Article

North-East Asian Super Grid for 100% renewable energy supply: Optimal mix of energy technologies for electricity, gas and heat supply options

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Abstract

In order to define a cost optimal 100% renewable energy system, an hourly resolved model has been created based on linear optimization of energy system parameters under given constrains. The model is comprised of five scenarios for 100% renewable energy power systems in North-East Asia with different high voltage direct current transmission grid development levels, including industrial gas demand and additional energy security. Renewables can supply enough energy to cover the estimated electricity and gas demands of the area in the year 2030 and deliver more than 2000 TW hth of heat on a cost competitive level of 84 €/MW hel for electricity. Further, this can be accomplished for a synthetic natural gas price at the 2013 Japanese liquefied natural gas import price level and at no additional generation costs for the available heat. The total area system cost could reach 69.4 €/MW hel, if only the electricity sector is taken into account. In this system about 20% of the energy is exchanged between the 13 regions, reflecting a rather decentralized character which is supplied 27% by stored energy. The major storage technologies are batteries for daily storage and power-to-gas for seasonal storage. Prosumers are likely to play a significant role due to favourable economics. A highly resilient energy system with very high energy security standards would increase the electricity cost by 23% to 85.6 €/MW hel. The results clearly show that a 100% renewable energy based system is feasible and lower in cost than nuclear energy and fossil carbon capture and storage alternatives.

Supplementary resource

... The feasibility of a 100% renewable power system has been demonstrated as a promising carbon mitigation option in many researches, which notably relies on sizeable storage facilities and advanced transmission networks [14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21]. The superior advantages of low carbon and environmental value enable the policy-driven boom of renewable energy deployment, which has gradually bloomed into a new techno-social paradigm. ...
... Moreover, the dynamic simulation model [25], the integrated MARKAL-EFOM system [26] and the bottom-up material flow analysis model [27] are conducted to analyze China's power transition. Many scholars have investigated the possibility of a 100% renewable energy system in the level of nations [18,28], regions [14,16,17] and the whole world [19,20]. The crucial flexibility for hosting a high-share renewable system can be provided by developing optimal mixes of renewable power supply to accommodate temporality issues, demand response solutions, supply-side management of dispatchable renewables, sector coupling, grid extensions and energy storage [24]. ...
... Continuing cost declines underline renewable power as a low-cost climate and decarbonization solution. The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of renewable power is promising much less than that of coal power with CCS, which can validly reduce the power supply cost [14,16,17]. If the energy storage industry achieves its technical revolution, together with power grid flexibility solutions, the high-share renewable power system would be more economical. ...
Article
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With a high-carbon fuel mix and enormous space for efficiency potential, the power sector is critical to cope with global emission mitigation targets. The climate targets of less than 2 °C and even ambitious 1.5 °C confront China's power sector due to the rising momentum of power demand and the power mix dominated by coal power. Considering the potential carbon-emissions space of the power sector in China, this paper sets the alternative high-share renewable power, 1.5 and 2 °C scenarios that necessitate the zero-emissions and even negative-emissions for the power sector by 2050, and then proposes the pathways and outlines challenges to demonstrate the arduousness and uncertainty of the mega-project of power transition. The results indicate that a package of options is needed for the transition while unconventional bio-energy is the key to a 1.5 °C scenario. Notably, the coal power represents the largest barrier to low-carbon transition owing to the rising installation and massive stranded assets during the long-term reconfiguration of the power sector.
... Transmission capacity investments and hourly interregional energy flows are determined endogenously in the model and are implemented using a traditional network optimization approach without considering power flow. Estimates of HVDC transmission costs and losses are calculated using parameters from Bogdanov and Breyer (2016) based on distances between population-weighted regional centers, and whether the connection is entirely on land or partially marine, see Table 1. This calculation takes place in the GIS package of our model setup. ...
... Lehtveer, Mattsson, and Hedenus 2017) and Capacity Expansion Models (CEMs) may use regions the size of France (e.g. Bogdanov and Breyer 2016). In such cases, we believe that resource classes are crucial for capturing the priority order and varying potentials of renewable investments within model regions, as well as resolving geographical smoothing of intermittent generation in greater detail. ...
... To our knowledge there is no model package with the same level of flexibility at the global level as displayed by the effort presented here. Recently there has been a welcome move towards more open energy models and data input (Bogdanov and Breyer 2016;Brown, Hörsch, and Schlachtberger 2018;Huppmann et al. 2019). The transparency and reproducibility that this movement brings are important. ...
Preprint
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Energy system models are increasingly being used to explore scenarios with large shares of variable renewables. This requires input data of high spatial and temporal resolution and places a considerable preprocessing burden on the modeling team. Here we present a new code set with an open source license for automatic generation of input data for large-scale energy system models for arbitrary regions of the world, including sub-national regions, along with an associated generic capacity expansion model of the electricity system. We use ECMWF ERA5 global reanalysis data along with other public geospatial datasets to generate detailed supply curves and hourly capacity factors for solar photovoltaic power, concentrated solar power, onshore and offshore wind power, and existing and future hydropower. Further, we use a machine learning approach to generate synthetic hourly electricity demand series that describe current demand, which we extend to future years using regional SSP scenarios. Finally, our code set automatically generates costs and losses for HVDC interconnections between neighboring regions. The usefulness of our approach is demonstrated by several different case studies based on input data generated by our code. We show that our model runs of a future European electricity system with high share of renewables are in line with results from more detailed models, despite our use of global datasets and synthetic demand.
... The South African energy system was modelled with the LUT Energy System Transition Model described in (Bogdanov and Breyer, 2016;Breyer et al., 2018;Bogdanov et al., 2019). The energy system model is a linear optimisation tool developed to determine the optimal investment and generation technology mix required to meet the electricity demand in South Africa from 2015 until 2050. ...
... The energy system is optimised in addition to the prosumer capacities, which avoid any distortion of the overall system. The model overview is shown in Figure 2. Detailed model description, equations and applied constraints can be found in (Bogdanov and Breyer, 2016;Breyer et al., 2018;Bogdanov et al., 2019). ...
... The upper limits for all RE technologies were estimated according to Bogdanov and Breyer (2016) and lower limits are obtained from Farfan and Breyer (2017). Upper and lower limits of RE and fossil fuels are provided in the Supplementary Material (Tables S6 and S7). ...
Article
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Transition to a cost effective and fossil carbon-free energy system is imminent for South Africa, so is the miti-gation of issues associated with the 'water-energy nexus' and their consequent impacts on the climate. The country's key fossil carbon mitigation option lies in the energy sector, especially in shifting away from the coal-dependent power system. Pathways towards a fully decarbonised and least cost electricity system are investigated for South Africa. The energy transition is simulated for five scenarios, assessing the impact of various factors such as sector coupling, with and without greenhouse gas (GHG) emission costs. South Africa's energy transition is simulated using an hourly resolved model until 2050. This modelling approach synthesises and reflects in-depth insights of how the demand from the power sector can be met. The optimisation for each 5-year time period is carried out based on assumed costs and technological status until 2050. The modelling outcomes reveal that solar PV and wind energy, supplying about 71% and 28% of the demand respectively in the Best Policy Scenario for 2050, can overcome coal dependency of the power sector. The levelised cost of electricity increases just slightly from 49.2 €/MWh in 2015 to 50.8 €/MWh in the Best Policy Scenario, whereas it increases significantly to 104.9 €/MWh in the Current Policy Scenario by 2050. Further, without considering GHG emissions costs, the cost of electricity slightly increases from 44.1 €/MWh in 2015 to 47.1 €/MWh in the Best Policy Scenario and increases up to 62.8 €/MWh in the Current Policy Scenario by 2050. The cost of electricity is 25% lower in the Best Policy Scenario than in the Current Policy Scenario without factoring in GHG emissions costs and further declined to 50% with GHG emissions costs. The Best Policy Scenario without GHG emissions costs led to 96% renewables and the remaining 4% is supplied by coal and gas turbines, indicating pure market economics. The results indicate that a 100% renewable energy system is the least-cost, least-water intensive, least-GHG-emitting and most job-rich option for the South African energy system in the mid-term future. No new coal and nuclear power plants are installed in the least-cost pathway, and existing fossil fuel capacities are phased out based on their technical lifetime.
... The model is based on the LUT Energy System model [11,12,13]. Additionally, this study is a more precise investigation for Germany of a broader global PV prosumer optimisation [14] and the methodology can be applied to other countries with similar energy demands and housing types as in Germany. ...
... The input data for PV electricity generation was available for every region in full hourly resolution in the unit of kWh (kWp·h) according to [11,12]. By multiplying those numbers with the installed PV capacity, the PV generation profile for a given capacity can be obtained. ...
... If none of the energy storage options are able to cover the demand, the refilling demand is covered by the grid. In this case the TES gets Assumptions for financial values of system components and grid prices are based on the LUT Energy System model and available (cf. [11,12,13], Table A.3, A.4). For BEVs, storage costs are not considered as it is assumed that the batteries are paid with the car anyway. ...
Article
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Coupling of energy sectors within the emerging residential PV prosumer systems is necessary for an optimised use of the houseowners' produced electricity. But the pure availability of different energy technologies in the system is not enough. The optimising of electricity usage as well as the capacities of PV generators, storage technologies, heat pumps and battery electric vehicles shall be achieved by optimal system configuration and energy handling between the system components. With the simulation of several configurations, not only the best solution in a technical point of view can be achieved, the need of finding the most financially beneficial system composition for single-family houses and tenements is possible. This study provides a detailed model for an average German single-family households and tenements and possible results for the energy transition period until 2050 for an optimised energy system comprised of optimised PV, stationary batteries and different heat storage capacities. The assessment of an optimised system was made by analysing cost saving potentials compared to a 100% grid supply, cost development, self-consumption ratio, electricity and heat cover ratios as well as least cost component capacities. Most noticeable outcomes can be observed by using a vehicle-to-home car, where a car can mostly take over the tasks of a stationary battery and by introducing a solidarity model using this type of car in tenement systems.
... The PV prosumer model follows the principles of the LUT Energy System Transition model, which is based on an hourly resolution (Bogdanov and Breyer, 2016;Breyer et al., 2018;Ram et al., 2017a). To determine the cost optimised (least ATCE) PV and stationary battery capacities, simulations were performed on an iterative basis over PV capacities, ranging from 1 -30 kWp and stationary battery capacities, ranging from 1 -50 kWhcap, with intervals of 1 kWp and 1 kWhcap each for PV and stationary battery capacities respectively. ...
... PV electricity generation profiles were available for every region with full hourly resolution in kWh, according to Bogdanov and Breyer (2016) as shown in Figure 2. These are adopted for the range of PV capacities used in the PV Prosumer model to generate the household PV generation profiles from 2015 until 2050. ...
... Global full load hours of optimally tilted PV systems (Bogdanov and Breyer, 2016). ...
Article
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Globally, PV prosumers account for a significant share of the total installed solar PV capacity, which is a growing trend with ever-increasing retail electricity prices. Further propelled by performance improvements of solar PV and innovations that allow for greater consumer choice, with additional benefits such as cost reductions and availability of incentives. PV prosumers may be one of the most important enablers of the energy transition. PV prosumers are set to gain the most by maximising self-consumption, while avoiding large amounts of excess electricity being fed into the grid. Additionally, electricity and heat storage technologies, heat pumps and battery electric vehicles are complementary to achieve the highest possible self-consumption shares for residential PV prosumer systems, which can reach grid-parity within this decade in most regions of the world. This research finds the cost optimal mix of the various complementary technologies such as batteries, electric vehicles, heat pumps and thermal heat storage for PV prosumers across the world by exploring 4 different scenarios. Furthermore, the research presents the threshold for economical maximum battery capacity per installed PV capacity, along with self-consumption ratios, demand cover ratios and heat cover ratios for 145 different regions across the world. This is a first of its kind study to conduct a global analysis of PV prosumers with a range of options to meet their complete energy demand from a future perspective, up to 2050. Maximising self-consumption from solar PV generation to meet all energy needs will be the most economical option in the future, for households across most regions of the world.
... (Huber et al., 2015) quantified the capacities of generation, transmission and storage infrastructures in a low carbon South East Asia system by 2050, and concluded that battery storage plays a significant role in strict low emission constraints scenarios. (Bogdanov and Breyer, 2016) ...
... The majority of the integrated models and some dispatch models ( In an effort to represent VRES in different locations in a country, a few models divide Least cost pathways for a sustainable ASEAN electricity system are presented in (Huber et al., 2015), and a URBS-ASEAN model is used in the study to divide 11 countries in South-East Asia into 33 regions based on load centres and location of energy resources. (Bogdanov and Breyer, 2016) divided 5 countries in North-East ...
... uses the PVGIS methodology, which in addition to GHI also takes into account sky obstructions by hills or mountains in determining the hourly output of PV plants. The modelling of run-of-river and reservoir hydro output can be based on capacity factors for different seasons Eser et al., 2016), or by using monthly precipitation data to estimate annual generation for run-of-river hydro power plants (Bogdanov and Breyer, 2016). ...
Conference Paper
The electricity sector of West African countries is experiencing several challenges including, low electricity access rates, high usage of oil generators, frequent power outages and high electricity tariff rates. In an effort to solve these challenges, the West African Power Pool (WAPP) aims to interconnect all fourteen countries and develop regional power plants to benefit multiple countries. This research evaluates the role of renewable energy sources (RES) and interconnections in providing access to affordable and reliable electricity supply. This is achieved by first developing a demand model called HeDEMO (Hourly electricity DEmand MOdel) to generate hourly electricity demand in the year 2016 and 2030. The hourly demand in the residential sector of each country is modelled using a bottom-up methodology for urban and rural households, while the non-residential sectors are modelled using a top-down methodology. Next, a multi-regional economic dispatch model of West Africa’s interconnected electricity network is developed using the 2030 hourly demand dataset. The dispatch model adequately represents the intermittent characteristics of RES in different locations of the region. Six scenarios are optimized to evaluate the impact of high integration of grid-connected RES and additional interconnections. Finally, a multi criteria decision analysis is applied to assess and rank these six scenarios, based on eight sustainability criteria. The results indicate that in 2030, electricity demand in West Africa is forecasted to be five times its 2016 level. Furthermore, most of the planned interconnections by WAPP will be underutilized in 2030. Thereby providing an opportunity to integrate unexplored RES in the region. The demand methodology presented in this thesis can be applicable to developing countries that have challenges of scarce historical hourly demand data, electricity supply-demand gap, and urban/rural economic divide. Additionally, the sustainability assessment of the 2030 scenarios will help inform energy policy makers on optimal RES integration and interconnection expansion policies for the region.
... The model is able to provide the data in an hourly resolution and includes RE technologies, storage devices and power transmission system. The model was introduced and published for the first time through a study for Northeast Asia based on 100% RE supply in 2030 [53]. Then, the model is further developed and applied to several other regions and the world [54][55][56][57][58][59]. ...
... The detailed description of the model and respective mathematical equations can be found in the Supplementary Material. Further information has been given in Bogdanov and Breyer [53] and Breyer et al. [55]. The system also consists of PV prosumers in three sectors, including residential [62], commercial and industrial. ...
... Two examples of hourly resolution profiles for single-axis tracking PV and onshore wind power for the MENA region are presented in Fig. 2, and are calculated according to Refs. [53,68]. The hourly resolution profiles for fixed tilted PV and CSP solar field are shown in the Supplementary Material (Fig. S2). ...
Article
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This research explores the feasibility of 100% renewable energy (RE) systems for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region for assumptions of the year 2030. The demand for three sectors are taken into account: power, non-energetic industrial gas and seawater desalination. Three strategical scenarios are discussed, namely Region, Area and Integrated, mainly differing in level of regional grid interconnection and sector coupling. Solar photovoltaics (PV) and wind energy are found to be the most cost-competitive RE sources with the highest potential in the region covering more than 90% of the generation capacity in all the considered scenarios. The variability of RE is solved via energy storage, surplus electricity generation and electricity grids. The estimated overall levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) lies between 40.3 and 52.8 €/MWh, depending on the scenarios. The total LCOE decreased by 17% as a result of sector coupling compared to the interconnected power sector alone. Power-to-gas technology not only functions as a seasonal storage by storing surplus electricity produced mainly from wind power and partially from solar PV, but provides also the required gas for the non-energetic industrial gas sector. Battery storage complements solar PV as a diurnal storage to meet the electricity demand during the evening and night time. Seawater reverse osmosis desalination powered by renewables could potentially be a proper solution to overcome the water challenges in the MENA region at affordable cost of 1.4 €/m³. A comparison with a BAU strategy shows that a 100% renewable energy-based power system is 55–69% cheaper than a BAU strategy without and with greenhouse gas emission costs.
... Kazakhstan's power system was modelled with the LUT Energy System Transition modelling tool [30,15]. The LUT model simulates an energy system development under specific given conditions. ...
... The generation profiles for single-axis tracking, optimally fixed tilted PV, solar CSP and wind energy were calculated according to [30] using global weather data for the year 2005 from NASA [32,33] and German Aerospace Centre [34]. The hydropower feed-in profiles are computed based on the monthly resolved precipitation data for the year 2005 as a normalised sum of precipitation in the regions based on [58]. ...
... Integration of different sectors can be very valuable for the system as it was seen for other regions [30,66], but at the same time it can provoke additional problems, such as resource limitations, mainly due to increased generation demand. Fig. 6 presents the power system structure and generation for the power and heat integrated system scenario. ...
Article
Transition towards 100% renewable energy supply is a challenging aim for many regions in the world. Even in regions with excellent availability of wind and solar resources, such factors as limited availability of flexible renewable energy resources, low flexibility of demand, and high seasonality of energy supply and demand can impede the transition. All these factors can be found for the case of Kazakhstan, a mostly steppe country with harsh continental climate conditions and an energy intensive economy dominated by fossil fuels. Results of the simulation using the LUT Energy System Transition modelling tool show that even under these conditions, the power and heat supply system of Kazakhstan can transition towards 100% renewable energy by 2050. A renewable-based electricity only system will be lower in cost than the existing fossil-based system, with levelised cost of electricity of 54 €/MWh in 2050. The heat system transition requires installation of substantial storage capacities to compensate for seasonal heat demand variations. Electrical heating will become the main source of heat for both district and individual heating sectors with heat cost of about 45 €/MWh and electricity cost of around 56 €/MWh for integrated sectors in 2050. According to these results, transition towards a 100% renewable power and heat supply system is technically feasible and economically viable even in countries with harsh climatic conditions.
... This study contributes to the various existing studies on the energy transition pathways for Bangladesh. However, it goes a few steps further by considering the multi-nodal approach with an hourly resolution for an entire transition year [29,30,42] in addition, to its broader power generation, storage and flexibility options including grid balancing among the regions. Further, it identifies the risks associated with future energy policies of the Government of Bangladesh, like energy security in this changing geo-political world, increasing greenhouse gas emissions, climate change and high electricity costs and the potential opportunities in embracing renewables. ...
... The modelling was performed using LUT Energy System Transition model, which is summarised below. More detailed information about the model and its inputs can be found in Bogdanov and Breyer [42,43]. ...
... The generation profiles for single-axis tracking and optimally tilted PV, solar CSP, wind energy and hydropower were provided as an input data to the model. The feed-in profiles were calculated according to Bogdanov and Breyer [42], whereas single-axis tracking PV was modelled according to Afanasyeva et al. [44]. For the base year 2015, installed capacities of solar PV, wind and hydro were taken from Farfan and Breyer [69]. ...
... Bogdanov and Breyer [29] 2016 Northeast Asia is divided into 13 regions interconnected via HVDC transmission network. The simulation was carried out based on high spatially-temporally resolution. ...
... A linear optimisation algorithm with high spatially and temporally resolved data are applied to create and analyse an energy system based on a mix of RE and energy storage technologies with large grid interconnection [3,14,29,52]. The considered region for energy system analysis is the Americas (North, Central and South America). ...
... Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 105 (2019) 187-205 calculate the feed-in wind time series due to higher full load hours (FLH) and lower levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) [65,66]. The hourly values have been calculated based on a spatial aggregation method [29]. It is assumed that the first 10% and the second 10% of the area with the highest potential are weighted by 0.3, 20-30% of the area with the highest potential is weighted by 0.2, and finally 30-40% and 40-50% of the area with the highest potential are weighted by 0.1. ...
Article
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The Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris Agreement, as the two biggest climate action initiatives, address the need to shift towards a fully sustainable energy system. The deployment of renewable energy, especially solar and wind power, decreases carbon dioxide emissions, but presents issues of resource intermittency. In this study, a cost-optimised 100% renewable energy based system is analysed and quantified for the Americas for the reference year 2030 using high spatially and temporally resolved weather data. Several scenarios have been applied, from a decentralised power system towards a fully centralised and interconnected system, taking into account a mix of renewable energy, energy storage and transmission networks. This research aims to evaluate the benefits of an interconnected energy system for the Americas. The levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) is between 48.8 and 59.0 €/MWh depending on the chosen scenario. The results show that the LCOE and total annualised cost drop by 14% and 15%, respectively, in a centralised power system. The optimised utilisation of transmission grids leads to less energy storage requirement. Sector coupling brings further benefits by reducing additional 4% of LCOE, where electricity demand for power, seawater desalination and non-energetic industrial gas sectors have been supplied. A comparison between the interconnected Americas and North and South America individually shows a reduction of 1.6% and 4.0% for the total annual system cost and LCOE. Although the cost of the energy system decreased due to wide grid interconnection, substantial benefits have not been achieved as reported earlier for a Pan-American energy system. A scenario with synthetic natural gas (SNG) trading through a liquefied natural gas value chain has also been presented. The results suggest that local SNG production cost in the assumed consumption centre is almost the same as the cost of imported SNG.
... Table 3 List and characteristics of the reviewed bottom-up long-term energy system models. [118] [114,117] Energy sectors covered . These models can be grouped into different sub-classes. ...
... For each step, the optimization target is usually the minimization of the total annualized energy system cost. This is the case of the LUT energy system transition model [114] developed by the Lappeenranta University of Technology [115] that has been applied to numerous applications such as India [116] and Pakistan [117]. ...
... It is achievable lowering the resolution in sector coupling as shown by Balmorel [112] and eMix [121]. Mahbub et al. [118] and the LUT model [114,117] from Lappeenranta university have demonstrated that a high time resolution in long-term models is possible if a myopic approach is chosen instead of perfect foresight with all the already mentioned limits that this choice produces. ...
Article
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This paper reviews the classification schemes used for bottom-up energy system modelling and proposes a novel one as re-elaboration of the previous schemes. Moreover, this paper identifies that the main challenges of this research field rotate around the concept of resolution. A matrix of challenges in which four main fields are identified: resolution in time, in space, in techno-economic detail and in sector-coupling. These main fields are divided into different levels of resolution: low, medium and high. The use of a low resolution introduces errors in the modelling as demonstrated by different studies. Several existing bottom-up energy system models are reviewed in order to classify them according to the proposed approach and map them through the proposed matrix. 13 different models are analyzed in the category of bottom-up short-term and 9 as bottom-up long-term energy system models. The following mapping shows how several models reach a high level of resolution in one or more than one area. However, the ultimate challenge is the simultaneous achievement of high resolution in all these fields. The literature review has shown how this final aim is not reached by any model at the current stage and it highlights the gap and weaknesses of this branch of research and the direction versus which is important to work to improve this type of modelling.
... The datasets for solar irradiation components and wind speed are taken from NASA databases 1,2 and partly reprocessed by the German Aerospace Center 3 . The regional average generation profiles for PV, solar CSP and wind energy are calculated according to Bogdanov and Breyer (2016) 4 . Wind turbines full load hours are calculated for the case on Enercom E-101 turbine at 150m hub height. ...
... The datasets for solar irradiation components and wind speed are taken from NASA databases 1,2 and partly reprocessed by the German Aerospace Center 3 . The regional average generation profiles for PV, solar CSP and wind energy are calculated according to Bogdanov and Breyer (2016) 4 . Wind turbines full load hours are calculated for the case on Enercom E-101 turbine at 150m hub height. ...
... For Russia, the Asian direction of electric power cooperation and participation in the Asian Super Grid megaproject become important and promising [1][2][3][4]. It envisages electric power integration of Russia with China, Japan and South Korea and can give both economic and environmental effects [5][6][7]. ...
... Technical and economic indicators adopted in the calculations, and fuel prices (the most likely values for 2020- 2030) [5,6,[18][19][20] are given in Tables I and II. Power plants on fossil fuel (coal, natural gas), nuclear power plants, hydroelectric power plants, wind and solar power plants based on PV systems are considered. ...
... Key feature of the model is its flexibility and expandability, which allows modelling of energy systems on local, national, regional or global level and for a variety of scenarios. The LUT model has been described in detail by Bogdanov and Breyer [31] and Breyer et al. [6]. A flowchart of main input data, output data and operation sequence of the model is presented in Fig. 4. ...
... Feed-in full load hours (FLH) for optimally fixed-tilted solar PV, CSP and wind energy in Iran are calculated according to the approach described in [31] and for single-axis tracking PV according to [49]. The weather data is based on the NASA dataset for the year 2005 [50,51] and temporal and spatial resolutions of the dataset are hourly and 0.45°×0.45°, ...
Article
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Transition of Iran's power system from 2015 to 2050 through three scenarios was modelled. Two scenarios present a transition pathway towards a fully renewable run power system with different involved sectors (power only, power sector coupled with desalination and non-energetic gas sectors). The third scenario is based on the country's current policies. The energy model performs an hourly resolution to guarantee meeting energy demand for every hour of the whole year. It is found that renewable energy resources in Iran can satisfy 625 TWh of power sector demand in 2050. Further, it is technically and economically feasible that electricity demand for supplying 101 million m³ desalinated water and 249 TWhLHV synthetic natural gas for non-energetic industrial gas demand can be supplied via renewable resources. A 100% renewable power system with 54 €/MWhel levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) is more cost-effective than the current power system in Iran with 88.3 €/MWhel LCOE in 2015. LCOE of the system can decrease further and reach to 41.3 €/MWhel in 2050 via sector coupling. On the other hand, the current policies of the country lead to an inefficient power system with a LCOE of 128 €/MWhel and 188 Mt/a emitted CO2 in 2050.
... The LUT Energy System Transition modelling tool (Bogdanov et al., 2019;Bogdanov and Breyer, 2016;Kilickaplan et al., 2017;Ram et al., 2017a) simulates an energy system under given conditions, which is applied for 5-year time periods from 2015 to 2050. For each period, the model defines a cost optimal energy system structure and operation mode for the given set of constraints that are power demand, available generation and storage technologies, financial and technical assumptions, and limits on installed capacity for all applied technologies. ...
... The Northeast Asian region is comprised of the fastest growing economies, with around a 25% share of the global GDP and 22% of the global population (Haysom et al., 2015). With rapid industrialisation, unprecedented economic progress and a soaring appetite for energy, the total electricity consumption that is around 6847 TWh in 2015, is estimated to soar up to 15,078 TWh by 2050 (IEA, 2016;Bogdanov and Breyer, 2016). Renewable energy is high on the agenda for countries across Northeast Asia, with excellent wind and solar resources particularly in Mongolia (Breyer et al., 2015). ...
Article
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Aside from reducing the energy sector’s negative impacts on the environment, renewable power generation technologies are creating new wealth and becoming important job creators for the 21st century. Employment creation over the duration of the global energy transition is an important aspect to explore, which could have policy ramifications around the world. This research focuses on the employment impact of an accelerated uptake of renewable electricity generation that sees the world derive 100% of its electricity from renewable sources by 2050, in order to meet the goals set by the Paris Agreement. An analytical job creation assessment for the global power sector from 2015 to 2050 is estimated and presented on a regional basis. It is found that the global direct jobs associated with the electricity sector increases from about 21 million in 2015 to nearly 35 million in 2050. Solar PV, batteries and wind power are the major job creating technologies during the energy transition from 2015 to 2050. This is the first global study presenting job creation projections for energy storage. The results indicate that a global energy transition will have an overall positive impact on the future stability and growth of economies around the world.
... Davarpanah). taken into consideration (Khojasteh et al., 2017;Bogdanov and Breyer, 2016). ...
Article
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Energy accessibility especially electrical energy is considered as one of the most appealing factors to achieve energy sustainability. The purpose of this study is to investigate energy sustainability using renewable energies for two high potential cities in the southeast of Iran until the year 2030. In this regard, Homer software is used to evaluate economic and technical analyses of PV-wind-diesel hybrid system for the two cities by the data gathering which was collected from Iran's meteorological organization. Therefore, the average of solar radiation per month for Zabol and Zahak were about 9 and 9.1 (h/d). Also, mean wind speeds are calculated 5.35 m/s and 4.7 m/s for Zabol and Zahak respectively which proposed that these cities have high potential in order to electrical production by a hybrid system. Furthermore, the amount of electricity production by PV array for Zabol and Zahak were 1700 (kWh/yr) and 1669 (kWh/yr) respectively, and the amount of electricity production by wind turbine were 9036 (kWh/yr) and 7263(kWh/yr) for Zabol and Zahak respectively. Consequently, it is of elaborated that the investments on solar and wind energy sectors for both cities would be economically justified.
... In a similar study for the North-East Asian super grid context [163], the same authoring team showcases the significance of grid integration to make optimal use of available RES-E resources. Highly efficient wind power displaces decentralized solar-PV capacity. ...
Article
Globally interconnected power grids are proposed as a future concept to facilitate decarbonisation of the electricity system by enabling the harnessing and sharing of vast amounts of renewable energy. Areas with the highest potential for renewable energy are often far away from current load centres, which can be integrated through long-distance transmission interconnection. The concept builds on the proven benefits of transmission interconnection in mitigating the variability of renewable electricity sources such as wind and solar by import and export of electricity between neighbouring regions, as well as on other known benefits of power system integration. This paper reviews existing global and regional initiatives in context of a sustainable future and presents the associated benefits and challenges of globally interconnected power grids and intercontinental interconnectors. We find that while the challenges and opportunities are clearly qualified, actual quantification of costs, benefits and environmental implications of the global grid concept remains in its infancy, imposing a significant gap in the literature.
... Whereas, the range of FLH derived for 2015 and 2030 are presented in the supplementary material of the article Ram et al. (2018) and a brief description of the methodology used for estimating this is also provided in Ram et al. (2018) as well as Ram et al., (2017). The FLH for onshore wind are estimated as presented in Bogdanov and Breyer (2016), wherein the assumed wind power plants consist of 3 MW wind turbines at 150 m hub height (Enercon, 2018). The dataset is used in a 0.45° × 0.45° spatial and hourly temporal resolution for real weather conditions of the year 2005. ...
Article
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Jani-Petri Martikainen has raised a few concerns after examining in detail the peer-reviewed published article Ram et al. (2018) and the technical report Ram et al. (2017) in his letter Martikainen (2019). However, Martikainen (2019) fails to contextualise the approach in estimating the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) across different power generation sources adopted in Ram et al. (2017) and Ram et al. (2018). Martikainen (2019) seems to raise issues that have already been clarified and further explained in the original published article as well as in the technical report. In an effort to ensure that the readers are not confused or misled by some of the claims made in Martikainen (2019), the authors of Ram et al. (2017) and Ram et al. (2018) have responded to all the concerns raised.
... Renewable technologies are considered as clean sources of energy and its optimal use minimize environmental impacts and can encourage a green revolution in the energy context of XXI century. Policies and management practices of renewable energy systems provide an excellent opportunity for reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and global warming, but also economic opportunities are very interesting [1][2][3][4][5]. Biomethane refers to methane produced from biomass feedstock, particularly agricultural residues, energy crops, organicrich waste waters, organic fraction of municipal solid waste (ofmsw) and industrial organic waste [6][7][8]. ...
Article
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Biomethane is a renewable gas produced by the transformation of organic matter. It can lead to emissions reduction and it contributes to increasing methane production. Incentive policies favour its development and for this reason, the objective of this paper is to investigate the economic performance of biomethane plants and their process monitoring by electronic systems. Mathematical modeling is here presented to study the financial feasibility of biomethane plants in function of the size (100 m3/h, 250 m3/h, 500 m3/h, 1000 m3/h), the feedstock used (organic fraction of municipal solid waste and a mixture of 30% maize and 70% manure residues on a weight basic) and the destination for final use (fed into the grid, destined for cogeneration or sold as vehicle fuel). From an economic point of view the plant performance is studied by economic tools as Net Present Value and Discounted Payback Time and the uncertainty analysis is implemented using Monte Carlo method. Moreover, from a technical point of view, process monitoring is analyzed to understand what happens in a biomethane plant and help to maintain a stable process. The results show that the profitability of biomethane plants is verified in several scenarios presenting losses only if subsidies were removed.
... Thus, in order to reduce greenhouse gases emissions and environmental pollution in the line of energy sustainability, various solutions are recommended, that one of them is utilization renewable energy [23]. Nowadays, the use of renewable energies has become binding law in many countries around the world, and governments are proposing to replace renewable energy with fossil fuels [1,3,[10][11][12]. Renewable energies are increasingly seen as demanding affordable access to electricity while reducing the need for fossil fuels [17]. ...
Article
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The aim of this study is an economic and technical analysis of a hybrid system in the Semirom city of Iran that is performed by a technical-economic analysis on combined utilization of solar-wind and diesel system. In this study HOMER software is utilized for economic assessment and optimization. At first, the related meteorological data gathered and then using Homer software the calculation was carried out. This city has good potential for solar and wind energy. The solar radiation ranges of Semirom city is from 2.88 to 7.78 kWh/m2/d, and the wind speed ranges are from 2.9 to 5.3 m/s. Solar and wind analyses on Semirom show that this city have great potential in solar and wind energy generation because this city has a proper position to receive sun solar and has high potential in wind speed for wind power generation. Regarding this study and due to high potential in solar and wind energy in Semirom, investments on renewable energy sector of this city will be economically justified.
... For dispatch and reliability purposes some models require a very tight time scale (Blakers et al., 2017;Bogdanov and Breyer, 2016;Elliston et al., 2014;Esteban and Portugal-Pereira, 2014;Gulagi et al., 2017a;Lund and Mathiesen, 2009;Palzer and Henning, 2014;Sadiqa et al., 2018;Heard et al., 2017). However, as the focus of the paper is medium-to long-term, the model here has a monthly resolution. ...
Article
Across the world, the electricity industry is changing with the advent of renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power. As these are exposed to intermittency, seasonality, and global-climate-variation, policy-makers' concerns are now shifting towards security of supply. In fact, the industry confronts three conflicting goals: security of supply, competitive prices to customers, and environmental protection. In this context, and given the multiple uncertainties of technology transformation, this paper uses modelling-based scenario analysis to investigate different extreme and plausible futures. Simulation is used to analyse policies aimed at increasing the penetration of renewables and to explore how these energy sources may affect system reliability. This paper explores the effect of incorporating renewables in Colombia, where a large hydroelectric component has led to insufficient electricity being available during droughts and to high electricity price volatility. Though not intuitive at first glance, this paper shows that renewables may contribute to: i) increased security of supply through complementarity, e.g., it does not rain when the sun shines; ii) reduced price volatility in the medium-term, and iii) increased industry sustainability.
... Davarpanah). taken into consideration (Khojasteh et al., 2017;Bogdanov and Breyer, 2016). ...
Article
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Energy accessibility especially electrical energy is considered as one of the most appealing factors to achieve energy sustainability. The purpose of this study is to investigate energy sustainability using renewable energies for two high potential cities in the southeast of Iran until the year 2030. In this regard, Homer software is used to evaluate economic and technical analyses of PV-wind-diesel hybrid system for the two cities by the data gathering which was collected from Iran's meteorological organization. Therefore, the average of solar radiation per month for Zabol and Zahak were about 9 and 9.1 (h/d). Also, mean wind speeds are calculated 5.35 m/s and 4.7 m/s for Zabol and Zahak respectively which proposed that these cities have high potential in order to electrical production by a hybrid system. Furthermore, the amount of electricity production by PV array for Zabol and Zahak were 1700 (kWh/yr) and 1669 (kWh/yr) respectively, and the amount of electricity production by wind turbine were 9036 (kWh/yr) and 7263(kWh/yr) for Zabol and Zahak respectively. Consequently, it is of elaborated that the investments on solar and wind energy sectors for both cities would be economically justified.
... The approach, suggested by Heidi et al. [11,12], has been employed for the modeling of wind energy by other studies [13,14]. Bogdanov et al. [15] used data for 2005 with 0.45° x 0.45° spatial resolution for their investigations of the electricity, gas and heat supply options across northeastern Asia. The same dataset and year is included in the study of Gulagi et al. [16] for India and the region of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), claiming that installed capacities of renewables would not be drastically affected by the choice of weather year. ...
Preprint
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Renewable energy sources (RES) will play a crucial role in future sustainable energy systems. In scenarios analyzing future energy system designs, a detailed spatial and temporal representation of renewable-based electricity generation is essential. For this, sufficiently representative weather data are required. Most analyses performed in this context use the historical data of either one specific reference year or an aggregation of multiple years. In contrast, this study analyzes the impact of different weather years based on historical weather data from 1980 through 2015 in accordance with the design of an exemplary future energy system. This exemplary energy system consists of on- and offshore wind energy for power-to-hydrogen via electrolysis, including hydrogen pipeline transport for most southwestern European countries. The assumed hydrogen demand for transportation needs represents a hypothetical future market penetration for fuel cell-electric vehicles of 75%. An optimization framework is used in order to evaluate the resulting system design with the objective function of minimizing the total annual cost (TAC) of the system. For each historical weather year, the applied optimization model determines the required capacities and operation of wind power plants, electrolyzers, storage technologies and hydrogen pipelines to meet the assumed future hydrogen demand in a highly spatially- and temporally-detailed manner, as well as the TAC of the system. Following that, the results of every individual year are compared in terms of installed capacities, overall electricity generation and connection to the transmission network, as well as the cost of these components within each region. The results reveal how sensitive the final design of the exemplary system is to the choice of the weather year. For example, the TAC of the system changes by up to 20% across two consecutive weather years. Furthermore, significant variation in the optimization results regarding installed capacities per region with respect to the choice of weather years can be observed.
... In this regard, one of the best ways to control it, move toward sustainability with more use of renewable energy . Today, the use of renewable energy which is a good alternative to fossil fuels has been accepted in many countries of the world (Bogdanov and Breyer 2016). Also use of more renewable energy instead of fossil fuels will be of great help to the environment (Davarpanah 2018;Novan 2015). ...
Article
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Electrical production for residential areas is one of the most important goals of SDGs (17 UN goal) and UN-Habitat III (14 goals) that can be achieved by renewable energy. Now, renewable energy is a significant issue that must be considered seriously as a policy and in order to achieve energy sustainability on a global scale especially in whole developing countries. Also, since the role of renewable energy in sustainable development is remarkable, thus this article presents a comprehensive discussion of energy sustainability for urban areas with related energy indicators and technical analysis of a Hybrid Power System to show the importance of renewable energy to gain energy sustainability. This paper presents the feasibility of using PV-DG hybrid systems as the reliable energy by an economic and technical analysis in one of the southern cities of Iran use of HOMER software. Regarding the high average of solar radiation that is about 5.4 kWh/m2/d in Chabahar city, technical analysis of this system demonstrates that this city has a high capacity to producing the electrical energy via PV-diesel hybrid system with total electrical production amount of 10,575 kWh/yr from PV (8,447 kWh/yr) and Diesel system (2,128 kWh/yr). For do this work at the first, the required data is gathered from the meteorological organization of Iran and then technical and economic analysis is conducted with the Homer software. This study regarding the high potential of solar energy of Chabahar city shows that to achieve development especially in the energy sustainability field needs to implementing proper actions such as enough investment on clean energy and using renewable energy for electrical production.
... Minimize costs: Modelling non-linear functions Four cost functions are involved and relate to the installation and size of a PV plant as defined in Fig. 3. Typically, capital and operational costs are approximated as linear functions [9,24,19]. However, this approach is unrealistic as both the Cap i and Cop i costs are in fact non-linear, since they depend on the size of the plant (linked to the related number of PV panels) [31]. ...
Chapter
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Solar-based energy is an intermittent power resource whose potential pattern varies in space and time. Planning the penetration of such resource into a regional power network is a strategic problem that requires both to locate and bound candidate parcels subject to multiple geographical restrictions and to determine the subset of these and their size so that the solar energy production is maximized and the associated costs minimized. The problem is also permeated with uncertainty present in the estimated forecast energy demand, resource potential and technical costs. This paper presents a novel combination of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Robust Optimization (RO) to develop strategic planning scenarios of a collection of parcels that accounts for their spatio-temporal characteristics, and specifically their hourly radiation patterns that are location dependent, to best fit the network temporal demand and minimize technical costs.
... Several other recent studies have also assessed the feasibility of 100% RE systems by the 2030 to 2050 time horizon. Interconnected grid studies in the European Union [22,23], Eurasia [24], Denmark [25], the Americas [26], Brazil [27,28], Northeast Asia [29], Southeast Asia and the Pacific Rim [30] have found that 100% RE systems are technically feasible if electricity grids are interconnected and if a portfolio of dispatchable RE and storage options are deployed. Most of these studies argue that producing all electricity from RE would be less costly than relying on nuclear energy and fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage alternatives. ...
Article
Global greenhouse gas emissions from energy production were approximately 40% higher in 2017 than in 2000 (International Energy Agency, 2018), and ambient particulate matter – one of the byproducts from fossil fuel combustion of most concern for public health – is now the fifth largest contributor to global disease (Cohen et al., 2017). Achieving the climate targets of the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals requires better accounting for climate and health costs in energy planning. This paper quantifies trade-offs between selected energy infrastructure, climate, and health costs when meeting future electricity demand by increasing the share of renewable energy, with a focus on variable renewable energy (VRE; here: wind and solar photovoltaic power). Using a spatially and temporally resolved approach, we analyzed three scenarios for year 2030 for Northeast Brazil, characterized by 30%, 45%, and 70% of VRE (the latter corresponds to 100% renewable energy). We find that accounting for the health impacts from electricity generation is sufficient to economically justify deep decarbonization of Northeast Brazil's power sector. Full decarbonization is economically justified when the carbon price exceeds $20/tonne CO2, which is less than Brazil's country-level social cost of carbon and only 4.8% of the global social cost of carbon. Our study shows that regional climate and health costs from electricity generation alone can be greater than the additional infrastructure costs of decarbonization. Our results highlight how systematically accounting for health and climate costs in energy planning would economically justify the decarbonization of energy systems.
... Impacts negative of renewable energy technologies (Bilgili et al., 2016;Jenniches, 2018;Ribeiro et al., 2018;Ali and Kumar, 2017;Bogdanov and Breyer, 2016;Brandoni et al., 2014). as broaden the benefits for education and health. ...
... The prospect of carbon-neutral systems raises public concern about three factors in particular: transmission expansion [29], nuclear power as a major source of CO 2 -neutral electricity [13], and large-scale wind and solar farms [30]. Transmission expansion has been shown to be an important factor in keeping costs down in electricity systems dominated by VRE [4,[6][7][8][9][10][11]. However, massive transmission expansions may not be politically feasible or publicly acceptable [8]. ...
Preprint
Most studies of near-zero-carbon power systems consider Europe and the United States. In this paper, we focus on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), where weather conditions, especially for solar, differ substantially from those in Europe. We use a green-field linear capacity expansion model with over-night investment to assess the effect on system cost of (i) limiting/expanding the amount of land available for wind and solar farms, (ii) allowing for nuclear power and (iii) disallowing for international transmission. This is done under three different cost regimes for solar PV and battery storage. We find that: - The amount of available land for wind and solar farms can have a great impact on the system cost. We found a cost increase of 0-50% as a result of reduced available land. In MENA, the impact on system cost is greatly influenced by the PV and battery cost regime, which is not the case in Europe. - Allowing for nuclear has nearly no effect in MENA, while it can decrease system costs in Europe by up to 23%. In Europe, the effect on system cost of whether nuclear power is allowed is highly dependent on the PV and battery cost regime, which is not the case in MENA. - Disallowing for international transmission increases costs by up to around 25% in both Europe and MENA. The cost increase depends on cost regime for PV and batteries. The impact on system cost off these three controversial parts of a decarbonized power system thus plays out differently, depending on (i) the region and (ii) uncertain future costs for solar PV and storage. We conclude that a renewable power system in MENA, is less costly than in Europe irrespective of the cost regime. In MENA, the system costs vary between 37 and 83 euro/MWh. In Europe, the system costs vary between 43 and 89 euro/MWh.
... E. Pursiheimo et al. [22] applied TIMES tool [113] to the Nordic countries using a multi-node model implementing sector-coupling with a single-objective optimization. Different contributions applied LUT model [114] to different case studies, M. Child et al. [23], D. Bogdanov et al. [24], U. Caldera [25], A. Kilickaplan [26]. All these studies implement a hourly, multi-node operational optimization but lack of a multi-objective approach in the expansion capacity optimization. ...
Article
Energy system modelling supports decision-makers in the development of short and long-term energy strategies. In the field of bottom-up short-term energy system models, high resolution in time and space, the implementation of sector coupling and the adoption of a multi-objective investment optimization have never been achieved simultaneously because of the high computational effort. Within this paper, such a bottom-up short-term model which simultaneously implements (i) hourly temporal resolution, (ii) multi-node approach thus high spatial resolution, (iii) integrates the electric, thermal and transport sectors and (iv) implements a multi-objective investment optimization method is proposed. The developed method is applied to the Italian energy system at 2050 to test and show its main features. The model allows the evaluation of the hourly curtailments for each node. The optimization highlights that the cheapest solutions work towards high curtailments and low investments in flexibility options. In order to further reduce the CO2 emissions the investments in flexibility options like electric storage batteries and reinforcement and enlargement of the transmission grid become relevant.
... In apparent contradiction to the above-mentioned market integration studies, the last few years have also seen an increasing number of cost-minimizing energy system studies with high shares (>80%) of variable renewables [17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26]. The system solutions of these studies correspond to long-term equilibria where all generators, including VRE technologies, exactly cover their costs with their market revenue (the 'zero-profit rule' [27]). ...
Preprint
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Although recent studies have shown that electricity systems with shares of wind and solar above 80% can be affordable, economists have raised concerns about market integration. Correlated generation from variable renewable sources depresses market prices, which can cause wind and solar to cannibalize their own revenues and prevent them from covering their costs from the market. This cannibalization appears to set limits on the integration of wind and solar, and thus contradict studies that show that high shares are cost effective. Here we show from theory and with numerical examples how policies interact with prices, revenue and costs for renewable electricity systems. The decline in average revenue seen in some recent literature is due to an implicit policy assumption that technologies are forced into the system, whether it be with subsidies or quotas. If instead the driving policy is a carbon dioxide cap or tax, wind and solar shares can rise without cannibalising their own market revenue, even at penetrations of wind and solar above 80%. Policy is thus the primary factor driving lower market values; the variability of wind and solar is only a secondary factor that accelerates the decline if they are subsidised. The strong dependence of market value on the policy regime means that market value needs to be used with caution as a measure of market integration.
... Within the data preparation, the resource potentials of various RE technologies throughout the country were estimated. Real weather data was used for assessing the solar, wind and hydro resources [26,27,28]. The potentials for biomass and waste resources were classified into biogas/solid residues and solid wastes, based on Bunzel et. ...
Article
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Renewable energies will play a significant role in transitioning towards sustainable energy system in order to match the goal under the Paris Agreement. However, to achieve this goal, it will be necessary to find the best country pathway, with global repercussions. This study reveals that an energy system based on 100% renewable resources in Chile would be technically feasible and even more cost-efficient than the current system. The Chilean energy system transition would imply a high level of direct and indirect electrification across all sectors. Simulation results using the LUT Energy System Transition model comprising 108 technology components show that the primary electricity demand would rise from 31 TWh to 231 TWh by 2050, which represents about 78% of the total primary energy demand. The remaining 22% would be composed of renewable heat and bioenergy fuels. Renewable electricity will mainly come from solar PV and wind energy technologies. Solar PV and wind energy installed capacities across all sectors would increase from 1.1 GW and 0.8 GW in 2015 to 43.6 GW and 24.8 GW by 2050, respectively. In consequence, the levelized cost of energy will reduce by about 25%. Moreover, the Chilean energy system in 2050 would emit zero greenhouse gases. Additionally, Chile would become a country free of energy imports.
... Minimize costs: Modelling non-linear functions. This problem takes into account four cost functions that relate to each PV plant as defined in Fig. 3. Capital and operational costs are generally approximated as linear functions such as in [54] or in [55]. However, this approach is unrealistic as both the Cap i and Cop i costs are non-linear and depend on the size of the number thus the number of PV panels [56]. ...
Article
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Today, the overall goal of energy transition planning is to seek an optimal strategy for increasing the share of renewable sources in existing power networks, such that the growing power demand is satisfied at manageable short/long term investment. In this paper we address the problem of PV penetration in electricity networks, by considering both 1) the spatial issue of site selection and size, and 2) the temporal aspect of hourly load and demand satisfaction, in addition with the investment and maintenance costs to guarantee a viable and reliable solution. We propose to address this spatio-temporal optimization problem through an integrated GIS and robust optimization model, that allows handling of the ubiquitous dependencies between resource and demand time variability and the selection of optimal sites of renewable power generation. Our approach contributes to the integration of the multi-dimensional and combinatorial aspects of this problem, gathering geographical layers (regional or national scale) and temporal packing (hourly time stamp) constraints, and cost functions. This model computes the optimal geographical location and size of PV facilities allowing energy planning targets to be met at minimal cost in a reliable manner. In this paper, we illustrate our approach by studying the penetration of large-scale solar PV in the French Guiana's power system. Among the results, we show for instance that: 1) our approach performs geographical aggregation with real contextual data, i.e. balances the intermittency of RE sources by spreading out the corresponding installations (location + size) across the territory; 2) the total installed PV capacity can be doubled by removing the 35% penetration limit on intermittent power without exceeding hourly demand; 3) the safest investment scenario is below 30MW of new PV facilities (~ 45M€ and 2 plants), though it is theoretically possible to install up to 45MW (>120M€ and 11 plants).
... Such studies have considered the possibility and feasibility of 100%-renewable energy systems, for example in Lund and Mathiesen [11] for Denmark. Similar studies were undertaken by Cosic et al. [12] for Macedonia, Mason et al. [13] for New Zealand, Bogdanov and Breyer [14] for North-East Asia, and Connolly et al. [15] for Ireland. Jacobson and Delucchi [16] analyzed the feasibility of providing 100% of global energy demand through wind, water and solar (WWS) energy, specifically to cover new demand until 2030, and from then until 2050 replacing the existing conventional energy system by renewable resources. ...
Article
Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) plants can make a significant contribution to renewable energy supply in many regions of the world. Several bottom-up engineering performance models for CSP plants have been developed. However, they require the capacity of the plant to be known. In whole-of-grid optimization models, the capacity of the plants is an optimization variable and therefore not known in advance. In this case, researchers have taken a simplified modelling approach that overestimated CSP performance, especially for low-DNI conditions. In this paper, we offer a novel density-based engineering modelling approach in which CSP performance is determined independently of the capacity of the power plant, and which can be used in whole-of-grid optimization models. We investigate a case study of the site of the new Aurora CSP project in Port Augusta, South Australia, to be one of the world's largest solar thermal power plants by 2020. Using a Geographical Information System (GIS)-grid representation of Australia, we compare CSP performance resulting from a simplified model with our new approach.
... Historically, the Chinese power grid has been run as seven independent regional grids, with each covering several geographically contiguous provinces as shown in Fig. 2a. The grid companies were responsible for the power balance in their own region, supplied by coal primarily, and inter-regional power transfer was scarce [52]. In the model, the grids are represented as follows. ...
... Many studies (e.g. [7][8][9][10], see also the studies evaluated in [11]), especially on country scale, actually perform an optimization of the complete generation portfolio with regard to cost, taking into account specific assumptions concerning boundary conditions. Since a macroeconomic optimum seems a reasonable goal for an energy system this work focuses on improvements for studies, in which optimizations are performed in order to come closer to this goal. ...
Conference Paper
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Decisions in energy policy are influenced by the results from energy systems optimizations. Uncertainties regarding the input parameters of optimization problems, e.g. cost developments of technologies and resources in the future, may influence the optimization results in such a way, that an easy interpretation of results is not possible. The methodology presented herein aims to overcome the problem of uncertainties and to allow taking into account probability distributions (pd) for all input parameters while limiting the number of necessary optimizations to a minimum. This is achieved using design of experiment (DoE) to select the appropriate input parameter combinations to train an artificial neural network (ANN). The resulting ANN is then used to predict the optimization result for all possible input parameter combinations, which are then weighted with a pd according to user preferences. In this contribution, an explanation of the new methodology OPANN (optimization considering probabilities with artificial neural networks) and its application are presented. The information gained from a number of random or selected (e.g. scenario based) simulations is compared with the results following the DoE approach and the application of ANN and pds. The number of necessary simulations with the new methodology is then evaluated with regard to the applicability of the Monte Carlo method and stochastic optimization and the cost-benefit ratio for the considered methods at different numbers of runs of the original optimization problem is compared.
Article
This study applies a scenario-based analysis to assess the sustainability of energy transitions of the North African economies under the Paris Agreement, by evaluating the specific pace of the transition grounded in the reality of the actual regional constraints. The ‘Long-range Energy Alternative Planning’ modelling platform is used to simulate the impact of energy and climate policies set in the context of the global low-carbon transition on North Africa’s current energy system and economies. Two scenarios are developed: the reference and the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution scenarios. A cost–benefit analysis is performed to ensure this transition can be cost-effective and to suggest recommendations for an efficient and effective transition to a low carbon economy. Results show that decarbonization in North Africa can be achieved at the regional scale, at negative costs, but significant upfront capital investments and intensive energy policy reforms are needed. Key policy insights • In order for North African countries to meet their Paris Agreement commitments, further steps need to be taken by the international community to accelerate low-carbon technology transfer and the provision of financial resources to them. • Policies for energy efficiency and renewable energy development should include the establishment of a regional market to develop and harmonize policies and legal frameworks in North Africa. • Regional energy market integration and network interconnections would allow economies of scale, cost savings and the development of regional expertise. • Policies for energy efficiency should also include reforms to phase out or reduce fossil fuel subsidies, mandatory energy audits for the buildings sector, and minimum energy performance standards for appliances, such as air conditioners and refrigerators.
Article
This research reviews the technical requirements of grid-connected photovoltaic power plants to increase their competitiveness and efficiently integrate into the grid to satisfy future demand requirements and grid management challenges, focusing on Spain as a case study. The integration of distributed resources into the electric network, in particular photovoltaic energy, requires an accurate control of the system. The integration of photovoltaic energy has resulted in significant changes to the regulatory framework to ensure proper integration of distributed generation units in the grid. In this study, the requirements of the system operator for the management and smart control are first analysed and then the technical specifications established by the network operator in reference to the components of the facility are evaluated. This analysis identifies the shortcomings of the current legislation and concludes with a summary of the main technical recommendations and future regulatory challenges that need to be undertaken in the future. It is presented as a reference case that can be adapted worldwide.
Article
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The construction of economically justified solar power plants requires taking into account the different levels of factors: from the balance between the generation and consumption / accumulation capacities, operation of controllers and local climatic conditions, to regional power grid conditions and operating conditions, and further to the global characteristics such as the discount rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and the tariffs of solar panel manufacturers. Most researcher cannot take into account all the various factor involved in their practical work. Therefore, mathematical modeling is the only possible option for many of them. In recent years there has been a sharp surge in research papers on the simulation of alternative energy installations. Since the beginning of 2019 more than 17,000 scientific papers have been published. This article deals with the conducted bibliometric analysis of software products for alternative energy systems modeling. The HOMER, RETScreen, PVSyst and TRNSYS programs were found the most in-demand, with the first two being the most common in the scientific and educational environment, and the other two – in engineering. A particularly rapid growth is observed in the number of studies associated with the “virtual” installations modeling with the aim of having more publications. This may be partly justified under the paradigm of scientific and educational problems. Построение экономически обоснованных солнечных энергоустановок требует учёта разноуровневых факторов: от одномоментного баланса между мощностями генерации и потребления/накопления, работы контроллеров, локальных климатических условий, до региональных условий энергосетей и условий эксплуатации, и далее до таких глобальных характеристик как учётная ставка Центробанка и тарифы производителей солнечных панелей. Практический учёт этих столь разнородных факторов недоступен большинству исследователей, поэтому для многих единственно возможным выходом становится математическое моделирование. В последние годы наблюдается резкий всплеск научных работ по моделированию установок альтернативной энергетики. Только с начала 2019 года было опубликовано свыше 17000 научных работ. В представленной статье проведён библиометрический анализ программных продуктов моделирования систем альтернативной электроэнергетики. Обнаружено, что наиболее востребованы программы HOMER, RETScreen, PVSyst и TRNSYS, причём первые две наиболее распространены в научно-образовательной среде, а вторые – в инженерно-технической. Также наблюдается особенно быстрый рост работ по моделированию «виртуальных» установок с целью публикации статей, частично оправданный в парадигме научно-образовательных задач.
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Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries. The roadmaps call for a 100% transition of all-purpose business-as-usual (BAU) energy to wind-water-solar (WWS) energy, efficiency, and storage by 2050 with at least 80% by 2030. Our studies on grid stability find that the countries, grouped into 24 regions, can match demand exactly from 2050 to 2052 with 100% WWS supply and storage. We also derive new cost metrics. Worldwide, WWS energy reduces end-use energy by 57.1%, aggregate private energy costs from $17.7 to $6.8 trillion/year (61%), and aggregate social (private plus health plus climate) costs from $76.1 to $6.8 trillion/year (91%) at a present value capital cost of ∼$73 trillion. WWS energy creates 28.6 million more long-term, full-time jobs than BAU energy and needs only ∼0.17% and ∼0.48% of land for new footprint and spacing, respectively. Thus, WWS requires less energy, costs less, and creates more jobs than does BAU.
Article
The discussion about the benefits of a global energy interconnection is gaining momentum in recent years. The techno-economic benefits of this integration are broadly discussed for the major regions around the world. While there has not been substantial research on the techno-economic benefits, however, some initial results of the global energy interconnection are presented in this paper. Benefits achieved on the global scale are lower than the interconnections within the national and sub-national level. The world is divided into 9 major regions and the major regions comprise of 23 regions. When all the considered regions are interconnected globally, the overall estimated levelized cost of electricity is 52.5 €/MWh for year 2030 assumptions, which is 4% lower than an isolated global energy system. Further, the required installed capacities decrease by 4% for the fully interconnected system. Nevertheless, a more holistic view on the entire energy system will progress research on global energy interconnection as, synthetic power-to-X fuels and chemicals emerge as an important feature of the future sustainable global energy system with strong interactions of the power system not only to the supply, in energy fuel and chemicals trading globally, but also to the demand side. Global energy interconnection will be part of the solution to achieve the targets of the Paris Agreement and more research will help to better understand its impact and additional value.
Chapter
It is considered that the Socialist Republic of Vietnam (Vietnam) has an ideal environment for introducing and spreading Smart Grids. Although power demands in Vietnam are increasing rapidly and continuously, the infrastructure for smart grids is still underdeveloped so that the demands have not been satisfied yet, and the same can be said for the other South-Eastern countries. Most of their thermoelectric power plants are generating power by using diesel generators and the hydroelectric power generation is another means of securing power. It seems that the governments in this region prefer a small-scale power system linked to new and renewable energies rather than supporting some large-scale power generation projects due to their regional characteristics being consisted of a number of islands where power infrastructures are inadequate. The demands for an independent power system are being demanded in the countries with many islands such as Indonesia, Malaysia or Thailand such that it is essential to find new export-oriented businesses in these areas and push ahead with the construction of test beds for smart grids. In this regard, this study considers the possibility of introducing a Korean model smart grid in Vietnam while considering their situation and trend of new and renewable energies.
Article
Flexible Alternating Current Transmission Systems (FACTS) have achieved to enhance the flexibility of modern AC power systems, by providing fast, reliable and controllable solutions to steer the power flows and voltages in the network. The proliferation of High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) transmission systems is leading to the opportunity of interconnecting several HVDC systems forming HVDC Supergrids. Such grids can eventually evolve to meshed systems which interconnect a number of different AC power systems and large scale offshore wind (or other renewable sources) power plants and clusters. While such heavily meshed systems can be considered futuristic and will not certainly happen in the near future, the sector is witnessing initial steps in this direction. In order to ensure the flexibility and controllability of meshed DC grids, the shunt connected AC-DC converters can be combined with additional simple and flexible DC-DC converters which can directly control current and power through the lines. The proposed DC-DC converters can provide a range of services to the HVDC grid, including power flow control capability, ancillary services for the HVDC grid or adjacent grids, stability improvement, oscillation damping, pole balancing and voltage control. The present paper presents relevant developments from industry and academia in the direction of the development of these converters, considering technical concepts, converter functionalities and possible integration with other existing systems. The paper explores a possible vision on the development of future meshed HVDC grids and discusses the role of the proposed converters in such grids.
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Pathways towards a defossilated sustainable power system for West Africa within the time horizon of 2015–2050 is researched, by applying linear optimisation modelling to determine the cost optimal generation mix to meet the demand based on assumed costs and technologies in 5-year intervals. Six scenarios were developed, which aimed at examining the impact of various policy constraints such as cross-border electricity trade and greenhouse gas emissions costs. Solar PV emerges as the prime source of West Africa's future power system, supplying about 81–85% of the demand in the Best Policy Scenarios for 2050. The resulting optimisation suggests that the costs of electricity could fall from 70 €/MWh in 2015 to 36 €/MWh in 2050 with interconnection, and to 41 €/MWh without interconnection in the Best Policy Scenarios by 2050. Whereas, the levelised cost of electricity without greenhouse emission costs in the Current Policy Scenario is 70 €/MWh. Results of the optimisation indicate that a fully renewables based power system is the least-cost, least-GHG emitting and most job-rich option for West Africa. This study is the first of its kind study for the West African power sector from a long-term perspective.
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The reliable supplies of electricity and hydrogen required for 100% renewable energy systems have been found to be achievable by utilisation of a mix of different resources and storage technologies. In this paper, more demanding parameter conditions than hitherto considered are used in measurement of the reliability of variable renewable energy resources. The defined conditions require that supply of baseload electricity (BLEL) and baseload hydrogen (BLH2) occurs solely using cost-optimised configurations of variable photovoltaic solar power, onshore wind energy and balancing technologies. The global scenario modelling is based on hourly weather data in a 0.45° × 0.45° spatial resolution. Simulations are conducted for Onsite and Coastal Scenarios from 2020 to 2050 in 10-year time-steps. The results show that for 7% weighted average cost of capital, Onsite BLEL can be generated at less than 119, 54, 41 and 33 €/MWhel in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050, respectively, across the best sites with a maximum 20,000 TWh annual cumulative generation potential. Up to 20,000 TWhH2,HHVOnsite BLH2 can be produced at less than 66, 48, 40 and 35 €/MWhH2,HHV, in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050, respectively. A partially flexible electricity demand at 8000 FLh, could significantly reduce the costs of electricity supply in the studied scenario. Along with battery storage, power-to-hydrogen-to-power is found to have a major role in supply of BLEL beyond 2030 as both a daily and seasonal balancing solution. Batteries are not expected to have a significant role in the provision of electricity to water electrolysers.
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Research attention on decentralized autonomous energy systems has increased exponentially in the past three decades, as demonstrated by the absolute number of publications and the share of these studies in the corpus of energy system modelling literature. This paper shows the status quo and future modelling needs for research on local autonomous energy systems. A total of 359 studies are roughly investigated, of which a subset of 123 in detail. The studies are assessed with respect to the characteristics of their methodology and applications, in order to derive common trends and insights. Most case studies apply to middle-income countries and only focus on the supply of electricity in the residential sector. Furthermore, many of the studies are comparable regarding objectives and applied methods. Local energy autonomy is associated with high costs, leading to levelized costs of electricity of 0.41 $/kWh on average. By analysing the studies, many improvements for future studies could be identified: the studies lack an analysis of the impact of autonomous energy systems on surrounding energy systems. In addition, the robust design of autonomous energy systems requires higher time resolutions and extreme conditions. Future research should also develop methodologies to consider local stakeholders and their preferences for energy systems.
Article
Full-text available
Research attention on decentralized autonomous energy systems has increased exponentially in the past three decades, as demonstrated by the absolute number of publications and the share of these studies in the corpus of energy system modelling literature. This paper shows the status quo and future modelling needs for research on local autonomous energy systems. A total of 359 studies are investigated, of which a subset of 123 in detail. The studies are assessed with respect to the characteristics of their methodology and applications, in order to derive common trends and insights. Most case studies apply to middle-income countries and only focus on the supply of electricity in the residential sector. Furthermore, many of the studies are comparable regarding objectives and applied methods. Local energy autonomy is associated with high costs, leading to levelized costs of electricity of 0.41 $/kWh on average. By analysing the studies, many improvements for future studies could be identified: the studies lack an analysis of the impact of autonomous energy systems on surrounding energy systems. In addition, the robust design of autonomous energy systems requires higher time resolutions and extreme conditions. Future research should also develop methodologies to consider local stakeholders and their preferences for energy systems.
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Thesis
As electricity generation based on volatile renewable resources is subject to fluctuations, data with high temporal and spatial resolution on their availability is indispensable for integrating large shares of renewable capacities into energy infrastructures. The scope of the present doctoral thesis is to enhance the existing energy modelling environment REMix in terms of (i.) extending the geographic coverage of the potential assessment tool REMix-EnDaT from a European to a global scale, (ii.) adding a new plant siting optimization module REMix-PlaSMo, capable of assessing siting effects of renewable power plants on the portfolio output and (iii.) adding a new alternating current power transmission model between 30 European countries and CSP electricity imports from power plants located in North Africa and the Middle East via high voltage direct current links into the module REMix-OptiMo. With respect to the global potential assessment tool, a thorough investigation is carried out creating an hourly global inventory of the theoretical potentials of the major renewable resources solar irradiance, wind speed and river discharge at a spatial resolution of 0.45°x0.45°. A detailed global land use analysis determines eligible sites for the installation of renewable power plants. Detailed power plant models for PV, CSP, wind and hydro power allow for the assessment of power output, cost per kWh and respective full load hours taking into account the theoretical potentials, technological as well as economic data. The so-obtined tool REMix-EnDaT can be used as follows: First, as an assessment tool for arbitrary geographic locations, countries or world regions, deriving either site-specific or aggregated installable capacities, cost as well as full load hour potentials. Second, as a tool providing input data such as installable capacities and hourly renewable electricity generation for further assessments using the modules REMix-PlasMo and OptiMo. The plant siting tool REMix-PlaSMo yields results as to where the volatile power technologies photovoltaics and wind are to be located within a country in order to gain distinct effects on their aggregated power output. Three different modes are implemented: (a.) Optimized plant siting in order to obtain the cheapest generation cost, (b.) a minimization of the photovoltaic and wind portfolio output variance and (c.) a minimization of the residual load variance. The third fundamental addition to the REMix model is the amendment of the module REMix-OptiMo with a new power transmission model based on the DC load flow approximation. Moreover, electricity imports originating from concentrating solar power plants located in North Africa and the Middle East are now feasible. All of the new capabilities and extensions of REMix are employed in three case studies: In case study 1, using the module REMix-EnDaT, a global potential assessment is carried out for 10 OECD world regions, deriving installable capacities, cost and full load hours for PV, CSP, wind and hydro power. According to the latter, photovoltaics will represent the cheapest technology in 2050, an average of 1634 full load hours could lead to an electricity generation potential of some 5500 PWh. Although CSP also taps solar irradiance, restrictions in terms of suitable sites for erecting power plants are more severe. For that reason, the maximum potential amounts to some 1500 PWh. However, thermal energy storage can be used, which, according to this assessment, could lead to 5400 hours of full load operation. Onshore wind power could tap a potential of 717 PWh by 2050 with an average of 2200 full load hours while offshore, wind power plants could achieve a total power generation of 224 PWh with an average of 3000 full load hours. The electricity generation potential of hydro power exceeds 3 PWh, 4600 full load hours of operation are reached on average. In case study 2, using the module REMix-PlaSMo, an assessment for Morocco is carried out as to determine limits of volatile power generation in portfolios approaching full supply based on renewable power. The volatile generation technologies are strategically sited at specific locations to take advantage of available resources conditions. It could be shown that the cost optimal share of volatile power generation without considering storage or transmission grid extensions is one third. Moreover, the average power generation cost using a portfolio consisting of PV, CSP, wind and hydro power can be stabilized at about 10 €ct/kWh by the year 2050. In case study 3, using the module REMix-OptiMo, a validation of a TRANS-CSP scenario based upon high shares of renewable power generation is carried out. The optimization is conducted on an hourly basis using a least cost approach, thereby investigating if and how demand is met during each hour of the investigated year. It could be shown, that the assumed load can safely be met in all countries for each hour using the scenario's power plant portfolio. Furthermore, it was proven that dispatchable renewable power generation, in particular CSP imports to Europe, have a system stabilizing effect. Using the suggested concept, the utilization of the transfer capacities between countries would decrease until 2050.
Chapter
Likelihood of a 100% Renewable World Global Network or Local Autonomy? Timeline for a 100% Renewable World
Chapter
Basic Energy Terms Global Energy Situation Energy Sectors Challenges for Fossil Fuels Problems with Nuclear Energy
Article
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This paper outlines how an existing energy system can be transformed into a 100% renewable energy system. The transition is divided into a number of key stages which reflect key radical technological changes on the supply side of the energy system. Ireland is used as a case study,but in reality this reflects many typical energy systems today which use power plants for electricity, individual boilers for heat, and oil for transport. The seven stages analysed are 1) reference, 2) introduction of district heating, 3) installation of small and large-scale heat pumps,4) reducing grid regulation requirements, 5) adding flexible electricity demands and electric vehicles, 6) producing synthetic methanol/DME for transport, and finally 7) using synthetic gas to replace the remaining fossil fuels. For each stage, the technical and economic performance of the energy system is calculated. The results indicate that a 100% renewable energy system can provide the same end-user energy demands as today’s energy system and at the same price. Electricity will be the backbone of the energy system, but the flexibility in today’s electricity sector will be transferred from the supply side of the demand side in the future. Similarly, due to changes in the type of spending required in a 100% renewable energy system, this scenario will result in the creation of 100,000 additional jobs in Ireland compared to an energy system like today’s. These results are significant since they indicate that the transition to a 100% renewable energy system can begin today, without increasing the cost of energy in the short- or long-term, if the costs currently forecasted for 2050 become a reality.
Article
A clear consensus exists in German society that renewable energy resources have to play a dominant role in the future German energy supply system. However, many questions are still under discussion; for instance the relevance of the different technologies such as photovoltaic systems and wind energy converters installed offshore in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea. Concerns also exist about the cost of a future energy system mainly based on renewable energy. In the work presented here we tried to answer some of those questions. Guiding questions for this study were: (1) is it possible to meet the German energy demand with 100% renewable energy, considering the available technical potential of the main renewable energy resources? (2) what is the overall annual cost of such an energy system once it has been implemented? (3) what is the best combination of renewable energy converters, storage units, energy converters and energy-saving measures? In order to answer these questions, we carried out many simulation calculations using REMod-D, a model we developed for this purpose. This model is described in Part I of this publication. To date this model covers only part of the energy system, namely the electricity and heat sectors, which correspond to about 62% of Germany's current energy demand. The main findings of our work indicate that it is possible to meet the total electricity and heat demand (space heating, hot water) of the entire building sector with 100% renewable energy within the given technical limits. This is based on the assumption that the heat demand of the building sector is significantly reduced by at least 60% or more compared to today's demand. Another major result of our analysis shows that - once the transformation of the energy system has been completed - supplying electricity and heat only from renewables is no more expensive than the existing energy supply.
Article
Further development of the North-East Asian energy system is at a crossroads due to severe limitations of the current conventional energy based system. For North-East Asia it is proposed that the excellent solar and wind resources of the Gobi desert could enable the transformation towards a 100% renewable energy system. An hourly resolved model describes an energy system for North-East Asia, subdivided into 14 regions interconnected by high voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission grids. Simulations are made for highly centralized, decentralized and countrywide grids scenarios. The results for total system levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) are 0.065 and 0.081 €/(kW&h) for the centralized and decentralized approaches for 2030 assumptions. The presented results for 100% renewable resources-based energy systems are lower in LCOE by about 30–40% than recent findings in Europe for conventional alternatives. This research clearly indicates that a 100% renewable resources based energy system is THE real policy option.
Article
The electricity consumption in the ASEAN (Association of East Asian Nations) region is one of the fastest growing in the world and will lead to a dramatic increase in greenhouse gas emissions in the next decades. A decarbonization of the region's electricity supply is thus a very important measure when taking action on global climate change. This paper defines cost-optimal pathways towards a sustainable power system in the region by employing linear optimization. The proposed model simultaneously optimizes the required capacities and the hourly operation of generation, transmission, and storage. The obtained results show that all different kinds of renewable sources will have to be utilized, while none of them should have a share of more than one third. The findings give reason for setting up an ASEAN power grid, as it enables the transportation of electricity from the best sites to load centers and leads to a balancing of the fluctuations from wind and solar generation. We suggest fostering a diversified extension of renewables and to elaborate on political and technical solutions that enable the build up an transnational supergrid.
Article
The autonomous polygeneration microgrid topology has been developed in order to cover holistically needs in a remote area such as electrical energy, space heating and cooling, potable water through desalination and hydrogen as fuel for transportation. The existence of an advanced energy management system is essential for the operation of an autonomous polygeneration microgrid. So far, energy management systems based on a centralized management and control have been developed for the autonomous polygeneration microgrid topology based on computational intelligence approaches. A decentralized management and control energy management system can have important benefits, when taking into consideration the autonomous character of these microgrids. This paper presents the design and investigation of a decentralized energy management system for the autonomous polygeneration microgrid topology. The decentralized energy management system gives the possibility to control each unit of the microgrid independently. The most important advantage of using a decentralized architecture is that the managed microgrid has much higher chances of partial operation in cases when malfunctions occur at different parts of it, instead of a complete system breakdown. The designed system was based on a multi-agent system and employed Fuzzy Cognitive Maps for its implementation. It was then compared through a case study with an existing centralized energy management system. The technical performance of the decentralized solution performance is on par with the existing centralized one, presenting improvements in financial and operational terms for the implementation and operation of an autonomous polygeneration microgrid.
Article
In the transition towards a 100% renewable energy system, energy savings are essential. The possibility of energy savings through conservation or efficiency increases can be identified in, for instance, the heating and electricity sectors, in industry, and in transport. Several studies point to various optimal levels of savings in the different sectors of the energy system. However, these studies do not investigate the idea of energy savings being system dependent. This paper argues that such system dependency is critical to understand, as it does not make sense to analyse an energy saving without taking into account the actual benefit of the saving in relation to the energy system. The study therefore identifies a need to understand how saving methods may interact with each other and the system in which they are conducted. By using energy system analysis to do hourly simulation of the current Danish energy system, the combination of reductions in heat and electricity demands is analysed within the Danish district heating sector to show the benefits of coordinating savings in the electricity and district heating sectors.
Conference Paper
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Photovoltaic installations are usually guaranteed to operate for 25 to 30 years, with a warranty of 80% of initial performance remaining after this time. However, in order to determine the profitability of a project, it is important to estimate the performance of the photovoltaic modules over their lifetime, depending on their environment. In this study, a first version of an ageing model for photovoltaic systems is considered, taking into account the influence of the environmental stress factors, which are the temperature, the relative humidity, and the exposure to UV radiation. Another stress factor also needs to be taken into account: the module's voltage potential versus ground (Potential Induced Degradation). The impact of cell cracks on the modules is also included in the model, their impact over the years depending on the temperature, but mainly to thermal cycles, due to the differences in temperature between day and night (thermal dilatation). Accelerated Damp Heat tests, thermal cycling tests, PID tests and UV tests are interpreted and used for calibrating the model, in addition to other degradation studies taken from relevant literature. A simple model is first built for the corrosion, with the temperature and humidity as stress factors, considering only the maximum power degradation. A more advanced model is then built, considering the degradation of the two-diode model parameters. A model has been built for each degradation, that is to say corrosion (temperature and humidity), AR coating and EVA discoloration (UV exposure), PID causes (temperature, humidity and voltage), and cell cracks (Thermal cycling). First simulations have been done, with weather data from the south of France (Mediterranean climate), Miami (hot and humid), and Dubai (hot and dry) showing that the power output after 30 years is still above the warranty limit of 80%.
Article
The State of Hawaii's Clean Energy policies call for 40% of the state's electricity to be supplied by renewable sources by 2030. A recent study focusing on the island of Oahu showed that meeting large amounts of the island's electricity needs with wind and solar introduced significant operational challenges, especially when renewable generation varies from forecasts. This paper focuses on the potential of demand response in balancing supply and demand on an hourly basis. Using the WILMAR model, various levels and prices of demand response were simulated. Results indicate that demand response has the potential to smooth overall power system operation, with production cost savings arising from both improved thermal power plant operations and increased wind production. Demand response program design and cost structure is then discussed drawing from industry experience in direct load control programs.
Conference Paper
Case studies for very large scale PV (VLS-PV) in desert areas, by the IEA PVPS Task8 study, showed that the Gobi desert area of Mongolia is one of the most promising candidate sites for VLS-PV. It is expected that the demonstration phase will be started in the near-term, and it is intended that a concrete sustainable development scheme would be designed and that the capacity of the total PV system, VLS-PV, will reach GW-scale. Further, thinking about a concept of 'Renewable Energy Super Grid' in North-East Asia, the VLS-PV systems should play important roles.
Conference Paper
Grid-parity is a very important milestone for further photovoltaic (PV) diffusion. An updated grid-parity model is presented, which is based on levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) coupled with the experience curve approach. Relevant assumptions for the model are given and its key driving forces are discussed in detail. Results of the analysis are shown for 215 countries/ islands and a total of 645 market segments all over the world. High PV industry growth rates have enabled a fast reduction of LCOE. Depletion of fossil fuel resources and climate change mitigation forces societies to internalize these effects and pave the way for sustainable energy technologies. First grid-parity events have already occurred. The 2010s are characterized by ongoing grid-parity events throughout the most regions in the world, reaching an addressable market of up to 96% of total global electricity market till 2030. In consequence, new political frameworks for maximizing social benefits will be required. In parallel, PV industry tackle its next milestone, fuel-parity. In conclusion, PV is on the pathway to become a highly competitive energy technology.
Conference Paper
PV and wind power are the major renewable power technologies in most regions on earth. Depending on the interaction of solar and wind resources, PV and wind power industry will become competitors or allies. Time resolved geospatial data of global horizontal irradiation and wind speeds are used to simulate the power feed-in of PV and wind power plants assumed to be installed on an equally rated power basis in every region of a 1°x1° mesh of latitude and longitude between 65°N and 65°S. An overlap of PV and wind power full load hours is defined as measure for the complementarity of both technologies and identified as ranging between 5% and 25% of total PV and wind power feed-in. Critical overlap full load hours are introduced as a measure for energy losses that would appear if the grid was dimensioned only for one power plant of PV or wind. In result, they do not exceed 9% of total feed-in but are mainly around 3% - 4%. Thus the two major renewable power technologies must be characterized by complementing each other.
Article
This study demonstrates – based on a dynamical simulation of a global, decentralized 100% renewable electricity supply scenario – that a global climate-neutral electricity supply based on the volatile energy sources photovoltaics (PV), wind energy (onshore) and concentrated solar power (CSP) is feasible at decent cost. A central ingredient of this study is a sophisticated model for the hourly electric load demand in >160 countries. To guarantee matching of load demand in each hour, the volatile primary energy sources are complemented by three electricity storage options: batteries, high-temperature thermal energy storage coupled with steam turbine, and renewable power methane (generated via the Power to Gas process) which is reconverted to electricity in gas turbines. The study determines – on a global grid with 1°x1° resolution – the required power plant and storage capacities as well as the hourly dispatch for a 100% renewable electricity supply under the constraint of minimized total system cost (LCOE). Aggregating the results on a national level results in an levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) range of 80-200 EUR/MWh (on a projected cost basis for the year 2020) in this very decentralized approach. As a global average, 142 EUR/MWh are found. Due to the restricted number of technologies considered here, this represents an upper limit for the electricity cost in a fully renewable electricity supply.
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