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Adapve Governance
for a Changing World
CIVIL SERVICE COLLEGE LECTURES
Edited by
Wu Wei Neng
Can governments and public policies
adapt to succeed and thrive in an
increasingly complex and contested
environment?
Drawing from lectures delivered at the
Civil Service College, Singapore, by
leading speakers in governance and
policy, economics, public engagement
and leadership and organisaon
development, this book highlights
new pathways and possibilies for
governments, along with innovave
tools like design thinking and
strategic futures. It represents an
invitaon for policymakers to pracce
adapve governance — more
resilient, responsive, collaborave
and entrepreneurial — in a rapidly
changing world.
ISBN: 978-981-09-7879-2
Adapve Governance for a Changing World Edited by Wu Wei Neng
Adapve Governance
for a Changing World
CIVIL SERVICE COLLEGE LECTURES
Edited by
Wu Wei Neng
ISBN: 978-981-09-7879-2
© 2016 Civil Service College, Singapore
All rights reserved. No part of this publicaon may be reproduced, stored in a
retrieval system, or transmied in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical,
photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permisssion of the copyright
holder, applicaon for which should be addressed to the Civil Service College.
For feedback or comments, please email cscollege_publishing@cscollege.gov.sg
Civil Service College
31 North Buona Vista Road, Singapore 275983
www.cscollege.gov.sg
About the Civil Service College
The Civil Service College, Singapore is a statutory board under the Public Service Division
with a mission to develop people for a rst-class Public Service. As the public sector’s
core instuon for training, learning, research and sta development, the College builds
strategic capacity in governance, leadership, public administraon and management for
a networked government in Singapore.
Naonal Library Board, Singapore Cataloguing-in-Publicaon Data
Names: Wu, Wei Neng, editor. | Civil Service College, Singapore, publisher.
Title: Adapve governance for a changing world / editor, Wu Wei Neng.
Other tles: Civil Service College lectures
Descripon: Singapore : Civil Service College, Singapore, [2015]
Ideners: OCN 930432184 | ISBN 978-981-09-7879-2
Subjects: LCSH: Public administraon. | Economic policy. | Social policy. | Polical
planning. | Leadership. | Organizaonal change.
Classicaon: LCC JF1351 | DDC 351--dc23
Typeset and printed in Singapore by Design Fusion Pte Ltd.
SECTION 1
GOVERNANCE AND POLICYMAKING IN A COMPLEX WORLD
Overview by Noel Bay 9
A New Generaon of Leaders: 13
Embrace Complexity, Harness Human Nature
Lecture by Eric Bonabeau, summary by Anuradha Shro
Innovaons in Governance and Leadership 21
Lecture by Augusne O’Donnell, summary by Vernie Oliveiro
The Art of Public Strategy 31
Lecture by Geo Mulgan, summary by Celine Lim
SECTION 2
STATE-MARKET RELATIONSHIPS AND ECONOMIC POLICY
Overview by Charmaine Tan 43
Capitalism 4.0: The Birth of a New Economy 49
Lecture by Anatole Kaletsky, summary by Charmaine Tan
The Return of Industrial Policy 59
Lecture by Dani Rodrik, summary by Alisha Gill
Falling Behind: Income Inequality and Middle Class Disaecon 71
Lecture by Robert Frank, summary by Amanda Chan
Evoluon, Economics and the Origin of Wealth: 83
How Complexity Changes the Way We Think about the Economy
Lecture by Eric Beinhocker, summary by Charmaine Tan
CONTENTS
FOREWORD vii
INTRODUCTION 1
SECTION 3
SOCIAL CHALLENGES, SOCIAL POLICY AND
THE EVOLVING SOCIAL COMPACT
Overview by Alisha Gill 99
E Pluribus Unum: Diversity and Community in the 21st Century 107
Lecture by Robert Putnam, summary by Jeanne Conceicao
Achieving Inclusive Growth 125
Lecture by David Autor and Alan Manning, summary by Amanda Chan
Addressing Complex Social Challenges: 143
Why We Get Stuck and How to Get Unstuck
Lecture by Adam Kahane, summary by Alisha Gill
Creang Public Innovaon through Collaboraon: 151
Government, Business and the Social Services Sector
Lecture by Peter Shergold, summary by Cheryl Wu
SECTION 4
ROBUST AND EFFECTIVE PUBLIC POLICY CYCLES
Overview by Wu Wei Neng 165
Innovaon in Government: Leveraging Design to Radically 173
Improve Public Policies and Services
Lecture by Chrisan Bason, summary by Noel Bay
Recent Developments in Thinking about the Future: 187
An Overview for Policymakers
Lecture by Riel Miller, summary by Anuradha Shro
Applying Behavioural Insight 201
Lecture by David Halpern, summary by Celine Lim
SECTION 5
TRANSFORMING INSTITUTIONS:
LEADERSHIP AND ORGANISATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
Overview by Wu Wei Neng 211
Leadership in Our Time: The Era of “Truthiness” and Twier 219
Lecture by Howard Gardner, summary by Kharina Zainal
A New Culture of Learning: Culvang the Imaginaon 229
for a World of Constant Change
Lecture by John Seely Brown, summary by Noel Bay
Formulang an OD Plan and Impacng Organisaon 241
Performance from a Systemic Perspecve
Lecture by Mee-Yan Cheung-Judge, summary by Anuradha Shro
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 251
ABOUT THE EDITOR 252
ABOUT THE CONTRIBUTORS 253
INDEX 255
Recent Developments in Thinking
about the Future: An Overview
for Policymakers
Summary by Anuradha Shro*
Dr Riel Miller is currently with the United Naons Educaonal,
Scienc and Cultural Organisaon (UNESCO) in Paris. He is the
former Head of Foresight at UNESCO. His career spans 13 years at the
Organisaon for Economic Co-operaon and Development (OECD),
in the Directorates of Economics; Science and Technology; Educaon;
Territorial Development; and Internaonal Futures Programme;
almost a decade in the senior management with a range of ministries
in the Government of Ontario; and 7 years running an independent
consultancy, Xperidox Futures Consulng. His primary experse is
the design and implementaon of processes that use the future to
understand the present.
* This arcle was revised by Dr Miller to include a number of talks and workshops he
conducted from 2010 to 2014 for policymakers in dierent parts of the world.1 One of
these was his lecture at the Civil Service College on 17 March 2010, menoned above.
Lecture by Riel Miller
187
“Raonality works best, that is, we generally get the kind
of results that we want, in a world where the choices are
very limited. Now, the reason for that is very simple. When
you structure the environment by rules, laws, and tools and
techniques, the players are constrained in certain direcons.
It is the constraints on the actors that help the decision-
maker. The more unconstrained the environment, through
lack of an eecve arcial structure, the more dicult it is
for people to make choices or to implement their choices in
eecve ways.”
- Douglass North,
“Dealing with a Non-Ergodic World:
Instuonal Economics, Property Rights,
and the Global Environment”,
Duke Environmental and Law Policy Forum,
Vol. X, No. 1, Fall 1999
My aim in this lecture is to provide a snapshot of some the recent
thinking about why and how we can use the future for decision-making,
inside and outside of government. I want to start with an overview of
some of the reasons why we invest in thinking about the future and
then go on to discuss in greater detail the recent developments in the
theory and pracce of using the future for decision-making.
Reasons for Invesng in Thinking about the Future
Why do the governments of certain countries decide to think about
the future of their society in more explicit and self-searching ways?
In my experience there are a number of factors. One is size: smaller
countries have a heighted awareness of inter-dependency and hence
the need to think out loud about strategic choices. Another is historical
experience: countries that have undergone periods of rapid catch-up
like Korea, Ireland and Finland are not only sensive to the potenal
for signicant change but also to what comes next. What happens
once a country catches up with leading edge social, economic and
technological condions? What happens when imitaon and the best
pracces of other countries no longer oer sucient inspiraon or
guidance? Finally, there are some governments which realise they are
not alone in pursing the current policy consensus; every jurisdicon
in the world might be chasing similar goals, using similar policies,
hoping for beer and faster innovaon, coming up with producve
research and development, invesng more in educaon, cung-edge
informaon technology, etc. And so they ask: will everyone win the
race? And even if they succeed, will there be more jobs or less? All
these quesons can movate governments to engage in more in-
depth exploraons of the future.
Events can also encourage a wide range of social actors to invest in
thinking about the future. For instance, the 2008–2009 nancial crisis
sparked such eorts from a pre-empve or preventave perspecve.
Oen when things break down there is a tendency to revisit the past,
to wonder where mistakes were made. If something had been done
dierently, could the crisis have been avoided? Why did the economists
not see the crisis coming? Are there ways to avoid a similar crisis or
breakdown in the future? What then needs to be done to ensure that
the experts and visionary leaders are suciently prescient to navigate
a safe passage through crises? All these quesons generate many
opportunies to conduct new research and consultaons about the
future. Yet, as many praccing members of the futures community
can aest, things go back to “normal” aer a while and the interest in
thinking about the future tapers o.
Today there are addional reasons to invest in thinking about the
future: a growing appreciaon and understanding of the complex
emergent nature of reality and our growing desire and capacity
to embrace freedom. For decision-making systems, the crical
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ADAPTIVE GOVERNANCE FOR A CHANGING WORLD ROBUST AND EFFECTIVE PUBLIC POLICY CYCLES
dierence is the extent to which the openness or non-determinisc
character of complexity and freedom is taken into account. For a long
me, decision-making systems and processes were designed to work
with systems assumed to have a high degree of closure. A chess game
is a good example of the systemic assumpons underpinning these
approaches: it is complicated but highly bounded and is a closed
system of given resources, rules and goals. Assuming that reality is
currently a closed system and will remain closed in the future, makes
decision-making easier. In this context computers and stascal data
systems can be very helpful, though this approach can run into trouble
if the theory underlying the model or the quality of the data is poor.
Yet the premise for this kind of decision-making is that we treat reality
as if it was a closed system. However, reality is not a closed system —
it is open and creave!
Because of this, we need a beer understanding of the dierences
and implicaons of integrang complexity into decision-making
systems. How does one take into account “unknowable unknowns”2
or “new” aspects of the present that were previously impossible
to include or address from within exisng closed frameworks? In
short, it is important to take complexity into account today, not only
because we know that the future is not necessarily determined by
the past3, but, more crucially, because we want to embrace freedom
in all its indeterminacy and diversity. Happily, these values seem
to correspond to the basic characteriscs of our emergent and
ancipatory universe, and constute a major reason for developing
humanity’s capacity to understand and use ancipatory systems — in
other words, the future.
This raonale for invesng in thinking about the future can be
illustrated easily if we think about economic transformaons
and nancial crises in complex, open and emergent, eco-system
terms. From this perspecve, banks can be thought of as sharks —
destrucve but also creave in the sense of seng up constraints
that generate and shape the failure or success of emergent
“unknowable unknowns”, at both micro and macro levels. Even the
excesses, the over- and under-shoong of speculaon and prudence,
can be seen as sources of serendipity and creavity — opening
up new, somemes wild opportunies. By taking an open eco-
systems perspecve, we transform both the incapacity to predict
and the inability to avoid failure, death and destrucon, into a way
of embracing complex emergence. Not only can we adopt a more
“realisc” perspecve by acknowledging that excess and failure are
“normal”, we can also embrace the posive side of uncertainty as
a source of both freedom and diversicaon, the laer being the
“gold standard” risk reducon strategy.
How does one reconcile the roles played by novelty and “creave
destrucon” when it comes to decision-making? Are we not obliged
to eventually close the systems we are analysing by adopng
simplifying assumpons and then, ulmately, making an irrevocable
bet? The answer is obviously “yes” and many methods that address
this challenge exist, as discussed extensively by many researchers.4
Much progress is being made; however, one potenally promising
contribuon to the integraon of openness into the decision-making
process arises from a beer understanding of how to use the future.
The main take-away is that a beer understanding of ancipatory
systems and the many dierent ways of “using-the-future” enable
decision-makers to signicantly improve their capacity to take into
account the incredible richness of a creave universe.
As the opening quote from the Nobel Prize winning economist
Douglass North makes clear, so-called raonal decision-making works
best when our choices are very limited. These are circumstances when
we assume that we can structure our understanding of the decision-
making context using a known and given set of rules, laws, tools and
techniques. Under such circumstances the players are constrained
in ways that facilitate a certain type of decision-making. In more
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ADAPTIVE GOVERNANCE FOR A CHANGING WORLD ROBUST AND EFFECTIVE PUBLIC POLICY CYCLES
unconstrained environments, such an approach can ignore crical
factors and miss both opportunies and threats that are outside or
marginal in the context of the assumed framework. In today’s world,
such approaches not only ignore the scienc consensus about
complex emergent reality but also fail to integrate our desire to
develop our capacity to be free.
Today there are addional reasons to
invest in thinking about the future: a
growing appreciaon and understanding
of the complex emergent nature of reality
and our growing desire and capacity to
embrace freedom.
“
”
Advancing the Integraon of Complexity into Decision-
making
Enhancing the integraon of complexity into the decision-making
process remains a signicant challenge to exisng approaches. Moving
forward calls for the recognion of the following four key points.
(1) It is essenal to disnguish search from choice. The processes
for creang a menu are not the same as that of selecng an item
on the menu. Obviously there are many points of interacon
between the arculaon and comprehension of choices and
the selecon of a parcular opon. However, when a choice is
made in the hope that it realises or avoids a parcular future
scenario, it is by necessity founded on a prior explicit or implicit
decision to adopt a set of ancipatory assumpons that closes
the system. This is because the future is not knowable; it does
not exist and can only be imagined by that set of ancipatory
assumpons describing the condions that might apply at a
later point in me. This is why processes that engage people in
arculang their ideas about the future quickly force into the
open the ancipatory assumpons that determine the contours
of such imaginary futures.
(2) The Discipline of Ancipaon (DoA), which I will further elaborate
upon later, oers an ancipatory systems perspecve on using
the future. It disnguishes between three dierent kinds of
future from the point of view of decision-making or conscious
ancipaon.5 The rst two types of ancipaon — preparaon
and planning — work within closed system assumpons, for
example, preparing for a conngent event like a disaster, or
planning a birthday party or the construcon of a bridge. The last
type of ancipaon involves the invenon of “open tomorrows”,
otherwise known as “creave” futures that incorporate novelty,
without necessarily applying such futures to the tasks of
preparaon or predicon. Disnguishing between these three
dierent uses of the future provides important analycal and
praccal clarity for the design and implementaon of eorts to
think about the future.
(3) New tools are being created and tested that make it easier to
detect, invent and make sense of the richness of specic,
ephemeral, novel reality. Unlike stascal or scale oriented
systems and processes, these methods are not seeking absolute
descripons of reality that remain constant over me. Rather the
aims and techniques of these “collecve intelligence knowledge
laboratories” facilitate the development of me-place specic
frameworks, models, variables, metrics and vocabularies. These
processes are about appreciang context and making sense of
the dierences and repeons that characterise the present.
Crically, this requires a paral suspension of what is known of
exisng closed systems and previous ancipatory assumpons.
Hence the importance, as an avenue to both sense-making and
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ADAPTIVE GOVERNANCE FOR A CHANGING WORLD ROBUST AND EFFECTIVE PUBLIC POLICY CYCLES
“making sense” of novelty, of being able to rst recognise the
ancipatory assumpons at the origin of the imaginary futures
we use to perceive reality and then to enhance our capacity to
invent new futures.
(4) Fourth, the role of developing Futures Literacy, as a set of
capabilies, may be seen as changing the condions of change
that underpin decision-making, expanding the idea of a human
agency beyond a determinisc framework. Part of what it means
to change people’s capacity to use the future is dicult to
grasp from within the dominant frameworks, both for decision-
making purposes and from the points of view of agencies. The
trouble is the underlying assumpon that the ulity of the future
for decision-making is fundamentally probabilisc and hence
thinking about the future is about calculang the likelihood of a
plan or preparatory measures being successful. Certainly there
is considerable scope for enhancing the way the future is used
from a closed systems perspecve. For instance, being able to
enlarge the menu of choices can be seen as a strong raonale for
bringing a variety of creave techniques to discover, inspire and
create opons within a probabilisc closed system for imagining
the future. However there is another approach to the raonale
for “good” decision-making that oers a more balanced take on
planning versus improvisaon or degrees of closure considered
necessary for “sound” decision-making.
I call the previous eorts to simultaneously operaonalise respect
for two disnct and oen contradictory paradigms “walking on
two legs”. One leg is the familiar use of the future for planning and
preparaon, the second is about non-planning or “not-doing”. The
laer is an alternave perceptual and strategic framework which does
not seek the raonale for current acon on the grounds of a causal
connecon to what might happen in the future. It instead departs
from the dominant belief that a beer future requires pre-empon
or planning; the ancipatory system it is built on enables a dierent
appreciaon of specicity, including a greater openness to novelty
(“unknown unknowns”).
The second leg also plays a crical role in facilitang spontaneity
and improvisaon and potenal sources of diversicaon, to
counterbalance the colonising and path-dependent approaches to
a “beer” tomorrow. Broadening our approach to ancipaon, the
creavity of the universe — marked by the occurrence of uncertaines
(“unknown unknowns”) that can disrupt plans, preparaons and
expectaons — turns uncertainty into an asset.
Futures Literacy and the Discipline of Ancipaon
The Discipline of Ancipaon (DoA) describes a set of competencies
that enables Future Literacy (FL). It rests on a clear set of premises
that maps out the nature of the future in abstract and applied
categories. This gives us the means to organise the theory and
pracce of using the imaginary future (i.e., conscious ancipaon). It
also oers a framework for the systemac and cumulave acquision
of knowledge that is characterisc of a specialised discipline.
The DoA consists of three main proposions:
(1) We live in an ancipatory universe that gives rise to many
dierent forms of ancipaon, including ancipatory systems
embedded in non-conscious enes as well as the more familiar
human, decision-oriented systems for preparaon, planning and
improvisaon. The DoA builds on the fundamental recognion
that the universe is ancipatory because of me and moon.
This fact allows ancipaon to be incorporated or expressed in
many forms, processes and systems. One obvious example is a
tree that loses its leaves, another is the human immune system
that ancipates a virus — both are non-conscious forms of
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ADAPTIVE GOVERNANCE FOR A CHANGING WORLD ROBUST AND EFFECTIVE PUBLIC POLICY CYCLES
ancipaon. There is also a whole range of dierent types of
ancipatory systems that humans use consciously.
(2) At a praccal level there are three broad categories of
conscious ancipaon — conngent (“planning”), opmisaon
(“preparaon”) and novelty (“invenon”). Understanding the
dierences and similaries between these three categories
is crucial for the design of eecve ancipatory systems
and processes. Simply put, eorts that aim to achieve the
outcomes required for closed systems thinking and as a form of
determinisc planning, need to be carefully disnguished from
eorts meant to sustain openness, inspire novelty and nourish
improvisaon. This does not mean that there cannot be creave
planning and invenve adapon within the connes of closed,
probabilisc planning, but that the methods and expectaons of
such ancipatory systems may miss or obscure dierences, such
as unnamed or sll unnameable novel phenomena. In parcular,
the novelty that constantly emerges from a vast range of natural,
serendipitous, unintended and intended experimentaon (at the
level of me-place specic context) is oen invisible or obscured
by probabilisc ancipatory systems and processes that are
rooted in the past.
(3) New tools (otherwise known as “collecve intelligence knowledge
laboratories”) for appreciang the specicity of the world around
us, including repeon and dierence, are emerging. In the same
way that rigorous stascal data collecon depends on careful
theory and pracce (i.e., the specicaon of models, variables
and data collecon methods), so too are the eorts to grasp
emergent reality as it happens, by using methods that can detect,
invent and make sense of novelty at all levels, including very
limited or local phenomena that characterises the richness of a
specic context.
Applying the capacies of FL to the understanding of the DoA makes
thinking about the future more ecient and eecve, as it provides
a clear set of guidelines for (1) specifying the nature of the task
being undertaken and (2) idenfying the right tools for the task. But
the broader impact of FL is its inherent power of using the future
to understand the present, the choices we see and the decisions we
make. The future can be used like a dye dropped onto a microscope
slide — it provides contrast, reveals system boundaries, intra- and
inter-relaonships, and elements that are new, in ascendance or in
decline. Without suggesng that systemic boundaries are xed, Table
1 represents the ways in which the future can help to idenfy dierent
systems and system boundaries as well as help to clarify the strategic
stance being adopted by decision-makers. For examples, are they
working on reform, conned to a closed system, inside-in endogenous
change? Are they trying to understand how internal or external
novelty and systemic change may alter the nature, percepons or
aconable opons of an exisng and bounded system? Or are they
contemplang orthogonal emergence, the paradigmacally disnct
and at mes novel systems, that might open up ideas of enrely new
strategic opons?
Table 1. Using the future to think about inter- and intra-systemic
change.
Change within the system Change outside the system
Inside-in Inside-out
Outside-in Outside-out
The diagnosc and strategic implicaons of FL are signicant. A beer
grasp of how to use the future enables decision-makers to choose
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ADAPTIVE GOVERNANCE FOR A CHANGING WORLD ROBUST AND EFFECTIVE PUBLIC POLICY CYCLES
methods that are jused on the basis of a theory of what the future is
and therefore the techniques to use to understand it. Understanding
the DoA makes it praccal to move away from a narrow and oen
erroneous use of the future as a target that can be predicted. Of
course, the future can sll be instrumentalised as the source of a goal
that structures percepon and acon, but with the DoA the limits and
dangers of “walking on one leg” become clear.
Today, for governments and policymakers, it is important to disnguish
eorts that explore and leverage novel, emergent complexity from
eorts that hope to colonise the world of tomorrow. Being able to
make these disncons and apply the appropriate tools to their
strategic and policy formaon processes calls for an enhanced capacity
to use the future — they must become FL by gaining an understanding
of the DoA. How leaders respond will tell a strategic story: are they
focused exclusively on inside-in change? Do they grasp novel outside-
out systemic changes and the interacons with exisng systems?
Do they consider extra systemic change as a threat, an opportunity
or just irrelevant? Can they lead by using the future dierently, for
example, by expanding their use of the future to encompass more
than the determinisc planning paradigms of the past?
There is no way of knowing how these choices will aect future
outcomes. However, it is sll the responsibility of those in power to
decide. How they decide to use the future is already an important
choice. In closing, here are a number of currently unresolved dilemmas
that could be recast by developing FL — a change in the condions
of change. How can greater freedom be reconciled with collecve
choice? Can greater diversity be embraced without fragmentaon
and chaos? Can greater creavity be fostered without increasing
burnout and stress? How does one inspire responsibility? Or manage
risks without hierarchy? Or achieve respect for complexity while
sll gaining a depth of understanding? Perhaps a more theorecally
informed and praccally rened way of using the future might oer
new ways of thinking about these issues.
NOTES
1. A few recent keynote speeches: “Towards a Futures Literate World: UNESCO
and the Discipline of Ancipaon,” Symposium, Science and Technology
Policy Instute (STEPI), Seoul, South Korea, 22 April 2014; “Advancing
Futures Literacy,” Conference: Foresight and the Arab World, Arab League
Educaon, Culture and Scienc Organisaon (ALECSO), Tunis, Tunisia, 22
September 2014; “Educaon versus Learning: Changing Concepons of
Agency by Using the Future Dierently,” Annual Conference on Excellence
and Innovaon in Educaon 2014: The Creavity — Innovaon Challenge,
The Internaonal Centre for Innovaon in Educaon, Paris, France, 9 July
2014; “Dawn of the Second Machine Age: Technological Revoluon and
its Eects on Human Capital,” 25th Anniversary Foresight Series, American
Chamber of Commerce Hungary, Budapest, Hungary, 30 June 2014;
“Ancipatory Leadership: Using the Future to Transform the Present,”
Annual Learning Symposium, Associaon of Professional Execuves of
the Public Service of Canada (APEX), Oawa, Canada, 3 June 2014; “Using
Futures Literacy Knowledge Laboratories to Detect and Make Sense of
Change,” All Africa Futures Forum: Transforming African Futures, Wits
School of Governance, University of Witswatersrand, Johannesburg, South
Africa, 28 May 2014; “Higher School of Economics,” Annual Conference
on Foresight and STI Policy: Cooperaon, Coordinaon, and Challenges in
Foresight, Naonal Research University, Moscow, Russia, 31 October 2013
(video: hp://www.2100.org/videos/2355/educaon-of-the-future/).
2. Ikka Tuomi, “Next Generaon Foresight in Ancipatory Organisaons,”
Background Study for the European Forum on Forward Looking Acvies,
European Commission and Oy Meaning Processing, 28 August 2013.
3. Ilya Prigogine, The End of Certainty (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1997).
4. Ralph D Stacey, Strategic Management and Organisaonal Dynamics: The
Challenge of Complexity (Harlow, UK: Financial Times/Prence Hall, 2000);
David Snowden and Cynthia F Kurtz, “The New Dynamics of Strategy:
Sense-making in a Complex and Complicated World,” IBM Systems Journal,
42, No. 3, 2003; Nassim N Taleb, An Fragile: Things that Gain from
Disorder (Random House, 2014); Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow
(Penguin, 2011).
5. Note these disncons are also relevant to non-conscious ancipaon, but
not at the same level of reality. Evoluonary processes generate ancipatory
systems that fall into these dierent categories, but not due to conscious
volion.
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ADAPTIVE GOVERNANCE FOR A CHANGING WORLD ROBUST AND EFFECTIVE PUBLIC POLICY CYCLES
