Article

Describing and predicting of the vegetation development of Corsica due to expected climate change and its impact on forest fire risk evolution

Authors:
  • Climpact Data Science
  • Mines Paristech PSL Research University
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Abstract

Among the consequences pointed out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), it is assumed that xeric and thermophilic ecosystems, which are mostly involved in forest fires, could colonize areas currently less or not exposed to forest fire risk. The aim of our study is to assess the spatial distribution of xeric and thermophilic botanical taxa in Corsica for the end of the 21st Century, according to the climatic scenario named RCP 6 which is considered as one of the most probable reference scenario. The results of our study show a probable increase of forest fire risk due to the colonization of xeric and thermophilic ecosystems in more areas than we can observe today.

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... One of the consequences of climate change is an evolution of the vegetation. As Garbolino et al. (2016) show, at the end of the twenty-first century, in Corsica, the plants will generally shift in altitude over a distance of 260 m, which correspond to an altitudinal progression of more or less 26 m every ten years. The colonization of the xeric and thermophilic plants in other parts of the territory than those they currently inhabit, especially in higher altitudes is a consequence of the increase of temperature. ...
... Among the 360 communes of Corsica, actually 200 municipalities and 525,200 ha (ha) are strongly exposed to forest fires (at least 10 wild fires occurred in these areas within the last 11 years). For the end of the 21st century, because of the evolution of vegetation as a consequence of climate change, 107 additional municipalities could be exposed to forest fires (275,800 ha) (Garbolino et al., 2016). The actual population exposed to forest fires in Corsica is around 223,000 people. ...
... Map of the main land cover types in Corsica using CORINE Land Cover database(Garbolino et al., 2016). ...
Article
In a context of climate change that may increase the extreme events and so the forest fires, the question is to know whether the legal framework is relevant or it should keep on evolving to manage the forest fire prevention risk. Many reports concerning the climate change and also the forest fire risk in France pointed the necessary adaptation of the public policies and the lack of the legal prevention measures. So, the question is what the main legal measures are to be developed or to be implemented in the territories actually exposed to forest fire which could be more exposed to this risk and the territories which are not exposed for that moment but which could be exposed in the future.
... A model of vegetation dynamics due to the climate scenarios for 2050 [22,23] in order to assess the potential modifications of the vegetation structures that may affect the availability of biomass for its energetic use; A model of the Net Primary Productivity NPP proposed by Leith [24] in order to assess its variation towards 2050 and for the identification of the potential risk on biomass availability; A model of urban dynamics, based on the use of cellular automata [25][26][27][28], for the estimation of the urban spread towards 2050 in order to assess and identify the locations of the potential increase of the population and its energy demand. ...
... The effect of a factor on a plant is gradual, but the intermittence of the plant in the range of the climatic variable is possible; A plant is a better indicator of a factor if its occurrence is concentrated in one part of the range of the climatic variable, e.g., if two plants are distributed in the same part of the range of a climatic variable, the most indicative plant is the one showing the highest frequencies at one or more levels of the range, even though the two More recently, this calibration was applied on 4.000 taxa in France [22,23] with the use of climatic data provided by Meteo France and distributed on the whole French territory at a spatial resolution of one kilometer square. ...
... The methodology explained by [23] is based on the selection on the territory of the plots where the values of all variables are included in the climatic range of the plant. In our study in the Alpes-Maritimes (French Riviera), 116 woody species (appendix 1) where used in order to identify the potential changes of forests and scrublands structures in the future by taking into account a high abundance level of each species. ...
Conference Paper
This study aims to assess the potentiality of biomass production and availability for energy systems based on woody biomass, with the use of a geoprospective approach. The methodology takes into account the impact of the global warming on the Net Primary Productivity and the vegetation structure towards 2050, and the assessment of urban dynamic in order to identify the future areas of energy demand. Our results show that Mediterranean forest may be more vulnerable due to the increase of temperatures that may affect the mortality of the trees and shrubs, and the structure of the ecosystems due to the colonization of more xerophilous species in the inner valleys and hills. In some parts of the Alpes-Maritimes (French Riviera), these changes may affect the biomass production and, in consequence, the availability of the resource for the supply chain. The current development of the urbanization in the valleys and in the central part of the territory, which will be emphasized in the future, raises the question of the sustainability of energy systems based on woody biomass in such areas due to the potential risk of the increase of trees mortality, changes in vegetation structure with less trees and NPP decrease. At the opposite, in the mountain areas, the NPP will increase and the dynamic of trees would be suitable to the development of forests. But these areas are mainly located in protected areas where few activities are tolerated. These results underline the difficulty and complexity of a sustainable development of wood energy supply chain in Mediterranean territories, and the need of a strategy to face these potential problems.
... Reference [14] developed a probabilistic calibration to quantify the relations of 1874 plants (herbs, shrubs, and trees species) with 72 climatic variables over a period of 50 years in France. The current probabilistic calibration encompasses more than 4000 plants and climatic variables (monthly averages for 30 years of day and night average and extreme temperatures, amount of freezing days, amount of rainy days, and amount of the precipitations) [15,16]. The results of this probabilistic calibration provide a set of 4000 plants able to indicate climatic variables. ...
... One of the most innovative points of this research is to take into account the behavior of a species when it is abundant: This parameter of abundance of a species allows estimating the spatial distribution of dense coverage of the trees at the scale of France. This methodology has been evaluated in a previous publication at a local scale [9,15,16] and needs to be evaluated at a national scale. The validation step compares the potential spatial distribution of the suitable areas for the tree species, according to the current climate, with the map of distribution of each species provided by the IFN (National Forest Inventory). ...
... The problem of wood resources must also be related to the increase of the vulnerability of forests to wildfires due to the impact of climate warming [15,16,39]. This hazard may increase in frequency and spatial representation in the future. ...
Article
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The development of collective and industrial energy systems, based on wood biomass, knows a significant increase since the end of the 90’s in France, with more than 6000 power plants and heating plants developed currently. Because these systems are built for a minimal duration of 30 years, it is relevant to assess the availability of wood resources according to the potential impacts of global warming on five tree species mainly used in such a supply chain. The assessment of the potential spatial distribution of the suitable areas of these trees in 2050, by using the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) RCP6.0 scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway), shows an average decrease of 22% of the plots in comparison with the current situation. The results also point out that mountain areas would maintain a high probability of the development of four tree species. The assessment of the Net Primary Productivity (NPP) underlines a potential decrease for 93% of the plots in 2050, and an increase of this parameter in mountain areas. According to these assumptions, the proposed ecosystem based methodology can be considered as a prospective approach to support stakeholders’ decisions for the development of the wood energy supply chain.
... The proposed approach is based on a pedoclimatic model (Garbolino, 2014). We also complete our approach by the integration of a model of Net Primary Productivity (NPP) proposed by Lieth in 1972, in order to assess the potential trends of this essential parameter for forest management towards 2050. ...
... Its variation towards 2050 allow identifying the potential risk on biomass availability for the different wood species (Garbolino and Daniel, 2019). Garbolino (2014) and Garbolino et al. (2016 and proposed a probabilistic method to quantify the climatic behavior of more than 4,000 woody and herbaceous plants with climatic variables in France. ...
... Its variation towards 2050 allow identifying the potential risk on biomass availability for the different wood species (Garbolino and Daniel, 2019). Garbolino (2014) and Garbolino et al. (2016 and proposed a probabilistic method to quantify the climatic behavior of more than 4,000 woody and herbaceous plants with climatic variables in France. ...
Conference Paper
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Climate change could affect the specific structure of forest ecosystems and their productivity in Europe during the XXIst century. We propose a study of the potential impacts of global warming for two bioclimatic Regions in France. The aim of this study is to assess the possible risks and opportunities for the wood energy supply chain according to the expected evolution of wood resources. We propose a methodology to explore the potential consequences of climate change on the spatial distribution of suitable areas of 3 tree species usually involved into the wood supply chain for different uses, and 12 bush species of scrublands towards 2050. The results shows that species adapted to relatively cool and humid climates would be stressed in these two French Regions. The Maritime pine and the group of scrubland species could benefit to a certain extent from the effects of climate change by 2050, especially at the southern and mid-latitudes (Occitanie). This underlines the need to develop adequate methods to manage forest ecosystems and plantations and to develop value chain in order to take advantage of the potential development of scrublands and Maritime pine towards 2050.
... This movement, of city limits, of people to and from more isolated settlements, and of vegetation, results in a clash between wildland and urban areas, the socalled wildland-urban interface (WUI) [11]. Proximity between human habitats and wildland causes abnormalities in natural land cover, subsequent changes in weather patterns, posing the risk of fires to WUI residents [2], and depreciation of landscape resulting after fire affected environmental degradation [12]. In addition, it is predicted that climate change will have a significant effect on lengthening the fire season across Europe and the number of fire danger days in the Mediterranean region is going to increase [1,2]. ...
... Additionally, the decline in agriculture as an economic source, and accompanying land abandonment, has meant vegetation growth has been less controlled in Corsica [85]. It is predicted that due to changes of land use and climate change, ecosystems will change and colonise the areas that are not yet exposed to wildfires, increasing ecosystem vulnerability [12]. However, it is not only vegetation that is growing. ...
Article
The number of wildfires occurring globally is exacerbated by urbanisation and changes in weather patterns. In response, researchers have conducted studies of wildfires and human behaviour in regions such as Australia and the USA. Regions in Europe have received less attention, despite facing the same issues. Even more overlooked are one particular type of territory: islands. With their climates, islands across the Mediterranean remain attractive second home and tourist destinations, resulting in urban development. Yet due to certain features (e.g. cultural, socio-political, geographical), the ways in which their people deal with wildfires may differ somewhat from that in some mainland territories. This paper explores human behaviour in wildfire emergencies in the context of island vulnerability and resilience in Europe, with the Mediterranean island of Corsica as a case study. Qualitative analysis of semi-structured interviews (n = 8) with Corsican professionals involved in wildfire management and quantitative analysis of around 100 surveys from civilians was conducted. This analysis revealed that Corsica’s population approach to wildfire safety is shaped by available information as well as a strong risk culture, which stands in contrast with new/temporary residents moving into the island each summer season. The results drawn from the analysed sample suggest potential social vulnerability in wildfires when a decision to evacuate the population is taken by emergency managers as the most effective emergency response. Population behaviour were not influenced by property attachment, perceived risk, hazard knowledge, community closeness and locus of control, suggesting that island WUI resident characteristics may not be generalised from human behaviour in wildfires studies carried out in the USA or Australia.
... Other approaches are based on probabilistic methods that take into account the intermittent nature of the data better [14,15]. We propose a model integrated into a set of other models and tools named CDS toolbox SDM (CDS for Climate Data Science) in order to assess the potential suitable areas for species, community of species, or landscape units according to current and future scenarios of climate change. ...
... We propose a model integrated into a set of other models and tools named CDS toolbox SDM (CDS for Climate Data Science) in order to assess the potential suitable areas for species, community of species, or landscape units according to current and future scenarios of climate change. We started to develop this model in 2009, in the frame of an exploratory project called "Climpact" in order to assess the potential consequences of climate change scenarios on the risk of wildland fires in Corsica [14,15]. This first prototype, computerized in C++, was initially based on three climatic variables (minimum temperature-Tmin; maximum temperatures-Tmax, precipitations-P). ...
Article
Full-text available
Climate Data Science (CDS) Toolbox Species Distribution Model (SDM) aims identifying the suitable areas for species, community of species and landscape units. This model is based on the use of 23 variables available over the Internet, for which any assumptions are formulated about their relationships with the spatial distribution of species. The application of CDS Toolbox SDM on the assessment of the potential impact of two scenarios of climate change (Representative Concentration Pathways RCP4.5 and RCP6.0) on the suitability of grapevine crops in France shows a general decrease of the most suitable areas for grapevine crops between 41% and 83% towards 2070 according to the current location of the vineyard parcels. The results underline a potential shift of the suitable areas in northern part of the French territory. They also show a potential shift of the most suitable areas in altitude (60 m in average) for RCP6.0 scenario. Finally, the model shows that RCP4.5 scenario should be more drastic than RCP6.0 scenario by 2050 and 2070. In effect, the model underlines a significant potential decrease of cultivated crops in the areas of high probably of suitable areas, according to the baseline scenario. This decrease would be of 630,000 ha for 2070 RCP4.5 scenario and 330,000 ha for 2070 RCP6.0 scenario.
... The 'hotspots' can be seen in Fig. 3-2. It is estimated that, out of 360 Corsican communes, 200 municipalities are particularly exposed to wildfires (Garbolino et al., 2015). ...
... This means vulnerability ( Fig. 3-3). However, it is predicted that due to changes in land use and climate change, ecosystems will also change in the areas that are not yet exposed to wildfires, bringing even higher vulnerability as a result (Garbolino et al., 2015). ...
Thesis
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The number of wildfires occurring globally is increasing, exacerbated by urbanisation and changes in weather patterns. People’s safety is threatened by this growing problem. Consequently, researchers have conducted studies of wildfires and human behaviour in response to wildfire evacuations in regions such as Australia and the USA. Regions in Europe have received less attention, despite facing the same issues. In addition, due to the different methods and focuses applied in existing disaster research, it proves challenging to compare and utilise results of multiple studies when developing tools for community safety (e.g. evacuation simulation models, for use in planning and training). This research addresses these gaps by: • devising a framework for data collection and organisation (CIBER-t) • applying mixed methods and a research focus shaped by this framework • collecting data from various sources (media, professionals involved in wildfire management, residents) in wildland-urban interface/intermix (WUI) areas in the European region of southern France • identifying, quantifying and contextualising aspects of individual and group behavioural responses to wildfires in these WUI areas • comparing the French data with new data from Australia, thereby building an understanding of behaviours that may be generalised or regionally-specific • using the combined data to create regression models that predict behavioural outcomes such as the decision to evacuate and evacuation delay times • considering the potential for regression and evacuation models to assist researchers, practitioners, policy-makers, and the public in improving community safety
... The global warming is causing an increase in the frequency, duration, and severity of drought in some regions [32]. A Drought climate will often result in increased wildfires, and thus vegetation will be lost [33][34][35]. Since plants remove atmospheric carbon dioxide, the terrestrial carbon sink will decrease due to increased wildfire [18,36]. It is estimated that the global terrestrial carbon sink absorbs a range of 2.0 to 3.4 Pg. carbon per year [36]. ...
... The global warming is also associated with increased flooding in warmer maritime regions because the higher temperatures is increasing the evaporation from water surfaces [44,45,35]. The hazards that follows are likely to increase in the future with the predicted climate change [46]. ...
... The problem of extinction of the forest fires has been perhaps the most urgent topic for many years [1][2][3][4]. Forest fires destroy annually millions of hectares of forests, thus the entire ecosystems have disappeared. ...
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Paper presents the experimental results about fire extinction in the model fire sites of forest combustible materials. We use the high-speed video recording tools during the experiments, as well as the system of multiphase media diagnostics based on panoramic optical flow visualization techniques. The presented experiments prove that it is possible to extinguish the forest combustible material (FCM) by small amount of water. The study considers several ways to stop FCM thermal decomposition: by individual large water droplets (1-3 mm), by an aerosol flow (the droplet size is from 0.05 mm to 0.12 mm), or through water film formation on the FCM surface. Typical durations of the FCM thermal decomposition and time of fire suppression are determined for various conditions of interaction with water. The experimental results identify which amount of water is enough to extinguish the FCM by different ways of water transfer to the reacting surface layer. Furthermore, it is estimated how the component composition and the properties of the tested FCM mixtures effects onto the characteristics of the investigated processes. The residual fraction of the FCM was evaluated by comparison of initial and final (after extinguishing) mass of the sample.
... Fire regimes of grasslands and forests have been analysed at multiple temporal and spatial scales (Abatzoglou and Williams 2016;Francos et al. 2016;Garbolino et al. 2016;Gaudreau et al. 2016;Harris et al. 2016;Kukavskaya et al. 2016;Liu and Wimberly 2016;Tian et al. 2016;Liu et al. 2017). Previous research suggests that extreme weather is an important determinant of fire severity and extent. ...
Article
We examined the relationship between climate variables and grassland area burned in Xilingol, China, from 2001 to 2014 using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, and describe the application of this econometric method to studies of climate influences on wildland fire. We show that there is a stationary linear combination of non-stationary climate time series (cointegration) that can be used to reliably estimate the influence of different climate signals on area burned. Our model shows a strong relationship between maximum temperature and grassland area burned. Mean monthly wind speed and monthly hours of sunlight were also strongly associated with area burned, whereas minimum temperature and precipitation were not. Some climate variables like wind speed had significant immediate effects on area burned, the strength of which varied over the 2001–14 observation period (in econometrics terms, a ‘short-run’ effect). The relationship between temperature and area burned exhibited a steady-state or ‘long-run’ relationship. We analysed three different periods (2001–05, 2006–10 and 2011–14) to illustrate how the effects of climate on area burned vary over time. These results should be helpful in estimating the potential impact of changing climate on the eastern Eurasian Steppe.
... Weather factors (rainfall and temperature) had a significant influence on urban fire occurrence in Jiangsu Province of China (Yang et al. 2015). In Corsica, forest fire risk would increase due to climate change by 2100 (Garbolino et al. 2016). By analyzing the severe Laerdalsøyri fire, it was found that fuel moisture content may be used as a parameter for evaluating cold climate fire risk (Log 2016). ...
Article
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Frequent fires can affect ecosystems and public safety. The occurrence of fires has varied with hot and cold months in China. To analyze how temperature influences fire frequency, a fire dataset including 20,622 fires and a historical weather dataset for Changsha in China were gathered and processed. Through data mining, it was found that the mean daily fire frequency tended to be the lowest in the temperature range of (20 °C, 25 °C] and should be related to the low utilization rate of electricity. Through polynomial fitting, it was found that the prediction performance using the daily minimum temperature was generally better than that using the daily maximum temperature, and a quadruplicate polynomial model based on the mean daily minimum temperature of 3 days (the day and the prior 2 days) had the best performance. Then, a temperature-based fire frequency prediction model was established using quadruplicate polynomial regression. Moreover, the results are contrary to the content stipulated in China’s national standard of urban fire-danger weather ratings GB/T 20487-2006. The findings of this study can be applied as technical guidance for fire risk prediction and the revision of GB/T 20487-2006.
... A forest fire is one of the most damaging events that can affect the forest ecosystem. It is a major threat (whether natural or man-made) to human life, the forest environment and biodiversity, and the wildlife living in a forest (Buyyani and Padmaja, 2014;Garbolino et al., 2017;McKenzie et al., 2014;Naderpour et al., 2019). Forest fires are also responsible for soil degradation, carbon dioxide capture (Bo et al., 2020), desertification, and deforestation (Moayedi et al., 2020). ...
Article
This study proposed an integrated approach to generating a forest fire risk map. It used geographic information system–based multiple criteria decision analysis (GIS-MCDA) with the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and a statistical index (SI). The research was carried out at the Mersin Regional Directorate of Forestry (RDF) in the eastern Mediterranean region of Turkey. Four main criteria, the forest structure, topography, environment, and climate, and 16 subcriteria were used to create the fire risk map. The weight of each criterion was determined using the AHP. The AHP model revealed that environmental factors are the most influential in igniting forest fires, followed by the forest structure. In order to evaluate the results, 990 historical forest fire ignition points were obtained from the Mersin RDF. According to the forest fire risk map, more than 85% of the ignition points were in areas classified as having an extreme or high risk for forest fires. The findings show that the study area is highly prone to forest fires. The relative operating characteristic curve and area under the curve were used to validate the accuracy of the fire risk map. This validation revealed a very high accuracy of 0.775 for the AHP model, indicating a high accuracy in forest fire risk mapping, and the map produced was consistent and reliable. The AHP model and its results will assist decision makers in taking necessary precautions to prevent forest fires and to minimize fire damage, particularly in the eastern Mediterranean region.
... This phenomenon has become an important socioeconomic and environmental problem that requires great attention, especially in terms of prevention (FAO 2011). Climate change plays an important role in the fire hazard, and a number of studies attempted to analyse this correlation (Garbolino et al. 2019, Syphard et al. 2019. In particular, climate change has a relevant role in the intensity of events, as drying and warming periods have proven to be important determinants for fire hazard. ...
Article
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The Tuscan Region (Central Italy) spends about 12 million euros every year in the prevention and suppression of forest fires. In this context, this study aims to analyse the economic and environmental benefits derived from fire suppression activities. Starting from a case study of a real fire event in Tuscany, we simulated three hypothetical scenarios (with different fire durations) without fire extinction activities planned by using the open source software FAR-SITE. Benefits derived from fire extinction activities can be quantified as the avoided damage, which has been calculated through the estimation of the total economic value of forests not destroyed by fire thanks to the extinction action. The avoided damage is represented by the difference between values of forest areas burned by the real fire event and those burned by simulated fire. By providing an economic estimation of avoided damages, our results confirm that forest fire services and forest management have a high impact on both the economy and the environment.
... Through investigating the changes in fire weather from 1959 to 2015, ongoing climate changes led to an increase of fire weather danger in the French Alps (Dupire et al., 2017). Garbolino et al. (2016) thought forest fire risk would increase within 2100 in Corsica because of climate change. Global warming reduces air humidity, which makes California more prone to forest fires. ...
Article
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Previous studies mainly focused on the influences of climate change on wildfires. However, other types of fires are also weather-related (especially temperature-related). The present study is aimed to analyze the influences of climate warming on fire risk. By data joining and processing, a dataset was born which includes 20,622 fire incidents and the related weather data from 2011 to 2017 in Changsha, China. Predictive models of fire frequency were established based on different regression methods of machine learning (random forest, support vector machine and polynomial). Among them, random forest regression models had the best fitting performance, and were selected to predict the fire frequency under climate warming scenarios. Under the current warming rate in Changsha, the annual fire frequency in 2067 (50 years after 2017) will increase by 0.69% to 0.89%. By rebuilding predictive models for other cities based on the proposed methods in this study, the influences of climate warming on their fire frequencies can also be analyzed.
... These studies projected and also observed (i) a general warming trend, whereby the monitored temperature change is up to 20% above the global average (Lionello and Scarascia, 2018), (ii) an increase in the frequency, duration and intensity of extreme weather events (IPCC, 2014), heat waves (Zittis et al., 2016), droughts (Vicente-Serrano et al., 2014), and, as a result, (iii) decreasing water resources such as reduced river discharge caused by an increase of terrestrial evapotranspiration. Particularly, the latter is assumed to increase the forest fire risk due to the extension of xeric and thermophilic ecosystems (Garbolino et al., 2015). Beyond changes in vegetation composition, another consequence of climate change will be the reduction of vegetation productivity (Gritti et al., 2006). ...
Article
The French Mediterranean island of Corsica is already today confronted with a clear tendency towards water shortage, leading not only to socio-economical, but also to ecological problems. A potential, but not very widespread source of water is the presence of near-ground clouds, mostly fog. In this study, we investigate fog-low stratus (FLS) frequencies in Corsica, derived from a data set of Meteosat Second Generation SEVIRI, whereby a distinction between fog and low stratus is hardly feasible using remote sensing data. The FLS frequency was studied with respect to its interaction with distinct locally-generated wind and its dependence on the planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) obtained by ERA5 reanalysis (the fifth generation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF). Results show that radiation FLS is formed in coastal areas at sunrise, with low PBLH. On the other hand, in the interior of the island at sunset, a maximum of advection FLS is formed, fostered by locally-generated and related transport of moisture. On the east side of the island, FLS frequency is lower throughout the year due to frequent lee situations. This situation is reinforced by reduced synoptic moisture transport by westerly winds, so that westerly exposed slopes benefit from moisture input by FLS formation.
Chapter
In our research, we develop a simulation scenario of landscape transformation with a CA model that incorporates the transition rules that have been interpreted from the spatial analysis of the study area. In this model, we only focus our study by the use of landscape classes and we do not use socioeconomic parameters like the demography or housing marked: we suppose that it is implicitly integrated into some specific land use classes like urbanization or agriculture. One of the main ideas of our methodology is to demonstrate that the contribution of landscape analysis allows identifying the main patterns to simulate the landscape dynamics, without ancillary data.
Chapter
Uncertainties remain concerning the potential development of wood energy supply chain in the South of France. The different stakeholders involved to the wood energy supply chain need to be supported on their decision process in order to ensure, as far as possible, the sustainability of this sector that is promoted by local, national, and European administrations. In order to answer to a part of this problematic, we propose to assess the potential impact of climate change on the vegetation dynamics of 25 tree species toward 2050, by using the CDS toolbox model developed with ASES and Climpact Data Science (CDS) companies. These species stem from four main forest types mainly observed in the Alpes-Maritimes and used for the current and future bioenergy systems. This point is essential to ensure the sustainability of combustion systems that are built for a minimum life service of 25�30 years. In this frame, we also propose to assess the urban spread for 2050, in order to identify the most suitable areas to extract biomass for energy demand according to the distance of current and future housing areas.
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Scroll through the document, or • Click here for the linked table of contents, or • Click here for a linked index of the 80 tree species by common name, or • Click here for linked index of the 80 tree species by scientific name NOTE: When you click on a tree species link from an index, it will open a separate 2-page PDF file that can be downloaded.
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This study assessed the turnover in the flora due to climate change in French Mediterranean forests. This turnover was first simulated with a bioclimatic model and then controlled in the field with a flora census in 2008, in permanent plots previously surveyed in 1996-1998. The simulation quantified the potential flora turnover for various climate change scenarios. The simulated turnover in the last 30, 20 and 10 years was respectively 11%, 14% and 25%. A rapid turnover was observed in the permanent plots between the two censuses, corresponding to 14% of the initial plant composition, the last decade being exceptionally hot and dry in the study area. Despite resilience on the landscape scale and various resistance strategies, plant composition adaptation to the ongoing climate change seems to take only 20 years on a local scale. Management issues are discussed, particularly biodiversity conservation in current reserve networks, which may be inadequate to ensure long-term species persistence with the rapid shift in plant composition. Most of the areas with the highest plant species richness of the study area potentially disappear when their niche envelopes are mapped using the bioclimatic model with the climate forecasted for year 2050.
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Présentation d'une méthode de modélisation de l'aléa d'éclosion. Résumé provenant de la conférence de Figueira da Foz, Portugal.
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Assessing firerisk in wildland urban interfaces, where wildland and urbanization are in contact, is a need for preventing wildfire and mapping fire risk levels. The article presents a method allowing to characterize wildland urban interface types and to map them from SPOT 5 satellital imagery. The method uses remote sensing to product a good and up to date soil occupation map; it also uses ecological indices (diversity, aggregation) and GIS (density calculation of built areas, data combination…). The typology so built of interfaces can be particularly useful for the fire fighters services to estimate fires ignition risks and the vulner-ability of every type and to pull the operational consequences, but also for the services of pre-vention to draw up prevention plans taking into account in a more precise way the specific problem of the wildland urban interfaces.
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Each year, forest fires destroy about 500,000 ha of vegetation in Europe, predominantly in the Mediterranean region. Many large fires are linked to the land transformations that have taken place in the Mediterranean region in recent decades that have increased the risk of forest fires. On the one hand, agricultural fallows and orchards are slowly being colonized by vegetation, and on the other hand, the forest is not sufficiently used, both of which result in increased accumulation of fuel. In addition, urbanization combined with forest extension results in new spatial configurations called “wildland–urban interfaces” (WUI). WUI are commonly defined as “areas where urban areas meet and interact with rural lands, wildland vegetation and forests”. Spatial analyses were performed using a WUI typology based on two intertwined elements, the spatial organization of homes and the structure of fuel vegetation. The organization of the land cover in terms of representativeness, complexity or road density was evaluated for each type of WUI. Results showed that there were significant differences between the types of WUI in the study area. Three indicators (i) “fire ignition density”, derived from the distribution of fire ignition points, (ii) “wildfire density”, derived from the distribution of wildfire area and (iii) “burned area ratio”, derived from the proportion of the burned area to the total study area were then compared with each type of WUI. Assuming that the three indicators correspond to important aspects of fire risk, we showed that, at least in the south of France, WUI are at high risk of wildfire, and that of the different types of wildland–urban interfaces, isolated and scattered WUI were the most at risk. Their main land cover characteristics, i.e. low housing and road densities but a high density of country roads, and the availability of burnable vegetation such as forested stands and shrubland (garrigue) explain the high fire risk. Improving our knowledge of relationships between WUI environments and fire risk should increase the efficiency of wildfire prevention: to this end, suitable prevention actions and communication campaigns targeting the types of WUI at the highest risk are recommended.Research highlights▶ WUI map represents a new approach for understanding the territory faced to wildfire risk ▶ Wildland–urban interfaces (WUI) are particularly concerned with a high wildfire risk ▶ Isolated and scattered wildland–urban interfaces were the most affected by high fire risk ▶ Low housing and road densities could explain suitable conditions for high fire risk.
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Rapid anthropogenic climate change is already affecting species distributions and ecosystem functioning worldwide. We applied niche-based models to analyse the impact of climate change on tree species and functional diversity in Europe. Present-day climate was used to predict the distributions of 122 tree species from different functional types (FT). We then explored projections of future distributions under one climate scenario for 2080, considering two alternative dispersal assumptions: no dispersal and unlimited dispersal. The species-rich broadleaved deciduous group appeared to play a key role in the future of different European regions. Temperate areas were projected to lose both species richness and functional diversity due to the loss of broadleaved deciduous trees. These were projected to migrate to boreal forests, thereby increasing their species richness and functional diversity. Atlantic areas provided an intermediate case, with a predicted reduction in the numbers of species and occasional predicted gains in functional diversity. This resulted from a loss in species within the broadleaved deciduous FT, but overall maintenance of the group. Our results illustrate the fact that both species-specific predictions and functional patterns should be examined separately in order to assess the impacts of climate change on biodiversity and gain insights into future ecosystem functioning.
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Fire is a dominant ecological factor in Mediterranean ecosystems, and changes in the fire regime can have important consequences for the stability of our landscapes. In this framework I asked firstly, what is the trend in fire number and area burned in the eastern Iberian Peninsula, and then, to what extent is the inter-annual variability of fires determined by climatic factors. To answer these questions I analysed the meteorological data (temperature and precipitation) from 350 stations covering the eastern Iberian Peninsula (1950–2000), and the fire records for the same area (historical data, 1874–1968, and data from recent decades, 1968–2000). The results suggested a slight tendency towards decreasing summer rainfall and a clear pattern of increasing annual and summer temperatures (on average, annual temperatures increased 0.35 C per decade from 1950 to 2000). The analysis of fire records suggested a clear increase in the annual number of fires and area burned during the last century; however, in the last three decades the number of fires also increased but the area burned did not show a clear trend. For this period the inter-annual variability in area burned was significantly related to the summer rainfall, that is, in wet summers the area burned was lower that in dry summers. Furthermore, summer rainfall was significantly cross-correlated with summer area burned for a time-lag of 2 years, suggesting that high rainfall may increase fuel loads that burn 2 years later.
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Recurrent fires are more frequent in the Mediterranean basin due to global climate change. The effects of fire recurrence (up to more than three recurrent fires with an interval since the last fire of more or less than fifteen years) on the structure of fuel beds were studied at stand level in southeastern France. Three types of vegetation that are among the most common in the study area (pure pine stands, oak-pine mixed stands and shrublands) were studied to determine the role of fire recurrence on biodiversity. Fuel bed description was carried out on aboveground vegetation at understorey and overstorey levels, and on litter in 39 homogeneous study sites. The structure of the understorey was categorized following a gradient of fragmentation including: (i) isolated shrubs, (ii) vegetation patches made up of a single species and (iii) homogeneous vegetation layers including different species of the same height. The decrease of time interval since the last fire caused an opening of the canopy, except for the lowest vegetation stratum (grasses and low shrubs) that did not vary significantly. There was no significant change in horizontal connectivity between fuel beds (% of layer cover) as a function of the fire regime or the type of vegetation. Conversely, the vertical connectivity (% of tree cover, height of the trees and of the layer) was affected by the fire regime, especially in pure pine stands. Fire regime also influenced the litter layer and litter depth decreased with an increase in the opening of the stand that could be due to fire. These results show that fire risk is greater in the oldest stands (long interval since the last fire).
Article
The influence of climate on plants geography is studied through a probabilistic calibration between a botanical database, containing 12 000 plots, and a meteorological database composed of 574 climatic stations. The calibration measures the climatical optimum (position) and the indicator power (concentration) of 1874 plants for six climatic variables. The validation of these relations is based upon the comparison of the estimation of climate by plants and the values measured by climatic stations near the plots. This validation underlines that plants are accurate (accuracy=88.5%) and stable (stability=96.5%) bio-indicators of climate variables.
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Les modèles de prévision météorologique en région méditerranéenne
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La protection contre les incendies de forêt après les feux de l'été
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Perriez, F., Bartet, J.-H., Barthelemy, F., Foin, P., 2003. La protection contre les incendies de forêt après les feux de l'été 2003. La documentation française.
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Préparer les forêts françaises au changement climatique. La documentation française
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