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Thinking, Fast and Slow

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... En suivant ces lignes antérieures de recherche, cet article propose une synthèse concernant la valeur fondamentale de l'association libre lors des séances de thérapies psychodynamiques et de psychanalyse. Il présente tout d'abord les origines historiques du concept d'association libre dans la théorie psychanalytique, discute ensuite son développement au sein de la recherche en psychologie cognitive (Kahneman, 2003(Kahneman, , 2011, en neurosciences (Friston, 2009 ;Cahart-Harris et Friston, 2010), et en neuropsychanalyse (Solms et Turnbull, 2011). En dépit de distinctions significatives au sein de ces modèles, nous nous centrons sur les connexions entre concepts neuroscientifiques et psychanalytiques pour mettre en lumière l'hétérogénéité des modes psychiques de symbolisation (Roussillon, 2015), développant ainsi les premières observations dans les champs (Mancia, 2006 ;De Masi et al., 2015). ...
... Une première comparaison émerge au travers des travaux de Kahneman (2003) qui se focalise sur la compréhension et la modélisation des biais de raisonnement, en les étudiants au travers de diverses expérimentations ingénieuses. Kahneman (2003Kahneman ( , 2011 Bien que ces deux modèles ne se recouvrent pas totalement, il est intéressant que, malgré des méthodologies très différentes, Freud et Kahneman trouvent tout deux « couches » principales de fonctionnement psychologique dont les caractéristiques peuvent se traduire d'un modèle sur l'autre. Nous pourrions considérer que le S1 et le S2 que Kahneman décrit sont l'expression des processus primaire et secondaire à un niveau cognitif de fonctionnement même si des distinctions demeurent : Kahneman analyse des modes psychiques de fonctionnement principalement en termes de mécanismes cognitif et de raisonnement, alors que Freud présente une théorie de la psyché qui a principalement à voir avec sa construction psycho-affective. ...
... C'est exactement ce que Freud a essayé de faire en montrant les grands principes qui organisent la réalité psychique (principe de plaisir, principe de réalité, principe de constance, etc.). De même, la distinction entre processus primaires et secondaires semble constituer les deux niveaux les plus significatifs du fonctionnement mental associés à des principes spécifiques, comme le suggèrent à la fois Freud (1900) et Kahneman (2011). Comme nous allons maintenant l'explorer, Solms, Friston et Carhart-Harris proposent également un modèle qui reflète et enrichit les modèles psychanalytiques et la modélisation de ces principes, notamment en ce qui concerne la libre association. ...
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Pourquoi cette traduction de Entropy, Free Energy, and Symbolization Jérôme Alain Lapasset 29 VII 2022 Je propose ici une traduction, en accès libre, d’un article en anglais qui se propose de contribuer à une réflexion dans le champ hautement spéculatif de la neuropsychanalyse. Il s’agit de : Rabeyron, T. and Massicotte, C. (2020). Entropy, Free Energy, and Symbolization : Free Association at the Intersection of Psychoanalysis and Neuroscience. Front. Psychol. 11 : 366. doi : 10.3389/fpsyg.2020.00366 ; Frontiers in Psychology ǀ www.frontiersin.org. Je ne suis pas psychanalyste, j’ai néanmoins beaucoup travaillé pour comprendre au mieux les propos, tenter de respecter et d’éclairer les concepts qui ne sont pas au premier plan de ma pratique clinique, en fournissant les moyens au lecteur intéressé d’en saisir la substantifique moelle et, pourquoi pas, investiguer davantage la (ou les) question(s) que cet écrit ne peut manquer de soulever. Il va de soi que cette traduction a été soumise à l’auteur principal (le professeur Thomas Rabeyron), ce qui a ouvert à des discutions intéressantes et dont je le remercie. Par nature, J’apprécie de me frotter à d’autres systèmes de pensée…. C’est ainsi, que la présente traduction est dans la continuation d’un travail de réflexions engagé depuis de nombreuses années et dont la mise en accès libre sur internet du Nouveau Projet pour une Psychologie Scientifique : schéma général (traduction de Mark Solms (2020): New project for a scientific psychology: General scheme, Neuropsychoanalysis, DOI: 10.1080/15294145.2020.1833361, en février 2021) n’est qu’un exemple. De formation scientifique, j’ai parfaitement conscience des limites de la science en général et des neurosciences en particulier, mais c’est précisément ce qui fait toute la valeur de la démarche scientifique… Si pour moi le cerveau est la plaque tournante (le « Hub » central de toute expérience vécue, les différents niveaux d’analyse que propose les neurosciences, disons, cognitive, affective et sociale, nous apportent des éclairages essentiels pour comprendre, critiquer, remanier, affiner des modèles de fonctionnement de la psyché pour les psychanalystes, de l’esprit incarné (fusse-t-il ou non un espace neuronal global de travail, pour moi) ; et impulser de nouvelles formalisation modélistique à partir des questionnements paradigmatiques … L’esprit critique constructif, l’analyse rigoureuse en collaboration et l’expérience partagée sont des traits dominant de mon travail (intellectuel, clinique, thérapeutique… et personnel sur moi-même)… En fait, rarement un livre ne m’a autant touché, sur les plans professionnel et personnel, que l’ouvrage récent « Un coup de hache dans la tête, Folie et créativité » du professeur Raphael Gaillard (2022)(1) … Un exemple de sens de la mesure, au travers de l’expression d’une intelligence humaine à la fois rigoureuse et lucide. Tout cela pour dire que, même si je reconnais le caractère révolutionnaire, à l’époque, de Sigmund Freud, le fait de vouloir prouver qu’il avait raison, m’irrite un peu et me semble aux antipodes des aspirations de l’homme lui-même… j’ai également apprécié l’esprit de mesure, la rigueur scientifique et l’attention portée à l’expérience humaine du dernier ouvrage de Jean Pol Tassin (2021) (2) qui propose également, tout en respectant les perspectives de chacun, une réelle intention, non de triturer des faits, mais de contribuer à une pensée novatrice, concrète et pertinente à une utilité réelle du soin. Je n’ai aucun esprit de chapelle ; ce n’est pas ce qui m’anime…. Je pense que la dimension politico-économique, ainsi que les prérogatives institutionnelles, ou les revendications théoriques exclusives, desservent autant les finalités desdites institutions qu’elles sont censées défendre que les individus qui ont l’ambition de s’y faire reconnaître, sans parler de l’aspiration à œuvrer pour une connaissance (à multiples facettes) véridique et au service du soin. C’est dans cette intention que je verse ce travail au débat. Ceci permettrait de passer, selon moi, non pas d’une « neuropsychanalyse » à une « psychanaloneuroscience », mais de définir où aller vers la précision de nouveaux concepts à la fois ancrés dans l’expérience clinique et les sciences du cerveau, à un autre niveau de complexité (niveau d’analyse et de développement), autre que la captation partielle de concepts, le plus souvent trop simplificateurs. N’oublions pas qu’aujourd’hui, le mercantilisme et l’industrie s’emparent des neurosciences pour asservir le grand public au libéralisme économique et imposer dans l’esprit du consommateur moyen la seule référence techno-cérébrale au service des pulsions d’achat ; ce que la psychanalyse a elle-même fait à sa manière devant sa remise en cause récente en France, au point que certains caciques (3) essaient d’introduire de pseudo méthodes d’évaluation, sous forme tautologique pour valider des pratiques hasardeuses…. (1) - Gaillard, R. (2022). Un coup de hache dans la tête, Folie et créativité, PARIS : Grasset Éd., 256 pages. (2) - Tassin, J.-P. (2021). Les coulisses du cerveau, l’inconscient aux commandes, MALAKOFF : Dunod Éd., 171 pages. (3) - Quatre sens existent à ce terme : 1. Vieux. Chef indien de certaines tribus d'Amérique ; 2. En Espagne et en Amérique espagnole, notable local qui exerce un contrôle de fait sur la vie politique et sociale de son district ; 3. Familier. Premier à un concours, en particulier à l'École normale supérieure : 4. Familier. Personne qui occupe socialement une des premières places.
... MD and AUC [31,32]) MT metrics. In addition, the MT metrics allow detecting whether, during the temporal unfolding of mouse movements towards the response target, the trajectories follow an abrupt profile characterised by a sharp mid-flight correction mirroring the competition between two systems during the evolution of the movement (Dualsystem framework; [33,34]), or relatively smooth profile mirroring a dynamical competition of different conscious and unconscious processes that simultaneously compete in guiding the movement (Dynamical framework; [12,35,36]). ...
... Traditionally, the MT approach has always been used to rule out which class of cognitive frameworks has been engaged in guidance the temporal evolution of judgements and decisions [26]. The dual-system or stage-based perspective is the most widely endorsed theoretical framework used to make predictions about the temporal sequence of a decision process towards a target choice [33,34]. This framework implies that a decision unfolds via a two-system sequence whereby a faster, automatic driven representation (system 1) guide the early path of hand movement towards the target choice, and, after a time lag, a slower cognitive system (system 2) can exert a controlled response to correct this initial response [15, 22, 26-29, 33, 34, 65]. ...
... Besides the dual-system perspective, another class of theoretical model refers to a dynamical competition (Dynamical Framework) of different controlled and automatic representations that synchronously interact in guiding the path of hand movement towards the target choice [27-29, 35, 36, 66]. Notably, the distributional analyses of the MT metrics allow detecting whether the trajectories follow an abrupt profile, characterised by a sharp mid-flight correction mirroring the competition between two systems during the evolution of the movement (Dual-system framework; [33,34]), or relatively smooth profile mirroring a dynamical competition of different controlled and automatic processes that simultaneously guide the movement (Dynamical framework; [35,36,66]). In line with Yu, Wang [31], the distributional analyses on our MT-race-IAT showed that in both congruent and incongruent trials, mouse trajectories displayed smooth fashion profile indicating that, overall, the decision process and the consequently raised cognitive conflict appear to unfold guided by dynamical cognitive processing (see Fig 4). ...
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In this study, we adapted a race-Implicit Association Test (race-IAT) to mouse-tracking (MT) technique to identify the more representative target observed MT-metrics and explore the temporal unfolding of the cognitive conflict emerging during the categorisation task. Participants of Western European descent performed a standard keyboard-response race-IAT (RT-race-IAT) and an MT-race-IAT with the same structure. From a behavioural point of view, our sample showed a typical Congruency Effect, thus a pro-White implicit bias, in the RT-race-IAT. In addition, in the MT-race-IAT, the MT-metrics showed a similar Congruency Effect mirroring the higher attraction of the averaged-trajectories towards the incorrect response button in incongruent than congruent trials. Moreover, these MT-metrics were positively associated with RT-race-IAT scores, strengthening the MT approach’s validity in characterising the implicit bias. Furthermore, the distributional analyses showed that mouse trajectories displayed a smooth profile both in congruent and incongruent trials to indicate that the unfolding of the decision process and the raised conflict is guided by dynamical cognitive processing. This latter continuous competition process was studied using a novel phase-based approach which allowed to temporally dissect an Early, a Mid and a Late phase, each of which may differently reflect the decision conflict between automatic and controlled responses in the evolution of the mouse movement towards the target response. Our results show that the MT approach provides an accurate and finer-grained characterisation of the implicit racial attitude than classical RT-IAT. Finally, our novel phase-based approach can be an effective tool to shed light on the implicit conflict processing emerging in a categorisation task with a promising transferable value in different cognitive and neuropsychological fields.
... Mientras tanto, otra fracción de este conocimiento no es fácilmente transferible, pero es muy importante para realizar acciones hábilmente concebidas. Eso es el conocimiento tácito (Collins, 2010), un conocimiento que guía las acciones y respuestas situacionales del profesorado a pesar de que él o ella no conoce los principios que rigen el pensamiento detrás de esas acciones (Kahneman, 2011). En esto, lo relevante es que el conocimiento tácito puede explicarse o formalizarse a través de la práctica reflexiva, haciéndose explícito, y por tanto accesible de usar y regular conscientemente en al acto de enseñar. ...
... Cuando el profesorado logra comprender las reglas fundamentales de una acción de enseñanza específica, por ejemplo, formular preguntas o explicar un tema determinado, podríamos pensar que se ha dado una reflexión consciente. Esa reflexión, podría entenderla desde un plano perceptivo, es decir, la/el profesor accede a la información desde los sentidos (Rusell, 2014) y otro, desde el plano del pensamiento tácito; es decir, en un hacer intuitivo en la que existen una serie de reglas orientadoras o pautas que permiten ejecutar eficazmente una acción (Kahneman, 2011;Porlán y Rivero, 1998). En ese sentido, la práctica reflexiva se visualiza como una herramienta cognitiva potente, si permite revelar las reglas orientadoras de una acción de enseñanza definida e intencionada necesarias de comprender, amplia y profundamente, para mejorar su regulación docente. ...
... Estos desaf íos nos lleva a pensar, en una práctica reflexiva que intenten recoger, en algún grado, el carácter tácito del conocimiento especializado del profesorado y su puesta en marcha, porque constituyen la guía y orientación de las acciones y de las respuestas que este puede dar en contexto, desconociendo los principios teóricos que las rigen (Kahneman, 2011). Por ello, promover la práctica reflexiva hacia el desarrollo de la atención selectiva, representaría una opción plausible de crecimiento profesional, porque obliga al profesorado a saber cuándo y cómo usar su conocimiento profesional, orquestadamente, para razonar y decidir. ...
... The main aim of this contribution is to stabilize and generalize the use of the conceptual labels originating from "dual" theories of reasoning, so as to provide a theoretical unification with theories of cognitive artifacts, and to describe in an abstract way the mechanics of cognitive artifacts. Psychological literature has by and large accepted the distinction between two "systems", or -as I shall say -two modes of operation of the brain in certain tasks, mainly reasoning and decision making tasks (Evans 2003(Evans , 2012(Evans , 2015Evans and Frankish 2009;Kahneman 2011). Mode 1 (M1, for brevity) is an automatic, autonomous, stimulus-driven, fast operating mode that delivers rough but locally acceptable results; M2 is modulated by will and attention, operates slowly and stepwise, intensely uses working memory, and is in general more accurate. ...
... Mode 1 is the way my brain operates when I cross the street in France, and Mode 2 when I do so in Great Britain. In the first case I think fast, in the second I think slow (Kahneman 2011). But what do "fast" and "slow" mean? ...
... Although the ideal visual analytic workflow is bias-free, in reality, people can fall victim to a variety of cognitive and perceptual biases when making sense of data [14,75,77,84,85]. Visualization readers can latch on to salient features when interpreting visualizations and gravitate toward unique colors [1], larger fonts [30,83], and patterns that are aligned with their beliefs and agendas [7,87], giving in to letting their intuition drive decision making [35,62]. ...
... When people encounter new information, they may struggle to properly incorporate past knowledge and existing beliefs to make judgments with regard to the new information, leading to biases in data interpretation [13]. For example, failed belief updating can drive people to be overconfident in their judgment [18,74], as can confirmation bias [35,74]. People who are subject to confirmation bias often attend and search only for information that supports prior beliefs and do not consider alternative explanations [46,61,81]. ...
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When an analyst or scientist has a belief about how the world works, their thinking can be biased in favor of that belief. Therefore, one bedrock principle of science is to minimize that bias by testing the predictions of one's belief against objective data. But interpreting visualized data is a complex perceptual and cognitive process. Through two crowdsourced experiments, we demonstrate that supposedly objective assessments of the strength of a correlational relationship can be influenced by how strongly a viewer believes in the existence of that relationship. Participants viewed scatterplots depicting a relationship between meaningful variable pairs (e.g., number of environmental regulations and air quality) and estimated their correlations. They also estimated the correlation of the same scatterplots labeled instead with generic 'X' and 'Y' axes. In a separate section, they also reported how strongly they believed there to be a correlation between the meaningful variable pairs. Participants estimated correlations more accurately when they viewed scatterplots labeled with generic axes compared to scatterplots labeled with meaningful variable pairs. Furthermore, when viewers believed that two variables should have a strong relationship, they overestimated correlations between those variables by an r-value of about 0.1. When they believed that the variables should be unrelated, they underestimated the correlations by an r-value of about 0.1. While data visualizations are typically thought to present objective truths to the viewer, these results suggest that existing personal beliefs can bias even objective statistical values people extract from data.
... Biases acquire a functional nature as the evidence is weak and lose it when the evidence is strong (Visher, 1987;Kahneman, 2011;Butterfield and Bitter, 2019;Nitschke et al., 2019). In crimes committed in the private sphere (e.g., domestic violence, sexual assault) there are, therefore, few media of burden of proof beyond the testimony of the complainant and the evaluation of the damage to the complainant (Arce, 2017). ...
... However, the case study warns that around 1/3 of the judicial agents (34.0, 30.2, and 28.8%, respectively), would attribute, respectively, more responsibility, truthfulness, and prevention capacity to the complainant when the perpetrator is known (statistical model error). Motivational attribution biases refer to a tendency to form and hold beliefs that conform to the needs of the individual, in this case, judgment making and the subsequent decisionmaking, and manifest when the legal evidence is insufficient or weak (week cases; Butterfield and Bitter, 2019), being irrelevant in strong evidence cases (Visher, 1987;Kahneman, 2011). Under this contingency, judicial agents, in judicial judgment and decision making, must be guided by strict compliance with the principle of presumption of innocence (Article 11.1 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights; United Nations, 1948), which implies that none innocent person may be classified as guilty, so the attributional biases supporting the absolution of the accused of the crime would support the motivation of the procedural action taken or the judicial resolution. ...
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Background/Objective Judicial decisions must rest on formal reasoning. Nevertheless, informal reasoning sources (cognitive and motivational biases) were observed in judicial judgment making. Literature has identified sexual aggression cases as the most favorable for informal reasoning. Thus, a field study was designed with the aim of assessing the incidence and effects of cognitive and motivational biases in judicial agents in a case to rape to a woman. Methods As for this, Chilean judicial agents ( N = 217) assessed an allegation (weak evidence) of sexual assault in a case where the perpetrator was known or unknown to the victim. The judicial agents answered to a measure of the myths about sexual aggression, the attribution of responsibility to complainant, the attribution of responsibility to accused, the attribution of credibility to the complainant testimony, the attribution of a nature of a rape to the alleged facts and an estimation of the probability of false/unfounded accusations. Results The results revealed an estimation of false/unfounded accusations of sexual aggression significantly higher than the mean of the best estimates, but into the upper limit of the best estimates; that the studied population did not share, in general, the myths about sexual aggression; and that the sources of attributional biases were driven in favor and against the complainant. Nevertheless, the case study showed that a large number of judicial agents participated of an overestimation of the probabilities of false or unfounded allegations, and of the myths about sexual aggressions and of attributional biases against the complainant. Conclusion In conclusion, informal reasoning sources were observed in judicial agents when only formal reasoning should prevail. Thus, judicial agents should be trained to control these sources of bias substituting them by formal reasoning (evidence).
... Being tired, overworked, and cognitively busy can further reduce one's ability to behave rationally (Kahneman, 2011). When individuals are required to make decisions under time constraints, they become rushed and their cognitive resources that are needed to make rational choices are constrained (Bazerman & Tenbrunsel, 2011). ...
... In turn, they might select more high-risk options, even if they will likely lead to poor outcomes. One's ability to make rational decisions is further affected by cognitive biases (i.e., errors in judgment that inhibit one's ability to make rational decisions), including overconfidence, optimism, illusion of control, planning fallacy, and escalation of commitment (Kahneman, 2011). ...
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The fields of positive psychology, cognitive behavioral therapy, mindfulness, and goal-setting have all demonstrated that individuals can modify their beliefs, attitudes, intentions, and behaviors to improve their subjective happiness. But which ethical beliefs affect happiness positively? In comparison to ethical belief systems such as deontology, consequentialism, and altruism, rational egoism appears to be alone in suggesting that an individual’s long-term self-interest and subjective happiness is possible, desirable, and moral. Albeit an important theoretical foundation of the rational egoism philosophy, the relationship between rational egoism and subjective happiness has yet to be investigated empirically. Using (Overall and Gedeon, Business and Professional Ethics. 38:43–78, 2018) 24-item rational egoism scale, we test this relationship on a random sample of 534 full-time American workers using partial least squares structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM). Consistent with rational egoism theory, the main contribution to knowledge of this research is finding a statistically significant relationship between rational egoism and subjective happiness. Implications for practice and areas for future study are suggested.
... Par contre, la deuxième série des questions risquées a été caractérisée par une durée lente pour passer à l'action. Les chercheurs ont associé ces résultats à l'approche de la dualité du système de raisonnement du cerveau (Kahneman, 2011 ;Sloman, 2002). ...
... Les explications proposées par l'économie comportementale avancent le fait que le cerveau repose sur deux systèmes cognitifs pour adopter un processus de raisonnement : le système (1) caractérisé par sa rapidité et son intuitivité à collecter puis analyser les informations issues, et le système (2) délibératif caractérisé par sa lenteur à collecter et à exploiter les informations issues. (Evans, 2003 ;Kahneman, 2011 ;Sloman, 2002). ...
... My rational argumentation for choosing the topics creativity and leadership is that Huggle is at the earliest business stage, the stage of creativity, and the next obstacle that the start-up will be facing with high certainty is the crisis of leadership and a lack of direction (Greiner, 1998). However, despite these rational arguments and while reflecting on readings by Kahneman, my decision to focus on creativity and leadership is probably no rational decision, rather an unconscious and automatic one (Kahneman, 2011). ...
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The fields of creativity and especially of entrepreneurial leadership are frustratingly vague and scarce on definitions (Plucker, Beghetto & Dow, 2004; Leitch & Volery, 2017). For start-ups, creativity matters not only for survival and problem-solving but also for spotting opportunities and gaining competitive advantage (Fillis & Rentschler, 2010; Reiter-Palmon, Mitchell & Royston, 2019). Usually, we are losing a lot of our creativity through school and brain development during puberty (Vint, 2005; Blakemore, Burnett & Dahl, 2010). To make up for the loss of creativity in adulthood, we can enhance novelty and problem solving through including different people, perspectives and brain diversity and by taking time for incubation (Kachelmeier, Wang & Williamson, 2018; Hills, 2019). Furthermore, creative thinking increases through the right motivation and techniques like brainstorming, the six thinking hats, lateral thinking or double loop thinking (De Bono, 1970, 1999; Argyris, 1977; Arsad et al., 2012). The startups' CEO role can be to define problems, especially in the ideation phase and to spot opportunities within the start-up environment (Mumford et al., 2000; Mumford, Martin, et al., 2019; Reiter-Palmon, Mitchell & Royston, 2019). After defining the problem and giving a clear direction where to work towards to, the CEO can become the supporter of the team, to create a safe environment where everyone can be creative, adapting to the autonomous working style that creative and experienced people need (Reiter-Palmon, Mitchell & Royston, 2019). Through storytelling and applying positive psychology, a safe and optimistic environment that fosters creativity will be supported (Peterson et al., 2009; Balen, Tarakci & Sood, 2019).
... In the context of imperfect information, economic actors rely predominantly on perceptions and use mental shortcuts to make decisions using limited data (Kahneman, 2017). Reliance on instinct and emotions becomes dominant if it is dicult for economic actors to objectively assess the value of a commodity or service being bought and sold. ...
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Faced with incomplete and imperfect information, economic actors rely predominantly on perceptions and often base decisions on heuristics prone to bias. Gender bias in perceptions favoring men has been found in a wide variety of settings and may be an important reason why some sectors remain dominated by men and gender gaps persist. Using ratings of agro-input dealers provided by smallholder farmers in their vicinity, we test if farmers perceive male-managed agro-input shops differently than agro-input shops managed by women. After controlling for observable characteristics at the input dealer level and including fixed effects to account for farmer-level heterogeneity, we find that farmers rate male-managed agro-input outlets higher on a range of attributes related to the dealership in general, as well as when farmers are asked to consider the quality of inputs sold by the dealer. Our results suggest that consumers' biased perceptions continue to be an important entry barrier for women in the subsector, and we conclude that policies and interventions designed to challenge gender norms and customs are needed to correct bias in perceptions.
... Within the sciences, this benchmark may be an accurate description and interpretation of data (Shadish et al., 2002). This notion of 'cognitive bias' is consistent with the way the term is typically used in the cognitive sciences (Haselton et al., 2009;Stanovich, 2009;Kahneman, 2011). ...
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Many scientists routinely generalize from study samples to larger populations. It is commonly assumed that this cognitive process of scientific induction is a voluntary inference in which researchers assess the generalizability of their data and then draw conclusions accordingly. Here we challenge this view and argue for a novel account. The account describes scientific induction as involving by default a generalization bias that operates automatically and frequently leads researchers to unintentionally generalize their findings without sufficient evidence. The result is unwarranted, overgeneralized conclusions. We support this account of scientific induction by integrating a range of disparate findings from across the cognitive sciences that have until now not been connected to research on the nature of scientific induction. The view that scientific induction involves by default a generalization bias calls for a revision of our current thinking about scientific induction and highlights an overlooked cause of the replication crisis in the sciences. Commonly proposed interventions to tackle scientific overgeneralizations that may feed into this crisis need to be supplemented with cognitive debiasing strategies to most effectively improve science.
... re 9.000 sunt pentru ediția în limba engleză. (Google Scholar 2022) Cartea a petrecut 36 de săptămâni pe Lista celor mai bine vândute din New York Times; (Baker-Said 2008b) A fost publicat în 32 de limbi.Psihologul laureat al Premiului Nobel Daniel Kahneman a scris că "Lebăda Neagră mi-a schimbat viziunea asupra modului în care funcționează lumea".(Kahneman 2013) ...
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Recenzia cărții: Taleb, Nassim Nicholas (2007), The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Random House, ISBN 978-1400063512 Cartea abordează subiecte legate de cunoaștere și moduri de viață, cu elemente de ficțiune și anecdotice din viața personală a autorului, pornind de la aspecte literare până la cele științifice și matematice. Accentul este pus pe „orbirea noastră în ceea ce privește aleatorietatea, în special abaterile mari.” Teoria lebedei negre a fost dezvoltată de Nassim Nicholas Taleb pentru a explica rolul disproporționat al evenimentelor rare greu de prezis, incongruența metodelor științifice în calculul probabilității evenimentelor rare din cauza naturii probabilităților mici, și prejudecățile oamenilor față de incertitudine și rolul masiv al unui eveniment rar. Taleb propune oamenilor de afaceri dă folosească „strategia mrenei” pentru investiții pe care el însuși a folosit-o, care constă în evitarea investițiilor cu risc mediu și plasarea a 85–90% din bani în cele mai sigure instrumente disponibile și restul de 10–15% în afaceri extrem de speculative.
... A method suggested to manage the effect of neglected, misapplied or misunderstood base-rates in decision making is to find the most up-to-date population rates for the event individuals are judging and to use those rates as a comparison point (Kahneman, 2011;Neal & Grisso, 2014). Decision makers are encouraged to assess the strength and credibly of the evidence they are evaluating by comparing it to the population base-rate. ...
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Introduction: The current research explored the magnitude of professional industrial investigators' bias to attribute cause to a person more readily than to situational factors, i.e., human error bias. Such biased opinions may relieve companies from responsibilities and liability, as well as, compromise efficacy of suggested preventative measures. Method: Professional investigators and undergraduate participants were given a summary of a workplace event and asked to allocated cause to the factors they found causal for the event. The summary was crafted to be objectively balanced in its implication of cause equally between two factors: a worker and a tire. Participants then rated their confidence and the objectivity of their judgment. We then conducted an effect size analysis which supplemented the findings from our experiment with two previously published research studies that used the same event summary. Results: Professionals exhibited a human error bias, but nevertheless believed that they were objective and confident in their conclusions. The lay control group also showed this human error bias. These data, along with previous research data, revealed that given the equivalent investigative circumstances, this bias was significantly larger with the professional investigators, with an effect size of dunb = .97, than the control group with an effect size of only dunb = .32. Conclusions: The direction and strength of the human error bias can be quantified, and is shown to be larger in professional investigators compared to the lay people. Practical Applications: Understanding the strength and direction of bias is a crucial step in mitigating the effects of the bias. The results of the current research demonstrate that mitigation strategies such as proper investigator training, a strong investigation culture and standardized techniques, are potentially promising interventions to mitigate human error bias.
... Then again, the little exposure they have had likely gives an inflated impression of behavioral science's effectiveness. Additionally, people may generally overestimate effects due to the "What you see is all there is" (WYSIATI) bias [Kahneman, 2011]. For example, the exercise study asked behavioral scientists to consider, among other treatments, how much more people would exercise if researchers told them they were "gritty." ...
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How accurately can behavioral scientists predict behavior? To answer this question, we analyzed data from five studies in which 640 professional behavioral scientists predicted the results of one or more behavioral science experiments. We compared the behavioral scientists' predictions to random chance, linear models, and simple heuristics like "behavioral interventions have no effect" and "all published psychology research is false." We find that behavioral scientists are consistently no better than - and often worse than - these simple heuristics and models. Behavioral scientists' predictions are not only noisy but also biased. They systematically overestimate how well behavioral science "works": overestimating the effectiveness of behavioral interventions, the impact of psychological phenomena like time discounting, and the replicability of published psychology research.
... Short, high-quality instruments are ideal for research of large populations (30) because rapid, objective, personal feedback in a stable environment assists in the acquisition of information about beneficial behavioral and cognitive processes (31). Researchers have developed valid shorter versions or short forms (SF) of validated health measures to collect more and better data. ...
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Survey research is important for understanding health and improving practice among health professions. However, survey research can have drawbacks, such as overuse and excessively lengthy questionnaires that burden respondents. These issues lead to poor response rates and incomplete questionnaires. Low and incomplete response rates result in missing data and reduced sample size, damaging the value, usability and generalizability of the information collected. To address issues related to response rates and improve health research, shorter surveys are recommended because they impose less of a burden on respondents and are useful with larger populations. Health-related surveys also often focus on the factors leading to ill health without dedicating equal attention to factors supporting positive health. This study developed and tested a short form (SF) of the validated Salutogenic Wellness Promotion Scale (SWPS), which measures causes of health (rather than causes of disease), using responses from 2052 college students. The participants answered questions about their demographics and completed the SWPS and a perceived health assessment. Statistical tests demonstrated the SWPS-SF had significant relationships with the full SWPS, health status, and Grade Point Average (GPA). Statistical tests were also used to establish cutoff scores that had a high true positive and low false negative rate. These cutoff scores demonstrated a relationship of higher performance and better health. These promising results suggest this short test can provide valid information without burdening the respondents. Authors recommend additional tests be completed to validate the SWPS-SF.
... This dual system is combined with my teaching approach. (Kahneman, 2013) For effective memorization, I will combine classes with visual (videos, technological processes, etc.); acoustic (resonance noise, mechanical noise, etc.); semantic (what it means from different perspectives, products, and services meant in different cultures, etc.) and with tactical coding (economic impact with examples of wealth, etc.). All of these paragraphs are intentionally set in response to the conceptualization of theories in practice and for effective learning through well-structured information -each of which is stored, kept fragmented (chunking) towards short-and long-term memory, and retrieved by stimulus-action /practice, asked solutions, responsive, etc. (The Learning Center, 2021). ...
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This Teaching Philosophy Statement (Fourth Edition) acts as a Teaching Portfolio, providing my experience and knowledge gained over the years of teaching and learning methods to be a successful educator. The personal teaching objectives are better aligned, the methods of teaching and learning are understood and the role of the actors (strategic educational platforms and educational institutions, teachers and researchers, students, and other target groups of learners) is further determined and better defined - thanks to the intensive postgraduate Pedagogical Course Harvard | The Derek Bok Center for Teaching and Learning. https://bokcenter.harvard.edu My goal: is to be a professional and inspiring lecturer in economics disciplines. I want to contribute to the students' progressive development and qualitative preparation to achieve their goals in life through modern methods of advanced teaching. My Offer: I am confident in taking teaching and learning approaches to the economics discipline, designing, expressing, organizing, and providing assessments for learning progression towards understanding and Higher-Order cognitions of constant thinking for evaluating, analyzing, and being creative. I believe that our modern societies need education in every corner of today's world, to some extent toning down traditional education and promoting advanced education, striving for better, and making progress using existing skills and intellectual capital. Societies are now at the center of the educational framework, creating politically affordable and economical offers (decision-making bodies), influencing stakeholders (educational institutions, teachers, learners, and parents) to act as well, quickly, and purposefully as possible, taking into account what is necessary for their school development and by is of public interest. I am enthusiastic and passionate about my desire to continue to be an inspirational and professional educator in business and engineering. I aim to apply my acquired knowledge and experience through the continuity of current teaching and vision methods and to serve the students to learn progressively, to have achieved their goals, and experience their lives through success stories. I hope this paper helps you define your teaching philosophy. Renato Preza
... A number of concepts from cognitive psychology can explain the relationship between human behavior and decision-making, referenced by researchers in a field known as behavioral economics [13]. Theorists in behavioral economics seek to explain how and why people make decisions under uncertainty and to use small changes in the form of incentives to evaluate resulting changes in behavior [14,15]. ...
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Background Knee osteoarthritis (KOA) is a high-priority problem among the aging population. While exercise has been shown to be beneficial in management of the disease, scalable and low-cost interventions to improve exercise in this population are lacking. Recent controversy over the value of corticosteroid injections for palliation has also arisen. Therefore, we designed a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial with a 2-period crossover design to study (1) behavioral incentives to promote exercise and (2) corticosteroid injections to reduce pain and improve function in patients with KOA when compared to lidocaine only. Methods The study design is a pragmatic factorial and crossover randomized clinical trial. Patients with KOA who are deemed eligible by their provider to receive knee injections and are able to walk without assistive devices will be recruited from clinical practices at four sites within the Veterans Affairs (VA) Health System in the USA. In total, 220 participants will be randomized to receive social incentives with gamification (i.e., incorporation of game elements) to promote exercise and compared to controls that receive a Fitbit but no incentive. Each patient will also be assigned to receive a blinded corticosteroid injection and a lidocaine-only injection in random order. The primary outcomes are the change in average daily step counts from baseline and the change in Knee Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS) from baseline. The study team will continuously collect step count, heart rate, and sleep data using activity monitors and patient-reported outcomes using the Way to Health (WTH) platform at two four-week intervals over eight months of follow-up. Mixed effects regression incorporating all available data points will be used for analysis. Discussion The “Marching on for Veterans with Osteoarthritis of the Knee” (MOVE-OK) trial will take a pragmatic approach to evaluate (1) whether incentives based on behaviorally enhanced gamification can improve physical activity in this patient population and (2) whether corticosteroids injections reduce pain and disability in patients with KOA. Results of this trial will help to direct clinical practice and inform management guidelines. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05035810. Registered on 5 September 2021.
... In this way, exploratory risk taking is necessary for "developing wisdom/gist-based reasoning by trying out and learning from novel experiences" (Khurana et al., 2018(Khurana et al., , p. 1993. This form of risk taking is not only adaptive, as it provides feedback used to form more meaningful priors, heuristics (Kahneman, 2011), or scripts that can be applied to similar experiences in the future, with some studies even attributing this form of risk-taking to increased subsequent levels of rationality (Romer et al., 2017). In this way, it can be expected that exploratory risk taking provides an accumulation of experience from error feedback, resulting in long-term memory representations and better fitting heuristics for future experiences, which, in turn, manifests as more rational decision making over time. ...
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Developmental perspectives recognize the importance of the development of impulsivity and sensation seeking for later life educational attainment. The current study examines the effect of developmental trajectories of impulsivity and sensation seeking across adolescence and into young adulthood on educational attainment in adulthood. The study sample consists of N = 5529 youth from a population-based sample from the United States (48.96% female; 46.95% Black or Hispanic). Latent growth curve models are used to examine associations between within-individual changes in impulsivity and sensation seeking and educational attainment. The findings point to the existence of multiple forms of risk taking during different developmental stages, with some offering a positive long-term effect on overall educational attainment.
... By definition, a bias is a deviation from normal, defined by social norms. Cognitive biases, which occur unconsciously, have been studied in psychology; Kahneman (2011) presents multiple types and examples, summarizing decades of research. In this research we used a practical approach developed by the Neuroscience Institute called the SEEDS Model® (Lieberman et al., 2015) to help people identify, interrupt, and mitigate unconscious biased thinking. ...
Conference Paper
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Construction projects rely on the people in the project team; people are selected to perform their role satisfactorily in the project and contribute to its success. However, the selection in the hiring process has different biases that are often not perceived by those who decide to hire people. This research aims to present a study applying the Choosing By Advantages (CBA) Tabular method for the hiring process of a new team member, aligning the structure of the selection process with the five phases of the CBA system. The selection process is divided into two parts to reduce bias in decision-making: the first preliminary part uses information associated with objective data from the applicants' CVs without knowing their identities. The second part complements information knowing their identities obtained from personal interviews. In this research, we use a practical approach called the SEEDS Model®, represented in five categories of biases present in everyday thinking (similarity, expedience, experience, distance, and safety). Furthermore, the results demonstrate that CBA and SEEDS Model® help reduce bias in the selection process and choose people for their attributes representing their capacities, avoiding bias in the selection.
... This requires that the safety of decision-making be brought more explicitly into the system safety engineering process in a manner that it never was previously. In recent decades there has been extensive research on evaluating the process of human decision-making (such as [10], [11], [12], and [20]) and work assessing the human-robot collaborative space (such as [14] and [6]), however these do not help to address the challenge of autonomous decision-making, per se. ...
Article
We characterise an autonomous system as one that has the capability to take decisions independently from human control. This independent and autonomous decision making could give rise to new hazards or hazard causes not present in an equivalent human-controlled system, e.g. through lack of human real-world understanding. Despite the increased adoption of autonomous systems there has been a dearth of research in the area of safety analysis and assurance of decision-making for autonomous systems. This paper is intended to be a first step to fill this gap. We compare and contrast the differing causal models of autonomous and non-autonomous systems, and build on existing safety engineering techniques in order to define a process (Decision Safety Analysis) for the analysis of autonomous decision-making. We show, using a real-world example, how this process supports the development of safety requirements to mitigate hazardous scenarios.
... Analytic thinking is an index of function words (e.g., articles, prepositions, pronouns) that ranges from 0 (low on analytic thinking) to 100 (high on analytic thinking), and describes how people are communicating instead of what they are communicating about (Chung & Pennebaker, 2007;Pennebaker et al., 2014). High scores tend to reflect dispassionate, cold, and formulaic speech similar to System 2 processing (Kahneman, 2011), whereas low scores tend to reflect a story or narrative (Markowitz, 2022;Seraj et al., 2021). These data suggest dehumanizers tend to think in more formal and hierarchical ways compared to humanizers. ...
Article
This paper introduces the concept of deceptive (de)humanization, the internal belief that an outgroup is less-than-human while dishonestly acknowledging aspects of their humanity for impression management purposes. In a large online experiment ( N = 1,169), participants wrote about their false or truthful opinions on an outgroup they perceived as more evolved or less evolved. Following several automated text analyses, the data indicated psychological differences in attention through word patterns. Consistent with prior work, deceptive texts contained fewer self-references and more negative emotion terms than truthful texts, and dehumanizers used more negative emotions than humanizers. New evidence suggests those who wrote deceptively about evolved groups focused the most on negative emotions compared to other participants. This work extends deception and dehumanization theory by investigating how such psychological constructs interact, and how they are reflected linguistically as communicators attempt to manage impressions and maintain a positive self-image.
... This perspective reinforces harmful stereotypes, setting lower expectations for minoritized groups that become self-fulfilling prophecies [20]. This bias can occur unconsciously and is difficult to inhibit [18,34,63], locking readers into a tunnel vision that leaves more complex (external), but widespread, systemic problems unconsidered and unaddressed [17]. ...
Preprint
Visualization research often focuses on perceptual accuracy or helping readers interpret key messages. However, we know very little about how chart designs might influence readers' perceptions of the people behind the data. Specifically, could designs interact with readers' social cognitive biases in ways that perpetuate harmful stereotypes? For example, when analyzing social inequality, bar charts are a popular choice to present outcome disparities between race, gender, or other groups. But bar charts may encourage deficit thinking, the perception that outcome disparities are caused by groups' personal strengths or deficiencies, rather than external factors. These faulty personal attributions can then reinforce stereotypes about the groups being visualized. We conducted four experiments examining design choices that influence attribution biases (and therefore deficit thinking). Crowdworkers viewed visualizations depicting social outcomes that either mask variability in data, such as bar charts or dot plots, or emphasize variability in data, such as jitter plots or prediction intervals. They reported their agreement with both personal and external explanations for the visualized disparities. Overall, when participants saw visualizations that hide within-group variability, they agreed more with personal explanations. When they saw visualizations that emphasize within-group variability, they agreed less with personal explanations. These results demonstrate that data visualizations about social inequity can be misinterpreted in harmful ways and lead to stereotyping. Design choices can influence these biases: Hiding variability tends to increase stereotyping while emphasizing variability reduces it.
... However, general audiences reading articles online are likely not equipped with the resources to conduct statistically rigorous meta-analyses. Consequently, they might rely on heuristics to filter sources to answer their questions and be more susceptible to cognitive biases when synthesizing information [5,43]. ...
Preprint
Scientific knowledge develops through cumulative discoveries that build on, contradict, contextualize, or correct prior findings. Scientists and journalists often communicate these incremental findings to lay people through visualizations and text (e.g., the positive and negative effects of caffeine intake). Consequently, readers need to integrate diverse and contrasting evidence from multiple sources to form opinions or make decisions. However, the underlying mechanism for synthesizing information from multiple visualizations remains underexplored. To address this knowledge gap, we conducted a series of four experiments (N = 1166) in which participants synthesized empirical evidence from a pair of line charts presented sequentially. In Experiment 1, we administered a baseline condition with charts depicting no specific context where participants held no strong belief. To test for the generalizability, we introduced real-world scenarios to our visualizations in Experiment 2, and added accompanying text descriptions similar to on-line news articles or blog posts in Experiment 3. In all three experiments, we varied the relative direction and magnitude of line slopes within the chart pairs. We found that participants tended to weigh the positive slope more when the two charts depicted relationships in the opposite direction (e.g., one positive slope and one negative slope). Participants tended to weigh the less steep slope when the two charts depicted relationships in the same direction (e.g., both positive). Through these experiments, we characterize participants' synthesis behaviors depending on the relationship between the information they viewed, contribute to theories describing underlying cognitive mechanisms in information synthesis, and describe design implications for data storytelling.
... Heuristics are in essence problem solving strategies designed to reduce the cognitive effort involved in a decision [27,29]. Heuristic processing is often "fast and frugal", in the sense that it ignores much available information and prioritizes a quick satisficing decision [12,30]. In this way, fast and frugal heuristics allow for decision-making, however imperfect, to continue in the face of adversity [29]. ...
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Twitch users watched over 1.2 billion hours of streaming video in a single month in 2020, with the vast majority of these hours devoted to videogames. The most popular streamers who create this content are often powerful influencers in a rapidly growing industry, and many industries now see videogame influencer marketing as a key aspect of their marketing mix. However, while some streamers have amassed incredible popularity on Twitch, the factors that drive live-streaming viewership remain poorly understood. This study empirically examines a large population of Twitch streamers to explore this existing gap in the current research and explain how potential viewers make the decision to patronize a Twitch streamer. Using panel data on the actions and characteristics of Twitch streamers combined with other sources, the study identifies the heuristic cues most associated with successful Twitch streamers. Ultimately, the study identifies and evaluates multiple heuristics around Twitch content delivery practices, with significant implications for any live-streaming context.
... The reader may realize that we are using language that approximates that of "thinking fast and slow" byKahneman (2011). In a separate interview with Meng Tin, she acknowledged that she was indeed influenced by Kahneman's different systems of thinking and she was seeking opportunities to train students to switch to a "think slow" mode at suitable junctures. ...
Article
While reports of teachers’ use of curriculum materials are common, that of teachers as designers of their own materials are far less so. We argue that these (rare) instructional materials, defined as materials that are classroom-ready and that carry the teachers’ actual instructional goals, are ‘objects’ that are suitable as records of teachers’ planning and learning when developed alongside professional development. We provide supporting evidence of this claim and unpack the complexities of interacting instructional goals through a case study of a teacher who (re-)designed her own instructional materials as she participated in professional development. From the findings of the case, we reflect on the educational and methodological implications of pursing this research approach.
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Researchers recognize the affinity of habits-as-heuristics and habits-as-routines. This paper argues that the affinity should not be surprising, as both kinds of habits are the outcome of rational choice. The paper finds that the dual process theory, once reconstructed as based on rational choice, reveals that the affinity runs deep, as threefold parallelism: i) the cognitive economy responsible for habits-as-heuristics parallels what this paper calls the "physiological economy" responsible for habits-as-routines; ii) the occasional slipup of heuristics generated by the cognitive economy parallels the occasional slipup of routines of the physiological economy; and iii) the breakdown of heuristics of the cognitive economy parallels the breakdown of routines of the physiological economy. The rationality-based dual process theory can explain-whereas the single process theory cannot-why slipups do not induce the decision makers to abandon the pertinent habit, but breakdowns do.
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The identified victim effect is the phenomenon that people tend to contribute more to identified victims than to unidentified victims. Kogut and Ritov (2005a) found that the identified victim effect was limited to a single victim and driven by empathic emotions. In a pre-registered experiment with an online U.S. American Amazon MTurk sample (N = 2003), we conducted a replication and extension of Experiment 2 from Kogut and Ritov (2005a). The replication findings failed to provide empirical support for the identifiable single victim effect hypothesis since we found no support for differences between willingness to contribute for a single identified and for a single unidentified victim (η2p = .001, 90% CI [0, 0.003]). Extending the replication, we investigated a boundary of the effect - group belonging. We found support for an ingroup bias in helping behaviors and indications for empathic emotions and perceived responsibility contributing to this effect. Materials, data, and code were made available on: https://osf.io/9qcpj/
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Clinical decision-making is an integral part of the nursing process, as well as a study requirement at Master's level for the advanced professional practice pathway. This article uses Gibbs' reflective cycle as a framework to explore a clinical decision made in practice. Through presentation of a case study of a patient with an adjustment disorder, the authors explore the process of prescribing appropriate treatment in the context of an uncertain evidence base. The authors will examine decision-making and communication theories and consider any biases, as well as ethical, organisational and professional factors that may influence the decision-making process. The individual and organisational steps needed to embed robust decision-making into practice will be discussed.
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Development agencies, including UNICEF, has for long pioneered in Communication for Development (C4D) and therefore, stood as a catalytic lead in playing fulcrum to design, programming, implementation and creating evidence for children, young people and women. The discourse has recently transformed to Social and Behaviour Change (SBC) with an emphasis on 'behavioural insights'. It shall bear a significant impact on mitigating child marriages across the region, including Bangladesh. Child marriage is an accepted practice across communities in Bangladesh albeit in varying degrees. It necessarily requires effective partnerships, sustained community mobilization, empowerment of adolescents for bringing marked changes in individual, family and community behaviours through active engagements with and exposure to the multiple communication tools. Drivers for child marriage are usually common in Bangladesh, and are anchored in the social, structural and systemic features of a patriarchal society, which invariably oppress women and girls as a second-class citizen and promote gender inequality at all stages. The current desk-based qualitative analysis, regardless of its limitations, confirms that SBC interventions designed to maximize community collaboration and participation can have a beneficial impact on mitigating child marriages in Bangladesh. Introduction Communication for Development (C4D), recently re-christened as the SBC (social and behavioural change), is construed as the set of strategic interventions enshrined with equity, that are rights-based and foster accountability-driven principles of community engagement and ownership in promoting positive behaviours in children, young people, women and men through focused communication and mobilization methodologies in attaining overall development objectives. Integral to this approach is thorough understanding of multiple 'risk-factors' which surround individuals, families and communities. It is also understood as diving deep into behavioural-insights. Government of Bangladesh has taken multiple steps for integrating SBC and community engagement as a cross-cutting programme strategy through multiple ministries such as, social welfare, women and children affairs and health and family welfare via progressive policies, plans and practices at all levels of the relevant organizations. Campaign interventions that are designed to address child marriages in Bangladesh have recognized the significance of engagement and ownership of the issue by the respective communities. SBC is a way to giving voices to the people in planning response, inviting local community representatives to take part in monitoring process, discussing findings with communities, and adjusting response design accordingly.
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There are three general philosophical conceptions of how worldviews might impact negotiations—we can call them “meta” worldviews. At one extreme, actors negotiate, and are fully in charge; they can bypass any specific or “micro” worldviews they originally hold; they remain free agents in the final analysis. At the other extreme, “micro” worldviews shape protagonists' words and acts to such an extent that, even unbeknownst to them, they are themselves, in effect, being negotiated upon by the worldviews. In between these two poles, both agency and worldviews impact negotiations and influence protagonists on a continuum with various degrees of freedom. If we acknowledge the impact of “micro” worldviews on negotiators, we can study them as a set of interactive components—sociological, psychological, and biological—that mold the identity of an actor or group. This recognition of the impact of “micro” worldviews does not prevent us from offering proactive platforms to reinforce agency. When two people negotiate with each other they can acknowledge, unilaterally and hopefully jointly, how worldviews inhabit and influence each of them, and still dynamically deploy a series of moves to get things done responsibly across their respective worldviews.
Chapter
Early ‘paradoxical’ findings in decision theory, such as Allais and Ellsberg paradoxes, revealed an existence of preference reversals and non-neutral attitudes to subjective risks that cannot be mathematically depicted with the aid of the formula of total probability. In many decision tasks agents’ decision making is at variance with the classical probability theory, underpinning the standard economic models of rational thinking. In this paper we evaluate in more detail the decision making contexts pertaining to non-consequential reasoning, and how these instances of non-classical preferences can be described and quantified with the aid of alternative frameworks based on quantum probability theory. We also evaluate the implications of asset prices and their deviations from fundamental values that can lead to emergence of excess volatitility. Finally, we consider the major challenges to a unified quantum-likeframework of thinking and deciding under uncertainty and risk and elaborate on some successful solutions.
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The dual-process theory that two different systems of thought coexist in creative thinking has attracted considerable attention. In the field of creative thinking, divergent thinking (DT) is the ability to produce multiple solutions to open-ended problems in a short time. It is mainly considered an associative and fast process. Meanwhile, insight, the new and unexpected comprehension of close-ended problems, is frequently marked as a deliberate and time-consuming thinking process requiring concentrated effort. Previous research has been dedicated to revealing their separate neural mechanisms, while few studies have compared their differences and similarities at the brain level. Therefore, the current study applied Activation Likelihood Estimation to decipher common and distinctive neural pathways that potentially underlie DT and insight. We selected 27 DT studies and 30 insight studies for retrospective meta-analyses. Initially, two single analyses with follow-up contrast and conjunction analyses were performed. The single analyses showed that DT mainly involved the inferior parietal lobe (IPL), cuneus, and middle frontal gyrus (MFG), while the precentral gyrus, inferior frontal gyrus (IFG), parahippocampal gyrus (PG), amygdala (AMG), and superior parietal lobe were engaged in insight. Compared to insight, DT mainly led to greater activation in the IPL, the crucial part of the default mode network. However, insight caused more significant activation in regions related to executive control functions and emotional responses, such as the IFG, MFG, PG, and AMG. Notably, the conjunction analysis detected no overlapped areas between DT and insight. These neural findings implicate that various neurocognitive circuits may support DT and insight.
Chapter
In a world challenged by increasingly complex crises, a sound understanding of reality and high quality learning become crucial elements for strengthening children and making societies more resilient and fit for the future. This chapter argues that outdoor learning—even given the fact that quite a few aspects of it are under-researched—can play an important role in contributing to the kind of learning the twenty-first century needs. Outdoor learning enables cumulative, fundamental fostering of learning in multiple dimensions, such as academic learning, social interaction, personal development and well-being, mental, physical and social health, creativity, and much more. It is an add-in approach, easy to integrate into normal schooling, at very low cost. It therefore should be very high up on the agenda of any decision maker who is concerned with the future of our education systems. The chapter elaborates why the reminder of the book is a toolbox for just such decision makers in education authorities, teacher-training universities, schools and research institutions, to systemically embed outdoor learning in their respective practices.
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Participation in educational activities is an important prerequisite for academic success, yet often proves to be particularly challenging in digital settings. Therefore, this study set out to increase participation in an online proctored formative statistics exam by digital nudging. We exploited targeted nudges based on the Fogg Behaviour Model, highlighting the relevance of acknowledging differences in motivation and ability in allocating nudges to elicit target behaviour. First, we assessed whether pre‐existing levels of motivation and perceived ability to participate are effective in identifying different propensities of responsiveness to plain untailored nudges. Next, we evaluated whether tailoring nudges to students' motivation and perceived ability levels increases target behaviour by means of a randomized field experiment in which 579 first‐year university students received 6 consecutive emails over the course of three weeks to nudge behaviour regarding successful participation in the online exam. First, the results point out that motivation explains differences in engagement as indicated by student responsiveness and participation, whereas the perceived ability to participate does not. Second, the results from the randomized field experiment indicate that tailored nudging did not improve observed engagement. Implications for the potential of providing motivational information to improve participation in online educational activities are discussed, as are alternatives for capturing perceived ability more effectively.
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We study the impact of deliberation on intertemporal choices. Using multiple experiments, including a field study in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, we show that the introduction of waiting periods—a policy that temporally separates information about choices from choices themselves—causes substantially less myopic decisions. These results cannot be captured by models of exponential discounting nor present bias. Comparing the effects of waiting periods to making planned choices over future time periods, the former has a larger impact on reducing myopia. Our results highlight the role of deliberation in decision-making and have implications for policy and intervention design. (JEL C93, D12, D83, D91, O12)
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It is widely accepted that individual happiness is not, or not solely, related to material possessions, at least once basic needs are fulfilled. It has been demonstrated that interpersonal relationships and social capital matter too, and people whose values are more centred on material possessions have a greater probability of being less happy. Is this still true during the COVID-19 pandemic, when interpersonal relations, health and economic security are threatened and feelings of insecurity emerge? This is the issue that we address in this paper. We exploited the unique natural situation of the pandemic and lockdown in Italy to investigate the relationship between happiness and relational and material goods. Data collected by questionnaire during the lockdown suggests that the main direct effect of the pandemic on the happiness of respondents was related to the effect of the pandemic and lockdown on interpersonal relationships. Those who declared that COVID and lockdown had jeopardized their interpersonal relationships were significantly less likely to report higher levels of happiness, especially when controlling for other personal and contextual covariates. An important gender, religious and town size effect also emerged. Moreover, relational goods and good health were considered to be the most important determinants of happiness, though people were not so worried about their own health.
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Constructivism as a distinct metaethical position has garnered significant interest in recent years due in part to Sharon Street’s theory, Humean metaethical constructivism. According to Street’s account, practical reasons are constructed by individual valuing entities. On this view, then, whether a particular reason applies to an individual is completely contingent upon what that individual actually values. In this article I argue for the recognition of multiple sources of practical reasons and values, including both individuals and communities. The resulting view, which I call layered constructivism, strengthens the constructivist project and begins to resolve some of the common critiques leveled against Street’s Humean constructivism. To begin, layered constructivism retains many of the benefits of Street’s approach, such as providing a naturalistic picture of normativity and maintaining a close tie between practical reasons and individual motivation. Moreover, the inclusion of collective sources of normativity and the importance of the resulting values for individuals is supported by recent empirical research on norms. Layered constructivism can also respond to the common concerns that Humean constructivism fails to adequately account for the immense influence our social lives have on our normative reasons and values, and that it entails an objectionable level of contingency. Finally, acknowledging the existence of differently constructed reasons helps us make sense of the pervasive human experience of navigating a variety of seemingly incommensurable normative reasons.
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A large array of randomized controlled trials and meta-analyses have determined the efficacy of Acceptance and Commitment Therapy (ACT). However, determining that ACT works does not tell us how it works. This is especially important to understand given the current emphasis on Process-Based Therapy, the promise of which is to identify manipulable causal mediators of change in psychotherapy, and how their effectiveness is moderated by individual contexts. This paper outlines four key areas of concern regarding ACT’s status as a Process-Based Therapy. First, the relationship between ACT and Relational Frame Theory has been widely asserted but not yet properly substantiated. Second, most of the studies on ACT’s core process of change, psychological flexibility, have used invalid measures. Third, while lots of research indicates means by which individuals can be helped to behave consistently with their values, there is virtually no research on how to help people effectively clarify their values in the first instance, or indeed, on an iterative basis. Finally, the philosophy underlying ACT permits a-moral instrumentalism, presenting several ethical challenges. We end by making several recommendations for coherent methodological, conceptual, and practical progress within ACT research and therapy.
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This report documents the outcomes of an analysis of user behaviour on social media regarding the approval, assessment and evaluation of information and information sources, feeding into the further development of the EUNOMIA toolkit. Both individual and collective behaviour was analysed. On the one hand, there are factors that cause and explain individual behaviour, such as cognitive biases and psychological effects that influence a single person’s behaviour. An example is the so-called truth effect, i.e. the fact that repetition and familiarity with content make it more believable. On the other hand, group effects and social norms additionally influence the individual’s behaviour. Studies have shown that we are more likely to believe a piece of information if our social circles also accept it (Lewandowski et al. 2012; Eckles & Bakshy 2017; Lazer et al. 2017; Sloman & Fernbac, 2018; Karduni 2019). The task of user behaviour analysis included (i) a literature review; (ii) a workshop with end users and experts; and (iii) an online survey. We identified explanations for collective and individual user behaviour in assessing, sharing and distributing (mis)information, building on (i) the theory of cognitive dissonance and the theory of selective exposure; (ii) the third-person effect; (iii) the concept of opinion leadership; (iv) the concept of information gatekeeping; (v) the truth effect; and (vi) explanations for the persistence of misinformation and (vii) audience behaviour. Insights explain, for example, how users on social media tend to surround themselves with information that confirms their own interests, values and beliefs in so-called ‘filter bubbles’ or ‘echo chambers’. Furthermore, we were able to identify strategies to influence or reward preferable behaviour to avoid the spread of misinformation in the form of nudges, building on certain heuristics (i.e., mental shortcuts) and psychological or social effects. We also identified approaches for the correction of misinformation (e.g., providing explanations, targeting opinion leaders), as well as strategies to avoid their spread (e.g., triggering a thinking process before information is read).
Article
Who doesn’t love a magic trick? When we watch magicians perform, we enjoy being fooled by their manipulations and sleights of hand. But when leaders in our workplaces use the same techniques as magicians to further personal agendas, they engage in a special and unique form of falsity. This can be useful in furthering organizational goals and performance, but it can also lead to frustration, dysfunction, and even the collapse of the organization. Drawing on research on the psychology of magic, we explain how business leaders construct “magical processes” that can be used to mislead and manipulate workers in the same ways that magicians trick their audiences. We propose a typology of magic tricks in organizations and introduce the acronym CARD to summarize the four steps in these processes: concealing, attracting attention, retaining attention, and directing behavior. We describe each step, provide illustrations, and explain how managers and employees might detect and defend against each one. Finally, we identify structural conditions that may make organizations vulnerable to magical processes. We hope to improve readers’ ability to detect magic and CARD tricks, and to pierce through to the agendas hidden behind these false facades.
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Purpose: The aim of the article is to describe and forecast possible difficulties related to the development of cognitive technologies and the progressing of algorithmization of HRM processes as a part of Industry 4.0. Design/methodology/approach: While most of the studies to date related to the phenomenon of Industry 4.0 and Big Data are concerned with the level of efficiency of cyber-physical systems and the improvement of algorithmic tools, this study proposes a different perspective. It is an attempt to foresee the possible difficulties connected with algorithmization HRM processes, which understanding could help to "prepare" or even eliminate the harmful effects we may face which will affect decisions made in the field of the managing organizations, especially regarding human resources management, in era of Industry 4.0. Findings: The research of cognitive technologies in the broadest sense is primarily associated with a focus of thinking on their effectiveness, which can result in a one-sided view and ultimately a lack of objective assessment of that effectiveness. Therefore, conducting a parallel critical reflection seems even necessary. This reflection has the potential to lead to a more balanced assessment of what is undoubtedly "for", but also of what may be "against". The proposed point of view may contribute to a more informed use of algorithm-based cognitive technologies in the human resource management process, and thus to improve their real-world effectiveness. Social implications: The article can have an educational function, helps to develop critical thinking about cognitive technologies, and directs attention to areas of knowledge by which future skills should be extended. Originality/value: This article is addressed to all those who use algorithms and data-driven decision-making processes in HRM. Crucial in these considerations is the to draw attention to the dangers of unreflective use of technical solutions supporting HRM processes. The novelty of the proposed approach is the identification of three potential risk areas that may result in faulty HR decisions. These include the risk of "technological proof of equity", overconfidence in the objective character of algorithms and the existence of a real danger resulting from the so-called algorithm overfitting. Recognition of these difficulties ultimately contributed to real improvements in productivity by combining human performance with technology effectiveness.
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