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Applying the Safety and Environmental Risk and Reliability Model (SERM) for Malaysian Langat River Collision Aversion
Abstract
Collision accident remains a big threat to coastal water transportation operation. Occurrence of a collision event exposes vessel owners and operators as well as the public to risk. The nature of the threat can be worrisome; it may lead to loss of life, damage to the environment, disruption of operation, and injuries. This makes hybrid analysis of accident frequency and consequence for risk quantification of accident scenarios through stochastic tools very imperative for reliable design and exercise of technocrat stewardship of safety and safeguard of the environmental. The study involves a predictive model for collision risk and mitigation option for aversion of collision incident. Accident frequency and consequence are obtained using probability tools. Validity of the result is checked with reliability tools. Findings of the study were checked with subsystem and uncertainty risk-contributing factors in order to arrive at a sustainable decision support for collision aversion for inland water transportation. This chapter discusses the result and validation of implementation of the Safety and Environmental Risk and Reliability Model (SERM) for aversion of collision accident for vessel navigating for inland waterways.
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The variation of squat with speed in shallow water has been shown to be important with the sinking of the ferry Herald of Free Enterprise, yet it is not easily predictable, particularly at higher speeds. The squat characteristics of a number of ship models have been analyzed and an empirical method of predicting the squat at subcritical speeds has been devised. This method has been compared with data from the model tests of the Herald of Free Enterprise and has shown good agreement.
In 1994 the International Maritime Organization adopted the Code of Safety for High-Speed Craft (HSC Code). After two years of use, several shortfalls were found, one being the damage length predictor, which is based on traditional steel, mono-hulled vessels. Other damage predictors were developed based on historical data, but they do not account for variables such as aluminum or fiberglass construction, transverse members, indenter geometry variation, or for the case where the vessel comes to rest on the grounding object. This paper proposes a damage prediction model based on material properties, structural layout, grounding object geometry, and vessel speed. The model incorporates four grounding mechanisms: plate cutting, plate tearing, crushing of plate behind transverse members, and transverse member failure. The method is used to determine the resistance energy, compared to the kinetic energy, of the vessel, to determine an effective damage length. Finite-element analysis was used to model the failure of both aluminum and steel transverse members with significant differences in the results. It was found that the transverse members provided the majority of the resistance energy in one grounding mechanism and negligible resistance energy in another.
CONTEXT OF RELIABILITY ANALYSIS. An Overview. Illustrative Cases and Data Sets. BASIC RELIABILITY METHODOLOGY. Collection and Preliminary Analysis of Failure Data. Probability Distributions for Modeling Time to Failure. Basic Statistical Methods for Data Analysis. RELIABILITY MODELING, ESTIMATION, AND PREDICTION. Modeling Failures at the Component Level. Modeling and Analysis of Multicomponent Systems. Advanced Statistical Methods for Data Analysis. Software Reliability. Design of Experiments and Analysis of Variance. Model Selection and Validation. RELIABILITY MANAGEMENT, IMPROVEMENT, AND OPTIMIZATION. Reliability Management. Reliability Engineering. Reliability Prediction and Assessment. Reliability Improvement. Maintenance of Unreliable Systems. Warranties and Service Contracts. Reliability Optimization. EPILOGUE. Case Studies. Resource Materials. Appendices. References. Indexes.
The extent of penetrations in ship collisions is considered. It is
pointed out that collisions of nuclear powered ships, particularly in harbor
channels or territorial waters, could result in serious radioactive contamination
of the environment. From this standpoint it becomes necessary to predict the
conditions under which the reactor spaee of a nuclear ship will remain intact,
and what structural strength should be built into the hull for kinetic energy
absorption. A method of solution is presented which follows a semi-analytical
approach based on the facts of twenty-four actual collisions. Use of the method
is explained. (J.R.D.)
An area of sea in which there are several traffic streams may be characterized by the number of potential encounters between two ships that would be expected to take place. The traffic flow in an area of 300 sq. n.m. of the Dover Strait over a nine-year period has been analysed to give the numbers of such potential encounters of head-on, crossing, and overtaking ships in three conditions of visibility. The number of collisions occurring has been similarly broken down and hence the risk of each different type of encounter leading to a collision has been determined. It is shown that decreasing visibility makes collision very much more likely, whereas the direction of encounter makes a comparatively minor difference to the probability.
The number of ships involved in collisions in Japanese waters, excluding collisions with fixed or floating objects, increased rapidly in the 1960s, as can be seen in the statistics of the Marine Accidents Inquiry Commission: 1578 in 1955, 3604 in 1960, 6043 in 1965 and 7642 in 1970, while the increase in average tonnage resulted in numerous serious accidents. To cope with this situation, the Maritime Traffic Safety Law (MTSL) was enacted in 1973, defining eleven traffic routes in congested waters. The Tokyo Bay Traffic Advisory Centre was established in 1975 and started operation in 1977. The trend in the number of traffic accidents requiring assistance shows the effect of traffic management in reducing the number of accidents.
This paper discusses the issue of the characterization of uncertainty in a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of a complex system, such as a nuclear power plant. The significance to the interpretation of the results of a PRA of maintaining the distinction between the aleatory and epistemic components of uncertainty is illustrated using a simple example. The point of view presented here is that the degree to which it is necessary to invoke both aspects of uncertainty to characterize an event in a PRA model is as much a function of the way the analyst chooses to model the event of interest as it is of the nature of the event itself.
Formal safety assessment of ships has attracted great attention over the last few years. In this paper, following a brief review of the current status of marine safety assessment, formal ship safety assessment is discussed in detail. A subjective safety-analysis-based decision-making framework is then proposed for formal ship safety assessment in situations where a high level of uncertainty is involved. In the framework, failure events at the lowest level are modelled using fuzzy sets and safety synthesis at the different levels of a hierarchy is carried out using evidential reasoning. Multiple safety analysts' judgements can also be synthesised using the framework. Subjective safety and cost assessments obtained can finally be combined to produce the preference degrees associated with the design/operation options for ranking purposes. An example is used to demonstrate the framework.
Thesis (Nav. E.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Ocean Engineering, 1996, and Thesis (M.S.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, 1996. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 119-124).
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