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Increasing flooding hazard in coastal communities due to rising sea level: Case study of Miami Beach, Florida
Abstract
Sea level rise (SLR) imposes an increasing flooding hazard on low-lying coastal communities due to higher exposure to high-tide conditions and storm surge. Additional coastal flooding hazard arises due to reduced effectiveness of gravity-based drainage systems to drain rainwater during heavy rain events. Over the past decade, several coastal communities along the US Atlantic coast have experienced an increasing rate of flooding events. In this study, we focus on the increasing flooding hazard in Miami Beach, Florida, which has caused severe property damage and significant disruptions to daily life. We evaluate the flooding frequency and its causes by analyzing tide and rain gauge records, media reports, insurance claims, and photo records from Miami Beach acquired during 1998–2013. Our analysis indicates that significant changes in flooding frequency occurred after 2006, in which rain-induced events increased by 33% and tide-induced events increased by more than 400%. We also analyzed tide gauge records from Southeast Florida and detected a decadal-scale accelerating rates of SLR. The average pre-2006 rate is 3 ± 2 mm/yr, similar to the global long-term rate of SLR, whereas after 2006 the average rate of SLR in Southeast Florida rose to 9 ± 4 mm/yr. Our results suggest that engineering solutions to SLR should rely on regional SLR rate projections and not only on the commonly used global SLR projections.
... In the 1990s, these algorithms were disseminated widely in the software for Geographic Information Systems (GIS) in a number of different sets of tools for hydrological analysis. The modeling of coastal watersheds has been shown to be a versatile approach, which has contributed to the geomorphometric description of low-lying coastlines, a type of landscape that is naturally susceptible to positive oscillations in sea level (COZANNET et al., 2006;SEENATH et al., 2016;WDOWINSKI et al., 2016;PAPROTNY & TEREFENKO, 2017). The primary datum for the extraction of geomorphometric parameters is the discrete and continuous representation of the relief in the form of a DEM. ...
... It should also be noted that flat coastal environments associated with depositional sys-tems, such as wetlands or coastal dune field swales, tend to drain excess water relatively slowly, and usually present secondary flooding by damming the water, for up to days after the event that caused the rise in sea level. This is due not only to morphological factors, such as the inef-ficient flow of water through ephemeral channels but also to the subsurface hydrological dy-namics, which are related to fluctuations in the water table (WDOWINSKI et al., 2016;PAP-ROTNY & TEREFENKO, 2017). ...
... Other methodolog-ical considerations are also necessary, including the adjustment of the vertical reference for coastal areas (GESCH, 2009;SCHIMID et al., 2014;KRUEL, 2016) Longley et al. (2010) emphasized that the understanding of the altitude of a given coastal area and its metric relationship with the relative sea level, is fundamental for predicting the effects of climate change. A number of authors (BUSH et al., 1999(BUSH et al., , 2001ROTZOLL & FLETCHER, 2013;MURDUKHAYEVA et al., 2013;HOOVER et al., 2016;MARTÍNEZ-GRAÑA et al., 2016;WDOWINSKI et al., 2016) have also pointed out that the altitude is the most important feature of the assessment of coastal flooding, and when DEMs are applied to hydrological modeling, it is necessary to correlate the altimetric accuracy obtained during the collection of the the topographic data with the local sea reference level (GESCH, 2009). ...
Meteoceanographic forces act daily, provoking rapid changes in coastal geomorphology and impacting the human infrastructure located near the sea, principally on low-lying coasts. The current ongoing rise in sea level provoked by climate change is also a major source of concern for local and regional authorities. Geospatial models of coastal flooding are evolving rapidly, together with geomorphometric tools and their applications. These initiatives may permit the implementation of medium and long-term actions to minimize the effects of flooding, although a range of methodological considerations must be taken into account. Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) have become increasingly more accurate due to the integration of altimetric references and vertical data, as well as the increasing quality of the sensors used. For example, the application of the bathtub approach to coastal flooding assessment has been relatively successful. The choice of the flood model should include the careful selection of methods that ensure the most adequate application of the model.
... These concerns are especially acute in South Florida (Koch et al., 2015;Obeysekera et al., 2015) as saltwater encroachment has been shown to decrease rootbiomass production, organic carbon storage, and rates of vertical sediment accumulation Servais et al., 2018;Wilson et al., 2018). Prior to this investigation, South Florida historical rates of SLR were reported as 2.4 mm yr − 1 at Key West (Maul and Martin, 2015) and ~ 4.5 mm yr − 1 at Virginia Key (pre-2006) (Wdowinski et al., 2016). More recently, the rate of SLR has been reported as 6.3 mm yr − 1 at Key West (2003West ( − 2012 (Breithaupt et al., 2017) and between 5.9 mm yr − 1 (2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015) and 9 mm yr − 1 (post 2006) at Virginia Key by Park and Sweet (2015) and Wdowinski et al. (2016), respectively. ...
... Prior to this investigation, South Florida historical rates of SLR were reported as 2.4 mm yr − 1 at Key West (Maul and Martin, 2015) and ~ 4.5 mm yr − 1 at Virginia Key (pre-2006) (Wdowinski et al., 2016). More recently, the rate of SLR has been reported as 6.3 mm yr − 1 at Key West (2003West ( − 2012 (Breithaupt et al., 2017) and between 5.9 mm yr − 1 (2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015) and 9 mm yr − 1 (post 2006) at Virginia Key by Park and Sweet (2015) and Wdowinski et al. (2016), respectively. The 6-9 mm yr − 1 rates of sea-level rise detected in south Florida since 2003 are significantly higher than the 3.2-3.7 mm yr − 1 global mean sea level rise rate calculated for the same time period (e.g., Masson-Delmotte et al., 2021). ...
Analysis of four South Florida tide gauges, with records ranging from 27 to 116 yrs., indicate the average rate of sea-level rise has accelerated from 3.9 mm yr⁻¹ (1900–2021) to 6.5 mm yr⁻¹ (2000−2021), and 9.4 mm yr⁻¹ over the past decade. Future rates are forecast to accelerate over the duration of this century. A predictive conceptual framework (model) was developed in which the resilience of South Florida mangrove plant communities is solely a function of the rate of sea-level rise and vertical sediment accumulation. The model was verified using historical (e.g., 1900–2021) and recent (e.g., 2000–2021) sediment accumulation rate data derived using three different methodological approaches. Results indicate by 2040–2050 South Florida mangrove plant communities, already subjected to the destabilizing effects of accelerating sea-level rise for decades, will begin a widespread conversion to estuarine conditions. This will initially trigger the formation and expansion of inundation ponds, as is already occurring in the study area. By the end of this century, most mangrove forested areas will be submerged. The loss of other coastal wetlands (e.g., brackish marsh) is also likely because their rates of sediment accumulation are lower than mangrove. The findings of this study are consistent with other resilience projections that have been conducted in South Florida and at the global scale. Several knowledge gaps were identified which must be filled to improve confidence in subsequent forecasts and the outcome of mitigation efforts undertaken to enhance resilience. These include the lack of (1) sediment accumulation data representative of transitional and freshwater wetlands, (2) a robust understanding of post-depositional processes (e.g., compaction) that can compromise resilience through shallow (~1 m) subsidence, and (3) recent sediment accumulation data necessary to determine how South Florida coastal wetlands have responded to a sustained acceleration in the rate of sea-level rise over the last decade.
... Older stormwater networks were designed to accommodate conditions at the time of their construction under the assumption that future conditions and variability would be similar to those in the past, but climate change has invalidated this assumption (Milly et al., 2008). Relative sea level rise in some coastal areas of the US has increased mean sea level by up to a foot since the 1960s (Eggleston & Pope, 2013;Zervas, 2009), so many coastal stormwater networks are increasingly inundated by typical high tide water levels (i.e., mean high water) or rising groundwater levels (Rotzoll & Fletcher, 2013;Sadler et al., 2020;Shen et al., 2019;Su et al., 2020;Wdowinski et al., 2016). Stormwater network inundation (also known as "tailwater condition") reduces how well the system drains during storm events (Shen et al., 2019;Wahl et al., 2015), and recurrent stormwater network inundation by saltwater also corrodes stormwater infrastructure (Bjerklie et al., 2012), promotes saltwater intrusion to groundwater (Su et al., 2020), and can mobilize fecal bacteria from co-located sanitary sewer lines (Su et al., 2020). ...
... Inundation of underground stormwater networks has been reported in multiple cities in the US (Hino et al., 2019;Sadler et al., 2020;Shen et al., 2019;Wdowinski et al., 2016), but a broad characterization of stormwater network inundation has not been conducted. Most research on coastal urban flooding focuses on compound flooding (i.e., elevated receiving water levels combined with precipitation), but most of these studies focus on small areas or specific extreme storm events to recreate real-world flooding conditions using hydrodynamic models (Gallien et al., 2014;Hasan Tanim & Goharian, 2020;Sadler et al., 2020;Shen et al., 2019). ...
Stormwater infrastructure can manage precipitation‐driven flooding when there are no obstructions to draining. Coastal areas increasingly experience recurrent flooding due to elevated water levels from storms or tides, but the inundation of coastal stormwater infrastructure by elevated water levels has not been broadly assessed. We conservatively estimated stormwater infrastructure inundation in municipalities along the Atlantic United States coast by using areas of high‐tide flooding (HTF) on roads as a proxy. We also modeled stormwater infrastructure inundation in four North Carolina municipalities and measured infrastructure inundation in one of the modeled municipalities. Combining methodologies at different scales provides context and allows the scope of stormwater infrastructure inundation to be broadly estimated. We found 137 census‐designated urban areas along the Atlantic coast with road area impacted by HTF, with a median percent of total road area subject to HTF of 0.16% (IQR: 0.02%–0.53%). Based on 2010 census block data, the median number of people per urban area that live in census blocks with HTF on roads was 1,622 (IQR: 366–5,779). In total, we estimate that over 2 million people live in census blocks where HTF occurs on roadways along the US Atlantic coast. Modeling results and water level measurements indicated that extensive inundation of underground stormwater infrastructure likely occurs at water levels within the mean tidal range. These results suggest that stormwater infrastructure inundation along the US Atlantic coast is likely widespread, affects a large number of people, occurs frequently, and increases the occurrence of urban flooding.
... The rate of global eustatic SLR is currently about 3.6 mm year −1 (Oppenheimer et al. 2019) and faster rates are forecast towards the end of this century (Sweet et al. 2017). In South Florida, the historical rate of SLR is reported as 2.4 mm year −1 at Key West (Maul and Martin 2015) and~4.5 mm year −1 at Virginia Key (pre-2006) (Wdowinski et al. 2016). More recently, the rate of SLR has been reported as 6.3 mm year −1 at Key West (2003-2012) (Breithaupt et al. 2017) and between 5.9 mm year −1 (2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015) and 9 mm year −1 (post 2006) at Virginia Key by Park and Sweet (2015) and Wdowinski et al. (2016), respectively. ...
... In South Florida, the historical rate of SLR is reported as 2.4 mm year −1 at Key West (Maul and Martin 2015) and~4.5 mm year −1 at Virginia Key (pre-2006) (Wdowinski et al. 2016). More recently, the rate of SLR has been reported as 6.3 mm year −1 at Key West (2003-2012) (Breithaupt et al. 2017) and between 5.9 mm year −1 (2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015) and 9 mm year −1 (post 2006) at Virginia Key by Park and Sweet (2015) and Wdowinski et al. (2016), respectively. This has been accompanied by saltwater encroachment into freshwater environments, as locally documented by Ross et al. (2000) and Gaiser et al. (2006). ...
Mangroves can store more sediment organic carbon (SOC) than freshwater and salt marshes. Understanding how mangroves have responded to historical sea-level rise (SLR) is fundamental to assessing their resilience and capacity to store carbon as SLR accelerates. We quantified landscape-level temporal and spatial trends in historical coastal wetland sediment accumulation and associated SOC content (i.e., storage) along coastal-to-inland gradients in Southeast Florida. The observed trends were transgressive and attributed to the historical rise in sea level. Our results indicate an overall significant increase in the SOC content of the historic wetland sediment succession caused by the vertical accumulation and landward migration of carbon-rich mangrove-dominated plant communities (mean = 0.08 g cm−3) into and over carbon-poor wet prairie plant communities (mean = 0.02 g cm−3). The observed historical increase in SOC is predicted to diminish over time as the difference between rates of SLR and vertical sediment accumulation increases and because the landward migration of mangrove-dominated plant communities is now obstructed by a shore-parallel flood-control levee. These results are likely to unfold in other low-latitude coastal wetlands where they are sandwiched between rising seas and an urbanized landscape.
... These concerns are especially acute in South Florida (Koch et al., 2015;Obeysekera et al., 2015) as saltwater encroachment has been shown to decrease rootbiomass production, organic carbon storage, and rates of vertical sediment accumulation Servais et al., 2018;Wilson et al., 2018). Prior to this investigation, South Florida historical rates of SLR were reported as 2.4 mm yr − 1 at Key West (Maul and Martin, 2015) and ~ 4.5 mm yr − 1 at Virginia Key (pre-2006) (Wdowinski et al., 2016). More recently, the rate of SLR has been reported as 6.3 mm yr − 1 at Key West (2003West ( − 2012 (Breithaupt et al., 2017) and between 5.9 mm yr − 1 (2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015) and 9 mm yr − 1 (post 2006) at Virginia Key by Park and Sweet (2015) and Wdowinski et al. (2016), respectively. ...
... Prior to this investigation, South Florida historical rates of SLR were reported as 2.4 mm yr − 1 at Key West (Maul and Martin, 2015) and ~ 4.5 mm yr − 1 at Virginia Key (pre-2006) (Wdowinski et al., 2016). More recently, the rate of SLR has been reported as 6.3 mm yr − 1 at Key West (2003West ( − 2012 (Breithaupt et al., 2017) and between 5.9 mm yr − 1 (2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015) and 9 mm yr − 1 (post 2006) at Virginia Key by Park and Sweet (2015) and Wdowinski et al. (2016), respectively. The 6-9 mm yr − 1 rates of sea-level rise detected in south Florida since 2003 are significantly higher than the 3.2-3.7 mm yr − 1 global mean sea level rise rate calculated for the same time period (e.g., Masson-Delmotte et al., 2021). ...
... Deterioration of environmental conditions combined with elevated population growth increases the risk of structural damages in coastal communities. Wdowinski et al. (2016) [6] analyzed the frequency of flooding occurrences in Miami Beach, Florida and concluded that rain-induced and tide-induced events increased by more than 33% and 400%, respectively, between 1998 and 2013, causing extensive property damages. McAlpine and Porter (2018) [7] projected the annual cost of tidal flooding at around $3.71 on each square foot of living area in the Miami-Dade area, Florida, which caused a total of $465 million in lost property values between 2005 and 2016. ...
... Deterioration of environmental conditions combined with elevated population growth increases the risk of structural damages in coastal communities. Wdowinski et al. (2016) [6] analyzed the frequency of flooding occurrences in Miami Beach, Florida and concluded that rain-induced and tide-induced events increased by more than 33% and 400%, respectively, between 1998 and 2013, causing extensive property damages. McAlpine and Porter (2018) [7] projected the annual cost of tidal flooding at around $3.71 on each square foot of living area in the Miami-Dade area, Florida, which caused a total of $465 million in lost property values between 2005 and 2016. ...
Accelerated coastal erosion and elevated risks of flooding due to global warming put enormous burden on the ecosystems and economic health of coastal communities. Optimal policies to lessen these negative impacts require an estimation of their costs and benefits. The aim of this paper is to calculate the costs of beach erosion and flood risk through the valuation of property prices in Hilton Head Island, a barrier island located in South Carolina, USA. Spatial lag hedonic pricing was introduced in order to account for spatial autocorrelation in the dataset. The results show that properties that are located within the zone of high, or very high, flood risk experience a 15.6% reduction in value. The implicit price of being located close to an eroded beach is approximately 26% of the price of an oceanfront property. However, this negative impact on property value diminishes with distance from the shoreline.
... Communities, as well as economic and environmental sectors in low elevation and highly populated areas of Miami-Dade County are increasingly exposed and vulnerable to both minor and extreme coastal flooding due to SLR(Genovese et al. 2011;Spanger-Siegfried et al. 2017).To date, evaluation of SLR impacts in Miami-Dade County has mostly emphasized extreme flooding driven by hurricanes and tropical cyclones (i.e., storm surge)(Genovese et al. 2011; Klima et al. 2012;Genovese and Green 2015). However, only a few studies have investigated the effects of SLR on chronic risk from minor flooding(Wdowinski et al. 2016;Moftakhari et al. 2017a). Recurrent minor flooding is already emerging as a new issue in some parts of the county (e.g., the City of Miami Beach). ...
... An increasing proportion of the world's population lives by the coast; worldwide, over 680 million people live in low-lying coastal areas (Oppenheimer et al., 2019). In the US, over 3.7 million people live on land within 1m of high tide, while in Australia 85% of the total population lives within 50 kilometers of the coast (Abel et al., 2011;DCC, 2009;Wdowinski et al., 2016). Canada, which has the longest coastline in the world, has 6.5 million people living along its coastlines (Lemmen & Warren, 2016;Mercer Clarke et al., 2016). ...
Coastal systems provide multiple ecosystem services like food, accommodation, recreation, and protection, to name a few (Loomis & Paterson, 2014). Abundant in life supporting services, coastal system have historically been attractive to people, although overuse of these services have taken the systems to the brink of degradation. With an increasing amount of the world’s population living in coastal areas (over 680 million people, Oppenheimer et al., 2019) it is important that the limits of coastal ecosystems, especially for supporting the growing human population, are known. In addition to anthropogenic demand, external drivers like climate change related events, including sea level rise, storm surge, and floods, are accelerating coastal ecological degradation. Thus, coastal system management needs effective strategies for maintaining life supporting capacity while coping with, and protecting coastal systems from, coastal hazards (Nicholls & Cazenave, 2010).
Carrying capacity measurement is one of the commonly used tools for estimating the capacity of an ecosystem to accommodate human demand for ecological resources and services. In terms of coastal areas, carrying capacity measures are shaped by the interactions between finite resources, services available from a coastal system, and the consumers (humans and non-humans alike) of these resources (del Monte-Luna, Brook, Zetina-Rejoin, & Escalona, 2004). Methods for measuring carrying capacity vary across the different sectors, such as aquaculture and tourism, involved in coastal systems. These methods also outline how carrying capacity and coastal systems are conceptualized. These sectoral and conceptual differences can result in confusion when interpreting the outcomes of the measurements and lead to uncoordinated efforts among policy makers, practitioners, and other actors involved in coastal system management. Some efforts have been made to overcome the confusion but there is still work to be done. To fill this gap, this report intends to provide a conceptual, methodological, and analytical overview of the current understanding and utilization of carrying capacity measurements in various coastal systems worldwide. A better understanding of how carrying capacity is measured and interpreted, especially as a tool for developing sustainable management and policy recommendations, will benefit coastal system management.
This report intends to address two specific research question. The first asks how various conceptual and methodological tools (e.g., criteria, indicators, and frameworks) are used for measuring coastal carrying capacities and how they are applied to help decision making for sustainable coastal system management. This question helps illuminate the conceptual, methodological, and sectoral variabilities of carrying capacity measures while exploring the challenges of assembling different measures in a cross-sectoral decision-making process. Second, this report also examines what actions are being suggested in existing literature for coastal management systems to maintain coastal biophysical, social, and ecological carrying capacities. This question aims to explain how different carrying capacity measures across sectors can be assembled to shift from sector-based to cross-sectoral decision-making. Therefore, the outcomes of this question propose contributions to system-based decision making for coastal sustainability and ways to overcome the methodological and conceptual ambiguities of carrying capacity measures.
The results of the review include three key findings. First, the temporal, spatial, ecological, and sectoral distribution of the studies are highly skewed, with most studies having been conducted in the last decade (as of 2020), in developed nations (not including the cluster conducted in China), often focusing on beach ecosystems, and mostly encompassing the tourism sector. Results indicate that the conceptual and methodological foundations of coastal carrying capacity measures are still under development, which could be considered an opportunity to improve this tool to be more system-based and policy oriented. Moreover, developing countries, where some of the most resource abundant coastal ecosystems are located, do not devote much attention to measuring coastal carrying capacity. Furthermore, there appears to be a lack of studies conducted in non-beach/tourist coastal ecosystems and in urban areas, in spite of the growing interest in coastal studies in those areas.
Second, conceptual and methodological ambiguities need to be addressed in carrying capacity measurement for sustainable coastal system management, as otherwise these ambiguities may stand in the way of cohesive coastal policy and practices. This study notes that there remain conceptual ambiguities in defining ‘coast’ and ‘coastal carrying capacity’, with most of the studies reviewed having not explicitly defined coast and carrying capacity. This lack of clarity is a barrier to incorporating the outcomes of the studies in policy making. Also, there is a need to improve conceptual and methodological tools for measuring carrying capacity to create a list of system-based indicators that can be used across sectors and carrying capacity categories.
Third, policy recommendations should include operational strategies for attaining sustainability, which many of the studies in this report lack or do not expand on enough. Building off this, carrying capacity measurement tools should consider more action-oriented policy recommendations for maintaining coastal ecological integrity, which would allow them to be more widely applied in policy and practice by decision-makers, managers, and practitioners.
The report concludes that carrying capacity should be widely adopted for coastal system management, as it can provide specific conservation targets for policy makers. However, carrying capacity measures could be better understood and applied if their conceptual and methodological ambiguities were clarified. This study also demonstrates the need for future research into carrying capacity measures across sectors to bridge knowledge-practice gaps. Specifically, it is noted that further research on carrying capacity measures should be system-based and should aim to contribute to the development of management strategies for applying policy making and management practices.
This study adapted a methodological framework developed by Koutsos et al. (2019) to conduct a scoping review focused on coastal carrying capacity. After defining specific research questions, a set of key words were selected to identify relevant literature. The identified studies were screened using a number of inclusion and exclusion criteria, which yielded 76 studies. The final set of selected studies was analyzed using a set of analytical criteria including spatial, temporal, ecological, sectoral, conceptual methodological (e.g., categories, indicators, and frameworks), analytical, and policy recommendation aspects. This report includes a detailed description of the process and results from the research studies that were selected and analyzed in the scoping review, followed by a discussion of the findings, areas for further study, knowledge mobilization activities, and scholarly communication and knowledge dissemination.
... The cumulative cyclone impact on annual litter deposition (i.e., EXS) and export must be considered in the long term (Fig. 1), not only in terms of cyclone frequency and intensity, but also with its interaction with sea level rise (SLR). Currently, South Florida's SLR rate is among the highest over the last decade in the northern Gulf of Mexico (9 ± 4 mm year −1 ; 3 × the average pre-2006 rate, 3 ± 2 mm year −1 ) 103,104 . It is expected that this rate will continue to increase because of climate change causing significant alterations in regional hydrology and local hydroperiod in our mangrove sites 32,101 . ...
Mangroves are the most blue-carbon rich coastal wetlands contributing to the reduction of atmospheric CO2 through photosynthesis (sequestration) and high soil organic carbon (C) storage. Globally, mangroves are increasingly impacted by human and natural disturbances under climate warming, including pervasive pulsing tropical cyclones. However, there is limited information assessing cyclone’s functional role in regulating wetlands carbon cycling from annual to decadal scales. Here we show how cyclones with a wide range of integrated kinetic energy (IKE) impact C fluxes in the Everglades, a neotropical region with high cyclone landing frequency. Using long-term mangrove Net Primary Productivity (Litterfall, NPPL) data (2001–2018), we estimated cyclone-induced litterfall particulate organic C (litter-POC) export from mangroves to estuarine waters. Our analysis revealed that this lateral litter-POC flux (71–205 g C m⁻² year⁻¹)—currently unaccounted in global C budgets—is similar to C burial rates (69–157 g C m⁻² year⁻¹) and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC, 61–229 g C m⁻² year⁻¹) export. We proposed a statistical model (PULITER) between IKE-based pulse index and NPPL to determine cyclone’s impact on mangrove role as C sink or source. Including the cyclone’s functional role in regulating mangrove C fluxes is critical to developing local and regional climate change mitigation plans.
... The increasing global population, rising living standards, shifting consumption patterns, and the expansion of irrigated agriculture are the primary drivers of the rising global demand for freshwater [1,7]. Future climate change projections foresee an increased global pressure on water resources; as a result, the salinity level of seawater is constantly increasing, making flooding more likely and thereby dwindling the availability of freshwater [8,9]. Accordingly, the water crisis was identified as the most serious global risk for the next decade [10]. ...
The water crisis is identified as the most serious global risk for the coming decade. Distilled water is one of the on-demand elements in academic laboratories; however, water scarcity may eventually affect the education sector, necessitating the implementation of new policies. Human behavior, awareness, knowledge, and opinion is having an impact on water management; accordingly, a questionnaire was purposely designed and validated to assess these variables in a Malaysian public university regarding the use of non-distilled water produced by the distillation process. An exploratory factor analysis yielded four factors: “concept of green laboratory and water”, “usage of non-distilled water”, “knowledge about water distillation”, and “behavior related to water conservation”. Using the Mann–Whitney U test to compare laboratory and non-laboratory users’ responses, the variables “Knowledge”, “Behavior”, and “Opinion” revealed statistically significant differences, with laboratory users scoring higher in all four variables. Employing the Kruskal–Wallis H test in an occupation-based comparison among laboratory users, and with an additional variable “Practice”, showed that “Lecturer” has the highest mean rank for “Awareness”, “Behavior”, and “Opinion”, while “Laboratory Assistant” has the highest mean rank for “Knowledge”. This study provides a rationale analysis for future insights to educate faculty members about the reuse of non-distilled water sustainably.
... Over the past several decades, floods have become a growing problem throughout the world [158,159]. This has been especially problematic among low-lying areas of the planet, including large river deltas [160][161][162][163][164], and thought to be associated with rising sea levels [165][166][167]. It has been estimated that roughly 40-50% of environmental disasters are due to floods, and there is also a significant correlation between flooding and wind disasters [165][166][167][168]. From IHS perspective, floods may lead to drinking water contamination and associated increases in water borne and diarrheal diseases [169,170]. ...
Climate change (CC) can be defined as a long-term shift in global, continental, and/or local climate patterns. Although many equate CC to the rise in global temperatures, the issue is much more complicated and involves a large number of interconnected factors. Among some of the less discussed considerations of CC are its effects on a broad range of public health issues, including the emergence of novel infectious diseases, the encroachment of infectious disease vectors into previously unaffected geographic distributions, and crop failures resulting in threats of malnutrition and mass migration. This chapter will be devoted to key issues related to CC in the context of international health security (IHS).
Keywords: climate change, emerging infectious diseases, global warming, hunger, human migrations, invasive species
... As noted in Breithaupt et al. (2017), the mean rate at the Key West tide gauge was 6.3 ± 0.5 mm yr −1 from 2003 to 2012, substantially greater than the cumulative Key West trend (1910-2019) of 2.5 ± 0.2 mm yr −1 (NOAA National Ocean Service 2020). Additionally, Wdowinski et al. (2016) observed mean rates at Virginia Key that increased from 3 ± 2 mm yr −1 prior to 2006 to 9 ± 4 mm yr −1 after 2006. Our hypothesis that increasing rates of SLR are a likely driver of increasing OC burial in south Florida is supported by these data and analyses from the literature. ...
Breithaupt et al. (2020) investigated why rates of organic carbon (OC) burial in coastal wetlands appear to increase over the past ~120 years. After comparing dating methods and applying biogeochemical analyses, we concluded that neither dating method nor carbon degradation contribute to the observed trend. Rather, we concluded that OC burial has increased in the past century. Parkinson’s (2021) Comment disagrees with our conclusion, contending that: 1) use of a density correction to account for soil auto-compaction is a flawed methodology that artificially shortens a core’s length, 2) there is limited evidence for an acceleration in the regional sea-level rise (SLR) rate, and 3) vertical accretion rates in previous papers by Breithaupt et al. (2014; 2017) are lower than the regional mean rate of SLR and are not to be believed as these wetlands should have converted to open water by now. We reject these contentions because: 1) no density correction was applied to the cores in this study, 2) local tide gauge records and analyses in the literature support an increase in SLR rates coinciding with the timeframe of our OC burial records, and 3) Parkinson’s comparison of the 100-yr mean rate of SLR neglects temporal variability and uncertainties in the long-term sea-level record, as well as biophysical feedbacks between wetland surface elevation and SLR. Here, we provide detailed responses to Parkinson’s contentions and establish the importance of differentiating operational definitions of OC burial and accretion to clarify why an auto-compaction correction is not applicable for OC burial measurements.
... Miami is racially segregated, marked by stark income inequalities and severely exposed to hurricanes and flooding (S. D. Brody et al., 2007;Collins & Grineski, 2017;Wdowinski et al., 2016). It is also characterized by unusual patterns of exposure to floods, making it a stimulating case study for our approach. ...
In a rapidly changing world, what is today an unprecedented extreme may soon become the norm. As a result, extreme-related disasters are expected to become more frequent and intense. This will have widespread socio-economic consequences and affect the ability of different societal groups to recover from and adapt to rapidly changing environmental conditions. Therefore, there is the need to decipher the relation between genesis of unprecedented events, accumulation and distribution of risk, and recovery trajectories across different societal groups. Here, we develop an analytical approach to unravel the complexity of future extremes and multiscalar societal responses—from households to national governments and from immediate impacts to longer term recovery. This requires creating new forms of
knowledge that integrate analyses of the past—that is, structural causes and political processes of risk accumulation and differentiated recovery trajectories—with plausible scenarios of future environmental
extremes grounded in the event-specific literature. We specifically seek to combine the physical characteristics of the extremes with examinations of how culture, politics, power, and policy visions shape
societal responses to unprecedented events, and interpret the events as social-environmental extremes. This new approach, at the nexus between social and natural sciences, has the concrete advantage of
providing an impact-focused vision of future social-environmental risks, beyond what is achievable within conventional disciplinary boundaries. In this paper, we focus on extreme flooding events and the societal responses they elicit. However, our approach is flexible and applicable to a wide range of extreme events. We see it as the first building block of a new field of research, allowing for novel and integrated theoretical
explanations and forecasting of social-environmental extremes.
... Additionally, Dahl et al. (2017) find that by 2045, several Gulf Coast locations that historically experienced almost no tidal flooding could experience up to 60 tidal floods per year, especially along the Texas coast. Increased tidal flooding due to sea level rise could thus threaten lowlying Gulf Coast cities in future decades, something that is already affecting cities like Miami Beach, FL (Wdowinski et al., 2016). In fact, climate models project that sea levels in the Gulf of Mexico could rise anywhere from 0.7 m (2.30 ft; IPCC, 2013) to up to 3 m (10 ft; NOAA SLR Viewer, 2020) by 2100, an increase that would submerge major cities like Miami, FL and New Orleans, LA. ...
A four-chapter summary of the climate of the Gulf of Mexico Region. Chapter 1 covers the average state of the region's climate. Chapter 2 covers observed changes in the region's climate since 1980. Chapter 3 covers projected changes out to 2100 according to the NA-CORDEX multi-model ensemble, and provides an introduction to the principle of climate modeling. Chapter 4 consists of 3-page summaries of climate hazards to which the Gulf of Mexico is vulnerable.
... There is increased concern relative to the growing urbanization of the world's lowlying deltaic coastal regions and the related coastal hazards [1][2][3] due to persistent and possibly accelerating sea level rise (SLR). Additionally, local relative SLR can be significantly modulated in coastal regions by vertical ground motions (i.e., subsidence phenomena) either due to natural processes (e.g., global isostatic adjustment, tectonics, sediment consolidation and compaction, and upstream sediment load reduction) [4][5][6][7] or induced/influenced by human activities (e.g., groundwater extraction [8], land reclamation [9], building construction, and consolidation [10]). ...
Non-climate-related anthropogenic processes and frequently encountered natural hazards exacerbate the risk in coastal zones and megacities and amplify local vulnerability. Coastal risk is amplified by the combination of sea level rise (SLR) resulting from climate change, associated tidal evolution, and the local sinking of land resulting from anthropogenic and natural hazards. In this framework, the authors of this investigation have actively contributed to the joint European Space Agency (ESA) and the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST) Dragon IV initiative through a project (ID. 32294) that was explicitly designed to address the issue of monitoring coastal and delta river regions through Earth Observation (EO) technologies. The project’s primary goals were to provide a complete characterization of the changes in target scenes over time and provide estimates of future regional sea level changes to derive submerged coastal areas and wave fields. Suggestions are also provided for implementing coastal protection measures in order to adapt and mitigate the multifactor coastal vulnerability. In order to achieve these tasks, well-established remote sensing technologies based on the joint exploitation of multi-spectral information gathered at different spectral wavelengths, the exploitation of advanced Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (DInSAR) techniques for the retrieval of ground deformations, the realization of geophysical analyses, and the use of satellite altimeters and tide gauge data have effectively been employed. The achieved results, which mainly focus on selected sensitive regions including the city of Shanghai, the Pearl River Delta in China, and the coastal city of Saint Petersburg in Europe, provide essential assets for planning present and future scientific activities devoted to monitoring such fragile environments. These analyses are crucial for assessing the factors that will amplify the vulnerability of low-elevation coastal zones.
... The concurrence of waves with spring high tides and long fetching strong winds are often devastating in the highly populated coastal cities (Lyddon et al. 2019). Moreover, studies by Palmer et al. (2019) on the rise of global mean rate of sea level rise (SLR) indicate that it is increasing at a rate of 0.084 ± 0.025 mm yr −2 and the coastal flooding in different regions is mainly due to the SLR that affects often the nearly 10% of the Earth's population living along the coast (Wdowinski et al. 2016). Recent research has confirmed that the Eastern tropical and North Eastern Pacific sea level is increasing due to ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation for the past two decades (Hamlington et al. 2016). ...
This study aims to report the short-term coastline dynamics and inundation limits of coastal cities along the Eastern Pacific due to the sea swell events that occurred during April to May 2015. The multi-temporal satellite datasets from Landsat such as Enhanced Thematic Mapper (L7 ETM+) and Operational Land Imager/Thermal Infrared Sensor (L8 OLI/TIRS) of different periods before and after the swell events were used to identify the shoreline changes. The satellite images were pre-processed using ERDAS imagine 9.2, and the coastline was digitized in ArcGIS 10.4.1 for ten cities spread across from Mexico to Chile (in Pacific coast) using the spectral water indices, and the shoreline change rate and erosion/accretion pattern at each tran-sect were estimated using the statistical parameters embedded in Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS). The maximum erosion and accretion were observed in El Salvador (268 m) and Huatulco (Mexico) (115 m), respectively. Likewise, the maximum inundation was observed in El Salvador with 268 m and Acapulco (Mexico) with 254 m, and the tide gauge data suggest a possible relation to the bathymetry and the geomor-phological conditions of the coast. Overall, the results indicate that the Eastern Pacific Ocean side sea swell events has led to extreme coastal flooding in recent years due to the increase in the mean sea level and the unpredictable variation in El Niño/Southern Oscillation events.
... Sea level highs at Key West between September and November also corresponded with the perigean tides. The decreasing variability between the low and high monthly sea level observed since 2008 agrees with modeling results of a slowing Gulf Stream current reported by Wdowinski et al. (2016). Higher minimum sea levels will facilitate saltwater intrusion during the dry period extending residence time of salinity and marine nutrients in the coastal habitats. ...
Coastal areas are increasingly vulnerable to the effects of sea level rise, and the coastal Everglades is no exception. The Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) was launched in 2000 to restore the natural flow regime to the freshwater marshes of the Everglades. However, sea level rise has been affecting coastal habitats with increasing water levels and residence times of both salinity and marine nutrients. Here, we combined empirical data of water levels and sea levels with modeled CERP restoration scenarios. Water levels and fresh-to-marine head differences (FMHDs) were used as primary indicators of the vulnerability of the Everglades coastal areas to sea level rise and evaluate the relative benefits of restoration to these habitats. Four model scenarios were considered: a simulation of existing conditions baseline (ECB), full CERP implementation (CERP0), Central Everglades Planning Project with the Everglades Agricultural Area Reservoir (CEPPP), and a simulation of the natural/pre-drainage system scenario (NSM). Results demonstrated the differential vulnerability of coastal areas to sea level rise. The CEPPP restoration scenario achieved at least 60% and 30% of the full CERP freshwater and FMHD benefits in Shark River Slough, the largest freshwater flow-way in ENP, and Taylor Slough, the smaller flow-way in southeastern ENP, respectively. Hence, integration of FMHD metric in restoration efforts is essential to ensure restoration benefits extend beyond the freshwater marshes and improve coastal habitats.
... Overall, sea level rise can double the frequency of coastal flooding in the next few decades (Mousavi et al., 2011;Woodruff et al., 2013;Karegar et al., 2017;Vitousek et al., 2017). For example, due to sea level rise, there is increased coastal flooding in California (Heberger et al., 2011;Garcia and Loáiciga, 2014), Mekong Delta (Takagi et al., 2015), Italian coastal plains (Rinaldo et al., 2008;Antonioli et al., 2017), Mediterranean (Reimann et al., 2018), the US East Coast (Ezer and Atkinson, 2014;Dahl et al., 2017), Miami Beach, Florida (Wdowinski et al., 2016), Latin America (Reguero et al., 2015), China (Fang et al., 2016). Sea level rise is found to be compounded with fluvial flooding using a bivariate flood hazard assessment (Moftakhari et al., 2017a). ...
Compound extremes pose immense challenges and hazards to communities, and this is particularly true for compound hydrometeorological extremes associated with deadly floods, surges, droughts, heat waves. To mitigate and better adapt to compound hydrometeorological extremes, we need to better understand the state of knowledge of such extremes. Here we review the current advances in understanding compound hydrometeorological extremes: compound heat wave and drought (hot-dry), compound heat stress and extreme precipitation (hot-wet), cold-wet, cold-dry and compound flooding. We focus on the drivers of these extremes and methods used to investigate and quantify their associated risk. Overall, hot-dry compound extremes are tied to subtropical highs, blocking highs, atmospheric stagnation events, and planetary wave patterns, which are modulated by atmosphere-land feedbacks. Compared with hot-dry compound extremes, hot-wet events are less examined in the literature with most works focusing on case studies. The cold-wet compound events are commonly associated with snowfall and cold frontal systems. Although cold-dry events have been found to decrease, their underlying mechanisms require further investigation. Compound flooding encompasses storm surge and high rainfall, storm surge and sea level rise, storm surge and riverine flooding, and coastal and riverine flooding. Overall, there is a growing risk of compound flooding in the future due to changes in sea level rise, storm intensity, storm precipitation, and land-use-land-cover change. To understand processes and interactions underlying compound extremes, numerical models have been used to complement statistical modeling of the dependence between the components of compound extremes. While global climate models can simulate certain types of compound extremes, high-resolution regional models coupled with land and hydrological models are required to simulate the variability of compound extremes and to project changes in the risk of such extremes. In terms of statistical modeling of compound extremes, previous studies have used empirical approach, event coincidence analysis, multivariate distribution, the indicator approach, quantile regression and the Markov Chain method to understand the dependence, greatly advancing the state of science of compound extremes. Overall, the selection of methods depends on the type of compound extremes of interests and relevant variables.
... Our observations of the Key Largo Cotton Mouse's response to flooding could have important conservation implications. As sea levels continue to rise, flood events may become more frequent, more severe, and longer in duration, and significant increases have already been reported in southern Florida (Wdowinski et al. 2016). Most land area in the Florida Keys is below 2 m in elevation, and ~75% of Key Largo is below 1.5 m in elevation and experiences occasional tidal inundation (Ross et al. 1992). ...
... Hence, we consider coastal inundation in estuaries, harbours, bays, and tidal rivers, rather than open coasts. Frequent 'nuisance' or 'minor' coastal inundation has been observed at many locations around the world in recent years (Habel et al. 2020;Hague et al. 2019Hague et al. , 2020Moore and Obradovich 2020;Hino et al. 2019;Smith and Juria 2019;Thompson et al. 2019;Ford et al. 2018;Jacobs et al. 2018;Dahl et al. 2017;Sweet et al. 2016;Strauss et al. 2016;Wdowinski et al. 2016;Sweet and Park 2014). Documented or modelled quantifiable socio-economic impacts from these events have resulted from flooding of roads (Kasmalkar et al. 2020;Jacobs et al. 2018), carparks (Hino et al. 2019) and houses (Hanslow et al. 2018). ...
Sea-level rise is causing coastal inundation events in estuaries, harbours, bays, and tidal rivers to happen more often as predictable daily high and low tides reach higher levels. This can lead to coastal inundation happening under benign weather conditions, as flood thresholds are exceeded due to tides alone without the influence of storm surges or other phenomena. As such, changes in frequency of this 'tide-only' inundation may be a useful metric to quantify the role that sea-level rise plays in modulating the risk of coastal inundation from high still water levels. Here we present a conceptual model for 'tide-only' inundation and propose a practical methodology to formulate tide-only inundation statistics: estimates, historical trends, and future projections. This enables this emerging natural hazard to be fully incorporated into new and existing coastal risk assessment frameworks and considered in coastal management and planning strategies at local and national levels. Further, it leads to a framework that can quantify the role that tides play in coastal flooding as sea levels rise.
... No data reported in year 1993. As recognized previously(Wdowinski et al., 2016), mean relative sea-level rise accelerated in about 2006 to 9.0 mm yr − 1 . ...
The tragic collapse of the Surfside condominium was a bellwether moment in coastal zone management because it forever changed the way we think about risk and vulnerability of the built and human environment. Shortly afterwards, questions emerged regarding whether the structural integrity of the building was compromised by a rise in sea level caused by climate change. Historical trends in the elevation of sea-level, King Tides, and hurricane storm surge quantified between 1994 and 2020 reveal the number of times sea level rose to elevations above the building's basement floor increased from an average of 244 per year between 1994 and 2006 to 636 from 2007 to 2020. This is attributed to a 3-fold increase in the rate of relative sea-level rise that occurred after 2006. Conditions of increasing soil saturation caused by rising seas is likely on most other barrier islands. It follows the context in which we think about managing climate change in the coastal zone must be expanded to consider existing and future below-ground conditions, which to date has largely been overlooked by coastal zone management practitioners.
... Given the combination of increased high tide flooding in coastal Florida (Hino et al. 2019;Sweet et al. 2017;Wdowinski et al. 2016) and the absence of a mandatory flood risk disclosure statute, how do real estate agents in South Florida rank susceptibility to flooding among the considerations they believe that buyers con-sider when searching for a home? We presented the survey respondents with ten neighborhood qualities and asked them to indicate the importance of each in the search process. ...
Requirements for licensure as a real estate agent have become increasingly demanding over the past decades, involving the acquisition of knowledge and skills that make real estate agents invaluable to both home sellers and homebuyers. The National Association of Realtors® has set a stringent code of ethics for its members. In addition, Florida statutes require the disclosure of “all known facts that materially affect the value of residential property and are not readily observable.” Empirical research has demonstrated the important influence that real estate agents have on buyers, and therefore an assessment of their evaluation of trends in the property market are crucial for an understanding of current practice and trends.
... EMD is a commonly used data-driven method for studying sea level trends and oceanic oscillations (Breaker & Ruzmaikin, 2011;Chen et al., 2014Chen et al., , 2017Wdowinski et al., 2016). The basic idea is that any time series is a composition of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs). ...
Abstract Adaptive and accurate trend estimation of the sea level record is critically important for characterizing its nonlinear variations and its study as a consequence of anthropogenic climate change. Sea level change is a nonstationary or nonlinear process. The present modeling methods, such as least squares fitting, are unable to accommodate nonlinear changes, including the choice of a priori information to help constrain the modeling. All these problems affect the accuracy and adaptability of nonlinear trend estimation. Here, we propose a method called EMD‐SSA, that effectively combines adaptive empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and singular spectrum analysis (SSA). First, the sea level change time series is decomposed by EMD to estimate the intrinsic mode functions. Second, the periodic or quasiperiodic signals in the intrinsic mode functions can be determined using Lomb‐Scargle spectral analysis. Third, the numbers of the identified periodicities/quasiperiodicities are used as embedding dimensions of SSA to identify possible nonlinear trends. Then, the optimal nonlinear trend with the largest absolute Mann‐Kendall rank is selected as the final trend for the sea level change. Based on a comprehensive experiment using simulated sea level change time series, we concluded that the EMD‐SSA method can adaptively provide better estimate of the nonlinear trend in a realistic sea level change time series with consistency or high accuracy. We suggest that EMD‐SSA can be used not only to robustly extract nonlinear trends in sea level data, but also for trends in other geodetic or climatic records, including gravity, GNSS observed displacements, and altimetry observations.
... Thus, soil accretion is controlled by OM accumulation rather than mineral matter (Chen and Twilley 1999b;McKee et al. 2007;Smoak et al. 2013), especially in the forest interior zone (Breithaupt et al. 2017). Allochthonous sediment input still is critical in south Florida due to the high recurrence of tropical storms (Smith III et al. 2009;Rivera-Monroy et al. 2019) and the rapid increase in SLR during the last decade (Wdowinski et al. 2016). Hurricane-derived sediment inputs composed primarily of minerals may increase the overall elevation of south Florida mangroves, ultimately contributing to long-term net soil elevation gain that reduces their vulnerability to SLR (Castañeda-Moya et al. 2010Feher et al. 2020). ...
To determine whether mangrove soil accretion can keep up with increasing rates of sea level rise, we modeled the theoretical, steady-state (i.e., excluding hurricane impacts) limits to vertical soil accretion in riverine mangrove forests on the southwest coast of Florida, USA. We measured dry bulk density (BD) and loss on ignition (LOI) from mangrove soils collected over a period of 12 years along an estuarine transect of the Shark River. The plotted relationship between BD and LOI was fit to an idealized mixing model equation that provided estimates of organic and inorganic packing densities in the soils. We used these estimates in combination with measures of root production and mineral deposition to calculate their combined contribution to steady-state, vertical soil accretion. On average, the modeled rates of accretion (0.9 to 2.4 mm year−1) were lower than other measured rates of soil accretion at these sites and far less than a recent estimate of sea level rise in south Florida (7.7 mm year−1). To date, however, no evidence of mangrove “drowning” has been observed in this region of the Everglades, indicating that assumptions of the linear accretion model are invalid and/or other contributions to soil accretion (e.g., additional sources of organic matter; feedbacks between physical sedimentation processes and biological responses to short-term environmental change) make up the accretion deficit. This exercise highlights the potential positive impacts of hurricanes on non-steady-state soil accretion that contribute to the persistence of neotropical mangroves in regions of high disturbance frequency such as the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean region.
... Our results show that future climate hazards can cause significant impacts on the transportation system in Miami-Dade County. These impacts will increasingly apparent in the southeast coasts of Florida (Wdowinski et al. 2016). The methodology developed in this study presents an alternative approach to evaluate systemwide impacts of storm surge and SLR on transportation systems, which could improve data application in local and state transportation plans. ...
Recent climatic disasters have shown the vulnerability of transportation infrastructures against natural hazards. To understand the risk of coastal hazards on urban travel activities, this study presents an activity-based modeling approach to evaluate the impacts of storm surge on the transportation network under sea-level rise in Miami-Dade County, FL. A Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based algorithm is applied to generate population attributes and travel diaries in the model simulation. Flooding scenarios in 2045 are developed based on different adaptation standards under the 100-year storm surge and population projections from the land-use conflict identification strategy (LUCIS) model. Our analysis indicates that about 29.3% of the transportation infrastructure, including areas of the US No. 1 highway, roadways in the south and southwest of the County, and bridges connecting Miami Beach and Miami-Dade County, will be damaged under the storm surge when a low-level adaptation standard is chosen. However, the high-level adaptation standard will significantly reduce the vulnerable infrastructures to 12.4%. Furthermore, the total increased travel time of the low-level adaptation standard could be as high as twice of the high-level adaptation standard during peak morning hours. Our model results also reveal that the average increased travel time due to future storm surge damage ranges between 14.2 and 62.8 minutes per trip.
... Humans have difficulties keeping track of baselines (Pauly, 1995;Moore et al., 2019). The slow rise in mains sea-level is a perfect example, e.g., flooding during king-tides in Miami becomes normal (Wdowinski et al., 2016). Subsequently, a sense of urgency and need-for-change is lost, and the public and coordinated response is hampered. ...
This study explores how experiences from the current pandemic can inform societal responses to future climate change. To that end, an established philosophical concept of geoscientific insights (geoethics) is utilized to advice on governance under systemic uncertainty that, in turn, is a critical feature of complex-adaptive dynamics. Illustrative examples are the Covid-19 health pandemic and the impact of the global sea-level rise to threatening heights in the early 22nd Century. The term “geoethics” labels an emergent geo-philosophical school of thought rooted in geoscience expertise. When combined with contemporary political philosophies, geoethics leads to a geo-philosophical framework that can support adaptation to complex-adaptive dynamics by favoring multi-agent and context-depending processes (e.g., learning-by-doing). The proposed geo-philosophical framework merges geoethics with the political philosophies of H. Jonas (1903–1993), L. Kohlberg (1927–1987), and M. Bunge (1919–2020). These contemporary philosophies emphasize as relevant for achieving a modern caretaking society, respectively, “the hierarchy of societal coordination processes,” “the intergenerational responsibility of agents of change,” and “the balancing of individual wellbeing (happiness) and duties.” When these philosophies are combined with geoethics, a logical approach can be derived for policy design and decision-making. It emphasizes the “autonomy” (of the human agent) combined with a civic culture that favors “trustworthiness,” “scientific culture.” and a “culture of inclusive justice.” We argue that governance of adaptation to complex-adaptive dynamics (e.g., climate change impact) can be informed by the geo- and society-centric perspectives of the proposed geo-philosophical framework. It can address “Human Earth Nexus” governance issues using the knowledge of both natural and social sciences and applying the lens of geoethical thinking.
... Storm surge can travel inland for miles and contaminate freshwater resources with saltwater (Miami-Dade County Board 2016). Studies show that sea level rise is likely to increase flood and saltwater risks in Florida's coastal areas in the future (Frazier et al. 2010;Wdowinski et al. 2016). ...
Hurricanes are the most powerful and largest weather event happening in the air, affecting almost everything in their paths. Their strong winds and heavy rain can directly impact both inland and coastal areas in short periods, usually around a day. Understanding hurricane effects is the first step to preparing for hurricanes. The effects of hurricanes can be comprehensive and long-lasting, even permanent, at the spatial scales of a single molecule to whole ecosystems. Much effort has been made to come up with ways to accurately predict, effectively prepare for, and quickly recover from hurricanes, but their sizes and complexity make this difficult. Multidisciplinary collaborations are required to improve our understanding of hurricanes. Here, we review basic facts of hurricanes and their effects in Florida and speculate on how they might affect Florida’s agriculture and natural resources. Examples and speculations provided in this article demonstrate how weather, agriculture, environment, and ecosystem are connected to each other across spatial scales ranging from microorganisms to an entire landscape.
... With the continuous change of climate, the rise of the sea level has led to various geological disasters worldwide, and their frequency may increase in the future. Some impacts of sea-level rise are well known, such as the submergence and flooding of coastal land [10][11][12], the destruction of wetlands, salt marshes, and mangroves [13][14][15], increased storm surges [16,17], seawater intrusion [18,19] and the destruction of port and harbor facilities [20]. Besides this, sea-level rise can also induce seismicity, seismic liquefaction and submarine mass failure, which are rarely discussed comprehensively in the literature. ...
With the rapid development of urbanization around the world, the sea-level-rise problem is gaining more and more attention in the 21st century. Sea-level rise is the result of a combination of climate-related factors, structural factors and human activities. Recent studies related to the contributions of these factors to sea-level rise are reviewed and analyzed in this paper. The results suggest that the melting of glaciers and ice sheets have contributed the most to sea-level rise and will continue to be the dominant factor in sea-level rise for the following decades. As sea-level rise becomes an increasingly serious problem, geological disasters related to sea-level rise are also gaining more attention. To better understand the effect of sea-level rise on geological disasters, relevant issues including storm surges, seawater intrusion, the loss of coastal wetland, seismicity, seismic liquefaction and submarine mass failure are further reviewed and highlighted. In response to the risks of those disasters caused by sea-level rise, some disaster mitigation measures are proposed, and in the end, the quantitative disaster assessment concept based on resilience is introduced to the coastal urban system, to assess its ability to resist and recover from geological disasters due to the sea-level rise.
... South Florida is home to the largest tract of continuous mangrove forests in the United States, of which 75% (144,447 ha) of the country's mangroves occur within Everglades National Park alone 12 . Human development has hemmed in much of the remaining mangroves, limiting landward migration, and altered coastal hydrology, increasing vulnerability to sea level rise, salt water intrusion, and ponding 13,14 . These chronic stressors are compounded by strong and sustained winds, storm surge, and prolonged flooding during hurricane events, pushing mangroves to the brink of collapse 7,10 . ...
Mangroves buffer inland ecosystems from hurricane winds and storm surge. However, their ability to withstand harsh cyclone conditions depends on plant resilience traits and geomorphology. Using airborne lidar and satellite imagery collected before and after Hurricane Irma, we estimated that 62% of mangroves in southwest Florida suffered canopy damage, with largest impacts in tall forests (>10 m). Mangroves on well-drained sites (83%) resprouted new leaves within one year after the storm. By contrast, in poorly-drained inland sites, we detected one of the largest mangrove diebacks on record (10,760 ha), triggered by Irma. We found evidence that the combination of low elevation (median = 9.4 cm asl), storm surge water levels (>1.4 m above the ground surface), and hydrologic isolation drove coastal forest vulnerability and were independent of tree height or wind exposure. Our results indicated that storm surge and ponding caused dieback, not wind. Tidal restoration and hydrologic management in these vulnerable, low-lying coastal areas can reduce mangrove mortality and improve resilience to future cyclones. Mangroves are adapted to cope with tropical storms, but might be threatened by rising frequency and intensity of these events. Here the authors document one of the largest mangrove diebacks on record following Hurricane Irma in Florida, and show a greater role of storm surge and ponding rather than wind as a mechanism for mangrove dieback.
The effects of modern liberal capitalism such as climate change, environmental degradation, and infrastructural fragility are seen as requiring the recalibration of modern governmental frameworks. This chapter traces two tendencies within this attempt to rethinking government for the Anthropocene and explores the perceived problems of modern government that they address. First, it briefly discusses proposals for planetary earth systems governance and efforts to maintain global safe operating spaces. Second, it shows that some of the most profound governmental transformations are being forged more concretely at the scale of the city. Cities are seen as both drivers of climate change as well as especially promising sites for building resilience to it due to their ability to respond quickly via situated experiments that incorporate diverse publics and nature. The chapter concludes by discussing the resilience assemblage stitched together across these two tendencies and the interlinked, eco-technical-cybernetic vision of life forwarded therein.
Geographic Information System (GIS) is been widely used in mapping and analysis. The spatial analyst is one of the GIS tools which help ni producing meaningful map and decision making. It allows an extensive analysis to be done in various phenomena such as natural phenomena and human activities. This study focuses on the ability of spatial analyst in impactful human activities such as drug and crime activities. Drug addiction frequently relating to the crime rate increment as the addicts have high potential to commit in criminal activities. Hence, this study is to analyze and understand the reliance on drug addiction and criminal activities tabulation. The spatial analyst used to identify the drug addict matters include cases, gender, race, age, education and types of drug taken. Two districts in Kedah which are Kota Setar and Pokok Sena have been considered as the main study area as both of the districts hold a relatively high number for drug addict and crime cases compared to other districts in Kedah. The data acquired from AADK Kota Setar and Pokok Sena for drug information and IPD Kota Setar for criminal cases from 2015 until 2017. Inverse Distance Weightage (IDW) and Standard Deviational Ellipse (SDE) is used to characterize the movement and directional of criminal activities distribution. The rings obtained from SDE later was examined to understand the pattern based on drug addict statistic by district and criminal activities distribution which were mapped using GIS. Then, the correlation between the drug addict and criminal activities distribution is validated. The applications of GIS facilitate processing and analyzing drug-related data effectively. The map view for analyzing the relevant drug case data is also more interesting and understandable as well as displaying results in a form that is easy to interpret. The results were beneficial for authorities in monitoring and controlling both of the respective cases and plan the mitigation procedure to overcome these issues. Keywords: Spatial Analysis, SDE, drug addict mapping
Coastal locations around the United States, particularly along the Atlantic coast, are experiencing recurrent flooding at high tide. Continued sea-level rise (SLR) will exacerbate the issue where present, and many more locations will begin to experience recurrent high-tide flooding (HTF) in the coming decades. Here we use established SLR scenarios and flooding thresholds to demonstrate how the combined effects of SLR and nodal cycle modulations of tidal amplitude lead to acute inflections in projections of future HTF. The mid-2030s, in particular, may see the onset of rapid increases in the frequency of HTF in multiple US coastal regions. We also show how annual cycles and sea-level anomalies lead to extreme seasons or months during which many days of HTF cluster together. Clustering can lead to critical frequencies of HTF occurring during monthly or seasonal periods one to two decades prior to being expected on an annual basis. High-tide flooding (HTF) is more likely with sea-level rise. Projections along the United States coastline, considering likely sea-level rise and tidal amplitude cycles, suggest increased HTF event clustering in time and rapid increases in annual HTF frequency as early as the mid-2030s.
Critical urban thinkers often imagine urbanisation and the Anthropocene as inevitably being companion processes. But is planetary urbanisation the necessary telos and spatial limit of life in the Anthropocene? Is urban resilience the final form of urban responses to climate change? Will (or should) the urban (as either spatial form or process) survive the upending impacts of climate change or adaptation? Or, if the Anthropocene is a time of deep environmental and epistemological upheaval without historical precedent, might even more recently created spatial concepts of the planetary urban condition themselves soon be out of date? This article raises these questions for urban scholars via critical engagement with a proposal to retire Miami – considered climate change ‘ground zero’ in the US and doomed by rising seas – and repurpose it as fill for ‘The Islands of South Florida’: a self-sufficient territory of artificial high-rises delinked from global infrastructural networks. This vision of an ‘urbicidal Anthropocene’, the article argues, suggests that the injunction subtending planetary urbanisation work – to relentlessly question inherited spatial frameworks – has not been taken far enough. Still needed is Anthropocene critical urban theory, to consider urban forms and processes emerging via climate change and adaptation, but also how such mutations may point beyond the theoretical and spatial bounds of the contemporary urban condition itself.
A regional numerical ocean model of the Gulf Stream (GS) and the US East Coast was used to conduct sensitivity experiments of the dynamic response to temperature anomalies originated at different Atlantic locations. In a series of experiments, temperature anomalies were injected into the model domain through inflow boundary conditions at either the Florida Current (FC), the Slope Current (SC), or the Sargasso Sea (SS), while holding all other inflows/outflows unchanged. The strong currents and meso-scale variability of the GS system result in fast transport of anomalies throughout the model domain and immediate response within days. During a period of 60 days, remote temperature anomalies of ± 2 °C induced about 5–12 cm change in coastal sea level, about 0.5–1.0 ms−1 change in velocity, and about 30–50 km shift in the GS position, and a significant increase in kinetic energy of the whole GS system. Warm anomaly entering into the GS from the south through the FC had the strongest impact, strengthening the GS and temporally lowering coastal sea level by as much as ~ 10 cm, compared with coastal sea level drop of ~ 2–3 cm when the same warm anomaly was coming from the SS. Cold or warm anomalies coming from the north through the SC caused a large shift in the GS path, which moved onshore in the Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB) and offshore in the South Atlantic Bight (SAB). Observations taken in 2017 when 3 hurricanes disrupted the GS flow show similar links between temperature anomalies, the GS, and coastal sea level, as in the idealized model simulations. The results demonstrated how temperature anomalies due to storms or uneven climate warming can cause variations on the coast and increased kinetic energy near western boundary currents. Since coastal sea level is positively correlated with temperature, but negatively correlated with the strength of the GS, the non-linear combination of the two factors can result in unexpected spatiotemporal variability in coastal sea level. The study provides better understanding of how remote signals affect the coast.
The water table is one of the primary components of the coastal hydrological system, being regulated by the precipitation input and action of meteo-oceanographic forcing. The monitoring of the water table amplitude is crucial in a permeable substrate, such as low-lying sandy coasts. In scenarios of sea-level rise (SLR), these environments will be impacted by the direct action of marine flooding and, indirectly, by the rising of the groundwater. In 2018, seasonal monitoring of the water table was carried out at Cassino beach, located on the south Brazilian coast. The Cassino beach is an exposed coast dominated by waves, inserted in a low elevation barrier (Holocene lagoon-barrier system), with a humid subtropical climate and the action of extratropical cyclogenesis. The objectives were to determine the water table variation throughout the year and to identify the main forces that act in the high-frequency fluctuations. The low-cost electronic sensor systems Arduino-based were installed in tubular wells for monitoring. In parallel, indirect surveys were performed using the GPR method. The results demonstrated the significant contribution of the infiltration and recharge pulses in the shallow freshwater lens. The contributions of energy waves and winds in the S quadrant were identified, promoting the stacking of water on the shore. The results also suggest a relationship between the water table depth and the morphology of ridges and swales. The projections performed with the groundwater level from SLR scenarios on the IPCC showed a higher susceptibility of the Cassino beach to direct and indirect floods for the second half of this century. The intensification and increase of the frequency of the storms caused by climate change may result in a situation of urban infrastructure collapse, with the progressive occurrence of compound flooding (rainfall and storm surge).
Background
The repercussions of climate change threaten the population with an increased prevalence of extreme climate events. We explored the impact of climate change induced sea level rise (SLR) and tropical cyclone (TC) exposure on mental illness symptom prevalence.
Methods
Using three datasets, TC exposure scores were calculated for each subject to determine how exposure affects posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), anxiety, and major depressive disorder (MDD) symptom prevalence. Inundation mapping of various SLR and storm surge (SS) scenarios were performed for the susceptible region of Miami-Dade and Broward counties to determine the population impact of flooding.
Results
We found an elevated risk of mental illness symptoms from exposure to more high- intensity TCs and identified demographic variables that may contribute to this risk. Furthermore, inundation mapping demonstrated severe and widespread impact of SLR and SS on the mental health of communities.
Limitations
This study did not include data directly measuring comorbidity, resilience, preparedness, or ability to adapt to climate change. Also, multiple imputation using chained equations may have been imperfect. Furthermore, there is uncertainty in predicting and mapping SLR and TC intensity, which limits complete confidence in our SS predictions.
Conclusion
The impacts of climate change have been frequently studied in terms of physical health, natural disaster prevalence, and economic impacts, but rarely on mental health burden. However, it is vital that national, state, and local governments develop and deploy plans to address mental health needs along with expenditures for protecting infrastructure, the economy, and physical health from the combined effects of SLR and climate change-induced natural disasters.
Sukcesem rynkowym jest między innymi usatysfakcjonowanie klienta. Czynnikiem,
który ma znaczący wpływ na świadomość klienta jest jakość nabywanych przez niego
produktów żywnościowych. Jakość bywa różnie postrzegana i oceniana subiektywnie.
Do klienta, według jego postrzegania jakości, należy podjęcie decyzji o wyborze i zakupie
danego produktu żywnościowego. Dbanie przez sprzedawców o jakość oferowanych
produktów żywnościowych klientowi to dbanie również o jego zdrowie, a nawet życie.
Celem opracowania jest, zaprezentowanie, w ujęciu teoretycznym wybranych
aspektów decydujących o wyborze i spożyciu produktów żywnościowych o wysokiej
jakości początkowej. Ponadto przedstawienie niektórych, opisanych w literaturze,
problemów związanych z marnowaniem żywności. Zastosowano metodę krytycznego
przeglądu źródeł dostępnej literatury zarówno krajowej, jak i zagranicznej.
published at: 10.3389/fpos.2022.819930
This study explores how experiences from the current pandemic can inform societal responses to future climate change. To that end, an established philosophical concept of geoscientific insights (geoethics) is utilized to advise on governance under systemic uncertainty that, in turn, is a critical feature of complex-adaptive dynamics. Illustrative examples are the Covid-19 health pandemic and the impact of the global sea-level rise to threatening heights in the early 22nd Century.
The term ‘geoethics’ labels an emergent geo-philosophical school of thought that is rooted in geoscience expertise. When combined with contemporary political philosophies, geoethics leads to a geo-philosophical framework that can support adaptation to complex-adaptive dynamics by favoring multi-agent and context-depending processes (e.g., learning-by-doing).
The proposed geo-philosophical framework merges geoethics with the political philosophies of Kohlberg, Jonas, and Bunge. These contemporary philosophies emphasize as relevant for achieving a caretaking society, respectively, ‘the hierarchy of societal coordination processes’, ‘the intergenerational responsibility of agents of change’, and ‘the balancing of individual well-being (happiness) and duties’. When these philosophies are combined with geoethics, a logical approach can be derived for policy design and decision-making. It emphasizes the ‘autonomy’ (of the human agent) combined with a civic culture that favors ‘trustworthiness’, ‘scientific culture’, and a ‘culture of inclusive justice’. We argue that governance of adaptation to complex-adaptive dynamics (e.g., climate change impact) can be informed by the geo- and society-centric perspectives of the proposed geo-philosophical framework. It can address 'Human Earth Nexus' governance issues using the knowledge of both natural and social sciences and applying the lens of geoethical thinking.
(accepted for publication, 1st Feb. 2022)
Many coastal communities have to adapt in some form to mean sea-level rise (MSLR). This involves planning and determining the best path to protect lives, property, and infrastructure. Currently, planning for sea-level change is left to states and local communities to outline how to mitigate or adapt to changing sea level. Many communities independently develop their sea-level mitigation plans based on publicly available information and might benefit from a nationally coordinated effort to offer expert information for better planning. Analyzing the current state and local strategies provides a baseline for understanding broader sea-level mitigation needs. Findings from this analysis show that many communities in southeastern states are using similar methods (i.e., natural infrastructure, including land use and zoning and conservation) to prepare for sea-level rise (SLR), which suggests collaboration and communication among communities is a logical step to advance SLR planning. Looking specifically at coastline protection methods, current methods are geographically fragmented, which could impact their success. Additionally, SLR is not universally recognized as a hazard as 30% of plans analyzed did not mention SLR. This limited study conducted by a Hollings scholar during a summer internship reviews and categorizes the different sea-level plans of states, counties, and communities along the Gulf Coast up to North Carolina to determine how federal agencies can best assist local communities in SLR planning.
Naturally formed forest patches known as tree islands are found within lower-statured wetland matrices throughout the world, where they contrast sharply with the surrounding vegetation. In some coastal wetlands they are embedded in former freshwater marshes that are currently exposed to saltwater intrusion and mangrove encroachment associated with accelerating sea-level rise. In this study we resurveyed tree composition and determined environmental conditions in tree islands of the coastal Florida Everglades that
had been examined two decades earlier. We asked whether tree islands in this coastal transition zone were differentiated geomorphologically as well as compositionally, and whether favorable geomorphology enabled coastal forest type(s) to maintain their compositional integrity against rising seas. Patterns of variation in geomorphology and soils among forest types were evident, but were dwarfed by differences between forest and adjacent wetlands. Tree island surfaces were elevated by 12–44 cm, and 210Pb analyses indicated that their current rates of vertical accretion were more rapid than those of surrounding ecosystems. Tree island soils were deeper and more phosphorus-rich than in the adjoining matrix. Salinity decreased interiorward in both tree island and marsh, but porewater was fresher in forest than marsh in Mixed Swamp Forest, midway along the coastal gradient where tropical hardwoods were most abundant. Little decrease in the abundance of tropical hardwood species nor increase in halophytes was observed
during the study period. Our data suggest that geomorphological differences between organic tree island and marl marsh, perhaps driven by groundwater upwelling through more transmissive tree island soils, contributed to the forests’ compositional stability, though this stasis may be short-lived despite management efforts.
In general, a tourist depends on the physical printed map or Google Maps platform to look for attractions places in certain areas. Moreover, free interactive map sources are even available online for better geovisualization on tourism guide and mapping. This paper explores the existing free tools published in 2019 for automatic map generation via online on tourist attractions in Sabah. The methodology of this paper consists of five main steps namely preliminary study, data collection, secondary data validation, data processing, and results of the map generation. Eight existing websites providing free tourism platforms were explored and the website of orangesmile.com offers some automatic map features. The capabilities of seven free tools for auto-online thematic map-making were also explored by referring to the base map platform, cartographic elements, and additional
thematic information. The tool of mangomap.com uses the most approach towards automatic tourism map, but it still needs further improvement in terms of the location of tourist attractions, symbolization and cartography tools. Although there is a potential platform to create an automatic thematic map of tourism in the state of Sabah using available and free cartography sources, there are challenges in terms of automatic creation for data sources, symbolization, and editing process of thematic features
that need to be addressed.
Tuberculosis (TB) is still a prominent cause of death worldwide. Malaysia is no exception and is one of the countries which has recorded constant cases, especially in Selangor, Sabah and Sarawak. Undetected and missing TB group is one of the major causes of TB spread in the country and it will lead to fatality if not treated immediately. Therefore, the enhancement of the existing contact targeting method for the missing groups is a decisive aspect to identify infected areas and potential risk factors of TB cases. A geospatial based approach is proposed to identify hotspot areas of tuberculosis cases in
the district of Klang in Selangor by using geographical information system (GIS) approach. TB cases and based map of the 11 sub districts of Klang are main datasets used in this study. The TB risk map shows that most cases are focused in the central region of Klang. Sri Muda sub-district recorded the highest TB cases followed by Pelabuhan Klang and North Klang recorded the least number of cases. Although most cases are clustered in the common risk areas and factors such as in industrial zone with
high population areas, potential risk assessment of the local TB transmission need to be further scrutinised for an efficient intervention programme on the site.
Digitization of cartography hardcopy maps is the process of converting information into digital format. One of the techniques used to preserve hardcopy maps is through vectorization. It acts as
essential tool for transforming hardcopy maps into digital maps. The term of hardcopy map is referred to topographic maps which contain several elements of maps which include legend, title, north indicator, map frame, scale and geographic features which describe the characteristics of certain area such as contour lines, river, road, buildings or others. Preserving the hardcopy map by extracting the map information or geographic features through vector digitization is very crucial as the technology in mapping moving towards to digital maps. The vectorization process consists of several conventional techniques which require more effort, high cost and more time consume in digitizing activities among librarians. As the resolution, initiatives to create an automated procedure of digitization are introduced to overcome the feasible issues stated in this study. This mapping-based research is also mainly focused on possible challenges, and potentials towards realizing automated
digitization system in Malaysia.
While the UN recognizes the right of individuals “to take risks and make mistakes”, there are reasons to question whether this right can be universal. In the context of a changing climate, it is imperative that individuals have access to a safe and sustainable environment; yet we must ask if this covenant is broken if people choose to place themselves in harm’s way. In its first part, this paper explores outcomes of climate change denial, manifested as continued migration to dangerous locations, and skepticism for adaptive strategies. The second half of the paper explores how localities can create a false narrative concerning risks, and asks whether communities also have a right to make mistakes?
Water security is a multi-dimensional concept that varies across spatial scales. However, evaluations tend to focus on a single scale, which can suppress spatial heterogeneity and may not be relevant to the scale of decision making. We have identified four considerations encountered when selecting a scale in water security analyses: (1) the natural scale of phenomena, (2) the scale of data availability, (3) the decision-making scale, and (4) precision versus accuracy. To explore these considerations and how they may impede a multiscale analysis, we have created a water security index comprised of ten sub-indicators focused on system performance and outcomes. These sub-indicators are assembled across three scales: the United States of America and its constituent states and counties. A tiered multiscale analysis was difficult for several reasons, not least because of the challenges of obtaining requisite data. Nonetheless, the analysis has proved to be worthwhile by exposing areas of insecurity within the United States both at the state and county levels and by demonstrating greater spatial heterogeneity than might previously have been assumed. Combining the sub-national indicators with a more comprehensive national assessment can support decision making in terms of prioritization of policies and investments to target hotspots of insecurity.
Sea level rise and intense hurricane events make the East and Gulf Coasts of the United States increasingly vulnerable to flooding, which necessitates the development of computational models for accurate
water level simulation in these areas to safeguard the coastal wellbeing. With this regard, a model framework for water level simulation over coastal transition zone during hurricane events is built in this study. The model takes advantage of the National Water Model’s strength in simulating rainfall–runoff process, and D-Flow Flexible Mesh’s ability to support unstructured grid in hydrodynamic processes simulation with storm surges/tides information from the Advanced CIRCulation model. We apply the model on the Delaware Estuary to simulate extreme water level and to investigate the contribution of different physical components to it during Hurricane
Isabel (2003). The model shows satisfactory performance with an average Willmott skill of 0.965. Model results suggest that storm surge is the most dominating component of extreme water level with an average contribution of 78.16%, second by the astronomical tide with 19.52%. While the contribution of rivers is mainly restricted to
the upper part of the estuary upstream of Schuylkill River, local wind-induced water level is more pronounced with values larger than 0.2 m over most part of the estuary.
Due in large part to the advent of GPS, geodesy has become an important discipline within the Earth sciences. It is practiced and taught at a growing number of universities and research institutions worldwide, and provides the underpinnings for geographical information and locational awareness in modern life and commerce. The main advantage of GPS geodesy is the ability to directly measure very precise static, kinematic‚ and dynamic positions and displacements with respect to a global reference frame. GPS geodesy attracted the attention of geophysicists in the early 1980s when the potential for significant advances in the understanding of tectonic motion, crustal deformation‚ and geodynamics became apparent. Since then – something that was certainly not anticipated by the pioneers of the GPS in the 1970s – it has been applied to investigations of natural and anthropogenic processes and hazards, including earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanoes, the cryosphere, extreme weather, sea level rise, climate change‚ and hydrology. Contributing to its success have been advances in technology and the development of a global GPS infrastructure consisting of thousands of continuous stations spanning nearly all of the tectonic plate boundaries and hundreds of global stations to provide precise orbits and access to a global reference frame. GPS as a measuring tool is complementary to other terrestrial, ocean, atmospheric‚ and spaceborne instrumentation including seismometers, synthetic aperture radars, GPS/acoustic methods, gravimeters, radiometers, and UAV and LiDAR imaging. This chapter provides a historical perspective of GPS geodesy through to its current practice.
Human-induced climate change could cause global sea-level rise. Through
the dynamic adjustment of the sea surface in response to a possible
slowdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, a warming
climate could also affect regional sea levels, especially in the North
Atlantic region, leading to high vulnerability for low-lying Florida and
western Europe. Here we analyse climate projections from a set of
state-of-the-art climate models for such regional changes, and find a
rapid dynamical rise in sea level on the northeast coast of the United
States during the twenty-first century. For New York City, the rise due
to ocean circulation changes amounts to 15, 20 and 21cm for scenarios
with low, medium and high rates of emissions respectively, at a similar
magnitude to expected global thermal expansion. Analysing one of the
climate models in detail, we find that a dynamic, regional rise in sea
level is induced by a weakening meridional overturning circulation in
the Atlantic Ocean, and superimposed on the global mean sea-level rise.
We conclude that together, future changes in sea level and ocean
circulation will have a greater effect on the heavily populated
northeastern United States than estimated previously.
The Florida Current is the headwater of the Gulf Stream and is a component of the North Atlantic western boundary current from which a geostrophic balance between sea surface height and mass transport directly influence coastal sea levels along the Florida Straits. A linear regression of daily Florida Current transport estimates does not find a significant change in transport over the last decade; however, a nonlinear trend extracted from empirical mode decomposition (EMD) suggests a 3 Sv decline in mean transport. This decline is consistent with observed tide gauge records in Florida Bay and the straits exhibiting an acceleration of mean sea level (MSL) rise over the decade. It is not known whether this recent change represents natural variability or the onset of the anticipated secular decline in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC); nonetheless, such changes have direct impacts on the sensitive ecological systems of the Everglades as well as the climate of western Europe and eastern North America.
The Florida Current is the headwater of the Gulf Stream and is a component of the North Atlantic western boundary current from which a geostrophic balance between sea surface height and mass transport directly influence coastal sea levels along the Florida Straits. A linear regression of daily Florida Current transport estimates does not find a significant change in transport over the last decade, however, a nonlinear trend extracted from empirical mode decomposition suggests a 3 Sv decline in mean transport. This decline is consistent with observed tide gauge records in Florida Bay and the Straits, all exhibiting an acceleration of mean sea level rise over the decade. It is not known whether this recent change represents natural variability or the onset of the anticipated secular decline in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, nonetheless, such changes have direct impacts on the sensitive ecological systems of the Everglades as well as the climate of western Europe and eastern North America.
The ability of empirical mode decomposition (EMD) to extract multidecadal variability from sea level records is tested using three simulations: one based on a series of purely sinusoidal modes, one based on scaled climate indices of El Niño and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the final one including a single month with an extreme sea level event. All simulations include random noise of similar variance to high-frequency variability in the San Francisco tide gauge record. The intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) computed using EMD were compared to the prescribed oscillations. In all cases, the longest-period modes are significantly distorted, with incorrect amplitudes and phases. This affects the estimated acceleration computed from the longest periodic IMF. In these simulations, the acceleration was underestimated in the case with purely sinusoidal modes, and overestimated by nearly 100% in the case with prescribed climate modes. Additionally, in all cases, extra low-frequency modes uncorrelated with the prescribed variability are found. These experiments suggest that using EMD to identify multidecadal variability and accelerations in sea level records should be used with caution.
The global climate has been experiencing significant warming at an unprecedented pace in the past century(1,2). This warming is spatially and temporally non-uniform, and one needs to understand its evolution to better evaluate its potential societal and economic impact. Here, the evolution of global land surface air temperature trend in the past century is diagnosed using the spatial-temporally multidimensional ensemble empirical mode decomposition method(3). We find that the noticeable warming (>0.5 K) started sporadically over the global land and accelerated until around 1980. Both the warming rate and spatial structure have changed little since. The fastest warming in recent decades (>0.4 K per decade) occurred in northern mid-latitudes. From a zonal average perspective, noticeable warming (>0.2 K since 1900) first took place in the subtropical and subpolar regions of the Northern Hemisphere, followed by subtropical warming in the Southern Hemisphere. The two bands of warming in the Northern Hemisphere expanded from 1950 to 1985 and merged to cover the entire Northern Hemisphere.
.Recent studies identified the U.S. East Coast north of Cape Hatteras as a “hotspot” for accelerated sea level rise (SLR), and the analysis presented here show that the area is also a “hotspot for accelerated flooding”. The duration of minor tidal flooding (defined as 0.3 m above MHHW) has accelerated in recent years for most coastal locations from the Gulf of Maine to Florida. The average increase in annual minor flooding duration was ~20 hours from the period until 1970 to 1971–1990, and ~50 hours from 1971–1990 to 1991–2013; spatial variations in acceleration of flooding resembles the spatial variations of acceleration in sea level. The increase in minor flooding can be predicted from SLR and tidal range, but the frequency of extreme storm-surge flooding events (0.9 m above MHHW) is less predictable, and affected by the North Atlantic Oscillations (NAO). The number of extreme storm surge events since 1960 oscillates with a period of ~15-year and interannual variations in the number of storms is anti-correlated with the NAO index. With higher seas, there are also more flooding events that are unrelated to storm surges. For example, it is demonstrated that week-long flooding events in Norfolk, VA, are often related to periods of decrease in the Florida Current transport. The results indicate that previously reported connections between decadal variations in the Gulf Stream and coastal sea level may also apply to short-term variations, so flood predictions may be improved if the Gulf Stream influence is considered.
Sea level data from the Chesapeake Bay are used to test a novel new
analysis method for studies of sea level rise (SLR). The method, based
on Empirical Mode Decomposition and Hilbert-Huang Transformation,
separates the sea level trend from other oscillating modes and reveals
how the mean sea level changes over time. Bootstrap calculations test
the robustness of the method and provide confidence levels. The analysis
shows that rates of SLR have increased from ˜1-3 mm y-1 in the 1930s to ˜4-10 mm
y-1 in 2011, an acceleration of ˜0.05-0.10 mm y-2 that is larger than
most previous studies, but comparable to recent findings by Sallenger
and collaborators. While land subsidence increases SLR rates in the bay
relative to global SLR, the acceleration results support Sallenger et
al.'s proposition that an additional contribution to SLR from climatic
changes in ocean circulation is affecting the region.
Recent studies indicate that the rates of sea level rise (SLR) along the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast have accelerated in recent decades, possibly due to a slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and its upper branch, the Gulf Stream (GS). We analyzed the GS elevation gradient obtained from altimeter data, the Florida Current transport obtained from cable measurements, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, and coastal sea level obtained from 10 tide gauge stations in the Chesapeake Bay and the mid-Atlantic coast. An Empirical Mode Decomposition/Hilbert-Huang Transformation (EMD/HHT) method was used to separate long-term trends from oscillating modes. The coastal sea level variations were found to be strongly influenced by variations in the GS on timescales ranging from a few months to decades. It appears that the GS has shifted from a 6–8 year oscillation cycle to a continuous weakening trend since about 2004 and that this trend may be responsible for recent acceleration in local SLR. The correlation between long-term changes in the coastal sea level and changes in the GS strength was extremely high (R = −0.85 with more than 99.99% confidence that the correlation is not zero). The impact of the GS on SLR rates over the past decade seems to be larger in the southern portion of the mid-Atlantic Bight near Cape Hatteras and is reduced northward along the coast. The study suggests that regional coastal sea level rise projections due to climate change must take into account the impact of spatial changes in ocean dynamics.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jgrc.20091/full
Sound policies for protecting coastal communities and assets require good information about vulnerability to flooding. Here, we investigate the influence of sea level rise on expected storm surge-driven water levels and their frequencies along the contiguous United States. We use model output for global temperature changes, a semi-empirical model of global sea level rise, and long-term records from 55 nationally distributed tidal gauges to develop sea level rise projections at each gauge location. We employ more detailed records over the period 1979–2008 from the same gauges to elicit historic patterns of extreme high water events, and combine these statistics with anticipated relative sea level rise to project changing local extremes through 2050. We find that substantial changes in the frequency of what are now considered extreme water levels may occur even at locations with relatively slow local sea level rise, when the difference in height between presently common and rare water levels is small. We estimate that, by mid-century, some locations may experience high water levels annually that would qualify today as ‘century’ (i.e., having a chance of occurrence of 1% annually) extremes. Today’s century levels become ‘decade’ (having a chance of 10% annually) or more frequent events at about a third of the study gauges, and the majority of locations see substantially higher frequency of previously rare storm-driven water heights in the future. These results add support to the need for policy approaches that consider the non-stationarity of extreme events when evaluating risks of adverse climate impacts.
Settlements in coastal lowlands are especially vulnerable to risks resulting from climate change, yet these lowlands are densely settled and growing rapidly. In this paper, we undertake the first global review of the population and urban settlement patterns in the Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ), defined here as the contiguous area along the coast that is less than 10 metres above sea level. Overall, this zone covers 2 per cent of the world's land area but contains 10 per cent of the world's population and 13 per cent of the world's urban population. A disproportionate number of the countries with a large share of their population in this zone are small island countries, but most of the countries with large populations in the zone are large countries with heavily populated delta regions. On average, the Least Developed Countries have a higher share of their population living in the zone (14 per cent) than do OECD countries (10 per cent), with even greater disparities in the urban shares (21 per cent compared to 11 per cent). Almost two-thirds of urban settlements with populations greater than 5 million fall, at least partly, in the zone. In some countries (most notably China), urbanization is driving a movement in population towards the coast. Reducing the risk of disasters related to climate change in coastal settlements will require a combination of mitigation, migration and settlement modification.
Periods of high astronomically generated tides contribute to the occurrence of extreme sea levels. Over interannual time scales, two precessions associated with the orbit of the Moon cause systematic variation of high tides. A global assessment of when these tidal modulations occur allows for the prediction of periods when the enhanced risk of coastal flooding is likely in different parts of the world. This paper uses modeled tides to assess the influence of the 18.61 year lunar nodal cycle and the 8.85 year cycle of lunar perigee (which affects high tidal levels as a quasi 4.4 year cycle) on high tidal levels on a global scale. Tidal constituents from the TPXO7.2 global tidal model are used, with satellite modulation corrections based on equilibrium tide expectations, to predict multidecadal hourly time series of tides on a one-quarter degree global grid. These time series are used to determine the amplitude and phase of tidal modulations using harmonic analysis fitted to 18.61, 9.305, 8.85, and 4.425 year sinusoidal signals. The spatial variations in the range and phase of the tidal modulations are related to the global distribution of the main tidal constituents and tidal characteristics (diurnal or semidiurnal and tidal range). Results indicate that the 18.61 year nodal cycle has the greatest influence in diurnal regions with tidal ranges of >4 m and that the 4.4 year cycle is largest in semidiurnal regions where the tidal range is >6 m. The phase of the interannual tidal modulations is shown to relate to the form of the tide.
Because sea level could rise 1 m or more during the next century, it is important to understand what land, communities and assets may be most at risk from increased flooding and eventual submersion. Employing a recent high-resolution edition of the National Elevation Dataset and using VDatum, a newly available tidal model covering the contiguous US, together with data from the 2010 Census, we quantify low-lying coastal land, housing and population relative to local mean high tide levels, which range from ~0 to 3 m in elevation (North American Vertical Datum of 1988). Previous work at regional to national scales has sometimes equated elevation with the amount of sea level rise, leading to underestimated risk anywhere where the mean high tide elevation exceeds 0 m, and compromising comparisons across regions with different tidal levels. Using our tidally adjusted approach, we estimate the contiguous US population living on land within 1 m of high tide to be 3.7 million. In 544 municipalities and 38 counties, we find that over 10% of the population lives below this line; all told, some 2150 towns and cities have some degree of exposure. At the state level, Florida, Louisiana, California, New York and New Jersey have the largest sub-meter populations. We assess topographic susceptibility of land, housing and population to sea level rise for all coastal states, counties and municipalities, from 0 to 6 m above mean high tide, and find important threat levels for widely distributed communities of every size. We estimate that over 22.9 million Americans live on land within 6 m of local mean high tide.
Sea-level rise will increase the area covered by hurricane storm surges in coastal zones. This research assesses how patterns
of vulnerability to storm-surge flooding could change in Hampton Roads, Virginia as a result of sea-level rise. Physical exposure
to storm-surge flooding is mapped for all categories of hurricane, both for present sea level and for future sea-level rise.
The locations of vulnerable sub-populations are determined through an analysis and mapping of socioeconomic characteristics
commonly associated with vulnerability to environmental hazards and are compared to the flood-risk exposure zones. Scenarios
are also developed that address uncertainties regarding future population growth and distribution. The results show that hurricane
storm surge presents a significant hazard to Hampton Roads today, especially to the most vulnerable inhabitants of the region.
In addition, future sea-level rise, population growth, and poorly planned development will increase the risk of storm-surge
flooding, especially for vulnerable people, thus suggesting that planning should steer development away from low-lying coastal
and near-coastal zones.
The Earth has warmed at an unprecedented pace in the decades of the 1980s and 1990s (IPCC in Climate change 2007: the scientific
basis, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2007). In Wu et al. (Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 104:14889–14894, 2007) we showed that the rapidity of the warming in the late twentieth century was a result of concurrence of a secular warming
trend and the warming phase of a multidecadal (~65-year period) oscillatory variation and we estimated the contribution of
the former to be about 0.08°C per decade since ~1980. Here we demonstrate the robustness of those results and discuss their
physical links, considering in particular the shape of the secular trend and the spatial patterns associated with the secular
trend and the multidecadal variability. The shape of the secular trend and rather globally-uniform spatial pattern associated
with it are both suggestive of a response to the buildup of well-mixed greenhouse gases. In contrast, the multidecadal variability
tends to be concentrated over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere and particularly over the North Atlantic, suggestive of
a possible link to low frequency variations in the strength of the thermohaline circulation. Depending upon the assumed importance
of the contributions of ocean dynamics and the time-varying aerosol emissions to the observed trends in global-mean surface
temperature, we estimate that up to one third of the late twentieth century warming could have been a consequence of natural
variability.
KeywordsGlobal warming trend–Multidecadal variability–Ensemble empirical mode decomposition–IPCC AR4
A multi-dimensional ensemble empirical mode decomposition (MEEMD) for multi-dimensional data (such as images or solid with variable density) is proposed here. The decomposition is based on the applications of ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) to slices of data in each and every dimension involved. The final reconstruction of the corresponding intrinsic mode function (IMF) is based on a comparable minimal scale combination principle.
For two-dimensional spatial data or images, f(x,y), we consider the data (or image) as a collection of one-dimensional series in both x-direction and y-direction. Each of the one-dimensional slices is decomposed through EEMD with the slice of the similar scale reconstructed in resulting two-dimensional pseudo-IMF-like components. This new two-dimensional data is further decomposed, but the data is considered as a collection of one-dimensional series in y-direction along locations in x-direction. In this way, we obtain a collection of two-dimensional components. These directly resulted components are further combined into a reduced set of final components based on a minimal-scale combination strategy.
The approach for two-dimensional spatial data can be extended to multi-dimensional data. EEMD is applied in the first dimension, then in the second direction, and then in the third direction, etc., using the almost identical procedure as for the two-dimensional spatial data. A similar comparable minimal-scale combination strategy can be applied to combine all the directly resulted components into a small set of multi-dimensional final components.
For multi-dimensional temporal-spatial data, EEMD is applied to time series of each spatial location to obtain IMF-like components of different time scales. All the ith IMF-like components of all the time series of all spatial locations are arranged to obtain ith temporal-spatial multi-dimensional IMF-like component. The same approach to the one used in temporal-spatial data decomposition is used to obtain the resulting two-dimensional IMF-like components. This approach could be extended to any higher dimensional temporal-spatial data.
Global mean sea-level change has increased from a few centimetres per century over recent millennia to a few tens of
centimetres per century in recent decades. This tenfold increase in the rate of rise can be attributed to climate change
through the melting of land ice and the thermal expansion of ocean water. As the present warming trend is expected to
continue, global mean sea level will continue to rise. Here we review recent insights into past sea-level changes on decadal
to millennial timescales and how they may help constrain future changes. We find that most studies constrain global mean
sea-level rise to less than one metre over the twenty-first century, but departures from this global mean could reach several
decimetres in many areas. We conclude that improving estimates of the spatial variability in future sea-level change is an
important research target in coming years.
The current literature provides compelling evidence suggesting that an eddy-resolving (as opposed to eddy-permitting or eddy-parameterized) ocean component model will significantly impact the simulation of the large-scale climate, although this has not been fully tested to date in multi-decadal global coupled climate simulations. The purpose of this paper is to examine how resolved ocean fronts and eddies impact the simulation of large-scale climate. The model used for this study is the NCAR Community Climate System Model version 3. 5 (CCSM3. 5)-the forerunner to CCSM4. Two experiments are reported here. The control experiment is a 155-year present-day climate simulation using a 0. 5° atmosphere component (zonal resolution 0. 625 meridional resolution 0. 5°; land surface component at the same resolution) coupled to ocean and sea-ice components with zonal resolution of 1. 2° and meridional resolution varying from 0. 27° at the equator to 0. 54° in the mid-latitudes. The second simulation uses the same atmospheric and land-surface models coupled to eddy-resolving 0. 1° ocean and sea-ice component models. The simulations are compared in terms of how the representation of smaller scale features in the time mean ocean circulation and ocean eddies impact the mean and variable climate. In terms of the global mean surface temperature, the enhanced ocean resolution leads to a ubiquitous surface warming with a global mean surface temperature increase of about 0. 2 °C relative to the control. The warming is largest in the Arctic and regions of strong ocean fronts and ocean eddy activity (i. e., Southern Ocean, western boundary currents). The Arctic warming is associated with significant losses of sea-ice in the high-resolution simulation. The sea surface temperature gradients in the North Atlantic, in particular, are better resolved in the high-resolution model leading to significantly sharper temperature gradients and associated large-scale shifts in the rainfall. In the extra-tropics, the interannual temperature variability is increased with the resolved eddies, and a notable increases in the amplitude of the El Niño and the Southern Oscillation is also detected. Changes in global temperature anomaly teleconnections and local air-sea feedbacks are also documented and show large changes in ocean-atmosphere coupling. In particular, local air-sea feedbacks are significantly modified by the increased ocean resolution. In the high-resolution simulation in the extra-tropics there is compelling evidence of stronger forcing of the atmosphere by SST variability arising from ocean dynamics. This coupling is very weak or absent in the low-resolution model.
Global sea levels have risen through the 20th century. These rises will almost certainly accelerate through the 21st century
and beyond because of global warming, but their magnitude remains uncertain. Key uncertainties include the possible role of
the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets and the amplitude of regional changes in sea level. In many areas, nonclimatic
components of relative sea-level change (mainly subsidence) can also be locally appreciable. Although the impacts of sea-level
rise are potentially large, the application and success of adaptation are large uncertainties that require more assessment
and consideration.
Estimating and accounting for twentieth-century global mean sea level (GMSL) rise is critical to characterizing current and future human-induced sea-level change. Several previous analyses of tide gauge records--employing different methods to accommodate the spatial sparsity and temporal incompleteness of the data and to constrain the geometry of long-term sea-level change--have concluded that GMSL rose over the twentieth century at a mean rate of 1.6 to 1.9 millimetres per year. Efforts to account for this rate by summing estimates of individual contributions from glacier and ice-sheet mass loss, ocean thermal expansion, and changes in land water storage fall significantly short in the period before 1990. The failure to close the budget of GMSL during this period has led to suggestions that several contributions may have been systematically underestimated. However, the extent to which the limitations of tide gauge analyses have affected estimates of the GMSL rate of change is unclear. Here we revisit estimates of twentieth-century GMSL rise using probabilistic techniques and find a rate of GMSL rise from 1901 to 1990 of 1.2 ± 0.2 millimetres per year (90% confidence interval). Based on individual contributions tabulated in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this estimate closes the twentieth-century sea-level budget. Our analysis, which combines tide gauge records with physics-based and model-derived geometries of the various contributing signals, also indicates that GMSL rose at a rate of 3.0 ± 0.7 millimetres per year between 1993 and 2010, consistent with prior estimates from tide gauge records.The increase in rate relative to the 1901-90 trend is accordingly larger than previously thought; this revision may affect some projections of future sea-level rise.
[1] We examine long tide gauge records in every ocean basin to examine whether a quasi 60-year oscillation observed in global mean sea level (GMSL) reconstructions reflects a true global oscillation, or an artifact associated with a small number of gauges. We find that there is a significant oscillation with a period around 60-years in the majority of the tide gauges examined during the 20th Century, and that it appears in every ocean basin. Averaging of tide gauges over regions shows that the phase and amplitude of the fluctuations are similar in the North Atlantic, western North Pacific, and Indian Oceans, while the signal is shifted by 10 years in the western South Pacific. The only sampled region with no apparent 60-year fluctuation is the Central/Eastern North Pacific. The phase of the 60-year oscillation found in the tide gauge records is such that sea level in the North Atlantic, western North Pacific, Indian Ocean, and western South Pacific has been increasing since 1985–1990. Although the tide gauge data are still too limited, both in time and space, to determine conclusively that there is a 60-year oscillation in GMSL, the possibility should be considered when attempting to interpret the acceleration in the rate of global and regional mean sea level rise.
Recent flood disasters in the United States (2005, 2008, 2012); the Philippines (2012, 2013); and Britain (2014) illustrate how vulnerable coastal cities are to storm surge flooding (1). Floods caused the largest portion of insured losses among all catastrophes around the world in 2013 (2). Population density in flood-prone coastal zones and megacities is expected to grow by 25% by 2050; projected climate change and sea level rise may further increase the frequency and/or severity of large-scale floods (3–7).
Climate warming does not force sea-level rise (SLR) at the same rate
everywhere. Rather, there are spatial variations of SLR superimposed on
a global average rise. These variations are forced by dynamic processes,
arising from circulation and variations in temperature and/or salinity,
and by static equilibrium processes, arising from mass redistributions
changing gravity and the Earth's rotation and shape. These sea-level
variations form unique spatial patterns, yet there are very few
observations verifying predicted patterns or fingerprints. Here, we
present evidence of recently accelerated SLR in a unique 1,000-km-long
hotspot on the highly populated North American Atlantic coast north of
Cape Hatteras and show that it is consistent with a modelled fingerprint
of dynamic SLR. Between 1950-1979 and 1980-2009, SLR rate increases in
this northeast hotspot were ~ 3-4 times higher than the global average.
Modelled dynamic plus steric SLR by 2100 at New York City ranges with
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenario from 36 to 51cm (ref.
); lower emission scenarios project 24-36cm (ref. ). Extrapolations from
data herein range from 20 to 29cm. SLR superimposed on storm surge, wave
run-up and set-up will increase the vulnerability of coastal cities to
flooding, and beaches and wetlands to deterioration.
Impacts of ocean dynamics on spatial and temporal variations in sea level rise (SLR) along the U.S. East Coast are characterized by empirical mode decomposition analysis and compared with global SLR. The findings show a striking latitudinal SLR pattern. Sea level acceleration consistent with a weakening Gulf Stream is maximum just north of Cape Hatteras and decreasing northward, while SLR driven by multidecadal variations, possibly from climatic variations in subpolar regions, is maximum in the north and decreasing southward. The combined impact of sea level acceleration and multidecadal variations explains why the global mean SLR obtained from similar to 20 years of altimeter data is about twice the century-long global SLR obtained from tide gauge data. The sea level difference between Bermuda and the U.S. coast is highly correlated with the transport of the Atlantic Overturning Circulation, a result with implications for detecting past and future climatic changes using tide gauge data.
Comparisons of OSCAR satellite-derived sea surface currents with in situ data from moored current meters, drifters, and shipboard current profilers indicate that OSCAR presently provides accurate time means of zonal and meridional currents, and in the near-equatorial region reasonably accurate time variability (correlation = 0.5-0.8) of zonal currents at periods as short as 40 days and meridional wavelengths as short as 8°. At latitudes higher than 10° the zonal current correlation remains respectable, but OSCAR amplitudes diminish unrealistically. Variability of meridional currents is poorly reproduced, with severely diminished amplitudes and reduced correlations relative to those for zonal velocity on the equator. OSCAR's RMS differences from drifter velocities are very similar to those experienced by the ECCO (Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean) data-assimilating models, but OSCAR generally provides a larger ocean-correlated signal, which enhances its ratio of estimated signal over noise. Several opportunities exist for modest improvements in OSCAR fidelity even with presently available datasets.
Estimates of regional patterns of global sea level change are obtained from a 1° horizontal resolution general circulation model constrained by least squares to about 100 million ocean observations and many more meteorological estimates during the period 1993-2004. The data include not only altimetric variability, but most of the modern hydrography, Argo float profiles, sea surface temperature, and other observations. Spatial-mean trends in altimetric data are explicitly suppressed to isolate global average long-term changes required by the in situ data alone. On large scales, some regions display strong signals although few individual points have statistically significant trends. In the regional patterns, thermal, salinity, and mass redistribution contributions are all important, showing that regional sea level change is tied directly to the general circulation. Contributions below about 900 m are significant, but not dominant, and are expected to grow with time as the abyssal ocean shifts. Estimates made here produce a global mean of about 1.6 mm yr1, or about 60% of the pure altimetric estimate, of which about 70% is from the addition of freshwater. Interannual global variations may be dominated by the freshwater changes rather than by heating changes. The widely quoted altimetric global average values may well be correct, but the accuracies being inferred in the literature are not testable by existing in situ observations. Useful estimation of the global averages is extremely difficult given the realities of space-time sampling and model approximations. Systematic errors are likely to dominate most estimates of global average change: published values and error bars should be used very cautiously.
In addition to the global mean sea level rise, its local deviation is also very important in climate research. Currently, the sea level along the northeast coast of the United States is very low because of the low basin-mean sea level in the North Atlantic compared to the North Pacific, and the sharp sea level gradient across the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic Current. Here we analyze climate projections from a set of state-of-the-science climate models for regional sea level changes in the North Atlantic, and find a rapid dynamic sea level rise (relative to the global mean) on the northeast coast of the United States during the twenty-first century. For New York City, the dynamic sea level rise amounts to 15, 20 and 21 cm for scenarios with low, medium and high rates of greenhouse-gas emissions respectively, at a similar magnitude to expected global ocean thermal expansion. Analyzing one of the climate models in detail, we find that the dynamic, regional rise in sea level is induced by a weakening meridional overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean, and superimposed on the global mean sea level rise. The weakening of the Atlantic overturning causes a local steric sea level rise along the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic Current much larger than the global mean. More waters are redistributed towards the continental shelf of the northeastern United States. We conclude that together, future changes in sea level and ocean circulation will have a greater effect on the heavily populated northeastern United States than estimated previously.
We investigate the transient response of the global ocean circulation to enhanced freshwater forcing associated with melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Increased freshwater runoff from Greenland results in a basin-wide response of the North Atlantic on timescales of a few years, communicated via boundary waves, equatorial Kelvin waves, and westward propagating Rossby waves. In addition, modified air-sea interaction plays a fundamental role in setting up the basin-scale response of the Atlantic circulation in its subpolar and subtropical gyres. In particular, the modified ocean dynamics and thermodynamics lead to a depression in the central North and South Atlantic that would not be expected from linear wave dynamics. Moreover, the heat content increases on basin and global scales in response to anomalous freshwater forcing from Greenland, suggesting that the ocean's response to enhanced freshwater forcing would be a coupled problem. Other parts of the world ocean experience a much slower adjustment in response to Greenland freshwater forcing, communicated via planetary waves, but also involving advective/diffusive processes, especially in the Southern Ocean. Over the 50 years considered here, most of the sea level increase associated with freshwater input from Greenland remains in the Atlantic Ocean. In contrast, ice melting around Antarctica has a much reduced effect on the global ocean. In both cases, none of the basins came to a stationary state during the 50-year experiment.
Abstract Available from
http://www.agu.org
This study presents an assessment of the potential impacts of sea level rise on the New Jersey, USA coastal region. We produce
two projections of sea level rise for the New Jersey coast over the next century and apply them to a digital elevation model
to illustrate the extent to which coastal areas are susceptible to permanent inundation and episodic flooding due to storm
events. We estimate future coastline displacement and its consequences based on direct inundation only, which provides a lower
bound on total coastline displacement. The objective of this study is to illustrate methodologies that may prove useful to
policy makers despite the large uncertainties inherent in analysis of local impacts of climate and sea level change. Our findings
suggest that approximately 1% to 3% of the land area of New Jersey would be permanently inundated over the next century and
coastal storms would temporarily flood low-lying areas up to 20 times more frequently. Thus, absent human adaptation, by 2100
New Jersey would experience substantial land loss and alteration of the coastal zone, causing widespread impacts on coastal
development and ecosystems. Given the results, we identify future research needs and suggest that an important next step would
be for policy makers to explore potential adaptation strategies.
We estimate the rise in global average sea level from satellite altimeter data for 1993–2009 and from coastal and island sea-level
measurements from 1880 to 2009. For 1993–2009 and after correcting for glacial isostatic adjustment, the estimated rate of
rise is 3.2±0.4mmyear−1 from the satellite data and 2.8±0.8mmyear−1 from the in situ data. The global average sea-level rise from 1880 to 2009 is about 210mm. The linear trend from 1900 to
2009 is 1.7±0.2mmyear−1 and since 1961 is 1.9±0.4mmyear−1. There is considerable variability in the rate of rise during the twentieth century but there has been a statistically significant
acceleration since 1880 and 1900 of 0.009±0.003mmyear−2 and 0.009±0.004mmyear−2, respectively. Since the start of the altimeter record in 1993, global average sea level rose at a rate near the upper end
of the sea level projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Third and Fourth Assessment Reports. However,
the reconstruction indicates there was little net change in sea level from 1990 to 1993, most likely as a result of the volcanic
eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991.
KeywordsSea level–Climate change–Satellite altimeter–Tide gauge
Sea level rise (SLR) due to climate change will increase storm surge height along the 825km long coastline of Metro Boston,
USA. Land at risk consists of urban waterfront with piers and armoring, residential areas with and without seawalls and revetments,
and undeveloped land with either rock coasts or gently sloping beachfront and low-lying coastal marshes. Risk-based analysis
shows that the cumulative 100year economic impacts on developed areas from increased storm surge flooding depend heavily
upon the adaptation response, location, and estimated sea level rise. Generally it is found that it is advantageous to use
expensive structural protection in areas that are highly developed and less structural approaches such as floodproofing and
limiting or removing development in less developed or environmentally sensitive areas.
This paper considers the implications of a range of global-mean sea-level rise and socio-economic scenarios on: (1) changes in flooding by storm surges; and (2) potential losses of coastal wetlands through the 21st century. These scenarios are derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Four different storylines are analysed: the A1FI, A2, B1 and B2 ‘worlds’. The climate scenarios are derived from the HadCM3 climate model driven by the SRES emission scenarios. The SRES scenarios for global-mean sea-level rise range from 22 cm (B1 world) to 34 cm (A1FI world) by the 2080s, relative to 1990. All other climate factors, including storm characteristics, are assumed to remain constant in the long term. Population and GDP scenarios are downscaled from the SRES regional analyses supplemented with other relevant scenarios for each impact analysis.
Impact of ocean model resolution on CCSM climate simulations
- B P Kirtman
- C Bitz
- F Bryan
- W Collins
- J Dennis
- N Hearn
- Iii Kinter
- J L Loft
- R Rousset
- C Siqueira
- L Stan
- C Tomas
- R Vertenstein
Kirtman, B.P., Bitz, C., Bryan, F., Collins, W., Dennis, J., Hearn, N., Kinter III, J.L., Loft, R.,
Rousset, C., Siqueira, L., Stan, C., Tomas, R., Vertenstein, M., 2012. Impact of
ocean model resolution on CCSM climate simulations. Clim. Dyn. 39,
1303e1328.