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Phoenix from the Ashes —
An Analysis of the Paris Agreement to the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
By Wolfgang Obergassel (né Sterk), Christof Arens, Lukas Hermwille, Nico Kreibich, Florian
Mersmann, Hermann E. Ott, and Hanna Wang-Helmreich
Wuppertal, 22 February 2016
Disclaimer
The views expressed in this paper are strictly those of the authors.
Contact
Wolfgang Obergassel
Email: wolfgang.obergassel@wupperinst.org
Hermann E. Ott
Email: hermann.ott@wupperinst.org
Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy
Döppersberg 19 • 42103 Wuppertal • Germany
www.wupperinst.org
January 2016
© Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy, 2016
Obergassel et al.
Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy
3
Summary
After 25 years of UN climate diplomacy, the world’s governments have for the first time in
history negotiated a treaty that envisages climate action by all countries. Despite all
shortcomings, the Paris Agreement may therefore be labelled a success. It also demonstrates
that environmental multilateralism is not dead. The Parties to the UNFCCC were able to
conclude a treaty under international law, with an innovative legal approach in order to satisfy
the constitutional peculiarities of the USA. The successful outcome of Paris thus restored
some of the confidence in international diplomacy lost over the last decade.
The agreement’s ambition of limiting global warming to “well below 2 °C and to pursue
efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels“ represents a
quantitative increase compared to the previous wording and a re-interpretation of the
Convention’s ultimate purpose: The Convention's objective is to avoid dangerous climate
change; the Paris Agreement now posits that any global warming is dangerous. Furthermore,
countries agreed that the temperature limit is to be reached by, first, a peaking of greenhouse
gas emissions “as soon as possible” and, second, “a balance between anthropogenic emissions
by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of this century”.
This is thus the main message from Paris: The age of fossil fuels is over.
Shortcomings include the lack of legal bindingness as far as national contributions relating to
mitigation, adaptation and finance are concerned. And those contributions that countries have
submitted fall far short of the stipulated global ambition: Even if fully implemented, global
mean temperature would most likely still increase in the range of 2.7 °C to 3.5 °C. This is a
serious shortfall and action to strengthen those contributions especially by large emitters must
start already in 2018 in order to keep the world on a path that is considered safe for humanity.
But international negotiations can rarely take decisions that have not previously been prepared
nationally. The role the international climate process can play at the moment is to serve as a
catalyst for national developments by keeping the issue on the agenda and forcing national
policy makers to continuously revisit it. The question is therefore not whether the Paris
Agreement will deliver the emission reductions necessary, but whether the agreement has the
potential to catalyse further changes, whether it becomes a pacemaker for policy processes –
at the international level and in the capitals of the world. From this perspective, the Paris
Agreement is much stronger than many had expected.
Instead of legal sanctions, the Paris Agreement relies on a mechanism of ‚naming and
shaming’ to ensure implementation: it creates a reputational risk through the establishment of
mandatory transparency and review provisions. This innovative review mechanism (“ratchet”)
aims for Parties to enhance their contributions every five years. Starting in 2018, these
“stocktakes” will create moments of concentrated political attention every five years that may
be used for fostering the dynamic of the process.
While there is no legal obligation to strengthen the first round of contributions, they are thus
not necessarily the last word, given the growing awareness of climate change impacts and the
growing dynamics in renewable energy, battery technologies and other solutions, which may
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quickly render previous goals obsolete. Until now, the climate regime had no mechanism to
confront governments with such developments – and to take up these dynamics.
It will be crucial for the success of the regular stocktakings that countries transparently report
the implementation of their contributions, and subject their efforts to review. In this regard,
the agreement defines a “transparency framework”, which has yet to be fleshed out. Apart
from increasing the level of ambition, the details of the transparency framework will be the
most relevant field of work in the coming years.
One reason the Paris Agreement won the support of developing countries was its recognition
of two decade-long demands: First, it elevates the standing of adaptation in the international
climate regime. Crucially, action on adaptation is to be reviewed and accelerated every five
years in parallel to the contribution cycles for mitigation. However, while the need for
substantial adaptation finance has been recognized in the Paris Agreement, it does not include
a collective, quantified goal for adaptation finance.
And second, the Paris Agreement recognises that there are adverse climate impacts that
cannot be adapted to – and that they must be dealt with. This was a crunch issue until the very
end, because while developing countries wanted the concept of ‘Loss and Damage’ to be
included in the final agreement text, developed countries feared it could be used for
compensation and liability claims. The final outcome gives consideration to both positions:
while the Paris Agreement features an article on loss and damage, the decision text contains a
clause that excludes the concept to be used as a basis for compensation and liability claims.
The finance part of the Paris Agreement is weak. It does not contain any compulsory language
to scale up climate finance. Only the accompanying decision text reiterates that the goal of
mobilising an annual USD 100 billion of North-South financial flows in 2020 and beyond,
promised already in Copenhagen, is still valid. Furthermore, Parties agreed to set a new,
collective financing target by 2025. In this context, the USD 100 billion figure is now
considered the floor of financial contributions – rather than the ceiling as before Paris.
The adoption of the Paris Agreement is not the end, but the beginning of a process. Its
effectiveness depends on whether the momentum of Paris can be turned into a political force.
This momentum was to a large extent created by the “high ambition coalition” of small island
states, least developed countries and the EU. It ultimately even included traditional blockers
such as Japan and the USA and was one of the main drivers of an outcome at the upper end of
what seemed politically possible. Keeping this coalition alive, at least in its core, would help
to work towards a progressive implementation and evolution of global climate policy, both
inside and outside of the UNFCCC regime. Global climate diplomacy requires such a driver,
as numerous occasions in the past have shown. The EU should not let this opportunity fade
away and strengthen ties with those countries originally forming this group. This coalition
would be in a position to push for the agreement’s early entry into force and for the quick
strengthening of national contributions.
Obergassel et al.
Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy
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Table of Contents
Summary .................................................................................................................................. 3
1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 7
2 Tracing The Paris Outcome ............................................................................................... 8
2.1 Negotiation Dynamics ................................................................................................. 8
2.1.1 Overcoming Static Differentiation ......................................................................... 8
2.1.2 A Climate Diplomacy Masterpiece ...................................................................... 10
2.2 Legal Form – Treaty or Not? ..................................................................................... 12
2.3 Purpose of the Agreement ........................................................................................ 14
2.4 Individual Efforts ........................................................................................................ 15
2.5 Mitigation ................................................................................................................... 17
2.5.1 Ambition .............................................................................................................. 17
2.5.2 Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) ...... 19
2.5.3 Aviation and Shipping ......................................................................................... 20
2.5.4 Cooperative Mechanisms ................................................................................... 21
2.6 Adaptation ................................................................................................................. 22
2.7 Loss and Damage ..................................................................................................... 27
2.8 Means of Implementation .......................................................................................... 28
2.8.1 Finance ............................................................................................................... 29
2.8.2 Technology ......................................................................................................... 31
2.8.3 Capacity Building ................................................................................................ 32
2.9 Three Elements for Increasing Ambition over Time .................................................. 33
2.9.1 Global Stocktake and Contribution Cycle ........................................................... 33
2.9.2 Transparency Framework ................................................................................... 34
2.9.3 Facilitative Compliance Mechanism ................................................................... 36
2.10 Increasing Short-term Ambition ............................................................................... 36
2.10.1 Technical Examination Processes .................................................................... 36
2.10.2 Lima - Paris Action Agenda .............................................................................. 38
3 Assessment: The Stage Is Set, Waiting for More Action .................................................. 39
3.1 Assessing the Paris Outcome: The Benchmark for Success .................................... 39
3.2 Differentiation: An Agreement Applicable to All ......................................................... 41
3.3 Ambitious Global Targets: Towards Decarbonisation? ............................................. 42
3.4 National Contributions: Insufficient and Non-Binding ................................................ 43
3.5 Ratchet Mechanism: A Political Pacemaker to Strengthen Ambition ........................ 44
3.6 Transparency: Fine Print to Be Drafted ..................................................................... 46
3.7 Promoting a Long-Term Perspective: New Horizons ................................................ 47
3.8 Finance: Vague Language ........................................................................................ 47
3.9 REDD+: What Future Role? ...................................................................................... 48
3.10 International Cooperative Approaches: What Basis for Market Mechanisms? ....... 49
3.11 Loss and Damage: A New Pillar of Climate Policy .................................................. 49
3.12 Adaptation: Strengthened Role ............................................................................... 49
4 Outlook: Next Steps on a Long Journey towards Decarbonisation .................................. 50
4.1 The Return of Environmental Multilateralism ............................................................ 50
4.2 Cultivating Coalitions ................................................................................................. 51
4.3 What Role for Non-Party Actors? .............................................................................. 52
4.4 The Paris Agreement is not the End but the Beginning ............................................ 53
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List of Abbrevations
ADP Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action
AILAC Independent Association of Latin America and the Caribbean
CBDR-RC Principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities
CDM Clean Development Mechanism
CERs Certified Emission Reductions
CfRN Coalition of Rainforest Nations
CMA Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris
Agreement
COP Conference of the Parties
CO2 Carbon dioxide
CTCN Climate Technology Centre and Network
DOEs Designated Operational Entities
EU European Union
G7 Group of Seven
G20 Group of Twenty
GHG Greenhouse gas
ICAO International Civil Aviation Organization
IEA International Energy Agency
IMO International Maritime Organization
INDCs Intended Nationally Determined Contributions
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
IPRs Intellectual property rights
JMA Joint Mitigation and Adaptation Mechanism
LAKI Lima Adaptation Knowledge Initiative
LDCs Least Developed Countries
LEG Least Developed Countries Expert Group
LMDCs Group of Like-Minded Developing Countries
LPAA Lima-Paris Action Agenda
NAPs National adaptation plans
NAZCA Non-State Actor Zone for Climate Action
NGOs Non-governmental organization
NWP Nairobi Work Programme
OECD Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development
OECD-DAC The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development's Development
Assistance Committee
REDD+ Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation and the role of
conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest
carbon stocks in developing countries.
SBs Subsidiary Bodies
SBI Subsidiary Body for Implementation
SBSTA Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice
SCF Standing Committee on Finance
SIDS Small Island Developing States
TEC Technology Executive Committee
TEP Technical Examination Process
TNA Technology Needs Assessments
UK United Kingdom
UN United Nations
UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
USA United States of America
USD US Dollar
WIM Warsaw International Mechanism on Loss and Damage associated with Climate
Change Impacts
WS2 Workstream 2
Obergassel et al.
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1 Introduction
On 12 December 2015, the 21st Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) adopted the “Paris Agreement”. Paris thus finally
concluded the long process of crafting a new international climate regime that began with the
adoption of the Bali Roadmap in 2007, failed spectacularly in Copenhagen 2009, and resumed
with a new approach in Durban 2011. The conference in Paris concluded this process, as de-
manded in the Durban Platform, with the adoption of a treaty under international law that rep-
resents the first really collective effort by the world community to tackle climate change.
Global political conditions at first sight did not seem to be particularly favourable for major
advancements in environmental multilateralism. While Copenhagen had been overshadowed
by the global financial crisis, in 2015, the world’s attention was riveted to the conflict be-
tween Russia and the Ukraine, the wars in the Middle East and the resulting mass refugee
movement, and to the rise of Islamic terrorism. The conference’s host city itself had been
shaken to the core by a terrorist attack taking more than one hundred lives two weeks before
the conference’s start.
The political atmosphere of the climate negotiations going into the conference was, however,
much more positive than in Copenhagen 2009. Of course, the negotiating text was still heavi-
ly bracketed, denoting areas of disagreement, and Parties were still rehashing the 25-year old
arguments about who should contribute how much to the fight against climate change. But on
the positive side, the negotiating text was much shorter than the text that had been on the table
at the beginning of the Copenhagen conference. The workload was also much lighter than it
had been in 2009. Copenhagen had had the task of forging an entirely new regime in all as-
pects, not only mitigation, but also adaptation, finance, technology and capacity building.
Much of this work had been completed since 2010, with the creation of a raft of new institu-
tions: the Green Climate Fund, the Adaptation Committee, the Technology Executive Com-
mittee and the Clean Technology Centre and Network.
Perhaps most importantly, the two traditional main antagonists, China and the United States
of America (USA), had largely reconciled their differences in November 2014 already, with a
highest-level announcement by the two presidents. Not only the traditionally progressive
countries but also US diplomacy went into high gear to pave the way for the new agreement,
with President Obama having defined climate policy as a legacy issue. This Sino-US rap-
prochement was supported by a host of multilateral efforts, peaking in September 2015 when
United Nations (UN) Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon invited Heads of State and Government
to a climate summit. On this occasion, civil society in the US staged the largest-ever climate
demonstration, when more than 300.000 people gathered in New York to demand stronger
climate action. This positive momentum was taken up and strengthened on the opening day of
the conference by the attendance of 150 heads of state and government.
There was therefore much confidence that there would be some agreement in Paris. The ques-
tion was whether it would be an agreement at the lowest common denominator or an agree-
ment with actual impact. As environmental NGOs framed it: the choice was between an
agreement that would limit the increase of global mean temperature to 1.5 °C compared to
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pre-industrial levels or one that would take us to a world with an increase of 3 °C or more. In
the end, the Paris Agreement leaves it open: The almost 200 countries assembled in Paris set-
tled for a deal that offers the chance to keep global temperature rise at a level that does not
endanger our civilisation – but only if the national and sub-national activities are swiftly and
decisively strengthened and put into effect.
2 Tracing The Paris Outcome
2.1 Negotiation Dynamics
2.1.1 Overcoming Static Differentiation
While the Durban Platform contains a mandate to negotiate a new climate agreement “appli-
cable to all”, the negotiations under the Durban Platform continued to be as dominated by
disagreements over the respective roles of the so-called “industrialised” and “developing”
countries as they have always been. The traditional industrialised countries (listed in Annex I
of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change) have been keen to break down the so-
called “firewall”, the clear distinction between Annex I and non-Annex I countries (tradition-
ally “developing countries”) that is laid down in the Framework Convention of 1992. While
the Convention and its Kyoto Protocol have imposed obligations on Annex I countries, no
such obligations have so far existed for non-Annex I countries. Annex I (industrialised) coun-
tries argued that this distinction was outdated since many non-Annex I (developing) countries
were nowadays wealthier than many of the traditional industrialised countries and their con-
tribution to global emissions had also grown rapidly.
By contrast, in particular the group of like-minded developing countries (LMDCs)1 strongly
resisted any explicit or implicit dissolution of the traditional distinction between the Annexes.
They maintained that Annex I countries should continue to take the lead since they are the
ones who caused the climate problem, even nowadays have much larger economic resources
to do something about it, and have in the view of the LMDCs so far mostly failed to meet
their previous commitments in terms of reducing their own emissions and in providing sup-
port to non-Annex I countries. However, the configuration of negotiation groups changed
significantly over the last five years, with the G77 and China, the traditional coalition of most
developing countries, losing much of its former coherence. Within this group, the countries
most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, the small island developing states (SIDS)
and the least developed countries (LDCs), increasingly demanded strong mitigation action by
all large emitters, be they from early countries or newly industrialised countries. Further dif-
ferentiation was marked by the formation of the Independent Association of Latin America
and the Caribbean (AILAC), a group of progressive countries that posited that all countries
should contribute strongly to fighting climate change.
1 The group of like-minded developing countries includes China, India, and other Asian countries such as
Malaysia, countries in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries such as Saudi Arabia, and some
Latin American countries such as Bolivia and Venezuela
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The negotiations were also strongly complicated by the inability of the USA to ratify any le-
gally binding climate agreement under the constitution and the current configuration of na-
tional political realities. In the run-up to Paris, the US Republican Party made its opposition to
any climate action clearer than ever before. The line had historically been that the USA
should not commit to climate action unless its main competitors, in particular China, also
committed. The Obama administration undercut this line of reasoning with a series of high-
level initiatives demonstrating that China and others were in fact willing to step up their ef-
forts. The US Republicans reacted by publicly declaring that US participation in the new cli-
mate agreement was not going to be reliable as they would do whatever they could to under-
mine any action the Obama administration was going to take.2 The Durban Platform negotia-
tions were thus strongly dominated by the US administration’s desire to shape an agreement
that would not require ratification by Congress. This entailed in particular avoiding adoption
of any legally binding commitments.
The main breakthrough to overcome this series of obstacles was arguably already made at the
2013 conference in Warsaw, which created the concept of Intended Nationally Determined
Contributions (INDCs). Using the term “contributions” instead of “commitments” accommo-
dated the position of the LMDCs that there should be no binding commitments for non-Annex
I countries – as well as the US desire to avoid commitments. On the other side, Annex I coun-
tries prevented creating any differentiation between themselves and non-Annex I countries
regarding the legal nature of participation in the new agreement; instead of differentiated pro-
visions as demanded by the LMDCs, the Warsaw decision contained only one set of provi-
sions applying to all countries.3 The world community therefore settled on a lower common
denominator in the endeavour to establish common national activities for all countries.
In contrast to Copenhagen, the basic shape of the Paris Agreement had therefore been defined
well in advance of the crucial conference. There was thus increasing optimism that Paris
would not become another Copenhagen. But the question was whether the new agreement
was going to be worth the paper. Up until the second to last version of the new agreement
submitted by the French presidency, the options for the outcome ranged from high ambition
to near-meaningless.
Adoption of the more ambitious end of the range was helped along by the re-formation of the
Durban coalition of the European Union (EU), LDCs, SIDS and other progressive countries
that had secured the adoption of the Durban Platform. The “high ambition coalition” was ini-
tiated by the Marshall Islands and had been in the works for half a year before entering the
limelight in the middle of the second week. This time it became even more broad-based than
in Durban, ultimately effectively taking in all major groups except the LMDCs. The main
goals of the “ambition coalition” were to achieve a legally binding agreement, an ambitious
2 GOP to attack climate pact at home and abroad, http://www.politico.com/story/2015/09/gop-congress-climate-
pact-paris-213382
3 Sterk, W., C. Arens, N. Kreibich, L. Hermwille, F. Mersmann, T. Wehnert (2013): Warsaw Groundhog Days –
Old Friends, Positions and Impasses Revisited All Over Again at the 2013 Warsaw Climate Conference.
Wuppertal: Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy.
http://wupperinst.org/en/info/details/wi/a/s/ad/2447/
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long-term goal, five-year cycles to review and strengthen countries’ contributions, and strong
transparency provisions to track countries’ progress in implementing their contributions.4
What tilted the balance in favour of a comparatively ambitious agreement was apparently in
particular Brazil’s joining of the ambition coalition. Brazil had in recent years usually been
aligned with China and India, who were opposing the ambition coalition’s demands on the
long-term goal, five-year cycles and transparency. Brazil’s break with its usual allies was re-
portedly a game changer that gave the French presidency room to keep pushing for an ambi-
tious outcome.5
The way to agreement was also paved by the strong alignment of the China and the US, which
had been crucial in shaping the basic contours of the deal. How close the rapprochement of
the traditional antagonists had become was highlighted in the final hours of the conference,
when the USA sought to correct a “typo” in the final draft of the agreement, substituting
“should” for “shall” in the sentence “Developed country Parties shall continue taking the lead
by undertaking economy-wide absolute emission reduction targets.” As noted above, the US
was meticulous to ensure that no language would find its way into the agreement that could be
construed as constituting new committments which would require Congressional approval.
This last-minute change might easily have unravelled the entire agreement, and it was report-
edly China who bailed the USA out. Where the “shall” came from appears to be a mystery.6
The sentence echoes Article 3.1 of the UNFCCC, which also has “should.”
2.1.2 A Climate Diplomacy Masterpiece
Maintaining the constructive spirit throughout the fortnight of negotiations was not least the
result of the extraordinary leadership provided by the French Presidency. The French Minister
of Foreign Affairs and International Development, Laurent Fabius and his team, headed by
Climate Change Ambassador Laurence Tubiana, had meticulously studied the failure of Co-
penhagen as well as the much more successful negotiations in Cancún and Durban. Six dip-
lomatic manoeuvres helped to ensure the success of the Paris talks:
• Laying the ground early: Already before the 2014 Conference of the Parties (COP)
in Lima, the French worked together with the Peruvian presidency to organise a series
of ministerial meetings “to get the ministers well-acquainted”.7
• Inviting Heads of States early to kick off the talks: The attendance of Heads of
State and Government at the opening of the talks set the scene for successful negotia-
tions. It raised the stakes but at the same time allowed ministers to engage in the nego-
tiations having the mandate for final submissions. In Copenhagen, negotiations had
4 EU and 79 African, Caribbean and Pacific countries join forces for ambitious global climate deal,
http://ec.europa.eu/clima/news/articles/news_2015120802_en.htm
5 Foie gras, oysters and a climate deal: How the Paris pact was won,
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2015/12/14/foie-gras-oysters-and-a-climate-deal-how-the-paris-pact-
was-won/
6 China rescues US from Paris climate deal ‘typo’ fiasco, http://www.climatechangenews.com/2015/12/12/china-
rescues-us-from-paris-climate-deal-typo-fiasco/
7 IISD Reporting Services (2015): Earth Negotiations Bulletin, Vol. 12, No. 663. Summary of the Paris Climate
Change Conference: 29 November -13 December 2015. Paris: IISD Reporting Services.
http://www.iisd.ca/download/pdf/enb12663e.pdf
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Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy
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entered an impasse because negotiators (and ministers) felt they had no mandate to
make final decisions with their bosses coming in to seal the deal at the end of the ne-
gotiations. And since the Heads of State or Government were not in a position to ne-
gotiate substantive issues, the talks collapsed. This was avoided in Paris and the
weight of Presidents and Prime Ministers turned into a positive force.
• Ensuring participation and transparency: All Parties including LDCs and SIDS
highlighted the inclusive approach of the French presidency. Minister Fabius and his
team relied heavily on the indaba negotiation format which had been successfully em-
ployed by the South African hosts in Durban.8 Indaba is a technique applied by Zulu
and Xhosa peoples in southern Africa. In this format delegates must not repeat their
stated positions but outline their “red lines” and at the same time provide solutions for
common ground, so-called “landing zones”. This approach allowed every Party to
voice its views and positions and at the same time proved to be very effective in iden-
tifying consensus.
• Embracing potential critics: COP President Fabius appointed some of the most vo-
cal critics as facilitators for the different issues, effectively vesting them personally in
finding solutions. For example, Venezuelan Head of Delegation Claudia Salerno, who
had harshly criticised the Copenhagen process, facilitated negotiating the preamble
text of the Paris Agreement. Similarly, Fabius appointed the Bolivian Minister René
Orellana together with his Swedish colleague to facilitate negotiations on loss and
damage, and Brazilian Minister Izabella Texeira to host the consultations on differen-
tiation in the context of mitigation, transparency and finance.
• A ‘no surprise’ policy: The French Presidency maintained a tight yet inclusive
schedule. While in Copenhagen Parties spent almost the entire first week of the COP
fighting over agenda issues, the roadmap of the COP21 negotiation process had been
set well in advance. Also, the French Presidency did not attempt to short-cut the nego-
tiation process by introducing its own negotiation text (as it had been attempted during
the failed conferences in The Hague, 2000, and Copenhagen, 2009). Instead, they en-
gaged ministers in the laborious process of cleaning up the heavily bracketed draft text
that had been prepared by Parties themselves. This effectively created an understand-
ing for collective responsibility for success or failure of the text.9
• Providing an impeccable environment: In contrast to the set-up in Copenhagen, the
Paris talks were superbly organized. Decent food, spacious and a well-organized con-
ference venue played their part in maintaining a positive atmosphere. Also, the unusu-
al scheduling contributed to the success. For example, the talks commenced already
one day early. Also in the decisive moments COP President Fabius did not rush to pre-
sent new text but announced well in advance that new draft negotiation text would be
8 Sterk, W., C. Arens, F. Mersmann, H. Wang-Helmreich, T. Wehnert (2011): On the Road Again. Progressive
Countries Score a Realpolitik Victory in Durban While the Real Climate Continues to Heat Up. Wuppertal:
Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment, Energy. http://wupperinst.org/en/info/details/wi/a/s/ad/1593/
9 IISD Reporting Services (2015): Earth Negotiations Bulletin, Vol. 12, No. 663. Summary of the Paris Climate
Change Conference: 29 November -13 December 2015. Paris: IISD Reporting Services.
http://www.iisd.ca/download/pdf/enb12663e.pdf
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Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy
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distributed only on Saturday morning, allowing everybody to at least get some sleep
before the final consultations began.
And crucially, the French team had an intimate technical knowledge of all the negotiation
issues. This enabled the Presidency to pursue a “high-level equilibrium”, where all negotia-
tion groups had to make concessions, rather than a low-level equilibrium, the lowest common
denominator.10 Due to these factors, the French Presidency was able to reverse the traditional
negotiation script: Typically, in the final hours draft texts tend to be watered down. In Paris,
though, the level of ambition was increased with the final draft that was ultimately agreed.
2.2 Legal Form – Treaty or Not?
The Paris outcome consists of two parts: the Paris Agreement, and the COP decision which
adopts the agreement and sets out steps to taken in the next years until the agreement enters
into force.
The Paris Agreement was the result of a process that had been initiated by the 17th Conference
of the Partis in Durban 2011. There the Parties had decided “to launch a process to develop a
protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed outcome with legal force under the
Convention applicable to all Parties”.11 This formula was a compromise between, on the one
hand, the EU and many developing countries calling for a legally binding treaty and, on the
other hand, the US who was adamant to achieve an outcome that did not need the approval of
the Senate, and China and India who insisted that there should be no new commitments for
developing countries.12
The ‘natural’ legal form of the Paris Agreement would have taken the shape of a protocol like
the Kyoto Protocol, as provided for in Article 17 of the UNFCCC.13 This convention-protocol
construction was the preferred approach developed in the late 20th century for environmental
treaty regimes.14 This, however, would have forced the US Government to submit the
protocol to the Senate for ratification. The Parties in Paris thus chose a legal form that is not
provided for in the UNFCCC because it is neither an amendment to the convention nor a
protocol. This innovative legal approach immediately sparked a discussion in the US whether
the Paris Agreement is a treaty and whether it has to be submitted to the Senate for
ratification.15
10 The Paris Agreement: historic! What’s next? http://www.blog-iddri.org/2015/12/14/the-paris-agreement-
historic-but-whats-next/
11 Decision 1/CP17: Establishment of an Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action,
FCCC /CP/2011/9/Add.1, 15 March 2012.
12 Sterk, W., C. Arens, F. Mersmann, H. Wang-Helmreich, T. Wehnert (2011): On the Road Again. Progressive
Countries Score a Realpolitik Victory in Durban While the Real Climate Continues to Heat Up. Wuppertal:
Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment, Energy. http://wupperinst.org/en/info/details/wi/a/s/ad/1593/
13 As for the history, see Oberthür, S., H. E. Ott (1999): The Kyoto Protocol. International Climate Policy for the
21st Century. Berlin/Heidelberg et al.: Springer Verlag, pp. 239ff.
14 Cf. Ott, H. E. (1998): Umweltregime im Völkerrecht. Eine Untersuchung über neue Formen internationaler
institutionalisierter Kooperation am Beispiel der Verträge zum Schutz der Ozonschicht und zur Kontrolle
grenzüberschreitender Abfallverbringungen. Baden-Baden: Nomos Verlag, pp. 88.
15 Is the Paris Climate Agreement a Treaty? http://beforeitsnews.com/environment/2015/12/is-the-paris-climate-
agreement-a-treaty-2543856.html
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The answer to this question requires a distinction between the international legal system and
the national legal sphere of the United States of America. In public international law, a treaty
is defined as meaning “an international agreement concluded between States in written form
and governed by international law”.16 The Paris Agreement was certainly conluded between
states and in written form, but is it also governed by international law? Since the agreement
was concluded at an international conference “in pursuit of the objectives of the Convention”
and since it uses the bodies and procedures developed in the context of the Convention
(undoubtedly an international treaty) it may safely be concluded that it is governed by
international law. The Paris Agreement is thus a (dependent) treaty under international law. It
is dependent on the UNFCCC because only Parties to the Convention may ratify and because
it cannot stand alone since many clauses refer to the respective procedures and bodies of the
UNFCCC.
Inside the US legal system, the analysis looks different. The executive may conclude
“treaties” and “international agreements other than treaties”. The former need a two-thirds
majority in the Senate for ratification, whereas other international agreements can be enacted
by the US Government alone. The core question is thus whether the Paris Agreement is
considered a “treaty” under US constitutional law. The issue is addressed by the Foreign
Affairs Manual of the US State Department, which provides that a president may conclude
“international agreements other than treaties” in three cases, e.g., pursuant to a treaty
authorized by the Senate, on the basis of existing legislation, and pursuant to his authority as
chief executive when such an agreement is not inconsistent with legislation enacted by
Congress.17 Since the Paris Agreement has been adopted pursuant to the UNFCCC, which has
been ratified by the Senate, can be implemented based on the existing Clean Air Act and other
legislation18, and does not impose new substantive obligations upon the USA, it may be
considered an “international agreement other than a treaty”19 under US law and thus not
require the approval of the Senate.20
There is thus a real chance that the Paris Agreement might be spared the fate of the Kyoto
Protocol, which was never even submitted to the Senate and which lacked the support of the
USA. It may therefore fulfil its function as a truly global agreement. The price to pay was one
lesser one, namely the choice of a legal form that is not supported by specific provisions of
the convention. The second price weighs heavier, though: The Paris Agreement does not
contain any binding obligations with regard to emission reduction or financing activities.
These contributions were framed in non-binding language and/or relegated to decisions that
16 Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties (1969), Article 2.1 (a).
17 Foreign Affairs Manual - Chapter 700 Treaties and other international agreements,
http://www.state.gov/e/oes/rls/rpts/175/1319.htm
18 New analysis even concludes that the Paris Agreement unlocks the potential for the US Administration to use
provisions of the Clean Air Act that could so far not be applied to addressing climate change, see How The
Paris Climate Agreement Super-Charges The Clean Air Act,
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2016/01/14/3739649/paris-climate-agreement-clean-air-act/
19 Not an “Executive Agreement”, however, because “The term "executive agreement" is appropriately reserved
for agreements made solely on the basis of the constitutional authority of the President.”, see Foreign Affairs
Manual - Chapter 700 TREATIES AND OTHER INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENTS,
http://www.state.gov/e/oes/rls/rpts/175/1319.htm
20 This approach is not new and was, e.g., also chosen 2013 for the conclusion of the Minimata Convention on
Mercury: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2015/11/30/trick-or-treaty-the-legal-
question-hanging-over-the-paris-climate-change-conference/. See also the note of the State Department:
http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2013/11/217295.htm
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are not considered legally binding. And, one may conclude, the Paris Agreement provides just
another example where the political and constitutional peculiarities of one country determine
the shape of a vital agreement to protect the global commons.
However, the agreement contains legally binding obligations to communicate new national
contributions every five years. The Paris agreement therefore does not resolve anthropogenic
climate change in the same way as the Montreal Protocol resolved the issue of atmospheric
ozone. Instead, it creates periodical political space that needs to be filled through national
ambition (see section 3.5).
2.3 Purpose of the Agreement
The basic purpose of the agreement was one of the many areas where the issue of differentia-
tion was fought out. While in particular the LMDCs wanted language that the agreement
should “enhance the implementation of the Convention”, implying a continuation of the dis-
tinction between the Annexes, developed countries and AILAC supported language to “fur-
ther the objective of the Convention”. The USA would have preferred having no separate arti-
cle on purpose and to instead reflect purpose in the respective parts of the agreement.
There was also controversy on whether to explicitly reference the Convention’s principle of
common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities (CBDR-RC). The USA
had opposed including any references to this principle in the Durban Platform decision, read-
ing it as shorthand for continuing the dichotomy of the Annexes.21 However, in 2014, the joint
announcement by China and the USA had explicitly referenced CBDR-RC, but adding the
phrase “in light of different national circumstances”, thus maintaining the basic principle but
accommodating the US demand for a “dynamic” interpretation. This wording was subse-
quently also included in the Lima Call for Climate Action22, but in Paris there was nonethe-
less resistance to including this wording in the agreement.
Regarding specific objectives of the agreement, in 2010, at COP16 in Cancún, Parties had
agreed to keep global temperature increase below 2 °C compared to pre-industrial levels.
However, this had only been a COP decision, the question was therefore whether it would be
possible to enshrine this temperature limit in the treaty that was to come out of Paris. In addi-
tion, SIDS and the LDCs had long argued that 2°C was too weak a limit for them, with the
associated sea-level rise and other impacts threatening the mere survival of some of their
members. They had therefore long pushed for strengthening the limit to 1.5 °C, and due to
their insistence the 2010 COP in Cancún agreed that a review of the temperature limit would
be conducted in 2013-2015. This review notwithstanding, until Paris the push for 1.5 °C had
found little favour with the large emitters – the ones who would need to undertake the neces-
sary emission reductions. Industrialised countries thus for a long time argued for maintaining
the below 2 °C limit while in particular many oil-exporting countries preferred not to have
any temperature limit at all in the Paris agreement, and definitely not 1.5 °C. The LMDCs
21 Sterk, W., C. Arens, F. Mersmann, H. Wang-Helmreich, T. Wehnert (2011): On the Road Again. Progressive
Countries Score a Realpolitik Victory in Durban While the Real Climate Continues to Heat Up. Wuppertal:
Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment, Energy. http://wupperinst.org/en/info/details/wi/a/s/ad/1593/
22 Decision 1/CP.20, Lima Call for Climate Action, FCCC/CP/2014/10/Add.1, 2 February 2015.
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argued that they could agree to 1.5 °C under the condition that there was clarity on how this
limit was going to be met. In their view, achieving 1.5 °C would be the responsibility of the
industrialised countries, requiring a massive scale-up of their own reductions and of support
to developing countries, which were, however, not forthcoming.
Completion of the 2013-2015 review of the temperature limit was similarly blocked. The
review process had included a structured expert dialogue with scientists which had, among
other things, concluded that holding global warming below 2 °C was inadequate to prevent
dangerous climate change. However, in Paris, in particular China and Saudi Arabia blocked
adopting any substantive conclusions on the review, preferring to adopt only procedural
conclusions, taking note of the report from the expert dialogue and thanking the experts
involved.
Positions on the temperature limit shifted substantially during the Paris conference. While
before the conference few expected agreement on the 1.5 °C limit, in Paris, first individual
EU member states and then the entire EU came around to support 1.5 °C as part of forming
the “high ambition coalition”. Support for 1.5 °C was a conditio sine qua non for AOSIS and
the LDCs, with whom the EU sought to align. The USA and other industrialised countries
subsequently also shifted their position in favour of 1.5 °C. One may surmise that these
changes in position were motivated by negotiation tactics to separate the poorer developing
countries from the large emerging economy countries.
The final agreement includes as objective to hold the increase in the global average tempera-
ture to “well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the tempera-
ture increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels”. In addition, the agreements sets objectives
to increase “the ability to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change and foster climate
resilience and low greenhouse gas emissions development, in a manner that does not threaten
food production, and to make “finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low green-
house gas emissions and climate-resilient development”. All these objectives are set in the
context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty.23 The latter is an
acknowledgement of developing countries development concerns, which need to be taken into
account in efforts to combat climate change.
The agreement also repeats the Sino-US compromise on the Convention’s CBDR-RC princi-
ple, adding “in the light of different national circumstances.”24 While developing countries
thus won a hard-fought battle for re-iteration of the differentiation principle, the new language
can be interpreted to move beyond the static dichotomy of the Convention’s Annexes.
2.4 Individual Efforts
The negotiations on countries’ contributions also largely revolved around the issue of
differentiation. As noted above, many developing countries demanded that the Paris
Agreement should continue the clear differentiation between Annex I and non-Annex I in the
Convention while developed countries wanted to dismantle this “firewall”. They argued that
23 Paris Agreement, Advance unedited version, Art. 2.1.
24 Ibid., Art. 2.2.
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this issue had been put to rest with the introduction of the concept of INDCs, where countries
could “self-differentiate” by adopting contributions in line with their individual national
circumstances.
One main controversy in the negotiations was whether particular groups of countries should
be required to adopt particular types of contributions. In particular the LMDCs demanded that
industrialised countries should adopt legally binding commitments without any conditions
attached while mitigation contributions by developing countries should continue to be volun-
tary and conditional on the provision of support by industrialised countries. They therefore
wanted to effectively copy-paste the Convention’s provision that the extent to which develop-
ing countries would implement the agreement would depend on the effective provision of
finance, technology and capacity-building by developed countries. Industrialised countries in
turn held that all countries should be obliged to offer an unconditional mitigation contribution
(with the possibility to indicate further efforts that would be subject to the provision of sup-
port).
On the content of contributions, developing countries demanded that industrialised countries
should adopt absolute economy-wide emission reduction targets while developing countries’
contributions should be allowed to be diverse in nature, in accordance with respective national
circumstances. By contrast, many industrialised countries demanded that all major economies
should be required to adopt economy-wide emission targets. Furthermore, industrialised coun-
tries wanted to limit the scope of contributions to mitigation while developing countries held
that industrialised countries’ contributions should also include support to developing countries
while developing countries should be allowed to also include adaptation. Many developing
countries strongly rejected a “mitigation-centric” agreement, demanding that there should be
parity between mitigation, adaptation and provision of support.
The USA had introduced a twist into the issue of bindingness. They had for a long time sug-
gested that while all countries should be legally bound to provide contributions under the new
agreement, the content of the contributions should not be legally binding. In Paris, there was
thus a controversial debate on whether the agreement should require Parties to only “prepare
and communicate” contributions, or whether Parties should also be required to “implement”
them.
According to Art. 3 of the final agreement, “As nationally determined contributions to the
global response to climate change, all Parties are to undertake and communicate ambitious
efforts as defined in Articles 4, 7, 9, 10, 11 and 13 with the view to achieving the purpose of
this Agreement as set out in Article 2.”25 The article thus reflects developing countries’ de-
mand that contributions should cover not only mitigation but all elements, as Art. 4 covers
mitigation, Art. 7 adaptation, Art. 9 finance, Art. 10 technology, Art. 11 capacity-building,
and Art. 13 transparency. However, the agreement does not make developing countries’
contributions conditional on the provision of support, but it does recognise “the need to
support developing country Parties for the effective implementation of this Agreement.”26
25 Ibid., Art. 3.
26 Ibid.
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The subsequent Art. 4 spells out the details on the contributions, stipulating that each Party
“shall prepare, communicate and maintain successive nationally determined contributions that
it intends to achieve.” In addition, “Parties shall pursue domestic mitigation measures, with
the aim of achieving the objectives of such contributions.”27 The contributions are to be
housed in a public registry maintained by the Secretariat.28 The agreement also enshrines the
principle that there shall be no backsliding in contributions by requiring that each successive
contribution “will represent a progression beyond the Party’s then current nationally deter-
mined contribution”.29
Differentiation is addressed by the provision that developed countries “should continue taking
the lead by undertaking economy-wide absolute emission reduction targets” while developing
countries are called upon to “continue enhancing their mitigation efforts, and are encouraged
to move over time towards economy-wide emission reduction or limitation targets in the light
of different national circumstances.”30 Furthermore, support “shall be provided to developing
country Parties for the implementation of this Article (…) recognizing that enhanced support
for developing country Parties will allow for higher ambition in their actions.”31 The section
also repeats the compromise on the CBDR-RC principle, stipulating that a Party’s contribu-
tion will reflect “its common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, in
the light of different national circumstances.”32
Further guidance on features of contributions is to be developed in the coming years. Earlier
drafts had included language that mitigation contributions should include unconditional parts,
but this provision did not survive in the final agreement. Neither are there mandatory infor-
mation requirements for the submission of contributions yet. Here as well further guidance is
to be developed in the coming years.33
2.5 Mitigation
The mitigation part of the negotiations involved a complex set of sub-issues. At the aggregate
level, there was the question of whether to further operationalize the temperature limit by
means of another qualitative or quantitative long-term goal. Further discussions revolved
around whether to have specific provisions addressing emissions from deforestation and from
international aviation and shipping, and whether to include market-based mechanisms as in
the Kyoto Protocol. The issue of individual efforts has already been discussed in section 2.4,
as the notably cover not only mitigation, but also adaptation and provision of support.
2.5.1 Ambition
On ambition, a key discussion revolved around whether to adopt a global long-term emission
target or other types of targets in order to turn the temperature limit into a concrete goal. Al-
ready the process under the Bali Roadmap from 2007 to 2012 had included this topic but the
27 Ibid., Art. 4.2.
28 Ibid., Art. 4.12.
29 Ibid., Art. 3.
30 Ibid., Art. 4.3.
31 Ibid., Art. 4.5.
32 Ibid., Art. 4.3.
33 Decision -/CP.21, Adoption of the Paris Agreement, Advance unedited version, paras 26-28.
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diplomats at that stage were unable to agree on a long-term global emission goal. The 2015
Group of Seven (G7) meeting in Elmau, Germany, had taken a unexpected step and called for
a “decarbonisation of the global economy over the course of this century“ and supported set-
ting a global emission target at „the upper end of the latest IPCC recommendation of 40 to 70
% reductions by 2050 compared to 2010“.34 In the climate negotiations, the EU and AILAC
furthermore called for reaching zero net emissions of CO2 and other long-lived GHGs by the
end of the century while AOSIS and the LDCs called for global emission reductions of at
least 70-90% by 2050. Some SIDS also called for full decarbonisation by 2050. By contrast,
in particular Arab and other oil exporting countries opposed including any language on decar-
bonisation or emission neutrality.
The penultimate negotiation draft still included a reference to “reaching greenhouse gas emis-
sions neutrality in the second half of the century”. In the last negotiation hours compromise
language was included which has also been used in the Convention and practically represents
a scientific definition of the term “greenhouse gas neutrality”. Parties agreed to “aim to reach
global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible, recognizing that peaking will
take longer for developing country Parties, and to undertake rapid reductions thereafter in
accordance with best available science, so as to achieve a balance between anthropogenic
emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of this
century, on the basis of equity, and in the context of sustainable development and efforts to
eradicate poverty.“35
Since almost all of the INDCs had been communicated before COP21, the projected impact
on emissions was well known before the conference started. According to an analysis
conducted by independent research institutes, the 158 INDCs submitted by the beginning of
December had the potential to limit warming to 2.7 °C by 2100 if all governments meet their
pledges.36 Other estimates ranged the likely impact to a projected warming of 3 – 3.5 °C.37 It
was thus apparent from the outset that the Paris Agreement would fall well short of the goal to
limit global mean temperature rise to below 2 °C, not to mention 1.5°C. The Parties
acknowledge this shortfall in the decision adopting the agreement, which “notes with
concern” that the contributions “do not fall within least-cost 2 °C scenarios but rather lead to
a projected level of 55 gigatonnes in 2030”.38
The effectiveness of the Paris Agreement in limiting global warming therefore depends on the
quick strengthening of the national contributions. The instrument for such strengthening is an
innovative review mechanism (“ratchet”) that aims for Parties to strengthen their
contributions every five years (see section 2.9.1 below).
34 Leadersʼ Declaration G7 Summit Germany, 7-8 June 2015,
http://www.international.gc.ca/g8/g7_germany_declaration-g7_allemagne_declaration.aspx?lang=eng
35 Paris Agreement, advance unedited version, Art. 4.1.
36 Climate pledges will bring 2.7°C of warming, potential for more action,
http://climateactiontracker.org/news/253/Climate-pledges-will-bring-2.7C-of-warming-potential-for-more-
action.html
37 For an assessment of the different calculations see Levin, K, T. Fransen (2015): INSIDER: Why Are INDC
Studies Reaching Different Temperature Estimates? http://www.wri.org/blog/2015/11/insider-why-are-indc-
studies-reaching-different-temperature-estimates
38 Decision -/CP.21, Adoption of the Paris Agreement, Advance unedited version, para 17.
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Analyses immedately after Paris seem to indicate that an optimal use of the ratchet
mechanism would be sufficient to keep global mean temperatures below 2 °C.39 This would
imply, however, that already in 2018 countries communicate strengthened contributions by
2030 and that they commit to longer term targets with substantial emission reductions.
Especially if cuts by developing countries are envisaged, this would imply greater financial
support from developed countries.
The technological means for staying below 1.5 °C are basically the same as those required to
stay below 2 °C – but they would have to be developed faster.40 According to this analysis,
“negative CO2 emissions technology“ will be required to reach both temperature goals,
referring to technologies that take carbon out of the air. To achieve large-scale negative
emissions this could mean combining biomass energy systems with carbon capture and
storage technologies.
2.5.2 Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+)
Deforestation and forest degradation activities are a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions, being responsible for more than ten per cent of the global GHG emissions. At the
same time, forests store large amounts of carbon and provide numerous environmental and
social functions. In order to support developing countries in their efforts to reduce emissions
from forest activities and to protect and enhance forest carbon stocks, negotiations to establish
a dedicated instrument, the REDD+41 mechanism, have been ongoing since 2005.
In Paris, negotiators dealing with the issue of REDD+ met with their homework done. Tech-
nical issues had already been resolved in advance: In 2013, Parties had adopted a package of
7 decisions that resulted in the Warsaw Framework for REDD+.42 Three outstanding issues
had been further agreed at the SBSTA session in Bonn in June 2015 and were forwarded as
draft decisions to the COP, who adopted all three of them. The first decision43 gives addition-
al guidance regarding the information Parties are to provide when informing on how social
and environmental safeguards are being addressed and respected when implementing REDD+
activities. The second decision44 assists developing countries willing to develop non-market
based approaches as an alternative to results-based payments. With the decision on non-
carbon benefits45, Parties further agreed that while benefits resulting from the implementation
39 Climate Interactive’s “Ratchet Success” scenario yields expected warming by 2100 of 1.8°C (3.2°F), with a
range of uncertainty from 0.9 to 2.4°C (1.7 to 4.4°F): https://www.climateinteractive.org/blog/press-release-
with-an-ambitious-review-cycle-offers-to-paris-climate-talks-could-limit-warming-below-2c/
40 This is suggested by an analysis of Climate Analytics: http://climateanalytics.org/hot-topics/feasibility-of-
limiting-warming-to-below-1-5c
41 REDD+: Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation and the role of conservation,
sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries.
42 Sterk, W., C. Arens, N. Kreibich, L. Hermwille, F. Mersmann, T. Wehnert (2013): Warsaw Groundhog Days
– Old Friends, Positions and Impasses Revisited All Over Again at the 2013 Warsaw Climate Conference.
Wuppertal: Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy.
http://wupperinst.org/en/info/details/wi/a/s/ad/2447/
43 Decision -/CP.21, Further guidance on ensuring transparency, consistency, comprehensiveness and
effectiveness when informing on how all the safeguards referred to in decision 1/CP.16, appendix I, are being
addressed and respected, Advance unedited version.
44 Decision -/CP.21, Alternative policy approaches, such as joint mitigation and adaptation approaches for the
integral and sustainable management of forests, Advance unedited version.
45 Decision -/CP.21, Methodological issues related to non-carbon benefits resulting from the implementation of
the activities referred to in decision 1/CP.16, paragraph 70, Advance unedited version.
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of REDD+ activities are to be incentivized, they do not constitute a requirement for develop-
ing countries seeking to receive support for these activities.
With the technical details being settled, the focus of the negotiations in Paris shifted to the
role REDD+ would have post-2020: Would REDD+ be explicitly mentioned in the agreement
text or would the Paris Agreement be sector neutral? And if yes, what message would the
respective section convey to those already implementing and supporting REDD+ action? For-
ests where high on the Paris agenda, in particular outside the negotiation rooms: The climate
negotiations took off with the announcement by Norway, United Kingdom (UK) and Germa-
ny to provide USD 5 billion of finance for REDD+ over the next five years and in numerous
side events practitioners shared experiences made with REDD+ on the ground.
Within the negotiations on the Paris Agreement, Parties built on the outcome of the Ad Hoc
Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action (ADP) session from October in
Bonn. The draft agreement contained several references to REDD+ in numerous sections,
including a separate article on REDD+. This article foresaw the establishment of a genuine
REDD+ mechanism, a proposal pushed for by the Coalition of Rainforest Nations (CfRN),
which supports a market-based approach for REDD+ financing. The REDD+ section also
featured Bolivia’s proposal to establish a Joint Mitigation and Adaptation Mechanism (JMA)
as a non-market based alternative of implementing forest protection activities. In the second
week of the negotiations, however, the proposal to establish a new mechanism for REDD+
was dropped and was not reinserted despite several Parties from the CfRN repeatedly calling
for it to be part of the final text, as other Parties thought REDD+ could be better operational-
ized under existing institutions.
The Paris Agreement does therefore not install a new REDD+ mechanism but instead builds
on the Warsaw Framework for REDD+ and related decisions: Article 5 of the Agreement,
which is exclusively devoted to REDD+, states that Parties “are encouraged to take action to
implement and support […] the existing [REDD+] framework”46 including through results-
based payments. The text also mentions the use of alternative policy approaches, such as joint
implementation and adaptation approaches. It further states that “Parties should take action to
conserve and enhance, as appropriate, sinks and reservoirs of greenhouse gases”47.
Despite the fact that the wording of this paragraph has been strengthened in the course of the
negotiation process (from “are encouraged to take action” to “should take action”), the
general wording of the REDD+ article remains rather weak. However, the relevance of the
concept is underscored with its explicit mention in the finance section of the COP Decision
adopting the Paris Agreement, which contains a paragraph that stresses the importance of
providing financial resources for REDD+ activities.48
2.5.3 Aviation and Shipping
Emissions from international aviation and shipping activities account for an ever larger share
of greenhouse gas emissions globally. If they were a country, they would rank among the
world’s top 10 emitters and have in recent years grown twice as fast as emissions in general,
46 Paris Agreement, Advance unedited version, Art. 5.2.
47 Ibid., Art. 5.1.
48 Decision -/CP.21, Adoption of the Paris Agreement, Advance unedited version, para 55.
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with projected increases of 250-300 percent until 2050.49 Over the years many attempts have
been made to include these ‘bunker fuels’ into the efforts to curb emissions, but without much
success. The Kyoto Protocol in Article 2.2 requests that “Parties included in Annex I shall
pursue limitation or reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases (...) from aviation and marine
bunker fuels, working through the International Civil Aviation Organization and the
International Maritime Organization, respectively.“ However, these organisations have to date
not been able to agree on a common approach to deal with this issue.
The first draft of the Paris Agreement, submitted on 5 December 2015, included a comparable
formulation in the draft Article 3.20, requesting Parties to pursue their efforts through the
International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and the International Maritime
Organization (IMO) respectively. It went further, however, suggesting that these
organisations should develop “procedures for incorporating emissions from international
aviation and marine bunker fuels into low-emission development strategies”. While in
particular the EU and the environmental integrity group supported such a clause, China, India,
the USA and others were opposed, and it was ultimately dropped from the draft early in the
second week of negotiations. The Paris Agreement and the related decision do not mention
aviation and marine transport emissions once.
This leaves the issue completely to ICAO and IMO without any guidance from the climate
regime – two organisations that are heavily influenced by the respective industries. Because
of the growing emissions in this sector, the issue will have to be seriously addressed in the
next years if the purpose of the Paris Agreement, enshrined in Article 2, is to be fulfilled. If
not, any reduction efforts in the land transport sector might be compromised if there are not
equally ambitious actions on international aviation and shipping.
2.5.4 Cooperative Mechanisms
Market-based policy schemes are spreading worldwide. About 40 national or subnational sys-
tems for emissions trading or taxing GHG emissions have been implemented to date.50 How-
ever, “national or subnational” are the key words here, demand for emission reductions from
international mechanisms continues to be low. Out of 86 countries that stated that they
planned or considered using international market mechanisms in their INDCs, only thirteen
emerged as potential buyers, notably excluding the EU, which has been a major proponent of
market mechanisms so far.51 The EU and others nonetheless pushed strongly for the inclusion
of market mechanisms in the Paris Agreement. On the other side, leftist Latin American gov-
ernments strongly resisted including market mechanisms in the new agreement.
To accommodate these countries, the final outcome makes no explicit mention of markets, but
enables market-based approaches in several ways. One distinct feature is a new mechanism
49 Lee, D. S., L. L. Lim, B. Owen (2013). Bridging the aviation CO2 emissions gap: Why emissions trading is
needed. Manchester: Dalton Research Institute / Manchester Metropolitan University.
http://www.cate.mmu.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Bridging_the_aviation_emissions_gap_010313.pdf
50 The World Bank (2015): State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2015.
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/09/25053834/state-trends-carbon-pricing-2015
51 Obergassel, W., M. Gornik (2015): Update on the Role of Market Mechanisms in Intended Nationally
Determind Contributions. Wuppertal: Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy (JIKO
Policy Brief 04/2015). http://www.carbon-mechanisms.de/en/2015/update-on-role-of-market-mechanisms-in-
intended-nationally-determined-contributions/
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which is to ”promote the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions while fostering sustainable
development”.52 While building on the experiences of the flexible mechanisms of the Kyoto
Protocol53, the scope of this mechanism is broader in that it is not restricted to project-type
activities. Furthermore, it is to ”deliver an overall mitigation in global emissions”54, thus go-
ing beyond the zero-sum game of the Kyoto Mechanisms to date. The deviation from the
Kyoto world is also mirrored in the fact that both developed and developing countries can use
the mechanisms, leading to a kind of hybrid between the Clean Development Mechanism and
Joint Implementation, respectively. Other features of this mechanism include oversight by the
UNFCCC, participation of public as well as private entities, and the prohibition of double
counting (i.e. accounting for emission reductions at the same time in the inventories of the
host country as well as in the budget of the receiving country).
The decision text tasks the SBSTA with elaborating modalities and procedures for this mech-
anism.55 The decision text names important principles in this context, namely that reductions
must be ”real, measurable and long-term”.56 This last attribute was a major bone of conten-
tion. An earlier draft of the negotiation text stated that emission reductions must be “perma-
nent”, but forest countries strongly pushed for the ultimately accepted formulation in order to
open-up the mechanism to land-use and forestry activities. Further, reductions must be addi-
tional, relate to yet-to-be defined ‘specific scopes’ of activities, and be verified and certified
by designated operational entities (DOEs)57.
Moreover, the Paris Agreement allows Parties to conduct “cooperative approaches.”58 Under
these, mitigation outcomes can be “internationally transferred” and “used” against nationally
determined contributions.59 The respective article 6.2 names environmental integrity, trans-
parency and robust accounting as the core principles guiding these approaches, while UN-
FCCC oversight is not foreseen. Instead, the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting
of the Parties to the Paris Agreement (CMA) is to develop dedicated guidance. These provi-
sions could open many ways of cooperation, for example the transfer of units stemming from
bilateral schemes such as the Japanese Joint Crediting Mechanism, but also to emissions trad-
ing between Parties. However, these opportunities hinge on the yet-to-be-developed guidance.
2.6 Adaptation
With many developing countries already experiencing impacts of climate change, for many
years, they have made efforts to raise the status of adaptation in the climate regime, which has
historically been put in second place by developed countries.60 In this regard, the outcome of
52 Paris Agreement, Advance unedited version, Art. 6.4.
53 Decision -/CP.21, Adoption of the Paris Agreement, Advance unedited version, para. 38f.
54 Paris Agreement, Advance unedited version, Art. 6.4d.
55 Decision -/CP.21, Adoption of the Paris Agreement, Advance unedited version, para. 39.
56 Ibid., para. 38b.
57 Ibid., paras 38c-d.
58 Paris Agreement, Advance unedited version, Art. 6.2, 6.3.
59 Ibid.
60 Ott, H., W. Obergassel, C. Arens, L. Hermwille, F. Mersmann, H. Wang-Helmreich (2014): Climate policy:
road work and new horizons – an assessment of the UNFCCC process from Lima to Paris and beyond. In:
Environmental Liability, Vol. 22, No. 6, pp. 223-238.
http://wupperinst.org/uploads/tx_wupperinst/Post_Lima_Pre_Paris.pdf
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climate negotiations in Paris can be considered a huge success for developing country Parties.
Never before has greater importance been placed on national as well as global action to help
people adapt to climate change impacts than in the Paris Agreement: Recognizing that
adaptation “is a key component of and makes a contribution to the long-term global response
to climate change to protect people, livelihoods and ecosystems”61, the Paris Agreement
furthers the participation of all countries in adaptation activities and requests all Parties to
engage in adaptation planning processes and the implementation of actions.62 According to
the Agreement, all adaptation action should follow a country-driven, gender-responsive,
participatory and fully transparent approach, taking into consideration vulnerable groups,
communities and ecosystems.63
Article 7.1 of the Agreement establishes a long-term vision on adaptation. This issue was on
the agenda of many developing countries who aimed at ensuring parity between mitigation
and adaptation in the agreement. Developed countries, in contrast, had put forward a proposal
for no text on this issue. The COP finally decided on a global goal to enhance adaptive
capacity, strengthen resilience and reduce vulnerability to climate change to ensure “an
adequate adaptation response in the context of the temperature goal referred to in Article 2”64.
Parties explicitly recognize that the “current need for adaptation is significant and that greater
levels of mitigation can reduce the need for addditional adaptation efforts”65 as well as the
associated costs. The explicit link to the temperature goal is important as it acknowledges that
global needs for adaptation highly depend on the sucess of mitigation activities.
In parallel to the contribution cycles for mitigation, action on adaptation is to be reviewed and
accelerated every five years. This was welcomed warmly by many developing country Parties
as well as by observer organisations. Most Intendend Nationally Determined Contributions
(INDCs) submitted in the run-up to Paris by developing countries already included
information regarding countries’ adaptation priorities, implementation and support needs as
well as plans and actions. Offering flexibility regarding timing and methods for
communicating information, the Paris Agreement requests all Parties to compile information
on these topics in an adaptation communication which is to be recorded in a public registry
maintained by the secretariat of the UNFCCC and updated periodically.66 National adaptation
communications will be part of the global stocktake (see section 2.9.1), thus offering
opportunities to review the overall progress made in achieving the global goal on adaptation
and to spiral up adaptation action and support.67
Increased adaptation finance was a top priority in the negotiations for many developing
country Parties. The need for substantial adaptation finance is recognized in the Paris
Agreement which calls for a balance between adaptation and mitigation finance and support.68
Though the call for balanced allocation is not new, in practice, developed countries have so
far put adaptation finance in second place after mitigation finance. Furthermore, the
61 Paris Agreement, Advance unedited version, Art. 7.2.
62 Ibid., Art. 7.9.
63 Ibid., Art. 7.5.
64 Ibid., Art. 7.1.
65 Ibid., Art. 7.4.
66 Ibid., Art. 7.10, 7.11 and 7.12.
67 Ibid., Art. 7.14.
68 Ibid., Art. 9.4 and 11.6.
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Agreement recognizes the need for public and grant-based resources for adaptation as well as
the special needs of the most vulnerable nations.69 However, while the Agreement states that
“[c]ontinuous and enhanced international support shall be provided to developing country
Parties”70 and recognizes the importance of support for and international cooperation on
enhanced adaptation efforts71, it does not include a collective, quantified goal for adaptation
finance, as had been demanded by developing countries.
Workstream 2 (WS2) of the ADP was orignially designated only to increase the near-term
(pre-2020) ambition of mitigation activities, particularly by developed countries.72 Develop-
ing countries, however, especially those who are particularly vulnerable, fought hard for the
recognition of adaptation under WS2. Among other issues, this was seen as a means to under-
line the importance of adaptation and was considered helpful to push climate change adapta-
tion even higher on national agendas. In the end, despite hesitation by developed countries,
developing countries were successful in their attempt to establish another institution under
WS2 which will focus on adaptation: Thus, in Paris, Parties launched a technical examination
process (TEP) on adaptation in the period 2016-2020 complementary to the existing
mitigation TEP. This process will focus on lesson sharing and identifying opportunities for
implementation and cooperative action and will thus increase countries’ ability to adapt to
climate change.
Like the mitigation TEP, the adaptation TEP will be organized jointly by the Subsidiary Body
for Implementation (SBI) and the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice
(SBSTA), and conducted by the Adaptation Committee. It will take into account the process,
modalities, outputs, outcomes and lessons learned from the TEP on mitigation. The goal of
the new TEP will be the identification of concrete opportunities for strengthening resilience,
reducing vulnerabilities and increasing the understanding and implementation of adaptation
actions. To support the TEP on adaptation, the secretariat is to organize regular technical
expert meetings (TEMs) and to annually prepare a technical paper.73
Apart from the Paris Agreement and associated decisions, on-going business regarding
adaptation centred on the Adaptation Committee, the Buenos Aires Programme of Work on
Adaptation and Response Measures, the Nairobi Work Programme and the Adaptation Fund.
Thus, the report of the Adaptation Committee resulted in COP decisions which, inter alia,
invite the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to enhance outreach activities
that facilitate policymakers’ understanding of the impact of different levels of warming on
adaptation planning and actions.74 Furthermore, Parties are invited to take into account
climate risk screening of national development strategies and policies aimed at enhancing
livelihoods and economic diversification to enhance climate resilience.75 Moreover, the COP
requests the Technology Executive Committee (TEC) to consider how it can help Parties to
69 Ibid., Art. 9.4.
70 Ibid., Art. 7.13.
71 Ibid., Art. 7.6 and 7.7.
72 See also Ott, H., W. Obergassel, C. Arens, L. Hermwille, F. Mersmann, H. Wang-Helmreich (2014): Climate
policy: road work and new horizons – an assessment of the UNFCCC process from Lima to Paris and
beyond. In: Environmental Liability, Vol. 22, No. 6, pp. 223-238.
http://wupperinst.org/uploads/tx_wupperinst/Post_Lima_Pre_Paris.pdf
73 Decision -/CP.21, Adoption of the Paris Agreement, Advance unedited version, paras 125-133.
74 Decision -/CP.21, Report of the Adaptation Committee, Advance unedited version, para 4.
75 Ibid., para 6.
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align their technology needs assessments (TNAs) with their national adaptation plans (NAPs).
To this end, the TEC is to collaborate with the Climate Technology Centre and Network
(CTCN), the Adaptation Committee and the Least Developed Countries Expert Group
(LEG).76 Decisions on the process to assess progress made regarding the formulation and
implementation of national adaptation plans (NAPs) were made separately.77 Finally, the COP
requests the Adaptation Committee to further strengthen cooperation with the Standing
Committee on Finance (SCF) and other constituted bodies under the Convention to enhance
coherence and collaboration regarding adaptation finance.78 The Committee’s recommen-
dation for a closer cooperation with the Finance Mechanism had been discussed in the
Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI) before but had still been rejected by the SBI in
Lima at COP 20.79
In the decision adopting the Paris Agreement, the COP, inter alia, requests the Adaptation
Committee and the LEG to jointly develop modalities to recognize the adaptation efforts of
developing country Parties, make recommendations to review in 2017 the work of adaptation-
related institutional arrangements under the Convention, and to consider methodologies for
assessing adaptation needs. Furthermore, the Adaptation Committee and the LEG, in
collaboration with the Standing Committee on Finance (SCF) and other relevant institutions,
shall develop methodologies and make recommendations on taking the necessary steps to
facilitate the mobilization of support for adaptation in developing countries and reviewing the
adequacy and effectiveness of adaptation and support.80
Concerning the implementation of the Buenos Aires Programme of Work on Adaptation and
Response Measures (Decision 1/CP.10), Parties (Argentina for the G77/China, Ghana for the
African Group, Saudi Arabia) criticised that during negotiations, discussions in first week’s
contact group strongly depended on developments in negotiations under the ADP.81 The
forum is to provide a platform to allow Parties to share information, experiences, case studies,
best practices and views, and to facilitate assessment and analysis of the impact of the
implementation of response measures. Hereby, it supports the finding of recommendations for
specific actions and enhances the capacity of Parties, in particular developing country Parties,
to deal with the impact of the implementation of response measures.
The final COP decision focused on continueing and improving the forum. To advance the
work of the improved forum, the Subsidiary Bodies (SBs) are to constitute ad hoc technical
expert groups with balanced regional represention of Parties to elaborate on the technical
work. Furthermore, the COP adopted a work programme which comprises the areas of
economic diversification and transformation, just transition of the work force, and the creation
of decent work and quality jobs. The implementation of the work programme shall address
76 Ibid., para 5.
77 Decision –CP.21, National adaptation plans, Advance unedited version.
78 Decision -/CP.21, Report of the Adaptation Committee, Advance unedited version, para 7.
79 Ott, H., W. Obergassel, C. Arens, L. Hermwille, F. Mersmann, H. Wang-Helmreich (2014): Climate policy:
road work and new horizons – an assessment of the UNFCCC process from Lima to Paris and beyond. In:
Environmental Liability, Vol. 22, No. 6, pp. 223-238.
http://wupperinst.org/uploads/tx_wupperinst/Post_Lima_Pre_Paris.pdf.
80 Decision -/CP.21, Adoption of the Paris Agreement, Advance unedited version, paras 42-46.
81 IISD Reporting Services (2015): Earth Negotiations Bulletin, Vol. 12, No. 663. Summary of the Paris Climate
Change Conference: 29 November -13 December 2015. Paris: IISD Reporting Services.
http://www.iisd.ca/download/pdf/enb12663e.pdf
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the needs of all Parties, in particular, developing country Parties, and shall be informed, inter
alia, by the assessment and analysis of impacts. The work programme is to be reviewed by the
SBs every three years. Finally, the COP requested the Secretariat to prepare, subject to the
availability of financial resources, a guidance document to assist developing countries to
assess the impact of the implementation of response measures as well as technical materials to
assist developing countries on their economic diversification initiatives.82
In the context of the Nairobi Work Programme (NWP), the Lima Adaptation Knowledge
Initiative (LAKI)’s aims are the identification and priorization of knowledge gaps at the sub-
regional level and to fill these gaps. The progress of LAKI in various sub-regions was stressed
by the UN Environment Programme as well as by Botswana and Sri Lanka who also
welcomed LAKI’s future workshops.83 The information provided by LAKI were also
recognised by the SBSTA in the conclusions of the NWP which were adopted on Friday, 4th
December. In the conclusions, the SBSTA, among other issues, also noted with appreciation
the reports provided on good practices and lessons learned in adaptation planning and
progress on implementing activities under the NWP, and the information provided by the
Adaptation Committee and the Least Developed Countries Expert Group (LEG). Moreover,
the SBSTA welcomed the launch of the Adaptation Knowledge Portal and recognized its role
in enhancing the dissemination of knowledge developed under the NWP, the Adaptation
Committee and the WIM (Warsaw International Mechanism on Loss and Damage associated
with Climate Change Impacts) Executive Committee.84
On Wednesday, 2 December, Adaptation Fund Board Chair Hans Olav Ibrekk (Norway)
reported that the fund was highly in demand and delivered effectively on its mandate.
However, he feared that the sustainability of the Fund was “in danger”85. The share of
proceeds from Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) activities for the Fund have been
declining substantially due to extremely low prices for Certified Emission Reductions (CERs)
causing financial difficulties for the Fund. The report of the Adaptation Fund Board as well as
a decision were adopted by the COP on Sunday, 13 December. The decision includes the
CMP’s request to the Adaptation Fund Board to continue simplifying accreditation
procedures for national implementing entities. Furthermore, the CMP urged Parties to deliver
on their announced financial contributions for the fundraising target of the Adaptation Fund
Board as soon as possible and encouraged voluntary support for resource mobilization of the
Adaptation Fund Board in addition to the share of proceeds from CDM activities.86
82 Decision -/CP.21, Forum and work programme on the impact of the implementation of response measures,
Advance unedited version.
83 IISD Reporting Services (2015): Earth Negotiations Bulletin, Vol. 12, No. 663. Summary of the Paris Climate
Change Conference: 29 November -13 December 2015. Paris: IISD Reporting Services.
http://www.iisd.ca/download/pdf/enb12663e.pdf
84 Draft conclusions proposed by the Chair, Nairobi work programme on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to
climate change, FCCC/SBSTA/2015/L.19.
85 IISD Reporting Services (2015): Earth Negotiations Bulletin, Vol. 12, No. 663. Summary of the Paris Climate
Change Conference: 29 November -13 December 2015. Paris: IISD Reporting Services.
http://www.iisd.ca/download/pdf/enb12663e.pdf
86 Decision -/CMP.11, Report of the Adaptation Fund Board, Advance unedited version.
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2.7 Loss and Damage
Loss and damage refers to adverse effects of climate change which cannot be adapted to. The
concept has been a contentious issue of the climate change negotiations for many years. De-
veloping countries, in particular LDCs as well as other countries particularly vulnerable to the
impacts of climate change, have been fighting strongly for its recognition. This was achieved
implicitly with respective language in the preamble of the COP decisions in Doha in 2012,
and explicitly by the installation of the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Dam-
age associated with Climate Change Impacts (WIM) one year later. Despite these achieve-
ments, the issue of loss and damage has not progressed significantly since. Due to the late
nomination of members, the Executive Committee of the WIM held its first meeting only in
September 2015 and the implementation of the workplan has just begun. In Paris, the COP
noted “with concern” the limited progress made and agreed to extent the member’s terms of
office. Parties further urged the Executive Committee to explore modalities of work to fulfil
its mandate.87
Against the backdrop of the limited progress, the question whether loss and damage would be
a part of the Paris Agreement was key. In Paris, discussions where highly politicised and most
deliberations on loss and damage took place informally behind closed doors. After intense
negotiations, loss and damage finally found its way into the Paris Agreement. With this, de-
veloping countries have achieved the formal recognition and strengthening of the concept.
However, the US, with the support of other developed countries, managed to include a phrase
that rules out claims of compensation and liability in the context of loss and damage.
The recognition of loss and damage as a part of the Paris Agreement on the one hand and the
exclusion of liability and compensation on the other where the crunch issues that dominated
the negotiations on this issue from the very beginning. In the course of 2015, developing
countries had already made clear that a Paris Agreement without reference to loss and damage
was no option for them. The Umbrella Group in contrast, called for the respective article of
the draft agreement to be removed, mainly because developing countries had called for com-
pensation language in the text, causing fears of liability on the side of developed countries. By
recognizing that this was seen as a no-go by developed countries, the group of G77/China in
June tabled an alternative proposal that made no reference to compensation. Developed coun-
tries, however, continued calling for the issue to be addressed outside the agreement text.
In the first week of the Paris negotiations, no fundamental progress was achieved and when
the draft agreement was forwarded to ministers, the option to exclude loss and damage from
the agreement was still on the table as also was its inclusion, either as a separate article or in
the adaptation section. What prevented developed countries from agreeing on the inclusion of
loss and damage in the Paris Agreement continued to be the fears of liability and compensa-
tion, despite the fact that neither of both terms were mentioned in the draft agreement. To
them, the concept of loss and damage as such is associated with the notion of liability and
compensation, even without these terms being explicitly alluded to, as Todd Stern, US special
envoy for climate change, made clear: “There is one thing we don’t accept and won’t accept
in this agreement and that is the notion that there should be liability and compensation for loss
87 Decision -/CP.21, The Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage associated with Climate
Change Impacts, Advance unedited version.
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and damage. That’s a line that we can’t cross.”88 This position was shared by several other
developed countries. Against this backdrop, the USA and other developed countries called for
the insertion of a clause that ensured that the inclusion of loss and damage under the Paris
Agreement would not provide any basis for liability and compensation. In the end, developing
countries agreed to such a clause, which, however, is not contained in the agreement itself, as
the USA had originally pushed for, but in paragraph 52 of the accompanying COP decisions.
In exchange, developing countries were able to anchor a separate article on loss and damage
in the Paris Agreement.
This article (Art. 8) underscores the relevance of dealing with loss and damage and lists a
total of eight areas of cooperation to enhance understanding, action and support including
early warning systems, slow onset events and non-economic losses. The Paris Agreement
does not create a new mechanism, as originally proposed by developing countries, but states
that the Warsaw Mechanism for Loss and Damage (WIM) is to operate under the governing
body of the new agreement. It further states that the WIM “may be enhanced and strength-
ened”89 in the future and continued, following a review in 2016, as contained in the COP de-
cision adopting the agreement.90 The decision further requests the Executive Committee of
the WIM to establish a task force to develop recommendations for dealing with climate
change related displacement.91 This reflects the call from developing countries for the instal-
lation of a climate change displacement coordination facility, however, without giving it the
institutional strength G77/China had called for, who wanted the facility to be installed by the
governing body of the agreement. Parties also agreed on the installation of a clearinghouse for
risk transfer,92 as had been proposed by developed countries. This reflects recent initiatives
outside the UNFCCC, such as the G7 Climate Risk Insurance Initiative launched in June,
which is to cover 300 million people in developing countries with a climate risk insurance.
However, while the enhancement of support for dealing with loss and damage is part of the
agreement, there is no explicit reference to loss and damage in the finance section. A para-
graph contained in the draft version of the agreement forwarded to Ministers after the end of
the first week, which had called for the provision of support for addressing loss and damage,
was ultimately deleted. Similarly, a paragraph clearly indicating that some of the impacts
caused by climate change go beyond the limits of adaption, which was included in the adapta-
tion section of the draft agreement until the very end of the negotiations, is not contained in
the final version of the Paris Agreement. This paragraph would have underscored the recogni-
tion of loss and damage as a third pillar next to mitigation and adaptation.
2.8 Means of Implementation
For developing countries to effectively implement their nationally determined contributions,
industrialised countries will have to offer assistance in various forms. The basis for this obli-
88 United States of America (2015): Press briefing with Special Envoy for Climate Change Todd D. Stern,
http://unfccc6.meta-fusion.com/cop21/events/2015-12-04-14-30-united-states-of-america . 13min (emphasis
added).
89 Paris Agreement, Advance unedited version, Art. 8.2 (emphasis added).
90 Decision -/CP.21, Adoption of the Paris Agreement, Advance unedited version, para 48.
91 Ibid., para 50.
92 Ibid., para 49.
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gation reaches back as far as the original text of the Convention (UNFCCC Art. 4). Support to
developing countries in general should come in the form of finance, technology development
and transfer, and capacity building. Bearing in mind that especially finance and technology
are "hard currency" not only in the climate realm, but have notable implications for country
budgets, the history of the COPs has seen fights thereover at almost every session.
A large portion of the Paris Agreement contains provisions for support to developing coun-
tries, albeit of varying strength: Article 9 deals with finance, Article 10 with technology de-
velopment and transfer, Articles 11 and 12 with capacity building and education. Article 13
does not only contain provisions for transparency of mitigation efforts, but also of support
offered and received. The decision on the adoption of the Paris Agreement contains a number
of specifications to the articles mentioned above.
2.8.1 Finance
Fights over provisions on finance within the international climate regime have always threat-
ened to "break" the outcome of the negotiations as a whole, and Paris was no different in this
regard.
Shortly before the start of COP21, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Devel-
opment (OECD) together with the Climate Policy Initiative had issued a report on the mobili-
sation of climate finance by developed countries from 2013 to 2014, which calculated a sum
of 62 billion USD in 2014, up from 52 billion in 2013.93 In Copenhagen, industrialised coun-
tries had pledged to mobilise USD 100 billion in climate finance from a number of sources in
2020 and beyond, but the road to reach that goal had always been unclear. So, being more
than halfway there was presented as a major success by many industrialised countries, includ-
ing France, early in the first week of the Paris summit.
However, developing countries were less positive. Especially India voiced serious concerns
on the methodology and transparency of the report, which was mainly grounded within the
accounting system of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development's Devel-
opment Assistance Committee (OECD-DAC). The Indian Ministry of Economic Affairs pub-
lished a paper casting serious doubts on the figures offered by the OECD report, and Indian
officials at the Paris summit suggested that the true figure could be as low as 2.2 billion
USD.94
It was clear that finance would once more be a major stumbling stone for an agreement. A
spin-off group on finance was formed, but every report back to the plenary in the following
two weeks reiterated major difficulties in finding common ground. While partial agreements
could be formed, such as that provision of financial resources should aim for a balance be-
tween mitigation and adaptation, most content remained completely unclear. A major point of
contention was the question of how to codify possible financial contributions by developing
93 OECD (2015): “Climate finance in 2013-14 and the USD 100 billion goal”, a report by the
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in collaboration with Climate
Policy Initiative (CPI).
94 Paris climate talks: Indian officials accuse OECD of exaggerating climate aid,
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/02/paris-climate-talks-indian-officials-accuse-rich-
countries-of-exaggerating-climate-aid
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countries, which was demanded by developed countries but firmly opposed by India, China,
and a number of other developing countries. Developing countries for their part demanded
that industrialised countries should provide a clear roadmap for how they intended to fulfil the
USD 100 billion pledge, as well as firm commitments to increase the level of funding after
2020. They also demanded establishment of an iterative finance cycle to regularly evaluate
and upscale the provision of finance by developed countries. After unsuccessful negotiations
over the first week – the negotiation text still contained 107 bracketed passages and 18 op-
tions – finance was relegated to the ministerial level in the hopes that a decision could be
formed on a higher political level.
COP President Fabius announced that an indaba on support would be formed, with the fi-
nance high on the list of issues that needed to be resolved. On Thursday, 10 December, Par-
ties had managed to streamline the Agreement text down to only nine brackets, seven of
which would further specify and strengthen language on the provision of financial resources,
such as "predictable", "sustained", or "scaled-up", in the first paragraph.95 At that point, the
draft article on finance (then Article 6), still contained a clear reference to a progression from
the USD 100 billion mobilization goal of developed countries.
According to rumours in the corridors, more or less continuous informal negotiations took
place until Saturday afternoon, in order to find common ground on finance in the Paris
Agreement. The text finally provided to the public on Saturday, 12 December, at 13.30 (and
adopted without changes in the closing plenary of the COP) had lost all qualifiers to the pro-
vision of climate finance in its first paragraph. It now only stipulates that
"Developed country Parties shall provide financial resources to assist developing
country Parties with respect to both mitigation and adaptation in continuation of their
existing obligations under the Convention."96
The Paris Agreement also encourages other Parties to "provide or continue to provide such
support voluntarily".97 This poses no additional binding obligation on developing countries,
but recognises the growing level of South-South financial support and partly accommodates
developed countries’ desire to broaden the donor base.
The Agreement text has also lost a direct reference to the USD 100 billion mobilisation goal,
or, in fact, any language that would imply an obligation to scale up climate finance from cur-
rent levels. Financial obligations had been a clear red line for the USA, as this would have
required ratification by the US Congress. As Congress had made it abundantly clear that it
would decline any climate treaty, the USA would have been unable to join the Agreement.
Some clearer language could be retained in the text of the decision adopting the agreement. In
paragraph 54 of the COP decision, Parties decided that
95 See draft text issued 10 December, 2015, 21.30.
96 Paris Agreement, Advance unedited version, Art. 9.1.
97 Ibid., Art. 9.2.
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"developed countries intend to continue their existing collective mobilization goal
through 2025 [...]; prior to 2025 the [CMA] shall set a new collective quantified goal
from a floor of USD 100 billion per year..."98
With this, developed countries have committed themselves again to a (non-binding) finance
goal. But with the second half of the paragraph, it is now clear that the promised USD 100
billion per year cannot be the ceiling of finance commitment, but rather have to be a floor to
scale up from before 2025. However, the paragraph may prove to be a double-edged sword
for the coming negotiations, as the formulation of a "collective quantified goal" will once
more open up fights over financing commitments by at least the economically stronger devel-
oping countries.
The decision also urges developed countries to develop a “concrete roadmap” for achieving
the USD 100 billion pledge, and decides to conduct a facilitative dialogue at COP 22 in 2016
to assess progress and identify opportunities to enhance support.99
2.8.2 Technology
A crucial aspect to effective implementation of developing countries' nationally dermined
contributions is the access to technologies that make a shift away from fossil-based
infrastructures possible. While always recognized, the issue of technology development and
transfer had been out of the limelight of negotiations for some time, and had been relegated to
the work of the Subsidiary Bodies. Thus, the further development of the Convention's
Technology Mechanism, including the work of Technology Executive Committee (TEC), and
the development and operationalisation of the Climate Technology Centre and Network
(CTCN) had been of rather low profile in recent years.
It had been clear from earlier drafts of the text developed in the sessions of the ADP that the
Paris Agreement would contain provisions on technolgy development and transfer.100
However, at least in the early days of the Paris conference, the topic unexpectedly gained
some traction. A spin-off group on technology issues was created already on 29 November,
with Parties proposing numerous amendments and text options immediately. The LMDC
group proposed setting a goal for technology transfer by developed countries including
associated finance. Especially for India, this also meant provision of finance to overcome the
barriers of intellectual property rights (IPRs) of environmentally sound technologies. IPRs
had long been a controversial issue in the negotiations on technology cooperation. Developed
countries have always strongly opposed any reference to IPRs. The African group tabled a
bridging proposal on a technology framework under the Paris Agreement. While the proposal
was apparently met with general approval, many amendments were proposed and discussed.
In the end, it was agreed to forward the proposal in its original form.
98 Decision -/CP.21, Adoption of the Paris Agreement, Advance unedited version, para 54.
99 Ibid., paras 115f.
100 Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action, Second session, part eleven, 19-23
October 2015, Bonn, Germany: Draft agreement and draft decision on workstreams 1 and 2 of the Ad Hoc
Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action, Work of the ADP contact group, Version of
23 October 2015@23:30hrs, Draft Agreement Art. 7 and Draft Decision paras 48ff.
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Negotiations on technology transfer seem to have moved fairly quickly and without much
publicity in the second week. The text of 10 December had been cleaned of brackets and
options, and did not change in Article 10 of the final agreement text. As a main achievement
of developing countries, it establishes the above-mentioned technology framework in order to
provide guidance to the Technology Mechanism, which will now also serve the Paris
Agreement. The technology framework also serves to pursue the long-term vision of all
Parties set out in paragraph one of Art. 10, citing
"the importance of fully realizing technology development and transfer in order to
improve resilience to climate change and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions."101
The Paris decision requests the SBSTA to further define the technology framework starting at
its next session in May 2016. Topics that should be taken into account include undertaking
and updating technology needs assessments (TNAs) of developing countries, scaling-up of
technical and financial support for TNAs, assessing technologies that are "ready for transfer",
and the enhancement of enabling environments as well as the removal of barriers to
technology transfer.
Another success of developing countries is the establishment of a clear link between
technology and finance. As set out in paragraph five of Article 10, the acceleration,
encouragement, and enablement of innovation is not only to be supported through the
Technology Mechanism, but also through financial means by the Financial Mechanism of the
Convention.102 This link to the Financial Mechanism had been a matter of debate between
developing and developed countries for a long time.
IPRs predictably do not appear in the Agreement text. The mention of IPRs has always been a
red line issue especially for the US, and it cannot be expected that this will change in the
future. However, the link between technology and finance at least acknowledges that finance
could be needed for the acquisition of copy-righted technologies. If this will be sufficient to
close the chapter on IPRs again remains to be seen.
The decision text decides to further strengthen the Technology Mechanism, and reiterates that
its institutions (i.e. TEC and CTCN) shall report to the future CMA. There will now be a
periodic assessment of the Technology Mechanism's effectiveness in supporting the
implemetation of the Paris Agreement. The Subsidiary Body for Implementation is tasked to
elaborate scope and modalities for this assessment, starting at its next session.103
2.8.3 Capacity Building
Capacity building had in the past been another low-profile element of the UN climate
regime's support structure. While industrialized countries had always recognized capacity
building to be an essential element especially for least developed countries, developing coun-
tries had never managed to bring the issue on top of the agenda. Consistent progress had been
made over the last years, with the Durban Forum on Capacity-Building, a multi-stakeholder
forum for sharing ideas and lessons learned, being the most visible outcome in 2011.
101 Paris Agreement, Advance unedited version, Art. 10, para 1.
102 Ibid., Art. 10.5.
103 Decision -/CP.21, Adoption of the Paris Agreement, Advance unedited version, paras 66-71.
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The Paris Agreement recognizes the importance of the issue, but the text of the Agreement
itself is relatively weak and non-binding. However, the accompanying decision text holds a
negotiation success for developing countries: the Paris Committee on Capacity-building is
created, with an aim to
"address gaps and needs, both current and emerging, in implementing capacity-
building in developing country Parties and further enhancing capacity-building efforts,
including with regard to coherence and coordination in capacity-building activities un-
der the Convention.”104
The Committee will follow a work plan in the period of 2016-2020, with a number of differ-
ent issues related to the existing capacity building framework under the Convention, as well
as capacity gaps that should be addressed by Parties. Each year, the Committee will focus on
a special topic, and hold annual in-session meetings where these areas can be addressed. The
SBI is tasked to develop terms of reference for the newly-established body to be approved by
COP 22 in 2016.
2.9 Three Elements for Increasing Ambition over Time
Since the achievement of the contributions is not mandatory (see section 2.4, above), the Paris
agreement relies on three elements that provide transparency and create political moments
that impose a threat of high political costs for those Parties that do not keep up with their
pledges: through periodic global stocktakes, through a robust transparency framework, and
through a facilitative compliance mechanism.
2.9.1 Global Stocktake and Contribution Cycle
One of the central questions of the negotiation process was whether or not Parties’ contribu-
tions should be assessed internationally before adoption. Back in Lima, 2014 at COP 20, Par-
ties could not agree to such an international ex-ante assessment. In particular the LMDCs had
rejected any international assessment of developing countries’ intended contributions, citing
reasons of sovereignty. Before Paris, there was therefore only a technical paper by the Secre-
tariat assessing the global aggregate level of mitigation ambition of the INDCs, but no discus-
sion of individual INDCs. The question therefore was whether there should be an internation-
al assessment post-Paris, and when such a process should start, in particular whether it would
already apply to the first implementation period of the agreement.
A related question was the frequency of contribution cycles. Many INDCs have 2030 as target
date, some have 2025, and some have yet other dates. The question was therefore whether and
how quickly countries, in particular those with 2030 and later target dates, would need to re-
consider their contributions in the next years. Given the low level of ambition of most INDCs,
establishing no process to reconsider them would have put the temperature limit out of reach
for once and all.
104 Ibid., para 72.
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A group of countries including the African Group, AILAC, Brazil, the EU, Indonesia, Mexi-
co, the Philippines, SIDS and the USA strongly supported the establishment of an “ambition
mechanism” to regularly review and strengthen contributions every five years. By contrast,
the LMDCs again rejected ex-ante reviews of contributions, five-yearly cycles and enshrining
an obligation to strengthen contributions as result of such a process.
Agreement was made possible by broadening the scope of the cycle to include not only miti-
gation but also adaptation and provision of support.105 This provision meets the demand of in
particular the LMDCs that mitigation ambition and the provision of support need to be con-
sidered in tandem. Parties thus agreed that contributions shall be communicated every five
years. The CMA shall periodically take stock of the implementation of the agreement to as-
sess the collective progress. The stocktake is to be comprehensive, including “mitigation, ad-
aptation, means of implementation and support, and in the light of equity and the best availa-
ble science.“ This “global stocktake” is to take place in 2023 and every five years thereafter.
The outcome of the stocktake is to “inform” Parties in updating and enhancing their actions
and support.106
The 2023 date for the first stocktake is due to the fact that the agreement’s provisions can
only become effective once the agreement enters into force, which will probably take several
years. To jumpstart the five-year cycle, the accompanying COP decision therefore provides
for a “facilitative dialogue among Parties in 2018 to take stock of the collective efforts (...)
and to inform the preparation of nationally determined contributions”.107 In conjunction with
this initial stocktake, the IPCC is invited to provide a special report on the impacts of global
warming of 1.5°C and related global emission pathways in 2018.108 Finally, Parties whose
contributions contain a time frame up to 2025 are to communicate a new contribution by 2020
and every five years thereafter, while Parties whose contributions have a time frame up to
2030 are to “communicate or update” these contributions by 2020 and every five years there-
after.109
2.9.2 Transparency Framework
Differentiation between developing and developed countries was the core controversy in the
negotiations on how to track whether Parties are implementing their contributions. So far,
reporting and review provisions have differed substantially between the two groups. Indus-
trialised countries and AILAC demanded to move towards a common framework that would
generally be applicable to all, but with flexibility on the timing and detail in the reporting re-
flecting different capacities, and with support to developing countries. By contrast, many de-
veloping countries highlighted their low technical capacity and therefore opposed a “one size
fits all approach” and demanded to keep a clear differentiation between developed and devel-
oping countries. They also argued that a new system with increased requirements for
105 Bals, C., S. Kreft, L. Weischer (2016): Wendepunkt auf dem Weg in eine neue Epoche der globalen Klima-
und Energiepolitik. Die Ergebnisse des Pariser Klimagipfels COP 21. Bonn/Berlin: Germanwatch.
https://germanwatch.org/de/11492
106 Paris Agreement, Advance unedited version, Art. 14.
107 Decision -/CP.21, Adoption of the Paris Agreement, Advance unedited version, para 20.
108 Ibid., para 21.
109 Ibid., paras 23f.
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developing countries had been agreed only five years earlier in Cancún110 but not yet been
made operational, and that therefore this system should first be implemented before moving to
a new system.
The final agreement makes no fundamental distinction between developed and developing
countries and provides that all Parties shall account for their contributions.111 Detailed guid-
ance is to be developed in the coming years, which is to make sure that Parties account for
their contributions in accordance with methodologies and common metrics assessed by the
IPCC, ensure methodological consistency, and strive to include all categories of emissions or
removals. This guidance is to be applied to the second and following contributions under the
Paris Agreement; Parties may individually decide to also apply the guidance to their first con-
tributions.112
The agreement also establishes an “enhanced transparency framework for action and support,
with built-in flexibility which takes into account Parties’ different capacities”.113 The aim of
the framework for transparency of action is “to provide a clear understanding” of climate ac-
tion, and to track progress. The aim of the framework for transparency of support is “to pro-
vide clarity on support provided and received”, and to as much as possible provide an over-
view of aggregate financial support. The transparency framework also is to inform the global
stocktake.114
The framework “shall provide flexibility in the implementation of the provisions of this Arti-
cle to those developing country Parties that need it in the light of their capacities.”115 The
framework is to build on the existing reporting and review arrangements under the Conven-
tion and is to “be implemented in a facilitative, non-intrusive, non-punitive manner, respectful
of national sovereignty, and avoid placing undue burden on Parties”.116
In detail, Parties shall regularly provide national greenhouse gas inventories prepared by us-
ing IPCC good practice guidance as well as information necessary to track progress made in
implementing and achieving contributions.117 Except for SIDS and LDCs, all Parties are re-
quired to submit this information at least every two years.118 To support developing countries
in complying with the Agreement’s transparency provisions, the implementing decision estab-
lishes a “Capacity-building Initiative for Transparency”, to be supported by the Global Envi-
ronment Facility.119
110 See Sterk, W., C. Arens, U. Eichhorst, F. Mersmann, H. Wang-Helmreich (2011): Processed, Refried – Little
Substance Added. Cancún Climate Conference Keeps United Nations Process Alive but Raises more
Questions than It Answers. Wuppertal: Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment, Energy.
http://wupperinst.org/en/publications/details/wi/a/s/ad/1359/
111 Paris Agreement, Advance unedited version, Art. 4.13.
112 Decision -/CP.21, Adoption of the Paris Agreement, Advance unedited version, paras 31f.
113 Paris Agreement, Advance unedited version, Art. 13.1.
114 Ibid., Art. 13.5f.
115 Ibid., Art. 13.2.
116 Ibid., Art. 13.3.
117 Ibid., Art. 13.7.
118 Decision -/CP.21, Adoption of the Paris Agreement, Advance unedited version, para 91.
119 Ibid., paras 85-89.
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The transparency framework also requires developed country Parties to report on support pro-
vided – in financial, technology and capacity building terms. Developing country Parties
providing support "should" do the same, but are not bound by the Agreement. 120 In addition,
Parties should provide information on climate impacts and adaptation.121
The information provided by Parties will be subject to a technical expert review, which is to
consider support provided and achievement of the contributions. The review is also supposed
to identify areas of improvement and to review the consistency of the information provided
with the requirements. In addition, Parties shall participate in a “facilitative, multilateral con-
sideration of progress”. The detailed modalities and procedures for the transparency frame-
work are to be agreed in the following years.122 They are to build on an eventually supersede
the measurement, reporting and verification system established by the Cancún Agreements
and subsequent decisions.123
2.9.3 Facilitative Compliance Mechanism
Finally, the Agreement establishes a “mechanism to facilitate implementation of and promote
compliance with“ its provisions. The mechanism will consist of a committee of twelve scien-
tific, technical, socio-economic, or legal experts to be elected by the CMA on the basis of
equitable geographical representation.124 The mandate of the compliance committee has been
described with the same language as the transparency framework, namely it shall be “facilita-
tive in nature and function in a manner that is transparent, non-adversarial and non-punitive”,
and “shall pay particular attention to the respective national capabilities and circumstances of
Parties”. The outcome of the MRV process will trigger the review by the committee estab-
lished under the agreement to address implementation questions and promote compliance in a
facilitative and transparent way. Detailed modalities are to be developed, including the ques-
tion how and when exactly a review by the compliance committee is triggered.125
2.10 Increasing Short-term Ambition
2.10.1 Technical Examination Processes
In Durban, developing countries had agreed to embark on the negotiation process for the Paris
Agreement under the condition that a second stream of negotiations was initiated with the aim
to increase the near-term (pre-2020) ambition of mitigation activities, particularly by devel-
oped countries. Developing countries intended that Workstream 2 (WS2) of the ADP would
put pressure on developed countries: to swiftly ratify their Cancún pledges and their second
commitment period Kyoto obligations, and to ramp them up even further. However, it quickly
became apparent that the previously agreed emission reductions were hard-wired and devel-
oped countries were reluctant to further increase their obligations. Instead the focus of the
negotiations under WS2 shifted towards identifying policy options and technical solutions for
implementation, rather than strengthening of headline targets. Furthermore, the process put a
120 Paris Agreement, Advance unedited version, Art. 13.9.
121 Ibid., Art. 13.8.
122 Paris Agreement, Advance unedited version, Art. 13.11-13.13.
123 Decision -/CP.21, Adoption of the Paris Agreement, Advance unedited version, para 99.
124 Ibid., paras 103f.
125 Paris Agreement, Advance unedited version, Art. 15.
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focus on non-party actors as agents of increased mitigation ambition. The hope has been that
promoting action “on the ground” could lead to overachievement of the pledges, thus closing
the ambition gap in actual terms.126
Precisely because of this shift in focus, WS2 was a ray of light in an otherwise dim confer-
ence in Lima. Parties had engaged in constructive discussions in the form of Technical Expert
Meetings and agreed to extend this technical examination process until 2020. During 2015 the
negotiation process continued in the same constructive spirit. The various intersessional meet-
ings of the ADP made substantial progress and Parties arrived in Paris already with a very
well prepared set of draft conclusions on the matter. Hence, little conflict emerged from the
negotiations under WS2 in Paris.
In Paris, Parties agreed to house the technical examination process (TEP) under the joint aus-
pices of SBI and SBSTA and to strengthen it by, inter alia, requesting the Technology Execu-
tive Committee (TEC) and the Climate Technology Centre and Network (CTCN) to engage in
the process and enhance their facilitative efforts. Also, Parties encouraged the Green Climate
Fund (GCF) as operating entity of the Financial Mechanism to engage in the process and to
provide information with respect to its contribution to the implementation of policies and
measures identified in the TEP. The most important result of the Paris decisions is a very
strong mandate for the Secretariat to organize the process and disseminate its results. The
Secretariat shall:
• organize focussed technical expert meetings representing best practices that are repli-
cable and scalable;
• maintain a technical paper on mitigation benefits and wider sustainable development
co-benefits of the presented mitigation activities, as well as options to support their
implementation;
• and prepare on an annual basis a summary for policy makers with information on spe-
cific policies and practices and options for support for implementation. The summary
for policy makers is to be published two months ahead of each COP.127
This mandate will almost certainly contribute to making good practices and lessons learned as
well as opportunities to implement successful policies and practices much more digestible for
those interested in implementing similar measures. It will also likely increase the visibility
beyond the international climate policy community.
Only two issues were discussed somewhat more controversially: [1] whether or not a para-
graph regarding enhanced provisions of financial support should enter the decision text, and
[2] whether or not a TEP should also be established with respect to adaptation. Developed
countries were reluctant to include both. On [1] developed countries did not accept to “scale
126 See also Ott, H. E., W. Obergassel, C. Arens, L. Hermwille, F. Mersmann, H. Wang-Helmreich (2014):
Climate Policy: Road Works and New Horizons – An Assessment of the UNFCCC Process from Limat to
Paris and beyond. Environmental Liabilty, 22(6).
http://wupperinst.org/uploads/tx_wupperinst/Post_Lima_Pre_Paris.pdf
127 Decision -/CP.21, Adoption of the Paris Agreement, Advance unedited version, paras 110f.
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up their level of financial support, with a concrete roadmap to achieve the goal of jointly
providing USD 100 billion annually by 2020” as included in an earlier negotiation draft text.
Instead, Parties only agreed to conduct a facilitative dialogue at the next COP to identify op-
portunities for enhanced financial support. For [2] developed countries hesitated to establish
another institution under the UNFCCC, notably because WS2 was originally designated only
to mitigation. Ultimately, developed countries conceded and an adaptation TEP was estab-
lished (see also section 2.6).
2.10.2 Lima - Paris Action Agenda
The Lima-Paris Action Agenda was initiated one year before Paris, at COP20 in Lima. With
this initiative, Peru and France as the presidencies of two successive COPs pursued the aim to
link the myriad of activities by non-state actors with the diplomatic process. This proved to be
successful and found its culmination in two developments at COP21 in Paris: First, India
announced the formation of an International Solar Alliance involving more than 120
countries. Second, a group around Bill Gates announced a “Breakthrough Energy Coalition”
that will invest billions of dollars in "patient, flexible risk capital" to bring riskier new
technologies to market. All in all, around 700 major cities, regions, companies and investors
from all continents promised to help implement the Paris Agreement and accelerate the
transformative changes needed to meet the climate change challenge.128 The Non-State Actor
Zone for Climate Action (NAZCA) portal, maintained by the UNFCCC Secretariat, gathers
initiatives and activities from several hundred civil society actors.129
In Paris, the Parties initiated a facilitative dialogue that will assess progress in the pre-2020
implementation at the next COP. Each COP from 2016-2020 will furthermore be coupled
with a high-level event.130 Two “high-level champions” will be appointed for overlapping two
year terms. The champions are supposed to raise the ambition, to facilitate high-level en-
gagement in the process and provide guidance to the Secretariat on behalf of the COP Presi-
dencies. The first champion is yet to be appointed by the French COP Presidency.
These decisions help creating opportunites to communicate new initiatives with a high
visibility. While it is hard to tell whether or not the possibility to showcase initiatives actually
contributes to an increased level of ambition, it is still a welcome form of recognition and
brings the positive dynamics happening on the ground closer to the international multilateral
negotiation process. In Paris, the Lima-Paris Action Agenda (LPAA) was still somewhat
detached from the core negotiations. The housing of the TEPs under SBI/SBSTA may
contribute to a further integration of non-party actors and initiatives with the UNFCCC
negotiations.
128 L’Appel de Paris (Paris Pledge for Action): http://newsroom.unfccc.int/unfccc-newsroom/paris-pledge/
129 NAZCA: Non-State Actor Zone for Climate Action, http://climateaction.unfccc.int/aboutlpaa.aspx
130 Decision -/CP.21, Adoption of the Paris Agreement, Advance unedited version, para. 121.
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3 Assessment: The Stage Is Set, Waiting for More
Action
When the final gavel fell in the evening of 12 December 2015 and the Paris Agreement was
adopted, the Plenary Hall was for a seemingly endless time filled with thunderous applause
and cheers that created an atmosphere like in a rock concert. While this eruption was certainly
in part a practical way of ensuring that no objections of any kind were heard until it was too
late, it was also the result of a very genuine collective feeling of relief and joy. Many thou-
sands of diplomats, NGOs and other activists had spent six years after the disaster in Copen-
hagen to successfully rebuild a global process for the fight against climate change. This had
required endless meetings over many years in many parts of the world, absorbed enormous
intellectual and emotional resources and had led to long absences from families and friends.
All this prepared the collective eruption on this evening of 12 December 2015.
The relief, to be sure, concerned not only the concrete result, the Paris Agreement, but equally
the fact that the international community appeared to be able to tackle global problems suc-
cessfully. 12 December 2015 in this sense marked not only the rising from the ashes of cli-
mate policy, but of environmental policy and multilateral governance in general. This is no
small achievement. Taken together with the fact that the Paris Agreement represented the up-
per end of the range of possible outcomes, Paris can be considered a success. The conditions
for achieving this result and the lights and shadows of the agreement will be explored in the
final section of this article.
3.1 Assessing the Paris Outcome: The Benchmark for Success
While the Paris Agreement may easily be criticised for setting ambitious objectives but failing
to actually deliver,131 any assessment of the Paris Agreements needs to be based on an under-
standing of what international processes can actually deliver.132 Diplomacy does not happen
in a vacuum. The positions countries take internationally are determined by their domestic
political situations. International negotiations can therefore rarely take decisions that have not
previously been prepared nationally. As countries are sovereign, that is, they have nobody
above to them to enforce rules, international agreements can only go as far as what countries
are prepared to do.
And the current situation is that in most key countries there is as yet no appetite to undergo
the fundamental economic and ecologic transformation that is necessary. Energy provision
and transport are dominated by strong incumbent industries whose business models rely on
using fossil fuels, and combating climate change basically requires to end these business
131 See e.g. Paris climate deal: the trouble with targetism, http://www.theguardian.com/science/political-
science/2015/dec/14/the-trouble-with-targetism
132 Hermwille, L., W. Obergassel, H. E. Ott, C. Beuermann (2015): UNFCCC before and after Paris – what’s
necessary for an effective climate regime? Climate Policy, 1–21.
http://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2015.1115231
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models. The political influence of these groups is illustrated by the lavish amounts of fossil
fuel subsidies, roughly USD 550 billions (in 2013), according to the International Energy
Agency (IEA).133 Back in 2009, the Group of Twenty (G20) already committed to phase out
“inefficient” fossil fuel subsidies, however, little has been achieved. A recent report estimates
that G20 countries collectively provide national subsidies to fossil fuel production alone
through direct spending and tax breaks to the amount of USD 78 billion.134 This money is
used to further explore and develop fossil fuel reserves at a time where it is clear that at least
30% of oil reserves, 50% of gas reserves and over 80% of current coal reserves need to stay in
the ground.135
Changes in national politics and policies will therefore be a prerequisite for, rather than a con-
sequence of, the development of an effective international regime. The role the international
climate process can in the meantime play is to serve as a key catalyst for these national dis-
cussions by keeping the issue on the agenda and forcing national policy makers to continuous-
ly revisit it.
And there is evidence that the UNFCCC does indeed fulfil this catalytic function. While
Copenhagen failed to deliver the anticipated climate treaty, the summit was not without
successes if seen in a broader context. The deadline imposed by the Copenhagen conference
injected a significant momentum into national discussions as all countries were forced to
make up their minds what their contribution to the agreement was going to be. Up till rather
shortly before the conference there was little reason to expect that countries like China and
India would submit emission targets, but ultimately they did.136 Subsequently, the momentum
generated by the Copenhagen process resulted in a substantial increase in national climate
legislation.137 And there already is evidence that the Paris process is having the same result. A
recent study found that the preparation of INDCs has resulted in impacts such as initiating
long term planning processes, advancing climate change on political agendas, and developing
in-country technical capacities.138
The Paris Agreement was never going to deliver the emission reductions necessary for keep-
ing global warming below 2 °C – it never could, given the current political realities in the
major emitting countries. The question is whether the agreement has the potential to catalyse
133 IEA (2014): World Energy Outlook - Energy Subsidies.
http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/resources/energysubsidies/
134 Bast, E., A. Doukas, S. Pickard, L. van der Burg, S. Whitley, S. (2015): Empty Promises – G20 subsidies to
oil gas and coal production. London and Washington, DC: Overseas Deveopment Institute / Oil Change
International.
135 McGlade, C., P, Ekins (2015): The geographical distribution of fossil fuels unused when limiting global
warming to 2 °C. Nature, 517(7533), 187–190. http://doi.org/10.1038/nature14016
136 Sterk, W., C. Arens, N. Kreibich, F. Mersmann, T. Wehnert (2012): Sands Are Running Out for Climate
Protection. The Doha Climate Conference Once Again Saves the UN Climate Process While Real Climate
Action Is Shelved for Later. Wuppertal: Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy.
http://epub.wupperinst.org/frontdoor/index/index/docId/4673
137 Dubash, N. K., M. Hagemann, N. Höhne, P. Upadhyaya (2013): Developments in national climate change
mitigation legislation and strategy. Climate Policy, 13(6), 649–664; Fankhauser, S., Gennaioli, C., and
Collins, M. (2015). Do international factors influence the passage of climate change legislation? Climate
Policy, 0(0), 1–14. doi:10.1080/14693062.2014.1000814
138 Day, T., F. Röser, R. Tewari, M. Kurdziel, N. Höhne (2015): Preparation of Intended Nationally Determined
Contributions (INDCs) as a catalyst for national climate action. NewClimate Institute and GIZ.
http://mitigationpartnership.net/sites/default/files/indc_as_catalyst.pdf
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changes of these national political realities, whether it becomes a pacemaker for policy pro-
cess, not only at the international level, but also in the capitals of the world.
3.2 Differentiation: An Agreement Applicable to All
After 25 years of UN climate diplomacy, the world's governments have for the first time in
history negotiated a treaty which envisages climate action by all nations. This concludes the
decades-long struggle on the participation of the US and of developing countries in the cli-
mate regime and bridges the deep schism, the dichotomous division of the world into "indus-
trialized" and "non-industrialized" states by the UNFCCC, cemented for nearly 20 years
through the Kyoto Protocol. The world has changed since the 1990s, and some countries that
have previously been economically weak have since risen to become large emitters. Develop-
ing countries deserve high praise for agreeing to end this dichotomy, despite the fact that
many industrialized countries have not shown a large degree of leadership in fighting climate
change. By doing so, developing countries have accepted that the fight against climate change
is a common global task, albeit with common but differentiated responsibilities. Inscribing
this common endeavour in the Paris Agreement must be seen as a major success of the Paris
summit.
Differentiation between the two blocks is still present in the new agreement, but in much
more attenuated form than previously. While the agreement echoes the Convention’s princi-
ples of equity and common but differentiated responsibilities, it adds “in the light of different
national circumstances”, allowing for a “dynamic” interpretation of CBDR-RC. Most provi-
sions establish common obligations for all countries, but require developed countries to con-
tinue taking the lead while expecting developing countries to step up over time:
• While all Parties are required to make contributions, they are nationally determined.
However, the Agreement does not enshrine total self-differentiation: Industrialized
countries are expected to undertake absolute greenhouse gas reductions, while devel-
oping countries are encouraged to move to economy-wide targets over time, and get
support in achieving their contributions. LDCS and SIDS are given discretion to sub-
mit only policies and measures.
• While the agreement aims to reach global peaking of emissions as soon as possible, it
recognises that peaking will take longer for developing countries.
• While developed countries “shall provide financial resources”, other countries are
“encouraged” to provide support “voluntarily”.
• While there is one common transparency framework, its detailed provisions are to ac-
count for differing national capacities and developing countries are to be provided
with capacity building.
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3.3 Ambitious Global Targets: Towards Decarbonisation?
The new agreement may not ensure that each country progresses at the same speed, but it
does make sure that everybody turns to the right direction. This direction is provided by the
long-term goal to keep global mean temperature rise "well below 2 °C", which was inscribed
prominently into Article 2 of the treaty. The temperature limit is thus not only enshrined in
international law, but also strengthened compared to the previous formulation. Furthermore,
the agreement contains the aim "to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C
above pre-industrial levels". Recent climate science has more and more underlined that the 2
°C limit is not a secure guardrail, but would in all likelihood mean severe damages from cli-
mate change. Anchoring the 1.5 °C limit in the agreement is an enormous negotiating victory
of the most vulnerable countries, small island states and least developed countries that until
recently seemed impossible.
The 2 °C threshold of the Copenhagen Accord and consequently the Cancún Agreements has
been widely interpreted as a goal to be “achieved”. This implies an economic cost-benefit
calculation in which the 2° C threshold marks the point at or around which the cost of abate-
ment of GHG emissions and the expected benefits of avoided cost through climate change
impacts are deemed to break even139. The sense of urgency of the 2 °C goal was never beyond
question to those familiar with mitigation scenario modelling exercises compiled by the
IPCC, but it may still have linguistically created a “comfort zone” and a sense of remaining
flexibility that was never justified. The ultimate objective of the Convention is to avoid dan-
gerous climate change; the Paris Agreement now posits that any global warming is dangerous.
Its Articles 2 and 4 and the related decisions require an interpretation of the 2 °C threshold as
a limit that must not be exceeded as opposed to a goal to be achieved. The newly formulated
long-term goal is thus not only a quantitative increase in the level of ambition. It implies a
qualitative shift: There really is no “comfort zone” and “too much” climate change mitigation
is never enough.
Moreover, Paris marks a significant step forward in further operationalizing the 2 °C limit.
Parties agreed that, firstly, greenhouse gas emissions need to peak “as soon as possible”, and,
secondly, that "a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks
of greenhouse gases in the second half of this century" (Art. 4). This formulation is not as
well suited as a new norm to guide the behaviour of actors as compared to some of the alter-
natives that had been on the negotiating table. For example a goal of full decarbonisation by a
fixed date would have provided a much less ambiguous mandate not only to nation states but
also to the private sector. However, from a climate science point of view, the actual formula-
tion is even more inclusive, as it also encompasses other greenhouse gases than CO2 and par-
ticularly the land-use sector. Given that it will probably not be possible to reduce emissions
from agriculture and some industrial processes to zero, the available sink capacity will be
needed to compensate for emissions from these sources, which means that all emissions that
can be reduced to zero need to be reduced to zero. The long-term goal as formulated in the
Paris Agreement is thus synonymous with a call to global decarbonisation before the end of
139 For a discussion of this see for example Grubb, M., J.-C. Hourcade, K. Neuhoff (2014): „Trapped?“. In:
Planetary Economics: Energy, Climate Change and the Three Domains of Sustainable Development (New.).
Routledge, pp. 1-45.
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the century, much earlier even in developed countries. This is the main message from Paris:
The age of fossil fuels is over.
The Paris Agreement will thus provide a strong legitimizing function for the growing civil
society movements against coal power plants, mines, pipelines and other infrastructure dam-
aging the global climate. Comparable to the Final Act of Helsinki that provided dissidents in
the former Soviet Bloc with a crucial reference for their work, opponents of fossil infrastruc-
tures can now point to the goals of the Paris Agreement to justify their activities.
3.4 National Contributions: Insufficient and Non-Binding
Political pressure from concerned citizens will be highly necessary as the emission reductions
countries have pledged under the Paris Agreement are widely out of line with its global tar-
gets. As in Copenhagen, it was not possible to have a top-down consideration of what each
country should contribute to the global goal. Instead, there was again an explicitly bottom-up
process where each country “nationally determined” the contribution it was going to submit.
There actually is some merit to this approach apart from being the only approach that was
acceptable to all Parties, as it allows to move away from the narrow-minded focus on GHG
emissions the UNFCCC has so far had. It is sub-complex to see climate change solely through
the lens of emissions as this frames climate change as an environmental problem. However, as
historically nearly all economic activity has been associated with GHG emissions, climate
change is fundamentally a development problem, much more than an environmental problem.
This is reflected in policy-makers’ frequent statements of concern about access to ‘carbon
space’ or ‘development space’.140 The national determination of contributions opens space for
policy-makers to better marry their climate change efforts with their national development
discourse and planning.
However, while the national determination of contributions was key to getting any contribu-
tions, their level of ambition leaves much to be desired. Since almost all countries’ INDCs
had been communicated before COP21, the projected impact on emissions was well-known
before the conference started. If implemented, the contributions will notably reduce emis-
sions. However, this will not be enough. Global mean temperature would most likely still
increase in the range of 2.7°C to 3.5°C. This shortfall was explicitly highlighted in the deci-
sion adopting the agreement, which “notes with concern” that the contributions “do not fall
within least-cost 2°C scenarios but rather lead to a projected level of 55 gigatonnes in 2030”,
while also noting that for a 2°C pathway 2030 emissions would need to be reduced to 40 giga-
tonnes.141
Furthermore, the actual achievement of contributions is not a legally binding obligation, the
Paris Agreement only commits each Party to “prepare, communicate and maintain successive
nationally determined contributions that it intends to achieve.” In addition, “Parties shall pur-
140 Hermwille, L., W. Obergassel, H.E. Ott, C. Beuermann (2015): UNFCCC before and after Paris – what’s
necessary for an effective climate regime? Climate Policy, pp. 1–21.
http://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2015.1115231; Moomaw, W., & Papa, M. (2012). Creating a mutual gains
climate regime through universal clean energy services. Climate Policy, 12(4), pp. 505–520.
141 Decision -/CP.21, Adoption of the Paris Agreement, Advance unedited version, para 17.
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sue domestic mitigation measures, with the aim of achieving the objectives of such contribu-
tions.” The Paris Agreement thus establishes legally binding obligations of conduct but not
obligations of result.142 That is, it commits countries to doing certain things but not to achiev-
ing certain things. It requires countries to notify a contribution and to take domestic measures
in pursuit of achieving the contribution. It also requires countries to report on the progress
they are making and to undergo an international review. But it does not establish a legally
binding obligation for countries to actually achieve their contributions. Correspondingly, the
mandate of the compliance mechanism is decidedly facilitative. This is the price that needed
to be paid to get the USA and the LMDCs on board.
Instead of binding commitments, the Paris Agreement relies on the instruments of ‘naming
and shaming’ to ensure implementation: creating a reputational risk through the establishment
of mandatory transparency and review provisions. And these provisions are substantially
more stringent than in particular the LMDCs would have liked.
Further along these lines, the contributions are to be housed in a registry, not inscribed in the
agreement itself. Inscription in the agreement could also have been an argument to require
ratification by the US Senate. While inscription in the agreement might arguably have given
the contributions higher standing, on the positive side the housing in a registry makes it easier
to revise them. In the Kyoto Protocol, the adoption of commitments for the second commit-
ment period has required a cumbersome negotiation and ratification process, which is current-
ly far from being completed. Revising contributions to the Paris Agreement is going to be
much easier, and according to its provisions, revisions may only strengthen, not weaken, con-
tributions.
As with the Kyoto Protocol, the basic design of the new treaty was essentially written in
Washington. Binding obligations to maintain a contribution and to be transparent about its
implementation, but no bindingness on content was the line the US delegation had propagated
all along.
3.5 Ratchet Mechanism: A Political Pacemaker to Strengthen Ambition
Given the lack of ambition of the contributions that have been notified, the effectiveness of
the Paris Agreement in limiting global warming depends on the quick strengthening of the
national contributions. Arguably the key question for the agreement was therefore whether it
would create further political moments to put pressure on countries to increase their ambition.
Some countries wanted the first evaluation of the agreement’s impact to take place in the late
2020s. With such a timeframe, the agreement’s potential to catalyse further ambition would
have been much reduced.
Instead, Parties ultimately agreed that a first stocktake of the global effort will take place al-
ready in 2018, with subsequent communication or updating of contributions. In 2018, public
attention will also be heightened by the IPCC, which is invited to submit a special report on
the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C and related global emission pathways. These mo-
142 Bodansky, D. (2012): The Durban Platform: Issues and Options for a 2015 Agreement. Arlington, VA: C2ES
Center for Climate and Energy Solutions.
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ments of stocktaking and subsequent submission of contributions will re-occur every five
years. Analyses immediately after Paris seem to indicate that an optimal use of the ratchet
mechanism would be sufficient to keep global mean temperatures below 2 °C. This would
imply, however, that Parties communicate strengthened contributions already before 2020 and
that they commit to longer term targets with substantial emission reductions.
Legally, however, the provisions are once again weak, in particular for the first cycle in 2018-
2020, which is governed by the decision adopting the agreement. There is no obligation for
countries to strengthen their contributions. The requirement is only to “communicate or up-
date” contributions. Furthermore, as before Paris, no international review of any kind is fore-
seen for the individual contributions. Nonetheless, the stocktake and subsequent “communica-
tion or updating” of contributions will mark another moment of concentrated political atten-
tion after Paris that may be used for fostering the dynamic of the process.
The legal language is more stringent for the subsequent cycles post-2020, which are governed
by the Agreement. Here, Parties agreed that each contribution will “represent a progression
beyond the Party’s then current nationally determined contribution”143 This is the core of a
new and innovative mechanism: compulsory strengthening of contributions every five years.
A piece of homework is to agree on common timeframes for contributions. Current contribu-
tions have varying timeframes, many have 2030 as target years, others have 2025, and several
have yet other dates. It would be highly recommendable to agree on five-year timeframe for
future contributions as further safeguard against locking in low ambition. Moreover, short
periods are more in line with most policy-makers political horizon. In politics, contributions
that need to be delivered in some far away future are quickly seen as somebody else’s prob-
lem.
While there is no legal obligations to strengthen the first round of contributions, the current
contributions are nonetheless not necessarily the last word, given the strengthening of the
temperature limit, the growing awareness of climate change impacts, and the growing dynam-
ics in renewable energy deployment and other solutions, which quickly renders previous goals
obsolete. The European Union, for example, has politically not been able to strengthen its
goal of 20% reductions compared to 1990 levels in 2020. At the same time, projections of the
European Environment Agency indicate that EU emissions will in fact have fallen by 24-25%
by 2020.144 Other estimates even point to a 30% reduction.145 Up to now, the climate regime
did not have a mechanism to confront states with such dynamics. The new mechanism of reg-
ular stocktakes will force countries to regularly justify the ambition level of their contribu-
tions. For the EU, this will mean heightened political pressure to strengthen its 2030 climate
goals.
In this perspective, the national determination of contributions and the lack of bindingness
was a step that needed to be taken in order to get moving at all. While this is certainly a drop
143 Paris Agreement, Advance unedited version, Art. 4.3.
144 Climate change: EU shows leadership ahead of Paris with 23% emissions cut,
http://www.eea.europa.eu/media/newsreleases/climate-change-eu-shows-leadership
145 Inflated CO2 Forecasts hide the fact that the EU is on track for 30% cuts by 2020.
https://sandbag.org.uk/site_media/pdfs/press_releases/Press_release_new_2020_forecast.pdf
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of bitterness in the otherwise rather successful agreement, legally binding obligations are usu-
ally only successful when accompanied by an effective enforcement system. The Kyoto Pro-
tocol’s compliance mechanism foresees that non-compliant countries must take on more am-
bitious obligations in subsequent commitment periods. This is not much of a threat given that
one country (Canada) withdrew from the Kyoto Protocol and other countries (Russia, New
Zealand, and Japan) did not take on any commitments at all in the second commitment period.
Ultimately, formal sanctions are only one means of international diplomacy to make countries
comply with their obligations. The other and sometimes equally effective one is the potential-
ly high political costs implied by non-compliance. The Paris Agreement with its five-year
cycles and its transparency framework (see section 5.7) periodically provides for political
moments, moments of public scrutiny at each of which policy makers risk high political costs,
if they cannot keep up with the contributions they formulated.
3.6 Transparency: Fine Print to Be Drafted
A crucial precondition for the success of the regular stocktakings will be that countries trans-
parently report the implementation of their contributions, and subject themselves to review.
The need for more transparency first of all relates to the contributions themselves. As in War-
saw, it was again not possible to agree on specific information requirements for the contribu-
tions that would allow to easily understand and evaluate them. Further guidance is to be de-
veloped in the coming years.
As for transparency on the implementation of contributions, the Paris Agreement for the first
time establishes a universal transparency system. While there previously had been separate
reporting and review systems for Annex I countries and non-Annex I countries, there will
now be only one system. Differentiation is still present, but no longer in the previous binary
fashion. Instead, developing countries are to be accorded flexibilities in light of their respec-
tive national capacities. Special rules have been maintained only for LDCs and SIDS. The
new system thus substantially increases the transparency requirements for mitigation actions
by developing countries. At the same time, the new system meets the demands of developing
countries by also including adaptation and requiring developed countries to increase transpar-
ency on their provision of support.
The price to pay for this increase in transparency has been to place a strong emphasis on facil-
itation rather than compliance. The system’s mandate is to be “non-intrusive” and “non-
punitive”. While the Kyoto Protocol has a compliance mechanism, the new agreement has a
“mechanism to facilitate implementation of and promote compliance with“ its provisions.
In addition, the accounting system will be mandatory only for the second round of contribu-
tions. As many countries have chosen 2030 as target date, this potentially delays the introduc-
tion of robust accounting quite substantially. Moreover, the devil will be in the details of the
transparency framework, which have yet to be fleshed out. In particular what the flexibilities
for developing countries are to look like in practice will likely be the subject of further heated
debate. Apart from increasing the level of mitigation ambition, the transparency framework
will be the most relevant field of work in the coming years.
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This is also true for transparency of support to developing countries. Industrialized states will
have to communicate volume and use of their financial contributions biennially, but here as
well the detailed modalities are still to be worked out. One genuinely new aspect in the trans-
parency framework established by the agreement is that developing countries should also re-
port on support needed, and also of support received. While there is no obligation to do so,
this has the potential to make the framework significantly more robust.146 In the past, there
had time and again been discussions about quantities of support received not matching claims
of developed countries of provision of support (see also section 2.8.1 on discussions between
developed and developing country Parties on reporting of financial flows). Matching data on
provision and receipt on a more continuous basis has the potential to relieve discord among
countries and, pave the way to a clearer picture about support flows in the future under the
Paris Agreement.
3.7 Promoting a Long-Term Perspective: New Horizons
Contrary to the Cancún Agreements, which only set one-off targets for 2020, the Paris
Agreement has open-ended durability. The prospect that efforts will be evaluated and new
contributions will need to be submitted every five years for an open-ended period of time has
the potential to promote taking a long-term outlook for the development of national policies
and investment decisions in line with the Agreement’s long-term goals.
The Paris Agreement also urges Parties to develop and communicate low greenhouse gas
emission development strategies in accordance with its long-term goal and the principle of
CBDR-RC. This exercise could further facilitate the anchoring of climate protection in all
government decisions. However, this provision so far lacks further operationalization. It
would therefore be helpful if progressive countries went forward with the communication of
such strategies as soon as possible. The Secretariat could be directed to create a public listing
and repository of strategies that have been communicated, to enhance the expectation that all
countries should follow up.
3.8 Finance: Vague Language
The agreement’s provisions on support for developing countries are weak. For an effective
support to the most vulnerable societies of this planet, notably least developed countries and
small island states, it will be indispensable to massively ramp up these contributions. The Par-
is Agreement only contains vague language concerning concrete financing contributions for
mitigation and adaptation in developing countries. Legal obligations of financing contribu-
tions in the Paris Agreement were sacrificed again to accommodate the United States’ interior
political constraints.
The accompanying decision text reiterates that the goal of annual USD 100 billion of North-
South financial flows in 2020 and beyond, promised already in Copenhagen, is still valid, and
will be ramped up before 2025. The USD 100 billion must therefore be the floor of financial
contributions. Until now, many industrialized countries regarded the pledge of Copenhagen
146 Paris Agreement, Advance unedited version, Art. 13.10.
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more as a ceiling. However, the coming negotiations will prove interesting, as the current
decision text does not specify who will contribute to the stronger financing goal, but only
speaks of setting "a new collective goal."
3.9 REDD+: What Future Role?
The fact that the Paris Agreement features a separate article on REDD+ can be considered a
clear political signal underscoring the future relevance of the concept. This must be seen es-
pecially in light of Art. 4, which introduces the concept of GHG emissions neutrality. In this
context, REDD+ activities might be used to assist countries in achieving their climate change
mitigation contributions.
It remains to be seen whether this potential use and the strengthening of the concept will pro-
vide sufficient confidence to trigger new REDD+ action on the ground and provide the sup-
port needed for activities that have already taken off. More specifically, with results-based
payments being explicitly mentioned in both the agreement text and the COP decision, there
is a risk that readiness activities, which are a precondition for undertaking results-based ac-
tivities, might be disregarded.
Furthermore, it remains to be seen which role forest activities might play under the newly
established cooperative approaches. Explicit language on REDD+ was removed from the text
but in paragraph 38 of the COP decision, which lists the principles on which the mechanism
established in Art. 6.4 of the Paris Agreement is to be built, wording has been modified from
“permanent” to “long-term”.147 This allows for the implementation of forestry activities under
the new mechanism, raising considerable concerns in particular among environmental NGOs,
who fear that fossil fuel emissions might in the future be offset by non permanent storage of
carbon in trees.
Another concern relates to potential adverse social and environmental effects of forestry ac-
tivities. In this context it should be noted that the Paris Agreement contains several elements
aimed at avoiding such impacts. These are covered in the preamble of the Agreement, where
Parties “recogniz[e] the fundamental priority of food security” and “not[e] the importance of
ensuring the integrity of all ecosystems […] and the protection of biodiversity”148. Parties
further agreed that they “should, when taking action to address climate change, respect, pro-
mote and consider their respective obligations on human rights”.149 Despite the fact that these
elements have been weakened due to their placement in the preamble and their wording, they
nevertheless underscore the relevance of already established safeguards and will hopefully
guide any future land-use activities under the Agreement.
147 Decision -/CP.21, Adoption of the Paris Agreement, Advance unedited version, para 38.
148 Paris Agreement, preamble (emphasis added).
149 Ibid.
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3.10 International Cooperative Approaches: What Basis for Market
Mechanisms?
Further work will also be required on the issue of market mechanisms. One fundamental
question is how the transfer of mitigation outcomes is to work given the huge variety of types
of contributions and the fact that there is no formal obligation to actually achieve them. The
Kyoto Protocol is at its core a cap and trade system. The Paris Agreement now also foresees
trade – but no caps. Most countries do not have absolute emission targets, which makes ac-
counting for transfers more challenging. Moreover, since the achievement of contributions is
not a legally binding obligation, the new agreement lacks the fundamental safeguard against
overselling which the Kyoto Protocol has in-built at its core. The guidance that is to be devel-
oped will therefore need to include ways to ensure that mitigation outcomes that are trans-
ferred have actually been achieved. As UNFCCC oversight of the cooperative approaches is
not foreseen, the only viable option seems to be to make achievement of contributions obliga-
tory for the Parties that participate in cooperative approaches. The cooperative approaches
could thus constitute a platform for frontrunner countries that are willing to be bound to actu-
ally achieving their contributions.
3.11 Loss and Damage: A New Pillar of Climate Policy
The Paris Agreement has not only laid a common base to strengthen mitigation, but also
strengthens efforts of adaptation to as well as loss and damage from inevitable climate
change. With a separate article on loss and damage (Art. 8), dealing with these impacts has
been established as a third column to climate action besides mitigation and adaptation. To
recognise this had been a central concern of the most vulnerable countries. Due to resistance
by a number of industrialized countries, however, its establishment has only been possible by
anchoring a clause in the decision text which precludes the use of these provisions as a basis
for liability and compensation claims. Since the clause is not contained in the agreement itself
but in the accompanying COP decisions, it might be changed more easily than any of the ele-
ments contained in the agreement. The legal implications of this are however still to be seen
and the clause can be expected to nevertheless guide any future interpretation of the concept.
3.12 Adaptation: Strengthened Role
The Paris Agreement has placed greater importance on national as well as global action to
help people to adapt to climate change impacts than ever before. This can be considered a
huge success for developing country Parties. While the Agreement furthers the participation
of all countries in adaptation activities and sets the global goal to enhance adaptive capacity,
strengthen resilience and reduce vulnerability to climate change, it also acknowledges that
global needs for adaptation highly depend on the success of mitigation activities.150, 151 This
link to the temperature goal is very important as it stresses the two issues’ dependence on one
another.
150 Ibid., Art. 7.1.
151 Ibid., Art. 7.4.
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To provide countries with opportunities to review the overall progress made in achieving the
global goal on adaptation and to spiral up adaptation action and support, action on adaptation
is to be reviewed and accelerated every five years in parallel to the contribution cycles for
mitigation. The main drop of bitterness regarding adaptation in Paris was that though the need
for substantial adaptation finance has been recognized in the Paris Agreement, it does not
include a collective, quantified goal for adaptation finance. This had been an important
demand of developing country Parties.
4 Outlook: Next Steps on a Long Journey towards
Decarbonisation
4.1 The Return of Environmental Multilateralism
The Copenhagen conference was deemed a “diplomatic disaster”152 and in the aftermath many
doubted whether the multilateral process under the UNFCCC could be effective at all in lev-
eraging international climate cooperation. The Cancún Agreements demonstrated that Parties
were willing to continue meaningful negotiations. Still, progress was painstakingly slow and
frustrated many observers. In his speech to the delegates the morning before the final negotia-
tion draft was published COP President Laurent Fabius highlighted153: “Nobody here wants to
see a repeat of Copenhagen, a Copenhagen that would no doubt be more polished, but which
would ultimately be much more destructive. [...] if, today, we were so misfortunate as to fail,
how could we rebuild hope? Confidence in the very ability of the concert of nations to make
progress on climate issues would be forever shaken.“
In this vein, Paris was probably the last chance for environmental multilateralism to
demonstrate its ability to deliver meaningful results. While the Paris Agreement is far from
perfect and little has been achieved in the process of transforming unsustainable socio-
economic systems into sustainable ones, it still has exceeded the expectations of most
observers. It demonstrated that the UNFCCC can be a transition arena in which all relevant
actors can engage in developing common strategies to mitigate climate change. And that these
strategies can take a legal form that satisfies both the demands of the international community
and the constitutional and political peculiarities of the USA – not foreseen in the Convention
but nevertheless a treaty under international law. This in itself is an important achievement of
the Paris talks.
152 Grubb, M. (2010): Copenhagen: back to the future. Climate Policy, 10(2), pp. 127–130.
153 COP21 - Plenary session for the submission of the final draft text - Speech by Laurent Fabius (12 December
2015), http://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/en/french-foreign-policy/climate/events/article/cop21-plenary-session-
for-the-submission-of-the-final-draft-text-speech-by
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4.2 Cultivating Coalitions
This success was to a large extend forged by the “high ambition coalition” that was formed by
the European Union and a group of originally 79 developing countries from Africa, the
Caribbean and Pacific countries. It was devised and brought together in Summer 2015 by the
charismatic Foreign Minister of the Marshall Islands, Tony de Brum. This group enlarged
during the two weeks of the negotiations – already at the time of the announcement the USA
declared to be part of it and when Brazil declared that it would also join in the last days of the
COP it was clear that this was a winning coalition. In the final hours of COP21, this group,
with de Brum and the EU Commissioner Miguel Arias Cañete at its core, walked arm in arm
into the plenary and were greeted with strong applause – a strong signal right before the
beginning of the final plenary that paved the way for the gavel of COP President Laurent
Fabius.
Climate policy in the coming years would greatly benefit from the continuing coalition be-
tween ambitious developing nations and the EU, both inside and outside of the UNFCCC, the
Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement. Several times already this group, formerly known as
the “Green Group” has rescued the diplomatic process and secured that the global climate
regime could function.154 However, this alliance has usually broken up after such rescue oper-
ations. This time the coalition might stick together, mindful of the fact that the Paris Agree-
ment is just the kick-off for a long strive towards a truly effective agreement.
Inside the UN climate regime, such a coalition could help drive the much-needed develop-
ment of transparency rules, and ensure a quick entry into force of the Paris Agreement. There
are numerous clauses in the treaty and the accompanying decision that require clarification or
further specification. As the analysis of the contributions has shown, a quick sharpening al-
ready by 2018 would be necessary if the endeavour to stay well below 2°C is supposed to
succeed. This will require continued pressure from a high profile group with negotiation clout
– which the “high ambition coalition” would represent. But also the further development of
the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol would greatly benefit from a strong coalition with high
ambition.
Outside the UNFCCC framework, a pioneer decarbonisation alliance could sharpen the cur-
rently insufficient commitments of states, take up the Paris momentum und develop fresh dy-
namics for international climate policy. One of the main obstacles for a quick evolution of the
regime155 has not been touched by the negotiators in Paris: the consensus principle. Article
16.5 of the Paris Agreement stipulates that the Rules of Procedure of the Convention “shall be
applied mutatis mutandis under this Agreement, except as may be otherwise decided by con-
sensus by the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris
Agreement”. There is thus a chance that the first CMA adopts Rules of Procedure that deviate
from the usual consensus rule. The chances are low, however, because the threshold for the
154 E.g. at COP1 in Berlin, see Oberthür, S., H. E. Ott (1999): The Kyoto Protocol. International Climate Policy
for the 21st Century. Berlin/Heidelberg et al.: Springer Verlag, pp.46 et seq.
155 Ott, H. E., W. Obergassel, C. Arens, L. Hermwille, F. Mersmann, H. Wang-Helmreich (2014): Climate
Policy: Road Works and New Horizons – An Assessment of the UNFCCC Process from Limat to Paris and
beyond. Environmental Liability, 22(6), pp.223-238, p.235ff.
http://wupperinst.org/uploads/tx_wupperinst/Post_Lima_Pre_Paris.pdf
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entry into force means that the USA and China will be part of it – and they are not known to
favour majority voting rules.
As observed earlier, the consensual approach might be the most appropriate form of develop-
ment for a global, universal process.156 It does, however, prevent the more ambitious players
from a faster common evolution of their climate protection efforts. This can best be done out-
side of the UN regime and thus might present a chance for the core of the High Ambition Co-
alition between the EU and developing countries to cooperate in the framework of a pioneer’s
decarbonisation alliance. The European Union might thus initiate a diplomatic effort to keep
the high ambition coalition together, as an informal negotiating group in the context of the
UNFCCC, the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement and as a pressure group outside of the
negotiations. It might even be successful in keeping the coalition together as it stood at the
end, including the US and Brazil.
4.3 What Role for Non-Party Actors?
As stated above, the Paris Agreement does not “resolve” climate change as an environmental
problem, but it creates periodic political moments. It deploys a pacemaker for a “political
heartbeat” that can bring about the required transformation. Time will tell whether the dynam-
ic unfolded in Paris can be transferred from the international level to other levels. It is certain
that this will not happen automatically. Actors from all political levels need to breathe life
into the political moments that the PA creates. Non-state actors, cities, and regions can and
must play an important role in leveraging climate action through the multi-level governance
system.
In the slipstream of the Paris Agreement, this year’s COP created a space which could provide
a space to link more closely various types of transnational governance with the UNFCCC
negotiation process. Under the agenda item for increasing the near-term ambition, formally
known as ADP Workstream 2, a strong mandate was provided to the Secretariat to organize in
a constructive manner Technical Examination Processes both for mitigation as well as adapta-
tion. For mitigation this process has already proven fruitful in the last two years. With the
more focused mandate it will likely be even improved. The mandate to produce technical re-
ports that synthesise the work of the TEP and summaries for policy makers will almost cer-
tainly contribute to making good practices and lessons learned as well as opportunities to im-
plement successful policies and practices much more digestible for those interested in imple-
menting similar measures. It will also likely increase the visibility of such initiatives beyond
the international climate policy community.
Currently, this process is linked exclusively to the increase of pre-2020 ambition. Clearly, the
role of non-party actors extends beyond that. After 2020 the TEPs should therefore continue
and be established permanently to complement the Paris Agreement.
156 Hermwille, L., W. Obergassel, H. E. Ott, C. Beuermann (2015): UNFCCC before and after Paris – what’s
necessary for an effective climate regime? Climate Policy, pp. 1–21.
http://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2015.1115231
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4.4 The Paris Agreement is not the End but the Beginning
The next years will show whether the world community is willing to seriously tackle the chal-
lenges of a global transformation. The turn-around from the fossil-based development path is
still possible, but requires immediate implementation and the strengthening of national contri-
butions already from 2018. It requires transformative policies in almost all fields – energy,
transport, industrial processes, housing, agriculture and land-use in general. The decisive
momentum from Paris, which was felt by everyone who was present at COP21 and which
could even be felt via the electronic media, this crucial momentum must be turned into a po-
litical force. Politics, the economic sector, civil society and science all have the responsibility
to make utopia possible: a sustainable planet for everybody.
Wuppertal Institute
for Climate, Environment and Energy
P.O. Box 100480
42004 Wuppertal
GERMANY
www.wupperinst.org
