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Adaptation to Climate Change in Bangladesh: Future Outlook
Abstract
The human induced climate change is no longer a theoretical concept. There is a global consensus among scientists, professionals, academics, policy makers and strategists that the globe has already committed to certain degree of change in climate system. Climate change will affect all human and ecological systems and socio-economic development activities. Pressure has been mounting on the global leadership to take necessary steps in response to changes in climate system
... Additionally, there has been a rise in the lowest temperatures during the winter and monsoon seasons, with increases of 0.45°C and 0.52°C, respectively (DoE, 2023). According to Ahmed et al. (1999), Bangladesh's expected temperature rise from the base year of 1990 is predicted to reach 1.3°C by 2030 and 2.6°C by 2075. In a different study, IOC (1993) predicted that by 2030, there will be fluctuations of 0.7°C in the monsoon months and 1.4°C in the winter. ...
... This change is expected to increase the unpredictable nature of extreme weather events, making it more difficult to estimate the frequency of extreme rainfall events because there might not be a consistent set of values for statistical extrapolation (Linacre, 1992). Based on data from 1990, it is projected that the average annual evaporation in Bangladesh will increase slightly by 2075 while remaining relatively stable up to 2030 (Ahmed et al., 1999). Although the country as a whole receives 2320 mm of rain on average each year, some areas receive up to 6000 mm on average (Hossain et al., 1987b). ...
... Crop productivity is severely harmed by cyclones. Due to its natural surroundings and proximity to a tropical cyclone, Bangladesh's coastal region is especially prone to cyclonic storms, floods, and other natural calamities (Ahmed & Rahman, 1999). Cyclones have the most detrimental effects on human life since they destroy crops, homes, animals, and transportation infrastructure, in addition to driving up the number of accidental human deaths. ...
Climate change has become one of the most important threats to worldwide agricultural production systems. This paper evaluates how Bangladesh, a prominent developing country in the low-lying Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta, is susceptible to climate change and assesses present agricultural practices that target sustaining production under these threats. The study synthesizes the ongoing research findings of climatic change tendency, involving the rising of temperature, alteration of precipitation pattern, along with the onward frequency of extreme weather incidence and their complication to crop production. It discusses the key susceptibilities of Bangladesh’s crop sector, such as a shortage of irrigation water, the impact of rising temperatures, increasing sea levels and the loss of biodiversity. Moreover, the study explores the resilience strategies and measures adopted by farmers, policymakers and researchers to alleviate the hostile effect of climate change on crop production. With all these considerations, the paper aimed to analyse the current climate change trend, adverse effects to agricultural sectors and existing resilience practices in Bangladesh as well as future strategies against climate change.
... It was found that there would be a seasonal variation in changed temperature: 1.4 o C change in the winter and 0.7 o C in the monsoon months in 2030. For 2070 the variation would be 2.1 o C and 1.7 o C for winter and monsoon, respectively [11] . It was reported that the winter rainfall would decrease at a negligible rate in 2030, while in 2075 there would not be any appreciable rainfall in winter. ...
... On the other hand, monsoon precipitation would increase at a rate of 12 percent and 27 percent for the two projection years, respectively. The following table reviews the climate change scenarios developed by Ahmed and Alam [11] . Ahmed and Alam, (1998) The main impact of climate change is predicted to be the change in temperature and precipitation. ...
... The following table reviews the climate change scenarios developed by Ahmed and Alam [11] . Ahmed and Alam, (1998) The main impact of climate change is predicted to be the change in temperature and precipitation. Temperature records over the last couple of decades indicate a warming surface temperature and a considerable amount of change in rainfall patterns have also been found which is not a good-looking for us. ...
Agriculture is always vulnerable to unfavorable weather events and climatic conditions. Despite technological advancements such as better crop varieties and irrigation systems; weather and climate are still key factors in agricultural productivity. Today agriculture is the single most and the largest sector of Bangladesh's economy which accounts for 12.64 percent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 47.30 percent of the labor force. It may consider as the lifeline of Bangladesh economy. It has to be noted that climate change have an effect on agriculture in various ways including through changes in average temperatures, rainfall patterns, atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and ground-level ozone concentrations (O3), nutritional quality of some foods, and sea level rise etc. The paper will focus on the major challenges of climate change on agricultural development and food security issues in Bangladesh. Climate change has possibility of negative impact on crop production as well as all other sectors of agriculture. In effect, these changes may increase the risk of food security in our country. Field study clarified about the negative effects on food production, wherever most of the farmers observed unfavorable change in weather patterns especially in case of precipitation and temperature. Therefore it is very much urgent to determine the potential mitigation measures to cope with the problem associate with the climate change by further investigation. Government and nongovernment organizations might come forward to find out the optimum solutions; besides, national and international joint cooperation is highly required for not only saving our own country but also the human civilization.
... Bangladesh with the Bay of Bengal on the South is highly vulnerable to sea level rising as low-lying country [37][38][39][40][41]. There is evidence that that the sea level rise at Hiron Point in the Sundarbans was 4.00 mm per year and it was 7.8 mm/year in Cox's Bazar station [42,43]. ...
... In these study, Patuakhali, Bhola, Monpura and Hatiya Island was found as mostly vulnerable to SLR whereas Noakhali Feni Coastal zone was found as moderately vulnerable in Bangladesh. Ahmed, et al. [37] predicted that in Bangladesh sea level will rise by 30 cm and temperature will rise by 0.7 0 C and 1.3 0 C in monsoon and in winter respectively in 2030 compared to base year 1990 whereas in 2050 the sea level will rise by 50 cm and temperature by 1.1 0 C in monsoon and 1.8 0 C in winter (Table 1). ...
... Coastal area of Bangladesh is highly susceptible due to cyclonic storms and flood for its natural settings alongside tropical cyclone made this area of highly vulnerable to be affected by natural disasters [37]. But to some extent flood has be considered in Bangladesh for the betterment of the agriculture, because floods bring much sediments and make the land fertile, but the intensification of gigantic floods and rapidly growing global warming making this situation more volatile and problematic [61]. ...
Climate change and its impact on human-environment are immeasurable because of its multidimensional effects. But the effect is not same for all countries, it depends on the countries geographical settings. Alongside location, education of the people, environmental awareness, somewhat might minimize the probability of loss in response to any kinds of disasters. Undertaken study was conducted based on an extensive published literatures (197-between 1995 and 2018) review with a view to consolidating the possible impacts of climate change on crop production in Bangladesh. It has found that already the impact has begun badly in Bangladesh. Temperature is gradually rising, frequency of floods, river bank erosion, storm surge, magnitude of cyclone, salinity intrusion, and the volatility of rainfall has increased comparing to past. All these led to the probability of decreasing the crop production. As climate change has become a great concern for countries food security, it is now the appropriate time to take and install proper rules and regulations through inflexible attitude. With the help of various international and national organizations, government of Bangladesh inordinately trying to reduce the consequences of climate change. A comprehensive measurement must make sure to enhance the capability of encountering climate change, otherwise it will cost of enormous loss, especially on agriculture in Bangladesh.
... Geographically it is highly exposed to the physical impacts of climate change, with these impacts exacerbating other on-going environmental, social and economic challenges facing this densely-populated country. At the same time, Bangladesh's capacity to adapt to these impacts has been relatively weak (Ahmed et al., 1999;Mahmud and Prowse, 2012), with Islam et al. (2013, p. 96) noting; ''Low economic strength, inadequate infrastructure, a low level of social development, a lack of institutional capacity and a high dependency on the natural resource base make the country more vulnerable". Bangladesh's vulnerability is compounded by significant uncertainties around current climate variability and future climate change, and the extent of the resultant impacts; particularly indirect social and economic impacts. ...
... A recent review identified an 'institutionally chaotic' network including 37 central government ministries (plus their departments and autonomous bodies), more than 10 Donors on a multi-lateral and bilateral basis, local government, a host of non-governmental organisations (NGOs) (an estimated 19,000-45,000 NGOs and voluntary organisations are active scattered over most villages in Bangladesh; Haider, 2011), private sector enterprises, the research community including universities and research organisations, and individual villages and households (O'Donnell et al., 2013). Overall, Bangladeshi adaptation governance can be characterized as hierarchal, led by central government experts and administrators in a top-down way, and shaped by international adaptation agendas and donor bodies, with emphasis on large physical works (Ahmed et al., 1999;O'Donnell et al., 2013;Alam et al., 2013). It is also horizontally disintegrated; despite a nationally harmonising policy framework, climate adaptation is, in practice, narrowly implemented within 'development' and 'disaster response' sectors (O'Donnell et al., 2013). ...
... In a recent survey, Sylhet Division people perceived that climate variability has significant impacts on their lives by changing access to resources; reporting a substantial decrease in the availability of fresh water, in agricultural productivity, and in the availability of electricity and fuel (Mamun et al., 2013). This echoes other research on Sylhet's vulnerability, looking at how changes in flooding regimes affect haor biodiversity and fisheries (Ali, 1999), how changes in rainfall patterns impact on tea gardens (Ahmed et al., 1999) or how increased flooding ''. . .can cause deaths and injuries and can be followed by infectious diseases (such as diarrhoea) and malnutrition due to crop damage" (IPCC, 2012, p. 252). ...
There are numerous challenges to mobilising high quality knowledge in support of climate adaptation. Urgent adaptive action often has to be taken on the basis of imperfect information, with the risk of maladaptive consequences. These issues of knowledge quality can be particularly acute in vulnerable developing countries like Bangladesh, where there can be less capacity for producing and using climate knowledge. This paper argues that climate change adaptation in places like Bangladesh would benefit from a more self-conscious critical review of the knowledge systems mobilised in support of action, and suggests that ‘knowledge quality assessment’ (KQA) tools can structure this review. It presents a desktop assessment of information used for climate change adaptation projects in Sylhet Division in Bangladesh, steered by the six themes of the ‘Guidance for Uncertainty Assessment and Communication’ KQA tool. The assessment found important differences in approaches to mobilising knowledge, particularly between governmental and non-governmental organisations (NGOs). It demonstrated that problem framing has an impact on project success; projects that adopt a narrow techno-scientific framing can lead to significant adverse side effects. Recognising this some projects are engaging stakeholders in framing adaptation. It found a lack of national policy Guidance on the use of indicators or appraisal of uncertainty, seeing government agencies fall back on their risk-based calculations, and NGOs attempt to identify indicators and uncertainties via community engagement, with mixed success. Moreover, the adaptation knowledge base is relatively disintegrated, despite tentative steps toward its consolidation and appraisal, potentially related to on-going friction impeding vertical communication within government, and horizontal communication between government, NGOs and stakeholders. This all suggests that the Bangladeshi practices at the adaptation science-policy interface can benefit from reflection on KQA criteria; reflection that could concretely be encouraged through revision of the national policy framework.
... Therefore, other variables are considered as negative regression correlation [48]. Figure 1: Environmental effects of global warming [6,7]. ...
... Fumes as a result of greenhouse gas emissions [6,9,10]. ...
About 840 million persons in developing countries live in dimensional poverty with an income line of $1.25 per day, specifically, Sub-Saharan Africa and Southern Asia. It is believed that a green economy boosts an attractive management out of the current economic crises affecting both developed and developing nations for sustainable economic and environmental sustainability. Public transport system in developed and developing countries is a crucial part of the solution to the nation's economic, ecological, and social challenges, targeting a better quality of life. This study is aimed to suggest the possible ways for minimizing global challenges affecting developed and developing countries on the ground of sustainability. The major problem of this study is global economy recession. Economy recession is a worldwide challenge affecting mostly developing countries. In this research, different methodologies are used for the identification of economic challenges currently affecting developing countries. In Nigeria, 54.80% of the people are experiencing critical poverty, hunger, and food insecurity. In Asia, Bangladesh has the highest overall loss of 58.00%, followed by Papua New Guinea and India with the same value of 48.00%; compared to Nigeria which has 50.90%. The study highlights the positive and extensive solutions to the above global challenges. It can be concluded that, these global challenges will be minimized through the suggested recommendations for better improvements of Nigeria.
... For the time dependent medium-scenarios, it was assumed that the concentration of CO 2 would be 400 and 640 ppmv by the years 2010 and 2070, respectively (ADB 1994 ). Model-driven climate change scenarios were generated under the " Climate Change Country Studies Programme " using the Canadian Climate Centre Model (CCCM), the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory equilibrium model (GFDL), and the 1 % transient model of GFDL (i.e., GF01) (Ahmed et al. 1998 ;Asaduzzaman et al. 1997 ;Huq et al. 1998). The outputs of the three GCMs for the 1990 base year were validated against a long-term " climate normal " , as provided in the published report. ...
... The outputs of the three GCMs for the 1990 base year were validated against a long-term " climate normal " , as provided in the published report. Applying the same methodology,Ahmed et al. ( 1998 )reproduced climate change scenarios, which were largely used for a number of subsequent national assessments. Table 12.1 summarizes the results of such scenario development exercises. ...
Nowadays, climate change is one of the greatest threats to human lives and livelihoods in coastal regions all over the world and especially, coastal zone of Bangladesh is facing tremendous challenge from climate change. Furthermore, Climate change and agriculture possess an inverse relationship where climate impacts hamper agri-production. Among other sectors, agriculture is facing deadli- est experiences from climate change related natural disasters, as agriculture is the main livelihood option for the coastal people of Bangladesh. Hence, agricultural adaptation approach is one of the key aspects that are helpful to reduce agricultural crop vulnerability in the coastal zone of Bangladesh. In this connection, considering local level experiences, the main objective of this chapter is to find out suitable and viable adaptation measures that have the potential to help farmers to adapt climate change. These adaptation practices include identification of suitable cropping pat- tern, choice of seed, irrigation water management, crop intensification suitable transplanting and so on. Therefore, the first part of this chapter illustrates the chang- ing pattern of climatic parameters mainly temperature and rainfall in the whole country alone with coastal zone sea level rise and cyclone; and the impacts of cli- matic variability on crop production in the southwestern areas. Then the focus shifts on brief profile of the coastal zone including geographical location and geophysical environment. The last part of this chapter provides recommendation on possible adaptation techniques that have the potential to help farmers to adapt climate change and reduce yield loss in achieving food security.
... In Bangladesh, under climate change scenarios, low flow conditions are likely to aggravate with the possibility of withdrawal of appreciable rainfall in winter (Ahmed et al., 1998a). The southwestern parts of the country will be particularly vulnerable, since the region depends on freshwater flows along the Ganges and its major distributary, Gorai. ...
... Cyclone Shelters, flood shelters should be built in FVAs (Choudhury et al., 2003;GOB, 2005 (Ahmed et al., 1998a, Ahmed, 2005aFaruque and Ali, 2005). ...
... Environmental disasters including salinity, river silting, and floods have grown commonplace in Bangladesh's north and are leading people to suffer unimaginable suffering (Ahmed et al., 1999). As a result, agriculture and related occupations have been severely reduced. ...
Nowadays, flooding is a serious problem in Bangladesh. Excess rainfall, poor drainage patterns, and the inability of the soil to store much water are the common causes of flooding and the Tangail is the most affected area. The purpose of this study is to find out the problems of agricultural patterns due to flooding and farmers socio-economic conditions. The study was conducted at Tangail Sadar, Nagarpur, Delduar, Bhuapur, Kalihati, Dhanbari, Gopalpur, Basail, and Mirzapur Upazilas in Tangail District. The investigation was based on primary data collection, field visits, secondary data sources, and conceptual methods. The study area was measured by interviews, group discussions, and survey methods. Data were collected by questionnaires with a sample size of 100. Flooding's detrimental effects on food grain and agricultural output values point to a threat to small and marginal farming households' ability to secure food. There is a significant change in the occupational pattern in the area due to flooding. Flooding is highly responsible for the changes in livelihood patterns and the economy. The effects of occupational change decrease income levels. About 84% of household members opined that they have changed their housing pattern due to flooding. Most of the land property (90%) was covered by flooding time. Due to flooding and diarrhea, typhoid, skin diseases, and viral diseases, the eye is an alarming health risk for helpless people. About 52% of tube wells were affected due to flooding. This research simply suggests that the development works associated with the flooding should be managed suitably and recommends that an Environmental Impact Assessment is a prerequisite for the development activities.
... The respondents noted that natural calamities like floods, cyclones and tidal surges result in severe socio-economic and environmental damage. Climate change will affect all human and ecological systems and socio-economic development activities (Ahmed et al. 1999 ...
Gradual environmental degradation, climate change and diminishing natural resources created extra pressure to adopt an unconventional approach to support export-driven economic activities. “Our common future—Call for action” concept developed by Brundtland has laid the founding stone of going green. As an overpopulated country, Bangladesh encounters various environmental degradation. The study aimed to identify the challenges Bangladesh faces to go green. It was found that depletion of natural resources, climate change, industrial pollution, traditional waste management, brackish shrimp culture, lack of environmental justice, lack 3R technologies, traditional brick kiln, lack of industrial ecology, greenwashing, lack of public awareness and insufficient green energy are the main challenges to go green. The study recommended several solutions to overcome the bottlenecks.
... [4,5,27] Furthermore, due to its low-lying coastal regions that are frequently exposed to environmental disturbances, the country is one of the most vulnerable to climate change. [1,24,19,25] The coastal zone is densely inhabited in addition to having natural risks that are frequent and of high severity. [20] With an average household size of 5.08 (in the non-coastal zone it is 4.77) and a total of 6,855,555 homes in the coastal zone of Bangladesh. ...
... Bangladesh has always been recognized as one of the worst victims of climate change among the Least Developed Countries (LDC) (Ahmed, Alam, & Rahman, 1999;Ayers & Huq, 2009;Nishat & Mukherjee, 2013). In the Global Climate Index Report 2020, Bangladesh ranked seven among the most climate-vulnerable countries (Eckstein, Künzel, Schäfer, & Winges, 2019). ...
Bangladesh has registered a great success in global climate diplomacy by abandoning its passivity and dependence syndrome as a climate victim. What criteria did Bangladesh fulfil to reckon with as a climate leader? Is such iteration self-proclaimed rhetoric, or can it be supported by theoretical and empirical findings? This article investigates these questions by adopting a leadership framework and scrutinizing Bangladesh's role in climate change adaptation, mitigation, negotiation, and knowledge creation. This article reveals that Bangladesh is now acting as an emerging climate leader in the global climate arena. Bangladesh provides unilateral leadership in climate issues through establishing 'good examples' in inspiring others to follow the pathway by drafting multiple domestic climate policies such as the National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA), Climate Change Trust Fund, Mujib Climate Prosperity Plan, etc. In addition, Bangladesh assists other climate-vulnerable countries by sharing ideas, knowledge, practice and invention in climate change adaptation, mitigation, and resilience and acts as an intellectual leader. Finally, in climate change negotiations, Bangladesh performs as a problem-solving leader on behalf of the Least Developed Countries. Bangladesh's image as a robust actor with a timely response to climate issues turns it into a legitimate voice on global platforms. Therefore, this article concludes that calling Bangladesh a climate leader is not rhetoric as it shows robust performance in several leadership modes to solve this global collective action problem.
... 7 Adaptations may be carried out in response to or in anticipation of changes in conditions to survive. They enhance resiliency and enforce changes to protect against unpleasant impacts (Ahmed et al. 1999). Disaster often occurs naturally; it cannot be stopped by human beings. ...
Bangladesh is struggling with an increasing trend of environmental degradation due to the adverse shocks of climate change. Rajshahi, a northwestern city of Bangladesh, is mostly vulnerable to drought, heat waves, air and water pollution, etc. Although various earlier studies regarding environmental governance are mostly focused on mega cities such as Dhaka, studies on medium-sized cities are less frequently highlighted. Thus, achieving sustainable government through environmental governance in the medium-sized city is an urgent issue for academia and policy makers alike. Local environmental governance plays a significant role in attaining local sustainable development. In Bangladesh, the local government authorities perform a wide range of development activities in the cities. To understand local sustainable development, the environmental impact of these development activities must be explored. The main purpose of this chapter is to investigate the overall status of environmental governance for promoting sustainable development considering environmental issues in development programs. This investigation is empirical research mainly based on primary data as collected from the government officials and field staff of the Rajshahi City Cooperation, and various stakeholders of the city, e.g., residents and civil society, through questionnaire surveys and key informant interviews, including a case study. The central finding indicates that the state of environmental governance for sustainable development at the Rajshahi City Cooperation is functionally poor. Despite having a policy framework for prioritizing environmental issues in the development activities of the city, a huge gap still remains between policies and practices. The findings of the study may assist the policy makers and concerned authorities in formulating policies and taking initiatives to ensure environmental governance to strengthen sustainable development in the urban areas of Bangladesh.
... Consequently, their conveyance capacity is diminished significantly. An increase in monsoon rainfall, therefore, will complicate drainage problem further resulting in increasing duration of floods (Ahmed et al., 1998a). The 'best-estimate' scenario for the year 2030 is that monsoon rainfall could increase by 10 to 15 per cent. ...
Climate change is the biggest global threat of the 21st century. Bangladesh belongs to one of the most vulnerable countries in the world facing the potential negative impacts of climate change. The report is structured around a three-tiered framework. First, recent climate trends and climate change scenarios for Bangladesh are assessed and key sectored impacts are identified and ranked along multiple indicators to establish priorities for adaptation. Second, donor portfolios in Bangladesh are analyzed to examine the proportion of development assistance activities affected by climate risks. A desk analysis of donor strategies as well as national plans is conducted to assess the degree of attention to climate change concerns in development planning and assistance. Third, an in-depth analysis is conducted for northern zones, coastal zones, particularly the droughts prone which have been identified as particularly vulnerable to climate change. Climate change poses significant risks for Bangladesh, yet the core elements of its vulnerability are primarily contextual. Between 30-70 per cent of the country is normally flooded each year. The huge sediment loads brought by three Himalayan rivers, coupled with a negligible flow gradient add to drainage congestion problems and exacerbate the extent of flooding. The societal exposure to such risks is further enhanced by Bangladesh's very high population and population density. Many projected climate change impacts including sea level rise, higher temperatures (mean temperature increases of 1.4°C and 2.4°C are projected by 2050 and 2100 respectively), evapo-transpiration losses, enhanced monsoon precipitation and runoff , potentially reduced dry season precipitation, and increase in cyclone intensity would in fact reinforce many of these baseline stresses that already pose a serious impediment to the economic development of Bangladesh. A subjective ranking of key climate change impacts and vulnerabilities for Bangladesh identifies water and coastal resources as being of the highest priority in terms of certainty, urgency, and severity of impact, as well as the importance of the resources being affected. Likewise, there is no national policy in place yet to comprehensively address climate change risks. At the same time however this report also reveals through a more in-depth analysis that despite this lack of explicit mention, a number of adaptations that climate change might necessitate are indeed already underway in Bangladesh, particularly since the mid-1990s, as part of regular development activity through several government-donor partnerships. A wide array of river dredging projects have been completed to reduce siltation and facilitate better drainage at times of flooding as well as to boost dry season flows to critical areas. However there are remains an ongoing challenge with regard to their durability and sustainability. There are also some examples of development policies and priorities in Bangladesh that might potentially conflict with climate change responses. In particular, policies to encourage tourism and build tourism infrastructure in vulnerable areas of the northern zone, particularly the greater Rangpur region, might need to take into account the projected impacts of climate change to reduce the risk of mal-adaptation. The Bangladesh case study also highlights the importance of the trans-boundary dimension in addressing climate change adaptation. Adaptation to climate change might therefore not just be local but might require cross-boundary institutional arrangements such as the Ganges Water sharing treaty to resolve the current problems of water diversion. Finally, climate change risks should also not distract from aggressively addressing other critical threats, including shrimp farming, illegal felling of trees, poaching of wildlife, and oil pollution from barge traffic, that might already
... Bangladesh is a densely inhabited country and faces an array of environmental and social problems arising from the climate change, environmental contamination, deforestation, poverty, inadequate administration and low level of industrialization (Brammer 2013;Dasgupta et al. 2013;Shaw et al. 2013). Moreover, the country is one of the most susceptible nations to climate change because of its low-lying coastal areas which are exposed to frequent environmental disturbances (Huq et al. 1996;Ahmed et al. 1999;Rasheed 2008;Islam 2011;Rashid et al. 2013;Karan 2015). Along with the high intensity and frequency of natural hazards, the coastal zone is highly populated (Karim 2012). ...
Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries exposed to natural disasters. This paper attempts to analyze the vulnerability of coastal areas of the Chittagong District in the southeastern coast of Bangladesh. This study explores the spatial variations of coastal vulnerability of the study area using three physical variables and four social variables with a spatial analytical method. In this regard, a Physical Vulnerability Index (PVI), and a Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) have been prepared for the research area. Finally, a Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) was constructed within a geographic information system combining both PVI and CVI. The vulnerability indices reveal that the rural areas are more vulnerable to disaster than the urban areas. According to the PVI, SVI, and CVI about 66%, 48%, and 43% areas are highly vulnerable respectively. Despite of data limitations in constructing the PVI and SVI, this research is the first endeavor to apply a composite CVI based on geospatial techniques in the southeastern coast of Bangladesh. The CVI results illustrate that the coasts are the most vulnerable to flooding, storm surges and cyclones. In this study, CVI is presented as a tool to identify areas of vulnerability in the zones of the coastal district Chittagong. The CVI will serve as a practical guideline for policy makers to introduce policies and plans to mitigate the natural hazard-induced disaster impacts on the coastal Bangladesh.
... This includes international cooperation through arrangement such as the Green Climate Fund targeting vulnerable countries (Green Climate Fund, n.d.), and multi-sector and multiscalar domestic cooperation. The government of Bangladesh has already established numerous national bodies to disburse funding to local governmental and NGOs working on climate change, including the Bangladesh Climate Change Trust Fund (BCCTF), Climate Change Trust Funds (CCTF) and Bangladesh Climate Change Resilience Fund (BCCRF) (Ahmed et al., 2015;MoEF, 2009;Ahmed et al., 1999). ...
Climate change is a leading threat to sustainable socioeconomic development in Bangladesh. Adverse impacts of climatic disasters including flash floods, recurrent cyclones and erratic rainfall patterns are already causing hardship for both rural and urban people and are expected to accelerate into the future. The aim of this research note is to identify the core contributing economic sectors to climate change in Bangladesh, and to consider effective mitigation strategies. Following the 5th Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report (2014), in this paper, we argue that comprehensive mitigation measures are required in the energy, transport, buildings, industry and land-use sectors to reduce Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions. Our findings indicate that it is crucial that government and non-government mitigation efforts engage with community knowledge practices in order to most effectively reduce GHG emissions and combat the adverse impacts of climate change.
... Recorded statistics confirm that this area is one of the most vulnerable to climate change (Maplecroft 2010;Ahmed et al. 1999) and is also under stress because of land use change, water scarcity, floods, salinity rise and urbanization (Hossain et al. 2015;ADB 2005). Projections show that the detrimental effects of climate change in the area are likely to continue, as rice and wheat yields decrease due to temperature increases (MoEF Bangladesh 2005). ...
The TEEBAgriFood ‘Scientific and Economic Foundations’ report addresses the core theoretical issues and controversies underpinning the evaluation of the nexus between the agri-food sector, biodiversity and ecosystem services and externalities including human health impacts from agriculture on a global scale. It argues the need for a ‘systems thinking‘ approach, draws out issues related to health, nutrition, equity and livelihoods, presents a Framework for evaluation and describes how it can be applied, and identifies theories and pathways for transformational change.
... Bangladesh is considered one of the most climate-affected countries on Earth [115], experiencing diverse climate stresses (e.g., floods, droughts, storms) with significant implications for its natural resource-dependent communities and households [116]. The nature and impact of these stresses vary across the country because of diverse geographic properties, resource abundances and resource management practices, and therefore, form an array of distinctive contexts. ...
Reviewing both conceptual and empirical studies on climate vulnerability and adaptation assessment, this paper offers an analytical framework to help better understand how context-specific
adaptation strategies could be developed. The framework systematically assembles the Sustainable Rural Livelihoods and the Vulnerability Assessment frameworks to develop its structural and
analytical components. The resulting five-step approach involves: (i) identification of context along with understanding what aspect of vulnerability need to be studied; (ii) assessment of livelihood
exposure to climate impacts involving both community perspectives and meteorological data-based climate forecasts; (iii) characterization of available capital asset usages to help buffer climate sensitivity;
(iv) analysis of formal and informal institutional impetus to enhance adaptive capacity; and (v) evaluation of gaps between context-specific vulnerability and institutional and policy responses to
avoid maladaptive trajectories. Drawing on published research and policy documentation, we apply the framework to the livelihood systems operating in the northeastern floodplain community of
Bangladesh to demonstrate the utility of the approach and then discuss its potential to inform adaptation strategies.
... Bangladesh is considered one of the most climate-affected countries on Earth [115], experiencing diverse climate stresses (e.g., floods, droughts, storms) with significant implications for its natural resource-dependent communities and households [116]. The nature and impact of these stresses vary across the country because of diverse geographic properties, resource abundances and resource management practices, and therefore, form an array of distinctive contexts. ...
Reviewing both conceptual and empirical studies on climate vulnerability and adaptation assessment, this paper offers an analytical framework to help better understand how context-specific adaptation strategies could be developed. The framework systematically assembles the Sustainable Rural Livelihoods and the Vulnerability Assessment frameworks to develop its structural and analytical components. The resulting five-step approach involves: (i) identification of context along with understanding what aspect of vulnerability need to be studied; (ii) assessment of livelihood exposure to climate impacts involving both community perspectives and meteorological data-based climate forecasts; (iii) characterization of available capital asset usages to help buffer climate sensitivity; (iv) analysis of formal and informal institutional impetus to enhance adaptive capacity; and (v) evaluation of gaps between context-specific vulnerability and institutional and policy responses to avoid maladaptive trajectories. Drawing on published research and policy documentation, we apply the framework to the livelihood systems operating in the northeastern floodplain community of Bangladesh to demonstrate the utility of the approach and then discuss its potential to inform adaptation strategies.
... Owing to its geographical location, climate, and topology, Bangladesh is characterized by agro-zones that are highly susceptible to drought, cyclones, flooding, and rising salinity, rendering Bangladesh one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to climate change. Such findings have been extensively supported in the literature [1,2], particularly in relation to sea-level rise and intense climatic events. Indeed, climate change poses extensive economic and physical risk to all societies by negatively impacting a number of factors, such as water resources, agriculture, and terrestrial protection are important measures for the overall development of Bangladesh. ...
Bangladesh remains one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to the effects of climate change. Given the reliance of a large segment of the population on the agricultural sector for both their livelihoods as well as national food security, climate change adaptation in the agricultural sector is crucial for continued national food security and economic growth. Using household data from lowland rice farmers of selected haor areas in Sylhet, the current work presents an analysis of the determinants behind the implementation of different climate change adaptation strategies by lowland rice farmers. The first objective of this study was to explore the extent of awareness of climate change within this population as well as the type of opinions held by lowland rice farmers with respect to climate change. To serve this purpose, a severity index (SI) was developed and subsequently employed to evaluate the perceptions and attitudes of 378 farmers with respect to climate change vulnerability. Respondents were interviewed with respect to climate change related circumstances they faced in their daily lives. Attained SI index values ranged from 69.18% to 93.52%. The SI for the perception “Climate change affects rice production” was measured as 93.52%. Using data collected from the same 378 farmers, a logistic regression was carried out to investigate the impact of socio-economic and institutional factors on adaptation. The results show that credit from non-government organizations is highly statistically significant for adaptation, and that rural market structure also has a positive effect on adaptation. Among the studied factors, credit from non-governmental organizations (NGOs) was found to be the most important factor for adaptation. The results of this work further indicate that marginal farmers would benefit from government (GoB) funded seasonal training activities that cover pertinent information regarding adaptation after flash floods. Additionally, the authors of this piece recommend timely issuance of government-assisted credit during early flash floods to afflicted farmers, as such an initiative can aid farmers in adapting different strategies to mitigate losses and enhance their productivity as well as livelihood.
... 3 Researchers on climate change processes have been discussing a variety of possible physical adaptations to manage such phenomena. In areas with low-lying lands close to the sea, such as in the delta region of Bangladesh, building breakwa-ters and extended embankments in order to prevent flooding, is being considered (Ahmed et al., 1999). Another way to absorb change is in economic and social terms. ...
... Recorded statistics confirm that this area is one of the most vulnerable to climate change (Maplecroft 2010;Ahmed et al. 1999) and is also under stress because of land use change, water scarcity, floods, salinity rise and urbanization (Hossain et al. 2015;ADB 2005). Projections show that the detrimental effects of climate change in the area are likely to continue, as rice and wheat yields decrease due to temperature increases (MoEF Bangladesh 2005). ...
Chapter 2 makes the case for using systems thinking as a guiding perspective for TEEBAgriFood’s development of a comprehensive Evaluation Framework for the eco-agri-food system. Many dimensions of the eco-agri-food system create complex analytical and policy challenges. Systems thinking allows better understanding and forecasting of the outcomes of policy decisions by illuminating how the components of a system are interconnected with one another and how the drivers of change are determined and impacted by feedback loops, delays and non-linear relationships. To establish the building blocks of a theory of change, systems thinking empowers us to move beyond technical analysis and decision-tool toward more integrated approaches that can aid in the forming of a common ground for cultural changes
... Recorded statistics confirm that this area is one of the most vulnerable to climate change (Maplecroft 2010;Ahmed et al. 1999) and is also under stress because of land use change, water scarcity, floods, salinity rise and urbanization (Hossain et al. 2015;ADB 2005). Projections show that the detrimental effects of climate change in the area are likely to continue, as rice and wheat yields decrease due to temperature increases (MoEF Bangladesh 2005). ...
... Recorded statistics confirm that this area is one of the most vulnerable to climate change (Maplecroft 2010;Ahmed et al. 1999) and is also under stress because of land use change, water scarcity, floods, salinity rise and urbanization (Hossain et al. 2015;ADB 2005). Projections show that the detrimental effects of climate change in the area are likely to continue, as rice and wheat yields decrease due to temperature increases (MoEF Bangladesh 2005). ...
Chapter 2 makes the case for using systems thinking as a guiding perspective for TEEBAgriFood’s development of a comprehensive Evaluation Framework for the eco-agri-food system. Many dimensions of the eco-agri-food system create complex analytical and policy challenges. Systems thinking allows better understanding and forecasting of the
outcomes of policy decisions by illuminating how the components of a system are interconnected with one another and how the drivers of change are determined and impacted by feedback loops, delays and non-linear relationships. To establish the building blocks of a theory of change, systems thinking empowers us to move beyond technical analysis and decision-tool toward more integrated approaches that can aid in the forming of a common ground for cultural changes.
... 3 Researchers on climate change processes have been discussing a variety of possible physical adaptations to manage such phenomena. In areas with low-lying lands close to the sea, such as in the delta region of Bangladesh, building breakwa-ters and extended embankments in order to prevent flooding, is being considered (Ahmed et al., 1999). Another way to absorb change is in economic and social terms. ...
... The ecosystem, however, has degraded since the 1980s due to increasing temperatures and salinity levels (in both soil and water), rising sea levels and rising ground water levels (Hossain et al. 2015, Hossain et al. 2016a. Recorded statistics confirm that this area is one of the most vulnerable to climate change (Maplecroft 2010;Ahmed et al. 1999) and is also under stress because of land use change, water scarcity, floods, salinity rise and urbanization (Hossain et al. 2015;ADB 2005). Projections show that the detrimental effects of climate change in the area are likely to continue, as rice and wheat yields decrease due to temperature increases (MoEF Bangladesh 2005). ...
... These include the kind of social, health, educational and financial services available to a rural community, including formal and informal social networks and government programs or policies, such as drought assistance. Due to inherent institutional deficiencies and weaknesses in managerial capacities to cope with the anticipated natural event, it would be extremely difficult for a country to reduce vulnerability to climate change (Ahmed et al., 1999). ...
Climate change remains a major challenge to Homa Bay County whose main sources of livelihoods include fishing and fish trade, fish processing and agricultural production. The objectives of this study were to establish the potential of households to adapt to climate change and to evaluate adaptation strategies to climate change impacts in Homa Bay County, Kenya. The study adopted cross-sectional survey and evaluation research designs. Both qualitative and quantitative data were collected from male and female farmers in Homa Bay County. A sample size of 384 farmers was randomly selected and used in the study. Quantitative data analyses were done using SPSS package. The results reveal that there exist potential for households to adapt to the changing climate in the study area. The major factors influencing adaptation include lack of economic resources; availability and access to technology; levels of information and skills; social infrastructure; role of institutions; and equity in resource allocation. The local community response strategies include tree planting 335 (95%), planting more vegetation 245 (70%), changing and or diversifying crops 153(43.5%), rehabilitation of water storage structures 119 (34%) and paying more attention to weather forecasts. The main barriers to these coping strategies include lack of knowledge 207 (54%), insufficient funds 150 (39%) and lack of tools 27 (7%). The study proposes the use of short, medium and long-term adaptation measures for sustainability. These findings are important in strengthening local adaptation strategies and developing suitable policy frameworks to address the issue of resource mobilization in Homa Bay County.
... 2005; BBS, 2010). Recorded statistics confirm that this area is one of the most vulnerable to climate change (Maplecroft, 2010;Ahmed et al., 1999) and is also under stress because of land use change, water scarcity, floods, salinity rise and urbanization (Hossain et al., 2015;ADB, 2005). Projections show that the detrimental effects of climate change in the area are likely to continue, as rice and wheat yields decrease due to temperature increases (MoEF, 2005). ...
This study makes a first attempt to operationalize the safe operating space concept at a regional scale by considering the complex dynamics (e.g. non-linearity, feedbacks, and interactions) within a systems dynamic model (SD). We employ the model to explore eight ‘what if’ scenarios based on well-known challenges (e.g. climate change) and current policy debates (e.g. subsidy withdrawal). The findings show that the social-ecological system in the Bangladesh delta may move beyond a safe operating space when a withdrawal of a 50% subsidy for agriculture is combined with the effects of a 2 °C temperature increase and sea level rise. Further reductions in upstream river discharge in the Ganges would push the system towards a dangerous zone once a 3.5 °C temperature increase was reached. The social-ecological system in Bangladesh delta may be operated within a safe space by: 1) managing feedback (e.g. by reducing production costs) and the slow biophysical variables (e.g. temperature, rainfall) to increase the long-term resilience, 2) negotiating for transboundary water resources, and 3) revising global policies (e.g. withdrawal of subsidy) that negatively impact at regional scales. This study demonstrates how the concepts of tipping points, limits to adaptations, and boundaries for sustainable development may be defined in real world social-ecological systems.
... Only in Jessore and Satkhira, the waterlogged areas increased from 12,687 ha in 2003 to 22,389 ha in 2008 while number of people affected rose from 115,200 to 865,789, depicting a precarious condition (Rahman and Rahman, 2011). As a whole it has affected nearly one million people and has caused large-scale damages to national economy, especially crops, employment and livelihoods (Rahman, 1995;Ahmed et al., 1998). Bangladesh experiences various types of natural calamities. ...
Waterlogging is a severe problem in the southwestern coastal region of Bangladesh. This research aims at exploring the severity of waterlogging problems and the practices of as well as perceptions about adaptation in
the polders situated in Khulna, Bangladesh. A survey of the households was conducted. The study finds that community people spontaneously participate in traditional adaptation methods; however, they hardly realize
their own contributions toward the adaptation practices. A considerable section of the community is not aware about the institutional initiatives addressing waterlogging problem. Although the technical aspects of waterlogging and polder management are essential, the people living inside the polder perceive that the institutional and management aspects are vitally important. Post-facto nature of adaptation interventions in the
region may lead to unusual losses and damages, which could be minimized through a pre-facto well mix of technology and management.
p>Increasingly rapid environmental changes since the middle of the 20th century pose a significant challenge for vulnerable human populations. North American Native people from the Northwest Coast, as many other indigenous populations around the globe, have conceived landscapes as sentient, and capable of responding to human action. The consequent “social responsibility” taken for landscape is explored in the context of vulnerability to rapid environmental change. The basis for respect that underlies this sense of responsibility, and its significance for addressing human vulnerability to nature’s agency, through more adequate practices of mitigation and adaptation, is discussed. It is concluded that we face an imperative to reconceive the agency of natural phenomena.
</p
For instance, climate change has become an overwhelming
concern worldwide. One million deaths occur annually due
to problems with climate change, making it the most
dangerous nation in Asia, which makes this matter an
international concern. This study examines the impact of
climate change on immigration, food security, and
healthcare. The governmental efforts towards countering
climate change in Bangladesh: research Therefore, this
report is able to contribute to the campaigns of Bangladesh
in international forums against climate change. Climate
change affects every country on Earth, and Bangladesh is
struggling with it. This is due to the politics involved in the
global climate negotiations as well as the extensive
investment needed to push onward. Lastly, this study
provides several solutions on how they can solve this big
hazard in Bangladesh and around the world. Lastly, this
study provides several solutions to solve this important risk
for Bangladesh as well as the world at large.
For instance, climate change has become an overwhelming concern worldwide. One million deaths occur annually due to problems with climate change, making it the most dangerous nation in Asia, which makes this matter an international concern. This study examines the impact of climate change on immigration, food security, and healthcare. The governmental efforts towards countering climate change in Bangladesh: research Therefore, this report is able to contribute to the campaigns of Bangladesh in international forums against climate change. Climate change affects every country on Earth, and Bangladesh is struggling with it. This is due to the politics involved in the global climate negotiations as well as the extensive investment needed to push onward. Lastly, this study provides several solutions on how they can solve this big hazard in Bangladesh and around the world. Lastly, this study provides several solutions to solve this important risk for Bangladesh as well as the world at large.
Effective mitigation and adaptation methods are critical for addressing multi-hazards in various parts of the world as a result of changing climate occurrences. Basically, coastal areas around the world have been proven to be particularly sensitive and at risk as a result of recent climate change, forcing people to relocate in order to survive. In the previous 2–3 years, cyclones such as Fani, Bulbul, Amphan, and Yass have wreaked havoc on eastern India's coastal region. The aim of this study is to look into the coastal population of Indian Sundarban's perceptions of hazard and their solutions for dealing with the growing threat of hazard. To measure perceptions of multi-hazard impact, a survey of 850 rural households was conducted in four different geographical regions (i.e. island, coastal, riverine, and inland). Several forms of coping techniques have been discovered, and the results differ from one geographical place to the next, demonstrating the different impact of risks in the studied area. It is obvious from the analysis that, with the exception of island households, other areas use a very limited number of adaptation mechanisms. When it comes to the amount of coping strategies used, it has been discovered that most inhabitants outside of islands use 1–3 techniques (nearly 56%) using food and finance as safeguard, but island dwellers use 4–6 strategies (nearly 78%) in form of asset related issues. Reducing the amount of food consumed, obtaining financing from various organizations, and migrating are some of the primary tactics used in the study region to combat the negative effects of climate change-related multi-hazards.
Appraisal of the long‐term precipitation trends and variability is crucial for sustainable water resources management. This research intended to evaluate Bangladesh's monthly, seasonal, and annual spatiotemporal rainfall variability using 40 global climate models for two representative concentration pathways (RCPs), RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Statistical downscaling climate model (SimCLIM) was used for downscaling and ensemble projection of rainfall in near (2011–2040), middle (2041–2070), and far (2071–2100) futures. Modified Mann–Kendall test was applied to detect future rainfall trends. The results revealed a significant increasing trend in rainfall in near and middle futures for RCP4.5 and in all three future periods for RCP8.5 at all meteorological stations of Bangladesh during significant rainfall months (May–October). The results also showed a decreasing trend in rainfall in dry months (December–January) at many stations. The highest increase in rainfall was projected in June at a rate of 0.10–1.11 mm·year⁻¹ for RCP4.5 and 3.34–4.98 mm·year⁻¹ for RCP8.5 in different future periods. Monsoon rainfall showed the highest increase, and winter rainfall the lowest increase for all RCPs and future periods. The increase in annual precipitation over Bangladesh was projected 2.76–5.98% in three future periods for RCP4.5 and 6.98–26.44% for RCP8.5. These outcomes indicate a possible increase in floods severity and frequency in Bangladesh in the future.
Climate change is evident with the extreme climatic indices changing all over the world. Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change. The patterns of climatic hazards here are changing with time. Such changes inevitably affect the life and livelihood of people. Focusing on this background, this study was conducted to assess the spatial variability of climatic multi-hazards in Bangladesh in relation to the extreme climate indices. To achieve the objective of this study, hydro-climatic data for the past 31 years (1990–2020) were collected from 27 stations of the Bangladesh Meteorological Department. Fifteen climate indices were calculated using the “RClimDex” software. The principle component analysis was used for assigning weightage to the selected indices as well as for the multi-hazard assessment. Using the indices, multi-hazard maps were prepared for the extreme rainfall, extreme temperature, and combined hazard (both rainfall and temperature). The multi-hazard maps identified the northeastern and southeastern parts of Bangladesh as high rainfall affected area, while the southwestern parts were revealed to be exposed to high temperature related hazards. The combined hazard map revealed most of the northern and southern region of the country to be in the “High” or “Moderate” extreme climate hazard zone categories. The findings are particularly alarming as the northern region has a high percentage of net cropped area falling in the high climate hazard zone. The findings of this study can guide the policy makers and academics from national to local level to develop and prioritize climate resilient programs based on the location-specific climatic hazards.
Bangladesh is a riverine country that is geographically located in a disaster-prone area where flooding is a very common. Riverine islands are extremely vulnerable to floods and are where char dwellers suffer the most. Flooding has short-term and long-term impacts on their livelihoods, earnings, and lifestyles. Therefore, this chapter analyzes the impacts of climate change on river floods and scrutinizes the adaptation techniques of char dwellers to river floods. The study follows mixed methods of research, using both qualitative and quantitative methodology, with a convenient sampling method. This study also correlates social capital theory with the objectives of the research. In the last 50 years, Bangladesh monsoon rainfall has increased by 2.65 millimeters per year, and the monthly average river discharge of Brahmaputra has increased by about 8%. Furthermore, the temperature of the country is likely to increase by 1.4–1.6 °C by 2050. These changing patterns of rainfall, river discharge, and temperature show the possible impacts of climate change and accelerate the intensity and frequency of river floods. Approximately 58% of char dwellers are considered to be seasonal migrants. To cope up with floods, char dwellers depend on the availability of their resources, practicing individual adaptation strategies, making soil mounds to protect fruits and vegetables, designing flood-tolerant paddy, and cultivating fast-growing fish (carp, tilapia). They are receiving economic and logistical support from the concerned authorities. Moreover, they collaborate socially when encountering floods. The existing bonding, bridging, and linking mean that char dwellers cooperate more with their neighbors than with administration, donors, and other stakeholders. The study suggests that social capital is a new dimension since the 1970s to cope with any kind of natural disaster, including floods.
In Bangladesh, South Western (SW) coastal area is the most vulnerable due to its geo-morphological characteristics and socio-economic conditions. Consequently, this study aims at find out the sustainable adaptation practices to climate change impacts through a series of field study along with questionnaire survey and reviewing the secondary literature. The study shows that near about 50 adaptation practices are exercised in SW coastal area of Bangladesh. Among these, growing local rice variety, rainwater harvesting, directly use of pond water through proper pond management, raising plinth, lowering use roof etc. are the more sustainable adaptation practices. On the other hand, homestead gardening, dyke nursery, cropping on raised mound, school cum cyclone shelter, purification of pond water trough traditional knowledge are the moderately popular and sustainable adaptation practices in terms of social, economic and environmental aspects. Furthermore, shrimp cultivation at homestead, fish-vegetables combined cultivation, purification of pond water through govt. supported filter, pond filter, bamboo made piling house etc. are the less sustainable one.
In world climate science, Bangladesh is considered a poster child of vulnerability. The primary stressors that affect the vulnerability of the Bangladeshi population include sea-level rise, biodiversity degradation, saltwater intrusion, desertification, social exclusion, unstable political conditions, and weak governance systems. Governance is an important non-climatic stressor that has not received sufficient attention. Within this framework, this paper explores the impacts of bribery and extortion on livelihoods and adaptive capacity in the face of climate change and argues that corruption significantly reduces the ability to respond to climatic stressors. Findings draw attention to this critical issue in climate change adaptation and international development in general, particularly for developing countries. © 2018 Springer Science+Business Media B.V., part of Springer Nature
p>As a consequence of river bank erosion, every year a huge number of people displace from their native houses to some other areas in Sirajganj district. This study was conducted to measure the economic losses and also assess the status of food security of the displaced people of Sirajganj by using primary data collected from respondents of four Upazilla (sub-district) of Sirajganj, namely, Shahjadpur, Kazipur, Belkuchi, and Sirajganj Sadar. In evaluating the food security, direct calorie intake (DCI) and protein intake method had been applied. The study has shown that 58.3% and 15% of the total respondents are found to be food secure on the basis of calorie and protein intake respectively. In addition of assessing food security, the single-level binary logistic regression model and also multinomial logistic regression were fitted to find out the important determinants of food security of the displaced people living in Sirajganj and also in the other regions of Bangladesh where people shift their houses to other places because of river erosion. The level of income was found as positively significant, however, the age of the family head and the family size were found as negatively significant determinant of the food security both on the basis of calorie and protein intake. The other significant determinants that had been identified are- duration after shifting, losses due to shifting, and education of the family head. The study has recommended some actions to the government, concerned stakeholders, GOs or NGOs and others to ensure the food security of the displaced people. They are- preventing river erosion, increasing level of education, controlling of the population, initiating improved agricultural farming, ensuring vocational training for the affected people, encouraging women empowerment et cetera.
J. Bangladesh Agril. Univ. 14(2): 191-199, December 2016</p
Outcomes of the DAAD/UNU-EHS International PhD Workshop on Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation in Context of South and Southeast Asia, 23 – 25 November 2009, Yogyakarta, Indonesia
http://collections.unu.edu/view/UNU:1881#viewAttachments
This paper examines the vulnerabilities of agriculture in coastal regions of Bangladesh to the different adverse effects of sea level rise induced hazards, and also identifies option for future agricultural adaptations. It reveals that due to sea level rise, agriculture of the study area has already experienced noticeable adverse impacts especially in terms of area of inundation, salinity intrusion and reduction in crop production. The study is conducted based on both primary and secondary data. A total 303 out of 1200 respondents from three coastal villages were randomly interviewed. Samples are drawn proportionately from three villages. Descriptive and inferential statistics and logistic regression have been done to analysis data. The study find that the agricultural land, production of crops, local crop varieties, income and employment facilities of the farmers is highly vulnerable to various SLR induced hazards. Selection of various adaptive options such as control of saline water intrusion into agricultural land, coastal afforestation, cultivation of saline tolerant crops, homestead and floating gardening, embankment cropping and increase of income through alternative livelihoods are emerging need for sustainable coastal agricultural development. Therefore, this paper argues that further development and implementation of such adaptive measures could help to minimize vulnerabilities of agriculture in the long run.
In 2007, Percy Schmeiser, an elderly farmer from Saskatchewan, Canada, unknowingly harvested a crop of canola that contained a herbicide-resistant gene patented by one of the world’s largest agricultural biotechnology companies, Monsanto.1 Schmeiser claimed that the canola had sprouted from seeds that had blown off passing trucks or spread from adjacent fields and mistakenly taken root on his farm — meaning he was not liable for patent infringement. Monsanto disagreed, and the case went all the way to the Canadian Supreme court, which reached a “bizarre” 5–4 decision that Schmeiser had infringed upon Monsanto’s patents, but was not liable for any damages.2
One of the central dilemmas in politics, public policy, and economics is that markets “work” only at distributing certain types of goods. They tend to be efficient at distributing private goods such as bicycles or hamburgers — where property rights can be completely defined and protected, where owners can exclude others from access, and where property rights can be transferred or sold1 — but less effective at common pool resources such as fish in the high seas or grasslands for grazing, which require agreed-upon rules or sanctions. Unfettered economic markets are almost always completely ineffective at distributing these common pool resources. Designing workable, viable management of common pool resources is “tremendously difficult,” since in many cases success depends upon creating an “inverse commons” where material scarcity is not a concern and each additional user increases value rather than diminishes it.2
Environmental studies professor David W. Orr once wrote about a remarkable experiment involving two different groups of kittens, raised in rooms that differed only in the color of their walls.1 One group was raised in a room painted with horizontal lines, the other with vertical lines. After several weeks, the kittens were moved from one room to the other. Despite the fact that both environments were identical with the exception of the lines on the walls, both groups suffered severe adjustment problems, including higher mortality rates. The implications of the study concerning perception and adaptability to the environment are interesting, but also telling in a human context. Orr’s research prompts us to ask: if we are forced to adapt to much more serious situations, will humans experience similar degrees of coping difficulties? More importantly, if the political economy aspects we identify in this book are correct, will some malevolent actors create disorientation by design, utilizing chaos and confusion to hide the underlying processes endowing them with wealth and power?
Various regions of South Asia experience high climate variability, both spatially and temporally. The hydrological regime of major parts of the region is predominantly influenced by monsoon, which brings 70-80% of total annual rainfall during early June to September. The post-monsoon months become dry and there is hardly any appreciable rainfall during winter months (December to February).
Nowadays, climate change is one of the greatest threats to human lives and livelihoods in coastal regions all over the world and especially, coastal zone of Bangladesh is facing tremendous challenge from climate change. Furthermore, Climate change and agriculture possess an inverse relationship where climate impacts hamper agri-production. Among other sectors, agriculture is facing deadliest experiences from climate change related natural disasters, as agriculture is the main livelihood option for the coastal people of Bangladesh. Hence, agricultural adaptation approach is one of the key aspects that are helpful to reduce agricultural crop vulnerability in the coastal zone of Bangladesh. In this connection, considering local level experiences, the main objective of this chapter is to find out suitable and viable adaptation measures that have the potential to help farmers to adapt climate change. These adaptation practices include identification of suitable cropping pattern, choice of seed, irrigation water management, crop intensification suitable transplanting and so on. Therefore, the first part of this chapter illustrates the changing pattern of climatic parameters mainly temperature and rainfall in the whole country alone with coastal zone sea level rise and cyclone; and the impacts of climatic variability on crop production in the southwestern areas. Then the focus shifts on brief profile of the coastal zone including geographical location and geophysical environment. The last part of this chapter provides recommendation on possible adaptation techniques that have the potential to help farmers to adapt climate change and reduce yield loss in achieving food security.
This chapter discusses the opportunities and constraints involved in implementing adaptation measures under real-world conditions. Based on an assessment of the participatory process that cornerstoned the elaboration of the Regional Climate Change Adaptation Plan for Santiago de Chile, it examines the execution of the 14 measures contained in the Plan. The discussion highlights the challenges along capacities and competences, and takes as its starting point a review of the literature, scientific assumptions and an evaluation by the actors who were part of the particpatory process described in Chap. 9. Although it will remain hypothetical until such time as the measures have been implemented under real-world conditions, the discussion helps to fill the general knowledge gap on the implementation of climate change adaptation measures.
In this paper, temperature and rainfall data series were analysed from 34 meteorological stations distributed throughout Bangladesh over a 40-year period (1971 to 2010) in order to evaluate the magnitude of these changes statistically and spatially. Linear regression, coefficient of variation, inverse distance weighted interpolation techniques and geographical information systems were performed to analyse the trends, variability and spatial patterns of temperature and rainfall. Autoregressive integrated moving average time series model was used to simulate the temperature and rainfall data. The results confirm a particularly strong and recent climate change in Bangladesh with a 0.20 °C per decade upward trend of mean temperature. The highest upward trend in minimum temperature (range of 0.80–2.4 °C) was observed in the northern, northwestern, northeastern, central and central southern parts while greatest warming in the maximum temperature (range of 1.20–2.48 °C) was found in the southern, southeastern and northeastern parts during 1971–2010. An upward trend of annual rainfall (+7.13 mm per year) and downward pre-monsoon (−0.75 mm per year) and post-monsoon rainfall (−0.55 mm per year) trends were observed during this period. Rainfall was erratic in pre-monsoon season and even more so during the post-monsoon season (variability of 44.84 and 85.25 % per year, respectively). The mean forecasted temperature exhibited an increase of 0.018 °C per year in 2011–2020, and if this trend continues, this would lead to approximately 1.0 °C warmer temperatures in Bangladesh by 2020, compared to that of 1971. A greater rise is projected for the mean minimum (0.20 °C) than the mean maximum (0.16 °C) temperature. Annual rainfall is projected to decline 153 mm from 2011 to 2020, and a drying condition will persist in the northwestern, western and southwestern parts of the country during the pre- and post-monsoonal seasons.
Although the "greenhouse effect" and "global climate change" have been the subjects of scientific scrutiny for many decades, only recently have they received widespread public attention. Two major events helped generate this attention. First, in 1990 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published its findings on the science, impacts and policy implications of climate change. The findings of the IPCC, prepared and reviewed extensively by the world's leading experts in the field, confirmed that the increasing atmospheric concentrations of "greenhouse" gases, such as carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and the chlorofluorocarbons, could cause the world to warm and sea level to rise. Second, in 1992 the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) inRio de Janeiro focussed the attention of the world's national governments, as well as organisations and individuals outside the governments, on the threat of global climate change. The Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), signed by nations at UNCED, reflects both the concern about the effects of climate change and the urgent need for action to prevent or reduce its potential impacts, particularly with respect to the vulnerable developing countries of the world. Bangladesh ratified the FCCC on 15 April 1994. The countries that have signed and ratified the FCCC are obligated to report to the Conference of the Parties (CoP) to the Convention on a number of inter related issues.
The loss of foodgrain production due to soil salinity intrusion in the coastal districts was estimated under climate change scenarios. A computer model was developed that provided with a genesis of soil salinity build-up in the relatively drier months of the crop calendar. The time-series soil salinity database was compared with the field-level observations and the model was validated. It was found that the soil salinity generally increases rapidly in the winter months and reaches maximum values in April.
The time-series database was then correlated with the time specific events in the crop calendar for two crops, Aman and Aus rice, to estimate the damage in production due to. adverse effects of salinity. It was found that the impacts of soil salinity would be manifold under the climate change scenarios. It was also found that the estimated crop loss under the severe climate change scenario would be the maximum. Furthermore, more areas would become severely affected by soil salinity and thereby the affected lands would become unsuitable for a number of crops. As a result, the food security of the country would be threatened under climate change.
The modelling was extended to examine crop loss considering adaptation in conjunction with the climate change scenarios. The results show that substantial improvement might be achieved by adapting to increased soil salinity, yet the projected loss would be significant.
Land loss due to beach erosion caused by sea level rise in the eastern coastline of Bangladesh was calculated by using Brunn’s formula. Estimation was done for three distinct areas: a) Bakkhali river valley b) Southern beach plain c) Nilla-Teknaf plain. In addition Moheskhali channel area was also studied. The slope of this coastline was measured by conducting a survey at 21 different points along north-eastern coast considering coastline profile taken at 900 angle with respect to sea. These points were interpolated to define the coastline profile. Real world geographical location of each point was captured using Geographical Positioning System (GPS) and subsequently the shoreline profile was coupled with a GIS system.
Bathymetric information was drawn from admiralty charts from which height (depth of water) and width of the continental shelf were determined. Brunn’s formula gave the values for shoreline recession for 30 and 75 cm sea level rise for the year 2030 and 75, respectively.
It was found that about 5,800 ha area along the shoreline would be lost in 2030, while 11,200 ha would be recessed in 2075. It was also found that about 13,750 and 252,000 tons of food grain production would be lost in 2030 and 2075, respectively, due to shoreline erosion.
In 1966, the governments of the United States and Bangladesh decided to initiate a comprehensive study on climate change in Bangladesh. This study was carried out over 1996 and 1997 by a consortium of public and non-governmental research organizations, along with the relevant administrative arms of the government. The aim of this volume is to provide access to the results of this study by the public. The book comprises nine chapters, including an overview, looking at the following aspects of the study: development of climate change scenarios with general circulation models; water resources vulnerability to climate change; climate change vulnerability of crop agriculture; assessment of food grain production loss due to climate induced soil salinity, beach erosion on the eastern coastline of Bangladesh; vulnerability of forest ecosystems to climate change; fish resources vulnerability and adaptation to climate change, and future outlooks on adaptation to a changing climate in Bangladesh.
The Government of Bangladesh, a signatory to the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), sought to support the international community in understanding vulnerability to climate change and sea level rise and, at the same time, to formulate ways to mitigate the hazards and find modalities in developing institutions to deal with coastal zones. A pilot study of vulnerability was commissioned under the auspices of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Coastal Zone Management Subgroup (CZMS). One of the objectives of the pilot study was to develop tools and techniques for use by the Government of Bangladesh for future coastal resource planning and management. Another objective was to identify both the policies and the technical capacity that will be needed within Bangladesh in order to deal with climate change related issues and problems on an ongoing basis.
Vulnerability of water resources considered changes in flooding conditions due to combination of increased discharge of river water during monsoon period and sea level rise for the two projection years, 2030 and 2075. MIKE11, a fixed bed hydrodynamic model, was used for the estimation of changes in river water level which was coupled with Geographic Information System (GIS) for the estimation of extent of flooding. The climatic parameters for the baseyear 1990 was obtained from secondary sources and the changes of climatic parameters for the two projection years were obtained from the General Circulation Model (GCM) output. Values of these parameters were taken as input for MIKE11 model runs. Discharge values for 8 upstream boundary stations were calculated from a general relationship between changes in rainfall and runoff. The MIKE11 model also includes other parameters under development scenario that considered embanking the major rivers. Model runs gave water level values for over 4,000 output stations along the rivers all over the country except Chittagong and Chittagong Hill Tracts area. These water levels were interpolated by using GIS techniques to generate water depth spatial database for the study area. Water depth spatial database for each of the projection years was compared with that of the baseyear to find change in water depth. These values were then superimposed on “land type database” to estimate extent of flooding in terms of water depth. A combination of development and climate change scenarios revealed that the Lower Ganges and Surma floodplains would become more vulnerable compared to the rest of the study area. On the other hand, the north-central region would become flood free due to embankment in the major rivers.
In Bangladesh, vulnerability and adaptation assessments are being performed for the following sectors: agriculture, water resources, and coastal resources. More limited assessments are also being performed for the fisheries and forestry sectors. These sectoral analyses are in the preliminary stages. This chapter introduces the climate change issues in the country, and the four types of climate change scenarios chosen for the vulnerability analyses: climate change, economic development, sea level rise, and watershed development. Preliminary analysis indicated that for Bangladesh the most affected important sector in terms of climate change effects is the water resources sector because of because possible effects include devastating floods, severe droughts, and changes in salinity levels in the surface and groundwater systems as well as in soil. Further, the vulnerability of the water resources sector would affect the vulnerability of the agriculture production, coastal resources, forestry, and livestock sectors.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Technical Guidelines for Assessing Impacts of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations represent an initial attempt to integrate methods for formulating adaptation into a framework for assessing the impacts of climate change. These Technical Guidelines distinguish between two adaptation responses: autonomous adjustments and adaptation strategies. Autonomous adjustments are natural or spontaneous adjustments that will probably occur in response to climate change. Three groups are distinguished: (1) in-built adjustments, (2) routine adjustments, and (3) tactical adjustments. Adaptation strategies are responses to climate change that require deliberate policy decisions, i.e., responses exogenous to a system. The Technical Guidelines identify seven main steps for the assessment of adaptation strategies. The methodologies outlined in each step embrace assessments conducted across a wide range of environments, economies, and societies subject to climate change.
A simulation study was conducted to assess the vulnerability of foodgrain production due to climate change in Bangladesh. Two general circulation models were used for development of climate scenarios. The experiments considered impact on three high yielding rice varieties and one high yielding wheat variety. Sensitivity to changes in temperature, moisture regime and carbon-di-oxide fertilisation was analysed against the baseline climate condition.
The GFDL model predicted about 17 per cent decline in overall rice production and as high as 61 per cent decline in wheat production compared to the baseline situation. The highest impact would be on wheat followed by Aus variety. CCCM model predicted a significant, but much reduced shortfall in foodgrain production.
It was found that increase in 4°C temperature would have severe impact on foodgrain production, especially for wheat production. On the other hand, carbondi-oxide fertilisation would facilitate foodgrain production. A rise in temperature cause significant decrease in production, some 28 and 68 per cent for rice and wheat, respectively. On the other hand, doubling of atmospheric concentration of CO2 in combination with a similar rise in temperature would result into an overall 20 per cent rise in rice production and 31 per cent decline in wheat production. It was found that Boro rice would enjoy good harvest under severe climate change scenario.
The apparent increase in yield of Boro and other crops might be constrained by moisture stress. A 60 per cent moisture stress on top of other effects might cause as high as 32 per cent decline in Boro yield, instead of having an overall 20 per cent net increase. It is feared that moisture stress would be more intense during the dry season, which might force the Bangladeshi farmers to reduce the area for Boro cultivation. Shortfall in foodgrain production would severely threaten food security of the poverty ridden country.
Limitations associated with General Circulation Models, particularly in societal impact assessment and local and regional climate change policies, have led some researchers to seek alternative methods for assessing the potential impacts of climate change. One of these methods, forecasting by analogy (FBA), is based on the premise that past responses to extreme climate-related events provide a first approximation of how society might respond to the effects of climate change. Since its development and initial application in 1987, FBA has been used to assess climate-related impacts in various economic sectors and ecosystems. The potential value and use of FBA in impact assessment, the use of analogs in the physical sciences, and the shortcomings and potential problems associated with the approach are discussed. Some cases in which the FBA approach was applied to marine fisheries to assess the impacts of climate change and climate variability are studied.
The vulnerability to climate change for different sectors was assessed based on climate scenarios for two projection years 2030 and 2075. These climate scenarios were developed by using General Circulation Model. Models were run to find correlation with the observed time-series data for 10 particular points distributed all over the country both for base and projection years. The model estimated monthly average rate of change in temperature and precipitation for those locations were superimposed on the observed time-series monthly average data to obtain data for the projection years.
The results revealed that the average increase in temperature would be 1.3°C and 2.6°C for the years 2030 and 2070, respectively. It was found that there would be a seasonal variation in changed temperature: 1.4°C change in the winter and 0.7°C in the monsoon months in 2030. For 2070 the variation would be 2.1°C and 1.7°C for winter and monsoon, respectively. For precipitation it was found that the winter precipitation would decrease at a negligible rate in 2030, while in 2075 there would not be any appreciable rainfall in winter. On the other hand, monsoon precipitation would increase at a rate of 12 per cent and 27 per cent for the two projection years, respectively.
It was found that there would be excessive rainfall in the monsoon causing flooding and very little to no rainfall in the winter forcing drought. It was also found that there would be drastic changes in evaporation in both winter and monsoon seasons in the projection year 2075. It was inferred from the GCM output that moderate changes regarding climate parameters would take place for the projection year 2030, while for the projection year 2075 severe changes would occur.
The paper explores the distinction between climate and climate change. Adaptation to current climate variability has been proposed as an additional way to approach adaptation to long-term climate change. In effect improved adaptation to current climate is a step in preparation for longer term climate change. International programs of research and assessment are separately organized to deal with natural disasters and climate change. There is no scientific concensus so far, that extreme events have changed in frequency on a world-wide basis, although some regional changes have occured. It is extremely unlikely that significant shifts in the means of weather distrbutions will take place without shifts in the tails. In some situations it may make more sense to focus on adaptation to extreme events and the tails of distributions. In other circumstances adaptation to the norms is the logical focus. The relationship between normal climate and climate change is examined in terms of single and complex variables and phenomena. It is proposed that the research communities studying adaptation to extreme events and adaptation to climate change work more closely together, perhaps in a newly organized joint research program.
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