The viability of legalising trade in rhino horn in South Africa

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3.1.1.$The$white$rhinoceros$........................................................................................................$11!
3.1.2.$The$black$rhinoceros$........................................................................................................$15!
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3.2.1.$Rhino$poaching$...................................................................................................................$17!
3.2.2.$“Pseudo>hunting”$of$white$rhinos$................................................................................$19!
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5.2.1.$Expert$surveys$.....................................................................................................................$24!
5.2.2.$Private$owner$surveys$......................................................................................................$25!
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6.1.1.$Data$limitations$..................................................................................................................$27!
6.1.2.$Buyers$and$sellers$of$rhino$horn$before$the$moratorium$....................................$28!
6.1.3.$The$quantity$and$value$of$legal$rhino$horn$trade$before$the$moratorium$...$29!
6.1.4.$The$destination$of$traded$rhino$horn$before$the$moratorium$..........................$32!
6.1.5.$Illegal$trade$in$rhino$horn$from$private$stocks$.......................................................$32!
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6.2.1.$Data$limitations$..................................................................................................................$34!
6.2.2.$Rhino$poaching$...................................................................................................................$35!
6.2.3.$Trophy$hunting$of$rhinos$................................................................................................$44!
6.2.4.$Live$sale$prices$of$rhinos$.................................................................................................$50!
6.2.5.$Total$quantities$of$rhino$horn$that$have$exited$South$Africa$illegally$............$53!
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6.3.1.$The$underlying$reasons$for$rhino$poaching$.............................................................$53!
6.3.2.$Why$did$South$Africa$not$experience$increased$poaching$before$2008?$.......$54!
6.3.3.$Has$there$been$an$increase$in$demand$for$rhino$horn?$.......................................$56!
6.3.4.$Expert$opinion$on$the$causes$of$the$poaching$surge$.............................................$59!
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6.5.1.$The$costs$of$protecting$rhinos$on$private$land$........................................................$61!
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7.1.1.$Data$limitations$..................................................................................................................$63!
7.1.2.$Current$horn$stockpiles$...................................................................................................$63!
7.1.3.$Potential$future$horn$supplies$......................................................................................$64!
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7.2.1$The$national$market$for$rhino$horn$.............................................................................$72!
7.2.2.$The$potential$income$to$be$generated$from$national$trade$in$rhino$horn$....$73!
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8.1.1.$Lifting$the$national$moratorium$may$lead$to$laundering$of$illegal$rhino$horn$
into$legal$trade,$and$leakage$of$rhino$horn$into$the$illegal$international$market$ 78!
8.1.2.$Lifting$of$the$national$moratorium$may$tarnish$South$Africa’s$international$
conservation$reputation$.............................................................................................................$79!
8.1.3.$Lifting$the$national$moratorium$may$result$in/lead$to$compliance$and$
enforcement$challenges$..............................................................................................................$82!
8.1.4.$Lifting$the$national$moratorium$may$send$conflicting$messages$to$CITES$
about$South$Africa’s$position$on$trade$...................................................................................$83!
8.1.5.$Lifting$the$national$moratorium$will$do$little$to$reduce$poaching$..................$83!
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8.2.1.$If$the$national$moratorium$is$not$lifted,$the$incentive$to$poach$rhinos$will$
remain$high$.....................................................................................................................................$84!
8.2.2.$If$the$national$moratorium$is$not$lifted,$protecting$rhinos$may$become$
financially$unsustainable$and$lead$some$private$rhino$owners$to$de>stock$............$84!
8.2.3.$If$the$national$moratorium$is$not$lifted,$live>sale$prices$of$rhinos$may$
decrease$and$reduce$the$incentive$to$protect$them$...........................................................$85!
8.2.4.$If$the$national$moratorium$is$not$lifted,$storing$rhino$horns$will$become$an$
increasing$security$risk$for$private$owners$.........................................................................$85!
8.2.5.$If$the$national$moratorium$is$not$lifted,$private$rhino$owners$may$consider$
taking$legal$action$against$the$South$African$government$............................................$85!
8.2.6.$If$the$national$moratorium$is$not$lifted,$illegal$activities$might$be$perversely$
stimulated$rather$than$reduced$...............................................................................................$86!
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9.1.1.$Laundering$and$leakage$.................................................................................................$86!
9.1.2.$Effects$on$South$Africa’s$international$reputation$................................................$88!
9.1.3$Problems$with$compliance$and$enforcement$............................................................$89!
9.1.4.$Problems$with$sending$conflicting$messages$..........................................................$89!
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9.2.1.$Reducing$the$incentive$to$poach$rhinos$.....................................................................$90!
9.2.2.$Reducing$the$chance$of$private$rhino$owners$destocking$...................................$90!
9.2.3.$Halting$the$decline$in$live$sale$prices$of$rhinos$.......................................................$91!
9.2.4.$Reducing$the$risks$of$storing$horn$...............................................................................$91!

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9.2.5.$Preventing$private$rhino$owners$from$taking$legal$action$against$the$
government$.....................................................................................................................................$91!
9.2.6.$Reducing$the$chances$of$onerous$permitting$restrictions$creating$a$perverse$
stimulation$of$illegal$activity$....................................................................................................$91!
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A)#Southern#white#rhino
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Year
Number#of#southern#white#rhinos#in#Africa
B)#Northern#white#rhino
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
?
15
rhin os
30
rhin os
Extinct
Year
Number#of#northern#white#rhinos#in#Africa
C)#Black#rhino#(all#subspecies)
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
?
Year
Number#of#black#rhinos#in#Africa
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Number.of.rhinos.on.private.land.in.province
Number.of.horns.traded.in.p rovince
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!!
!
SANParks Provincial/parks Private/land
0
20
40
60
80
100
%/of/total/rhino/population
%/of/rhino/poaching
%
!
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!
!