Geophysical Research Abstracts
Vol. 18, EGU2016-17278, 2016
EGU General Assembly 2016
© Author(s) 2016. CC Attribution 3.0 License.
Future projections of ﬁre danger in Brazilian biomes in the 21st century
Renata Libonati (1), Patrícia Silva (2), Carlos DaCamara (2), and Ana Bastos (3)
(1) Department of Meteorology, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (firstname.lastname@example.org), (2) Instituto Dom
Luiz, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisboa, Portugal (email@example.com, firstname.lastname@example.org), (3)
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay,
Gif-sur-Yvette, France (email@example.com)
In the global context, Brazil is one of the regions more severely affected by ﬁre occurrences, with important
consequences in the global CO2balance, the state of the Amazon forest and the ecological diversity of the region.
Brazil is also one of the few regions experiencing a raise in annual mean temperature above 2.5o during the 20th
century, which may further increase between 2o and 7o until 2100 and, likely, be accompanied by a decrease in
precipitation . As the ﬁre occurrence and severity largely depends on these two variables, it is worth assessing
the evolution of ﬁre danger for the coming decades.
In order to obtain a detailed characterization of the future ﬁre patterns in the different biomes of Brazil, we
use outputs from a regional-downscaling of the EC-Earth climate model at 0.44 degrees spatial resolution for
two future scenarios, an intermediate (RCP4.5) and a more severe (RCP8.5) one. We use a ﬁre danger index
speciﬁcally developed for the Brazilian climate and biome characteristics, the IFR from INPE. This index relies
on values of maximum temperature, accumulated precipitation over different periods, minimum relative humidity
and vegetation cover to estimate the likelihood of ﬁre occurrence.
We ﬁnd a systematic increase of the days with critical ﬁre risk, which is more pronounced in RCP8.5 and
mostly affects months when ﬁre activity takes place. Temperature increase is the most determinant factor for the
increase in ﬁre danger in the dry regions of savannah and shrubland, a result to be expected as fuel is already very
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