Article

Family and domestic situations seen from the cohort angle

Authors:
  • Institut national d'études démographiques/Australian National University/Charles Darwin University
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Abstract

On either side of the Atlantic the risk of one's spouse dying has diminished over the generations whilst marriage failures have multiplied. Although until very recently the former factor has presided over the latter thus making life as a couple more frequent at different stages of retirement, today we are witnessing a reversal of this tendency. Paradoxically such a progression of life as a couple has been accompanied by a rise in residential isolation. The rarity of intergenerational cohabitation and the dislike of life in an institution, at least until I a very advanced age are there hidden beneath the surface. Although these heavy tendencies are common to both Quebec and France, their intensity is variable. The article's aim is to highlight the similarities and differences in their evolution.

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Article
We propose a method for predicting the evolution of ambulatory health expenditure (i.e. non-hospital) under the effect of aging of the French population by 2025. The model includes two indicators of health status through which each agent of the database pass through microsimulation (thus creating an epidemiological dynamic at the individual level). Using an econometric model of consumption of healthcare services, we deduce the French health spending in 2025 by aggregating the representative aged population in 2025. The support chosen for the first application of the tool is the Health and Social Protection Survey (ESPS2000) of IRDES paired with the Public Insured Permanent Sample (EPAS). The topic is the impact of epidemiological changes on the amount of outpatient expenditures. These simulations were conducted for three epidemiological scenarios: a scenario of constant epidemiologic dynamic, a healthy aging scenario and a healthy aging + medical progress scenario (without taking into account the price effects).
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