Conference Paper

The Bitcoin Market Potential Index

Authors:
To read the full-text of this research, you can request a copy directly from the author.

Abstract

The Bitcoin Market Potential Index (BMPI) is a new composite indicator that conceptualizes and ranks the potential utility of bitcoin across 178 countries to show which countries have the most and least potential to see bitcoin adoption. The index utilizes a data set with 40 variables grouped into the index’s seven equally weighted sub-indices: technology penetration, international remittances, inflation, size of informal economy, financial repression, historical financial crises, and bitcoin penetration. Data across the different BMPI variables were first standardized as follows.

No full-text available

Request Full-text Paper PDF

To read the full-text of this research,
you can request a copy directly from the author.

... According to Manyika, Lund, Singer, White, and Berry (2016), Bitcoin offers a means of improving the lives of individuals in the developing world by providing access to savings and credit facilities. As such, the Sub-Saharan Africa is the region where Bitcoin has the greatest adoption potential (Hileman (2015). Yet, there still lack of knowledge about Bitcoin adoption in Sub-Saharan Africa. ...
... Bitcoins are generated through the process of mining as depicted in Figure 1 showing the complete overview of the Bitcoin protocol (Wan & Hoblitzell, 2014a). The Bitcoin Market Potential Index (BMPI), presented in Figure 2, shows that Sub-Saharan Africa is the region where Bitcoin has the greatest adoption potential (Hileman, 2015). BMPI is a composite indicator that evaluates where Bitcoin has the most and least potential for adoption by measuring Bitcoin's perceived usefulness (Hileman, 2015). ...
... The Bitcoin Market Potential Index (BMPI), presented in Figure 2, shows that Sub-Saharan Africa is the region where Bitcoin has the greatest adoption potential (Hileman, 2015). BMPI is a composite indicator that evaluates where Bitcoin has the most and least potential for adoption by measuring Bitcoin's perceived usefulness (Hileman, 2015). Perceived usefulness is affected by perceived ease of use (Lee, 2009). ...
Article
Full-text available
Aim/Purpose: This paper explored the factors (enablers and barriers) that affect Bitcoin adoption in South Africa, a Sub-Saharan country with the high potential for Bitcoin adoption. Background: In recent years, Bitcoin has seen a rapid growth as a virtual cryptocurrency throughout the world. Bitcoin is a protocol which allows value to be exchanged over the internet without a central bank or intermediary. Cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin are technological tools that arguably can contribute to reducing transactions costs. This paper explored the factors that affect Bitcoin adoption in South Africa, a Sub-Saharan country with the high potential for Bitcoin adoption, as little is known about the factors that affect Bitcoin adoption and the barriers to adoption. Methodology: A quantitative questionnaire was distributed to South African virtual communities where Bitcoin is a topic of interest, and 237 quantitative responses were received, along with 212 open-ended comments. Contribution: This research contributes to the body of knowledge in information systems by providing insights into factors that affect Bitcoin adoption in South Africa. It raises awareness of incentives and barriers to Bitcoin adoption at a time when financial literacy is a crucial issue both in South Africa and worldwide. Findings: The results indicate that perceived benefit, attitude towards Bitcoin, subjective norm, and perceived behavioral control directly affected the participants’ intentions to use Bitcoin. Perceived benefit, usefulness, ease of use, and trust-related risk were found to indirectly affect intention to use Bitcoin. Further, it emerges that the barriers to Bitcoin adoption in South Africa consist of the complex nature of Bitcoin and its high degree of volatility. Recommendations for Practitioners: Bitcoin can contribute to reducing transactions costs, but factors that affect adoption and the barriers to adoption should be taken into consideration. These findings can inform systems and software developers to develop applications that make managing Bitcoin keys and transacting using Bitcoin less complex and more intuitive for end users. Recommendation for Researchers: Bitcoin adoption in South Africa is a topic that has not been previously researched. Researchers could research similarities or differences in the various constructs that were used in this research model. Impact on Society: South African Bitcoin users consider it as a universal currency that makes cross-border payments cheaper. A large number of refugees and workers in South Africa make regular payments across borders. Bitcoin could reduce the costs of these transfers. Future Research: Future research could explore Bitcoin (and other cryptocurrencies) adoption in other developing countries. Researchers could look at factors that influence cryptocurrency adoption in general. The factors affecting adoption of other cryptocurrencies can be compared to the results of this study, and similarities and differences can thus be identified.
... Along with the various uses of the cryptos, Bitcoin Market Potential Index (BMPI), consisting of the following ten countries having the "countries with highest relative potential for Bitcoin adoption" has been created (Hileman 2016) (Table 12.3). Table 12.4 illustrates the list of countries with their legal stance toward cryptocurrency. ...
Chapter
Fintech is the buzz word in today’s financial industry landscape. In simple terms, it is a combination of the words “finance” and “technology” to provide a better and innovative financial technology infrastructure for offering financial products and services (Puschmann, 2017; Schueffel, 2016). It is common to associate fintech with mobile-app-related solutions, but it is beyond that, i.e. it encompasses the whole spectrum of digitalisation of financial services with innovation. It has revolutionised the offering of financial products and services by making it affordable, easier and user-friendly in comparison to traditional offerings. At the same time, the increased use of financial technology (fintech) and digital currency is calling for an enhanced regulatory landscape to protect both users and providers of these services.
... Ademais, além de ampliar o mercado eletrônico por ser uma moeda nativa da tecnologia, tem a possibilidade de atrair novos usuários devido suas características próprias, como a descentralização de redução de custos tributários. As criptomoedas são objeto potencial de estudo em diversas áreas de conhecimento, como na perspectiva econômico-financeira, informacional e política, entre outras áreas tangentes, o que demanda uma abordagem interdisciplinar (entre outros, Hileman, 2015;Santos, 2021;Siqueira, 2019). Para alcançar o objetivo da pesquisa, o tema é organizado pelo seu ciclo evolutivo, desde o surgimento das moedas digitais, passando pelo que são, até a discussão das expectativas do mercado financeiro com essa moeda potencialmente revolucionária. ...
Article
Full-text available
Objetivo: O artigo discute um novo meio de transação financeira ainda pouco empregado por grande parte da população, inclusive dos profissionais contábeis, mesmo após 10 anos de sua criação. A pesquisa teve como objetivo discutir sobre a inteligência do uso de criptomoedas nos negócios, na presente “Era das Moedas Digitais”, sob a perspectiva de ser uma vantagem competitiva, aproveitando as oportunidades e suas potencialidades, que tem causado uma revolução no mercado e significativos desafios aos profissionais e sistemas contábeis. Método: Foi realizado um ensaio teórico considerando publicações científicas e profissionais, em âmbitos nacional e internacional, e apresentando discussão sobre os principais pontos de usabilidade e aplicação das criptomoedas como estratégia de vantagem competitiva. Principais Resultados: A pesquisa evidencia a evolução crescente da moeda digital – criptomoedas -, que superou paradigmas e tem se consolidado à medida que os órgãos de controle passam a normatizá-la. Sua aplicação também se demonstra crescente como meio de troca e reserva de valor, com relevante impacto no quantitativo de transações e na sua valorização. A partir da argumentação discutida, evidenciou-se que a adoção das criptomoedas nos negócios pode representar uma significativa vantagem competitiva. Num mundo cada vez mais digital e dependente de meios eletrônicos, a moeda digital vai ganhando seu espaço. Contribuições e Relevância: este ensaio revelou o processo de criação das criptomoedas, seu funcionamento e utilidade, que pode facilitar a aceitabilidade dessa tecnologia pelos usuários. Também demonstra que as criptomoedas apresentam desafios significativos para os iniciantes nesses mecanismos, mas para estes implica em grande potencial estratégico num mercado cada vez mais tecnológico. Palavras-chave: Moeda digital. Mercado eletrônico. Estratégia. Criptomoedas.
... As concentration of cryptocurrency production has transformed patterns of mining recently, most of mining farms are located in China and other low-cost but highly polluting energy producers such as Mongolia and Ukraine [21]. Nevertheless, despite Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies' notable volatility, some studies have shown their capacity to penetrate in markets where fiat currencies are even more volatile than crypto-assets [4,22]. Venezuela is one such case, where hyperinflation and a deep recession has made its citizens abandon the use of the legal tender, the bolívar. ...
Article
In the aftermath of the global financial crisis (2008-2010), peer-to-peer online payment mechanisms emerged as a way to avoid financial intermediaries and untrusted centralized state authorities. Cryptocurrencies proliferated among like-minded individuals, generally depicted by scholars as anarcho-capitalists. Much social science literature has focused on governance and technical puzzles that these new market tools bring about as well as on the risks associated with the problems of trust, security, money laundering and illegal financing. In this article, I shift gaze to center on the material underpinnings of cryptocurrencies, such as energy systems and infrastructure, as well as how cryptocurrencies can expand in contexts of crisis in peripheral societies. I focus on the case of Venezuela to explain some of these processes in the rise and expansion of cryptocurrency markets that have remained at the margins of energy and political economy discussions. A deep dive into Venezuela allows us to de-virtualize our understandings of cryptocurrencies. It redirects our attention to infrastructure, energy, rent, and precarious conditions of living in a crumbling rentier society, shedding light on the use and expansion of cryptocurrencies in a nominally socialist country.
... The¯rst and most well-known cryptocurrency is Bitcoin which was introduced by an individual or group using the alias Satoshi Nakamoto in 2008 (Nakamoto, 2008;Nian and Chuen, 2015). While some regional variations exist (Abraham et al., 2019;Hileman, 2015), the acceptance and penetration of Bitcoin is steadily growing as it can be exchanged for goods, services or legal tender (Abraham et al., 2019;Leung and Dickinger, Cryptocurrencies as Pension Fund Components 2017). The number of Bitcoins to be emitted is capped at 21 million (Nian and Chuen, 2015). ...
Article
This study investigates whether cryptocurrencies can be considered a viable addition to pension funds. Using the regulatory setting of Switzerland, it is assessed whether adding crypto-components to a standard pension fund portfolio has positive effects on the fund's risk and return figures. The empirical data supports the notion that cryptocurrency components may well increase the yield of a pension fund portfolio, yet this enhancement of yield comes at slightly higher risk levels. This increase in risk can be mitigated by adding an actively managed crypto-component to the portfolio rather than a passive investment product. The paper contributes to the ongoing debate in the area of financial innovations on the purpose and solidity of cryptocurrencies as an asset class.
... Reforzando la idea anterior, Hileman (2015) construye un Índice de Mercado Potencial para Bitcoin con el fin de estudiar qué países tendrían mayor utilidad al adoptarlo. El índice utiliza un conjunto de datos con 40 variables relacionadas con las funciones básicas actuales de Bitcoin, las cuales son reserva de valor, medio de pago o cambio y plataforma tecnológica. ...
Article
Full-text available
La integración financiera europea, la reciente crisis económica y financiera, y el amplio desarrollo digital, han transformado profundamente el sector monetario y el mercado de comercio electrónico. Un claro ejemplo de estos cambios es la creación de monedas virtuales como el Bitcoin, que viene a ser una alternativa al sistema monetario tradicional. Bitcoin surge como una solución a la necesidad de los usuarios de un intercambio mundial facilitado por herramientas de pago transnacionales, y que a menudo se traduce en la voluntad de liberarse de los actores tradicionales de los circuitos monetarios. En 2008 se origina este sistema de pagos electrónicos basado en pruebas criptográficas en vez de confianza, permitiendo que dos partes interesadas realicen transacciones directamente sin la necesidad de una tercera parte confiable. Este sistema dio origen a la criptomoneda Bitcoin y la tecnología con la que opera se denominó blockchain o cadena de bloques. En este trabajo se presenta una completa revisión de la tecnología blockchain, de sus principales elementos y características, y su funcionamiento detrás de Bitcoin. Luego, se discute sobre los desafíos en el ámbito regulatorio que conlleva el uso de la criptomoneda, y en torno al impacto potencial de Bitcoin en los mercados financieros locales. Finalmente, se realiza una breve descripción sobre las aplicaciones potenciales de la tecnología blockchain a distintas operaciones en los mercados globales.
... Winning features might change over time. Moreover, some countries might be more prone to adopt a cryptocurrency than others (Hileman 2015), thereby displaying the different cultures around the world. Furthermore, there might be trade-offs in the achievements of different targets, but it is far beyond the scope of this paper to judge whether such trade-offs exist and how they can be addressed. ...
Research
Full-text available
Cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin might revolutionize the economy through enabling peer-to-peer based transactions by abolishing the need for a trusted intermediary. As for now, Bitcoin remains to be the best recognized cryp-tocurrency, in particular in terms of market capitalization. However, as this paper shows, there are plenty of alternatives. This paper outlines the historical roots which have led to the creation of privately emitted, cryptography based digital currencies. Additionally, this paper discusses future possible hurdles of the development of cryptocurrencies and outlines features which might influence the success of a cryptocurrency. Insights into the beginning of cryptocurrency development are gained by analysis of the publicly available DOACC dataset. The paper does so by providing an overview of the techniques and mechanisms used by cryptocurrencies. It shows that newly created cryptocurrencies tend to be very similar in some properties in the early stages but new features and more diversity developed in more recent years. Additionally, newly created cryptocurrencies tend more and more to create a fixed number of coins before the initial announcement in order to sell these in Initial Coin Offerings. Even when the amount of premining increases over years, it remains at lower levels on the aggregate.
... Ayrıca, Bitcoin finansal gizliliğe önem veren ve illegal faaliyetleri olan kişiler tarafından daha çok tercih edilmektedir. Hileman (2015) Bitcoin piyasası potansiyel kullanımlarını incelemiş ve Bitcoin benimsenmesini araştırmıştır. Esas aldıkları Bitcoin potansiyel endeksi Bitcoin'in üç temel fonksiyonuna dayanmaktadır. ...
Article
Full-text available
Abstract Bitcoin first described by Nakamoto (2008) as a virtual currency that allows the transfer of payments to be made directly between the parties. By using Bitcoin as a digital currency for money transfers, the need for trust and transfer costs are reduced. Bitcoin became one of the most popular application areas of block chain technology and a leader among the encrypted payment tools that use this technology. Bitcoin’s market values quickly reached high volumes and practical applications quickly gained widespread acceptance. However, theoretical studies and researches on Bitcoin lag behind this spread. Within the scope of the study, the factors which cause Bitcoin to be accepted and rejected as a new financial product have been interviewed by randomly selected bank employees from Bilecik and Eskişehir provinces. In the study, general findings analysis, independent sample t test and Anova analysis were performed for the data obtained by using survey method. Among the factors that facilitated the adoption of bitcoin, the participants found the term “extended privacy in electronic payment” as the most important, while security of electronic wallets (against hackers) was found as the most effective factor that prevent the adoption and widespread use of Bitcoin. Within the scope of the research, hypotheses were developed according to demographic variables and related analyzes were made and significant differences were found according to the variables. Keywords: Bitcoin, Financial Asset, Investor Behaviour.
... A further application for blockchain technology is that of the autonomous, self-governing and self-regulating infrastructure which is designed to facilitate already stimulated academic research (Andrychowicz, Dziembowski, Malinowski, & Mazurek, 2015;Decker & Wattenhofer, 2013;Vasek, Thornton, & Moore, 2014). This research has prompted amendments and expansion (Barber, Boyen, Shi, & Uzun, 2012;Ben Sasson et al., 2014) of regulatory status and measures (Christopher, 2014;Stokes, 2012;Tu & Meredith, 2015) and economic analysis (Becker et al., 2013;Hileman, 2015;Mai, Bai, Shan, Wang, & Chiang, 2015). The concept of decentralized trust facilitates an alternative solution to traditional client-server architecture. ...
Article
The modern trends of digitalization have completely transformed and reshaped business practices, whole businesses, and even a number of industries. Blockchain technology is believed to be the latest advancement in industries such as the financial sector, where trust is of prime significance. Blockchain technology is a decentralized and coded security system which provides the capability for new digital services and platforms to be created through this emerging technology. This research presents a systematic review of scholarly articles on blockchain technology in the financial sector. We commenced by considering 227 articles and subsequently filtered this list down to 87 articles. From this, we present a classification framework that has three dimensions: blockchain-enabled financial benefits, challenges, and functionality. This research identifies implications for future research and practice within the blockchain paradigm.
... As criptomoedas são objeto potencial de estudo em diversas áreas de conhecimento, como na perspectiva econômico-financeira, informacional e política, entre outras áreas tangentes, o que demanda uma abordagem interdisciplinar (Hileman, 2015). ...
Article
Full-text available
A criptomoeda mais conhecida é o Bitcoin. Ela tem se popularizado rapidamente no Brasil e no mundo. Atualmente, o Bitcoin supera no Brasil o dobro de usuários em relação ao investimento no mercado de ações. Nos últimos anos, muitas novas criptomoedas foram desenvolvidas, como Ethereum, Litecoin, Ripple, VeChain, Neo, Lisk, Binance, Monero, entre outras. Todas elas empregam a tecnologia blockchain. Esta pesquisa tem por objetivo analisar os benefícios e riscos percebidos pelos usuários como determinantes do uso de criptomoedas no Brasil. As perspectivas de avanço no emprego da tecnologia blockchain são muito grandes. O artigo emprega como fundo teórico o Modelo de Aceitação de Tecnologia (MAT), fortemente inspirado na modelagem estatística de Abramova e Bohme (2016), com a inclusão de construtos teóricos: Benefício Percebido (BP), Facilidade de Uso Percebida (FP), Risco Percebido (RP). Estes construtos visam explicar o construto endógeno Possibilidade e Comportamento de Uso (UC) e significativos determinantes, com uso do método estatístico multivariado de modelagem de Equações Estruturai,. Os resultados demonstram que o benefício percebido pelo indivíduo é o principal fator que influencia positivamente os usuários de criptomoedas. Além disso, os riscos percebidos pelos indivíduos não foram significativos para os resultados, divergente ao esperado, a partir dos determinantes perdas financeiras, risco legal e risco operacional.
Article
Purpose Cryptocurrencies such as bitcoins represent a novel method of conducting financial transactions and exchanging money. However, their adoption by the general public remains low. Within countries facing financial distress and characterized by a high level of risk, cryptocurrency adoption might offer opportunities for countering crises. The purpose of this study is to explore the factors that influence individuals' adoption of cryptocurrencies for financial transactions within a high-risk context. Design/methodology/approach To do so, it presents a behavioral model, which is tested using data collected from a survey of 255 respondents residing in Lebanon. The causal relationships between the different factors and individuals' willingness to use cryptocurrencies were then analyzed through Structural Equation Modeling. Findings Findings show that financial technology awareness and social influence contribute to reducing perceived risk and increasing individuals' willingness to use cryptocurrencies, while individuals' risk aversion and the presence of regulatory support increase the perceived risk of cryptocurrencies. Originality/value The study is among the first to use a human-centered approach to understanding cryptocurrency adoption and takes place within a country that is facing a deep financial crisis. Its outcomes contribute to existing theories of cryptocurrency adoption and provide policymakers with insight into how adoption is unfolding namely in developing countries.
Article
Low transaction cost, low level of entry, worldwide quickness, and anonymity of the transactions is the main advantage of cryptocurrency use, making it an attractive transaction media for African countries. At the same time, there are certain drawbacks of it in terms of strong volatility, lack of user-friendliness and its usage in crime. The conceptual paper explores the use of cryptocurrencies, and its potential in the African context. The research paper utilizes UTAUT 2 Model and adds key constructs for analyzing the adoption of new technology by Africans. These additional constructs include hedonistic motivation, habit and price cost. Key factors were considered in the case of African countries in order to analyze whether cryptocurrency is essential for economic growth in some economic countries. The application of UTAUT model in the case of Arica shows that performance, effort expectations, social influence are favorable for African countries while the influence of hedonic motivations and price is unfavorable for acceptance of cryptocurrencies in African countries.
Article
Full-text available
See link below to download it directly https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3215849
Chapter
The financial system across the globe is going through a massive transformation from the traditional mode to the advanced use of technology and rapid financial innovation. The advent of buzzwords such as Financial Technology (FinTech) and cryptocurrency has changed the way we transact money and fulfill our financial needs. FinTech and digital currency such as Bitcoin and other altcoins have changed the financial landscape and have affected masses including Muslims. Given that, Islam as a religion treats money and banking from a different perspective where users and providers of the financial services have to adhere to the Islamic principles (Shari’ah), it is important to assess the impact of financial innovation from Shari’ah perspective.
Article
Cryptocurrency has gained an increasing interest as a new type of technology that is potentially both a leader and a destroyer to the payment industry on a global scale. However, the future of cryptocurrency is unclear because there are many different usage scenarios and different needs of the stakeholders. Blockchain technology is the infrastructure-enabling technology for the cryptocurrency. Blockchain technology has become very powerful and created the backbone of a new type of internet. This research article will give a better future perspective to study the conceptual framework and model for cryptocurrency acceptance and the continued usage of digital finance. This is by using potential business innovations by combining the theory of the innovation diffusion (IDT) and the technology acceptance model (TAM).
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Over the past 40 years or more, world economy has witnessed a significant increase in income inequality. The underlying factors behind rising inequality are hotly debated issues. The deterioration in income share mostly is attributed to skill-biased technical change, distribution of innate skills or skills acquired through education. This paper explores empirical evidence for a connection between inequality and skill using panel data analysis. To investigate the relationships, we employ a data set for 16 countries and the period from 1995 to 2014. In order to determine the stationary characteristics of the variables, we employ CADF, (CIPS) tests approaches. Following of this we employ Gengenbach, Urbain & Westerlund (2015) Panel Cointegration methodology. Our emprical test results concludes that there is a relationship between inequality and skill in long run. These results are consistent with the frame of supply - demand framework
Article
Full-text available
This article focuses on the analysis of the potential of virtual currencies to contribute to global economic development, given their innovative characteristics and their rapid increase in popularity. This article intends to fill the gap in understanding the characteristics and the risks of the emergence of virtual currencies as part of the global financial systems. There is a huge potential of the new currencies backed by blockchain technology, to develop the existing payment systems and upgrade them, as they represent an innovative form of money with increased security of the transactions. For instance, the central banks of some of the world financial leaders, such as the US, UK, China, etc. have been experimenting with the possibility of integrating the technology behind the virtual currencies into the internal payment systems. In this sense, the governments are also working on creating a better legal framework to improve the recognition, licensing and registration of virtual currencies as an official form of payment, and also creating a better control mechanism of the new currency (Vejacka, 2014).
Chapter
Cryptocurrency has gained an increasing interest as a new type of technology that is potentially both a leader and a destroyer to the payment industry on a global scale. However, the future of cryptocurrency is unclear because there are many different usage scenarios and different needs of the stakeholders. Blockchain technology is the infrastructure-enabling technology for the cryptocurrency. Blockchain technology has become very powerful and created the backbone of a new type of internet. This research article will give a better future perspective to study the conceptual framework and model for cryptocurrency acceptance and the continued usage of digital finance. This is by using potential business innovations by combining the theory of the innovation diffusion (IDT) and the technology acceptance model (TAM).
Article
This paper investigates the prediction power of economic policy uncertainty on Bitcoin trading (return, volume, and volatility) over the period from May 2013 to June 2019. We employ the Transfer Entropy model with the following two different regimes (i) stationary and (ii) nonstationary assumption. We construct different algorithm calculations for returns, volume and volatility to test how this proxy impacts. We find that the global Economic Policy Uncertainty negatively causes Bitcoin volumes and volatilities. Therefore, under uncertain regimes, investors are risk-averse to trade, which makes the market less volatile. Our findings confirm the existence of pessimistic risk premium, the theory of deteriorating liquidity and the widen bid-ask spread, which lead to a decline in trading volume under uncertainties in the Bitcoin market. By using different reliable data sources as well as expanding timeframe until May 2020 with COVID-19 pandemic, our results remain robust. Hence, the practical implications will be the useful tools for different parties in the Bitcoin market in the financial turbulence context.
Article
Full-text available
This paper analyzes possible definitions of virtual currencies in legislation and economics. Views of the European Central Bank, Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, and Financial Action Task Force regarding virtual currencies are studied. The analysis also covers the draft legislation to ban money surrogates in the Russian Federation. The author suggests two reasonable approaches to defining virtual currencies in law and economics. The Austrian School representatives’ arguments on the existence of private money are reviewed. The author proposes the introduction of some changes in the legislation of the Russian Federation in order to give legal status to virtual currencies.
Article
Full-text available
We perform a comprehensive measurement analysis of Silk Road, an anonymous, international online marketplace that operates as a Tor hidden service and uses Bitcoin as its exchange currency. We gather and analyze data over eight months between the end of 2011 and 2012, including daily crawls of the marketplace for nearly six months in 2012. We obtain a detailed picture of the type of goods being sold on Silk Road, and of the revenues made both by sellers and Silk Road operators. Through examining over 24,400 separate items sold on the site, we show that Silk Road is overwhelmingly used as a market for controlled substances and narcotics, and that most items sold are available for less than three weeks. The majority of sellers disappears within roughly three months of their arrival, but a core of 112 sellers has been present throughout our measurement interval. We evaluate the total revenue made by all sellers, from public listings, to slightly over USD 1.2 million per month; this corresponds to about USD 92,000 per month in commissions for the Silk Road operators. We further show that the marketplace has been operating steadily, with daily sales and number of sellers overall increasing over our measurement interval. We discuss economic and policy implications of our analysis and results, including ethical considerations for future research in this area.
Book
Full-text available
This Handbook aims to provide a guide for constructing and using composite indicators for policy makers, academics, the media and other interested parties. While there are several types of composite indicators, this Handbook is concerned with those which compare and rank country performance in areas such as industrial competitiveness, sustainable development, globalisation and innovation. The Handbook aims to contribute to a better understanding of the complexity of composite indicators and to an improvement of the techniques currently used to build them. In particular, it contains a set of technical guidelines that can help constructors of composite indicators to improve the quality of their outputs. It has been prepared jointly by the OECD (the Statistics Directorate and the Directorate for Science, Technology and Industry) and the Applied Statistics and Econometrics Unit of the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission in Ispra, Italy. Primary authors from the JRC are Michela Nardo, Michaela Saisana, Andrea Saltelli and Stefano Tarantola. Primary authors from the OECD are Anders Hoffmann and Enrico Giovannini. Editorial assistance was provided by Candice Stevens, Gunseli Baygan and Karsten Olsen. The research is partly funded by the European Commission, Research Directorate, under the project KEI (Knowledge Economy Indicators), Contract FP6 No. 502529. In the OECD context, the work has benefitted from a grant from the Danish government. The views expressed are those of the authors and should not be regarded as stating an official position of either the European Commission or the OECD. Ce Manuel a pour objectif de procurer aux responsables politiques, universitaires, médias et autres parties concernées un guide sur la façon d’élaborer et d’utiliser des indicateurs composites. Si il existe plusieurs types d’indicateurs composites, ce Manuel intéresse ceux qui comparent et classent la performance d’un pays dans des domaines comme la compétitivité industrielle, le développement durable, la mondialisation et les innovations. Le Manuel a pour objectif de contribuer à une meilleure compréhension de la complexité des indicateurs composites et à une amélioration des techniques actuellement utilisées pour les élaborer. En particulier, il contient une série de lignes directrices techniques qui peuvent aider les concepteurs d’indicateurs composites à améliorer la qualité de leurs productions. Il a été conjointement préparé par l’OCDE (la Direction des statistiques et la Direction de la science, de la technologie et de l’industrie) et la cellule des Statistiques appliquées et de l’économétrie du Centre commun de recherche (CCR) de la Commission européenne à Ispra en Italie. Les auteurs originaux du CCR sont Michela Nardo, Michaela Saisana, Andrea Saltelli et Stefano Tarantola. Les auteurs originaux de l’OCDE sont Anders Hoffmann et Enrico Giovannini. L’assistance éditoriale a été assurée par Candice Stevens, Gunseli Baygan et Karsten Olsen. Les recherches sont partiellement financées par la Direction des recherches de la Commission européenne, pour le projet KEI (Knowledge Economy Indicators), Contrat FP6 no. 502529. Pour ce qui est de l’OCDE, le travail a bénéficié d’une subvention du gouvernement danois. Les points de vue exprimés sont ceux des auteurs et ils ne doivent pas être considérés comme l’expression d’une position officielle de la Commission européenne ou de l’OCDE.
Article
Composite indicators are increasingly used for bench-marking countries' performances. Yet doubts are often raised about the robustness of the resulting countries' rankings and about the significance of the associated policy message. We propose the use of uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis to gain useful insights during the process of building composite indicators, including a contribution to the indicators' definition of quality and an assessment of the reliability of countries' rankings. We discuss to what extent the use of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis may increase transparency or make policy inference more defensible by applying the methodology to a known composite indicator: the United Nations's technology achievement index. Copyright 2005 Royal Statistical Society.
How can we cut the high costs of remittances to Africa
  • M Cirasino
A History of Alternative Currencies
  • G Hileman
Composite indicators: the controversy and the way forward. Statistics, Knowledge and Policy Key Indicators to Inform Decision Making
  • A Saltelli
  • M Nardo
  • M Saisana
  • S Tarantola