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Walking away from terrorism: Accounts of disengagement from radical and extremist movements
Abstract
This accessible new book looks at how and why individuals leave terrorist movements, and considers the lessons and implications that emerge from this process. Focusing on the tipping points for disengagement from groups such as Al Qaeda, the IRA and the UVF, this volume is informed by the dramatic and sometimes extraordinary accounts that the terrorists themselves offered to the author about why they left terrorism behind. The book examines three major issues: what we currently know about de-radicalisation and disengagement, how discussions with terrorists about their experiences of disengagement can show how exit routes come about, and how they then fare as 'ex-terrorists' away from the structures that protected them, what the implications of these findings are for law-enforcement officers, policy-makers and civil society on a global scale. Concluding with a series of thought-provoking yet controversial suggestions for future efforts at controlling terrorist behaviour, Walking Away From Terrorism provides an comprehensive introduction to disengagement and de-radicalisation and offers policymakers a series of considerations for the development of counter-radicalization and de-radicalisation processes. This book will be essential reading for students of terrorism and political violence, war and conflict studies, security studies and political psychology.
... In order to address the social causes of terrorism, it is essential for counter-terrorism efforts to focus on fostering social cohesion, promoting integration and inclusivity, and addressing the underlying grievances and inequalities that contribute to the appeal of extremist ideologies . This may involve initiatives aimed at improving intergroup relations, enhancing social and economic opportunities for marginalized communities, and promoting tolerance and understanding between different cultural and religious groups (Horgan, 2009). ...
... Addressing the role of ethnic and religious cleavages in terrorism requires a multifaceted approach that seeks to promote intergroup understanding, foster social cohesion, and address the underlying grievances and inequalities that contribute to the appeal of extremist ideologies (Bjørgo, 2005). This may involve initiatives aimed at promoting dialogue and cooperation between different ethnic and religious groups, as well as efforts to ensure that all groups have equal access to social, economic, and political opportunities (Horgan, 2009). Additionally, it is important to recognize the complex interplay of psychological, social, political, and economic factors that contribute to the rise of terrorism and adopt a comprehensive approach to understanding and countering terrorism that takes into account these various factors. ...
... Research has shown that individuals who experience social exclusion and marginalization are more likely to be drawn to extremist groups that offer them a sense of belonging, purpose, and empowerment (Sageman, 2004;Horgan, 2009). For example, studies of radicalization in Western societies have found that many individuals who join extremist groups have experienced various forms of social exclusion, such as discrimination, unemployment, or social isolation King & Taylor, 2011). ...
In an increasingly interconnected world, the specter of terrorism continues to haunt societies across the globe. Terrorism has evolved over time, adapting to the changing contours of political, social, and economic landscapes. With its persistence and ability to cause widespread fear, terrorism poses significant challenges to global security, peace, and prosperity. It is, therefore, imperative to deepen our understanding of terrorism, its driving factors, and its various manifestations to develop effective strategies and policies to counter it. "Understanding Terrorism: Concepts, Theories, and Causes" aims to equip readers with the necessary knowledge and tools to comprehend this complex phenomenon and contribute to informed debates on counter-terrorism.
The lack of a universally accepted definition of terrorism has hindered our ability to fully understand and address the issue. This book critically engages with the existing definitions and acknowledges the political nature of the term, which has contributed to the difficulty in reaching a consensus. Despite this challenge, it is essential to investigate the theories that have emerged to explain the persistence of terrorism. By examining psychological, sociological, and political perspectives, we will delve into the multifaceted nature of terrorism and the factors that drive its occurrence.
A comprehensive understanding of terrorism necessitates an exploration of its causes. By analyzing individual, structural, and ideological factors, we seek to provide a nuanced understanding of the various drivers of terrorism. This book will focus on the political, economic, psychological, social, and cultural factors that underpin terrorism, shedding light on the conditions and motivations that give rise to such acts.
To ground our analysis in empirical evidence, we will examine a wide range of case studies from different regions and historical periods, illustrating the diverse forms and manifestations of terrorism. These case studies will help readers gain insights into the complex dynamics at play, the relationships between terrorist groups and their targets, and the broader political contexts within which these groups operate.
This book will also explore the potential emergence of a fifth wave of terrorism and the prospects for effective counterterrorism in the face of evolving challenges. By understanding the drivers of terrorism and the factors that shape its trajectory, I hope to empower readers to contribute to the development of sound strategies and policies for a more secure world.
... The fact that some fighters still choose to disengage/refuse even in the face of these barriers indicates the intensity of their motivation to do so. Such motivation can often be precipitated by cracks or inconsistencies that form in one's ideology or identity, themselves brought on by combat experiences that unsettle one's sense of self, interactions with the "enemy" that challenge one's preconceptions about them, or exposure to counter-narratives that reinterpret one's actions in a new, less savory light (Gutmann and Lutz, 2010;Hart and Stough-Hunter, 2017;Horgan, 2009;Wallace, 2017)-along with other "push" and "pull" factors unrelated to the violence itself, like disillusionment, exhaustion, family responsibilities, or the formation of new social connections beyond the armed organization (Altier, Thoroughgood and Horgan, 2014). ...
... As former White Aryan Resistance member (and later lah co-founder) Tony McAleer notes, "there's nothing more powerful-I know because it happened to me in my own life-than receiving compassion from someone who you don't feel you deserve it from, someone from a community that you had dehumanized" (Westervelt, 2018). "Formers" can serve as "credible" sources for such counter-narratives as part of this process, since they share similar life experiences and are familiar with the extremist ideologies in question (Horgan 2009) but have also developed a different understanding through their own learning process and life experience disengaging. As cracks begin to form in a current "fighter's" ideology-through perhaps surprising encounters with members of "out" groups, or maybe uncomfortable prodding from someone they respect-a "former" can be a sounding board to support them in pursuing the questions that may be lurking in the back-Wallace journal of pacifism and nonviolence 1 (2023) 236-268 ground. ...
... Here, again, is where the role of "formers" becomes so crucial: not only do they provide a model for the possibility of exit as well as serve as a sounding board for ideological questions that may be emerging (cultivating motivation), but they also constitute a new community to whom those exiting can belong, as well as a support system for working through the emotional and moral tumult that comes with reconsidering one's past involvement in violent extremism (thereby facilitating capability by addressing human needs in the exit process) (Altier, Thoroughgood and Horgan, 2014;Horgan, 2009). For instance, lah describes how its staff (mostly "formers") "talk openly about [their] own shame and guilt which in turn creates a safe space for [their] clients to do the same" (Life After Hate, 2021). ...
This article considers an unlikely source for non-militarized approaches to disrupting war and other forms of violence: fighters themselves. How can engaging with fighters/former fighters realize novel forms of violence/war disruption across various contexts, and what are the barriers to and implications of such engagement? Fighters’ exit from their armed organizations can be a source of violence/war disruption in two ways: first, through the sheer act of leaving and thereby diminishing the fighting capability of an armed organization, and, second, through using their credibility as former fighters to engage in activism to influence other current fighters, as well as the broader public, to refuse participation in or support for violence/war. Examining the work of “credible messengers,” “formers,” and anti-war veterans to disrupt street violence, extremist violence, and wartime violence, respectively, reveals surprising commonalities among them, as well as strikingly different reactions to their respective forms of disengagement/refusal and the policies they require.
... The present study examined an online incel community to understand the values of incels who exit their extremist online communities through the theoretical lens of deradicalization theory Horgan, 2008Horgan, , 2009Horgan & Altier, 2012;Horgan et al., 2017). Deradicalization theory refers to a set of ideas, approaches, and strategies aimed at countering and reducing radicalization in the context of extremism Horgan, 2008Horgan, , 2009Horgan & Altier, 2012;Horgan et al., 2017). ...
... The present study examined an online incel community to understand the values of incels who exit their extremist online communities through the theoretical lens of deradicalization theory Horgan, 2008Horgan, , 2009Horgan & Altier, 2012;Horgan et al., 2017). Deradicalization theory refers to a set of ideas, approaches, and strategies aimed at countering and reducing radicalization in the context of extremism Horgan, 2008Horgan, , 2009Horgan & Altier, 2012;Horgan et al., 2017). The goal of deradicalization is to prevent individuals who have been drawn into extremist ideologies from engaging in violence. ...
... The goal of deradicalization is to prevent individuals who have been drawn into extremist ideologies from engaging in violence. Thus, these efforts focus on disengaging individuals from extremist groups and beliefs and reintegrating them into mainstream society (Fink & Hearne, 2008, p. I;Horgan, 2008, 2009, Horgan & Altier, 2012Horgan et al., 2017). The key components of deradicalization theory include psychological factors, counter-narratives, education and awareness, social support and reintegration, community involvement, criminal and legal measures, and evaluation and assessment Horgan, 2008Horgan, , 2009Horgan & Altier, 2012;Horgan et al., 2017). ...
Involuntary celibates, known as incels, have gained media attention due to violent incidents involving members of their community. Previous studies have examined their violent norms, radical ideologies, and views on women, but none have explored why incels may disengage from the online incel community. This study utilizes a media content analysis framework to analyze data from an open-access forum (n = 237) and understand the values of former incels. Inductive media content analysis reveals four main themes: (1) leaving inceldom, (2) social interactions of incels, (3) self-conception of incels, and (4) the incel philosophy. These findings shed light on the dynamics within the incel community for those who abandon the incel lifestyle. Future research should investigate the reasons for incels leaving their community and explore strategies to support them in this process. Intervention approaches could be developed to assist incels during their transition.
... Terrorist disengagement is a dynamic and complex process (Altier, Thoroughgood & Horgan, 2014: 647). Drawing primarily on in-person interviews with former terrorists, research has identified push and pull factors that play a role in individual paths away from terrorist participation (Bjørgo, 2009;Horgan, 2009;Alonso, 2011;Reinares, 2011a;Reinares, 2011b). ...
... Firstly, a detailed chronological reconstruction of their radicalization, involvement, and disengagement was created. The personal narratives were scrutinized using a thematic analysis method to codify elements related to the dimensions of radicalization (Hafez & Mullins, 2015) and the push and pull factors (Bjørgo, 2009;Horgan, 2009) that influenced their disengagement. The longitudinal examination of each case sought to validate the presence of a dominant dimension motivating radicalization and assess whether its significance aligned with the main push and pull factors of disengagement. ...
Although terrorist disengagement is a dynamic process, this study proposes the likelihood of a continuity in the prevailing factors influencing exit from terrorism and the prevailing dimensions which initially influenced violent radicalization. Through the analysis of two contrasting cases featuring third-generation Muslims formerly involved in jihadist activities in Spain, we assess a connection between the prevailing push and pull factors which sparked individuals to cease their terrorist engagement and the predominant dimensions that earlier prompted the radicalization which led them to terrorist involvement. Drawing from in-depth interviews with the two former jihadists, Hassan and Omar, conducted while they were serving prison sentences for terrorism offences, we suggest that the significance of ideology and network in, respectively, their journeys from Islamic fundamentalism towards jihadism is similarly reflected in their accounts of ending jihadist involvement, even in the presence of secondary factors that also play a role in such a complex process.
... Groups may shift their focus, modify their goals, or adapt their narratives to remain relevant or appeal to new recruits. These ideological shifts further complicate efforts to counter terrorism (Horgan, 2009). ...
... Personal Trauma and Experiences: Some individuals who become terrorists have experiencedpersonal trauma, such as the loss of loved ones or exposure to violence. These experiences can fuel anger, resentment, and a desire for revenge, which terrorists may see as justification for their actions(Horgan, 2009). ...
Unveiling the Mind of Terrorists-Cracking the Code of Extremism Terrorism, a formidable global challenge, remains an enigma that threatens peace and stability. In this concise qualitative analysis, the writer embarks on an illuminating journey into the intricate minds of terrorists. By exploring the untapped potential of criminal profiling techniques, the writer exposes the hidden facets of their motivations, behaviours, and ideologies. Revealing Profound Insights: Delving into the psychological and behavioural traits of terrorists, this research uncovers profound insights that have eluded the world for too long. It beckons policymakers, security experts, and global citizens to explore fresh perspectives.
... Groups may shift their focus, modify their goals, or adapt their narratives to remain relevant or appeal to new recruits. These ideological shifts further complicate efforts to counter terrorism (Horgan, 2009). ...
... Personal Trauma and Experiences: Some individuals who become terrorists have experiencedpersonal trauma, such as the loss of loved ones or exposure to violence. These experiences can fuel anger, resentment, and a desire for revenge, which terrorists may see as justification for their actions(Horgan, 2009). ...
Terrorism, a formidable global challenge, remains an enigma that threatens peace and stability. In this concise qualitative analysis, the writer embarks on an illuminating journey into the intricate minds of terrorists. By exploring the untapped potential of criminal profiling techniques, the writer exposes the hidden facets of their motivations, behaviors, and ideologies. Revealing profound insights: Delving into the psychological and behavioral traits of terrorists, this research uncovers profound insights that have eluded the world for too long. It beckons policymakers, security experts, and global citizens to explore fresh perspectives.
... In an effort to overcome these flaws, a second body of work breaks away from causal approaches to investigate the "how" of radicalization (Horgan, 2009). The focus is on the processes and stages leading to radical engagement (Horgan, 2009;Collovald & Gaïti, 2006) and often based on the interactionist F o r P e e r R e v i e w O n l y tradition and on qualitative approaches (see Arena & Arrigo, 2005 for the U.S and Fillieule, 2010 for Europe). ...
... In an effort to overcome these flaws, a second body of work breaks away from causal approaches to investigate the "how" of radicalization (Horgan, 2009). The focus is on the processes and stages leading to radical engagement (Horgan, 2009;Collovald & Gaïti, 2006) and often based on the interactionist F o r P e e r R e v i e w O n l y tradition and on qualitative approaches (see Arena & Arrigo, 2005 for the U.S and Fillieule, 2010 for Europe). These studies consider the relationships between a political and ideological context, an organizational framework and an individual or group. ...
This analysis seeks to understand the appropriation or rejection of radicalism by two groups in a poor and immigrant neighborhood of Montreal. Yet although both defend the same causes and share the same progressive dimension, one presents itself as a group of non-radical citizens while the other presents itself as a group of radical activists. So for each group, what do these different definitions of identity enfold: citizens versus militants, non-radicals versus radicals? More than the acceptance and the use of violence, the investigation’s results reveal that the divergences observed illustrate a different construction of the intersection between social class and cultural or ethnic identity, and global and local boundaries, one which shapes specific democratic practices and relations to politics. This analysis outlines the relevance of not restricting the reflection on radicalism to a focus on the repertoire of collective action but rather exploring its meanings for citizens in their daily lives and its implications for their relations to politics. Finally, it also offers a concrete picture of left-wing ideological tensions and debates and how some grass roots organizations try (or do not try) to resolve them.
... However, the interview method is one of the most common qualitative research strategies used by terrorism scholars. Terrorism researchers have interviewed American, Asian, European, South American, African, and Middle-Eastern terrorists, as well as anti-abortion, left-wing, right-wing, eco and animal rights, Buddhist, Christian, Jewish, Islamic and Sikh terrorists, among others (see for e.g., Altier, Boyle, Shorthand, & Horgan, 2019;Azca, Ikhwan, & Arrobi, 2019;Berko & Erez, 2007;Blanchad & Prewitt, 1993;Bloom, 2005Bloom, , 2012Chernov Hwang, 2017;Della Porta, 1995;Horgan, 2004Horgan, , 2009Horgan, , 2012Jurgensmeyer, 2003;Kaplan, 1996;Kenney, 2018;Orsini, 2013;Post, Sprinzak, & Denny, 2003;Stern, 2003;White, 1993). ...
... Second, none of these interviews occurred before the individuals became terrorists and few were conducted while the offender was engaging in terrorism. Instead, most of the interviews were conducted after the individual had "retired" from terrorism, in many cases long after, and the questions often engaged issues that occurred in the distant past. 1 (Horgan 2009) notes that the "involvement and engagement in terrorism result in changes to those who join" (p. 4). ...
This paper identifies what we see as opportunities to improve data collection, analysis, and interpretation of findings in American and British terrorism research. We suggest seven directions that we see as promising. These include: 1) interview methods and reporting, 2) source reporting in database studies, prioritizing available court records, 3) more comparison groups, including non-offender activists for the same cause and non-political offenders, 4) comparison of cases with and without confidential informants, 5) extremist ideas and extremist violence studied as separate problems, 6) more attention to grievances, avoiding controversies over defining ideology and narrative, and 7) more attention to emotions of terrorists, their supporters, and their victims.
... In studies of far-right movements, this topic is usually studied under the term disengagement (e.g. Bjorgo 2008;DeMichele, Simi, and Blee 2024;Horgan 2009;Simi et al. 2019) and mainly pertains to studies of violent extremism. A systematic review by Windisch et al. (2016) examine factors linked to disengagement across different typologies of violent extremism and finds that two main dimensions are crucial: the first is Disillusionment --"the realisation that a consistent incongruence exists between idealised expectations and the everyday realities associated with those same expectations"(ibid. ...
This study examines the trajectory of the League, a populist-radical right party, which gained and subsequently lost significant consensus during its transformation from regionalism to nationalism. It also explores the party’s attempts to expand into non-traditional areas with varying degrees of success. Covering the period from 2012 to 2024, the research is based on interviews with party members and participant observation at public events conducted between 2021 and 2023.
The first objective is to analyze how the League has evolved over time, with particular emphasis on sub-national dynamics during periods of rapid growth and decline. The second objective investigates party change as a sociological process, integrating underexplored analytical dimensions in party politics scholarship—most notably the interplay between culture and political interactions. Finally, this research aims to explore the sociological understanding of the relationship between culture and political action, extending beyond the specific case of the League to examine the transformation of patterns of political action within organizations more broadly.
... According to Horgan [8] radicalization is the social and psychological process of incrementally experienced commitment to extremist political or religious ideology. Radicalization can lead to violent extremism and therefore it has become a major concern for national security. ...
Radicalization is the process by which people come to adopt increasingly extreme political, social or religious ideologies. When radicalization leads to violence, radical thinking becomes a threat to national security. De-radicalization programs are part of an effort to combat violent extremism and terrorism. This type of initiatives attempt to alter violent extremists radical beliefs and violent behavior with the aim to reintegrate them into society. In this paper we introduce a simple compartmental model suitable to describe de-radicalization programs. The population is divided into four compartments: (S) susceptible, (E) extremists, (R) recruiters, and (T) treatment. We calculate the basic reproduction number . For the system has one globally asymptotically stable equilibrium where no extremist or recruiters are present. For the system has an additional equilibrium where extremists and recruiters are endemic to the population. A Lyapunov function is used to show that, for , the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. We use numerical simulations to support our analytical results. Based on our model we asses strategies to counter violent extremism.
... For example, Borum (2011) suggests that "exclusion," "anger," and a search for "belonging" are critical factors influencing youth's involvement in radical groups. Similarly, Horgan (2008) argues that "radical ideologies create an attractive space that appeals to the psychosocial needs of young people, pushing them into a quest in conflict with the existing system." ...
"YOUTH AND SOCIAL DISRUPTIONS: A SOCIOLOGICAL EXAMINATION OF MARGINALIZATION, RADICALIZATION AND EXCLUSION CYCLES" CURRENT RESEARCH IN YOUTH
STUDIES içinde, ed.Assoc. Prof. Dr. Kasım TATLILIOĞLU, İstanbul: İksad Yayınevi, pp.43-67.
... Diğer yandan, güvenlik güçlerinin kanıt toplamak amacıyla terör örgütü mensuplarıyla iletişime geçmesi bu mensupların örgütten ayrılmalarını kolaylaştırıcı bir faktör olarak değerlendirilmektedir (Horgan, 2009b). ...
Bu çalışma, terör örgütü mensuplarına yönelik radikalleşmeden arındırma ile ilgili kavram ve süreçleri analitik olarak tartışmayı amaçlamaktadır. Betimsel analiz ve vaka çalışması gibi nitel araştırma yöntemlerini kullanan bu makale, radikalleşmeden arındırma programları ve süreçlerine ilişkin mevcut tartışmaları incelemektedir. Radikalleşmeden arındırma, doğası gereği zorlu bir süreç olmasına rağmen küresel ve bölgesel terörizm olgusunun yükseldiği günümüz bağlamında önemli bir kavram olarak görülmektedir. Zira terörizmin temel nedenlerinden birisi radikalleşmedir ve ancak radikalleşmeden arındırma çabalarıyla terörist faaliyetler önemli ölçüde engellenebilir. Dünya çapındaki sayısız örnek radikalleşme sürecinin ele alınmadığı ve terör örgütü mensuplarının şiddetten uzaklaştırılması için çaba sarf edilmediği takdirde terörizmin gelişmeye devam edebileceğini göstermiştir. Bu makale ilk olarak radikalleşmenin kavramsal çerçevesini ve ilgili terimleri ayrıntısıyla ortaya koymakta ve radikalleşme ile radikalleşmeden arındırma arasındaki kavramsal ilişkiyi tanımlamaktadır. Daha sonra, radikalleşmeden arındırma süreci için önerilen bir çerçeve olan silahsızlanma, silahlı örgütün dağıtılması ve yeniden entegrasyon (Disarmament - Demobilization - Reintegration / DDR) modelini incelemektedir. Makalenin vaka çalışması bölümünde Endonezya’da uygulanan radikalleşmeden arındırma yöntemleri detaylandırılmakta ve bu yöntemlerin yaklaşımı ve etkinliği derinlemesine analiz edilmektedir. Bu çalışma, radikalleşmenin teorik ve pratik yönlerinin kapsamlı bir incelemesini sunarak, radikalleşmeyle mücadele etmek ve sürdürülebilir kamu düzenini teşvik etmek için gerekli stratejilerin daha geniş bir şekilde anlaşılmasına katkıda bulunmayı amaçlamaktadır.
... Among these, it has been recognized that addressing the ideological elements of radicalization, which may also have a theological basis, is a highly complex and even burdensome process. Therefore, some experts maintain it is better to confine these types of interventions to focusing on disengagement, which, as seen earlier, pertains to shifting the attitudinal component "from offending to nonoffending", rather than pushing for a full questioning of the ideological and/or theological framework of radicalized individuals (see a review of the debate in Koehler 2017, p. 3;Horgan 2009;Noricks 2009; see also Butt and Tuck 2014, p. 3). ...
Radicalization continues to be considered a contentious concept with little consensus on what categorizes a movement or individual as “radical” (or extreme) [...]
... Second, our research aims to build on existing quantitative scholarship which has called for further research on the 'situational qualities of terrorists' behaviour . . . what terrorists do and how they do it' by 'disaggregating on a number of levels: within the cadre of operatives, across terrorist attacks, across targets, and within conflicts' (Gill, Horgan, and Corner 2019, 930;Horgan 2009). Third, research on terrorism in Northern Ireland has been eclectic to include: British state responses to terrorism (Finegan 2016;Lynch 2023;McConaghy 2017;Rolston 2005;Spilerman and Stecklov 2009;Wilkinson 2019); the tactics used by terrorists (Asal et al. 2015;MacLeod 1996); and the shifting sociological and operational profile of IRA volunteers (Gill and Horgan 2013). ...
... This process often starts with individuals in vulnerable situations. It follows distinct phases where targets, typically identified in vulnerable contexts, undergo psychological, doctrinal, and violent radicalisation (González et al., 2022;Horgan, 2009). The core issue is the divide between 'us' and 'them'. ...
... Some have even referred to prisons as "schools for crime" or "schools for terrorism" (Gendreau et al., 1999;Jones, 2014). Prisons 1 For details, see Bjørgo (2004), Brynjar and Skjølberg (2000), Crenshaw (1981Crenshaw ( , 2000, Francis (2012), Hafez and Mullins (2015), Horgan (2005Horgan ( , 2009 have been identified as incubators of extreme ideas, training grounds for militant activities, recruitment centers or headquarters for ideological extremists, and breeding grounds or universities for terrorism (Brandon, 2009a;Cilluffo et al., 2006;Rahaman, 2017;Useem & Clayton, 2009). ...
Prison radicalization poses a significant and evolving threat in Bangladesh's correctional facilities. This research article delves into the conditions fostering radicalization, including corruption, overcrowding, violence, and the lack of essential amenities. Drawing on extensive analysis of secondary data and expert interviews, this article argues that these conducive conditions have transformed Bangladeshi prisons into breeding grounds for radical ideologies, allowing militants to establish networks and plan attacks within and beyond prison confines. This article also points out the transformation of prisoners, even those with minimal radical tendencies, into militant leaders, along with the shift of non‐radical individuals toward extremism. Moreover, it underscores the lack of de‐radicalization programs within the current prison system as a crucial gap in countering this escalating issue. Furthermore, the research identifies societal denial, limited post‐release opportunities, and mistreatment by security forces as factors exacerbating radicalization post‐incarceration. As such, this study emphasizes the urgent need for comprehensive strategies to address prison radicalization.
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Heinmiller, B. Timothy, Matthew A. Hennigar, and Sandra Kopec. 2017. “Degenerative Politics and Youth Criminal Justice Policy in Canada.” Politics & Policy 45(3): 406–31. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12204 .
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... El debate en esta esfera es complejo. Las políticas de seguridad humana han sido vistas como alternativas de prevención contra la radicalización terrorista (Horgan, 2009) o el involucramiento en el crimen organizado trasnacional (Weisburd, 2018), pero las medidas de fuerza terminan reforzando los agravios políticos y económicos que estas políticas podrían aliviar (Call, 2012;Serrano, 2021). ...
La naturaleza del Objetivo de Desarrollo Sostenible (ODS) 16 refleja la complejidad de la relación entre desarrollo, paz, clima y seguridad en el marco de la Organización de las Naciones Unidas (ONU). Los temas referentes a Promover sociedades pacíficas e inclusivas para el desarrollo sostenible, proporcionar acceso a la justicia para todos y construir instituciones eficaces, responsables e inclusivas en todos los niveles no estaban en la agenda clásica de desarrollo económico y social de los Objetivos del Milenio que precedieron los ODS. Al crear este ODS en particular, se integraron temas que no han sido connaturales entre los dos subsistemas de la ONU: el sistema de temas políticos internacionales y los temas de desarrollo.
... We derived various arguments from here. As recommended by Horgan (2009), Postdoctoral Researcher Ayşenur Benevento called researchers to stop looking for "profiles" and start mapping "pathways" when studying violent radicalisation, as well as shift their attention from "root causes" to "outer qualities" (Benevento 2023a). The study of those outer qualities involves the examination of contextually meaningful parameters and determination of the ideal environment in the variation of radicalisation experiences as different people become radicalised in various ways and over various issues. ...
ERC Prime Youth Policy Brief Final
ERC Prime Youth Policy Brief Final, 2023
This policy paper aims to address policy options, outcomes, and proposals related to radicalisation among European youths, with a focus on the historical juncture marked by the escalation of ethnocultural and religious tensions in the EU. Contrary to the scholarship that studies European youth in separate clusters divided by ethnicity, culture, and religion, such as “Muslim-origin” and “native”, we analyse Islamist and nativist radicalisations through a single scientific lens. See https://bpy.bilgi.edu.tr
... Deradicalisation is viewed as a social and psychological process that emphasizes individual commitment to reduce participation in violent activities to a low-risk level (Horgan, 2009). There are three components to the deradicalisation program: reduction, rehabilitation, and resocialisation and reintegration. ...
Objective: This study aims to evaluate and describe the dynamics of deradicalization policies in preventing terrorism. Terrorism has caused security disturbances, and damage in many countries. Various theories and perspectives regarding de-radicalization policies have been developed in many countries to avoid acts of radicalism and terrorism. Case studies regarding de-radicalization policy initiatives in various nations must be researched in greater depth in order to find the optimal synthesis model. Theoretical framework: Radicalism and terrorism are two types of international crimes that are extremely damaging to society and the Nations (Nashir & Si, 2019). Radicalism is not the same as terrorism, But both of them are closely connected (Nashir & Si, 2019). This crime has a substantial and catastrophic impact on individuals, communities, and the state (Taskarina et al., 2022) The United Nations Session in Vienna, Austria in 2000, concluded that acts of extremism and terrorism are serious crimes that must be dealt with swiftly via international collaboration (Phelps, 2021). In different nations, the De-radicalization policy program has shown to be a successful method of reducing radical activities and terrorism. De-radicalization is accomplished by increasing understanding among perpetrators of radicals, terrorists, through socialization and education (Petrus Reinhard Golose, 2009; Safii, 2019; Sembiring, 2019) Method: This study uses a systematic literature review technique, in the field of de-radicalization policies to prevent acts of radicalism and terrorism. Our research strategy is based on the idea that a full understanding of research findings requires comparison with other research findings. The author searches the database with Scopus; PubMed (Medline); Google Scholarship; JSTOR; CONTENT Web of Science for papers. And using the following inclusion criteria: (1)articles in Indonesian and English with a full text published in open access journals, peer-reviewed, and in the last 5 (five) years of publication in 2019-2023; (2)related articles with titles and abstracts; (3)keywords: Deradicalisation; Radicalism, Terrorism; Policy Implementation; National Counter Terrorism Agency; and (4) research methods. Titles and abstracts were checked to see if the inclusion criteria were one, two, three, and four. The results are obtained based on the integration of evidence from previous studies that have been identified and analyzed through patterns, trends, or conclusions that can help strengthen understanding in the field of De-radicalization policy research. Results and Conclusions: The synthesis research show that the success rate of De-radicalization policy implementation, will depend on the design of the program on the variable content of the policy. De-radicalization must be interpreted as work that emerges after the basics of radicalism have been identified. Because every perpetrator of radicalism is different and varied, further studies are needed to produce a more comprehensive and adaptive De-radicalization module. The combination of hard tactics and soft approaches adopted by the government in dealing with radicalism and terrorism has advantages and disadvantages. In the context of the fight against terrorism and radicalism, the concept of De-radicalization must be used for the fight against "the ideology", for "counter-radicalism and/or counter-terrorism". Implications of the research: The De-radicalization policy strategy is oriented towards persuasive, proactive, and adaptive actions, as well as protecting human rights. It is carried out using the "ideological awareness" approach through education and outreach. The concept of De-radicalization must be strengthened by the government's commitment to eliminating social and economic inequality. The De-radicalization program is carried out holistically and inclusively, by involving all levels of society and cross-sectoral collaboration. Originality/value: The novelty of this research is the establishment of a theoretical model for De-radicalization programs based on a synthesis of case studies with various complexities and variables originating from different countries with different origins and different challenges. In order to provide suggestions for decision-makers that are more comprehensive, adaptable, and representative.
... Comme le soulignent dans leurs articles Nicolas Amadio et Rachel Sarg, les pratiques sociojudiciaires en matière de réintégration sociale des personnes radicalisées ont la particularité de poursuivre plusieurs objectifs : la réinsertion sociale, la surveillance, le désengagement et parfois la déradicalisation. Si les notions de désengagement et de désistance semblent désormais préférées à celle de déradicalisation (Blokland et Van der Geest, 2017), le manque d'usage stabilisé des notions employées dans les pratiques de réintégration et les recherches sur ce processus (Horgan, 2009) est un obstacle important à l'efficacité des programmes actuels. Par ailleurs, l'analyse des facteurs de désengagement et de réinsertion doit se faire au regard non seulement des dimensions individuelles et collectives, mais aussi des attentes et des valeurs de l'ensemble des acteurs, bénéficiaires et intervenants (Windisch et al., 2016 ;Chernov Hwang, 2017 ;Altier et al., 2014 ;Van der Heide et Shuurman, 2016). ...
Dans Cahiers de la sécurité et de la justice Cahiers de la sécurité et de la justice 2023/2 (N° 58) 2023/2 (N° 58), pages 4 à 12 Éditions Institut des hautes études du ministère de l'Intérieur Institut des hautes études du ministère de l'Intérieur Distribution électronique Cairn.info pour Institut des hautes études du ministère de l'Intérieur. Distribution électronique Cairn.info pour Institut des hautes études du ministère de l'Intérieur. La reproduction ou représentation de cet article, notamment par photocopie, n'est autorisée que dans les limites des conditions générales d'utilisation du site ou, le cas échéant, des conditions générales de la licence souscrite par votre établissement. Toute autre reproduction ou représentation, en tout ou partie, sous quelque forme et de quelque manière que ce soit, est interdite sauf accord préalable et écrit de l'éditeur, en dehors des cas prévus par la législation en vigueur en France. Il est précisé que son stockage dans une base de données est également interdit.
... Son varios los autores que debaten en torno a las teorías que explican la predisposición a matar y a morir por parte de los grupos terroristas. Algunos de los estudiosos del fenómeno ponen el acento en la fusión de identidad con el colectivo (Horgan, 2009;Whitehouse et al., 2014), mientras otros lo hacen en el papel determinante que cumple la ideología homogenizando el «deber ser» de los subversivos (Kruglanski, 2006;Dono et al., 2022). Para Gómez Jiménez et al. (2016), las teorías más plausibles al respecto son dos: la fusión de la identidad con un grupo, es decir, conseguir una integración tal con el grupo que se termina por percibir lo personal como colectivo; y la teoría de los valores sagrados, que considera a los valores que los subversivos defienden como no negociables. ...
Para el Partido Comunista del Perú-Sendero Luminoso (PCP-SL), que, entre los años 1980 y 1992, sostuvo un enfrentamiento contra el Estado peruano que costó casi 70 000 vidas, la ideología era el vehículo principal para la consecución de la sociedad comunista a la que aspiraba. Con el propósito de conseguir cohesión ideológica durante el conflicto y, después del mismo, la construcción de una memoria que facilite su participación en la política legal, promovió la creación de un tipo concreto de arte. El presente trabajo describirá el «arte de nuevo tipo» a través de la obra poética de dos militantes del PCP-SL: Elena Yparraguirre, segunda esposa de Abimael Guzmán, y Wilfredo Mujica, exdirector de la Asociación de Excarcelados Políticos del Perú. La investigación nos permitirá contrastar los esfuerzos del PCP-SL con los de otros movimientos latinoamericanos en la formación de un corpus poético e ideológico, y conocer en primera persona al sujeto subversivo.
... Comme le soulignent dans leurs articles Nicolas Amadio et Rachel Sarg, les pratiques sociojudiciaires en matière de réintégration sociale des personnes radicalisées ont la particularité de poursuivre plusieurs objectifs : la réinsertion sociale, la surveillance, le désengagement et parfois la déradicalisation. Si les notions de désengagement et de désistance semblent désormais préférées à celle de déradicalisation (Blokland et Van der Geest, 2017), le manque d'usage stabilisé des notions employées dans les pratiques de réintégration et les recherches sur ce processus (Horgan, 2009) est un obstacle important à l'efficacité des programmes actuels. Par ailleurs, l'analyse des facteurs de désengagement et de réinsertion doit se faire au regard non seulement des dimensions individuelles et collectives, mais aussi des attentes et des valeurs de l'ensemble des acteurs, bénéficiaires et intervenants (Windisch et al., 2016 ;Chernov Hwang, 2017 ;Altier et al., 2014 ;Van der Heide et Shuurman, 2016). ...
La réintégration sociale des personnes condamnées pour faits de terrorisme et des détenus suspectés de radicalisation constitue l’un des principaux défis sociaux des années à venir et une préoccupation considérable pour les acteurs de la justice, de la police, de l’administration pénitentiaire et du travail social. Contrairement au silence qui demeure en France à ce sujet, d’importantes institutions internationales, telles que le Conseil de l’Europe et les Nations unies, ont créé des programmes de veille et de soutien aux dispositifs d’intervention en matière de réintégration sociale des extrémistes violents .
Ce numéro des Cahiers de la sécurité et de la justice analyse les principaux enjeux de la réintégration sociale des personnes condamnées pour terrorisme et s’articule autour de trois objectifs. Le premier est d’appréhender le processus de réintégration sociale à partir des ressources collectives et individuelles de désengagement de l’extrémisme violent. Le deuxième est d’étudier les nouvelles logiques décisionnelles dans la gestion des risques de violence terroriste. Enfin, le troisième objectif de ce numéro est de mettre en perspective les enjeux de l’évaluation sur la réintégration sociale des personnes condamnées ou suspectées de terrorisme et de radicalisation menant à la violence.
... But it has also shown the need to provide a convincing definition of the difference between radicalization as an attitude and its embodiment in actual violent behaviour (Pugliese, 2018). For not all harmful or violent actions stem from violent radicalization, not all terrorist actions embrace radical ideologies, and therefore violent radicalization should not be confused with terrorist behaviour (Francis, 2014;Horgan, 2009;Striegher, 2015). ...
This article distinguishes between attitudes towards extremism and attitudes towards violence and illegal acts. It operationalizes both groups of attitudes based on the proposed scales by Ozer and Bertelsen (2018), which are validated for the Spanish case. The combination of the two sets of attitudes favours the use of violence to pursue radical ideological, religious, or political views. The literature on the subject is reviewed, and the results of an exploratory study based on a questionnaire administered to adolescents attending 4 schools in Almería and 1 in Madrid (n = 1170), carried out in May 2022, are presented. The results of two multiple regressions on the indices of extremism and pro-violent and illegal acts, allow us to conclude that the boys, the youngest, of foreign parents, of mothers with a low educational level, right-wing, those who most frequently attend religious centres, show more extremism, and pro-violence and illegal acts attitudes. Those who believe that there is discrimination against LGTBI+ people are more extremist but not more pro-violence. Finally, those who belong to poor families, use many social networks a day, and have suffered physical violence show more pro-violence attitudes and illegal acts, but not more extremism. These results suggest that it is necessary to prioritize transforming violent extremism, especially among the most vulnerable groups.
... Some authors have identified the type of questions that should be included, some tips for understanding the significance of interviews, how framing initial meetings and reactions, the different interview styles, and also the benefits, challenges and limitations of interviewing terrorists (see Horgan, 2009Horgan, , 2012. However, we have learned through our experience that the ability to talk to radicals is not merely a list of recommendations for the face-to-face encounter, but that involves more requirements that would facilitate the work of the investigator. ...
Imagine that you are a researcher interested in disentangling the underlying mechanisms that motivate certain individuals to self-sacrifice for a group or an ideology. Now, visualize that you are one of a few privileged that have the possibility of interviewing people who have been involved in some of the most dramatic terrorist attacks in history. What should you do? Most investigations focused on terrorism do not include empirical data and just a handful of fortunate have made face-to-face interviews with these individuals. Therefore, we might conclude that most experts in the field have not directly met the challenge of experiencing studying violent radicalization in person. As members of a research team who have talked with individuals under risk of radicalization, current, and former terrorists, our main goal with this manuscript is to synopsize a series of ten potential barriers that those interested in the subject might find when making fieldwork, and alternatives to solve them. If all the efforts made by investigators could save the life of a potential victim, prevent an individual from becoming radicalized, or make him/her decide to abandon the violence associated with terrorism, all our work will have been worthwhile.
Depuis deux décennies, la plupart des gouvernements et pays affectés par le terrorisme se sont saisis d’une préoccupation majeure autour du lien causal entre l’adhésion à des croyances et la commission d’actes violents. Cependant, et malgré l’augmentation des travaux et programmes, il demeure toujours de nombreux obstacles méthodologiques et théoriques permettant d’établir un corpus d’interventions validées et fondées sur les données acquises par la science. L’objectif de cet article est d’analyser la place des facteurs que sont les croyances radicales dans les principaux modèles théoriques utilisés dans le domaine de la déradicalisation et du désengagement de l’extrémisme violent. À partir des résultats observés par les principales recherches, nous reviendrons plus spécifiquement sur les enjeux et conséquences qu’elles soulèvent en particulier dans leur intégration à des programmes de prise en charge de l’extrémisme violent. Notre propos interroge plus particulièrement les grandes orientations des programmes français en milieu fermé et en milieu ouvert au niveau cognitif à partir notamment de la perception des acteurs ciblés par ces interventions.
This paper explores the self-transformation of a former terrorist in Indonesia who is building a role as an activist against violent extremism. This case study focuses on the former extremist’s process of self-change. The participant is a 42-year-old male who was a member of Jemaah Islamiyah (JI), and who was captured in 2014 and imprisoned. The paper draws on in-depth interviews conducted with this individual and his wife. The findings explore how he became involved in JI, arising from a sense of solidarity with the global jihadist movement and the need for self-significance. The process of self-change is explored, relating to the impact of encounters in prison and an increasing awareness of the burden his actions had on his family and the way terrorism framed Islam and Muslims in a negative light. This transition led this former extremist to become a member of an NGO campaigning against violent extremism. This study provides insight into the role of self-transformation in the disengagement and reintegration process.
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This paper introduces intra-community brakes on domestic violent extremism within the Czech Romani minority. We discuss how the community's ties to nonviolent networks, approach to ideology, and family attachment worked against manifestations of violent extremism during three major episodes of political violence affecting the Romani in Czechia. The study draws on extensive empirical data gathered through ethnographic and netnographic methods and analytical tools provided by constructivist grounded theory for data analysis. Our work aims to contribute to the growing body of scholarship on the role of protective factors in preventing engagement in extreme forms of political violence. It would also like to encourage scholarly debate on the notion of marginalized groups as active agents maintaining security within their own communities.
Bu çalışmada çevrimiçi radikalleşmeyle mücadelede çevrimiçi ortamdan ve araçlardan nasıl yaralanabileceği üzerine bir çerçeve çizilmesi planlanmaktadır. Günümüzde radikalleşmeyle mücadele ve radikalleşmenin tersine döndürülmesi güvenlik güçlerinin önemli bir sorumluluğuyken, her ne kadar yeni bir olgu olmasa da oldukça dinamik ve karmaşık bir nitelikte olması nedeniyle çevrimiçi radikalleşme özel bir meydan okuma muhteva etmektedir. Çevrimiçi ortamın her türlü arayışı ve paylaşımı kolaylaştırıcı etkisi, radikalleşmenin gerçekleşmesinde oldukça belirleyicidir. Bu nedenle günümüzde geleneksel yüz yüze ve grup içi radikalleşmeden daha yoğun ve etkili şekilde çevrimiçi ortamların kullanılması kapsamlı bir inceleme yapılmasını gerekli kılmaktadır. Bunun yanında radikalleşmenin önlenmesi ve ilgili mücadele için uygulanan pek çok strateji bulunurken, çevrimiçi boyutun temele alındığı bir analizin yapılması bu çalışmanın temel eğilim noktasıdır. Çevrimiçi radikalleşmenin geleneksel radikalleşmeden oldukça farklı özellikler göstermesi, ilgili önleme ve mücadele faaliyetlerinin de kendine has özelliklerinin olmasını gerektirmektedir. Özellikle çevrimiçi platformların ve araçların çevrimiçi radikalleşmeyle mücadele kullanılmasına yönelik öneriler bu çalışmanın özel yönünü yansıtacaktır. Çalışma öncelikle çevrimiçi radikalleşme üzerine bilgilendirici bir bölümle başlayacak, izleyen bölümde radikalleşme ve çevrimiçi radikalleşmeyle mücadelede çevrimiçi stratejiler üzerine bir tartışma ortaya konulacaktır. Sonuç bölümünde ise internet ve teknolojideki gelişimin radikal gruplar tarafından ne şekilde kullanılmaya devam edeceğine yönelik bir risk değerlendirmesi yapılacaktır. Böylece çevrimiçi radikalleşme ve deradikalleşme özelinde, radikalleşme literatürüne katkı sağlanması amaçlanmaktadır.
Background
Increasingly, counter‐radicalisation interventions are using case management approaches to structure the delivery of tailored services to those at risk of engaging in, or engaged in, violent extremism. This review sets out the evidence on case management tools and approaches and is made up of two parts with the following objectives.
Objectives
Part I: (1) Synthesise evidence on the effectiveness of case management tools and approaches in interventions seeking to counter radicalisation to violence. (2) Qualitatively synthesise research examining whether case management tools and approaches are implemented as intended, and the factors that explain how they are implemented. Part II: (3) Synthesise systematic reviews to understand whether case management tools and approaches are effective at countering non‐terrorism related interpersonal or collective forms of violence. (4) Qualitatively synthesise research analysing whether case management tools and approaches are implemented as intended, and what influences how they are implemented. (5) Assess the transferability of tools and approaches used in wider violence prevention work to counter‐radicalisation interventions.
Search Methods
Search terms tailored for Part I and Part II were used to search research repositories, grey literature sources and academic journals for studies published between 2000 and 2022. Searches were conducted in August and September 2022. Forward and backward citation searches and consultations with experts took place between September 2022 and February 2023. Studies in English, French, German, Russian, Swedish, Norwegian and Danish were eligible.
Selection Criteria
Part I: Studies had to report on a case management intervention, tool or approach, or on specific stages of the case management process. Only experimental and stronger quasi‐experimental studies were eligible for inclusion in the analysis of effectiveness. The inclusion criteria for the analysis of implementation allowed for other quantitative designs and qualitative research. Part II: Systematic reviews examining a case management intervention, tool or approach, or stage(s) of the case management process focused on countering violence were eligible for inclusion.
Data Collection and Analysis
Part I: 47 studies were eligible for Part I. No studies met the inclusion criteria for Objective 1; all eligible studies related to Objective 2. Data from these studies was synthesised using a framework synthesis approach and presented narratively. Risk of bias was assessed using the CASP (for qualitative research) and EPHPP (for quantitative research) checklists. Part I: Eight reviews were eligible for Part II. Five reviews met the inclusion criteria for Objective 3, and seven for Objective 4. Data from the studies was synthesised using a framework synthesis approach and presented narratively. Risk of bias was assessed using the AMSTAR II tool.
Findings
Part I: No eligible studies examined effectiveness of tools and approaches. Seven studies examined the implementation of different approaches, or the assumptions underpinning interventions. Clearly defined theories of change were absent, however these interventions were assessed as being implemented in line with their own underlying logic. Forty‐three studies analysed the implementation of tools during individual stages of the case management process, and forty‐one examined the implementation of this process as‐a‐whole. Factors which influenced how individual stages and the case management process as a whole were implemented included strong multi‐agency working arrangements; the inclusion of relevant knowledge and expertise, and associated training; and the availability of resources. The absence of these facilitators inhibited implementation. Additional implementation barriers included overly risk‐oriented logics; public and political pressure; and broader legislation. Twenty‐eight studies identified moderators that shaped how interventions were delivered, including delivery context; local context; standalone interventions; and client challenges. Part II: The effectiveness of two interventions – mentoring and multi‐systemic therapy – in reducing violent outcomes were each assessed by one systematic review, whilst three reviews analysed the impact that the use of risk assessment tools (n = 2) and polygraphs (n = 1) had on outcomes. All these reviews reported mixed results. Comparable factors to those identified in Part I, such as staff training and expertise and delivery context, were found to shape implementation. On the basis of this modest sample, the research on interventions to counter non‐terrorism related violence was assessed to be transferable to counter‐radicalisation interventions.
Authors' Conclusions
The effectiveness of existing case management tools and approaches is poorly understood, and research examining the factors that influence how different approaches are implemented is limited. However, there is a growing body of research on the factors which facilitate or generate barriers to the implementation of case management interventions. Many of the factors and moderators relevant to countering radicalisation to violence also impact how case management tools and approaches used to counter other forms of violence are implemented. Research in this wider field seems to have transferable insights for efforts to counter radicalisation to violence. This review provides a platform for further research to test the impact of different tools, and the mechanisms by which they inform outcomes. This work will benefit from using the case management framework as a way of rationalising and analysing the range of tools, approaches and processes that make up case managed interventions to counter radicalisation to violence.
From a peacebuilding perspective, understanding the factors that lead to radicalization is the first step in preventing political violence, resisting its effects, and building solid pillars for peace. Along these lines, this research aims to explore the relationship between economic factors and radicalization, particularly between unemployment and support for political violence. As previous research has shown contradictory results, we suggest the need to explore the psychological factors that mediate the relationship between unemployment and support for political violence. Particularly, we suggest social alienation and moral disengagement. Therefore, we hypothesize that (Hypothesis 1) the unemployed will present greater social alienation, (Hypothesis 2) a greater sense of social alienation will be associated with greater support for political violence, and the relationship between employment status and political violence will be mediated by (Hypothesis 3) social alienation and (Hypothesis 4) moral disengagement. A study was conducted to test these hypotheses using a sample of employed (N = 281) and unemployed (N = 285) Spanish participants in Southern Spain. Participants completed a paper questionnaire in which they reported their employment status, social alienation, moral disengagement, and support for political violence. The results showed that the hypotheses were fulfilled and that social alienation and moral disengagement mediated the relationship between unemployment and political violence. According to these results, unemployment may encourage support for violence for political purposes. For this to be the case, perceptions of rejection must be considered. This underscores the need for interventions aimed at the welfare of the unemployed as well as their integration into society.
This chapter sets the scene for the entire book, which is based on a qualitative study involving fifty-one in-depth interviews with American Muslims from nine states of the United States of America. It investigates why some young American Muslims have joined terrorist organizations such as al-Qaeda and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and what American Muslims think about the radicalization of some Muslims. It discusses the literature on identity and radicalization and seeks to understand why some Muslims endorse the jihadi ideology. It frames the radicalization discussion within the broader framework of Muslim–Christian relations from a historical and geopolitical point of view. The chapter includes a discussion of the research methodology, challenges, and limitations of the study. It also discusses the structure of the book in a thematic manner.
Terrorism experts continue to debate how and why people become radicalised and commit violence. Significantly less emphasis and coherence of thought has been deployed to understand those processes in reverse. From the perspective of counterterrorism practitioners within both government and civil society, the question has tended to bifurcate around two contrasting conceptual approaches: should the focus be on ‘deradicalization’ (an internal or philosophical outcome seeking change in beliefs, values and attitudes) or ‘disengagement’ (a social or temporal outcome seeking change in behaviours away from violence)? This article seeks to contribute to the debate about how disengagement functions and stands as a practical and effective counterterrorism methodology, and is based on detailed analysis of field work and project implementation in Indonesia. This article and the methodologies implemented and tested are grounded in previous research on disengagement of Indonesian jihadists and countering violent extremism (CVE) projects conducted by several of the authors over many years, and extends and codifies the findings of a valuable body of earlier academic literature. The authors argue that a disengagement process grounded in the social methodology of personal mentoring (defined infra this paper by a process we have called ‘Hearts, Hands and Heads’) can achieve a measurable and meaningful change in how individuals withdraw from violent extremist networks. This article will further show why disengagement programs in Indonesia should prioritise targeting specific at-risk groups, including returned foreign fighters, who have been known to conduct terrorist activities in Indonesia as well as advocate for their cause and recruit more effectively than those that have never been to Syria or other conflict zones. With the proper implementation, disengagement can be an effective preventive tool in Indonesia in addition to preparing the groundwork for later, more formal deradicalization processes and programs.
Despite the extraordinary support of so many people, any mistakes or omissions in the text remain our own.
Radicalisation leading to violent extremism is a multidimensional y complex challenge, which can only be overcome through a combination of actions in various policy fields. Individual action y factors outside the school, including individuals y groups, but also structural injustices, family conditions y parental values, etc., must be taken into account. For a long time, international organisations y national governments have prioritised security measures over preventive ones. Education is being used in both approaches, but its preventive function is only beginning to develop since the adoption of the UN Plan of Action to Prevent Violent Extremism. However, the direct effect of education on radicalisation depends not only on what is taught in the classroom but also on how it is taught, which is why the content of curricula, the pedagogical methods used y the values instilled in educational institutions are equally relevant. This research analyses the international y European frameworks that address education as a tool for preventing violent extremism y contrasts them with the recently approved Islamic religion curriculum, in order to comply with the competency-based approach inspired by Organic Law 3/2020, of 29 December, which amends Organic Law 2/2006, of 3 May, on Education (LOMLOE). The final balance of the curriculum analysis is positive. It does not contain «specific» curricular elements for the prevention of violent extremism, but it does contain many aspects «related» to the phenomenon, as well as valuable alternative narratives that focus on shared values y behaviours that help to prevent radicalisation La radicalización que conduce al extremismo violento es un reto multidimensional y complejo, que solo puede superarse mediante una combinación de acciones en diversos ámbitos políticos. La acción del individuo y los factores externos a la escuela, incluidos los individuos y los grupos, pero también las injusticias estructurales, las condiciones familiares y los valores de los padres, etc., deben tenerse en cuenta. Durante tiempo, las organizaciones internacionales y los gobiernos nacionales han priorizado las medidas securitarias sobre las preventivas. La educación está siendo utilizada con ambos enfoques, pero su función preventiva solo empieza a desarrollarse a partir de la aprobación del Plan de Acción para Prevenir el Extremismo Violento de la ONU. Ahora bien, el efecto directo de la educación en la radicalización depende no solo de lo que se enseña en el aula sino de cómo se enseña, por eso son igualmente relevantes el contenido de los planes de estudio, los métodos pedagógicos empleados y los valores que se inculcan en las instituciones educativas. Esta investigación analiza los marcos internacionales y europeos que abordan la educación como herramienta de prevención del extremismo violento y los contrasta con el currículum de religión islámica recientemente aprobado, para dar cumplimiento al enfoque competencial que inspira la Ley Orgánica 3/2020, de 29 de diciembre, por la que se modifica la Ley Orgánica 2/2006, de 3 de mayo, de Educación (LOMLOE). El balance final del análisis del currículo es positivo. En él no figuran elementos curriculares «específicos» de la prevención del extremismo violento, pero sí constan abundantes aspectos «relacionados» con el fenómeno, como también valiosas narrativas alternativas que inciden en los valores compartidos y en los comportamientos que ayudan a prevenir la radicalización
Objective: Most theories attempting to explain radicalization processes focus on psychological and structural factors. However, the vast majority of empirical studies only consider psychological or structural factors separately. Therefore, this research aims to provide evidence of the relationship between psychological and structural factors in radicalization processes. Method: We used data from the Fénix Andalucía project, which collects student responses focused on the psychological factors proposed by the 3N model of radicalization (N = 4,161) and combines them with the economic, social, and cultural status index (ESCS) of each of the educational centers (N = 86). Results: After performing multilevel regression models using support for violent narratives as the criterion variable, we found that both psychological factors proposed by the 3N model and ESCS appeared to be significant predictors. In addition, we found that the relationship between having a deviant network and supporting violent narratives was stronger when participants studied in a center with lower ESCS. Conclusions: Psychological factors appear to have a greater impact on support for violent narratives, although structural factors are also of some importance and may interact with psychological factors. It follows from these conclusions that violent extremism prevention programs would improve if, in addition to considering psychological variables, they could intervene in the context to make it more favorable.
This review focuses on terrorism and extremist crimes, including ideologically motivated hate crimes. Research on these topics has become more rigorous in recent decades, and more scholars have engaged in original data collection. Our assessment found a burgeoning literature that increasingly includes the application of integrated theories, but gaps remain as few studies examine life-course and critical approaches. Our review of the policing of terrorism found a limited evidence base for counterterrorism initiatives. We also found that court/sentencing issues are understudied. We suggest improving data quality in these areas by creating a national data collection protocol on these crimes, enhancing the rigor of offender and victim self-report studies, and requiring more transparency from open-source research efforts. We propose that government agencies fund rigorous evaluations of policing strategies in the terrorism context. Finally, it is hoped that increased access to federal court documents will lead to more scholarly attention on sentencing issues.
Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Criminology, Volume 7 is January 2024. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
Researchers interested in expanding our understanding about individuals, who are silenced by majority societies or those who willingly position themselves close to condemned standpoints, need to also think about ways of approaching and encouraging potential research participants. The current paper frames that need as an act of curiosity and an ethical responsibility. With that framing in hand, the paper explains the process of overcoming difficulties related to recruiting radicalized subpopulations of youngsters (154 self-identified Muslim youth with migration backgrounds and 153 native youth who support movements labeled as far right) in a transnational qualitative research conducted in four different countries (Germany, France, Belgium, and the Netherlands) in 2020–2022. Because both groups are subject to the labels imposed on them by the majority societies (e.g., Muslim, Salafi, conservative, fascist, right wing, etc.), the researchers felt the need to be flexible in the ways they address and approach each participant. In the field, the purposeful efforts of recruitment wording for each individual appeared very useful in encouraging this by nature skeptical group of people. The current paper documents the development of this flexible strategy, which I hope will be useful to many qualitative researchers to facilitate their data collection efforts to identify and reach youth that is on the path of radicalization. We would like to encourage academics to stay curious about these two subpopulations of youth and other marginalized, singled out, and stigmatized groups, and consider interviewing as many individuals as possible in order to discover the radicals.
The study of terrorism represents one of the major turning points in criminology of the twenty-first century. In the space of just two decades, research on terrorism and political extremism went from a relatively uncommon niche to a widely recognized criminological specialization. Terrorism research now appears in nearly all mainstream criminology journals; college courses on terrorism and political violence have been added to the curricula of most criminology departments; and a growing number of criminology students are choosing terrorism as a suitable topic for class papers, research topics, theses and dissertations. The purpose of this book is to explore similarities and differences between terrorism and more ordinary forms of crime. This Element considers the ways that criminology has contributed to the study of terrorism and the impact the increasing interest in terrorism has had on criminology. This Element also provides empirical comparisons of terrorist attacks to more ordinary crimes and criminal offenders. This title is also available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.
United Nations Counter Terrorism
Terrorism presents one the biggest criminal justice postmodern challenges worldwide. The way criminal justice systems proact and react to mitigate and prevent such criminality raises a plethora of legal, socio-political, and strategic hurdles relating to how terror crime is defined, the human rights of the accused, protecting due process when using secret courts, the use of special advocates, the use of national security courts, civil rights i.e., freedom of association, cross-jurisdictional information sharing, and the requirement or right to prosecute etc. In this article, which is influenced by criminological theory, the definition of terror crime in the United Kingdom and at an International level is examined to ascertain whether common definitional elements exist, and the complex and competing local and International interests that are being balanced in preventing and/or prosecuting such crime.
Rhetorical contests about how to frame a war run alongside many armed conflicts. With the rise of internet access, social media, and cyber operations, these propaganda battles have a wider audience than ever before. Yet, such framing contests have attracted little attention in scholarly literature. What are the effects of gendered and strategic framing in civil war? How do different types of individuals - victims, combatants, women, commanders - utilize the frames created around them and about them? Who benefits from these contests, and who loses? Following the lives of eleven ex-combatants from non-state armed groups and supplemented by over one hundred interviews conducted across Colombia, Framing a Revolution opens a window into this crucial part of civil war. Their testimonies demonstrate the importance of these contests for combatants' commitments to their armed groups during fighting and the Colombian peace process, while also drawing implications for the concept of civil war worldwide.
Alors que l’engagement dans les organisations terroristes et les mouvements sociaux a suscité une littérature pléthorique, peu de travaux existent sur la sortie de ces deux types de collectifs. Pour saisir la pluralité des facteurs intervenant dans ces processus, nous nous sommes appuyés sur une enquête de sociologie empirique menée auprès de 64 militant.e.s du Partiya Karkerên Kurdistan (PKK). En effet, ce parti a connu une importante vague de départs de la guérilla au début des années 2000. L’étude microsociologique des trajectoires de désengagement conduit à nuancer le rôle de l’idéologie mis en avant par l’analyse méso-sociologique comme facteur explicatif des sorties de la violence. Elle est en outre utile pour mettre en évidence l’effet de la synergie entre facteurs méso (tels que les dysfonctionnements organisationnels) et facteurs micro (raisons personnelles, dissonances cognitives induites par l’identification de contradiction avec les valeurs qui motivent l’enrôlement et la réalité de la vie au sein de la guérilla) pour justifier la sortie de la clandestinité.
This book offers a comprehensive analysis of the multifaceted dimensions of violent extremist groups in South Asia, attending especially to the relationships between the local and regional forces influencing their emergence and activities. In addition, research in the book shows how political, security-sensitive events and processes are framed, and the factors responsible for such framing. Similarly, it discusses prevalent discourses on anti-violent extremism policy and the on-the-ground militarized preventive/reactive interventions they guide, which are inspired by ideologies that increasingly reflect controversial understandings of the experiences of people within conditions of state fragility. In doing so, the book balances attention to local conditions that frame the rise and fall, or persistency, of incidences of violent extremism. The systems-based ecological framing of issues in the book is influenced by a concern for the broader questions of securitization, global governance, poverty, (under)development, and armed conflicts in South Asia.
That said, this book is distinctive in as much as it constitutes the first-ever attempt to analyze South Asian countries through the lens of the state fragility framework and to examine how issues of state fragility contribute to violent extremism. Through case studies drawn from Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, this collection suggests that fragile states have not only created conditions for extremist groups but that some states at times also adopt violent populist policies to marginalize minorities, pushing those minorities to resort to
violent means.
The notion of lifecycle was first used in the social sciences in the 1930s and remained prominent until the end of the 1960s in political behavior studies, despite its lack of empirical consistency. The basic idea is that stage‐specific needs result in the adoption of particular political attitudes. Based largely on Freudian psychodynamic theory, the lifecycle approach has mainly been interested in explaining adolescent rebellion (and, more rarely, the conservatism of the elderly) and attempted to attribute social protest in the 1960s to young people's lifecycle characteristics and needs, and to deep‐seated emotional conflicts between youth and adults. In a more structuro‐functionalist perspective, lifecycle theory has given birth to a cohort‐generational perspective, in which youth unrest is viewed as a product of a rapidly changing social order and unique growing‐up experiences that exacerbate age‐group relations, and may generate organized protest behaviors. However, contemporary research has found no clear diminution with age in the number of left‐oriented attitudes nor any rush to conservatism more generally, as lifecycle theories would suggest. Here, the main result is that social unrest is not causally linked to chronological age and that people do not seem to become more conservative with age.
This article explores the intersubjective dynamics that foster desistance from crime. It explains that the concepts of ‘identification’ and ‘recognition’—as defined by Jessica Benjamin—illuminate how psychic change can come about despite social continuity within offenders’ lives. The value of Benjamin’s approach is illustrated through the analysis of the case of a former far-right activist. The article shows that in order to desist from crimes that involve a symbolic ‘othering’ (e.g. hate crimes) offenders have to reclaim the psychic parts of themselves that are projected onto victims. The article concludes that when those deemed ‘other’ are able to withstand and survive hostile projections the possibilities for psychic change among desisting offenders are enhanced.
A nationalist hard-line party, Batasuna of Sozialista Abertzaleak, Basque region, which consists of northern Spain and parts of southwestern France, has asserted Basque independence for the previous 40 years. This party has been fighting for the autonomy of three of northern Spain's Basque provinces, but it has been declining in power since being formally banned by the conservative People's Party government in 2003. The organization that is commonly assumed to be its military wing, Euskadi Ta Askatasuna (ETA), has been responsible for the deaths of over 800 people since 1968. The numerous arrests of over 400 ETA members seem to have greatly shaken the internal structure of Batasuna. It is uncertain whether Batasuna's proposed political methods will bring peace to this troubled region and whether the Spanish government, which has long been debating the issue of Basque self-determination, will ever believe Batasuna's claim. The People's Party, which was in power until March 2004, refused negotiations with ETA due to its unwillingness to renounce the use of violence. The lack of clarity in Batasuna's overtures and the internal squabbles have weakened its credibility, thus the only only apparent path toward peace remains with ETA.
Despite savage killings in Algeria and intermittent attacks on government officials and foreigners in Egypt, the Islamist advance has come to a halt in both countries. Revolutionary Islamists no longer represent a real threat to the survival of the secular authoritarian regimes in the Middle East. Brutal as their methods have been, militant Islamists could not match the counter-violence unleashed by these regimes. The regimes' military successes have not, however, led to peace, and their campaigns have yet to crush Islamist insurgency. Authoritarian policies from Cairo and Algiers have marginalised and alienated the militant Islamist opposition, pushing it towards the politics of terror. In the absence of substantive political and economic reforms, low-intensity conflict is likely to continue for the foreseeable future.
The end of Greece's Revolutionary Organization 17 November (17N) finally came on 5 September 2002 when the group's leader of operations, Dimitris Koufodinas, turned himself to the police. Unlike Alexandros Giotopoulos, the group's chief ideologue who denied any involvement in 17N, Koufodinas took responsibility for the entire 17N experience and sought to defend and justify their violent actions. Drawing on Koufodinas's court testimony this article suggests that the world of 17N was a closed, self-referential world where terrorism had become for the members a way of life from which they could not walk away. Defending the group's campaign from beginning to end, Koufodinas contended that 17N was an authentic revolutionary alternative to a barbaric, inhumane and vindictive capitalist order that was running amok. An emblematic personality of 17N terrorism, Dimitris Koufodinas embraced the view that Greece's “self-negating democracy” necessitated exactly the kind of political violence they had undertaken.
The internal organizational problems of terrorist groups are analyzed. The purpose is to investigate how violent action by members of such organizations can be triggered by internal organizational problems rather than by external factors exclusively. Two kinds of problems are studied: command problems and political problems. Command problems include the following: reconciliation of security with efficient communication, the clustering of ethnic groups under stress, the role of women, and the quality of the membership. The political problems include the following: the self‐destructive potential in each terrorist organization (especially in case of its victory), the problem of inflated membership, and the role of terrorist leaders as the givers of moral dispensation.
Governments have many means to begin a dialogue with terrorist groups. The offer of talks may lead terrorists’ constituents to reduce their support for violence, and moderates within a group itself may also turn away from violence. Despite these potential benefits, even the consideration of entering discussions carries many risks. Talks with U.S. officials do indeed reward the use of terrorism, tangibly demonstrating that groups can kill innocents and yet become legitimate interlocutors—a reward that is costly both in terms of reducing the prevalence of this tactic worldwide and because it inevitably angers local allies fighting the groups. Moreover, talks often fail in a variety of ways, giving the terrorists a breathing space to rearm and organize and leaving the government looking foolish. Because talks often fail, policymakers should carefully explore whether the conditions are right for any hope of success before they begin a dialogue.
Using informers is a basic tool in preventing terror attacks and the nature of current terror threats makes it even more crucial. This use, however, often leads to human rights violations, both of the informers and by them, and to many problematic ethical questions. Drawing on the Israeli–Palestinian example—where a main strategy of Israeli intelligence activity in the Palestinian areas has been an extensive use of informers—this article presents the main human rights dilemmas in the field, divided into three stages: recruitment, operation and post-operation obligations, and also points to the possible counter-productive consequences of such a use.
This article treats terrorist organizations as political interest groups. Starting from the assumption that terrorists are rational political actors, it follows that organizational considerations will play a role in the formation and decline of terrorist groups, just as is the case in other political organizations. The effects of several factors, including recruitment, ability to provide selective and purposive incentives, the need for entrepreneurial political leadership, competition from other organizations, the ability to attract outside support, and the ability to form coalitions with other groups, are considered.
This article focuses on the reasons why the attempt to achieve the end of ETA's violence in the Basque Country during the mid- to late-1990s was unsuccessful when compared to the IRA's case in Northern Ireland. It argues that the different roles played by Basque and Irish nationalism in that decade and the distortion of the Irish model by Basque nationalist parties and the terrorist organization ETA were decisive in this outcome. The radicalisation of constitutional nationalism in the Basque region, as opposed to the constitutionalisation of radical nationalism that was a key factor in the achievement of the consensus enshrined in the 1998 Belfast Agreement, contributed to the continuation of terrorism. Contrary to the spirit of this Agreement, Basque nationalists moved away from an existing consensus with non nationalist parties around the principle of full development of the Basque autonomy strengthening ETA's will to carry on with their campaign.
In this paper I explore and exemplify the processes through which youngsters become committed insiders of countercultural youth groups and how under-aged (child) soldiers go through a similar process of transformation to become members of what I will call a ‘community of military terror’. Finally, I discuss the extent to which the experience of more extreme counter-cultural groups and communities can be accommodated into the ‘community of practice’ concept (Lave, 1988; Wenger, 1998), and, when not possible, the modifications needed to achieve accommodation.
The Red Army Faction (RAF) has changed the structure of its organisation several times. This happened usually after setbacks in its operations which were regarded by sympathisers and supporters as defeats. Regroupings in the hierarchy were made in the hope to get new energies for the armed struggle. In the last year difficulties in communications developed, particularly between the command level and the prisoners. The attempt to establish a ‘West European Guerrilla’ failed.At the beginning of the 1980s the RAF worked out its ‘MIC‐streategy’ which was aimed at the so‐called ‘Military‐Industrial‐Complex’. Meanwhile this conception is replaced by another target. The enemy of the terrorists now is the ‘European Superpower’. By creating this new hostile figure the RAF is renewing its attempt to form a ‘European Front of the Guerrilla’. But the call for new allies remained without resonance until today.
This article is based on the premise that terrorist organizations are a special class of political interest groups. What separates terrorist organizations from most interest groups is that terrorists use violence instead of lobbying to try to achieve their goals. Terrorist organizations will face the same kinds of organizational problems as other interest groups, i.e., recruitment of members, competing groups, political cohesion, leadership contests, etc. This paper focuses on how these organizational processes inside the terrorist organizations affect the outcome of bargaining between authorities and terrorist organizations. The effects of the internal organizational situation of the terrorist group will be manifest most clearly in the likelihood of achieving a peaceful resolution of a terrorist event and in the amount of the risk premium required to achieve the peaceful resolution.
The Ulster Defence Association is the largest of the paramilitary organisations in Northern Ireland, yet it has received scant attention in the literature on terrorism. As a paramilitary organisation, it appeared to be in terminal decline in the late 1980s, but it has since then re‐established itself as a significant security threat in Northern Ireland. This article describes in the form of a case study some of the factors that have led to the resurgence of the organisation since 1989. In particular, it describes how a series of events, culminating with the Stevens Inquiry of 1989–90, effectively re‐established the organisation and renewed its deadly capacity for terrorism.1
The Manhattan trial of four men linked to Osama bin Laden was the result of the largest overseas investigation ever mounted by the U.S. government. The trial generated thousands of pages of documents and the testimony of dozens of witnesses with some knowledge of bin Laden's group. What was learned from the trial is that bin Laden's organization experienced severe cash flow problems in the mid-1990s; that the U.S. government has had some real successes in finding informants within bin Laden's organization; that bin Laden has taken steps to acquire weapons of mass destruction; that the training of bin Laden's followers in his camps in Afghanistan is quite rigorous, featuring tuition on a wide range of weapons and explosives and terrorism techniques; and that bin Laden's group operates transnationally, its membership drawn from four continents. Finally, the trial underlines the strengths and limits of the law enforcement approach to bin Laden.
The article looks at Red Brigades (BR) recruitment in the early 1970s via the infiltration and ‘lubrication’ of far left groups based in the factories of Northern Italy. The author describes the passage from extremism to terrorism and the criteria imposed by the BR for entry. Initial imitation of the Latin American guerrilla model was gradually replaced by a series of organizational and disciplinary structures based on first‐hand experience. The strict regulations laid down by the BR were generally adhered to and were a vital factor for survival, although the weakest link was in personal relations. The restrictions of clandestinity created personal and political crises which deepened after 1978, when the battle between state and terrorists intensified. The greater commitment required of members made dissent and exit correspondingly more traumatic. In the end, attempts to preserve unity by increasing discipline proved to be counterproductive.
This commentary examines the issue of global jihadist recidivism and identifies it as a potential long-term international counterterrorism concern. Although there are no comprehensive and accurate statistics on global jihadist recidivism, there is sufficient anecdotal evidence that suggests that the tendency for released imprisoned global jihadist terrorists is to return to terrorist activity. It is important to understand that arresting, indicting, and sentencing a captured global jihadist terrorist is not the end of the counterterrorism skirmish. In fact, the next stages of incarceration and reformation are more crucial to the endgame. The problem of global jihadist recidivism is at the core a manpower issue. Prisons have always been an important front for all types of terrorist groups. Recidivism or the failure of prison rehabilitation programs is simply one component of this front. Terrorist groups do not want their imprisoned members to reform and resign from the organization. Further research needs to be conducted on the recidivism rate for terrorists and whether religious terrorists would have a higher rate than secular ones. The academic, think tank, and U.S. government communities need to examine this issue to determine if it is a long-term international counterterrorism problem. The author believes it will be.
Based on 48 fairly detailed personal case histories, and more limited data on 447 other individuals, this article describes significant patterns in the lives of members of the Basque insurgent organization Euzkadi ta Askatasuna (ETA). The article discusses the age and sex of ETA members, the socioeconomic background of the members and their families, and their ethnic and linguistic characteristics. The article also describes life in ETA, the radicalization of Basque youth, how new members are recruited into the organization, how they live and what they do as members, how ETA members relate to family, friends and loved ones, and how they terminate their relationship to the organization. The study finds ETA members to be not the alienated and pathologically distressed individuals who join other insurgent organizations, but rather they are psychologically healthy persons for the most part, strongly supported by their families and their ethnic community.
Criminological theorists and criminal justice policy makers place a great deal of importance on the idea of desistance. In general terms, criminal desistance refers to a cessation of offending activity among those who have offended in the past. Some significant challenges await those who would estimate the relative size of the desisting population or attempt to identify factors that predict membership in that population. In this paper, we consider several different analytic frameworks that represent an array of plausible definitions. We then illustrate some of our ideas with an empirical example from the 1958 Philadelphia Birth Cohort Study.
Theoretical debates and empirical tests on the explanation of stability and change in offending over time have been ongoing for over a decade pitting Gottfredson and Hirschi's (1990) criminal propensity model against Sampson and Laub's (1993) life-course model of informal social control. In 2001, Wright and his colleagues found evidence of a moderating relationship between criminal propensity, operationalized as self-control, and prosocial ties on crime, a relationship they term life-course interdependence. The current study extends their research by focusing on this moderating relationship and the developmental process of desistance from crime among serious juvenile delinquents. Contrary to the life-course interdependence hypothesis, the results indicate that whereas self-control and social bonds are strongly related to desistance from crime, there is no evidence of a moderating relationship between these two factors on desistance among this sample. The implications of this research for life-course theories of crime, future research, and policies regarding desistance are discussed.
Most searchers performing unit root tests on terrorism series reject the null hypothesis of unit roots (I(1)) and conclude that terrorism is stationary (I(0)). In this paper we analyze ETA activity in Spain during the last 30 years by means of examining its degree of dependence across time, using fractional integration or I(d) techniques. The results show that the activity of ETA is persistent to some extent, with an order of integration of about 0.40, implying stationarity, but also long memory behavior. We argue that this strong degree of dependence between the observations might be explained by the historical background underlying the political conflict in the area. In addition, the results indicate that the most significant factors contributing to a reduction of violence are those related to political pacts among the political parties in the Basque region. In order to put an end to ETA's violence, these accords should involve both nationalist and non-nationalist groups.
Research on crime-related developmental trajectories is reviewed with outcomes revealing the existence of several trajectories rather than a single general pattern. Each trajectory is marked by transitions that define the pattern's path and direction over time. These anticipated transitions differ from the unanticipated transitions known to precipitate crime deceleration and desistance. Borrowing principles from nonlinear dynamical systems theory--sensitive dependence on initial conditions, chaotic attractors, and self-organization in particular--this article offers a model of crime deceleration and desistance in which belief systems congruent with crime are altered in phases--initiation, transition, maintenance--to create belief systems incongruent with crime. The practical implications of this model are discussed and suggestions for future research are outlined.