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Abstract
In the constraints of tourism resources and environment, how to develop regional economy, improve the capability of tourist reception, and stimulate both tourism and surrounding industries to grow collaboratively is gradually becoming a key point to keep the development of tourist destinations sustainable. Due to sustainable development in relation to the long-term planning, the research on the mutual relationships among economy, environment and other systems of tourist destinations, and the mechanism of long-term effects has proved to be the focus of managers of scenic areas and scholars. This paper discussed dynamic mechanism of sustainable development of economic circle in tourist destinations, of which tourism is pillar industry, built system dynamics model of subsystems of economic circle and then simulated. Finally, system inherently dynamic mechanism of developmental, mature and recessionary periods from this economic circle was analyzed, to provide a basis for prolonging the duration of mature period, slowing decline velocity of recession, and promoting sustainable development of economic circle in tourist destinations.
... Hence, to develop and promoting employment in Setiu Wetland, the business must first bloom here. There are several factors should be taken into consideration such as population and locomotion of goods [40] [41] [42]. Hence, by strengthening both population and locomotion aspects, we believed, the business will bloom and employed population density will rise. ...
... Next, allocating a suitable business area to grow without neglecting the sustainability of the environment and conservation area's needs. Focusing onto tourism industry and promoting Setiu as a gateway for robust tourism and leisure lifestyle [42]. Last but not least, invest in community development based on their specialty. ...
In this paper, a system dynamics approach is used instead of the traditional approaches to stimulate, forecast and analyze the economic effects of an existing policy practice in Setiu Wetland. As a part of Setiu district that uphold tradition in fishery and maritime based industry, Setiu Wetland area seems to be left behind in terms of economic and livelihood. Generally, Setiu development policy consists of five subsystem including population growth, economic, residential, transportation and suburban sprawl. Due to their widespread population distribution, Setiu Wetland receives low urban-related progress. Hence, a forecast of 30 years from 2016 to 2046 providing a necessary insight for potential development of the Setiu Wetland region, to simulate its environment, identify gaps, propose suitable land model towards Setiu Minapolitan area (Peri-urban area) and suggest directions for future studies particularly in economic and livelihood for local authorities to develop with.
... A system dynamics has been utilized to examine development of tourism in Kenya. As they finds that development there resulting series of negative impacts, they suggest that system dynamics must be used to provide insights and balancing between negative and positive impacts for this kind of tourism development [15]. A research on how to stimulate both surrounding industry and tourism has been conducted for they may growth collaborate in order to create sustainable tourism activity and promote economic growth [16]. ...
The sustainability of ecotourism is the backbone of tourism development of a country. Ecotourism can contribute to both conservation and development in which involves dynamic relationship between tourism, biodiversity and communities, facilitate by great management. The purpose of this study is to analyze the dimensions of the socio-economic and environmental impacts of ecotourism in communities surrounding the Tasik Kenyir in Terengganu, Malaysia. This study provides a framework for the development and evaluation of ecotourism. The framework will determine if the relationships between indicators are positively correlated which will result in positive contribution to the other by using System Dynamic. Socio-cultural and economic data will be collected through interviews and group discussions in selected communities in Tasik Kenyir. Data on wildlife will be extracted from secondary data from Kenyir Research Institute, Universiti Malaysia Terengganu. The data analysis will explore the socio-cultural and economic differences between and within different communities due to ecotourism development, the contribution of ecotourism to conservation activities, local support for conservation and ecotourism as well as the influence of tourist activities on the distribution of wildlife species in Tasik Kenyir. This study aims to contribute toward understanding the natural resource community-ecotourism inter-relationship and help to bridge the knowledge gap that hinders biodiversity conservation initiatives. The findings will be used as a base for further development of ecotourism and will recommend alternative management options where necessary for the study area.
... China's tourism industry develops faster than other countries as Chinese people's living standards improve significantly along with the rapid development of the OPEN ACCESS national economy [3]. However, the expansion of the tourism industry and the growing number of tourists have contributed to congestion and environmental damages in scenic spots, as more garbage, sewage and carbon emissions are brought about by the increasing tourists [4]. Tourism is prosperous all over the world, especially in western China [5], therefore, the realization of sustainable development in the tourism industry has caught the eyes of many scenic spot managers and scholars. ...
In the field of tourism, the development of tourist attractions is playing an increasingly crucial role in tourism economy, regional economy and national economy. However, the eco-environment has been damaged while tourism industry develops rapidly. Thus, to solve the contradiction between tourism development and eco-environment protection is the key to achieving sustainable development of tourism. This paper builds a SD model, which is based on the analysis of the economic subsystem and environment subsystem, to promote sustainable development. In order to show the effectiveness of the model, Jiuzhai Valley is taken as the research object and a decisive basis is provided for the path adjustment of sustainable development in tourist scenic.
Sustainable development is the key factor which attracts managers and scenic scholars attention. In the scenic system, economic subsystem, environment subsystem and scenic space subsystem are the major factors affecting the scenic sustainable development. In this paper, we analyze the relationship among them and build a system dynamics model to simulate the operation of scenic system which can show scenic states in the future. In order to provide workable proposals for sustainable development, we take Jiuzhai Valley as a research object, and use sensitivity analysis to find the impact of quantity of pollutants discharged, quantity of pollutants disposed, and average daily tourist reception capacity on the scenic development. From the sensitivity analysis, we conclude that adjusting quantity of pollutants discharged and disposed and average daily tourist reception capacity can improve the sustainable development of scenic. Finally, Some suggestions are put forward to Jiuzhai Valley managers.
The article deals with mathematical modeling of sustainable tourism development. The proposed approach allows for a more cost-effective manner, as compared with other instruments, to prove effective management options in tourism development in the regions. Described are the interaction and interrelationship between main factors determining the state and dynamic characteristics of sustainable tourism on a regional scale. It is shown that the construction of models of sustainable tourism in a particular region should take into account the parameters of its economic development, environmental conditions, characteristics of social relations, as well as natural and cultural potential of a specific area. It is noted that a special importance for the formation parameters of sustainable tourism has an effective organization of destination management. Based on the regulations of UNWTO, the following main criteria management are suggested: sustainable management of destinations, maximizing social and economic benefits for the local population with minimal impact on it, maximizing benefits for traveling and cultural heritage sites with minimal impact on them, maximizing the benefits for the natural environment and minimizing the negative impact on it. On the basis of these criteria, the basic principles of modeling are highlighted: a systematic account of interacting factors that determine the development of sustainable tourism, the use of integrated criteria when evaluating options for sustainable tourism, the direction of the modeling of process as a basis for effective management for destinations. Based on the research, the author concluds that the development of a mathematical model for sustainable tourism in a particular region should take into account two groups of factors affecting its development: interpersonal contacts between the "experienced" tourists and newcomers on the one hand, and the impact of advertising and travel agencies, on the other. The author provides an aggregated view of a model of sustainable tourism as a nonlinear differential equation of diffusion of innovations tourist. Qualitative solution of the equation in the form of an S-shaped curve is suggested. To understand the impact of innovation processes in the development of tourism, the author suggests an analysis of the statistical distribution of the individuals involved in innovation related to sustainable tourism.
This article presents an analysis of the contribution of international inbound tourism to economies of developing nations with special reference to Turkey. It shows that the contribution of international inbound tourism to the Turkish economy appears to be significant in absolute terms. However, when compared with that of other competing European countries, the economic benefits of international inbound tourism seem not to have reached a satisfactory level. Moreover, analysis of available statistics reveals that the contribution of international inbound tourism to the Turkish economy has been overstated. For example, after a change in the method of data collection, the figure for tourist spending per capita is found to increase dramatically and out of all proportion to tourist spending per capita figures in neighbouring Greece, though there seems to be no significant difference between the tourism demand profile of each country. By taking into account the tourism demand profile of Turkey, the stiff price competition among identical tourist destination countries, the nature of tourism demand, the dependence of tourism on international tour operators and a few tourist-generating countries, and the peculiarities of jobs generated by tourism, the author concludes that the contribution of international tourism to the Turkish economy is too precarious, unreliable, and difficult to sustain in future. It is suggested that international tourism should not be seen as an engine of export-led economic growth strategy, nor as the principal long-term source of employment and foreign exchange in the developing world. In this context, it is further recommended that profits from tourism should be directed into other sectors of the economy in developing nations.
Accurately and adequately modelling and analyzing relationships in real random phenomena involving several variables are prominent areas in statistical data analysis. Applications of such models are crucial and lead to severe economic and financial implications in human society. Since the beginning of developments in Statistical methodology as the formal scientific discipline, correlation based regression methods have played a central role in understanding and analyzing multivariate relationships primarily in the context of the normal distribution world and under the assumption of linear association. In this paper, we aim to focus on presenting notion of dependence of random variables in statistical sense and mathematical requirements of dependence measures. We consider copula functions and mutual information which are employed to characterize dependence. Some results on copulas and mutual information as measure of dependence are presented and illustrated using real examples. We conclude by discussing some possible research questions and by listing the important contributions in this area.
Units of the National Park System are required to develop a general management plan that is consistent with visitor carrying capacities. Newer definitions of carrying capacities for protected areas, such as national parks and wilderness areas, are in terms of the acceptability of natural resource and human impacts as measured by selected biophysical resource and social conditions, rather than the number of visitors. Most methods for evaluating carrying capacity are non-quantitative and lack analytical rigor. Carrying capacity decisions are easier to justify when based on quantitative methods. This paper describes a carrying capacity modeling system that allows park managers to quantitatively determine whether the current state of a park's ecosystem is in compliance with established standards for carrying capacities and, in cases where it is not, to identify the management action having the greatest likelihood of bringing the ecosystem into compliance with those standards. The modeling system uses an ex post adaptive ecosystem management (AEM) model to determine whether the current state of an ecosystem complies with biophysical and social carrying capacities, and an ex ante multiple attribute scoring test of capacity (MASTEC) to identify the best management action for achieving compliance. The AEM model addresses potential errors that can occur when inferring an ecosystem's state from resource/social conditions. Errors occur when a manager decides that an ecosystem is in one state when in reality it is in another state. The consequences of such errors are greater when resource/social conditions are at the extremes. The AEM model minimizes the likelihood of such decision errors by using Bayes’ rule to determine the state of an ecosystem. The MASTEC method allows a park manager to identify the best management action for bringing an incompliant ecosystem into compliance with carrying capacities. It integrates elements of two carrying capacity methods, Limits of Acceptable Change and Visitor Impact Management, and multiple attribute decision-making. The latter characterizes management actions in terms of their multiple biophysical and social attributes. The best management action maximizes the manager's expected utility function subject to stochastic carrying capacity constraints that require the probability that the value of an attribute exceeds its standard to be no less than a reliability level selected by the manager. Several factors limit the ability of national parks to implement the carrying capacity modeling system. Using a spatial decision support tool to implement the modeling system eases some of these limitations.
This paper considers a kind of generalized measure of fault
tolerance in the (n,k)-star graph for
and , and determines
, which implies
that at least edges of have to
remove to get a disconnected graph that contains no vertices of degree less
than h. This result shows that the (n,k)-star graph is robust when it is
used to model the topological structure of a large-scale parallel processing
system.
Based on the primary of port economics, the application of System Dynamics in port development is review, and the dynamic mechanism of port economics is analyze, the System Dynamic model of sustainable development of port economics being developed. Finally, the simulation result is proposed.
We analyze effects of reaching the maximum sustainable yield (MSY) in a system of n cooperating logistic populations under proportional harvesting strategy. In case a selective harvesting effort adjusted to each species is implemented, the optimum effort is smaller than half the biotic potential of each species. This results in the total maximum sustainable yield (TMSY1) which does not affect the persistence of the system. In case the system is harvested with a common harvesting effort which is approximately the same for all cooperating species, like in a trawler fishing, the optimum harvesting effort leads to the TMSY2, where TMSY1 ≥ TMSY2. In addition, species with lower biotic potential and carrying capacity may be driven to extinction, especially if these species weakly cooperate with the rest of the system. Hence, a call for implementation of TMSY2 may be equivalent to a call for extermination of some species, and it runs against the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD, 1992). Since the documents advocating MSY, starting with the Johannesburg Implementation plan (IP, 2002) and including the EU Green Paper (EU, 2009), use TMSY2, the call for MSY must be urgently retracted and replaced with a call for adaptive management that respects CBD.
This paper develops a framework for employing the concept of tourism yield in a multidimensional manner, in particular applied to various quality of life aspects promoted by sustainable development. Most analysts employ a narrow economic definition of yield while paying some attention to the triple bottom line. Here, a framework is proposed that not only seeks to conceptualize tourism yield across a broad range of spheres, but also incorporates sustainable parameters using a systems approach. Rottnest Island—a popular Australian destination—is employed as a case study to demonstrate how the model can be used for assessment and decisionmaking in planning.RésuméConceptualisation du rendement: gestion du tourisme durable. Cet article développe un cadre pour employer le concept du rendement du tourisme d’une façon pluridimensionnelle, surtout quand celui-ci s’applique aux divers aspects de la qualité de vie promus par le développement durable. La plupart des analystes utilisent une définition strictement économique du rendement tout en accordant une certaine importance au triple bilan. On propose ici un cadre non seulement pour conceptualiser le rendement du tourisme à travers un large éventail de domaines mais aussi pour incorporer des paramètres de durabilité par une approche de systèmes. On utilise l’Île de Rottnest, une destination australienne très courue, comme étude de cas pour démontrer comment utiliser le modèle pour l’évaluation et la prise de décisions dans la planification.
The original publication is available at http://www.springer.com/ This paper reports on an on-going project on urban sustainability, the Puerto Aura in the region of the Valsequillo Lake in Puebla, Mexico. As part of the project, a simulation model was built to explore the dynamic interaction of the dimensions inherent in sustainable urban development. After reviewing literature on sustainable urban development (SUD) frameworks and tools, we identify key variables that intervene in SUD. We propose a System Dynamics model to simulate the dimensions that intervene in a sustainable development and to anticipate the consequences of the decision making process. The structure and inter-relationships of four sectors in the proposed model are described, the sustainability indicators in each sector explained. Preliminary conclusions are drawn stating that a complete run of the model simulating a 20 years horizon in monthly periods is expected when the full data from the Puerto Aura master plan becomes available.