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M OV I N G TO WAR D
S U S TA I N A B L E
P R O S P E R I T Y
T H E W O R L D W AT C H I N S T I T U T E
State of th e Wor l d 2012
SUSTAINABLEPROSPERITY.ORG 121
he demographers who calculate the
future size of world population are not
so much wrong as misunderstood.
Humanity may indeed grow to 9 billion peo-
ple by the middle of this century from 7 bil-
lion today and then stop increasing sometime
in the twenty-second century around 10 bil-
lion. But this outcome is far from inevitable.
It is neither an estimate nor a prediction but
merely a projection—a conditional forecast of
what will come about if current assumptions
about declining human fertility and mortality
prove true.1
No one, however, can be certain where
birth or death rates will go in the coming
years. (Migration rates are even less certain, but
they only influence global population if birth
and death rates change because people move.)
And although policymakers and the news
media rarely mention the possibility, societies
can do a great deal to prompt an earlier peak-
ing of world population at fewer than the
“expected” 9 billion. Ending population
growth would accelerate population aging,
which means a rising median age for people in
a country or the world. That could challenge
societies economically as smaller proportions
of a population are working and contributing
to the retirement and health care benefits of a
growing number of older, non-working peo-
ple. Yet that is all but certain to be a manage-
able trade-off in return for longer lives in a less
crowded and environmentally stressed world.
Ending Population Growth
The contribution that an end to population
growth would make to environmentally sus-
tainable prosperity is straightforward. The
future of wealth and its distribution will be
closely linked to the future of the global cli-
mate, the health of nature, and the availabil-
ity of key natural resources. Since all
descendents of today’s low-income, low-con-
sumption populations will anticipate and
should expect consumption-boosting eco-
nomic development, a lower future population
would mean less pressure on climate, envi-
ronment, and natural resources by future gen-
erations. It is a scenario without a downside for
global well-being.
No ethical person would want an early end
to population growth through rising death
rates, though such an outcome cannot be ruled
out given current trends in climate change,
food production, and energy supplies. Nor is
C H A P T E R 9
Nine Population Strategies to
Stop Short of 9 Billion
Robert Engelman
T
P O L I C Y T O O L B O X
Robert Engelman is president of Worldwatch Institute.
122 WWW.W ORL DWATCH.ORG
Nin e Popul ati on St rateg ies t o Stop Sh ort o f 9 Bil lion STATE OF T HE WORLD 2012
there now, or for the foreseeable future, sig-
nificant public support for policies that would
impose reproductive limits on couples and indi-
viduals. Abundant experience from around the
world, however, demonstrates clearly how to
reduce birth rates significantly through policies
that not only respect the reproductive aspira-
tions of parents and would-be parents but sup-
port a healthy, educated, and economically
active populace—especially of women and girls.
This chapter describes nine strategies that col-
lectively would be likely to end human popu-
lation growth before mid-century at a level
below 9 billion. (See Figures 9–1 and 9–2 for
profiles of world population growth since
1970.) Most of the policies are relatively inex-
pensive to put in place and implement, although
some are culturally and hence politically sensi-
tive in many or most countries.2
Assure Universal Access to a Range of Safe
and Effective Contraceptive Options for Both
Sexes. Since the early 1960s the use of contra-
ception has increased markedly, with most
women of reproductive age around the world
using it. This increasing contraceptive preva-
lence has closely tracked a comparable and
opposite decrease in average family size world-
wide. Nevertheless, more than 40 percent of
all pregnancies are unintended, and a conser-
vatively estimated 215 million women in devel-
oping countries alone are hoping to avoid
pregnancy but not using effective contracep-
tion. Although physical access to contraception
does not guarantee that all reproductive-age
people will use it, it is essential for personal fer-
tility control (especially where there is little or
no access to safe abortion). Demographic evi-
dence is growing that if all women could time
their pregnancies according to their own
desires, total global fertility would fall below
effective replacement levels (two-plus-a-fraction
children per woman), putting population on a
trajectory toward a peak and gradual decline
before 2050.3
An estimated $24.6 billion a year would pay
for the family planning and related maternal
and child health services needed to ensure
that all sexually active women in developing
countries who seek to avoid pregnancy could
gain access to contraception. By comparison,
the world spends approximately $42 billion on
pet food each year. (See Box 9–1.) Satisfying
the unmet need for contracep-
tion in industr ial countries
would presumably cost less
(although no estimates of that
are available), as most such
countries have fairly well devel-
oped health systems that pro-
vide at least som e level of
reproductive services.4
Perhaps the dominant obsta-
cle to making access to family
planning universal is widespread
ambiguity about human sexu-
ality and the persistence of reli-
gious and cultural barriers to
the principle that women,
whether married or not, should
be able to choose sexual expres-
sion without fear of unintended
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Billion People
Source: UN Population Division
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Africa
Asia and Pacific
Europe
West Asia
North America
Latin America and Caribbean
Figure 9–1. World Population, by Region, 1970–2010
SUSTAINABLEPROSPERITY.ORG 123
SUSTAINABLE PROSPERITY Nine Population Strategies to Stop Short of 9 Billion
pregnancy. Surveys indicate that
the vast majority of Americans,
at least, believe that women
should be able to choose the
timing and frequency of child-
bearing by having access to
contraception. Ensuring that
all couples can m ake such
choices will require much
stronger public support in the
face of ongoing opposition to
family planning and marginal-
ization of the links between
women’s reproductive choices,
population dynamics, and social
well-being.5
Guarantee Education
through Secondary School for
All, with a Particular Focus
on Girls. Experts differ on whether contra-
ceptive access or educational attainment more
directly reduces fertility. In every culture sur-
veyed, however, women who have completed
at least some secondary school have fewer
children on average, and have them later in
their lives, than women who have less edu-
cation. Surveying literature on this connec-
tion, for example, Dina Abu-Ghaida and
Stephan Klasen of the World Bank estimated
in 2004 that with each year of completed
secondary schooling, women’s average fertility
rates around the world are 0.3–0.5 children
lower than those of women without that
amount of schooling.6
Worldwide, according to calculations by
demographers at the International Institute
for Applied Systems Analysis, women with no
schooling have an average of 4.5 children,
whereas those with a few years of primary
school have just 3. Women who complete one
or two years of secondary school have an aver-
age of 1.9 children—a figure that over time
leads to a decreasing population. With one or
two years of college, the average childbearing
rate falls even further, to 1.7. Education
informs girls about healthy behavior and life
options and hence motivates them to endeavor
to postpone and minimize the frequency of
childbearing so that they can more easily
explore aspects of life beyond motherhood.7
As with the increasing use of contraception,
global progress in educating girls is already
impressive. As of 2010, more than three in
five individuals age 15 or older—just over 3 bil-
lion people—had finished at least some sec-
ondary school during their lifetimes. This
proportion has risen from 36 percent in 1970
and from 50 percent in 1990. Girls as well as
boys have benefited from this improvement. Yet
a “gender gap” between female and male edu-
cational attainment remains, with the percent-
age of girls in school consistently about 9
percent lower than the percentage of boys in
school. And there appears to be a long way to
go before most young women have effective
access to a complete and adequate secondary-
school education, especially in the least-devel-
oped countries. These countries are generally
the ones with the most stubbornly high fertil-
ity. Investing in education—not just to bring
children into schoolrooms but to improve the
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Percent
Source: UN Population Division
Europe
North America
Asia and Pacific
World
West Asia
Africa
Latin America and Caribbean
0
1
2
3
4
5
Figure 9–2. Population Growth Rates, by Region, 1970–2010
Along with the human population, another
population has been growing rapidly around
the world: pets. Today, the large population
of dogs, cats, and other companion animals
is having a serious impact on the world’s
environment.
In the United States, for example, there
are now 61 million dogs and 76.5 million cats.
Just in terms of food, a large dog uses 0.36
global hectares of resources per year, a small
dog 0.18, and a cat 0.13 hectares. For compar-
ison, a person in Bangladesh uses on average
0.6 hectares of resources a year in total—less
than what two German Shepherds use in a
year. Thus, in a conservative estimate, feed-
ing American pets has as much of an environ-
mental impact as the combined populations
of Cuba and Haiti.
Many pets today also use more resources
in the form of clothing, toys, and elaborate
veterinarian care. A small percentage of pets
even get treated to costly services like dog
walkers, grooming salons, and private pet
air travel service. One analysis finds that an
American dog owner typically spends any-
where from $4,000 to $100,000 on a dog
over its lifetime.
This is not just an American phenomenon.
Pet ownership is a global phenomenon, with
pet food alone costing $42 billion worldwide
each year. The pet industry has worked hard to
spread a culture of pet ownership around the
world. Brazil has the world’s second largest
dog population at 30 million, along with 12
million cats. China has the third largest dog
population (23 million dogs), and dog owner-
ship is growing so fast that Shanghai passed
a “one pet policy” in 2011 in reaction to such
problems as dog bites and rabies.
Ultimately, shrinking the population of
pets will have the same benefits as stabilizing
the human population: it will free up more
ecological space for development and for
restoring Earth’s systems. Several key strate-
gies, if implemented, will help this process.
First, all pets that are not intended for
breeding should be spayed and neutered
early in their lives—common practice in
some countries but not all. This will prevent
unwanted pets as well as feral animal popula-
tions, which can damage bird populations and
even threaten people. Adopting animals from
shelters (and sterilizing them) instead of buy-
ing pets from breeders will also help.
Second, policymakers should recognize
that pet ownership is a luxury and should
make it costlier to own pets, perhaps through
a steeper pet license fee or a tax on dog and
cat food. Including the costs of ecological
externalities in all products—including pet
products—would increase the expense of pet
ownership further.
Third, there should be better oversight of
the pet industry, which has an industry strat-
egy of “humanizing” pet populations so that
people will seek out pets to fill companion
gaps and spend more on them. Better regula-
tion of marketing efforts may help curb pet
populations and over time make pet owner-
ship less normal.
Finally, pet owners (and children—the
pet owners of tomorrow) should learn about
the significant ecological costs of pets. This
may curb some pet purchases and may
also reduce excessive purchases for current
pets—whether that is extra food (many pets
are overweight due to overfeeding), clothing,
fancy toys, pet spa treatments, and end-of-
life medical care that is more sophisticated
than many people in developing countries
have access to. Over time, people may also
shift to smaller pets, productive pets (like
chickens or goats), or pets shared among
a community.
—Erik Assadourian
Source: See endnote 4.
Box 9–1. Environmental Impact of Pets
Nin e Popul ati on St rateg ies t o Stop Sh ort o f 9 Bil lion STATE OF T HE WORLD 2012
124 WWW.W ORL DWATCH.ORG
desire for fewer children than they end up hav-
ing, as well as fewer children than men want.
The more children a woman has, the more
likely she is to want fewer additional ones than
her partner. How any specific indicator inter-
acts with fertility intentions and outcomes
remains unclear, but the broad connection of
women’s status and autonomy to later child-
bearing and smaller completed families adds to
the reason to change laws and customs that
institutionalize gender inequality.11
Offer Age-appropriate Sexuality Educa-
tion for All Students. A major obstacle to the
prevention of unintended pregnancy is igno-
rance by young people about how their bod-
ies work, how to abstain from unwanted sex,
how to prevent pregnancy when sexually active,
and how important it is to respect the bodies
and sexual intentions of others. Education in
all these matters would further reduce unin-
tended pregnancies and hence slow population
growth. This can begin in age-appropriate
ways almost as soon as schooling does. Ques-
tions about sex typically arise early in chil-
dren’s lives and require appropriate responses
from the adults around them. Children are
sometimes the victims of sexual harassment
or violence and need to learn early in their lives
how to recognize, protect themselves from,
and report inappropriate sexual behavior.
Sexuality education differs significantly
among countries and is absent from the cur-
ricula of many or most. In the United States,
comprehensive sex education tends to stress the
health and pregnancy-avoidance benefits of
abstinence as well as the importance of con-
traception and safe sexual practices for those
who choose not to be abstinent. U.S. data
indicate that exposure to comprehensive pro-
grams tends to delay the initiation of sex and
to increase the use of contraception among
young people. Along with the other benefits
provided, both of these trends would logi-
cally contribute to lower teen birth rates and
probably lower completed fertility.12
quality of their schooling—is among the rare
“triple wins” that boost human well-being,
economic development, and women’s inten-
tions and capacities to have fewer children later
in their lives.8
Eradicate Gender Bias from Law, Eco-
nomic Opportunity, Health, and Culture.
While universal access to good contraceptive
services and secondar y school education in
combination would reverse population growth,
active efforts to foster legal, political, and eco-
nomic gender equality would make contra-
ceptive and educational access much easier to
achieve and would hasten the reversal of
growth. Women who are able to own, inherit,
and manage property, to divorce their hus-
bands, to obtain credit, and to participate in
civic and political affairs on equal terms with
men are more likely to postpone childbearing
and reduce the number of their children com-
pared with women lacking such rights and
capacities. Indeed, a 2011 comparison of fer-
tility rates with differentials between men’s
and women’s political, economic, and health
status demonstrated a significant correlation
between high gender equality and lower rates
of childbearing.9
Research indicates that a number of specific
indicators of women’s empowerment result in
reduced or later childbearing. A study in
northern Tanzania, for example, found that
women with an equal say to their husbands in
household matters preferred to have signifi-
cantly fewer children than those who had to
defer to their husbands’ decisions. This is par-
ticularly important because men, free of the
physical hazards and discomforts of child-
bearing and usually investing much less time
than women do in childrearing, tend in most
countries to want more children than their
partners do.10
Demographic and health surveys over the
past several decades for the U.S. Agency for
International Development show that women
in almost all developing countries express a
SUSTAINABLE PROSPERITY Nine Population Strategies to Stop Short of 9 Billion
SUSTAINABLEPROSPERITY.ORG 125
ernments can preserve and even increase tax and
other financial benefits aimed at helping parents
by linking these not to the number of chil-
dren but to parenthood status itself. A set ben-
efit to all parents would allow them to decide
for themselves whether another child makes
economic sense given that the benefit will not
grow—just as the environment and its resources
do not grow—with any addition to the family.14
Integrate Teaching about Population,
Environment, and Development Relation-
ships into School Cur ricula at Multiple
Levels. Although environmental science edu-
cation is now well established, especially at the
university level, few school systems around the
world include curricula that teach young peo-
ple how human numbers, the natural envi-
ronment, and human development interact.
Yet today’s young people are very likely
to spend most of their lives in densely
populated human societies facing sig-
nificant environmental and natural
resource constraints. Without advo-
cacy or propaganda, schools should
help young people make well-informed
choices about the impacts of their
behavior, including childbearing, on
the world in which they live.
In the United States, the organiza-
tion Population Connection has an
active education program that provides
curricular material and training to teach-
ers interested in awakening students of
all ages to the dynamics and impor-
tance of population growth. It is not
clear, however, how widespread the
concept is in the United States or other coun-
tries. More education about human-environ-
ment interactions, including the influence of
human numbers, nonetheless could become an
important stimulus to a cultural transformation
that can hasten an end to population growth.15
Put Prices on Environmental Costs and
Impacts. Governments need to move toward
environmental pricing—including taxes, fees,
End All Policies that Reward Parents
Financially Based on the Number of Their
Children. There is no reason to believe that
pro-natalist government policies that reward
couples financially for each additional birth
have significantly raised total fertility rates in
any country. Nonetheless, it seems logical that
at least on the margin such policies do boost
birth rates slightly. The policies may be as bla-
tant as those in Russia and Singapore that
directly pay couples for additional children.
Or they may be couched as child care tax cred-
its that reduce a parent’s taxes for each addi-
tional child under 18 without limit, as in the
United States. Such policies subsidize “super-
replacement” fertility (rates well above two
children per woman), contributing to popu-
lations larger than they would otherwise be.13
Where it is clear that women and couples are
forgoing childbearing because of social dis-
couragement (for example in the workplace) or
a lack of acceptable child care options, gov-
ernments can address these issues directly. In
some northern European countries, for
instance, fertility rates rebounded from very low
levels after governments made paid leave
mandatory for new parents of either sex. Gov-
Father and son working together in Papua New Guinea
Taro Taylor
Nin e Popul ati on St rateg ies t o Stop Sh ort o f 9 Bil lion STATE OF T HE WORLD 2012
126 WWW.W ORL DWATCH.ORG
make necessar y social adjustments, increas-
ing labor participation and mobilizing older
people themselves to contribute to such adjust-
ments, for instance, rather than urging or
offering incentives to women to have more
children than they think best.
Population aging is a short-term phenome-
non that will pass before the end of this century,
with impacts far less significant and long-last-
ing than ongoing population growth, a point
policymakers need to understand better. Even
if today’s policymakers could boost population
growth through higher birth rates or immi-
gration, future policymakers would have to
grapple with the problems of aging at some later
time—when higher population density and its
associated problems only make boosting pop-
ulation growth less attractive and feasible.16
Convince Leaders to Commit to Ending
Population Growth through the Exercise of
Human Rights and Human Development.
Several decades ago, it was not unusual for
presidents and prime ministers in industrial
and developing countries to declare their
own commitment to slowing the growth of
population. Today, with twice as many peo-
ple as were then alive seeking the good life,
the need is more acute than ever for politi-
cal leaders to find the courage to acknowl-
edge the importance of ending population
growth. For a variety of reasons, however,
population has become a taboo topic in pol-
itics and in international affairs, though per-
haps somewhat less so in the news media
and in public discourse.
Speaking out on the importance of ending
human population growth worldwide will be
easier if leaders acquaint themselves with how
the population field has evolved over the past
few decades. They will then understand that
human numbers are best addressed—in fact,
can only be effectively and ethically
addressed—by empowering women to become
pregnant only when they themselves choose to
do so. One irony of this is that slowing pop-
rebates, and so on—for many reasons as soon
as politically feasible. Among the benefits of
carbon and other green taxes is their value in
reminding parents that each human being,
including a new one, has impacts on the envi-
ronment. In a crowded world of constrained
resources, these impacts should be accounted
and paid for so that large environmental foot-
prints face economic constraints. These con-
straints could be government-imposed, as in
the case of carbon taxes or usage fees for waste
removal services that are based on weight.
Such environment-related governmental con-
straints on consumption are currently rare,
however, and may not be feasible politically for
some time. Free-market pricing may eventually
play a similar role if the costs of food, energy,
and various natural resources continue to rise
due to scarcity and distribution challenges, as
many analysts predict.
The rising financial costs of large families
no doubt already discourage high fertility in
countries where contraception is socially
acceptable and readily available. If at some
point governments opt to raise the costs of
consumption that has negative impacts on
the environment, couples and individuals will
still be free to choose the timing and fre-
quency of childbearing. Yet by translating
into higher costs the impact of individuals,
environmentally based pricing will tend to
reduce fertility and birth rates as couples
decide the cost of having an additional child
is too high. This is hardly the reason to move
toward environmental pricing, but it will be
among its benefits.
Adjust to Population Aging Rather Than
Trying to Delay It through Governmental
Incentives or Programs Aimed at Boosting
Childbearing. Higher proportions of older
people in any population are a natural conse-
quence of longer life spans and women’s inten-
tions to have fewer children, neither of which
societies should want to reverse. The appro-
priate way to deal with population aging is to
SUSTAINABLE PROSPERITY Nine Population Strategies to Stop Short of 9 Billion
SUSTAINABLEPROSPERITY.ORG 127
128 WWW.W ORL DWATCH.ORG
Nin e Popul ati on St rateg ies t o Stop Sh ort o f 9 Bil lion STATE OF T HE WORLD 2012
ulation growth needs to be seen not so much
as the goal of some kind of crisis or emer-
gency program—a vision that the public and
politicians alike would find frightening—but
merely as a recognized and lauded side bene-
fit of a host of policies that improve the lives
of women, men, and children. If, through the
education strategies described here and a
broader cultural transformation on the topic,
more people recognize the value of an end to
population growth, each of these policies will
become more feasible and more effective in
bringing about beneficial demographic and
environmental change.
The Impact of the Nine Strategies
To some extent most of these policies already
are moving forward, albeit sluggishly, in dif-
ferent countries around the world. Powerful
forces—in some cases religious and cultural, in
others economic—oppose them, however.
Sadly, it may be years or decades before
increasing environmental deterioration and
resource shortages in an ever more crowded
world arouse the public so much that people
demand governmental action on root causes.
A powerful momentum helps drive today’s
population growth. As long as many more
people are in or approaching their childbear-
ing years than are nearing the end of their lives,
as is the case today, humanity will increase
for some time even if families are quite small.
It will take time for the smaller generations of
children to become parents themselves and
produce even smaller generations as the larger,
older generations pass on. The longer gov-
ernments delay policies such as those described
here, the more likely the world is to face large
and denser populations or increases in death
rates—or both.
If, by contrast, each of these policies some-
how could be put in place quickly and were
well supported by the public and policymak-
ers, population momentum itself would be
slowed significantly, through later and fewer
pregnancies, than ever witnessed in recorded
history. Few demographers have attempted to
quantify the population impact of various inter-
ventions beyond family planning access and
education for girls on fertility. But based on
what is known and can be logically conjec-
tured, it seems likely that putting most of these
policies together would undermine even pop-
ulation momentum and produce a turn-around
in population growth—with the significant
social and environmental benefits such a
dynamic would of fer—earlier than most
demographers believe is likely or even possible.
World population might indeed stop grow-
ing well short of the 9 billion so many believe
is inevitable. The fertility declines that could
bring a population peak at around 8 billion
before the middle of this century, with no
increases in death rates, are not unimaginable.
If this were to occur, a truly prosperous and
sustainable global society would be one long
stride closer than ever before.
212 WWW.W ORL DWATCH.ORG
Notes STATE OF THE WORLD 2012
ernance and Sustainability Issue Brief Series (Boston:
Center for Governance and Sustainability, Univer-
sity of Massachusetts, 2011).
26. Maria Ivanona, “UNEP in Global Environ-
mental Governance: Design, Leadership, Loca-
tion,” Global Environmental Politics, February
2010, pp. 30–59.
27. Division of Communications and Public Infor-
mation, UNEP, at UNEP.org/DCPI; Khatchig
Mouradian, “Time in the Wilderness: UNEP in
the World Public Consciousness,” prepared for
graduate course in International Organizations and
Environmental Governance, McCormack Graduate
School of Policy and Global Studies, University of
Massachusetts Boston, fall 2011.
28. U.N. General Assembly, op. cit. note 8.
29. Peter B. Stone, Did We Save the Earth at
Stockholm? (London: Earth Island, 1973), p. 132.
30. For a complementary and more detailed pro-
posal for reform, see John Scanlon, “Enhancing
Environmental Governance for Sustainable Devel-
opment: Some Personal Reflections,” submitted to
the preparatory process for the World Congress on
Justice, Governance and Law for Environmental
Sustainability, October 2011.
Chapter 9. Nine Population Strategies to Stop
Short of 9 Billion
1. Taken from the 2010 medium population
projection of the U.N. Population Division, avail-
able at esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Excel-Data/
population.htm, viewed 2 November 2011; John
Bongaarts and Rodolfo A. Bulatao, eds., Beyond 6
Billion: Forecasting the World’s Population (Wash-
ington, DC: National Academy Press, 2000); Wolf-
gang Lutz, Warren Sanderson, and Sergei Scherbov,
“Probabilistic Population Projections Based on
Expert Opinion,” in Wolfgang Lutz, ed., The Future
Population of the World (London: Earthscan, 1998).
2. Figures 9–1 and 9–2 from U.N. Population
Division, op. cit. note 1.
3. Data on contraceptive prevalence and average
family size from U.N. Population Division, op. cit.
note 1; Sushila Singh et al., Adding It Up: The
Costs and Benefits of Investing in Family Planning
and Maternal and Newborn Health (New York:
Guttmacher Institute: 2009); demographic evi-
dence from Robert Engelman, “An End to Popu-
lation Growth: Why Family Planning Is Key to a
Sustainable Future,” Solutions, April 2011.
4. Guttmacher Institute, In Brief: Facts on Invest-
ing in Family Planning and Maternal and Child
Health (New York: 2010); $42 billion for pet food
from Erik Assadourian, “The Rise and Fall of Con-
sumer Cultures,” in Worldwatch Institute, State of
the World 2010 (New York: W. W. Norton & Com-
pany, 2010), p. 16. Box 9–1 from the following:
Robert Vale and Brenda Vale, Time to Eat the Dog?
The Real Guide to Sustainable Living (London:
Thames & Hudson: 2009), pp. 225–53; Global
Footprint Network, The Ecological Footprint Atlas
2008, rev. ed. (Oakland, CA: 2008); Cuba and
Haiti calculation by Erik Assadourian based on
Vale and Vale, op cit. this note, and on Global
Footprint Network, op .cit. this note; Amanda
Lilly, “The True Cost of Owning a Pet,” Kiplinger,
September 20 11 ; Pe t Ai r ways website, at
www.petairways.com; pet food from Elizabeth Hig-
gins, “Global Growth Trends: Sales in the Pre-
mium Segments Are Outpacing the Mid-Priced
and Economy Segments,” Petfoodindustry.com, 21
May 2007; Shanghai from Chris Hogg, “Shanghai
Announces ‘One-Dog Policy,’” BBC, 24 February
2011, and from Elaine Kurtenbach, “Shanghai’s
One-Dog Policy Causes Anguish for Some Own-
ers,” Huffington Post, 14 May 2011; humanization
from Packaged Facts Pet Analyst David Lummis,
U.S. Pet Market Outlook 2009–2010: Surviving
and Thriving in Challenging Times, PowerPoint
presentation, at www.packagedfacts.com/Pet-Out
look-Surviving-2154192/; Kimberly Garrison,
“Pet Owners Should Get Fat Cats and Dogs in
Shape,” Philly.com, 17 March 2011.
5. Mart ha Campbell, Nuriye Nal an Sahin-
Hodoglugil, and Malcolm Potts, “Barriers to Fer-
tility Regulation: A Review of the Literature,”
Studies in Family Planning, June 2006, pp. 87–98;
Americans’ support for access to contraception
from National Family Planning & Reproductive
Health Association, “Family Planning Facts: Poll
Finds Support for Access to Contraception,” at
SUSTAINABLEPROSPERITY.ORG 213
SUSTAINABLE PROSPERITY Notes
www.nfprha.org/main/family_planning.cfm?Catego
ry=Public_Support&Section=Access_Poll.
6. Dina Abu-Ghaida and Stephan Klasen, “The
Costs of Missing the Millennium Development
Goal on Gender Equity,” World Development, July
2004, pp. 1,075–107.
7. International Institute for Applied Systems
Analysis (IIASA), discussion with author, cited in
Robert Engelman, “Population & Sustainability:
Can We Avoid Limiting the Number of People?”
Scientific American Earth 3.0, summer 2009, pp.
22–29.
8. Educational attainment estimates for
1970–2000 by Wolfgang Lutz et al., “Reconstruc-
tion of Population by Age, Sex and Level of Edu-
cational Attainment of 120 Countries for
1970–2000,” Vienna Yearbook of Population
Research (Laxenburg, Austria: IIASA, 2007), pp.
193–235; projections by Samir K. C. et al., “Pro-
jection of Populations by Level of Educational
Attainment, Age, and Sex for 120 Countries for
2005–2050,” Demographic Research, vol. 22, no. 15
(2010), pp. 383–472; both datasets extrapolated by
author to world population from U.N. Population
Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revi-
sion Population Database, which has since been
superseded with some modest changes in popula-
tion estimates by a 2010 revision (see U.N. Popu-
lation Division, op. cit. note 1); remaining gender
gap from World Bank, Getting to Equal: Promoting
Gender Equality through Human Development
(Washington, DC: 2011).
9. Robert Engelman, “Women Slowly Close
Gender Gap With Men,” Vital Signs Online, 9
March 2011.
10. Ulla Larson and Marida Hollos, “Women’s
Empowerment and Fertility Decline among the
Pare of Kilimanjaro Region, Northern Tanzania,”
Social Science & Medicine, vol. 27, pp. 1,099–115.
11. These surveys are available at
www.measuredhs.com, viewed 8 November 2011.
12. Trisha E. Mueller, Lorrie E. Gavin, and Aniket
Kulkarni, “The Association between Sex Educa-
tion and Youth’s Engagement in Sexual Intercourse,
Age at First Intercourse, and Birth Control Use at
First Sex,” Journal of Adolescent Health, January
2008, pp. 89–96.
13. Lack of impacts from pro-natalist payment for
births from “Eliminating Targets, Incentives, and
Disincentives,” in Population Information Pro-
gram, Informed Choice in Family Planning: Help-
ing People Decide,Population Reports, spring 2001;
baby bonuses in Russia from Daniel Gross, “Chil-
dren for Sale: Would $36,000 Convince You to
Have Another Kid?” Slate.org, 24 May 2006; baby
bonuses in Singapore from Government of Singa-
pore, “Child Development Credits,” undated, at
www.babybonus.gov.sg/bbss/html/index.html.
14. Noriko O. Tsuyo, “Fertility and Family Poli-
cies in Nordic Countries, 1960–2000,” Journal of
Population and Social Security (Population), Sup-
plement to Volume 1 (Tokyo: National Institute of
Popul ation and Social Security Research) , at
www.ipss.go.jp/webj-ad/WebJournal.files/popu
lation/2003_6/4.Tsuya.pdf.
15. Population Connection website, at www
.populationeducation.org/index.php?option=com
_content&view=article&id=1&Itemid=2.
16. Warren Sanderson and Sergei Scherbov
Sanderson, “Remeasuring Aging,” Science, 10 Sep-
tember 2010, pp. 1,287–88.
Chapter 10. From Light Green to
Sustainable Buildings
1. U.N. Environment Programme (UNEP),
Towards a Green Economy: Pathways to Sustainable
Development and Poverty Eradication (Nairobi:
2011).
2. Population Division, 2009 Revision of World
Urbanization Prospects (New York: United Nations,
2010).
3. Table 10–1 from Kaarin Taipale, “Buildings
and Construction as Tools for Promoting More
Sustainable Patterns of Production and Consump-
tion,” Sustainable Development Innovation Briefs,
U.N. Department of Economic and Social Affairs,
New York, March 2010.
Moving Toward
SuSTainable
ProSPeriTy
The worldwaTch inSTiTuTe
State of the World 2012
STaTe of The world 2012
SCIENCE | ENVIRONMENT
2012
STaTe of The world
Moving Toward
Sustainable Prosperity
In 1992, governments at the Rio Earth Summit made a historic commitment to sustainable
development—an economic system that promotes the health of both people and ecosystems. Twenty
years and several summits later, human civilization has never been closer to ecological collapse, one
third of humanity lives in poverty, and another 2 billion people are projected to join the human race over
the next 40 years. How will we move toward sustainable prosperity equitably shared among all even
as our population grows, our cities strain to accommodate more and more people, and our ecological
systems decline?
To promote discussion around this vital topic at the Rio+20 U.N. Conference and beyond, State of
the World 2012: Moving Toward Sustainable Prosperity showcases innovative projects, creative policies,
and fresh approaches that are advancing sustainable development in the twenty-first century. In
articles from experts around the world, this report presents a comprehensive look at current trends in
global economics and sustainability, a policy toolbox of clear solutions to some of our most pressing
environmental and human challenges, and a path for reforming economic institutions to promote both
ecological health and prosperity.
Moving Toward Sustainable Prosperity is the latest publication in the Worldwatch Institute’s flagship State
of the World series, which remains the most recognized and authoritative resource for research and policy
solutions on critical global issues. State of the World 2012 builds on three decades of experience to offer
a clear, pragmatic look at the current state of global ecological systems and the economic forces that are
reshaping them—and how we can craft more-sustainable and equitable economies in the future.
“Top-ranked annual book on sustainable development.”
—GlobeScan survey of sustainability experts
“The most comprehensive, up-to-date, and accessible
summaries . . . on the global environment.”
—E. O. Wilson, Pulitzer Prize winner
Washington | Covelo | London
www.islandpress.org
All Island Press books are printed on recycled, acid-free paper.
Cover design by Lyle Rosbotham
Cover illustration by Wesley Bedrosian, wesleybedrosian.com
2012
Moving Toward
Sustainable Prosperity
