The population decline of Puerto Rico: An application of prospective trends in Cohort-Component Projections.

Full text

Instituto de Estadísticas de Puerto Rico
Estado Libre Asociado de Puerto Rico
SERIE DE DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO
Working Paper Series
Vol. 2015-1 / Octubre 2015
THE POPULATION DECLINE OF PUERTO RICO: AN APPLICATION
OF PROSPECTIVE TRENDS IN COHORT-COMPONENT
PROJECTIONS
Alexis R. Santos Lozada
Alberto L. Velázquez Estrada
NOTA:Lasexpresionesvertidasenestemanuscrito,sonexclusivamentelasdesusautores,yno
representannecesariamentelasposturasuopinionesdelosintegrantesdelInstitutodeEstadísticasde
PuertoRiconidesuJuntadeDirectores.

Santos&Velázquez Vol.2015‐1
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THEPOPULATIONDECLINEOFPUERTORICO:ANAPPLICATIONOFPROSPECTIVE
TRENDSINCOHORT‐COMPONENTPROJECTIONS
AlexisR.SantosLozada,Ph.D.12
AlbertoL.VelázquezEstrada,M.S.34
Abstract
Thispaperexaminestheimpactofprospectivedemographictrendsinthepopulation
structureofPuertoRico.PuertoRicohasexperiencedthefirstpopulationdeclineinrecorded
history,whichbringsforththequestionofthefutureofthepopulationoftheislandandwhat
arethepolicyimplicationsofthetransformationsofthepopulation.ACohort‐Component
Projectionswasused,incorporatingratesofchangesforfertilityandmortalitybasedin
historicalpatterns.ThenetmigrationrateswerecalculatedusingtheResidualMethodorVital
StatisticsMethod,andthreedifferentscenarioswereexplored:(1)FullMigration,(2)Half
Migrationand(3)ZeroMigration.Ourresultspointtoacontinuingdecreaseinthepopulation
ofPuertoRico,evenwhenconsideringaZeroMigrationscenario.Belowreplacementfertility
willstillbeakeyelementofthisdecline,andtheprospectivetrendsdonotpointthedeclining
levelsoffertilitystoppinginthecomingdecades.Mortalityhasaconsistentandstable
structure,evenwhenconsideringtheratesofchangeforthewholepopulation.Becauseofthis
wekepttheSurvivalRatesfromtheoriginalLifeTablesfor2010.Themethodsemployedinour
analysispointtoasystemicagingofthepopulationofPuertoRico,thepopulationpyramid
gearingtowardsastateofcontractionandtoan“invertedpyramid”by2030.Themedianage
willcontinueincreasingandsowillthepercentageofpersonsintheagedagegroups.
Additionally,weseeanincrementindependentpopulationhighlyfueledbythecontractionof
theworking‐agegroupandtheincrementintheagedpopulationofPuertoRico.Fromapolicy
perspective,thegovernmentofPuertoRicowillhavetodealwiththispopulationdeclineand
aginginatimelymannershouldtheywanttoavoidthecatastrophicconsequencesofnot
addressingthesituationinatimelymanner.
Keywords:populationdecline,PuertoRico,prospectivetrend,cohortcomponents,
projections
1.DepartmentofDemographyCollegeofPublicPolicy,UniversityofTexasatSanAntonio,2.Demographyand
BiostatisticsPre‐DoctoralResearcherORISEFellow,DepartmentofEpidemiologyandBiostatisticsUnitedStates
Army–InstituteofSurgicalResearch,3.StatisticsProjectsManagerDemographySection,PuertoRicoInstituteof
Statistics,4.RepresentativeforPuertoRico,FederalState‐CooperativeforPopulationEstimates(FSCPE).Itshould
bementionedthattheopinions,conjecturesandconclusionsreachedinthispaperaretheauthor’ssole
responsibilityandinnowaytheycouldbeattributedorassociatedtothePRIS.Anyremainingerrorsareofthe
author’ssoleresponsibility.

Santos&Velázquez Vol.2015‐1
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Introduction
On2010,PuertoRicowokeuptoanunspokenreality;thepopulationoftheislandwas
decreasing(Figueroa‐Rodriguezandcolleagues,2012).The2010Censusindicatedthatthe
populationoftheislandsummed3,725,789persons(USCensus,2010).Forthe2000periodthe
populationoftheislandaddedupto3,808,610persons.Acomparisonofbothcensuscounts
evidencesthefirstpopulationdeclineofPuertoRico,adeclineof2.17%.Thelongheld
expectationthattheislandwouldreach4millioninhabitantsdissolvedwhilethegovernment
receivedwithsurprisethealarmingnews.
Despitehavinganunstabletrajectorywithregardstopopulationgrowth,apopulation
declinehadnotbeenprojectedbyacademics,researchers,planningcentersorbygovernment
authorities.ThepurposeofthispaperistoprojectthepopulationofPuertoRicowhile
incorporatingtrendsinthepopulationdynamicsaswellastodiscussthepublicpolicy
implicationsofthepopulationprospectsforPuertoRico.Thispaperseekstoillustratetheneed
forbetterestimatesandprojections,withtheobjectiveoftransformingtheseintoolsforpolicy
decisionmakingandguidesforeconomicandsocialplanning.
POPULATIONTRENDS1910‐2010
ThepopulationtrendsforPuertoRicoindecadesbefore2010hadtendedtopopulation
growth.Despitehavingapopulationgrowthratethathadoscillatedbetween6%and20%,this
rateneverapproachedthezerogrowthnotthenegativegrowtharea(Vázquez‐Calzada,1988).
Figure1presentsthepatternofcensuscountsforthe1910‐2010.

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es,2012).T
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g
uez,2013).
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asurement
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umptionsb
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illion
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ment
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dthe
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ntial
h
eUS
e
hind


Santos&Velázquez Vol.2015‐1
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AmeticulousrevisionoftheassumptionsusingthePuertoRicoCommunitySurvey(PRCS),
allowedidentifyingtwocrucialelementsinthispopulationdecline:(1)thedeclinetofertilityto
1.6childrenbywomen,indicatorthathadremainedbelowreplacementin2000whereitwas
calculatedtobe2.04childrenbywomen(DepartamentodeSalud,2012)and(2)themass
migrationofPuertoRicansfromtheislandtomainlandUnitedStates.Thepossibledriversof
thismigrationwerebetterjobopportunities,andimprovedsocialandeconomicconditions
(Figueroa‐Rodriguezandcolleagues,2012;Figueroa‐Rodriguez,2013).Thenetmigrationfor
thisdecadewasof‐294,442individuals,whichtranslatesina‐7.90%netmigrationrate.TheUS
Censusrevisedthepopulationestimatesinlightofthenewevidenceofadramaticchangein
thepopulationdynamicsofPuertoRico(Figure2,OrangeLine).Thenewestimatepointedto
2004beingthepointofinflexionforthepopulationofPuertoRico,meaning2005wasthefirst
yearwhenthepopulationdeclinestarted,adeclinethathasnotstoppedin2015.In2013,the
populationofPuertoRicowascalculatedtobe3.6millionpersons;anumberlowerthanthe
populationcountforthe2010DecennialCensus.
StudyingthepopulationtrendsforPuertoRico,evenin2010apopulationdeclinewasnot
tobeexpectedifweonlyconsideredbirthratesandmortalityrates.Asitcanbeappreciatedin
Figure3,evenin2010thepopulationwasexpectedtogrow.Thisaccentuatestherolethat
migrationhadinthepopulationdynamicsoftheislandforthatperiod.Inthecurrentmoment
theprominentPuertoRicanDemographer,RaúlFigueroahasindicatedthatthisrealityisabout
tochange.Inthecomingyears,themortalityratewillbehigherthanthebirthrates,whichwill
furtheracceleratethepopulationdeclineoftheisland.Thisiscapturedbyincorporatingthe
prospectivetrendsinthefertilitycomponentinthepopulationprojections.


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6
thePopulat
o
jectthep
o
t
hreedemo
g
o
fthePuert
a
tionsoft
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iplesource
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c
tureisuse
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c
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e,whicha
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e
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ionofPuert
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oRicanpop
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Santos&Velázquez Vol.2015‐1
7
Pt=Po+B–D+(NM)
WherePtisthepopulationatprojectionperiod,Poisthepopulationatbaseperiod,B
arethebirthsbetweenPtandPo,DarethebetweenPtandPoandNMisthenetmigration
betweenPtandPo.Inthefollowingsectionswewillexplainhoweachcomponentwas
incorporatedinourprojectionsandhowweallowedsomevariationinthefertilityand
migrationbaselineindicators.
Fertility:ProspectiveTrends
AgeSpecificFertilityRates(ASFR)werecomputedusingbirthsbyageofthemotherfor
2000and2010.The2000ASFRswereusedfortheprojectionofpopulationfrom2000until
2010.Thenumeratorsfortherateswerethebirthsfor2000or2010andthedenominators
weretheage‐specificpopulationcountsforeachcensusyears.Birthdataforthe2000‐2010
periodwereobtainedfromthePuertoRicoBirthFilespublishedbytheNationalCenterfor
HealthStatistics(NCHS).Birthswereaggregatedbyfiveyearagegroups.
Wehaveincorporatedtheaveragerateofchangeforthefertilityrates.Accordingto
Rowland(2003)someresearchersincorporatetherateofchangeinthedifferentdemographic
processeswhencalculatingpopulationprojections.AccordingtoDávila(2013)fertilityhasbeen
decreasingforeachdecadesincethe1970s.Accordingourcalculationsthefertilityratesfor
PuertoRicowillremainbelowreplacementandcontinuedecreasinginthecomingyears.The
expectedfertilityratesarepresentedinFigure4;additionallywepresenttheprojectedTotal
FertilityRates(TFR)inFigure5.







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heTFRexp
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ofourpr
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urprojecte
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eratetopr
rtilityRate(
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jectionswe
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ojecttheA
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llpriorities
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0
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e
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Santos&Velázquez Vol.2015‐1
9
wouldnotimpactsignificantlythenumberofbirthsforthecomingyears.Theimplicationoflow
fertilitywillbediscussedlaterinthispaper.
Mortality:AstableelementofPuertoRicandemography
Wecalculatedbaselinemortalityusingthepopulationstructurefromthe2010Census.
DataondeathscamefromthePuertoRicoDeathFilesfromtheNationalCenterforHealth
Statistics(NCHS).WecalculatedMortalityRatesforeachagegroupandsex,whichwere
incorporatedinthelifetablesandusedtoderivetheSurvivalRatesforeachsex/age‐group.To
incorporatemortalityinthepopulationprojectionswecalculatedSexSpecificLifeTablesand
calculatedtheSurvivalRatesforeachgroup.
Consistentwithusualmortalityindicatorsindevelopedcountries,malemortalityis
higherthanfemalemortality.Thisdifferenceispresentintheyoungadultagesandmore
markedintheover40yearoldage‐groups.Thismarkeddifferentialsinmortalityrates,also
translateindifferentialsinLifeExpectancies.Accordingtoourlifetablesmaleshavealife
expectancyatbirthof75.38andfemaleshad83.24years,theseresultsareverysimilartothe
calculationspublishedbythePuertoRicoDepartmentofHealth.ThePuertoRicoDepartment
ofHealthcalculatedthelifeexpectanciesin2013as74.85formalesand82.56forfemales,a
differenceofhalfayearandthreequartersofayear(DepartamentodeSalud,2013).
Wedidnotincorporateaprospectivetrendchangeinthisscenariobecausewhenwe
exploredthemortalityestimatestheywerefoundtobeveryrobustandstablewithminimalor
nochangeinmortalityratesformostage‐groups.Thismeansthatforourpopulation
projections,wewillincorporatemortality,throughthe2010SurvivalRatesobtainedfromthe
LifeTables.
Migration:FluctuatingandDifferentMagnitudeScenarios
Migrationwasthemorecomplicatedcomponenttocalculate.WecalculatedNet
MigrationRatesthroughtheVitalStatisticsMethodortheResidualMethod.Thismethodstarts
withabasepopulation(2000)andthensubtractsthedeathsfromeachagegroup(n),proceeds
tomoveforwardtheagestructure(n+1)andaddthebirthsasthenewzeroagegroup.Thisis
doneforallintercensalyearsandtheresultingpopulationisthencomparedwiththedecennial
count(2010)tocalculatethepopulationresidual.Thiscomponentwasincorporatedtothe
populationprojectionsthroughavarietyofscenarios.Figure6presentsthepopulationresidual
ornetmigrationratescalculatedusingtheaforementionedmethod.
Migrationwasincorporatedtothepopulationprojectionsthroughthreepossible
scenarios.Thefirstscenariowasfullmigration,whichassumesmigrationwillcontinuethesame
levelasinthe2000‐2010decade.Thesecondmigrationisthehalfmigrationscenario,which

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ducingthe
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a
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k
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o
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e
b
alance).A
p
opulation;
t
itsmagnitu
d
n
corporate
d
artfromth
o
n
itudeofth
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e
presentth
migrations
c
c
tedtodecl
i
a
tionscenar
t
ohalfofw
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tratingthe
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nario,whe
r
6
Migratio
n
inFigure6,
crisis(Figu
e
o
Ricansevi
e
ninthea
d
previously
u
t
hisoutmigr
d
e.Wehav
e
d
areductio
o
setwome
a
eflowofp
o
t
migration
a
etotalfort
c
enarios.A
s
i
nebelowt
h
ioputsthe
10
hatitwasi
n
effectof
m
r
enetmigr
a
n
Ratesfor
P
migrationi
s
e
roa‐Rodrig
u
dencedby
t
d
olescentp
o
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naddresse
d
ationinflue
n
e
censored
o
nintheim
a
sures,we
a
o
pulationto
a
fter2010.
hepopulati
o
s
itcanbe
h
elevelsin
population
n
theprevi
o
m
igrationa
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a
tionisassu
m
P
uertoRico,
s
seeninve
r
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ezandcoll
e
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heoutmig
r
o
pulations
w
d
factisth
e
n
cesthepa
c
o
utmigratio
n
migration
o
a
llowedvari
o
thethree
a
o
nprojecti
o
appreciate
d
whichthey
oftheislan
o
usdecade.
n
ddeemed
m
edtobez
e
2000‐2010
r
ysimilarw
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e
agues,201
r
ationseen
w
hohave
h
e
outmigrati
c
eofaging
i
n
ofagedp
o
o
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ationinNe
t
a
forementi
o
o
nsfrom20
0
d
by2030t
h
werein20
n
daboveth
e
Vol.2
Afinalsce
n
tobeused
e
ro.
a
ysforMale
2)hasacte
d
inthe20‐3
0
h
ighlevels
o
on(negativ
e
i
nPuertoRi
c
o
pulationt
o
n
tpopulati
o
t
Migration
R
o
nedscenari
0
5until203
0
h
epopulati
o
00(3.8mill
i
e
2000leve
015‐1
n
ario,
asa

sand
d
asa
0
age
o
fnet
e
net
coby
o
0.10
o
nfor
R
ates
i
osas
0
,for
o
nof
i
ons).
l,but

Santos&Velázquez Vol.2015‐1
11
thisscenariohashighlevelsoferror(Table3)andisnotlikelytohappenasmigrationhasbeen
aconstantinPuertoRicanpopulationdynamicssincethe1900s.TheresultsoftheZero
Migrationwillnotbediscussedindetailinthispaper.Theothertwoscenariosmark2015asthe
yearuntilwhichthepopulationofPuertoRicohadpotentialtogrow.Afterit,amarkeddecline
islikelycontinueandby2030thepopulationoftheislandcouldreach3.2millionifthetrends
continueasprojected.
Table 1 Population Projections by Scenario for Puerto Rico, 2005-2030
Scenario 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Full Migration 3,729,700 3,711,330 3,638,330 3,528,582 3,385,355 3,221,535
Half Migration 3,786,253 3,819,867 3,795,473 3,735,976 3,625,286 3,491,678
Zero Migration 3,826,070 3,900,201 3,925,402 3,909,868 3,850,520 3,764,940

InTable2,wepresenttheprincipalindicatorsofthepopulationprojectionsforthe
threemigrationscenariosconsidered.TheseareMedianAge,%ofthePopulationunder20and
65andolder,thedependencyratiosandthedisaggregateddependencyratiosforPuertoRico.
PopulationPyramidsareincludedinAppendix1.The2010,aswellastheprojectedpopulation
illustratedinthepyramidspointtothepopulationofPuertoRicoenteringandhavinga
structureofcontraction,whichisconsistentwiththefindingofdecreasingpopulation,
migrationseemstoplayanimportantroleinthepaceofthetransitiontoan“inverted
pyramid”structureforPuertoRico.Despitetheinfluenceofmigration,allscenariospointtoan
invertedpyramidstructureby2030.











Santos&Velázquez Vol.2015‐1
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Table 2 Population Indicators for Projected Scenarios, Puerto Rico 2000-2030
Indicator Full Migration Scenario
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Median Age (years) 38.51 39.99 40.14 42.18 44.61 46.71
% Population < 20 24.88 22.91 21.38 19.87 18.03 15.81
% Population 65 + 16.46 17.86 19.54 21.28 22.74 24.17
Dependency Ratio 51.85 52.96 54.38 55.17 54.04 54.04
Child Dependency Ratio 26.86 25.65 24.21 22.15 19.02 16.80
Aged Dependency Ratio 24.99 27.31 30.17 33.02 35.03 37.23
Indicator Half Migration Scenario
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Median Age (years) 38.67 40.28 40.21 43.53 45.42 47.58
% Population < 20 24.75 22.74 21.05 19.57 17.66 15.40
% Population 65 + 17.17 19.19 21.28 23.29 25.01 26.64
Dependency Ratio 53.45 55.77 57.89 59.71 59.10 59.47
Child Dependency Ratio 27.10 25.88 24.29 22.51 19.31 16.98
Aged Dependency Ratio 26.35 29.90 33.61 37.19 39.80 42.49
Indicator Zero Migration Scenario
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Median Age (years) 38.70 40.34 40.21 43.51 45.30 47.25
% Population < 20 24.70 22.71 21.12 19.61 18.28 16.66
% Population 65 + 17.58 20.01 22.32 23.28 25.98 27.35
Dependency Ratio 54.50 57.66 60.69 59.77 64.49 64.31
Child Dependency Ratio 27.33 26.11 24.83 22.57 21.01 19.36
Aged Dependency Ratio 27.17 31.55 35.86 37.19 42.47 44.95
Source: Population Projections completed using Cohort-Component Method

Accordingtoourprojections,themedianagewillincreaseinPuertoRicowithmigration
beinginfluentialinthisincrease.InthecaseoftheFullMigrationScenario,themedianage
wouldgoupto46.71years,47.58yearsfortheHalfMigrationand47.25fortheZeroMigration
by2030.ThisindicatesthatthepopulationofPuertoRicowillbeaging;thepaceofthisincrease
willbe2yearsperdecade.Inrelationtoproportionsinspecificagegroups,thedivergingtrends
intheyoungerthan20yearsandtheover65yearsoldpopulationisnotable.Regardlessofthe
migrationscenario,PuertoRicowillexperienceadramaticreductioninthepopulationyounger
than20yearswhichishighlyinfluencedbythedecreaseoffertilityandthemigrationof
individualsinreproductiveages.Additionally,themigrationtrendsforthe2000‐2010andthe
currentmomentindicatethatmigrationisnolongerofanindividualbutofwholefamilies.The

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increasednumberofpersonsinworkingandreproductiveagesisalsoaccompaniedbythe
migrationoftheiroffspringtothemainlandUnitedStates.
Fortheothergroupofinterest(population65yearsandolder)theprojectionsindicate
thissectorofthepopulationwillbearound24.17%and27.35%by2030,whichsupportsour
previousresultofthemarkedincreaseinMedianAge.Themigrationscenariosplayan
importantrolehere,inthecasewherezeromigrationisconsidered,theproportionof
individualsover64,iscloserto30%ofthepopulation,whereasintheothertwoscenariosthis
sectorofthepopulationremainslower.Apreviouslynon‐notedtrendinthemigration
dynamicsoftheislandisthemigrationofpersonswhoareover65yearsold.Accordingtoour
calculations,themigrationofindividualsintheseagegroupsfluctuatebetween‐16%and0%
forspecificagecohorts,withanincreasedlevelofoutmigrationfoundforindividualsover70
yearsold.
ThefinalindicatorpresentedinTable2dealswiththeDependencyRatio.The
dependencyratiogivesusanotionofhowmanypersonsarenotlikelytobeactiveinthe
economic/labormarketversusthenumberofindividualswhoareinhighlyproductiveagesin
termsoflaborforceparticipationandeconomicactivity.Thedisaggregatedratiosalsoprovide
anideaofhoweachcomponentoftheratioisbehavingastimepasses.Thisratioincreasesto
54.04personsby100personsintheworkingagegroupintheFullMigrationscenario.Inthe
caseoftheHalfMigrationscenario,thedependencyrategoesfrom53.45personsby100
personsintheworkingagegroupsto59.47.Theincrementinthedependencyrateisfueledby
theagingofthepopulationofPuertoRico,whichhasbeendiscussedpreviouslybywaysofthe
proportionofindividualsintheunder20andover64agegroups.TheresultsfortheZero
MigrationarealsopresentedinTable2.Whenconsideringtheindependenteffectofeach
componentoftheDependencyRatio,wefoundthatthechangedintheoverallDependency
RatioisheavilyinfluencedbytheincreaseinAgedDependencyRatioandthedecreaseinthe
ChildDependencyRatio.ThisincreaseoftheAgedDependencyRatioisgreaterthanthe
decreaseoftheChildDependencyRatio.Theimplicationsoftheseresultsforthepublicand
privatesectors,aswellasforpublicpolicypurposeswillbedevelopedintheDiscussionssection
ofthispaper.
MeasurementofErrorsforPopulationProjections
Ourprojectionstrategywastousethe2000populationstructureasabaseyearandto
projectthe2005and2010usingourassumedfertility,mortalityandmigrationscenarios.The
totalcountfortheprojectionswascomparedwiththe2010CensusCountforpurposesof
understandingthemarginoferrorofourprojections.

Santos&Velázquez Vol.2015‐1
14
WeusetheMeanPercentError(MPE)asameasureoferror.TheMPEisameasureof
thepercentageofpopulationunderoroverestimatedincomparisontoaknownvalueinthis
casethedecennialcensuscount.TheresultsfortheevaluationarepresentedinTable3.
Table 3 Mean Percent Error (MPE) for Population Projections
Scenario 2010 Projection 2010 Census Mean Percent Error
Full Migration 3,718,078 3,725,789 -0.21
Half Migration 3,819,867 3,725,789 2.53
Zero Migration 3,900,201 3,725,789 4.68

AsitcanbeappreciatedtheFullMigrationScenariocloselyprojectsthetotalpopulation
withanunderestimationoflessthanonepercent(‐0.21%).InthecaseoftheHalfMigration
andtheZeroMigration,thesescenariosoverestimatethetotalpopulationofPuertoRicoby
2.5%andthe4.63%;thisindicatesthatthezeromigrationscenarioshouldnotbeconsidered
whenusingprojectionsforpublicpolicyandplanningdecisions.Despitethesemarkedlevelsof
error,thepopulationstructureindicatorsarefairlysimilarforthethreescenarios.Infuture
casesthehalfmigrationandfullmigrationshouldsufficeintermsofprojectionscenariosbeing
considered.
DISCUSSION
ThedeclineandsystemicagingofthepopulationofPuertoRicohasimportant
implicationsforintheeconomicstabilityoftheisland.Thecommonelementsofmajor
economictheorieshavethepopulationasafactorthatcaninfluencethesupplyanddemandof
servicesandproducts(Parkin,2015).Furthermore,taxationpoliciesconsiderpopulationsize
andstructureimportantforpurposesoftaxes.Anincreaseinthedependencyrateshasbeen
correlatedwithadecreaseintaxratesandtaxrevenues(Razinandcolleagues,2001).Fromthis
perspective,weunderstandthatthedemographictrendsobservedinourprojectionswillhave
numerousimplicationsiftheyarenotaddressedinatimelymanner.
Thefirstimplicationistheaddedpressuretopublicfundedhealth,longtermcare,and
insuranceandwelfaresupportprogramsforolderpopulation.ThegovernmentofPuertoRico
fundsnumerousprogramstohelpolderpopulationcopewiththeirmedicalandsocialneeds.
Oneoftheseprogramsisthehealthcarereform,olderpopulationusethePuertoRicoHealth
Insurance(“lareforma”)asmeanstoobtainmedicines,primaryandspecialistcare.Evenin
today’sparadigmthePRHealthcareReformhasbeenfoundtohavelowlevelsofstability,and
thegovernmenthasnotbeenabletodealwiththeincreasingamountofexpensesthatcome
fromtheneedformoreservicesoftheagedsectorofthepopulation(Santos‐Lozada,2012).

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Thelikelihoodoftheagedpopulationcontinuingtorelyinthisinsurancefortheirhealthneeds
islikelytocontinueorincreaseinthecomingyears.
Theshifttochronicillnessessuchasheartconditions,strokes,chronicobstructive
pulmonarydisease,Alzheimer,anddiabetesrelatedconditionsarelikelytoincreasewiththe
agingofthepopulation.Thesediseasesdonothaveacure,meaningpersonsandphysicianswill
havetoshifttheirprioritiestocopingandlivingwiththediseasesinsteadofeliminatingthe
illness.Additionally,thePuertoRicoHealthcareSystemwillhavetostartcaringforpersons
withmultiplediseases,whichwillposeasachallengeforpurposesoffinancingpublichealth
insuranceliketheonethatisinplace.Amoreoverarchingdiscussionofthesetrendsandtheir
implicationsarefoundinWienerandTilly(2002)wheretheyapproachthesituationof
populationaginginthecaseoftheUnitedStates.
Theemergenceofanagedsectorofthepopulationwillundoubtedlybeaccompaniedby
theemergenceoflong‐termcarecenters,forpersonswhoarecopingwithterminaldiseasesor
whoseoffspringandfamilyarenotabletotakecareof.ArecentpresentationbySantosand
Marazzi(2014)pointedtothepopulationlivinginlong‐termcarecentersincreasinginPuerto
Ricoduringthisdecade.
Intermsofincome,theagedpopulationofPuertoRicohasbeenfoundtobehighly
dependentonincomesupplementsandpensionsystems.AstudybythePuertoRicoCatholic
Universityhasfoundthat39%oftheagedpopulationlivesbelowthepovertylevelinPuerto
Rico.Theheavydependenceonpublicpensionsandincomesupplementshighlightsthe
vulnerabilityofthispopulationtotheeconomicinstabilityofthegovernment.
ThePuertoRicogovernmenthasfounditdifficulttomeettheirfinancialobligations
duringthelast2years.AbatteryoffinancialreformstoPublicEmployee(PuertoRicoAct3,
2013),Teachers(PuertoRicoAct160,2013)andJudge(PuertoRicoAct163,2013)Retirement
Systemshaveeithernotsolvedthefinancialcrisesoftheretirementsystemsorhavebeen
declaredunconstitutionalbythePuertoRicoSupremeCourt.Thislastfactaddsmorepressure
tothegovernmentasabigsectorofthepopulation(“babyboomers”)willberetiredinthe
comingyearsthusaggravatingthedelicatesituationofthesepensionsystems.Theincreasein
thedependencyratewillfurtheraggravatetheeconomicconditionsandstabilityofthese
retirementsystemsaswellasofwelfareincomesupplementsfortheelderlyandthepoor.
Thepopulation65yearsandolderwillrequiremodificationsintheservicesrequested
andavailableforthissectorofthepopulation.Healthservicesareapriorityinthislist.Some
questionsthatneedtobeaddressedbythegovernmentandthepolicymakersinclude:(1)Is
thepublichealthinsuranceableorpreparedtofinancemorebeneficiarieswhowillneedmore
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specializedstafftoprovidequalityservicesforthisincreasingsectorofthepopulation?,(3)
Doeswork‐agepopulationwillbeabletoundertakeorsustaintheoldersectorofthe
population?Regardlessofotherquestionswecanpostulatetheimplicationsofanaging
populationinPuertoRicorequiresastrategicplanwhichincorporatesthedemographicchange
andhowwewilladdressthesechallengesintheshortandlongterms.
Adrasticreductioninschool‐agedchildrenwillundoubtedlybringchallengestothe
currentstructureofthegovernmentandthePuertoRicoEducationSystem.Atthemomentin
whichthispaperisbeingwrittenthegovernmentdealswithadrasticreductioninschool‐aged
childrenandwithabigeducationsystem.Since2011,thegovernmenthasmergededucation
regions,consolidatedschoolsandevenclosedteachinginstitutions.In2014,4,000teachers
wereidentifiedasatriskofnothavingstudentstoteach,thisrepresentsa10%ofthefacultyof
thepubliceducationsystemoftheisland.Despitethedrasticreductioninschool‐agedchildren
educationfacultiescontinuetorecruitstudentsinhighernumbers,agrowingproportionof
thesestudentsendupworkingasteachersinstateslikeTexas,Oklahoma,Florida,NewYorkor
Pennsylvania.
CurrentlythePuertoRicoDepartmentofEducation(PRDE)hasabudgetof3.6billion
dollarsthisismorethanthetotalbudgetofsomeLatinAmericancountrieslikeDominican
Republic.Thesignificantreductioninthenumberofschool‐agedchildrenwillundoubtedly
bringforthchallengesforthefutureofthePRDE.Eitherthegovernmentwillhavetoreducethe
numberofteachersandschoolsortheycouldrefocustheirresourcesintoeducationwitha
lowerteacher‐to‐studentratiowhichhasbeenconsistentlyassociatedwithpositiveoutcomes
instudentlearning.ThecurrenttrendindicatesthePuertoRicoDepartmentofEducationhas
takenthefirstoption.
Finally,thehistoryofPuertoRicohasbeenmarkedbyconstantmigration.Duringthe
lastdecade,theout‐migrationincreased,themigrationratesshownbeforeinthepaper
suggestanegativebalancefortheyoungadultandadultpopulation(20‐30years).Accordingto
theAmericanCommunitySurvey(ACS)themedianageforemigrantsoscillatesbetween27to
30years(RodriguezAyusoandcolleagues,2011).Thelackofopportunitiesinthelaborforce
fortheyoungadultpopulationisaprincipalforcebehindthismigrationtrend.Eveninthe
situation,weshouldmeasurequalityofjobopportunitiesandimprovetheminordertoslow
downthepressurethusreducingtheoutmigration.Animplicationoftheyoungadult
outmigrationisthisgroupalsobelongstothereproductiveageinfluencingthedecreaseinthe
fertilityratesandasaconsequenceweprojectasignificantreductionunder20yearsfrom24%
toaprojected15%by2030.
ForpurposesofpublicpoliciesthegovernmentofPuertoRicohasreliedintheapproval
ofnewtaxestomeettheirfinancialobligations.Thetaxeshavearegressiveeffectinthe

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economyandactaspushfactorsintermsofmigrationofthepopulation.Aclearexamplewas
thetaxationtopetroleumor“lacrudita”,afterataxwasimposedin2013,itwasrevisedand
increasedin2014becausetheprojectedrevenueswerenotmetandwerealreadyassignedto
thePuertoRicoDepartmentofTransportationandPublicWorks.Asoftodaythereductionof
populationishighlyinfluentialinthedeclineandshortageoftaxrevenues.
Weunderstandthattheissuesofpopulationdeclineandpopulationaginghavetobe
addressedimmediatelybythegovernmentofPuertoRico.Themeasuresshouldbegeared
towardscopingwithanincreasingsectorofthepopulationthatwillneedmoresupportin
termsofsocialwelfare,incomesupport,protectionsandtoprotectthestabilityofthepensions
ofthesepopulations.Additionally,thefailuretomeettaxrevenueprojectionsshouldalsobe
understoodasapopulationissueinsteadofataxevasionoracontractionoftheeconomy.A
decreasingtaxablebase(populationsbeingtaxed)willtranslateinlowerrevenueseveniftaxes
areraisedormoretaxesareapproved.Thepopulationelement/dimensionofpublic,welfare
andeconomicpoliciesshouldnotbeignoredinfutureeffortstodealwiththeeconomiccrisisof
PuertoRico.
LIMITATIONS
Weidentifiedthreekeylimitationsforourstudy.ThefirstisthatPuertoRicostopped
collectingrace/ethnicbackgroundsafterthe1990Census.Thedecisionbasedinthenotionthat
“weareallPuertoRicans”hasleftagapinhowwecanaddressandunderstand
transformationsbasedintheethnicbackgroundofthepopulationoftheisland.Astepforward
couldbetostartcollectingthisinformationnotonlyinspecialformsintheDecennialCensus
butalsoinbirthanddeathcertificates,aswellasinfuturepopulationbasedsurveys.Policy
makersshouldrescuetheethnicbackgroundcategoriesthatreflectedthehistoricaland
demographicrootsofsomesectorofthepopulation.
Thesecondlimitationwefoundwaswiththecalculationofnetmigrationrates,
althoughweperformedvarioussensitivityanalyseswereliedonactualtrendsandnon‐
publishedinformationtoallowsomevariationinthemigrationratesforthepost‐2010years.
Thisallowedustobeconservativewithregardstothemagnitudeofnetmigrationandits
impactinourpopulationprojections.
Athirdlimitationemergesfromtheabsenceofdemographicliteraturethatdealswith
thePuertoRicopopulationdynamicsapartfromworkfromthelate90s,andearly2000smost
oftheliteraturewaspublishedbetween1950and1990,whichdoesnotallowustocompare
ourresulttootherworks.Despitetheselimitations,weunderstandthatourpaperpresentsthe
firstanalysisofitskindinthepost‐populationdecreaseera.
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FUTUREDIRECTIONS
Anideabeyondthescopeofouranalysisistodevelopapaperthatconsidersan
accelerationofthemigrationandafasterdeclineinfertilitylevelscouldadduptotheliterature
andtothediscussionofPuertoRico’spopulationprospects.Apossibledevelopmentofthis
methodistocalculateascenarioinwhichmigrationaccelerates(1.5migrationscenario),and
immigrationreducesgradually.Despitebeinganinterestingpostulatethisseemslikeaworkwe
needtoponderbasedonthecurrenttrendsofthepopulationofPuertoRico.Thesetrendswill
beconsultedusingthePuertoRicoCommunitySurveyforanotherstudy.
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Appendix
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Endnotes
iTheopinionsorassertionscontainedhereinaretheprivateviewsoftheauthorsandarenotto
beconstructedasofficialorasreflectingtheviewsoftheinstitutionstheyareaffiliatedwith.
iiThisresearchwassupportedinpartbyanappointmenttotheStudyResearchParticipation
ProgramattheU.S.ArmyInstituteofSurgicalResearchadministeredbytheOakRidgeInstitute
forScienceandEducationthroughaninteragencyagreementbetweentheU.S.Departmentof
EnergyandUSAMRMC.
iiiCalculationswereperformedusing2000and2010USCensuspopulationstructures.Births
anddeathsfortheperiodwereadjustedtoavoiddoubleaccountingofeventsandtoreflect
populationforApril2010.

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