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Futures Studies, Scenarios, and the "Possibility-space" Approach
Abstract
Riel Miller presents the field of futures studies, drawing a number of parallels with the study of history. He describes how the search for greater predictive accuracy involves risks.
... 25). This is equally true of futures studies in general, which Miller (2006) contends, lacks a coherent and commonly accepted foundation when compared to other well-established academic disciplines. 15 . ...
... futures studies in general, which Miller (2006) contends, lacks a coherent and commonly accepted foundation when compared to other well-established academic disciplines. Godet (1990) notes that the absence of a theoretical underpinning for scenario planning is because the growth in popularity of scenarios has happened for practical reasons rather than theoretical ones, and as a result 'theoretical research and sophisticated tools have been neglected in favour of multiple applications' (p. ...
This dissertation attempts to deepen the intellectual traffic between Scenario Planning and Science and Technology Studies. It does this by taking on the lenses of empirical research of practice at the sites of the production of futures in facilitated scenario planning workshops and the certified knowledge produced about futures and scenarios in academic accounts and claims. Taking seriously the observation that scenario planning is the "laboratory" where futures are discovered and experimented upon, this dissertation leverages the insights developed in the so-called "Laboratory Studies" in STS to unravel the inner workings of the practices of scenario planning (Latour & Wollgar, 1979). The findings support the notions that the relations between science, laboratories, and scenarios are not trivial: The scientists and scenarists, with their instruments, methods, colleagues, and laboratories, carefully inscribe, negotiate, edit, and enact futures.
... 25). This is equally true of futures studies in general, which Miller (2006) contends, lacks a coherent and commonly accepted foundation when compared to other well-established academic disciplines.<FOOTNOTE: Emphasis added.> ...
... 25). This is equally true of futures studies in general, which Miller (2006) contends, lacks a coherent and commonly accepted foundation when compared to other well-established academic disciplines. Godet (1990) notes that the absence of a theoretical underpinning for scenario planning is because the growth in popularity of scenarios has happened for practical reasons rather than theoretical ones, and as a result 'theoretical research and sophisticated tools have been neglected in favour of multiple applications' (p. ...
For more than a decade, futures studies scholars have prefaced scholarly contributions by repeating the claim that there is insufficient theory to support chaotic scenario methodology. The strategy is formulaic, and the net effect is a curious one, which the authors refer to as the scenario planning paradox. Contributing fresh theory supposedly attends to the “dismal” state of theory, while contributing new typologies purportedly helps bring order to methodological chaos. Repeated over time, the contribution strategy breaks down. Effort to resolve the theoretical and methodological issue, which motivates re-statement of the claim in the first place, ultimately fails. In actuality, the field is distanced from its purported goals. The “dismal” state of theory encourages scholars to adopt theory that is not necessarily tethered to a common core, which does not contribute to a shared, foundational theoretical perspective in futures studies. Perceived chaos gives way to typologies, which, as they mount, contribute to the chaos they were meant to resolve. The end result, intended by no one, is that theory remains dismal and methods remain chaotic. This direction for the field is indefensible and untenable; either the field accepts this claim as a statement of truth, for which the solution is substantially enhanced empiricism, or rejects the claim and re-interprets the bounty produced by said claim to be a kind of richness in theory and method rather than the implicit paucity, poverty, and imperfection that they oft signify to the field now.
... A second, related problem is that while the past is fixed and what happened cannot be changed, historians interpretations change over time because they are interpreting the past based on the general intellectual, moral, and cultural values of the society at the time in which they live-a characteristic often referred to as 'zeitgeist'. As the values of society change, the historians' depiction of the past changes too; thus the metrics and benchmarks used to assess change also change (Miller, 2006). The result is a multiplicity of interpretive discourses surrounding historical events. ...
... 25). This is equally true of futures studies in general, which Miller (2006) contends, lacks a coherent and commonly accepted foundation when compared to other wellestablished academic disciplines. Godet (1990) notes that the absence of a theoretical underpinning for scenario planning is because the growth in popularity of scenarios has happened for practical reasons rather than theoretical ones, and as a result 'theoretical research and sophisticated tools have been neglected in favour of multiple applications' (p. ...
The historian Eric Hobsbawm stated that ‘The safest empirical generalization about history is still that nobody heeds its obvious lessons much’. Whether at a macroeconomic level or within individual organisations there are numerous examples of this, such as the economic crash of 2008, the causes of which had many parallels with those that caused the great depression 80 years previously. On the other hand however, overly-relying on the past as a guide to the future has its own obvious dangers − not least that important future events may have no past precedent. As such, the present paper firstly provides a discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of using the past as a guide to the future. It then examines the role of history in scenario work, arguing that history should receive greater emphasis as part of the scenario planning process. We suggest changes to the standard Intuitive Logics (IL) approach to scenario planning which would render learning from history a more central component of the scenario process, in contrast to its current peripheral role. Rather than diminishing scenario planning’s ability to facilitate a consideration of how the future may differ from the past, we show how a greater emphasis on history can enhance consideration of the causality of future change. An adapted IL that has more emphasis on historical analysis can augment scenario planning’s effectiveness as a tool for consideration of the future.
... A central tenet in the field of futures studies holds that the future is not a singular thing. Rather, futures are frames in which we view the present and anticipate and pursue potential changes (see Bishop, Hines, and Collins 2007;Miller 2006). This line of thinking applies well to educational discourse. ...
Education is inherently entangled with the future. This argumentative review examines this entanglement and proposes a framework differentiating between four educational orientations towards the future. The orientation 'Futures of education' examines how education changes in the future: From rhetorical to visionary, these futures are concerned with issues such as educational technology. 'Education to adapt to the future' is concerned with how education prepares young people to face projected or unknown conditions and focuses on issues such as future jobs. 'Education to change the future' sees learners as having influence on the future and relates to issues such as sustainability and agency. 'Education about futures' involves bringing the potential and unpredictability of future into classrooms and is concerned with students' futures literacy. Focusing on questions of educational aims, critical perspectives and technology, literature around these orientations is examined to support more conscious discourse on the relationship between education and the future.
... En este contexto, y de acuerdo con Curry y Schultz (2009), el término escenarios denota historias o narrativas de futuros posibles, y rodea a la cadena de eventos y los puntos de decisión que se despliegan para crear cualquier alternativa dada de futuro. Esta producción de escenarios es lo que, entendidos como espacios de posibilidad, alienta la especulación sobre las múltiples y diversas alternativas de futuros que expertos y no expertos pueden tener a su alcance para fortalecer su proceso de toma de decisiones (Miller, 2006), tomando además en cuenta que el futuro es una dimensión temporal sobre la que pensamos y reflexionamos en el tiempo presente, con la meta de alcanzar el mejor futuro deseable para nosotros mismos (Beara y Dubovicki, 2019). ...
La alianza de los estudios de futuros y la prospectiva como práctica de intervención social y toma de decisiones, sugiere el potencial de ambas disciplinas como herramientas que produzcan escenarios de futuros, fortaleciendo la sustentabilidad del medio rural. Este documento presenta una propuesta metodológica construida desde un enfoque de sistemas socio-ambientales complejos adaptativos, cumpliendo tres procesos: (i) modelar el sistema complejo, (ii) producir un escenario base con enfoque socio-ambiental, y (iii) producir escenarios de futuros deseables para su análisis. El modelo obtiene y gestiona información clave proporcionada por habitantes rurales y expertos mediante dinámicas que recuperan estructuras de juegos serios, fomentando la ideación participativa y alimentando el sistema de indicadores SAMSPE. Se presentan resultados de su aplicación en diferentes regiones de México, analizando su utilidad en comunidades rurales con alta marginación que habitan ecosistemas vulnerables, concluyendo que los modelos participativos de futuros contribuyen a la sustentabilidad del desarrollo de estas.
... The future prototypes presented in Figure 3 and Figure 4 are diegetic, like those used in SD. They function as tools for expanding the possibility space through prototypes, eliciting speculation about a larger fictional world, a larger social context, and a variety of alternative futures (Miller, 2006). These artifacts encourage reflection on potential problems or emerging alternatives, forging links between past and present practices and future possibilities. ...
... It is the uncertainty and doubt in the possibility space (Miller 2006) that is opened by the vital question of, 'what is next?' that is deemed to be of value (Dator 2009). Not only is what can be known and how we should know brought into question, but far more significantly, we are no longer acting on the basis of what we claim to know. ...
This paper explores relationships between recent developments in the fields of mobilities, futures, and postdigital studies. The article covers six main themes: questions and their histories; definitions; research methods and ethics; the nature and ownership of knowing and learning; understandings of time, space, identity, community, and relationships; and political processes and political legitimacy. The article was written in three steps. In the first step, the leading author (John Traxler) has identified the relevant themes. In the second step, proponents of each position have freely responded to the themes (futures studies, Stuart Connor; postdigital theory, Sarah Hayes and Petar Jandrić; mobilities, John Traxler). In the third step, the responses have been collectively (re)mixed and edited, identifying complementary and conflicting concepts and ideas. The article was initiated a month before the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, and it was completed over one and a half years later. Thusly, responses and analyses have included the pandemic experience without explicitly focusing to the Covid-19 pandemic. The paper concludes with drawing together contributions, seeking underlying commonalities and differences, and looking for trends, convergence, and change. Epistemically, the three positions discussed in this paper are far from commensurable. Yet they are compatible and complementary, in a postdigital dialogue, in a sense that they all need each others’ inputs on the road to a better understanding of our current condition, and the road to a better future.
... • Possibility space, which includes not only that which is but also that which might be, along with the inherent capacities of objects and those laws governing their behavior and interaction that define what future possibilities exist and are more or less likely to be realized (DeLanda, 2011;Miller, 2006). ...
In this text it is argued that immersion in virtual reality (VR) with the aid of contemporary VR equipment may offer access to novel types of virtual worlds that differ qualitatively from the “real” world and from other types of fictional worlds. The text begins by (a) distinguishing between VR systems, virtual environments, and virtual worlds; (b) showing how the virtual worlds facilitated by VR systems resemble and differ from the “virtual worlds” created in one’s mind when, for example, reading a novel or watching a film; and (c) identifying necessary and optional elements of a VR-facilitated virtual world. Employing a phenomenological approach that draws on the thought of Ingarden and Norberg-Schulz, it is shown that a visitor to a VR-facilitated virtual world can (and frequently does) shift his or her conscious attention along three different “axes”. First, one’s attention can move “horizontally” between the media that disclose the virtual world through different senses. Second, one’s attention can shift “vertically” between the virtual world’s different ontological strata, including its layers of myriad atomic stimuli; distinguishable elements that possess spatiotemporal extension; assemblages of elements that have a context and relations but lack individual meaning; glimpses that build up a lattice of meaning and contribute to one’s knowledge of the world; and the virtual world envisioned as a coherent mentally concretized whole. Third, one’s attention can shift “interspatially” between the many different overlapping constituent spaces of the virtual world, including its perceptual, concrete, natural, built, identifiable, technological, emotional, social, economic, political, cultural, ecological, and possibility spaces. This triaxial phenomenological framework can shed new light on the rich and diverse ways in which VR-facilitated virtual worlds manifest themselves as emergent wholes constituted within human consciousness; also, it suggests approaches by which visitors might more proactively mentally explore and come to inhabit such virtual worlds.
... Most futurists tend to have such concentrations in their studies as the predictability of tomorrow that is the product processed over time from our decisions of today. Moreover, it is an arduous process to predict about one future because there is a set of possible futures that all will be influenced by different drives (Miller, 2006). That is the reason why studies about future are in pluralistic structures. ...
Foreign language textbook, intercultural approach
... In this context, scenarios are one method commonly used to help expand our "possibility space" by encouraging speculation of multiple and widely varied alternative futures (Miller 2006) and can offer new potential for education. Widely used across strategic foresight and futures studies, the scenario development process (Voros 2001) has a wide range of applications and specific uses from the highly quantitative approach of the IPCC scenarios to the more rapid generation of scenarios through the selection of uncertainty axes. ...
The research starts from the premise that as the world is changing rapidly and in nonlinear ways, we are educating future practitioners for jobs and contexts that don’t yet exist. They instead need to be equipped to work for and with uncertainty to be able to grapple with the scale and pace of emergent change. The fields of design and futures studies bring significant insights to this challenge, including an array of methods, tools, and frameworks for prospective and systemic explorations of alternative futures. The emerging field of design futures can be framed as ways to develop and deploy prompts, artifacts, and narratives to critically interrogate tomorrow’s societal debates today; as such, it is intentional from the outset in its pursuit of preferable futures and therefore social and environmental justice. The process of imagining the future is an active, values-laden social practice, which requires a layered approach to a methodology to surface and challenge dominant patterns—making it an ideal approach for training the young people who will shape our future. This article reports on the design and delivery of participatory workshops that employ design futures methods to facilitate the exploration of transformative change for sustainability. These workshops were conducted with young people aged sixteen to seventeen to equip them to develop and explore alternative futures. The results suggest that design futures methods can facilitate participants from non-design backgrounds to develop alternative futures and artifacts that might sit within them. It was found that developing a sense of ownership was key to enabling participants to effectively reflect on alternative futures and their implications. Finally, the study highlights the potential for these methods to inform both design and sustainability pedagogy.
... The LMF's vision of regeneration emerges from a negotiation between quantitatively-based projections of the future and aesthetic renderings of a 'better' future that aim to resolve the challenges of the present together with anticipated future challenges of providing homes, employment and services for a shifting and growing population. Both practices of calculation and practices of imagination work to construct a 'possibility space' (Miller 2006) from within which particular possible outcomes are then selected in order to produce a vision. In the first part of the LMF, diagrammatic plans articulate regeneration as a story of change with a leading thread that extends out of the site's industrial past, through to the challenges of its postindustrial and borderland condition in the late twentieth century, before resolving these challenges in the form of six spatial concepts of regeneration legacy involving the creation by the 2030s of a well-connected 'Water City' encompassing five compact, mixed-tenure neighbourhoods (LDA, 2009: 41-91). ...
To understand how the legacy of urban regeneration promised by events like the London 2012 Olympics is constructed, the masterplanning process is analysed as an assemblage of heterogeneous elements that construct futures as knowable and actionable objects in the present. Building on recent applications of actor-network theory to planning studies, the value of the concept of ‘anticipatory assemblage’ is demonstrated. The example of London 2012 masterplanning underlines how masterplanning as an anticipatory activity is performed through networks which are formed through the circulation of expectations and visions as networked ‘intermediaries’. Through these intermediaries, ordered processes are set in motion, and requirements for subsequent activities established. Further, it is shown how this use of concepts of anticipatory assemblages can help understand the political significance of masterplanning in the present, which depends on how organised forms of anticipation re-order social and material relationships in the present, including some actors as participants within anticipatory assemblages and excluding others.
... 25). This is equally true of futures studies in general, which Miller (2006) contends, lacks a coherent and commonly accepted foundation when compared to other well-established academic disciplines. ...
... There has been a recent movement to challenge that 'professional futurists' are the only ones who can tackle long-term and large-scale problems, and their tools are now used more frequently outside of business (Montgomery & Woebken, 2016). Scenarios are one tool commonly used to help expand our "possibility space" by encouraging speculation of multiple and widely varied alternative futures (Miller, 2006). ...
The limits of the modern lifestyle have been well established. What comes next? Design lacks a collective vision, or set of aspirational futures, to work towards. Increasing evidence suggests the transition towards a sustainable society must consist of sustainable lifestyles, designed and owned by individual people and communities. This research builds upon a set of lifestyle scenarios set in the year 2050, derived from the SPREAD 2050 and EUInnovatE projects, in order to explore the use of speculative methods to enable designers and future citizen-designers to reflect upon their practices and enact more radical change. The authors developed design workshops to examine the potential of speculative design applied in practice as a tool for systems change. The results have shown promise as a method for influencing a change in mindset amongst designers, and suggest opportunities for future research investigating how artefacts of change can create pathways towards a sustainable society.
... There has been a recent movement to challenge that 'professional futurists' are the only ones who can tackle long-term and large-scale problems, and their tools are now used more frequently outside of business (Montgomery & Woebken, 2016). Scenarios are one tool commonly used to help expand our "possibility space" by encouraging speculation of multiple and widely varied alternative futures (Miller, 2006). ...
The limits of the modern lifestyle have been well established. What comes next? Design lacks a collective vision, or set of aspirational futures, to work towards. Increasing evidence suggests the transition towards a sustainable society must consist of sustainable lifestyles, designed and owned by individual people and communities. This research builds upon a set of lifestyle scenarios set in the year 2050, derived from the SPREAD 2050 and EUInnovatE projects, in order to explore the use of speculative methods to enable designers and future citizen-designers to reflect upon their practices and enact more radical change. The authors developed design workshops to examine the potential of speculative design applied in practice as a tool for systems change. The results have shown promise as a method for influencing a change in mindset amongst designers, and suggest opportunities for future research investigating how artefacts of change can create pathways towards a sustainable society.
... Future matters to us and the possibility of a future with greater freedom calls for the development of more systematic and reined tools for thinking about the future (Miller, 2006). Concomitantly, these tools should be developed keeping in mind the human psychopathology. ...
The most common approaches to the topic of low carbon economy (LCE) have been the purview of economics (analysis of new business opportunities in the field of renewable sources of energy and energy efficiency) and engineering (developing and making available new technologies). However, an analysis of the human being’s inner nature and associated behavior along with their potential power to promote or oppose goodness in the transition to a LCE can contribute to removing anthropogenic obstacles to its implementation through a process of consciousness. While the transition to a LCE has already begun, its timetable remains in question. Anticipating this transition is critical, as its delay can lead to high economic and human tolls; and the worst case scenario could be the destruction of the planet and life on it. While the movement toward a LCE should proceed faster, an apparent lack of willingness on the part of man is representative of dichotomy between man consciously striving toward a better future but unconsciously delaying or sabotaging it. According to Analytical Trilogy, the main causes of mental illnesses and social disturbances drive from psychological factors that spring up from the individual’s inner self linked to the inverted application of his will, encouraged by similarly inverted society and values. Using Analytical Trilogy, this study will seek to show how the inner nature and the behavior of the human being do not always match with the ideal of LCE, and how this is translated in man’s unconscious obstructionism to rapid transition to a LCE. The Analytical Trilogy method allows one to understand how the human being’s behavior is misled (pathology). With the understanding brought by this study, we can deal with the individual and social pathology in decision making, preparing society for anticipating the LCE transition and accepting a better future.
... The main purpose of the scenarios is to define the existing tendencies and open up the unknown, combine the existentials bound to occur in the future and the unknown (Schoemaker, 1992). Also, scenarios are used in creation process of the alternative futures (Tzu-Ying, 2011) and they help the decision makers in giving a thought to the institutional alterations (Miller, 2006). ...
Today, one of the most important sources forcing the educational institutions to alteration is the developments in informatics and communication technologies. Among these alterations, the internet and the tablet computers, which may cause a vital transformation in the history of education, are of importance. Making assumptions, based on today, concerning possible situations in the future and evaluating the reflections of the tablet computers, which have recently left a mark on the education process, on the elementary education process have gained importance. In this study, putting forth the future reflections of the tablet computers on the elementary education process is aimed by means of scenarios and predictions. In the study, how using the tablet computers in educational environment will affect the elementary education and to which extends it will, are focused on and predictions regarding the future was made. Suggestions were given to educators in the light of the findings presented as a result of the study.
This chapter argues that the arrival of the Anthropocene era requires a substantial re-set of science education. It makes a case for re-orienting science education to foreground meta-level understanding of science (looking at it “from above,” in the social/political/cultural/historical context in which it arose) over science’s “content,” its modes of inquiry, and/or its internal social practices. The chapter posits using deconstruction-based approaches to create, not the “used futures” science education is currently entangled with, but the new futures we need. The approaches set out in the chapter would be quite unlike the forms of science education we know today, but, given science’s role in bringing about the Anthropocene era, that is its central point.
Communities worldwide are in flux, challenged by uncertainty and volatile pressures to redefine their built, ecological, economic and social existence. It raises fundamental questions about how communities can be enabled to better plan for change and set out a future trajectory that enables them to thrive. The paper proposes a speculative futures model that positions design at the heart of the sustainability debate. It proposes a paradigm shift to meet the complex challenges of the future, underpinned by three sustainable design transitions outlined in the paper, namely systemic sustainable design, regenerative sustainable design and speculative sustainable design. The focus on sustainable transitions enables design to transcend the limitations that come with a problem-solving perspective of sustainability. Within this context, the medium of design, and architecture in particular, is positioned as an active agent of change that can positively influence the dynamic relations that constitute living systems at all scales. It reframes the core focus of sustainable design as enabling continual systemic transformation, where resilience is pursued—not by resisting change—but by designing for change. The author applied the proposed model within the context of an academic research-by-design process. Referring three project case studies, the potential of the approach is examined as a tool to create new entry paths towards critical imaginaries that can engage with the complex challenges of the future while positioning design as a medium to stimulate agency, enabling informed collective decision making.
The two months’ lockdown instituted during March–May 2020 was not only a period of trauma, fear, and isolation, but also an opportunity for individual re-centering and questioning about the future of the global economic system and of the business activities in which we were engaged before the pandemics. To investigate the personal opinions of French managers and entrepreneurs, we contacted 30 business leaders participating to an MBA program at Montpellier Business School. After obtaining the consent of all the respondents, we sent by email five questions, asking them to answer to the best of their abilities, based on their previous professional experience and present personal insights. The questions were related to the potential transformation of the global business institutions, work environment, and corporate strategies and are reproduced in Appendix 1.1. After 10 days, we received their answers, which have been analyzed using discourse analysis methods, to identify, classify, and connect the main themes presented by respondents. Although the topics raised in various questions were quite different, it was possible to classify the respondents by their general attitude regarding the pandemics. We identified three main categories: (i) pragmatists, who considered the pandemic as an unfortunate, but limited event, with minimal consequences on life and work routines; (ii) transformationists, who viewed the pandemic as a trigger event for deep social, economic, and cultural transformations that will ultimately improve our life and society; and (iii) catastrophists, who considered the pandemic as the first episode of a long series of future escalating crises.
The article discusses the potential of speculative and improvisational modes of rehearsing collective futures in the context of the interlinked crises associated with the Anthropocene, among these climate change. The article draws on insights from a series of research, arts and public engagement projects where collaborative scenario–making was explored as a way of opening up civic space in the face of the high levels of uncertainty, global risks and collective action problems associated with climate futures and societal transformations. Scenarios are proposed as rehearsal spaces for more collective modes of responding to the prospect of uncertain futures. The article introduces the conceptual innovation of speculative improvisations, binding together strands from anticipation and futures studies, speculative research, speculative design thinking and participatory action on and engagement in urban futures. The article suggests that thinking and practicing the future otherwise involves considering responses and responsibilities in the present day as well as reconfiguring ways of imagining the future. The article considers the possibilities for speculative improvisations and develops the idea of collective scenarios as the anticipatory framework – or rehearsal – that can support a more vibrant and imaginative sense of how societies can be prepared for uncertain futures.
Providing opportunities for younger generations to voice out their views in the building of our common futures within the limits, opportunities, and dynamics of the biosphere is a central component in sustainability learning. To this aim, a novel methodological approach using participatory theater was implemented to explore future scenarios with young people in the Man and Biosphere Reserve of La Sepultura, Mexico. Three workshops were carried out as part of a broader environmental education process, aimed at enhancing critical awareness and ownership of participants’ own futures. Through the reflective enactment of scenarios linked to personal actions and resources, alternative ways to think through the interconnections and the affective bonds between participants and their natural heritage were collectively represented and explored. Our process helped not only to identify different plausible futures and potential barriers to them, but also to realize positive roles that young people could play to overcome such barriers and engage with their desired futures.
In this paper I aim to combine the theoretical connections between systemic thinking and scenario method [1] as well as the communication and shaping of future mobility systems. This last aim is an inherent task of futures research. We will present the main results of a scenario process for electric mobility in Berlin 2025. Furthermore we set the scenarios in a broader context of new modes of mobility. The power of scenarios consists in the ability to challenge dominating paradigms. [2] But it is not an automatic process. The communication of scenarios as well as the strategic implementation in different policy fields is the true challenge of planning and futures research. The intelligence and reasonableness of this kind of future communication will decide on the successful diffusion of electric mobility and the emergence of new forms of mobility in general.
Since its inception, science education has been the focus of a great many reform attempts. In general, the aim has been to improve science understanding and/or make science study more interesting and/or relevant to a wider range of students. However, these reform attempts have had limited success. This paper argues that this is in part because science education as a discipline has some “blind spots”, some unacknowledged assumptions that obstruct its development and make it immune to change. While this has long been a problem, the paper argues that, in the new, “postnormal” conditions of the twenty-first century, it is now imperative that we see these blind spots and think differently about what science education is for. School science as we now know it (along with the other school subjects) developed as part of, and in parallel with, modern economies/societies, which in turn depended on the burning of fossil fuels. However, because this period of “carbonised modernity” is now coming to an end, many of the assumptions it was built on must be re-examined. This has (or should have) major implications for science education. Via an exploration of three very different “orientations to the future”, the paper aims to provoke discussion of how science education could be reconceptualised to support our transition into the post-carbon, Anthropocene era.
Over the last several hundred years, local and national educational systems have evolved from relatively simple systems to incredibly complex, interdependent, policy-laden structures, to which many question their value, effectiveness, and direction they are headed. System Dynamics is a field of analysis used to guide policy and system design in numerous fields including business and urban planning. Applying this tool to educational policy analysis offers insights into the hidden dynamics of the current system, and can be an invaluable tool in designing future scenarios. We explore underlying dynamics of the current US educational system using System Dynamics modeling, and offer an analysis of this tool and its practical application in the US educational system through a case study on the US state of Rhode Island in the 2007-2008 school year.
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