Possibilities of application of FSA methodology to stability of ships

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Recently IMO recommended application of the Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) methodology to the development of safety rules. The main purpose of the paper is to analyse the difficulties that arise with the application of FSA methodology to stability problems and eventually to propose ways to solve some of them. The first two steps in the FSA methodology are identification of hazards and assessment of risk. With regard to intact and damage stability problems hazards that may lead to loss of the ship should be identified. The hazards could be identified on the basis of the analysis of casualty data and of the experts opinions. For the purpose of assessment of probabilities involved various scenarios leading to ship capsizing or foundering have to be analysed. Statistical methods, model tests and mathematical simulation have to be used. Risk, which is the product of probability of the hazard and its consequences has also to be assessed and the main difficulty would be evaluation of consequences. In the paper methods of identification of hazards are discussed and various possibilities to assess the risk involved are considered.

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A systematic method for assessing intact ship stability with a free-running model in a seakeeping and maneuvering basin is proposed in this paper. Model experiments were carried out in extremely steep regular waves for a model drifting, running in head seas, and quartering seas. This method was applied to two purse seiners, and efficiently identified thresholds in metacentric heights for capsizing of these ships. These capsizing thresholds are compared with requirements of the IMO Code on Intact Stability. This series of model experiments also confirms that capsizing at the threshold occurs only in quartering seas, and shows that capsizing is caused by broaching, loss of stability on a wave crest, or bow diving.