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v v Article e012461v
IntroductIon
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†23412
1UMR 5023 LEHNA, Laboratoire d’Ecologie des Hydrosystèmes Naturels et Anthropisés,
CNRS, Université Lyon 1, 69100 Villeurbanne, France
2CEFE UMR 5175, CNRS – Université de Montpellier – Université Paul-Valéry Montpellier – EPHE, Laboratoire
Biogéographie et Ecologie des Vertébrés, 1919 Route de Mende, 34293 Montpellier Cedex 5, France
3Oce National des Forêts, Agence de Verdun, 55100, Verdun, France
4Alcedo Faune Flore, Quartier Le Fez, 07110, Sanilhac, France
Citation:
Abstract.
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Bombina varie-
gata-
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Key words:Bombina variegata
Received
† E-mail:
Copyright:
v v Article e012462 v www.esajournals.org
CAYUELA ET AL.
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Bufo bufo
Triturus cristatus
T. cristatus
Ambysto-
ma tigrinum
Rana sevosaAmbystoma
opacum
Gyrinophilus porphy-
riticus
Bombina varie-
gata
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B variegata
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Methods
Study area and field sampling
of B variegata -
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v v Article e012463 v www.esajournals.org
CAYUELA ET AL.
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Multievent capture–recapture model
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Bombina
variegata
v v Article e012464 v www.esajournals.org
CAYUELA ET AL.
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αα
α
ββββ
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φ φ
φφ φφ
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⎛⎜⎜⎜⎜⎜⎜⎜⎜⎜⎜⎜⎜⎝
1−𝛼
JM
0𝛼
JM 0 0 0 0 0 000
01−𝛼JF 0𝛼JF
0 0 0 0 000
00𝛽JM 01−𝛽JM
0 0 0 000
0 00𝛽JF 01−𝛽JF
0 0 000
0 0 00 𝛽SM 01−𝛽SM
0 000
0 0 00 0 𝛽SF 01−𝛽SF
000
0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 000
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 000
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 010
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 001
⎞⎟⎟⎟⎟⎟⎟⎟⎟⎟⎟⎟⎟⎠
⎛⎜⎜⎜⎜⎜⎜⎜⎜⎜⎜⎜⎜⎝
10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
00𝜙JM 000 0 0 0 0 1−𝜙JM
00 0 𝜙JF 0000 0 0 1−𝜙JF
00 0 0 𝜙SM 000 0 01−𝜙SM
00 0 0 0 𝜙SF 00 0 01−𝜙SF
00 0 0 0 0 𝜙BM 0 0 01−𝜙BM
00 0 0 0 0 0 𝜙BF 0 01−𝜙BF
00 0 0 0 0 0 0 𝜙NBM 01−𝜙NBM
00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 𝜙NBF 1−𝜙NBF
00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
⎞⎟⎟⎟⎟⎟⎟⎟⎟⎟⎟⎟⎟⎠
(2)
(1)
v v Article e012465 v www.esajournals.org
CAYUELA ET AL.
γγ
γγ
sensu
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(4)
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Biological scenarios using the E- SURGE program
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α ϕ γ p(-
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t
t
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Simulation matrix model
⎛⎜⎜⎜⎜⎜⎜⎜⎜⎜⎜⎜⎜⎝
100000 0 0 0 0 0
010000 0 0 0 0 0
001000 0 0 0 0 0
000100 0 0 0 0 0
000010 0 0 0 0 0
000001 0 0 0 0 0
000000 𝛾BM 01−𝛾BM
00
000000 0 𝛾BF 01−𝛾BF 0
0000001−𝛾NBM 0𝛾NBM
00
000000 0 1−𝛾NBF 0𝛾NBF 0
000000 0 0 0 0 1
⎞⎟⎟⎟⎟⎟⎟⎟⎟⎟⎟⎟⎟⎠
⎛⎜⎜⎜⎜⎜⎜⎜⎜⎜⎜⎜⎜⎝
1 00 00
1 00 00
1−pJM pJM
000
1−pJF pJF
000
1−pSM 0pSM
00
1−pSF 0pSF
00
1−pBM 00pBM 0
1−pBF 000pBF
1 00 00
1 00 00
1 00 00
⎞⎟⎟⎟⎟⎟⎟⎟⎟⎟⎟⎟⎟⎠
(3)
v v Article e012466 v www.esajournals.org
CAYUELA ET AL.
(5)
1
2
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t
female at t
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k
tkt0k
result
(00F
∗
BP
S1
00
0
S2S3)
α
α
β
β
β
β
φ
φ
φ
φ
φ
φ
φ
φ
γ tt
γ tt
γ
γ
p
p
p
p
p
p
v v Article e012467 v www.esajournals.org
CAYUELA ET AL.
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α
φγ p
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Bombina variegata
rk-
r kDev
1 YEAR 24
2 YEAR 22
3 YEAR 21
4 YEAR
5 DRY YEAR 18
6 DRY YEAR 20
7 YEAR 17
8 YEAR
YEAR YEAR 21
10 YEAR YEAR
11 YEAR YEAR 18
12 YEAR YEAR 16
13 DRY YEAR YEAR 15
14 DRY YEAR YEAR 17
15 YEAR YEAR 14
16 YEAR YEAR 16
17 YEAR 21
18 YEAR
YEAR 16
20 YEAR 18
21 DRY YEAR 15
22 DRY YEAR 17
23 YEAR 14
24 YEAR 16
25 YEAR 17
26 YEAR 15
27 YEAR 14
28 YEAR 12
DRY YEAR 11
30 DRY YEAR 13
31 YEAR 10
32 YEAR 12
v v Article e012468 v www.esajournals.org
CAYUELA ET AL.
dIscussIon
B. variegata
Fecundity is impacted by drought events
B variegata
Bombina variegata
v v Article e01246 v www.esajournals.org
CAYUELA ET AL.
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Survival probability is impacted by age and drought
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B variegata
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B variegata -
Population growth rate is impacted by
drought frequency
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B variegata
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Conservation recommendations
for B. variegata -
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v v Article e0124610 v www.esajournals.org
CAYUELA ET AL.
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Bombina variegata
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B. variegata
AcknowledgMents
lIterAture cIted
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(Rana sylvatica
Bombina
variegata
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Bombina
variegata
v v Article e0124611 v www.esajournals.org
CAYUELA ET AL.
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in
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Ambystoma tigri-
num
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in
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Bombina Pelo-
phylaxRana
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Bombina variegata
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Bombina variegata -
v v Article e0124612 v www.esajournals.org
CAYUELA ET AL.
Bombina variegata et Bufo calamita
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Bombina variegata
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Bombi-
na variegata
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Rana sevosa
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