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Climate Change in Portugal: Scenarios, Impacts and Adaptation Measures

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... The country features a diverse topography, ranging from mountainous regions in the north and central areas to rolling plains in the south. Its extensive coastline, stretching over 1700 km [36], also plays a significant role in shaping local climate conditions. This geographic diversity, combined with the influence of the North Atlantic Ocean, results in distinct climatic features across the country, making it an ideal region for studying spatial and temporal patterns in temperature extremes. ...
... The climate of mainland Portugal is predominantly Mediterranean, characterised by mild, wet winters and hot, dry summers, though significant variation exists between coastal and inland areas. Coastal regions tend to experience more moderate temperatures due to maritime influence, whereas interior areas at higher altitudes, face more extreme temperature conditions, with hotter summers and colder winters [5,36]. In some southern inland regions, summer temperatures frequently exceed 40 • C , while winter temperatures in mountainous areas (e.g., Serra da Estrela, Figure 1a) can drop below freezing [36]. ...
... Coastal regions tend to experience more moderate temperatures due to maritime influence, whereas interior areas at higher altitudes, face more extreme temperature conditions, with hotter summers and colder winters [5,36]. In some southern inland regions, summer temperatures frequently exceed 40 • C , while winter temperatures in mountainous areas (e.g., Serra da Estrela, Figure 1a) can drop below freezing [36]. ...
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This study examines the trends in heatwave characteristics across mainland Portugal from 1980/1981 to 2022/2023, utilising ERA5-Land reanalysis data. To achieve this, the study applies the Heatwave Magnitude Index (HWMI) to identify heatwave days for minimum (Tmin) and maximum (Tmax) temperatures across 15 grid-points representing Portugal’s diverse geography and climate. Three key annual parameters are analysed: the number of heatwave days (ANDH), the average temperature during heatwaves (AATW), and the intensity of heatwave events (AIHD). Results reveal a consistent increase in heatwave persistence throughout mainland Portugal, with more pronounced trends observed for Tmax compared to Tmin. ANDH Tmin shows upward trends across all grid-points, with increases ranging from 0.8 to 4.2 days per decade. ANDH Tmax exhibits even more significant increases, with 11 out of 15 grid-points showing statistically significant rises, ranging from 2.2 to 4.4 days per decade. Coastal areas, particularly in the south, demonstrate the most substantial increases in heatwave persistence. The intensity of heatwaves, as measured by AIHD, also shows positive trends across all grid-points for both Tmin and Tmax, with southern locations experiencing the most significant increases. The study also discusses decadal trends in annual averages of Tmin and Tmax, as well as extreme measures such as annual minimum (AMIN) and annual maximum (AMAX), daily temperatures spatially represented across mainland Portugal. These analyses reveal widespread warming trends, with more pronounced increases in Tmax compared to Tmin. The AMIN and AMAX trends further corroborate the overall warming pattern from the heatwave analyses, with notable spatial variations observed. The findings indicate a substantial worsening in the occurrence, duration, and intensity of heatwave events. This increased persistence of heatwaves, especially evident from the early 2000s onwards, suggests a potential climate regime shift in mainland Portugal. The results underscore the need for adaptive strategies to address the growing challenges posed by more frequent and intense heatwaves in the region.
... These simulations are based on scenarios following in several projects, with particular focus on the KNMI Climate Change model endorsed by IPCC (Figure 2). The results reveal significant impacts on the region with a high level of uncertainty, consistent with findings in both the national Douro region and Spain, as reported in other studies (Fortes et al., 2022;Guerreiro et al., 2017;Santos et al., 2002). These impacts include a projected decrease in average annual precipitation of 15-20% by the end of the 21st century. ...
... Additionally, seasonal variations in precipitation show a 30% increase during winter, but a decrease of up to 75% during summer for the period 2071-2100. Furthermore, there is an expected increase in average air temperature ranging from 2°C to 6°C by the end of the 21st century (IPCC, 2021;Santos et al., 2002). ...
... The SIAM project -Climate Change in Portugal: Scenarios, Impacts, and Adaptation Measures (SIAM I and II) -which concluded in 2002, identified several effects and impacts of climate change on water resources (Santos et al., 2002). These include four related dimensions: water availability, water needs, risk of extreme hydrological events and water quality. ...
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The Douro international region in Portugal is vulnerable to reduced water availability due to climate change. By using spatial data, it is possible to synthesize the hydrometeorological effects in the medium and long term on water storage volume. Given the importance of the Douro River for hydroelectric power generation in Portugal, it is crucial to ensure that adaptation strategies align with international agreements that provide guidelines for managing trans-boundary water resources.
... Com base no projeto Cenários, Impactos e Medidas de Adaptação (Santos et al., 2002;Santos & Miranda, 2006) ...
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O mundo faz-se de mudanças, de inovação, de resposta a desafios. As transições digitais, ecológica e para a sustentabilidade, aliadas a fenómenos globais mais ou menos imprevisíveis tornam cada vez mais evidente a necessidade e importância do conhecimento como suporte à tomada de decisão. Neste processo, a Geografia assume um papel central. Este foi o mote para organizar um livro sobre os desafios geográficos da gestão territorial, analisando a evolução recente e os caminhos para a sua implementação plena em Portugal. Esta obra pretende ser uma ferramenta de apoio ao planeamento e governação do território, considerando as recentes dinâmicas sociais, económicas, culturais e ambientais em Portugal, bem como a necessidade de políticas públicas mais eficientes e no âmbito do Plano de Recuperação e Resiliência, do Portugal 2030 e dos Objetivos de Desenvolvimento Sustentável da Agenda 2030.
... Com base no projeto Cenários, Impactos e Medidas de Adaptação (Santos et al., 2002;Santos & Miranda, 2006), iniciado em 1999, com o objetivo de realizar a primeira avaliação integrada da vulnerabilidade e da adaptabilidade às mudanças climáticas em Portugal durante o século XXI, podemos referir que séries temporais da anomalia da temperatura média (diferença em relação aos cenários de controle) na Península Ibérica, obtidas a partir de vários modelos climáticos globais (MCG), mostram claramente uma tendência crescente e um aquecimento significativo durante o século XXI. O aumento da temperatura na Península Ibérica na última metade do século XX é da ordem de 1 °C, o que é comparável com as observações climáticas. ...
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O mundo faz-se de mudanças, de inovação, de resposta a desafios. As transições digitais, ecológica e para a sustentabilidade, aliadas a fenómenos globais mais ou menos imprevisíveis tornam cada vez mais evidente a necessidade e importância do conhecimento como suporte à tomada de decisão. Neste processo, a Geografia assume um papel central. Este foi o mote para organizar um livro sobre os desafios geográficos da gestão territorial, analisando a evolução recente e os caminhos para a sua implementação plena em Portugal. Esta obra pretende ser uma ferramenta de apoio ao planeamento e governação do território, considerando as recentes dinâmicas sociais, económicas, culturais e ambientais em Portugal, bem como a necessidade de políticas públicas mais eficientes e no âmbito do Plano de Recuperação e Resiliência, do Portugal 2030 e dos Objetivos de Desenvolvimento Sustentável da Agenda 2030.
... The arising threats from climate change, namely those resulting from the rise in the mean sea level, as well as the increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme events, leads to the increase of the hazardous processes related to coastal areas mentioned above (Bertin et al., 2013). In terms of wave climate, the coast of mainland Portugal, particularly the west coast, is characterized by a high energy regime strongly influenced by the northwest swell (Andrade and Freitas, 2002), being among the most active and vulnerable coastlines on the European Atlantic facade, presenting high values of coastal drift (Santos et al., 2014). Related to the wave climate arises the regime of storms which Portugal is subject annually and which cause different impacts. ...
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