but with significant seasonal differences in impacts. There are also significant spatial differences and across the different farming systems. Using selected climate scenarios, the study predicts that crop net revenues are expected to fall by as much as 90% by 2100 with small-scale farmers been most affected. Policies therefore need to be fine-tuned and more focused to take advantage of the relative benefits across seasons, farming systems and spatially, and by so doing climate change may be beneficial rather than harmful.
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Many who study global change, particularly from industrialized countries, are optimistic about the capacity of agriculture to successfully adapt to climate change. This optimism is based on historic trends in yield increases, on the spread of cropping systems far beyond their traditional agroecological boundaries, and the inherent flexibility of systems of international trade. Analysis of the success (or in rare cases, failure) of adaptation is by analogy—either to analogous socioeconomic or technological change or to short term environmental change. Such studies have been limited to industrialized countries. This paper uses five analogs from developing countries to examine potential adaptation to global climate change by poor people. Two are studies of comparative developing country responses to drought, flood, and tropical cyclone and to the Sahelian droughts of the 1970s and 80s that illustrate adaptations to climate and weather events:. Two address food production and rapid population growth in South Asia and Africa. Three types of adaptive social costs are considered: the direct costs of adaptation, the costs of adapting to the adaptations, and the costs of failing to adapt. A final analog reviews 30 village-level studies for the role that these social costs of adaptation play in perpetuating poverty and environmental degradation.
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This paper analyses the global consequences to crop yields, production, and risk of hunger of linked socio-economic and climate scenarios. Potential impacts of climate change are estimated for climate change scenarios developed from the HadCM3 global climate model under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1FI, A2, B1, and B2. Projected changes in yield are calculated using transfer functions derived from crop model simulations with observed climate data and projected climate change scenarios. The basic linked system (BLS) is used to evaluate consequent changes in global cereal production, cereal prices and the number of people at risk from hunger.
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This paper reports results from a study of resource degradation and conservation behavior of peasant households in a degraded part of the Ethiopian highlands. Peasant households' choice of conservation technologies is modeled as a two-stage process: recognition of the erosion problem, and adoption and level of use of control practices. An ordinal logit model is used to explain parcel-level perception of the threat of the erosion problem and the extent of use of conservation practices. Results show the importance of perception of the threat of soil erosion, household, land and farm characteristics; perception of technology-specific attributes, and land quality differentials in shaping conservation decisions of peasants. Furthermore, where poverty is widespread and appropriate support policies are lacking, results indicate that population pressure per se is unable to encourage sustainable land use. The challenge of breaking the poverty-environment trap and initiating sustainable intensification thus require policy incentives and technologies that confer short-term benefits to the poor while conserving the resource base.
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The impacts of climate change on agriculture may add significantly to the development challenges of ensuring food security and reducing poverty. We show the possible impacts on maize production in Africa and Latin America to 2055, using high-resolution methods to generate characteristic daily weather data for driving a detailed simulation model of the maize crop. Although the results indicate an overall reduction of only 10% in maize production to 2055, equivalent to losses of $2 billion per year, the aggregate results hide enormous variability: areas can be identified where maize yields may change substantially. Climate change urgently needs to be assessed at the level of the household, so that poor and vulnerable people dependent on agriculture can be appropriately targeted in research and development activities whose object is poverty alleviation.