Article

Causal modeling and the origins of path analysis

Authors:
  • Montana VA Health Care System
To read the full-text of this research, you can request a copy directly from the authors.

Abstract

Biometrician Sewall Wright introduced to genetics a procedure that would revolutionize data analysis. With the advent of Wright's method of path coefficients in early twentieth century, the statistical landscape widened significantly. However, the adoption of Wright's methods provoked great controversy. Essential to this controversy were claims, originally advanced by Wright, that the method could be applied to problems in which causality among variables could be assumed. In the present piece, we seek to provide an historical understanding of how path analysis became associated with causation. We begin by interpreting Wright's early work on path coefficients, then trace key studies that utilized path analysis following Wright's innovative contribution. By mid-century, path analysis had established itself as a causal modeling methodology and was gaining popularity in the social sciences. We conclude that today's procedure be somewhat divorced from issues of causation, both semantically and hermeneutically.

No full-text available

Request Full-text Paper PDF

To read the full-text of this research,
you can request a copy directly from the authors.

... Next, to test the proposed mediation and moderation models, path analyses incorporating the identified covariates were completed. Path models have evidenced a long-standing and current contribution to statistical analysis (Denis & Legerski, 2006;Wolfle, 2003;Wright, 1934;1960). For each proposed model, Specific to the path models examining moderation, direct effects of the predictor (i.e., CASA exposure severity) and the proposed moderator as well as the interaction term, created by computing the product of the centered predictor and centered moderator variables, were examined (Baron & Kenny, 1986;Hoyle & Robinson, 2004). ...
... using the Eigenvalue greater than one rule (Tabachnick & Fidell, 2001). Thus, alternative traumas (i.e., general, physical, and emotional trauma) were dropped from all path models given the limitations of regression style path analysis in handling latent variables (Denis & Legerski, 2006) and the current focus on CASA exposure. All covariates were centered (i.e., alternative traumas and socially desirable responding scores) or dummy-coded (i.e., gender and sexual victimization after 18) to reduce unnecessary collinearity. ...
Article
Research has discussed the use of alcohol to self-medicate posttraumatic stress (PTSD) symptoms following child/adolescent sexual abuse (CASA). Less research has examined the self-medication hypothesis in college students. Further, investigation of the self-medication hypothesis generally precludes the integration of additional psychological vulnerabilities that may impact students’ alcohol consumption. Supported by the “dynamic” stress-diathesis perspective, emotion regulation (ER) difficulties and insufficient dissociative tendencies existing prior to and potentially altered after CASA exposure may relate to problematic alcohol use. The current study aimed to provide an initial, cross-sectional examination of 1) the relations between CASA exposure severity and alcohol use, 2) the self-medicating role of alcohol use for PTSD symptoms, and 3) the integration of the diathesis-stress perspective such that ER difficulties and dissociative tendencies may mediate or moderate the relations among CASA exposure, PTSD symptoms, and alcohol use. Participants included 213 college students mandated to a brief alcohol intervention. After completion of a baseline assessment, results primarily indicated that the relationship between CASA severity and alcohol consumption is indirect. While CASA severity related to increased PTSD symptoms, PTSD symptoms related to greater ER difficulties and dissociative tendencies, in separate models. After controlling for the significant effect of social desirability, ER difficulties and dissociative tendencies positively related to greater alcohol consumption. Most notably, ER difficulties moderated the relations between CASA and PTSD symptoms as well as CASA and alcohol use albeit in an unexpected direction. As CASA severity increased, PTSD symptoms and alcohol use increased at the greatest rate for individuals reporting low levels of ER difficulties. Results highlight a potential phenomenon where perceived superior regulatory abilities reflect reduced insight into adaptive ER including alcohol consumption as an adaptive regulatory strategy in an alcohol-laden college environment. Future research should work to replicate the current findings in a larger student sample, particularly using longitudinal research methods to allow for temporal interpretability and a more sound examination of results between genders. Adviser: Dennis E. McChargue
... Originating in the much older path analysis first mentioned by the geneticist Sewall Wright in 1918 (Denis and Legerski, 2006), the analysis of system diagrams (also known as causal loop diagrams), gained in complexity during the 1970s, as a result of the addition of causal loops by Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows and Jorgen Randers, in order to explain the computer simulation of the World3 model (the developed version of World2, designed by Forrester in 1971); commissioned by the Club of Rome, it aimed at the interaction between population, industrial growth, food production, pollution and the limits of the ecosystem (Turner, 2008). ...
Article
Full-text available
Systems diagrams allow one to model the way in which complex systems work. They support thinking through the way in which the factors within a system interact and feedback upon themselves. Leadership, followers’ engagement and performance are depicted via Systems diagram approach. Current survey examines leadership behaviour toward followers, i.e. transformational and transactional styles. Full Range Leadership Model is employed to explore leader behavior with respect to Contingency reward. Objective of the paper is to examine Contingency reward within a framework of two surveys. The first one is conducted in 2017 in leading manufacturers in the light industry located in Northeastern Bulgaria. The second study was conducted in 2015 in public administrations located in the North central and Northeastern region in Bulgaria. Respondents in both are first line managers. Average values and validity analysis are performed. As a result, Contingency reward is consistent with transformational leadership.
... A key advantage of this technique is that it introduces a measurement model that separates latent factors from measurement error, while also enabling a test of the assumption that the modeled variables are de facto factorially distinct. Because structural equation modeling is sometimes conflated with causal analysis [78], it important to keep in mind that causal assumptions are, like any other metaphysical or epistemological assumptions, not intrinsic to any particular statistical technique. With this work we were in no way attempting to test any causal assumptions about, for instance, the developmental sequence of political attitude acquisition in childhood and adolescence. ...
Preprint
Full-text available
According to Silvan Tomkins’ polarity theory, ideological thought is universally structured by a clash between two opposing worldviews. On the left, a humanistic worldview seeks to uphold the intrinsic value of the person; on the right, a normative worldview holds that human worth is contingent upon conformity to rules. In this article, we situate humanism and normativism within the context of contemporary models of political ideology as a function of motivated social cognition, personality traits, and moral intuitions. In four studies conducted in the U.S. and Sweden, the association between normativism and rightist orientation was statistically mediated by resistance to change, acceptance of inequality, social dominance orientation, and right-wing authoritarianism, and the associations between normativism and these four constructs were further mediated by system justification, dangerous- and competitive-world beliefs, conservative moral intuitions, low openness, and low honesty-humility. The association between humanism and leftist orientation was statistically mediated by preference for equality and low social dominance, and the association between humanism and these two constructs were mediated by cooperative-world beliefs, liberal moral intuitions, honesty-humility, and emotionality. We conclude that polarity theory possesses tremendous potential for integrating seemingly disparate models of political ideology to explain how and why socio-political attitudes under a variety of historical and cultural contexts come to be structured along a single, left-right ideological dimension.
... Making causal inferences based on non experimental statistical data has been a controversial topic [Freedman, 1987, Rogosa, 1987, Denis, 2006. While randomized controlled trials are the standard approach to take care of intervening third variables, causal modeling is an alternative method of making causal inferences [Pearl, 2009, Sprites et al., 2001] based on observational data making certain causal assumptions. ...
... A thorough description of path analysis is beyond the scope of this paper. We assume that the reader has basic knowledge of path analysis; the reader can acquire all the required information about path analysis from other sources (e.g.,Alwin and Hauser, 1975;Kang and Seneta, 1980;Cramer et al., 1999;Bizeti et al., 2004;Garson, 2005;Streiner, 2005;Denis and Legerski, 2006). ...
Article
Full-text available
Path analysis has applications in various fields of science, including social science, economics, agriculture, and biology. While programs for path analysis written in other computer languages are available, no program for Minitab exists even though Minitab plays an important role in numerous branches of science for statistical analyses. The aim of this paper is to present a powerful Minitab program, MULTPATH, for path analysis. This program responds well to Minitab versions V10.5 and higher. To demonstrate its operation, an artificial data set is used. The macro yields results similar to those obtained using other statistical software, such as SAS. The macro should be useful to researchers from most fields of study, including biologists and agriculturists. A program copy is available free of charge from the corresponding author.
... The method that provides a computational link between path diagrams and correlations is called the method of path coefficients, described at length in [13]. In the 1960s and 1970s, the method has been adapted by numerous sociologists and economists, and gradually evolved into SEM; see [1] for an engaging review of the history of path analysis and SEM, together with a debate on the views on causal interpretation of the results. In this section, we show how the link between graphs and matrices from Section 3 enables us to easily derive a relationship that is analogous to the method of path coefficients, only that we consider covariances instead of correlations. ...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
In a directed graph with weighted edges, there is a relationship between paths in the graph and the inversion of a certain matrix that contains information about the edge weights. To an OR/econometrics student, this relationship is sometimes mentioned in connection with structural analysis. However, as we show in the paper, this relationship can be used to easily derive some results in other fields connected with OR and econometrics – namely, in the study of Markov chains and structural equation modelling (SEM). Traditionally, these results are arrived at using the means of matrix algebra. As the use of graphical models of real-world problems seems to be very instructive and easy to grasp for students, we advocate laying an emphasis on the graphical approach in teaching the aforementioned problems.
... Although statisticians some- times refer to this as "causal analysis," it is important to remember that covariance (i.e., similarities in historical paths) merely suggests poten- tial relationships. Arguments concerning causation are not implied by the similarities of the trajectories, but by the quality of the research design (Denis and Legerski 2006 ). In historical ecology , this means that it is not suffi cient to merely establish similar historical paths, but also an understanding of the processes and agents of change. ...
Article
Full-text available
Historical ecology uses interdisciplinary synthesis to trace and evaluate the complex relationships between humans and the environment over the long term, typically traversing the course of centuries (Crumley 1994, 2007: 16). Its methodological backbone is the synthesis of long-series data produced by practitioners in diverse fields. Work in historical ecology is guided by theoretical postulates that recognize that understanding humans’ occupation of nearly every environmental niche and the diversity of human social structures requires broadly integrative methodologies (Balee 1998). Researchers bring about a difficult union between history and science, pay close attention to the relations of geographic and temporal scales, embrace human social complexity, and present findings in ways that are broadly accessible (Crumley 1994, 1996a, 1996b, 2007). The methods of historical ecology have been shaped by a rejection of environmental determinism, an interdisciplinary historical synthesis, and interest in questions concerning the historical trajectories of the changes in humans’ relations with the environment. Because historical ecology melds data from science and the humanities, the following review of its methods draws from advances in geography, biology, ecology, history, sociology, and anthropology. That discussion is followed by examples of questions addressed by practitioners of historical ecology, an illustrative case study, and an evaluation of the future of the approach.
... However, the approach is not a statistical philosopher's stone that can change correlational dross into causal gold. At a minimum, path analysis requires specification of a theoretical model in advance of the analysis (Crano & Mendoza, 1987); some have reversed this process, and in so doing have violated Wright's intentions (Denis & Legerski, 2006) and have thereby forfeited the causal logic of the enterprise. ...
Article
Full-text available
Science must begin with myths, and with the criticism of myths; neither with the collection of observations, nor with the invention of experiments, but with the critical discussion of myths, and of magical techniques and practices. (Karl Popper, 1963/1984, p. 50) Depending on one's view of the proper domain of social psychology, a study of its historic methodological roots could range from the somewhat constricted to the extremely broad. To set the boundaries of this review, we adopt a broad conception of social psychology as the systematic study of the interplay of cognition, society, and behavior, and then proceed from the proposition that contemporary social psychology is an empirical science. Given these understandings, discussion of the history of research methodology in the fi eld must begin with a consideration of the scientifi c method in general, whose exact beginnings are lost in the sands of time and cannot be established with certainty. More recent approaches and assumptions that undoubtedly grew from these lost beginnings are available, however, and will be considered here.
... Rather, it was intended to assess theory-based, hypothesized associations between measures of social integration and SRH and measures of social isolation and SRH. It was also intended to explore the associations between the demographic variables and social integration, social isolation, and SRH (Behrens and Yu 2003;Denis and Legerski 2006;Tukey 1980). Thus, the study design consisted of both exploratory and confirmatory data analyses. ...
Article
Objectives. Research indicates social integration and social isolation are related to health, and Latino day laborers (LDLs) tend to be socially isolated and, thus, at high risk for adverse health consequences. relationships among social isolation, social integration, self-rated health (SRH), and demographics were examined in a sample of LDLs to contribute to the literature on social networks and health in this and other migrant populations. Design. We analyzed data from 324 LDLs who participated in Proyecto SHILOS (Salud del Hombre Inmigrante Latino), a Houston-based survey of Latino immigrant men’s health. Based on the literature, we hypothesized SRH would be (1) positively associated with social integration and (2) negatively associated with social isolation. All proposed measures were first entered into a correlation matrix to identify significant bivariate relationships (p ≤ .05, two-tailed). Associations between variables that were directly correlated with SRH and variables that were, in turn, proximally associated with these variables were then used to develop a structural equation path model of SRH. Individual paths in the model were measured for significance, and goodness of fit was assessed by the model chi-square, the Comparative Fit Index, and the Root Mean Square Error of Approximation. Results. Inconsistent with the first hypothesis, SRH was negatively associated with social integration, as measured by the number of trusted friends. Consistent with the second hypothesis, SRH was negatively associated with social isolation, as measured by needing someone to talk to. More frequent contact with family was also negatively associated with social isolation. Discussion. Our findings suggest social integration may not always protect and promote health. Therefore, assessing the quality of LDLs’ different relationships, not just the quantity, is vital. Future studies should further analyze the effects that social resources have on perceptions of social isolation and health in LDLs and other migrant populations.
... The earliest methods for it were based on combinations of regression models for M and Y . When these are linear models for continuous variables, methods of path analysis go back to Wright (1921), other important early contributors include Tukey (1954) and Blalock (1964), and an influential more recent article is Baron and Kenny (1986); see Wolfle (2003) and Denis and Legerski (2006) for historical reviews, and Bollen (1989) for an overview of this kind of path analysis. In this simple setting, direct and indirect associations (or 'effects') can often be expressed and estimated very simply in terms of the coefficients of the models. ...
Article
We analyse levels and trends of intergenerational social class mobility among three post-war birth cohorts in Britain, and examine how much of the observed mobility or immobility in them could be accounted for by existing differences in educational attainment between people from different class backgrounds. We propose for this purpose a method which quantifies associations between categorical variables when we compare groups which differ only in the distribution of a mediating variable such as education. This is analogous to estimation of indirect effects in causal mediation analysis, but is here developed to define and estimate population associations of variables. We propose estimators for these associations, which depend only on fitted values from models for the mediator and outcome variables, and variance estimators for them. The analysis shows that the part that differences in education play in intergenerational class mobility is by no means so dominant as has been supposed, and that while it varies with gender and with particular mobility transitions, it shows no tendency to change over time.
... Importantly, results of a path analysis should not be interpreted as evidence of causality-this is determined by research design and data quality, not statistical techniques. Unfortunately, in communication scholarship, like in the social sciences in general (Denis & Legerski, 2006), many confuse path analysis with causal modeling. Strictly speaking, studies of dynamic processes based on cross-sectional data that use path analysis may identify direct, indirect, and total "associations," not "effects." ...
Chapter
Full-text available
Path analysis is a statistical technique for examining and testing relationships among a set of observed variables. Path analysis allows the study of multiple direct and indirect relationships between variables simultaneously. It is now regarded as one type of the more general statistical technique known as structural equation modeling. To facilitate interpretation, the estimated relationships in a path analysis are usually presented in the form of a path diagram, with boxes representing variables and arrows representing paths of relationships. With path analysis, researchers can determine if a proposed model is consistent with the data throughout.
... Untuk menganalisis data hasil penelitian lapangan dan untuk menguji hipotesis digunakan analisis Analisis Jalur (Path Analysis). Model analisis jalur pertama kali dikembangkan oleh Sewal Wright pada tahun 1918-1921(Denis & Legerski, 2006. Analisis jalur digunakan untuk mengkaji hubungan antara model kausal yang telah dirumuskan peneliti atas dasar teori dan pengetahuan yang relevan (Lleras, 2005). ...
Article
Full-text available
The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of government spending - for building infrastructures, education and health - on economic growth and Indonesian community welfare that reside along the borderline during the period of 2007 to 2014. The data used in this research is panel data. Applying estimation model of Ordinary Least Square (OLS), this research indicates that government expenditures for infrastructures and education created significant effect oneconomic growth while the expenditure for healthcare did not significantly affect the economic growth. However, in the case of people welfare, government spending on infrastructure and economic growth showed a significant effect on it, butthe government spending for education and healthcare had insignificant impact on human development index.
... We agree with Dunbar & Shultz [43] that, in principle, comparative analysis should differentiate between selection pressures and constraints, but it remains unclear how this can be achieved in practice. While path analysis has been suggested as a possible solution [31,43], it is essentially a protocol for arranging a set of regression coefficients according to some causal hypotheses; it cannot be used to discover causality from correlational data [76], it cannot solve the problem of instability across datasets, and it is as vulnerable to underlying issues with the data as are the regression analyses on which it is based. In summary, while it remains plausible that sociality is related to cognitive evolution in primates, we suggest that this can no longer be claimed on the basis of a strong or robust correlation between brain size and group size that remains after controlling for other variables. ...
Article
Comparative studies have identified a wide range of behavioural and ecological correlates of relative brain size, with results differing between taxonomic groups, and even within them. In primates for example, recent studies contradict one another over whether social or ecological factors are critical. A basic assumption of such studies is that with sufficiently large samples and appropriate analysis, robust correlations indicative of selection pressures on cognition will emerge. We carried out a comprehensive re-examination of correlates of primate brain size using two large comparative datasets and phylogenetic comparative methods. We found evidence in both datasets for associations between brain size and ecological variables (home range size, diet and activity period), but little evidence for an effect of social group size, a correlation which has previously formed the empirical basis of the Social Brain Hypothesis. However, reflecting divergent results in the literature, our results exhibited instability across datasets, even when they were matched for species composition and predictor variables. We identify several potential empirical and theoretical difficulties underlying this instability and suggest that these issues raise doubts about inferring cognitive selection pressures from behavioural correlates of brain size. © 2017 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.
... Wright 1921;Niles 1922 Niles , 1923 Wright 1923.6 Denis and Legersky 2006. 7 Holland 1986;Glymour 1986. ...
Preprint
Full-text available
A review of Dale Copeland's _Economic Interdependence and War_ (2015), focusing on the use of case studies
... Everything graphical in SEM starts with path analysis. Richard Sewall Wright (1921), a hundred years ago, described a system of finding correlation between two variables, X and Y using a system of paths (Denis 2021). In this approach, he described that if a system of paths exist between two variables X and Y, the multiplication produce of the path coefficents of the sequences of the paths that traverse between the two variables should be added to the path coefficients of the direct paths that exist between X and Y to derive their correlations (Figure 1). ...
... Another potential limitation of the SEM analysis was that while the results are consistent with the 'causal' processes posited in the hypotheses underpinning the final structural model, we cannot assume these to be proof that the associations are in fact causal (Denis and Legerski, 2006). The attribution of causality in epidemiological research requires a range of evidence criteria to be met (Bradley-Hill, 1965). ...
Technical Report
Full-text available
CITATIONS 0 READS 142 4 authors, including: Some of the authors of this publication are also working on these related projects: Outcomes and opportunities for prevention following hospitalised suicidal behaviour in the NT The user has requested enhancement of the downloaded file.
... We allowed residual correlations of items loading on the same latent variable. We analyzed the second and third research hypotheses with structural equation modelling (SEM) and reported the relation between sources and academic self-efficacy with standardized β coefficients (Bollen and Long 1993;Denis and Legerski 2006). CFA and SEM were carried out with Mplus (Muthén andMuthén 1998-2012) that allows random missing values to be treated with the FIML (Full Information Maximum Likelihood Estimator). ...
Article
Full-text available
The present study examined the four sources of self-efficacy (mastery experience, vicarious experience, verbal and social persuasion, and physiological state) and how these predict academic self-efficacy over time in N = 1597 (t1) and N = 1373 (t2) 7th-grade students. We simultaneously differentiated three different educationally relevant socialization contexts: the family, peers, and school. Although existing measures to assess sources of academic self-efficacy have considered different socialization contexts, they have done this neither systematically nor for all sources. Confirmatory factor analysis of the four sources in three socialization contexts showed a good fit to the data. Results of structural equation models at t1 showed differential patterns of substantial impact on academic self-efficacy in each socialization context. Over time, the impact decreased when controlling for SES. Results deliver only partial support for Bandura’s theoretical approach and indicate the need to revise social-cognitive theory.
... A key advantage of this technique is that it introduces a measurement model that separates latent factors from measurement error, while also enabling a test of the assumption that the modeled variables are de facto factorially distinct. Because structural equation modeling is sometimes conflated with causal analysis [78], it important to keep in mind that causal assumptions are, like any other metaphysical or epistemological assumptions, not intrinsic to any particular statistical technique. With this work we were in no way attempting to test any causal assumptions about, for instance, the developmental sequence of political attitude acquisition in childhood and adolescence. ...
Article
Full-text available
According to Silvan Tomkins’ polarity theory, ideological thought is universally structured by a clash between two opposing worldviews. On the left, a humanistic worldview seeks to uphold the intrinsic value of the person; on the right, a normative worldview holds that human worth is contingent upon conformity to rules. In this article, we situate humanism and normativism within the context of contemporary models of political ideology as a function of motivated social cognition, beliefs about the social world, and personality traits. In four studies conducted in the U.S. and Sweden, normativism was robustly associated with rightist (or conservative) self-placement; conservative issue preferences; resistance to change and acceptance of inequality; right-wing authoritarianism and social dominance orientation; system justification and its underlying epistemic and existential motives to reduce uncertainty and threat; and a lack of openness, emotionality, and honesty-humility. Humanism exhibited the opposite relations to most of these constructs, but it was largely unrelated to epistemic and existential needs. Humanism was strongly associated with preferences for equality, openness to change, and low levels of authoritarianism, social dominance, and general and economic system justification. We conclude that polarity theory possesses considerable potential to explain how conflicts between worldviews shape contemporary politics.
... Anthropologists, epidemiologists, public health specialists, and others may undertake field studies and then apply standard statistical procedures to their data and analyze associations such as weight-for-height to find out about the prevalence of obesity, or they are interested in the correlation between body height and household income, or between skinfold thickness and physical activity, or other variables. The true underlying relationship between these variables usually remains unknown and there is no apparent way to investigate causality within such associations, such as: did household income influence height, or do the taller people enjoy more household income, or did more physical activity lead to a reduction in skinfold thickness, or are less obese persons fitter and therefore, undertake more physical activity [1]. ...
Article
Full-text available
(1) Background: We present a new statistical approach labeled as “St. Nicolas House Analysis” (SNHA) for detecting and visualizing extensive interactions among variables. (2) Method: We rank absolute bivariate correlation coefficients in descending order according to magnitude and create hierarchic “association chains” defined by sequences where reversing start and end point does not alter the ordering of elements. Association chains are used to characterize dependence structures of interacting variables by a graph. (3) Results: SNHA depicts association chains in highly, but also in weakly correlated data, and is robust towards spurious accidental associations. Overlapping association chains can be visualized as network graphs. Between independent variables significantly fewer associations are detected compared to standard correlation or linear model-based approaches. (4) Conclusion: We propose reversible association chains as a principle to detect dependencies among variables. The proposed method can be conceptualized as a non-parametric statistical method. It is especially suited for secondary data analysis as only aggregate information such as correlations matrices are required. The analysis provides an initial approach for clarifying potential associations that may be subject to subsequent hypothesis testing.
... To appropriately take into account the nested structure of students within classes, we used the Mplus syntax TYPE = COMPLEX, weighted least square mean estimation (WLSMV), and the THETA parameterization as recommended for categorical variables (Muthèn & Muthèn, 1998. We report standardized β coefficients to examine the relationship between sources in each socialization context on academic self-efficacy (Denis & Legerski, 2006). We used the Wald test (Wald, 1943) implemented in Mplus to test for statistically significant differences in path coefficients between groups. ...
Article
Full-text available
This study investigated how as reported by Bandura (Self-efficacy: The exercise of control Freeman, 1997) sources of self-efficacy differ across socialization contexts for German students with diverse immigrant backgrounds. We measured all four sources of academic self-efficacy in three socialization contexts for students of former Soviet Union and Turkish descent as well as without an immigrant background, assuming that we would find differences between these groups. Participants were 1217 seventh-grade students in Germany. Multigroup structural equation analyses with latent variables revealed the differential importance of socialization contexts for the relation between academic self-efficacy and its sources across groups. For students of former Soviet Union and Turkish descent, verbal or social persuasion is the strongest contributing factor for academic self-efficacy, whereas for students without an immigrant background, it is mastery experience. In the school context, significant relationships between sources of self-efficacy and academic self-efficacy could only be observed for students without an immigrant background. The results both support and refine Bandura’s social cognitive theory by showing that self-related constructs function differently in students with culturally diverse immigrant backgrounds.
... According to Lareau, innate features with which a person is born such as personality type, cognitive dominance (convergent vs. divergent thinking) (De Bono, 1971; Mintzberg, 1990) and emotional intelligence (Denis and Legerski, 2006), have only a 30% influence on the subsequent evolution of the individual (Lareau, 2011). The cultural advantage encompasses the sociocultural, economic, political and legislative factors. ...
Article
Full-text available
The originality of the paper lies in the treatment of organizational culture as a dynamic system whose current state and evolution is dictated by a web of influences resulting not only from various organizational aspects (e.g., organizational constitution, adoption of IT&C, motivation etc.), but, most importantly, from the specific type of leadership adopted by key decision-making actors. The G.VALI model which is described in the paper is founded on Social Systems science and General Systems Theory. This approach of the interrelations between leadership and organizational culture is fairly different from past attempts which have placed particular emphasis on the static assessment of organizational culture and leadership. The G.VALI model, which was validated based on data collected from five Romanian SMEs, provides researchers with a means to test the empirically proven fact that organizational cultures evolve even in the absence of specific interventions for change, an aspect which until recently has not been recognized by other theoretical models. Keywords: leadership; organizational culture; causal loop modeling; systems dynamics.
... Another potential limitation of the SEM analysis was that while the results are consistent with the 'causal' processes posited in the hypotheses underpinning the final structural model, we cannot assume these to be proof that the associations are in fact causal (Denis and Legerski, 2006). The attribution of causality in epidemiological research requires a range of evidence criteria to be met (Bradley-Hill, 1965). ...
Chapter
Full-text available
This chapter aims to unify the work of previous chapters in developing a deeper understanding of the complex interactions of children’s early life circumstances, pre-school program exposure, developmental readiness for school learning and subsequent academic outcomes. Establishing the relative contribution of these influences in shaping children’s educational progress is vital to the development and effective targeting of policy to enable population-level improvements in children’s educational outcomes.
Article
Full-text available
Tamoxifen was approved for breast cancer risk reduction in high-risk women based on the National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project's Breast Cancer Prevention Trial (P-1:BCPT), which showed 50% fewer breast cancers with tamoxifen versus placebo, supporting tamoxifen's efficacy in preventing breast cancer. Poor metabolizing CYP2D6 variants are currently the subject of intensive scrutiny regarding their impact on clinical outcomes in the adjuvant setting. Our study extends to variants in a wider spectrum of tamoxifen-metabolizing genes and applies to the prevention setting. Our case-only study, nested within P-1:BCPT, explored associations of polymorphisms in estrogen/tamoxifen-metabolizing genes with responsiveness to preventive tamoxifen. Thirty-nine candidate polymorphisms in 17 candidate genes were genotyped in 249 P-1:BCPT cases. CVP2D6_C1111T, individually and within a CYP2D6 haplotype, showed borderline significant association with treatment arm. Path analysis of the entire tamoxifen pathway gene network showed that the tamoxifen pathway model was consistent with the pattern of observed genotype variability within the placebo-arm dataset. However, correlation of variations in genes in the tamoxifen arm differed significantly from the predictions of the tamoxifen pathway model. Strong correlations between allelic variation in the tamoxifen pathway at CYP1A1-CYP3A4, CYP3A4-CYP2C9, and CYP2C9-SULT1A2, in addition to CYP2D6 and its adjacent genes, were seen in the placebo-arm but not the tamoxifen-arm. In conclusion, beyond reinforcing a role for CYP2D6 in tamoxifen response, our pathway analysis strongly suggests that specific combinations of allelic variants in other genes make major contributions to the tamoxifen-resistance phenotype.
Conference Paper
We have created a math learning environment with game-like elements such as narrative, visual feedback, personalization, collection, etc. We made a study with four different versions of the tutor with different degree of ‘game-like’ and found that students preferred more ‘game-like’ tutor but we were not able to detect any conclusive difference in learning. Based on the data we collected through survey, logs and tests, we also built a causal model to understand the interrelationships between different student and tutor variables.
Article
BACKGROUND: Social cognition has been identified as a significant construct for schizophrenia research with relevance to diagnosis, assessment, treatment and functional outcome. However, social cognition has not been clearly understood in terms of its relationships with neurocognition and functional outcomes. The present study sought to examine the empirical independence of social cognition and neurocognition; to investigate the possible causal structure among social cognition, neurocognition and psychosocial functioning.Method The sample consists of 130 individuals diagnosed with schizophrenia. All participants were recruited as they were admitted to four community-based psychosocial rehabilitation programs. Social cognition, neurocognition and psychosocial functioning were measured at baseline and 12 months. The empirical independence of social cognition and neurocognition was tested using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and the possible causal structure among social cognition, neurocognition and psychosocial functioning was investigated using latent difference score (LDS) analysis. RESULTS: A two-factor model of social cognition and neurocognition fit the data very well, indicating the empirical independence of social cognition, whereas the longitudinal CFA results show that the empirical independence of neurocognition and social cognition is maintained over time. The results of the LDS analysis support a causal model that indicates that neurocognition underlies and is causally primary to social cognition, and that neurocognition and social cognition are causally primary to functional outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Social cognition and neurocognition could have independent and distinct upward causal effects on functional outcome. It is also suggested that the approaches for remediation of neurocognition and social cognition might need to be distinct.
Article
Customer churn has emerged as a critical issue for Customer Relationship Management and customer retention in the telecommunications industry, thus churn prediction is necessary and valuable to retain the customers and reduce the losses. Moreover, high predictive accuracy and good interpretability of the results are two key measures of a classification model. More studies have shown that single model-based classification methods may not be good enough to achieve a satisfactory result. To obtain more accurate predictive results, we present a novel hybrid model-based learning system, which integrates the supervised and unsupervised techniques for predicting customer behaviour. The system combines a modified k-means clustering algorithm and a classic rule inductive technique (FOIL).Three sets of experiments were carried out on telecom datasets. One set of the experiments is for verifying that the weighted k-means clustering can lead to a better data partitioning results; the second set of experiments is for evaluating the classification results, and comparing it to other well-known modelling techniques; the last set of experiment compares the proposed hybrid-model system with several other recently proposed hybrid classification approaches. We also performed a comparative study on a set of benchmarks obtained from the UCI repository. All the results show that the hybrid model-based learning system is very promising and outperform the existing models.
Technical Report
Full-text available
Main statistical and narrative regional report from the eight-country survey of school Prinicpals in project ESP1. Principals say parental involvement improves both educational attainment of pupils and the overall school atmosphere. However, parents are involved in a narrow range of ways, and schools could do more to improve home-school communication and to involve parents in school governance. Principals say many parents do not get involved because they lack time and motivation; at least a quarter of parents regularly do not attend meetings.
Article
The objective of this article is to illustrate that from the development of path modeling in the early 20th century to the recent implementation of the TETRAD approach, the question concerning how causal factors can be identified prior to modeling has been a recurring theme to causal modelers and critics. Wright's path analysis is the predecessor of structural equation modeling (SEM), but Wright was ahead of his time and thus his methodology was sadly ignored by his contemporaries. Nevertheless, during the last two decades Glymour attempted to reinstate causal interpretations for the path model using the TETRAD approach, which is considered an extension to SEM. Interestingly enough, Cartwright's slogan "no causes in, no causes out" (1999, 2000) and Freedman's "missing variable argument' (1997, 1998) in response to Glymour's methodology echo the critics of Wright eighty years ago. Although the philosophical puzzle of causation has not been resolved once and for all, there are substantive improvements in the epistemological aspect of causal modeling, such as the introduction of counterfactual reasoning and manipulation theorem. In addition, abductive-based grounded theory is a promising approach to resolve the issue of variable identification prior to path searching. While Cartwright's dismissal of causal discovery by probabilistic modeling may be exaggerated and even counter-productive, her review of various causal theories is noteworthy, and thus it is the conviction of the author that this type of inter-disciplinary inquiry and synthesis should be further pursued in order to advance epistemology and methodology of causal modeling.
Article
Full-text available
According to moral foundations theory, there are five distinct sources of moral intuition on which political liberals and conservatives differ. The present research program seeks to contextualize this taxonomy within the broader research literature on political ideology as motivated social cognition, including the observation that conservative judgments often serve system-justifying functions. In two studies, a combination of regression and path modeling techniques were used to explore the motivational underpinnings of ideological differences in moral intuitions. Consistent with our integrative model, the “binding” foundations (in-group loyalty, respect for authority, and purity) were associated with epistemic and existential needs to reduce uncertainty and threat and system justification tendencies, whereas the so-called “individualizing” foundations (fairness and avoidance of harm) were generally unrelated to epistemic and existential motives and were instead linked to empathic motivation. Taken as a whole, these results are consistent with the position taken by Hatemi, Crabtree, and Smith that moral “foundations” are themselves the product of motivated social cognition.
Article
The role of contacts on travel behavior has been getting increasing attention. This paper reports on data collected on individual�s social meetings and the choice of in-home/out-of-home meeting locations as well as the distance travelled and duration of out-home-meetings and its relationship to the type of contact met and other attributes of the meeting. Empirically we show that in-home meetings tend to occur most often with close contacts and less often with distant contacts. The purpose, meeting day, and household size suggest that leisure, weekend and large household size people tend to have their meetings either at their home or at their contact�s home. In addition when meetings occur outside of the house, the duration is longer for close contacts and distance to the meeting location is directly in�uenced by duration and indirectly by the relationship type. Overall the paper illustrates that relationship type along with other meeting speci�c and demographic variables is important in explaining the location, duration and distance travelled for social meetings.
Article
Full-text available
When Dudley Duncan and others became interested in linear causal models, they discovered a genetic biologist had laid down the groundwork for them over nearly a 50‐year period. This annotated bibliography covers Sewall Wright's development of the method of path coefficients.
Article
Simon's method for making causal inferences from patterns of intercorrelations is applied to a five variable sociological problem. The technique is used in exploratory fashion to develop successive causal models with progressively better prediction equations. It is argued that Simon's method yields more theoretical insights than does partial correlation.
Article
The abstract for this document is available on CSA Illumina.To view the Abstract, click the Abstract button above the document title.