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Sliding doors of opportunity: Zapatistas and their cycle of

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Using a cross-sectional time-series event-count model, this study analyzes the effects of local, national, and international variables on pro-Zapatista protests across the 111 localities (municipios) of Chiapas over a ten-year period (1994-2003). Protests were more likely to occur in localities with previous protest activity, a closed political system, and a larger presence of the military. Local and national electoral openings, as well as a larger local and national presence of the Zapatistas' presumed political ally, the Partido de la Revolucion Democrdtica (PRD), had a negative relationship with protest activity. Specific openings to the Zapatistas also worked as protest depressants. International attention did not show any significant effect on Zapatista protest activity. However, these institutional and specific openings were only ephemeral opportunities in that they did not translate into substantive concessions for the movement. They appear to have decreased the strength of the Zapatista protest cycle, while the international attention to the movement did not show any significant effect on it.

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... At a national level, it is the political and institutional context and political opportunity structures that determine the dynamics of not only contention, but also diffusion. Social movement scholars point out that contentious action always mirrors the institutions it challenges, because it is shaped by the existing opportunity structures (Almeida 2003;Inclán 2009;Osa 2003;Tarrow 2010;Tilly 1986;Tilly and Wood 2003;Traugott 1995a). In a similar vein, the ties between social actors are also shaped by their institutional and political context and the constraints it imposes, since this determines what kinds of channels are available and what content may be transmitted (Oliver and Myers 2003;Osa 2003;Osa and Schock 2007). ...
... Apart from changes over time that are unrelated to contention, prior cases of contention may also have an important impact through learning on the part of both contentious and state actors, such as the strategic siting of contested facilities (McAdam and Boudet 2012: 56). Moreover, growing repression or coercion of spreading contention on the part of the government may lead to more contentious action, stifle contention, or impact the mode of action that is employed (Almeida 2003;Inclán 2009;McAdam 2003: 295;Oliver and Myers 2003: 175;Osa 2003;Tilly and Wood 2003). This also impacts the kinds of linkages that will develop. ...
... According to Tarrow's research, raise in cycles is strongly related to opening opportunities, while some other scholars associate an increase in cycles with a decrease in POS. Thus, M. Inclán (2009) Moreover, social movements tend to influence each other, and it is worth assuming that the more eventful the protest is, the larger will be the effect from it on the following acts of contention. ...
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... así, esta línea ha dado lugar a una serie de estudios empíricos reveladores sobre diversas formas de acción colectiva contenciosa (ver por ejemplo Jenkins, Jacobs y angone, 2003;mcadam, 1988;minkoff, 1995;tarrow, 1989). si bien esta perspectiva surge en estados unidos y en europa, se ha aplicado más recientemente a américa Latina (almeida, 2003;inclan, 2009, 2008strawn, 2005), donde la visión de los movimientos sociales durante las transiciones a la democracia en el continente estuvo por muchos años permeada por el enfoque europeo de los "nuevos movimientos sociales" (evers, 1985;escobar y Álvarez, 1992;Oxhorn, 1995). este último enfatizaba el poder transformativo de la sociedad civil, proponía una dicotomía entre identidad y estrategia, y admiraba profundamente la movilización autónoma, es decir, al margen del estado y los partidos (davis, 1999; roberts, 1997). ...
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