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q -deformations and the dynamics of the larch bud-moth population cycles

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Abstract

The concept of q-deformation of numbers is applied here to improve and modify a tritrophic population dynamics model to understand defoliation of the coniferous larch trees due to outbreaks of the larch bud-moth insect population. The results are in qualitative agreement with observed behavior, with the larch needle lengths, bud-moth population and parasitoid populations all showing 9-period cycles which are mutually synchronized. © 2014 by World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd. All rights reserved.

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... Quantum deformation (q-deformation) is a relatively recent branch of mathematical analysis yet it has been shown to have many applications. Applications in nuclear physics are given in [43], while application in population dynamics is given in [19]. Other applications in Yang-Baxter models are presented in [8]. ...
... The Neimark-Sacker bifurcation of system (3) occurs at the equilibrium point P 3 (x * , y * ) if the two conditions (19) and (23) ...
... Quantum deformation (q-deformation) is a relatively recent branch of mathematical analysis yet it has been shown to have many applications. Applications in nuclear physics are given in [43], while application in population dynamics is given in [19]. Other applications in Yang-Baxter models are presented in [8]. ...
... The Neimark-Sacker bifurcation of system (3) occurs at the equilibrium point P 3 (x * , y * ) if the two conditions (19) and (23) ...
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... The q deformation also plays a vital role in modelling various biological systems for understanding their dynamics. In Ref. [16], the concept of q deformation is applied to improve and modify a tritrophic population model to understand the defoliation of coniferous Larch trees. The q deformation technique has been used to examine the dynamics of different models, such as logistic maps [10,17], Gaussian maps [9,23], etc. ...
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Periodic outbreaks of the larch budmoth Zeiraphera diniana population (and the massive forest defoliation they engender) have been recorded in the Alps over the centuries and are known for their remarkable regularity. But these have been conspicuously absent since 1981. On the other hand, budmoth outbreaks have been historically unknown in the larches of the Carpathian Tatra mountains. To resolve this puzzle, we propose here a model which includes the influence of climate and explains both the 8-9 year periodicity in the budmoth cycle and the variations from this, as well as the absence of cycles. We successfully capture the observed trend of relative frequencies of outbreaks, reproducing the dominant periodicities seen. We contend that the apparent collapse of the cycle in 1981 is due to changing climatic conditions following a tipping point and propose the recurrence of the cycle with a changed periodicity of 40 years-the next outbreak could occur in 2021. Our model also predicts longer cycles.
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