Article

Critic: The limits of hot spots policing

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Abstract

Introduction This author is a strong advocate of using sophisticated information technology and the latest research findings to guide decisionmaking in police organizations. Hence, this article begins with a brief acknowledgment of the potential benefits of hot spot policing in theory, followed by a serious critique. The thesis of this chapter is that, while the concept of hot spots policing is attractive, we should be disappointed in how scholars have narrowly defined it in theory and research and how police organizations have narrowly practiced it. This approach has failed to embody the fundamental principles of either problem-oriented policing or community policing, which many scholars believe represent the basic pillars of “good policing” in the twenty-first century. Acknowledging the benefits The concept of hot spots is indisputable as a criminological phenomenon and suggests the need for focused responses. From the very beginning of criminological inquiries in nineteenth century France, scholars noted that criminal activity is not randomly distributed, but rather varies by geographic area such as regions, states, and communities (see Eck and Weisburd 1995). More recent micro-level analyses have focused on sizable variations between and within urban neighborhoods. Hence, a sensible policy implication is to recommend the concentration of more resources in these high-crime areas, including police resources (Sherman, Gottfredson, MacKenzie et al. 1997). The most important question, however, is not whether we should assign more resources to problem areas, but rather, what resources should be deployed and how should they be deployed? © Cambridge University Press 2006 and Cambridge University Press, 2009.

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... Strong arguments have been presented for avoiding law enforcement practices that negatively impact public trust and erode community relations (Haberman et al., 2016;Sunshine and Tyler, 2003). As applied to hot spot policing, Tyler et al. (2015) argue that proactive enforcement strategies in crime hot spots risk alienating community members by communicating suspicion and distrust (see also Rosenbaum, 2006). However, Weisburd (2016) counters that evidence for such a "backfire" effect from hot spot policing is not supported by empirical research, with studies finding that hot spot policing interventions have either no impact on public attitudes toward the police Weisburd et al., 2011) or an initial negative impact that abates with time (Kochel and Weisburd, 2017). ...
... First, community members in the treatment areas might experience CEPs as a form of aggressive policing or "stop and frisk" (e.g. see Rosenbaum, 2006), despite the explicit focus on non-investigative community policing. This could result in a "backfire" effect, where residents developed more negative feelings toward police after the intervention. ...
... It is also notable that the CEP intervention did not produce more negative police attitudes. These findings are counter to a potential "backfire" hypothesis, in which additional police presence in high-need areas facilitates enforcement and harms trust in police and perceptions of police legitimacy (Rosenbaum, 2006). With the unique CEP focus on non-investigative interactions, it appears that these potential concerns were abated in this program. ...
Article
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to evaluate an experiment to improve residents’ opinions of the police in Portland, Oregon. Officers conducted community engagement patrols (CEPs) in 60 high-crime areas. The CEPs prioritized non-investigative contacts with community members to build trust and promote positive police–community interactions in designated high-crime locations. It is hypothesized that community members living in/near intervention sites would report greater exposure to officers, more positive interactions and feel more positively about police than residents in control areas. Design/methodology/approach In total, 90 crime hot spots were identified using crime reports and calls for service. Locations were randomized into three groups: 2 CEPs/day ( n =30), 4 CEPs/day ( n =30), and control (i.e. no supplemental patrols, n =30). Officers were dispatched to treatment locations via the computer-aided dispatch system for 90 consecutive days, resulting in 16,200 scheduled CEPs. Surveys were mailed to 11,760 households immediately after the intervention ended and 1,537 were returned (13.1 percent). Findings Residents from intervention areas reported a higher number of positive police contacts, whereas contacts that residents perceived as negative did not differ between the three conditions. Community attitudes, including perceived police legitimacy, were generally unaffected by CEP dosage. Originality/value This paper documents the outcomes of a large-scale field experiment seeking to improve public attitudes toward police using directed CEPs in crime hot spots. Whereas the intervention succeeded in providing more opportunities for positive contact with police, attitude change may necessitate longer-term strategies.
... On the other hand, some have raised concerns that hot spot policing approaches may have a 'backfire effect,' eroding police-community relations and even increasing fear and undermining collective efficacy, particularly if police emphasize aggressive enforcement-oriented strategies (e.g., Kochel, 2011;Rosenbaum, 2019; also see Hinkle & Weisburd, 2008;Weisburd, 2016). For example, heavy police presence and enforcement in hot spots might increase negative interactions between police and community members, increase public fear (of crime and/or police encounters), and lead community members to view police negatively as an occupying force. ...
... Seeing positive police-citizen interactions and engagement may instill a further sense that police are trying to serve the community in positive, collaborative, and respectful ways, consistent with the philosophy of community policing. On the other hand, witnessing higher levels of investigative and enforcement activity may create or intensify a sense that police are treating community members harshly and unfairly, while also perhaps fostering a belief that police have not been effective in preventing crime and disorder, thus necessitating heavier enforcement (e.g., Kochel, 2011;Rosenbaum, 2019). ...
Article
Evidence on how hot spot policing affects community members’ views of police is very limited and inconclusive. Scholars have thus called for further study of community attitudes in hot spots to guide police in the formulation of hot spot strategies—an issue that is especially salient given recent public controversy surrounding policing, particularly in the United States. Using survey responses collected in 2018 from more than 1,000 community members living or working in more than 100 hot spots across 2 mid-sized cities in the United States, this study examines how community members’ perceptions of police activities in hot spots relate to their wider attitudes about police. Bivariate and multivariate analyses indicate that community members in hot spots in both cities exhibit more positive attitudes towards police along several dimensions (e.g., trust and confidence in police, views of police legitimacy, and perceptions of police responsiveness and procedural justice) when they see more frequent patrol and when they see positive police-community interactions. They have more negative views of police when they witness higher levels of investigative and enforcement activity. The findings support hot spot policing strategies that emphasize regular, systematic patrol in hot spots, complemented by positive community engagement efforts and problem-solving work. In contrast, they imply that enhanced enforcement activity in hot spots should be used judiciously.
... First, at the micro or technical level, research shows that some problem-solving components are shallowly implemented. Specifically, scanning and analysis are limited and somewhat superficial, and assessment is often shortchanged (Braga & Bond, 2008;Rosenbaum, 2006;Weisburd & Majmundar, 2017). A second area sits at the organizational or macro-level, and concerns the broader institutionalization of problemsolving into police operations and management (Bond & Nader, 2018;Weisburd, et al., 2020). ...
... Superficial analysis and over-reliance on traditional law enforcement response are examples of weaknesses that impede SARA implementation. Often, when strategies are implemented in high crime locations, officers charged with problem-solving do not have an awareness of specific strategies or research evidence to effectuate the problems (Rosenbaum, 2006). This may result in shallow problem-solving by officers who, instead of applying evidence-based practices and appropriate responses, rely on traditional policing tactics (Braga & Bond, 2008;Cordner & Biebel, 2005;Weisburd & Majmundar, 2017). ...
Article
Police problem-solving is one of the most recognized innovations of recent decades, and evidence provides practitioners with hope in their challenges to affect crime. Yet, practitioners need more than hope as they struggle to implement and institutionalize this innovation. This paper shares the results of an integrated problem-solving intervention situated within a comprehensive approach. A Case of Place intervention served as an instrument of problem-solving, which became institutionalized through analytical and Compstat changes. The intervention guided police and crime analysts through problem-solving processes, ensuring attention to each problem-solving step. Using interrupted time-series, post-intervention results revealed a significant reduction in aggravated assaults, motor vehicle breaks, and robberies, as compared to pre-intervention patterns. Additionally, organizational shifts moved the department towards the goal of holistic problem-solving. This study reveals positive results from the Case of Place problem-solving instrument and may offer a path to address the analytical and institutionalization shortcomings of problem-solving.
... As a consequence, predictive policing can lead to significant overpolicing of specific communities or neighborhoods, in turn rendering them even more susceptible to the detection of further criminal activity, thus creating a feedback loop that reinforces data bias over time and can potentially perpetuate supposedly short-lived risk estimates and turn neighborhoods into perceived crime hot spots, leading to long-term spatial stigmatization (Završnik, 2018: 12). This can also include secondary consequences, such as declining real estate prices and property values (Rosenbaum, 2019). ...
... Carrying out controls more frequently and with more rigor is patrol behavior known from established high-crime areas and hot spots, and it raises questions about the appropriateness and just distribution of police action (Ferguson and Bernache, 2008;Casady, 2011;Ferguson, 2011;Rosenbaum, 2019). The difference between an algorithmically produced risk area and a hot spot is, of course, that the latter is an extrapolation of past crime clusters, whereas the former might not be a crime-ridden neighborhood at all and the presumption of risk is merely based on the identification of a single trigger incident (e.g., a suspected professionally executed burglary). ...
... As a consequence, predictive policing can lead to significant overpolicing of specific communities or neighborhoods, in turn rendering them even more susceptible to the detection of further criminal activity, thus creating a feedback loop that reinforces data bias over time and can potentially perpetuate supposedly short-lived risk estimates and turn neighborhoods into perceived crime hot spots, leading to long-term spatial stigmatization (Završnik, 2018: 12). This can also include secondary consequences, such as declining real estate prices and property values (Rosenbaum, 2019). ...
... Carrying out controls more frequently and with more rigor is patrol behavior known from established high-crime areas and hot spots, and it raises questions about the appropriateness and just distribution of police action (Ferguson and Bernache, 2008;Casady, 2011;Ferguson, 2011;Rosenbaum, 2019). The difference between an algorithmically produced risk area and a hot spot is, of course, that the latter is an extrapolation of past crime clusters, whereas the former might not be a crime-ridden neighborhood at all and the presumption of risk is merely based on the identification of a single trigger incident (e.g., a suspected professionally executed burglary). ...
... As a consequence, predictive policing can lead to significant overpolicing of specific communities or neighborhoods, in turn rendering them even more susceptible to the detection of further criminal activity, thus creating a feedback loop that reinforces data bias over time and can potentially perpetuate supposedly short-lived risk estimates and turn neighborhoods into perceived crime hot spots, leading to long-term spatial stigmatization (Završnik, 2018: 12). This can also include secondary consequences, such as declining real estate prices and property values (Rosenbaum, 2019). ...
... Carrying out controls more frequently and with more rigor is patrol behavior known from established high-crime areas and hot spots, and it raises questions about the appropriateness and just distribution of police action (Ferguson and Bernache, 2008;Casady, 2011;Ferguson, 2011;Rosenbaum, 2019). The difference between an algorithmically produced risk area and a hot spot is, of course, that the latter is an extrapolation of past crime clusters, whereas the former might not be a crime-ridden neighborhood at all and the presumption of risk is merely based on the identification of a single trigger incident (e.g., a suspected professionally executed burglary). ...
... Moving forward, more research is needed to understand which mechanisms are responsible for the negative relationship between low-level arrests and informal social control. Currently, the most prevalent explanation focuses on processes associated with police legitimacy (i.e., order maintenance policing → shapes how officers exercise their authority → affects residents' perceptions of police legitimacy → which influences residents' willingness to work with the police as coproducers of public safety) (Kochel & Weisburd, 2017;Renauer, 2007;Rosenbaum, 2006). In general, the results from this study are supportive of these relationships. ...
... In conclusion, scholars have raised concerns about the long-term collateral community consequences of proactive order maintenance policing, especially if enforcement strategies rely on using arrests for low-level criminal activity as a means to reduce serious crime and violence (Harcourt, 2009;Herbert, 2001;Meares, 2015;Rosenbaum, 2006). These challenges are important, because of the connections among the hypothesized outcomes associated with low-level arrests, the weakening of systems of formal and informal social control, and manifestation of serious crime and violence (Sampson et al., 1997;Tyler, 2006Tyler, , 2010. ...
Article
This study was designed to examine the effects of arrests for low‐level criminal activity on key features of police–community relations and the capacity of the neighborhood to regulate behavior of residents. Multilevel mixed‐effects modeling was used with residents (N = 826) living in police beats (N = 51) in Chicago to test the hypotheses that higher arrest rates were associated with less police legitimacy, less willingness to work with the police and less neighborhood informal social control. The results indicated that more aggressive enforcement was associated with less capacity for informal social control. The findings also suggested that higher arrest rates were directly related to more legitimacy and indirectly related to less legitimacy through residents’ negative experiences with police. For residents affected by crime and disorder but not burdened by aggressive enforcement, the use of arrests to reduce incivilities may be viewed positively and related to stronger beliefs about legitimacy. In contrast, trust and confidence in police may be reduced for those residents who experience the costs associated with low‐level arrests. Regardless of the short‐term effects, if aggressive low‐level policing undermines the effectiveness of social control systems in the neighborhood, communities will be less safe in the long term.
... Despite the research-based evidence on the ability of hot spots policing to reduce crime and disorder, there are concerns about fairness and police-public relations when the strategy is used (Kochel 2011;Rosenbaum 2006;Braga et al. 2012;Weisburd 2018;Weisburd and Telep 2014). These concerns center on the argument that place-focused police activities run the risk of undermining police-public relations because of considerable police intrusion into people's daily lives. ...
Article
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Research has focused extensively on the situational, legal, and extralegal factors of racial disparity in police practices (i.e., stops, citations, arrests). However, little quantitative analysis exists on the micro-space factors that also could lead to racial disparity in these outcomes. The primary purpose of this study is to understand whether (1) the level of African-American density and crime concentration at block groups are associated with racial disparity in police arrests, and (2) the level of crime concentration moderates the relationship between the level of African-American density and racial disparity. The results showed that African-American density was significantly and negatively related to racial disparity in police arrests. However, the level of crime concentration did not affect the racial disparity and did not moderate the relationship between African-American density and racial disparity.
... Existing research shows that place-based strategies like hot spot policing can be used to effectively combat crime (Braga et al. 2014;Weisburd and Braga 2006;Weisburd and Telep 2014). However, critics argue that they may also produce unintended racial disparities and strained relations between police and communities of color (Rosenbaum 2006). In response, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine recently called for additional research into place-based policing strategies, including hot spot policing (NASEM 2018). ...
Article
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Street robbery incident location data recorded over a 3-year period were aggregated into a sample of crime panels (N = 78) and used to construct a series of prospective hot spot maps, based on kernel density estimation. Panels of crime data were analyzed to determine whether the predictive accuracy of prospective hot spot mapping varied by victims’ race and ethnicity. Results from this exploratory study showed that the predictive accuracy of forecasts varied between three groups compared (i.e., White, Black, and Hispanic victims), even after the racial and ethnic composition of each crime panel analyzed was considered. Current findings raise concerns about the potential impact that crime forecasting could have on racial and ethnic minorities, including less protection for some communities of color, but increased police-public contact for others. Implications for place-based policing and on the future of scholarship in this area are discussed.
... In fact, the police officers act as if they were in a high-crime area. Although police practices in high-crime areas or crime hot spots, respectively, can be highly problematic (Ferguson, 2011;Rosenbaum, 2019), they are more challenging in predicted risk areas, as the crime risk there is more abstract and dynamic. That is, police have less cause to intervene in prediction areas than in high-crime areas, as data-driven tips from crime prediction software are not (yet) accurate enough to establish reasonable suspicion (Ferguson, 2017, pp. ...
Chapter
This chapter examines various levels of human and non-human-mediated forms of bias in place-based predictive policing that may lead to discriminatory outcomes. Informed by science and technology studies (STS), and drawing on empirical data on the implementation and utilization of crime prediction software in Germany and Switzerland, we grasp predictive policing as a socio-technical assemblage, encompassing not only the technical predictions themselves but also the enactment of the predictions on the street level by police—which can also have serious ramifications including discrimination. Further, we consider the broader socio-political and historical contexts of these predictive technologies and dispute technocentric accounts of discrimination in predictive policing. Rather, we argue for greater attention to be paid to the socio-political and historical contexts from which such technologies and practices emerge. Hence, we contend that STS approaches are vital for an appropriate understanding of the discriminatory potency of (place-based) predictive policing, as we need to decenter technology in accounts of discrimination in predictive policing. Our argument unfolds across four steps. First, we present a short introduction to predictive policing and highlight its socio-technical nature. Second, we analyze the main dimensions of discrimination sources in place-based predictive policing. Third, we argue for the need to decenter technology and call for an appreciation of broader socio-political and historical perspectives in the analysis of predictive policing. Fourth and finally, we argue for the need to incorporate science and technology studies (STS) into the analysis of the discriminatory potential of predictive policing.
... It has been empirically proven that hotspot policing is more productive and efficient than regular homogeneous citywide patrolling (Braga, Papachristos, and Hureau, 2012;Chainey, Serrano, and Veneri, 2017;Cafferata, 2018). Nevertheless, when hotspot neighborhoods are over-patrolled, questions arise from a justice perspective, as patrols can become profiling operations (Green, 1999;Rosenbaum, 2006). Moreover, hotspot patrols can turn into aggressive policing, which doesn't reduce crime, as shown by Gingerich and Oliveros (2018) and Bullock and Garland (2018). ...
Book
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Crime is a major problem in Latin America and the Caribbean. With 9 percent of the world's population, the region accounts for 33 percent of global homicides. Using new, extensive survey data, we endeavor to identify what anti-crime policies citizens in the region demand from their governments. We also analyze who is demanding what and why. We find that harsher penalties appear to be the preferred weapon in the anti-crime arsenal but people are willing to spend public moneys not only for punishment, but also for anti-poverty and detection policies. Citizens recognize that allocating resources to the police is better than subsidizing private security for citizens. Nevertheless, most oppose raising taxes to fund the police, a reluctance that might stem from mistrust in governments' ability to manage these resources. Mistrust, misinformation, and impatience combine to create flawed anti-crime policy. Educating citizens both about crime and about the fiscal consequences of their policy preferences may help move the region's public opinion toward a better policy equilibrium. Governments should also invest in their capability to design and deliver evidence-based solutions for fighting crime, and work to increase trust levels among citizens.
... This research thus compliments the large research literature on hot spots (Braga 2001(Braga , 2005Groff et al. 2015;Sherman and Weisburd 1995) and problem-oriented policing (Braga and Bond 2008;Braga et al. 1999), both of which point to suggestive evidence that the effects of intensive policing strategies operates primarily via general deterrence (Chalfin and McCrary 2017;Nagin 2013). Importantly, while prior literature tends to find that lighting reduces fear (Painter 1996) and increases in a general feeling of well-being (Hanslmaier, 2013), there is little evidence that hot spots policing has the same ancillary benefits (Kochel and Weisburd 2017;Ratcliffe et al. 2015;Rosenbaum 2006;Weisburd et al. 2011). ...
Article
Full-text available
Objectives This paper offers novel experimental evidence that violent crimes can be successfully reduced by changing the situational environment that potential victims and offenders face. We focus on a ubiquitous but understudied feature of the urban landscape—street lighting—and report the first experimental evidence on the effect of street lighting on crime. Methods Through a unique public partnership in New York City, temporary street lights were randomly allocated to 40 of the city’s public housing developments. Results We find evidence that communities that were assigned more lighting experienced sizable reductions in nighttime outdoor index crimes. We also observe a large decline in arrests indicating that deterrence is the most likely mechanism through which the intervention reduced crime. Conclusion Results suggests that street lighting, when deployed tactically, may be a means through which policymakers can control crime without widening the net of the criminal justice system.
... Because any hot spots approach is vulnerable to potential negative consequences for police legitimacy (e.g. see Kochel, 2011;Rosenbaum, 2006), Braga and Weisburd (2010) suggest that hot spots policing should be carried out with attention to procedural justice and concerns with police legitimacy. This in our view would be a more productive way to implement hot spots approaches. ...
... The law enforcement game has rendered the police helpless in mobilising sustained support from residents in preventing and solving serious crimes. Indeed, some have argued that aggressive enforcement, especially for low-level offences, may undermine police legitimacy as residents begin to feel like targets rather than partners of the police (Rosenbaum, 2006). Moreover, aggressive law enforcement practices aimed at low-level offences have been found to generate negative consequences in communities. ...
Chapter
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This chapter examines the sociological roots of the current problems in contemporary policing. Employing Pierre Bourdieu’s concepts of field, habitus, capital, and doxa the chapter begins by highlighting the cultural mechanisms by which ineffective policing practices are maintained and reproduced. In an example from Wilmington, Delaware in the United States, the authors show how the ‘game’ on the field of policing is primarily focused on law enforcement outputs. This game shapes the worldview and dispositions of officers (habitus) who are recognised and rewarded (capital) for acting in ways that align with its logic. This process creates the condition doxa, in which the field of policing is mistakenly viewed as the natural way it should be rather than as socially constructed, arbitrary, and changeable. This chapter also considers why perspectives on police reform diverge.
... First, using reported crimes as a main outcome of interest may be problematic. On the one hand, a heightened foot patrol presence may cause residents to become resentful, and thus unwillingly to share information with the police or even report victimization (see Kochel 2011;Rosenbaum 2006;but, cf., Weisburd et al. 2011). On the other hand, this formal presence increases the frequency of contact between citizens and officers, perhaps resulting in a net increase in crimes reported to the police. ...
Article
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Objectives: The New York City Police Department’s “Summer All Out” (SAO) initiative was a 90-day, presence-based foot patrol program in a subset of the city’s patrol jurisdictions. Methods: We assessed the effectiveness of SAO initiative in reducing crime and gun violence using a difference-in-differences (DiD) approach. Results: Results indicate the SAO initiative was only associated with significant reductions in specific property offenses, not violent crime rates. Foot patrols did not have a strong, isolating impact on violent street crime in 2014 or 2015. Deployments on foot across expansive geographies also has a weak, negligible influence on open-air shootings. Conclusions: The findings suggest saturating jurisdictions with high-visibility foot patrols has little influence on street-level offending, with no anticipatory or persistent effects. Police departments should exercise caution in deploying foot patrols over large patrol jurisdictions.
... First, such an approach to policing might result in diffusion of crimes to nearby areas [221], which calls for creating robust models of incident prediction [100]. Secondly, the possible adverse effects of increased interactions of police with citizens have also been widely discussed and studied [236,237,238,239,240,241,242]. We refrain from discussing this in detail, since this review is specifically focused on the algorithmic aspects of ERM systems. ...
Preprint
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Emergency response is one of the most pressing problems faced by communities across the globe. In the last fifty years, researchers have developed statistical, analytical, and algorithmic approaches for designing emergency response management (ERM) systems. In this survey, we present models for incident prediction, resource allocation and dispatch concerning urban emergency incidents like accidents and crimes. We highlight the strengths and weaknesses of prior work in this domain and explore the similarities and differences between different incident types. Finally, we present future research directions. To the best of our knowledge, our work is the first comprehensive survey that explores the entirety of ERM systems.
... Some policing scholars have argued that all invasive police interventions may increase citizens' negative feelings about the police (Rosenbaum, 2006). These feelings are particularly prominent in high-crime minority communities, where views of the state, in general, and the police in particular are often more negative to begin with (Schafer et al. 2003;Tyler and Wakslak 2004;Wilson et al. 2004;Wesley 2005;Wesley 2006; Gau and Brunson 2010;Tyler et al. 2015). ...
Article
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Objectives Invasive security practices create resentment, especially when targeting minority groups. Many studies of homeland security as well as of general policing practices, emphasized the harm such security checks produce; however, they could not tell us what effect avoiding these practices had on perceptions of trust.Methods Our study follows a security screening reform in Israel’s Ben-Gurion international airport, a reform that was done to eliminate a specific practice which we found, in a previous study, to cause significant emotional harm. Employing a quasi-experimental design, we tested the effect that avoiding that specific harmful component had on perception of trust among Israeli citizens of Arab ethnicity.ResultsWe found that eliminating that harmful component of the security screening was highly effective in improving the feelings of Israeli citizens of Arab ethnicity.Conclusion We found that limited trust and perceptions of unfair treatment are not inevitable feelings among minorities, even in stressful situations such as airport security screening, as they predominantly depend not on background characteristics, but rather on the characteristics of the direct treatment they receive.
... Thus, effective policing strategies need to develop measures to enhance the public confidence in police work, and inspections into police forces assess the efforts made by the police to increase their public confidence at different geographical areas (HMICFRS 2017). This is especially important in the case of place-based policing strategies, which have been criticised for having negative impacts on the perceptions about the police of targeted communities (Rosenbaum 2006). ...
Article
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There is growing need for reliable survey-based small area estimates of crime and confidence in police work to design and evaluate place-based policing strategies. Crime and confidence in policing are geographically aggregated and police resources can be targeted to areas with the most problems. High levels of spatial autocorrelation in these variables allow for using spatial random effects to improve small area estimation models and estimates' reliability. This article introduces the Spatial Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Predictor (SEBLUP), which borrows strength from neighboring areas, to place-based policing. It assesses the SEBLUP under different scenarios of number of areas and levels of spatial autocorrelation and provides an application to confidence in policing in London. The SEBLUP should be applied for place-based policing strategies when the variable's spatial autocorrelation is medium/high, and the number of areas is large. Confidence in policing is higher in Central and West London and lower in Eastern neighborhoods.
... All of these approaches have the potential to enhance police relationships with residents with PMI, heighten feelings of safety, lessen fear of crime, and build trust with the police (see White & Weisburd, 2017).A second, related implication of our research has to do with our findings regarding hot spots. Rosenbaum (2006) argues that living on a hot spot street can cause residents to perceive their neighborhood more negatively and impact feelings of safety within these communities. Our data support Rosenbaum's thesis regarding people with mental health problems. ...
Article
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People who live in places with high levels of crime and disorder are more likely to experience mental illness compared with those who do not live in these types of place (Weisburd et al., 2018; Weisburd & White, 2019). The increased police presence on high crime streets may also increase the likelihood that these individuals will encounter law enforcement. There is a strong body of literature focused on the relationship between neighborhoods and the physical and mental health of residents (e.g. Arcaya et al., 2016; Duncan & Kawachi, 2018; Leventhal & Brooks‐Gunn, 2003), but there are very few studies that look at the perceptions of people with mental illness directly, particularly as they relate to the environment of the street on which they live and attitudes toward the police. In turn, existing studies generally look at the most serious mental health problems (e.g. schizophrenia), ignoring more common mental health concerns such as post‐traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and depression. This paper uses self‐report data from a large in‐person survey of people who live on crime hot spot and non‐hot spot streets in order to assess attitudes among a broader group of persons with mental health problems. Furthermore, we examine the interaction between living in crime hot spots and non‐hot spots and perceptions of these residents. Our findings in this broader sample confirm earlier studies that identify greater fear and less trust of the police among persons with mental illnesses. At the same time, our findings suggest that fear of crime and perceptions of police are moderated by living in a crime hot spot.
... Thus, effective policing strategies need to develop measures to enhance the public confidence in police work, and inspections into police forces assess the efforts made by the police to increase their public confidence at different geographical areas (HMICFRS, 2017). This is especially important in the case of place-based policing strategies, which have been criticised for having negative impacts on the perceptions about the police of targeted communities (Rosenbaum, 2006). ...
Thesis
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Criminological research is moving towards the study of small geographic areas. Crime and crime perceptions are influenced by environmental features and contextual conditions that are more common in some places than others, and therefore these are unequally distributed in space. By visualising criminological phenomena with maps at small area level, researchers are able to examine their immediate environmental explanations, and police forces can design targeted strategies to reduce crime and increase public safety. The two main sources of data for mapping crime are police records and surveys, and crime perceptions are mainly recorded by surveys. Although police-recorded crimes can be used for crime mapping, these suffer from a high risk of bias arising from victims’ underreporting. Victimisation surveys record information about unreported crimes, fear of crime and attitudes towards policing. However, surveys tend to be designed to record representative samples for large geographies, and small areas suffer from small sample sizes. Small samples do not allow for direct estimates of adequate precision. In order to produce reliable small area estimates of survey-recorded crime and perceptions about crime, small area estimation techniques introduce models to borrow strength across related areas. Small area estimators can incorporate spatially and temporally correlated random effects to increase the estimates’ reliability. The primary goal of this thesis is to bridge the gap between criminology and small area estimation, by providing a framework of theory, simulation experiments and applications for the use of small area estimation in criminological research. This is an alternative format thesis (by publications) including four papers framed between an introduction, literature review and conclusions. The first chapters present a discussion about the move in criminology towards the study of micro places, as well as an introduction to the small area estimation methods used in this dissertation (i.e. Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Predictor (EBLUP) based on Fay-Herriot model, Spatial EBLUP (SEBLUP), Rao-Yu model and Spatial-temporal EBLUP). The first paper provides a simulational assessment of the SEBLUP under different scenarios of number of areas and spatial autocorrelation, and produces estimates of confidence in policing at a ward level in London. The second paper produces estimates of worry about crime –burglary and violence– at a regional level in Europe and examines its predictors. The third paper produces estimates of perceived neighbourhood disorder in Manchester. The fourth paper presents estimates of crimes unknown to police –a measure of dark figure of crime– at neighbourhood and local level in England and Wales. Substantive and methodological theory and exemplar studies are integrated to show the utility of applying small area estimation to analyse some topics of interest in criminology. By expanding the body of research using small area estimation in criminological research, these methods may become a core tool for crime analysts and geographic criminologists.
... Police force members who identify as members of the LGBTQ2+ communities can take leadership roles in the above endeavours. The visibility of activist LGBTQ2+ organizations, instead of police alone, in neighborhood "hot spots" is shown to be more successful as aggressive policing tactics frequently used in hot spots could undermine the legitimacy of the police, which in turn could undermine the long-term effectiveness of crime control, given that crime prevention is heavily dependent on the cooperation and law-abiding behaviour of the public (Rosenbaum, 2019;316). ...
Article
Highlights • Intersectional identities matter in policing and public safety based on understanding LGBTQ2+ experiences. • Inclusive public safety planning requires empathetic understanding of intersectional LGBTQ2+ peoples’ voices and experiences. • LGBTQ2+ people perceive urban safety differently from cisgender heteronormative subjects due to their unique intersectional gendered identities. • Racialized LGBTQ2+ people under-report hate crimes to the police, perceived as perpetrators of harassment. • LGBTQ2+ survivors’ polyvocality and lived experiences can help police forces, environmental urban planners and psychologists develop more empathetic public safety program design.
... Perceptions of racial bias in policing became salient with the use of aggressive police practicessuch as pretext stops, stop-question-and-frisk tactics, and zero-tolerance policingwhich reached epic proportions across cities, particularly New York City, in the 1990s (Zimring, 2007(Zimring, , 2012. Critics observe that minorities, particularly poor, Black Americans, bore the brunt of police strategies targeting violence and disorder in the innercity (Figures & Legewie, 2019;Gelman, Fagan, & Kiss, 2007;Rosenbaum, 2006;Taylor, 2006;Weitzer, 2000). Black Americans were frequently and disproportionately subjected to stops, searches, and ultimately arrest, suggesting that while aggressive enforcement models may have tremendous benefits for some, they confer "widespread harassment and misery" on others (Butler, 2017;Epp, Maynard-Moody, & Haider-Markel, 2014;Hayes, 2017). ...
Article
Based on a 2017 national survey of 1,000 Black Americans, perceptions regarding the implications of Donald Trump’s election as President on race relations, police-minority relations, and police treatment of Black citizens in the United States were examined. Findings suggest the existence of a “Trump Effect.” With minor variation across demographic groups, the survey respondents expressed overall negative perceptions concerning the effects of President Trump’s election. In particular, they expressed the belief that his presidency shows that the United States is a racist society, will strain police-minority relationships, and will create a climate in which African Americans are more likely to be arrested or subjected to police violence. At issue is not just African Americans’ distrust of President Trump but, importantly, whether his emphasis on “law and order” and dismissal of minority-group concerns attenuates the legitimacy of law enforcement in the eyes of African Americans.
... Thus, effective policing strategies need to develop measures to enhance the public confidence in police work, and inspections into police forces assess the efforts made by the police to increase their public confidence at different geographical areas (HMICFRS 2017). This is especially important in the case of place-based policing strategies, which have been criticised for having negative impacts on the perceptions about the police of targeted communities (Rosenbaum 2006). ...
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The use of spatially correlated random area effects is increasingly in use in small area estimation field. The spatial Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Predictor (SEBLUP), which borrows strength from correlated random area effects between neighbouring areas, have shown to reduce the estimates' variance and bias, both under simulated and real population studies. However, little attention has received the study of the effect of the number of areas under study, m, on SEBLUP performance. This paper assesses the effect of m and the spatial correlation parameter, rho, on SEBLUP performance, in terms of bias and mean squared error. A simulation study and an application to confidence in police work in Europe are conducted. Our results show that SEBLUP estimator tends to perform better than traditional model-based estimators not only when the spatial correlation parameter rho is closer to 1 and-1, but also when m is larger. Such results suggest that SEBLUP estimator is an appropriate method to be used when the level of spatial correlation of the variable of interest is high and/or when the number of areas under study is large. From a substantive perspective, the results of our application show that confidence in police work is higher in most Northern and Central European regions, while lower proportions of citizens who think the police do a good or very good job are estimated in Southern and Eastern regions. Also, the homicide rate, mean age and Human Development Index are shown to be good predictors of confidence in police work.
... Indeed, Rosenbaum (2006) cautions that hot spots policing can easily become zero-tolerance and indiscriminate aggressive tactics can drive a wedge between the police and communities. An evaluation of the adverse system side effects of Operation Sunrise, described here as the Philadelphia Drug Corners Crackdown, found that initiative strained the local judicial system by generated a high volume of arrests that resulted in a significant increase in fugitive defendants (Goldkamp & Vilcica, 2008). ...
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Background In recent years, crime scholars and practitioners have pointed to the potential benefits of focusing crime prevention efforts on crime places. A number of studies suggest that there is significant clustering of crime in small places, or “hot spots,” that generate half of all criminal events. Researchers have argued that many crime problems can be reduced more efficiently if police officers focused their attention to these deviant places. The appeal of focusing limited resources on a small number of high‐activity crime places is straightforward. If crime can be prevented at these hot spots, then citywide crime totals could be reduced. Objectives To assess the effects of focused police crime prevention interventions at crime hot spots. The review also examined whether focused police actions at specific locations result in crime displacement (i.e., crime moving around the corner) or diffusion (i.e., crime reduction in surrounding areas) of crime control benefits. Search Methods A keyword search was performed on 15 abstract databases. Bibliographies of past narrative and empirical reviews of literature that examined the effectiveness of police crime control programs were reviewed and forward searches for works that cited seminal hot spots policing studies were performed. Bibliographies of past completed Campbell systematic reviews of police crime prevention efforts were reviewed and hand searches of leading journals in the field were completed. Experts in the field were consulted and relevant citations were obtained. Selection Criteria To be eligible for this review, interventions used to control crime hot spots were limited to police‐led prevention efforts. Suitable police‐led crime prevention efforts included traditional tactics such as directed patrol and heightened levels of traffic enforcement as well as alternative strategies such as aggressive disorder enforcement and problem‐oriented policing. Studies that used randomized controlled experimental or quasiexperimental designs were selected. The units of analysis were limited to crime hot spots or high‐activity crime “places” rather than larger areas such as neighborhoods. The control group in each study received routine levels of traditional police crime prevention tactics. Data Collection and Analysis Sixty‐five studies containing 78 tests of hot spots policing interventions were identified and full narratives of these studies were reported. Twenty‐seven of the selected studies used randomized experimental designs and 38 used quasiexperimental designs. A formal meta‐analysis was conducted to determine the crime prevention effects in the eligible studies. Random effects models were used to calculate mean effect sizes. Results Sixty‐two of 78 tests of hot spots policing interventions reported noteworthy crime and disorder reductions. The meta‐analysis of key reported outcome measures revealed a small statistically significant mean effect size favoring the effects of hot spots policing in reducing crime outcomes at treatment places relative to control places. The effect was smaller for randomized designs but still statistically significant and positive. When displacement and diffusion effects were measured, a diffusion of crime prevention benefits was associated with hot spots policing. Authors' Conclusions The extant evaluation research suggests that hot spots policing is an effective crime prevention strategy. The research also suggests that focusing police efforts on high‐activity crime places does not inevitably lead to crime displacement; rather, crime control benefits may diffuse into the areas immediately surrounding the targeted locations.
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This study investigates the effects of hot spots policing on self-initiated officer activity using data from a violent crime reduction strategy implemented in Dallas, TX. A strong body of empirical evidence has demonstrated that violent crime is disproportionately concentrated in very small, specific geographic locations. Hot spots policing leverages crime concentration by focusing police resources in these small, crime-prone areas. While extensive research demonstrates that hot spots policing is effective in reducing crime, critics argue that focused enforcement efforts may lead to increased proactive activities targeting residents. To date, no research has specifically examined the impact on self-initiated officer activities involving citizen interactions within communities exposed to hot spots policing. Moreover, there has been little exploration of the differences between hot spots strategies that use proactive approaches compared with lighter footprint strategies. We address this gap in the literature using a multi-year assessment of the effects of two types of hot spots policing on self-initiated activity. We found differential impacts on self-initiated activity in areas treated with deterrence-based, high visibility (HV) strategies versus those treated with proactive, offender-focused approaches (OF). Hot spots policing had no effect on self-initiated activity in HV treated areas while there were statistically significant increases in four of five measured categories in the OF treated locations. This study highlights the need for law enforcement agencies to adopt tailored approaches specific to crime conditions in different areas. While proactive approaches may be necessary in specific locations, agencies should understand both the crime reduction benefits and potential impacts on local communities.
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Given its empirical and public support, increasing police presence seems to be a viable preventive policy option for police agencies. However, the theoretical and empirical literature is not clear on whether this support would vary along race/ethnicity and perceived neighborhood disadvantage, which is relevant given that policies of this kind would likely have a greater impact on disadvantaged communities of color. Using survey data from a national sample, we found that racial and ethnic identity were unrelated to support for increased police presence, while perceived neighborhood disorder was related to greater support for police presence. We also found that neighborhood disorder, social cohesion, and informal social control were indirectly related to support for increased police presence through perceptions of police legitimacy and fear of crime, demonstrating some evidence of the overpolicing-underpolicing paradox in disadvantaged communities. Policy implications of these findings are discussed.
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Purpose The objectives of this study are to (a) identify spatial and temporal crime concentrations, (b) supplement the traditional place-based analysis that defines hot spots based on counted incidents with an analysis of crime severity and (c) add to the research of hot spots with an analysis of offender data. Design/methodology/approach This study explores crime concentration in mass transit settings, focusing on Edmonton’s Light Rail Transit (LRT) stations in 2017–2022. Pareto curves are used to observe the degree of concentration of crime in certain locations using multiple estimates; trajectory analysis is then used to observe crime patterns in the data on both places and offenders. Findings A total of 16.3% of stations accounted for 50% of recorded incidents. Train stations with high or low crime counts and severity remained as such consistently over time. Additionally, 3.6% of offenders accounted for 50% of incident count, while 5% accounted for 50% of harm. We did not observe differences in the patterns and distributions of crime concentrations when comparing crime counts and harm. Research limitations/implications Hot spots and harm spots are synonymous in low-crime-harm environments: high-harm incidents are outliers, and their weight in the average crime severity score is limited. More sensitive severity measures are needed for high-frequenty, low-harm enviornments. Practical implications The findings underscore the benefits of integrating offender data in place-based applied research. Originality/value The findings provide additional evidence on the utility of place-based criminology and potentially cost-effective interventions.
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The book comprises 14 peer-reviewed chapters based on research on crime and security threats in relation to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. The book represents a multidisciplinary work that combines different views of safety and security provision in local environments, at the national level, as well as in the international environment. The chapters include findings of a literature review, empirical research on crime and victimization of individuals, case studies, specific forms of crime, institutional and civil society responses to security threats, as well as legal and police and policing perspectives in relation to safety and security provision in modern society.
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Objectives This study tests whether Problem-Oriented Policing (POP) in hot spots of crime reduces property and violent crime in three cities, comparing POP versus control hot spots. We also examined low-levels versus high-levels of POP versus control on crime separately for pre-, during- and post-intervention. Methods This paper reports on a randomized controlled trial of POP replicated in three communities over one year using Poisson and negative binomial regression models. Results We did not find any significant intervention effect on violent crimes post intervention in any of the three sites but observed some unintended iatrogenic/negative effect of lowlevel treatment on property crimes in two sites. Conclusions Due to difficulties experienced in implementing POP, we caution against concluding POP does not work. Instead, low level POP implementation during the era of post COVID-19 and anti-policing sentiment post the George Floyd murder may not be effective in reducing property and violent crime.
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The study examined the effects of police behavioral intervention on residents’ reported level of fear toward the police, both directly and through police-resident familiarity and perceptions of patrol frequency and patrol volume. Data was obtained from a project on behavioral intervention at New York City Housing Authority (NYCHA) developments, involving adult residents residing in the housing developments. A survey was conducted after the intervention to collect data on residents’ perceptions of the police. Through path analysis, the results show that the intervention did not significantly impact residents’ fear of the police either directly or indirectly through the mediators. The intervention did not impact perceptions of patrol frequency, patrol volume, or police-resident familiarity. While patrol volume and police-resident familiarity did not impact residents’ fear of the police, patrol frequency significantly reduced residents’ fear of the police, signaling the significance of frequent police presence in the neighborhoods. The implications are discussed.
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By drawing on research on territorial stigmatization, critical cartography, and visual criminology, this article develops a critical literacy of crime maps to scrutinize their ability to function as adequate representations of crime. Focusing on online newspaper crime maps of homicides published by one of Chicago’s major newspapers, the Chicago Sun-Times , this article argues that crime maps assign a criminogenic character to urban spaces by spatially inscribing homicides onto community maps. In particular, this article devotes attention to the power of crime visualizations through cartography, developing strategies to educate readers about how to critically think about and read crime maps’ visualizations of the spatiality of crime. This article is intended as both a critique of crime maps’ spatio-visual practices as well as an attempt to develop a critical literacy of crime maps.
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Evidence‐based policing focuses on using the findings and conclusions drawn from rigorous research to help guide policy and practice. Based on a number of experimental and quasi‐experimental studies, there is strong support for the idea that evidence‐based policing can reduce violence. Focusing in particular on place‐based approaches, this chapter reviews what is known about the impact of various policing strategies on reducing violent crime. We review evidence on a series of innovations since the 1980s in policing that all show overall positive effects in tests examining violent crime outcomes. These include hot spots policing, directed patrol programs focused on gun violence, focused deterrence or pulling levers programs, and problem‐oriented policing. We also discuss broken windows policing, a popular strategy for which the evidence is more mixed. Overall, we find evidence that police can be most effective in reducing violence when they are place based, focused, and proactive.
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Over the past decade, the Los Angeles Police Department has experimented with a unique model of community-oriented policing called the Community Safety Partnership (CSP). The program places a dedicated set of CSP officers in select housing developments and neighborhoods to engage with residents to better understand and ultimately address the root causes of crime. This study examined the first four waves of the program to assess whether, and the extent to which, the program reduced violent crime. Results reveal significant variation in program effects, with the first wave yielding crime reductions while subsequent waves experienced little to no change in violent crime. Supplemental analyses suggest that the null results for the final three waves of the program were not confounded by increases in crime reporting and reveal that crime reductions following the program’s first wave were not achieved through increases in traditional enforcement (e.g., arrests).
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Governments in low- and middle-income countries routinely deploy their armed forces for domestic policing operations. Advocates of these policies claim they reduce crime, while detractors argue they undermine human rights. Here we experimentally evaluate a military policing intervention in Cali, Colombia. The intervention involved recurring, intensive military patrols targeting crime hot spots, randomly assigned at the city block level. Using administrative crime and human rights data, surveys of more than 10,000 residents, and firsthand observations from civilian monitors, we find little to no credible evidence that military policing reduced crime or improved perceptions of safety during the intervention. If anything, we find that military policing probably exacerbated crime after the intervention was complete. We also find evidence of increased human rights abuses in our survey data (though not in the administrative data or in the firsthand observations of civilian monitors), largely committed by police officers rather than soldiers. We argue the benefits of military policing are probably small and not worth the costs.
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Drawing on elements from the process-based model of policing, intersectionality, critical race perspectives, and comparative conflict theory, the study explores the pathways by which racial and ethnic identity influence self-regulating beliefs among justice-involved individuals. Given that people of color within this group are acutely aware of criminal justice system oppression and inequalities and have likely internalized negative expectations as part of their identity, we consider whether procedural justice perceptions of the police and courts mediate the relationship between racial and ethnic identity and obedience to the law. Relying upon data from a sample of men and women incarcerated in Florida, the findings reveal a negative, indirect relationship between race and self-regulating beliefs, such that Black individuals perceive the police as less procedurally just, which spills over onto perceptions of court procedural justice, and ultimately decreases the willingness to obey. A similar relationship is not found for Hispanic individuals.
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Purpose Microgeographic approaches have received little attention in fear of crime research. Based on growing evidence of large street-to-street variation in crime, disorder, and social integration factors, all of which are known to affect fear, even within the same community, this study aims to examine how street characteristics affect residents' fear of crime. Method Taking advantage of unique longitudinal data that include surveys, physical observations, systematic social observations, and official crime statistics on 447 street segments in Baltimore, MD, this study used three-level multilevel analyses to examine the impacts of street characteristics on residents' fear while controlling for individual- and community-level covariates. Results The results indicate that street-level social disorder and crime, rather than physical disorder, increase residents' fear of crime. In contrast, street-level social integration factors do not have direct impacts on fear, but concentrated disadvantage and low collective efficacy at the street-level might indirectly increase fear via higher levels of social disorder or crime. Conclusions Street-level interventions focusing on crime and social disorder, rather than physical disorder, can be effective in reducing residents' fear of crime. In turn, we encourage future research on fear of crime to give more attention to microgeographic approaches to better understand contextual predictors.
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Criminological theories can and should assist in criminal prevention. They cannot therefore seem irrelevant to those charged with dealing with the ills of crime daily. Thus, the objective of this work is to present the dialogue maintained between the various criminological currents of ecological orientation, which dedicate important space between their theoretical formulations to the role of criminal justice system organizations in crime prevention and control, starting from the academic movement inaugurated by the Chicago School in the first half of the last century. The findings listed allow the formulation of a nuclear recommendation for 21st Century policing: the more focused and specific police strategies are, the more adjusted to the problems they intend to address, the greater their efficiency in preventing and controlling crime.
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This article investigates a particular moment of political tension and intimidation of sub-Saharan migrants in Northern Morocco. Drawing on insights gained from collective fieldwork in Tangier, as well as from individual, longstanding ethnographic engagements with migrants from Guinea-Bissau and Mali, it describes the way West African migrants are policed, used as political capital and made the unwilling pawns of large-scale geopolitical negotiations. Targeted and intimidated as part of a diplomatic performance related to the bilateral dealings between Morocco and the European Union, their hardship is orchestrated to communicate the Moroccan state’s control of migration flows into the EU. The article clarifies the existential and social consequences of such staged persecution among migrants and elucidates how it is made sense of and managed through vernacular notions of ‘heat’, a metaphor for nonviable existence. As we shall see, such metaphors provide a window to a larger ‘social thermological’ register prevalent in making sense of precarious circumstance in both social life, social science and politics.
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Significance Our study is a randomized trial in policing confirming that intensive training in procedural justice (PJ) can lead to more procedurally just behavior and less disrespectful treatment of people at high-crime places. The fact that the PJ intervention reduced arrests by police officers, positively influenced residents’ perceptions of police harassment and violence, and also reduced crime provides important guidance for police reform in a period of strong criticism of policing. This randomized trial points to the potential for PJ training not simply to encourage fair and respectful policing but also to improve evaluations of the police and crime prevention effectiveness.
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The manuscript provides a conceptual argument for the importance of understanding victim decision-making in responding to cases of domestic abuse. It applies core elements of decision-making theory to illustrate how victims may undergo different forms of thinking, could be affected by bias, consider gain and loss differently, and suffer from decision inertia. Suggestions are provided on how this perspective could be used in practice to deliver a victim empowerment approach in policing. However, the article also expresses the importance of the theory's limitations, especially around external validity, and suggests that research across various disciplines is critical to determine whether the perspective could be placed onto an empirical footing.
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A growing debate in several European fora is paving the way for future rules for Artificial Intelligence (AI). A principles-based approach prevails, with various lists of principles drawn up in recent years. These lists, which are often built on human rights, are only a starting point for a future regulation. It is now necessary to move forward, turning abstract principles into a context-based response to the challenges of AI. This article therefore places the principles and operational rules of the current European and international human rights framework in the context of AI applications in two core, and little explored, areas of digital transformation: electronic democracy and digital justice. Several binding and non-binding legal instruments are available for each of these areas, but they were adopted in a pre-AI era, which affects their effectiveness in providing an adequate and specific response to the challenges of AI. Although the existing guiding principles remain valid, their application should therefore be reconsidered in the light of the social and technical changes induced by AI. To contribute to the ongoing debate on future AI regulation, this article outlines a contextualised application of the principles governing e-democracy and digital justice in view of current and future AI applications.
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This article aims to map the use of technologies by the local police in Belgium. It presents the results of a survey filled out by representatives of 86 (out of 113, hence 76,1%) local police forces in Flanders and Brussels. In addition to general questions about the use of 43 different types of technology, the survey also asked more specific questions about the use of one particular mobile information technology, ‘Focus@GPI’, that is currently being implemented across the Belgian police. The results confirm broad use of many new technologies, including the Focus app. They also show significant variation among local police forces in the use of technology in general as well as of the Focus app specifically. The article concludes with some reflections about the impact of the growing use of these technologies on daily police work.
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There are multiple geographical crime prediction techniques to use and comparing different prediction techniques therefore becomes important. In the current study we compared the accuracy (Predictive Accuracy Index) and precision (Recapture Rate Index) of simply counting crimes: Simple Count with Kernel Density Estimation in the prediction of where people are reported to commit violent crimes (assault and robbery) and property crimes (residential burglary, property damage, theft, vehicle theft and arson), geographically. These predictions were done using a different number of years into the future and based on a different number of years combined to do the crime prediction, in a large Swedish municipality. The Simple Count technique performed quite well in comparison to simple Kernel Density Estimation no matter what crime was being predicted, making us conclude that it may not be necessary to use the more complex method of Kernel Density Estimation to predict where people are reported to commit crime geographically.
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Latin America has been labeled as one of the most violent regions on Earth. With only 8% of the planet’s population, the region is the site of 33% of the world’s homicides. These homicides are mostly concentrated in four countries: Brazil, Colombia, México, and Venezuela. The main objective of the chapter is to present a general overview of the problem of gun trafficking in Latin America and its relation to violence. More concretely, it aims to examine the relationship between violence and arms availability among civilians in Latin America. The article is divided into three main parts. The first section examines the background to the security challenge in the region. The second presents the most important security challenges and examines key lessons learnt from these challenges. The final section offers three specific policy recommendations to address gun trafficking and violence in Latin America. Overall, the chapter contributes to the research fields of violence, criminality, and security in the region and calls for further comparative and empirical research that might address the main questions around the complex relationship between violence and small arms in Latin America.
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Observational evidence suggests that better ambient lighting leads people to feel safer when spending time outdoors in their community. We subject this finding to greater scrutiny and elaborate on the extent to which improvements in street lighting affect routine activities during nighttime hours. We report evidence from a survey experiment that examines individuals’ perceptions of safety under two different intensities of nighttime ambient lighting. Brighter street lighting leads individuals to feel safer and over half of survey respondents are willing to pay an additional $400 per year in taxes in order to finance a hypothetical program which would replace dim yellow street lights with brighter LED lights. However, poor lighting does not change people’s willingness to spend time outdoors or to engage in behaviors which mitigate risk. Results suggest that street lighting is a means through which policymakers can both control crime and improve community well-being.
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The extensive impact of gang-related harms on communities has led to a broad range of stakeholders investing in attempts to respond to gangs. Resultantly, many gang definitions, typologies, and explanations have been developed and adopted. This uncoordinated multiplicity has presented significant difficulties for developing shared understandings and responses to gangs across relevant parties. To overcome such pitfalls, researchers have begun to pursue a framework of unificationism through the establishment of consensus definitions of gangs, cross-disciplinary research teams, and unified theories for gang occurrences. Drawing upon insights from other disciplines, we argue against the adoption of an overarching unificationist framework instead endorsing a pluralistic approach to gang research. We develop a novel framework – The Conceptual Framework for Gang Research – for guiding the coordinated construction/adoption of a multiplicity of conceptual tools specifically tailored to facilitate the diverse aims of gang researchers and demonstrate the utility of this approach over current conventional approaches.
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Law enforcement and policing strategies have traditionally been the approaches used to combat gun violence in America. This chapter provides a historical overview and the evidence base supporting such measures, as well as some of the limitations and negative consequences of this approach.
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The Law of Crime Concentration states that a small percent of microplaces will account for large portions of crime. In this research, we demonstrate that police use of force incidents likewise occur at a small percentage of subway stations in Philadelphia, a category of ‘risky facilities’, where crime concentration is also expected. Those percentages mimic the bandwidths of the Law of Crime Concentration. We sketch pertinent data collection needs and future research questions that should be explored if a crime and place perspective is to play a role in understanding and informing policies geared toward reducing the extent to which police use force against the public.
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This article examines the determinants of citizen satisfaction with police. Using data from a recent nationwide survey of Whites, Hispanics, and African Americans, the authors test several hypotheses about how situational and structural factors shape attitudes toward the police. Much has been written about Black-White differences in views of the police, but most of this literature does little to explain why these differences exist. Moreover, very little is known about Hispanics’ relations with the police. We take a step toward closing this gap by developing a model of relations between police and minority-group members that focuses on such explanatory factors as personal contacts with officers, neighborhood crime conditions, and policing practices in accounting for variations in satisfaction with police.
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The authors review research on police effectiveness in reducing crime, disorder, and fear in the context of a typology of innovation in police practices. That typology emphasizes two dimensions: one concerning the diversity of approaches, and the other, the level of focus. The authors find that little evidence supports the standard model of policing—low on both of these dimensions. In contrast, research evidence does support continued investment in police innovations that call for greater focus and tailoring of police efforts, combined with an expansion of the tool box of policing beyond simple law enforcement. The strongest evidence of police effectiveness in reducing crime and disorder is found in the case of geographically focused police practices, such as hot-spots policing. Community policing practices are found to reduce fear of crime, but the authors do not find consistent evidence that community policing (when it is implemented without models of problem-oriented policing) affects either crime or disorder. A developing body of evidence points to the effectiveness of problemoriented policing in reducing crime, disorder, and fear. More generally, the authors find that many policing practices applied broadly throughout the United States either have not been the subject of systematic research or have been examined in the context of research designs that do not allow practitioners or policy makers to draw very strong conclusions.
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This paper reports the results of a randomized experimental evaluation of an innovative drug enforcement strategy developed as part of the Drug Market Analysis Program. Using computer mapping techniques, we identified 56 “hot spots” of drug activity that were randomized in statistical blocks to experimental and control conditions. The experimental strategy followed a stepwise approach that sought to engage business owners and citizens in crime control efforts, to apply pressure to reduce drug and drug-related activity through police crackdowns, and to initiate a maintenance program with the assistance of the patrol division of the department. In line with tactics employed by street-level narcotics units in many other American cities, the control strategy involved unsystematic arrest-oriented narcotics enforcement based on ad hoc target selection. Comparing seven-month pre- and post-intervention periods, we find consistent and strong effects of the experimental strategy on disorder-related emergency calls for service. We also find little evidence of displacement of the crime control benefits of the study to areas near the experimental hot spots. Indeed, through two separate methods, our data suggest a “diffusion of benefits” around the experimental as compared with control locations.
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In this paper we present a "routine activity approach" for analyzing crime rate trends and cycles. Rather than emphasizing the characteristics of offenders, with this approach we concentrate upon the circumstances in which they carry out predatory criminal acts. Most criminal acts require convergence in space and time of likely offenders, suitable targets and the absence of capable guardians against crime. Human ecological theory facilitates an investigation into the way in which social structure produces this convergence, hence allowing illegal activities to feed upon the legal activities of everyday life. In particular, we hypothesize that the dispersion of activities away from households and families increases the opportunity for crime and thus generates higher crime rates. A variety of data is presented in support of the hypothesis, which helps explain crime rate trends in the United States 1947-1974 as a byproduct of changes in such variables as labor force participation and single-adult households.
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We tested the block-level deterrent effects on crime of uniformed police raids of crack houses. Court-authorized raids were legally possible on 207 blocks with at least five calls for police service in the preceding 30 days. Raids were assigned randomly to 104 locations and were conducted at 98 of those sites; the other 109 were left alone. Experimental blocks, in relation to controls, showed reductions in both calls for service and offense reports, but effects were quite small and decayed in two weeks. Raids in which arrests were made (23 of 104 assigned) had no consistently different impact from raids in which no arrests were made. Raids had more effect on calls for service in the winter than in the spring, but we found little seasonal or period difference in effects of raids on offense reports. Alternative police methods may be far more cost-effective than raids in “harm reduction” for crack houses.
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Many criminologists doubt that the dosage of uniformed police patrol causes any measurable difference in crime. This article reports a one-year randomized trial in Minneapolis of increases in patrol dosage at 55 of 110 crime “hot spots,” monitored by 7,542 hours of systematic observations. The experimental group received, on average, twice as much observed patrol presence, although the ratio displayed wide seasonal fluctuation. Reductions in total crime calls ranged from 6 percent to 13 percent. Observed disorder was only half as prevalent in experimental as in control hot spots. We conclude that substantial increases in police patrol presence can indeed cause modest reductions in crime and more impressive reductions in disorder within high crime locations.
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Inter-organizational partnerships are widely praised as a vehicle for planning and implementing complex, comprehensive com-munity interventions. This article explores conceptual, design, and measurement issues relevant to the evaluation of coalitions, with par-ticular reference to anti-crime initiatives. A general theory of partner-ships is outlined that goes beyond organizational models to focus on the complexity of intervention strategies: domains of influence, causal mechanisms, intervention targets, and partnership services. To fill a large gap in our knowledge of coalition effectiveness, impact evalua-tions should include a mixture of strong research designs with counter-factuals, a theory (or multiple theories) of change, a blend of quantita-tive and qualitative methods, measurement and analysis at multiple levels, and multiple case studies for understanding the dynamics and external relationships of each partnership. The primary substantive issue for public safety partnerships is the failure to be inclusive, thus undermining their greatest strength. Finding the proper role for "the community" has been a continuous challenge as law enforcement agencies and strategies tend to be overrepresented. In the endless search for more efficient and effective methods of crime prevention, criminal justice scholars in Western Europe, North America, and Australia have noted the tendency for greater govern-ment investment in "partnerships" and "coalitions." (e.g., Crawford, Crime Prevention Studies, volume 14, pp.171-225.
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The present study examined whether variations in social ecological conditions in New York City police precincts and divisions have predicted patterns of police misconduct from 1975 to 1996. The study included misconduct cases involving bribery, extortion, excessive force, and other abuses of police authority, as well as certain administrative rule violations. Using a longitudinal framework, the analyses found that dimensions of structural disadvantage and population mobility— drawn from the social disorganization literature—as well as changes in Latino population—drawn from the racial conflict perspective— explained changes in police misconduct over time. Further, most of the variations occurred within, as opposed to between, precincts and divisions over time, strengthening the case for a longitudinal examination.
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Considers that intuitive predictions follow a judgmental heuristic-representativeness. By this heuristic, people predict the outcome that appears most representative of the evidence. Consequently, intuitive predictions are insensitive to the reliability of the evidence or to the prior probability of the outcome, in violation of the logic of statistical prediction. The hypothesis that people predict by representativeness was supported in a series of studies with both naive and sophisticated university students (N = 871). The ranking of outcomes by likelihood coincided with the ranking by representativeness, and Ss erroneously predicted rare events and extreme values if these happened to be representative. The experience of unjustified confidence in predictions and the prevalence of fallacious intuitions concerning statistical regression are traced to the representativeness heuristic.
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In recent years, researchers have argued that police actions should be focused on high-risk crime places rather than spread thinly across the urban landscape. This review examines the available evaluation evidence on the effects of concentrating police enforcement efforts on crime hot spots. Five randomized experiments and four nonequivalent control group quasi-experiments were identified. The findings of these evaluations suggest that focused police actions can prevent crime and disorder in crime hot spots. These studies also suggest that focused police actions at specific locations do not necessarily result in crime displacement. Unintended crime prevention benefits were also associated with the hot spots policing programs. Although these evaluations reveal that these programs work in preventing crime, additional research is needed to unravel other important policy-relevant issues such as community reaction to focused police enforcement efforts.
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This article examines the character and consequences of encounters between police and residents of the city of Chicago. It describes the frequency with which they contacted the police for assistance or support and how often they were stopped by them. Follow-up questions gathered information about the character of those contacts. The analysis contrasts the effects of experiential, on-scene factors with those of race, age, gender, and language on satisfac- tion with encounters. It demonstrates the great importance of the quality of routine police-citizen encounters, for things that officers did on the spot dom- inated in determining satisfaction. The personal characteristics of city resi- dents played an important role in shaping who was treated in this way or that and affected satisfaction primarily through on-scene actions by police. This article examines the character and consequences of encounters between police and residents of the city of Chicago. Although there are many determinants of people's attitudes and assessments of policing, none is more important for policy than the quality of service being rendered. Through their training and supervision practices, departments have the capacity to shape the relationship between residents and officers working the street. Whether police are polite or abrasive, concerned or aloof, or help- ful or unresponsive to the obvious needs of the people they encounter depends importantly on actions taken by department leaders.
Article
Using observational data collected as part of a one-year preventive patrol study in Minneapolis, this investigation employs survival models to test hypotheses about the effects of specific instances of police patrol presence at high-crime locations on the time until the next occurrence of criminal or disorderly behavior at these locations. The results show that patrol stops must reach a threshold dosage of about 10 minutes in order to generate significantly longer survival times without disorder — i.e., greater residual deterrence — than that generated by driving through a hot spot. The optimal length for patrol stops appears to be 11 to 15 minutes. After that point, continued police presence brings diminishing returns. The theoretical and policy implications of these results are discussed.
Article
Public trust and confidence in the police is generally low, with minority group members especially mistrustful of the police. This study uses a sample of New Yorkers to examine, first, whether trust is related to public willingness to cooperate with the police. The results suggest that it is. Second, this study examines the relationship of police policies and practices to trust in the police. The study finds that trust is most strongly influenced by public judgments about the fairness of the procedures that the police follow when exercising their authority. These process-based judgments are more influential than are either assessments of the effectiveness of police crime-control activities or judgments about the fairness of the police distribution of services. These findings support the process-based model of regulation.
Article
Propositions endemic to labeling theory, and variables particularly relevant to these propositions, are combined into a guiding paradigm. Components of this labeling paradigm are then tested in an experimentally controlled police diversion project in which juvenile offenders of mid-range seriousness are randomly assigned to release, community treatment, and court petition conditions. Results provide support for some labeling propositions but not others, and are seen as specifying some of the variables that delimit the policy implications of labeling theory.
Article
We tested the hypothesis that greater enforcement of existing laws against carrying concealed weapons could reduce firearms violence with a quasi-experimental, target beat/comparison beat design. Over a six-month period in a ten-by-eight-block area with a homicide rate 20 times higher than the national average, intensive patrol near gun crime hot spots produced a 65 percent increase in firearms seized by police. Gun crimes declined in the target area by 49 percent, with no significant displacement to any patrol beat surrounding the target area. Neither gun crimes nor guns seized changed significantly in the comparison beat several miles away.
Article
Over the past decade, problem-oriented policing has become a central strategy for policing. In a number of studies, problem-oriented policing has been found to be effective in reducing crime and disorder. However, very little is known about the value of problem-oriented interventions in controlling violent street crime. The National Academy of Sciences' Panel on the Understanding and Control of Violent Behavior suggests that sustained research on problem-oriented policing initiatives that modify places, routine activities, and situations that promote violence could contribute much to the understanding and control of violence. This study evaluates the effects of problem-oriented policing interventions on urban violent crime problems in Jersey City, New Jersey. Twenty-four high-activity, violent crime places were matched into 12 pairs and one member of each pair was allocated to treatment conditions in a randomized block field experiment. The results of the impact evaluation support the growing body of research that asserts focused police efforts can reduce crime and disorder at problem places without causing crime problems to displace to surrounding areas.
Article
A leading sociological theory of crime is the “routine activities” approach (Cohen and Felson, 1979). The premise of this ecological theory is that criminal events result from likely offenders, suitable targets, and the absence of capable guardians against crime converging nonrandomly in time and space. Yet prior research has been unable to employ spatial data, relying instead on individual- and household-level data, to test that basic premise. This analysis supports the premise with spatial data on 323,979 calls to police over all 115,000 addresses and intersections in Minneapolis over 1 year. Relatively few “hot spots” produce most calls to Police (50% of calls in 3% of places) and calls reporting predatory crimes (all robberies at 2.2% of places, all rapes at 1.2% of places, and all auto thefts at 2.7% of places), because crime is both rare (only 3.6% of the city could have had a robbery with no repeat addresses) and concentrated, although the magnitude of concentration varies by offense type. These distributions all deviate significantly, and with ample magnitude, from the simple Poisson model of chance, which raises basic questions about the criminogenic nature of places, as distinct from neighborhoods or collectivities.
Article
It is hypothesized that collective efficacy, defined as social cohesion among neighbors combined with their willingness to intervene on behalf of the common good, is linked to reduced violence. This hypothesis was tested on a 1995 survey of 8782 residents of 343 neighborhoods in Chicago, Illinois. Multilevel analyses showed that a measure of collective efficacy yields a high between-neighborhood reliability and is negatively associated with variations in violence, when individual-level characteristics, measurement error, and prior violence are controlled. Associations of concentrated disadvantage and residential instability with violence are largely mediated by collective efficacy.
Preventing crime: What works
  • L W Sherman
  • D Gottfredson
  • D Mackenzie
  • J Eck
  • P Reuter
  • S Bushway
The social structure of gang homicide in Chicago
  • A V Papachristos
Race and police: A matter of public trust
  • D P Rosenbaum
  • D F Hawkins
  • S K Costello
  • W G Skogan
  • L Roman Rivera
  • C Vera
  • R Rokita
  • M K Ring
  • T Larson
  • M Munansangu
The impact of a criminal history record on access to legitimate employment. Unpublished doctoral dissertation
  • S Bushway