Article

The Limits of Shrinkage: Conceptual Pitfalls and Alternatives in the Discussion of Urban Population Loss

December 2015
International Journal of Urban and Regional Research 40(2):n/a-n/a

Authors:

Leibniz Institute for Research on Society and Space

This essay reflects on the conceptual underpinnings of research on 'shrinking cities' over the last decade. It criticizes the definition of shrinkage in terms of urban population losses and argues that the state-of-the art research on 'shrinking cities' suffers from a misleading conceptualization of shrinkage which forces essentially different urban constellations into a universal model of 'shrinkage'. Four problems of this procrustean bed are discussed in detail: methodological pitfalls of threshold definitions of urban shrinkage; empirical contradictions; an absence of attention to scalar interrelations; and insufficient understanding of cities as historical processes. The essay ends with suggestions for a widened conceptualization of shrinkage and a new research agenda.

Does Urban Shrinkage Inhibit Residents' Welfare? From the Perspective of Urban–Rural Development in China

Article

Full-text available

Jan 2024
SOC INDIC RES

Eliminating poverty and improving welfare are the value pursuit of global development. Based on the panel data of prefecture-level cities in China from 2010 to 2020, the path relationship among urban shrinkage, urban–rural development, and residents' welfare growth is empirically tested. The heterogeneity of urban shrinkage affecting residents' welfare are further revealed from multidimensional perspectives such as public financial pressure, attention to ageing cause, provincial capital welfare spillover, land expansion, and geographic differences. The research shows that: (1) Urban shrinkage not only directly inhibit residents' welfare, but also curb the improvement of residents' welfare through widening urban–rural income gap and strengthening urban–rural dual economic structure. (2) The higher the public financial pressure and the attention to the aging cause, the more obvious the inhibitory effect of urban shrinkage on the welfare. The welfare spillover of provincial capital cities show a distinct characteristics of distance attenuation. (3) The inhibitory effect of urban shrinkage on welfare growth is stronger in cities with a higher degree of land expansion. The inhibitory effect of the widening urban–rural income gap on welfare growth presents a V-shaped trend with land expansion. (4) The overall impact of urban shrinkage, urban–rural income gap, and urban–rural dual economic structure on residents' welfare is negative, and the spatiotemporal heterogeneity is significant. The impact of urban shrinkage on residents' welfare in seven cities of Hebei and Shandong province is at the stage of turning from negative to positive during the study period.

Impacts of urban shrinkage on the built environment and its environmental sustainability: An analytical review

Article

Full-text available

Sep 2023
ENVIRON RES LETT

The proliferation of case studies of shrinking cities in recent years has stimulated intense debate on the impacts of urban shrinkage. However, assessing the impacts of urban shrinkage from a comprehensive perspective could be more present. Also, there is a lake of analytical review of historical studies about the impacts of urban shrinkage. The built environment has different characteristics under different urban development patterns involving infrastructure, services, and social, economic, and structural factors, which provides a best practice for exploring the impacts of urban shrinkage. This study synthesizes the literature surrounding urban shrinkage and built environment changes, identifying that urban shrinkage notably affects the different components of the built environment and gives rise to four related environmental and sustainability impacts involving urban landscapes and structures, ecological sustainability, socioeconomic vitality, and residents' perceptions. Furthermore, there are interactions between the environmental and sustainability impacts, involving trade-offs and synergies between residents' perceptions, ecological sustainability, and socioeconomic vitality. The study also summarized the mainstream methods for assessing the impacts of urban shrinkage and explored the effects of urban shrinkage management strategies on improving the built environment. Finally, a framework for future direction is presented for the final to integrate the theories of urban shrinkage, people and land relationship, and sustainable urban development to guide further exploration in the field. In summary, this study implies that restoring and upgrading the built environment can pave the way for a common goal for long-term sustainable development. The value of this study is to provide relevant researchers with the knowledge to understand the developing frontiers of urban shrinkage impacts on built environments.

Les organismes HLM à l'épreuve de la décroissance urbaine

Thesis

Dec 2021

Marie Mondain

Depuis la fin des années 2000, de nombreux organismes HLM implantés en dehors des territoires métropolitains connaissent des difficultés croissantes (augmentation du nombre de logements vacants, incertitude sur la production neuve, diminution des recettes, etc.). Dans le même temps, les fédérations HLM mettent en avant le rôle central des organismes HLM dans ces territoires pour accompagner les collectivités locales confrontées, elles aussi, à des difficultés urbaines (vacance, diminution des prix immobiliers, perte de population). Cet apparent paradoxe sert de fil directeur à cette thèse. La notion de la décroissance urbaine, envisagée comme processus local d’affaiblissement démographique, économique et social des villes, est mobilisée pour rendre compte du caractère systémique des difficultés rencontrées par les organismes HLM. Elle permet également d’analyser la spécificité de la participation des organismes HLM aux politiques urbaines dans ces contextes de décroissance. Trois caractéristiques de l’activité des organismes HLM sont explorées : le repositionnement du logement social sur des marchés immobiliers marqués par des processus de dévalorisation, la redéfinition des enjeux des politiques du logement en contexte de décroissance, le décalage avec les politiques sectorielles du logement social et leurs évolutions récentes. Pour cela, une double enquête a été menée. À l’échelle nationale, la mobilisation des fédérations HLM pour intégrer les enjeux de décroissance urbaine aux politiques du logement a été retracée dans les années 1980 puis dans les années 2010. À l’échelle locale, cinq villes ont été retenues pour observer l’évolution des activités des organismes HLM en contexte de décroissance et leur participation aux politiques urbaines : Le Havre, Alençon, Flers, Argentan et L’Aigle.

Effects of housing asset deflation on shrinking cities: A case of the Tokyo metropolitan area

Article

Full-text available

Jan 2023
CITIES

With shrinking cities becoming a global issue, declining housing demands due to declining population leads to a reduction in land prices. Housing asset value deflation occurs mainly in suburbs, which has an economic effect on elderly households. Although some issues have already been indicated, it is unclear whether the deflation of housing assets will have a significant impact on shrinking cities. We used 209 municipality bases to predict the decreasing value of housing assets in the Tokyo metropolitan area from 2019 to 2045. The deflation of housing asset value was estimated by considering the regional differences in population. We adopted a regression model for analysis. The value of housing asset deflation is projected to be approximately 94 trillion JPY by 2045. Although the degree of deflation differed by municipality, the deflation of housing asset value occurred in nearly all municipalities: Central Tokyo was an exception. Additionally, the deflation value in many suburban municipalities exceeded 10 million JPY per household. Thereafter, a case study analysis was conducted using the average household in the Tokyo metropolitan area. The study results imply that deflation of housing assets is unavoidable for households in suburbs, and it becomes new barriers to promoting compact cities.

Regional Urban Shrinkage Can Enhance Ecosystem Services—Evidence from China’s Rust Belt

Article

Full-text available

Aug 2024

Rapid urbanization is universally acknowledged to degrade ecosystem services, posing significant threats to human well-being. However, the effects of urban shrinkage, a global phenomenon and a counterpart to urbanization, on ecosystem services (ESs) remain unclear. This study focuses on China’s Rust Belt during the period from 2000 to 2020, constructing a comprehensive analytical framework based on long-term remote sensing data to reveal the temporal and spatial patterns of ESs and their associations with cities experiencing varying degrees of shrinkage. It employs a random forest (RF) model and a Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) model to measure and visualize the significance and thresholds of socioeconomic factors influencing changes in ESs. Our findings highlight the following: (1) Since 2010, the three provinces of Northeast China (TPNC) have begun to shrink comprehensively, with the degree of shrinkage intensifying over time. Resource-based cities have all experienced contraction. (2) Regional urban shrinkage has been found to enhance the overall provision capacity of ESs, with the most significant improvements in cities undergoing continuous shrinkage. (3) The impact of the same socioeconomic drivers varies across cities with different levels of shrinkage; increasing green-space ratios and investing more in public welfare have been identified as effective measures to enhance ESs. (4) Threshold analysis indicates that the stability of the tertiary sector’s proportion is critically important for enhancing ESs in cities undergoing intermittent shrinkage. An increase of 10% to 15% in this sector can allow continuously shrinking cities to balance urban development with ecological improvements. This research highlights the positive aspects of urban shrinkage, demonstrating its ability to enhance the provision capacity of ESs. It offers new insights into the protection and management of regional ecosystems and the urban transformation of the three eastern provinces.

Does transportation infrastructure accelerate factor outflow from shrinking cities? An evidence from China

Article

Feb 2023
TRANSPORT POLICY

Shrinking cities have received increasing attention in recent years given that the emergence of these cities has raised concerns about social equity, stability and sustainability. While extensive studies have attempted to measure the structural changes from a demographic perspective, it remains unclear to what extent the development of transportation infrastructure may have influenced the formation of shrinking cities, especially considering a multi-dimensional structural change. This study fills this research gap by conducting a comprehensive impact assessment of transportation infrastructure on the development of shrinking cities in China, considering demographic, economic, and social changes. Based on the New Economic Geography theory, a novel multi-dimensional shrinking index system was developed and the characteristics of spatial distributions of different types of shrinking cities were analyzed using the GIS analysis. In particular, the impacts of two primary surface transportation modes (roadway and high-speed rail) on shrinking cities’ performance were examined using a two-stage least-square model and a Difference-in-Difference model. The results confirm that both the development of roadway and high-speed rail systems have exacerbated the loss of critical factors, such as permanent population, in most shrinking cities, although the degree of impact varies by the different modes and dimensions of shrinkage. Specifically, transportation infrastructure mainly intensifies the losses of economic and social factors in shrinking cities, while the impact on demographic loss is negligible. The research findings suggest that future infrastructure investment and the strategies for urban governance should be implemented more selectively based on the different types of shrinking cities to achieve more sustainable and resilient urban development.

What is happening in shrinking medium-sized cities? A correlational analysis and a multiple linear regression model on the case of Spain

Article

Full-text available

Jan 2023
CITIES

In Europe, urban shrinkage has emerged as a prominent and concerning phenomenon. It is affecting an increasingly large number of cities, particularly small and medium-sized ones. Nonetheless, the dynamics and causes vary at national level. It is a recent process in Spain, although in the 21st century, and especially since the great recession, the number of shrinking medium-sized cities has expanded. This evolution is yet to be sufficiently addressed in the literature, and, in politics and the media, it has been overshadowed by rural depopulation. The aim of this study is to shed light on what is happening in shrinking medium-sized cities, based on the case of Spain. To do so, we combine multiple demographic and socioeconomic variables with depopulation. The correlational analysis reveals a link between depopulation and ageing due to the fall in the potential working population, while births and the population aged below 16 years decreases and that aged over 65 years increases. Additionally, depopulation is correlated with the loss of working population, although no significant correlations can be established between depopulation and the economic variables considered. Drawing on the relationships identified, we established a statistically significant multiple linear regression model. This article represents a novel contribution that may be of practical use for policymakers.

Renaissance of villages for the revitalization of marginal areas

Article

Full-text available

Dec 2022

There is now a clear disparity between major cities and villages located in marginal areas of Italy. Progressive depopulation of inland areas and urban polarization such as consolidated territorial dynamics are difficult to dampen and adapt to the new paradigms of sustainable territorial development, although they have been abruptly redirected by the Covid 19 pandemic. The instability created by this pandemic offers the opportunity to redefine new parameters of intervention and new scenarios for the development of territories in relation to the new needs of decentralization and physical distancing. The project “Renaissance of villages for the revitalization of marginal areas” aims to create the conditions to repopulate and rebalance shrinking territories by establishing new centers of attractiveness. This project envisages the active involvement of municipalities and local authorities with the aims at implementing the multi-sectoral analysis of the tangible and intangible values of territories. It intends to develop an interactive web dashboard to be provided to municipalities in order to create both a learning environment and a spatial decision support system for future local policy actions towards a sustainable participatory local development. In this way, it is proposed a functional method with a place-based approach to managing the existing territorial complexity through innovative models of territorial governance and policymaking, among them the effective implementation of participatory and multi-actor visions of territorial development. Specifically, this paper provides the Italian villages’ archetypes through the quantitative spatial cluster multivariate analysis, which is the basis for the construction of the dashboard. To cluster the villages, the main variables have been identified, assesses, and mapped. The results are fundamental in order to define the future scenarios for each archetype assessing the Key Performance indicators (KPIs).

Are Medium-Sized Cities in China Shrinking from 2010 to 2020? An Empirical Analysis with a Multi-Dimensional Model

Article

Full-text available

Nov 2024

Urban shrinkage has emerged as a worldwide concern, which is increasingly prevalent in developing countries like China, particularly in medium-sized cities (MSCs). Compared to large cities and counties, MSCs find themselves in a national policy blind spot and have been neglected both in policy and research. Previous studies, based on population changes, have shown that urban shrinkage in China is not severe. However, urban shrinkage is not just about population decline, and it has not been adequately discussed from a multi-dimensional perspective. This paper adopts a multi-dimensional model, considering population, economy, and space dimensions to analyze shrinkage patterns in 164 MSCs in China from 2010 to 2020. Findings reveal that 6.1% of MSCs experienced population shrinkage, and 24.4% faced shrinkage in economic or spatial dimensions. Shrinking MSCs are spatially distributed in the Northeast as well as in the areas surrounding large cities. Industrial restructuring, job losses, and healthcare disparities contribute to urban shrinkage, and the impact of aging will be further felt. As large cities consistently attract population and resources and digitization has dramatically affected population mobility, more MSCs will shrink in the future. This paper contributes to the understanding of shrinkage of MSCs among scholars and policymakers, urging a shift towards more balanced and digital urban governance.

Does Out-Migration Really Affect Forestry Ecological Security? An Empirical Case Study Based on Heilongjiang Province, China

Article

Full-text available

Aug 2024

In the new era, coordinating the relationship between population flow and forestry ecological security has become an important challenge. In this study, we take Heilongjiang Province in China as an example, and through the combination of macro data and micro in-depth interviews, we explore whether population mobility really affects the intrinsic mechanism of forestry ecological security from the perspective of population exodus from forest areas. Based on the DPSIR model, we constructed a forestry ecological security evaluation index system, used the TOPSIS multi-objective decision analysis method to quantify the forestry ecological security status from 2000 to 2022, and utilized the impulse response function of the VAR model to explore the dynamic response relationship between population outflow and forestry ecological security. The results of this study show that, firstly, the comprehensive index of forestry ecological security level in Heilongjiang Province exhibits a fluctuating upward trend from 2000 to 2022. Second, forestry ecological security has a lagged effect on population outflow, and population outflow has almost no effect on forestry ecological security at present. Third, while the population outflow of Luobei County reduces the interference of human activities on the natural environment, it also brings about the pressures of insufficient forestry ecological resource management and forestry personnel. The Dongfanghong Forestry Bureau has effectively improved the efficiency of ecological construction and ecological security through the introduction of digitalized and intelligent equipment, which has effectively compensated for the negative impact of population outflow on the reduction in ecological management personnel. These findings will help realize the coordinated development of population, economy and society, and ecology.

Does Reduced Space Result in Fewer Rights? Controlled Shrinking in the Urban Renewal of Genoa

Article

Full-text available

May 2024

Agim Kercuku

This article explores three examples of urban design initiatives in Genoa in an attempt to highlight the potential and possible contradictions that controlled shrinking projects pose for the future of contemporary cities. Genoa, a symbol of Italian shrinking cities, has been strongly defined over the years by post-industrialisation transformations and by long-standing conditions of urban shrinkage. Despite facing continuous shrinkage, local urban development policies have historically focused exclusively on urban growth and expansion. Only recently have some areas in Genoa started to adopt spatial planning experiences that actively pursue degrowth policies, aiming to reduce existing urban fabric and decrease urban density. These initiatives are adopted in specific areas affected by demographic decline, hydrogeological risks, pollution, or catastrophic events. These spatial strategies justify their existence by invoking concepts like smart shrinkage and degrowth, promising improvements in both environmental and social conditions. However, this article notes how these concepts in Genoa are not aligned with the actual social and environmental challenges that these considerations and positions pose. In fact, the urban renewal initiatives introduced by institutions, in reality, lean towards a strategy of shrinkage and demolition of residential complexes, transportation infrastructure, and productive spaces, with diverse and conflicting results. The observed controlled shrinking projects neglect the synthesis of the territory as a palimpsest, ignore new ecological sensitivities, and lack awareness of the social implications associated with the concepts of smart shrinkage and degrowth. Instead, the three instances introduce a spatial project that still adheres to the underlying principles of growth and exploitation, presenting a shrinkage of the existing urban fabric that is mere illusion. It involves clearing out the deteriorated spaces only to fill them with capitalist rhetoric and models that, instead of creating space, undermine fundamental rights. Nonetheless, a closer examination of these three missed opportunities sheds light on the necessary knowledge, actions, and design approaches for a city to navigate urban shrinkage adeptly. This exploration also reveals the potential for the city to transform into a framework and platform, inspiring and guiding new urban planning paradigms for sustainable development.

Urban Shrinkage Research: A Systematic Literature Review</b

Article

Mar 2024

Urban shrinkage has emerged as a global phenomenon in recent decades, attracting increasing attention from scholars since the early 2000s, with broader geographical scope and research topics. However, there is a lack of systematic reviews encompassing the evolution of discourse, shifting focus, and national context comparisons. This research analyzed 98 articles directly related to urban shrinkage studies from both qualitative and quantitative perspectives to provide a comprehensive overview of current research. The results show that research on shrinking cities emerged in the 2000s, and it has received worldwide attention, with significant studies conducted in the United States, Germany, Japan, and China. Most of the studies have been conducted at the city level. The most prevalent topics are the causes of urban shrinkage and response policies. The perception of urban shrinkage shows a change from unacceptance to acceptance, and the coping strategies have been adjusted accordingly. There are two main planning paradigms: growth-oriented planning and shrinkage-adapted planning. While many scholars have advocated for approaches like “smart shrinkage” and “right-sizing,” some studies have questioned their feasibility and effectiveness. Among the specific coping strategies, economic restructuring and addressing vacancy issues are the focus of attention. Additionally, the discourse and focus of research on shrinking cities vary from country to country, and there are also differences in response policies and involved actors. Furthermore, this study identified blind spots in current research for future exploration.

Modeling Land Use Transformations and Flood Hazard on Ibaraki’s Coastal in 2030: A Scenario-Based Approach Amid Population Fluctuations

Article

Full-text available

Mar 2024

Coastal areas, influenced by human activity and natural factors, face major environmental shifts, including climate-induced flood risks. This highlights the importance of forecasting coastal land use for effective flood defense and ecological conservation. Japan’s distinct demographic path necessitates flexible strategies for managing its urban development. The study examines the Ibaraki Coastal region to analyze the impacts of land-use changes in 2030, predicting and evaluating future floods from intensified high tides and waves in scenario-based forecasts. The future roughness map is derived from projected land-use changes, and we utilize this information in DioVISTA 3.5.0 software to simulate flood scenarios. Finally, we analyzed the overlap between simulated floods and each land-use category. The results indicate since 2020, built-up areas have increased by 52.37 sq. km (39%). In scenarios of constant or shrinking urban areas, grassland increased by 28.54 sq. km (42%), and urban land cover decreased by 7.47 sq. km (5.6%) over ten years. Our research examines two separate peaks in water levels associated with urban flooding. Using 2030 land use maps and a peak height of 4 m, which is the lower limit of the maximum run-up height due to storm surge expected in the study area, 4.71 sq. km of residential areas flooded in the urban growth scenario, compared to 4.01 sq. km in the stagnant scenario and 3.96 sq. km in the shrinkage scenario. With the upper limit of 7.2 m, which is the extreme case in most of the study area, these areas increased to 49.91 sq. km, 42.52 sq. km, and 42.31 sq. km, respectively. The simulation highlights future flood-prone urban areas for each scenario, guiding targeted flood prevention efforts.

Modeling Land Use Transformations and Flood Hazard on Ibaraki’s Coastal in 2030: A Scenario-Based Approach Amid Population Fluctuations

Article

Full-text available

Mar 2024

Post-Soviet Trajectories of Russian Shrinking Cities

Article

Nov 2023

The objective of the article is to assess the scale and dynamics of shrinkage of cities in Russia and its regions in the post-Soviet period. Urban shrinkage analysis, based on the average annual index of population decrease according to population censuses, showed that these processes (at least during one of the intercensal periods) in total covered more than half of Russian cities. At the same time, in less than a third of centers, the average annual population decrease over the entire period exceeded 1%. In 1989–2002, the number of shrinking cities was quite small (less than a quarter), and during subsequent intercensal periods, it increased significantly, amounting to more than a third of all cities in the country by 2021. Analysis of the spatial distribution of urban shrinkage showed that these processes occurred at different stages, both at the expense of the resource cities in the northern and eastern territories of the country, and centers of old-developed regions, primarily the Non-Chernozem zone. Most shrinking cities are represented by small centers with populations of less than 50 000 people. With the general negative nature of population dynamics, there is a multidirectionality and variability of shrinkage trends in Russian cities. The specific features of shrinkage during each of the three intercensal periods and alternating phases of depopulation formed the basis for distinguishing six types of urban shrinkage trajectories.

Why small towns are shrinking: The spatial heterogeneity of small towns shrinkage and the impact of it from the perspective of rural-urban interaction in China

Article

Full-text available

Nov 2023
PLOS ONE

Small towns play a crucial role in bridging urban and rural territory systems. While numerous studies have identified the characteristics and causes of small town shrinkage (STS), there remains an unexplored perspective on the reasons for their shrinkage from the perspective of the rural-urban relationship. To address this research gap, we investigated the relationship between STS and rural-urban interaction (RUI) in China. We hypothesized that a negative relationship existed between the degree of STS and the intensity of RUI. Using geo-statistical methods, such as the multi-scale geographical weighted regression (MGWR) model, the hypothesis was tested using Henan Province in China as a case study. The results indicated that the phenomenon of STS was observed extensively across the study region, with a 59% geographical overlap between the high-value area of STS and the low-value area of urban-rural interaction. Three distinct sub-types of STS regions were identified: shrinking regions along geographical borders, shrinking regions adjacent to metropolitan areas, and shrinking regions in ecologically fragile areas. The factors influencing STS demonstrated spatial heterogeneity and multi-scale characteristics. The findings will improve our understanding of urban shrinkage from a multi-level perspective and offer policy makers guidance for the sustainable development of small towns based on local conditions.

WASTELANDS. Recycling urban spaces for the shrinking city

Article

Full-text available

Sep 2023

Shrinkage processes are multidimensional phenomena affecting city sectors or regions that are experiencing a decline in their economic and social foundations and struggle in finding sound postindustrial revitalisation strategies. The symptoms of such structural crisis are population loss and ageing, economic recession, employment decline and social problems. The repeated international crises that followed the global economic, productive and cultural changes since the 1980s have resulted in the formation of neglected, underused and decay urban voids. The current abandonment scenario and related transformation opportunities are extremely complex and include a wide variety of typologically different wastelands. They comprise shrinking urban and peripheral fabrics, specific empty or obsolete infrastructure, derelict sites, and voids of with heritage value no longer animated by the socio-cultural “regime” that originated them. Wastelands are not unusual in Western society but their pervasiveness is certainly unprecedented given the general socioeconomic crises and dynamics. Abandonment is a challenging and constant process of space production to be filled with new functions by civil society. The re-cycle is even more challenging because the disposal of significant assets has occurred within a limited time frame compared to the post-industrial wastelands. Wastelands constitute a resource with relevant strategic opportunities for addressing a variety of issues – i.e., reducing land consumption, providing urban maintenance and rehabilitation, and increasing the supply of public open spaces, environmental quality characteristics, community standards and services. Last but not least, wastelands may provide new habitable and accessible spaces in contrast to various types of emergencies or polycrises the society is facing – i.e. climate, pandemics, territorial imbalances, ecological and energy resources impoverishment – thus addressing the transition scenario.

The Eternal Struggle for the City: In Search of an Alternative Framework for Citizen Participation in Urban Regeneration Projects in Shrinking Cities

Article

Full-text available

Aug 2023

The relevance of citizen participation in regeneration projects, particularly in shrinking cities, is widely acknowledged, and this topic has received a great deal of policy and academic attention. Although the many advantages of citizen participation in regeneration projects have been identified, its current forms have also received considerable criticism. In short, this criticism boils down to the conclusion that the ideal of citizen participation is not put into practice. This paper considers why this is the case, asking whether current participatory practices enable citizens to exercise influence as political actors in urban regeneration projects. In this paper, we examine this question based on Mouffe’s conception of the political, coupled with findings from our empirical research conducted in Heerlen North, The Netherlands. We conducted qualitative research on urban regeneration in the shrinking old industrial city of Heerlen. The findings reveal two distinct perspectives on citizen participation. Professionals see the existing context of citizen participation as a reasonable and practical but, in some respects, insufficient practice. Citizens’ views on participation are organized around feelings of anger, shame, and fear and are grounded in experiences of a lack of recognition. These experiences limit citizens’ abilities to exert true influence on regeneration projects. We conclude that efforts to regenerate shrinking cities should strive to recognize these experiences so as to create conditions that generate respect and esteem and, as such, enable urban social justice.

Knowledge Mapping of Urban Shrinkage Studies based on Published Journal Papers

Conference Paper

Jan 2022

Revisiting the impact of urban shrinkage on residential segregation in European cities

Article

Full-text available

Mar 2023

David Huntington

A nascent body of scholarship suggests that the depopulation of urban areas may catalyse residential segregation between different population groups and spatial concentrations of vulnerable groups. Based on a systematic literature review, this article summarises peer-reviewed articles and case studies on the role of urban shrinkage in shaping residential segregation in the context of European cities, and highlights methodological shortcomings and empirical knowledge gaps, thereby contributing to our understanding of the mechanisms through which population dynamics influence urban inequalities and their relevance for planning and policy. In sum, studies verifying the frequently assumed positive relationship between urban population loss and widening segregation remain few and far between. Moreover, mismatches between spatial and temporal scales, in addition to the indicators and metrics used in past studies, have hampered not only comparisons of how these dynamics play out in different contexts, but also the integration of spatial justice perspectives into urban planning.

Assessment of interactions between influencing factors on city shrinkage based on geographical detector: A case study in Kitakyushu, Japan

Article

Sep 2022
CITIES

The phenomenon of urban shrinkage is a growing global issue. Although urban shrinkage in Japan was mostly contributed to the aging population and low fertility, a comprehensive understanding of the influence mechanisms of shrinking cities in Japan is still challenging. Thus, a case study in Kitakyushu, Japan, one of Japan's largest shrinking cities, was conducted for quantitative analysis of the characteristics of urban shrinkage. Moreover, a geographical detector method was applied to reveal the interactive correlation between the influencing factors on urban shrinkage. This study investigated the spatial patterns of urban shrinkage in a complex context and explored the individual and interactive influences of urban demographic and morphological factors. We found that the duration of residents, underage population ratio, and aging population ratio were mostly correlated with population changes. The interactions between urban demographic and morphological factors were manifested as bivariate enhanced or nonlinear enhanced, which informed different types of people may have preferences for the urban morphology in the process of relocation. The findings provide useful information for understanding urban shrinkage at the local scale and help urban planners and policy-makers develop effective sustainable urban planning forms.

Spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of carbon emissions and their drivers in shrinking cities in China: Empirical evidence based on the NPP/VIIRS nighttime lighting index

Article

Nov 2022
J ENVIRON MANAGE

Shrinking cities are a category of cities characterized by population loss, and the environmental problems of these cities are often neglected. Using panel data from 2012 to 2019, this paper investigates the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of carbon emissions in shrinking cities in China and the driving factors. The results find that: (1) From 2012 to 2019, carbon emissions tend to increase in shrinking cities and decrease in non-shrinking cities. Due to earlier industrial development and ecological neglect, shrinking cities in Northeast China have higher carbon emissions than other regions. (2) Population size, industrial structure and public services promote the growth of carbon emissions in shrinking cities. The influence of living environment on carbon emissions in shrinking cities is not significant. There is an environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) relationship between economic level and carbon emission. (3) In shrinking cities, the increase in commuting time and distance due to spatial expansion promotes the growth of carbon emissions. Foreign investment decreases with the loss of population, which reduces carbon emissions. Technological progress gradually declines as investment in science and technology decreases, which makes carbon emissions grow. This paper clarifies the driving factors of carbon emissions in shrinking cities in China, and therefore, the findings of this paper have important reference value for the formulation of carbon reduction policies in shrinking cities in developing countries.

Giving birth in dying towns

Chapter

Full-text available

May 2022

Anastasia Novkunskaya

The transformation of local labor markets in shrinking cities in Russia from 2010 to 2017

Chapter

Full-text available

May 2022

Evgenii Antonov

Urban shrinkage in Russia

Chapter

Full-text available

May 2022

Spatiotemporal evolution and driving mechanism of regional shrinkage at the county scale: The three provinces in northeastern China

Article

Full-text available

Aug 2022
PLOS ONE

The three northeast provinces are typical areas of regional shrinkage in China. A scientific understanding of their shrinkage and driving mechanism is conducive to the transformation and development of traditional industrial bases in China. This study analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution and driving mechanism of regional shrinkage at the county scale in the three provinces. The main findings are as follows: (1) 40.86% of counties in the three provinces shrank, forming three concentrated shrinking regions. However, comprehensively shrinking regions were narrowed and lessened with the introduction of the Northeast Area Revitalization Plan. (2) The population-related shrinking regions accounted for more than 90% and continued to expand. Such shrinkage was higher in the north than in the south. The degree of economy-related shrinkage was the most serious, and the hotspots were mainly concentrated in Liaoning Province. The scope of space-related shrinkage was most minor, and such shrinkage was relatively mild. (3) When it came to influencing factors, the shrinkage index was positively correlated with the proportion of the secondary industry, the output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, the number of industrial enterprises above the designated size, fiscal expenditure, and the balance of resident deposits, and negatively correlated with the altitude, the proportion of the tertiary industry, and population aging. Geographically weighted regression (GWR) and ordinary least squares (OLS) produced similar regression results. The spatial pattern of influencing factors was consistent with the hotspot areas of population-related shrinkage or economy-related shrinkage, with significant spatial differences.

Long-Term Development Perspectives in the Slow Crisis of Shrinkage: Strategies of Coping and Exiting

Article

Full-text available

Aug 2022

Ruiying Liu

As a slow crisis, shrinkage is a situation where if actions are not taken to change things, a downward spiral or a long-term decline could happen. The complex, long-term nature of this crisis underlines the importance and potential of strategic approach. However, the conceptualisation of development strategy remains abstract, attributive, or focused on sectorial policies, lacking a view of their roles in the overall development. Against this context, this research investigates (1) how cities that have acknowledged shrinkage strategically organise degrowth, non-growth, and growth-promoting instruments in dealing with shrinkage, (2) what long-term development perspectives emerge out of their policies, and (3) what factors in the local context constrain their strategies. The empirical basis is a cross-national comparative case study between Den Helder and Zwickau, a Dutch and German midsize city, with a cross-sectorial view and a focus on the long-term aspects to reveal the conceptual structures of their strategies. This approach captures how and explains why the cities, as regional centres with similar attitudes towards shrinkage and comparable economic levels, adopt many similar policies but lean towards contrasting long-term perspectives—one strives to exit the crisis, the other has routinised coping with shrinkage and lacks the vision of a different future. Their differences stimulate reflection on the context and parameters for revitalisation, and their shared challenges underlines the need for theory development based on situated policymaking challenges and a more strategic approach in the development of shrinking cities.

Shrinking cities in China: A long-term metropolitan perspective

Article

Mar 2025
CITIES

Mapping the housing stock structure of single-industry towns for the purpose of urban shrinkage analysis

Article

Feb 2025

The article discusses the methodological aspects of producing maps showing changes in the structure of the residential housing as a result of urban shrinkage. By integrating remote sensing data, statistical information, and field survey data, a comprehensive insight into the dynamics of the residential housing was achieved. The algorithmic framework was tested in three successive stages in three single-industry cities such as Anzhero-Sudzhensk, Novoshakhtinsk, and Kimovsk—former coal mining centers. By examining many data sources, patterns of urban shrinkage were revealed. The resulting cartographic representations serve as a basis for analyzing the patterns of urban shrinkage and the spatial distribution of abandoned buildings, providing an insight into the dynamics of demolished and remaining residential areas. The studied dynamics of urban regions confirm the presence of urban shrinkage features in post-Soviet Russia, where former mining towns have lost their industrial specialization.

Conceptualizing the nexus between spatiotemporal shrinkage patterns of natural cities and driving mechanisms: Insights into urban shrinkage in Northeast China

Article

Sep 2024
CITIES

The limits of right-sizing: analyzing social housing strategies in French shrinking cities

Article

Jun 2024

Nonlinear mechanisms of CO2 emissions in growing and shrinking cities: An empirical study on integrated effects of aging and industrial structure in Japan

Article

May 2024
J CLEAN PROD

Land Cover Patterns of Urban Lots and Their Contribution to Ecological Functions

Article

Full-text available

Apr 2024

The green infrastructure of urban lots performs socio-ecological functions and provides several ecosystem services (ESs) in urban environments. By assessing the land cover patterns of such sites, one can deduce ecological functions and potential ESs. We represented the various land cover combinations of lots by mapping and classifying the vegetation quality of 2828 lots in the city of Belo Horizonte, Southeast Brazil. We performed cluster analysis of land cover with weighting according to ecological functions, potential for ES provision, and performance. Most lots (1024, 36.21%) were in the moderate vegetation quality class (trees/native vegetation between 25% and 50% or >50% herbaceous-shrubby vegetation), which included the largest plot of 383,300 m2 and a median plot size of 403 m2. A total of 244 (8.63%) lots were in the highest vegetation quality class (trees/native vegetation between >50% and 100%). The lots included diverse vegetation cover combinations of up to ten land cover types, with two dominant types: herbaceous-shrubby vegetation and tree clumps. Among the four land cover patterns obtained, those covered by tree clusters (1193 lots; 42.18%) had the highest ecological performance and the greatest potential for regulating and supporting ESs. This cluster had the highest average land cover of tree clumps (49%) and the highest averages for native vegetation formations (2–6%). Our study showed a variety of land cover patterns and an expressive percentage of lots with capabilities to provide ecological functions and ESs, which can support urban sustainability policies that have yet to be addressed.

Does urban shrinkage equate to a decline in development levels? – Urban development measurement and influencing factors analysis

Article

Mar 2024
ENVIRON IMPACT ASSES

Разнообразие в условиях депопуляции: территориальное и стратегическое планирование в сжимающихся городах Республики Коми

Article

Jun 2023

После распада СССР города Республики Коми столкнулись с депопуляцией, особенно на севере региона, где экономика тесно связана с добывающей промышленностью. В этой статье мы исследуем стратегии развития, которые предпринимают органы местного самоуправления сжимающихся городов Республики Коми, чтобы ответить на проблему сжатия. Мы провели количественный анализ среднегодового темпа прироста численности населения всех городов региона и обнаружили 9 постоянно сжимающихся городов (1989–2021) и 1 эпизодически сжимающийся город (2010–2021). Эмпирически часть работы основана на анализе 16 официальных документов (8 стратегий социально-экономического развития и 8 генеральных планов). Результаты показали определенную гетерогенность в вопросах планирования в условиях потери населения. Несмотря на централизацию и низкую самостоятельность местного самоуправления в России, города Республики Коми прибегают к разным моделям адаптации. Также мы отмечаем распространенную конфликтность документов стратегического планирования и пространственного планирования в части прогнозов численности населения и развития жилищного сектора. Наш анализ показал, что органы местного самоуправления чаще признают депопуляцию в стратегиях социально-экономического развития, нежели в генеральных планах. Таким образом, можно говорить не об игнорировании сжатия в целом, а об отрицании этого явления преимущественно в рамках территориального планирования.

Overcoming the limitations to co-production in shrinking cities: insights from Latvia, France, and the Netherlands

Article

May 2023
EUR PLAN STUD

Co-production often appears as a virtue in academic research and planning practice, particularly in shrinking cities, which struggle to develop effective policies and provide sufficient level of public services. In this paper, we argue that the urban shrinkage context imposes significant limitations to co-production practices, that we urge should not be neglected. Drawing on three contrasting projects in Riga (Latvia), Nevers (France), and Heerlen (the Netherlands), we explore existing limitations and consider possibilities to overcome them. The analyses show that the efficacy of co-production practices is impaired due to a reduced level of trust towards public authorities; selective outmigration; weakened social capital; and political prioritizing of private sector interests over civil society. To overcome these, we discuss the role of several tools, namely mediating actors, independent funding, civic empowerment, and the willingness of public authorities to regenerate power relations.

When urban shrinkage goes South. Morocco's extreme management of declining mining towns between paternalism, entrepreneurialism and abandonment

Article

Oct 2023
POLIT GEOGR

Shrinking cities in post-Soviet Russia

Article

Full-text available

Jan 2023

The paper is aimed at assessing scale and trends of urban shrinkage in post-Soviet Russia both at national level and by its major regions. Based on the calculation of average annual index of population loss according to population censuses (1989–2021) data, almost half of Russian cities in total have been shrinking for at least one of three intercensal periods. At the same time, in one of three centers the average annual depopulation exceeded 1% at the end of the entire period. In 1989–2002, the number of shrinking cities was not significant (less than a quarter in total), while increasing dramatically in subsequent inter-census periods to over than 1/3 of all urban settlements of the country by 2021. Study of spatial spreading of urban shrinkage phenomenon unveiled that its progress at different stages was mainly contributed either by resource-based cities of the northern and eastern parts of the country, or by urban settlements in old-developed regions, primarily the Non-Chernozyom areas. Absolute majority of all shrinking cities (87%) are minor units with a population under 50,000 inhabitants. Taking into account the general unfavourability of depopulation and the instability and variability of trends, six types of urban shrinkage trajectories with various combinations and alternations of depopulation phases were identified based on the sequence of depopulation phases within each of the three intercensal periods.

The distribution characteristics and driving mechanism of vacant land in Chengdu, China: A perspective of urban shrinkage and expansion

Article

Sep 2023
LAND USE POLICY

Identifying and quantizing the non-linear correlates of city shrinkage in Japan

Article

Jun 2023
CITIES

Understanding Urban Growth and Shrinkage From a Multiscale Perspective: Case Study of Jilin Province, China

Article

Jun 2023

Spatial clustering-based method for Italian marginal areas toward the sustainable regeneration: Verso la rigenerazione urbana sostenibile. Applicazione di un metodo di clusterizzazione spaziale per le aree marginali italiane

Article

Jan 2023

In Italy, there is a clear disparity between cities and villages located in marginal areas. The progressive depopulation of inland areas and the urban polarization represent consolidated dynamics difficult to adapt to the new paradigm of sustainable development. The post-Covid-19 pandemic scenario offers the opportunity to redefine new parameters of intervention and new visions for the regeneration of villages in accord with the new challenges of decentralization and distancing. The project «Renaissance of villages for the revitalization of marginal areas» (2021) aims to create the conditions to repopulate and rebalance shrinking territories by establishing new centres of attractiveness. This project envisages the active involvement of municipalities to implement multi-sectoral analysis and spatial assessment approaches in planning processes. It intends to develop an interactive web dashboard for local authorities and spatial planners to create both a learning environment and a participative spatial decision support system for future local policy actions toward sustainable local development. This study presents the project’s preliminary phase which aims to create the general framework of the web dashboard. A reconstruction of the village definition and the spatial selection of villages throughout Italy are presented as innovative aspects since the absence of an agreed definition of the village in the national and international level documents. Moreover, this study provides a quantitative spatial multivariate analysis cluster that analyzes, and groups Italian territories based on socioeconomic dynamics. The result of this analysis allows us to divide the territory into archetypes and to structure a framework that supports the definition of future scenarios for the regeneration of small urban areas considering the diversified needs and potential of the villages belonging to specific archetypes analyzed in the study.

Rethinking population shrinkage in the Australian context: a new research agenda

Article

Mar 2023

Whilst the study on the impact of shrinkage is well documented in North America and Europe, the effects of population-driven shrinkage on rural and regional communities in Australia is comparatively under-researched. This is despite existing literature on the volatility of population change in regional and rural Australia. Therefore, there is cause for establishing a typology of shrinkage in the Australian context, unpacking the different and complex economic, social and environmental causes and consequences, and therefore impacts, and establishing a framework for ongoing research. In this paper, we set out the rationale for this typology, indicating how population drivers are not only extensive, but further complicated by the as-yet-unknown impacts of COVID-19 and teleworking. Regarding policy solutions, we suggest that while mindsets are increasingly changing from a need to reverse population trends to, instead, embracing opportunities and alternative futures for many regional and rural Australian towns, we need to first establish a typology of population shrinkage that is reflective of the Australian context to ensure policy responses are locally appropriate. • Practitioner pointers • - Mindsets around planning policies on the impacts of population-driven shrinkage are beginning to shift towards understanding the specific socio-economic circumstances of the localised area and adopting appropriate policy instruments accordingly. • - To support this nascent shift, establishing a typology of shrinkage that is reflective of the Australian context is key.

Natural resource dependence and urban shrinkage: The role of human capital accumulation

Article

Mar 2023
RESOUR POLICY

Construction et trajectoire scientifiques de la notion allemande de Stadtschrumpfung (décroissance urbaine)

Chapter

Full-text available

Feb 2018

Roth Hélène

This article examines the German concept of Stadtschrumpfung (urban shrinkage), how it was scientifically constructed, its trajectory and international dissemination. It is based on a literature search and an original bibliometric method involving a wide-ranging trilingual corpus (German, English, French). First, the notion of the “ville décroissante“ (‘shrinking city’), an expression initially borrowed from German then adapted from English, will be placed on the spectrum of terms that are used to designate and qualify so-called weak cities and which reveal diverse theoretical and territorial issues. The recent international circulation of this notion raises the question of conceptual transfer and empowerment, the modes and means of which need to be studied. The reflux that the concept of the “shrinking city” is now undergoing in Germany, its country of origin, is due to new processes and challenges of fragile cities and the emergence of other concepts in German urban and regional studies.

Construction et trajectoire scientifiques de la notion allemande de Stadtschrumpfung (décroissance urbaine)

Book

Jan 2018

Hélène Roth

The effects of the local and regional conditions and inequalities on urban shrinkage: a multilevel analysis focusing on local population decline

Article

Jan 2023

Urban shrinkage is becoming a worldwide issue. However, empirical investigation still lacks an understanding of the spatial extent of the factors that drive local population decline, a prevalent aspect of urban shrinkage. Empirical evidence on multilevel factors relating to population decline is particularly scarce. We investigated the influences by analyzing economic, social, physical, and policy conditions at the local and regional levels. Regional conditions, as well as local conditions, are also related to the decline of the local population. The effect goes beyond economic and demographic conditions; conditions such as the local infrastructure level and development policy also significantly influence.

The Regional Disparity of Urban Spatial Expansion Is Greater than That of Urban Socioeconomic Expansion in China: A New Perspective from Nighttime Light Remotely Sensed Data and Urban Land Datasets

Article

Full-text available

Sep 2022

The regional disparity of urban expansion varies significantly in China’s different regions, hindering sustainable socioeconomic development. However, most studies to date have focused on a single aspect of urban expansion, e.g., urban spatial expansion (USS) disparity. This study attempts to define urban expansion from USS and urban socioeconomic expansion (USE) based on nighttime light remotely sensed (NTL) data and urban land datasets. Then, taking China’s 241 prefecture-level cities within different provinces as experimental subjects, the Dagum Gini (DG) coefficient and stochastic convergence test are employed to assess the disparity of urban expansion from two different dimensions. The results show that, on the national scale, the regional disparity of USS is always greater than that of USE and has a converging trend. Additionally, regional disparity is the main factor causing the difference between USS and USE, with average contribution rates of 55% and 45%, respectively. The average difference between USS and USE in the eastern region (ER) is greater than 10%, while it is the lowest in the northeastern region (NER) and shows a significant expansion trend in performance convergence with a regression coefficient of 0.0022, followed by the central (CR), eastern, and western (WR) regions. Through the panel unit root test, we found that urban expansion in China in terms of USS and USE has internal random convergence in certain regions under the premise of global random divergence, and there may be differentiation and formation of one or more convergence clubs in the future. Using this novel perspective to define urban expansion, this study quantifies the contributions of USS and USE to regional disparity and provides a scientific basis for governments to implement appropriate approaches to sustainable urban development in different regions.

Postsocialist shrinking cities in a triple geopolitical and socioeconomic context

Chapter

Full-text available

May 2022

Shrinkage under growth

Chapter

Full-text available

May 2022

Zhe Gao

Strengthening the evidence base for regeneration strategies: the European statistic as a basis for creating territorial knowledge of demographic change

Chapter

Full-text available

Jan 2012

Manuel Wolff

Varieties of Shrinkage in European Cities

Article

Full-text available

Jun 2013
EUR URBAN REG STUD

The issue of urban shrinkage has become the new ‘normal’ across Europe: a large number of urban areas find themselves amongst the cities losing population. According to recent studies, almost 42 per cent of all large European cities are currently shrinking. In eastern Europe, shrinking cities have formed the overwhelming majority – here, three out of four cities report a decrease in population. Shrinkage has proved to be a very diverse and complex phenomenon. In our understanding, a considerable and constant loss of population by an urban area classifies it as a shrinking city. So, while the indicator of shrinkage used here is rather simple, the nature of the process and its causes and consequences for the affected urban areas are multifaceted and need to be explained and understood in further detail. Set against this background, the article presents, first, urban shrinkage as both spatially and temporally uneven. Second, this article shows that the causes of urban shrinkage are as varied as they are numerous. We explore the ‘pluralist world of urban shrinkage’ in the European Union and beyond. The article provides an original process model of urban shrinkage, bringing together its causes, impacts and dynamics, and setting them in the context of locally based urban trajectories. The main argument of this arrticle is that there is no ‘grand explanatory heuristics’ of shrinkage; a ‘one-size-fits-all’ explanatory approach to shrinkage cannot deliver. To progress and remain relevant, one ought to move away from outcome-orientated towards process-orientated research on urban shrinkage.

Demographic Change and Local Development: Shrinkage, Regeneration and Social Dynamics

Article

Full-text available

Jan 2012

Greening the Rust Belt: A Green Infrastructure Model for Right Sizing America's Shrinking Cities

Article

Full-text available

Oct 2008

Problem: Existing planning and redevelopment models do not offer a holistic approach for addressing the challenges vacant and abandoned properties create in America's older industrial cities, but these shrinking cities possess opportunities to undertake citywide greening strategies that convert such vacant properties to community assets.Purpose: We define strategies shrinking cities can use to convert vacant properties to valuable green infrastructure to revitalize urban environments, empower community residents, and stabilize dysfunctional real estate markets. To do this we examine shrinking cities and their vacant property challenges; identify the benefits of urban greening; explore the policies, obstacles, and promise of a green infrastructure initiative; and discuss vacant property reclamation programs and policies that would form the nucleus of a model green infrastructure right-sizing initiative designed to stabilize the communities with the greatest level of abandonment.Methods: We draw our conclusions based on fieldwork, practitioner interviews, and a review of the current literature.Results and conclusions: We propose a new model to effectively right size shrinking cities by (a) instituting green infrastructure plans and programs, (b) creating land banks to manage the effort, and (c) building community consensus through collaborative neighborhood planning. Our model builds on lessons learned from successful vacant property and urban greening programs, including nonprofit leadership and empowerment of neighborhood residents, land banking, strategic neighborhood planning, targeted revitalization investments, and collaborative planning. It will require planners and policymakers to address challenges such as financing, displacement of local residents, and lack of legal authority.Takeaway for practice: We conclude that academics, practitioners, and policymakers should collaborate to (a) explore alternative urban designs and innovative planning and zoning approaches to right sizing; (b) collect accurate data on the number and costs of vacant properties and potential savings of different right-sizing strategies; (c) craft statewide vacant property policy agendas; and (d) establish a policy network of shrinking cities to share information, collaboratively solve problems, and diffuse policy innovations.Research support: Our field work was supported by technical assistance grants and contracts through the National Vacant Properties Campaign.

Theorising Socio-spatial Relations

Article

Full-text available

Jun 2008

This essay seeks to reframe recent debates on sociospatial theory through the introduction of an approach that can grasp the inherently polymorphic, multidimensional character of sociospatial relations. As previous advocates of a scalar turn, we now question the privileging, in any form, of a single dimension of sociospatial processes, scalar or otherwise. We consider several recent sophisticated 'turns' within critical social science; explore their methodological limitations; and highlight several important strands of sociospatial theory that seek to transcend the latter. On this basis, we argue for a more systematic recognition of polymorphy-the organization of sociospatial relations in multiple forms-within sociospatial theory. Specifically, we suggest that territories (T), places (P), scales (S), and networks (N) must be viewed as mutually constitutive and relationally intertwined dimensions of sociospatial relations. We present this proposition as an extension of recent contributions to the spatialization of the strategic-relational approach (SRA), and we explore some of its methodological implications. We conclude by briefly illustrating the applicability of the 'TPSN framework' to several realms of inquiry into sociospatial processes under contemporary capitalism.

The limits to scale? Methodological reflections on scalar structuration

Article

Full-text available

Dec 2001

Neil Brenner

Fruitful new avenues of theorization and research have been opened by recent writings on the production of geographical scale. However, this outpouring of research on scale production and on rescaling processes has been accompanied by a notable analytical blunting of the concept of geographical scale as it has been blended unreflexively into other core geograph- ical concepts such as place, locality, territory and space. This essay explores this methodological danger: first, through a critical reading of Sallie Marston's (2000) recent article in this journal on 'The social construction of scale'; second, through a critical examination of the influential notion of a politics 'of ' scale. A concluding section suggests that our theoretical grasp of geographical scale could be significantly advanced if scaling processes are distinguished more precisely from other major dimensions of sociospatial structuration under capitalism. Eleven methodological hypotheses for confronting this task are then proposed.

Declining Suburbs in Europe and Latin America

Article

Full-text available

Feb 2012

Suburban shrinkage, understood as a degenerative urban process stemming from the demise of the Fordist mode of urbanism, is generally manifested in a decline in population, industry and employment. It is also intimately linked to the global restructuring of industrial organization associated with the rise of the post‐Fordist mode of urbanism and, more recently, the thrust of Asian industrialization. Framed in the discourse of industrial urbanism, this article examines the first ring of industrial suburbs that developed around large cities in their most rapid Fordist urbanization phase. These industrial suburbs, although they were formed at different times, are today experiencing specific mutations and undergoing profound restructuring on account of their particular spatial position between the central area and the expanding peripheries of the post‐Fordist metropolis. This article describes and compares suburban decline in two European cities (Glasgow and Paris) and two Latin American Cities (São Paulo, Brazil and Guadalajara, Mexico), as different instances of places asymmetrically and fragmentarily integrated into the geography of globalization. Résumé La décroissance suburbaine, analysée comme un processus découlant de la disparition du mode fordiste de développement urbain, se manifeste généralement par une baisse de la population, de l’activitééconomique et de l’emploi. Elle est aussi intimement liée à la restructuration globale de l’organisation industrielle associée à la montée du mode post‐fordiste de développement urbain et, plus récemment, à la poussée de l’industrialisation en Asie. Fondé sur les approches de l’urbanisme industriel, cet article examine la première couronne de banlieues industrielles qui s’est développée autour des grandes villes dans la phase la plus rapide de l’urbanisation fordiste. Ces banlieues industrielles, bien que formées à différentes périodes, connaissent aujourd’hui des mutations spécifiques et des restructurations profondes liées à leur position particulière: entre les villes centres et les périphéries en expansion de la métropole post‐fordiste. Cet article décrit et compare la décroissance des banlieues dans deux villes européennes (Glasgow et Paris) et deux villes latino‐américaines (São Paulo au Brésil et Guadalajara au Mexique), comme différents exemples de territoires intégrés de manière asymétrique et fragmentée dans la géographie de la globalisation.

Shrinking Cities: Urban Challenges of Globalization

Article

Full-text available

Mar 2012

Urban shrinkage is not a new phenomenon. It has been documented in a large literature analyzing the social and economic issues that have led to population flight, resulting, in the worse cases, in the eventual abandonment of blocks of housing and neighbourhoods. Analysis of urban shrinkage should take into account the new realization that this phenomenon is now global and multidimensional — but also little understood in all its manifestations. Thus, as the world's population increasingly becomes urban, orthodox views of urban decline need redefinition. The symposium includes articles from 10 urban analysts working on 30 cities around the globe. These analysts belong to the Shrinking Cities International Research Network (SCIRN), whose collaborative work aims to understand different types of city shrinkage and the role that different approaches, policies and strategies have played in the regeneration of these cities. In this way the symposium will inform both a rich diversity of analytical perspectives and country‐based studies of the challenges faced by shrinking cities. It will also disseminate SCIRN's research results from the last 3 years. Résumé La décroissance urbaine n'est pas un phénomène nouveau. De nombreux travaux ont analysé les problèmes sociaux et économiques conduisant au départ de populations et résultant dans les pires des cas à l'abandon d'îlots d'habitat et de quartiers entiers. Cependant, l'étude de la décroissance urbaine doit aujourd'hui tenir compte du constat récent selon lequel ce phénomène est désormais global et multidimensionnel, tout en restant peu appréhendé dans toutes ses composantes. Ainsi, alors que la population mondiale est de plus en plus urbaine, les conceptions classiques du déclin urbain méritent d'être réexaminées. Ce symposium inclut des articles de dix chercheurs travaillant sur trente villes à travers le monde. Ils appartiennent au Shrinking Cities International Research Netwok (SCIRN), dont le travail collectif a pour objectif d'analyser différents types de décroissance urbaine et le rôle que les multiples approches, politiques et stratégies ont joué dans la régénération des villes touchées par ce processus. Ce numéro s'appuie sur une diversité d'approches et sur l'étude de contextes urbains variés, ayant pour point commun d'être concernés par les enjeux de la décroissance urbaine. Il permet de diffuser les résultats des recherches menées au sein du SCIRN au cours des trois dernières années.

The trajectories of European cities, 1960–2005

Article

Full-text available

Jun 2007
CITIES

Cities have been viewed for several decades as the places within Europe typically facing the greatest problems associated with economic and population decline. A contrasting view has emerged recently that identifies cities as sites of economic dynamism and social vitality. The paper offers evidence on population change for 310 cities across the whole of Europe to assess how their fortunes have changed over the period from the 1960s through to 2005. It reveals considerable diversity of experience, with one in seven cities described as resurgent on a strict definition of decline followed by growth. They are outnumbered by cities that have experienced continuous growth and those that have had a recent downturn. Taking a long-term overview, the growth of European cities has generally slowed over the last few decades. A short-term perspective suggests something of a recovery within the last five years. Growth and revival are more common in Western Europe and decline is more widespread in the East. The position of larger cities also appears to have improved slightly relative to smaller cities.

Analytic implications of the corporate town atenquique and its shrinkage, economic and environmental decline

Article

Aug 2013

José G Vargas-Hernández

Peripheralization: Theoretical Concepts Explaining Socio-Spatial Inequalities

Article

Feb 2015

Manfred Kühn

The current increase in socio-spatial inequalities in Europe has led to a revival of the terms “peripheralization” and “marginalization” in spatial research. In contrast to the geographical notion of a “periphery”, which is synonymous with distance to a centre and being situated on the fringes of a city, region or nation, research on “peripheralization” describes the production of peripheries through social relations and their spatial implications. The main part of the article provides a critical review of theoretical concepts which attempt to explain socio-spatial disparities between centralization and peripheralization processes. This includes theories of economic polarization, social inequality and political power. Building on this, a multidimensional concept of socio-spatial polarization is outlined, one which comprises processes of centralization and peripheralization in economic, social and political dimensions. Finally, implications are drawn for spatial planning regarding the polarization between metropolitan and non-metropolitan regions and areas for further research are highlighted.

Spatial Divisions Of Labour: Social Structures And The Geography Of Production

Book

Jan 1984

Doreen Massey

The Economic Theory and the Underdevelopped Regions

Article

Jan 1957

Gunnar Myrdal

The Bounds of Smart Decline: A Foundational Theory for Planning Shrinking Cities

Article

Jun 2011

Economic decline has led to a new wave of population decline throughout the US, meaning more and more cities are shrinking. Growing interest in using smart decline principles to respond to shrinkage has been met with controversy in cities such as Detroit and Cleveland. This paper advances a foundational theory of smart decline that takes as its starting point discussions of ethics, equity, and social justice in the planning and political theory literature, but is well grounded in observations of successful smart decline practice.

New State Spaces: Urban Governance and the Rescaling of Statehood

Book

Sep 2004

Neil Brenner

Neil Brenner has in the past few years made a major impact on the ways in which we understand the changing political geographies of the modern state. Simultaneously analyzing the restructuring of urban governance and the transformation of national states under globalizing capitalism, 'New State Spaces' is a mature and sophisticated analysis of broad interdisciplinary interest, making this a highly significant contribution to the subject. Available in OSO: http://www.oxfordscholarship.com/oso/public/content/politicalscience/9780199270057/toc.html

The Shrinking Mining City: Urban Dynamics and Contested Territory

Article

Mar 2012

Shrinking mining cities — once prosperous settlements servicing a mining site or a system of mining sites — are characterized by long‐term population and/or economic decline. Many of these towns experience periods of growth and shrinkage, mirroring the ebbs and flows of international mineral markets which determine the fortunes of the dominant mining corporation upon which each of these towns heavily depends. This dependence on one main industry produces a parallel development in the fluctuations of both workforce and population. Thus, the strategies of the main company in these towns can, to a great extent, determine future developments and have a great impact on urban management plans. Climate conditions, knowledge, education and health services, as well as transportation links, are important factors that have impacted on lifestyles in mining cities, but it is the parallel development with the private sector operators (often a single corporation) that constitutes the distinctive feature of these cities and that ultimately defines their shrinkage. This article discusses shrinking mining cities in capitalist economies, the factors underpinning their development, and some of the planning and community challenges faced by these cities in Australia, Canada, Japan and Mexico. Résumé Les villes minières en décroissance, localités autrefois prospères qui desservent un site ou un réseau de sites d'exploitation minière, se caractérisent par un long déclin de leur population et de leur économie. Beaucoup d'entre elles connaissent des périodes de croissance et de décroissance, à l'image des hauts et des bas des marchés miniers internationaux dont dépend la prospérité du groupe minier prépondérant dans chacune de ces villes. Cette dépendance vis‐à‐vis d'une seule activité industrielle génère une évolution parallèle de la main‐d'œuvre et de la population. Dans ces villes, les stratégies de l'entreprise principale peuvent donc très largement déterminer les aménagements futurs et influer sur les plans de gestion urbaine. Conditions climatiques, savoirs, éducation, services de santé et réseaux de transport sont des facteurs importants dans le mode de vie local, mais ce sont les transformations qui vont de pair avec l'évolution des opérateurs du secteur privé (souvent une seule grosse entreprise) qui constituent le trait distinctif de ces villes minières et détermine finalement le ‘rétrécissement’ urbain. Cet article analyse les villes minières en décroissance dans les économies capitalistes en s'attachant aux facteurs fondamentaux de leur développement et à certains enjeux, propres à l'aménagement et à la communauté, auxquels ces villes sont confrontées dans leur pays respectif (Australie, Canada, Japon et Mexique).

Urban Population Loss in Historical Perspective: United States, 1820–2000

Article

Mar 2009

Robert A. Beauregard

Employing an historical perspective, the author mounts a quantitative and theoretical assessment of population loss in the large cities of the United States. Three periods are considered: one prior to 1920 when large city population loss was aberrant; a second which captures the severe decline of the decades after World War II, and a third that encompasses the more recent shrinkage of cities. Population loss is measured in terms of prevalence, severity, and persistence and is also analyzed geographically. The author further identifies factors affecting population loss which are common and unique to each period. Although population loss has diminished, a number of cities are locked into trajectories of chronic loss, suggesting that a new phase of urbanization has yet to materialize.

Shrinking cities: international perspectives and policy implications

E. Cunningham-Sabot
I. Audirac
S. Fol
C. Martinez-Fernandez

Peripheralization: the making of spatial dependencies and social injustice

M. Kühn
M. Bernt

<http://www.ufz.de/export/data/400/39021_D7_living_document_submission_290710.pdf> (accessed 23 August 2015)

D. Rink
A. Haase
M. Bernt
V. Mykhnenko

Competitive European peripheries: advances in spatial science

N. Smith

Spaces of globalization: reasserting the power of the local

E. Swyngedouw

<http://www.shrinkingcities.eu/fileadmin/Dortmund/Wolff_SC_Data.pdf> (accessed 24 August 2015)

M. Wolff

Synthesis-challenges of shrinkage (WP 3 of the Shrinksmart-Project)[WWW document

D A Rink
M Haase
Berntandv
Mykhnenko

Shrinking cities in Europe-problems of data and methodes [sic]. Paper presented at CIRES Training School 2011-Mapping Urban Shrinkage [WWW document

M Wolff

The Limits of Shrinkage: Conceptual Pitfalls and Alternatives in the Discussion of Urban Population Loss

Abstract

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