Climate change impacts in Central Asia and their implications for development

Abstract

This paper synthesizes what is known about the physical and biophysical impacts of climate change and their consequences for societies and development under different levels of global warming in Central Asia.
Projections show mean temperatures increasing by up to 6.5 °C compared to pre-industrial by the end of this century across the region. Associated physical impacts include altered precipitation regimes, more frequent heat extremes and increasing aridity. Increasing rates of glacial and snow melt could lead to greater river runoff, but also to greater seasonality of runoff in the short term and to decreasing water availability in the medium term to long term. These changes have negative implications for the water availability in the region and for conflicting water demands between agriculture and hydropower. Climate change could mostly decrease crop yields, challenging food security, but in more northern regions there could also be positive effects. Studies on climate change impacts on energy systems are scarce and yield conflicting results, but the more regional study shows decreasing prospects for hydropower. The health of the population is already sensitive to heat extremes and is projected to be exposed to more frequent and prolonged heat waves in the future, among other potential health impacts. While the evidence for a link between climate and migration is weak, the rural-to-urban migration can be especially expected to intensify. The paper concludes that Central Asia will be severely affected by climate change even if the global mean temperature increase is limited to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, due to the potential for impacts to occur simultaneously and compound one another as well as interactions with wider development challenges, while risks will be strongly amplified if this threshold is crossed.

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1 23
Regional Environmental Change
ISSN 1436-3798
Reg Environ Change
DOI 10.1007/s10113-015-0893-z
Climate change impacts in Central Asia
and their implications for development
Christopher P.O Reyer, Ilona M.Otto,
Sophie Adams, Torsten Albrecht,
Florent Baarsch, Matti Cartsburg, Dim
Coumou, Alexander Eden, et al.

1 23
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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Climate change impacts in Central Asia and their implications
for development
Christopher P.O Reyer
1
•Ilona M. Otto
1,2
•Sophie Adams
3,4
•Torsten Albrecht
1
•
Florent Baarsch
3
•Matti Cartsburg
5
•Dim Coumou
1
•Alexander Eden
1
•
Eva Ludi
6
•Rachel Marcus
6
•Matthias Mengel
1,3
•Beatrice Mosello
6
•
Alexander Robinson
1,7,8
•Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
1,3
•Olivia Serdeczny
3
•
Judith Stagl
1
Received: 11 February 2015 / Accepted: 27 October 2015
ÓInternational Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank 2015
Abstract This paper synthesizes what is known about the
physical and biophysical impacts of climate change and
their consequences for societies and development under
different levels of global warming in Central Asia. Pro-
jections show mean temperatures increasing by up to
6.5 °C compared to pre-industrial by the end of this century
across the region. Associated physical impacts include
altered precipitation regimes, more frequent heat extremes
and increasing aridity. Increasing rates of glacial and snow
melt could lead to greater river runoff, but also to greater
seasonality of runoff in the short term and to decreasing
water availability in the medium term to long term. These
changes have negative implications for the water avail-
ability in the region and for conflicting water demands
between agriculture and hydropower. Climate change
could mostly decrease crop yields, challenging food secu-
rity, but in more northern regions there could also be
positive effects. Studies on climate change impacts on
energy systems are scarce and yield conflicting results, but
the more regional study shows decreasing prospects for
hydropower. The health of the population is already sen-
sitive to heat extremes and is projected to be exposed to
more frequent and prolonged heat waves in the future,
among other potential health impacts. While the evidence
for a link between climate and migration is weak, the rural-
to-urban migration can be especially expected to intensify.
The paper concludes that Central Asia will be severely
affected by climate change even if the global mean tem-
perature increase is limited to 2 °C above pre-industrial
levels, due to the potential for impacts to occur simulta-
neously and compound one another as well as interactions
with wider development challenges, while risks will be
strongly amplified if this threshold is crossed.
Keywords Development Global change Poverty 
Projections Scenarios Sustainability
Introduction
Climate change impact studies for Central Asia (CA,
defined here as Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajik-
istan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan) are scarce (Hijioka
et al. 2014), and it remains largely unclear how different
levels of climate warming play out in different subregions
and across different sectors. The objective of this paper is
to fill this gap by analyzing physical and biophysical
impacts of climate change in CA, and their consequences
for societies and development, in an integrated way thereby
Electronic supplementary material The online version of this
article (doi:10.1007/s10113-015-0893-z) contains supplementary
material, which is available to authorized users.
&Christopher P.O Reyer
christopher.reyer@pik-potsdam.de; reyer@pik-potsdam.de
1
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research,
Telegrafenberg, P.O. Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
2
School of Public Affairs, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou,
China
3
Climate Analytics, Friedrichstr 231 - Haus B, 10969 Berlin,
Germany
4
University of New South Wales, High St, Kensington,
NSW 2052, Australia
5
Agripol - Network for Policy Advice GbR, Gustav-Adolf-
Straße 130, 13086 Berlin, Germany
6
Overseas Development Institute, 203 Blackfriars Road,
London SE1 8NJ, UK
7
Universidad Complutense de Madrid, 28040 Madrid, Spain
8
Instituto de Geociencias, UCM-CSIC, 28040 Madrid, Spain
123
Reg Environ Change
DOI 10.1007/s10113-015-0893-z
Author's personal copy

updating and extending the analysis presented in
Schellnhuber et al. (2014). We synthesize climate impacts
as a function of different levels of global warming at the
end of the twenty-first century compared to pre-industrial
levels (1.5, 2, 3, and 4 °C; cf. Table ESM.1 and
Schellnhuber et al. 2014: Appendix 4) to show what these
warming levels mean for CA. We focus on warming levels
in general and on a 2 and 4 °C world (following the
warming pathways of the scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5,
respectively) in particular since these are important ele-
ments of global climate change negotiations. Our focus on
global warming levels and the regional impacts associated
with is meant to provide a regional dimension to these
global numbers. However, it is evident that global mean
temperature change can be associated with different pat-
terns of regional climate change captured by our analysis of
regional climate change projections from different climate
models (‘‘Regional patterns of climate change’’ section).
We combine original data analyses, model projections
and meta-analyses of published studies with a compre-
hensive literature review (the methodological approach is
presented in Schellnhuber et al. 2014, especially in
Appendices A.1–3). The impacts of climate change in CA
under different warming levels are synthesized in Fig. 3
and Table ESM.1. The temperature, precipitation, evapo-
transpiration and aridity projections are based on five
CMIP5 GCMs (see Table ESM.2 Schellnhuber et al. 2014:
Appendix A.1).
Socioeconomic profile of Central Asia
The total population of the region in 2013 was 66.3 million
people, with Kazakhstan (with six persons 9km
-2
) being
the least and Uzbekistan (with 70 persons 9km
-2
) being
the most densely populated (World Bank 2013a). Popula-
tion projections indicate on average 50 % population
increase in CA by 2050 (Lutz 2010). There are significant
differences in urbanization among the countries in the
region, e.g., the urban population in Tajikistan was 27 % of
the total population in 2012 and 53 % in Kazakhstan (see
Table ESM.3). GDP per capita is lowest in Tajikistan
($1000) and highest in Kazakhstan ($13,600) in 2013 (see
Table ESM.3). Agricultural production contributes an
important share to the local economies, especially in
Tajikistan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Uzbekistan (see
Table ESM.3).
All countries in the region underwent a transition from
closed, plan-based economies to more open and free mar-
ket-based ones at the end of the twentieth century. This
transition, with the dissolution of trade networks and pro-
duction shifts, was accompanied by a steep increase in
poverty and inequality. The highest poverty rates (counted
as poverty headcount ratio at national poverty lines) are
currently observed in Tajikistan (47.2 % in 2009) and the
Kyrgyz Republic (36.8 % in 2011), while Kazakhstan
(5.5 % in 2011) has the lowest poverty headcount ratio in
the region (World Bank 2014b). However, the number of
people that are affected by extreme poverty has been
declining since 1999.
There are also pronounced inequalities in the region. In
the Kyrgyz Republic, for example, the income share of the
poorest 10 % of the population was 2.8 % compared to an
income share of 27.8 % for the richest 10 % of the popu-
lation in 2009 (World Bank 2014d). Other challenges in the
region include rural poverty, unemployment (particularly
among women), poor housing conditions, poor medical
care, deficient water management infrastructure or lack of
energy in winter (Lioubimtseva and Henebry 2009; World
Bank 2012). Most poor people are concentrated in smaller
and medium-sized towns, which have suffered dispropor-
tionately from the closure of Soviet-era industries (World
Bank and IMF 2013).
The adverse effects of gradual climate change will be
felt most acutely by those parts of the population that are
already more vulnerable owing to their gender, age, and
disability or those involved in rain-fed subsistence agri-
culture or pastoralism (Government of the Republic of
Tajikistan 2014). In the Kyrgyz Republic, for example,
women and children are especially vulnerable to the
impacts of climate change because of the time they spend
in hazard-prone areas (e.g., in houses located in flood-
prone or landslide hazard zones), the greater overall pro-
portion of women than men in rural areas and changes in
work patterns, particularly increased involvement in agri-
culture and livestock activities, as a result of male migra-
tion (Kelly et al. 2013). For example, women in the Talas,
Chui, Naryn and Issyk-Kul Oblasts suffered more than men
in cases of snowfall as it reduced access to areas where
fodder and fuel is bought or collected, making it harder for
women to carry out their daily chores. (Kelly et al. 2013).
Regional patterns of climate change
Temperature projections
Warming across the CA land area is projected to be
somewhat more than the global mean. The multi-model
mean boreal summer warming in 2071–2099 is about 2.5
and 6.5 °C above 1951–1980, in 2 and 4 °C world,
respectively (Fig. ESM.1). The normalized warming (i.e.,
the warming expressed in terms of the local year-to-year
natural variability) indicates how unusual the projected
warming is compared to fluctuations experienced in the
past (Coumou and Robinson 2013; Hansen et al. 2012;
Mora et al. 2013). The geographical patterns of normalized
C. Reyer et al.
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warming (top right panel in Fig. 1, lower panels in
Fig. ESM.2) show that the southern parts of the region (i.e.,
toward northern China) experience the strongest shifts. In a
2°C world, the monthly summer temperature distribution
here shifts by 2–3 standard deviations toward warmer
conditions (Fig. ESM.3). In a 4 °C world, these southerly
regions see a shift of up to 6–7 standard deviations. Such a
large shift implies that summer temperatures in these
regions could move to a new climatic regime by the end of
the century. The northern regions could see a less pro-
nounced shift in normalized temperature because the
standard deviation of the natural year-to-year variability is
larger (i.e., temperatures are already naturally more vari-
able, Coumou and Robinson 2013). Nevertheless, a shift by
at least 1-sigma (in the 2 °C world) or 3-sigma (in the 4 °C
world) is projected to occur here during the twenty-first
century. Most studies focusing on CA agree that the
warming trend in mean annual temperatures is less pro-
nounced in the high altitudes than in the lower elevation
plains and protected intramontane valleys (Unger-Shayes-
teh et al. 2013). For the winter months, a stronger warming
trend can be detected at higher elevations of the Tien Shan
Mountains (Kriegel et al. 2013; Mannig et al. 2013; Zhang
et al. 2009).
Heat extremes
In a 4 °C world, threshold-exceeding heat extremes (e.g.,
3- and 5-sigma events, which reach levels of 3 or 5
standard deviations above the mean, respectively) strongly
increase in the southern parts of the region (Fig. 1lower
panels, see Schellnhuber et al. 2014: Appendix A.1 for
more detailed explanations of 3- and 5-sigma events). In a
2°C world, only localized subregions are projected to
experience 20–30 % of summer months to be warmer than
3-sigma by the end of the century and 5-sigma events
remain essentially absent (see Fig. ESM.4). In a 4 °C
world, the multi-model mean projects around 80 % of land
area to be affected by events hotter than 3-sigma and about
50 % of land area to be affected by hotter than 5-sigma
events by 2071–2099 (Fig. ESM.4). The bulk of these
events occur in a widespread region south of approximately
50°N, stretching from the Caspian sea to central China.
Here, over the 2071–2099 period, about 80 % of summer
months could be beyond 3-sigma, and 40 % beyond
5-sigma. Although the 3-sigma threshold level could
become the new normal in regions north of 50°N (being
exceeded in about half of the summer months), 5-sigma
heat extremes could remain largely absent.
The increase in the frequency of summer months war-
mer than 3-sigma or 5-sigma, as shown in Fig. ESM.5, is
quantitatively consistent, with published results of the full
set of climate models (Coumou and Robinson 2013). The
published literature also clearly indicates a strong increase
in heat extremes south of 50°N and a more moderate
increase to the north (Sillmann et al. 2013). South of
approximately 50°N, the number of tropical nights
increases by 20–30 days in a 2 °C world and by
Fig. 1 Temperature changes in Central Asia for RCP8.5 (4 °C world)
for the boreal summer months (JJA). Multi-model mean temperature
anomalies in degree Celsius (top row left) are averaged over the time
period 2071–2099 relative to 1951–1980, and normalized by the local
standard deviation (top row right). Multi-model mean of the
percentage of boreal summer months (JJA) in the time period
2071–2099 with temperatures greater than 3-sigma (bottom row left)
and 5-sigma (bottom row right). The multi-model analysis is based on
GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-
CHEM, NorESM1-M
Climate change impacts in Central Asia and their implications for development
123
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50–60 days in a 4 °C world (Sillmann et al. 2013). Tem-
peratures experienced during the warmest 10 % of summer
nights during the 1961–1990 period are expected to occur in
about 30 % (2 °C world) or 90 % (4 °Cworld)ofsummer
nights by the end of the century. These changes could cause
a strong increase in the length of warm spells, by up to
90–150 days in a 4 °C world (Sillmann et al. 2013).
Precipitation projections
Future changes in annual precipitation exhibit a southwest–
northeast dipole pattern, with regions in the southwest
becoming drier and regions in the northeast becoming
wetter (Fig. 2, Fig. ESM.6). The changes in precipitation
are far more pronounced during the winter (DJF) than
during summer (JJA). The multi-model mean drying signal
in the southwest is very weak (almost flat) in a 2 °C world,
and models disagree about the direction of change
(Fig. ESM.6). In a 4 °C world, Turkmenistan and parts of
Tajikistan and Uzbekistan could receive less rain, with the
multi-model mean annual precipitation dropping by about
20 % and somewhat stronger relative decreases in summer.
The models used here agree on the sign of change in pre-
cipitation. Nevertheless, these projections should be treated
with caution due to the limited number of GCMs used.
Moreover, it has been documented that the present gener-
ation of GCMs is not capable of reproducing the observed
seasonal cycle of precipitation in Central Asia (Bhend and
Whetton 2013).
Extreme precipitation and droughts
No clear trend for precipitation extremes emerges from the
observational record (Dai 2012; Donat et al. 2013). While
uncertainties are large, the projected trends in heavy pre-
cipitation intensity are found to be below the global aver-
age (Kharin et al. 2013; Sillmann et al. 2013). A moderate
increase in drought risk for CA is projected (Dai 2012;
Prudhomme et al. 2013), but confidence in the projections
is very low (Sillmann et al. 2013).
Aridity
Apart from a reduction in precipitation, regions can also
dry due to enhanced evaporation (expressed as potential
evapotranspiration) in a warmer world. Changes in poten-
tial evapotranspiration depend primarily on changes in
temperature under future scenarios and hence the patterns
of change resemble warming patterns (Fig. ESM.7). Across
all CA, potential evapotranspiration increases exerting a
drying effect on soils. Thus, in those regions which are
projected to see a decrease in precipitation, soils are pro-
jected to dry even more due to enhanced evaporation. The
combined effect of potential evapotranspiration and pre-
cipitation is captured by the aridity index (see Schellnhuber
et al. 2014: Appendix 1), i.e., the long-term (in)balance
between water supply (precipitation) and demand (evapo-
transpiration). This aridity index is projected to increase
under future warming (Table ESM.4). In a 4 °C world, the
area of land classified as hyper-arid or arid could grow
from about 29.6 % in 1951–1980 to 36.8 % in 2071–2099,
which is an increase of more than 20 %. In a 2 °C world,
this increase in arid regions is much more limited (only
about 6 % larger).
Regional impacts
Glacial and snow melt
Central Asian glaciers are mostly found in the Kyrgyz
Republic (Tien Shan) and Tajikistan (Pamir) but some
glaciers also exist in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Glacier
Fig. 2 Multi-model mean of the percentage change in winter (DJF,
top), summer (JJA, middle), and annual (bottom) precipitation for
RCP8.5 (4 °C world) for Central Asia by 2071–2099 relative to
1951–1980. Hatched areas indicate uncertainty regions with two or
more out of five models disagreeing on the direction of change. The
multi-model analysis is based on GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES,
IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, NorESM1-M
C. Reyer et al.
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area in Pamir and Tien Shan is declining (Hijioka et al.
2014). In the upper catchments of the Amu Darya and Syr
Darya, most of the river’s annual flow can be withheld by
current reservoirs (Lehner et al. 2011). This high degree of
regulation (Lehner et al. 2011) serves as first-order
approximation of the potential impact on downstream
flows and implies a high risk of water scarcity in the future
once the peak in glacial melt runoff has been passed.
Consolidated climate change impact modeling studies on
when the peak in runoff occurs under different degrees of
warming are very rare and limited to small scale exemplary
areas, which preclude regional conclusions. For the Pamir
region (Pyanj and Vakhsh River basin), Kure et al. (2013)
project the turning point between the years 2060 and 2080
due to disappearing small glaciers, using a watershed
hydrology model based on multiple climate scenarios
ranging between 2 and 4 °C global warming.
The impact of snowfall changes on Central Asian rivers
is also very high, since the seasonal snowmelt is a key
source of water. At its maximum annual extent in late
winter, the snow cover in the Aral Sea basins extends over
major parts of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya basins and
contributes to a larger share of the mean annual runoff than
glaciers (Ososkova et al. 2000).
In a 2 °C world, projections show glacier volume losses
of about 50 % (31–66 %) for CA (Marzeion et al. 2012).
Besides this global study, there are only a few regional
studies available that project glacier shrinkage and related
changes in runoff in CA. Siegfried et al. (2012) performed
projections for the Syr Darya Basin under 2 °C warming by
2050 and projected a loss of mass of 31 ±4 % compared
to 2010. However, the signal varies greatly across the
different catchments (Siegfried et al. 2012). In the northern
Tien Shan, for example, the retreat is comparably fast with
a projected volume loss of about 56 % during the twenty-
first century (Sorg et al. 2014). Lutz et al. (2013) investi-
gated the model spread for projections of glacial retreat in
the Amu and Syr Darya region and projected a retreat in
glacial extent in the range of 54–65 % for the period
2007–2050.
In a 3 °C world, the glaciers of the region are projected
to lose about 57 % (37–71 %) of their current mass
(Marzeion et al. 2012). Radic et al. (2013) considered a
slightly different subregion of CA (including Tibet but
excluding Altai and Sayan) and inferred a 55 % loss for the
period 2006–2100. Giesen and Oerlemans (2013) obtained
comparable results for the same subregion. Bliss et al.
(2014) projected a 41 % decrease in average annual runoff,
from 136 Gt per year to 80 Gt per year, for the reference
periods 2003–2022 and 2081–2100 from all mountain
glaciers in CA. The study further indicates that the net
annual mass loss from glacial melt could peak in the
middle of the twenty-first century.
For a 4 °C world, Marzeion et al. (2012) projected that
glacier mass loss in CA could reach 67 % (50–78 %) by
the year 2100. For a slightly different subregion, Radic
et al. (2013) projected a mass loss of 75 %. In certain
catchments, glaciers may disappear completely before the
end of the twenty-first century, as in the northern Tien Shan
(Sorg et al. 2014).
The Northern hemisphere snow cover is expected to
decrease by 25 % under a high warming scenario (Collins
et al. 2013). Only a few studies address the future evolution
of snow cover with respect to a warming climate. A global
assessment showed that a smaller fraction of precipitation
is expected to fall as snow, as the snow line rises by about
150 m per 1 °C of warming (Christensen et al. 2007).
Through a reduction in the snow albedo feedback, the
reduced snow coverage is expected to affect both the
melting rate and the regional climate, thereby reinforcing
the warming trend in CA (Unger-Shayesteh et al. 2013).
River flow and floods
The large transboundary rivers, the Amu Darya and Syr
Darya, are the main freshwater suppliers for the arid and
semiarid areas of CA. The volume of water in these rivers
strongly depends on climatic conditions as well as water
storage in snow and ice in the headwater catchments,
located in the mountains of Tien Shan and Pamir-Alay
(Krysanova et al. 2010; Aus der Beek et al. 2011). As the
water supply (e.g., for irrigated agriculture) in the arid
downstream areas largely relies on the rivers, changes in
volume and seasonality of river runoff have major impli-
cation for the region’s water management (Unger-Shayes-
teh et al. 2013).
Climate change impacts on river runoff in CA are partly
unclear due to the uncertainty of future precipitation pat-
terns (Davletkeldiev et al. 2009; Krysanova et al. 2010;
Dukhovny and de Schutter 2011). Besides changes in
precipitation, increased glacial and snow melt rates in the
Pamir and Tian Shan Mountains will alter the hydrological
regimes of the major Central Asian rivers (Dukhovny and
de Schutter 2011). As observed in the last decades, higher
surface temperatures are leading to higher glacier melt
rates and significant glacier shrinkage; this trend is
expected to continue in the future (Sorg et al. 2014) and
may partly counterbalance decreasing precipitation and
increasing potential evaporation rates in the next decades
(Davletkeldiev et al. 2009).
By 2030, river runoff is, depending on the climate sce-
nario, expected either to increase slightly or not to change
beyond the natural runoff variability, even in the case of
potentially higher precipitation rates (Main Administration
of Hydrometeorology 2009). Model projections for 2055,
for a headwater catchment (Panj) of the Amu Darya River,
Climate change impacts in Central Asia and their implications for development
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revealed a seasonal shift in peak river flow rates from
summer to spring (Hagg et al. 2013). The study indicates
that, in the near future, the reduction in glacial area could
be partly compensated by enhanced melt rates in a warmer
atmosphere, leading to only slight changes in total annual
river flow. Under a 3.1 °C warming scenario, by 2055
runoff could increase in spring and early summer due to an
earlier and intensified snowmelt. Under these conditions,
the peak flow could shift from July to June, leading to a
reduction in discharge in July and August of approximately
25 %, which limits water availability in the summer (Hagg
et al. 2013).
A changing snow melt regime in the mountains could
further contribute to a shift of spring floods to earlier
periods. Siegfried et al. (2012) projected a shift in the peak
flows from summer to spring for CA based on a model set
up for 2050 for the Syr Darya which may lead to increased
water stress in the summer, particularly in unregulated
catchments.
By the end of the twenty-first century, runoff generation
rates in the mountainous areas of CA are likely to decline
substantially (Main Administration of Hydrometeorology
2009) leading to a distinct decrease in the water volume of
the Syr Darya (Novikov et al. 2009) and an even more
distinct decrease in the Amu Darya River due to its higher
share of glacier melt water (Davletkeldiev et al. 2009;
Main Administration of Hydrometeorology 2009). For
headwaters in the northern Tien Shan, summer runoff is
projected to decrease by 9–66 % (Sorg et al. 2014). In
particular, the summer floods of the Amu Darya, highly
important for irrigation, are expected to decline substan-
tially and a further reduction in surface water flow is pro-
jected to be caused by an increase in evaporation rates, due
to higher temperatures (Main Administration of Hydrom-
eteorology 2009). The Aral Sea is expected to be affected
by climate change indirectly through changes in river
contributions from the Amu Darya and Syr Darya as well
as directly through water evaporation and precipitation
changes (Cretaux et al. 2013).
Climate change is contributing to an increased risk
of floods and landslides in CA. The potential for gla-
cier lake outburst floods is expected to increase with
rising temperatures as well as with a rising number and
size of moraine-dammed lakes (Armstrong 2010;Bolch
et al. 2011; Marzeion et al. 2012). This is associated
with an increased risk for road transport networks
which are of high importance in the landlocked CA
countries, and for inhabited areas, such as the densely
populated and agriculturally productive Fergana Valley
region which is particularly exposed to these geohaz-
ards because glaciers surround the valley to the south,
the east and the north (Bernauer and Siegfried 2012;
Siegfried et al. 2012).
Agriculture and livestock
Due to the high irrigation rates in CA, agriculture is less
dependent on precipitation than on surface water avail-
ability (Sommer et al. 2013). Without accounting for
changes in irrigation water availability, Sommer et al.
(2013) concluded that wheat yields increase by an average
of 12 % (4–27 %) across all studied periods and scenarios
in the region. They stated that yield increases are a con-
sequence of higher winter and spring temperatures, less
frost damage and CO
2
fertilization (but see Rosenzweig
et al. 2013 for a discussion of the CO
2
-effect in crop
models). However, although Sommer et al. (2013) argued
that irrigation water demand does not necessarily increase
under the influence of climate change, other studies found
that irrigation demand in Uzbekistan could increase by up
to 16 % by 2080 while runoff decreases in the Syr Darya
River (World Bank 2013a). This would increase the com-
petition for water, impose risks on current agricultural
production systems and potentially reducing crop yields by
as much as 10–25 % by 2050 (World Bank 2013a).
CA, especially Kazakhstan, is likely to be a major future
hotspot of heat stress for wheat in a 3 °C world (Teixeira
et al. 2013). In Tajikistan, yields could drop by up to 30 %
by 2100 due to water stress in some parts of the country
(World Bank 2013b). In Uzbekistan, without implementing
adaptation measures and technological progress, yields for
almost all crops are expected to drop by as much as
20–50 % (in comparison to the 2000–2009 baseline) by
2050 with 2 °C warming due to heat and water stress
(Sutton et al. 2013a). The same study finds that with less
warming (1.4 °C), the declines are projected to be less
pronounced, with wheat yields expected to decline by up to
13 % with the exception of eastern parts of the country
where yield increases of up to 13 % are possible. More-
over, for cotton, yield decreases of 0–6 % are projected and
crops which might benefit are alfalfa and grasslands.
Generally, this study also finds that when including the
effects of reduced water availability, yield decreases are
much more pronounced. Irrigation water demand is also
likely to increase by up to 25 % by the middle of the
century, while water availability could decline by up to
30–40 % during the same period (Sutton et al. 2013a).
The direct effects of climate change on livestock are
likely to be negative. With changing precipitation patterns
and increasing temperatures, growth and regeneration of
pastures for livestock grazing could decline in the Tien
Shan and Alai valleys as well as in other parts of CA
(World Bank 2014c). Moreover, as water demand for
livestock increases with rising temperatures, this will put
pressure on existing water resources in water-scarce
regions (Thornton et al. 2009). The indirect effects of cli-
mate change on livestock may be positive in some cases,
C. Reyer et al.
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such as in Uzbekistan, where the productivity of alfalfa and
grasslands is expected to increase under warming condi-
tions (Sutton et al. 2013b).
Food security
Roughly five million people living in CA lack reliable
access to food (Peyrouse 2013). Food security is threatened
by climate change in CA because of climate change-in-
duced risks for agricultural production due to higher tem-
peratures, changing precipitation and river runoff (Meyers
et al. 2012), declining availability of suitable arable land
due to erosion after heavy rainfall events and storm
(Christmann et al. 2009), changes in the type and intensity
of pests and diseases (Meyers et al. 2012), competition for
the remaining water resources among agriculture, industry,
and human consumption (Hanjra and Qureshi 2010) and
exceedance of sensitivity thresholds of crops due to
increasing temperature extremes (Lioubimtseva and
Henebry 2012; Teixeira et al. 2013). Population growth
compounds the pressure induced by climate change on land
and water resources (Lutz 2010). Rural people as food
producers will be directly affected—but the urban popu-
lation will also be seriously affected because they cannot
self-provision. Rising food prices can have severe effects
on the CA population, as large percentages of household
incomes are spent on food and many countries in the region
are highly dependent on food imports. For example,
inhabitants of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan spend 80 % of
their household incomes on food (Peyrouse 2013). Tajik-
istan produces only 31 % of the nation’s food domestically.
This indicates that Central Asian countries are exposed to
fluctuations in international food prices (Meyers et al.
2012; Peyrouse 2013). The access to international markets,
however, is problematic due to complex regional trade
linkages such as the trade blockages, export/import bans,
and quotas (Chabot and Tondel 2011).
Energy systems
The Central Asian countries have very different energy
mixes and therefore varying climate change vulnerabilities
(see Table ESM.5). Hydropower infrastructure plays a key
role in CA not only for electricity generation but also for
river flow regulation and irrigation. Impacts of climate
change on river runoff and seasonality as well as higher
water demand for irrigation could affect hydropower gen-
eration and increase conflicting water demands for hydro-
power and irrigation (Weinthal 2006; Maas et al. 2010;
Bernauer and Siegfried 2012; Siegfried et al. 2012).
A global study projected energy production from
hydropower to increase by 2.29 TWh, or 2.58 % for CA in
2050 under 2.3 °C global warming, compared to the 2005
production level (Hamududu and Killingtveit 2012). The
study, however, does neither account for seasonality of
flows nor the variations induced by the specific river
basins. Other projections show that the potential of
installed small hydropower plants is projected to decrease
by around 13 % in Turkmenistan and 19 % in the Kyrgyz
Republic, and to increase by nearly 7 % in Kazakhstan by
the 2050 s under 2 °C warming (WorleyParsons 2012). It
is important to note that these projections do not account
for ongoing challenges of the energy systems such as aging
infrastructure and proper governance.
Human health
Extreme weather events pose a direct threat to the health of
the Central Asian population. Heat extremes can have
significant implications for human health—affecting rates
of mortality and morbidity associated with water- and
vector-borne diseases that flourish in warmer temperatures,
and the risk of heat stroke, heat exhaustion and other
conditions, particularly among children, the elderly, people
working outdoors and other vulnerable groups (Kjellstrom
and McMichael 2013; Smith et al. 2014). Tajikistan’s
Third National Communication under the UNFCCC, for
example, reports that a significant correlation has been
observed between temperatures above 37 °C and compli-
cations experienced by pregnant women during childbirth
(The Government of the Republic of Tajikistan 2014). Dust
storms have increased in number in the Central Asian
region, particularly in the basin of the depleted Aral Sea
(Novikov et al. 2009)—trend expected to continue as
aridity increases. Exposure to dust can cause or exacerbate
respiratory problems and asthma, as well as skin and eye
conditions (Griffin 2007).
Injury and fatality as a result of glacial outburst flooding
and mudslides in the mountains of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan
and Kyrgyzstan have been observed (Novikov et al. 2009)
and pose a clear mounting danger as glaciers retreat with
warming. In 1998, for example, the outburst of glacial
lakes feeding the Shakhimardan River caused a mudflow
that affected communities in both Kyrgyzstan and Uzbek-
istan and claimed the lives of more than 100 people
(UNESCAP 2012).
Contaminated water supplies resulting from flooding or
drier conditions can lead to outbreaks of water-borne dis-
eases such as cholera, typhoid, and dysentery, as well as
food-borne diseases such as salmonellosis. Novikov et al.
(2009) noted that salmonellosis could become a greater
problem in this region due to warmer temperatures and the
contamination of communal water sources.
Climate change could also alter the distribution of
vector-borne diseases including malaria, tick-borne
Climate change impacts in Central Asia and their implications for development
123
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encephalitis, and Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever,
although the links between climatic factors and the trans-
mission of these diseases are complex and remain uncer-
tain. Malaria has re-emerged since the early 1990s in CA
following its almost complete eradication by the end of the
1950s in the USSR (Lioubimtseva and Henebry 2009). In
Tajikistan, where it is once again endemic, this has
occurred in conjunction with an increase in mean temper-
atures (Ministry of Nature Protection 2003). While the
resurgence of malaria in the region is associated with a
number of non-climatic factors such as reduced use of
pesticides, historical observation indicates particularly
large numbers of locally transmitted cases in unusually
warm and wet years (1995–1998 and 2001–2003)
(Lioubimtseva and Henebry 2009). This suggests that
conditions favorable to the transmission of the disease
could become more frequent or widespread with climate
change.
Migration
In CA, migration plays an important role in the develop-
ment of the region, notably through remittances but also
because migrants often live in areas with poor infrastruc-
tures and access to services, increasing their vulnerability
to climate change. A large part of the region’s population
already lives in areas at high risk of increased water stress
due to climate change (Asian Development Bank 2012)
which could lead to increased migration. A further poten-
tial threat is an increase in landslides and avalanches,
especially in the Fergana Valley, which would impact on
regional livelihoods and food security (Siegfried et al.
2012), potentially leading to migration. Population growth
is another potential push factor contributing to both internal
and external migration as it puts pressure on resources and
by increasing the number of people in exposed areas. By
2050, a 77.2 % increase in the population living in hotspot
areas as identified by Asian Development Bank (2009,
2011) particularly affected by climate change is expected
for Tajikistan, 55.4 % in Uzbekistan, 41.3 % for Turk-
menistan and 31.3 % for the Kyrgyz Republic (with respect
to the values for the year 2000) (see Table ESM.6). Future
migration within CA is also likely to be determined by
political changes and security problems in addition to
environmental stresses and socioeconomic changes (Lutz
2010).
Internal displacements in CA amounted to about half of
the total migrant population in 2005 (Kniveton et al. 2008).
Among internal migrants, a substantial share moved for
environmental reasons, including mudslides and landslides,
floods, hazardous waste and desertification (Jaeger et al.
2009 in Asian Development Bank 2012). In the Kyrgyz
Republic, for example, between 1992 and 1997, at least
17,000 people had to migrate because of landslides, mud-
flows, floods and earthquakes (Sulaimanova 2004). In
general terms, climate change may contribute to an inten-
sification of internal migration movements in CA, as well
as from CA to the Russian Federation. This is expected to
be driven by worsening agricultural conditions in the
southern latitudes and improving conditions in the north,
but it is unclear how far this push from southern rural areas
and the pull into northern areas will translate into rural-to-
rural migration, and how far it will be associated with
rural-to-urban migration into cities in the north (Lutz
2010).
The evidence presented above highlights that population
trends and climate change have in the past been largely
treated in separation (Lutz 2010) and can often be coa-
lesced only qualitatively. While recent research is gradu-
ally assessing the risks of climate-induced migration (e.g.,
Reuveny 2007; Drabo and Mbaye 2011), the knowledge
base remains weak compared to other sectors. Because of
the broad range of push and pull factors, including envi-
ronmental change, that affect migration, projections how
climate change will affect migratory patterns are particu-
larly fraught with difficulties.
Implications for regional development
This paper shows that Central Asia will be severely
affected by climate change (Fig. 3, Table ESM.1) even
though in many sectors and areas further monitoring and
modeling is needed to improve our understanding of cli-
mate impacts. Increasing precipitation and glacial melt lead
to increased water availability and flood risk in Central
Asia in the coming decades which may affect transport
infrastructure. After mid-century and especially with
warming leading to a 4 °C world, unstable water avail-
ability poses a risk for agriculture and competing demands
for hydropower generation. This unstable water availability
and the generally uncertain date of passing peak runoff also
complicates investment decisions about new/upgraded
hydropower infrastructure in the region with risks for
maladaptation. Crop productivity is expected to be nega-
tively impacted by more frequent and intense heat extremes
and variability of supply/demand for water that poses
substantial risks to irrigated agricultural systems, although
substantial uncertainties remain. Rain-fed agriculture is
likely to be affected by uncertain rainfall patterns and
amounts, including where irrigation is important, and
coupled with rising maximum temperatures can lead to the
risk of heat stress and crop failure. Rural populations that
are especially dependent on agriculture for food are likely
to be increasingly vulnerable to any reductions in agricul-
tural yields and nutritional quality of their staple food
C. Reyer et al.
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grains, while urban populations are likely to be dispro-
portionately affected by food price rises and by climate-
related disasters. Unstable water availability is likely to
increase the challenge of competing requirements for
hydropower generation and agricultural production at times
of rising overall demand due to projected population and
economic growth in Central Asia.
The assessment of climate change impacts in different
sectors shows that impacts are likely to occur simultane-
ously and possibly interact with other climate change
impacts but also with the wider development challenges
present in the region, thus increasing the risks for devel-
opment. Hence, climate change can be seen as a risk
amplifier in the region but concrete studies of interacting
and cascading impacts and how these affect different
population groups are missing. However, such studies are
urgently needed to gain a clearer picture of the relationship
between climate change and development, as well as to
better plan and implement mitigation and adaptation
activities. Moreover, this paper shows how challenging it is
to link model-based future climate impacts which are often
presented in the scientific literature for the end-of-century,
and development trends which are mostly referring to the
current situation but likely to change dramatically in the
future. For example, institutional and technical
advancements in agricultural production, integrated trans-
boundary river management, fostering public and private
institutional capacity, improved governance of climate-
vulnerable resources and new employment opportunities
outside agriculture could partially counterbalance the
negative social impacts of environmental changes. A key
implication of climate change impacts for development in
the region is thus to integrate climate change into planning
of development projects to avoid isolating climate change
impacts from underlying, wider development issues.
Acknowledgments This research has been funded through the
World Bank Project ‘‘Turn Down the Heat: Confronting the New
Climate Normal,’’ and we are grateful to everybody involved in this
activity for making it a success. Moreover, we would like to thank
Wolfgang Cramer, Gabriele Go
¨tz and the guest editors for making
this Special Feature possible and for their valuable guidance
throughout this process.
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