The use of flammable refrigerants, such as HC-290 (propane) as an alternative to HCFC-22 in room split air conditioners (SACs) is being pursued. However, there are concerns that at present the experience with SACs using HC-290 is small compared to the potential scale of use. Having said this, there is extensive experience with hydrocarbons (HCs) in domestic and small commercial refrigeration globally, where the market for HC-600a (iso-butane) appliances is several times that of SACs; such experience can be used to extrapolate the safety implications to the wider use of HCs in SACs. This study uses established quantitative risk assessment (QRA) methods to estimate the frequency and severity of ignition of HC-600a refrigeration appliances, which corresponds to the risk so far based on experience. The same methods are similarly applied to SACs using HC-290, adjusting for their particular physical and operational characteristics, to estimate a corresponding risk for the projected market of these appliances. The results show that the frequency and severity of ignition of the SACs are much lower than that for refrigerators on account of the installation characteristics of the SAC being more conducive for dispersion of leaked refrigerant and less potential for confinement in the event of deflagration.