Climate change and human health: present and future risks (vol 367, pg 859, 2006)

500-Year Records Demonstrating a Sharp Increase in Intensities of Three Natural Hazards at Multiple Spatiotemporal Scales in China

Article

Full-text available

Dec 2022

China has experienced frequent natural disasters, including droughts, floods, and heavy snowfall. This study discusses the temporal-spatial patterns in the country since 1500. The intensity of drought in Henan and Inner Mongolia was higher than that in Guizhou and Qinghai, while little difference in flood intensity was observed among these provinces. The intensity of snow disasters in Qinghai was much higher. Except for the slightly decreasing drought trend in Henan, the three natural disasters showed a significant increase over time. Drought disasters in Guizhou, Henan, and Qinghai showed few seasonal differences, whereas those in Inner Mongolia mostly occurred in winter and spring. Floods were concentrated during the summer, while snow disasters occurred mainly during winter and spring. According to the Mann–Kendall (M–K) test, the seasonal differences in disaster trends in Guizhou, Henan, and Qinghai were unclear and similar to the overall trend. However, the disaster trends in Inner Mongolia showed seasonal differences. The spatial distribution of natural disasters in Guizhou and Henan were similar, and their changing trends were extremely scattered, while in Inner Mongolia and Qinghai, they were clustered. The spatial distribution of disaster intensity had few seasonal differences and was similar to the overall distribution. However, when considering the spatial distribution of disaster trends by season, seasonal differences were evident. This study has provided an earlier signal on how to prevent and mitigate natural disasters based on 500 years' tempo-spatial pattern, and the measures on how to improve the management practices of natural hazards under climate change were also suggested.

Supporting Century-Long Lives through Efficient Energy Use and Livable Urban Environments

Technical Report

Full-text available

Sep 2021

Global urbanization amidst climate and environmental change poses numerous challenges to the healthy aging of populations. To better support century-long lives in an aging society, substantial changes in various aspects of the current world, especially in the domain of Environment and Climate, are imperative. In this report, we focus on two key aspects of this domain, energy consumption and urban environments, and examine their influence on human well-being. We first investigate the trajectories of energy consumption and human well-being based on data analysis. We identify the minimum level of per capita energy use to support secure and high-quality lives. The decoupling of human well-being from energy consumption in high-consumption countries, including the U.S., signifies the potential to reduce energy use without harming the life quality. We also analyze major climate-and weather-related threats that urban residents are facing under climate and environmental change. To identify alternative approaches toward a sustainable future, we review existing efforts on energy saving and the improvement of urban environmental quality. These evidence-based alternatives suggest the opportunities to further improve energy efficiency, enhance the livability of U.S. cities, and foster the healthy longevity of Americans.-2

Reconnaissance spécifique des arbres de la canopée en forêt tropicale par fusion de données lidar et hyperspectrales

Thesis

Mar 2021

Anthony Laybros

Les forêts tropicales, représentant 6,4% de la surface terrestre, abritent la plus grande biodiversité des écosystèmes terrestres et jouent un rôle fondamental dans le cycle du carbone à l'échelle mondiale. La durabilité de l'exploitation des forêts tropicales est un enjeu fondamental tant du point de vue de la conservation de la biodiversité que de la réduction des émissions liées à la déforestation et à la dégradation des forêts (REDD +). L'Office National des Forêts (ONF) est chargé de la conservation et de la gestion de 6 millions d'hectares de forêts privé en Guyane française. La possibilité de cartographier les espèces dans la canopée par télédétection est d'un intérêt évident, tant appliquées que scientifique.Les inventaires spatialisés à l'échelle du paysage contribueraient à faire progresser les connaissances fondamentales de ce biome complexe et menacé et aiderait à sa gestion durable. Les cartes de distribution d’espèces peuvent être croisées avec les facteurs environnementaux et fournir ainsi des clés d’interprétation des schémas d’organisation des peuplements forestiers. Du point de vue de la gestion, les cartes de distribution des espèces offre une rationalisation de l'exploitation forestière. La cartographie des espèces commerciales pourrait favoriser des pratiques forestières minimisant l'impact environnemental de l'exploitation. L'identification des espèces permettrait de prioriser les zones particulièrement riches en espèces commerciales, tout en évitant d'ouvrir des pistes d'exploitation dans les zones à faible niveau de ressources exploitables. La télédétection offre également la possibilité de surveiller l’extension des espèces proliférantes, telles que les lianes.Des capteurs hyperspectraux et LiDAR ont été utilisés à bord d’un avion pour identifier les espèces dans les forêts tropicales guyanaises. Une large gamme spectrale issue des capteurs hyperspectraux (400–2500 nm) est mesurée permettant d'avoir de nombreux descripteurs. Le LiDAR embarqué offre une description fine de la structure du couvert, facilitant la segmentation des houppiers. La fusion de ces deux informations améliore la caractérisation de la ressource.Afin de tirer le meilleur parti des données hyperspectrales, différents prétraitements radiométriques ont été évalués. Le lissage spatial et le filtrage des ombres sont les principaux facteurs qui améliorent la discrimination des espèces. L'utilisation de la gamme spectrale complète est également bénéfique. Ces résultats de classification ont été obtenus sur un groupe 20 espèces abondantes. L’identification de ces mêmes espèces en mélange au sein d’un peuplement hyperdivers a constitué la deuxième étape de ce travail.Nous avons évalué le niveau d'information nécessaire et le degré de confusion tolérable dans les données d’apprentissage afin de retrouver une espèce cible dans une canopée hyperdiverse. Une méthode de classification spécifique a été mise en œuvre pour être insensible à la contamination entre classes focales/non focales. Même dans le cas où la classe non focale contient jusqu’à 5% de pixels de la classe focale (espèce à identifier), les classifieurs se sont révélés efficaces.La troisème étape aborde le problème de la transposabilité des classifieurs d’une acquisition à une autre. La caractérisation des conditions d’acquisition et la prise en compte de leurs effets sont nécessaires pour convertir les données de radiance en réflectance de surface. Cependant cette opération de standardisation reste une étape extrêmement délicate au vue des nombreuses sources de variabilité : état de l’atmosphère, géométrie soleil-capteur et conditions d'éclairement. Nous évaluons en comparant des vols répétés sur le même site, la contribution des diverses caractéristiques d’acquisition à la divergence spectrale entre dates. Ce travail vise à proposer des pistes pour développer des méthodes de reconnaissance d'espèces qui soient plus robustes aux variations des caractéristiques d'acquisition.

Physiological responses of Holstein calves to heat stress and dietary supplementation with a postbiotic from Aspergillus oryzae

Article

Full-text available

Jan 2022

Increased ambient temperature causes heat stress in mammals, which affects physiological and molecular functions. We have recently reported that the dietary administration of a postbiotic from Aspergillus oryzae (AO) improves tolerance to heat stress in fruit flies and cattle. Furthermore, heat-induced gut dysfunction and systemic inflammation have been ameliorated in part by nutritional interventions. The objective of this study was to characterize the phenotypic response of growing calves to heat stress compared to thermoneutral ad libitum fed and thermoneutral feed-restricted counterparts and examining the physiologic alterations associated with the administration of the AO postbiotic to heat-stressed calves with emphasis on intestinal permeability. In this report, we expand previous work by first demonstrating that heat stress reduced partial energetic efficiency of growth in control (45%) but not in AO-fed calves (62%) compared to thermoneutral animals (66%). While heat stress increased 20% the permeability of the intestine, AO postbiotic and thermoneutral treatments did not affect this variable. In addition, AO postbiotic reduced fecal water content relative to thermoneutral and heat stress treatments. Heat stress increased plasma concentrations of serum amyloid A, haptoglobin and lipocalin-2, and administration of AO postbiotic did not ameliorate this effect. In summary, our findings indicated that heat stress led to reduced nutrient-use efficiency and increased systemic inflammation. Results suggest that the AO postbiotic improved energy-use efficiency, water absorption, and the intestinal permeability in heat stress-mediated increase in gut permeability but did not reduce heat stress-mediated rise in markers of systemic inflammation.

From Inuit Nunangat to the Marsh: How climate change and environmental racism affect population health

Article

Full-text available

Nov 2021

Christina Norma Torrealba

It is widely accepted in the scientific community and beyond that climate change presents an immediate and severe threat to human health and well-being. However, the consequences of climate change are not experienced equally across all populations. Black and Indigenous communities are disproportionately exposed to harmful, hazardous, and often toxic activities and pollutants—a form of racial violence known as environmental racism. To understand how environmental racism, exacerbated by climate change, affects population health, I will explore two examples of environmental racism in Inuit Nunangat in the Arctic and in Truro, Nova Scotia. Finally, I will discuss social capital and power in the context of environmental racism—incorporating an eco-social perspective when addressing environmental racism—and the ways in which population health researchers can help narrow the health gap caused by environmental racism and climate change.

Environmental Risk Over Indian Subcontinents: Consequences and Impacts

Chapter

Full-text available

Jan 2024

India is facing continuous depletion of natural resources like air and water and threats of climate change. The influence of the environment on people's health changes with time. Considering that the environment and health relate to different situations is crucial because the world is changing. The present work aims to assess the impact of contemporary environmental challenges of air, water, and climate change on human health. The present paper emphasizes different environmental factors and human health with special emphasis on air, water, and climate change quality. With estimated data of more than four million premature mortality per year from open-air pollution and 3.8 from inside pollution, air pollution is the foremost environmental health risk in the world. Water quality issues are becoming more widespread globally as population demands increase. Surface water fulfills the drinking water needs of half of the world's population and is the primary method of disease transmission over long distances. Climate change is responsible for 2.4% of global diarrhea cases and 6% of malaria cases. Global temperatures are estimated to rise for the remainder of the century, raising health issues for everyone, especially in low-income nations. Therefore, public health progress needs to be studied to understand the connections between numerous environmental risk factors and human health. For more accurate estimation, quantitative examination of environmental toxins at all regional, national, and international levels is necessary for more precise estimation.

La variabilidad climática: evidencias y consecuencias.

Chapter

Full-text available

Jul 2024

Climate Change and Human Health in Nigeria

Article

Full-text available

Dec 2023

This study examined the impact of climate change on human health in Nigeria. Life expectancy and infant mortality rate were used as proxies for human health. At the same time, climate change was indexed using carbon emissions, forest depletion, nitrous oxide emissions, fossil fuel energy, C02 emissions, and greenhouse gas emissions. Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag model (ARDL) was employed as the estimation technique. The results show adverse significant effects of climate change on human health in Nigeria. It was concluded that climate change significantly affects human health in Nigeria. Therefore, policymakers need to design and implement policies to reduce climate damage through economic activities to lessen the harmful effects of climate change on human health in Nigeria.

Mitigation of atmospheric carbon dioxide through forest protection: a modeling study

Article

Full-text available

May 2024
Environ Dev Sustain

The rising human population increases anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2

_2

) and the demand for wood, leading to deforestation and hence higher CO2

_2

levels. In this research work, by formulating and analyzing a mathematical model, we aim to suggest a strategy to maintain the equilibrium level of CO2

_2

at a lower concentration. In the model formulation, we consider both the natural emissions of CO2

_2

and the contribution from anthropogenic sources. Additionally, the clearance of forest land due to population pressure is also taken into account. Currently, governments are mobilizing funds at national and international levels to reduce the atmospheric level of CO2

_2

. We have considered that these funds are utilized for two purposes: (i) implementing technologies that capture CO2

_2

directly from the atmosphere, and (ii) providing alternatives to forest biomass to alleviate population pressure. To analyze the formulated model, we employ the stability theory of differential equations. We have established sufficient conditions under which all relevant dynamic variables stabilize at their equilibrium levels. It is established that an increase in anthropogenic emissions rate coefficient and deforestation rate elevates the atmospheric level of CO2

_2

. Furthermore, it has been illustrated that the forest land clearance rate due to population pressure has a significant impact on the equilibrium level of atmospheric CO2

_2

. We have shown that providing economic incentives for the control of forest land clearance is beneficial for reducing and stabilizing atmospheric CO2

_2

. Through numerical simulation, we demonstrate that the formulated system undergoes Hopf-bifurcation in relation to the growth rate of economic efforts and deforestation rate. Our study reveals that with a lower deforestation rate, the atmospheric level of CO2

_2

is stabilized. However, if the deforestation rate exceeds a threshold value, the considered dynamical variables show oscillatory dynamics. In this case, the allocation of funds by the government at a higher rate not only reduces but also stabilizes the atmospheric concentration of CO2

_2

at a lower level.

High-resolution projections of ambient heat for major European cities using different heat metrics

Article

Full-text available

Feb 2024
NAT HAZARD EARTH SYS

Heat stress in cities is projected to strongly increase due to climate change. The associated health risks will be exacerbated by the high population density in cities and the urban heat island effect. However, impacts are still uncertain, which is among other factors due to the existence of multiple metrics for quantifying ambient heat and the typically rather coarse spatial resolution of climate models. Here we investigate projections of ambient heat for 36 major European cities based on a recently produced ensemble of regional climate model simulations for Europe (EURO-CORDEX) at 0.11° spatial resolution (∼ 12.5 km). The 0.11° EURO-CORDEX ensemble provides the best spatial resolution currently available from an ensemble of climate model projections for the whole of Europe and makes it possible to analyse the risk of temperature extremes and heat waves at the city level. We focus on three temperature-based heat metrics – yearly maximum temperature, number of days with temperatures exceeding 30 °C, and Heat Wave Magnitude Index daily (HWMId) – to analyse projections of ambient heat at 3 °C warming in Europe compared to 1981–2010 based on climate data from the EURO-CORDEX ensemble. The results show that southern European cities will be particularly affected by high levels of ambient heat, but depending on the considered metric, cities in central, eastern, and northern Europe may also experience substantial increases in ambient heat. In several cities, projections of ambient heat vary considerably across the three heat metrics, indicating that estimates based on a single metric might underestimate the potential for adverse health effects due to heat stress. Nighttime ambient heat, quantified based on daily minimum temperatures, shows similar spatial patterns to daytime conditions, albeit with substantially higher HWMId values. The identified spatial patterns of ambient heat are generally consistent with results from global Earth system models, though with substantial differences for individual cities. Our results emphasise the value of high-resolution climate model simulations for analysing climate extremes at the city level. At the same time, they highlight that improving the predominantly rather simple representations of urban areas in climate models would make their simulations even more valuable for planning adaptation measures in cities. Further, our results stress that using complementary metrics for projections of ambient heat gives important insights into the risk of future heat stress that might otherwise be missed.

Assessing the Nexus between Climate Change and Public Health in Nepal: A Comprehensive Exploration of Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Adaptive Strategies

Article

Full-text available

Dec 2023

Climate change and variability exert a global influence, affecting individuals and regions across the world. However, its impact is particularly pronounced in specific geographical areas and their inhabitants. Nepal, a globally recognized mountainous country, encompasses 18 percent of the world's mountainous terrain and spans 4.3 million km2 across eight Asian countries: Nepal, Bhutan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, China, India, Myanmar, and Pakistan. These Asian regions are experiencing a warming trend that surpasses the global average, accompanied by a significant increase in precipitation over the past six decades, leading to heightened frequency and intensity of specific extreme events. The alterations in temperature and precipitation have already impacted and are expected to continue affecting various climate-dependent sectors such as hydrology, agriculture, biodiversity, and human health. This paper aims to document the historical and anticipated impacts of climate change on the health and well-being of Nepal's population, providing adaptation and mitigation strategies to alleviate these effects. Additionally, the study assesses the indirect impact of agriculture and other human-related issues on human health and well-being. Utilizing narrative review processes, the research concludes the outlined issues. In Nepal, climate change contributes to complex challenges, resulting in the proliferation of infectious diseases, non-communicable diseases (NCDs), malnutrition, and injuries, as evident from this review. Consequently, the prompt implementation of climate change adaptation and mitigation measures is imperative to protect the vulnerable populations residing in the country.

Predicting the risk of heatstroke: Development of a highly accurate model

Preprint

Full-text available

Jun 2022

In Japan, a heat health warning system is in operation to reduce heat-related mortality and morbidity caused by global climate change. However, warnings are issued uniformly throughout the country under the same conditions, resulting in low accuracy in some areas. To reduce heat-related mortality and morbidity, accurate models for predicting the number of people transported by ambulance due to heatstroke, a precursor to death, must be developed. This study compared three methods for predicting heatstroke risk: multiple regression analysis, a generalised additive model, and time-stratified case-crossover analysis (TC). Heatstroke susceptibility is likely to depend on year-wise trends and sensitivity to training data. Most previous models, however, only tested a small amount of training data. In this study, we looked into the best number of years to use as training data. Error-influencing factors in the training data were identified by comparing the errors of each method. The TC errors were significantly less sensitive to the training data than the others (p <0.01). When data from three to four years after the most recent data were included, the accuracy of all three methods tended to decrease. Consequently, a highly accurate prediction model with low sensitivity to training data was developed using the odds ratios produced by TC, which was impossible with previous models. This modelling approach will help improve heat-health warning systems, reducing heatrelated mortality and morbidity and can be used to make each area safer in the future.

Short-term effect of meteorological factors and extreme weather events on daily outpatient visits for dry eye disease between 2013 and 2020: a time-series study in Urumqi, China

Article

Full-text available

Oct 2023
ENVIRON SCI POLLUT R

Dry eye disease (DED) is a common disorder of tear secretion on the ocular surface caused by multiple factors with dry eyes as the main symptom, but until now studies focusing on relationship between local meteorological factors and ocular surface diseases in Urumqi are very limited. Besides, the effects of long-term and extreme meteorological factors on DED and the lag effect have not been fully evaluated. Electronic case information of 9970 DED outpatients from the Ophthalmology Department of the First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University (Urumqi, Xinjiang, China) between January 1, 2013, and December 31, 2020, was screened and analyzed. We used a time-series analysis design and a quasi-Poisson generalized linear regression model combined with a distributed lagged nonlinear model (DLNM) to fit the effects of exposure to different meteorological factors and extreme weather on DED outpatient visits. Subgroup analyses were further performed for gender, age, and season. The results showed that exposure to extremely low mean temperature (P1:RR = 1.18), atmospheric pressure (P1:RR = 1.11), and extremely high relative humidity (P99:RR = 1.35) were the risk factors, while extremely high atmospheric pressure (P90:RR = 0.883) and extremely low humidity (P10:RR = 0.856) appeared to have a positive effect on reduced risk of DED. Relative humidity exhibited a 1-day lag effect (RR = 1.06). Increased mean temperature positively affected female DED patients (RR = 0.761) with similar effects in the cold season (RR = 0.926). However, elevated relative humidity had a negative effect on female patients (RR = 1.14). We conducted the first large sample size time-series analysis study in this major city at the farthest distance from the ocean in the world and in northwest China, confirming the association of DED outpatient visits with the remaining three meteorological factors except wind speed in Urumqi, and a larger sample size multi-center epidemiological study with a longer duration is still needed.

Macroeconomic factors affecting carbon dioxide emissions in Bangladesh: an ARDL approach

Article

Full-text available

Sep 2023

Md. Musa Khan

This study examines the factors specific to firms that affect the profitability of Bangladesh's non-banking financial institutions (NBFIs). The regression is estimated using a model incorporating panel-corrected standard errors by looking at panel data from 22 NBFIs over ten years (2012–2021). The study investigates factors such as the organisation's size, capital adequacy ratio, nonperforming loans, liquidity ratio, age, and leverage, focusing on assessing the return on assets (ROA) and equity (ROE). The results present numerous significant insights. First, company size has a significant positive impact on the profitability of NBFIs, indicating that larger institutions frequently outperform smaller ones. Their ability to obtain financing at more affordable rates and investors' perceptions of their dependability may account for this. Second, the study finds a beneficial and substantial association between profitability and the capital adequacy ratio, highlighting the need to maintain higher ratios to improve profitability. Third, the study also reveals that nonperforming loans negatively correlate with profitability, suggesting that NBFIs with reduced credit risk are more successful. Finally, it has been discovered that NBFI age has a detrimental effect on profitability, especially for older institutions that are still modest in size. Additionally, liquidity has a detrimental impact on profitability, showing that NBFIs make more investments to make money with their available money. However, there needs to be a discernible connection between profitability and leverage. Managers of NBFIs can benefit significantly from the practical implications of these results in knowing the particular elements that influence profitability. These insights can help managers decide about investment strategies, managing nonperforming loans, and capital sufficiency. The present study makes a scholarly contribution by providing panel data on the firm-specific determinants that impact the profitability of NBFIs in Bangladesh, thereby adding to the existing literature.

Society and climate change links and lifestyle changes measures

Technical Report

Full-text available

May 2023

NEVERMORE Project's Deliverable. More information in https://www.nevermore-horizon.eu/public-deliverables/

Quantifying Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Human Deaths to Guide Energy Policy

Preprint

Full-text available

Jul 2023

When attempting to quantify future harms caused by carbon emissions and to set appropriate energy policies, it has been argued that the most important metric is the number of human deaths caused by climate change. Several studies have attempted to overcome the uncertainties associated with such forecasting. In this article, approaches to estimating future human deaths tolls from climate change are compared and synthesized, and implications for energy policy are considered. Several studies are consistent with the “1000-ton rule,” according to which a future person is killed every time 1000 tons of fossil carbon are burned (order-of-magnitude estimate). If warming reaches or exceeds 2°C this century, mainly richer humans will be responsible for killing roughly 1 billion mainly poorer humans through anthropogenic global warming. Such mass manslaughter is clearly unacceptable. On this basis, relatively aggressive energy policies are summarized that would enable immediate and substantive decreases to carbon emissions. The limitations to such calculations are outlined and future work is recommended to accelerate the decarbonization of the global economy while minimizing the number of sacrificed human lives.

Stay healthy under global warming: A review of wearable technology for thermoregulation

Article

Full-text available

Jul 2023

Global warming has been affecting human health, including direct mortality and morbidity from extreme heat, storms, drought, and indirect infectious diseases. It is not only “global” but extremely “personal”—it is a matter of life and death for many of us. In this perspective, we propose the use of wearable technologies for localized personal thermoregulation as an innovative method to reduce the impact on health and enable wider adaptability to extreme thermal environments. The state‐of‐the‐art thermoregulation methods and wearable sensing technologies are summarized. In addition, the feasibility of thermoregulation technology in preventive medicine for promoting health under climate change is comprehensively discussed. Further, we provide an outlook on health‐oriented closed loop that can be achieved based on parallel thermoregulation and multiple data inputs from the physiological, environmental, and psychological cues, which could promote individuals and the public to better adapt to global warming. image

What initiates chemical intolerance? Findings from a large population-based survey of U.S. adults

Article

Full-text available

Aug 2023

Background Worldwide observations point to a two-stage theory of disease called Toxicant-Induced Loss of Tolerance (TILT): Stage I, Initiation by an acute high-level or repeated lower-level chemical exposures, followed by Stage II, Triggering of multisystem symptoms by previously tolerated, structurally diverse chemical inhalants, foods/food additives and drugs. Until recently, there was no known biological mechanism that could explain these observations. In 2021, we published a plausible and researchable two-stage biomechanism for TILT involving mast cells: Stage I, Initiation via mast cell sensitization; Stage II, Triggering of mast cell degranulation by previously tolerated exposures, resulting in the release of thousands of mediators, including histamine and a host of inflammatory molecules. The objective of this study was to identify common TILT initiators. Methods A randomized, population-based sample of 10,981 U.S. adults responded to a survey which included items concerning medical diagnoses, personal exposures, antibiotic use, and several possible initiators of Chemical Intolerance (CI). CI was assessed using the internationally validated Quick Environmental Exposure and Sensitivity Inventory (QEESI). Participants identified as chemically intolerant were asked to recall when their intolerances began and what they felt had initiated their condition. Results Twenty percent met QEESI criteria for TILT, approximately half of whom identified one or more initiating exposures. Initiators in order of frequency were mold (15.6%), pesticides (11.5%), remodeling/new construction (10.7%), medical/surgical procedures (11.3%), fires/combustion products (6.4%), and implants (1.6%). Protracted antibiotic use for infections involving the prostate, skin, tonsils, gastrointestinal tract, and sinuses were strongly associated with TILT/CI (OR > 2). Discussion Participants identified two broad classes of TILT initiators: 1) fossil fuel-derived toxicants (i.e., from coal, oil, natural gas), their combustion products, and/or synthetic organic chemical derivatives, e.g., pesticides, implants, drugs/antibiotics, volatile organic compounds (VOCs); and 2) biogenic toxicants, e.g., particles and VOCs from mold or algal blooms. One in four primary care patients suffers from Medically Unexplained Symptoms (MUS). Doctors in primary care, neurology, psychiatry, psychology, occupational medicine, and allergy/immunology would be well-advised to include TILT in their differential diagnosis of patients with so-called MUS. Because 20% of U.S. adults meet QEESI criteria for CI, the role of contemporary exposures in initiating and exacerbating these conditions via mast cells needs our immediate attention. There is a concomitant need for policies and practices that reduce initiating exposures as well as ubiquitous and often unavoidable triggers such as fragranced personal care, cleaning, and laundry products in multi-occupant housing, workplaces, medical settings, schools, places of worship, and all public buildings—literally anywhere air is shared. Fossil fuels are assaulting humans and other animal species both from within via mast cell sensitization, and from without via climate change.

Damage and restoration of historical urban walls: literature review and case of studies

Article

Full-text available

Jun 2023

Within this work, the causes of collapses and damages occurred in masonry artefacts have been evaluated to properly identify suitable monitoring and restoration methods. In this regard, a comprehensive literature review has been performed. Based on the results, the moisture has found to be a critical parameter, which affects the structural health of masonry artefacts. Diverse non-destructive methods were employed to measure the moisture and monitor the materials involved: the Infrared Thermography, the Electrical Resistivity Tomography and the Ground Penetrating Radar, the Laser Scanning and Digital Terrestrial Photogrammetry, the Global Navigation Satellite Systems, the Unilateral Nuclear Magnetic Resonance, the Laser-Induced Fluorescence technique, the Acoustic Imaging and the Acoustic Tomography, the Geographic Information System and on-site survey process as well as computer modeling of the structure with specific FEM software. Finally, the implementation of tie-beams, Fiber Reinforced Polymers layers, ventilation, draining systems, and high-quality materials are proposed as solutions for controlling the moisture effect and retrofitting.

Temporal trend and global burden of type 2 diabetes attributable to non-optimal temperature, 1990–2019: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Article

Full-text available

Jun 2023
ENVIRON SCI POLLUT R

Exposure to hot or cold temperatures was reported to be associated with increased mortality and morbidity of type 2 diabetes, but few studies have estimated the temporal trend and global burden of type 2 diabetes attributable to non-optimal temperature. Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, we collected data on the numbers and rates of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of type 2 diabetes attributed to non-optimal temperature. The joinpoint regression analysis was used to estimate the temporal trends of the age-standardized rate of mortality and DALYs from 1990 to 2019 by average annual percentage change (AAPC). From 1990 to 2019, globally, the numbers of deaths and DALYs of type 2 diabetes attributable to non-optimal temperature increased by 136.13% (95% (uncertainty interval) UI: 87.04% to 277.76%) and 122.26% (95% UI: 68.77% to 275.59%), with the number from 0.05 (95% UI: 0.02 to 0.07) million and 0.96 (95% UI: 0.37 to 1.51) million in 1990 to 0. 11 (95% UI: 0.07 to 0.15) million and 2.14 (95% UI: 1.35 to 3.13) million in 2019. The age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and DALYs rate (ASDR) of type 2 diabetes attributable to non-optimal temperature showed an increasing trend in the high temperature effect and lower (low, low-middle and middle) socio-demographic index (SDI) region, with AAPCs of 3.17%, 1.24%, 1.61%, and 0.79% (all P < 0.05), respectively. The greatest increased ASMR and ASDR were observed in Central Asia, followed by Western Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Meanwhile, the contribution of type 2 diabetes burden attributable to high temperature gradually increased globally and in five SDI regions. In addition, the global age-specific rate of mortality and DALYs of type 2 diabetes attributable to non-optimal temperature for both men and women almost increased with age in 2019. The global burden of type 2 diabetes attributable to non-optimal temperature increased from 1990 to 2019, particularly in high temperature, regions with lower SDI, and the older population. Appropriate temperature interventions are necessary to curb climate change and increasing diabetes.

What Initiates Chemical Intolerance? Findings from a Large Population-Based Survey of U.S. Adults

Preprint

Full-text available

Jun 2023

Background Worldwide observations point to a two-stage theory of disease called Toxicant-Induced Loss of Tolerance (TILT): Stage I, Initiation by an acute high-level or repeated lower-level chemical exposures, followed by Stage II, Triggering of multisystem symptoms by previously tolerated, structurally diverse chemical inhalants, foods/food additives and drugs. Until recently, there was no known biological mechanism that could explain these observations. In 2021 we published a plausible and researchable two-stage biomechanism for TILT involving mast cells: Stage I, Initiation via mast cell sensitization; Stage II, Triggering of mast cell degranulation by previously tolerated exposures, resulting in the release of thousands of mediators, including histamine and a host of inflammatory molecules. The objective of this study was to identify common TILT initiators. Methods A randomized, population-based sample of 10,981 U.S. adults responded to a survey which included items concerning medical diagnoses, personal exposures, antibiotic use, and several possible initiators of Chemical Intolerance (CI). CI was assessed using the internationally validated Quick Environmental Exposure and Sensitivity Inventory (QEESI). Participants identified as chemically intolerant were asked to recall when their intolerances began and what they felt had initiated their condition. Results Twenty percent met QEESI criteria for TILT, approximately half of whom identified one or more initiating exposures. Initiators in order of frequency were mold (15.6%), pesticides (11.5%), remodeling/new construction (10.7%), medical/surgical procedures (11.3%), fires/combustion products (6.4%), and implants (1.6%). Protracted antibiotic use for infections involving the prostate, skin, tonsils, gastrointestinal tract, and sinuses were strongly associated with TILT/CI (OR > 2). Discussion Participants identified two broad classes of TILT initiators: 1) fossil fuel-derived toxicants (i.e., from coal, oil, natural gas), their combustion products, and/or synthetic organic chemical derivatives, e.g., pesticides, implants, drugs/antibiotics, volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and 2) biogenic toxicants, e.g., particles and VOCs from mold or algal blooms. One in four primary care patients suffers from Medically Unexplained Symptoms (MUS). Doctors in primary care, neurology, psychiatry, psychology, occupational medicine, and allergy/immunology would be well-advised to include TILT in their differential diagnosis of patients with so-called MUS. Because 20% of U.S. adults meet QEESI criteria for CI, the role of contemporary exposures in initiating and exacerbating these conditions via mast cells needs our immediate attention. There is a concomitant need for policies and practices that reduce initiating exposures as well as ubiquitous and often unavoidable triggers such as fragranced personal care, cleaning, and laundry products in multi-occupant housing, workplaces, medical settings, schools, places of worship, and all public buildings—literally anywhere air is shared. Fossil fuels are assaulting humans and other animal species both from withinvia mast cell sensitization, and from without via climate change.

INVESTIGATING HEALTH PROFESSIONALS’ UNDERSTANDING AND RISK PERCEPTION OF THE EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HEALTH. A CROSS-SECTIONAL STUDY OF HEALTH PROFESSIONALS AT THE SDA HOSPITAL, REGIONAL HOSPITAL AND MUNICIPAL HOSPITAL-SUNYANI, GHANA

Preprint

Full-text available

May 2023

The study investigated health professionals’ understanding and risk perception of climate change in the Sunyani Municipality by focusing on health professional’s knowledge on climate change, examining health professional’s risk perception of climate change on health and identifying the co-benefits of climate change mitigation. This quantitative oriented cross-sectional study randomly selected 400 health professionals across the Regional Hospital, SDA Hospital and Municipal Hospital as respondents. Quantitative data was analyzed using SPSS Version 25. From the study, the results indicate that Health professionals are fully aware of the concept of climate change. Health professionals do not have knowledge pertaining to the scientific aspects of climate change. There was a statistical relationship between respondent’s perception that climate change can lead to death (P<0.001) and their awareness of the risk of climate change impact on health. There was a general likelihood of an increase in malaria (Mean=2.98), Dengue fever (Mean=3.16), Cholera (Mean= 3.18), schistosomiasis (Mean=3.27), Meningococcal meningitis (Mean=3.85) and Influenza (Mean=3.73) due to climate change. These actions positively affect health and climate and they include: Giving up red meat (Mean=3.21), Walking and cycling instead of using cars (Mean=3.27), Reducing rural-urban migration (Mean=3.46), Reducing air pollution from emission of fossil fuel (Mean=3.63). A majority of 65% of respondents agreed to the incorporation of climate change related course work into nursing/medical school curricula as a policy to mitigate climate change. The study concludes that health professionals are fully aware about climate change but lack a thorough understanding of the scientific aspects of climate change. The general risk perception of health professionals towards climate change impact on health was high. Climate change mitigation is beneficial to human populations.

Effect of Nutrient Management and Weeds on Incidence of Fungal Diseases in Rice Effect of Nutrient Management and Weeds on Incidence of Fungal Diseases in Rice

Article

Full-text available

Jun 2023

High-input, modern agriculture uses large amounts of energy, water, fertilizers, and pesticides to produce high crop yields. One of the major bottlenecks of the modern agriculture in the tropics is substantial yield losses due to fungal diseases including rice blast, leaf spots and leaf scald. The aim of this study was to compare the incidence of fungal diseases in judicious nutrient management systems, including organic, integrated, and conventional, under different weed categories during dry season (May to September 2020) and wet season (November 2020 to March 2021). Rice disease incidence were collected for both seasons from 48-84 days after sowing. Additionally, disease incidences on grasses and sedges weeds were also calculated. Brown spot, narrow brown leaf spot, leaf scald, and rice blast incidences were substantial in wet season, while the disease incidences during dry season in 2020 were negligible. The disease incidences were significantly higher (P<0.05) in organic and conventional input systems compared to the integrated input system. Disease incidences of brown spot and leaf scald were found in the dry season. Higher disease incidences were recorded in the wet season than in the dry season. The incidences of the brown spot were higher on sedges than in grasses and vice versa were observed for narrow brown leaf spot disease. Leaf scald incidences were positively correlated with the significant nitrogen status of the rice crop. Disease incidence was low in integrated input system compared to conventional and organic input systems, while weeds were reported as alternative hosts. It can be concluded that the integrated nutrient management with recommended dosage of nitrogen application with proper weed management can lead to low disease incidents, hence is ecologically more sustainable.

Quantifying the cooling effect of urban heat stress interventions

Article

Jan 2023

Quantifying the cooling effect of urban heat stress interventions

Article

Jan 2023

This review evaluates the existing studies of blue, green, and grey interventions based on field measurements and modelling aiming to quantify the cooling impact that reduces outdoor heat stress. Based on findings from literature, it is concluded that water bodies can reduce the mean air temperature (Ta) by 3.4°C and universal thermal climate index (UTCI) by 10.7°C, while natural vegetation can improve Ta by 2.3°C and physiological equivalent temperature (PET) by 10.3°C during summer. Vertical greenery systems (VGS) provide cooling effect of Ta up to 4°C, whereas architectural shades reduce it by approximately 3.8°C and PET up to 6.9°C under shade structure.

Modeling the Climatic Suitability of COVID-19 Cases in Brazil

Article

Full-text available

Mar 2023

Studies have shown that climate may affect the distribution of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and its incidence and fatality rates. Here, we applied an ensemble niche modeling approach to project the climatic suitability of COVID-19 cases in Brazil. We estimated the cumulative incidence, mortality rate, and fatality rate of COVID-19 between 2020 and 2021. Seven statistical algorithms (MAXENT, MARS, RF, FDA, CTA, GAM, and GLM) were selected to model the climate suitability for COVID-19 cases from diverse climate data, including temperature, precipitation, and humidity. The annual temperature range and precipitation seasonality showed a relatively high contribution to the models, partially explaining the distribution of COVID-19 cases in Brazil based on the climatic suitability of the territory. We observed a high probability of climatic suitability for high incidence in the North and South regions and a high probability of mortality and fatality rates in the Midwest and Southeast regions. Despite the social, viral, and human aspects regulating COVID-19 cases and death distribution, we suggest that climate may play an important role as a co-factor in the spread of cases. In Brazil, there are regions with a high probability that climatic suitability will contribute to the high incidence and fatality rates of COVID-19 in 2020 and 2021.

Decadal trend of synoptic temperature variability over the Northern Hemisphere in winter

Article

Full-text available

Mar 2023
THEOR APPL CLIMATOL

Synoptic temperature variability gives rise to cold waves and extreme cold events in winter. Based on four reanalysis datasets, this study investigates the decadal trend of synoptic temperature variability in boreal winter during the period from 1980 to 2019, with particular focus on the sharp drops in synoptic-scale temperature, which are associated with cold waves. The result shows that the synoptic-scale standard deviation of temperature decreases significantly with a trend of − 0.15 K/decade (− 0.09 to − 0.21 K/decade among reanalysis datasets) over continental regions in mid-high latitudes. Correspondingly, the rapid cooling events (RCEs), defined based on the day-to-day temperature decrease exceeding 6 K, also show a general decreasing trend in terms of their frequency and intensity. The strongest decrease occurs over eastern North America (ENA) and western Eurasia (WE). The weakening of the RCEs is closely connected to the decreased trend of eddy kinetic energy (EKE), suggesting that the weakened transient eddy activities may have mitigated the synoptic-scale temperature variability and the associated RCEs over mid-high latitudes. This study highlights that the decreased synoptic temperature variability leads to fewer and weaker RCEs on the synoptic scale over mid-high latitudes in winter though the mean state of winter temperature continues to warm.

Increased emergency cases for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest due to cold spells in Shenzhen, China

Article

Full-text available

Aug 2022
ENVIRON SCI POLLUT R

Cold spells have been associated with specific diseases. However, there is insufficient scientific evidence on the effects of cold spells on out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA). Data on OHCA cases and on meteorological factors and air pollutants were collected between 2013 and 2020. We adopted a quasi-Poisson generalized additive model with a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) to estimate the effect of cold spells on daily OHCA incidence. Backward attributable risk within the DLNM framework was calculated to quantify the disease burden. We compared the effects and OHCA burden of cold spells using nine definitions. The risks of different cold spells on OHCA increased at higher intensities and longer durations. Based on Akaike’s information criterion for the quasi-Poisson regression model and the attributable risk, the optimal cold spell was defined as a period in the cold month when the daily mean temperature was below the 10th percentile of the temperature distribution in the study period for at least 2 days. The single-day effect of the optimal cold spell on OHCA occurred immediately and lasted for approximately 1 week. The maximum single-day effect was 1.052 (95% CI: 1.018–1.087) at lag0, while the maximum cumulative effect was 1.433 (95% CI:1.148–1.788) after a 14-day lag. Men were more susceptible to cold spells. Young and middle-aged people were affected by cold spells similar to the elderly. Cold spells can increase the risk of OHCA with an approximately 1-week lag effect. Health regulators should take more targeted measures to protect susceptible populations during cold weather.

THE EFFECT OF AGRICULTURE, MANUFACTURING AND TRANSPORTATION ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY IN INDONESIAN SELECTED PROVINCES

Article

Full-text available

Feb 2022

The Role of Peroxidases in the Bioremediation of Organic Pollutants

Article

Apr 2022

The emergence of organic pollutants such as phenolic acids, pesticides, dyes, petrochemicals, pharmaceuticals, and industrial wastes threatens our environment, including biodiversity, ecosystems of terrestrial and aquatic animals, and human health. It is well known that toxicants disrupt the biochemical balance of organisms and cause physiological effects in individuals. Emerging organic pollutants (OPs) have varied levels of lethality depending on their chemical nature and byproducts, properties and composition of the compound fractions, mode of exposure, levels of exposure, and time of exposure. Accordingly, risk mitigation measures should be taken with constant environmental changes. The peroxidases are groups of heme-proteins, and they are the most efficient biocatalysts known so far for the bioremediation of the environment. They are susceptible to environmental changes. However, under optimum conditions, they catalyze the breakdown of polyaromatic hydrocarbons, dyes, pharmaceutical compounds, agrochemicals, phenols, and other highly hazardous organic pollutants found in industrial effluents in the presence of electron mediators. Peroxidase-mediated bioremediation delivers several advantages to conventional biological remediation methods as it is much more efficient, cost-effective, easy to handle, and biofriendly. More thorough research and investigation are needed to comprehend their potential uses in organic transformations as biocatalysts. In this review, we focus on recent advances in the applications and the efficiency of peroxidases as eco-friendly catalysts.

Perception and knowledge about climate change and health problems: a study in Kolkata Metropolitan Region

Article

Full-text available

Mar 2022
GeoJournal

In the twenty-first century, land use changes, massive expansion of urbanization, population growth, economic crisis, environmental issues are the main challenges of developing countries. Climate change and its effects on human health are the major concerns for the different age groups of the population. The study delved into the causes associated with climate change and climate change-related myriad health impacts on the study population. This study has used a concurrent mixed-method research design. The quantitative and qualitative data were collected from the study area. Perception and knowledge about climate change and its consequences on health was based on a quantitative approach of Bi-variate analysis and Chi-Square test and Fisher’s exact test; this study also used qualitative data analysis. Study results show that most respondents pointed out that temperature increases throughout the year and 90% of the respondents reported that rainfall pattern has also changed. Similarly, 65% of respondents agreed in their statements in favour of increased natural calamities in this region. The study findings show that more than 40% of population faces dengue fever and 10% of people also suffer from malaria. More than 60% of the urban population suffered from asthma. Similarly, more than 70% of the population also got affected by cold and cough due to weather variability. Focus Group Discussion (FGD) and In-depth interviews of the participants also affirmed the fact that climate variability induced diseases and health problems in Kolkata Metropolitan areas. Urban residents perceived that excessive urbanization contributes to the changes in regional climate and human health. The study will encourage the policy-makers and local government to mitigate adverse health effects driven by climate change in the Kolkata Metropolitan Region.

Comparing building performance of supermarkets under future climate change: UK case study

Article

Full-text available

Jan 2022

Focus on climate change and extreme weather conditions has received considerable attention in recent years. Civil engineers are now focusing on designing buildings that are more eco-friendly in the face of climate change. This paper describes the research conducted to assess the impact of future climate change on energy usage and carbon emissions in a typical supermarket at multiple locations across the UK. Locations that were included in the study were London, Manchester, and Southampton. These three cities were compared against their building performance based on their respective climatic conditions. Based on the UK Climatic Projections (UKCP09), a series of energy modelling simulations which were provided by the Chartered Institute of Building Service Engineers (CIBSE) were conducted on future weather years for this investigation. This investigation ascertains and quantifies the annual energy consumption, carbon emissions, cooling, and heating demand of the selected supermarkets at the three locations under various climatic projections and emission scenarios, which further validates annual temperature rise as a result of climatic variation. The data showed a trend of increasing variations across the UK as one moves southwards, with London and Southampton at the higher side of the spectrum followed by Manchester which has the least variability amongst these three cities. This is the first study which investigates impact of the climate change on the UK supermarkets across different regions by using the real case scenarios.

Aspects moléculaires de l'influence de la température sur la transmission du virus du chikungunya par le moustique Aedes albopictus

Thesis

Jun 2021

Rachel Bellone

Le virus du chikungunya (CHIKV) est un arbovirus émergeant qui, au cours des dernières décennies, s’est largement propagé à l’échelle mondiale. Le virus est transmis par les moustiques du genre Aedes, notamment Aedes albopictus qui est aujourd’hui présent dans une soixantaine de départements en France. Vecteurs de plusieurs agents pathogènes, Ae. albopictus représente une réelle menace de santé publique. L’émergence d’arboviroses est généralement liée à la convergence d’un ensemble de facteurs intrinsèques et extrinsèques affectant le vecteur, l’agent pathogène et l’hôte. Le moustique étant un organisme ectotherme, dont la température interne varie avec celle de l’environnement, il est très sensible aux variations de température du milieu ambiant. La relation entre la température et la transmission des arbovirus reste encore mal comprise, en particulier sur le plan moléculaire. L’objectif général de ce projet est de comprendre comment la température affecte les interactions virus-moustique et influence les cycles de transmission. Pour cela, nous étudions les aspects moléculaires du CHIKV, de son vecteur Ae. albopictus et de leurs interactions sous l’influence de la température. Nos résultats démontrent que la température affecte d’une part l’évolution du CHIKV et d’autre part, l’expression génétique et la composition microbienne du moustique, notamment en réponse à l’infection. Ces données apportent des informations importantes sur la manière dont les systèmes vectoriels peuvent être affectés par la température. La compréhension des mécanismes sous-jacents les interactions virus-moustique avec l’environnement sont essentielles afin de prévenir les épidémies.

Integrating nature-based approaches with Geographic Information Systems for a healthier planet

Article

Full-text available

Nov 2024

Mehtap Özenen

ESTU Journal of Sketchle Nature-based approaches (NBS) provide sustainable solutions to environmental issues by utilizing natural processes and ecosystems. This paper explores how Geographic Information Systems (GIS) support NBS in areas such as climate adaptation, environmental management, disaster planning, water resources management, urban planning, and biodiversity conservation. By integrating GIS with NBS, the study highlights innovative ways to strengthen ecosystem services and address environmental challenges. Case studies from climate adaptation to urban sustainability demonstrate the potential of GIS in enhancing the effectiveness of naturebased solutions for a resilient and sustainable planet.

sketchle Vol4 Issue 7 v04

Article

Full-text available

Nov 2024

Halil Duymuş

Landscape architecture plays a critical role in combating climate change, environmental degradation, and habitat loss. This paper delves into how landscape architects utilize green infrastructure, urban agriculture, and water management systems to enhance environmental sustainability. Emphasizing biodiversity, ecological balance, and improved living standards, landscape architects design nature-inspired solutions that integrate green infrastructure and nature-based approaches. By addressing issues like carbon sequestration, urban heat islands, and sustainable water management, the field offers innovative strategies essential for a resilient and healthy planet.

Peyzaj mimarlığı vizyonuyla gezegenimizi iyileştirmek

Chapter

Full-text available

Oct 2024

Gezegenimiz, artan iklim değişiklikleri, çevre kirlilikleri ve habitat bozulmaları gibi insan kaynaklı sorunlar nedeniyle alarm vermektedir (Selman, 2008). Bu sorunlarla başa çıkmak ve sürdürülebilir bir gelecek inşa etmek için peyzaj mimarlığının üstlenmiş olduğu, kritik rol hakkında bir bilimsel kitap bölümüdür.

Assessing the Impact of Drought and Upstream Dam Construction on Agriculture in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions: A Case Study of the Middle Draa Valley, Morocco

Preprint

Full-text available

Oct 2024

This study assesses the impact of drought and upstream dam construction on agriculture in arid and semi-arid regions with the Middle Draa Valley (MDV) case study in Morocco. This Valley, nestled in the arid landscapes of Morocco, has a rich tapestry of history, culture, and natural beauty. However, its oases are facing a water shortage crisis due to the effects of climate change and human pressure on water resources for irrigation. We analyzed the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to monitor vegetation dynamics in this valley. The SPEI shows a declining trend, indicating increasing water scarcity, which has led to the overexploitation of groundwater and significant vegetation degradation. The NDVI remained relatively stable until 2015 but has since declined, signaling ecosystem deterioration. The correlation between SPEI and NDVI in the oases suggests that vegetation depends not only on precipitation and evapotranspiration but also on other factors such as insufficient releases from upstream dams and the use of groundwater for irrigation. This is confirmed by analyses of the correlation between dam releases and NDVI, as well as data on groundwater table levels. This situation poses an urgent warning for decision-makers to consider which water management measures and agricultural practices to adopt. The most practical solution to avoid further degradation of the oases in the short term is to conserve the remaining groundwater resources exclusively for irrigation date palms and to develop strict long-term water policies.

Integrating Engineering Innovations to Enhance Environmental Resilience: Evaluating the Impact of Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Ozone Depletion, And Aquatic Ecosystem Degradation on Public Health

Article

Full-text available

Sep 2024

This research explores how engineering innovations can enhance environmental resilience by evaluating the impacts of greenhouse gas emissions, ozone depletion, and aquatic ecosystem degradation on public health. The study aims to assess the effects of these environmental challenges on health outcomes and ecosystems, and to review recent advancements in engineering technologies designed to mitigate these impacts. By integrating technological solutions with health and environmental impact assessments, the research seeks to propose comprehensive strategies to improve resilience and reduce health risks associated with environmental degradation. The study will examine the effectiveness of various engineering practices and technologies in addressing greenhouse gas emissions, protecting the ozone layer, and restoring aquatic ecosystems. Recommendations will be formulated to support sustainable development and enhance public health outcomes. The findings are expected to provide valuable insights into how engineering innovations can contribute to environmental and health resilience, offering practical solutions for addressing pressing environmental issues.

Mudanças Climáticas: impacto, mitigação e adaptação

Book

Full-text available

Jul 2024

Iran Carlos Stalliviere Correa

As mudanças climáticas são transformações a longo prazo nos padrões de temperatura e clima. Essas mudanças podem ser de origens naturais, como por meio de variações no ciclo solar. Mas, desde 1800, as atividades humanas têm sido o principal impulsionador das mudanças climáticas, principalmente devido à queima de combustíveis fósseis como carvão, petróleo e gás. A queima desses combustíveis fósseis gera emissões de gases de efeito estufa, que agem como um grande cobertor em torno da Terra, retendo o calor do sol e aumentando as temperaturas. Os principais gases de efeito estufa, que estão causando mudanças climáticas, incluem dióxido de carbono e metano, que são oriundos do uso da gasolina, para movimentar veículos ou carvão, para aquecimento residencial ou obtenção de energia elétrica, por exemplo. O desmatamento de florestas também pode liberar dióxido de carbono. Aterros para lixo são uma das principais fontes de emissões de metano. Energia, indústria, transporte, edificações, agricultura e uso da terra estão entre os principais emissores.

GROUNDWATER LEVEL PREDICTION USING DEEP RECURRENT NEURAL NETWORKS AND UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT

Article

Full-text available

Dec 2023

Groundwater is one of the most important sources of regional water supply for humans. In recent years, several factors have contributed to a significant decline in groundwater levels (GWL) in certain regions. As a result of climate change, such as temperature increase, rainfall decrease, and changes in relative humidity, it is necessary to investigate and model the effects of these factors on GWL. Although a number of researches have been conducted on GWL modeling with machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) algorithms, only a limited number of studies have reported model uncertainty. In this paper, GWL modeling of some piezometric wells has been conducted by considering the effects of the meteorological parameters with Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) algorithms. The models were trained on one piezometric well data and predictions were executed on six other wells. To perform an uncertainty assessment, the models were run 10 times and their means were calculated. Subsequently, their standard deviations were considered to evaluate the outcomes. In addition, the prediction power of the models was validated using Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Normalized Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE), and R-Squared (R2). Finally, for all the six wells that did not participate in the training phase, the prediction functions of the trained models were run 10 times and their accuracy was assessed. The results indicate that LSTM (R2=95.6895, RMSE=0.4744 m, NRMSE=0.0558, MAE=0.3383 m) had a better performance compared to that of GRU (R2=95.2433, RMSE=0.4984 m, NRMSE=0.0586, MAE=0.3658 m) on the GWL modeling.

Représentations Sociales du Stress chez des Déplacés Climatiques de Nan Orèl, Nord'Haiti

Article

Full-text available

Feb 2023

Cette étude questionne le lien établi par des déplacés climatiques de Nan Orèl, un quartier populaire du département du Nord-Ouest d’Haïti, entre les évènements climatiques majeurs (ECM) et le stress provoqué par les catastrophes naturelles afin de déterminer leur stresseur de vie majeur (SVM). C’est une population constamment exposée aux inondations en raison des conditions climatiques extrêmes de sa zone de résidence, faisant face à des phénomènes d'altération et d’anthropisation qui intensifie les processus d'érosion et de lavage de ses sols. Elle est donc fortement exposée aux inondations. L’étude a été conduite à partir d’un questionnaire standard d’association et d’évocation inspiré de l’approche structurale des représentations sociales afin de comprendre la construction commune du stress chez les répondants. Les résultats révèlent que i) 97% de la population ont ressenti des symptômes similaires à ceux du stress post-traumatique ; ii) 100% de la population révèlent avoir souffert de symptômes d’ordre psychosomatique révélateurs du stress généralement vécu à la suite des catastrophes naturelles. 67% décrivent le stress comme des réflexions (pensées intrusives), sans association avec les ECM, qui peuvent rendre les gens malades. Ainsi, pour cette population (82%), le stresseur de vie majeur est plutôt la maladie de ses enfants. Mots clés : Déplacés climatiques, représentations sociales, stress post-traumatique, évènements Climatiques Majeurs, évènements/stresseurs de vie majeurs.

Représentations sociales du stress chez des déplacés climatiques du quartier Nan Orèl, Nord-Ouest d’HaïtiSocial representations of stress among climate displaced people from Nan Orèl district, northwest of Haiti

Article

Full-text available

Aug 2022

This study investigates the relationship between Major Climatic Events (MCE) and Stress among 33 climate displaced people in Nan Orèl, a popular neighbourhood in the North-Western Department of Haiti, to determine their Major Life Stressor (MLS). This population is constantly exposed to flooding due to the extreme climatic conditions of its area of residence facing alteration and anthropic phenomena which intensify the erosion and soil washing processes. The study was conducted using a standard association and evocation questionnaire, inspired by the structural approach of Social Representations, to identify common constructs of stress among the respondents. The results reveal that i) 97% of the population had experienced symptoms similar to post-traumatic stress; ii) 100% of the population said that they had suffered psychosomatic symptoms reflecting the usual stress experienced after natural disasters. Moreover, 67% of the population stated that stress is characterized by intrusive thinking that can lead to sickness and is not related to the ECM. Consequently, for this population (82%), the Major Life Stressor is more likely to be their children’s illness.

Influència del canvi climàtic en la seguretat dels aliments. Un problema real

Article

Full-text available

Dec 2022

Influència del canvi climàtic en la seguretat dels aliments. Un problema real Canvi climàtic i seguretat alimentària The influence of climate change on food security. A real problem Climate change and food security RESUM: El canvi climàtic afectarà diferents elements de la vida de les persones en el nostre planeta. Entre ells, un dels més importants es relaciona amb l'alimentació hu-mana i, més concretament, amb la seguretat dels ali-ments que consumirem. La temperatura és determinant en el creixement dels microorganismes. D'aquesta ma-nera, com més alta és la temperatura més de pressa crei-xen els microorganismes, i es troba una relació directa entre el nombre de microorganismes i la presència de patògens entèrics. En aquest sentit, s'espera un augment significatiu de brots de malalties de transmissió alimen-tària per salmonel·la, però també es produirà un augment de les malalties parasitàries i alguns virus, especialment els enterovirus. Això requerirà un esforç en el control de les condicions que permetin l'arribada d'aquests patò-gens als aliments, assegurar unes temperatures adequa-des de manteniment dels aliments i de cuina i una gestió adequada de les mesures d'higiene en la manipulació i el processament dels aliments. ABSTRACT: Climate change will be affecting different aspects of people's lives on our planet. One of the most important of these aspects involves human nutrition and, more specifically, the safety of the food that we consume. Temperature, in particular, is decisive for the growth of microorganisms. At higher temperatures, microorganisms grow faster, and there is a direct relationship between the number of microorganisms and the presence of enteric pathogens. In this respect, a significant rise is expected in outbreaks of foodborne diseases due to Salmonella , but there will also be an increase in parasitic diseases and in some viruses, especially enteroviruses. This will require a major effort to control the conditions that allow these pathogens to reach food, ensuring suitable temperatures for food maintenance and cooking, and appropriate management of hygiene measures in food handling and processing.

Predicting the risk of heatstroke: Development of a highly accurate model

Preprint

Full-text available

Jun 2022

Background High temperatures in urban areas caused by global climate change and urban heat island intensification have led to an increase in the number people experiencing heat related illness, the most serious of which is heatstroke. To help prevent heatstroke, an accurate model should be developed that will predict dangerous conditions so that people can take preventive actions. Method The goal of this study was to compare three methods for predicting heatstroke risk: multiple regression analysis (MR), generalized additive model (GAM), and time-stratified case-crossover analysis (TC). Susceptibility to heatstroke is likely to be dependent on year-wise trends and is sensitive to training data, but most previous models have only tested a limited amount of training data. In this study we investigated the optimal number of years to use as training data. By comparing the errors of each method, the error influencing factors in the training data was identified. Results The TC errors were the smallest (p<0.005) and much less sensitive to the training data than others. The MR and GAM errors were significantly larger when the number of extremely hot days differed between the training and test data (p<0.01, p<0.05). All three methods tended to increase in accuracy as more past data years were added to the training data, but to decrease in accuracy after a certain point. The optimal accuracy was obtained by using data from three or four years. Conclusions As a result, a highly accurate risk model that was robust to training data was developed using the odds ratios produced by TC with low sensitivity to training data, something that has not been possible with previous models. This modeling approach is universally applicable and can be used to make urban areas safer in future.

Decadal trend of synoptic temperature variability over the Northern Hemisphere in winter

Preprint

Full-text available

Sep 2022

Synoptic temperature variability gives rise to cold waves and extreme cold events in winter. Based on four reanalysis datasets, this study investigates the decadal trend of synoptic temperature variability in boreal winter during the period from 1980 to 2019, with particular focus on the sharp drops in synoptic-scale temperature, which are associated with cold waves. The result shows that the synoptic-scale standard deviation of temperature decreases significantly with a trend of − 0.15K/decade (− 0.09 to − 0.21 K/decade among reanalysis datasets) over continental regions in mid to high latitudes. Correspondingly, the rapid cooling events (RCEs), defined based on the day-to-day temperature decrease exceeding 6 K, also shows a general decreasing trend in terms of its frequency and intensity, and the strongest decreasing trend occurs over the eastern North America (ENA) and western Eurasia (WE). The weakening of the RCEs is closely connected to the decreased trend of eddy kinetic energy (EKE), suggesting that the weakened transient eddy activities may have mitigated the synoptic-scale temperature variability and the associated RCEs over mid to high latitudes. This study highlights that the decreased synoptic temperature variability leads to fewer and weaker RCEs at synoptic scale over mid to high latitudes in winter, in addition to the warming trend of mean state.

Multivariate analysis on compound events of humidity, solar radiation on heat-related health risks by vulnerable groups in Seoul, Korea

Preprint

Full-text available

Aug 2022

We have analyzed effects of compound events on heat-related health risks by vulnerable groups in Seoul Metropolitan Area, South Korea from 2012 to 2020. A multivariate analysis was conducted for heat-related health impacts by combination of meteorological factors. We have found that heat-related health risks have increased by compound events effects by humidity and solar radiation. Heat-related patients occurred more frequently in higher humidity or intense solar radiation conditions than in usual conditions. All-cause mortalities were higher with high vapor pressure (6.4%, 95% CI: 4.5–8.4%) and large amount of solar radiation (7.5%, 95% CI: 5.2–9.7%) conditions. Infectious and metabolic mortalities have increased about 10% in higher humidity or intense solar radiation conditions. The effects of compound events were different by vulnerable groups. Female’s metabolic mortalities were higher (24.3%, 95% CI: 11.2–37.5%) with solar radiation. The circulatory mortalities of outdoor workers (10.1%, 95% CI: -5.6–25.7%), daytime occurrence (12.5%, 95% CI: 7.6–17.4%), and lower education (13.9%, 95% CI: 7.6–20.1%) has also increased by solar radiation. Mortality of infectious diseases has increased in elderlies (23.5%, 95% CI: 10.3–36.7%) by duration of sunshine. It shows heat waves warnings and policies should consider other meteorological factors other than temperature.

Comparative evaluation of accuracy of the multiple methods of heatstroke risk model including time-stratified case-crossover analysis

Preprint

Full-text available

Jun 2022

Background High temperatures in urban areas owing to climate change and urban heat islands have led to an increase in the number of heatstroke patients. To prevent heatstroke, accurate heatstroke patient prediction model should be used to predict and alert people to their risk. However, most previous models have not tested sufficient training data, although susceptibility to heatstroke is likely to be dependent on year-wise trends and is susceptible to training data. We investigated an accurate heatstroke risk model that is robust to the training data. By examining the factors affecting the accuracy and trade-off between the quantity and quality of adding old data to training data, the method of selecting training data for constructing an accurate model was also investigated. Method We compared the accuracies of three methods: multiple regression analysis (MR), generalized additive model (GAM), and time-stratified case-crossover analysis (TC). The training data for all combinations from 2012 were tested. By comparing the errors of each method, we identified the error influencing factors in the training data. Results The TC errors were the smallest (p < 0.005) and much less sensitive to the training data than others. Best accuracy odds ratios were 1.41–1.44. The error was significantly larger when the number of extremely hot days differed between the training and test data in MR and GAM (p < 0.01, p < 0.05). All three methods tended to increase accuracy up to a certain point and decrease from the middle of the year when adding past years retroactively from the most recent year in training data. Conclusions By using the odds ratios produced by TC with low sensitivity to training data, we can develop highly accurate heatstroke risk model that are robust to training data, which has not been possible with previous models. If data are to be included continuously, a model constructed from three or four years of data from the latest one is the most accurate.

Feature extraction and classification of climate change risks: a bibliometric analysis

Article

Full-text available

Jul 2022
ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS

Risks brought by climate change are inevitable obstacles to global development. Clarifying the features of climate change risks helps us to further understand and cope with climate change. There lacks a systematic review of climate change risks in terms of feature extraction and classification. The bibliometric analysis can be used to analyze and extract climate change risk features. The literature in the field of climate change was searched in the Web of Science database. Coauthors, citations, bibliographic coupling, co-citations, and keyword co-occurrence were analyzed. From five dimensions including nature, politics, economy, society, and culture, the risk features of climate change were extracted and summarized. Through text mining and cluster analysis, the climate change risk feature system was established, which is embodied in five different aspects: ecosystem and sustainability; uncertainty, vulnerability, and efficiency; behavior and decision-making; governance and management; and adaptation and mitigation. The feature system reflects that the current climate change risk presents strong variability and that the risk boundary is gradually blurred. The areas affected by risk are expanding and deepening. The strategies and governance for addressing risks are gradually diversified. This research contributes to the domain of climate change risk identification and assessment. The features of climate change indicate that we need to adjust policymaking and managerial practices for climate change in the future. Interdisciplinary cooperation, human cognition and preferences, public participation in global governance, and other unnatural factors related to climate change should be strengthened with a more positive attitude.

Distribution Variations of Chigger Mites Collected in Jinan, Jeollabuk-do

Article

Dec 2021

Gross Domestic Regional Product, Population and Environmental Quality: Analysis of 33 Provinces in Indonesia

Article

Full-text available

Oct 2021

In recent years environmental problems have become the focus of public attention in the world. The growth of the industry triggered by population growth is the main cause of the emergence of environmental problems. This research was conducted to determine the impact of Gross Domestic Regional Product growth, population growth on environmental quality. This study involved 33 provinces in Indonesia as a unit of analysis. Secondary data was collected from the Indonesian Central Bureau of Statistics. Data analysis was performed using panel least square with software Warp-PLS version 6.0. Previous research deployed CO2 Emission and pollution as an indicator of environmental performance, this research used a score of environmental quality index which covers water quality index, index of air quality and index of forest cover. Findings showed Gross Domestic Product and population have a negative effect on environmental quality. This research indicates government need to that encourages the household and industrial sectors to use environmentally friendly energy, limits and controls the conversion of forests and agricultural land into land for settlement, agriculture, and industry, and encourages the household and industrial sectors to provide waterways and ensure that liquid waste discharged into rivers, lakes or waterways does not harm the environment. Keywords : Gross Domestic Regional Product, Population, Environmental Quality