Should We Rely on Intelligence Cycle?

Abstract

Intelligence cycle is a systematic process which is usually applied in order to obtain intelligence from raw data. Today the world has been experiencing dazzling changes on many fields as well as technology. With the help of the new emerging technologies the data that have to be handled for intelligence is much more than ever. In addition to new technological contributions, there are discussions about intelligence cycle whether it’s being out-dated and old fashioned. Intelligence cycle was mainly prepared due Soviet threat. After the collapse of Soviet Union, concept of security has shifted drastically. And consequently, people have started to question its validity. The biggest question is about the intelligence cycle model. Does the process meet today’s needs? If not so what should be done in order to attain more effective intelligence? Therefore, this paper deals with the knowledge hierarchy and intelligence cycle with view to state viability of intelligence cycle in today’s condition and moreover examines new approaches to intelligence development process.

Full text

Journal of Military and Information Science
Corresponding author: Bahadır Aydın , Vol. 3(3)
93
Aydın, B. and Özleblebici, Z.,(2015). Should We Rely on Intelligence Cycle?, Journal of Military and Information Science,
Vol3(3),93-99.
Special Issue,
International Conference on Military and Security Studies,ICMSS-2015
Report
Should We Rely on Intelligence Cycle?
B.Aydin*
‡
, Z.Ozleblebici **
* Turkish Army War College, baydin@kha.edu.tr.
** Turkish Army War College, Operations and Intelligence Department, zozleblebici@gmail.com
‡ Corresponding Author; Address: Turkish Army War College, Yenilevent, Istanbul; Tel: +90 507 148 72 02, e-mail:
badir82@hotmail.com
Abstract- Intelligence cycle is a systematic process which is usually applied in order to obtain intelligence from raw data.
Today the world has been experiencing dazzling changes on many fields as well as technology. With the help of the new
emerging technologies the data that have to be handled for intelligence is much more than ever. In addition to new
technological contributions, there are discussions about intelligence cycle whether it’s being out-dated and old fashioned.
Intelligence cycle was mainly prepared due Soviet threat. After the collapse of Soviet Union, concept of security has shifted
drastically. And consequently, people have started to question its validity. The biggest question is about the intelligence cycle
model. Does the process meet today’s needs? If not so what should be done in order to attain more effective intelligence?
Therefore, this paper deals with the knowledge hierarchy and intelligence cycle with view to state viability of intelligence
cycle in today’s condition and moreover examines new approaches to intelligence development process.
Keywords- Intelligence; Intelligence Cycle; Raw Data; DIKIW pyramid.
1. Introduction
Intelligence is crucial type of knowledge that has to
be applied in order to be successful in decision making
process. It may be widely used in many fields as well
as organizations or the military. One has to remember
that there is a big correlation between data, intelligence
and knowledge, so DIKIW (Data, Information,
Knowledge, Intelligence and Wisdom) pyramid has
been defined for comprehending the relationship
among them. Intelligence contains threats, risks as well
as success. In this way it is needed to establish
connection between events for reaching desired end.
The information age which was defined during the
late 1980s has changed our perception far beyond
guessed (Başaran, 2014). This shift has happened in a
fast manner that it is difficult to follow the information
flow. The transition of information has provided to
obtain it easily and it also provided access to everyone
(Rathmell, 2002). But the widespread use of data have
led difficulties, accelerating changes and growing
complexity. This complexity makes it difficult to
acquire precise intelligence. So decision makers,
especially for the military purpose (Goztepe and
Kahraman, 2015), apply intelligence cycle to obtain
intelligence. Intelligence cycle is applied for obtaining
intelligence from raw data. This cycle generally
consists of collection, evaluation, analysis and
dissemination. Today, there are discussions about the
method of intelligence cycle. The discussions have
been continued about intelligence cycle for a long time.
We can categorize the discussions in two topics;
one is about it is being process based and the other is its
being outdated. In our opinion all discussions are
correct and onsite decision making experts.
2. Intelligence Within DIKIW Hierarchy
Generally intelligence is necessary for decision-
makers and for the leaders of groups. Main concern of
intelligence is applying it in the right time and right

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Corresponding author: Bahadır Aydın , Vol. 3(3)
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Aydın, B. and Özleblebici, Z.,(2015). Should We Rely on Intelligence Cycle?, Journal of Military and Information Science,
Vol3(3),93-99.
place. The process of getting intelligence begins with
collecting data. It is not easy to acquire intelligence
because of massive amount of data. With the help of
new technologies it has been very difficult to eliminate
and evaluate data. So relationship between data and
intelligence has to be understood in order to reach
accurate intelligence. Recognizing this relationship is
provided by DIKIW pyramid. This pyramid is vital,
because each type of it has interrelated with others.
Decision makers have react according to style of data
or information. If they don’t know the type of data,
they won’t react correctly. So the process from data to
wisdom must be learned deeply in order to perceive
related events.
2.1. DIKIW Pyramid and Hierarchy
Understanding this hierarchy is important, because
it shows us the path from data to the wisdom phase.
Many definitions have been made for explaining
DIKW. The hierarchy has various names. It can be
found as the ‘Knowledge Hierarchy’ or the
‘Information Hierarchy’ as well. Also some authors
describe the pyramid as DIKIW. In this description
“Intelligence” is included the pyramid. In fact
intelligence is somewhere between knowledge and
wisdom. Intelligence is directed to the purpose. One
should make sense of all gathered information in order
to succeed.
Fig. 1. The DIKIW Pyramid (Hey, 2004)
The DIKIW Pyramid (Figure 1) represents the main
relationship from data to the wisdom. Every step has a
meaning of its own. Data is the starting point of
pyramid. The desired end is reaching wisdom, but it is
not easy to reach, because it is obscure.
In Figure 2, we see that data and information is
related to and concerns on the past. When we look at
Fig. 2. The Continuum of Understanding (Cleveland,
1982)
knowledge, it is seen that knowledge is related with
current time. As for wisdom, it is generally concerns to
the future. Generally knowledge deals with interacting
information and it intends to get experience. But
wisdom has an intuitive side. It provides
comprehending all events.
Famous scholar Ackoff defines data as symbols. It
is widespread and has no meaning alone (Ackoff,
1989). According to Davenport and Prusak, if data
can’t be related to other events by itself, it has no
specific purpose at all. Data have no interpretation and
they can’t be the mainstay of a certain events. Data
don’t give us the reason why something happens. Data
are important to create information that is why
collecting data are crucial (Davenport and Prusak,
1998).
Ackoff defines information as the answers of “who,
what, where and when” questions. For information,
meaning is crucial (Ackoff, 1989). Davenport and
Prusak define information in accordance with its
purpose. Information intends to change a specific
subject. Information also must shape the recipient
perception. It must affects and forms the person’s view.
In this aspect, the recipient is very crucial, because
meaning can vary according to recipient’s mind
(Davenport and Lawrence Prusak, 1998).
As for knowledge, Ackoff calls it as a deterministic
process which aims to be useful (Ackoff, 1989).
Knowledge is dynamic process while information has a
static process. Experience is momentous for knowledge
(Cleveland, 1982). Davenport and Prusak say that
knowledge is quite different from data and information,
because knowledge occurs within the mind of the
cognizant. Secondly, knowledge is shaped within the
organization and processes. Knowledge is quite
important, because it increases the efficiency of all

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Corresponding author: Bahadır Aydın , Vol. 3(3)
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Aydın, B. and Özleblebici, Z.,(2015). Should We Rely on Intelligence Cycle?, Journal of Military and Information Science,
Vol3(3),93-99.
processes. We must admit that however information
and knowledge resemble each other, they are not
interchangeable. The most important thing for
organizations, the military or other institutions is to
make a decision about needs and situations (Davenport
and Prusak, 1998). So knowledge help us to decide and
to react about situation.
We have mentioned the DIKW pyramid (knowledge
pyramid as well), but not cited about intelligence.
Intelligence is defined in the Oxford dictionary as “the
ability to acquire and apply knowledge and skills”.
Karabekir defines intelligence as spreading false news
at peace, as well as at war (Karabekir, 1998).
According to Lowenthal “Intelligence refers to
information that meets the stated or understood needs
of policymakers... All intelligence is information; not
all information is intelligence.” (Lowenthal, 2000).
This definition stresses that intelligence has a strong tie
between information and knowledge. We can say that
understanding the soul of intelligence lies underneath
the knowledge as well as tacit knowledge.
Another topic within this hierarchy is the wisdom
which distinguishes from described above. Ackoff
describes wisdom as a non-deterministic process in
which the answers are not clear. In wisdom, judgments
between good and bad are done philosophically
(Ackoff, 1989). Relationship between wisdom and
intelligence is significant to evaluate events. It can be
assumed that intelligence may stand for thesis,
creativity may stands for antithesis. To make sense of
something may describe wisdom. Creativity is vital for
process, because creative people may recognize
missing points or they may find underlying truths. At
this point wisdom may help both for intelligence and
creativity (Sternberg, 2011). So we must find way to
establish link between DIKW and creativity. This link
may provide to acquire pure intelligence. The process
which data evolve towards to wisdom affects decision
makers decree. Data collected from different sources
have increased much more than ever. So decision
makers have to apply proper methods to attain optimum
result
2.2. Intelligence Process
Intelligence intends to accept/deny, evaluate, foster,
and perceive information for the use of decision
makers. The obscurity must be reduced for decision
makers so a holistic approach must be applied for
obtaining precise intelligence.
Albus states “intelligence is needed to make plan
for the future. It also helps to comprehend, predict,
prosper and recognize threats. He proposes world
modeling and value judgment as elements of
intelligence” (Albus, 1991). In his reviews intelligence
is in the core of decision making process. In order to
eliminate risks, one has to acquire absolute intelligence.
Stephan Parker describes information, as well as
intelligence, like water. He thinks that some
characteristics of intelligences are similar to water.
Such as, both come from different sources, both may be
easy or hard to obtain, both must be prepared before
use (gathering, handling, stocking up and delivering)
and both may be falsified on purpose or accidentally.
They are alike in some ways but the flow of
information has to be managed in order to reach a
desired result (Water, 2000). When we talk about
intelligence, we mainly mean collecting the data,
evaluating and disseminating them. But intelligence is
far more than collecting, processing, analysing and
disseminating.
Parker continues by making a comparison between
water and information. Water is the main element for
life and development. Even though it is obvious that
there is water everywhere, it is hard to find. If it is
found, it is hard to know how to attain it. If it is attained
once, it can’t be applicable for practical usage. So every
organizations or governments seek clean water and they
intend to share it with people as easy as possible. But
there is a big dilemma in this point that people may
tend to drink dirty water because it is tasty and close for
them. So, as an organization you can direct people but
you can’t make them taste the water (Sternberg, 2011).
Intelligence has an intuitive side which is directly
related to creativity and originality. As we mentioned
about creativity of knowledge, it is directly related to
tacit knowledge. So we have to focus on tacit
knowledge for obtaining this intuitive side. Knowledge
can be classified as tacit and explicit knowledge. Tacit
knowledge is a kind of knowledge that cannot be
expressed easily whereas explicit knowledge is known
and learned by everyone. There is a strong correlation
between tacit knowledge and intelligence.
Michael Polanyi is one of the most important
participant to term “tacit knowledge”. His initial point
is the famous philosopher David Hume and John
Locke’s ideas. Michael Polanyi opposes the idea of
objectivism which is about knowledge. According to
Hume and Locke, knowledge must be experienced and
testable. If not, it can’t be named as knowledge.
Polanyi also disagrees that knowledge must has
personal judgment. He proposes “focal awareness” and
“subsidiary awareness”. Focal awareness has to be
assisted by subsidiary awareness in order to understand
the whole object. His theory is based on the fact that we
normally have much more knowledge than we talk and
mention. He has also described five elements of tacit
knowledge: Tacitness, individuality, situationally,

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Corresponding author: Bahadır Aydın , Vol. 3(3)
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Aydın, B. and Özleblebici, Z.,(2015). Should We Rely on Intelligence Cycle?, Journal of Military and Information Science,
Vol3(3),93-99.
stability, cultural and practicality (Polanyi, 1958).
These elements help a lot for creating an organization
culture. Also they provide us with holistic view of
knowledge. So with the help of tacit knowledge it will
be easy to obtain precise intelligence.
3. Discussions about Intelligence Cycle
There have been many arguments about
intelligence cycle. Basically the main criticism is about
their being outdated. Also another review is that
interrelation of each phase has been ignored. However
they mention about collaboration, in reality there are
restrictions for sharing knowledge. Sharing knowledge
is a topic that has strong correlation with knowledge.
The first one is conceptualist method, which refers
to result oriented cycle. The second one is proceduralist
cycle, which refers to follow process. Below above was
mainly about the proceduralist. They have defined
different cycles (nested cycles, feedback loops etc.) But
I am one of the conceptualist that the process should
dwell on results.
For comprehending intelligence cycle, distinction
between intelligence and information has to be
understood. Information as we stated above, refers to
collecting data. It excludes interpreting as well as
analysing. Analysing information is crucial, because it
transfers information into intelligence.
Because of psychological barriers, security matters
and organizational structures, collection and analyst
sections do not work parallel in order to obtain
intelligence. Also the intelligence cycle is harmed
because crucial reports are held back. Communication
during the whole process is important but generally it is
missing. There is another reality that policy makers do
not believe in the cycle’s output (Hulnick, 2006).
Managing intelligence ability underpins many
activities as well as military, economic, marketing or
social activity. Intelligence also affects decision makers
judgment. With the help of intelligence, decision
making process shortens and becomes more quickly.
The more situation conceived the more success gained.
In order to get to situation, intelligence is needed first.
The intelligence plays a vital role for decision makers
who is in charge of any activities. Therefore military,
many companies as well as universities have initiated
“intelligence brunch” as their sub section.
3.1. Intelligence Cycle
If information is not mentioned clearly or not
tackled properly, it will not be helpful for decision
makers. Decision makers must have appropriate and
precise information in order to take action. For a
reaction, the intelligence cycle must be applied in order
to acquire intelligence from raw information (Pre
Doctrinal Handbook, 2010).
The intelligence cycle (Figure 3) is the process to
compose intelligence from raw data in order to help
decision makers. Below at the figure 3 we see six steps.
The process begins with intelligence consumers’ needs
and ends with dissemination of intelligence. Active
collaboration is needed during the whole process
(“Intelligence Cycle” n.d.). This process has been
defined during the 1940’s for military intelligence. In
this cycle, information turns into intelligence after
analysis phase. Finally process ends with
dissemination.
Fig.3. Intelligence Cycle (“Intelligence Cycle” n.d.)
The intelligence cycle usually has a self-repeating
process which is a continuous process. It usually
consists of collection, evaluation, analysis and
dissemination. For many years this process has been
applied but it is hard to tell that this cycle meets today’s
needs. For instance, one of the biggest problems is that
counter intelligence is missing in the cycle (Heibel,
2012). Another problem is big data, it can be named
huge data as well. With the help of technology data
have been around more than ever. Data being examined
are much more than anticipated. In this point “Data
Mining, Network Analysis and Sentiment Analysis
etc.” are applied to get information from these data.
For the intelligence cycle, Hulnick states two
essential problems. The first one is that the process is
not well defined and the second problem is about
disregarding tacit knowledge and counter intelligence.
When considering intelligence as a whole, it can be
realized that politicians or intelligence managers expect
the system to warn them about future or problem
(Hulnick, 2006). But reality is not like that and will not
be in the near future…

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Corresponding author: Bahadır Aydın , Vol. 3(3)
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Aydın, B. and Özleblebici, Z.,(2015). Should We Rely on Intelligence Cycle?, Journal of Military and Information Science,
Vol3(3),93-99.
In this respect, intelligence managers evaluate
policy makers demand then step forward. Usually they
make a formulation about specific intelligence. Later
on they send the topics to policy makers. As Secretary
of Defense Donald Rumsfeld mentioned “we do not
know what we do not know”. So we can say that
politicians do not lead intelligence services to obtain
intelligence. In evaluating the second step the same
situation applies. Collection managers have no time to
wait for confirmation for policy makers. They have to
collect intelligence whenever they see it. It will not be
wrong to tell that the key element for intelligence is
intelligence managers. In this process, the work of the
analyst is very crucial. They evaluate raw material
gathered from many sources then compare them with
old data. The analyst and intelligence collectors work at
the same time. Sometimes material goes directly to
political official before being analysed. This causes
problem for politicians, because they assume that the
intelligence has been evaluated already
(Hulnick, 2006).
3.2. Proposed Models for Intelligence Cycle
Recent discussions are held around concept of the
intelligence cycle. Because this cycle has been defined
more than 50 years ago, when considering the
development of technology and communication, it is
easy to say that the process should be redefined again.
Discussions have been focused on its being process
based or result-oriented. Here below shown some
proposed intelligence cycles. Although every cycle
suggest different style, they are not totally different. In
this point it is important to apply correct cycle, but
handling way of them make differentiations.
As stated above there have been defined various
intelligence cycles. We can’t say that one is better or
worse. The most important thing is applying cycle in
respect of the needs. But we have to decide which
method to use.
With the help of the latest advances in technology,
Treverton described a new intelligence cycle
(Figure 4). It is based on pushing rather than pulling.
The most important thing for this cycle is that it is
timely and responses are faster than old ones. Also
interrelation during the whole process continues
(Treverton, 2001).
Fig. 4: Real Intelligence Cycle (Treverton, 2001)
Treverton’s cycle is short and distinct. He has
handled intelligence properly in general. His main
purpose is to include leaders or commanders to the
process. But there is one point lacking for analysing
phase. He had better take into consideration of
analysing phase. With emerging technologies, this
phase will be more useful than ever. Also he did not
mention about the importance of tacit knowledge at all.
Fig. 5: The i-System (Nakamori, 2003)
Another scholar Nakamori suggested “i-System” to
understand the intelligence and knowledge creation
(Figure 5). This system consists of five structures:
Intervention, intelligence, involvement, imagination,
and integration. His starting point is intervention where
the process begins. He views intelligence as a
“scientific knowledge”. Involvement refers to social
factors that affect the all process. Imagination is about
intuition and integration is all about the final step
knowledge of itself (Nakamori, 2003).

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Corresponding author: Bahadır Aydın , Vol. 3(3)
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Aydın, B. and Özleblebici, Z.,(2015). Should We Rely on Intelligence Cycle?, Journal of Military and Information Science,
Vol3(3),93-99.
This system is very important to understand
knowledge creation. Intelligence, which is named as a
knowledge of science, has to be understood clearly for
acquiring. Intelligence has to be applied in order to
reach wisdom. Although there is a strong tie between
knowledge and intelligence, intelligence is sometimes
much more than knowledge. It would not be wrong to
say that intelligence lies between wisdom and
knowledge. When considering presenting big data, we
can conclude that tacit knowledge will help much more
than anything to understand the whole picture. During
the whole process of i-system, tacit knowledge will
associate with subsystems.
Those proposed cycles have been defined in order
to increase effectiveness of intelligence cycle. The
main purpose of these cycles are adopting to new
situations. None of the proposed cycle knocking out
intelligence cycle. So discussions continues.
Today new technologies facilitate every part of life
as well as knowledge management. Sentiment analysis,
network analysis and IT systems are some of them.
This kind of tools will help us to conceive the
intelligence more rapidly. Using new technologies by
applying different type of intelligence cycle will
provide situational awareness, this topic is vital to reach
desired end. For any organizations situational
awareness has a key role to adapt capabilities to the
new situations. These awareness supports intelligence
cycle deeply.
Discussion about intelligence cycle continues,
because intelligence producers and intelligence
demanders are not the same person. Also they have
different view of expectations. Decision makers have to
be included in all intelligence cycle process. By-
passing steps may lead false results but, because analyst
interpreting part is crucial (Duvenage, 2010).
Technological sharing platforms have changed
perspective of intelligence. Technology has led to push
and pull platforms that shortens the all process. The
cycle should provide four results; creating new ideas,
solving problems, making decisions and taking action
for desired end (Bennet, 2004).
For the cycle, analysis phase is very crucial today.
Because open sources like internet and media are
excessively huge. However human intelligence is more
valuable, open source information may be helpful and
cheap. The cycle should be redefined again
independently from cycle. The result oriented
intelligence cycle may be more fruitful, because it
enables interactions between different phases. Focusing
on cycle will not change situation. Moreover any cycle
defined to take full picture of intelligence will be
imperfect unless counterintelligence is included. So we
must define a different process which will guide us
through intelligence concept. Whether the process
depict cycle or not, the process should respect
technology, interaction of groups, open sources such as
internet and counter intelligence which must be at the
core of intelligence cycle.
4. Conclusion
Intelligence requirements are crucial for all
intelligence cycles. The requirements can be classified
as standing requirement and spot requirement.
Traditional intelligence cycle may be applied for
standing requirement, which provides information for
mid and long term. As for today’s needs, they are
usually spot requirement, which is specific and timely
needed.
The basis of intelligence stems from knowledge
and information. Intelligence is a sort of COA which
consists of planning, obtaining, comparing, evaluating,
envisaging, defining, formalizing, interpreting,
authenticating and decision making process. So
developing method of intelligence cycle is crucial. In
this point, we must find way to define intelligence
cycle. The faster intelligence flows to commanders, the
faster proper decisions will be taken. In this point the
process is not important at all. The most important
thing is attaining intelligence timely and correctly. The
overwhelming conceptualizations of intelligence cycle
may not be useful, because of massive data. So we
must dwell on the results apart from intelligence cycle.
We must apply methods which can meet anticipated
needs and filter non-relevant data. The discussions
about intelligence cycle being viable seems to continue
for the future.
Acknowledgements
This report is the extended version of the paper
appeared in the Proceedings of International
Conference on Military and Security Studies-2015. The
authors would like to thank to the organizers and the
editor of this journal for their efforts.
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