Article

North-East Asian Super Grid for 100% renewable energy supply: Optimal mix of energy technologies for electricity, gas and heat supply options

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Abstract

In order to define a cost optimal 100% renewable energy system, an hourly resolved model has been created based on linear optimization of energy system parameters under given constrains. The model is comprised of five scenarios for 100% renewable energy power systems in North-East Asia with different high voltage direct current transmission grid development levels, including industrial gas demand and additional energy security. Renewables can supply enough energy to cover the estimated electricity and gas demands of the area in the year 2030 and deliver more than 2000 TW hth of heat on a cost competitive level of 84 €/MW hel for electricity. Further, this can be accomplished for a synthetic natural gas price at the 2013 Japanese liquefied natural gas import price level and at no additional generation costs for the available heat. The total area system cost could reach 69.4 €/MW hel, if only the electricity sector is taken into account. In this system about 20% of the energy is exchanged between the 13 regions, reflecting a rather decentralized character which is supplied 27% by stored energy. The major storage technologies are batteries for daily storage and power-to-gas for seasonal storage. Prosumers are likely to play a significant role due to favourable economics. A highly resilient energy system with very high energy security standards would increase the electricity cost by 23% to 85.6 €/MW hel. The results clearly show that a 100% renewable energy based system is feasible and lower in cost than nuclear energy and fossil carbon capture and storage alternatives.

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... La desfosilización del sector energético y la economía a nivel mundial requerirá cambios estructurales que sean radicales [20,68,69]. Esto debe diseñarse para traer múltiples beneficios al sistema humano-planeta [66,70] y, en consecuencia, también para la biosfera y la resiliencia climática [71]. ...
... The first SEP article [63] was published in 2013 and was applied to a thermal energy system. From 2013 to 2019, an average of 1.14 articles per year were published, adding up to a total of eight; five of them were on electric systems [65][66][67][68][69]. So far, four articles have been published this year (up to 2 March); three of them are on electric systems [72][73][74]. ...
... On the other hand, all of the studies that have applied thermal energy systems [63,64,70,71] have been performed at the sub-national level, specifically, at the urban level. Of the eight studies that have applied electric energy systems, one [74] was conducted at the transnational level, two [65,67] at the national level, and five [66,68,69,72,73] at the sub-national level-in the countryside and/or urban places. Therefore, the SEP articles show a tendency to include studies conducted at the local level. ...
Thesis
(In English Below) Obtener un sistema energético que contribuya a asegurar la estabilidad climática del planeta es uno de los desafíos más importantes de la primera mitad del siglo XXI. Con el propósito de contribuir en la búsqueda de vías que permitan superar la crisis climática global, pero desde acciones locales, y apelando a que la tecnología fotovoltaica (FV) cuenta con excelentes características para habilitar la transición energética que se necesita, esta tesis doctoral tiene como principal objetivo analizar, desde un enfoque global y local, el rol que la energía solar FV descentralizada podría jugar en la transición energética sostenible de un país y territorio específico. Para esto, se emplea como caso de estudio a Chile y particularmente, una de las regiones que lo conforma: la región de Aysén. Tanto Chile como la región de Aysén tienen aspectos que son un reflejo de la crisis global del Antropoceno, pero también cuentan con una gran oportunidad para implementar soluciones ejemplares basadas en sus enormes potenciales de energía renovable (ER). Para realizar dicho análisis se han considerado todos los sectores consumidores de energía y se utilizó una herramienta desarrollada por la Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT), con la que se modelaron escenarios de transición energética hacia un sistema 100 % basado en ER para Chile, desde un enfoque global y local, donde, en el enfoque local se incluyó a la región de Aysén. Los resultados revelan que, tanto en Chile como en la región de Aysén, lograr un sistema energético 100% renovable para el año 2050 es técnicamente factible y económicamente viable. En ese año, dependiendo del enfoque y escala territorial, la contribución a la generación eléctrica por parte de la tecnología FV en su conjunto varía entre 39–86 % y, la contribución de la FV descentralizada varía entre 9–12 %; no obstante, la FV descentralizada aporta entre un 27–52 % de la electricidad final que es mayormente consumida en las ciudades por los sectores eléctrico, térmico y transporte. A su vez, la energía solar FV descentralizada crearía en Chile entre el 9–15 % de los empleos anuales directos durante el periodo de transición. Es decir, entre los años 2020 y 2050, el sector de la FV descentralizada crearía 174.274 empleos directos. Además, los resultados también revelan que Chile puede alcanzar la neutralidad en emisiones de carbono en el año 2030 y, se puede convertir en un país emisor negativo de gases de efecto invernadero a partir del año 2035. Todo esto sería posible utilizando menos del 10 % del potencial tecno-económico de ER disponible en este país. Tras los resultados del trabajo de investigación realizado en esta tesis doctoral, se concluye que la energía solar FV es un elemento vital en la transición energética sostenible, así como también, alcanzar un sistema energético totalmente desfosilizado es más importante que lograr la neutralidad en las emisiones de carbono. Esto último se debe a que una transición a nivel país hacia un sistema energético 100 % renovable implicaría beneficios socio-ambientales y socioeconómicos locales, con impactos globales positivos que se necesitan con urgencia. Si Chile implementara una vía de transición hacia un sistema energético 100 % renovable, no solo podría convertirse en un caso ejemplar en el avance hacia una economía post-combustibles fósiles, si no que también podría contribuir a la transición energética global: a través de la extracción limpia de materias primas clave (como lo son el cobre y el litio), y a través de la producción de combustibles y químicos basados en ER. En resumen, la tecnología FV puede contribuir en la mitigación del cambio climático y la reducción de los niveles de contaminación del aire en las ciudades, al tiempo que impulsa el crecimiento económico local; todo esto, de una manera más descentralizada y participativa. ///////////////////////////////////////// Obtaining an energy system that will help to ensure the climactic stability of the planet is one of the most important challenges of the first half of the 21st century. In order to contribute to the search for ways to overcome the global climate crisis, from local activities, and appealing to the fact that photovoltaic (PV) technology has excellent characteristics which could enable the energy transition that is needed, this doctoral thesis has as its main objective the analysis, from a global and local approach, the role that decentralized solar PV could play in the sustainable energy transition of a specific country and territory. For this purpose, Chile and one of its regions (the Aysén region) are used as a case study. Both Chile and the Aysén region have aspects that reflect the global crisis of the Anthropocene, but they also present a great opportunity to implement exemplary solutions, based on their enormous renewable energy (RE) potentials. To carry out this analysis, all energy-consuming sectors were considered. A tool developed by the Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT) was used, with which energy transition scenarios were modelled towards a 100% RE-based system for Chile, from a global and local approach. The Aysén region was included in the local approach. The results reveal that, both in Chile and in the Aysén region, achieving a 100% RE system by 2050 is technically feasible and economically viable. In that year, depending on the approach and territorial scale, the contribution to electricity generation by PV technology as a whole would vary between 39–86%. The contribution of decentralized PV would be between 9–12%. However, decentralized PV would contribute 27–52% of the final electricity that is mostly consumed in cities by the power, heat and transport sectors. In turn, decentralized solar PV would create between 9–15% of annual direct jobs in Chile during the transition period. In other words, between 2020 and 2050, the decentralized PV sector would create 174,274 direct jobs. In addition, the results also reveal that Chile could achieve carbon neutrality in 2030 and could become a negative greenhouse gas emitter by 2035. All of this would be possible by using less than 10% of the techno-economic potential of RE available in this country. From the results of the research work carried out in this doctoral thesis, it is concluded that solar PV is a vital element in the sustainable energy transition. We also find that achieving a fully defossilized energy system is more important than achieving carbon neutrality. The latter is due to the fact that a transition at the country level towards a 100% RE system would imply local socio-environmental and socio-economic benefits, with positive urgently needed global impacts. If Chile implements a transition path towards a 100% RE system, it could not only become an exemplary case in moving towards a post-fossil fuel economy, but could also contribute to the global energy transition through the clean extraction of key raw materials (such as copper and lithium), and through the production of RE-based fuels and chemicals. In summary, PV technology can contribute to mitigating climate change and reducing air pollution levels in cities, while boosting local economic growth, doing all of this in a more decentralized and participatory way.
... The next group of studies deals with the research of ISPG in NEA considering environmental issues and renewables development [21][22][23][24][25]. ...
... The article [20] presents an analytical study of environmental aspects, both globally and locally, of electricity grid interconnection in NEA in terms of air quality, social, and health benefits. The study of an "idealized" ISPG in the NEA sub-region based entirely on environmentally friendly carbon-free and low-carbon energy sources (including wind, solar, hydro, biomass, wastes, and gas) was performed by [22]. The study argues that such a system may be cost-effective compared to nuclear energy and carbon capture and storage alternatives. ...
... Differences in optimization models used to study the NEA power grid. Source: compiled by authors based on data from [9,11,12,22]. ...
Article
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Transition to green energy is the dominant process in the electricity sector globally, including in North-East Asia (NEA). The interstate power grid expansion in the NEA will facilitate the large-scale development of intermittent and uncertain green generation. This paper is aimed at considering the structural and operating features and effectiveness of a potential NEA power grid with large-scale penetration of renewables. A computing and geo-information system provides collection, processing, storage, and geo-visualization of technical and economic data. It incorporates a mathematical model for the optimization of the expansion and operation of power systems. Benefits (including saving the capacity, investment, fuel cost, and total cost) of power interconnection have been estimated in the study. Transfer capability required for the interstate electric ties was calculated and proved quite significant. A tax on greenhouse gases emission from thermal power plants, including carbon dioxide (CO2), has been used in the study as an economic incentive to facilitate the penetration of renewable energy sources in NEA power interconnection. An installed capacity, power generation mix, power exchange among countries, and operating modes (dispatching) have been calculated for different levels of CO2 emission tax. This study has shown the economic viability of the interconnection, defined major indices of interstate transmission grid infrastructure, revealed the changes in the mix of generating capacities and their operation under conditions of large-scale expansion of renewables, and found out the roles of various countries with different levels of CO2 tax, detailed the impact of CO2 emission tax in encouraging capacity additions and power generation growth from renewables. These capacities altogether suppress the expansion of coal-fired power plants in the potential North-East Asia power grid and contribute to achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), particularly SDG 7, to ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy for all.
... In addition, they indicated that the super grid decreases the storage requirements and generations capacities, resulting in the cost reductions. Many similar studies reported the similar results for many super grids such as Middle East and North Africa (MENA) super grid [4], Eurasian super grid [5], North-East Asian super grid [6]), European super grid [7], and SAARC super grid [8]. All of the above studies reported that the renewable energy based super grid is more cost effective and feasible compared with the conventional grids. ...
... These constraints show the positivity on the deviational variables and decision variables, and the decision variables are integers. , 0 ij Qgn  and integer (6) , , , , , 0 ...
Article
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One-fourth population of the world lives in South Asia. The electricity generation for this population consumes the substantial fossil fuels, resulting in the significant emissions of harmful gases in the global environment. To protect the natural environment, South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) has planned a super smart grid (SSG) for the power sharing between South Asian countries through the integration of the renewable energy resources (RERs). However, the capability of these countries to construct such a mega power grid is unclear due to the unavailability of proper strategic analysis, lack of information about RERs potential, and the lack of decision making models. To address such issues, this paper analyzes the existing power grids in the SAARC countries focusing on the formation of a mega power grid. Then, the paper identifies the existing electricity potential of these countries based on the key renewable and non-renewable resources. Then, this paper develops an integer linear programming model based on the power generation cost, CO2 emissions, and disruption risk. This study solves the proposed model through the implementation of goal programming methods in an efficient mathematical optimization software (i.e. LINGO). The results exhibited that the SAARC countries have the capability to share a sustainable SSG through the substantial integration of RERs. For instance, the model solution based on 100% renewable power (i.e. Case 5) exhibited 36% cost savings, 86% CO2 emission reduction, and 39% risk reduction compared with non-renewable power based model solution (i.e. Case 1). Finally, this study performs the cost-benefit analysis for the existing and proposed power systems of SAARC countries. The results provide the various insights to policy makers and practitioners for the strategic decision making related to the SAARC SSG. In addition, the methodology of this paper can be adopted for other SSGs infrastructures around the world.
... The cost of electricity in a future grid with a 100% renewable supply is expected to be lower than that from traditional electricity supplies [8][9][10], although such estimates require extrapolation given that current electrical grids operate with significantly lower renewable energy penetration. For a demand following grid, the variable nature of renewable resources and energy requires that storage systems will be an important part of such systems. ...
... Here, we also limit the evaluation to the case where the energy is sourced locally and the variability is managed only with the storage, although it is recognized that further benefits may also be derived from long-distance transmission lines, such as high voltage DC [9]. While various estimates of the anticipated future costs for renewable electricity have been proposed [8][9][10], to the best of our knowledge no equivalent estimates of the future cost of heat from renewable electricity and thermal storage for high-temperature processes has yet been reported. In this context, it is necessary to build understanding of these costs in stages. ...
Article
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We report the upper and lower bounds for the levelized cost of high-temperature industrial process heat, supplied from electricity generated with solar-photovoltaic (PV) and wind turbines in combination with either thermal or electric battery storage using hourly typical meteorological year (TMY) data, in systems sized to supply between 80% and 100% of continuous thermal demand at a site in the northern part of Western Australia. The system is chosen to supply high-temperature air as the heat transfer media at temperatures of 1000 °C, which is a typical temperature for an alumina or a lime calcination plant. A simplified model of the electrical energy plant has been developed using performance characteristics of real PV and wind systems and TMY data of renewable energy resources. This was used to simulate a large sample of possible system configurations and find the optimal combination of the renewable resources and storage systems, sized to provide renewable shares (RES) of between 80% and 100% of the yearly demand. This allowed the upper and lower bounds to be determined for the cost of heat based on two scenarios in which the excess energy is either dumped (upper bound) or exported to the electricity grid (lower bound) at the average generating cost. The lower bound of the levelized cost of energy (LCOEL), which occurs for the system employing thermal storage, was estimated to range from USD 10/GJ to USD 24/GJ for RES from 80 to 100%. The corresponding upper bound (LCOEU), also estimated for the system using thermal storage, are between USD 16/GJ and USD 31/GJ, for RES between 80% and 100%. The utilization of electric battery storage instead of thermal storage was found to increase the LCOE values by a factor of two to four depending on the share of renewable energy. Compared with current Australian natural gas cost, none of the systems assessed configurations is economical without either a cost for CO2 emissions or a premium for low-carbon products. The estimated cost for CO2 emission that is needed to reach parity with current natural gas prices in Australia is also presented.
... L'objectif de ces modèles est de relier le système énergétique aux autres secteurs macro-économiques. Les modèles LEAP (Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning) [ [36,39,67] (la planification de l'installation des diverses centrales de production sur plusieurs années par exemple). L'horizon temporel des premiers est de l'ordre d'une ou plusieurs années alors que celui des seconds est souvent de plusieurs décennies. ...
... La période long-terme étudiée Chapitre 1. État de l'art est alors divisée en plusieurs segments ayant chacun son propre problème d'optimisation avec la sortie de l'un qui sert d'entrée au suivant. L'approche myope est utilisée par le modèle LUT [67] développé par la Lappeenranta University of Technology et appliqué en Inde et au Pakistan. De même, Mahbub et al. [71] ont développé un modèle bottom-up long-terme myope qui combine le logiciel de simulation EnergyPLAN et un algorithme évolutionnaire d'optimisation multi-objectifs. ...
Thesis
Le changement climatique et la raréfaction de certaines ressources fossiles sont à l'origine d'une évolution des attentes de la société à propos de la production énergétique. Le développement de nouveaux systèmes d'approvisionnement électrique doit prendre en compte différents impacts. Une des évolutions du mix électrique consiste à regrouper des technologies de production (conventionnelles ou renouvelables) et de stockage dans un sous-réseau local : un microgrid. Cette thèse propose de dimensionner les microgrids en considérant plusieurs objectifs économiques, techniques et environnementaux. La proposition de ce travail consiste en la prise en compte des aspects de pilotage dans les paramètres de conception des microgrids et l'intégration de cette modélisation dans un algorithme d'optimisation multi-objectifs sans pondération.Un outil d'aide à la décision a ainsi été développé. Après avoir identifié les enjeux de modélisation et d'optimisation des systèmes énergétiques, une simulation séquentielle de l'opération des microgrids a été mise en place, enrichie de divers indicateurs de performances (techniques, environnementaux et économiques) et implémentée dans un algorithme génétique. La simulation a été effectuée sur une période représentative de douze jours types tout en garantissant la fiabilité de l’évaluation des performances par rapport à une période d’opération réelle plus longue. Plusieurs solutions, compromis entre les objectifs, ont alors été trouvées. Leur diversité en termes de performances et de paramètres permet bien d'élargir l'espace de conception. De plus l’impact de la prise en compte de plusieurs stratégies de pilotage permet de trouver des combinaisons de technologies plus diverses. Ces résultats ont été analysés et les exigences d'évaluation et d'optimisation ont été vérifiées sur un cas d'étude réaliste. Finalement, la performance de l'approche a été validée par comparaison avec d'autres logiciels de référence (HOMER et iHOGA/MHOGA).
... Fig. 1 shows the process flow of the LUT model. This model was originally developed for the power sector only in an overnight design [69], further developed for describing a full transition scenario [15], and in a subsequent step designed with a full coupling of power and heat sectors [70]. In the meantime, the LUT model has been updated to integrate the power, heat, transport [16], and desalination [71] sectors, and, finally, the industry sector [17]. ...
... Resource potentials for Bolivia were then estimated for an array of RE technologies. Real weather data was used to estimate the solar, wind and hydro resources [69,79,80]. Potentials for biomass and waste resources were classified into solid biomass wastes, residues, and biogas according to Lopez et al. [21], and are shown in Table 2. Additionally, geothermal potential estimates were determined according to Aghahosseini et al. [81] and pumped hydro energy storage (PHES) potential estimates were done according to Ghorbani et al. [82]. ...
Article
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As the discourse surrounding 100% renewable energy systems has evolved, several energy system modelling tools have been developed to demonstrate the technical feasibility and economic viability of fully sustainable, sector coupled energy systems. While the characteristics of these tools vary among each other, their purpose remains consistent in integrating renewable energy technologies into future energy systems. This paper examines two such energy system models, the LUT Energy System Transition model, an optimisation model, and the EnergyPLAN simulation tool, a simulation model, and develops cost-optimal scenarios under identical assumptions. This paper further analyses different novel modelling approaches used by modellers. Scenarios are developed using the LUT model for Sun Belt countries, for the case of Bolivia, to examine the effects of multi and single-node structuring, and the effects of overnight and energy transition scenarios are analysed. Results for all scenarios indicate a solar PV dominated energy system; however, limitations arise in the sector coupling capabilities in EnergyPLAN, leading it to have noticeably higher annualised costs compared to the single-node scenario from the LUT model despite similar primary levelised costs of electricity. Multi-nodal results reveal that for countries with rich solar resources, high transmission from regions of best solar resources adds little value compared to fully decentralised systems. Finally, compared to the overnight scenarios, transition scenarios demonstrate the impact of considering legacy energy systems in sustainable energy system analyses.
... Resource datasets used are for the year 2005. Further details on data collection and potential of renewable resources in general can be found in [71], and the input profiles for wind and solar can be found in [9]. For the transport sector, demand was obtained according to the method described in [72] for the road, rail, marine, and aviation transport modes. ...
... To prepare the data for modelling, the potentials of different available RE resources across the country were calculated. Real weather data was used for the assessment of the energy potential, and solar PV, wind energy and hydropower potentials were derived based on [65,71,76]. Pakistan's wind and solar resource maps are provided in the Figures S39 and S40, Supporting Information. ...
Article
Full-text available
Pakistan is currently undertaking a substantial expansion of electricity generation capacity to provide electricity for all its end-users and to satisfy a fast-growing economy. Adoption of low-cost, abundant and clean renewable energy will not only fulfil its growing electricity , heat, transportation and desalinated water demand but also help achieve the goals set under the Paris Agreement. A technology-rich energy system model applied in hourly resolution has been used for investigating the transition in 5-year periods until 2050. This study demonstrates that a 100% renewable energy system across the power, heat, transport and desalination sectors is not only technically feasible but also economically viable. Solar pho-tovoltaics emerges as a key technology to generate electricity and contribute a share of 92% to the total primary energy demand across all sectors by 2050. The levelised cost of energy for a 100% renewable energy system is calculated as 56.1 €/MWh in 2050, lower than 70 €/MWh for the current fossil fuel-based system. A key feature of Pakistan's future energy system is the huge increase in demand across all energy sectors, particularly for desalinated water, which is almost 19% of the final energy demand. This share of energy for desalination is among the highest in the world. Direct and indirect electrification across all demand sectors increases the efficiency of the future energy system. Moreover, GHG emissions from all the sectors will drop to zero by 2050 in a fully sustainable energy scenario.
... China has put forward an ambitious strategy, which aims to adjust the power structure by increasing the proportion of renewable energy substantially, to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. Some studies suggest that the share of renewable energy needs to increase from 20% in 2020 to 60-80% in 2060 (Dai et al. 2016;ERINDRC 2015;Zou et al. 2017), and even 100% of the renewable energy system is considered possible (Bogdanov and Breyer 2016;Liu et al. 2011). ...
... According to the forecast data in Table 6, the overflow ratio amounts to three scenarios are 1.98%, 1.32%, and 0.87%, respectively, which means there are 80-200 TWh of wind and solar power is available for P2G facilities. In fact, compared with the high penetration rate of renewable energy scenarios in other literature (Bogdanov and Breyer 2016), the estimation of this surplus amount is still conservative, even with a low overflow rate. ...
Article
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Replacing conventional fossil fuel power plants with large-scale renewable energy sources (RES) is a crucial aspect of the decarbonization of the power sector and represents a key part of the carbon-neutral strategy of China. The high penetration rate of renewable energy in the electricity system, however, implies the challenges of dealing with the intermittency and fluctuation of RES. Power to gas (P2G), which can convert surplus renewable power into a chemical form of energy (i.e., synthetic gas), can help handle this challenge and supply new energy carriers for various energy sectors. By modeling three potential 2060 energy mix scenarios in China, this paper aims to describe the possible contribution of the high penetration rate of renewable energy combined with P2G in the future sustainable energy system. Different schemes are listed and compared, and the results are used in a basic economic evaluation of the synthetic gas production cost for the P2G plants. Ideally, nearly 18 million tons of carbon dioxide would be recycled and transformed into methane (around 9.37 km3) annually in China. Considering a zero price for the excess renewable power and future costs of the components, the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of the final production of methane is estimated at 0.86 $/m3SNG.
... The LUT Energy System Transition model works with a geographical multi-node, high time resolution, dispatch optimisation methodology, single objective investment optimisation methodology, and linear programming technique [19], to obtain cost-optimised scenarios for the whole Chilean energy system. The model has progressively been developed from the power sector [1,68] to the integration of power and heat [69], transport [70] and desalination [71] sectors, respectively. In the case of industrial fuels, the model has the capability to simulate the production of e-fuels (gaseous and liquid) [57,58] based on both green hydrogen [72] and CO 2 from direct air capture units [73], what is also known as power-to-X (PtX), but based on biomass as well. ...
... Another step in the country data preparation was estimating the potential of RE resources. To estimate the potential for solar, wind and hydro resources, real weather data were used according to Afanasyeva et al. [80], Bogdanov et al. [68] and Verzano [81], respectively. Sustainable bioenergy potential was estimated based on Mensah et al. [82]. ...
Article
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The aim of this research is to analyse the impact of renewable energy (RE) technologies and sector coupling via analysing the transition pathways towards a sustainable energy system in Chile. Four energy transition scenarios for the power, heat, transport and desalination sectors were assessed using the LUT Energy System Transition model. The current policy scenario was modelled and compared with three best policy scenarios. The results showed that the transition to a 100 % renewable-based energy system by 2050 is technically feasible. Further, such an energy system would be more cost-efficient than the current policy scenario to reach carbon neutrality by 2050. The results also indicate that Chile could reach carbon neutrality by 2030 and become a negative greenhouse gas emitter country by 2035. In a 100 % renewable-based energy system, solar photovoltaics (PV) would contribute 86 % of electricity generation, which would represent 83 % of the total final energy demand for the year 2050. This would imply the use of about 10 % of the available techno-economic RE potential of the country. Three vital elements (high level of renewable electrification across all sectors, flexibility and RE-based fuel production) and three key enablers (solar PV, interconnection and full sectoral integration) were identified in order to transition to a fully sustainable energy system. Chile could contribute to the global sustainable energy transition and advance to the global post-fossil fuels economy through the clean extraction of key raw materials and RE-based fuels and chemicals production.
... The literature has claimed advantages regarding decreasing costs related to the heat sector. In studies such as [25] and [62], researchers concluded that interconnections between sectors powered by RE, including the heat sector, have the potential to decrease overall costs of energy systems and providing high amounts of heat [63]. Furthermore, as stated in Section 1, taking advantage of waste heat sources is one of the key ways to increasing efficiency while decreasing costs of energy systems and the possibility of using such source to power CO2 Direct Air Capture (DAC) [64] contributes even more to the 100% RE scenario. ...
Article
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The energy transition towards a scenario with 100% renewable energy sources (RES) for the energy system is starting to unfold its effects and is increasingly accepted. In such a scenario, a predominant role will be played by large photovoltaic and wind power plants. At the same time, the electrification of energy consumption is expected to develop further, with the ever-increasing diffusion of electric transport, heat pumps, and power-to-gas technologies. The not completely predictable nature of the RES is their well-known drawback, and it will require the use of energy storage technologies, in particular large-scale power-to-chemical conversion and chemical-to-power re-conversion, in view of the energy transition. Nonetheless, there is a lack in the literature regarding an analysis of the potential role of small–medium CCHP technologies in such a scenario. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to address what could be the role of the Combined Heat and Power (CHP) and/or Combined Cooling Heat and Power (CCHP) technologies fed by waste heat within the mentioned scenario. First, in this paper, a review of small–medium scale CHP technologies is performed, which may be fed by low temperature waste heat sources. Then, a review of the 100% RE scenario studied by researchers from the Lappeenranta University of Technology (through the so-called “LUT model”) is conducted to identify potential low temperature waste heat sources that could feed small–medium CHP technologies. Second, some possible interactions between those mentioned waste heat sources and the reviewed CHP technologies are presented through the crossing data collected from both sides. The results demonstrate that the most suitable waste heat sources for the selected CHP technologies are those related to gas turbines (heat recovery steam generator), steam turbines, and internal combustion engines. A preliminary economic analysis was also performed, which showed that the potential annual savings per unit of installed kW of the considered CHP technologies could reach EUR 255.00 and EUR 207.00 when related to power and heat production, respectively. Finally, the perspectives about the carbon footprint of the CHP/CCHP integration within the 100% renewable energy scenario were discussed.
... The projected cumulative installed capacities and required additional capacities per period are tabulated in Table 3, in addition to the projected PV module efficiencies according to Vartiainen et al. [191]. This leads to the additional required area in each 5-year period, the total area and the fraction of the total land area, assuming a capacity density of 75 MW/km 2 for 15% efficient PV modules [11]. ...
Chapter
Solar photovoltaics has demonstrated the strongest long-term growth rates of all energy technologies since the 1950s. It has been recognized as the new “king” of energy markets, having emerged within the past few years as the least-cost source of electricity. Along with supporting energy system technologies, in particular batteries and electrolyzers, it can be anticipated that solar PV will emerge as the main source of primary energy for humankind within only a few decades. In parallel the research field of 100% renewable energy system analyses has developed strongly since the mid-2000s, with a growing number of research groups and organizations joining the 100% renewable energy community. The role of solar PV in these analyses has increased steadily, as the true potential role of solar PV in delivering 100% renewable energy supply has been identified in cutting-edge research in recent years. The results of the research, projections, and empirical statistics indicate the dawn of a Solar Age, which may be the key driving force to enable a rebalancing of human activities within the biogeochemical limits of planet Earth. Solar photovoltaic technology offers a crucial foundation for further progress toward a truly sustainable civilization of the highest technical, economic, and cultural standards, leaving no one behind.
... Examples are e.g., given by Lund and Mathiesen 2009, Nitsch 2010, Esteban. Zhang and Utama 2012, Cabrera, Lund and Carta 2018, Katsaprakakis and Voumvoulakis 2018, Trondheim et al. 2018, Lund 2018, Bogdanov and Breyer 2018, Dowling et a. 2020. These procedures require sets of meteorological data which reasonably should have a minimal length of one year, that typically form the bases of a time series simulation scheme to track the systems performance depending on the setting of the capacities. ...
... Economic performance is important to the use of 100% RESs. Dmitrii et al. [26] defined a cost-optimal 100% RES for Northeast Asia, including China. Compared with the conventional energy system, which depends on nuclear energy or fossil fuels, a 100% RES is feasible and has a lower cost. ...
Article
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A 100% renewable energy system (RES) satisfies a user’s energy demand using only renewable energy, which is an important energy supply in China given that the government aims to realize carbon neutrality by 2060. The design and operation of 100% RESs in different areas would vary significantly due to the impacts of climates and geographical features. This study aimed to investigate the economic and environmental performance of 100% RESs for residential communities in different areas of China. In total, 30 typical cities were chosen based on the climate characteristics and the availability of renewable energy resources. The genetic algorithm was selected to obtain the optimal design of the 100% RES in each area by taking the minimum total annual cost and the minimum CO2 emissions as optimization objectives. The results showed that 100% RESs were dominated by solar energy and biomass. The investment could be recovered in 8 years if the economic performance was optimized in most areas, but the payback period became longer when the 100% RES was optimized when considering environmental performance. The emissions could be reduced by 86–99% for CO2 and 64–97% for NOx. The results of this study would provide data support for the investment of 100% RESs in rural or suburban areas of China.
... The electricity prices for residential, commercial, and industrial end-users are provided in the Supplementary Material (Table S6) and are projected from 2020 to 2050 based on a methodology formulated in [59], [75]. In addition, lower limits for RE installed capacities for 2020 are taken from [74] while the upper limits are calculated based on methodology in [40], [76]. Values of the upper and lower limits of all technologies are shown in the Supplementary Material (Table S7-S8). ...
Article
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Sustainable energy systems form an indispensable component of sustainable development especially in developing economies. Understanding the system wide techno-economics of sustainable energy systems therefore becomes critical in shaping the energy system mix within a region or country. This paper explores progressive and optimal pathways towards a fully sustainable energy system for Cameroon by 2050 in power, heat, and transport sectors as a representative case study for the Central Africa region. Six key scenarios are modelled with the LUT Energy System Transition Model to capture key policy and sustainability constraints. Results from the study show that, the optimal least cost technology combination for a fully sustainable energy system for Cameroon with net-zero greenhouse gas emissions in 2050 is dominated by solar PV (86%), complemented by hydropower (8%) and bioenergy (5%). These results show that a fully sustainable energy system for Cameroon is feasible from both the technical and economic perspectives, if policy commitment is oriented towards these low-cost energy solutions. The results of this research provide a reliable reference for planning transitions towards a 100% renewable energy-based energy system in countries within the Central Africa region.
... The latest status and perspectives on 100% RE systems have been reviewed in [30] and an interconnected European electricity system based on 100% RE supply was presented respectively in [31] and [32] using one-year weather data with a spatial resolution of 0.3125°× 0.3125° and 0.75°× 0.75°, where the model was run for a full year with hourly resolution. Similar weather-driven planning model with data spatial resolution of 0.45°× 0.45° was applied to optimize the portfolios of energy technologies in North-East Asia [33] and America [34], where regional interconnection is taken into consideration. The role of inter-provincial transmission is investigated in a fully renewable Chinese power system [35,36]. ...
Article
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Under the United Nations ‘Net-Zero 2050’ target, transition towards a 100% renewable energy (RE) sourced power grid has become an ever more attractive pathway. However, the inherent fluctuations and intermittency of RE generation, particularly wind and solar, would inevitably pose great technical and economic barriers to their massive integration into the energy supply. A global interconnected electricity grid to utilize the complementarity of diverse demand patterns and RE sources provides an appealing solution. With detailed datasets, this paper is therefore to assess the economic benefits of such a global electricity grid with 100% RE generation using the state-of-the-art Ultra High Voltage Direct Current transmission technologies. The global electricity grid is split into 14 regions with 20 potential interconnection routes and regional geographical centroid is treated as equivalent node for inter-regional distance calculation. Global hourly meteorological re-analysis data of up to seven years with spatial resolution of 0.25° × 0.25° (approximate 28 km×28km) is used to generate regional representative generation power series. With the minimum annual system cost for meeting demand in 2050, an integrated planning and power dispatch model is presented to determine the additional regional capacities of RE sources, storage systems, and the interconnectors from 2030, and in which load curtailment is incorporated and ‘N-1’ security are much stricter than those traditionally applied. The paper provides a comprehensive analysis with 24 cases based on different supply portfolios which show a 20% cost saving through specific global interconnections thereby lending support to the concept of a Global Electricity Grid.
... According to these classification criteria, the 88 reviewed studies make use of 28 different energy system models (not counting the EnergyScope model, which we present in the next Section); note that, if more than one model is used in a given study, only the core model is ac- [103], Calliope [104], LUT [105], H2RES [106], GenX [107], [R]E 24/7, among others). For example, Calliope is a mature modelling framework mainly developed for -and mainly applied to -the power sector (however, the framework allows considering also other sectors). ...
Article
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Deep decarbonisation – i.e. the transition towards net-zero emissions energy systems – will be enabled by a high penetration of intermittent renewables, storage and sector-coupling technologies. In this paper, we present a novel modelling approach to capture the increasing complexity of such future energy systems and help policy makers choose among the different possible transition scenarios. Salient features of our model, consisting of an extended and regionalised version of EnergyScope (Limpens et al., 2019 [1]), are a low computational time and a concise formulation which make it suitable for uncertainty and what-if analyses. As a case study, the model is applied to devise scenarios for the Italian energy transition. Specifically, we develop the first open-source whole-energy system model of Italy and assess the feasibility of its decarbonisation strategy with respect to uncertainties in the deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) and renewable technologies. Results show that emissions can be cut by 79%–97% vs. 1990 levels thanks to a radical electrification of the energy system coupled to a wide deployment of renewables and efficient energy conversion technologies. Finally, we discuss the synergies, advantages and disadvantages of our proposed approach with respect to alternative modelling approaches used across 88 recent deep decarbonisation studies. The analysis suggests that our model, thanks to its computational efficiency and a snapshot approach (i.e., modelling a target-year in the future), can complement more detailed and established energy models optimising the energy transition pathway (i.e., modelling the pathway from today to the target year).
... Various renewable energy sources have a utilizable potential to provide added value to the economy in countries. The fact that the potential is not fully utilized puts the world's economy under pressure and causes negative effects on the ecosystem, especially air pollution and climate change [7]. ...
Article
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In the study, the current and future status of renewable energy resources were compiled in the light of large databases of national and international renewable energy institutions, and the latest situation in the world in the transition to 100% renewable energy was examined. The extent of the goal for the transition to 100% renewable energy has been determined, and predictions have been made based on all this information. In today's world where energy and environmental problems are on the agenda, countries' transition to renewable energy is the primary solution. This goal is called the transition to 100% renewable energy, which brings advantages such as providing needed energy and producing clean energy. Today, renewable energy sources account for more than one-third of the global energy capacity, and the world is rapidly moving towards 100% renewable energy. Compared with 2017, the total amount of renewable energy in 2018 increased by 181 GW, and the number of countries with an increase in the proportion of renewable energy increased. Taking into account the external dependence of the use of fossil fuels and environmental issues, this development is at a promising level in the future. In order to shift from highly polluting oil resources to natural gas and renewable resources, this article aims to investigate the current global energy transition trends, and then propose some important strategies to get closer to upstream goals and obligations in this way.
... Examples are e.g., given by Lund and Mathiesen 2009, Nitsch 2010, Esteban. Zhang and Utama 2012, Cabrera, Lund and Carta 2018, Katsaprakakis and Voumvoulakis 2018, Trondheim et al. 2018, Lund 2018, Bogdanov and Breyer 2018, Dowling et a. 2020. These procedures require sets of meteorological data which reasonably should have a minimal length of one year, that typically form the bases of a time series simulation scheme to track the systems performance depending on the setting of the capacities. ...
Conference Paper
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The sizing of the generation capacity and the storage devices necessary to guaranty certain levels of autonomy and security of supply in solar energy systems shows a high sensitivity to details in the evolution of the driving meteorological parameters. For increased reliability with quantified uncertainty the use of multi-annual time series and is mandatory. Here a multi decadal set is used to inspect the sensitivity to details of irradiance series and the length of the time series inspected on the sizing of a PV plus storage system for an autonomous power supply system. In addition, the variability of sizing results when using data bases from different sources-satellite derived data and data stemming from reanalysis schemes is analyzed. The data applied refer to the location Faroe Islands.
... Studies on the Northeast Asian ISPG, i.e., the North East Asia Regional Electric System Ties and the Gobitek project are underway [1,[51][52][53][54][55][56][57][58]. ...
Article
This study analyzes the process of electric power system integration in various regions worldwide. This process is implemented by creating both interstate electric ties and power grids. The analysis is comprehensive and examines the system, spatial, technical, organizational, and market aspects of the integration. Various countries, including developed countries such as Europe and North America, as well as economically developing countries such as Central America and Africa, are involved in this process. However, the rates and scales of electric power integration differ across various regions worldwide. The analysis shows that the process of electric power integration, which has decades of history, is still ongoing, despite the growth of other trends, such as the development of distributed generation. Further electricity integration is expected to lead to the formation of a global power interconnection in the long term.
... The capacity factor profiles for rooftop PV, floating PV (optimally fixed-tilted) and wind energy are calculated according to Bogdanov et al. [79] using global weather data for the year 2005 from NASA [80,81] and reprocessed by the German Aerospace Centre [82]. Using hourly average data from several years might capture yearly variabilities, but it will also disrupt the specific characteristics of an exemplary and complementary weather year, which is why one exemplary year is chosen. ...
Article
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Low-lying coastal areas and archipelago countries are particularly threatened by the impacts of climate change. Concurrently, many island states still rely on extensive use of imported fossil fuels, above all diesel for electricity generation, in addition to hydrocarbon-based fuels to supply aviation and marine transportation. Land area is usually scarce and conventional renewable energy solutions cannot be deployed in a sufficient way. This research highlights the possibility of floating offshore technologies being able to fulfil the task of replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy solutions in challenging topographical areas. On the case of the Maldives, floating offshore solar photovoltaics, wave power and offshore wind are modelled on a full hourly resolution in two different scenarios to deal with the need of transportation fuels: By importing the necessary, carbon neutral synthetic e-fuels from the world market, or by setting up local production capacities for e-fuels. Presented results show that a fully renewable energy system is technically feasible in 2030 with a relative cost per final energy of 120.3 €/MWh and 132.1 €/MWh, respectively, for the two scenarios in comparison to 105.7 €/MWh of the reference scenario in 2017. By 2050, cost per final energy can be reduced to 77.6 €/MWh and 92.6 €/MWh, respectively. It is concluded that floating solar photovoltaics and wave energy converters will play an important role in defossilisation of islands and countries with restricted land area.
... In [10] ES sizing methods have been tested for the 22 kV distribution network in south Western Australia, also the ES applications for direct current MV grid are presented in the literature [11]. The HV applications are based on the bulk ESs [12] installed as a part of a hybrid power plant comprising wind, solar and ES [13], in scenarios assuming 100% renewable energy power systems, e.g. in North-East Asia [14] or for frequency stabilization [15]. Bulk ESs are also used for increasing the utilization of the high voltage direct current transmission system [16]. ...
Article
Microgrids with renewable power are becoming a widespread alternative for decarbonizing the electrical sector in light of climate change and global warming. However, such widespread penetration of renewables degrades some parameters of power quality along the low voltage utility grid. This research conducts an experiment with an advanced metering infrastructure of a power utility grid with hundreds of thousands of smart grid devices. The experiment identifies the location of the power quality disturbances. The results of the measurements have shown that the power quality parameters are mainly degraded along the downstream section of the low voltage power utility grid, despite the fulfillment of the regulatory quality requirements in the upstream high voltage substation. Thus, the novelty of the approach presented in the paper consists in the use of relatively low capacity energy storage units to locally mitigate the power quality disturbances, keeping them as close as possible to their source in the low voltage grid, instead of using large energy storage units connected to the medium voltage grid. Moreover, the research evaluated the parameters of power capacity, charge–discharge rate, weight, size, and the Levelized Cost Of Energy (LCOE) implemented with five types of energy storage technology. Lithium-Ion Capacitor (LIC) presents the lowest LCOE. However, service type and location parameters also play an essential role in selecting other different types of energy storage technology. This research shows that locating small energy storage units close to the source of power quality disturbance is cost-effective and offers excellent potential for widespread implementation in the low voltage distribution grid.
... Some projects include the European Super Grid [14], the Asia Pacific Super Grid [15], the South-East Asia or ASEAN Power Grid [16], and the North-East Asian Super Grid [16], which connects Japan, South Korea, North Korea, China, and Mongolia. The more extensive version of this proposal is the so-called Asia Super Grid (ASG), which not only can connect the aforementioned five countries, but also Taiwan, Thailand, the Philippines, and India [17]. ...
... The sectoral and categorywise distribution of jobs across the energy value chain created in North India through the transition period is shown in Fig. 12. The [63]. The total land required for utility-scale solar PV is around 7% of the land area of Rajasthan, the desert state with excellent solar resources. ...
Article
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The transition away from fossil fuels towards renewable energy is critical in preventing perilous climate change, and cities around the world have a significant role in enabling this transition. Cities are innately centres of human, economic and intellectual capital, also contributing to the growing energy demand around the world. This research is a first of its kind to explore the technical feasibility and economic viability of 100% renewable energy systems including power, heat, transport and desalination sectors for a global megacity like Delhi within the North Indian grid region. It presents a technology-rich, multi-sectoral, multi-regional and cost-optimal energy transition pathway for Delhi, which is a hub within the regional energy system. The results of this research indicate that a megacity such as Delhi can benefit and drive a regional energy transition, with reduction in primary energy of over 40%, reduction in energy costs by over 25%, reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, air pollution and associated health costs. While creating more than three times the number of direct energy jobs as of today across North India and Delhi. With the case of Delhi within the North Indian grid, this research provides snapshots of the current and future energy landscapes and discusses several aspects of an energy transition pathway that could lead to an affordable, efficient, sustainable and secure energy future for megacities around the world.
... New approaches and management such as; rolling horizon strategy [32], game-theoretic approach [60], consensus and innovations approach [83], and metaheuristic optimization approaches [131] are introduced. Several surveys and reviews are also carried out to highlight the critical issues in smart grid technologies [114], future trends and electrical power demand forecasting in MGs and smart grids [57], and the optimization technique in MGs integrated hybrid energy systems [40] ESS development is one of the common fields of study which include cooperative or coordinated control of distributed ESS in MG [67], [98], alleviate power fluctuation control strategy based on improved partial swarm optimization [129], and economic allocations and real-time simulations [38], [80], [91]. Several energy storage technologies, hybrid ESS as a transportation application, comparative life cycle cost analysis, recent developments, design and control methods, and hybrid ESS in MG application are presented in several review articles [27], [41], [53], [88], [102], [106], [125], [136]. ...
Article
The optimal algorithm of Energy Storage System (ESS) has gained remarkable attention in developing a microgrid (MG) system to reduce the intensity of carbon emission in the electricity sector and alleviate the environmental impact by 2050. This article provides a historical background and a comprehensive analysis of the optimal algorithm of ESS in MG applications. A brief search has been directed through the Scopus database with some predefined conditions on the last week of January 2021 over 11 years to select the top-cited articles. This bibliometric study is evaluated in this field over the last decades based on the year of publication, interrelation of co- occurrence keywords, articles type, country of origin, journal, and publisher that published the 120 top-cited articles. A sum of 4995 articles was revealed within the year 2010 to 2020 in the field of the optimal algorithm of ESS in MG applications, and the top-most 120 papers were received in total 23003 citations (mean-119.69; median-157.5). Articles having the highest citation revealed in 30 different journals, 27 different regions and 6 different publishers. This bibliometric approach of ESS in MG applications offers the trends of research, gaps of this field, and knowledge essential for further development and advancement in this area. It is predicted that extracting, evaluating, and investigating the top-most cited articles will support further research in the optimal algorithm of ESS in MG applications.
... As a result, with the development of renewable power plants, more employment can be created for a given investment. In addition to the abovementioned items, references (Bogdanov and Breyer 2016;Ghorbani et al. 2020) presented a techno-economic framework of 100% RE system for the northeast Asian area in detail which is given in Fig. 8. Fig. 8 Techno-economic framework of 100% RE system for the northeast Asian area ...
Chapter
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The limited fossil fuels and the problems associated with greenhouse gas emissions have made clear needs for more and more attention to renewable energies. The high growth of energy consumption in Iran and the exodus of major oil and gas exporters since the end of this century seriously affect the country’s development. Additionally, short-term planning based on the current economic decision-making model can be the biggest obstacle to the growth of renewable energy (RE) production in many developing countries. In this chapter, while briefly introducing capacities and implementation of renewable energies in Iran, the importance of using renewable energies to obtain sustainable development in this country is discussed. Then, the benefits of sustainability in energy, management problems, technical and economic process, policies, planning, and general challenges that have failed to adequately develop these huge resources in the country are explained. Finally, appropriate solutions are provided to address such problems from a techno-economic perspective.
... Green hydrogen will be essential to the decarbonisation of hard-to-abate sectors such as steel manufacture, long-haul transport, shipping and aviation [1][2][3] . It may also be used for the seasonal storage of renewable electricity [1][2][3][4][5][6][7] and as a chemical feedstock [1][2][3][4][5] . However, the levelised cost of green hydrogen (LCOH) is presently not competitive with fossil fuels. ...
Article
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Renewable, or green, hydrogen will play a critical role in the decarbonisation of hard-to-abate sectors and will therefore be important in limiting global warming. However, renewable hydrogen is not cost-competitive with fossil fuels, due to the moderate energy efficiency and high capital costs of traditional water electrolysers. Here a unique concept of water electrolysis is introduced, wherein water is supplied to hydrogen- and oxygen-evolving electrodes via capillary-induced transport along a porous inter-electrode separator, leading to inherently bubble-free operation at the electrodes. An alkaline capillary-fed electrolysis cell of this type demonstrates water electrolysis performance exceeding commercial electrolysis cells, with a cell voltage at 0.5 A cm⁻² and 85 °C of only 1.51 V, equating to 98% energy efficiency, with an energy consumption of 40.4 kWh/kg hydrogen (vs. ~47.5 kWh/kg in commercial electrolysis cells). High energy efficiency, combined with the promise of a simplified balance-of-plant, brings cost-competitive renewable hydrogen closer to reality.
... Australia (AEMO, 2013;Ali et al., 2019;Blakers et al., 2017;Elliston et al., 2013;Keck et al., 2019;Lenzen et al., 2016;Li, M. et al., 2020a;Li, M. et al., 2020b;Yousefzadeh and Lenzen, 2019), the USA (Becker et al., 2014;Budischak et al., 2013;Jacobson et al., 2015) and China (Huber and Weissbart, 2015)), regional (e.g. Europe (Bussar et al., 2016;Gils et al., 2017;Pleßmann and Blechinger, 2017;Schlachtberger et al., 2017), Asia (Bogdanov and Breyer, 2016; and North America ) or global level (Bogdanov et al., 2019;Breyer et al., 2017;Jacobson and Delucchi, 2011;Jacobson et al., 2018), where solar and wind represent a dominate share in their low carbon grid configurations. With intermittent solar and wind resources introducing great variability into the grid, bioenergy is expected to play an important role in sustainable recovery (IPCC, 2020) due to its ability to balance such variability (Li, M. et al., 2020b), and its high employment needs that could potentially generate a third of all renewable energy jobs (IRENA, 2020a). ...
Article
Responding to the global crises - Covid19 and climate change - governments around the world are formulating green recovery plans to stimulate economic growth, boost clean energy technologies and cut emissions. Potential transition pathways for low carbon energy systems, however, remain as open questions. Generally, the simulation of biomass in the grid models is limited in their tempo-spatial resolution, transition pathways description, and/or biomass feedstock supply representation. This study aims to provide spatio-temporal highly resolved grid configurations featuring disaggregated biomass feedstocks, to assess Australia's potential energy transition pathways and 100% renewable electricity supply scenarios under various biomass bidding strategies and cost assumptions. We find that, as carbon prices increase, bioelectricity will prove to be a cost-effective flexible option compared to other low-carbon (such as CSP) and fossil-based flexible options (e.g. coal and gas), with its generation share reaching ∼9%-12% at higher carbon price scenarios. Biomass power plants can be well suited for operating in gap-filling mode to provide flexible power generation and to facilitate grid stability and load balancing. In light of the high biomass resource potential in Australia, keeping bioelectricity in the generation mix is beneficial for reducing system capacity and cost by 32% and 21%, respectively, under a future renewable-dominated Australian grid system.
Article
With technological advancements in High Voltage Direct Current, solar energy transmission over long distances and between countries is now possible. As a result, this paper conducts a thorough Life-Cycle Cost analysis in Turkey. To that end, a 1000 km long High Voltage Direct Current Overhead Transmission Line between Mersin, Balikesir, and Istanbul is being built, which will transport energy generated by solar power plants from potentially high solar regions to the most energy-deficient regions. The motivation is testing the hypothesis that any investment should be contingent on the investment cost, being it amortized and generating profits for the interest rate of any country. This hypothesis is tested in this paper with a comparative cumulative cash flow for High Voltage Direct Current converters using the net present value. Data is gathered from various studies as well as the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. The 27year Life-Cycle Cost projection has shown that the High Voltage Direct Current-Voltage Source Converter-Overhead Transmission Line outperformed the best with a 448,61M€ net present value, and a break-even 9 years after the beginning of the project pertained to a 1500 MW power rating option. This investment satisfies Turkey's condition in terms of opportunity cost and positive externality. The innovation of this paper is the proposal of an efficient operation of increasing solar energy systems with increasing High Voltage Direct Current transmission systems as an alternative energy solution to meet energy demands in the context of a growing economy. Meanwhile, this research can serve as a model for developing countries, not only for economic reasons, but also for environmental concerns.
Article
Water electrolysis powered by renewable electricity will likely be critical to a future hydrogen economy. However, the typical use of strongly acidic or alkaline electrolytes necessitates the use of expensive materials, while bubbles add to capital and operational costs, due to blocking of the electrode surface and the necessary use of pumps and gas-liquid separators. Here ‘bubble-free’ oxygen evolution at mild pH is carried out using an electrocatalyst that mimics photosystem II (PSII). The bubble-free electrode includes a gas-extracting Gore-Tex® membrane. Edge-functionalised graphene (EFG) is included to mimic the metal-binding local protein environment, and the tyrosine residue, in the oxygen evolving complex (OEC) of PSII, while MnOx and Ca²⁺ are incorporated to mimic the Mn4CaO5 cluster. Interaction between EFG, MnOx, and Ca²⁺ results in a significant, 130 mV fall in the overpotential required to drive electrocatalytic oxygen evolution at 10 mA cm⁻², compared to the electrode without these biomimetic components.
Article
This study examines the impacts on energy costs and requirements of interconnecting versus isolating the electric grids of countries in Western Europe when each country's all-purpose energy is provided by 100 % wind, water, and sunlight (WWS). A weather model is used to predict wind and solar fields and building heat and cold loads. A grid model is used to match electricity, heat, cold, and hydrogen demand with WWS supply; electricity, heat, cold, and hydrogen storage; and demand response. Stable solutions are found for all countries, including the smallest (Luxembourg and Gibraltar) and largest (France, Germany, Spain, Italy, and the United Kingdom), and for all combinations of countries. Results indicate that interconnecting countries reduces aggregate annual energy costs, overbuilding of generators and storage, energy shedding, and land/water requirements in most, but not all, situations. Interconnecting Western Europe may decrease aggregate annual energy costs ∼13 % relative to isolating each country. The best reductions are found by interconnecting hydropower-rich Norway with Denmark (20.6 %) and Northwestern Europe (13.7 %). Interconnecting the smallest countries, Luxembourg and Gibraltar, with larger countries benefits all countries. Whether isolated or interconnected, all countries examined, including France and Germany, can maintain a stable grid at low cost with 100 % WWS.
Article
Globally, more than 740 million people live on islands which are often seen as ideal environments for the development of renewable energy systems. Hereby, they play the role to demonstrate technical solutions as well as political transition pathways of energy systems to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The growing number of articles on 100% renewable energy systems on islands is analyzed with a focus on technical solutions for transition pathways. Since the first “100% renewable energy systems on islands”‐article in a scientific journal in 2004, 97 articles handling 100% renewable energy systems on small islands were published and are reviewed in this article. In addition, a review on 100% renewable energy systems on bigger island states is added. Results underline that solar PV as well as wind are the main technologies regarding 100% RES on islands. Not only for the use of biomass but for all RES area limitation on islands needs to be taken more seriously, based on full energy system studies and respective area demand. Furthermore, it is shown that there is still not the same common sense in the design approach including and starting at the energy needs as well as on multi‐sectoral approach. The consideration of maritime transport, aviation, cooling demands, and water systems beyond seawater desalination is only poorly considered in existing studies. Future research should also focus on developing pathways to transform the existing conventional infrastructure stepwise into a fully renewable system regarding also the interconnections with the mainland and neighboring islands. This article is categorized under: Policy and Economics > Green Economics and Financing Energy Systems Economics > Economics and Policy Energy Systems Analysis > Economics and Policy Energy Systems Analysis > Systems and Infrastructure Ninety‐seven articles handling 100% renewable energy systems on small islands are reviewed, most of them belonging to Europe while further regions are underrepresented in scientific literature.
Thesis
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There are undeniable signs from all over the world demonstrating that climate change is already upon us. Numerous scientific studies have warned of dire consequences should humankind fail to keep average global temperatures from rising beyond 1.5°C. Drastic measures to eliminate greenhouse gas emissions from all economic activities across the world are essential. Major emphasis has been on the energy sector, which contributes the bulk of GHG emissions. Inevitably, energy scenarios describing future transition pathways towards low, and zero emissions energy systems are commonly proposed as mitigation strategies. However, there is growing awareness in the research community that energy transitions should be understood and analysed not only from technical and economical perspectives but also from a social perspective. This research explores the broader ramifications of a global energy transition from various dimensions: costs and externalities of energy production, democratisation of future energy systems and the role of prosumers, employment creation during energy transitions at the global, regional and national levels and the effects of air pollution during energy transitions across the world. This research builds on fundamental techno-economic principles of energy systems and relies firmly on a cost driven rationale for determining cost optimal energy system transition pathways. Techno-economic analyses of energy transitions around the world are executed with the LUT Energy System Transition Model, while the corresponding socioeconomic aspects are expressed in terms of levelised cost of electricity, cost effective development of prosumers, job creation, and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions along with air pollution. Findings during the course of this original research involved novel assessments of the levelised cost of electricity encompassing externalities across G20 countries, cost optimal prosumer modelling across the world, estimates of job creation potential of various renewables, storage and power-to-X technologies including the production of green hydrogen and e-fuels during global, regional and national energy transitions. The novel research methods and insights are published in several articles and presented in this thesis, which highlight robust socioeconomic benefits of transitioning the current fossil fuels dominated global energy system towards renewables complemented by storage and flexible power-to-X solutions, resulting in near zero emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants. These research findings and insights have significant relevance to stakeholders across the energy landscape and present a compelling case for the rapid transformation of energy systems across the world. However, the research does have limitations and is based on energy transition pathways that are inherent with uncertainties and some socioeconomic challenges. Nonetheless, actions to enhance and accelerate the ongoing energy transition across the world must be prioritised, if not for technical feasibility or economic viability, but for the social wellbeing of human society and future generations.
Article
China and its neighboring countries are energy-dependent regions with strong resource complementarity and significant benefits of cross-border grid interconnection. However, the power interconnection of the whole Greater China region is still far from being realized. In addition to internal factors, external geopolitical issues, grid interconnection technical issues, and geographical obstacles also pose certain security challenges to the creation of regional power grids. To quantify the security of power grid interconnection between China and neighboring countries, this study proposes a security assessment framework for the power interconnection between China and neighboring countries from the five dimensions of politics, economy, law, technology, and geographic environment. We collected the observable panel data of China's neighboring countries from 2011 to 2018 and used the entropy method to objectively evaluate the security of power interconnection between China and 22 countries in the four regions of Northeast Asia, Central Asia, South Asia, and Southeast Asia. The study proposes the feasible paths for power interconnection between China and surrounding countries based on the investigation on the interconnection advantages and security shortcomings of each region and country by combining the endowment of renewable energy resources in each region.
Article
Plasma catalysis is an emerging process electrification technology for industry decarbonization. Plasma-catalytic dry reforming of methane (DRM) relies on the mutual effects of the plasma and the catalyst leading to the higher chemical conversion efficiency. The effects of catalyst surfaces on the plasma are predicted to play a major role, yet they remain unexplored. Here, a 1D plasma fluid model combined with 0D surface kinetics is developed to reveal how the surface reactions on platinum (Pt) catalyst affect the redistribution of the gas-phase particles. Two contrasting models with and without the surface kinetics as well as the Spearman rank correlation coefficients are used to quantify the effect of the key species (H, CH, CH2) on the CO generation. Advancing the common knowledge that Pt catalyst can influence the plasma chemistry directly by changing the surface loss/production of particles, this study reveals that the catalyst can also affect the spatial distributions of active species, thereby influencing the plasma chemistry in an indirect way. This result goes beyond the existing state-of-the-art which commonly relies on over-simplified 0D models which cannot resolve the spatial distribution. Further analysis indicates that the species spatial redistribution is driven by the dynamic catalyst surface adsorption-desorption processes. This work enables the previously elusive account of active species redistribution and may open new opportunities for plasma-catalytic sustainable chemical processes.
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Several important advancements in the integration of energy storage into microgrids have fueled a lot of research and development over the last ten years to achieve the global decarbonization goal by 2050. The effective integration of the energy storage system in the microgrid is essential to ensure a safe, reliable, and resilient operation. Nevertheless, the utilization of energy storage in microgrids brings several issues, including poor power quality and intermittence characteristics. To address these concerns, appropriate energy storage controllers and optimization schemes are required to manage and optimize the power efficiently and securely. Although various research works have been performed and published over the years, the analytical assessment of energy storage controllers and optimization schemes integration into microgrids has not been carried out yet. Thus, this paper presents a comprehensive analytical evaluation of energy storage controllers and optimization schemes in Microgrid by recognizing and evaluating the highly influential 110 manuscripts using the Scopus database within the year 2010-2021. The analytical analysis emphasizes the current research trends, keyword evaluation, research classification, country analysis, authorship, and research collaboration. The paper also discusses and compares 24 controllers and 21 optimization schemes in the highly cited 110 manuscripts. Besides, critical discussion and assessment are conducted over 15 emerging subject areas. The constructive analysis identifies the existing limitations and research gaps in the selected 110 papers. By analyzing the existing issues, this manuscript provides several guidelines and suggestions for future improvement. This survey will help to deepen the development concepts to achieve improved power quality, economic prosperity, energy savings, and increased efficiency towards sustainable operation and management in the microgrid.
Chapter
This chapter reviews the technical requirements of grid-connected photovoltaic (PV) power plants to increase their competitiveness and efficiently integrate into the grid to satisfy future demand requirements and grid management challenges, focusing on Spain as a case study. The integration of distributed resources into the electric network, in particular PV energy, requires an accurate control of the system. The integration of PV energy has resulted in significant changes to the regulatory framework to ensure proper integration of distributed generation units in the grid. In this study, the requirements of the system operator for the management and smart control are first analyzed, and then the technical specifications established by the network operator in reference to the components of the facility are evaluated. This analysis identifies the shortcomings of the current legislation and concludes with a summary of the main technical recommendations and future regulatory challenges that need to be undertaken in the future. It is presented as a reference case that can be adapted worldwide.
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The EU aims for complete decarbonisation. Therefore, renewable generation must be massively expanded, and the energy and exergy efficiency of the entire system must be significantly increased. To increase exergy efficiency, a holistic consideration of the energy system is necessary. This work analyses the optimal technology mix to maximise exergy efficiency in a fully decarbonised energy system. An exergy-based optimisation model is presented and analysed. It considers both, the energy supply system and the final energy application. The optimization is using Austria as a case study with targeted renewable generation capacities of 2030. The results show, that despite this massive expansion and the maximum exergy efficiency, about half of the primary energy still be imported. Overall exergy efficiency can be raised from today’s 34% (Sejkora et al. 2020) to 56%. The major increase in exergy efficiency is achieved in the areas of heat supply (via complete excess heat utilisation and heat pumps) and transport (via electric and fuel cell drives). The investigated exergy optimisation results in an increase of the final electrical energy demand by 44% compared to the current situation. This increase leads to mainly positive residual loads, despite a significant expansion of renewable generation. Negative residual loads are used to provide heat and hydrogen.
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Long distance transmission within continents has been shown to be one of the most effective variation management strategies to reduce the cost of renewable energy systems. In this paper, we test whether the system cost further decreases when transmission is extended to intercontinental connections. We analyze a Eurasian interconnection between China, Mid-Asia and Europe, using a capacity expansion model with hourly time resolution. Our modelling results suggestthat a supergrid option decreases total system cost by a maximum of 5%, compared to continental grid integration. The maximum cost reductionis achieved when (i) the generation is constrained to be made up almost entirely by renewables, (ii) the land available for VRE farms is relatively limited and the demand is relatively high and (iii) the cost for solar PV and storage is high. This is explained by that a super grid allows for harnessing of remote wind-, solar- and hydro resources demand centers. As for low-cost storage, it represents a competing variation management option, and may substitute part of the role of the supergrid, which is to manage variations through long-distance trade. We conclude that the benefits of a supergrid from a techno-economic perspective are in most cases negligible, or modest at best.
Article
This research evaluates the South American Electric Energy System and its features related to the inclusion of renewable energies into the transition processes to leave fossil fuel-based energy systems behind. Analysis of the Ecuadorian case is a novel approach because in the first instance its matrix was based on the use of fossil fuels, with dire consequences of pollution, especially in the Amazon. Interest is growing in terms of economic, legal and social renewal, leaving behind the rapidly depleting oil systems which have been a polluting source. This research presents a novel analysis of the state of the Ecuadorian electricity system and after a flexible analysis in Energyplan, proposes the feasible renewable energy sources and their shares to guarantee the new demand in 2050 and an Ecuadorian 100% renewable electricity generation system, having a positive impact on the monetary, increasing production levels and improving the quality of life of its citizens. Installed power by 2050 is expected to be 20 GW and will require an annual production of 72.24 TWh. Hydro (6.02 GW), solar PV (5.7 GW) and wind (5.61 GW) will have the most impact on the Ecuadorian energy matrix. The average production cost of 1 MWh will be approximately 18 US cents.
Article
In the current academic fields of zero-energy community, there is still limited knowledge on the integration of a coastal community with hybrid ocean-related energy systems. This study investigates the feasibility of a coastal community to reach zero-energy with the support of a hybrid offshore wind and tidal stream energy generation system, as well as an ocean and solar thermal energy supported district cooling and heating system. TRNSYS simulation was performed to demonstrate a proposed community that comprises 8 high-rise residential buildings and 2 mid-rise office buildings with a 9.86 MW community peak power demand. This study considered 21 hybrid renewable energy cases and investigated their performance in 2 scenarios – scenario 1 without battery and scenario 2 with battery. The system performance is assessed from the technical, economic, and emission perspectives by analysing the system load matching, net present value, discounted payback period, and equivalent CO2 emission. In scenario 1, the hybrid renewable energy case 5 with 6 offshore wind turbines (12 MW) and 117 tidal stream converters (29.25 MW) has the best annual load matching (56.68% “onsite energy matching” and 57.84% “onsite energy fraction”) mainly due to their complementary generation pattern during specific periods. In scenario 2, the community-scale electricity storage significantly increases the system technical performance by raising the “onsite energy matching” and “onsite energy fraction” of case 5 to 75.25% and 74.75%, respectively. In addition, the techno-economic analysis reveals the market competitiveness of the 21 RE cases and demonstrates the significant economic impact of the FiT policy. The comparison between scenario 1 and scenario 2 indicates that the community-scale battery diminishes the operation-cycle profits but reduces the equivalent CO2 emission. Furthermore, with the current price settings, tidal stream energy generation is considered less profitable than offshore wind energy generation. This study could provide important insights into the development of coastal zero-energy communities with hybrid offshore wind and tidal stream energy generation at other locations worldwide, especially densely populated coastal cities.
Article
When deciding on a country’s future energy policy, it is essential to accurately estimate the future generation mix and technology costs, as well as future generation site locations in electricity power grids. This estimate needs to allow for changing levels of demand and increasing levels of renewable energy supply, with both having high fluctuations geographically and temporally. This objective leads to high-dimensional mathematical models with high computational complexity that cannot be solved analytically. Various simplifications and heuristics are proposed globally, however, these need to be anchored in terms of an indication of their likely performance. We offer a novel parallel investigation of a near-optimal and heuristic optimisation approach on a country scale. The Linear Programming (LP) optimisation problem finds the global minimum for the chosen set of input variables, this however comes at the cost of limitations regarding model size due to complexity. The alternative heuristic model limits connectivity of model parameters but rather than aggregating variables over space or time, it maintains a high resolution to allow for more granular estimates. We compare the quality and performance of a heuristic and LP optimisation method, using two configurations for the example of Australia and find relevant solutions for both. The solution space requires substantial simplification for the LP to be solvable and leads to overly optimistic capacity factors, installed capacity and cost, due to spatial aggregation. The heuristic approach has a significant performance advantage requiring only 3% of the near-optimal runtime and a fraction of calculation iterations.
Article
China, the largest global CO2 emitter, recently announced ambitious targets for carbon neutrality by 2060. Its technical and economic feasibility is unclear given severe renewable integration barriers. Here, we developed a cross-sector, high-resolution assessment model to quantify optimal energy structures on provincial bases for different years. Hourly power system simulations for all provinces for a full year are incorporated on the basis of comprehensive grid data to quantify the renewable balancing costs. Results indicate that the conventional strategy of employing local wind, solar, and storage to realize 80% renewable penetration by 2050 would incur a formidable decarbonization cost of $27/ton despite lower levelized costs for renewables. Coordinated deployment of renewables, ultra-high-voltage transmissions, storages, Power-to-gas and slow-charging electric vehicles can reduce this carbon abatement cost to as low as $−25/ton. Were remaining emissions removed by carbon capture and sequestration technologies, achieving carbon neutrality could be not only feasible but also cost-competitive post 2050.
Chapter
Freshwater production costs generally depend on site-specific conditions such as local energy costs, level of freshwater quality required, and concentration of constituents in feed water. The latter is a particularly important factor in desalination system design and cost. A competitive cost for freshwater production using renewable energy–driven seawater desalination systems can be attained in the case of optimum designs and proper selection and utilization of renewable energy sources available in a region, so as to maximize the synergy between diverse resources. With efficiency improvements and other advances in renewable energy technologies, the costs associated with such systems have decreased notably in recent years. In this chapter, an overview of desalination economics is provided. Then an economic study of freshwater production is presented based on a technoeconomic analysis of desalination systems and renewable energy technologies. From the technoeconomic analysis, the cost of water produced from desalination facilities and the cost of energy from renewable energy technologies are predicted for systems, today and in the future. Next, exergy concepts are related to economic principles through exergoeconomic analysis, and suggestions for reducing the overall costs of freshwater and electricity are developed. Through exergoeconomic analyses of renewable energy–driven desalination systems, the proper allocation of economic resources can be determined to optimize the design and operation of such systems. Finally, an exergo-environmental analysis using life cycle assessment is presented to evaluate the environmental impact of desalination systems using renewable and nonrenewable energy.
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Buildings are one of the most important energy consumers worldwide and heating requirements are usually achieved using fossil fuels. This situation poses a risk to achieving the objectives for emissions reduction in existing buildings and electrification, based on heat pumps. It is one of the most feasible solutions to achieve emissions reduction objectives. Current research analyzes the potential for decarbonization of heat pumps and uses the Spanish scenario as a novel case study, where 8.5% of carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere came from the residential sector, with 66% of the energy consumption associated with cooling and heating. Using EnergyPlan the potential of decarbonization using heat pumps or heating systems in existing buildings and installing this technology in new buildings is analyzed. Results show a reduction of 8.43% in total emissions and prove that the proposed methodology can be extended worldwide as a solution to reduce emissions and improve energy efficiency in existent heating systems in buildings. Moreover, the integration of electrical climatization systems allows increasing the renewable electricity share in the grid or electrical vehicles integration, among others.
Article
Power purchase agreements govern significant fraction of the renewable electricity transactions from independent projects. As the costs of wind, solar and storage have plummeted in recent years and accelerated the growth renewables towards decarbonization, the nature of wind and solar-based power purchase agreements is also evolving from traditional energy contract to power contract that supplies on-demand renewable electricity. The work presents a linear optimization model to examine how the optimal design and tariff will change as renewable energy contracts begin supplying firm renewable electricity for few hours a day to 24 × 7. The findings indicated that oversizing and curtailing under energy contracts remained a cheaper alternative to storage for attaining highly renewable (up to 80% as per the present study). Hybrid systems produced the cheapest electricity followed by wind and solar, respectively. Further, solar-only systems required substantial storage for producing during peak-hours due to the inherent daytime generation limitation, while overbuilding was cheaper for wind-dominated systems to achieve high levels of penetration. The research supports developing project-level contracts for purchasing firm renewable energy and also highlights the importance of integrating micro-models with the existing dispatch and capacity expansion models deployed large-scale to examine the generation-mix and cost implications of energy transition.
Technical Report
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This document seeks to contribute to society and its decision-makers with the best available scientific evidence on Chile’s Renewable Energy (RE) Export Potential and the opportunities and challenges that such potential opens for Chile’s commitment to carbon neutrality. It also aims to provide a useful input for the dialogues that the country will hold in the framework of COP26. A collaborative and interdisciplinary process was developed for this goal, involving 71 researchers and specialists. The work includes 299 references of scientific literature that support the different dimensions involved in the challenge of exporting renewable energy from Chile. It is confirmed that Chile has a considerable renewable energy potential that can be the basis for various exports. The different energy export options identified are renewable electricity using electrical transmission grids; hydrogen and derivatives (synthetic fuels, fertilizers, other chemical products) through pipelines or maritime transport; local production or manufacturing of products and services fed with RE; and knowledge and R&D capabilities. We conclude that the whole process of renewable energy exports should be framed within the Chilean policy for climate change and the current local context. Moreover, such a process must be consistent with the social and environmental principles set out in Chile’s NDCs, in the future Framework Law for Climate Change, in its Long-Term Climate Strategy, and in the mitigation and adaptation plans of the energy sector. For this purpose, recommendations were developed in the following areas: Art. 6 of the Paris Agreement, climate observatory, legitimacy and social licence, just climate action principle, energy literacy, new challenges for science and technology, partnerships, and improvements of the current legislation.
Article
This study analyzes 2050–2051 grid stability in the 50 U S. states and District of Columbia after their all-sector (electricity, transportation, buildings, industry) energy is transitioned to 100% clean, renewable Wind-Water-Solar (WWS) electricity and heat plus storage and demand response (thus to zero air pollution and carbon). Stability is analyzed in five regions; six isolated states (Texas, California, Florida, New York, Alaska, Hawaii); Texas interconnected with the Midwest, and the contiguous U.S. No blackouts occur, including during summer in California or winter in Texas. No batteries with over 4-h storage are needed. Concatenating 4-h batteries provides long-duration storage. Whereas transitioning more than doubles electricity use, it reduces total end-use energy demand by ∼57% versus business-as-usual (BAU), contributing to the 63 (43–79)% and 86 (77–90)% lower annual private and social (private + health + climate) energy costs, respectively, than BAU. Costs per unit energy in California, New York, and Texas are 11%, 21%, and 27% lower, respectively, and in Florida are 1.5% higher, when these states are interconnected regionally than islanded. Transitioning may create ∼4.7 million more permanent jobs than lost and requires only ∼0.29% and 0.55% of new U.S. land for footprint and spacing, respectively, less than the 1.3% occupied by the fossil industry today.
Article
Low-cost solar photovoltaics and wind offer a reliable and affordable pathway to deep decarbonization of energy, which accounts for three quarters of global emissions. However, large-scale deployment of solar photovoltaics and wind requires space and may be challenging for countries with dense population and high per capita energy consumption. This study investigates the future role of renewable energy in Japan as a case study. A 40-year hourly energy balance model is presented of a hypothetical 100% renewable Japanese electricity system using representative demand data and historical meteorological data. Pumped hydro energy storage, high voltage interconnection and dispatchable capacity (existing hydro and biomass and hydrogen energy produced from curtailed electricity) are included to balance variable generation and demand. Differential evolution is used to find the least-cost solution under various constraints. This study shows that Japan has 14 times more solar and offshore wind resources than needed to supply 100% renewable electricity and vast capacity for off-river pumped hydro energy storage. Assuming significant cost reductions of solar photovoltaics and offshore wind towards global norms in the coming decades driven by large-scale deployment locally and global convergence of renewable generation costs, the levelized cost of electricity is found to be US$86/Megawatt-hour for a solar-dominated system, and US$110/Megawatt-hour for a wind-dominated system. These costs can be compared with 2020 average system prices on the spot market in Japan of US$102/Megawatt-hour. Cost of balancing 100% renewable electricity in Japan ranges between US$20–27/Megawatt-hour for a range of scenarios. In summary, Japan can be self-sufficient for electricity supply at competitive costs, provided that the barriers to the mass deployment of solar photovoltaics and offshore wind in Japan are overcome.
Article
Hydrogen presents an opportunity for Africa to not only decarbonise its own energy use and enable clean energy access for all, but also to export renewable energy. This paper developed a framework for assessing renewable resources for hydrogen production and provides a new critical analysis as to how and what role hydrogen can play in the complex African energy landscape. The regional solar, wind, CSP, and bio hydrogen potential ranges from 366 to 1311 Gt/year, 162 to 1782 Gt/year, 463 to 2738 Gt/year, and 0.03 to 0.06 Gt/year respectively. The water availability and sensitivity results showed that the water shortages in some countries can be abated by importing water from regions with high renewable water resources. A techno-economic comparative analysis indicated that a high voltage direct current (HVDC) system presents the most cost-effective transportation system with overall costs per kg hydrogen of 0.038 $/kg, followed by water pipeline with 0.084 $/kg, seawater desalination 0.1 $/kg, liquified hydrogen tank truck 0.12 $/kg, compressed hydrogen pipeline 0.16 $/kg, liquefied ammonia pipeline 0.38 $/kg, liquefied ammonia tank truck 0.60 $/kg, and compressed hydrogen tank truck with 0.77 $/kg. The results quantified the significance of economies of scale due to cost effectiveness of systems such as compressed hydrogen pipeline and liquefied hydrogen tank truck systems when hydrogen production is scaled up. Decentralization is favorable under some constraints, e.g., compressed hydrogen and liquefied ammonia tank truck systems will be more cost effective below 800 km and 1400 km due to lower investment and operation costs.
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This paper outlines how an existing energy system can be transformed into a 100% renewable energy system. The transition is divided into a number of key stages which reflect key radical technological changes on the supply side of the energy system. Ireland is used as a case study,but in reality this reflects many typical energy systems today which use power plants for electricity, individual boilers for heat, and oil for transport. The seven stages analysed are 1) reference, 2) introduction of district heating, 3) installation of small and large-scale heat pumps,4) reducing grid regulation requirements, 5) adding flexible electricity demands and electric vehicles, 6) producing synthetic methanol/DME for transport, and finally 7) using synthetic gas to replace the remaining fossil fuels. For each stage, the technical and economic performance of the energy system is calculated. The results indicate that a 100% renewable energy system can provide the same end-user energy demands as today’s energy system and at the same price. Electricity will be the backbone of the energy system, but the flexibility in today’s electricity sector will be transferred from the supply side of the demand side in the future. Similarly, due to changes in the type of spending required in a 100% renewable energy system, this scenario will result in the creation of 100,000 additional jobs in Ireland compared to an energy system like today’s. These results are significant since they indicate that the transition to a 100% renewable energy system can begin today, without increasing the cost of energy in the short- or long-term, if the costs currently forecasted for 2050 become a reality.
Conference Paper
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Photovoltaic installations are usually guaranteed to operate for 25 to 30 years, with a warranty of 80% of initial performance remaining after this time. However, in order to determine the profitability of a project, it is important to estimate the performance of the photovoltaic modules over their lifetime, depending on their environment. In this study, a first version of an ageing model for photovoltaic systems is considered, taking into account the influence of the environmental stress factors, which are the temperature, the relative humidity, and the exposure to UV radiation. Another stress factor also needs to be taken into account: the module's voltage potential versus ground (Potential Induced Degradation). The impact of cell cracks on the modules is also included in the model, their impact over the years depending on the temperature, but mainly to thermal cycles, due to the differences in temperature between day and night (thermal dilatation). Accelerated Damp Heat tests, thermal cycling tests, PID tests and UV tests are interpreted and used for calibrating the model, in addition to other degradation studies taken from relevant literature. A simple model is first built for the corrosion, with the temperature and humidity as stress factors, considering only the maximum power degradation. A more advanced model is then built, considering the degradation of the two-diode model parameters. A model has been built for each degradation, that is to say corrosion (temperature and humidity), AR coating and EVA discoloration (UV exposure), PID causes (temperature, humidity and voltage), and cell cracks (Thermal cycling). First simulations have been done, with weather data from the south of France (Mediterranean climate), Miami (hot and humid), and Dubai (hot and dry) showing that the power output after 30 years is still above the warranty limit of 80%.
Conference Paper
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PV and wind power are the major renewable power technologies in most regions on earth. Depending on the interaction of solar and wind resources, PV and wind power industry will become competitors or allies. Time resolved geospatial data of global horizontal irradiation and wind speeds are used to simulate the power feed-in of PV and wind power plants assumed to be installed on an equally rated power basis in every region of a 1°x1° mesh of latitude and longitude between 65°N and 65°S. An overlap of PV and wind power full load hours is defined as measure for the complementarity of both technologies and identified as ranging between 5% and 25% of total PV and wind power feed-in. Critical overlap full load hours are introduced as a measure for energy losses that would appear if the grid was dimensioned only for one power plant of PV or wind. In result, they do not exceed 9% of total feed-in but are mainly around 3% - 4%. Thus the two major renewable power technologies must be characterized by complementing each other.
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The increasing amount of power generation from weather-dependent renewable sources in Germany is projected to lead to a considerable number of hours in which power generation exceeds power demand. One possibility to take advantage of this power surplus is through the Power-to-Heat technology. As combined heat and power (CHP)-plants can be upgraded relatively easily with a Power-to-Heat facility, a huge potential can be developed in German district heating grids which are mainly served by CHP-plants. In this paper the potential of the Power-to-Heat technology in district heating grids in Germany is evaluated for the years 2015 to 2030 under different assumptions.
Thesis
As electricity generation based on volatile renewable resources is subject to fluctuations, data with high temporal and spatial resolution on their availability is indispensable for integrating large shares of renewable capacities into energy infrastructures. The scope of the present doctoral thesis is to enhance the existing energy modelling environment REMix in terms of (i.) extending the geographic coverage of the potential assessment tool REMix-EnDaT from a European to a global scale, (ii.) adding a new plant siting optimization module REMix-PlaSMo, capable of assessing siting effects of renewable power plants on the portfolio output and (iii.) adding a new alternating current power transmission model between 30 European countries and CSP electricity imports from power plants located in North Africa and the Middle East via high voltage direct current links into the module REMix-OptiMo. With respect to the global potential assessment tool, a thorough investigation is carried out creating an hourly global inventory of the theoretical potentials of the major renewable resources solar irradiance, wind speed and river discharge at a spatial resolution of 0.45°x0.45°. A detailed global land use analysis determines eligible sites for the installation of renewable power plants. Detailed power plant models for PV, CSP, wind and hydro power allow for the assessment of power output, cost per kWh and respective full load hours taking into account the theoretical potentials, technological as well as economic data. The so-obtined tool REMix-EnDaT can be used as follows: First, as an assessment tool for arbitrary geographic locations, countries or world regions, deriving either site-specific or aggregated installable capacities, cost as well as full load hour potentials. Second, as a tool providing input data such as installable capacities and hourly renewable electricity generation for further assessments using the modules REMix-PlasMo and OptiMo. The plant siting tool REMix-PlaSMo yields results as to where the volatile power technologies photovoltaics and wind are to be located within a country in order to gain distinct effects on their aggregated power output. Three different modes are implemented: (a.) Optimized plant siting in order to obtain the cheapest generation cost, (b.) a minimization of the photovoltaic and wind portfolio output variance and (c.) a minimization of the residual load variance. The third fundamental addition to the REMix model is the amendment of the module REMix-OptiMo with a new power transmission model based on the DC load flow approximation. Moreover, electricity imports originating from concentrating solar power plants located in North Africa and the Middle East are now feasible. All of the new capabilities and extensions of REMix are employed in three case studies: In case study 1, using the module REMix-EnDaT, a global potential assessment is carried out for 10 OECD world regions, deriving installable capacities, cost and full load hours for PV, CSP, wind and hydro power. According to the latter, photovoltaics will represent the cheapest technology in 2050, an average of 1634 full load hours could lead to an electricity generation potential of some 5500 PWh. Although CSP also taps solar irradiance, restrictions in terms of suitable sites for erecting power plants are more severe. For that reason, the maximum potential amounts to some 1500 PWh. However, thermal energy storage can be used, which, according to this assessment, could lead to 5400 hours of full load operation. Onshore wind power could tap a potential of 717 PWh by 2050 with an average of 2200 full load hours while offshore, wind power plants could achieve a total power generation of 224 PWh with an average of 3000 full load hours. The electricity generation potential of hydro power exceeds 3 PWh, 4600 full load hours of operation are reached on average. In case study 2, using the module REMix-PlaSMo, an assessment for Morocco is carried out as to determine limits of volatile power generation in portfolios approaching full supply based on renewable power. The volatile generation technologies are strategically sited at specific locations to take advantage of available resources conditions. It could be shown that the cost optimal share of volatile power generation without considering storage or transmission grid extensions is one third. Moreover, the average power generation cost using a portfolio consisting of PV, CSP, wind and hydro power can be stabilized at about 10 €ct/kWh by the year 2050. In case study 3, using the module REMix-OptiMo, a validation of a TRANS-CSP scenario based upon high shares of renewable power generation is carried out. The optimization is conducted on an hourly basis using a least cost approach, thereby investigating if and how demand is met during each hour of the investigated year. It could be shown, that the assumed load can safely be met in all countries for each hour using the scenario's power plant portfolio. Furthermore, it was proven that dispatchable renewable power generation, in particular CSP imports to Europe, have a system stabilizing effect. Using the suggested concept, the utilization of the transfer capacities between countries would decrease until 2050.
Chapter
Likelihood of a 100% Renewable World Global Network or Local Autonomy? Timeline for a 100% Renewable World
Chapter
Basic Energy Terms Global Energy Situation Energy Sectors Challenges for Fossil Fuels Problems with Nuclear Energy
Article
A clear consensus exists in German society that renewable energy resources have to play a dominant role in the future German energy supply system. However, many questions are still under discussion; for instance the relevance of the different technologies such as photovoltaic systems and wind energy converters installed offshore in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea. Concerns also exist about the cost of a future energy system mainly based on renewable energy. In the work presented here we tried to answer some of those questions. Guiding questions for this study were: (1) is it possible to meet the German energy demand with 100% renewable energy, considering the available technical potential of the main renewable energy resources? (2) what is the overall annual cost of such an energy system once it has been implemented? (3) what is the best combination of renewable energy converters, storage units, energy converters and energy-saving measures? In order to answer these questions, we carried out many simulation calculations using REMod-D, a model we developed for this purpose. This model is described in Part I of this publication. To date this model covers only part of the energy system, namely the electricity and heat sectors, which correspond to about 62% of Germany's current energy demand. The main findings of our work indicate that it is possible to meet the total electricity and heat demand (space heating, hot water) of the entire building sector with 100% renewable energy within the given technical limits. This is based on the assumption that the heat demand of the building sector is significantly reduced by at least 60% or more compared to today's demand. Another major result of our analysis shows that - once the transformation of the energy system has been completed - supplying electricity and heat only from renewables is no more expensive than the existing energy supply.
Article
Further development of the North-East Asian energy system is at a crossroads due to severe limitations of the current conventional energy based system. For North-East Asia it is proposed that the excellent solar and wind resources of the Gobi desert could enable the transformation towards a 100% renewable energy system. An hourly resolved model describes an energy system for North-East Asia, subdivided into 14 regions interconnected by high voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission grids. Simulations are made for highly centralized, decentralized and countrywide grids scenarios. The results for total system levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) are 0.065 and 0.081 €/(kW&h) for the centralized and decentralized approaches for 2030 assumptions. The presented results for 100% renewable resources-based energy systems are lower in LCOE by about 30–40% than recent findings in Europe for conventional alternatives. This research clearly indicates that a 100% renewable resources based energy system is THE real policy option.
Article
The electricity consumption in the ASEAN (Association of East Asian Nations) region is one of the fastest growing in the world and will lead to a dramatic increase in greenhouse gas emissions in the next decades. A decarbonization of the region's electricity supply is thus a very important measure when taking action on global climate change. This paper defines cost-optimal pathways towards a sustainable power system in the region by employing linear optimization. The proposed model simultaneously optimizes the required capacities and the hourly operation of generation, transmission, and storage. The obtained results show that all different kinds of renewable sources will have to be utilized, while none of them should have a share of more than one third. The findings give reason for setting up an ASEAN power grid, as it enables the transportation of electricity from the best sites to load centers and leads to a balancing of the fluctuations from wind and solar generation. We suggest fostering a diversified extension of renewables and to elaborate on political and technical solutions that enable the build up an transnational supergrid.
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The autonomous polygeneration microgrid topology has been developed in order to cover holistically needs in a remote area such as electrical energy, space heating and cooling, potable water through desalination and hydrogen as fuel for transportation. The existence of an advanced energy management system is essential for the operation of an autonomous polygeneration microgrid. So far, energy management systems based on a centralized management and control have been developed for the autonomous polygeneration microgrid topology based on computational intelligence approaches. A decentralized management and control energy management system can have important benefits, when taking into consideration the autonomous character of these microgrids. This paper presents the design and investigation of a decentralized energy management system for the autonomous polygeneration microgrid topology. The decentralized energy management system gives the possibility to control each unit of the microgrid independently. The most important advantage of using a decentralized architecture is that the managed microgrid has much higher chances of partial operation in cases when malfunctions occur at different parts of it, instead of a complete system breakdown. The designed system was based on a multi-agent system and employed Fuzzy Cognitive Maps for its implementation. It was then compared through a case study with an existing centralized energy management system. The technical performance of the decentralized solution performance is on par with the existing centralized one, presenting improvements in financial and operational terms for the implementation and operation of an autonomous polygeneration microgrid.
Article
In the transition towards a 100% renewable energy system, energy savings are essential. The possibility of energy savings through conservation or efficiency increases can be identified in, for instance, the heating and electricity sectors, in industry, and in transport. Several studies point to various optimal levels of savings in the different sectors of the energy system. However, these studies do not investigate the idea of energy savings being system dependent. This paper argues that such system dependency is critical to understand, as it does not make sense to analyse an energy saving without taking into account the actual benefit of the saving in relation to the energy system. The study therefore identifies a need to understand how saving methods may interact with each other and the system in which they are conducted. By using energy system analysis to do hourly simulation of the current Danish energy system, the combination of reductions in heat and electricity demands is analysed within the Danish district heating sector to show the benefits of coordinating savings in the electricity and district heating sectors.
Article
The State of Hawaii's Clean Energy policies call for 40% of the state's electricity to be supplied by renewable sources by 2030. A recent study focusing on the island of Oahu showed that meeting large amounts of the island's electricity needs with wind and solar introduced significant operational challenges, especially when renewable generation varies from forecasts. This paper focuses on the potential of demand response in balancing supply and demand on an hourly basis. Using the WILMAR model, various levels and prices of demand response were simulated. Results indicate that demand response has the potential to smooth overall power system operation, with production cost savings arising from both improved thermal power plant operations and increased wind production. Demand response program design and cost structure is then discussed drawing from industry experience in direct load control programs.
Conference Paper
Case studies for very large scale PV (VLS-PV) in desert areas, by the IEA PVPS Task8 study, showed that the Gobi desert area of Mongolia is one of the most promising candidate sites for VLS-PV. It is expected that the demonstration phase will be started in the near-term, and it is intended that a concrete sustainable development scheme would be designed and that the capacity of the total PV system, VLS-PV, will reach GW-scale. Further, thinking about a concept of 'Renewable Energy Super Grid' in North-East Asia, the VLS-PV systems should play important roles.
Conference Paper
Grid-parity is a very important milestone for further photovoltaic (PV) diffusion. An updated grid-parity model is presented, which is based on levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) coupled with the experience curve approach. Relevant assumptions for the model are given and its key driving forces are discussed in detail. Results of the analysis are shown for 215 countries/ islands and a total of 645 market segments all over the world. High PV industry growth rates have enabled a fast reduction of LCOE. Depletion of fossil fuel resources and climate change mitigation forces societies to internalize these effects and pave the way for sustainable energy technologies. First grid-parity events have already occurred. The 2010s are characterized by ongoing grid-parity events throughout the most regions in the world, reaching an addressable market of up to 96% of total global electricity market till 2030. In consequence, new political frameworks for maximizing social benefits will be required. In parallel, PV industry tackle its next milestone, fuel-parity. In conclusion, PV is on the pathway to become a highly competitive energy technology.
Article
This study demonstrates – based on a dynamical simulation of a global, decentralized 100% renewable electricity supply scenario – that a global climate-neutral electricity supply based on the volatile energy sources photovoltaics (PV), wind energy (onshore) and concentrated solar power (CSP) is feasible at decent cost. A central ingredient of this study is a sophisticated model for the hourly electric load demand in >160 countries. To guarantee matching of load demand in each hour, the volatile primary energy sources are complemented by three electricity storage options: batteries, high-temperature thermal energy storage coupled with steam turbine, and renewable power methane (generated via the Power to Gas process) which is reconverted to electricity in gas turbines. The study determines – on a global grid with 1°x1° resolution – the required power plant and storage capacities as well as the hourly dispatch for a 100% renewable electricity supply under the constraint of minimized total system cost (LCOE). Aggregating the results on a national level results in an levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) range of 80-200 EUR/MWh (on a projected cost basis for the year 2020) in this very decentralized approach. As a global average, 142 EUR/MWh are found. Due to the restricted number of technologies considered here, this represents an upper limit for the electricity cost in a fully renewable electricity supply.
Article
The start of the period of large-scale human effects on this planet (the Anthropocene) is debated. The industrial view holds that most significant impacts have occurred since the early industrial era (˜1850), whereas the early-anthropogenic view recognizes large impacts thousands of years earlier. This review focuses on three indices of global-scale human influence: forest clearance (and related land use), emissions of greenhouse gases (CO2 and CH4), and effects on global temperature. Because reliable, systematic land-use surveys are rare prior to 1950, most reconstructions for early-industrial centuries and prior millennia are hind casts that assume humans have used roughly the same amount of land per person for 7,000 years. But this assumption is incorrect. Historical data and new archeological databases reveal much greater per-capita land use in preindustrial than in recent centuries. This early forest clearance caused much greater preindustrial greenhouse-gas emissions and global temperature changes than those proposed within the industrial paradigm.
Article
The book focuses on solar radiation characteristics, solar radiation available for practical applications, heat transfer, radiation characteristics of opaque materials, theory of flat-plate collectors, and concentrating collectors. Also discussed are solar process economics, solar water heating, solar heating system design, solar cooling, conversion to mechanical energy, evaporative processes, and selfgradient ponds.
Article
We present a geographical assessment of the performance of crystalline silicon photovoltaic (PV) modules over Europe. We have developed a method that is based on a material specific analytical expression of the PV conversion efficiency, relative to nominal efficiency, as a function of module temperature and irradiance. This method is combined with a climate database that includes average daytime temperature and irradiance profiles. It is found that the geographical variation in ambient temperature and yearly irradiation causes a decrease in overall yearly PV performance from 3 to 13% relative to the performance under Standard Test Conditions, with the highest decrease found in the Mediterranean region. Based on the above results we developed a simplified linear expression of the relative PV module efficiency that is a simple function of yearly total irradiation and yearly average daytime temperature. The coefficients to the linear expression are found by fitting to the map resulting from the above-mentioned analytical approach. The prediction of total yearly PV output from this linear fit deviates less than 0·5% from the more detailed calculation, thus providing a faster and more simplified alternative to the yield estimate, in the case when only limited climate data are available. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Article
In this paper, we argue that Asia's unique geography, abundant low-emission energy resources, rapid economic growth, and rising energy demands merit consideration of a Pan-Asian Energy Infrastructure. In our study, we focus on development of wind and solar resources in Australia, China, Mongolia, and Vietnam as the potential foundation for an electricity grid stretching from China to Australia. Hourly climate data for a full year are used to estimate renewable energy generation, electricity demand, generation capacity are projected forward to the year 2025, and economic dispatch in an international market is simulated to demonstrate cost benefits. Intermittency, connectivity, future dispatch orders, storage, line losses, and engineering and financial issues are all addressed.
Article
Each stage in the life cycle of coal-extraction, transport, processing, and combustion-generates a waste stream and carries multiple hazards for health and the environment. These costs are external to the coal industry and are thus often considered "externalities." We estimate that the life cycle effects of coal and the waste stream generated are costing the U.S. public a third to over one-half of a trillion dollars annually. Many of these so-called externalities are, moreover, cumulative. Accounting for the damages conservatively doubles to triples the price of electricity from coal per kWh generated, making wind, solar, and other forms of nonfossil fuel power generation, along with investments in efficiency and electricity conservation methods, economically competitive. We focus on Appalachia, though coal is mined in other regions of the United States and is burned throughout the world.
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