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Expanded trade and GDP data
Abstract
Many sources of economic data cover only a limited set of states at any given point in time. Data are often systematically missing for some states over certain time periods. In the context of conflict studies, economic data are frequently unavailable for states involved in conflicts, undermining the ability to draw inferences of linkages between economic and political interactions. For example, simply using available data in a study of trade and conflict and disregarding observations with missing data on economic variables excludes key conflicts such as the Berlin crisis, the Korean War, the Cuban Missile Crisis, and the Gulf War from the sample. A set of procedures are presented to create additional estimates to remedy some of the coverage problems for data on gross domestic product, population, and bilateral trade flows.
... Values above 0 represent senders larger than the target, while negative values indicate that the target has a larger economy than the sender. GDP data come from Gleditsch's dataset ( Gleditsch 2002( Gleditsch , 2013. ...
... Values above 0 represent senders larger than the target, while negative values indicate that the target has a larger economy than the sender. GDP data come from Gleditsch's dataset ( Gleditsch 2002( Gleditsch , 2013. ...
... I follow Peksen and Jeong (2022) in summing up the target's imports and exports with the sender and dividing the sum by the target's GDP. Import and export data also stem from Gleditsch (2013) . ...
Existing research shows that economic coercion successfully influences targeted states' behavior 38 percent of the time. This article integrates research on economic sanctions and foreign aid by assessing the relative effectiveness of two types of economic coercion: economic sanctions and foreign aid suspensions. It argues that suspending aid is more effective than adopting economic sanctions because (1) aid suspensions are economically beneficial for the adopting state, while sanctions are costly, (2) aid suspensions directly affect the targeted government's budget, (3) market forces undermine sanctions but not aid sus-pensions, and (4) aid suspensions are less likely to spark adverse behavioral reactions. A quantitative analysis estimates the success rate of imposed aid suspensions to be 44 percent and that of economic sanctions to be 26 percent. The results are robust across two alternative datasets on economic coercion, and qualitative evidence corroborates the outlined mechanisms. The findings suggest that economic sanctions are less effective than previously thought and that large donor states have a higher chance of achieving political goals through economic coercion.
Las investigaciones existentes demuestran que la coerción económica influye con éxito en el comportamiento de los Estados objetivo el 38 percent de las veces. Este artículo integra la investigación, tanto en materia de las sanciones económicas como en materia de la ayuda exterior, mediante la evaluación de la eficacia relativa de dos tipos de coerción económica: las sanciones económicas y las suspensiones de la ayuda exterior. El artículo argumenta que la suspensión de la ayuda es más eficaz que la adopción de sanciones económicas debido a que: (1) las suspensiones de la ayuda son económicamente beneficiosas para el Estado que adopta las medidas, mientras que las sanciones son costosas, (2) las suspensiones de la ayuda afectan directamente al presupuesto del Gobierno objetivo, (3) las fuerzas del mercado debilitan las sanciones pero no las suspensiones de la ayuda, y (4) es menos probable que las suspensiones de la ayuda provoquen reacciones adversas a nivel de comportamiento. Estimamos, mediante un análisis cuantitativo, que la tasa de éxito de las suspensiones de las ayudas impuestas es del 44 percent y que la de las sanciones económicas es del 26 percent. Los resultados resultan sólidos a lo largo dos conjuntos de datos alternativos sobre coerción económica, y las pruebas cualitativas corroboran los mecanismos descritos. Las conclusiones sugieren que las sanciones económicas son menos efectivas de lo que se pensaba y que los grandes Estados donantes tienen una mayor probabilidad de lograr objetivos políticos a través de la coerción económica.
La recherche existante montre que la coercition économique a réellement une influence sur le comportement des États cibles 38 percent du temps. Cet article intègre la recherche sur les sanctions économiques et l'aide étrangère en évaluant l'efficacité relative des deux types de coercition économique : les sanctions économiques et la suspension de l'aide étrangère. Il affirme que la suspension des aides revêt une efficacité supérieure à l'adoption de sanctions économiques parce que (1) la suspension des aides est avantageuse sur le plan économique pour le pays qui adopte cette mesure tandis que les sanctions sont coûteuses, (2) la suspension des aides a une incidence directe sur le budget du gouvernement cible, (3) les forces du marché sapent les sanctions, mais non la suspension des aides, et (4) la suspension des aides a moins de chance de déclencher des comportements indésirables en réaction. Une analyse quantitative estime le taux de réussite de l'imposition de suspensions d'aides à 44 percent, et celui des sanctions économiques à 26 percent. Les résultats restent vrais dans deux ensembles de données alternatifs sur la coercition économique, et les preuves qualitatives confirment les mécanismes décrits. Les conclusions suggèrent que les sanctions économiques sont moins efficaces que l'on ne le pensait et que les grands États donateurs ont plus de chances d'atteindre leurs objectifs politiques par la coercition économique.
... First, we controlled for factors related to popular discontent. We included logged GDP per capita and growth rate of GDP per capita in the year of a coup to consider the level of socioeconomic development and economic situation, respectively (Gleditsch 2002). A coup against a democracy can provoke citizens more than a coup against autocracy. ...
... Specifically, we included a dummy variable for whether an election was held within six months after a coup. Next, we included the growth rate of GDP per capita in the year prior to the coup to account for the possibility that the success or failure of the administration's economic management before the coup would affect public protests after the coup (Gleditsch 2002). Finally, we included a dummy variable for whether there had been a failed coup within the past two years, taken from Thyne et al. (2018), to consider the possibility that regimes with frequent coup attempts have less legitimacy and that citizens are less likely to protest when they are overthrown. ...
... Shannon et al. (2015: p. 371) noted that more economically developed countries have closer economic and political ties with other countries; therefore, the international community reacts more strongly to coups in highly developed countries. Thus, we controlled for logged GDP per capita, obtained from Gleditsch (2002). Additionally, major powers or international organizations have different interests in each region and may react differently to a coup depending on the region. ...
The likelihood that a military coup may result in unfavorable reactions, such as domestic citizen protests, international condemnation, and sanctions, varies depending on the circumstances. How can we explain such variations in domestic and international reactions? This study focuses on the presence or absence of postcoup proclamations by the military that their rule would only be temporary and theorizes the impact of these promises on domestic and international reactions to the coup. Specifically, this study hypothesizes that postcoup promises suppress anti-regime protests and negative reactions from the international community, but this effect is limited to the post-Cold War period. These arguments have been verified through statistical analyses using a newly constructed dataset of postcoup proclamations and illustrative case analyses.
... As a first dataset, we have considered the World Trade Web (WTW) across a period of 51 years, i.e. from 1950 to 2000. The dataset in [27] collects yearly, bilateral, aggregated data on exports and imports (the generic entry m agg ij (y) is the sum of the single commodity-specific trade exchanges between i and j during the year y). The binary, directed representation of the WTW we have considered here has been obtained by linking any two nodes whenever the corresponding element m agg ij (y) is strictly positive, i.e. a ij (y) = Θ[m agg ij (y)]. ...
... The recipe to estimate the unknown parameters comes from another principle, i.e. the likelihood maximization one. Upon maximizing the function L = ln P (A T ) (27) with respect to the unknowns (i.e. x in the undirected case and { x, y} in the directed case) the systems of equations 11 and 13 are recovered. ...
Link-prediction is an active research field within network theory, aiming at uncovering missing connections or predicting the emergence of future relationships from the observed network structure. This paper represents our contribution to the stream of research concerning missing links prediction. Here, we propose an entropy-based method to predict a given percentage of missing links, by identifying them with the most probable non-observed ones. The probability coefficients are computed by solving opportunely defined null-models over the accessible network structure. Upon comparing our likelihood-based, local method with the most popular algorithms over a set of economic, financial and food networks, we find ours to perform best, as pointed out by a number of statistical indicators (e.g. the precision, the area under the ROC curve, etc.). Moreover, the entropy-based formalism adopted in the present paper allows us to straightforwardly extend the link-prediction exercise to directed networks as well, thus overcoming one of the main limitations of current algorithms. The higher accuracy achievable by employing these methods - together with their larger flexibility - makes them strong competitors of available link-prediction algorithms.
... Since the decision to reconcile rests with both states, even those in the less dependent state must be incentivized to push for a change. These data come from Gleditsch's (2002) trade and GDP dataset. This variable captures market size and should be correlated with shorter periods of diplomatic estrangement. ...
... The second alternative specification is per-capita GDP (GDP/population) from Gleditsch (2002), and the natural log was taken in order to reduce skewedness. This replaces GDP and as with previous variables, the "weak link" assumption will be followed and the results for poorer state in the dyad will be reported. ...
The issue of rapprochement between former adversaries has received scant scholarly attention meaning there is little understanding of why some foes reconcile quickly, while others remain hostile for decades. Moreover, a specific facet of reconciliation, diplomatic normalization, while a crucial part of diplomacy, has not been explained by scholarly work. This study advances research on diplomatic normalization while proposing a novel theory of reconciliation involving Kantian elements: commerce, democracy, and law. Specifically, the paper proposes that significant economic incentives generate domestic lobbies in favour of normalization, while democratic norms and international institutions generate trust and transparency. This theory is tested on a new dataset that includes all potential cases of reconciliation after warfare since World War II. Survival analysis shows that market size, shared democracy, and joint international organization membership are significantly related to faster reconciliation. The causal mechanisms are examined in a case study of US—Vietnamese rapprochement. The policy implications for these findings and the limitations for political leaders are also discussed.
... The restricted network, however, has a core-periphery structure, particularly heterogeneous and a few countries are the most influential economies in global trade. Fagiolo et al. (2010) used a dataset from Gleditsch (2002) which covers expanded trade and GDP data. They studied an undirected weighted trade network approach to study the trade network. ...
... These countries' connections may be due to geographical locations or existing preferential trade agreements. Maeng et al. (2012) used the Gleditsch (2002) dataset and concluded that most of the countries trade among themselves, and hence, the trade network is extremely dense and close to a fully connected network. In addition, Maeng et al. (2012) identified the dominant trading partners using the minimal spanning tree method. ...
In recent years, there has been a spectacular increase in trade and FDI flows. This increase in trade and FDI flows is not only between countries already linked in the past but also between countries with newly created links as reported by Fagiolo (in: Victor, Montgomery, Lubell (eds) The Oxford handbook of political networks. Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2006). This has led to a complex network of trade and FDI that connects many countries. This paper investigates the link between FDI and trade using techniques from network analysis. We study the features of the two networks and investigate whether a country’s economic size and geographical distance play an important role in network formation. We study the Trade and FDI networks over four periods and find that the two networks are strongly related to each other. Further, we find that the trade network is guided by the country’s geographic distance, while the location of a country does not seem to affect the FDI network. However, both networks can be explained by the country’s economic size.
... Therefore, the fully specified interaction between donor ideology and recipient characteristics must include terms with need × strategic. 6 Controls for other recipient characteristics include: population, logged real gross domestic product per capita (Gleditsch, 2002), democracy-autocracy score (Marshall et al., 2019), oil production (Ross, 2013), and whether it currently holds a rotating seat on the UN Security Council (Dreher et al., 2009). On the donor side, we control for economic growth (Gleditsch, 2002) and coalition status. ...
... 6 Controls for other recipient characteristics include: population, logged real gross domestic product per capita (Gleditsch, 2002), democracy-autocracy score (Marshall et al., 2019), oil production (Ross, 2013), and whether it currently holds a rotating seat on the UN Security Council (Dreher et al., 2009). On the donor side, we control for economic growth (Gleditsch, 2002) and coalition status. For dyads, we include the estimated ideal point distance from UNGA voting records (Bailey et al., 2013) and a cubic polynomial of the years receiving or not receiving aid. ...
National executives in Western democracies are not unilateral deciders: they lead parties with long-term policy priorities and manage challenging multiparty coalitions. Leaders of donor states use foreign aid to pursue their goals, including enacting policy output consistent with party ideology. Because preferences for international engagement condition the effect of left–right ideology and coalition government incorporates actors with distinct preferences, we predict that left-pro-internationalist prime ministers and development ministers prefer aiding the neediest recipients while right-internationalists emphasize trade opportunities. Our statistical analysis of OECD donor–potential recipient dyads demonstrates the utility of unpacking democratic domestic politics’ effect on leader incentives and decisions.
... We follow Bearce and Bondanella (2007) in the selection of control variables for the analysis of convergence of foreign policy preferences. The analysis controls for: extra-Igo contact, defined as the lower number of diplomatic missions maintained by the two states (Bayer, 2006); domestic political difference, as the absolute difference between the higher and the lower Polity 2 scores (Marshall et al., 2014);dyadic trade, capturing the lower of the two bilateral trade/gross domestic product (GDP) ratios in the dyad (Barbieri et al., 2009;Barbieri and Keshk, 2016);relative economic development as the ratio between the log of the higher and the lower GDP per capita levels of the dyad members (Gleditsch, 2002); relative economic size, measuring the log of the larger dyad member's GDP relative to that of the smaller one (Gleditsch, 2002); relative military power as the log of the higher military capability of the two dyad members divided by the lower one (Greig and Enterline, 2017;Singer et al., 1972); joint military alliance in form of a binary variable taking the value 1 when a military alliance (including ententes, neutrality pacts and defence pacts) is present between dyad members and otherwise 0 (Gibler, 2009); the dichotomous variable Cold War taking the value of 1 for dyad-years before 1991 and otherwise 0; geographical distance, capturing the distance in miles between the capitals of the two states in the dyad (Gleditsch, 2013) and colonial relationship in form of a binary variable taking the value of 1 if such relationship is present and otherwise (Hensel, 2014). ...
... We follow Bearce and Bondanella (2007) in the selection of control variables for the analysis of convergence of foreign policy preferences. The analysis controls for: extra-Igo contact, defined as the lower number of diplomatic missions maintained by the two states (Bayer, 2006); domestic political difference, as the absolute difference between the higher and the lower Polity 2 scores (Marshall et al., 2014);dyadic trade, capturing the lower of the two bilateral trade/gross domestic product (GDP) ratios in the dyad (Barbieri et al., 2009;Barbieri and Keshk, 2016);relative economic development as the ratio between the log of the higher and the lower GDP per capita levels of the dyad members (Gleditsch, 2002); relative economic size, measuring the log of the larger dyad member's GDP relative to that of the smaller one (Gleditsch, 2002); relative military power as the log of the higher military capability of the two dyad members divided by the lower one (Greig and Enterline, 2017;Singer et al., 1972); joint military alliance in form of a binary variable taking the value 1 when a military alliance (including ententes, neutrality pacts and defence pacts) is present between dyad members and otherwise 0 (Gibler, 2009); the dichotomous variable Cold War taking the value of 1 for dyad-years before 1991 and otherwise 0; geographical distance, capturing the distance in miles between the capitals of the two states in the dyad (Gleditsch, 2013) and colonial relationship in form of a binary variable taking the value of 1 if such relationship is present and otherwise (Hensel, 2014). ...
International parliamentary institutions (IPIs), which give parliamentarians regular opportunities to communicate with their foreign counterparts, have become a common feature in global governance. Recent research has shed light on why IPIs are created, on the similarities and differences in their institutional design, and on the reasons that lead members of national parliaments to engage with them. By contrast, there is little systematic empirical research on whether and how IPIs affect global politics. This article addresses this question by assessing their ability to influence states in relation to the position they take on issues of global concern and to how they treat their own citizens. The study identifies several mechanisms of IPI influence, leading to the hypothesis that more frequent opportunities for parliamentarians to interact with their foreign counterparts within IPIs leads in time to greater similarity in the foreign policy positions expressed by their governments and affects how those governments protect the civil rights of their citizens. A statistical analysis spanning multiple international organizations, member states, and decades indicates that IPIs offer a distinct contribution to convergence in foreign policy. By contrast, participation in IPIs is not robustly associated with civil rights protections. The finding that IPIs can be consequential on which policies governments promote internationally even though such institutions typically lack substantial authority may be encouraging for advocates of further international parliamentarization and specifically the creation of a United Nations parliamentary assembly.
... The surprise-based formalism presented in this paper can be also employed in a hierarchical fashion to highlight either nested communities or nested bimodular structures. To clarify this point, let us consider the World Trade Web (WTW) in the year 2000 as a case study 36 . First, let us run W == to highlight the core portion of the weighted version of such a network; as Fig. 10 shows, the bipartition distinguishes countries with a large strength from those whose trade volume is low (basically, a bunch of African, Asian and South-American countries). ...
... upon maximizing it with respect to z, one finds z ¼ y xþy : hence, one can pose q ' W VþW and q i ' w i 36 . a, b upon running W == in a hierarchical fashion, a core-within-the-core is detected, revealing that the richest world countries (i.e. ...
The importance of identifying mesoscale structures in complex networks can be hardly overestimated. So far, much attention has been devoted to detect modular and bimodular structures on binary networks. This effort has led to the definition of a framework based upon the score function called ‘surprise’, i.e. a p-value that can be assigned to any given partition of nodes. Hereby, we make a step further and extend the entire framework to the weighted case: six variants of surprise, induced by just as many variants of the hypergeometric distribution, are, thus, considered. As a result, a general, statistically grounded approach for detecting mesoscale network structures via a unified, suprise-based framework is presented. To illustrate its performances, both synthetic benchmarks and real-world configurations are considered. Moreover, we attach to the paper a Python code implementing all variants of surprise discussed in the present manuscript. Financial networks are perhaps the best example of complex systems affected by their mesoscopic structural organization, such as resilience to the propagation of shocks or to the failure of nodes, but only a limited type of mesoscopic structures signature have so far been identified and analysed. This study presents a statistically validated method for mesoscale structures detection based upon the score function called ‘surprise’.
... Remarkably, the surprise-based formalism presented in this paper can be employed in a hierarchical fashion to highlight either nested communities or nested 'bimodular' structures. To clarify this point, let us consider the World Trade Web (WTW) in the year 2000 as a casestudy [33]. First, let us run W to highlight the core portion of the weighted version of such a network; as fig. ...
... Its name is 'SurpriseMeMore' -the name recalls the package released in 2014 [34] -and is freely downloadable at the following URL: https://github.com/EmilianoMarchese/SurpriseMeMore. [33]. Top panels: upon running W in a hierarchical fashion, a 'core-within-the-core' is detected, revealing that the richest world countries (i.e. ...
The importance of identifying the presence of mesoscale structures in complex networks can be hardly overestimated. So far, much attention has been devoted to the detection of communities, bipartite and core-periphery structures on binary networks; such an effort has led to the definition of a unified framework based upon the score function called surprise, i.e. a p-value that can be assigned to any given partition of nodes, on both undirected and directed networks. Here, we aim at making a step further, by extending the entire framework to the weighted case: after reviewing the application of the surprise-based formalism to the detection of binary mesoscale structures, we present a suitable generalization of it for detecting weighted mesoscale structures, a topic that is still largely under-explored. To this aim, we analyze four variants of the surprise; from a technical point of view, this amounts at employing four variants of the hypergeometric distribution: the binomial one for the detection of binary communities, the multinomial one for the detection of binary `bimodular' structures and their negative counterparts for the detection of communities and `bimodular' structures on weighted networks. On top of that, we define two `enhanced' variants of surprise, able to encode both binary and weighted constraints and whose definition rests upon two suitable generalizations of the hypergeometric probability mass function. As a result, we present a general, statistically grounded approach to detect mesoscale structures on networks via a unified, suprise-based framework. To illustrate the performance of our methods, we report the results of their application to several real-world networks, including social, economic, financial and ecological ones. Moreover, we attach to the paper a Python code implementing all versions of the surprise considered in the present work.
... The IMF Dataset's variable on 10 This variable is measured in GDP per capita (US$). It is based on Gleditsch (2002Gleditsch ( , 2008, with data from the Penn World Table version 9.0 (Feenstra, Inklaar and Timmer 2015) to complete missing information. 11 We use the Revised Combined Polity Score according to the Polity IV Project dataset version p4v2015 (Marshall, Gurr and Jaggers 2016). ...
... We employ international trade data provided by [15] to build a time-sequence of weighted directed networks [see Ref. 16, for details]. Our sample refers to T = 20 years (1981)(1982)(1983)(1984)(1985)(1986)(1987)(1988)(1989)(1990)(1991)(1992)(1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000) and N = 159 countries. ...
This paper studies the topological properties of the World Trade Web (WTW) and its evolution over time by employing a weighted network analysis. We show that the WTW, viewed as a weighted network, displays statistical features that are very different from those obtained by using a traditional binary-network approach. In particular, we find that: (i) the majority of existing links are associated to weak trade relationships; (ii) the weighted WTW is only weakly disassortative; (iii) countries holding more intense trade relationships are more clustered.
... Let us now consider the World Trade Web (WTW) [17]. The main reason we include it in our analysis is its link density: being much denser than the other networks considered so far, it also allows us to better understand the relationship between In-foRank and the degree sequence(s). ...
Information is a valuable asset for agents in socio-economic systems, a significant part of the information being entailed into the very network of connections between agents. The different interlinkages patterns that agents establish may, in fact, lead to asymmetries in the knowledge of the network structure; since this entails a different ability of quantifying relevant systemic properties (e.g. the risk of financial contagion in a network of liabilities), agents capable of providing a better estimate of (otherwise) unaccessible network properties, ultimately have a competitive advantage. In this paper, we address for the first time the issue of quantifying the information asymmetry arising from the network topology. To this aim, we define a novel index - InfoRank - intended to measure the quality of the information possessed by each node, computing the Shannon entropy of the ensemble conditioned on the node-specific information. Further, we test the performance of our novel ranking procedure in terms of the reconstruction accuracy of the (unaccessible) network structure and show that it outperforms other popular centrality measures in identifying the "most informative" nodes. Finally, we discuss the socio-economic implications of network information asymmetry.
... We include this measure in logarithmic form for the sender as well as the receiver. The real GDP data is measured in thousands USD and are taken from Gleditsch (2013b). The data are merged from the year 2011 on with recent real GDP data from the World Bank real GDP dataset (see World Bank, 2017). ...
In the paper we analyse dependence structures among international trade flows of major conventional weapons from 1952 to 2016. We employ a Network Disturbance Model commonly used in inferential network analysis and spatial econometrics. The dependence structure is represented by pre-defined weight matrices that allow for relating the arms trade flows from the network of international arms exchange. Several different weight matrices are compared by means of the AIC in order to select the best dependence structure. It turns out that the dependence structure among the arms trade flows is rather complex and can be represented by a specification that, simply speaking, relates each arms trade flow to all exports and imports of the sending and the receiving state. By controlling for explanatory variables we are able to show the influence of political and economic variables on the volume traded.
... As a second application, we considered the World Trade Web (WTW) from the Gleditsch dataset [23], which reports the international trade flows (imports and exports) among all the world countries. We selected the year 2000 (the most recent one) and removed the states that were not reported in the BACI-CEPII GeoDist [24] as we would use the geographical distances to coarsegrain the WTW. ...
Lying at the interface between Network Science and Machine Learning, node embedding algorithms take a graph as input and encode its structure onto output vectors that represent nodes in an abstract geometric space, enabling various vector-based downstream tasks such as network modelling, data compression, link prediction, and community detection. Two apparently unrelated limitations affect these algorithms. On one hand, it is not clear what the basic operation defining vector spaces, i.e. the vector sum, corresponds to in terms of the original nodes in the network. On the other hand, while the same input network can be represented at multiple levels of resolution by coarse-graining the constituent nodes into arbitrary block-nodes, the relationship between node embeddings obtained at different hierarchical levels is not understood. Here, building on recent results in network renormalization theory, we address these two limitations at once and define a multiscale node embedding method that, upon arbitrary coarse-grainings, ensures statistical consistency of the embedding vector of a block-node with the sum of the embedding vectors of its constituent nodes. We illustrate the power of this approach on two economic networks that can be naturally represented at multiple resolution levels: namely, the international trade between (sets of) countries and the input-output flows among (sets of) industries in the Netherlands. We confirm the statistical consistency between networks retrieved from coarse-grained node vectors and networks retrieved from sums of fine-grained node vectors, a result that cannot be achieved by alternative methods. Several key network properties, including a large number of triangles, are successfully replicated already from embeddings of very low dimensionality, allowing for the generation of faithful replicas of the original networks at arbitrary resolution levels.
... For many years, the economic literature has predominantly concentrated on economic growth, denoting the progressive augmentation of a nation's capacity to manufacture goods and services. It is typically measured by an increase in a country's GDP (Saymeh and Orabi 2013), the most common indicator of a country's economic growth (Gleditsch 2002). Various factors can drive economic growth, including population and labor force increases, technological advancements, infrastructure, and education investments, and productivity improvements. ...
An economy’s primary objective is to foster high economic growth, ultimately enhancing the well-being of its citizens. Recent economic strategies have increasingly emphasized trade-oriented policies to achieve this goal. This study delves into the nexus between Saudi seaborne trade (measured in tons) and gross domestic product (GDP), aiming to determine any causal relationship between these economic variables. Using datasets from the Saudi Central Bank and the General Authority of Statistics, this research employs rigorous unit root, cointegration, and causality tests to find the intricate interplay between trade and economic growth in Saudi Arabia. The empirical analysis highlights a robust long-term relationship between Saudi GDP and seaborne trade, suggesting cointegration. Specifically, the findings reveal a significant impact of economic growth on seaborne trade, as indicated by a trade elasticity of 1.08, which implies that changes in GDP yield a substantial shift in trade. For instance, a 1% increase in GDP corresponds to an approximate 1.08% increase in trade volume. The error correction mechanism also illustrates the dynamic adjustment process: deviations of Saudi seaborne trade and economic growth from equilibrium are corrected by 61% and 43%, in the subsequent year. Furthermore, Granger causality tests unveil bidirectional causality between GDP and trade, elucidating that economic growth changes precede trade volume alterations and vice versa. Thus, fostering international trade not only stimulates income but also bolsters the domestic economy of Saudi Arabia.
... Data is "facts, images, or sounds that may or may not be relevant or useful for a particular task." Data can be categorized into five primary forms: items that are numeric or alphabetical, textual in the form of letters or a race of sentences that carry meaning in them, pictures of various kinds, audio and video that combine sound and image, and other data depend on touch, smell, and taste (Gleditsch, 2002). Concerning the importance of data, some consider it more than just raw materials in the information system, as its concept has expanded among managers and specialists as it is a valuable resource of the enterprise's resources. ...
THE ROLE OF KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT IN HIGHER EDUCATION QUALITY ASSURANCE
“Applied Study at Public Jordanian Universities”
... For the first two hypotheses (Hypotheses 1a and 1b), we capture the level of trade dependence of the partner country as the share of the bilateral trade volume with the EU in percentage of its total GDP. The data sources are the International Monetary Fund's Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) and the complementary dataset by Gleditsch (2002) to maximize coverage. We take the average of the three years preceding the signature of a PTA to account for the fact that PTA negotiations often take several years. ...
The European Union (EU) increasingly seeks cooperation with transit and sending countries to prevent irregular migration and enforce returns. Yet, these countries have little incentives to engage in such cooperation. To overcome interest asymmetries, the EU has sought to link trade and migration control in its preferential trade agreements (PTAs). Drawing on a comprehensive dataset of migration provisions in all PTAs signed between 1960 and 2020 and a qualitative analysis of key policy documents, we show that the inclusion of such provisions does not follow patterns of interdependence and strategic priorities resulting from problem pressure. Rather, the proliferation of migration control provisions in EU PTAs is best explained by the institutional framework guiding the negotiation of these provisions. Whilst reflecting the political will to use PTAs as a ‘carrot’ to incite third‐country cooperation, these findings also show the limits of targeted action on migration control via commercial policies.
... Our control/matching variables fall under three categories. Economic variables (annual GDP growth, GDP per capita, official exchange rate, total foreign exchange reserves, net FDI inflow, college-educated women in labor force, population growth) are obtained from World Bank and Gleditsch (2002). The political/institutional variables (Polity IV score, regime durability, foreign policy stance) are from the Polity IV (Marshall et al., 2016) and UN Voting Datasets (Voeten, 2013). ...
Geopolitical crises, and economic sanctions, in particular, have created considerable disturbance in natural resource markets. This study focuses on a significant consequence of this disturbance, namely how sanctions may derail targeted states from their low-carbon pathways. Increasing capital costs and difficulties in accessing technology force sanctioned states to move away from capital-and technology-intensive greener alternatives to employ more carbon-intensive (predominantly coal) generation modes in their primary energy supply. We also show that the recovery process from sanctions further increases coal use in these targeted states. Our econometric results from a global cross-sectional time-series dataset support our expectations. Our findings call for a deeper understanding of the challenges in achieving sustainable recovery in the aftermath of geopolitical crises. These results call for assessing carbon-footprint implications of specific foreign policy actions before these actions are carried out.
... Our hypotheses mobilize some independent variables. The strength of trade connections (H1) is measured as the share of the bilateral trade volume of the signing parties' GDP, using expanded IMF trade data (Gleditsch, 2002) and GDP statistics from the World Bank. The trade volume can either be calculated based on export figures-Free on Board (FOB)or on import figures-Cost, Insurance, and Fright (CIF). ...
Intense pressure for international solutions and weak support for multilateral cooperation have led the EU to increasingly rely on its strongest foreign policy tool in the pursuit of migration policy goals: preferential trade agreements (PTAs). Starting from the fragmentary architecture of the migration regime complex we examine how the relevant content of the EU PTAs relates to multilateral institutions. Depending on the constellation of policy objectives, EU competence, and international interdependence, we propose a set of hypotheses regarding the conditions under which EU bilateral outreach via PTAs expands, complements, or substitutes international norms. Based on an original dataset of migration provisions in all EU PTAs signed between 1960 and 2020, we find that the migration policy content in EU PTAs expands or complements the objectives of multilateral institutions only to a very limited extent. Instead, the predominant constellation is one of substitution in which the EU uses its PTAs to promote migration policy objectives that depart from those of existing multilateral institutions.
... Darüber hinaus ist es wahrscheinlicher, dass Widerstandskampagnen stattfinden, wenn wirtschaftliche Missstände in der Bevölkerung stärker verbreitet sind (Celestino & Gleditsch, 2013;Chenoweth & Lewis, 2013;. Unsere Variable zur Messung der Höhe des Pro-Kopf-BIP verwendet eine aktualisierte Version der von Kristian Skrede Gleditsch (2002) zusammengestellten "Expanded Trade and GDP Data", welche logarithmiert wurde. ...
... Darüber hinaus ist es wahrscheinlicher, dass Widerstandskampagnen stattfinden, wenn wirtschaftliche Missstände in der Bevölkerung stärker verbreitet sind (Celestino & Gleditsch, 2013;Chenoweth & Lewis, 2013;. Unsere Variable zur Messung der Höhe des Pro-Kopf-BIP verwendet eine aktualisierte Version der von Kristian Skrede Gleditsch (2002) zusammengestellten "Expanded Trade and GDP Data", welche logarithmiert wurde. ...
... The wealth variable is measured as the GDP per capita of a country in a given year. We use an updated version of Gleditsch's (2002) expanded GDP data. The Correlates of War's (COW) Composite Index of National Capability score is used to measure countries' national capability. ...
Recent scholarly efforts to reveal the political effects of transnational terrorism are encouraging. They contribute to our understanding of how terrorism affects the targeted societies. We attempt to extend this line of research by examining the political impact of domestic terrorism. Domestic incidents overwhelmingly outnumber transnational incidents. In addition, the differences between domestic and transnational incidents may produce political outcomes. We examine the impact of domestic terrorism on the political survival of national leaders in the targeted societies. Our cross-national time-series analysis on a worldwide sample of 172 countries over the 1970–2014 period shows that domestic terrorism has a significant positive impact on leadership change. This impact is robust to various estimation techniques. This result suggests that heightened incidents of domestic terrorism hasten the removal of incumbent leaders in the targeted societies.
... The effectiveness of the two classes of models considered in the present paper to reproduce the topological properties of the World Trade Web has been tested on two different datasets, i.e. the Gleditsch one (covering 11 years, from 1990 to 2000 [45]) and the BACI one (covering 11 years, from 2007 to 2017 [46]). To carry out our analyses, we have built the ensemble induced by each model as follows. ...
In the study of economic networks, econometric approaches interpret the traditional Gravity Model specification as the expected link weight coming from a probability distribution whose functional form can be chosen arbitrarily, while statistical-physics approaches construct maximum-entropy distributions of weighted graphs, constrained to satisfy a given set of measurable network properties. In a recent, companion paper, we integrated the two approaches and applied them to the World Trade Web, i.e. the network of international trade among world countries. While the companion paper dealt only with discrete-valued link weights, the present paper extends the theoretical framework to continuous-valued link weights. In particular, we construct two broad classes of maximum-entropy models, namely the integrated and the conditional ones, defined by different criteria to derive and combine the probabilistic rules for placing links and loading them with weights. In the integrated models, both rules follow from a single, constrained optimization of the continuous Kullback-Leibler divergence; in the conditional models, the two rules are disentangled and the functional form of the weight distribution follows from a conditional, optimization procedure. After deriving the general functional form of the two classes, we turn each of them into a proper family of econometric models via a suitable identification of the econometric function relating the corresponding, expected link weights to macroeconomic factors. After testing the two classes of models on World Trade Web data, we discuss their strengths and weaknesses.
... The variable is then transformed into a dummy taking the value of 1 for strong groups, that is, when the power ratio is above 1. Following Polo and Gleditsch (2016), who investigated under what conditions rebels are more prone to use terrorist tactics, we control for country-level characteristics such as the level of democracy (Marshall and Jaggers, 2002), population size and gross domestic product per capita (GDP PC, Gleditsch, 2002) given that these factors are consistently fund by previous works as predictors of terrorist tactics by the rebels. In terms of conflict features -to avoid that our findings are led by diverse conflict dynamics -we control for the number of conflict actors involved in the civil war, the level of violence against civilians (one-sided violence, OSV) and battlefield clashes (Cunningham et al., 2009) and whether rebels receive external support. ...
Recent research suggests that UN peacekeeping operations (PKOs) reduce conventional violence. However, rebel groups have been increasingly using a combination of conventional and non-conventional violence, for example, terrorism. Little is known about whether and under which conditions PKOs shape rebels’ incentives to resort to more terrorism. At the same time, existing research on the use of terrorism in civil wars primarily focuses on domestic factors, thus overlooking the impact of external shocks such as the deployment of PKOs. We argue that PKOs can have critical unintended consequences inducing tactical adaptation in rebel violence as they alter the government-rebels balance of power. Particularly, rebel groups that are militarily strong prior to the UN arrival are incentivized to escalate terrorist violence to overcome the physical barrier imposed by PKO forces and improve their bargaining position vis-à-vis the government. Weaker groups, which in the absence of PKOs are more likely to use terrorism, have not only limited capacity but also fewer incentives to escalate terrorism when PKOs deploy. Leveraging new disaggregated data on rebel terrorist attacks during civil wars, we provide the first global actor-level analysis of the relationship between PKO deployments and changes in rebels’ tactical preferences for terrorist violence. We find that, conditional on initial government-rebels power relations, PKOs can make terrorism the weapon of the strong. Our study sheds light on the unintended effects of peacekeeping, the causes of terrorism, and offers important policy implications for several current PKOs deployed in the midst of violence.
... O trabalho de Gleditsch (2002) propõe um modelo de análise das relações comerciais bilaterais entre países a partir de uma metodologia de análise de redes sociais (Social Network Analysis -SNA). Os dados dos Gráficos 1 e 2 são uma aplicação de dados de comércio internacional entre países selecionados (matriz de comércio bilateral importação mais exportação). ...
O objetivo do artigo é discutir alguns desafios para o projeto brasileiro de desenvolvimento, baseado no consumo de massas dos três últimos Planos Plurianuais, que consiste na busca de equacionamento entre a ampliação da renda nacional através do trabalho, com aumento da empregabilidade e eliminação da precarização do trabalho. A pesquisa procura avaliar e comparar alguns indicadores sobre qualidade no emprego formal, tal como definido pela proposta da Organização Internacional do Trabalho (OIT) para a Agenda do Trabalho Decente, em conjunto com dados que mostram a trajetória de inserção do Brasil no comércio internacional. O estudo levanta questões sobre as possibilidades de se garantir uma política de maior inserção no processo de globalização e, ao mesmo tempo, rever as consequências diretas da internacionalização da produção e do comércio sobre a qualidade do trabalho e a geração de renda. O texto conclui apontando que a formação de uma política de desenvolvimento centrada na ampliação do mercado interno, com propostas de expansão do consumo de massas, requer a definição de metas, não apenas de empregabilidade, mas voltadas à formação de empregos que atendam aos direitos fundamentais dos trabalhadores, seguindo os parâmetros da Agenda do Trabalho Decente. PALAVRAS-CHAVES: Desenvolvimento. Trabalho Decente. Indicadores de Monitoramento.DEVELOPMENT, GLOBALIZATION AND DECENT WORK Ronaldo Baltar The aim of this article is to discuss challenges being faced by the Brazilian development project, which has been based on the mass consumption of the last three Multiyear Plans, which have sought to strike a balance between the increased income of Brazilian workers, greater employability, and the elimination of job instability. This study attempts to assess and compare indicators of formal job quality as defined by the proposal by the International Labour Organization (ILO) of a Decent Work Agenda, together with data which show the trajectory of Brazil’s entry into the foreign trade arena. The paper raises issues about the possibilities of guaranteeing a policy of a greater role in the globalization process while re-evaluating the direct consequences of the internationalization of production and trade on the quality of work and generation of income. The text concludes by pointing out that development policy formation centered on a larger domestic market, with proposals for expanding mass consumption, means the redefinition of goals, not only for employability, but also creating jobs that fulfill workers’ fundamental rights, in accordance with the parameters of the Decent Work Agenda. KEY WORDS: Development. Decent work. Monitoring indicators.DÉVELOPPEMENT, MONDIALISATION ET TRAVAIL DÉCENT Ronaldo Baltar Le but de cet article est de mener une discussion concernant certains défis du projet brésilien de développement, en nous basant sur la consommation de masse des trois derniers Plans Pluriannuels. Ce projet se veut de trouver l’équation entre l’expansion des revenus nationaux par le travail et l’augmentation des offres d’emploi ainsi que l’élimination de la précarisation du travail. La recherche a pour but d’évaluer et de comparer quelques indicateurs concernant la qualité des emplois formels, tels que définis par la proposition de l’Organisation Internationale du Travail (OIT) pour un Agenda du Travail Décent, en les mettant en rapport avec les données qui indiquent la trajectoire d’insertion du Brésil au sein du commerce international. L’étude soulève des questions sur les possibilités de garantir une politique de meilleure insertion dans le processus de mondialisation et, en même temps, de revoir les conséquences directes de l’internationalisation de la production et du commerce sur la qualité du travail et la génération de revenus. En conclusion le texte fait remarquer que la formation d’une politique de développement centrée sur l’expansion du marché interne, avec des propositions d’augmentation de la consommation de masse, suppose la définition d’objectifs, non seulement pour l’emploi, mais axés sur la création d’emplois qui répondent aux droits fondamentaux des travailleurs, respectant les paramètres de l’Agenda pour le Travail Décent. MOTS-CLÉS: Développement. Travail décent. Indicateurs de surveillance. Publicação Online do Caderno CRH no Scielo: http://www.scielo.br/ccrh Publicação Online do Caderno CRH: http://www.cadernocrh.ufba.br
... 35. For the temporal dynamics studies we combined the BACI dataset from 1998 to 2011 and the GLEDTISCH dataset from 1960 to 1997 [53] to have a longer observation period. ...
Over the last two decades, network theory has shown to be a fruitful paradigm in understanding the organization and functioning of real-world complex systems. One technique helpful to this endeavor is identifying functionally influential subgraphs, shedding light on underlying evolutionary processes. Such overrepresented subgraphs, motifs, have received much attention in simple networks, where edges are either on or o. However, for weighted networks, motif analysis is still undeveloped. Here, we proposed a novel methodology|based on a random walker taking a fixed maximum number of steps|to study weighted motifs of limited size. We introduce a sink node to balance the network and allow the detection of configurations within an a priori fixed number of steps for the random walker. We applied this approach to different real networks and selected a specific null model based on maximum-entropy to test the significance of weighted motifs occurrence. We found that identified similarities enable the classifications of systems according to functioning mechanisms associated with specific configurations: economic networks exhibit close patterns while differentiating from ecological systems without any a priori assumption.
... Variables "Military Regime," "Party Regime," "Personalist Regime," and "Democracy" are coded as 1 if a military, party, personalist, democratic regime there is in place respectively, and 0 otherwise. The next control variables are the country's "GDP per Capita (log)" and "GDP Growth" from Gleditch dataset (Gleditsch 2002) to control for a country's level of development and economic conditions. The next set of control variables are "Military Expenditure (log)," "Percent Change in Military Expenditure," and "Military Personnel (log)" to control for characteristics of militaries. ...
Why does the military in some countries get involved in the economy by running profit-making enterprises and what leads governments to permit such involvement? Running household appliance factories, transportation agencies, banks, hotels, etc., are indeed unrelated to national security and are far removed from the regular roles assigned to militaries. Such involvement has further implications for both politics and the economy. I argue that the process of military involvement in the economy functions as a survival strategy for leaders and a profit-making scheme for the military. Using original cross-national data on the emergence of military involvement in the economy, this research demonstrates that militaries are more likely to get involved in the economy when the military’s institutional interests are at risk and when the government has to rely on the military to maintain power. Leaders allow the military to benefit financially through economic activities in order to stay in power.
... Silahlanma yarışı modeli potansiyel düşman veya müttefiklerinin askeri harcamalarının, ülkenin askeri harcamalarının temel belirleyicisi olduğunu öne sürer (Richardson, 1960 (Gleditsch, 2002). Üçüncü olarak, devletin nüfusunun büyüklüğü bir yandan doğal bir güvenlik alanı sağlarken diğer yandan devletin kamu ve sosyal harcamalarını arttırmasına da neden olarak savunma harcamalarını kısıtlayabilir. ...
Ekonomik yaptırımlar yaptırıma maruz kalan devletin askeri kapasitesini arttırır mı? Ekonomik yaptırımları uygulayan devletler, ekonomik sopalar ile hedef devletin kaynaklarını daraltmayı ve onu zorlayarak belirli politikalarını değiştirmeyi amaçlarlar. Ekonomik yaptırımlar sonucunda kaynakları daralan devlet ilgili alandaki politika değişikliğini kabul eder ve yaptırımların etkisinden kurtulmuş olur. Ancak ekonomik yaptırımların dış politikada etkin araçlar olup olmadığı konusu ise tartışmalıdır. Beklenen çıktıların aksine ekonomik yaptırımların birçok alanda hedef ülkede beklenmeyen sonuçlar doğurduğu gözlemlenmiştir. Ekonomik yaptırımların hedef devlete yönelik zarar verici etkilerine odaklanan bu tez, dış ve iç politika modeli oluşturarak ekonomik yaptırımlarla askeri kapasite arasında ilişki kurmayı amaçlamaktadır. 1960-2000 yılları arasında panel veri kullanılarak yapılan analiz, ekonomik yaptırımların hedef ülkenin savunma harcamalarında artışa neden olduğunu göstermektedir. Ekonomik yaptırımlar insan hakları ihlallerini önlemek, askeri çatışmaları engellemek ya da savaş aşamasına gelmeden sorunları çözmek amacıyla uygulansa da hedef devletin silahlanarak baskı seviyesini arttırması ülke içerisinde hem kaynakların verimsiz kullanımına hem de olası askeri çatışmaların şiddetinin artmasına neden olmaktadır.
... is the reciprocity coefficient. Several empirical studies have used r(G) as a summary statistic to describe the reciprocity level for different types of networks, such as the world trade web [16,34], neural networks [44], email networks [14,29], and social networks [19]. Examples of values for the reciprocity coefficient for different networks are given at http://konect.cc/statistics/ and show a wide range of values in the interval [0, 1]; actual values depend on the dataset and the type of network being sampled. ...
Reciprocity in social networks helps understand information exchange between two individuals, and indicates interaction patterns between pairs of users. A recent study indicates the reciprocity coefficient of a classical directed preferential attachment (PA) model does not match empirical evidence. In this paper, we extend the classical 3-scenario directed PA model by adding an additional parameter that controls the probability of creating a reciprocal edge. Our proposed model also allows edge creation between two existing nodes, making it a more realistic choice for fitting to real datasets. In addition to analysis of the theoretical properties of this PA model with reciprocity, we provide and compare two estimation procedures for the fitting of the extended model to both simulated and real datasets. The fitted models provide a good match with the empirical tail distributions of both in- and out-degrees. Other mismatched diagnostics suggest that further generalization of the model is warranted.
... As such, economic conditions may influence the effect of conscription on coup risk. I use two GDP variables with information from Gleditsch (2002) and the World Bank to measure the effect of wealth on coup risk. The Change in GDP per capita variable captures the percent year-to-year change in GDP. ...
This study suggests that conscription produces an unappreciated side effect in domestic politics as it increases the likelihood of coup d’état in anocratic regimes. Utilizing data from 1950 to 2016, the study measures the impact of conscription on coup risk in anocracies and non-anocracies and provides significant evidence that conscription increases the probability of a coup attempt in anocracies. I do not argue that conscripts stage military coups. Instead, conscription increases coup risk in anocracies because it increases the ties of the armed forces with society and enables the general public or interest groups to organize their collective action within the armed forces. This academic endeavor aims to expand our understanding on the impact of the armed forces on the prospects of military intervention, delineate the socialization aspect of conscription, and to broaden our knowledge on civil–military relations in non-democratic regimes.
... Population Size reflects the natural log of the population. Both estimates are taken from Gleditsch (2002). Because our data is largely time invariant, we take the mean value of these measures for the years of the conflict episode. ...
We investigate the potential relationship between female combatants and conflict duration. We contend that recruiting female combatants extends war duration via its influence on state–rebel bargaining. The recruitment and deployment of female combatants contribute to divergent perspectives between the rebels and the incumbent regarding the rebel group’s capabilities and the depth of its resolve, which impedes successful bargaining and extends the duration of the conflict. Results from duration analyses using data on the estimated prevalence of female combatants in rebel groups active between 1964 and 2011 support our central hypothesis and suggest that the use of female fighters is associated with longer conflicts.
... In particular, the first set of values reads α i ∼ U(0, 1) , ∀ i. Performance testing The performance of the three algorithms to solve the system of equations defining the UECM has been tested on a bunch of real-world networks. In particular, we have considered the WTW during the decade 1990-2000 41 . Since the weights defining the configurations of the WTW are real numbers, we have rounded them to the nearest integer value, before running the UECM. ...
Exponential Random Graph Models (ERGMs) have gained increasing popularity over the years. Rooted into statistical physics, the ERGMs framework has been successfully employed for reconstructing networks, detecting statistically significant patterns in graphs, counting networked configurations with given properties. From a technical point of view, the ERGMs workflow is defined by two subsequent optimization steps: the first one concerns the maximization of Shannon entropy and leads to identify the functional form of the ensemble probability distribution that is maximally non-committal with respect to the missing information; the second one concerns the maximization of the likelihood function induced by this probability distribution and leads to its numerical determination. This second step translates into the resolution of a system of O(N) non-linear, coupled equations (with N being the total number of nodes of the network under analysis), a problem that is affected by three main issues, i.e. accuracy, speed and scalability. The present paper aims at addressing these problems by comparing the performance of three algorithms (i.e. Newton’s method, a quasi-Newton method and a recently-proposed fixed-point recipe) in solving several ERGMs, defined by binary and weighted constraints in both a directed and an undirected fashion. While Newton’s method performs best for relatively little networks, the fixed-point recipe is to be preferred when large configurations are considered, as it ensures convergence to the solution within seconds for networks with hundreds of thousands of nodes (e.g. the Internet, Bitcoin). We attach to the paper a Python code implementing the three aforementioned algorithms on all the ERGMs considered in the present work.
... From a merely econometric point of view, the simplest exercise that can be carried out is that of reproducing the positive weights of the WTW. To this aim, we have considered the dataset curated by Gleditsch [54], which includes yearly trade volumes, yearly GDP values (both reported in millions of US dollars) and the (time-independent) matrix of geographic distances between capital cities of all countries in the data. We have selected the snapshot of year 2000, for which the number of countries is the largest and equal to 176. ...
The World Trade Web (WTW) is the network of international trade relationships among world countries. Characterizing both the local link weights (observed trade volumes) and the global network structure (large-scale topology) of the WTW via a single model is still an open issue. While the traditional Gravity Model (GM) successfully replicates the observed trade volumes by employing macroeconomic properties such as GDP and geographic distance, it, unfortunately, predicts a fully connected network, thus returning a completely unrealistic topology of the WTW. To overcome this problem, two different classes of models have been introduced in econometrics and statistical physics. Econometric approaches interpret the traditional GM as the expected value of a probability distribution that can be chosen arbitrarily and tested against alternative distributions. Statistical physics approaches construct maximum-entropy probability distributions of (weighted) graphs from a chosen set of measurable structural constraints and test distributions resulting from different constraints. Here we compare and integrate the two approaches by considering a class of maximum-entropy models that can incorporate macroeconomic properties used in standard econometric models. We find that the integrated approach achieves a better performance than the purely econometric one. These results suggest that the maximum-entropy construction can serve as a viable econometric framework wherein extensive and intensive margins can be separately controlled for, by combining topological constraints and dyadic macroeconomic variables.
... 15 I measure a country's economic environment based on its economic development. As an economy prospers, it should encounter fewer terrorist incidents stemming from economic grievances (Boylan 2016;Choi 2014Choi , 2015Choi and 2019Li 2005 Gleditsch (2002), measuring it as logged GDP per capita, adjusted for purchasing power parity. ...
Whether or not nationalism fuels terrorist violence by ethnic groups is an important yet underexplored research question. This study offers a theoretical argument, empirical analysis and a case study. When political leaders such as presidents and prime ministers use nationalism to shore up legitimacy, they threaten the existence of disfavored ethnic groups. In turn, those groups are more likely to respond with terrorist attacks. The author tests this argument using a sample of 766 ethnic groups across 163 countries from 1970 to 2009. The multilevel mixed-effects negative binomial regression results provide evidence that leader nationalism is a significant driver of ethnic terrorism. The detrimental effect of nationalism remains the same after using a generalized method of moments method to account for possible reverse causality. A case study of Sinhalese nationalist leaders versus Tamil Tigers also supports the nationalism and terrorism nexus.
Globalization processes interweave economic structures at a worldwide scale, trade playing a central role as one of the elemental channels of interaction among countries. Despite the significance of such phenomena, measuring economic globalization still remains an open problem. More quantitative treatments could improve the understanding of globalization at the same time that help a formal basis for comparative economic history. In this letter, we investigate the time evolution of the statistical properties of bilateral trade imbalances between countries in the trade system. We measure their cumulative probability distribution at different moments in time to discover a sudden transition circa 1960 from a regime where the distribution was always represented by a steady characteristic function to a new state where the distribution dilates as time goes on. This suggests that the rule that was governing the statistical behavior of bilateral trade imbalances until the 60's abruptly changed to a new form persistent in the last decades. In the new regime, the figures for the different years collapse into a universal master curve when rescaled by the corresponding global gross domestic product value. This coupling points to an increased interdependence of world economies and its onset corresponds in time with the starting of the last globalization wave.
Change point detection in dynamic networks aims to detect the points of sudden change or abnormal events within the network. It has garnered substantial interest from researchers due to its potential to enhance the stability and reliability of real-world networks. Most change point detection methods are based on statistical characteristics and phased training, and some methods are required to set the percent of change points. Meanwhile, existing methods for change point detection suffer from two limitations. On one hand, they struggle to extract snapshot features that are crucial for accurate change point detection, thereby limiting their overall effectiveness. On the other hand, they are typically tailored for specific network types and lack the versatility to adapt to networks of varying scales. To solve these issues, we propose a novel unified end-to-end framework called Variational Graph Gaussian Mixture model (VGGM) for change point detection in dynamic networks. Specifically, VGGM combines Variational Graph Auto-Encoder (VGAE) and Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) through joint training, incorporating a Mixture-of-Gaussians prior to model dynamic networks. This approach yields highly effective snapshot embeddings via VGAE and a dedicated readout function, while automating change point detection through GMM. The experimental results, conducted on both real-world and synthetic datasets, clearly demonstrate the superiority of our model in comparison to the current state-of-the-art methods for change point detection.
This article evaluates how territorial autonomy affects ethnic mobilization and conflict during regime transitions. Previous research has highlighted its conflict-inducing role during prominent transition contexts. Alternatively, it has shown its pacifying role in the “average” case, without distinguishing transition periods from stable contexts. Addressing these gaps, we argue that the de-escalatory consequences of autonomy depend on critical stabilizing factors which are themselves “muted” during transitions. We test our expectations in a cross-national analysis, covering all regime transitions between 1946 and 2017. We also revisit the 1989 transition from Communism, focusing on the role of “inherited” autonomy in the post-communist successor states. This enables us to address concerns whereby autonomy is offered to ward off transitions or whereby transitions are themselves induced by mobilization. Our findings indicate that during transitions, territorial autonomy increases the likelihood of ethnic mobilization, government concessions in response, and violent escalation where these are not forthcoming.
While liberal democracies do not go to war with other democracies, they frequently engage in conflict with autocratic regimes. Little research has been conducted, however, to indicate what type of autocracies liberal democracies tend to target. This article demonstrates that liberal democracies are more likely to initiate conflict against personalist regimes, rather than autocracies with some form of collective leadership. I argue that, when a conflict of interest arises between a liberal democracy and a personalist regime, liberal foreign policy elites’ psychology and social identity work together to produce particular emotional responses, predisposing them to favor coercive action against personalist regimes. This paper presents new quantitative evidence regarding patterns in democratic–personalist conflict and introduces process evidence from US foreign policy decision-making during the Gulf Crisis.
Agricultural product trade along the Belt and Road (B&R) is an important part of the international food security system, the vulnerabilities of which have been highlighted by the recent COVID-19 pandemic. Based on the complex network analysis, this study analyzes the characteristics of agricultural products trade network along the B&R. It also combines the effects of COVID-19 with the import trade volume of agricultural products in countries along the B&R to build a risk supply model of agricultural products. The results show that: (1) In 2021, the spatial correlation structure of agricultural products trade along the B&R became increasingly sparse, and the network connectivity and density also decreased. (2) The network showed obvious scale-free distribution characteristics and obvious heterogeneity. Five communities emerged under the influence of the core node countries, but the formation of community in 2021 had obvious geopolitical characteristics. (3) Under the influence of the COVID-19 epidemic, the number of countries with medium-risk and high-risk level along the route facing external dependence risk (REDI), import concentration risk (RHHI) and COVID-19 epidemic risk (RRICI) increased in 2021, and the number of countries with extremely low-risk level decreased. (4) The dominant risk type of external supply of agricultural products along the route changed from compound risk type in 2019 to epidemic risk in 2021. Hence, the results can be expected to prevent external risk impact from reducing excessive concentration of agricultural products trade and excessive dependence on the external market.
Today most researchers agree that democratic regimes are superior in producing technological innovations to authoritarian regimes, despite the fact that the question of the influence of the type of political regime on economic growth and its most important component, such as innovative activity, remains debatable. At the same time, there are several alternative, although not mutually exclusive, hypotheses about what causes this superiority. One hypothesis suggests institutions that ensure political competition, and above all, competitive elections, are of key importance. According to another hypothesis, the main prerequisite for innovative development lies in the provision for rights and freedoms of citizens. The article attempts to test these hypotheses empirically in order to determine which one of them possesses a greater explanatory power. To perform this task, the author employed a method of multi-level regression, which allows taking into account factors at the level of countries, as well as that of individual firms. The research conducted by the author shows that the presence of competitive elections is not a sufficient condition for innovative development. In contrast, the provision of civil freedoms is a statistically significant predictor. Thus, the liberal aspect of democracy is more important than its electoral aspect for producing technological innovations.
Энэхүү боть нь эдгээр хүнд хэцүү цаг үеийн ардчилсан тэмцлийн янз бүрийн талыг нь шинжлэн судлав. Үүний эхний хэсэгт нь Хүйтэн дайны дараах ардчилагдах үйл явцын хамгийн бага судлагдсан хэсэг болох Монгол улс дахь ардчилагдах үйл явцыг судлав. Хоёрдугаар хэсэгт дэлхийн бусад улс орнуудад өрнөсөн ардчилсан тэмцлийг хамарсан дүн шинжилгээг өргөжүүлж, ялангуяа олборлох салбараас эдийн засгийн хувьд хамааралтай байдаг Монгол болон бусад улс орнуудын хувьд гол асуудал болоод байгаа байгалийн баялгийн засаглалыг авч үзлээ. Энэхүү номыг бүтээхэд хувь нэмэр оруулагчдыг олон өөр улс орнууд, салбарууд, мэргэжлийн үе шатуудын хүрээнд олж сонгосон билээ. Тэд олон янзын алсын харааны өнцгөөс ардчиллын дутуу судлагдсан талуудыг тодорхой болгохын тулд, маш харилцан бие биенээ нөхсөн байдлаар, өөр өөр арга барил, аргачлалуудыг ашиглан ажилласан байна.
We study the structure of the international trade hypergraph consisting of triangular hyperedges representing the exporter–importer–product relationship. Measuring the mean hyperdegree of the adjacent vertices, we first find its behaviors different from those in the pairwise networks and explain the origin by tracing the relation between the hyperdegree and the pairwise degree. To interpret the observed hyperdegree correlation properties in the context of trade strategies, we decompose the correlation into two components by identifying one with the background correlation remnant even in the exponential random hypergraphs preserving the given empirical hyperdegree sequence. The other component characterizes the net correlation and reveals the bias of the exporters of low hyperdegree towards the importers of high hyperdegree and the products of low hyperdegree, which information is not readily accessible in the pairwise networks. Our study demonstrates the power of the hypergraph approach in the study of real-world complex systems and offers a theoretical framework.
Network robustness measures how well network structure is strong and healthy when it is under attack, such as vertices joining and leaving. It has been widely used in many applications, such as information diffusion, disease transmission, and network security. However, existing metrics, including node connectivity, edge connectivity, and graph expansion, can be suboptimal for measuring network robustness since they are inefficient to be computed and cannot directly apply to the weighted networks or disconnected networks. In this paper, we define the R-energy as a new robustness measurement for weighted networks based on the method of spectral analysis. R-energy can cope with disconnected networks and is efficient to compute with a time complexity of O(|V|+|E|), where V and E are sets of vertices and edges in the network, respectively. Our experiments illustrate the rationality and efficiency of computing R-energy: (1) Removal of high degree vertices reduces network robustness more than that of random or small degree vertices; (2) it takes as little as 120 s to compute for a network with about 6M vertices and 33M edges. We can further detect events occurring in a dynamic Twitter network with about 130K users and discover interesting weekly tweeting trends by tracking changes to R-energy.
One of the main questions about presidential democracies is to what extent the legislature influences executive governance. However, less well‐known in this literature is the influence of opposition parties in policy‐making and government formation processes. We argue that, in multiparty presidential governments, more concentrated opposition forces in the legislature, as opposed to more fragmented, lead to higher government spending and greater chances of coalition formation. Facing more united opposition, presidents who are concerned about passing their agenda in the legislature are willing to pay the price to hold their ruling party or governing coalition together in tighter unity. We test this logic by analyzing data on government spending and cabinet formation in all multiparty presidential democracies in East and Southeast Asia and find strong support for it, controlling for several political and economic variables. Our analysis further shows that chief executives' electoral incentives strongly shape their budget spending and cabinet appointments.
This volume analyzes different facets of democratic struggles in these challenging times. Its first section addresses the democratization process in Mongolia, one of the least-studied cases of post-Cold War democratization. The second section broadens the analysis to cover democratic struggles in other parts of the world and considers in particular the governance of natural resources, which is a key concern for Mongolia and other countries that rely economically on the extractive sector. Its contributors are drawn from a range of different countries, disciplines and career stages. They use different approaches and methodologies in highly complementary ways to shed light on underexamined facets of democracy from a variety of perspectives.
Anomaly detection in dynamic networks aims to find network elements with significantly different behaviors from the vast majority. Most existing methods focus on one specific task, that is, only detect anomalies of one type of element isolated, so they lose the ability to model the correlation and driving mechanism between different abnormal behavior. Considering that the anomaly detection of one type of element is helpful to other types of elements. In this paper, we propose a unified Generation model to analyze the dynamic network for Exploring the Abnormal Behaviors of different Scales (GEABS). It can model the relation and catch different levels of anomaly with a joint statistical network model and detect the community structure and its evolution. Specifically, we denote the parameters of node popularity, community membership to generate the dynamic network, we also describe the varying of node and community by dynamic process. It can detect the change point on network, temporal evolution on community and abnormal behavior on node level synchronously, besides, it also detects the community structure effectively. We also propose an effective optimization algorithm with variational inference. Experimental results show that the GEABS achieves better performance on abnormal behavior and community structure compared with baselines.
`Globalization' has largely superseded the term `economic interdependence' to describe the rapidly growing links between nations, economies, and societies. The effects that the internationalization of the world system has on social equality, the environment, and economic growth are, however, still largely disputed. In this article, we discuss the literature that covers another intensively debated issue and which attempts to assess the relationship between trade and interstate conflict. Although liberal economists maintain that economic interdependence exerts an unconditionally pacifying influence on interstate relations, we show that the most recent formal work expects that trade will have a negligible and, in the perspective of one important model at least, even an amplifying effect on conflict. Much empirical work, by contrast, supports the claim that the relationship between trade and conflict is direct and not mitigated by contextual factors. We review the different controversies on the link between economic interdependence and militarized disputes and outline some major challenges that have not yet been adequately dealt with in the scientific study of war and peace.
This article investigates the long-standing liberal hypothesis that trade ties facilitate interstate peace. Rather than assuming that trade will always promote peace, the author highlights the need to consider both the nature and context of economic linkages in assessing whether such ties are more likely to dampen or amplify interstate conflict. The study encompasses a diverse group of dyadic relationships for the period 1870-1938, 14,341 dyad years, and includes 270 militarized interstate disputes and 14 wars. After controlling for the potentially confounding influences of contiguity, regime type (joint democracy), relative capabilities, and alliance commitments, the author finds evidence that economic linkages have a dramatic influence on whether or not dyads engage in militarized disputes, but no influence on the occurrence of wars. Rather than inhibiting conflict, extensive economic interdependence increases the likelihood that dyads will engage in militarized interstate disputes. Peace through trade is most likely to arise among dyads composed of mutually dependent trading partners. Even then, the relationship between interdependence and conflict appears to be curvilinear, where low to moderate degrees of interdependence reduce the likelihood of dyadic disputes, and extensive economic linkages increase the probability of militarized disputes. Extreme interdependence, whether symmetrical or asymmetrical, has the greatest potential for increasing the likelihood of conflict.
The Penn World Table displays a set of national accounts economic time series covering many countries. Its expenditure entries
are denominated in a common set of prices in a common currency so that real quantity comparisons can be made, both between countries and over time. It also provides information about relative prices
within and between countries, as well as demographic data and capital stock estimates. This updated, revised, and expanded
Mark 5 version of the table includes more countries, years, and variables of interest to economic researchers. The Table is
available on personal computer diskettes and through BITNET.
Some recent analyses challenge previous reports which show that economically important trade significantly reduces the probability of militarized disputes between countries. Beck et al. (1998) address the effect of temporal dependence in the time-series data on empirical support for the liberal peace, while Barbieri (1998) makes a number of important changes in theoretical specification and measurement. Using data for nearly the entire post-World War II era (1950-92), we first replicate the specifications of the challengers. When analyzing all dyads, we find no relationship between interdependence and peace, but the pacific benefits of trade become evident among the politically relevant dyads (those including a major power, or two contiguous states), among whom the great majority of disputes occur. Subsequently, we introduce, in stages, an alternative method of controlling for temporal dependence, our theoretically preferred measures of interdependence and proximity, and new dyadic estimates for unreported trade. With these sequential modifications we find increasingly strong support for the liberals' belief that economic interdependence and democracy have important pacific benefits. This support is largely robust to the methods of controlling for temporal dependence and to whether an attempt is made to explain involvement in disputes or merely their onset. We find no evidence that asymmetric trade increases conflict.
SUMMARY When making sampling distribution inferences about the parameter of the data, θ, it is appropriate to ignore the process
that causes missing data if the missing data are ‘missing at random’ and the observed data are ‘observed at random’, but these
inferences are generally conditional on the observed pattern of missing data. When making direct-likelihood or Bayesian inferences
about θ, it is appropriate to ignore the process that causes missing data if the missing data are missing at random and the
parameter of the missing data process is ‘distinct’ from θ. These conditions are the weakest general conditions under which
ignoring the process that causes missing data always leads to correct inferences.
We examine the criteria for membership in the international system as applied in the widely employed system membership list maintained by the Correlates of War Project. Some problems with existing classifications are illustrated and some analytical and empirical consequences of these problems are detailed. Using updated criteria and information, we develop a revised and updated list of the composition of the international system of nation state actors in world politics from the Congress of Vienna to the present.
Previous investigations which evaluated the accuracy of trade statistics were generally based on the partner country approach, i.e., a given country's reported exports (imports) were compared with a partner's reported imports (exports) with the objective of identifying major value differences and the reasons for these discrepancies. The present study employs a new methodology that focuses on the internal consistency of trade statistics. Four key questions are addressed: (1) are the data reported under different classification schemes (like SITC Revision 1 and 2) consistent at points where there are perfect correspondences between product groups: (2) are trade totals consistent with the sum of values reported for lower level products; (3) is total trade consistent with the sum of trade reported with individual partner countries; and (4) are trade values compiled by one reporting organization (United Nations) consistent with those of an alternative (IMF) agency. By performing these consistency tests annually from the early 1960s this study is able to assess trends in the reliability of trade data. The tests results should be extremely disquieting for data users. Differences of 100 percent (or more) are observed in some countries' (supposedly directly comparable) SITC Revision 1 and 2 trade totals with the average discrepancy for all developing countries' exports exceeding 60 percent in the early 1980s. Second, total trade figures are frequently found to be inconsistent with trade data for component products (i.e., the sum of trade in (say) three- or four-digit SITC products is often considerably more, or less, than a country;s reported trade) and such discrepancies persist in some country's data for more than 20 years. Third, there has been a clear deterioration in reporting the origin or destination of trade since 1980 as over 30 percent of developing countries' imports or exports are not properly allocated. Fourth, different international agencies sometimes report trade values for specific countries that differ by 100 percent or more. Such discrepancies appear especially important for the least developed countries, but there is evidence that the differences for all countries widened over the last decade.