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Increasing flooding hazard in coastal communities due to rising sea level: Case study of Miami Beach, Florida
Abstract
Sea level rise (SLR) imposes an increasing flooding hazard on low-lying coastal communities due to higher exposure to high-tide conditions and storm surge. Additional coastal flooding hazard arises due to reduced effectiveness of gravity-based drainage systems to drain rainwater during heavy rain events. Over the past decade, several coastal communities along the US Atlantic coast have experienced an increasing rate of flooding events. In this study, we focus on the increasing flooding hazard in Miami Beach, Florida, which has caused severe property damage and significant disruptions to daily life. We evaluate the flooding frequency and its causes by analyzing tide and rain gauge records, media reports, insurance claims, and photo records from Miami Beach acquired during 1998–2013. Our analysis indicates that significant changes in flooding frequency occurred after 2006, in which rain-induced events increased by 33% and tide-induced events increased by more than 400%. We also analyzed tide gauge records from Southeast Florida and detected a decadal-scale accelerating rates of SLR. The average pre-2006 rate is 3 ± 2 mm/yr, similar to the global long-term rate of SLR, whereas after 2006 the average rate of SLR in Southeast Florida rose to 9 ± 4 mm/yr. Our results suggest that engineering solutions to SLR should rely on regional SLR rate projections and not only on the commonly used global SLR projections.
... ed coastal vulnerability, particularly the role of SLR in extreme events, is therefore urgently needed. SLR along the East Coast and its time-evolving behaviors have been closely monitored and extensively studied. For example, using the long-term tide gauge data, Sallenger et al. (2012) reported a SLR hotspot on the Northeast Coast during 1950-2009. Wdowinski et al. (2016 analyzed the 1998-2013 tide gauge data at the Virginia Key, Florida, and detected a SLR acceleration after 2006. They found that the SLR acceleration correlated with the weakening of the Gulf Stream system and was responsible for the increased coastal flooding in Miami Beach. Finally, Little et al. (2021) found multidecadal epochs of en ...
... With the century-long tide gauge data and the more recent altimetry data, we focus on the rapid acceleration of SLR during 2010-2022 on the U.S. Southeast and Gulf Coasts (Wdowinski et al. 2016;Valle-Levinson et al. 2017;Domingues et al. 2018;Ezer 2019). This acceleration is characterized by a >10 mm/year decadal rise rate, multiple years with a 3 sea level departure from the long-term trend, and the sea level records being broken more frequently (Figs. 2 and 3). ...
Sea level rise (SLR) shows important spatiotemporal variability. A better understanding of characteristics and mechanisms of the variability is critical for future SLR projection and coastal preparedness. Here we analyze various observational and modeling data of sea level and its components, atmospheric pressure and winds, and ocean circulation in the North Atlantic. Both the century-long tide gauge data and the more recent altimetry data reveal a rapid decadal acceleration of SLR during 2010-2022 along the U.S. East Coast and the Gulf of Mexico coast. The acceleration is most notable on the Southeast and Gulf Coasts, as quantified by the decadal rise rate, extreme annual sea level departure from the long-term trend, as well as the sea level record-breaking frequency and magnitude. Our analysis suggests that this SLR acceleration is largely a lagged response to the observed slowdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in 2009-2010. In the North Atlantic, the response is characterized by a large-scale pattern of contrast changes in dynamic sea level between the eastern subpolar gyre and the U.S. Southeast and Gulf Coasts. The latest global climate model generally captures this observed pattern and projects that further increase in greenhouse-gas forcing will modify it over the 21 st century. The faster SLR on the Southeast and Gulf Coasts, at a rate of more than 10 mm/year during 2010-2022, coincided with active and even record-breaking North Atlantic hurricane seasons in recent years. As a consequence, the elevated storm surge exacerbated coastal flooding and damages particularly on the Gulf Coast.
... Several factors make coastal wetlands in the Greater Everglades particularly vulnerable to sea-level rise, including comparatively high rates of sea-level rise relative to wetland soil surfaces (Sweet et al. 2017), expansive low relief topography, anthropogenic barriers to migration (e.g., levees), and reduced freshwater delivery to the coast. Several studies suggest rates of relative sea-level rise in south Florida have accelerated considerably over the past one to two decades (Fox-Kemper et al. 2021;Park and Sweet 2015;Parkinson and Wdowinski 2022;Sweet et al. 2022;Wdowinski et al. 2016), with further increases expected to occur over the next century (Sweet et al. 2017). During the period between 2001 and 2019, recent rates of relative sea-level rise from local tide gauges ranged from 5.3 to 9.0 mm year −1 (Table S4), which is consistent with previous estimates reported by Park and Sweet (2015) (5.9-7.4 mm year −1 after 2003) and Wdowinski et al. (2016) (9.0 mm year −1 after 2006) for tide gauges in the vicinity of Miami. ...
... Several studies suggest rates of relative sea-level rise in south Florida have accelerated considerably over the past one to two decades (Fox-Kemper et al. 2021;Park and Sweet 2015;Parkinson and Wdowinski 2022;Sweet et al. 2022;Wdowinski et al. 2016), with further increases expected to occur over the next century (Sweet et al. 2017). During the period between 2001 and 2019, recent rates of relative sea-level rise from local tide gauges ranged from 5.3 to 9.0 mm year −1 (Table S4), which is consistent with previous estimates reported by Park and Sweet (2015) (5.9-7.4 mm year −1 after 2003) and Wdowinski et al. (2016) (9.0 mm year −1 after 2006) for tide gauges in the vicinity of Miami. Variation in recent rates of relative sea-level rise may be related to location-dependent differences in wind exposure, freshwater input, or precipitation between the local tide gauges that were used to calculate the site-specific relative SLR rates. ...
Coastal wetlands adapt to rising seas via feedbacks that build soil elevation, which lead to wetland stability. However, accelerated rates of sea-level rise can exceed soil elevation gain, leading to wetland instability and loss. Thus, there is a pressing need to better understand regional and landscape variability in rates of wetland soil elevation change. Here, we conducted a regional synthesis of surface elevation change data from mangrove forests and coastal marshes in the iconic Greater Everglades region of south Florida (USA). We integrated data from 51 sites in which a total of 122 surface elevation table-marker horizon (SET-MH) stations were installed. Several of these sites have been periodically monitored since the 1990s and are among the oldest SET-MH datasets in the world. Rates of surface elevation change ranged from −9.8 to 15.2 mm year−1, indicating some wetlands are keeping pace with sea-level rise while others are at risk of submergence and conversion to open water. Vertical accretion rates ranged from 0.6 to 12.9 mm year−1, and subsurface change rates ranged from −13.5 to 8.6 mm year−1. Rates of surface elevation change were positively related to subsurface change but not vertical accretion. There were no significant relationships between rates of surface elevation change and elevation (NAVD 88) or rates of sea-level rise. Site-specific examples indicate that hurricanes, plant productivity, hydrologic exchange, and proximity to sediment and nutrient inputs are critical but confounding drivers of surface elevation change dynamics in the Greater Everglades region. Collectively, our results reinforce the value of long-term SET-MH data that incorporate spatial variability for advancing understanding of surface elevation change dynamics in coastal wetlands.
... In this analysis, we estimate the impact that changes in FEMA flood zone designations have historically had on property values in the Miami-Dade County (MDC) housing market-a community whose potential economic losses due to climate change have been well-documented (Kulp and Strauss 2017;Wdowinski et al. 2016). Miami-Dade County is home to 2.7 million people (inhabiting over 1 million housing units), and it faces significant and increasing risk from tidal, storm surge, and pluvial flooding (e.g., Genovese et al. 2011;Wdowinski et al. 2016;Raimi et al. 2020), risks exacerbated by an increasing rate of sea level rise. ...
... In this analysis, we estimate the impact that changes in FEMA flood zone designations have historically had on property values in the Miami-Dade County (MDC) housing market-a community whose potential economic losses due to climate change have been well-documented (Kulp and Strauss 2017;Wdowinski et al. 2016). Miami-Dade County is home to 2.7 million people (inhabiting over 1 million housing units), and it faces significant and increasing risk from tidal, storm surge, and pluvial flooding (e.g., Genovese et al. 2011;Wdowinski et al. 2016;Raimi et al. 2020), risks exacerbated by an increasing rate of sea level rise. Research by Keenan et al. (2018) indicates that buyers in this region may be increasingly considering flood risk to properties when buying homes, given the observed increased importance of elevation and requests for elevations certificates in the home buying process. ...
In the United States, flood events are the most economically damaging type of natural disaster. Some of the most widely used tools for understanding property flood risk in the United States are the Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs) produced by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Numerous previous studies have attempted to estimate the impact on property valuation from a home’s being mapped into a Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA) within FIRMs. However, as these maps have widely served as the source of data about true flood risk, there have been limits on the ability of researchers to disentangle these zone designation impacts as due to actual flood risk or as due to perceived flood risk. New advancements in flood modeling have allowed for the prediction of high-quality property-level flood inundation, both now and in the future. By integrating these flood modeling advancements, true flood risk may be controlled for in models looking to explore the avenues by which property valuation impacts occur. To this end, this study builds on insights from recent research looking at the valuation of single-family residential properties in Miami-Dade County (MDC), which utilizes a high-resolution floodplain model to estimate the impact of actual property inundation on sales prices. By controlling for actual property flood risk, impacts of SFHA designations are estimated in MDC through implementation of a difference in difference model which utilizes the release of updated FIRMS in 2009 and the 217,222 transactions and 120,693 property designation changes which occurred within the dataset.
... These concerns are especially acute in South Florida (Koch et al., 2015;Obeysekera et al., 2015) as saltwater encroachment has been shown to decrease rootbiomass production, organic carbon storage, and rates of vertical sediment accumulation Servais et al., 2018;Wilson et al., 2018). Prior to this investigation, South Florida historical rates of SLR were reported as 2.4 mm yr − 1 at Key West (Maul and Martin, 2015) and ~ 4.5 mm yr − 1 at Virginia Key (pre-2006) (Wdowinski et al., 2016). More recently, the rate of SLR has been reported as 6.3 mm yr − 1 at Key West (2003West ( − 2012 (Breithaupt et al., 2017) and between 5.9 mm yr − 1 (2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015) and 9 mm yr − 1 (post 2006) at Virginia Key by Park and Sweet (2015) and Wdowinski et al. (2016), respectively. ...
... Prior to this investigation, South Florida historical rates of SLR were reported as 2.4 mm yr − 1 at Key West (Maul and Martin, 2015) and ~ 4.5 mm yr − 1 at Virginia Key (pre-2006) (Wdowinski et al., 2016). More recently, the rate of SLR has been reported as 6.3 mm yr − 1 at Key West (2003West ( − 2012 (Breithaupt et al., 2017) and between 5.9 mm yr − 1 (2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015) and 9 mm yr − 1 (post 2006) at Virginia Key by Park and Sweet (2015) and Wdowinski et al. (2016), respectively. The 6-9 mm yr − 1 rates of sea-level rise detected in south Florida since 2003 are significantly higher than the 3.2-3.7 mm yr − 1 global mean sea level rise rate calculated for the same time period (e.g., Masson-Delmotte et al., 2021). ...
Analysis of four South Florida tide gauges, with records ranging from 27 to 116 yrs., indicate the average rate of sea-level rise has accelerated from 3.9 mm yr⁻¹ (1900–2021) to 6.5 mm yr⁻¹ (2000−2021), and 9.4 mm yr⁻¹ over the past decade. Future rates are forecast to accelerate over the duration of this century. A predictive conceptual framework (model) was developed in which the resilience of South Florida mangrove plant communities is solely a function of the rate of sea-level rise and vertical sediment accumulation. The model was verified using historical (e.g., 1900–2021) and recent (e.g., 2000–2021) sediment accumulation rate data derived using three different methodological approaches. Results indicate by 2040–2050 South Florida mangrove plant communities, already subjected to the destabilizing effects of accelerating sea-level rise for decades, will begin a widespread conversion to estuarine conditions. This will initially trigger the formation and expansion of inundation ponds, as is already occurring in the study area. By the end of this century, most mangrove forested areas will be submerged. The loss of other coastal wetlands (e.g., brackish marsh) is also likely because their rates of sediment accumulation are lower than mangrove. The findings of this study are consistent with other resilience projections that have been conducted in South Florida and at the global scale. Several knowledge gaps were identified which must be filled to improve confidence in subsequent forecasts and the outcome of mitigation efforts undertaken to enhance resilience. These include the lack of (1) sediment accumulation data representative of transitional and freshwater wetlands, (2) a robust understanding of post-depositional processes (e.g., compaction) that can compromise resilience through shallow (~1 m) subsidence, and (3) recent sediment accumulation data necessary to determine how South Florida coastal wetlands have responded to a sustained acceleration in the rate of sea-level rise over the last decade.
... Older stormwater networks were designed to accommodate conditions at the time of their construction under the assumption that future conditions and variability would be similar to those in the past, but climate change has invalidated this assumption (Milly et al., 2008). Relative sea level rise in some coastal areas of the US has increased mean sea level by up to a foot since the 1960s (Eggleston & Pope, 2013;Zervas, 2009), so many coastal stormwater networks are increasingly inundated by typical high tide water levels (i.e., mean high water) or rising groundwater levels (Rotzoll & Fletcher, 2013;Sadler et al., 2020;Shen et al., 2019;Su et al., 2020;Wdowinski et al., 2016). Stormwater network inundation (also known as "tailwater condition") reduces how well the system drains during storm events (Shen et al., 2019;Wahl et al., 2015), and recurrent stormwater network inundation by saltwater also corrodes stormwater infrastructure (Bjerklie et al., 2012), promotes saltwater intrusion to groundwater (Su et al., 2020), and can mobilize fecal bacteria from co-located sanitary sewer lines (Su et al., 2020). ...
... Inundation of underground stormwater networks has been reported in multiple cities in the US (Hino et al., 2019;Sadler et al., 2020;Shen et al., 2019;Wdowinski et al., 2016), but a broad characterization of stormwater network inundation has not been conducted. Most research on coastal urban flooding focuses on compound flooding (i.e., elevated receiving water levels combined with precipitation), but most of these studies focus on small areas or specific extreme storm events to recreate real-world flooding conditions using hydrodynamic models (Gallien et al., 2014;Hasan Tanim & Goharian, 2020;Sadler et al., 2020;Shen et al., 2019). ...
Stormwater infrastructure can manage precipitation‐driven flooding when there are no obstructions to draining. Coastal areas increasingly experience recurrent flooding due to elevated water levels from storms or tides, but the inundation of coastal stormwater infrastructure by elevated water levels has not been broadly assessed. We conservatively estimated stormwater infrastructure inundation in municipalities along the Atlantic United States coast by using areas of high‐tide flooding (HTF) on roads as a proxy. We also modeled stormwater infrastructure inundation in four North Carolina municipalities and measured infrastructure inundation in one of the modeled municipalities. Combining methodologies at different scales provides context and allows the scope of stormwater infrastructure inundation to be broadly estimated. We found 137 census‐designated urban areas along the Atlantic coast with road area impacted by HTF, with a median percent of total road area subject to HTF of 0.16% (IQR: 0.02%–0.53%). Based on 2010 census block data, the median number of people per urban area that live in census blocks with HTF on roads was 1,622 (IQR: 366–5,779). In total, we estimate that over 2 million people live in census blocks where HTF occurs on roadways along the US Atlantic coast. Modeling results and water level measurements indicated that extensive inundation of underground stormwater infrastructure likely occurs at water levels within the mean tidal range. These results suggest that stormwater infrastructure inundation along the US Atlantic coast is likely widespread, affects a large number of people, occurs frequently, and increases the occurrence of urban flooding.
... In addition to the salinization of aquifers, coastal environments are susceptible to indirect flooding caused by groundwater rising in response to SLR (Rotzoll and Fletcher, 2013;Masterson et al., 2014). In climate change scenarios for this century, changes in rainfall patterns, such as intensification or increased storm frequency, may result in magnification of coastal flooding episodes (Wong et al., 2014;Wdowinski et al., 2016;Ballesteros et al., 2018). ...
... According to Rotzoll and Fletcher (2013), information of this nature is essential to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change on coastal areas associated with SLR. The sewage and drainage infrastructure planning can benefit from hydrological models that incorporate water table variations, as they will be the first to collapse in an SLR scenario followed by groundwater rising (Wdowinski et al., 2016). To this end, basic information on groundwater behavior needs to be acquired, processed and analyzed, but it is often not available as part of the monitoring network (such as weather and oceanographic, for example). ...
The water table is one of the primary components of the coastal hydrological system, being regulated by the precipitation input and action of meteo-oceanographic forcing. The monitoring of the water table amplitude is crucial in a permeable substrate, such as low-lying sandy coasts. In scenarios of sea-level rise (SLR), these environments will be impacted by the direct action of marine flooding and, indirectly, by the rising of the groundwater. In 2018, seasonal monitoring of the water table was carried out at Cassino beach, located on the south Brazilian coast. The Cassino beach is an exposed coast dominated by waves, inserted in a low elevation barrier (Holocene lagoon-barrier system), with a humid subtropical climate and the action of extratropical cyclogenesis. The objectives were to determine the water table variation throughout the year and to identify the main forces that act in the high-frequency fluctuations. The low-cost electronic sensor systems Arduino-based were installed in tubular wells for monitoring. In parallel, indirect surveys were performed using the GPR method. The results demonstrated the significant contribution of the infiltration and recharge pulses in the shallow freshwater lens. The contributions of energy waves and winds in the S quadrant were identified, promoting the stacking of water on the shore. The results also suggest a relationship between the water table depth and the morphology of ridges and swales. The projections performed with the groundwater level from SLR scenarios on the IPCC showed a higher susceptibility of the Cassino beach to direct and indirect floods for the second half of this century. The intensification and increase of the frequency of the storms caused by climate change may result in a situation of urban infrastructure collapse, with the progressive occurrence of compound flooding (rainfall and storm surge).
... These concerns are especially acute in South Florida (Koch et al., 2015;Obeysekera et al., 2015) as saltwater encroachment has been shown to decrease rootbiomass production, organic carbon storage, and rates of vertical sediment accumulation Servais et al., 2018;Wilson et al., 2018). Prior to this investigation, South Florida historical rates of SLR were reported as 2.4 mm yr − 1 at Key West (Maul and Martin, 2015) and ~ 4.5 mm yr − 1 at Virginia Key (pre-2006) (Wdowinski et al., 2016). More recently, the rate of SLR has been reported as 6.3 mm yr − 1 at Key West (2003West ( − 2012 (Breithaupt et al., 2017) and between 5.9 mm yr − 1 (2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015) and 9 mm yr − 1 (post 2006) at Virginia Key by Park and Sweet (2015) and Wdowinski et al. (2016), respectively. ...
... Prior to this investigation, South Florida historical rates of SLR were reported as 2.4 mm yr − 1 at Key West (Maul and Martin, 2015) and ~ 4.5 mm yr − 1 at Virginia Key (pre-2006) (Wdowinski et al., 2016). More recently, the rate of SLR has been reported as 6.3 mm yr − 1 at Key West (2003West ( − 2012 (Breithaupt et al., 2017) and between 5.9 mm yr − 1 (2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015) and 9 mm yr − 1 (post 2006) at Virginia Key by Park and Sweet (2015) and Wdowinski et al. (2016), respectively. The 6-9 mm yr − 1 rates of sea-level rise detected in south Florida since 2003 are significantly higher than the 3.2-3.7 mm yr − 1 global mean sea level rise rate calculated for the same time period (e.g., Masson-Delmotte et al., 2021). ...
... However, the window of opportunity for meaningful mitigation actions to avert adverse global effects is rapidly closing, and climate change is likely to increase the frequency and severity of the impacts [10]. Coastal regions are particularly susceptible to the effects of climate change [11][12][13][14][15][16][17]. Thus, adaptation or adaptive responses to climate change are considered a more immediate and helpful way of action under time and regional urgencies. ...
... of sea level rise has been attributed to different processes, such as longshore wind forcing [22][23][24] , atmospheric pressure loading 25 , vertical land motions 26 , weakening of the Gulf Stream [27][28][29][30][31][32] , warming of the Gulf Stream and the entire subtropical gyre 15,33 , the combined influence of external forcing and internal climate variability 34 , and slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) [35][36][37][38] . ...
The system of oceanic flows constituting the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) moves heat and other properties to the subpolar North
Atlantic, controlling regional climate, weather, sea levels, and ecosystems. Climate models suggest a potential AMOC slowdown towards the end of this century due to anthropogenic forcing, accelerating coastal sea level rise along the western boundary and dramatically increasing flood risk. While direct observations of the AMOC are still too short to infer long-term trends, we show here that the AMOC-induced changes in gyre-scale heat content, super- imposed on the global mean sea level rise, are already influencing the fre- quency of floods along the United States southeastern seaboard. We find that ocean heat convergence, being the primary driver for interannual sea level changes in the subtropical North Atlantic, has led to an exceptional gyre-scale warming and associated dynamic sea level rise since 2010, accounting for 30- 50% of flood days in 2015-2020.
... Tidal floods are also known as inundation floods (Salim, 2018). Tidal flood events can occur when the sea level reaches a certain threshold (Wdowinski et al., 2016). Tidal floods inundate coastal plains or places lower than the high tide sea level (high water level) (Karana & Suprihardjo, 2013). ...
This study aims to 1) identify the social vulnerability of tidal floods in Medan Belawan District and 2) produce a zoning map of social vulnerability to tidal floods in Medan Belawan District descriptive quantitative type research. The variable used refers to Regulation of the Head of BNPB No. 2 of 2012 with changes covering population density, sex ratio, ratio of persons with disabilities, land use, and existing tidal flooding. The social vulnerability variable is then classified using a scoring technique. Data collection techniques in this study were document studies of secondary data obtained from various agencies. The results showed that five urban villages (83%) in Medan Belawan District had high tidal flood social vulnerability, and only one urban town (17%) was classified as having moderate social vulnerability. The urban villages with high tidal flood social vulnerability are Bagan Deli urban village, Belawan Bahagia urban village, Belawan Bahari urban village, Belawan I urban village, and Belawan II urban village. Meanwhile, the urban village with a moderate level of social vulnerability to tidal floods is the Belawan Sicanang Village. Belawan I Village occupies the highest tidal flood social vulnerability class, and the lowest tidal flood social vulnerability class is populated by Belawan Sicanang urban village.Keywords: Social Vulnerability, Tidal Flood, Disaster
... last access: 12 November 2021). An uncertainty estimate of the trends was also provided using the downsampling method (Chen et al., 2017;Wu et al., 2011;Wdowinski et al., 2016). For each temperature time series, a monthly temperature is randomly picked for each calendar year, forming a new time series. ...
Sea surface temperature observations have shown that western boundary currents, such as the East Australian Current (EAC), are warming faster than the global average. However, we know little about coastal temperature trends inshore of these rapidly warming regions, particularly below the surface. In addition to this, warming rates are typically estimated linearly, making it difficult to know how these rates have changed over time. Here we use long-term in situ temperature observations through the water column at five coastal sites between approximately 27.3–42.6∘ S to estimate warming trends between the ocean surface and the bottom. Using an advanced trend detection method, we find accelerating warming trends at multiple depths in the EAC extension region at 34.1 and 42.6∘ S. We see accelerating trends at the surface and bottom at 34.1∘ S but similar trends in the top 20 m at 42.6∘ S. We compare several methods, estimate uncertainty, and place our results in the context of previously reported trends, highlighting that magnitudes are depth-dependent, vary across latitude, and are sensitive to the data time period chosen. The spatial and temporal variability in the long-term temperature trends highlight the important role of regional dynamics against a background of broad-scale ocean warming. Moreover, considering that recent studies of ocean warming typically focus on surface data only, our results show the necessity of subsurface data for the improved understanding of regional climate change impacts.
... Coastal communities tend to perceive climate change and see it as a threat to their permanence and local survival given its occurrence [21][22][23][24]. The Marine Extractive Reserve of Soure (Resexmar Soure) is a traditional coastal community located in the eastern Amazon [25]. ...
Climate changes have become undisputed, as have their consequences for global ecosystems and mankind. The coastal areas are among the most affected areas on the planet due to their geographical location. The effects suffered by coastal areas can render the residing populations homeless, as well as compromise the continuity of the history and culture of these environments. The Marine Extractive Reserve of the city of Soure (coastal area of eastern Amazonia) stands out for housing populations that have developed an intimate relationship with nature and have knowledge that can explain people's perception of climate changes. In this context, this study investigated how local residents perceive climate change and its consequences considering different temporal and spatial scales. To this end, questionnaires were developed and applied using a 5-point Likert scale. Our results indicate that perception is shaped by socioeconomic and demographic factors, and that they are perceived on different time scales and geographic space. These findings reflect the awareness-raising efforts of the management body of this Conservation Unit and the local knowledge, derived from the relationship of the residents with the natural environment, which, together, provided the population with assertive information that favor a better understanding of this phenomenon.
... Floods have always posed a serious threat to human survival and development as a natural disaster. The frequency and damage caused by floods are increasing due to climate change and socio-economic development (Diakakis, 2014;Wdowinski et al., 2016;Khayyam, 2020;Zhang et al., 2021;Wang et al., 2022). The process of flooding is complex, and accurate flood forecasting is a key challenge in hydrology (Ranit and Durge, 2018, Jain et al., 2018, Zahura and Goodall, 2022. ...
Study region: Typical basin in semi-arid and semi humid areas in the middle reaches of the Yellow River Study focus: Floods are among the most devastating natural disasters. Timely and accurate forecasting of runoff is crucial to safeguard human lives, minimize property damage, enhance the efficiency of reservoir power generation, and ensure the safety of water supply. In this study, the rainfall and flow data of 98 floods occurring between 1971 and 2014 in the Jingle sub-basin, a tributary of the Yellow River basin, China, were analyzed using dynamic clustering and random forest techniques to identify flood types and select appropriate model parameters. The Xin'an-jiang model was then used for real-time flood forecasting. The results indicate that the rainfall characteristic indicators developed by the model can effectively identify potential flood types, and the model parameters determined by historical flood rates can be adapted and utilized for new forecasting tasks based on similarities. Ensemble forecasting results, which consider the probability of flood types, are superior to single fractal forecasting outcomes and diminish uncertainty. The proposed method can identify extreme flood events, facilitate flood classification and prediction, promote basin disaster mitigation, and enable the efficient use of water resources. New hydrological insights for the region: The proposed flood classification and identification method effectively analyzes flood events in the basin. The floods that may occur are characterized by relevant statistical characteristics of rainfall, allowing for selection of corresponding flood forecasting model parameters for improved accuracy in real-time flood forecasting and extended prediction period.
... Even a small increase in sea level would inundate and flood thousands of acres of highly developed coastal communities. Significant environmental changes, severe property damages, and widespread disruptions in economic development (e.g., tourism, agriculture, and transportation) are expected (Wdowinski et al., 2016). Without comprehensive climate actions, the effects of climate change will only exacerbate, aggravating the threats of SLR. ...
A growing body of evidence suggests that the global sea level has been increasing at an accelerating rate. This trend, which is linked to global warming, poses a significant threat to the communities living in low elevation coastal areas. This study aims to investigate public preferences and estimate the economic value of sea-level rise (SLR) adaptation projects in Florida. We compute the households’ willingness to pay (WTP) for different attributes of SLR adaptation programs using a series of choice experiments embedded within a household survey of selected communities in Florida. We find strong spatially heterogeneous preferences in both the short-term and long-term adaptation plans. Moreover, Florida’s seasonal residents are willing to pay more than yearlong residents due to their higher risk perceptions and higher income levels. There are few studies in the present literature that compare adaptation preferences across this demographic gradient. Thus, the empirical findings can contribute significantly to the design of optimal adaptation programs and policies to tackle the sea-level rise caused by climate change.
... The coastal zone in the southern portion of this region (Florida) is highly developed, whereas the north section represents a more mixed land usage (Titus et al. 2009). Low lying vulnerable infrastructure is ubiquitous along the coast (e.g., Armstrong and Lazarus 2019;Bin et al. 2011;Wdowinski et al. 2018;Ezer and Atkinson 2014), and approximately 14 million residents live in the coastal counties spanning the study region (US Census 2021). ...
A 38-year hindcast water-level product is developed for the US Southeast Atlantic coastline from the entrance of Chesapeake Bay to the southeast tip of Florida. The water-level modeling framework utilized in this study combines a global-scale hydrodynamic model (Global Tide and Surge Model, GTSM-ERA5), a novel ensemble-based tide model, a parameterized wave setup model, and statistical corrections applied to improve modeled water-level components. Corrected water-level data are found to be skillful, with an RMSE of 13 cm, when compared to observed water-level measurement at tide gauge locations. The largest errors in the hindcast are location-based and typically found in the tidal component of the model. Extreme water levels across the region are driven by compound events, in this case referring to combined surge, tide, and wave forcing. However, the relative importance of water-level components varies spatially, such that tides are found to be more important in the center of the study region, non-tidal residual water levels to the north, and wave setup in the north and south. Hurricanes drive the most extreme water-level events within the study area, but non-hurricane events define the low to mid-level recurrence interval water-level events. This study presents a robust analysis of the complex oceanographic factors that drive coastal flood events. This dataset will support a variety of critical coastal research goals including research related to coastal hazards, landscape change, and community risk assessments.
... The coastal zone in the southern portion of this region (Florida) is highly developed whereas the north section represents a more mixed land usage (Titus et al., 2009). Low lying 115 vulnerable infrastructure is ubiquitous along the coast (e.g., Armstrong and Lazarus, 2019;Bin et al., 2011;Wdowinski et al., 2018;Ezer and Atkinson, 2014), and approximately 14 million residents live in the coastal counties spanning the study region (US Census, 2021). ...
A 38-year hindcast water level product is developed for the United States Southeast Atlantic coastline from the entrance of Chesapeake Bay to the southeast tip of Florida. The water level modelling framework utilized in this study combines a global-scale hydrodynamic model (Global Tide and Surge Model, GTSM-ERA5), a novel ensemble-based tide model, a parameterized wave setup model, and statistical corrections applied to improve modelled water level components. Corrected water level data are found to be skillful, with an RMSE of 13 cm, when compared to observed water level measurement at tide gauge locations. The largest errors in the hindcast are location-based and typically found in the tidal component of the model. Extreme water levels across the region are driven by compound events, in this case referring to combined surge, tide, and wave forcing. However, the relative importance of water level components varies spatially, such that tides are found to be more important in the center of the study region, non-tidal residual water levels to the north, and wave setup in the north and south. Hurricanes drive the most extreme water level events within the study area, but non-hurricane events define the low to mid-level recurrence interval water level events. This study presents a robust analysis of the complex oceanographic factors that drive coastal flood events. This dataset will support a variety of critical coastal research goals including research related to coastal hazards, landscape change, and community risk assessments.
... Dynamic changes in the strength, orientation, or temperature of the on-and off-platform water masses are expected to shift the location and intensity of whitings formation through time. For GBB, such changes may be autogenic (per , else allogenic, including variations in the strength and position of the Gulf Stream (McCarthy et al. 2012;Sallenger et al. 2012;Ezer et al. 2013;Smeed et al. 2014;Wdowinski et al. 2016;Caesar et al. 2018;Ezer 2019) FIG. 11.-A) Map of the average degree of aragonite saturation (X arag ) on Great Bahama Bank (GBB) for the months of Jan and Feb 2016. ...
Whitings, or occurrences of fine-grained carbonate in the water column, have been observed in modern environments with salinities ranging from fresh to marine conditions, and thick deposits of lime mud are described throughout the geological record. Despite their ubiquity, the trigger for whitings has been debated for more than eighty years. Satellite data reveal that most whitings are restricted to the northwestern part of Great Bahama Bank (GBB) which occupies < 10% of the platform area. Even here, whitings are further focused. More than 35% of them occur in a zone which occupies just 1% of the platform. We propose a three-step process for the existence of this zone of peak whitings and why the whitings in it are both more frequent and larger in winter than summer. First, the temperature differential between on- and off-platform waters is highest in the winter, setting up a disparity between dissolved CO2 concentrations in the two water masses. Second, hydrodynamic mixing of these two water masses increases the degree of aragonite saturation of the platform-top waters, as colder on-platform waters with theoretically higher concentrations of dissolved gases are warmed via mixing with the warmer off-platform waters. Finally, spatial heterogeneity in the degree of aragonite saturation is higher in the winter, and the zone of peak whitings is situated in an area of locally enhanced saturation state. Hydrodynamic simulation suggests that the whitings zone is located by tidal inflow of off-platform waters across the western margin of GBB, as well as inflow from the Tongue of the Ocean to the north of Andros Island. Despite thermodynamic forcing mechanisms that predict higher frequency of whitings in the summer, the environmental, hydrodynamic, geochemical, and kinetic conditions in the whitings zone appear to support the Goldilocks configuration that enhances the formation of wintertime whitings on Great Bahama Bank. This phenomenon has implications for the interpretation of whitings mud in the geological record, including the geochemical signatures within it.
... The position of the tide gauge also may not well capture freshwater contributions (i.e., associated with precipitation, runoff, and flow from rivers or canals). Hydrologic forcing can lead to flooding on its own or contribute to existing tidal flooding (Wdowinski et al., 2016;Sukop et al., 2018). In addition, existing flood thresholds may not best reflect similar levels of impact everywhere. ...
Sea level rise is increasing the frequency of high tide flooding in coastal communities across the United States. Although the occurrence and severity of high-tide flooding will continue to increase, skillful prediction of high tide flooding on monthly-to-annual time horizons is lacking in most regions. Here, we present an approach to predict the daily likelihood of high tide flooding at coastal locations throughout the U.S. using a novel probabilistic modeling approach that relies on relative sea-level rise, tide predictions, and climatological non-tidal residuals as measured by NOAA tide gauges. The structure of the model will also enable future incorporation of mean sea level anomaly predictions from numerical, statistical, and machine learning forecast systems. A retrospective skill assessment using the climatological sea level information indicates that this approach is skillful at 61 out of 92 NOAA tide gauges where at least 10 high tide flood days occurred from 1997–2019. In this case, a flood day occurs when the observed water level exceeds the gauge-specific high tide flood threshold. For these 61 gauges, on average 35% of all floods are accurately predicted using this model, with over half of the floods accurately predicted at 18 gauges. The corresponding False-Alarm-Rate is less than 10% for all 61 gauges. Including mean sea level anomaly persistence at leads of 1 and 3 months further improves model skill in many locations, especially the U.S. Pacific Islands and West Coast. Model skill is shown to increase substantially with increasing sea level at nearly all locations as high tides more frequently exceed the high tide flooding threshold. Assuming an intermediate amount of relative sea level rise, the model will likely be skillful at 93 out of the 94 gauges projected to have regular flooding by 2040. These results demonstrate that this approach is viable to be incorporated into NOAA decision-support products to provide guidance on likely high tide flooding days. Further, the structure of the model will enable future incorporation of mean sea level anomaly predictions from numerical, statistical, and machine learning forecast systems.
... The study site is underlaid by the surficial limestone of the Biscayne Aquifer -among the most permeable in the worldwhich allows for rapid infiltration and recharge processes (Parker and Cooke, 1944;Parker, 1951), initiating in the Everglades the laterally-dominated flow system moving throughout MDC to discharge in the Biscayne Bay (Cunningham and Florea, 2009;Price et al., 2020). South Florida's low-lying geomorphology and karst terrain face complex environmental and engineering challenges posed by rising water tables and sea level rise (Czajkowski et al., 2018;Sukop et al., 2018;Sweet et al., 2016;Wdowinski et al., 2016). ...
Miami-Dade County is vulnerable to flash, pluvial, fluvial, coastal and groundwater flooding due to its low-elevation karst morphology. Despite considerable advances in understanding the impact of compound flooding events by considering major flood drivers (precipitation, river discharge, and coastal surge), little is known regarding the severity of groundwater hazards in this region. This study links a multivariate statistical analysis with a coupled physically-based 2D hydraulic model to estimate the flood hazard in the Arch Creek Basin located in North Miami. A bivariate copula analysis was used to capture the joint probability of key flood drivers with predefined water table thresholds to set-up the flood modeling conditions. Results demonstrate the high vulnerability to extreme precipitation events compared to coastal surge in the study area. Similarly, groundwater flooding is relevant in shallow water table environments, as it influences the severity of flood hazards in terms of flood inundation depth, extent, and damage to the built environment. This research demonstrates that groundwater flooding is a latent risk that should be incorporated in flood hazard mapping in regions susceptible to high water tables and sea level rise.
... Saltwater intrusion is a major threat to coastal freshwater wetlands globally. The Everglades has historically been particularly vulnerable to saltwater intrusion due to declines in seasonal freshwater delivery (McIvor et al., 1994;Odum et al., 1995;Sklar and van der Valk, 2002), a naturally low topographic incline (Ross et al., 2000), and increasing rates of sea-level rise (Dessu et al., 2018;Wdowinski et al., 2016). Furthermore, an accelerating soil elevation loss has been observed in FCE, which is thought to be linked to microbial activities and loss in fine root biomass in association with saltwater intrusions (Chambers et al., 2014;Charles et al., 2019;Wilson et al., 2018). ...
Global sea-level rise is transforming coastal ecosystems, especially freshwater wetlands, in part due to increased episodic or chronic saltwater exposure, leading to shifts in biogeochemistry, plant- and microbial communities, as well as ecological services. Yet, it is still difficult to predict how soil microbial communities respond to the saltwater exposure because of poorly understood microbial sensitivity within complex wetland soil microbial communities, as well as the high spatial and temporal heterogeneity of wetland soils and saltwater exposure. To address this, we first conducted a two-year survey of microbial community structure and bottom water chemistry in submerged surface soils from 14 wetland sites across the Florida Everglades. We identified ecosystem-specific microbial biomarker taxa primarily associated with variation in salinity. Bacterial, archaeal and fungal community composition differed between freshwater, mangrove, and marine seagrass meadow sites, irrespective of soil type or season. Especially, methanogens, putative denitrifying methanotrophs and sulfate reducers shifted in relative abundance and/or composition between wetland types. Methanogens and putative denitrifying methanotrophs declined in relative abundance from freshwater to marine wetlands, whereas sulfate reducers showed the opposite trend. A four-year experimental simulation of saltwater intrusion in a pristine freshwater site and a previously saltwater-impacted site corroborated the highest sensitivity and relative increase of sulfate reducers, as well as taxon-specific sensitivity of methanogens, in response to continuously pulsing of saltwater treatment. Collectively, these results suggest that besides increased salinity, saltwater-mediated increased sulfate availability leads to displacement of methanogens by sulfate reducers even at low or temporal salt exposure. These changes of microbial composition could affect organic matter degradation pathways in coastal freshwater wetlands exposed to sea-level rise, with potential consequences, such as loss of stored soil organic carbon.
... Due to climate change, the future occurrence of hurricanes cannot be predicted with a reasonable level of confidence. Sea Level Rise has a direct correlation with the frequency and intensity of hurricanes (Marsooli et al., 2019;Wdowinski et al., 2016). Hence, three future SLR scenarios are considered for assessment. ...
To enable systems to adapt to changing future conditions, ensuring adaptive capacity in resilience planning is critical. This paper presents an approach to evaluate the long-term benefits of adaptive resilience in infrastructure systems under future uncertainty. The methodology uses long timeframe assessment methods based on NPV and approaches to quantifying different levels of uncertainty along with multi-criteria assessment methods. The approach is demonstrated using three case studies, where investments have focused on different aspects of adaptive resilience in various infrastructure systems. The results demonstrate the increasing benefits of adaptive strategies over time with ongoing learning and the evolving nature of resilience needs. The presented approach can be used by decision-makers in multiple infrastructure sectors. A flexible approach to evaluate the long-term benefits of building adaptive capacity to enhance resilience, this methodology can be a useful tool for practitioners and policymakers to present a business case for long-term adaptive resilience investments..
... Marls with the lowest SOC density demonstrate the lowest accumulation rates (0.8 mm/yr) and mangrove peats the highest (3.3 mm/yr) (Callaway et al., 1997;Smoak et al., 2013;Breithaupt et al., 2014). The SESE mangrove SAR is higher than the global average of 2.7 mm/yr (Alongi, 2012) but all SARs lag behind the 3.6 mm/yr global rate of SLR (Oppenheimer et al., 2019) and further behind the regional rate of 9.1 mm/yr (Wdowinski et al., 2016). This deficit establishes that submergence of the biogenic SESE will occur in the near future (Parkinson and Wdowinski, 2022). ...
Numerous studies address changes in wetland deposition in response to saltwater encroachment driven by the accelerating rate of sea-level rise, by quantifying temporal changes recovered from a vertical sediment sequence. This is the first landscape scale study, based upon 10 core transects representing the heterogeneity of the Southeast Saline Everglades, Florida. By utilizing the known salinity preferences of molluscan assemblages, a Salinity Index was calculated for each core sequence and the recorded salinity changes identified and dated. Radiometric dating utilizing the ²¹⁰ Pb method provides the rate of sediment accumulation and the date of changes identified in the core. The core transects provide the basis for calculation of the rate of saltwater encroachment by comparing the date of saltwater encroachment and the distance between two cores. Thereby, temporal and spatial changes in other sediment parameters in a landscape can also be quantified, such as organic carbon. This paleo-ecological approach to rapidly changing coastal conditions can be utilized to provide scientists and land managers with a record of the past, rate of changing conditions and provide the basis for predicting the future trajectory of their site. Application of this paleo-ecological approach documented increasing rates of saltwater encroachment associated with accelerating rate of sea-level rise: an average rate of 49.1 between 1895 and 1940, 69.2 between 1940 and 1968, 73 between 1968 and 1995 and 131.1 m/yr between 1995 and 2015. Approximately 1.79 km of saltwater encroachment has occurred since 1995, with three partial reversals because of increased freshwater delivery. Associated with saltwater encroachment are changes in sediment organic carbon, decreasing area of marl production and increasing distribution of mangrove. Although the distance of saltwater encroachment is greater in Florida Bay, both changes in sediment organic carbon and mangrove distribution are much less than in Biscayne Bay coastal basins. This heterogeneity is likely the result of differences in tidal ingress efficiency. At the present rate of saltwater encroachment, the freshwater wetlands are predictably lost within a century.
... Strong winds, storm surge, and flooding can cause extensive damage to mangroves by stripping leaves and snapping or uprooting trees. The frequency and intensity of hurricanes that hit south Florida, combined with accelerated rates of sea level rise in the region (Wdowinski et al., 2016) and rapid coastal urban expansion (Rifat and Liu, 2019) make it a unique location to study the direct and indirect impacts of storms on mangrove forest structure and function and environmental attributes. ...
Hurricane Irma caused significant damages to mangrove forested wetlands in south Florida, including defoliation, tree snapping, and uprooting. Previous studies have used optical satellite imagery to estimate large-scale forest disturbance and resilience patterns. However, satellite images alone cannot provide measurements of vertical mangrove structure. In this study, we used dense point cloud data collected by NASA Goddard’s LiDAR, Hyperspectral, and Thermal (G-LiHT) airborne imager before (March 2017) and after (December 2017 and March 2020) Hurricane Irma to quantify the recovery, or lack thereof, of the three-dimensional (3D) mangrove forest structure. Recent resilience and vulnerability models developed from Landsat time series following the storm were used to group the lidar data into distinct disturbance-recovery classes. We then analyzed lidar-based forest canopy within each of the recovery classes to test a suite of forest structural characteristics. Our results indicate that 77.0 % of the survey area experienced canopy height loss three months after Hurricane Irma, whereby the majority of canopy height loss occurred in areas with the tallest mangrove forests (i.e., 15–25 m tall). Our analysis shows that the mangrove canopy height in South Florida increased by an average 0.26 m from December 2017 to March 2020, with most of the forest (84.7 % of the survey area) experiencing canopy height regrowth. However, only 38.1 % of the survey area has recovered to pre-storm canopy height. The distribution of canopy height was significantly altered by Hurricane Irma in the low and intermediate resilience classes, but were not significantly different 2.5 years later. Indeed, in areas of low resilience, little to no vertical change has occurred suggesting the absence of canopy regrowth and natural regeneration. Conversely, mangroves in high resilience class, which are dominated by shorter canopies (
... Since sea level is expected to rise for decades to come, the frequency and severity of floods will continue to accelerate, especially along the U.S. coasts where local SLR is higher than global SLR (Ezer & Atkinson, 2014;Kruel, 2016;Sweet et al., , 2017Sweet et al., , 2018Sweet et al., , 2022Wdowinski et al., 2016). Due to SLR, damage from storm surges and tidal flooding had increased in the past and will continue to increase in the coming decades (Buchanan et al., 2017;Cazenave & Le Cozannet, 2014;Nicholls & Cazenave, 2010;Taherkhani et al., 2020). ...
Many coastal cities around the world are at risk of increased flooding due to sea level rise (SLR), so here a simple flood prediction method is demonstrated for one city at risk, Norfolk, VA, on the U.S. East Coast. The probability of future flooding is estimated by extending observed hourly water level for 1927–2021 into hourly estimates until 2100. Unlike most other flood prediction methods, the approach here does not use any predetermined probability distribution function of extreme events, and instead a random sampling of past data represents tides and storm surges. The probability of flooding for 3 different flood levels and 3 different SLR projections are calculated, and the results are consistent with more sophisticated methods. Under intermediate‐low SLR projection an empirical formula is found to estimate the lower bound of flooding time, showing that water level that exceeds the high tide (Mean Higher High Water, MHHW) occurred ∼0.3% of the time in the 1960s, increased to ∼6% in 2021, and projected to occur 100% of the time by ∼2080. Under intermediate SLR projection, 1000 simulations of the probability of maximum annual water level were conducted, showing that storm surges may reach ∼2 m over MHHW by 2050 and ∼3 m over MHHW by 2100; in comparison, storm surges in Norfolk over the past 90 years reached 1.6 m only once. The method derived here could be adopted to other locations and help planning mitigations and adaptation strategies for cities at risk.
... The city of Miami, located on the northwestern side of the bay (Figure 2), is particularly prone to being flooded, with 90% of the municipality less than 6 m above mean sea level (MSL) (Weiss et al., 2011). SLR rates are accelerating (Domingues et al., 2018;Valle-Levinson et al., 2017), and this contributes to the increasing number of floods in the area (Wdowinski et al., 2016). Miami is already experiencing frequent tidal flooding (Hauer et al., 2021), and is also characterized by local subsidence that contributes to increased flooding hazard (Fiaschi & Wdowinski, 2020). ...
Little is known about the effect of tidal changes on minor flooding in most lagoonal estuaries, often due to a paucity of historical records that predate landscape changes. In this contribution, we recover and apply archival tidal range data to show that the mean tidal range in Miami, Florida, has almost doubled since 1900, from 0.32 to 0.61 m today. A likely cause is the dredging of a ∼15 m deep, 150 m wide harbor entrance channel beginning in the early 20th century, which changed northern Biscayne Bay from a choked inlet system to one with a tidal range close to coastal conditions. To investigate the implications for high‐tide flooding, we develop and validate a tidal‐inference based methodology that leverages estimates of pre‐1900 tidal range to obtain historical tidal predictions and constituents. Next, water level predictions that represent historical and modern water level variations are projected forward in time using different sea level rise scenarios. Results show that the historical increase in tidal range hastened the occurrence of present‐day flooding, and that the total integrated number of days with high‐tide floods in the 2020–2100 period will be approximately O(10³) more under present day tides compared to pre‐development conditions. These results suggest that tidal change may be a previously under‐appreciated factor in the increasing prevalence of high‐tide flooding in lagoonal estuaries, and our methods open the door to improving our understanding of other heavily‐altered systems.
... Studies insights that on average there is rise in sea level about 3.7 mm/yr from 2006 to 2018 [6]. Unexpected floods have been recorded in several regions because of the rising levels in water resources [7,8]. ...
Climate change has caused uncertainty in the hydrological pattern including weather change, precipitation fluctuations, and extreme temperature, thus triggering unforeseen natural tragedies such as hurricanes, flash flooding, heatwave and more. Because of these unanticipated events occurring all around the globe, the study of the influence of climate change on the alteration of flooding patterns has gained a lot of attention. This research study intends to provide an insight into how the future projected streamflow will affect the flooding-inundation extent by comparing the change in floodplain using both historical and future simulated scenarios. For the future projected data, the climate model Atmosphere/Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM) developed by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) is used, which illustrates that the flood is increasing in considering climate models. Furthermore, a comparison of the existing flood inundation map by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) study with the map generated by future projected streamflow data presents the entire inundation area in flood maps, implying the expansion area compared to FEMA needs to be considered in making emergency response plans. The effect of flooding in the inundation area from historical to future flow values, presented mathematically by a calculation of inundation extent percentage, infers that the considered watershed of Rock River is a flood-prone area. The goal is to provide insights on the importance of using the forecasted data for flood analysis and to offer the necessary background needed to strategize an emergency response plan for flood management.
... Communities, as well as economic and environmental sectors in low elevation and highly populated areas of Miami-Dade County are increasingly exposed and vulnerable to both minor and extreme coastal flooding due to SLR(Genovese et al. 2011;Spanger-Siegfried et al. 2017).To date, evaluation of SLR impacts in Miami-Dade County has mostly emphasized extreme flooding driven by hurricanes and tropical cyclones (i.e., storm surge)(Genovese et al. 2011; Klima et al. 2012;Genovese and Green 2015). However, only a few studies have investigated the effects of SLR on chronic risk from minor flooding(Wdowinski et al. 2016;Moftakhari et al. 2017a). Recurrent minor flooding is already emerging as a new issue in some parts of the county (e.g., the City of Miami Beach). ...
... Therefore, if the productivity growth profile could be maintained (green line in Figure 6), the accumulating peat would maintain a stable accumulation rate by keeping pace (elevation change ≈ inundation rate) with the increasing level of inundation as the relative inundation/ ponding rate approaches $0 mm year À1 . However, under field conditions, the simulated optimization scenario could differ as a recent estimate suggests up to 9 mm year À1 of SLR in southeast Florida (Wdowinski et al., 2016). ...
Coastal wetlands are globally important stores of carbon (C). However, accelerated sea‐level rise (SLR), increased saltwater intrusion, and modified freshwater discharge can contribute to the collapse of peat marsh – converting coastal peatlands into open water. Applying results from multiple experiments from sawgrass (Cladium jamaicense)‐dominated freshwater and brackish water marshes in the Florida Coastal Everglades, we developed a system‐level mechanistic peat elevation model (EvPEM). We applied the model to simulate net ecosystem C balance (NECB) and peat elevation in response to elevated salinity under inundation and drought exposure. Using a mass C balance approach, we estimated net gain in C and corresponding export of aquatic fluxes (FAQ) in the freshwater marsh under ambient condition (NECB = 1119 ± 229 gC m‐2 yr‐1; FAQ = 317 ± 186 gC m‐2 yr‐1). In contrast, brackish water marsh exhibited a substantial peat loss and aquatic C export with ambient (NECB = ‐366 ± 15 gC m‐2 yr‐1; FAQ = 311 ± 30 gC m‐2 yr‐1) and elevated salinity (NECB = ‐594 ± 94 gC m‐2 yr‐1; FAQ = 729 ± 142 gC m‐2 yr‐1) under extended exposed conditions. Further, mass balance suggests a considerable decline in soil C and corresponding elevation loss with elevated salinity and seasonal dry‐down. Applying EvPEM, we developed critical marsh net primary productivity (NPP) thresholds as a function of salinity to simulate accumulating, steady, and collapsing peat elevations. The optimization showed that approximately 150‐1070 gC m‐2 yr‐1 NPP could support a stable peat elevation (elevation change ~ SLR) with corresponding salinity ranging from 1 to 20 ppt under increasing inundation levels. The C budgeting and modeling illustrate the impacts of saltwater intrusion, inundation, seasonal dry down, and reduce uncertainties in understanding the fate of coastal peat wetlands with SLR and freshwater restoration. The modeling results provide management targets for hydrologic restoration based on the ecological conditions needed to reduce the vulnerability of Everglades peat marshes to collapse. The approach can be extended to other coastal peatlands to quantify C loss and improve understanding of the influence of the biological controls on wetland C storage changes for coastal management.
... Global eustatic sea-level rise (SLR) is currently 3.6 mm year − 1 leading to many coastal ecosystems being exposed to saltwater intrusion and prolonged tidal inundation (Oppenheimer et al. 2019) resulting in the salinization of brackish and freshwater wetlands. In south Florida, the local rate of SLR can be much more variable depending on location and timeframe ranging from 2.4 to 5.9 mm yr − 1 (Wdowinski et al. 2016;Breithaupt et al. 2017;Meeder et al. 2021). Coastal ecosystems have a natural feedback mechanism that allows them to adapt to SLR through the building of organic matter (Chambers et al. 2014;Breithaupt et al. 2017). ...
Long-term ecological research is revealing a strong role of disturbance legacies in biogeochemical dynamics in ecosystems. In this study, we examined changes in dissolved and total inorganic nutrients, organic carbon, and chlorophyll-a concentrations across a large freshwater-to-marine aquatic continuum. We hypothesized that the rate of change in water quality would be greatest in the coastal ecotone where disturbances interact to drive nutrient cycling. Using trend analyses on multi-decadal data collected from 461 locations from the southern Everglades to the Florida Keys, USA. Observed trends of total organic carbon decreased throughout the study area and was the only parameter with a systematic trend throughout the study area. Results of this study demonstrate spatial variability across a large spatial and temporal extent associated with changes in biogeochemical indicators and water quality conditions. Chemical and biological responses to disturbance determine the distribution of nutrients and signals of productivity changes across coastal gradients.
Scientific Significance Statement
Disturbances such as hurricanes, wildfires, sea-level rise, and eutrophication can change water quality conditions in fresh and marine waters. While it is difficult to attribute specific changes to specific disturbances, the cumulative effect and interaction of disturbances result in the water quality we experience. Numerous studies have been conducted at small and moderate scales evaluating changes in water quality conditions relative to disturbance events across the Everglades and southern Florida. Here we compared long-term changes in water quality over a wide spatial extent ranging from the freshwater Everglades to the reefs of the Florida Keys. Our study demonstrates spatial variability across a large spatial and temporal extent associated with changes in water quality conditions relative to disturbance events.
... As a result, adapting to changing water levels and planning has a strong local component and each coastal area must consider their unique characteristics. For example, Wdowinski et al. (2016) show that the rate of SLR in Southeast Florida is more accelerated than the global average (9 +-4mm/year vs. 3.2 +-0.4mm/year) which will likely be manifested in larger social and economic impacts compared to some other parts of the world. In addition to the challenges posed by the rising sea levels, anthropogenic climate change also poses risk to coastal communities by higher storm surges (2) and the co-occurrence of sea-level rise, storm surge and flooding caused by heavy precipitation (3). ...
... As already suggested, South Florida is a rich case study because its vulnerability to SLR and severe storms is well documented, yet it continues to attract tourists and residents in large numbers [9]. In order to address this contradiction, we will consider the city of Miami Beach (CMB) as a growth machine, so that we can begin to understand its continued attraction for those purchasing real estate [13]. ...
While the UN recognizes the right of individuals “to take risks and make mistakes”, there are reasons to question whether this right can be universal. In the context of a changing climate, it is imperative that individuals have access to a safe and sustainable environment; yet we must ask if this covenant is broken if people choose to place themselves in harm’s way. In its first part, this paper explores outcomes of climate change denial, manifested as continued migration to dangerous locations, and skepticism for adaptive strategies. The second half of the paper explores how localities can create a false narrative concerning risks, and asks whether communities also have a right to make mistakes?
... As a result, adapting for changing water levels and planning has a strong local component and each coastal area must consider their unique characteristics. For example, Wdowinski et al. (2016) shows that the rate of SLR in Southeast Florida is more accelerated than the global average (9 +-4mm/year vs. 3.2 +-0.4mm/year) which will likely be manifested in larger social and economic impacts compared to some other parts of the world. In addition to the challenges posed by the rising sea levels, anthropogenic climate change also poses risk to coastal communities by higher storm surges (1) and the co-occurrence of sea level rise, storm surge and flooding caused by heavy precipitation (2). ...
... With the continuous change of climate, the rise of the sea level has led to various geological disasters worldwide, and their frequency may increase in the future. Some impacts of sea-level rise are well known, such as the submergence and flooding of coastal land [10][11][12], the destruction of wetlands, salt marshes, and mangroves [13][14][15], increased storm surges [16,17], seawater intrusion [18,19] and the destruction of port and harbor facilities [20]. Besides this, sea-level rise can also induce seismicity, seismic liquefaction and submarine mass failure, which are rarely discussed comprehensively in the literature. ...
With the rapid development of urbanization around the world, the sea-level-rise problem is gaining more and more attention in the 21st century. Sea-level rise is the result of a combination of climate-related factors, structural factors and human activities. Recent studies related to the contributions of these factors to sea-level rise are reviewed and analyzed in this paper. The results suggest that the melting of glaciers and ice sheets have contributed the most to sea-level rise and will continue to be the dominant factor in sea-level rise for the following decades. As sea-level rise becomes an increasingly serious problem, geological disasters related to sea-level rise are also gaining more attention. To better understand the effect of sea-level rise on geological disasters, relevant issues including storm surges, seawater intrusion, the loss of coastal wetland, seismicity, seismic liquefaction and submarine mass failure are further reviewed and highlighted. In response to the risks of those disasters caused by sea-level rise, some disaster mitigation measures are proposed, and in the end, the quantitative disaster assessment concept based on resilience is introduced to the coastal urban system, to assess its ability to resist and recover from geological disasters due to the sea-level rise.
... Humans have difficulties keeping track of baselines (Pauly, 1995;Moore et al., 2019). The slow rise in mains sea-level is a perfect example, e.g., flooding during king-tides in Miami becomes normal (Wdowinski et al., 2016). Subsequently, a sense of urgency and need-for-change is lost, and the public and coordinated response is hampered. ...
This study explores how experiences from the current pandemic can inform societal responses to future climate change. To that end, an established philosophical concept of geoscientific insights (geoethics) is utilized to advice on governance under systemic uncertainty that, in turn, is a critical feature of complex-adaptive dynamics. Illustrative examples are the Covid-19 health pandemic and the impact of the global sea-level rise to threatening heights in the early 22nd Century. The term “geoethics” labels an emergent geo-philosophical school of thought rooted in geoscience expertise. When combined with contemporary political philosophies, geoethics leads to a geo-philosophical framework that can support adaptation to complex-adaptive dynamics by favoring multi-agent and context-depending processes (e.g., learning-by-doing). The proposed geo-philosophical framework merges geoethics with the political philosophies of H. Jonas (1903–1993), L. Kohlberg (1927–1987), and M. Bunge (1919–2020). These contemporary philosophies emphasize as relevant for achieving a modern caretaking society, respectively, “the hierarchy of societal coordination processes,” “the intergenerational responsibility of agents of change,” and “the balancing of individual wellbeing (happiness) and duties.” When these philosophies are combined with geoethics, a logical approach can be derived for policy design and decision-making. It emphasizes the “autonomy” (of the human agent) combined with a civic culture that favors “trustworthiness,” “scientific culture.” and a “culture of inclusive justice.” We argue that governance of adaptation to complex-adaptive dynamics (e.g., climate change impact) can be informed by the geo- and society-centric perspectives of the proposed geo-philosophical framework. It can address “Human Earth Nexus” governance issues using the knowledge of both natural and social sciences and applying the lens of geoethical thinking.
... Plausible scenarios would include a SLR of 0.4-0.83 m in 2081-2100 (IPCC 2013), or even higher for the coastal region of Florida (Wdowinski et al., 2016), and category 4 and 5 TCs (Knutson et al., 2020) . ...
Background
The repercussions of climate change threaten the population with an increased prevalence of extreme climate events. We explored the impact of climate change induced sea level rise (SLR) and tropical cyclone (TC) exposure on mental illness symptom prevalence.
Methods
Using three datasets, TC exposure scores were calculated for each subject to determine how exposure affects posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), anxiety, and major depressive disorder (MDD) symptom prevalence. Inundation mapping of various SLR and storm surge (SS) scenarios were performed for the susceptible region of Miami-Dade and Broward counties to determine the population impact of flooding.
Results
We found an elevated risk of mental illness symptoms from exposure to more high- intensity TCs and identified demographic variables that may contribute to this risk. Furthermore, inundation mapping demonstrated severe and widespread impact of SLR and SS on the mental health of communities.
Limitations
This study did not include data directly measuring comorbidity, resilience, preparedness, or ability to adapt to climate change. Also, multiple imputation using chained equations may have been imperfect. Furthermore, there is uncertainty in predicting and mapping SLR and TC intensity, which limits complete confidence in our SS predictions.
Conclusion
The impacts of climate change have been frequently studied in terms of physical health, natural disaster prevalence, and economic impacts, but rarely on mental health burden. However, it is vital that national, state, and local governments develop and deploy plans to address mental health needs along with expenditures for protecting infrastructure, the economy, and physical health from the combined effects of SLR and climate change-induced natural disasters.
... Given the combination of increased high tide flooding in coastal Florida (Hino et al. 2019;Sweet et al. 2017;Wdowinski et al. 2016) and the absence of a mandatory flood risk disclosure statute, how do real estate agents in South Florida rank susceptibility to flooding among the considerations they believe that buyers con-sider when searching for a home? We presented the survey respondents with ten neighborhood qualities and asked them to indicate the importance of each in the search process. ...
The survey of real estate agents was intended to provide a perspective from informed professionals on the status and the trajectory of the housing market in coastal south Florida. When asked whether they believed that house prices were relatively stagnant or falling in low-elevation coastal areas subject to flood risks, most responded either rarely or not at all. They also generally have seen little or no evidence that either lenders or appraisers are taking vulnerability to sea-level rise into account when making decisions about home mortgage loans. Most of the real estate agents also foresee little impact of coastal flooding on demand or prices for such properties in the 5–10-year future.
... Given the combination of increased high tide flooding in coastal Florida (Hino et al. 2019;Sweet et al. 2017;Wdowinski et al. 2016) and the absence of a mandatory flood risk disclosure statute, how do real estate agents in South Florida rank susceptibility to flooding among the considerations they believe that buyers con-sider when searching for a home? We presented the survey respondents with ten neighborhood qualities and asked them to indicate the importance of each in the search process. ...
Requirements for licensure as a real estate agent have become increasingly demanding over the past decades, involving the acquisition of knowledge and skills that make real estate agents invaluable to both home sellers and homebuyers. The National Association of Realtors® has set a stringent code of ethics for its members. In addition, Florida statutes require the disclosure of “all known facts that materially affect the value of residential property and are not readily observable.” Empirical research has demonstrated the important influence that real estate agents have on buyers, and therefore an assessment of their evaluation of trends in the property market are crucial for an understanding of current practice and trends.
Plain Language Summary
Alongshore wind stress and sea level pressure (SLP) are important regional forces in driving low‐frequency (interannual‐to‐decadal) sea level anomalies along the U.S. east coast. The roles of these regional forcings, however, vary with time, season, and region, which can shift the location and change the frequency and intensity of coastal flooding. In this study, we find that regional forcings contribute more to observed sea level variability north of Cape Hatteras in recent decades (1990–2020) compared to earlier decades (1959–1989), particularly during summer. The increased role of regional forcings results from SLP variability via the Inverted Barometer (IB) effect, which exhibits a significant upward trend during summer with lower (higher) SLP raising (suppressing) sea level. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is largely responsible for the increased role of IB effect because the lower SLP anomalies related to the NAO have become more prominent north of Cape Hatteras in recent decades. Although winter NAO has been shown to be important for affecting the coastal sea level anomalies, it is the summer NAO effect that is enhanced via the IB effect, accounting for the enhanced regional forcing in recent decades.
Wintertime precipitation, especially snowstorms, significantly impacts people's lives. However, the current forecast skill of wintertime precipitation is still low. Based on data augmentation (DA) and deep learning, we propose a DABU‐Net which improves the Global Forecast System wintertime precipitation forecast over southeastern China. We build three independent models for the forecast lead times of 24, 48, and 72 hr, respectively. After using DABU‐Net, the mean Root Mean Squared Errors (RMSEs) of the wintertime precipitation at the three lead times are reduced by 19.08%, 25.00%, and 22.37%, respectively. The threat scores (TS) are all significantly increased at the thresholds of 1, 5, 10, 15, and 20 mm day⁻¹ for the three lead times. During heavy precipitation days, the RMSEs are decreased by 14% and TS are increased by 7% at the lead times within 48 hr. Therefore, combining DA and deep learning has great prospects in precipitation forecasting.
Numerous recent studies found significant correlations between weakening of the Gulf Stream (GS) and rising coastal sea level (CSL) along the U.S. East Coast. Based on monthly altimeter data and Florida Current transport, Chi et al. (2023; here, CH23) argued that geostrophic adjustment of the GS is unlikely to drive variations in CSL in the Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB). It is argued here that this conclusion cannot be universally applicable to all cases, since the monthly data disregard correlations previously found for short time scales based on hourly and daily data; the impact of GS variability on time scales of decades and longer as well as potential time lags between the GS and CSL variability were also not considered by CH23. Examples are given here to demonstrate the important role of the GS in post hurricane coastal flooding.
Over the past decade, city governments have increasingly turned to financial markets to help pay for elements of their resilience plans. The techno-utopian zeal of the plans and related financing mechanisms has led some scholars to read both as diagnostic of the “post-political” urban condition. This paper engages these concerns through the case of the Miami Forever Bond, a novel $400 million bond that pays for an initial round of resilient infrastructure in Miami, Florida. Bringing social studies of finance and racial capitalism scholarship to bear on the case, I argue that the bond helps constitute and formalize a terrain of struggle over the city’s future and its longstanding “infrastructural investments in whiteness.” The case thus belies a straightforward reading of urban climate finance as diagnostic of the post-political urban condition. It also points to a need to revisit prominent modes of inquiry on, and recognition of, the politics of urban climate finance. Thus, in the conclusion I reflect on how the approach developed here can be used to (1) analyze actually existing urban politics as they increasingly transpire under the banner of climate finance and (2) aid in growing scholarly calls to pinpoint possibilities for climate-linked repair.
Sea level rise (SLR) increases the frequency of floods caused by forces such as spring tides or storm surges. However, with the continuous evolution of global ocean tides, future flooding may be driven only by astronomical tides. Therefore, we introduce an inaction method (IM) that can accurately extract the harmonic constant of tidal components from the time‐frequency spectrum of the tide, and obtain the precise long‐term trend and spatial evolution characteristics of the tides at 18 sites along the East Coast of the United States (ECUS). Except for some sites in the middle of the East Coast, M2 shows an average upward trend of more than 51 mm/century, which is most obvious at three sites in North Carolina, with an average upward trend of more than 80 mm/century. We simultaneously combine the IM with harmonic analysis into an IMHA method to estimate the historical and future “Tide‐only” inundation (TOI) frequency and quantify the effect of tidal evolution on the future TOI frequency. The results show that four stations in the Gulf of Maine have experienced relatively frequent TOI events in the past, with the highest frequency at the Eastport station. The most significant increasing and decreasing effects of tidal evolution on the future TOI frequency under the SLR scenario are at the Wilmington and Lewes stations, respectively. At the spatial scale, there are increases in the northeast and southeast and a decrease in the middle of the ECUS, which is consistent with the spatial characteristics of the long‐term tidal trend.
A 38-year hindcast water level product is developed for the United States Southeast Atlantic coastline from the entrance of Chesapeake Bay to the southeast tip of Florida. The water level modelling framework utilized in this study combines a global-scale hydrodynamic model (Global Tide and Surge Model, GTSM-ERA5), a novel ensemble-based tide model, a parameterized wave setup model, and statistical corrections applied to improve modelled water level components. Corrected water level data are found to be skillful, with an RMSE of 13 cm, when compared to observed water level measurement at tide gauge locations. The largest errors in the hindcast are location-based and typically found in the tidal component of the model. Extreme water levels across the region are driven by compound events, in this case referring to combined surge, tide, and wave forcing. However, the relative importance of water level components varies spatially, such that tides are found to be more important in the center of the study region, non-tidal residual water levels to the north, and wave setup in the north and south. Hurricanes drive the most extreme water level events within the study area, but non-hurricane events define the low to mid-level recurrence interval water level events. This study presents a robust analysis of the complex oceanographic factors that drive coastal flood events. This dataset will support a variety of critical coastal research goals including research related to coastal hazards, landscape change, and community risk assessments.
Increasing coastal inundation risk in a warming climate will require accurate and reliable seasonal forecasts of sea level anomalies at fine spatial scales. In this study, we explore statistical downscaling of monthly hindcasts from six current seasonal prediction systems to provide a high‐resolution prediction of sea level anomalies along the North American coast, including at several tide gauge stations. This involves applying a seasonally invariant downscaling operator, constructing by linearly regressing high‐resolution (1/12°) ocean reanalysis data against its coarse‐grained (1°) counterpart, to each hindcast ensemble member for the period 1982–2011. The resulting high‐resolution coastal hindcasts have significantly more deterministic skill than the original hindcasts interpolated onto the high‐resolution grid. Most of this improvement occurs during summer and fall, without impacting the seasonality of skill noted in previous studies. Analysis of the downscaling operator reveals that it boosts skill by amplifying the most predictable patterns while damping the less predictable patterns.
Fast sea level rise (SLR) is causing a growing risk of flooding to coastal communities around the Chesapeake Bay (hereafter, CB or “the Bay”), but there are also significant differences in sea level variability and sea level rise rates within the bay that have not been fully investigated in the past. Therefore, monthly sea level records for 1975–2021 from eight tide gauge stations, from the upper bay at Baltimore, MD, to the lower bay at Norfolk, VA, are analyzed and compared. The results show significant spatial variations within the Bay over a wide range of time scales. The largest contribution to the seasonal variations of mean sea level in the Bay is from the annual (SA) and semiannual (SSA) tides, while the contribution from thermosteric changes is relatively smaller. The lower Bay has a ~ 5 cm smaller mean annual sea level range than the upper Bay and has a secondary minimum in mid-year due to a larger semiannual tide than the upper Bay which is dominated by the annual tide. Variations in sea level anomaly (after removing the mean seasonal cycle) show anticorrelation between the upper and lower bay. Empirical mode decomposition (EMD) analysis reveals that variations with opposite phases at the two edges of the Bay appear mostly on decadal time scales that are linked with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Sea level trends vary along the Bay—linear SLR rates (4.5–6.1 mm y−1) increase from north to south, while sea level acceleration rates (all positive in the range 0.012–0.16 mm y−2) increase from south to north. The linear SLR pattern is driven by land subsidence rates, while the acceleration pattern suggests potential impacts from climate change signals that enter the mouth of the Bay in the southeast and amplified farther north by local dynamics. Monthly sea level projections until 2100, based on past trends and the seasonal cycle of each station, are compared with different SLR scenarios based on climate models. The results suggest that accounting for local sea level acceleration in projections can result in large differences in local future sea level rise.
The insurance industry uses catastrophe models to assess and manage the risk from natural disasters such as tropical cyclones, floods, and wildfires. However, despite being designed to consider a credible range of future events, catastrophe models are ultimately calibrated on historical experience. This means that unexpected things can happen, either because risks that were overlooked or deemed immaterial turn out to be meaningful, or because black swans occur that scientists and insurers were not yet aware of. When faced with these types of extreme uncertainty, insurers can use downward counterfactual analysis to explore how historical events could have had more severe consequences (and help identify previously unknown or overlooked risks). In this chapter, we present a methodology for insurers to operationalise downward counterfactuals using tropical cyclone catastrophe models. The methodology is applied to three recent major hurricanes that were near misses for Miami—Matthew (2016), Irma (2017), and Dorian (2019). The results reveal downward counterfactuals that produce insured losses many times greater than what transpired, at up to 300x greater for Matthew, 25x for Irma, and 250x for Dorian. We argue that it is increasingly important for insurers to examine such near-miss events in a changing climate, particularly in disaster prone regions, like Miami, that might not have seen a large loss in recent years. By operationalising downward counterfactuals, insurers can increase risk awareness, stress-test risk management frameworks, and inform decision-making.
A regional numerical ocean model of the Gulf Stream (GS) and the US East Coast was used to conduct sensitivity experiments of the dynamic response to temperature anomalies originated at different Atlantic locations. In a series of experiments, temperature anomalies were injected into the model domain through inflow boundary conditions at either the Florida Current (FC), the Slope Current (SC), or the Sargasso Sea (SS), while holding all other inflows/outflows unchanged. The strong currents and meso-scale variability of the GS system result in fast transport of anomalies throughout the model domain and immediate response within days. During a period of 60 days, remote temperature anomalies of ± 2 °C induced about 5–12 cm change in coastal sea level, about 0.5–1.0 ms−1 change in velocity, and about 30–50 km shift in the GS position, and a significant increase in kinetic energy of the whole GS system. Warm anomaly entering into the GS from the south through the FC had the strongest impact, strengthening the GS and temporally lowering coastal sea level by as much as ~ 10 cm, compared with coastal sea level drop of ~ 2–3 cm when the same warm anomaly was coming from the SS. Cold or warm anomalies coming from the north through the SC caused a large shift in the GS path, which moved onshore in the Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB) and offshore in the South Atlantic Bight (SAB). Observations taken in 2017 when 3 hurricanes disrupted the GS flow show similar links between temperature anomalies, the GS, and coastal sea level, as in the idealized model simulations. The results demonstrated how temperature anomalies due to storms or uneven climate warming can cause variations on the coast and increased kinetic energy near western boundary currents. Since coastal sea level is positively correlated with temperature, but negatively correlated with the strength of the GS, the non-linear combination of the two factors can result in unexpected spatiotemporal variability in coastal sea level. The study provides better understanding of how remote signals affect the coast.
Sukcesem rynkowym jest między innymi usatysfakcjonowanie klienta. Czynnikiem,
który ma znaczący wpływ na świadomość klienta jest jakość nabywanych przez niego
produktów żywnościowych. Jakość bywa różnie postrzegana i oceniana subiektywnie.
Do klienta, według jego postrzegania jakości, należy podjęcie decyzji o wyborze i zakupie
danego produktu żywnościowego. Dbanie przez sprzedawców o jakość oferowanych
produktów żywnościowych klientowi to dbanie również o jego zdrowie, a nawet życie.
Celem opracowania jest, zaprezentowanie, w ujęciu teoretycznym wybranych
aspektów decydujących o wyborze i spożyciu produktów żywnościowych o wysokiej
jakości początkowej. Ponadto przedstawienie niektórych, opisanych w literaturze,
problemów związanych z marnowaniem żywności. Zastosowano metodę krytycznego
przeglądu źródeł dostępnej literatury zarówno krajowej, jak i zagranicznej.
published at: 10.3389/fpos.2022.819930
This study explores how experiences from the current pandemic can inform societal responses to future climate change. To that end, an established philosophical concept of geoscientific insights (geoethics) is utilized to advise on governance under systemic uncertainty that, in turn, is a critical feature of complex-adaptive dynamics. Illustrative examples are the Covid-19 health pandemic and the impact of the global sea-level rise to threatening heights in the early 22nd Century.
The term ‘geoethics’ labels an emergent geo-philosophical school of thought that is rooted in geoscience expertise. When combined with contemporary political philosophies, geoethics leads to a geo-philosophical framework that can support adaptation to complex-adaptive dynamics by favoring multi-agent and context-depending processes (e.g., learning-by-doing).
The proposed geo-philosophical framework merges geoethics with the political philosophies of Kohlberg, Jonas, and Bunge. These contemporary philosophies emphasize as relevant for achieving a caretaking society, respectively, ‘the hierarchy of societal coordination processes’, ‘the intergenerational responsibility of agents of change’, and ‘the balancing of individual well-being (happiness) and duties’. When these philosophies are combined with geoethics, a logical approach can be derived for policy design and decision-making. It emphasizes the ‘autonomy’ (of the human agent) combined with a civic culture that favors ‘trustworthiness’, ‘scientific culture’, and a ‘culture of inclusive justice’. We argue that governance of adaptation to complex-adaptive dynamics (e.g., climate change impact) can be informed by the geo- and society-centric perspectives of the proposed geo-philosophical framework. It can address 'Human Earth Nexus' governance issues using the knowledge of both natural and social sciences and applying the lens of geoethical thinking.
(accepted for publication, 1st Feb. 2022)
Human-induced climate change could cause global sea-level rise. Through
the dynamic adjustment of the sea surface in response to a possible
slowdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, a warming
climate could also affect regional sea levels, especially in the North
Atlantic region, leading to high vulnerability for low-lying Florida and
western Europe. Here we analyse climate projections from a set of
state-of-the-art climate models for such regional changes, and find a
rapid dynamical rise in sea level on the northeast coast of the United
States during the twenty-first century. For New York City, the rise due
to ocean circulation changes amounts to 15, 20 and 21cm for scenarios
with low, medium and high rates of emissions respectively, at a similar
magnitude to expected global thermal expansion. Analysing one of the
climate models in detail, we find that a dynamic, regional rise in sea
level is induced by a weakening meridional overturning circulation in
the Atlantic Ocean, and superimposed on the global mean sea-level rise.
We conclude that together, future changes in sea level and ocean
circulation will have a greater effect on the heavily populated
northeastern United States than estimated previously.
The Florida Current is the headwater of the Gulf Stream and is
a component of the North Atlantic western boundary current from
which a geostrophic balance between sea surface height and mass
transport directly influence coastal sea levels along the Florida Straits. A linear regression of daily Florida Current transport
estimates does not find a significant change in transport over the
last decade; however, a nonlinear trend extracted from empirical mode decomposition (EMD) suggests a 3 Sv decline in mean
transport. This decline is consistent with observed tide gauge
records in Florida Bay and the straits exhibiting an
acceleration of mean sea level (MSL) rise over the decade. It is not
known whether this recent change represents natural variability or
the onset of the anticipated secular decline in Atlantic meridional
overturning circulation (AMOC); nonetheless, such changes have direct
impacts on the sensitive ecological systems of the Everglades as
well as the climate of western Europe and eastern North America.
The Florida Current is the headwater of the Gulf Stream and is a component of the North Atlantic western boundary current from which a geostrophic balance between sea surface height and mass transport directly influence coastal sea levels along the Florida Straits. A linear regression of daily Florida Current transport estimates does not find a significant change in transport over the last decade, however, a nonlinear trend extracted from empirical mode decomposition suggests a 3 Sv decline in mean transport. This decline is consistent with observed tide gauge records in Florida Bay and the Straits, all exhibiting an acceleration of mean sea level rise over the decade. It is not known whether this recent change represents natural variability or the onset of the anticipated secular decline in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, nonetheless, such changes have direct impacts on the sensitive ecological systems of the Everglades as well as the climate of western Europe and eastern North America.
The ability of empirical mode decomposition (EMD) to
extract multi-decadal variability from sea level records is tested using
three simulations: one based on a series of purely sinusoidal modes, one
based on scaled climate indices of El Niño and the Pacific decadal
oscillation (PDO), and the final one including a single month with an
extreme sea level event. All simulations include random noise of similar
variance to high-frequency variability in the San Francisco tide gauge
record. The intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) computed using EMD were compared
to the prescribed oscillations. In all cases, the longest-period modes are
significantly distorted, with incorrect amplitudes and phases. This affects
the estimated acceleration computed from the longest periodic IMF. In these
simulations, the acceleration was underestimated in the case with purely
sinusoidal modes, and overestimated by nearly 100% in the case with
prescribed climate modes. Additionally, in all cases, extra low-frequency
modes uncorrelated with the prescribed variability are found. These
experiments suggest that using EMD to identify multi-decadal variability and
accelerations in sea level records should be used with caution.
The global climate has been experiencing significant warming at an unprecedented pace in the past century(1,2). This warming is spatially and temporally non-uniform, and one needs to understand its evolution to better evaluate its potential societal and economic impact. Here, the evolution of global land surface air temperature trend in the past century is diagnosed using the spatial-temporally multidimensional ensemble empirical mode decomposition method(3). We find that the noticeable warming (>0.5 K) started sporadically over the global land and accelerated until around 1980. Both the warming rate and spatial structure have changed little since. The fastest warming in recent decades (>0.4 K per decade) occurred in northern mid-latitudes. From a zonal average perspective, noticeable warming (>0.2 K since 1900) first took place in the subtropical and subpolar regions of the Northern Hemisphere, followed by subtropical warming in the Southern Hemisphere. The two bands of warming in the Northern Hemisphere expanded from 1950 to 1985 and merged to cover the entire Northern Hemisphere.
.Recent studies identified the U.S. East Coast north of Cape Hatteras as a “hotspot” for accelerated sea level rise (SLR), and the analysis presented here show that the area is also a “hotspot for accelerated flooding”. The duration of minor tidal flooding (defined as 0.3 m above MHHW) has accelerated in recent years for most coastal locations from the Gulf of Maine to Florida. The average increase in annual minor flooding duration was ~20 hours from the period until 1970 to 1971–1990, and ~50 hours from 1971–1990 to 1991–2013; spatial variations in acceleration of flooding resembles the spatial variations of acceleration in sea level. The increase in minor flooding can be predicted from SLR and tidal range, but the frequency of extreme storm-surge flooding events (0.9 m above MHHW) is less predictable, and affected by the North Atlantic Oscillations (NAO). The number of extreme storm surge events since 1960 oscillates with a period of ~15-year and interannual variations in the number of storms is anti-correlated with the NAO index. With higher seas, there are also more flooding events that are unrelated to storm surges. For example, it is demonstrated that week-long flooding events in Norfolk, VA, are often related to periods of decrease in the Florida Current transport. The results indicate that previously reported connections between decadal variations in the Gulf Stream and coastal sea level may also apply to short-term variations, so flood predictions may be improved if the Gulf Stream influence is considered.
Sea level data from the Chesapeake Bay are used to test a novel new
analysis method for studies of sea level rise (SLR). The method, based
on Empirical Mode Decomposition and Hilbert-Huang Transformation,
separates the sea level trend from other oscillating modes and reveals
how the mean sea level changes over time. Bootstrap calculations test
the robustness of the method and provide confidence levels. The analysis
shows that rates of SLR have increased from ˜1-3 mm y-1 in the 1930s to ˜4-10 mm
y-1 in 2011, an acceleration of ˜0.05-0.10 mm y-2 that is larger than
most previous studies, but comparable to recent findings by Sallenger
and collaborators. While land subsidence increases SLR rates in the bay
relative to global SLR, the acceleration results support Sallenger et
al.'s proposition that an additional contribution to SLR from climatic
changes in ocean circulation is affecting the region.
Recent studies indicate that the rates of sea level rise (SLR) along the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast have accelerated in recent decades, possibly due to a slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and its upper branch, the Gulf Stream (GS). We analyzed the GS elevation gradient obtained from altimeter data, the Florida Current transport obtained from cable measurements, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, and coastal sea level obtained from 10 tide gauge stations in the Chesapeake Bay and the mid-Atlantic coast. An Empirical Mode Decomposition/Hilbert-Huang Transformation (EMD/HHT) method was used to separate long-term trends from oscillating modes. The coastal sea level variations were found to be strongly influenced by variations in the GS on timescales ranging from a few months to decades. It appears that the GS has shifted from a 6–8 year oscillation cycle to a continuous weakening trend since about 2004 and that this trend may be responsible for recent acceleration in local SLR. The correlation between long-term changes in the coastal sea level and changes in the GS strength was extremely high (R = −0.85 with more than 99.99% confidence that the correlation is not zero). The impact of the GS on SLR rates over the past decade seems to be larger in the southern portion of the mid-Atlantic Bight near Cape Hatteras and is reduced northward along the coast. The study suggests that regional coastal sea level rise projections due to climate change must take into account the impact of spatial changes in ocean dynamics.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jgrc.20091/full
Impacts of ocean dynamics on spatial and temporal variations in sea level rise (SLR) along the U.S. East Coast are characterized by empirical mode decomposition analysis and compared with global SLR. The findings show a striking latitudinal SLR pattern. Sea level acceleration consistent with a weakening Gulf Stream is maximum just north of Cape Hatteras and decreasing northward, while SLR driven by multidecadal variations, possibly from climatic variations in subpolar regions, is maximum in the north and decreasing southward. The combined impact of sea level acceleration and multidecadal variations explains why the global mean SLR obtained from similar to 20 years of altimeter data is about twice the century-long global SLR obtained from tide gauge data. The sea level difference between Bermuda and the U.S. coast is highly correlated with the transport of the Atlantic Overturning Circulation, a result with implications for detecting past and future climatic changes using tide gauge data.
Sound policies for protecting coastal communities and assets require good information about vulnerability to flooding. Here, we investigate the influence of sea level rise on expected storm surge-driven water levels and their frequencies along the contiguous United States. We use model output for global temperature changes, a semi-empirical model of global sea level rise, and long-term records from 55 nationally distributed tidal gauges to develop sea level rise projections at each gauge location. We employ more detailed records over the period 1979–2008 from the same gauges to elicit historic patterns of extreme high water events, and combine these statistics with anticipated relative sea level rise to project changing local extremes through 2050. We find that substantial changes in the frequency of what are now considered extreme water levels may occur even at locations with relatively slow local sea level rise, when the difference in height between presently common and rare water levels is small. We estimate that, by mid-century, some locations may experience high water levels annually that would qualify today as ‘century’ (i.e., having a chance of occurrence of 1% annually) extremes. Today’s century levels become ‘decade’ (having a chance of 10% annually) or more frequent events at about a third of the study gauges, and the majority of locations see substantially higher frequency of previously rare storm-driven water heights in the future. These results add support to the need for policy approaches that consider the non-stationarity of extreme events when evaluating risks of adverse climate impacts.
Settlements in coastal lowlands are especially vulnerable to risks resulting from climate change, yet these lowlands are densely settled and growing rapidly. In this paper, we undertake the first global review of the population and urban settlement patterns in the Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ), defined here as the contiguous area along the coast that is less than 10 metres above sea level. Overall, this zone covers 2 per cent of the world's land area but contains 10 per cent of the world's population and 13 per cent of the world's urban population. A disproportionate number of the countries with a large share of their population in this zone are small island countries, but most of the countries with large populations in the zone are large countries with heavily populated delta regions. On average, the Least Developed Countries have a higher share of their population living in the zone (14 per cent) than do OECD countries (10 per cent), with even greater disparities in the urban shares (21 per cent compared to 11 per cent). Almost two-thirds of urban settlements with populations greater than 5 million fall, at least partly, in the zone. In some countries (most notably China), urbanization is driving a movement in population towards the coast. Reducing the risk of disasters related to climate change in coastal settlements will require a combination of mitigation, migration and settlement modification.
Periods of high astronomically generated tides contribute to the occurrence of extreme sea levels. Over interannual time scales, two precessions associated with the orbit of the Moon cause systematic variation of high tides. A global assessment of when these tidal modulations occur allows for the prediction of periods when the enhanced risk of coastal flooding is likely in different parts of the world. This paper uses modeled tides to assess the influence of the 18.61 year lunar nodal cycle and the 8.85 year cycle of lunar perigee (which affects high tidal levels as a quasi 4.4 year cycle) on high tidal levels on a global scale. Tidal constituents from the TPXO7.2 global tidal model are used, with satellite modulation corrections based on equilibrium tide expectations, to predict multidecadal hourly time series of tides on a one-quarter degree global grid. These time series are used to determine the amplitude and phase of tidal modulations using harmonic analysis fitted to 18.61, 9.305, 8.85, and 4.425 year sinusoidal signals. The spatial variations in the range and phase of the tidal modulations are related to the global distribution of the main tidal constituents and tidal characteristics (diurnal or semidiurnal and tidal range). Results indicate that the 18.61 year nodal cycle has the greatest influence in diurnal regions with tidal ranges of >4 m and that the 4.4 year cycle is largest in semidiurnal regions where the tidal range is >6 m. The phase of the interannual tidal modulations is shown to relate to the form of the tide.
Because sea level could rise 1 m or more during the next century, it is important to understand what land, communities and assets may be most at risk from increased flooding and eventual submersion. Employing a recent high-resolution edition of the National Elevation Dataset and using VDatum, a newly available tidal model covering the contiguous US, together with data from the 2010 Census, we quantify low-lying coastal land, housing and population relative to local mean high tide levels, which range from ~0 to 3 m in elevation (North American Vertical Datum of 1988). Previous work at regional to national scales has sometimes equated elevation with the amount of sea level rise, leading to underestimated risk anywhere where the mean high tide elevation exceeds 0 m, and compromising comparisons across regions with different tidal levels. Using our tidally adjusted approach, we estimate the contiguous US population living on land within 1 m of high tide to be 3.7 million. In 544 municipalities and 38 counties, we find that over 10% of the population lives below this line; all told, some 2150 towns and cities have some degree of exposure. At the state level, Florida, Louisiana, California, New York and New Jersey have the largest sub-meter populations. We assess topographic susceptibility of land, housing and population to sea level rise for all coastal states, counties and municipalities, from 0 to 6 m above mean high tide, and find important threat levels for widely distributed communities of every size. We estimate that over 22.9 million Americans live on land within 6 m of local mean high tide.
Sea-level rise will increase the area covered by hurricane storm surges in coastal zones. This research assesses how patterns
of vulnerability to storm-surge flooding could change in Hampton Roads, Virginia as a result of sea-level rise. Physical exposure
to storm-surge flooding is mapped for all categories of hurricane, both for present sea level and for future sea-level rise.
The locations of vulnerable sub-populations are determined through an analysis and mapping of socioeconomic characteristics
commonly associated with vulnerability to environmental hazards and are compared to the flood-risk exposure zones. Scenarios
are also developed that address uncertainties regarding future population growth and distribution. The results show that hurricane
storm surge presents a significant hazard to Hampton Roads today, especially to the most vulnerable inhabitants of the region.
In addition, future sea-level rise, population growth, and poorly planned development will increase the risk of storm-surge
flooding, especially for vulnerable people, thus suggesting that planning should steer development away from low-lying coastal
and near-coastal zones.
The Earth has warmed at an unprecedented pace in the decades of the 1980s and 1990s (IPCC in Climate change 2007: the scientific
basis, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2007). In Wu et al. (Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 104:14889–14894, 2007) we showed that the rapidity of the warming in the late twentieth century was a result of concurrence of a secular warming
trend and the warming phase of a multidecadal (~65-year period) oscillatory variation and we estimated the contribution of
the former to be about 0.08°C per decade since ~1980. Here we demonstrate the robustness of those results and discuss their
physical links, considering in particular the shape of the secular trend and the spatial patterns associated with the secular
trend and the multidecadal variability. The shape of the secular trend and rather globally-uniform spatial pattern associated
with it are both suggestive of a response to the buildup of well-mixed greenhouse gases. In contrast, the multidecadal variability
tends to be concentrated over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere and particularly over the North Atlantic, suggestive of
a possible link to low frequency variations in the strength of the thermohaline circulation. Depending upon the assumed importance
of the contributions of ocean dynamics and the time-varying aerosol emissions to the observed trends in global-mean surface
temperature, we estimate that up to one third of the late twentieth century warming could have been a consequence of natural
variability.
KeywordsGlobal warming trend–Multidecadal variability–Ensemble empirical mode decomposition–IPCC AR4
A multi-dimensional ensemble empirical mode decomposition (MEEMD) for multi-dimensional data (such as images or solid with variable density) is proposed here. The decomposition is based on the applications of ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) to slices of data in each and every dimension involved. The final reconstruction of the corresponding intrinsic mode function (IMF) is based on a comparable minimal scale combination principle.
For two-dimensional spatial data or images, f(x,y), we consider the data (or image) as a collection of one-dimensional series in both x-direction and y-direction. Each of the one-dimensional slices is decomposed through EEMD with the slice of the similar scale reconstructed in resulting two-dimensional pseudo-IMF-like components. This new two-dimensional data is further decomposed, but the data is considered as a collection of one-dimensional series in y-direction along locations in x-direction. In this way, we obtain a collection of two-dimensional components. These directly resulted components are further combined into a reduced set of final components based on a minimal-scale combination strategy.
The approach for two-dimensional spatial data can be extended to multi-dimensional data. EEMD is applied in the first dimension, then in the second direction, and then in the third direction, etc., using the almost identical procedure as for the two-dimensional spatial data. A similar comparable minimal-scale combination strategy can be applied to combine all the directly resulted components into a small set of multi-dimensional final components.
For multi-dimensional temporal-spatial data, EEMD is applied to time series of each spatial location to obtain IMF-like components of different time scales. All the ith IMF-like components of all the time series of all spatial locations are arranged to obtain ith temporal-spatial multi-dimensional IMF-like component. The same approach to the one used in temporal-spatial data decomposition is used to obtain the resulting two-dimensional IMF-like components. This approach could be extended to any higher dimensional temporal-spatial data.
Global mean sea-level change has increased from a few centimetres per century over recent millennia to a few tens of
centimetres per century in recent decades. This tenfold increase in the rate of rise can be attributed to climate change
through the melting of land ice and the thermal expansion of ocean water. As the present warming trend is expected to
continue, global mean sea level will continue to rise. Here we review recent insights into past sea-level changes on decadal
to millennial timescales and how they may help constrain future changes. We find that most studies constrain global mean
sea-level rise to less than one metre over the twenty-first century, but departures from this global mean could reach several
decimetres in many areas. We conclude that improving estimates of the spatial variability in future sea-level change is an
important research target in coming years.
The current literature provides compelling evidence suggesting that an eddy-resolving (as opposed to eddy-permitting or eddy-parameterized) ocean component model will significantly impact the simulation of the large-scale climate, although this has not been fully tested to date in multi-decadal global coupled climate simulations. The purpose of this paper is to examine how resolved ocean fronts and eddies impact the simulation of large-scale climate. The model used for this study is the NCAR Community Climate System Model version 3. 5 (CCSM3. 5)-the forerunner to CCSM4. Two experiments are reported here. The control experiment is a 155-year present-day climate simulation using a 0. 5° atmosphere component (zonal resolution 0. 625 meridional resolution 0. 5°; land surface component at the same resolution) coupled to ocean and sea-ice components with zonal resolution of 1. 2° and meridional resolution varying from 0. 27° at the equator to 0. 54° in the mid-latitudes. The second simulation uses the same atmospheric and land-surface models coupled to eddy-resolving 0. 1° ocean and sea-ice component models. The simulations are compared in terms of how the representation of smaller scale features in the time mean ocean circulation and ocean eddies impact the mean and variable climate. In terms of the global mean surface temperature, the enhanced ocean resolution leads to a ubiquitous surface warming with a global mean surface temperature increase of about 0. 2 °C relative to the control. The warming is largest in the Arctic and regions of strong ocean fronts and ocean eddy activity (i. e., Southern Ocean, western boundary currents). The Arctic warming is associated with significant losses of sea-ice in the high-resolution simulation. The sea surface temperature gradients in the North Atlantic, in particular, are better resolved in the high-resolution model leading to significantly sharper temperature gradients and associated large-scale shifts in the rainfall. In the extra-tropics, the interannual temperature variability is increased with the resolved eddies, and a notable increases in the amplitude of the El Niño and the Southern Oscillation is also detected. Changes in global temperature anomaly teleconnections and local air-sea feedbacks are also documented and show large changes in ocean-atmosphere coupling. In particular, local air-sea feedbacks are significantly modified by the increased ocean resolution. In the high-resolution simulation in the extra-tropics there is compelling evidence of stronger forcing of the atmosphere by SST variability arising from ocean dynamics. This coupling is very weak or absent in the low-resolution model.
Global sea levels have risen through the 20th century. These rises will almost certainly accelerate through the 21st century
and beyond because of global warming, but their magnitude remains uncertain. Key uncertainties include the possible role of
the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets and the amplitude of regional changes in sea level. In many areas, nonclimatic
components of relative sea-level change (mainly subsidence) can also be locally appreciable. Although the impacts of sea-level
rise are potentially large, the application and success of adaptation are large uncertainties that require more assessment
and consideration.
Estimating and accounting for twentieth-century global mean sea level (GMSL) rise is critical to characterizing current and future human-induced sea-level change. Several previous analyses of tide gauge records--employing different methods to accommodate the spatial sparsity and temporal incompleteness of the data and to constrain the geometry of long-term sea-level change--have concluded that GMSL rose over the twentieth century at a mean rate of 1.6 to 1.9 millimetres per year. Efforts to account for this rate by summing estimates of individual contributions from glacier and ice-sheet mass loss, ocean thermal expansion, and changes in land water storage fall significantly short in the period before 1990. The failure to close the budget of GMSL during this period has led to suggestions that several contributions may have been systematically underestimated. However, the extent to which the limitations of tide gauge analyses have affected estimates of the GMSL rate of change is unclear. Here we revisit estimates of twentieth-century GMSL rise using probabilistic techniques and find a rate of GMSL rise from 1901 to 1990 of 1.2 ± 0.2 millimetres per year (90% confidence interval). Based on individual contributions tabulated in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this estimate closes the twentieth-century sea-level budget. Our analysis, which combines tide gauge records with physics-based and model-derived geometries of the various contributing signals, also indicates that GMSL rose at a rate of 3.0 ± 0.7 millimetres per year between 1993 and 2010, consistent with prior estimates from tide gauge records.The increase in rate relative to the 1901-90 trend is accordingly larger than previously thought; this revision may affect some projections of future sea-level rise.
[1] We examine long tide gauge records in every ocean basin to examine whether a quasi 60-year oscillation observed in global mean sea level (GMSL) reconstructions reflects a true global oscillation, or an artifact associated with a small number of gauges. We find that there is a significant oscillation with a period around 60-years in the majority of the tide gauges examined during the 20th Century, and that it appears in every ocean basin. Averaging of tide gauges over regions shows that the phase and amplitude of the fluctuations are similar in the North Atlantic, western North Pacific, and Indian Oceans, while the signal is shifted by 10 years in the western South Pacific. The only sampled region with no apparent 60-year fluctuation is the Central/Eastern North Pacific. The phase of the 60-year oscillation found in the tide gauge records is such that sea level in the North Atlantic, western North Pacific, Indian Ocean, and western South Pacific has been increasing since 1985–1990. Although the tide gauge data are still too limited, both in time and space, to determine conclusively that there is a 60-year oscillation in GMSL, the possibility should be considered when attempting to interpret the acceleration in the rate of global and regional mean sea level rise.
Recent flood disasters in the United States (2005, 2008, 2012); the Philippines (2012, 2013); and Britain (2014) illustrate how vulnerable coastal cities are to storm surge flooding (1). Floods caused the largest portion of insured losses among all catastrophes around the world in 2013 (2). Population density in flood-prone coastal zones and megacities is expected to grow by 25% by 2050; projected climate change and sea level rise may further increase the frequency and/or severity of large-scale floods (3–7).
Climate warming does not force sea-level rise (SLR) at the same rate
everywhere. Rather, there are spatial variations of SLR superimposed on
a global average rise. These variations are forced by dynamic processes,
arising from circulation and variations in temperature and/or salinity,
and by static equilibrium processes, arising from mass redistributions
changing gravity and the Earth's rotation and shape. These sea-level
variations form unique spatial patterns, yet there are very few
observations verifying predicted patterns or fingerprints. Here, we
present evidence of recently accelerated SLR in a unique 1,000-km-long
hotspot on the highly populated North American Atlantic coast north of
Cape Hatteras and show that it is consistent with a modelled fingerprint
of dynamic SLR. Between 1950-1979 and 1980-2009, SLR rate increases in
this northeast hotspot were ~ 3-4 times higher than the global average.
Modelled dynamic plus steric SLR by 2100 at New York City ranges with
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenario from 36 to 51cm (ref.
); lower emission scenarios project 24-36cm (ref. ). Extrapolations from
data herein range from 20 to 29cm. SLR superimposed on storm surge, wave
run-up and set-up will increase the vulnerability of coastal cities to
flooding, and beaches and wetlands to deterioration.
Comparisons of OSCAR satellite-derived sea surface currents with in situ data from moored current meters, drifters, and shipboard current profilers indicate that OSCAR presently provides accurate time means of zonal and meridional currents, and in the near-equatorial region reasonably accurate time variability (correlation = 0.5-0.8) of zonal currents at periods as short as 40 days and meridional wavelengths as short as 8°. At latitudes higher than 10° the zonal current correlation remains respectable, but OSCAR amplitudes diminish unrealistically. Variability of meridional currents is poorly reproduced, with severely diminished amplitudes and reduced correlations relative to those for zonal velocity on the equator. OSCAR's RMS differences from drifter velocities are very similar to those experienced by the ECCO (Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean) data-assimilating models, but OSCAR generally provides a larger ocean-correlated signal, which enhances its ratio of estimated signal over noise. Several opportunities exist for modest improvements in OSCAR fidelity even with presently available datasets.
Estimates of regional patterns of global sea level change are obtained from a 1° horizontal resolution general circulation model constrained by least squares to about 100 million ocean observations and many more meteorological estimates during the period 1993-2004. The data include not only altimetric variability, but most of the modern hydrography, Argo float profiles, sea surface temperature, and other observations. Spatial-mean trends in altimetric data are explicitly suppressed to isolate global average long-term changes required by the in situ data alone. On large scales, some regions display strong signals although few individual points have statistically significant trends. In the regional patterns, thermal, salinity, and mass redistribution contributions are all important, showing that regional sea level change is tied directly to the general circulation. Contributions below about 900 m are significant, but not dominant, and are expected to grow with time as the abyssal ocean shifts. Estimates made here produce a global mean of about 1.6 mm yr1, or about 60% of the pure altimetric estimate, of which about 70% is from the addition of freshwater. Interannual global variations may be dominated by the freshwater changes rather than by heating changes. The widely quoted altimetric global average values may well be correct, but the accuracies being inferred in the literature are not testable by existing in situ observations. Useful estimation of the global averages is extremely difficult given the realities of space-time sampling and model approximations. Systematic errors are likely to dominate most estimates of global average change: published values and error bars should be used very cautiously.
In addition to the global mean sea level rise, its local deviation is also very important in climate research. Currently, the sea level along the northeast coast of the United States is very low because of the low basin-mean sea level in the North Atlantic compared to the North Pacific, and the sharp sea level gradient across the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic Current. Here we analyze climate projections from a set of state-of-the-science climate models for regional sea level changes in the North Atlantic, and find a rapid dynamic sea level rise (relative to the global mean) on the northeast coast of the United States during the twenty-first century. For New York City, the dynamic sea level rise amounts to 15, 20 and 21 cm for scenarios with low, medium and high rates of greenhouse-gas emissions respectively, at a similar magnitude to expected global ocean thermal expansion. Analyzing one of the climate models in detail, we find that the dynamic, regional rise in sea level is induced by a weakening meridional overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean, and superimposed on the global mean sea level rise. The weakening of the Atlantic overturning causes a local steric sea level rise along the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic Current much larger than the global mean. More waters are redistributed towards the continental shelf of the northeastern United States. We conclude that together, future changes in sea level and ocean circulation will have a greater effect on the heavily populated northeastern United States than estimated previously.
We investigate the transient response of the global ocean circulation to enhanced freshwater forcing associated with melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Increased freshwater runoff from Greenland results in a basin-wide response of the North Atlantic on timescales of a few years, communicated via boundary waves, equatorial Kelvin waves, and westward propagating Rossby waves. In addition, modified air-sea interaction plays a fundamental role in setting up the basin-scale response of the Atlantic circulation in its subpolar and subtropical gyres. In particular, the modified ocean dynamics and thermodynamics lead to a depression in the central North and South Atlantic that would not be expected from linear wave dynamics. Moreover, the heat content increases on basin and global scales in response to anomalous freshwater forcing from Greenland, suggesting that the ocean's response to enhanced freshwater forcing would be a coupled problem. Other parts of the world ocean experience a much slower adjustment in response to Greenland freshwater forcing, communicated via planetary waves, but also involving advective/diffusive processes, especially in the Southern Ocean. Over the 50 years considered here, most of the sea level increase associated with freshwater input from Greenland remains in the Atlantic Ocean. In contrast, ice melting around Antarctica has a much reduced effect on the global ocean. In both cases, none of the basins came to a stationary state during the 50-year experiment.
Abstract Available from
http://www.agu.org
This study presents an assessment of the potential impacts of sea level rise on the New Jersey, USA coastal region. We produce
two projections of sea level rise for the New Jersey coast over the next century and apply them to a digital elevation model
to illustrate the extent to which coastal areas are susceptible to permanent inundation and episodic flooding due to storm
events. We estimate future coastline displacement and its consequences based on direct inundation only, which provides a lower
bound on total coastline displacement. The objective of this study is to illustrate methodologies that may prove useful to
policy makers despite the large uncertainties inherent in analysis of local impacts of climate and sea level change. Our findings
suggest that approximately 1% to 3% of the land area of New Jersey would be permanently inundated over the next century and
coastal storms would temporarily flood low-lying areas up to 20 times more frequently. Thus, absent human adaptation, by 2100
New Jersey would experience substantial land loss and alteration of the coastal zone, causing widespread impacts on coastal
development and ecosystems. Given the results, we identify future research needs and suggest that an important next step would
be for policy makers to explore potential adaptation strategies.
We estimate the rise in global average sea level from satellite altimeter data for 1993–2009 and from coastal and island sea-level
measurements from 1880 to 2009. For 1993–2009 and after correcting for glacial isostatic adjustment, the estimated rate of
rise is 3.2±0.4mmyear−1 from the satellite data and 2.8±0.8mmyear−1 from the in situ data. The global average sea-level rise from 1880 to 2009 is about 210mm. The linear trend from 1900 to
2009 is 1.7±0.2mmyear−1 and since 1961 is 1.9±0.4mmyear−1. There is considerable variability in the rate of rise during the twentieth century but there has been a statistically significant
acceleration since 1880 and 1900 of 0.009±0.003mmyear−2 and 0.009±0.004mmyear−2, respectively. Since the start of the altimeter record in 1993, global average sea level rose at a rate near the upper end
of the sea level projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Third and Fourth Assessment Reports. However,
the reconstruction indicates there was little net change in sea level from 1990 to 1993, most likely as a result of the volcanic
eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991.
KeywordsSea level–Climate change–Satellite altimeter–Tide gauge
Sea level rise (SLR) due to climate change will increase storm surge height along the 825km long coastline of Metro Boston,
USA. Land at risk consists of urban waterfront with piers and armoring, residential areas with and without seawalls and revetments,
and undeveloped land with either rock coasts or gently sloping beachfront and low-lying coastal marshes. Risk-based analysis
shows that the cumulative 100year economic impacts on developed areas from increased storm surge flooding depend heavily
upon the adaptation response, location, and estimated sea level rise. Generally it is found that it is advantageous to use
expensive structural protection in areas that are highly developed and less structural approaches such as floodproofing and
limiting or removing development in less developed or environmentally sensitive areas.
This paper considers the implications of a range of global-mean sea-level rise and socio-economic scenarios on: (1) changes in flooding by storm surges; and (2) potential losses of coastal wetlands through the 21st century. These scenarios are derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Four different storylines are analysed: the A1FI, A2, B1 and B2 ‘worlds’. The climate scenarios are derived from the HadCM3 climate model driven by the SRES emission scenarios. The SRES scenarios for global-mean sea-level rise range from 22 cm (B1 world) to 34 cm (A1FI world) by the 2080s, relative to 1990. All other climate factors, including storm characteristics, are assumed to remain constant in the long term. Population and GDP scenarios are downscaled from the SRES regional analyses supplemented with other relevant scenarios for each impact analysis.
Impact of ocean model resolution on CCSM climate simulations
- B P Kirtman
- C Bitz
- F Bryan
- W Collins
- J Dennis
- N Hearn
- Iii Kinter
- J L Loft
- R Rousset
- C Siqueira
- L Stan
- C Tomas
- R Vertenstein
Kirtman, B.P., Bitz, C., Bryan, F., Collins, W., Dennis, J., Hearn, N., Kinter III, J.L., Loft, R.,
Rousset, C., Siqueira, L., Stan, C., Tomas, R., Vertenstein, M., 2012. Impact of
ocean model resolution on CCSM climate simulations. Clim. Dyn. 39,
1303e1328.