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Delphi Method in Foresight Exercises
... Furthermore, the new sectors are in the stage of formation; therefore, it is difficult to identify the centers and assess the volumes of promising market by traditional methods. Based on this, S.P. Zemtsov [9] suggested the approach combining the features of Foresight Research [10], and network [11] and spatial and [2,4,9] analyses. This paper is a continuation of [9] and seeks to generalize the technique and its implementation for other critical technologies (results for only the environmental research technologies are provided in [9]) according to data for 2011-2012. ...
... To identify higher educational centers uses the foresight techniques. The Delphi procedure [10] is used to select the higher educational institutions, the bearers of the sought-for competences in the context of the critical technologies under consideration. Next, expert surveys from the universities selected are used to determine the sets of competences for each university, and the most developed competences for the country. ...
We examine the approach to studying and forecasting promising markets of rational nature management. The relationships between higher educational institutions—centers of scientific research competences with other organizations are determined. It is found that the flow of knowledge from universities must generate stable regional networks (innovation clusters) to concentrate a significant part of markets. It is established that the most advanced innovation clusters emerged in regions with centers of potential interregional clusters in Moscow, St. Petersburg, Novosibirsk and Tomsk as well as in Perm krai and Tyumen, Belgorod and Kaliningrad oblasts. Largely on the basis of data on funding of state programs, we estimated the total potential volume of the market until 2020. For estimating the proportion of the regions in it, it is suggested that it will be higher if the organizations of relevant regional cluster show a higher publication and patent activity with a large number of interactions. Moscow will concentrate more than 20% and St. Petersburg about 10% of the market of rational environmental management. The total volume of national products and services will make up from 0.2 to 2% of the world market of the sphere under investigation by the year 2020; therefore, it is necessary to enhance the interactions of innovation organizations within the framework of cluster initiatives. But the main problem involves the absence of international cooperation. In fact, these efforts constitute one of the first attempts to study the sector associated with applied research of Earth sciences in Russia.
... To strengthen the development power of research in software-related sectors and thus promote I+D strategies more effectively. On the other hand, Kukushkina (2007) describes best practices in the use of Delphi surveys in foresight activities, Bañuls & Salmeron (2008) propose a forecasting model to detect key areas in the information technology (IT) industry. Kanama, Kondo & Yokoo (2008) examined the integration of the Delphi method with the technology roadmap as a new technology foresight system, Karvonen et al (2008) conducted a study to determine the transformation dynamics of the pulp and paper industry, In turn, Keenan & Popper (2008) propose in their article to explore the nature and degree of variation in the 'style' of prospective in six regions of the world. ...
The purpose of this article is to identify new techniques and tools related to the application of the Delphi method, as well as to show which of these techniques and tools have been applied in future studies for emerging technologies, the methodology used was carried out through the in-depth review of 50 articles directly related and obtained from the Scopus database, which had as criteria the focus on emerging technologies, sector of application, time horizon and methods used, an analysis on two axes of discussion was carried out techniques and methods used in future studies compared with the proposals by authors such as Popper and Smith and Saritas, and applications in emerging technologies, at the end 26 new methods and 153 emerging technologies were found prioritized.
... Имеется несколько десятков методов прогнозирования, среди которых дельфийский метод, критические технологии, разработка сценариев, технологическая дорожная карта, формирование экспертных панелей, метод фокальных объектов, «мозговая атака», метод контрольных вопросов, метод лицом к лицу, метод комиссий, метод ситуационного анализа, заочный опрос экспертов, метод панельного опроса экспертов с использованием техники деструктивной отнесенной оценки (классификацию методов прогнозирования см., например, в работах [40,[42][43][44]). Перечисленные методы объединяет то, что в качестве доминирующего источника прогнозной информации выступают оценки высококвалифицированных экспертов [42,45]. ...
Introduction. The implementation of inclusive education in the Russian comprehensive schools is a multidimensional process followed by a complex of organisational and methodological problems. The participants of this process have expressed diverging views on the following ideas: what sequence it has to be implemented; who has to become a leading actor implementing new educational principles into practice; what main structural changes of the developed system in general education have to be in connection with the introduction of inclusive education. It is necessary to analyse and understand the existing disagreements between all participants of a process. Undoubtedly, the experts of inclusive education, who are directly engaged in its theory and practice, can give the most exact answers to arising acute issues. Their experience and skill level allow a picture of situation to be presented in the most objective way.
The aim of the research was to analyse main models of a current stage and prospects in development of inclusive education inMoscow and throughoutRussia.
Methodology and research methods . The research was based on the methodology of scenario approach. In June 2015, the Laboratory of Monitoring Studies at the Moscow State University of Psychology & Education implemented the research “Prospects for the development of inclusive education in Moscow” in the form of expert scenario-prognostic monitoring (method of ESMM). In the course of the survey, 81 experts (practitioners, scientists, representatives of educational organisations and the public, managers) were interviewed. The quantitative way of representing the estimates by respondents allowed formal and mathematical methods to be used when processing the results – the factorial and correlation types of analysis using the IBM SPSS Statistics software package.
Results and scientific novelty. The vast majority of representatives of expert community were quite pessimistic about the situation on the introduction of inclusive concept of education in Moscow. Concerning the most relevant issues, professional and psychological unreadiness of personnel structure of educational institutions to perform labour duties in the new conditions of training and education for younger generation was ranked as a prevailing idea. Moreover, among other issues, the author noted insufficient number of inclusive schools in Moscow, absence of pedagogical support for children with disabilities, as well as special educational conditions, including programmes for social adaptation.
Based on the distribution of peer reviews, three main models of developing inclusive education systems were revealed and described: state, social and educational. When organising and supporting a joint form of education for children with different needs inRussia, the priority is given to state structures in the first (state) model; in the second (social) – to public organisations. The third (educational) model is focused on gradual transition, in which the former rehabilitative educational establishments should be maintained by forging productive collaboration with comprehensive schools.
Practical significance. Clearly defined experts’ standpoints in relation to the current stage of developing inclusive education allow us to better understand ongoing processes. In addition, the knowledge of characteristics of each of them contributes to forecasting its possible development and adopting more effective management decisions.
... Foresight Centre successfully deve lops and implements projects, works out methodology and promotes active Foresight implementation in forecast and management practice [7]. National Foresight paradigm is being formed by such Russian scientists as N. V. Gaponenko (2012) [8], L. M. Gokhberg (2014) [9], O. I. Karasev (2015) [10], B. N. Kuzyka (2008) [11], I. R. Kuklina (2009) [12], S. N. Kukushkina (2007) [13], A. V. Sokolova (2014) [14; 15], V. P. Tretiak (2009) [16], F. M. Safina (2013) [17] etc. Many areas of Foresight have been formed on the basis of theoretical and practical aspects of forecasting and planning. ...
The study is aimed at methods and foresight project technologies systematizing on the basis of international and Russian experience. The necessity of applying adaptable forecasting techniques when working out foresight projects of controlled objects' sustainable development has been substantiated. It has been concluded that objective and reliable forecasting of the development of economic, technological, ecological, social, political, cultural and other spheres of public activities is an extremely important resource of public administration enhancement and achievement of the goals of economic entities and the society as whole.
The process of transport clustering is a tool for the regional spatial development of the country, since it contributes to the elimination of infrastructural constraints, increasing the availability and quality of the main transport infrastructure and increasing the competitiveness of the territory. The choice of a territory for the creation of a transport and logistics cluster (hereinafter - TLC) is an important stage in the development of the clustering process, but there is no methodology that assesses the conditions of the region for the creation of a TLC. The aim of the work is to develop a methodology for assessing the readiness of the territory to create a TLC. To achieve this goal, the following tasks were completed: indicators were developed that characterize the conditions for the creation of a TLC; mathematical tools of the methodology were developed; three groups of regions were identified according to the value of assessing readiness for the creation of a TLC; the methodology was tested in the regions of the Russian Federation and subjects ready to create a transport cluster were identified. As a result of the methodology approbation the regions of the Russian Federation were assessed according to the degree of readiness for transport clustering, which forms the basis for the spatial development of the territory.
The article examines an expert survey as the effective way to obtain information which is necessary to form a unified statistical information base of industrial facilities in terms of their energy efficiency. The conceptual model for developing a methodology for the expert survey of leading Russian and world experts in the field of energy efficiency and energy saving is presented. The model reflects the main elements which should be taken into account when conducting it. The toolkit for conducting the survey is proposed, which determines the basis for the classification of industrial facilities according to their level of energy efficiency. The analysis of expert opinions will make it possible to draw unambiguous conclusions to the overall opinion issues of the study and reach a consensus on its key problems.
Funding: The reported study was funded by RFBR, project number 20-010-00754
The number of drugs registered on the medicinal drugs market is constantly growing. At that, an analysis of the clinical effectiveness has shown that only a small share of the innovative medicinal drugs that have appeared at the international market have qualitative advantages compared with those being in use already. The purpose of the work: to develop an effective tool to test the working hypothesis, which is based on the assumption that the effectiveness of treatment largely depends on overcoming the barriers and ensuring the availability of medical technology. Materials and methods: the article uses an analytical method and a logical generalization method for creating a questionnaire. Also, it uses the Delphi method as the main research method, the essence of which is joint stage-by-stage work of experts in the field of oncology and public health organization. At the first stage, the paper identifies the main analyzed groups of oncological diseases and the most significant influencing factors that are systematized in the final version of the questionnaire. Results: the questionnaire consists of 33 questions reflecting various aspects of changes in issue of access to medical aid during the last 10 years. The expert evaluated each aspect in relation to 14 groups of oncological diseases identified according to the World Health Organization's X Classification of Diseases X revision. Conclusion: The Delphi method is an effective tool for obtaining an independent expert assessment of healthcare organization and public health issues.
Success of developing economic culture of high school students at additional education institutions depends on application of up-to-date educational technologies. The «educational foresight» method allows engaging high school students into economic activity: diverse, motivating, and problematic in mastering.
The increasingly competitive nature of the international economy, and the associated structural changes which have taken place, have led policymakers in industrialised countries towards a renewed emphasis upon innovation as an instrument of industrial policy. During the 1980s this was most apparent in the emergence of national and international schemes to support collaborative research in the so-called “new technologies”: principally IT, telecommunications, new materials and biotechnology. Despite a prevailing non-interventionist stance among governments, these technologies were perceived as being too important to risk being left behind. The complex and fast moving nature of the under-pinning knowledge-base was used to justify both the collaborative dimension (through the need to combine skills and share costs and risks) and governmental support (to compensate for market failure, where private benefits were difficult to appropriate in full).