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Anthropogenic Climate changes in the twenty-first century in northern Eurasia
Abstract
Climate changes in northern Eurasia in the 21st century induced by green-house gas increases projected in the IPCC A2 and B2 scenarios are assessed on the basis of simulations with an ensemble of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. Computations are performed for major watersheds of Russia and adjacent regions. Projections of the changes in the thermal regime and in a number of hydrological characteristics in different seasons for the mid-and late 21st century are presented. Permafrost and Arctic ice extent changes are ana-lyzed as well.
... P -E, e.g. IPCC 2001; Meleshko et al. 2004) or runoff output directly from climate models (e.g. Hagemann et al. 2009). ...
... This study and most other published projections of future Q to the Baltic Sea indicate an overall increase in Q at the end of next century (Hagemann et al. 2012;Meier et al. 2006;Graham 2004;Hagemann and Dumenil 1999;Meleshko et al. 2004;IPCC 2001), with the exception of a statistical downscaling study (Hansson et al. 2011). This study indicates a dampened seasonal variation of Q, also predicted by Graham (2004); however in this study some projections indicate only a weakened spring flood peak, while others indicate no spring flood. ...
This study reports on new projections of discharge to the Baltic Sea given possible realisations of future climate and uncertainties regarding these projections. A high-resolution, pan-Baltic application of the Hydrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE) model was used to make transient simulations of discharge to the Baltic Sea for a mini-ensemble of climate projections representing two high emissions scenarios. The biases in precipitation and temperature adherent to climate models were adjusted using a Distribution Based Scaling (DBS) approach. As well as the climate projection uncertainty, this study considers uncertainties in the bias-correction and hydrological modelling. While the results indicate that the cumulative discharge to the Baltic Sea for 2071 to 2100, as compared to 1971 to 2000, is likely to increase, the uncertainties quantified from the hydrological model and the bias-correction method show that even with a state-of-the-art methodology, the combined uncertainties from the climate model, bias-correction and impact model make it difficult to draw conclusions about the magnitude of change. It is therefore urged that as well as climate model and scenario uncertainty, the uncertainties in the bias-correction methodology and the impact model are also taken into account when conducting climate change impact studies.
... The problem of the climate change estimation is in the spotlight of the scientific community. Numerous investigations enabled to establish changes in the climatic system of the Earth on the global [1,7,18,24] and regional [3,4,9,11,15] levels. The typical peculiarity of the warming and increase in humidity is the unidirectional change in both positive and negative anomalous deviations for concrete areas. ...
... Maximal positive anomalies of air temperature are registered in winter and spring seasons [4,6,9,17,19], that, in turn, caused the increase in duration of the vegetation period [1]. Due to the insufficient study of precipitation climatology as compared with temperature climatology, one can tell only about the general tendency of the growth of precipitation amount in the Urals in recent years owing to the increase in heavy precipitation recurrence [9,11]. ...
Dynamics of the surface air temperature and amount of precipitation in the Polar, Northern, and Southern Urals in the 20th
century is analyzed. Charts of the temperature distribution in the Urals for the period from 1961 to 2000, taking into account
the relief, are plotted in the geographical informational system on the basis of data of instrumental measurements at meteorological
stations with the use of the multiple regression analysis and raster modeling. The northeastern direction of the warming gradient
and increase of falling precipitations in the period under review is established. Time series of anomalies of the average
annual air temperature and amount of precipitation in the 20th century at three meteorological stations, situated in the Polar,
Northern, and Southern Urals, are analyzed. The tendency of the growth of anomalies of the average annual temperature and
total amount of precipitation is revealed.
... Most studies use climate model simulations based on the different emissions scenarios to feed basin-specific hydrological models. As noted in Kundzewicz et al. (2007), methodological advances since the IPCC (2001) have focused on exploring the effects of different ways of downscaling from the climate model scale to the catchment scale (e.g., Wood et al. 2004), the use of regional climate models to create scenarios or drive hydrological models (e.g., Arnell et al. 2003;Shabalova et al. 2003;Andreasson et al. 2004;Meleshko et al. 2004;Payne et al. 2004;Fowler et al. 2007;Graham et al. 2007a, b;Prudhomme and Davies 2007), ways of applying scenarios to observed climate data (Drogue et al. 2004), and the effect of hydrological model uncertainty on estimated impacts of climate change (Arnell 2005). ...
... Methodological advances since the TAR have focused on exploring the effects of different ways of downscaling from the climate model scale to the catchment scale (e.g., , the use of regional climate models to create scenarios or drive hydrological models (e.g., Arnell et al., 2003;Shabalova et al., 2003;Andreasson et al., 2004;Meleshko et al., 2004;Payne et al., 2004;Kay et al., 2006b;Fowler et al., 2007;Graham et al., 2007a, b;Prudhomme and Davies, 2007), ways of applying scenarios to observed climate data (Drogue et al., 2004), and the effect of hydrological model uncertainty on estimated impacts of climate change (Arnell, 2005). In general, these studies have shown that different ways of creating scenarios from the same source (a global-scale climate model) can lead to substantial differences in the estimated effect of climate change, but that hydrological model uncertainty may be smaller than errors in the modelling procedure or differences in climate scenarios (Jha et al., 2004;Arnell, 2005;Wilby, 2005;Kay et al., 2006a, b). ...
... Methodological advances since the TAR have focused on exploring the effects of different ways of downscaling from the climate model scale to the catchment scale (e.g., , the use of regional climate models to create scenarios or drive hydrological models (e.g., Arnell et al., 2003;Shabalova et al., 2003;Andreasson et al., 2004;Meleshko et al., 2004;Payne et al., 2004;Kay et al., 2006b;Fowler et al., 2007;Graham et al., 2007a, b;Prudhomme and Davies, 2007), ways of applying scenarios to observed climate data (Drogue et al., 2004), and the effect of hydrological model uncertainty on estimated impacts of climate change (Arnell, 2005). In general, these studies have shown that different ways of creating scenarios from the same source (a global-scale climate model) can lead to substantial differences in the estimated effect of climate change, but that hydrological model uncertainty may be smaller than errors in the modelling procedure or differences in climate scenarios (Jha et al., 2004;Arnell, 2005;Wilby, 2005;Kay et al., 2006a, b). ...
The most significant large-scale environmental challenge that many countries, especially in the arid and semi-arid regions
of the world, will face in the middle and long-term are water scarcity problems, which are attributed to climate change impacts
such as temperature increase, abundance of high solar radiation, and aridity in addition to population pressure. In many countries,
current water resources use already exceeds sustainable and renewable supply. Various methodologies are suggested to increase
the sources of water supply, among which one of the alternatives is rainwater and runoff harvesting (ROH). Water scarcity
and additional stress are among the most specific problems in arid and semi-arid regions, where vegetation cover is very weak
under extensive solar irradiation effects with high evaporation rates. Present global warming, climate change impacts, and
their future patterns are expected to cause increase in the evapotranspiration rates and hence reduction in the groundwater
recharges. Under such circumstances, any simple but effective water storage augmentation facility as the artificial groundwater
recharge gains vital importance for sustainability of water supply and survivals in desert ecosystems. Although intensive
and frequent rainfall events are rare they generate significant surface water flow during occasional floods and especially
flash floods with huge amounts of surface water. It is, therefore, necessary to enhance artificial groundwater recharge from
consequent frequent runoffs through suitable hydraulic structures. This paper aims at assessing the importance of ROH systems
for domestic supply in arid regions with specific reference to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. For this purpose, it presents
ROH from the surface flows in depressions of Quaternary wadi deposits in arid and semi-arid regions.
... Increased interest in the region of Siberia in the context of climate studies is due not only to the most significant, as compared with other regions, changes in surface air temperature observed during the period of instrumental observations [1]. The results of simulations with global models [3,4] show that in the future, even larger changes should be expected in the 21st century, which will affect all components of the climate system in the region: atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, and biosphere. The question remains open on consequences of the above-mentioned changes both within and without the region. ...
Validation results of the MGO regional climate model (RCM) with 50-km resolution for Siberia are discussed. For the specification
of side boundary conditions, the reanalysis data are used. It is shown that the model satisfactorily simulates the sea-level
pressure and temperature fields for all seasons and the year as a whole. The lowest computational errors in the simulation
of regional surface temperature arise in the fall and winter; in spring and summer, the temperature errors are slightly higher.
The model slightly underestimates the variability of daily mean temperature in winter relative to the reanalysis data. In
summer, on the contrary, the RCM-simulated variability exceeds the variability in reanalysis. In winter, the space distribution
of model precipitation is in qualitative agreement with the data of observational analysis; in summer, the space variability
of model precipitation is significantly higher than that of precipitation in the reanalysis, especially in the mountains.
Agreement between time changes in precipitation and temperature anomalies in RCM and in the reanalysis is better in the areas
with a relatively large number of weather stations. The model can be used for estimation of future climate changes in the
above-mentioned region.
... Methodological advances since the TAR have focused on exploring the effects of different ways of downscaling from the climate model scale to the catchment scale (e.g., , the use of regional climate models to create scenarios or drive hydrological models (e.g., Arnell et al., 2003;Shabalova et al., 2003;Andreasson et al., 2004;Meleshko et al., 2004;Payne et al., 2004;Kay et al., 2006b;Fowler et al., 2007;Graham et al., 2007a, b;Prudhomme and Davies, 2007), ways of applying scenarios to observed climate data (Drogue et al., 2004), and the effect of hydrological model uncertainty on estimated impacts of climate change (Arnell, 2005). In general, these studies have shown that different ways of creating scenarios from the same source (a global-scale climate model) can lead to substantial differences in the estimated effect of climate change, but that hydrological model uncertainty may be smaller than errors in the modelling procedure or differences in climate scenarios (Jha et al., 2004;Arnell, 2005;Wilby, 2005;Kay et al., 2006a, b). ...
The effects are considered that global warming and rapid sea ice decline in the Arctic (up to the formation of ice-free conditions in the Arctic Ocean in summer) made on the hydrological regime of Northern Eurasia. Ensemble computations of climate are provided and changes in the atmospheric water cycle and in water balance in large catchment areas after the loss of multiyear sea ice in the Arctic are estimated. Considerable changes in the hydrological regime are demonstrated on the example of the large catchments of the Siberian rivers; the changes are especially manifested in the period of intense snow melting, i.e., in spring and in early summer. It is revealed that the increase in the frequency of spring floods is expected in the river catchments adjoining the Arctic Ocean. It is demonstrated that the Arctic Ocean ice reduction does not exert as significant influence on variations in the water cycle in Northern Eurasia as the global warming does.
Using observational data from 50 weather stations in Georgia for the period of 1936-2013, the following climate indices of moisture regime are studied: maximum 1-day precipitation, maximum 5-day precipitation, the simple daily intensity index, the number of days with precipitation equal to not less than 10, 20, and 50 mm, number of consecutive wet and dry days. Geoinformation maps of the spatial structure are plotted, and the dynamics of these indices is studied for the period of global warming. Expected changes in the moisture regime in different physiographic regions in Georgia are assessed.
Changes in freeze-up and breakup dates in 2000 are determined in comparison with the accepted norms of the present climate (1961-1990). They are statistically significant for most rivers of European Russia, Belorussia, and Western Siberia and are close to changes in the previous 100 years. The accuracy of the earlier suggested forecasts of these changes is assessed. Based on the calculations performed by the MGO climatologists using a simple model of freeze-up and breakup of ice cover, probabilistic characteristics of the future ice regime on the rivers throughout the 21st century have been derived. The perspectives of favorable changes in the navigation period, especially on the European rivers, are considered.
In this paper, anomalies of freezing of the European Russia’s rivers in 2006–2007 are considered. Multiyear observation data
are used for analysing of trends in time series, which express terms of the first floating ice appearance in the European
territory of Russia. It is shown that, in the end of the 20th and beginning of 21st centuries, a tendency of later freezing
of rivers in this territory was detected. Linear equations that describe temporal trends were obtained for various rivers.
Three variants of terms of the first floating ice appearance until 2020 were computed in accordance with the basic climatic
scenarios. It was shown that changes in the climatologic norms are significant for all the scenarios. In comparison with the
present values, future changes in the norms can reach 5 through 15 days.
Scenarios of the Arctic climate change in the 21st century are considered. The scenarios form a basis of impact assessment within the framework of the international effort "Arctic Climate Impact Assessment" (ACIA). The scenarios were obtained using five well-known modern global coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models forced with one of the new greenhouse gas and sulfate aerosol emission scenarios published in the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES).
A comparison of the annual cycle of total cloudiness, precipitation, snow mass, and evaporation with observational data obtained over the watershed of the Volga and Ural rivers and the Caspian Sea is carried out using the results of global climate calculations performed with 21 atmospheric general circulation models within the AMIP program. The mean errors and the errors of the annual cycle in calculations of the above characteristics over the watershed are estimated for each model. From average annual water balance data for the watershed and the sea area that have been calculated with the atmospheric models, variations of the Caspian Sea level are estimated and, thereafter, compared with observational data. An analysis of the interannual variability of the water balance shows that precipitation variations over the watershed play a determining role in interannual sea level oscillations.
Spatial distribution of the depth of seasonal thaw and ground temperature is refined with respect to the features of vegetation cover. For Western Siberia, these distributions are obtained for the present climate and for a doubling of atmospheric CO2. In order to estimate temperature fields under tree tops, an atmospheric boundary layer model is employed. Possible impacts of the forest fire trace on permafrost characteristics are estimated.
Numerical results of global climate models are used to infer possible changes in regional hydrologic cycle characteristics, including precipitation and river runoff, in the 21st century. Both coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models and a climatic model of intermediate complexity, forced by scenarios of an anthropogenic increase in the atmospheric greenhouse gas content, are used. The model results show that the precipitation amounts considerably increase in the high latitudes, in particular, over Eurasia, under anthropogenic warming in the 21st century. This is associated primarily with a large increase in the winter precipitation intensity, especially over northeastern Eurasia. The changes in summer precipitation differ widely, with a large negative trend occurring in the midlatitudes. This trend is associated with corresponding changes in the probability of wet days. Despite a decline in summer precipitation over a large Eurasian region, the precipitation intensity increases. The relative contribution of intense precipitation to the total precipitation amount increases as well. Model estimates are presented for possible changes occurring in the 21st century in precipitation and river runoff over various regions, including the basins of the Volga, the Caspian Sea, the Neva, Lake Ladoga, the Ob, Yenisei, and Lena rivers. On the whole, the precipitation and runoff in these basins, as well as their variability, are found to generally increase in the 21st century against the background of considerable interannual and interdecadal variability. The average runoffs of the Volga, Ob, Yenisei, and Neva rivers somewhat decline in the first half of the 21st century in the general circulation climate models, whereas no such decline is found for the Lena runoff.