For much of the last four decades, the stock of unsold new homes has tracked sales very closely. Since 1995, however, inventories have fallen far behind rapidly advancing sales. What accounts for the change? Market trends have both reduced the need for inventories and slowed the response of inventories to shifts in demand. At the same time, the long current expansion has strained the resources of
... [Show full abstract] the building industry, creating supply shortages and raising costs. A review of recent data from the U.S. housing sector yields a surprising finding: Although sales of new homes have surged over the last five years of the economic expansion, the stock of new homes has not kept pace. The ratio of inventory to sales, which usually rises during an expansion, has dropped to near-unprecedented lows during the current period of prosperity. In the boom years of 1986-89, the ratio followed the customary pattern, rising from 5.5 to 6.8; by contrast, from 1996 to 1999, the ratio fell from 6.0 to 4.3, and now stands at 4.1.