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In Jordan, traffic accidents constitute a major health problem. They are considered the second leading cause of death. This paper investigated the characteristics of traffic accidents in Jordan and evaluated the safety impact of policy measures undertaken in 2008, including intensification of police enforcement and implementation of traffic law with stiff penalty levels. To accomplish these objectives, accidents’ data of 1998 through 2007 were obtained from Jordan Traffic Institute and other related sources. Results of analysis revealed that Jordan has experienced huge human and economic losses as well as social and emotional negative impacts. Children, young and elderly have been exposed to an elevated pedestrian accident risk. Young drivers of ages less than 25 years and elderly of ages over 60 years are over-involved in accidents. Carelessness and aggressive driving behavior were the major causes of traffic accidents. The results of analysis also indicated that motorization level can be used to explain variations in traffic accidents and fatalities. Furthermore, intensifying of traffic enforcement and implementing traffic law with stiff penalty levels were found to have a strong positive safety impact on accidents and fatalities. Finally, it is recommended to restructure and empower the Higher Council for Traffic Safety to be able to draw a comprehensive strategy with clear vision and rational safety policies to tackle the traffic accidents’ problem Traffic accidents in Jordan. Available from: [accessed May 29, 2016].
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Jordan Journal of Civil Engineering, Volume 3, No. 4, 2009
- 331 -
Traffic Accidents in Jordan
Hashem R. Al-Masaeid 1)
1) Civil Engineering Dept., Jordan University of Science and Technology, Irbid, Jordan,
(In a sabbatical leave at Aal Al-Bayt University, Al-Mafraq, Jordan). E-Mail:
In Jordan, traffic accidents constitute a major health problem. They are considered the second leading cause of
death. This paper investigated the characteristics of traffic accidents in Jordan and evaluated the safety impact of
policy measures undertaken in 2008, including intensification of police enforcement and implementation of
traffic law with stiff penalty levels. To accomplish these objectives, accidents’ data of 1998 through 2007 were
obtained from Jordan Traffic Institute and other related sources.
Results of analysis revealed that Jordan has experienced huge human and economic losses as well as social and
emotional negative impacts. Children, young and elderly have been exposed to an elevated pedestrian accident
risk. Young drivers of ages less than 25 years and elderly of ages over 60 years are over-involved in accidents.
Carelessness and aggressive driving behavior were the major causes of traffic accidents. The results of analysis
also indicated that motorization level can be used to explain variations in traffic accidents and fatalities.
Furthermore, intensifying of traffic enforcement and implementing traffic law with stiff penalty levels were
found to have a strong positive safety impact on accidents and fatalities. Finally, it is recommended to restructure
and empower the Higher Council for Traffic Safety to be able to draw a comprehensive strategy with clear vision
and rational safety policies to tackle the traffic accidents’ problem.
KEYWORDS: Traffic accidents, Safety measures, Jordan.
Traffic accidents are increasingly being recognized as
a major cause of death and a growing health problem.
They kill 1.2 million people each year and injure or
disable as many as 50 million people more. According to
the World Health Organization (Toroyan and Peden,
2007), traffic accidents are the second leading cause of
death globally among children and youth people. In
addition to pain, grief and social suffering, these
accidents cost countries 1% to 2% of their gross national
products (Peden et al., 2004). Thus, the reduction of
accidents and their consequences is of great importance
to all countries.
Traffic accidents are a complex phenomenon. They
are caused by a multitude of factors, including roadway
and its environment, road users’ behavior and vehicle
aspects. Accident analysis revealed that traffic risk is a
function of exposure, probability of involvement and
probable severity. Exposure to vehicular and other
conflicts that are susceptible to accident occurrences
depends on motorization level, land use and road
planning. There have been several studies relating
accidents to these exposure measures (Mittal, 2008; Al-
Masaeied and Suleiman, 2004; Brindle, 2001; Al-
Masaeied et al., 1997). Road users’ behavior, vehicle
speed and vehicle and roadway conditions affect the
likelihood of involvement. Studies indicated that young
Accepted for Publication on 1/10/2009.
© 2009 JUST. All Ri
hts Reserved.
Traffic Accidents Hashem R. Al-Masaeid
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age and inexperience drivers contribute to a high level of
risk involvement. Recently, studies conducted in France
and Finland (Constant et al., 2008; Rijkka and Mikko,
2008) pointed out that intensification of speed control
with stiffer penalties resulted in significant reduction of
injury and lethal accidents. Other studies (McLean and
Kloeden, 2002) reported that an increase of 5 km/hr
above the speed limit of 60 km/hr in rural areas would
double the risk of accident involvement. Also, the
improvement of road conditions and its environment and
the implementation of low-cost measures have a great
impact on lowering accident involvement rates or severity
(Harkey et al., 2008; Elvik and Vaa, 2004; Al-Masaeid,
1997). Finally, in-vehicle protection devices; such as
seat-belt, air-bag and child constraint, are very effective
in reducing accident severity.
Realizing traffic accidents as a preventable problem,
developed countries have implemented different policies
and measures to reduce this problem (Jorgesen, 2002).
These include enforcement, education, training and
engineering improvements. Unlike developed countries,
the problem of traffic accidents in developing countries is
still considered as a matter of fate or unavoidable cost of
development. Without remarkable efforts to enhance
traffic safety in developing countries, the number of
deaths due to traffic accidents is expected to increase by
80% between 2000 and 2020 (Jacob and aeron-Thomas,
1999). Thus, developing countries are required to analyze
the problem and determine appropriate measures to revert
the upward tendency in the number and severity of traffic
In Jordan, traffic accidents constitute a major health
problem. Although previous studies (Al-Suleiman and
Al-Masaeid, 1992; Al-Masaeid and Nelson, 1996; Al-
Masaeid, 1998) have addressed accident characteristics in
Jordan, these characteristics might change with time due
to change in motorization, infrastructure development,
legislation and educational levels. It is worth mentioning
that the government of Jordan has applied a new traffic
law and intensified police activities in 2008. Thus,
periodic investigation of accident characteristics is vital
to define target groups for further actions and measures,
and to help decision makers set rational policies and
strategies to curb this problem.
The main objectives of this paper were: First; to
quantify the accident problem in Jordan and its
characteristics, including involvement rates of
pedestrians, drivers and vehicles. Second; to estimate the
socio-economic impact of 2008 policy measures, and
suggest guidelines for improving road safety in Jordan.
To accomplish these objectives, data on traffic accidents
were collected from the annual reports of Jordan Traffic
Institute (1998-2008). Involvement rates were computed
based on the data of 2005 through 2007, while statistical
relationships were developed using the data of 1998
through 2007.
Jordan is located in the Middle East region, with an
area of 90 thousand sq. km and a population of about 5.8
million people. The problem of traffic accidents started to
appear as a serious issue in the mid 1980s. In 2007, traffic
accidents were considered the second leading cause of
death in Jordan. During the past 20 years, the number of
accidents increased from 15884 accidents in 1987 to
110630 accidents in 2007. For the same period, the
number of population and the number of vehicles
increased only by approximately 2 and 3 folds,
respectively. Obviously, this situation is not surprising,
because Jordan has not yet applied a comprehensive
strategy to reduce this problem (Katamine, 1999).
At the end of January 2008, as a result of the drastic
increase in traffic accident casualties and after a horrific
bus accident on Irbid-Amman highway, his majesty King
Abdullah II instructed the government to draw a
comprehensive strategy to curb accidents and casualties
in Jordan. Chairing a meeting of the Higher Council for
Traffic Safety, the King said that the strategy on traffic
safety should be implemented in line with a timetable and
a clear program. Also, the Monarch stressed the
importance of drafting a law to activate the Council’s
role, tasks and duties. Accordingly, the previous traffic
law (No. 49, 2001) was substituted by a new temporary
Jordan Journal of Civil Engineering, Volume 3, No. 4, 2009
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traffic law (No. 52, 2007) which imposed stiffer
penalties. Concomitantly with the application of the new
law, traffic police activities were intensified and targeted
drivers’ errors, particularly excessive speeds. After four
months, the new traffic law was relaxed, and a less
restrictive permanent traffic law (No. 49, 2008) was
issued in July 2008 and applied since August 2008.
However, police enforcement activities continued at the
same level or even more up to the present time. Starting
from Feb. 2008, the Higher Council for Traffic Safety,
under the chairmanship of the prime minister, has met
once a month to follow road safety issues.
Table (1): Population, Vehicle Ownership, Accidents and Fatalities in Jordan.
Year Population
( thousand)
No. of Accidents
( thousand) Fatalities
1998 4755.8 389.20 43.343 612
1999 4900.0 418.43 50.330 676
2000 5039.0 473.34 52.796 686
2001 5182.0 509.83 52.662 783
2002 5329.0 542.81 52.913 758
2003 5480.0 517.50 62.115 832
2004 5350.0 612.33 70.266 818
2005 5473.0 679.73 83.129 790
2006 5600.0 755.48 98.055 899
2007 5728.0 841.93 110.630 992
Quantification of the Problem
Table (1) presents the growth of population, vehicle
ownership, traffic accidents and fatalities between 1998
and 2007. As shown in the table, there are dramatic
increases in traffic accidents and the resulting fatalities
over the past ten years. Also, Table (1) indicates that
traffic fatalities have grown faster than the population.
For Jordan, Figure (1) illustrates that fatality risk
continued to rise. In contrast, fatality risks for different
developed countries actually decreased with time.
According to 2007 statistics, the fatality rate in Jordan
was 12 compared with 1.6 fatalities per 10000 registered
vehicles in USA. Considering both of fatality risk and
rate for Middle East and North Africa region, MENA,
Jordan ranked number five. Similar to some countries in
the region (Abdulmajid, 2007; Bener and Crundall, 2005;
Ansari et al., 2000), traffic accidents are considered the
second leading cause of death in Jordan. Thus, Jordan
faces a serious accident problem.
Study of fatality distribution indicated that children
and youth under the age of 25 years account for 41% of
those killed in traffic accidents in Jordan. Though about
5% of the population is over 60 years of age, they
accounted for nearly 12% of all traffic fatalities. Further
investigation of all traffic accident casualties revealed
that children and young people are exposed to a high
level of risk. For example, children and young people
represented more than 43% of those killed or seriously
injured in accidents, while the corresponding worldwide
percentage is only 30% (Toroyan and Peden, 2007).
In addition to the magnitude and severity of the
accident problem in Jordan, traffic accidents are very
costly for a country having limited resources. Al-Masaeid
et al. (1999) indicated that the costs of fatal, injury and
property damage only accidents are JD 63851, 4155 and
1400, respectively. Based on these estimates, traffic
Traffic Accidents Hashem R. Al-Masaeid
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accidents costed the country JD 220, 258 and 281
millions in 2005, 2006 and 2007, respectively (JD 1=US$
Table (2): Total Traffic Accidents, Pedestrian Accidents and their Casualties in Jordan (2005–2007).
All Accident
No. of Traffic
No. of Pedestrian
Accidents fatal injury fatal injury
2005 83129 4866 305 4844 790 17579
2006 98055 4826 319 4837 899 18019
2007 110630 4178 276 4193 992 17969
Table (3): Causes of Traffic Accidents ( 2005 – 2007 ).
Cause Percentage
Carelessness 22.5
Close following or tailgating 17.0
Disregarding traffic priority 14.6
Using incorrect lane 14.1
Bad turn 10.5
Incorrect reversing 9.2
Disregard traffic signs 2.8
Excessive speed 1.5
Disallowing pedestrian priority 1.2
Wrong overtaking 0.8
Wrong turn 0.7
Others 5.1
Pedestrian Involvement Rates
Table (2) shows total road accidents, pedestrian
accidents and their casualties in Jordan during the period
2005-2007. Despite the fact that pedestrian accidents
constitute about 5% of the total traffic accidents, they
resulted in about 34% and 26%of the total traffic fatalities
and injuries, respectively. The corresponding percentages
for pedestrian fatalities in Europe and USA were 20%
and 11%, respectively (Jacobs et al., 2000; NHTSA,
2007). This result is not unexpected because pedestrians
are not given sufficient consideration in transport and
urban planning. For example, Al-Masaeied et al. (1994)
pointed out that many rural towns were developed along
and on both sides of Jordanian major roads without any
advanced planning. Furthermore, many schools were
located adjacent to main roads. This situation creates
hazards to local and through traffic as well as to residents.
Figure (2) shows the relative involvement rate for
pedestrians killed or seriously injured during the years
2005-2007. The relative involvement rate was computed
as a percentage of the number of pedestrians killed or
seriously injured for a given age group to the population
Jordan Journal of Civil Engineering, Volume 3, No. 4, 2009
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of that age group in thousands. This figure indicates that
child age group (5-10 years) and elderly age group over
60 years have the highest level of pedestrian risks.
Although children and elderly accounted for nearly 37%
and 5% of Jordan’s population, children and elderly
fatalities represented about 45% and 15% of all
pedestrian fatalities. Thus, these age groups should be the
target for accident prevention measures. Conversely, the
(25-45) age group has the lowest level of risk.
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
fatality risk/100.000
Figure (1): Fatality Risk for Different Countries.
Drivers’ Involvement Rates
Figure (3) shows drivers’ involvement rates for the
period 2005-2007. Drivers’ involvement rates were
computed as a percentage of the involved drivers for a
given age group to the population of divers in the same
age group. The figure illustrates that drivers aged less
than 30 years were over- involved in traffic accidents.
Also, young aged drivers with ages less than 25 years are
the most dangerous drivers. They are over-involved in
traffic accidents by a factor of 1.6 to 2.5 when compared
with the overall average. These results are compatible
with the findings of previous studies, which reported that
young and inexperienced drivers contribute to a high
level of risk (Peden et al., 2004). In contrast, drivers aged
40 to 60 years were found to have the lowest involvement
rate. Compared to 40-60 age category, Figure (3)
Traffic Accidents Hashem R. Al-Masaeid
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indicates that the level of involvement increased for drivers aged more than 60 years.
0_5 5_10 10_15 15_25 25_45 45_60 60
Age group (year)
Pedestrian invovement rate
Figure (2): Pedestrian Involvement Rate for Different Age Groups.
Field observations and accident records reveal that
most of traffic accidents in Jordan are caused by drivers’
errors and their aggressiveness. The major causes of
traffic accidents in Jordan during 2005-2007 are detailed
in Table (3). The largest single cause of an accident was
carelessness of drivers, contributing to 22.5% of all
accidents. Close following or tailgating took the second
rank, accounting for 17% of the accidents. Other causes
were disregarding traffic priority, using incorrect lane,
bad turn and reversing. Excessive speed took the eighth
rank, causing about 1.5% of the accidents. Aggressive
behavior, including tailgating, disregarding traffic priority
or pedestrians, disregarding traffic signs and excessive
speed, contributed to about 40% of accident causes.
According to accident pattern, accidents are classified
into vehicle-vehicle collision, vehicle-pedestrian accident
and run-off-road accident. Although the run-off-road
accidents constituted about 2% of the total traffic
accidents in Jordan, they resulted in more than 20% of the
fatalities. In fact, most of these accidents could be
attributed to speeding, especially on rural roads.
Vehicles’ Involvement Rates
Involvement rates of different vehicle types in traffic
accidents for the period 2005-2007 are shown in Figure
(4). In all years investigated, the highest involvement
rates were found for buses or coaches and mini-buses. In
general, more than 50% of the registered buses and mini-
buses were involved in accidents. In fact, most of buses
and mini-buses are used as public transport or for tourism
purposes. As such, they normally experience traveling
longer distances with excessive speeds. On the other
hand, approximately 25% of registered cars, trucks and
dual purpose vehicles were involved in accidents.
Jordan Journal of Civil Engineering, Volume 3, No. 4, 2009
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Involvement of motorcycles was found to decrease with
time. Finally, construction and agricultural vehicles do
not appear to be a major problem in Jordan, where only
4% and 2%, respectively, of these vehicle types are
involved in accidents.
19 25 31 37 43 49 55 60
ge (year)
Involement arte
Figure (3): Drivers’ Involvement Rate versus Driver Age.
Although involvement rates for buses and mini-buses
are very high, they resulted in only 11% of the total
traffic fatalities. In contrast, traffic accidents involving
cars resulted in about 60% of all traffic fatalities.
Using the data in Table (1), two types of descriptive
models were developed. In the first type, a model was
developed to describe the relationship between the
number of accidents and motorization level in vehicles
per one-thousand of population. Motorization level was
found to vary from 82 vehicles per one-thousand of
population in 1997 to 147 vehicles per one-thousand of
population in 2007. Based on regression analysis carried
out in this study, the following equation was developed:
ACC = 37.68 M1.60 (1)
ACC = number of traffic accidents per year.
M = motorization level, number of registered vehicles
per one-thousand of population.
Traffic Accidents Hashem R. Al-Masaeid
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2005 2006 2007
involvement rate
Figure (4): Involvement Rate for Different Vehicle Types.
The above model equation and its parameters were
found to be significant at 95% confidence level (N=10,
R2=0.96, F=148.9). The coefficient of determination (R2)
was 0.96, which means that the model explained 96% of
the variations in traffic accidents.
The second type of models was developed to estimate
fatalities as a function of motorization level. The
following equations were obtained:
F = 31.34 M0.69 (2)
F/V = 22.5 M-0.60 (3)
F = traffic accident fatalities per year.
V = number of registered vehicles in thousands.
Equation (2) was found highly significant, with a
coefficient of determination of 0.87 (N = 10, R2 = 0.87,
σ =0.055, F=51.34). Similarly, equation (3) and its
parameters were found to be highly significant, with a
coefficient of determination of 0.88 (N = 10, R2 = 0.88,
σ =0.045, F=58.55). Compared with the model equation
(2), model equation (3) has a lower standard error and
higher coefficient of determination and F-value.
Furthermore, equation (3) is consistent in form with the
well-known Smeed’s formula (Smeed and Jeffcoate,
1970). Therefore, equation (3) was recommended and
adopted for subsequent applications.
Evaluation of 2008 Traffic Safety Policies
As stated before, two safety policies were
implemented since the start of February 2008. The first
one was the application of the temporary law ( No. 52,
2007), which imposed stiffer penalties on drivers’
Jordan Journal of Civil Engineering, Volume 3, No. 4, 2009
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violations, particularly speeding. Due to drivers’
complaints, this law was relaxed by the end of May, 2008
and substituted by a less restrictive permanent law (No.
49, 2008). The second safety policy was the
intensification of traffic police enforcement; which
continued up to the present time. The number of fines
increased to 2.14 millions in 2008, compared with 1.36
millions in 2007. The most important was the increase in
number of fines for excessive speeding, which increased
from 144 thousands in 2007 to nearly 180 thousands in
2008. The positive combined effect of these policy
measures was a decline in the number of accidents and
% of accidents
Figure (5): Comparison of Accident Percentages of 2008 and (2003-2007) Period.
In the evaluation, it was assumed that the developed
equations in this study are applicable in the absence of
any effective safety measures. In 2008, there were
905592 registered vehicles and a population of 5850
thousands. Using equation (1) with motorization level of
154.8, the expected number of accidents for 2008 is
117500; while the actual observed number of accidents
was 101066. At 95% confidence level, a significant
decline of about 14% in the total number of accidents
could be concluded. Furthermore, traffic accidents of
2008 resulted in 740 fatalities compared with an
estimated 995 fatalities, computed using equation (3).
Similarly, a 25.63% reduction in the number of fatalities
in 2008 was found to be significant at 95% confidence
Traffic Accidents Hashem R. Al-Masaeid
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level. Thus, the applied policies were found to be
effective in reducing the total number of accidents and
the resulting fatalities.
Despite the fact that the combined effect of the new
traffic law and increasing enforcement level had an
overall positive influence in reducing accidents and
fatalities, the application of law with stiffer penalties was
the most effective measure. Figure (5) shows the
percentage of accidents by month for 2008 and the
average of percentages during the period 2003-2007. For
February, March, April and May, the percentage of
accidents in each month of 2008 was found to be
significantly lower than the corresponding average for
the same month in the 2003-2007 period. It is worth
mentioning that the temporary law with stiffer penalties
was only applied during these months. Thus, the
implementation of an intensive enforcement accompanied
with higher penalty levels may create greater positive
impact on traffic safety.
In addition to the reduction in number of accidents
and fatalities, the applied measures had economical
benefits. According to the estimated and actual observed
accidents in 2008, the saving in accidents was about
16434 accidents. Therefore, the anticipated economic
saving is approximately JD 42 millions (US$ 60
This paper presents the extent of traffic accident
problem in Jordan. The problem is serious and alarming.
It is considered as the second leading cause of death in
Jordan. Children and youth under the age of 25 years and
elderly of ages over 60 years were found to be
overrepresented in accident fatalities. Child age group (5-
10) years and elderly age group (over 60) years were
exposed to the highest level of pedestrian accident risk. In
fact, children’s behavior in this age group is less
disciplined and their physical and cognitive skills are not
fully developed. Also, young and elderly drivers were
significantly over-involved in traffic accidents. In
addition to the lack of driving experience, young drivers
often underestimate the level of risk. Aggressive driving
behavior was the major cause of accidents. Previous
studies concluded that self-assertion and territorial
attitude among Jordanians lead to aggressive driving
behaviors (Suliman and Awad, 2003). Similar to other
Middle East countries, carelessness was the first single
cause of accidents (Bener and Crundall, 2005). Compared
with developed and a number of developing countries,
Jordan has experienced excessive human and economic
losses as well as social and emotional impacts as a result
of this problem.
Safety policy measures undertaken in 2008, including
intensification of police enforcement and improvement of
traffic laws, were found to be effective in reducing total
traffic accidents and fatalities by 14% and 25.63%,
respectively. This result is compatible with findings of
previous studies, which revealed that changing of
attitudes or traffic law towards safety is an effective mean
to improve drivers’ behavior (Pelsmacker and Janssens,
2007). Such changes can be achieved through education
and enforcement of laws. In France, a dramatic increase
in law enforcement over the 2001-2004 period reduced
traffic fatalities by about 32% (Constant et al. 2008).
Similarly, intensification of speed enforcement in Finland
reduced the number of fatal accidents by 13% (Rijkka
and Mikko, 2008). For a given enforcement level,
however, the results of this study suggested that a traffic
law with stiffer penalty level would be more effective on
traffic safety.
Realizing traffic accidents as preventable and
multidiscipline problem, safety measures implemented in
Jordan are not enough to tackle this problem. The Higher
Council for Traffic Safety should be an independent body
and empowered by technical committees constituted at
lower operational levels. Such committees are responsible
of planning, conducting studies, problem identification,
policy formulation and follow-up with the Council and
implementation bodies. In fact, many developed countries
have adopted safety policies and achieved successful
stories like Sweden, Japan, United Kingdom, among
others. For example, Sweden adopted ‘vision zero’ in
1997, Netherlands adopted ‘sustainable road safety’ in
Jordan Journal of Civil Engineering, Volume 3, No. 4, 2009
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1991 and England adopted ‘tomorrow’s roads safety for
everyone’ in 2000. According to the Britain strategy, a
reduction of 50% in the number of children killed or
seriously injured should be achieved by 2010, compared
with the average for 1994-1998. However, a reduction of
55% in the number of children killed or seriously injured
was achieved by the end of 2007 (National Statistics,
2008, 2009).
In Jordan, the political will and commitment to reduce
the problem of traffic accidents exist. The Higher Council
for Traffic Safety should be restructured as an
independent entity empowered by specialized staff.
Safety measures dealing with road users, roadway and its
environment and vehicles should be developed. Children
often underestimate the level of risk in crossing or
playing in streets. Thus, education and mass media
programs are necessary for this age group. Also, well
structured training programs are vital for drivers.
Although black-spot and low-cost safety improvements
are cost-effective, road and urban safety audits, in
planning and design stages, are much more preferable for
accident prevention. It is worth mentioning that vehicle-
vehicle collisions constituted more than 93% of traffic
accidents in Jordan. Thus, widening of roadways and
implementation of medians to separate traffic are
recommended, especially for roads subjected to high
traffic volumes. Vehicle investigation programs shall be
established to ensure that vehicles are in good mechanical
conditions and equipped with safety devices. Finally,
enforcement of traffic laws and improvement of rescue
medical services are considered as an essential part of
safety policies (Al-Masaeid and Zubai, 2005).
Based on the results of this study, the following points
were concluded:
1. Jordan faces a serious and alarming traffic accident
problem. Compared with developed and a number of
developing countries, Jordan has experienced
excessive human and economic losses as well as
social end emotional impacts as a result of this
2. Child age group (5-10) years and elderly age group
(over 60) years are exposed to the highest level of
pedestrian accident risk.
3. Young drivers of ages less than 25 years and elderly
of over 60 years are overrepresented in traffic
accident involvement.
4. While the first single cause of accidents in Jordan is
carelessness, aggressive driving behavior is believed
to be the major contributory factor in traffic
5. Public transport means, including buses and mini-
buses, are over-involved in traffic accidents.
6. Forecasting exponential models, using motorization
level as an independent variable, successfully
explains the variations in traffic accidents and
7. Intensification of traffic enforcement accompanied
by implementation of traffic law with stiff penalty
levels would have a great positive influence on
traffic safety.
8. Although political will and commitment to reduce
the problem of traffic accidents exist, Jordan shall
implement a comprehensive strategy with a clear
vision and rational policies to curb this problem.
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... In Jordan, a developing country, traffic accidents are a significant public health problem. They are the second leading cause of death [1]. Jordan's total population reached 10,203,134 inhabitants in 2020, with a total of 1,729,343 registered vehicles [2]. ...
... The following independent variables were identified as significant contributors to traffic accidents in hazardous locations: "average running speed, posted speed, the maximum and average degree of horizontal curves, number of vertical curves, median width, road surface type, lighting (day or night), number of vehicles per hour, number of pedestrian crossing facilities, and percentage of trucks" [6]. Al-Masaeid [1] examined the types of accidents in Jordan, including the involvement rates of pedestrians, drivers, and vehicles, and the safety effects of policy changes made from 1997 to 2008. These changes included more police enforcement and stricter traffic laws, which made the roads safer. ...
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This paper investigates the trends in the traffic fatality rate per 100,000 population, population growth, gross domestic product (GDP), and registered vehicles per 100,000 population over 39 years (from 1981 to 2020). Traffic accidents data were obtained from the Jordan Public Security Directorate (JPSD) published reports for the selected years in Jordan. Data were analyzed to predict the annual fatality rate using time-series, curve estimation, and multiple linear regression models. Among the various available models for curve estimation, the cubic model outperformed the rest by capturing 79.4% of the variance. Also, multiple linear regression results showed that increasing the length of the road network can play a role in decreasing the fatality rate of road accidents. While time series analysis offers numerous techniques, it is determined that the Jordanian fatality rate is best suited for using the exponential smoothing approach. Results indicated that the time series model produces the lowest mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE), followed by multiple linear regression, and finally by the curve estimate (cubic) model. It is essential to see how these variables have changed over the study period, which helps decision-makers, engineers, and researchers predict future trends and suggest suitable measures to lower the fatality rate.
... In developing countries such as Jordan, traffic accidents are a significant public problem as they are the second leading cause of death [8]. They are a severe challenge in Jordan, where approximately two people die each day in car crashes, and the country loses 2-3% of its gross domestic product (GDP) due to this issue [9]. ...
... For example, Obaidat and Ramadan [33] used different stepwise statistical regression models to investigate traffic accidents at hazardous locations on urban roads. Al-Masaied [8] assessed the safety impact of policy measures implemented from 1997 to 2008, including increased police enforcement and stricter enforcement of traffic laws. The study found that traffic enforcement and enforcing traffic laws with stiff penalties had a significant positive safety effect on accidents and fatalities. ...
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This paper aims to explore the spatiotemporal pattern of traffic accidents using five years of data between 2015 and 2019 for the Irbid Governorate, Jordan. The spatial pattern of traffic-accident hotspots and their temporal evolution were identified along the internal and arterial roads network in the study area using spatial autocorrelation (Global Moran I index) and local hotspot analysis (Getis–Ord Gi*) techniques within the GIS environment. The study showed a gradual increase in the reported traffic accidents of approximately 38% at the year level. The analysis of traffic accidents at the severity level showed a distinguished spatial distribution of hotspot locations. The less severe traffic accidents (~95%) occurred on the internal road network in the Irbid Governorate’s towns where the highest traffic volume exist. The spatial autocorrelation analysis and the Getis–Ord Gi* statistics with 99% of significance level showed clustering patterns of traffic accidents along the internal and the arterial road network segments. Between 2015 and 2019, a notable evolution of the traffic-accident hotspots clusters was pronounced. The results can be used to guide traffic managers and decision makers to take appropriate actions for enhancing the hotspot locations and improving their traffic safety status.
... In evaluating these policies and measures at the country level, however, different ad hoc procedures are used. Thus, it is vital to develop traffic accident prediction models that are able to figure out future traffic accident trend and use the appropriate ones to evaluate the effectiveness of the implemented policies and measures (Al-Masaeid, 2009). ...
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Modeling traffic-accident frequency is a critical issue to better understand the accident trends and the effectiveness of current traffic policies and practices in different countries. The main objectives of this study are to model traffic road accidents, fatalities and injuries in Jordan, using different modeling techniques, including regression, artificial neural network (ANN) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models and to evaluate the safety impact of travel-restriction strategies during Covid-19 pandemic on traffic accident statistics for the year 2020. To accomplish these objectives, data of traffic accidents, registered vehicles (REGV), population (POP) and economic gross domestic product (GDP) from 1995 through 2020 were obtained from related sources in Jordan. The analysis revealed that accidents, fatalities and injuries have an increasing trend in Jordan. Root mean of square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and coefficient of multiple determination (R2) were used to evaluate the performance of the developed prediction models. Based on model performance, the ANN models are the best, followed by the ARIMA models and then the regression models. Finally, it was concluded that the strategies undertaken by the government of Jordan to combat Covid-19, including complete and partial banning of travel, resulted in a considerable reduction of accidents, injuries and fatalities by about 35%, 37% and 50%, respectively. KEYWORDS: Traffic accidents, Artificial neural network, Covid-19 pandemic, Regression, Time series analysis, Prediction models.
... In addition, many studies highlight the poor transportation facilities, such as pedestrian crossways, traffic signs, parking facilities, narrow roads, and the absence of shoulders; as well as the lack of traffic-law enforcement as factors that increased the childrens risk of being injured in pedestrian road crashes (Elias et al., 2010;Elias and Shiftan, 2011;Al-Masaeid, 2009). Another study done by Clifton and Kreamer-Fults (2007) on the environmental attributes associated with pedestrian-vehicular crashes near public schools find that the presence of driveways improves traffic flow and congestion in the school area, thus reducing the severity of crashes involving children of all ages. ...
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Half of the world’s road traffic deaths involve vulnerable road users—pedestrians, motorcyclists, and cyclists. In Malaysia, there are several strategies introduced to improve the road safety level of school children. However, crashes involving school children are still worrisome. Recent trends of school children involved in crashes in school vicinity have become the nation’s concern. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the contributing factors of pedestrian-vehicle conflict involving school children in vicinity of the school. This study focused on the utilization of the facilities provided at school, exposure measures, and demographic characteristics of the schools. The facilities that are being considered in this study are; a zebra crossing, pedestrian bridge, drop-off, and pick-up zone, and the presence of a traffic warden. A total of 57 schools in Selangor were assessed for this study. The important variables were analyzed using the Negative Binomial Regression model to identify the significant attributes. Non-parametric analysis was used to compare the differences in characteristics of the schools. The findings of the study conclude that the road type and pedestrian volume are the underlying factors that would increase pedestrian-vehicle conflict in the school vicinity.
... The survey results of the Jordanian Traffic Institute (2009 -2011) indicate that the number of registered traffic accidents was (405,395); causing 2040 deaths and 51,187 injuries, besides the estimated losses of 883.5 million JD. Moreover, it was found that the costs of accidents were estimated at 146.3 million US dollars in 1996 [7], and increased to 440 million US dollars in 2010 [8]. These indicate the seriousness of traffic accidents in Jordan, which requires finding possible solutions to reduce the incidence of these accidents. ...
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In any country, identifying high-intensity accident hotspots is essential in establishing effective techniques to minimize high-intensity accident sites. Because of Jordan’s continual population growth in recent years, vehicle ownership has grown, leading to an increase in accident rates. According to many researches, Jordan suffers from damages caused by traffic accidents. As a result, the current study focuses on finding the black spots in selected Jordanian localities as a first step toward identifying the strategies to minimize traffic accidents in Jordan. To achieve this objective, the researcher started their investigation by collecting the accidents that occurred in Jordan during three years in 30 departments in Amman. The study area includes 30 segments in seven intersections in Amman city. Based on the collected data, the case study traffic sites were ranked based on their safety performance using several methods: accident rates, accident frequency, and accident severity index. The study's findings revealed that the high safety segment in the study area is from al-zamakhshre to interchange al-shfaa. In contrast, the high black spots are found from Jordan University to major streets. Results confirmed that identifying the high black spots segments contributes to reducing expected traffic accidents.
... The study completed by Barić et al. [47] showed that in Zagreb, Croatia after the assignment of police enforcement with road safety campaigning, pedestrians' illegal crossing behavior was reduced by 52%. Additionally, Al-Masaeid [48] recognized that the presence of police enforcement is helpful to reduce aggressive behavior of the drivers; consequently, decreases the risk of pedestrian-vehicular crashes. ...
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Vulnerable road users (VRU) such as pedestrians, motorcyclists, and bicyclists, account for more than half of total road traffic fatalities in developing countries. In urban India, VRU consist of more than 80% of the fatalities. Although in Indian cities, the share of VRU is considerably high, suitable VRU-friendly facilities are not efficiently planned. In this context, the present paper aims to develop a systematic approach to enhance VRU safety at the urban intersection level in the context of a developing country. Using 6 years’ crash data (2011–2016) from “Kolkata Police”, India, the applicability of the present research framework is demonstrated. To examine the major risk factors associated with pedestrians, motorcyclists, and non-motorized transport users (NMT: bicycle, cycle-rickshaw, and hand-pull carts), three sets of crash prediction models are developed with the help of Poisson and negative binomial analysis. The study outcome reveals that vehicle volume and speed, inadequate sight distance, and the absence of designated bus stops significantly affect the likelihood of fatal pedestrian crashes. Alternatively, overspending and overtaking behavior by motorcyclists, and restricted sight distance increase the fatality risk of motorcyclists. Speed inconsistency between motorized and non-motorized vehicles, insufficient street lighting, and inadequate sight distance increase the risk of NMT users. The overall study outcomes specify the need for segregation between motorized traffic and VRU at urban intersections by providing dedicated lanes for VRU along with suitable crossing facilities; implementing signalization with a distinct phase for VRU. The study also highlights the importance of speed management measures in urban India.
... Road accidents place a heavy burden on the world economy due to significant loss of life and property damage. The number of traffic accidents in Jordan is rising, and the consequences have a significant impact on people's lives and on their social and emotional well-being (Al-Masaeid, 2009;Alomari and Taamneh, 2020). It is a complex behavioral problem due to the multiplicity of variables and factors affecting it such as driver, pedestrian, passenger behavior, vehicle, highway, and infrastructure characteristics. ...
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This study describes crash causes, conditions, and distribution of accident hot spots along with an analysis of the risk factors that significantly affect severity levels of crashes and their effects on pedestrian safety using machine learning (ML) techniques. Supervised ML algorithm–random forest and decision tree–based algorithm-AdaBoost algorithms are applied and compared to predict the severity level and future crashes based on road crash elements. Association rule, an unsupervised learning algorithm, is utilized to understand the association between driver characteristics, geometric elements of the highway, the environment, time, weather, and speed. Slight, medium, and severe injuries and fatalities in crashes are also considered to understand the behavior of road drivers, who are most likely to cause crashes. Fatalities and injuries are studied with spatial statistics analysis. The variables most affecting the severity of the crash are determined and discussed in detail. The results are checked for accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, recall, precision, and F1 score performance. The impact of drivers, vehicles, and road characteristics is investigated in traffic crashes. The random forest model was found to be the most suitable algorithm to predict crash severity levels.
The relationship between road infrastructure parameters and road crashes is not widely investigated in developing countries. The study objective is to create a measure for rating road safety performance as a tool to predict road crashes. A checklist included 184 elements categorized into nine groups, a sample of 105 selected streets in two districts with different population densities and incomes in Amman. The road elements’ safety impact was rated by two groups (professionals and non-professionals). Other data include vehicular and pedestrian traffic, speed, and road crash data. The principal component analysis was used to reduce variables and generalized linear models for the crash prediction considered the parameters or the road safety performance index as the predictors (un/extracted). The results showed that the road safety performance index in the less dense area is better than that of the densely populated. The professionals’ and non-professionals’ safety ratings did not establish a significant consensus. Modeling results indicated that using unextracted predictors poorly predicts road crashes for both the parameters and the Road-Safety-Performance-Index (RSPI). The safety-weighted predictors used in the modeling provide a valid estimate for road crashes with a high correlation of 69% for the) RSPI. Additional traffic parameters improve, to some extent, the prediction power of the RSPI-based models. The study concluded with the need to develop policies and procedures to improve road conditions and their performance, thus enhancing road safety.
In developing countries, road traffic crashes involving pedestrians have become a foremost concern. At present, road safety assessment plans and selection of interventions are primarily restricted to traditional approaches that depend on the investigations of historical crash data. However, in developing countries such as India, the availability, consistency, and accuracy of crash data are major concerns. In contrast, proactive approaches such as studying road users' risk perception have emerged as a substitute method of examining potential risk factors. An individual's risk perception offers vital information on probable crash risk, which may be beneficial in detecting high-risk locations and major causes of crashes. Since the pedestrian fatality risk is not uniform across the urban road network level, it may be expected that pedestrians' perceived risk measured in terms of “crossing difficulty” would also vary across the sites. In this perspective, the present paper establishes a mathematical association between the pedestrians' perceived “crossing difficulty” and actual crashes. The model outcome confirms that pedestrians' perceived crossing difficulty is a good surrogate of fatal pedestrian crashes at the intersection level in Kolkata City, India. Subsequently, to examine the impact of traffic exposures, road infrastructure, land use, spatial factors, and pedestrian-level attributes on pedestrians' “crossing difficulty”; a set of Ordered Logit models are developed. The model outcomes show that high vehicle and pedestrian volume, vehicular speed, absence of designated bus stop, the presence of inaccessible pedestrian crosswalk, on-street parking, lack of signalized control (for both vehicle and pedestrian), inadequate sight distance, land use pattern, slum population, pedestrian-vehicular post encroachment time, waiting time before crossing, road width, and absence of police enforcement at an intersection significantly and positively increase pedestrian's crossing difficulty at urban intersections. To end, the model findings are advantageously utilized to develop a set of countermeasures across 3E's of road safety.
Introduction Ambulance lights and sirens use has traditionally been an important strategy to shorten ambulance travel times. This study explored road users’ perceptions toward the importance and risks of lights and sirens use by ambulances in Jordan. Methods A cross-sectional survey was used on a sample of 1700 adult road users in Northern Jordan. The questionnaire included 19 items addressing demographics, driving-related characteristics, and perception statements toward lights and sirens use. Continuous variables were summarized as means and standard deviation and categorical variables were reported as frequencies and percentages. Chi-square test was used to assess differences between categorical variable. Results A total of 1634 participants completed the questionnaire. The mean age was 32.4 (SD ± 11.4) years, and 65.4% were males. Most participants agreed on the importance of using lights and sirens for emergency medical services to function effectively (96.5%), and penalizing those who do not yield to emergency ambulances (90.2%). However, around half of the participants perceive that lights and sirens could be over-used by ambulance personnel (48.1%), provoke distraction (48.7%) and create stress (50.3%) for road users. These negative perceptions were reported more often among males, taxi/bus drivers, and novice drivers. Conclusions Although the majority of road users, in our region, acknowledge the importance of ambulance lights and sirens use, about half of them perceive that ambulance lights and sirens put them under stress, distraction, and unacceptable risk. Policy-related and educational interventions might be necessary to monitor the use of ambulance lights and sirens and reduce negative road users’ perceptions.
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Twenty years ago, there was enthusiasm for creating safer physical environments through the planning process. We now appear to be at a stage where road safety objectives are denied and the empirical foundations for technical requirements are forgotten. The paper notes the origins and basis of ideas, guidelines and rules for safer physical environments, including a summary of key sources. The central elements involve physical planning to reduce vehicle use, to control the road/land interface on arterials, to locate and layout activity centres, and to create traffic-safe local environments. Many issues can be identified from conflicts between contemporary planning thinking and safety-conscious planning, arising from current interpretations of integrated planning and 'new urbanism'. These centre on the apparent conflict between integration and segregation in the activity environment; the low status given to road safety as a planning objective; the discounting of the relevance of experience and past research; and the almost dogmatic insistence on certain physical forms, some of which may tend to lower rather than improve safety. A comparison of contemporary planning thinking and safety-conscious planning highlights the many contradictions. An example-local planning-is discussed in more detail, highlighting the safety consequences of the 'new urban' core value of 'permeability' (connectivity) in the network. Concerns are noted about the rejection of culs-de-sac and the likely increase of minor-major junctions in the current philosophies. Moving to a common set of outcomes and strategic objectives, a focus on ends rather than means, and an acceptance that traffic-related safety is an important planning criterion are essential first steps before safety conscious planning and the "popular" interpretation of new urbanism can find common ground.
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Because of limited resources and inappropriate maintenance technique, many rural roads in developing countries such as Jordan are characterized by a high level of roughness. Empirical evidence and accident reports revealed that many rural road accidents are associated with severe road defects. This study investigated the effect of pavement condition, road geometry, and roadside conditions on rural road accidents. A comprehensive data base for 1130 km of two-lane primary rural roads in Jordan was developed for this study. Mathematical modelling using regression technique was used to investigate the effects of the included variables on single-vehicle, multiple-vehicle, and total accident rates. Results of the statistical analysis indicated that pavement condition, expressed in terms of the international roughness index or present serviceability rating, had significant effects on single- and multiple-vehicle accident rates, but it had no statistical influence on the total accident rate. Furthermore, the results of this study indicated that the number of sharp horizontal curves and the roadside condition, expressed in terms of the roadside hazard rating, were found to have significant effects on the single-vehicle accident rate. The number of vertical curves and the number of intersections were found to have a significant influence on the multiple-vehicle accidents. Finally, regression models were developed to quantify the effects of the included variables on the previous accident rates.
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Road traffic accidents (RTAs) are increasingly being recognized as a growing public health problem in Bedouin Arabian Gulf countries. The discovery of oil around the middle of the last century has lead to changes in many aspects of life in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), not least in regard to the amount of vehicles on the roads. Whilst affluence may advance a country in terms of technology, infrastructure and economic stability, it is not necessarily the case that general patterns of behaviour will adapt at the same speed. This is one of the reasons suggested for the high number of incidents involving aggressive driving behaviour and driving offenses. The study of such incidents, and their relation to traffic accidents, has become a major concern of researchers over several years. This current investigation presents recent data concerning RTAs and road user behaviour in UAE during 2000. Careless driving is identified as the most important factor in RTAs over the period of study, accounting for over 35% of all incidents, while excessive speed was the second most common cause. The findings are discussed in regard to the necessity of changing behaviour of drivers through media campaigns and health education. It is hoped that the findings of this study may assist decision makers and international consultants in the formulation of policies and the development of alternative plans to improve urban transportation system in the UAE.
The traffic-accident situation in Jordan will continue to worsen due to the following: lack of safety educational programs at schools, lack of publicity propaganda campaigns and lack of specialized units and full-time qualified professionals in the related highway authorities.
Globalization has brought India into the forefront of progress. This development has provided a substantial economic stimulus to enhance progress across India which includes enabling people to afford cars and increase their movement on the roads. Various multinational companies including motor vehicle manufacturers have created establishments in India. The increased usage of the cars has enhanced the need for developing the infrastructure where these motor vehicles can move safely. Developing safe roads which connect destinations and cities is a key foundation to infrastructural development in a country where the population is more than 1 billion. This commentary reviews various aspects of road safety in heavily populated and developing India where motor vehicle trauma is a modern epidemic.