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A systematic review of quantitative evidence about the impacts of Australian legislative reform on firearm homicide
Abstract
Developing legislative interventions to address firearm misuse is an issue of considerable public policy interest across many countries. However, systematic reviews of evidence about the efficacy of legislative change in reducing lethal firearm violence have only considered research examining the United States of America, a country that is unique among developed nations in its approach to firearm ownership. To inform international policy development, there is a need to consider other countries' experiences with gun law amendments. The current study used systematic literature search methods to identify evaluation-focused studies examining the impacts of legislative reform on firearm homicide in Australia, a country that made significant changes to its gun laws in the mid-1990s. Five studies met the inclusion criteria. These examined various different time periods, and used a range of different statistical analysis methods. No study found statistical evidence of any significant impact of the legislative changes on firearm homicide rates. The strengths and limitations of each study are discussed. Findings from this review provide insights into strategies and policies that may, and may not, be effective for reducing lethal firearm violence.
... Second, fake identities were sometimes used to purchase firearms (namely an action in Table 2), suggesting that police organizations and new technologies could develop protocols and tools to detect forged documents. Third, despite the debatable effectiveness of universal registration of all firearms (Bennett et al., 2022;Blais et al., 2011;McPhedran, 2016), some offenders were taking advantage of the variable legislation about firearm registration among Provinces, which can be conceptualized as a facilitating condition. Hence, the legislator could consider the reintroduction of the long gun registry in all Provinces. ...
Purpose. Based on the crime script approach, the main objective of this study was to identify steps involved in firearms trafficking in the Province of Quebec, Canada. Our analysis focused on actions performed by actors, facilitating conditions, obstacles and errors for each step of the firearms trafficking process.
Method. A deductive thematic analysis was conducted to build the firearms trafficking script with 76 investigation files, conducted between 1996 and 2020, that were provided by the Quebec State Police.
Results. Firearms trafficking included six steps: (1) preparation; (2) acquisition of firearms; (3) storage of firearms; (4) search for customers; (5) transaction; and (6) exit. Since each step can be completed with different actions, a total 1,200 combinations of actions could be used to traffic firearms. Results also indicated that several actors were involved at different steps of the script such as suppliers, middlemen, and vendors. Unregulated tools (e.g., hydraulic press, mold), materials and components (e.g., steel sheets, barrels) facilitated the fabrication of private firearms, while advertising firearms on social media was an error made by some suspects.
Conclusion. The dynamic and sequential nature of firearms trafficking was highlighted by our script analysis. Crime script analysis also proved to be a useful approach to predict potential crime displacement, plan program evaluation and implementation, and prioritize prevention measures involving multiple agencies.
... The overseas practice of arms control can be studied by using the experience of the United States, where legal regulation in this specific area is determined by federal legislation and laws in force in individual states (Kruis et al., 2021;McPhedran, 2016). This dual regulation leads to different rules and restrictions in different states, which can be depicted in the following model (Figure 2). ...
The purpose of the article was to determine the specific features of public control over the activities of certain law enforcement agencies and to develop suggestions for their improvement. The methodological basis of the research is general scientific (method of philosophical dialectics, etc.) and special legal methods of cognition (systemic, theoretical and legal, formal and dogmatic, comparative, state modeling method, etc.) The authors have developed their own definition of the concept of public control over the activities of law enforcement agencies. In the conclusions it has been offered to develop and approve the Law of Ukraine «On public control over the activities of law enforcement and supervisory bodies», which would systematize all forms of public control provided for in the Ukrainian legislation. Finally, suggestions have been developed for the introduction of positive international experiences of public control over the activities of law enforcement agencies in various countries.
... the normal time horizons of most Parliamentary members. The reduction of disparity between rich and poor, a sharp reduction in unemployment (or conversely, high employment), the creation of communities which inculcate and promote senses of belonging and inclusion are regarded as essential components for reducing criminal offending(Kwon et al., 1997; Kennedy et al., 1998;McPhedran, 2016;Dantinne and André 2016;Abt, 2019). ...
... firearms on weapon violence(McPhedran 2016;Cook 2018), but the focus of these studies on legal weapon ownership by adults limits their value for understanding illegal weapon-carrying by young people.HypothesesFollowing a summary of the risk factors for carrying a weapon by a young person identified in an international collection of studies, this paper seeks to add to the literature by identifying risk factors for weapon-carrying by young people in England and Wales. As can be seen from the literature detailed above, the list of risk factors is long and important influencers can be found at all levels of the social-ecological model. ...
Criminology has much to offer activities to reduce the harm of violent incidents-particularly by reducing weapon-carrying and use-but the discipline's engagement with the harm reduction agenda has been limited. In addressing this, the paper identifies risk factors for carrying a weapon by a young person in England and Wales. It demonstrates that this decision is influenced by individual-, interpersonal-and community-level factors and that weapon carriers can be distinguished from other respondents using relatively few characteristics. The study also shows that defensive factors, such as victimisation and concerns about personal safety are relevant to understanding weapon-carrying, but they are outweighed by criminogenic factors such as violence, neighbourhood disorder and, importantly, lack of trust in the police.
... Although a selection of studies to date have considered firearm homicide in Australia, with a consistent finding of no significant impact of the laws on firearm homicide rates (McPhedran, 2016), no research to date has undertaken gender-disaggregated analysis. However, consistent with observations made in other nations, Australian firearm homicide is a gendered crime-in the sense that the majority of victims are male (around 80%; see Bryant & Cussen, 2015;Chan & Payne, 2013;Dearden & Jones, 2008;Virueda & Payne, 2010). ...
Reducing lethal violence against women requires comprehensive measures addressing individual, social, economic, cultural, and situational factors. Regarding situational factors, access to weapons—and firearm access in particular—has received notable research attention. However, most study comes from the United States of America, and findings may not apply elsewhere. The current study examines whether changing gun laws in Australia affected female firearm homicide victimization. Female firearm homicide victimization may have been affected; however, no significant impacts were found for male firearm homicide victimization. Findings suggest there may be value in preventing legal access to firearms by persons who have a history of intimate partner violence, although considerable further study is required.
This chapter reviews some common approaches focused, non-behavioral approaches to altering cultural practices to reduce aggression and violence. These include adoption of certain child rearing practices; school-based interventions; evidence-based policing to reduce violence by the police; crime prevention through environmental design, such as street lighting and cameras; modifying the content of media including violent pornography; and bystander training.KeywordsAggressionViolenceCultural designChild rearingSchool-based interventionsEvidence-based policingCrime prevention through environmental designStreet lightingCamerasMediaPornographyBystander trainingRestorative justice
This article provides an overview of how systematic review (SR) methods have been used to evaluate public policy. It argues that these methods can be applied to the evaluation of environmental public policy, but that certain challenges need to be addressed in order to fulfil the SR methods potential. The article reflects upon two methodological challenges confronting systematic reviewers: how data from the articles should be synthesised; and how to take societal contexts into account. Analysing how these challenges have been addressed in practice contributes to the theoretical discussion about the usefulness of different synthesis methods, and the role of context. Three lessons are drawn as to how systematic review methods can become useful when applied to the evaluation of environmental public policy, namely: (1) to anticipate the heterogeneity in the literature from the beginning – in terms of both research design and operationalisation of key concepts; (2) to consider the purpose of the review when deciding whether to take a single- or multi-context approach; and (3) to be methodologically innovative when applying the systematic review methods to complex policies.
Criminology has much to offer activities to reduce the harm of violent incidents-particularly by reducing weapon-carrying and use-but the discipline's engagement with the harm reduction agenda has been limited. In addressing this, the article identifes risk factors for carrying a weapon by a young person in England and Wales. It demonstrates that this decision is influenced by individual-, interpersonal-and communitylevel factors and that weapon carriers can be distinguished from other respondents using relatively few characteristics. The study also shows that defensive factors, such as victimization and concerns about personal safety, are relevant to understanding weapon-carrying, but they are outweighed by criminogenic factors such as violence, neighbourhood disorder and, importantly, lack of trust in the police.
There are many types of interpersonal violence that can lead to short-and long-term physical and psychological effects on those involved. Reducing Interpersonal Violence reflects on the World Health Organization's stance that interpersonal violence is a public health problem and considers what steps can realistically be taken towards its reduction. Clive Hollin examines interpersonal violence across a range of settings, from bullying at school and in the workplace, smacking children and partner violence in the home, to sexual and other forms of criminal violence in the community. This book summarises the research on evidence-based strategies to reduce violence and shows that reducing interpersonal violence can have a positive effect on people's wellbeing and may save a great deal of public expenditure. This book is an invaluable resource for students and researchers in the fields of psychology, criminology, law, and police studies, as well as professionals such as probation staff and forensic psychologists.
The moment we are introduced to science we are told it is a cooperative, cumulative enterprise. Like the artisans who construct a building from blueprints, bricks, and mortar, scientists contribute to a common edifice, called knowledge. Theorists provide our blueprints and researchers collect the data that are our bricks. To extend the analogy further yet, we might say that research synthesists are the bricklayers and hodcarriers of the science guild. It is their job to stack the bricks according to plan and apply the mortar that makes the whole thing stick. Anyone who has attempted a research synthesis is entitled to a wry smile as the analogy continues. They know that several sets of theory-blueprints often exist, describing structures that vary in form and function, with few a priori criteria for selecting between them. They also know that our data-bricks are not all six-sided and right-angled. They come in a baffling array of sizes and shapes. Making them fit, securing them with mortar, and seeing whether the resulting construction looks anything like the blueprint is a challenge worthy of the most dedicated, inspired artisan.
Introduction:
Public health organizations have recommended restricted access and safe storage practices as means to reduce firearm injuries and deaths. We aimed to assess the effect of four firearm restrictions on firearm deaths in Norway 1969-2009.
Methods:
All deaths due to firearm discharge were included (5,660 deaths, both sexes). The statistical analysis to assess impact of firearm legislations was restricted to males because of the sex disproportionality (94% were males).
Results:
A total of 89% of firearm deaths (both sexes) were classified as suicide, 8% as homicide, and 3% as unintentional (accident). During the past four decades, male accidental firearm death rates were reduced significantly by 90%. Male firearms suicide rates increased from 1969 to 1991 by 166%, and decreased by 62% from 1991 to 2009. Despite the great reduction in male accidental firearm deaths, we were unable to demonstrate effects of the laws. In contrast, we found that a 1990 regulation, requiring a police permit before acquiring a shotgun, had a beneficial impact on suicide in the total sample and in those aged 15-34 years. Male firearm homicides decreased post-2003 regulation regarding storing home guard weapons in private homes.
Conclusions:
Our findings suggest that two laws could have contributed to reduce male firearm mortality. It is, however, a challenge to measure the role of four firearm restrictions. The null findings are inconclusive, as they may reflect no true impact or study limitations.
Bills C-51 (1977), C-17 (1991), and C-68 (1995) were enacted into law by the Government of Canada with a view to tightening controls on firearms in order to prevent homicides related to their use. The effectiveness of these laws has fuelled several debates on the political scene. Given the many limitations of assessments conducted to this day, the credibility of their results is often questioned. Using a multiple-time-series design, the purpose of this article is to assess the impact of the three most recent Canadian gun control laws, all the while overcoming the limitations identified in the scientific literature. Our results show that the enactment of Bills C-51 and C-68 was followed by a significant drop in the number of homicides committed with a firearm, a decrease of 5% to 10%, depending on the province. This reduction was most noticeable in the case of homicides committed with a shotgun or a hunting rifle. No tactical displacement was observed. Finally, results suggest that the effectiveness of these laws is due to the reduced access and availability of firearms rather than to the severity of sentences provided in the legislation.
Mass murders in Dunblane, United Kingdom, and Port Arthur, Australia, provoked rapid responses from the governments of both
countries. Major changes to Australian laws resulted in a controversial buy-back of longarms and tighter legislation. The
Australian situation enables evaluation of the effect of a national buy-back, accompanied by tightened legislation in a country
with relatively secure borders. AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) was used to predict future values of the
time series for homicide, suicide and accidental death before and after the 1996 National Firearms Agreement (NFA). When compared
with observed values, firearm suicide was the only parameter the NFA may have influenced, although societal factors could
also have influenced observed changes. The findings have profound implications for future firearm legislation policy direction.
Importance:
Over 30,000 people die annually in the United States from injuries caused by firearms. Although most firearm laws are enacted by states, whether the laws are associated with rates of firearm deaths is uncertain.
Objective:
To evaluate whether more firearm laws in a state are associated with fewer firearm fatalities.
Design:
Using an ecological and cross-sectional method, we retrospectively analyzed all firearm-related deaths reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Web-based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System from 2007 through 2010. We used state-level firearm legislation across 5 categories of laws to create a "legislative strength score," and measured the association of the score with state mortality rates using a clustered Poisson regression. States were divided into quartiles based on their score.
Setting:
Fifty US states.
Participants:
Populations of all US states.
Main outcome measures:
The outcome measures were state-level firearm-related fatalities per 100,000 individuals per year overall, for suicide, and for homicide. In various models, we controlled for age, sex, race/ethnicity, poverty, unemployment, college education, population density, nonfirearm violence-related deaths, and household firearm ownership.
Results:
Over the 4-year study period, there were 121,084 firearm fatalities. The average state-based firearm fatality rates varied from a high of 17.9 (Louisiana) to a low of 2.9 (Hawaii) per 100,000 individuals per year. Annual firearm legislative strength scores ranged from 0 (Utah) to 24 (Massachusetts) of 28 possible points. States in the highest quartile of legislative strength (scores of ≥9) had a lower overall firearm fatality rate than those in the lowest quartile (scores of ≤2) (absolute rate difference, 6.64 deaths/100,000/y; age-adjusted incident rate ratio [IRR], 0.58; 95% CI, 0.37-0.92). Compared with the quartile of states with the fewest laws, the quartile with the most laws had a lower firearm suicide rate (absolute rate difference, 6.25 deaths/100,000/y; IRR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.48-0.83) and a lower firearm homicide rate (absolute rate difference, 0.40 deaths/100,000/y; IRR, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.38-0.95).
Conclusions and relevance:
A higher number of firearm laws in a state are associated with a lower rate of firearm fatalities in the state, overall and for suicides and homicides individually. As our study could not determine cause-and-effect relationships, further studies are necessary to define the nature of this association.
Use of weapons is a risk factor for domestic violence severity, especially lethality. It is not clear, however, whether access to firearms itself increases assault severity, or whether it is characteristic of a subgroup of offenders who are more likely to commit severe and repeated domestic assault. This reanalysis of 1,421 police reports of domestic violence by men found that 6% used a weapon during the assault and 8% had access to firearms. We expected that firearm use would be rare compared to other weapons and that actual weapon use rather than firearm access would increase the severity of domestic assaults. Firearm access was associated with assault severity, but this was mostly attributable to use of nonfirearm weapons. Weapon use was associated with older age, lower education, and relationship history as well as to assault severity. Victims were most concerned about future assaults following threats and actual injuries. Although firearm access and weapon use were related to actuarial risk of domestic violence recidivism, neither predicted the occurrence or severity of recidivism. We conclude that, consistent with previous research in the United States and Canada, firearm use in domestic violence is uncommon even among offenders with known firearm access. Weapon use is characteristic of a subgroup of offenders who commit more severe domestic violence, and seizure of weapons may be an effective intervention.
The recent shootings at a Montreal school have reignited the controversy over the firearm registry and has prompted the Conservative government to review its earlier pledge to scrap the registry. This paper is a timely effort to evaluate the effectiveness of the 1995 firearm legislation that created the firearm registry. In 1995, the government assumed that, by controlling the availability of firearms, the registry would reduce total criminal violence, not just gun violence, suicide and domestic abuse. This legislation is fundamentally flawed because it relies upon public health research to justify its moralistic approach to firearms. Public health advocates have exaggerated the danger of citizens owning firearms through pseudoscientific research methods. The firearm registry involves licensing firearm owners as well as registering firearms. Even though the registry was created by the 1995 legislation, it was not implemented until 1998. Since the registry, with its dual function of licensing owners and registering long arms, was first implemented, the total homicide rate has actually increased by 9%. Perhaps the most striking change is that gang-related homicides have increased substantially - almost doubling between 1998 and 2005. Despite the drop in firearm-related suicides since the registry began, an increase in suicides involving hanging has nearly cancelled out the drop in firearm suicides. No persuasive link has been found between the firearm registry and any of these changes. In conclusion, no convincing empirical evidence can be found that the firearm program has improved public safety. Violent crime and suicide rates remain virtually unchanged despite the nearly unlimited annual budgets during the first seven years of the firearms registry. Notwithstanding an estimated C$ 2 billion cost to date, the firearms registry remains notably incomplete and has an error rate that remains embarrassingly high.
What effects do gun control restrictions and gun prevalence have on rates of violence and crime? Data were gathered for all 170 U.S. cities with a 1980 population of at least 100,000. The cities were coded for the presence of 19 major categories of firearms restriction, including both state- and city-level restrictions. Multiple indirect indicators of gun prevalence levels were measured and models of city violence rates were estimated using two-stage least-squares methods. The models covered all major categories of intentional violence and crime which frequently involve guns: homicide, suicide, fatal gun accidents, robbery, and aggravated assaults, as well as rape. Findings indicate that (1) gun prevalence levels generally have no net positive effect on total violence rates, (2) homicide, gun assault, and rape rates increase gun prevalence, (3) gun control restrictions have no net effect on gun prevalence levels, and (4) most gun control restrictions generally have no net effect on violence rates. There were, however, some possible exceptions to this last conclusion—of 108 assessments of effects of different gun laws on different types of violence, 7 indicated good support, and another 11 partial support, for the hypothesis of gun control efficacy.
Canada has implemented legislation covering all firearms since 1977 and presents a model to examine incremental firearms control. The effect of legislation on homicide by firearm and the subcategory, spousal homicide, is controversial and has not been well studied to date. Legislative effects on homicide and spousal homicide were analyzed using data obtained from Statistics Canada from 1974 to 2008. Three statistical methods were applied to search for any associated effects of firearms legislation. Interrupted time series regression, ARIMA, and Joinpoint analysis were performed. Neither were any significant beneficial associations between firearms legislation and homicide or spousal homicide rates found after the passage of three Acts by the Canadian Parliament—Bill C-51 (1977), C-17 (1991), and C-68 (1995)—nor were effects found after the implementation of licensing in 2001 and the registration of rifles and shotguns in 2003. After the passage of C-68, a decrease in the rate of the decline of homicide by firearm was found by interrupted regression. Joinpoint analysis also found an increasing trend in homicide by firearm rate post the enactment of the licensing portion of C-68. Other factors found to be associated with homicide rates were median age, unemployment, immigration rates, percentage of population in low-income bracket, Gini index of income equality, population per police officer, and incarceration rate. This study failed to demonstrate a beneficial association between legislation and firearm homicide rates between 1974 and 2008.
A widely publicized but unpublished study of the relationship between gun shows and gun violence is being cited in debates about the regulation of gun shows and gun commerce. We believe the study is fatally flawed.
A working paper entitled “The Effect of Gun Shows on Gun-Related Deaths: Evidence from California and Texas” outlined this study, which found no association between gun shows and gun-related deaths. We believe the study reflects a limited understanding of gun shows and gun markets and is not statistically powered to detect even an implausibly large effect of gun shows on gun violence. In addition, the research contains serious ascertainment and classification errors, produces results that are sensitive to minor specification changes in key variables and in some cases have no face validity, and is contradicted by 1 of its own authors’ prior research. The study should not be used as evidence in formulating gun policy.
In November 1986, a Detroit, Michigan city ordinance requiring mandatory jail sentences for illegally carrying a firearm in public was passed to preserve "the public peace, health, safety, and welfare of the people."
We conducted a set of interrupted time-series analyses to evaluate the impact of the law on the incidence of homicides, hypothesizing that the ordinance, by its nature, would affect only firearm homicides and homicides committed outside (e.g., on the street).
The incidence of homicide in general increased after the law was passed, but the increases in non-firearm homicides and homicides committed inside (e.g., in a home) were either statistically significant or approached statistical significance (p = .006 and p = .070, respectively), whereas changes in the incidence of firearm homicides and homicides committed outside were not statistically significant (p = .238 and p = .418, respectively). We also determined that the ordinance was essentially unenforced, apparently because of a critical shortage of jail space.
Our findings are consistent with a model in which the ordinance had a dampening effect on firearm homicides occurring in public in Detroit. The apparent preventive effect evident in the time series analyses may have been due to publicity about the ordinance, whereas the small nature of the effect may have been due to the lack of enforcement.
To examine trends in rates of firearm related deaths in Victoria, Australia, over 22 years in the context of legislative reform and describe and investigate impact measures to explain trends.
Mortality data were extracted from vital statistics for 1979-2000. Data on firearm related deaths that were unintentional deaths, assaults, suicides, and of undetermined intent were analyzed. Rates were calculated with population data derived from estimates by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. A quasi-experimental design that used a Poisson regression model was adopted to compare relative rates of firearm related deaths for Victoria and the rest of Australia over three critical periods of legislative reform. The Wilcoxon signed ranks test was used to assess changes in the types of firearm related deaths before and after 1998.
In Victoria, two periods of legislative reform related to firearms followed mass shooting events in 1988 and 1996. A national firearm amnesty and buyback scheme followed the latter. Victorian and Australian rates of firearm related deaths before reforms (1979-86) were steady. After initial Victorian reforms, a significant downward trend was seen for numbers of all firearm related deaths between 1988 and 1995 (17.3% in Victoria compared with the rest of Australia, p<0.0001). A further significant decline between 1997 and 2000 followed the later reforms. After the later all state legislation, similar strong declines occurred in the rest of Australia from 1997 (14.0% reduction compared with Victoria, p = 0.0372). Victorian reductions were observed in frequencies of firearm related suicides, assaults, and unintentional deaths before and after the 1988 reforms, but statistical significance was reached only for suicide.
Dramatic reductions in overall firearm related deaths and particularly suicides by firearms were achieved in the context of the implementation of strong regulatory reform.
After a 1996 firearm massacre in Tasmania in which 35 people died, Australian governments united to remove semi-automatic and pump-action shotguns and rifles from civilian possession, as a key component of gun law reforms.
To determine whether Australia's 1996 major gun law reforms were associated with changes in rates of mass firearm homicides, total firearm deaths, firearm homicides and firearm suicides, and whether there were any apparent method substitution effects for total homicides and suicides.
Observational study using official statistics. Negative binomial regression analysis of changes in firearm death rates and comparison of trends in pre-post gun law reform firearm-related mass killings.
Australia, 1979-2003.
Changes in trends of total firearm death rates, mass fatal shooting incidents, rates of firearm homicide, suicide and unintentional firearm deaths, and of total homicides and suicides per 100,000 population.
In the 18 years before the gun law reforms, there were 13 mass shootings in Australia, and none in the 10.5 years afterwards. Declines in firearm-related deaths before the law reforms accelerated after the reforms for total firearm deaths (p = 0.04), firearm suicides (p = 0.007) and firearm homicides (p = 0.15), but not for the smallest category of unintentional firearm deaths, which increased. No evidence of substitution effect for suicides or homicides was observed. The rates per 100,000 of total firearm deaths, firearm homicides and firearm suicides all at least doubled their existing rates of decline after the revised gun laws.
Australia's 1996 gun law reforms were followed by more than a decade free of fatal mass shootings, and accelerated declines in firearm deaths, particularly suicides. Total homicide rates followed the same pattern. Removing large numbers of rapid-firing firearms from civilians may be an effective way of reducing mass shootings, firearm homicides and firearm suicides.
Protecting children and reducing social exclusion are the priorities
The positive correlation between gun prevalence and homicide rates has been widely documented. But does this correlation reflect a causal relationship? This study seeks to answer the question of whether more guns cause more crime, and unlike nearly all previous such studies, we properly account for the endogeneity of gun ownership levels. We discuss the three main sources of endogeneity bias - reverse causality (higher crime rates lead people to acquire guns for self-protection), mismeasurement of gun levels, and omitted/confounding variables - and show how the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) can provide an empirical researcher with both a clear modeling framework and a set of estimation and specification testing procedures that can address these problems. A county level cross-sectional analysis was performed using data on every US county with a population of at least 25,000 in 1990; the sample covers over 90% of the US population in that year. Gun ownership levels were measured using the percent of suicides committed with guns, which recent research indicates is the best measure of gun levels for cross-sectional research. We apply our procedures to these data, and find strong evidence of the existence of endogeneity problems. When the problem is ignored, gun levels are associated with higher rates of gun homicide; when the problem is addressed, this association disappears or reverses. Our results indicate that gun prevalence has no significant net positive effect on homicide rates: ceteris paribus, more guns do not mean more crime.
As the value of evidence-based policy is increasingly recognised in Australia and internationally, it is incumbent upon researchers to ensure that their work is robust, appropriate in its selection of statistical methods, and based upon testable hypotheses. This caution is particularly apt for contentious areas within justice policy. This review examined strengths and weaknesses in the application of research methodology, using the often controversial example of Australian firearms legislation. Particular emphasis was given to comparing and contrasting different analysis methods. The key conclusions of each paper are examined, and contextualised against the statistical methods used. The application of basic principles such as assessing congruence between results and conclusions, as well as treating evidence as a cumulative rather than definitive process, has the ability to enhance the quality of research and policy.
The purpose of this study is to statistically and empirically evaluate the effectiveness of the gun control laws that have been adopted by states and municipalities. States are divided into two groups: states with no restrictions as to gun use and states with restrictions (e.g., waiting periods, license, etc.). Multiple linear regression models are used to evaluate the relationship between the number of gun related deaths in 1990 and sets of determinants which include state laws and regulations governing the use of firearms. The study results indicate that gun control laws have a very mild effect on the number of gun related deaths while socioeconomic variables such as a state's poverty level, unemployment rate and alcohol consumption, have significant impact on firearm related deaths. These findings suggest that any reduction in resources spent on social programs tied to the Crime Bill may be counter-productive.
Mass shootings at Navy Yard, Newtown, Aurora, and elsewhere have jolted Congress and the states into considering gun violence prevention. More than 1500 gun-related bills have been introduced since 2013, after the slaughter in Newtown of twenty elementary-school children and six adults. Legislation and debates are shaped by the specter of a heavily armed, mentally ill individual hunting in public places such as schools, businesses, and workplaces. In the states, the most successful type of legislation involves firearms restrictions for the mentally ill. In Congress, the legislation that garnered the most debate was a ban on assault weapons and large-capacity magazines. While the national attention to firearms violence prevention is salutary, for law and policy to tackle the core of the problem it is important to address two empirical questions: Who are the dangerous individuals committing most firearms homicides, and why do the law's current screens miss them? This Article draws on data from the National Violent Death Reporting System to answer the crucial foundational questions of who poses a danger and why the dangerous slip through existing legal screens. Presenting data on the most prevalent place of shooting, the victim-shooter relationship, and the shooter's prior history, this Article shows that prevention of extraordinarily devastating firearms violence calls for attention to how the nation addresses "ordinary" violence. By ordinary violence, this Article means violence that is often viewed as mundane, such as altercations between family members, friends, and intimates in the home. Many perpetrators of firearms homicide have a history of such prior events-yet a substantially smaller proportion of these violent episodes have been adjudicated, thereby slipping through existing screens for firearms restrictions. Based on these findings, the Article discusses how executive action steering scene-of-assault procedure and discretion in dealing with ordinary violence can improve detection of the dangerous regardless of whether proposed firearms restrictions survive the gauntlet that besets new gun laws.
While the main focus of this chapter will be meta-analysis, it cannot be completely isolated from several prerequisites assessed in the systematic review. For example, the studies must address a common question. The eligibility criteria of the underlying studies must be well established. Evaluation techniques for endpoints must be reasonably consistent across the studies. In the clinical setting, when making comparisons between a treatment and control, the underlying studies must be properly randomized. Exploratory meta-analyses and meta-regressions may examine associations between interventions, covariates, and secondary events.
Highlights • Police reported 8,105 victims of fi rearm-related violent crime in 2006. The rate of fi rearm-related victimization remained stable for the fourth consecutive year. • The large majority of police-reported violent crimes do not involve a fi rearm. In 2006, a fi rearm was used against 2.4% of victims of violent crime. Physical force and threatening behaviour were much more common, accounting for three-quarters of all victimizations. • As with the overall trend, the rates of fi rearm-related crime among major crime categories, such as homicide, attempted murder and robbery, have remained stable in recent years. • Victims of robbery and assault accounted for about three-quarters of the total number of fi rearm-related victimizations in 2006. Although the incidence of attempted murder and homicide was much lower, a fi rearm was used against approximately one-third of victims of these offences, substantially higher than the proportions of robbery (14%) and assault (1%). • Similar to the trend in violent crime in general, fi rearm-related violent crime rates were higher in western Canada than in the east. The 2006 rates reported in Saskatchewan and Manitoba were 2 to 3 times higher than those in Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island and New Brunswick. • The rates of fi rearm-related violent crime in 2006 were highest in the larger census metropolitan areas of Vancouver, Winnipeg and Toronto and lowest in the smaller areas of Trois-Rivières and Sherbrooke. • The rate of youth accused of fi rearm-related violent crime increased in 3 of the past 4 years. Year-to-year fl uctuations in the rate of youth accused were driven primarily by incidents of fi rearm-related robberies. • Persons convicted of a fi rearm-related violent offence were sentenced to an average of 4.2 years in prison, double the average custodial sentence length for those convicted of a non-fi rearm violent offence.
Effective federal regulation of firearm dealers has proven difficult. Consequently, many states choose to implement their own regulations. We examined the impact of state-required licensing, record keeping of sales, allowable inspections, and mandatory theft reporting on firearm homicide from 1995 to 2010. We found that lower homicide rates were associated with states that required licensing and inspections. We concluded that firearm dealer regulations might be an effective harm reduction strategy for firearm homicide. (Am J Public Health. Published online ahead of print June 12, 2014: e1-e3. doi:10.2105/AJPH.2014.301999).
In the USA, homicide is a leading cause of death for young males and a major cause of racial disparities in life expectancy for men. There are intense debate and little rigorous research on the effects of firearm sales regulation on homicides. This study estimates the impact of Missouri's 2007 repeal of its permit-to-purchase (PTP) handgun law on states' homicide rates and controls for changes in poverty, unemployment, crime, incarceration, policing levels, and other policies that could potentially affect homicides. Using death certificate data available through 2010, the repeal of Missouri's PTP law was associated with an increase in annual firearm homicides rates of 1.09 per 100,000 (+23 %) but was unrelated to changes in non-firearm homicide rates. Using Uniform Crime Reporting data from police through 2012, the law's repeal was associated with increased annual murders rates of 0.93 per 100,000 (+16 %). These estimated effects translate to increases of between 55 and 63 homicides per year in Missouri.
Following several tragic deaths involving firearms in New South Wales, there has been much public speculation about whether offences involving firearms and particularly handguns are increasing. This bulletin discusses evidence bearing on this issue. It shows that the number of murders involving firearms in New South Wales actually fell between 1995 and 2000, as did the incidence of robbery with a firearm between 1997 and 2000. However the number of shooting offences rose between 1995 and 2000, particularly in parts of South Western Sydney. Police data show that young adult males are especially prone to involvement in firearm offences. United States data on homicides committed by youths using handguns are used to highlight the importance of limiting the acquisition of handguns by young people. Strategies to reduce the spread of handguns are discussed. Contemporary Issues in Crime and Justice
In response to rising rates of firearms violence that peaked in the mid-1990s, a wide range of policy interventions have been developed in an attempt to reduce violent crimes committed with firearms. Although some of these approaches appear to be effective at reducing gun violence, methodological variations make comparing effects across program evaluations difficult. Accordingly, in this article, the authors use meta-analytic techniques to determine what works in reducing gun violence. The results indicate that comprehensive community-based law enforcement initiatives have performed the best at reducing gun violence.
SUICIDE PREVENTION ENDEAVOURS MAY BE DIVERSE . T HIS PAPER DISCUSSES issues of primary and secondary prevention. Australia compared with other nations has an alarmingly high rate of young male suicide and, with this in mind, secondary preventative strategies that rely on impinging on the availability of culturally accepted relatively lethal methods of suicide are examined. Political pitfalls are highlighted before specific attention is given to suicide by drug overdose and firearms. Young Australian males have high rates of firearm suicide which coincide with findings from North America. It is suggested that tightening of firearm legislation might reduce overall suicide rates. It is noted that addressing social problems relevant to suicide is of undisputed importance but this should be combined with more direct practical measures to reduce death rates.
Utilising an account of the development of gun control legislation in Britain and the work of Norbert Elias, this paper argues that there are a number of processes that influence the development of such legislation, both in Britain and elsewhere. It argues that while processes such as the state's predisposition to consolidate its monopoly on the use of violence and advances in people's threshold of repugnance at violence influence the development of legislation, they can also lead to a blurring of the distinction between legally held sporting guns and illegal firearms in the hands of criminals. The paper concludes by considering other factors such as the efficacy of the prohibitionist lobby on the one hand and the gun lobby on the other, together with historical factors that may, in part, account for international variation in regimes of gun control.
Abstract The purpose of this study is to statistically and empirically evaluate the effectiveness of the gun control laws that have been adopted by states and municipalities. States are divided into two groups: states with no restrictions as to gun use and states with restrictions (e.g., waiting periods, license, etc.). Multiple linear regression models are used to evaluate the relationship between the number of gun related deaths in 1990 and sets of determinants which include state laws and regulations governing the use of firearms. The study results indicate that gun control laws have a very mild effect on the number of gun related deaths while socioeconomic variables such as a state's poverty level, unemployment rate and alcohol consumption, have significant impact on firearm related deaths. These findings suggest that any reduction in resources spent on social programs tied to the Crime Bill may be counter-productive.
Police officials across the United States often claimed credit for crime reductions during the 1990s. In this article, we examine homicide trends in three cities that mounted widely publicized policing interventions during the 1990s: Boston's Operation Ceasefire, New York's Compstat, and Richmond, Virginia's Project Exile. Applying growth-curve analysis to data from the 95 largest U.S. cities and controlling for conditions known to be associated with violent crime rates, we find that New York's homicide trend during the 1990s did not differ significantly from those of other large cities. We find some indication of a sharper homicide drop in Boston than elsewhere, but the small number of incidents precludes strong conclusions. By contrast, Richmond's homicide reduction was significantly greater than the decline in other large cities after the implementation of Project Exile, which is consistent with claims of an intervention effect, although the effect may have been small.
Criminologists gave police and other public officials something of a free ride as they claimed credit for the 1990s crime drop. We propose that researchers employ comparable data and methods to evaluate such claims-making, with the current analysis intended as a departure point for ongoing research. The use of common evaluation criteria is especially urgent for assessing the effects of the multiple interventions to reduce violent crime launched under the nation's primary domestic crime-control initiative, Project Safe Neighborhoods.
The problem of testing statistical hypotheses is an old one. Its origins are usually connected with the name of Thomas Bayes, who gave the well-known theorem on the probabilities a posteriori of the possible “causes” of a given event.* Since then it has been discussed by many writers of whom we shall here mention two only, Bertrand† and Borel,‡ whose differing views serve well to illustrate the point from which we shall approach the subject.
In 1997, Australia implemented a gun buyback program that reduced the stock of firearms by around one-fifth (and nearly halved
the number of gun-owning households). Using differences across states, we test whether the reduction in firearms availability
affected homicide and suicide rates. We find that the buyback led to a drop in the firearm suicide rates of almost 80%, with
no significant effect on non-firearm death rates. The effect on firearm homicides is of similar magnitude but is less precise.
The results are robust to a variety of specification checks and to instrumenting the state-level buyback rate.
The study tested the hypotheses that (i) the rate of suicide by firearms among youth (aged 10-19 years) is increasing at a greater rate than rates of suicide by other methods; (ii) the rate of youth suicide in rural New South Wales is significantly higher than those in urban areas; and (iii) the increase in youth suicide by means of firearms is occurring at a greater rate in rural males aged 15-19 years than in other groups.
Data were obtained from the NSW Office of the Australian Bureau of Statistics concerning 735 youth suicides in NSW between 1964 and 1988. These were reviewed for information concerning residential area and method of death. Five five-year periods were used, and rates were calculated with population figures obtained in the census years for the same age and sex group.
From 1964 to 1988, suicide by firearms has risen most substantially, from 3.4 to 5.6 per 100,000 per year in 15-19-year-old males. There has also been a substantial increase in 15-19-year-old male suicides by hanging (0.7 to 3.4 per 100,000 per year). Poisoning suicides have declined among females and males in the past 15 years. Suicide rates in Sydney, Newcastle and Wollongong have remained stable. In rural cities, they have increased from 1.5 to 4.7 per 100,000 per year (F = 4.9, P less than 0.02) while in rural municipalities and shires they have increased from 1.3 to 6.4 (F = 14.6, P less than 0.0001). The suicide rate of 15-19-year-old males has shown a modest increase in Sydney and no change in Newcastle or Wollongong, but the rate for 15-19-year-old males in rural cities has more than doubled, from 5.1 to 12.5 (F = 7.7, P less than 0.003), while in rural municipalities and shires, the rate has increased more than fivefold, from 3.9 to 20.7 (F = 9.3, P less than 0.001). There has been no significant change in the suicide rates of 15-19-year-old females, or in 10-14-year-olds. The rate of suicide by firearms among 15-19-year-old males has not risen significantly in rural cities, but in rural municipalities and shires the rates have risen fivefold from 2.8 to 14.8 (F = 5.6, P less than 0.01).
Each hypothesis was confirmed. An increase of this magnitude is not an artefact of coroners' verdicts. The findings are believed to be due to ready access to firearms, the use of alcohol and drugs (particularly in firearms suicides) and increasing socioeconomic, health, and identity problems for rural youth, especially males.
Firearms cause more than three deaths daily in Canada. The rate of mortality from gunshot wounds varies among provinces and territories, ranging from 5.7 to 21.2 per 100,000 people. Most deaths from gunshot wounds occur in the home, with more occurring in rural areas than in cities, and are inflicted with legally acquired hunting guns. The cost of the consequences of the improper use of firearms in Canada has been estimated at $6.6 billion per year. There is a correlation between access to guns and risk of death. The mere presence of a firearm in a home increases the risk of suicide, homicide and "accidental" death. It is estimated that, in one third of all households in Quebec that have a firearm, it is not safely, or even legally, stored. To prevent deaths and injuries from firearms, education is not enough. Environmental, technological and legislative measures are also needed. In this spirit, the Quebec Public Health Network has taken a position supporting better controls on access to firearms, including the licensing and registration of all firearms and their ownership, to prevent deaths and injuries. The network believes that licensing and registration will reduce the problems related to firearms by making owners accountable for the use of their firearms, improving public safety, helping to control the import and circulation of firearms, reinforcing research and education, and reducing access to firearms in homes. Licensing and registration do not interfere with legitimate firearm use, their cost is acceptable in light of the advantages they provide, and they are desired by most Canadians.
There are more than seven million firearms in Canada and approximately 1400 firearm-related deaths per year, These figures are far greater than those for most European countries, but far less than those for the United States. This article will discuss the different classes of firearm deaths and the associated costs. Public health issues will he explored, especially as they relate to the involvement of the Canadian Association of Emergency Physicians, as well as injury control recommendations. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Inc.
In February 1994, the Brady Handgun Violence Prevention Act established a nationwide requirement that licensed firearms dealers observe a waiting period and initiate a background check for handgun sales. The effects of this act have not been analyzed.
To determine whether implementation of the Brady Act was associated with reductions in homicide and suicide rates.
Analysis of vital statistics data in the United States for 1985 through 1997 from the National Center for Health Statistics.
Total and firearm homicide and suicide rates per 100,000 adults (>/=21 years and >/=55 years) and proportion of homicides and suicides resulting from firearms were calculated by state and year. Controlling for population age, race, poverty and income levels, urban residence, and alcohol consumption, the 32 "treatment" states directly affected by the Brady Act requirements were compared with the 18 "control" states and the District of Columbia, which had equivalent legislation already in place.
Changes in rates of homicide and suicide for treatment and control states were not significantly different, except for firearm suicides among persons aged 55 years or older (-0.92 per 100,000; 95% confidence interval [CI], -1.43 to -0.42). This reduction in suicides for persons aged 55 years or older was much stronger in states that had instituted both waiting periods and background checks (-1.03 per 100,000; 95% CI, -1.58 to -0.47) than in states that only changed background check requirements (-0.17 per 100,000; 95% CI, -1.09 to 0.75).
Based on the assumption that the greatest reductions in fatal violence would be within states that were required to institute waiting periods and background checks, implementation of the Brady Act appears to have been associated with reductions in the firearm suicide rate for persons aged 55 years or older but not with reductions in homicide rates or overall suicide rates. However, the pattern of implementation of the Brady Act does not permit a reliable analysis of a potential effect of reductions in the flow of guns from treatment-state gun dealers into secondary markets. JAMA. 2000;284:585-591
The 1996-97 National Firearms Agreement (NFA) in Australia introduced strict gun laws, primarily as a reaction to the mass shooting in Port Arthur, Tasmania in 1996, where 35 people were killed. Despite the fact that several researchers using the same data have examined the impact of the NFA on firearm deaths, a consensus does not appear to have been reached. In this paper, we re-analyze the same data on firearm deaths used in previous research, using tests for unknown structural breaks as a means to identifying impacts of the NFA. The results of these tests suggest that the NFA did not have any large effects on reducing firearm homicide or suicide rates.
Can Australia teach the US about gun control? Al Jazeera: The Stream
- K Beazley
Beazley, K. (2013). Can Australia teach the US about gun control? Al Jazeera: The Stream
(Aired 13 January 2013) http://stream.aljazeera.com/story/201301300132-0022514
Homicide in Australia: 2006-07 National Homicide Monitoring Program annual report
- J Dearden
- W Jones
Dearden, J., & Jones, W. (2008). Homicide in Australia: 2006-07 National Homicide Monitoring Program annual report. Australian Institute of Criminology: Canberra.
Finding what works in health care: Standards for systematic reviews
- J Eden
- L Levit
- A Bird
Eden, J., Levit, L., & Bird, A. (2011). Finding what works in health care: Standards for systematic reviews. Washington, D.C: National Academies Press.
Firearms and violent crime in New South Wales. Contemporary Issues in Crime and Justice
- J Fitzgerald
- S Briscoe
- D Weatherburn
Fitzgerald, J., Briscoe, S., & Weatherburn, D. (2001). Firearms and violent crime in New
South Wales. Contemporary Issues in Crime and Justice, 57, 1-8.
Funding of gun buyback scheme. Press release
- J Howard
Howard, J. (1996). Funding of gun buyback scheme. Press release, May 14, 1996 Canberra:
Australia: Office of the Prime Minister.