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Climate Change and Conflict in Nigeria : A Theoretical and Empirical Examination of the Worsening Incidence of Conflict between Fulani Herdsmen and Farmers in
... Nigeria is one of the nations of the world that has encountered lingering bouts of social conflict particularly the one that stems from a shortage of appropriate land for agri-business.The waramong herders and ranchers goes back to earliest written records, such as that of Cain killing Abel, Chinese emperors delineating Chinese territory from marauding hordes by building the Great Wall. Land conflict in Nigeria is however spectacular and complex as it is usually exacerbated by ethnoreligious divergence andextreme poverty, accompaniedbya gross lack of social amenities (Odoh and Chilaka, 2012). Nigeria is distributed into six zones geopolitically with a current estimated populace of more than 190 (CIA, 2012;NBS, 2018).This plurality has been a great threat to peaceful coexistence in sustainably utilizing the country's limited land resources; hence making conflict, forced migration and displacement inevitable.Reports has it about Climate change in Nigeria that there has been seeing a sizable modification in precipitation, temperature, sea level rise and storm since the only remaining century (Onyia, 2015). ...
... Climate change increases natural disasters, drought, desertification, a rise in sea level, shortage of fresh water and increased resource scarcity (Odoh and Chilaka, 2012). These situations would, in turn, result in loss of means of subsistence, and the later causing displacement of people, migration in search of greener pasture, herdsmen migration and increased risks of armed conflict ( figure 3). ...
... Especially, during planting season when the Fulani herdsmen and their cattle match the seed planted thus preventing them from germinating. This has made it a yearly battle between the Fulani pastoralists and the Sokoto farmers (Odoh and Chilaka, 2012 8 two-thirds of the county's land area is majorly savannah as against the southern region which is a tropical rainforest and mangrove/swamp. The agricultural sector provides the highest employment; employing 70% of the northerners and it is the second-largest contribution to GDP after crude oil. ...
In northern Nigeria, drought and desertification have grossly affected water available and land carrying capacity for both pastureland and farmlands. Hence, the northerners, particularly, the youthinevitably migrate to the south for greener pasture for themselves and the animals. Most of these youths are uneducated and not skilled to secure employment, they, therefore, become an instrument in the hands of religious bigotry. This climatic change can also result in a rise in sea level, thereby increasing the flood events especially, in Nigeria’s lowlands. These changes have not only caused fierce conflicts buthave additionally brought about the death of thousands and rendered many homeless. The Nigeria Middle Belt has been the region most impacted by violent death resulting from land resource scarcity. The conflict has ensued between contrasting groups when essential resources become scarcely limited. Northern Nigeria accounts for 68% of every fiercedeath due to the issues of land between farmers and pastoralists in 2006 and 2014, a figure not half the reported cases in 2018 alone. The inadequacies in the Nigerian adaptation efforts to its dwindling climate could be attributed to corruption, institutional shortcomings and political will predisposes the country to more dangers of environmental change impacts. Therefore, climate change mitigating and adaptation measures, unbiased and efficient conflict management strategies, as well as the improved condition of living must be ensured by the government stakeholders to safecurrent and future generations of the country from havocs due to climate impacts.
... Attempts by farmers to prevent the destruction of their properties lead to death, injury, and eviction from their homes due to the stiff and violent resistance from the Fulani herdsmen. There have also been allegations to the effect that the herdsmen take advantage of these opportunities to steal, raze houses, rape, and kill innocent members of the communities they pass through (Chilaka & Odoh, 2012;Obi, 2015). ...
... Boko Haram has utilized explosives carried by suicide bombers or hidden in a target. However, accounts by victims of the herdsmen crisis have shown that the Fulani militants' primary interest is to gain greater access to grazing lands for their livestock (Chilaka & Odoh, 2012;Akinola, & Tella, 2013;Awoniyi, 2013;Obi, 2015). ...
During the administration of Nigerian President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan, there was a marked increase in the country's violence and frequency of terrorist attacks. The purpose of this study is to provide a descriptive analysis of terrorist incidents during the Jonathan administration. Using the START dataset, the study analyzed data over 84 months to examine the effect of Jonathan's presidency on terrorism in Nigeria. The study found a wide variation in the number of terrorist attacks between 2009 and 2015. The full presidency phase experienced a markedly more significant number of terrorist attacks than the post-presidency, acting presidency, and pre-presidency phases. On average, the full presidency and post-presidency phases experienced significantly greater rates of terrorist attacks per month than the acting presidency and pre-presidency phases. The casualty rates were consistent with this variation except that post-presidency appeared the bloodiest of all four phases. The study also revealed that Boko Haram was responsible for most terrorist attacks and casualties during the administration. Implications for these findings and recommendations for further research are discussed.
... Many scholars (Gefu, Kolawole 2002;Shettima, Tar 2008;Ofuoku, Isife 2009;Abbass 2012;Odoh, Chigozie 2012;Adisa 2012;Nformi, Mary-Juliet, Engwali, Nji 2014); Mwamfupe, 2015, Doyin, 2017 postulate that population explosion increases demand for food and respectively, for farm produce. Hence this leads to more demand for land by the farmers to be able to meet the increasing food demand, and to the encroachment of livestock route by the farmers in a bid to enlarge their farms for increase farm yields. ...
... Aside the general effects on loss of lives, animals, farm crops, there are soil erosion, poisoning of water and displacement of farmers and pastoral problems. Okoli and Atelhe (2014); Odoh and Chigozie (2012) reported that 700 to 2000 pastoralists were expelled by the local authorities in Borno and Plateau states respectively. Thus, the minority question has been escalated. ...
Using the results of the 2017–2018 survey of international scholars from nine countries of Sub-Saharan Africa, Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia draws preliminary conclusions about the dominant theoretical approaches in the African international studies academic community. The authors further elaborate on the prospects for conceptualizing African approaches to international relations through the prism of each of the theories outlined. Particular attention is paid to critical theories, especially neo-Marxism in its various interpretations. A special focus is placed on the growing intellectual competition between Western critical thought and critical directions that are widespread in Russia and China. A particular difference in this regard lies in the perception of China’s role in Africa. The authors also question the non-Western nature of postcolonial theories and address the difficult dilemma faced by African international studies scholars—to leave their home country for leading Western universities and receive modern education in international relations, partially breaking away from their roots, or to remain patriotic to their country but stay excluded from international academic discourse. Finally, the article examines the issue of reparations for years of slavery as one of the radical ideological foundations of African IR studies.
... Farmers/herders clash is a major crisis in Nigeria and the way the newspapers covered the crisis through framing is worth investigating, thus the necessity for this study. Scholars have conducted studies on pastorial conflicts, Fulani-herdsmen and farmers conflicts (Abugu and Onoba 2015;Odoh andChigozie, 2012, Shettima andTar, 2008). These studies have focused on identifying the causal factors of clashes between Fulani-herdsmen and farmers as the competition for natural resources without looking at the media reportage of such clashes. ...
... One of the causal factors of Fulani-herdsmen and farmer clash according to Odoh and Chigozie (2012) is encroachment. Farmland and grazing route encroachment readily incites clashes between the herders and farmers. ...
The power of the media to set agenda and influence what we think and talk about has influenced media practice and reception of media contents in Nigeria despite the extremes of powerful media and powerful audience. This tends to be the focus of most media debates and inquiry in the academia in the recent time; most especially, with the emergence of the academic discipline of cultural studies with its emphasis on representation and constructive nature of media texts. This paper reviews the various ways in which culture has been represented and constructed to ‘us’ and by “us” through an analysis of various texts forwarded on new media platforms particularly WhatsApp, Twitter and Facebook by Nigerians debating the issue of Igbo tribe’s call for secession from Nigeria. The paper argues that the Biafra saga and the subsequent debates around the subject are all political constructs, and discourses which, an average Nigerian
has become a part of circulating. The paper proposes that research inquiry into media should start exploring the concept of ‘power’ as a political discourse and that academic inquiry in media studies must recognise the constructive nature of media texts. In doing this therefore, and taking its departure from current debates in cultural and media studies with regards to the notion of ‘power’ in political discourses, posit that culture are representation and language fixes as well as differentiates, the paper presents the findings of content analysis cum thematic analysis of an Igbo, Yoruba and Hausa messages through What’s App, the three major ethnic groups in Nigeria that are involved in the saga. The paper shows that “power” politics plays major role in what is disseminated and that differences via inter-ethnicity has been constructed as the “reality” rather than a myth around which boundaries are erected.
Key words: Biafra, Representation, Discourse, Language, Media, Political Power, Myths
... According to one pastoralist from Plateau state as recorded by Odoh & Chigozie (2012), Our heard is our life because to every nomad life is worthless without his cattle. What to do you expect from us when our source of existence is threatened? ...
... The damage is usually the cause of our conflicts with the Fulani herdsmen. It is a yearly battle between us" (Odoh, 2012). ...
... Climate change is defined as a change in climate that is related directly or indirectly to human activities that modify the composition of the global atmosphere and natural climate variability observed over time [3][4][5]. More precisely, it is a statistical description of the mean variability of key weather patterns over time scales ranging from months to thousands of years, with the classical period being 30 years [6]. Changes in solar radiation (the angle of the sun) and volcanic eruptions are natural events that contribute to the climate system's natural variability and anthropogenic forces, such as the shift in the composition of the atmosphere that began with the industrial revolution [7,8]. ...
... Source: data from meteorological station data result (2021). Note: AAT: average annual temperature, BST: "Belg (spring)" seasonal temperature, and MST "Meher (summer)" seasonal temperature.6 ...
Climate change is one of the most serious environmental challenges affecting people all over the world causing widespread agitation and having an impact on economic systems such as agricultural production. Local communities in Madda Walabu District of Bale Zone, Southeast Ethiopia, are heavily dependent on agriculture. In contrast, the agricultural activity of the local community was depressed by threats such as increased temperature, prolonged drought, and changes in rainfall distribution. To mitigate the adverse consequences of climate change, it is important to understand the local knowledge of adaptation and mitigation actions. This research was a look into the climate change adaptation and mitigation in Ethiopia’s Madda Walabu District households to survive. The objective of the study was to investigate climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies for the synergy of the communities in the Madda Walabu District. A multistage stratified random sampling procedure and three villages were randomly selected. A total of 150 sample households from the three villages were interviewed. Descriptive statistics were employed to analyse data, and the Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) was used for analysis. The results showed that most of the respondents have perceived an increase in temperature, fluctuation in the rainy season, and a decrease in the amount of rainfall. The respondents perceived that they are vulnerable to local climate variability. This study also revealed that 78% of the respondents followed different adaptation strategies to climate change, such as irrigation intensification, agroforestry, agronomic, and cultural practices. Adaptation and mitigation measures can be developed by enhancing the adaptive and mitigating capacity of forest-dependent communities. Therefore, awareness creation on climate change, variability, adaptation, and mitigation measures should be considered toward enhancing the adaptive capacity of the local communities in line with providing seasonal weather information. More research in the domain of climate change and mitigation techniques is needed as several statistical results were not as predicted, and the amount of adaptation and mitigation synergies was low. Furthermore, the study’s households were predominantly pastoralists, and their climate change adaptation and mitigation strategy for the livestock sector was an issue that needed to be addressed urgently.
... Many scholars [Gefu, Kolawole 2002;Shettima, Tar 2008;Ofuoku, Isife 2009;Abbass 2012;Odoh, Chigozie 2012;Adisa 2012;Nformi, Mary-Juliet, Engwali, Nji 2014;Mwamfupe 2015;Doyin 2017] postulate that population explosion increases demand for food and respectively for farm produce. Hence this leads to more demand for land by the farmers to be able to meet the increasing food demand and to the encroachment of livestock route by the farmers in a bid to enlarge their farms for increase farm yields. ...
... Aside the general effects on loss of lives, animals, farm crops, there are soil erosion, poisoning of water and displacement of farmers and pastoral problems. Okoli and Atelhe [2014]; Odoh and Chigozie [2012] reported that 700 to 2000 pastoralists were expelled by the local authorities in Borno and Plateau states respectively. Thus, the minority question has been escalated. ...
General population growth and an increase in the number of farmers, environmental degradation, disruption of conditions for resolving land and water disputes, and the proliferation of Small Arms and Light Weapons (SALW) in the Sahel and West Africa have exacerbated the struggle for the survival and security of economic livelihoods, and in particular negatively affected relationships between shepherds and farmers in several communities in Africa. This kind of conflict between farmers and herdsmen mainly applies to Nigeria, but is also present in other African countries, especially in Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad, Senegal, Cameroon, and Côte d’Ivoire. Such conflicts are not triggered by a single reason, but are driven by a set of multi-causal factors, such as scarce resources in the face of greater need, reprisal attacks, land and climate change, etc. Obviously, in case of Nigeria this kind of conflicts have a disintegrative impact, as they lead to the inimical effects to the country’s unity. The need for fostering value reorientation and restoring earlier interactive ties between herdsmen and farmers seems vital today, so that Nigerians can learn to appreciate the values that unite them more than those that separate the society.
... Cabot (2017) argues that the farmer-herder conflict in West Africa is a struggle over shared natural renewable resources, namely freshwater and land but the conflict is climatechange-induced or-aggravated. Other studies especially those conducted in Nigeria show that climate change is one of its causes particularly as herdsmen move southward as a means of adaptation to the drying climate in the north (Onuoha and Ezirim 2010;Odo and Chilaka 2012;Folami and Folami 2013;Abugu and Onuba 2015;Ubelejit 2016). Equally, studies have rejected the view that climate changes cause herderfarmer conflict although they recognise that climate change can lead to resources scarcity but it does not by itself cause violent conflicts (see, e.g., Schilling et al. 2012;Turner 2004). ...
... This result confirms the previous argument that the effect on climate change on conflict is indirect (Raleigh and Urdal 2007;Buhaug 2010;Schilling et al. 2012). The finding does not support the studies that argue that conflict change causes farmer-herder conflict (Herrero 2006;Obioha 2008;Folami and Folami 2013;Cabot 2017) and that those that specifically argue that climate change-induced herders' migration which engenders conflict as herders come in contact with farmer (e.g., Ajaero et al. 2015;Onuoha and Ezirim 2010;Odo and Chilaka 2012;Abugu and Onuba 2015). Southward migration of herders does not Although historically herders in Nigeria moved southward and back in search of grasses and water for their cattle depending on the season. ...
Climate change is recognised among the drivers of conflicts in developing regions but the growing studies on climate change–violent conflict nexus in Africa have paid little attention to the spatial dimension of the farmer-herder conflict in Nigeria. Existing studies have not explored the issue of climate change vulnerability regarding the farmer-herder conflict. Therefore, this paper contributes to the literature by examining the spatial dimension of the relationship between climate change and farmer-herder conflict vulnerabilities in Nigeria. Data were obtained from various secondary sources and the analyses were based on Climate Security Vulnerability Model. The study shows that the farmer-herder conflict is widespread across Nigeria but with significant spatial clustering and the hotspot is in the Middle Belt, especially in Benue State. The result of the regression model indicates that climate change vulnerability is the best predictor of the farmer-herder conflict in Nigeria but the effect is negative. This result implies that regions more vulnerability to climate change experience lesser farmer-herder conflict. The paper demonstrates that climate change could influence herders’ migration pattern as the herders now move southward due to deteriorating environmental conditions partly caused by changing climate in the northern regions. Thus, it argues climate change is not necessarily the cause of the conflict because the change in the pattern of herder’s migration does not automatically lead to climate change causing conflict. Migration is important but the mechanism establishing the migration-conflict nexus has to be explained by taking cognisance of identity differentials between herding groups and local communities.
... Some of these reasons are classified as political, social, economic, cultural and even religious. Some researchers like Abbass, 2012; Odoh andChigozie, 2012 andOkolie et al, 2014 have attributed the causes of most land conflict to global climate change, desertification and aridity that has reduced arable and grazing lands among other reasons for land conflicts in Nigeria. In addition, Umar, 2002;Abbass, 2012;Audu, 2014;de Haan (2002) have linked some of the causes of land conflict among communities in Nigeria to include blockage of waterholes by farmers and fishermen, crop damage by pastoralist livestock and reprisal attacks on pastoralist by sedentary farmers when ethnic or religious disputes occur in other places. ...
... Some of these reasons are classified as political, social, economic, cultural and even religious. Some researchers like Abbass, 2012; Odoh andChigozie, 2012 andOkolie et al, 2014 have attributed the causes of most land conflict to global climate change, desertification and aridity that has reduced arable and grazing lands among other reasons for land conflicts in Nigeria. In addition, Umar, 2002;Abbass, 2012;Audu, 2014;de Haan (2002) have linked some of the causes of land conflict among communities in Nigeria to include blockage of waterholes by farmers and fishermen, crop damage by pastoralist livestock and reprisal attacks on pastoralist by sedentary farmers when ethnic or religious disputes occur in other places. ...
... Studies (Okoli & Atelhe, 2014;Odoh & Chigozie, 2012;Abbass, 2012) have attributed the influence of global climate change, and the contending desertification and aridity that has reduced arable and grazing lands, forcing pastoralist to move southwards in search of pasture for their livestock on the farmerherder conflict, which have negatively have affect food security in Nigeria. Climate change-induced rainfall shifting patterns/amount and desertification reduces crop lands, and farmers have to follow these patterns, leading to overlap on grazing lands. ...
... These further discourage the available farmers to involve more in large scale food production in the country. This is in line with Okoli and Atelhe (2014), Odoh and Chigozie, (2012), Abbass (2012) that attributed influence of global climate change, and the contending desertification and aridity that has reduced arable and grazing lands, forcing pastoralist to move southwards in search of pasture for their livestock on the farmer-herder conflict, which have negatively affect food security in Nigeria. One of the participants states that: ...
Land is a sine qua non of human existence, and has been conceived as integral and most valuable resources, which are indispensable for human development. Hitherto, in spite of massive land space and fertile soil, land mismanagement constitutes a serious challenge to the attainment of sustainable food security in Nigeria. Ostensibly, the increased level of food importation in the country is a function of a number of factors from inadvertent mismanagement of land resources by local actors The study explores the extent of involvement of local actors in utilization of land resources on food security. It also assess the challenges of land mismanagement on food security, and examines the influences of land mismanagement on rural–urban migration vis-à-vis food insecurity in Nigeria. Sustainable Land Management and Marxism theories were used. Descriptive research design was employed, which uses in-depth interview guide in sourcing for useful information. Purposive and snowball sampling techniques was employed for the study. Data collected were analysed using content analysis. The study concluded that mismanagement of land in Nigeria has encourages decline in quality of environment, quality of food production, and price increase in the food commodity, which has a debilitating effect on food security in the country.
... Violent conflict between nomadic herdsmen from Northern Nigeria and sedentary agrarian communities in the central and southern zones have been singled out amongst others as having a huge socio-economic impact on the people of the entire nation as well as its potential to hamper future development if efforts are not quickly channelled to provide a lasting solution to the menace (Abbass, 2012). Undoubtedly, farmers-herdsmen conflicts in Nigeria have escalated in recent years and is spreading southward, threatening the country's security and stability and becoming as potentially dangerous as the Boko Haram insurgency in the northeast, yet, responses to the crisis at both federal and state levels have been ineffective to curb the situation (Odoh and Chilaka, 2012). ...
... This is in congruence with Ofem and Inyang (2014), who reported that burning of range land, pollution of water source, disrespect for traditional leaders, and destruction of farmland were the major causes of conflict between herders and farmers. Often times in the process of burning, fire spreads into adjourning farms destroying farms, stored food produce in the bans and farm implements (Odoh and Chilaka, 2012). ...
Helping conflict‑affected persons requires an understanding of conflict impacts on their livelihoods. Hence, the effects of farmers‑herdsmen land‑use conflict on the livelihoods of farming households in Benue State were investigated. Data were collected from 110 farming households in Guma and Logo Local Government Areas (LGA) using interview
schedules and focus group discussions. Most (56.4%) respondents were male, aged 51.6 ± 1.6 years, cultivated 9.14 ± 5.75 acres of farm size, and had been involved in farming for 27.7 ± 14.16 years. The majority (>90%) experienced a high degree of exposure to conflict incidences such as destruction of properties, homelessness, and poor access to
the market. The respondents indicated a high effect of land‑use conflict on farming households’ livelihoods (81.8%) and land availability/use (>50%) following conflict regime induced by climate change. All respondents perceived the anti‑open grazing prohibition law as the right step to reducing conflict occurrence. There was no significant
difference in the effects of farmers‑herdsmen land‑use conflict on livelihood of farming households in Guma and Logo LGA (t = 0.051). Farming households were highly vulnerable to the effects of farmers‑herders conflict and are supportive of the current local authority’s prohibition of open grazing. A concerted effort involving religious
institutions, government and non‑governmental organisations including the persuasion of herders to consider other options of livestock production such as ranching or settlement schemes would add impetus to the on‑going efforts to resolve the conflict.
... In recent times, human activities and farming practices have constituted a major factor accelerating climate change in Africa. Activities such as burning of vegetation cover, deforestation and overgrazing have led to increased carbon emissions into the atmosphere and also affects the local weather and climate systems in the concerned regions through moisture fluxes and energy change (Ngaira, 2003;O'Brien and Daigh, 2019). Loss of vegetation cover through bush burning and rapid deforestation are likely to lead to increased droughts, and this is the leading cause of the frequent droughts in the Sahel areas of Sub-Saharan Africa (Ichoku et al., 2016). ...
... This has adversely affected food production for both man and animals and is gradually creating a severe food security challenge for a nation whose population is geometrically increasing. If the impact of climate change is not mitigated quickly, the conflict due to competition for scarce and limited resources might spiral out of control (Odoh and Chilaka, 2012). ...
In Nigeria, there have been clashes between herdsmen and crop farmers. While a lot of people have adjudged it to be solely a religious and political affair, the reality on the ground that cannot be ignored is the fact that the fight for limited resources has led to this conflict. Countless lives, properties and source of livelihoods have been lost because of the competition for limited natural resources. A cow on average contributes between 70 and 120 kg of methane per year, and Nigeria has 20 million of them. Calling for a boycott of beef and increasing prices of beef and beef-based commodities in this part of the world, because of its contribution to climate change is unrealistic as Nigerians still struggle to meet their dietary protein requirement. It is of paramount importance that the focus of the government and all concerned stakeholders shift from just ending the conflicts in addressing the root cause and putting sustainable structures in place for a lasting solution guaranteeing food security. This paper aims to establish the need for concerted efforts towards addressing climate change in the face of geometrically increasing populations and rapidly decreasing finite resources which have induced conflict between farmers and herdsmen over limited and scarce resources.
... International and local media reports have confirmed the death of so many lives, which is the consequence of the farmers-herdsmen clash (Erondu & Nwakanma, 2018). The clashes have resulted in population displacement, low agricultural output, and subsequently increase in the level of unemployment (Odoh & Chilaka, 2012). Agricultural sectors which largely accommodate productive youths and adults have become strained and volatile. ...
... Agricultural sectors which largely accommodate productive youths and adults have become strained and volatile. Farmers-herdsmen conflicts have attributed to the prevailing migration of people from rural centers (local government), which causes the urban centers to compete for the available opportunities (Odoh & Chilaka, 2012). Agricultural sector's contribution to the growth and development of the Nigeria economy cannot be overemphasized (Olaoye, 2014). ...
The study examined farmers–herdsmen conflict, cattle rustling, and banditry in Anka and Maradun local government area of Zamfara State, Nigeria. The study examined the influence of farmers–herdsmen conflicts on cattle rustling and banditry, and vice versa. Exploratory research was employed; focus group discussion (FGD) and key informant interview (KII)were used to collect primary data from the respondents. The data generated were transcribed and recorded verbatim (word-for-word account of verbal interview) and they were converted into written form. Data were enumerated and thematic analysis and categorization were provided. Secondary data were sourced from internet and relevant books. This study adopted the environmental resources scarcity and frustration-aggression theory. The findings of the study revealed that farmers–herdsmen conflict precipitates the acts of cattle rustling and banditry. It also revealed that conversely cattle rustling and banditry contributed to the farmers–herdsmen conflict in the local government area of Zamfara State. The study discovered that the synthesis of farmers–herdsmen conflicts, cattle rustling, and banditry pose serious threat to the safety and security of the people. The researchers recommended that there should be an introduction of grazing reserves equipped with adequate social amenities and that there should be policies capable of enhancing herders’ transformation from traditional to the modern method of animal husbandry. They also suggested that various factors responsible for farmers–herdsmen conflict, cattle rustling, and banditry should be properly managed by traditional and religious leaders. The findings corroborate the gaps which the researchers intended to fill
... cattle, leading in sweeping poverty and unemployment in the land (Fayinka 2004). It has also been revealed that most of the farmers at the rural areas has suffered material damages when the crop farmers inflict physical injuries on their cattle by using cutlasses, spears or guns or by poisoning the cattle, sheep, goats (Awogbade, 1987;Gefu and Are;Odoh SI. Chilaka 2012;Ogbo et al., 2017;Ogo-Oluwa 2017). There has led to several economic and human losses which was beyond human imagination such as shortages, which go to exacerbate the prevailing food scarcity in the land, are experienced. Another, consequence of open grazing led to a high rate of desertification due to the fact that it converts arable or ...
The practise of livestock pastoralism through open grazing has been identified as one of the major issues that has contributed to the development of agriculture and food sector in Nigeria. Some of the advantages of livestock pastoralism includes, source of incomes, production of raw material for the industries, mass production of organic fertilizer most especially for the farmers in the developing areas who cannot afford the costly synthetic fertilisers which has been reported to constitute environmental and health challenges. Moreover, the surveillance of Fulani herdsmen has constituted several challenges on the issue of food production, environmental consequences, and destruction of natural resources, massive displacement of farmers and dilapidation of agricultural soil. Therefore, this chapter intends to provide a comprehensive detail about the major advantages and demerits of open grazing system in Nigeria, robust legal protection and legal framework for pastoralists, intervention of stakeholder participation
... Scholarly discourses of the causes of nomadic pastoralists-peasant farmers' conflicts can be broadly segmented into three. First, recurring violent conflicts between these two groups of land users have been attributed to climate change and environmental security (Cabot, 2017;Odoh & Chilaka, 2012;Onuoha, 2008Onuoha, , 2010Onuoha & Ezirim, 2010). The security implications of climate change in Africa gained currency since 2007 following debates by the African Union (AU), the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), and the Conference of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol. ...
Land use is a fundamental agrarian question which remains central to the economic survival of humanity, especially in Africa. The limited access to land in most African social formations has engendered a fierce competition between non-agricultural user groups and their agricultural counterparts, on the one hand, and among various agricultural user groups, on the other. The two major groups of agricultural land users are nomadic pastoralists and sedentary peasant farmers. As a predominantly agrarian nation, more than half of Nigeria's workforce is engaged in farming. Nonetheless, the internecine conflict between these two groups of agro-land users, which continues to acquire ethnic, religious and political tinge, has grave implications for human security in the country. Explanation of the conflict between nomadic pastoralists and sedentary farmers has centred on climate change, population growth, and insecurity. However, the transnational character of this conflict has not received adequate scholarly attention. Despite the existence of regional frameworks like the ECOWAS Transhumance Protocol, there is a dearth of knowledge on how these regional efforts could be leveraged by the Nigerian government in order to contain the harmful impacts of transhumant pastoralism in the country. Using the regional security complex theory, this paper argues that networking of relevant security agencies, regional bodies and other stakeholders, including civil society organisations, is the panacea for tackling the tension-soaked relationship between these land users.
... Other researchers (Okoli et al., 2014;Odoh and Chigozie, 2012;Abbass, 2012) relate the causes of conflict to the global climate change and the contending desertification and aridity that has reduced arable and grazing lands, forcing pastoralist to move southwards in search of pasture for their livestock. Climate change-induced rainfall shifting patterns/amount and desertification reduces crop lands, and farmers have to follow these patterns, leading to overlap on grazing lands. ...
The broad aim of the thesis is to examine the effect of security management strategies on farmer-herdsmen conflicts in Benue State, North Central Nigeria. The study looks at the background of farmer-herdsmen conflicts in general and Nigeria in particular, which has attracted considerable local and international. This study stress that Nigeria has failed to take into consideration the security management strategies but rather concentrate on other aspects of farmers-herder’s conflicts. The study was undertaken to determine the effect of security management strategies on farmer-herdsmen conflicts in Benue State. It is highpoint the challenges of political authorities and security apparatuses in addressing the implications of farmer-herdsmen conflicts. These competitions often lead to conflict especially between farmers and herders whose culture, livelihood and sustenance centred on the availability of these resources. Thus, natural resource conflicts are pervasive in Africa, West African sub-region, where this group of people are commonly found (Gbanite, 2001). This research adopts a descriptive research design in the collection of data. Both primary and secondary data were utilized, descriptive statistics were used in the analysis of data. Eco-violence, Frustration aggression, Relative deprivation, Democratic peace building and Defensive structural realism theories were adopted. The research in its findings revealed that the major cause of the conflict between farmers and herdsmen in Benue State is land. The research also revealed that there is hatred between farmers and herdsmen in Benue state, which makes it difficult to resolve the conflict. The research shows that farmers and herdsmen do not trust their leaders when it comes to conflict management or resolution of the conflict. The research revealed that farmers and herdsmen share similar experiences on the impact of the conflict where both suffers losses. The research also shows that there was destruction of crops, cattle rustling, farm encroachment, shortage of water for irrigation farming and grazing in Benue state. The researcher therefore recommends that conflict management committee should be set-up by the government involving farmers and herdsmen to create awareness about the stock route. Tradition and local leaders should be asked to support the establishment of grazing and farming practices, so as to avoid future conflicts. Non-governmental organizations should be encouraged to participate in conflict management involving farmers and herdsmen. Government policy should be all inclusive with proper awareness and education, so as to avoid further occurrences of such conflicts.
... The reason for this is the fierce competition for land between the two parties (Odoh and Chigozie 2012;Ducrotoy et al. 2017;Obayelu et al. 2017) as opposed to the extensive social links that existed between them in the past (Awogbade 1983;Okoro 2018). These links include labour exchange, manuring of agricultural fields by grazing livestock, keeping of animals for villagers as a source of reserve investment, and the trading of agricultural produce for milk and cattle (Awogbade 1983). ...
Fulani pastoralists are widely distributed across the six geographical zones of Nigeria and migrate from north to south in search of natural grazing lands at times of forage scarcity. This migration leads annually to resource use conflict and deadly attacks between migrating pastoralists and sedentary arable farmers. These conflicts have generated heated scholarly debates over the last few decades. Here, we provide an overview of the nexus between the farmer-herder crises, grassland management, and livestock production and argue for the establishment of irrigated pastures to increase forage production and quality and, thereby, reduce land-use conflicts. This recommendation is offered in place of the often-called-for transition to a ranching system for livestock production. We recommend an interdisciplinary approach to investigate the willingness of stakeholders in the livestock business to pay for fresh or conserved forage resources, as well as robust policies that could attract investment into the establishment, management, and sustainability of commercial forage production.
... Mgbanwe ụbọchị nke na-ebute ọnwụ na nchịgharị ahịhịa ehi ji eri nri manyere ndị Fụlanị ka ha na-awagharị awagharị iji nweta ahịhịa ehi ha ga na-ata. Ọnọdụ a emeela ka ndị nchịgharị ehi naabanye n'ugbo ndị mmadụ, tarie ma zọrie ihe dum ha hụrụ n'ugbo n'ihi ụkọ ahịhịa, mmiri ọṅụṅụ na ebe jụrụ oyi ha ga-anọ, (McGregor 2014;Audu 2013;Bello 2013;Odoh & Chigozie 2012). ...
Ekwe Jọnal bụ otu n’akaọrụ ndị Igbo Scholars Forum nke malitere site n’obi ịnụ ọkụ iji chịkọlata ụmụaka Igbo gụrụ akwụkwọ ka ha wee nwee ike ịmalite chewe echichi dịka ndị Igbo site n’idepụta akwụkwọ, na-ezukọ ma na-enwe ọgbakọ. N’eziokwu, ọ bụ Dr. Onukwube Alexander Alfred Anedo malitere Igbo Scholars Forum nke bidoro mgbe ha wepụtere akwụkwọ ha dere maka nna ọkpụtọrọ ọkpụ nke otu a bụ Prof. Obed Muojekwu Anizoba (Ozonwa),ka ọnwa Disemba nke afọ 2013 dị mkpụrụ ụbọchị iri na ise iji kwanyere ya ugwu. N’afọ ọma ya, Prof O. M. Anizoba kweere ha ọnya ikuku, http://www.igboscholarsforum.com ebe ha ga-esi na-agwa ụwa ndị ndị Igbo bụ, ihe gbasara ndụ ha na ihe ha kwenyere na ya. E mesikwa, ha ekwetekwa ọnya ikuku ọzọ nke bụ https://www.biafuluigboscholarsforum-com-ng-cm Jọnal ndị ọzọ nke ndị otu a chọrọ isi na ha na-eche Igbo n’ihu ndị ụwa bụ Ideal International Journal na Igbscholars International Journal.
... Mgbanwe ụbọchị nke na-ebute ọnwụ na nchịgharị ahịhịa ehi ji eri nri manyere ndị Fụlanị ka ha na-awagharị awagharị iji nweta ahịhịa ehi ha ga na-ata. Ọnọdụ a emeela ka ndị nchịgharị ehi naabanye n'ugbo ndị mmadụ, tarie ma zọrie ihe dum ha hụrụ n'ugbo n'ihi ụkọ ahịhịa, mmiri ọṅụṅụ na ebe jụrụ oyi ha ga-anọ, (McGregor 2014;Audu 2013;Bello 2013;Odoh & Chigozie 2012). ...
... Factors that cause farmer-herder conflict include insecurity in land tenure systems, increasing numbers of livestock and human population, increasing migration of herders in search of natural resources, and the unfriendly struggle for scarce resources, among others (Al Okoli and Atelhe, 2014;Tonah, 2006). As Odoh et al. (2012) and Turner et al. (2011) show, climate change exacerbates many of these factors. Other scholars point to the construction of citizenship status of pastoralists as the reason behind the incessant farmer-herder conflict in some parts of Africa (e.g. ...
Issues of indigeneity and citizenship rights for second-generation pastoralist migrants across the West African States have received little to no attention in migration and pastoralist studies. This article explores this under-researched area in the field of migration studies and revisits the highly contested migration–citizenship nexus among Fulani herders in the Shai-Osu-Doku and Agogo traditional areas of Ghana. The article captures the crises of citizenship facing descendants of Fulani herders and families, particularly in relation to their integration into local host communities. I argue that second-generation migrants remain at the margins, spatially and socio-politically defined, of both development and society. While they do not have any ties with their ancestral “home countries,” they are also considered non-citizens and face growing hostility in the places they call home. Being a citizen is not simply a static legal position, but a status developed through routine practices, building relations, and shared experiences.
... It can therefore be said that climate change, the migration further south, the growth of agropastoralism, the expansion of farming on pastures land, the invasion of farmlands by cattle, blockage of stock routes and water points, freshwater scarcity, burning of rangelands, cattle theft, inadequate animal health care and disease control, overgrazing on fallow lands, defecation in streams and roads by cattle, extensive sedentarisation, ineffective coping strategies, ethnic stereotyping are usually identified by scholars as the root causes of such violence in rural areas (Folami 2009;Ofuoku and Isife, 2009;Adisa and Adekunle, 2010;Blench 2010;Odoh and Chigozie 2012;Solagberu 2012;Audu 2014 andMcgregor 2014). Abass (2012) opined that the major source of tensions between pastoralists and crop farmers is basically economic, with landrelated issues accounting for the majority of the conflicts. ...
The persistence of conflicts between crop farmers and cattle herders denotes grave socioeconomic consequences and continues to attract attention nationwide. Hence, the study assessed the perception of arable crop farmers towards the causes and effects of farmer-herdsmen conflicts in the study area. A two-staged purposive and snowball sampling techniques were used to select 114 arable crop farmers. Data were collected with the aid of a structured interview schedule and analysed with descriptive and inferential statistical tools. The results show that crop damage and land-related factors are the major causes of farmers-herdsmen conflicts. These conflicts had resulted in the loss of properties, sustenance of injuries, shortage of food, and police cases. A majority (61.4%) of the respondents suggested that specific land areas should be set aside for the grazing of livestock. The correlation analysis revealed that positive and significant relationship exist between age(r = 0.380), farm size (r =0.237) and household size (r = 0.231) at 5% and farmers-herdmen conflicts. In conclusion, arable crop farmers perceive that conflicts exist between farmers and herdsmen which threaten food security and the peaceful coexistence of the local farming communities. Hence, local authorities should establish grazing paddock and form conflict resolution committees among crop farmers and herdsmen to enhance peaceful coexistence .
... The farmers around this region who focus on shifting cultivation and rotation of land for fallowing reasons and good output of farm inputs see the invasion of fallowing grounds and other farmlands by the herder"s cattle as direct incursion on their livelihood (Abass, 2012;Akevi, 2014;Durojaiye, 2014). Scholars (Folami 2009;Ofuoku and Isife 2009;Adekunle and Adisa 2010;Blench 2010;Odoh and Chigozie 2012;Solagberu 2012;Audu 2013Audu , 2014Bello 2013;McGregor 2014;Fabiyi and Otunuga, 2016), had identified climate changes as the root cause of farmersherdsmen conflicts over resource use in Nigeria. It was observed by Gefu and Kolawole (nd) that, while some conflicts arise between same resource group such as between one farming community and another, others occur between different user groups such as between herders and farmers or between foresters and farmers. ...
Knowledge of the relationship between climate change and resource conflict is paramount in resolving resource conflict between farmers and herdsmen in Nigeria. However, there is yet no general agreement on how climate change causes or influences resource conflict. Thus, a review of existing literature that link climate change and resource conflict was conducted for identification of the missing link. These were achieved through the review of literature published in the era of the recent global climate change from late 90s to date. Selections of papers were based on the topic and date of publication. Result showed that there is general agreement that climate change influence resource conflicts. Some of the authors agreed that climate change cannot cause resource conflict in isolation but through influences on other factors that affect resource availability, accessibility and utility. These factors are also influenced by policies and socio-cultural system. Thus, resource conflict may be a secondary or tertiary effect of climate change. Climate change solution is scares in literature that linked climate change and resource conflict. Thus, future studies should be focused on climate change solution to resource conflict. Keywords: Climate change, Resource conflict, Literature review, Famers
... Climate is a fundamental factor shaping the interactions between herdsmen and farmers. No doubt global warming or climate change as it is referred is affecting the activities of herdsmen and farmers (Odoh & Chilaka, 2012). Climatic conditions have continued to affect the occupation of herdsmen pushed by desert encroachment from the Sahara towards the Sahel region. ...
Herdsmen and farmers' conflict is a threat to Nigeria's unity. Throughout the Nigerian history, especially after independence, and worst still today, it has been the basis of tension, animosity and hostility among Nigerians. The rise of this conflict on political culture is not surprising in the context of the relationship between the trajectories of pluralism and development in the country. Farmers and herdsmen competition against each other on resource control came along with resurgence for the call to re-fashion the federal system. This article studied the protracted herdsmen and farmers' crisis in Nigeria and discussed the politics involved in the conflict and its effect on inter-group relations. It also discussed steps to ensure the elimination of the present situation of in-built periodic political crisis over the control of the country's central authority and its resources. The primary cause of the recently ever-recurring herdsmen and farmers crisis in the country is political. The situation has been brought about by the long years of bad governance and the opportunism of the political class which trigger the quest for restructuring and the quest for true federalism. Consequently, the unavoidable conclusion is that Nigeria should remain a corporate entity. It must as well revert to a proper federal system rather than a unitary system. The present system imposed by the military should be jettisoned. Therefore, the constitution is expected to reduce the federal power. The article brings to fore that any attempt to sweep the issue under the carpet would be a gross injustice to Nigerians and would be tantamount to needless enthronement of a state of continual political crisis.
... However, the nomads disagreed regarding farm destruction, over-grazing of land, sexual harassment of women by nomads and defecation by livestock on roads as major causes. Odoh and Chigozie (2012) and Abbass (2012) posited that herder-farmer conflict results from desertification, climate change, reduction in arable and grazing lands, forcing the herders to relocate down south for the survival of their livestock. In recent years, the northern part of Nigeria has been exposed to hostile effects of global warming leading to more drought, desertification and deforestation. ...
A largely overlooked area in extant literature on farmer-herder conflict in Nigeria is coping strategies employed by internally displaced farming communities. Using exploratory design and qualitative data collection tools, we collected data from 23 purposively selected victims of farmer-herder conflict in Nasarawa State who were displaced and were either living in internally displaced persons camps or with friends/family. Findings showed that participants relied on their friends and family to cope with victimization experiences. Reported coping strategies included job switching, relocation to a safer place, formation of a vigilance group and trusting in God. The article recommends, among other things, empowering displaced populations with skills to cope with displacement challenges.
... However, the changing climate now makes shifting weather patterns and water insecurity more unpredictable, extreme and stressful; those factors started to exceed the intimate understanding of natural rhythms associated with climate and weather across different temporal scales within the different groups competing for access to land. Rising competition by Fulani nomads for a depleting grazing land caused by climate change and overgrazing pitched the migrating herdsmen against indigenous farming communities [15]. According to Amobi and Onyishi [16], Nigeria, with its location and unique ecology, is now highly susceptible to the fluctuating effects of climate change, which further extends the insecurity as nomadic herdsmen from the north move downwards towards the central and southern states in search of grazing land for their cattle. ...
This paper analyses the impacts of climate change and its implications for human security for the regions of Northern Nigeria and Lake Chad. The introduction identifies a gap between evidence on global environmental change and interactions on the ground; it positions the scope for a deeper understanding of the climate–security–resource nexus in Northern Nigeria and Lake Chad and consequences for the implementation of SDGs (Sustainable Development Goals). The section on methods describes the nexus concept and justifies adopting it. As a result of analysing the region, the paper sheds light on the conflict pathways triggered by failures in land grazing policy, which is further evidenced by a short comparison with Northern Kenya. A potentially novel contribution is discussed in terms of scaling up collaboration and green markets for the future of Lake Chad, along with an integrated agricultural nexus policy, both of which are ambitious in the spirit of mission-oriented policies and delivering on the SDGs.
... Therefore, climate change might act as a threat multiplier and deepen existing instabilities in countries or create new ones (Selby et al. 2017;Abel et al. 2019;Sofuoğlu and Ay 2020). Instabilities caused by climate change might be shown as migration (Reuveny 2007;Kniveton et al. 2008;McAdam 2012), unrest (Zhang et al. 2005;Nardulli et al. 2015), protests and violence (Scheffran et al. 2012a), conflict (Nordås and Gleditsch 2007;Raleigh 2010;Odoh and Chilaka 2012), terrorism (Eckersley 2008), and war (Zhang et al. 2007;Devitt and Tol 2012). Thereby, climate change leads to the emergence of many new vulnerabilities (Kohler et al. 2019) such as terrorism, social instability, and civil unrest. ...
The study aimed to examine the relationship between climate change and civil
disorder in the Mediterranean, Middle East, and North African countries. Countries are divided into two groups according to their political risk index (70 points).
Accordingly, the first group of countries comprised France, Spain, Italy, Turkey,
Croatia, Slovenia, Greece, Malta, and Cyprus, and the second are Lebanon,
Libya, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Tunisia, Algeria, and Morocco. While the first
group represents European countries, the second group is generally the Middle
East and North African countries. For the empirical analysis, Dumitrescu and
Hurlin (Econ Model 29(4):1450–1460, 2012) panel causality test is utilized to test
the causal relationship between precipitation, temperature, and civil disorder
covering 2001–2016. According to the empirical results, a cross-sectional dependency in each country group which means a shock in one country affects the other
countries in the panel. Causality test results show a causal relationship from
temperature to civil disorder in Algeria, Tunisia, Italy, and Greece. However,
there is no significant causal relationship from precipitation to civil disorder in
any country. The findings show that economic policies and policy choices emerge
as an essential tool to deal with climate change.
... Floods are considered destructive natural hazards that causes millions of human deaths and result in billions of economic losses worldwide. The flood threat cannot be put aside because of future climate change Odoh and Chilaka (2012). It is predicted that the majority of the world will be threatened by the flood frequency and intensity (Jonkman 2005). ...
Floods are among the most destructive natural hazards. Therefore, their prediction is pivotal for flood management and public safety. Factors contributing to flooding are different for every region as they depend upon the characteristics of each region. Therefore, this study evaluated the factors contributing to flood and the precise location of high and very high flood susceptibility regions in Karachi. A new ensemble model (LR-SVM-MLP) is introduced to develop the susceptibility map and evaluate influencing factors. This ensemble model was formed by employing a stacking ensemble on Logistic Regression (LR), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP). A spatial database was generated for the Karachi watershed, which included; twelve conditioning factors as independent variables, 652 flood points and the same number of non-flood points as dependent variables. This data was then randomly divided into 70% and 30% to train and validate models, respectively. To analyse the collinearity among factors and to scrutinize each variable's predictive power, multicollinearity test and Information Gain Ratio were applied, respectively. After training, the models were evaluated on various statistical measures and compared with benchmark models. Results revealed that the proposed ensemble model outperformed Logistic Regression (LR), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) and produced a precise and accurate map. Results of the ensemble model showed 99% accuracy in training and 98% accuracy in validation datasets. This ensemble model can be used by flood management authorities and the government to contribute to future research studies.
... These clashes reinforce circles of extreme poverty and hunger, and destroy social status, food security and affect mostly the most marginalized groups that include women and children of a teaming population like Nigeria. The conflicts between pastoralists and agroforestry farmers in Nigeria, especially in the North central, usually leads to huge losses in terms of human, agricultural and material resources (Ofuoku andIsife, 2009 Adekunle andAdisa 2010;Blench 2010;Odoh and Chigozie 2012;Solagberu 2012;Audu 2013Audu , 2014Bello 2013;McGregor 2014).).Focus on examining the effect of pastoralist activities on the productivity of agroforestry farmers would be of good advantage in examining the aftermath of nomadic activities on arable crop farms financially, socially and economically and more so, it would be a viable tool in policy making towards food security among farm households. The main objective of the paper is to examine the effect of pastoralist-farmers' conflict on the productivity of agroforestry farmers in North central, Nigeria. ...
This study examines the escalating conflict between the farmers and the pastoralists in the North Central region of Nigeria. The conflicts have reached an alarming rate in recent times as examined. It has not only led to social disorder but has also left an unfortunate indelible mark on the agroforestry farmers in terms of their productivity. The study examines the pastoralists-farmers' conflicts in north central Nigeria with regard to the economic implication the conflicts specifically have on the agroforestry farmers as well as their productivity in general. North Central Nigeria was purposely selected for the study because of the severity of the prevailing conflicts between the farmers and the pastoralists (Abugu and Onuba, 2015). Out of the six states that make up the North Central in Nigeria, three (3) states: Benue, Nasarawa and Plateau states were purposely chosen being the most affected states (Abugu et. al., 2015). ne hundred and eighty (180) questionnaires were prepared and administered to the selected agroforestry farmers within the region. The questionnaires solicited for the following information: demographic characteristics of the respondents, causes of farmer-pastoralist conflicts, economic implication of farmer-pastoralist conflicts, frequency of conflict, among others.
... At the local level, authorities create, mediate, and perpetuate conflicts over land. Generally, corruption is a major obstacle to solving this conflict, because government official at the local level exploit the conflict for their own rent seeking, while pastoralists but also farmers are losing out in the process (Odoh S., & Chigozie, C. 2012). ...
A new vista of recommendations is an attempt to discuss issues pertaining to conflicts between farmers' and pastoralists' from a different and depth views, which are collected through longitudinal data in order to broaden and deepen understanding on the modern causes of the conflict in Nigeria and to provide virile solutions. Although, previous writers' views on the conflicts emphasizes much on the question of access to land and water points, which were aggravated by scarcity of resources for the two land users. This study holds the view that beside the already disclosed factors by previous writers there are new dimensional factors, which are responsible for the current predicaments. To this regards, the paper carried out an in depth study to understand the realities on ground that escalated the conflicts to violence. In fact, this is a new approach to the problems posed by the political economy policy of Nigeria. The paper further posed some questions, such as who own the large cattle herds in the nation? Can herdsmen who often look frail and fragile own all the cattle under their control? Can the illiterate pastoral Fulani nomad afford to buy AK47 rifles and efficiently operate it? The study also argues that the recent attempt by the Federal Government to create cattle colonies in the nation is not a viable solution to the conflicts and should not be pushed far. Therefore, the paper calls on the government to be realistic on the main and true reasons why the conflict has taken new dimension. Finally, the paper discusses in depth some holistic recommendations that may provide possible solutions to the resource scarcity and the problems posed by the political economy policy of Nigeria, in order to put an end to the conflicts between the two land resource users.
... There also counter accusations of trespassing on cattle routes for more cultivable land preserved for cattle to eat which usually taken over by farmers. This makes it difficult for herd movement and grazing without changing direction into farmers' crop fields (Odoh & Chilaka, 2012). This has put the pastoralists on the collision course with the villagers in the North Central Nigerian sub-national states of Taraba, Plateau, Benue, Ekiti, Ondo, Osun, Kaduna, Anambra among others which are mostly farmers and where open grazing are prevalent. ...
The Conference is conflict and climate change.
... In respect to this, Folami & Folami (2013) established a linkage between climate change and inter-ethnic conflict, concluding (with various examples) that there is an escalation of conflicts between ethnic groups (and within communities) over access to dwindling resources. Odo & Chilaka (2012) linked the perennial violent clashes in northern Nigeria with climate change and, therefore, enjoined researchers to look beyond religion and politics in explaining causal bases of violence in the north. The re-emergence of conflict between herders and host communities in some states in northern and southern Nigeria has become a major issue of concern apart from Boko Haram terror attacks, Niger Delta Avengers and other forms of insurgencies. ...
Climate change is a change in global and regional climate patterns attributed largely to increase levels of atmospheric temperature. It is also seen as the change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns when both change lasts for an extended period of time or a change or shift in worldwide weather or seasonal change over a long period of time; which can result in flooding, desertification, dew, heat wave, melting of ice, depletion of ozone layer to mention but a few, and which portends a great danger and challenge to sustainable development. In recent times, it has attained a global dimension as never before. In fact, its ramifications as well as its problems and consequence are well known, conversely relatively unknown is its tendency to induce violence, insecurity and conflict. As this has led to series of devastation that has crippled the earth and has been the precursor of most crises in the world, hence this paper examined climate induced conflict insecurity and other antecedent effects. It also provides probable solution as a roadmap for achieving sustainable development goals. More fundamentally, it showed how climate change accounts for the heightening incidence of conflict and insecurity between herders and farmers in Sub-Sahara Africa and specifically in Northern Nigeria. This paper also argued that achieving sustainable development goals in a conflict situation is not possible without addressing the issue of climate change because one of the features of herdsmen is migration and at the heart of migration is climate change and this automatically make them desperate with their unwilling hosts. This of course triggers conflict. Anchoring our analysis on the "Eco-Violence theory", the study posits that much as the immediate cause of herdsmen and farmers conflict in Nigeria is natural resource scarcity cause by climate change. The study made some robust policy recommendations that can tackle climate change, reorient the people's idea toward nature and more research should be done on natural and climatological science that can cushion the effect of climate change. Also recommended is proper legislation to regulate violations of climate induced infiltration such as gas flaring, deforestation, illegal construction on natural water ways, that government should develop a proactive template of revamping the environs and genuine coexistence amongst farmers and Fulani herdsmen.
... Similarly, it has been argued that herdsmen operating in Nigeria are mercenaries hired to kill, destroy and destabilise assumed enemy communities to pave way for the political fortunes of a group of desperate politicians (Michael & Chinwokwu, 2016;Michael, Inyang & Ukpong, 2017). The more dominant argument in recent times is that herdsmen-farmers conflict is caused by the dire effects of climate change in the North, which have forced a greater number of herdsmen to move to other areas thereby resulting in competition for scarce resources (Marietu and Olarewaju, 2009;Odoh & Chilaka, 2012;Ubelejit, 2016;Eteng, 2016). However, it is not our intention in this study to dwell so much on the controversies surrounding the emergence of the herdsmenfarmers feud. ...
The task of this study is to interrogate the underlying factors behind the recurrence of the herdsmen-farmers conflict and its emergent threat to the corporate existence of Nigeria. Consequently, this study is laid on the premise that it is the failure of the Nigerian state to carry out its fundamental function of the protection of lives and private properties that is responsible for the herdsmen-farmers conflict. As an explanatory device, this study utilised the structural-functionalist approach. Methodology for this study comprised the time series as research design; data were gathered from secondary sources, using the documentary observational method, while descriptive statistical tools were employed in data analysis. This work found out that state failure to protect the private properties of both herders and farmers is positively associated with herdsmen-farmers violence in Nigeria. Similarly, this study concluded that herders-farmers conflict poses a serious threat to the corporate existence of Nigeria. Therefore, it was recommended that urgent steps should be taken to improve the capacity of the Nigerian state to protect lives and properties.
... The farmer-herder conflict has led to unprecedented destruction of lives and properties of people in Nigeria. Studies have revealed that the attacks by the herders across states in the humid and semi-humid areas of Nigeria while green vegetation and water sources for their cattle, in 2015 earned a reputation of being the fourth deadliest terrorist group in the world (Odoh and Chilaka 2012;International Crisis Group 2017). The records of the Global Terrorism Index (GTI) showed that Fulani herders in Nigeria have killed over 1, 229 people in 2014 (Buchanan 2015). ...
Climate change has remained a major problem around which global
development policies are framed. The effects of climate change are rising
tremendously and are more evident in Africa with low adaptive capacity
to the impacts of climate change and where climate change has led to
drought and desertification with consequences for safety and security in
the region. Although the connection between climate change and
conflicts is well studied, there is little research on the geopolitical
contribution of climate change to conflicts. Using a dominant qualitative
approach based on secondary data and eco-violence theory, this study
examines how geopolitics affects climate change-induced conflicts and
displacement in West Africa. Drawing largely from Nigeria and Mali, the
study argues that, despite the destructive effects of anthropogenic
activities created by insufficient competing areas for livelihood and
subsistence resources, the implementation of climate resolution among
countries and regions of the world has remained obscure. The
repercussions of the geopolitics of climate change are the insurgencies
and cattle herders’ unrest in Africa, especially the West African region.
... (2015) argued that cattle and cattle farmers also suffer damages because sometimes crop farmers inflict physical injuries on their cattle and even poison the cattle. Corroborating the claim of Ibrahim et al (2015), Odoh and Chilaka (2012) revealed that about 34 cattle, 11 sheep/goats and other items valued at over N2.64 million naira were lost from a particular conflict involving farmers and pastoralists. The resultant effect of these incidents is the prevailing food crisis in the country. ...
Nigeria is blessed with numerous agro-ecological resources that should make it a major exporter of food items in the world. Regrettably, it has become a major food importer as a result of food insecurity. The critical state of food production in the country is worsened by the phenomena of open grazing, climate change, global warming and the Covid-19 global pandemic. These developments have deleterious effects on agricultural activities in general, food production and sustainable human development in particular. While there are policies and agencies in the state to combat these developments, it appears they have proved ineffective in the face of increasing inconsistency in government policies, open grazing, climate change and global warming. The article within the framework of modernisation theory examines the issues of open grazing, food insecurity and sustainable human development in Nigeria. This is because any country that cannot feed its population cannot boost of human development. This study was carried out using the qualitative desktop method in deriving data for addressing the issues under analysis. 31 literature sources were consulted and analysed in order to explore the nexus between open grazing, food insecurity and sustainable human development in Nigeria. This article adopts a qualitative approach and is descriptive in nature, with the researcher setting out to illustrate the association that exists between the dependent and independent variables. Authoritative scholarly sources were reviewed, during a desktop study. The purpose was to identify the relevant publications and apply them in the research. The article argues that unless concrete efforts are made to mitigate the effects of open grazing and Covid-19, ensure increased and improved food production, the country may experience worst cases of Fulani herdsmen-farmer clashes, food crisis and human underdevelopment. The article concludes that government at all level should rise up to their responsibilities by providing enabling environment for herdsmen and farmer to engage in the production of sufficient food for sustainable human development in the country.
... Floods are considered destructive natural hazards that causes millions of human deaths and result in billions of economic losses worldwide. The flood threat cannot be put aside because of future climate change Odoh and Chilaka (2012). It is predicted that the majority of the world will be threatened by the flood frequency and intensity (Jonkman 2005). ...
Floods are among the most destructive natural hazards. Therefore, their prediction is pivotal for flood management and public safety. Factors contributing to flood are different for every watershed as they depend upon the characteristics of each watershed. Therefore, this study evaluated the factors contributing to flood and the precise location of high and very high flood susceptibility regions in Karachi. A new ensemble model (LR-SVM-MLP) is introduced to develop the susceptibility map and evaluate influencing factors. This ensemble model was formed by employing a stacking ensemble on Logistic Regression (LR), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP). A spatial database was generated for the Karachi watershed, which included; twelve conditioning factors as independent variables, 652 flood points and the same number of non-flood points as dependent variables. This data was then randomly divided into 70% and 30% to train and validate models, respectively. To analyse the collinearity among factors and to scrutinize each variable's predictive power, multicollinearity test and Information Gain Ratio were applied, respectively. After training, the models were evaluated on various statistical measures and compared with benchmark models. Results revealed that the proposed ensemble model outperformed Logistic Regression (LR), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) and produced a precise and accurate map. Results of ensemble model showed 99% accuracy in training and 98% accuracy in testing datasets. This ensemble model can be used by flood management authorities and the government to contribute to future research studies.
... Although farmer-herders" conflicts are not new to the world, and indeed Nigeria (Lebari, 2018;Odoh & Chigozie, 2012), the trend of this conflict has recently changed significantly, with an obvious outlook of competition and domination among these groups. There have been several attacks and counter-attacks between the herdsmen and rural or indigenous T farmers, and these violent attacks have been responsible for the loss of lives, herds, crops, farms and the sacking of several communities. ...
There is emerging consensus that climate has been changing. This change in the global climate has shown the capacity to threaten several aspects of global, regional and national life, among which is security and agriculture (food security). Thus, in Nigeria, the climate crisis appears to have exposed farmers and herders to frequent conflicts, and because the indigenous farmers grow the locally produced food and the herders, on the other hand, rear most of the animals that serve as meat (particularly beef), any conflict between these two places food security under threat. The study sought to: examine the role of climate change on the heightened farmers-herders conflict in Nigeria; and, explore the implications of climate change impacts on farmers-herders conflicts on Nigeria's food security. The study was guided by the eco-violence theory, which examines the interrelationship between environmental changes and possible conflict situations. Data were derived from secondary sources that include journal articles, texts and books. The study established that climate change plays a great role in the frequent violent conflicts that have become a constant in farmer-herders relations in recent years and that these conflicts affect the country's agricultural output and food security negatively. The study recommends that the Nigerian state should transit from traditional agricultural system to Climate-Smart Agriculture to meet future needs, as well as build modern (public) ranches with the best of technologies in the Sahel region, to discourage nomadic herding.
... Nigeria"s climate is likely to see growing shifts in temperature, rainfall, storms, and sea levels throughout the twenty-first century. Poor adaptive responses to these shifts could help fuel violent conflicts in some areas of the country (Odoh and Chilaka, 2012). A basic causal mechanism links climate change with violence in Nigeria. ...
The study analysed the impacts of violent conflicts on the economies of rural communities in Nasarawa State, Nigeria. Primary data were collected from the respondents using a structured interview schedule, while focus group discussions (FGD) sessions were employed to assess effects of conflicts on communities. Data were analysed using simple descriptive statistics, alternative resource cost estimation (ARCE) and content analysis while the Likert scale was used to measure the perception of respondents towards the causes of conflicts. There were six (6) major categories of conflicts identified in the area. These categories were communal conflicts, ethnic conflicts, resource conflicts (most often land conflicts), politically motivated conflicts, conflicts due to traditional chieftaincy, and the conflicts between state forces and militia groups. Expansion of agro-pastoralism (4.6) and Extensive sedentism (4.5) were very serious factors that were perceived to lead to conflicts. A total of ₦2,289,859,549 worth 30.28% of the State's 2018 IGR (Internal Generated Revenue) were lost in these conflicts. It was recommended that laws regarding people with diverse backgrounds and socioeconomic needs and population growth in relation to limited resources should be developed with great care and attention paid to all the parties involved in the process. Participatory approaches to problem identification, conflict management and resolutions Original Research Article Ogezi et al.; AJAEES, 39(11): 492-511, 2021; Article no.AJAEES.73900 493 need to be established in the communities with regular interactions between and among locals periodically and frequently.
General population growth and an increase in the number of farmers, environmental degradation, disruption of conditions for resolving land and water disputes, and the proliferation of Small Arms and Light Weapons (SALW) in the Sahel and West Africa have exacerbated the struggle for the survival and security of economic livelihoods, and in particular negatively affected relationships between shepherds and farmers in several communities in Africa. This kind of conflict between farmers and herdsmen mainly applies to Nigeria, but is also present in other African countries, especially in Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad, Senegal, Cameroon, and Côte d’Ivoire. Such conflicts are not triggered by a single reason, but are driven by a set of multi-causal factors, such as scarce resources in the face of greater need, reprisal attacks, land and climate change, etc. Obviously, in case of Nigeria these kinds of conflicts have a disintegrative impact, as they lead to inimical effects to the country’s unity. The need for fostering value reorientation and restoring earlier interactive ties between herdsmen and farmers seems vital today so that Nigerians can learn to appreciate the values that unite them more than those that separate the society.
Conflicts between farmers and nomadic cattle herders have become a common feature of economic livelihood in West Africa. In recent times, Nigeria has witnessed series of violent clashes arising from the activities of the farmers and nomadic herdsmen, who move about on a daily basis with their cattle in search of water and green pastures. The paper discussed the strategies governments have adapted to addressing conflicts resulting from various violent clashes between nomadic herdsmen and farmers in Nigeria and observed that their relationships in the previous years have been cordial and symbiotic. Relevant published texts across the country and the eclectic theory provided the leverage for the study. It revealed that the Nigeria"s population is dynamic and growing at a very rapid rate compared to land that is relatively static which constitutes the most important cause of pressure and demand for food resources. Whenever violent clashes occur, the nomadic herdsmen attack and kill scores of villagers in the course of a contest for grazing fields and water, there are usually reprisal attacks. This paper discovered that this scenario has, time without number, thrown up tribal, ethnic, regional, religious and political sentiments that threaten the corporate existence of Nigeria. It is, therefore, recommended among others that government should ensure that those involved in the allocation of land for farming should imbibe responsibility and not allocate along cattle route or over grazing lands to avoid encroachment by nomadic herdsmen.
Increasing conflict between nomadic pastoralists and settled farmers are occurring across West Africa, due to issues of land availability and access. This study is the first detailed investigation of changes in land availability for nomadic pastoralists in Nigeria, where most conflicts occur. The study maps land use changes between cultivated and grazing land in three study areas surrounding Kano, the largest city in savanna Africa. Results indicate that grazing land availability decreased by 150 % and fallow land by almost 300 % in areas close to the city between 1980 and 2014, but at a much lower rate in distant areas despite massive growth in rural population. The lower loss of grazing land is attributed to the presence of grazing reserves in the most distant study area, as well as distance from the city. Spatial metrics analysis showed decreased connectedness between patches of grazing land due to farmland encroachment across traditional migration routes near to the city. Increased connectedness in the distant study area is attributed to the presence of grazing reserves acting as foci, connecting grazing with access to water. Government land policies should focus on creation of new, accessible grazing reserves and routeways away from large urban centres, accompanied by measures for soil and pasture improvement and digital tagging of livestock. Accompanying efforts to intensify agricultural production across Nigeria would deter further agricultural encroachment on grazing land. Since Nigeria’s GDP is the highest in Africa, but among the lowest in agricultural intensity, this should be possible.
This study examined the impact of population dynamics, socioeconomic characteristics and environmental changes on nomadic pastoralist/farmers conflicts in North Central Nigeria. Survey design was adopted, questionnaires were administered to 796 respondents as population sample of which 63% were farmers and 37% were nomadic pastoralists. The survey yielded a response rate of 78.5%. Using descriptive statistic for data analysis, the study found that immigration, urbanization and fecundity rate were identified population dynamics that played a significant roles in nomadic pastoralist and farmers' conflicts; the study also identified income level, indigenization, ethnic identity, religion, educational level and land ownership as the major socioeconomic characteristics that caused nomadic pastoralists/farmers' conflict; while climate change, deforestation, drought, change in ecosystem and flooding were environmental changes that constituted major impacts on nomadic pastoralist/farmers. Generally, the study concluded that, destruction of properties, loss of innocent lives and the growing cases of humanitarian crises are major consequences of the conflict. The deduction therefore is that from nomadic pastoralists' perspective, blockage of grazing and water routes need to be addressed; and from the farmers' perspective, addressing the problem of encroachment on farm lands and crops will play an important role. As a result, the study concluded that active and serious government participation in the form of grazing lanes or ranches in the regions would boost productivity and achievement of Sustainable Development Goals 2, and 6, which emphasize the need to adequately ensure food security and sustainable management of resources for the teaming population.
The North Central Nigeria has witnessed series of violent clashes arising from the activities of the header and farmers, who move about on a daily basis with their cows in search of water and green pastures. The study examined the effect of population dynamic resulting from headers and farmers conflict in Nigeria. Malthusian theory provided the leverage for the study. It revealed that the Nigeria's population is dynamic and growing at a very rapid rate compared to land that is relatively static which constitutes the most important cause of pressure and demand for food resources. Whenever conflict occur, the headers attack and kill scores of villagers in the course of a contest for grazing fields and water, there are usually reprisal attacks. This study discovered that this scenario has, time without number, thrown up tribal, ethnic, regional, religious and political sentiments that threaten the corporate existence of Nigeria. The study recommended that active and sincere government intervention through the establishment of Grazing corridors or ranches in the regions, Government should ensure that those involved in the allocation of land for farming should imbibe responsibility and not allocate along cattle route or over grazing lands to avoid encroachment by herders. This will enhance productivity and achievement of Sustainable Development Goals 2, and 6, which emphasize the need to adequately achieve food security and sustainable management of resources for the teaming Nigeria population.
The Conflict between farmers and herders in Nigeria constitutes one of the greatest threats to peaceful coexistence, human and national security and as well as to efforts targeted at achieving sustainable national development. From desk research, the paper analyzed the causes of farmer-herder conflict and its implications for continued peace and security of lives and property of Nigerians. It also provided policy recommendations as way forward for Nigeria, in her quest to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals among the comity of nations.
The North Central Nigeria has witnessed series of violent clashes arising from the activities of the header and farmers, who move about on a daily basis with their cows in search of water and green pastures. The study examined the effect of population dynamic resulting from headers and farmers conflict in Nigeria. Malthusian theory provided the leverage for the study. It revealed that the Nigeria's population is dynamic and growing at a very rapid rate compared to land that is relatively static which constitutes the most important cause of pressure and demand for food resources. Whenever conflict occur, the headers attack and kill scores of villagers in the course of a contest for grazing fields and water, there are usually reprisal attacks. This study discovered that this scenario has, time without number, thrown up tribal, ethnic, regional, religious and political sentiments that threaten the corporate existence of Nigeria. The study recommended that active and sincere government intervention through the establishment of Grazing corridors or ranches in the regions, Government should ensure that those involved in the allocation of land for farming should imbibe responsibility and not allocate along cattle route or over grazing lands to avoid encroachment by herders. This will enhance productivity and achievement of Sustainable Development Goals 2, and 6, which emphasize the need to adequately achieve food security and sustainable management of resources for the teaming Nigeria population.
Nigeria remains a mosaic made up of various ethnic, religious and socioeconomic groups. Thus, from the colonial era, the question of how to protect the interests of the various groups which make up the British patchwork called Nigeria has remained unresolved. This study intervenes by analyzing how the unresolved national question has transformed the complex social relations among various groups into violent conflict, one of which is the recurring armed conflict between crop farmers-herdsmen in Nigeria. Specifically, the study interrogates the following research questions: has the inability to address the indigene-settler dichotomy engendered violent conflict between crop farmers and herdsmen in Nigeria? Does the alienation of the federating units in national security management weaken capacity of the Nigerian state to contain the violent armed conflict between crop farmers-herdsmen? The study adopted the conflict transformation theory, while content analysis was employed to analyze secondary data obtained via documentary approach. Based on evidence from three states purposively selected three different geo-political zones in Nigeria, the study argued that the transformation of farmers-herders conflict into violent armed conflict is linked to the indigene-settler dichotomy and the concomitant struggle over scarce resources by both groups. Again, the alienation of the federating units from national security management arising from the centralization of security apparatus creates interstices exploited by criminal elements to perpetuate violent armed conflict between farmers-herdsmen in Nigeria. The study recommends that national security apparatus be decentralized to enable federating units respond quickly to imminent armed violence.
Pastoralism in Nigeria faces challenges and these hampers the productivity that consequentially affect the Nation's economy. Available grazing lands are diminishing at an alarming rate and livestock pathways are blocked through land use, urbanisation and frontiers. The old grazing routes that existed for centuries are almost gone. Only 2.82% of the grazing reserves have been acquired and these are poorly managed. The increase in population, drying of waterholes, shifting in rainfall pattern leading to drought as a result of the changing climate affects both pastoralists and farmers. Hence, they compete over land leading to conflict, and embedded within these are growing form of capitalists land tenure and delay in the justice system that exacerbates the situation. This study examines the argument of land use conflict as the major cause of farmer-pastoralist conflict in Nigeria. The Nigerian Forestry Management Evaluation and Coordinating Unit (FORMECU) land use and land cover (LULC) dataset and published articles of previous farmer-pastoralist conflicts in the country are used. Results show that between 1976 and 1995, all land uses gain, attesting to the increase in population and competition over dwindling resources. However, overlap maps show intensive crop farming has expanded into grazing lands in many areas over these years. These areas of encroachment agree with most of the conflict points recorded. For a lasting solution, we propose a possible revisit of symbiotic engagements between farmers and pastoralists. The full engagement of communities, Non-governmental Organisations (NGOs), Alternative Dispute Resolutions (ADRs) and government as overseers are suggested.
Farmers-herders conflicts in Nigeria have persisted over decades. To bring an end to these conflicts the Benue state government enacted the Open Grazing Prohibition and Ranches establishment Law criminalising animals from openly grazing within the state. This study specifically examined the issues that led to the enactment of the law and its consequences. The study adopted cross sectional and explorative research design using questionnaire (400) and Key Informant Interviews with 31 participants. Anchored on integrated threat theory of inter-group relation the study found perceived reasons that led to enactment of this law as interpreted differently by the parties involved. While the herders view the law as a deliberate way of chasing them out of Benue state, the farmers mostly believe the law is aimed at protecting them to help for their farming activities. Consequent upon this new law the intergroup relations between the farmers and herders have become more volatile with more violence, suspicion and distrust.
The adverse effect that climate change has on our daily lives is one that we cannot overlook. Despite the outcry by the United Nations and other advocates for climate action, some world leaders have turned a blind eye and deaf ear to the obvious endemic that climate action poses. The herdsmen-farmers clash that has been a source of concern for some time now has recently gotten more attention because of the rampant reports of these clashes by the media in recent time. Other sources of this recent attention include: intensity of these conflicts (six times deadlier than Boko Haram related deaths in recent times); modus operandi of the attacks; and the dire consequences on the Nigerian socioeconomic. One of the major drivers of these violent conflicts have been attributed to migration due to increasing scarcity (due to environmental changes) of resources such as freshwater and vegetation for pastoral farmers in the Northern parts of the country where they are predominantly resident. For environmental change, as one of the major drivers of conflict, six types of environmental changes have been implicated: greenhouse induced climate change; ozone layer depletion; loss and degradation of arable land; forest degradation; pollution and depletion of fresh water; and loss of ecosystem services e.g. fisheries. Some mitigation measures to end this herders-farmers conflict include: adaptation of clean renewable energy; tree planting and afforestation; Lake Chad restoration project; livestock ranching; tackling insecurity; development of the northern region; and public sensitization towards oneness. climate change, environmental sustainability, herders-farmers
Climate change does not fit into the mode of traditional threats to national security, such as war, terrorism, insurgency, espionage, or sabotage. Yet its non-violent and gradual dynamics of manifestation serve only to disguise its impact on livelihoods, social order, peace, and stability. Despite being the most profound of the environmental change problems confronting the world at large, with disproportionate impact on Asia and Africa, there is relatively little research that explores the ramifications of climate change for national security in Nigeria. This paper maps the possible connections between climate change and national security with particular reference to Nigeria. It further examines the key environmental trends that serve as 'stressors' for the transmission dynamics of security threats posed by climate change to the country. It concludes with a range of recommendations on how Nigeria could mitigate the security threats posed by climate change.
Toronto DOES climate change threaten international peace and security? The British government thinks it does. As this month's head of the United Nations Security Council, Britain convened a debate on the matter last Tuesday. One in four United Nations member countries joined the discussion — a record for this kind of thematic debate. Countries rich and poor, large and small, and from all continents — Bangladesh, Ghana, Japan, Mexico, much of Europe and, most poignantly, a large number of small island states endangered by rising seas — recognized the security implications of climate change. Some other developing countries — Brazil, Cuba and India and most of the biggest producers of fossil fuels and carbon dioxide, including China, Qatar and Russia — either questioned the very idea of such a link or argued that the Security Council is not the right place to talk about it. But these skeptics are wrong. Evidence is fast accumulating that, within our children's lifetimes, severe droughts, storms and heat waves caused by climate change could rip apart societies from one side of the planet to the other. Climate stress may well represent a challenge to international security just as dangerous — and more intractable — than the arms race between the United States and the Soviet Union during the cold war or the proliferation of nuclear weapons among rogue states today. Congress and senior military leaders are taking heed: Legislation under consideration in both the Senate and the House calls for the director of national intelligence to report on the geopolitical implications of climate change. And last week a panel of 11 retired generals and admirals warned that climate change is already a "threat multiplier" in the world's fragile regions, "exacerbating conditions that lead to failed states — the breeding grounds for extremism and terrorism." Addressing the question of scientific uncertainty about climate change, Gen. Gordon R. Sullivan, a former Army chief of staff who is now retired, said: "Speaking as a soldier, we never have 100 percent certainty. If you wait until you have 100 percent certainty, something bad is going to happen on the battlefield." In the future, that battlefield is likely to be complex and hazardous. Climate change will help produce the kind of military challenges that are difficult for today's conventional forces to handle: insurgencies, genocide, guerrilla attacks, gang warfare and global terrorism.
The causal relationship between environmental scarcities - the scarcity of renewable resources - and the outbreak of violent conflict is complex. Environmental scarcity emerges within a political, social economic, and ecological context and interacts with many of these contextual factors to contribute to violence. To examine this relationship, we outline a theoretical framework defining scarcities, the social effects arising from these scarcities, and the ensuing movement towards violence. We subsequently apply this framework to analyse the link between environmental scarcities and violent conflict in South Africa. Within South Africa, violence arose at precisely the same time that many anticipated a transformation to a more peaceful society - upon the release of Nelson Mandela, the end of the ban on political activity and the official end to apartheid. This article provides a new perspective on these events by analysing the link between South Africa's environmental scarcity and violent conflict.
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