Edward D. Mansfield is Associate Professor of Political Science at Columbia University and author of Power, Trade, and War (Princeton University Press, 1994).
Jack Snyder is Professor of Political Science and Director of the Institute of War and Peace Studies at Columbia University. His most recent book is Myths of Empire: Domestic Politics and International Ambition (Cornell University Press, 1991).
The authors thank Sergei Tikhonov for assistance with computer programming; Liv Mansfield for preparing the figures; Richard Betts, Miriam Fendius Elman, David Lake, Bruce Russett, Randall Schweller, David Spiro, Randall Stone, Celeste Wallander, and participants at seminars at Harvard and Columbia for helpful comments; and the Pew Charitable Trusts for financial support.
1. Michael Doyle, "Liberalism and World Politics," American Political Science Review, Vol. 80, No. 4 (December 1986), pp. 1151-1169; Bruce Russett, Grasping the Democratic Peace (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1993). For skeptical views, see David E. Spiro, "The Insignificance of the Liberal Peace," International Security, Vol. 19, No. 2 (Fall 1994), pp. 50-86; and Christopher Layne, "Kant or Cant: The Myth of the Democratic Peace," International Security, Vol. 19, No. 2 (Fall 1994), pp. 5-49. They are rebutted by Bruce Russett, "The Democratic Peace: 'And Yet It Moves'," International Security, Vol. 19, No. 4 (Spring 1995), pp. 164-175.
2. "Transcript of Clinton's Address," New York Times, January 26, 1994, p. A17; Anthony Lake, "The Reach of Democracy: Tying Power to Diplomacy," New York Times, September 23, 1994, p. A35.
3. Zeev Maoz and Bruce Russett, "Normative and Structural Causes of the Democratic Peace, 1956-1986," American Political Science Review, Vol. 87, No. 3 (September 1993), pp. 630, 636; they note that newly created democracies, such as those in Eastern Europe today, may experience conflicts, insofar as their democratic rules and norms are not adequately established. See also Russett, Grasping the Democratic Peace, p. 134, on post-Soviet Georgia.
4. Asa Briggs, Victorian People, rev. ed. (Chicago: University of Chicago, 1970), chaps. 2-3; Geoff Eley, Reshaping the German Right (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1980); Alain Plessis, De la fête impériale au mur des fédérés, 1852-1871 (Paris: Editions du seuil, 1973), translated as The Rise and Fall of the Second Empire, 1852-1871 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1985); Jack Snyder, Myths of Empire: Domestic Politics and International Ambition (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1991), chaps. 3-5.
5. Hans Ulrich Wehler, The German Empire, 1871-1918 (Dover, N.H.: Berg, 1985); Jack S. Levy, "The Diversionary Theory of War: A Critique," in Manus Midlarsky, ed., Handbook of War Studies (Boston: Unwin Hyman, 1989), pp. 259-288.
6. Joseph Schumpeter, Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy, 2d ed. (New York: Harper, 1947); Samuel P. Huntington, The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century (Norman: University of Oklahoma Press, 1991), pp. 5-13, esp. p. 6; see also Russett, Grasping the Democratic Peace, pp. 16-18, and Michael Doyle, "Liberalism and World Politics," esp. p. 1164.
7. Ted Robert Gurr, Polity II: Political Structures and Regime Change, 1800-1986, Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research No. 9263 (1990).
8. Russett, Grasping the Democratic Peace, p. 77; see also Maoz and Russett, "Normative and Structural Causes of the Democratic Peace, 1956-1986." This index is: PCON(DEM - AUT), where DEM is a state's score on the summary measure of democracy, AUT is a state's score on the summary measure of autocracy, and PCON is a measure of the extent to which power in a regime is monopolized by state authorities, which takes on values ranging from 0 to 10. This index therefore takes on values ranging from 100 (maximal democracy) to -100 (maximal autocracy).
9. More specifically, Russett classifies as democracies those states with values of the index of regime type described in footnote 8 ranging from 30 to 100, those with scores ranging from -25 to -100 as autocracies, and those with scores ranging from -24 to 29 as anocracies. See Russett, Grasping the Democratic Peace, p. 77; and Ted Robert Gurr, "Persistence and Change in Political Systems," American Political Science Review, Vol. 68, No. 4 (December 1974), pp. 1482-1504...